Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 11/12

by: Crisitunity

Fri Nov 12, 2010 at 2:11 PM EST


AK-Sen: All signs are pointing to Lisa Murkowski winning this race, and joining Strom Thurmond in the won-a-Senate-write-in-race club. At the end of yesterday's counting, which took us up to nearly half of all the write-in votes analyzed, the state Division of Elections is reporting that nearly 98% of all write-ins are being successfully counted for Murkowski. Even the rate of challenges, even if they were all successful (and few of them are), is inadequate for Joe Miller to make up all the needed ground (he'd need to shave off 12%, and isn't even challenging at quite that rate). 45,132 write-ins have been analyzed so far, and only 1.52% have been successfully challenged by the Miller camp. Seemingly realizing the gap can't be made up, the Miller camp, while still harping on the spelling issue and keeping that line of argument alive, is now turning to nebulous claims of voter fraud as their next line of attack, threatening a second potential lawsuit. His team is setting up a voter fraud hotline for people to report fraud, voter intimidation, and voter bullying. (Kind of a strange angle to explore, when you're the campaign that has its own paramilitary goon force.)

HI-Sen: The Republican bench in Hawaii basically begins and ends with outgoing Gov. Linda Lingle. As far as her running against octogenarian Dan Akaka in 2012, she says she's going to take six months off from thinking about politics, and then give the race some "serious consideration" at that point.

IN-Sen: Baron Hill is also looking for work in a few months, and he's one of the biggest names on the Dems' bench in Indiana. However, even with his potential choice of running for the Senate, for Governor, or his old seat in 2012, it sounds like he doesn't plan on any of those.

MO-Sen: Could we see a 2006 rematch in the 2012 Senate election in Missouri? Ex-Sen. Jim Talent seems to be prepping toward that, with GOP operatives saying he's "furthest along" of all potential challengers to Claire McCaskill, who beat him in 2006. Other potential GOP names include ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (who's probably likelier to run for Governor in 2012), and Ann Wagner, wealthy person (former RNC vice-chair and Ambassador to Luxembourg, the kind of goodies doled out to itinerant rich donors) and former campaign manager to Roy Blunt.

ND-Sen: Jeremy Jacobs lists a few possible challengers for Kent Conrad, who looks vulnerable after Republicans ran up the score in North Dakota this year. Mentioned are Jack Dalrymple (the Lt. Governor, who's about to become Governor once John Hoeven resigns, although he may be likelier to run for a full term as Gov. in 2012), AG Wayne Stenehjem, and Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk.

Chicago mayor: And here I thought I was done with having to laboriously type out "Alexi Giannoulias" every day, like I have for the last few years. The recently vanquished Senate candidate is now at least considering the idea of pivoting over to the Chicago mayoral race, presumably under the principle of striking while the iron is hot in terms of his name recognition and donor base. He's getting urging from several anti-Rahm Emanuel aldermen. (UPDATE: OK, scratch that. A Giannoulias spokesperson now says no, he's not running for mayor.)

DSCC: I think we've gotten closer to getting someone willing to hold the burning bag of dog doo than we have so far: Harry Reid personally asked Michael Bennet to lead the DSCC next cycle, and Bennet "didn't say yes and he didn't say no."

DCCC: Dan Boren is moving the anti-Nancy Pelosi push to a new front: demanding that the position of DCCC chair be up for a true vote by the whole caucus, not a de facto appointment by leadership. He's being seconded in the effort by Larry Kissell, of all people (the same guy who got $1.7 million in DCCC aid this cycle after stinking it up on the fundraising front, and may be worried that another Pelosi ally might cut bait with him next time and make him catch his own fish). It's not clear who they'd rather see than likely chair Steve Israel, especially since they both had praise for departing chair Chris Van Hollen.

Redistricting: Guess who's leading the push for Utah to switch to a independent redistricting commission, instead of it being done by the heavily Republican legislator? Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson, who may figure he'll be given an even worse version of UT-02 in 2012 than he currently has. (Interestingly, there's the possibility that a commission might give him a worse district, though; it's also possible that a GOP gerrymander might decide to concede a swing seat to him (probably the best Matheson could hope for) and go for three safe GOP seats, instead of risking a push for a 4-0 map.) Also on the redistricting front, here's a good overview from Real Clear Politics' Sean Trende, who goes state-by-state with possible outcomes.

WATN?: Ashwin Madia (whom you probably remember for losing the MN-03 race in 2008) is taking over the helm for VoteVets for the time being while its current head, Jon Soltz, is deployed to Iraq. Also in the news is Andy Dillon, who lost the 2010 Dem gubernatorial primary after being termed-out as state House speaker. Turns out the centrist Dillon is crossing the aisle one last time: he just signed on as state Treasurer at Rick Snyder's request (it's an appointed position in Michigan).

Money: When they write the tale of the 2010 election, the role of the Chamber of Commerce (and other third-party GOP backers, but especially the Chamber) will probably loom a lot larger in retrospect than it does right now. The Chamber spent $32 million, almost entirely on GOP candidates. The Fix also takes a look at self-funders, and calculates how much they spent per vote. The biggest fail was probably Linda McMahon, spending $97 per vote in a losing effort, outpacing Meg Whitman who spent only $57 per vote to lose by a similar margin (albeit for a much bigger price tag overall). Rick Scott spent "only" $29 per vote to win; the biggest bargain may have been Ron Johnson, who won spending only $7 per vote (although he did a lot of conventional fundraising too). In House races, Tom Ganley spent $29 per vote to lose ignominiously; the biggest spender was the victorious Scott Rigell in VA-02, at $30 per vote.

Post-mortem: If you're still feeling down about last week's losses in the House and need some rationalization about it, here are a couple pieces that don't really try to put a happy face on the results but still show how very predictable the whole thing was. Alan Abramowitz, certainly no mindless cheerleader for the Dems, points out some of the ways in which it was something of a mile-wide, inch-deep victory for the GOP. And while the teeth-gnashing that accompanies the graph is worth a read too, here's a piece built around an amazing scatterplot from John Sides that shows how Democratic House candidate performances tracked presidential preferences district by district.

Maps: If you're tired of looking at glitzy, state-of-the-art political maps, here's an amusing look back at the New York Times' earliest attempts at mapping the nation's political geography, going back as far as 1896. (As you might expect, their graphics capacity has evolved considerably.)

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/12
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Burning bag!
Funny, Crisi.

Why is the DSCC a "burning bag of dog doo"?
Sure, this cycle was rough... But it could have been far worse. If Nevada, Colorado, Washington, West Virginia, and Delaware hadn't gone our way, we'd be looking at a tea-nut run Senate right now.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


I think it's more about 2012
than 2010. I believe we'll have 23 seats up, while the Republicans will have just 10. So it has the potential to be a very challenging job.

[ Parent ]
Well, unlike the House
things are likely to only get worse in the Senate this cycle regardless of the political climate, based on where we're playing defense and where we're playing offense (the latter being Massachusetts and Nevada and, well, that's it).

[ Parent ]
A thought
Presumably, there'll be a lot of low-hanging fruit in the House for the Democrats in 2012, with lots of Tea Partiers in moderate districts... Is there any chance (probably small) that we could see the Democrats re-take the House but lose the Senate?

I think that'd be pretty unprecedented, and kind of hilarious.


[ Parent ]
We need 25 to win it back I think
I remember a daily digest about how there are 50 Republicans in districts that Obama won.  If we split the difference there we could do it, but it's still very unlikely unless we see a dramatic shift in the economy.

[ Parent ]
Many of these districts
have rather strong Republican tradition, and voting results of 2008 may easily be "one-time wonder": Obama was very popular then, while Bush and republicans in general - absolutely no. So, i don't see that it's will be so easy to win even half of them - more likely about 1/4...

[ Parent ]
I'd argue that AZ is gettable
Some forget, but Brewer was on the path to losing her gubernatorial primary before that SB 1070 fiasco.  I suspect that's the main reason she was re-elected.  After seeing her one debate, and it's horrible performance, I have a feeling she won't be too popular in 2 years.

If the AZ electorate starts turning sour to the GOP, then we have a real shot at AZ-sen, I mean, Kyl didn't win too convincingly (53%) over a no name opponent in 2006.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Ehh, maybe...
But it won't happen unless the tide is strongly pro-Dem or unless Kyl gets involved in a scandal.

There was a libertarian candidate though that took 3 percent of the vote in AZ in 2006.

53 ain't great, but another way to look at it is that Kyl won by ten points (53-43) in a wave year where Republicans only won the white vote nationally by four points.

I'm pretty sure the white vote is going GOP in '12.


[ Parent ]
And by at least double digits...


[ Parent ]
Where do you get these
"facts" that you seem to throw around at will regarding an election that is in two years?  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
A couple of places
A) History - Seeing as how the GOP never did worse in a presidential race with only 2 major players than they did in 2008 and still won the white vote by double digits, it's probably a fair bet that the GOP will do at least as well as in 2008 when a perfect storm knocked them off course.

B) Reality.  If a Democrat is favored for a senate race in Arizona then (barring a candidate scandal) the national climate for Republicans will have to be worse than it was in 2008.

Also gut instinct - the same sort of thing that leads Democrats to claim around here that Obama is favored in NC because somehow he'll generate more of the black vote.  The fact that whites constitute 70 percent of voters in NC and weren't at all organized by the McCain camp seems to be forgotten by liberals who hopefully assert similar "facts" favorable to Obama and the Democrats.


[ Parent ]
It is funny because I
do distinctly remember McCain/Palin campaigning and spending money on ads and mobilization efforts in North Carolina. I know this because my best friend went to one of the rallies to protest Palin.

Turnout in the state was about 64 or 65% which is not a low number.  AA turnout was crazy at about 74-75%. Also black women had the highest voter turnout in the country at about little bit less than 70%.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
Which begs the question
How much can you improve on 74 or 75 percent?  I'll genuinely tip my hat to Obama for his mobilization efforts.  He saw two states, NC and IN, and he and his campaign worked their asses off to drive up turnout.

Why couldn't the GOP drive up rural and/or evangelical turnout as well.  From a numbers game, they have more folks to work with - at least for now.

Obama, for good ill, has seen his newness wear off.  Now, he can work to get his new supporters out - but the "excitement factor" isn't going to be the same as it was in 2008.

It's pretty widely accepted that McCain (stupidly in my view) cut back on GOTV efforts in lieu of more television commercials.  The GOP GOTV and organization in NC wasn't zero - but it was nowhere near the Dem effort.

2008 was a 50/50 split between McCain and Obama.  I have to believe that even a bit more work on the GOP side, coupled with a something less than seven-point edge for Democrats nationally has to give the GOP at least a leg up.

I don't know what the climate will be like for Democrats or Republicans in 2012 - but I do know that if the GOP is fighting to hold down NC on Halloween - they've already lost.  


[ Parent ]
Black voters...
support Obama now even more; call this the "Tea Party" factor. If it were not for the crazy attacks on him from the right, he might not be as popular with the black community.  

But we are circling the wagons because of the ugliness and the lack of call out on it.  There is even an article in Essence (a black woman's magazine) about this in this month's issue.  And trust me, Allen West and Tim Scott do not change anyone's mind about how the Tea Party really feels about us.

 

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
I don't doubt it
But the Tea Party wasn't there for McCain...and they're surely fired up now.  Bush did better in 2004 than McCain in 2008 because of less black turnout - but also because of Independents.

Black voters are fired up.  Tea Party conservatives are fired up.  What's going to be decisive is just how much Obama's support have cratered among whites.  

In 2004 Bush got 72 percent of the white vote.  In 2008, McCain only got 64 percent.  It's a given that blacks will be energized (but again I'd question just how much MORE the share of the electorate can possibly increase).

Bottom line - if whites in NC vote like they did in 2004, then the Republican candidate wins NC.  If whites vote like they did in 2008 - Obama will win NC.  


[ Parent ]
Rural GOTV
By being rural it makes GOTV much harder. Dems can have volunteers go door to door and knock on 15 doors an hour, Republicans in rural areas would need cars and still would hit what 5 doors?

GOTV in rural areas doesn't work well. Bush in Ohio was seen as the best Republican 48 Hour GOTV program in history and it's effect was minimal compared to Obama in 2008 AND Bush really just had a evangelical outreach program (and that has now been tapped out by Republicans).


[ Parent ]
Agreed, Brewer is a machine of awful
If it weren't for SB 1070, she would have had an extremely close race.  I think she would have won, but a 5% margin is the ceiling I'd predict.

[ Parent ]
eh, make that 7%
It was a bad year, obviously.

[ Parent ]
Kickback scandal in 3...2...1
I bet she gets canned before re-election because of a scandal involving kickbacks with 1070. I bet somewhere she has stocks in AZ prison companies like the state senator who wrote the bill does.

Either that or she'll be an unpopular governor that has to be primaried (primaryed?) out for Republicans to have any chance at holding the seat.

Also, does anyone else think Giffords could really challenge Kyl?


[ Parent ]
She
can't run for a second term. The state constitution is very conservative about serving no more than eight years. And she already served two of Napolitano's terms so she will be ineligible to run in four years. Thank gosh.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
The demographic ice
keeps thinning for Republicans in Arizona.  I'm guessing they're not running on goodwill so much as benefit of the doubt with their swing voters at this point, so their election margins are a bit deceptively large.  The Arpaio machine will have its instrumental uses but it can't be increasing Republican respectability or credibility.

They're prolonging their stay in power by finding exploitable resentments, enjoying the bumbling and inferiority of the Arizona Democratic Party leadership, and getting lucky that the Obama campaign got scared off or didn't bother to fight for votes there in '08.

When the tipping Blue comes it will be an amusing and wholesale Republican collapse to watch.  But every election that, maddeningly, seems at least another two or four years down the road.


[ Parent ]
It seems
that Arizona is basically where California was 15 years ago. I can't wait to watch the Arizona Republican Party implode, and then I can seek refuge there en route home to California when I escape Texas next year.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I hope so
I love the Southwest- I used to live in SoCal and travel across the Colorado whenever I could- and hope to see its liberation from the Right.

Southwestern Republicans are a blight on the landscape and so many of them are a nauseating moral horror.


[ Parent ]
Arizona is more conservative than California was 15 years ago......
White voters in Arizona today are as a whole much more conservative than white California voters in 1994.

Arizona has a long way to go before Republicans are in trouble there like in CA.  And I think even if Obama is in the 50s in job approval and winning reelection comfortably, AZ will be a tossup at best, perhaps still lean R.  Yes he would've won there in 2008 against non-AZ Republican, but 2008 also had some Democratic "grade inflation" from being a national anti-Republican wave election.  I think AZ is lean R in a non-wave year.

It's interesting to me how there's a correlation across the states where the higher the nonwhite vote share, the more conservative and Republican white voters are.  In some cases white conservatism preceded the rise in nonwhite population, but in a lot of cases I think there's racial resentment that drives it.  Certainly that's true in the South.  Georgia is 30% black and black voters were 31% of the 2008 total, and they voted almost unanimously for Obama, and yet the state was too tall a hill to climb.  This is the case in a lot of states for Democrats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Arizona is becoming more competitive.
There was no active campaign in Arizona like there was in Colorado, so there's really no way to judge exactly how things would have turned out. McCain almost certainly would have won the state, but if Obama had contested it like any other swing state, the margin would have been smaller almost by default. And Obama did slightly worse in Arizona with white voters and a lot worse with Latino voters--about ten points, at least, if exit polls are accurate--than he did nationwide. Simply matching his share of the Latino vote in Arizona that he got nationwide would have added a point or two to his total. All of this is with a home state advantage that the Republicans won't have next time.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Agree on all points, but that still doesn't make it like CA 16 years ago......
Obama might very well have won AZ in 2008 had anyone but McCain been the GOP nominee.  But that doesn't make it somehow less conservative than it is; it's still more conservative than CA in 1994.  After all, Barbara Boxer already was a Senator then!  Some with her politics and persona can't win statewide in AZ today.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I wasn't disagreeing
on that point. I just think it's probably more competitive now than you think it is. I'm not sure if some of these states will ever be as solidly Democratic as, say, New York or California, and if they aren't, it's for the reasons you said. But it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see a Democrat pulling in the low fifty percent range with enough white support and enough Hispanic support. The latter is probably easier than the former, unless there's something unique about Hispanics in Arizona that makes them harder for Democrats to get.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Going that way...
Rising hispanic rates will make that highly probable in AZ, CO, NM and TX. By 2016 AZ, CO and NM will all be reliable Dem states with TX becoming a swing state in 2016 and being reliably Democrat in 2024.

[ Parent ]
CO and NM are one thing
I don't think AZ will be reliably blue in 2016. Probably a swing state. At the very best I'd say it'd be a slightly-blue-leaning swing state like MI or PA, but even that seems like a bit of a push.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
you're assuming
Latino voters continue to vote Democrat at current rates.  

[ Parent ]
Why wouldn't they?
Do you have any evidence to suggest that the Latino voting block is moving away from us? They are one of the main reasons Bennet and Reid won and are the reason Boxer and Brown won by such large margins. I see no evidence to suggest they are moving away from us, in fact I think they are moving even more forward towards us.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
All the evidence says Hispanic support for Dems has remained constant for generations......
There is variation in the strength of our Hispanic support from office to office, state to state, and cycle to cycle, but we as a rule we can count on winning Hispanic support in a given election in the 55%-75% range.  More narrowly, most races we get 60%-70%; anything higher or lower is an outlier.

And that was true this cycle, as it was in 2008, in 2006, in 2004, and so on, going back to long before my lifetime, maybe through all of American history.

Hispanics broadly support the idea of government as a problem-solver, and that is source of our party's strength with them.  All the talk of immigration law is a distracting sideshow; while it's an important issue to Hispanics, and far more important to them than to any other voters, it's not a bottom-line explanation of Democratic strength with Hispanics.

And really, the difference between people of color broadly and a majority of white voters is just that simple idea:  government as a problem-solver.  A majority of white voters buy the Reagan pablum that government is the problem, not the solution.  Most people of color disagree, particularly since so many of us see a straight line between government action and our quality of life.

And that is why the demographic shift in America benefits the Democratic Party long-term.  Some Republicans recognize that, but most don't.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Agreed without a doubt
In New Mexico, Democrats count on the Hispanic vote for victory, calculate any statewide race and you'll find that Democrats in the state have to have a coalition that is close to (if not over).

No disrespect to desmoinesdem, but, if memory serves, she's been one of the ones mentioning Marco Rubio as the the GOP's solution to their Hispanic problem. Rubio has no appeal to Mexican-Americans, and if he did somehow get the Republican nomination come 2016, I'd be pretty damn amused to watch Rubio lose the Hispanic votes in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, and California by at least 20 points (it'll be even funnier listening to the talking heads wonder how it happened that Hispanics didn't blindly vote for the dude with a Spanish-sounding last name!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
"No name opponent"?
The no name opponent, Jim Pederson, was chairman of the state Democratic party for four years before the race, and had ties to the Clintons.  He was a pretty decent recruit at the time.  He spent around $10 million (2 mil of his own) to get that 43%.    

[ Parent ]
Ok, so he was head of the AZ democratic party for 4 years
I'm very plugged into CA politics, but I can't tell you who is head of the state party.

After googling it, I find that the chairman of the CA democratic party is John L. Burton.  I have NEVER once heard of him before, and I would suspect the same would be true to many AZ voters for the head of the AZ dem party.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
John Burton is a good guy
And his late brother Phil Burton was a great guy.

[ Parent ]
John Burton is even more central than even Jesse Unruh in CA Dem politics
I'm surprised you've never heard of him.  The guy has been key to the CA Democratic party since just after the dawn of time.

I doubt Pederson is 1/10th as well known or influential.


[ Parent ]
John Burton is a former Assemblymember, State Senator
   and member of the House of Representatives. He represented CA-06  before Boxer held it. Lynn Woolsey has served there since Boxer went to the U.S. Senate.

  His late brother Phil Burton is a CA political legend who represented the San Francisco based House district. Had a few breaks gone his way he could have been the first House Speaker from S.F. rather than Pelosi.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
Chairman = horrible recruit
I think being a party leader is a HORRIBLE position to run from. You're clearly a political insider who has connections to every scandal in that state in the last decade and you have not ever been elected by anyone in that state.

I think it's the ultimate insider position and means that the Dems couldn't get a class A, B or C candidate in. This is just about sheriff (which only works for regional positions or AG) or County Executives or just a rich businessman.  


[ Parent ]
But that was said about the GOP in 2009...
things are likely to only get worse in the Senate this cycle regardless of the political climate

Remember, the GOP had more seats to defend this year... And look what happened.

Plenty can change in 2 years. Obama's crushing "mandate" soured this year, but it can improve in the next year, especially if the GOP overplays its hand in the 112th Congress.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Agree completely
For the Republicans it's almost better that they didn't quite get the senate.  It's tougher for Obama to run against congress when the upper house is still run by his party.

Any legislation the GOP tries to pass will fail in the senate unless there is enough public support to allow McConnell to co opt the likes of Nelson, Manchin, Landrieu and Pryor.

Speaking of Pryor - he's got to be hoping that Obama loses in 2012.  Because if Obama wins, Pryor is up for re-election in Arkansas in 2014 - which is going to be Obama's second mid-term year.


[ Parent ]
On an eight year cycle theory
the 2014 elections should actually be very good for Democrats.

[ Parent ]
What is your eight-year theory?
If Obama wins, 2014 should be pretty bad for the Democrats.  If you go through the election results for House and Senate, every single president since FDR saw their party lose loads of seats in their second mid-term election.  Clinton is the only exception.

[ Parent ]
It's more or less
the idea that one Party wins the midterm election, then wins the Presidential year election by arguing that it is capable of meeting some need that has arisen and the other Party isn't.  Between the two elections that Party usually wins both chambers of Congress (or at least holds the initiative in them) and the Presidency.

About a year after winning the Presidential year election the Party in power has enacted what the elections gave it mandate to do- and it is pretty much expended, unwilling or unable to do any more.  Its support falls during the next year.  And it loses the midterm election.  The other Party then does likewise the next four years, making it eight years in all to go a full cycle.

Here are the last 20 years:

1990+1992: conservative D's win control of Congress, Clinton (D) President

1994+1996: conservative R's win control of Congress, Clinton (D*) President

1998+2000: moderate D's win control of Congress**, Bush (R***) President (dubious win)

2002+2004: Rightist R's win control of Congress, Bush (R) President

2006+2008: centrist (or center Left) D's win control of Congress, Obama (D) President

2010.....: reactionary R's win control of House

=======

* in 1996 Clinton "triangulated", i.e. ran as if he were a conservative Republican on the campaign trail.

**  D's don't win majority in the House but the 1998 election defeat forced Gingrich to resign, in whose absence Tom DeLay engineered the impeachment debacle which backfired badly on him and House Republicans.  The failure of which was the final act of the Gingrich Revolution.  Daschle benefited from the impeachment failure with a big gain to a stalemate in the Senate in the 2000 elections and then majority control after the Jeffords defection.

*** in 2000 Bush ran as if he were a moderate Democrat on the campaign trail.

The pattern works nicely for 1966/68, 1974/76, and 1978/80.  Reagan mucked up things with his big win and coattail effect in 1984 but Republicans in effect lost the seats they ought to have lost in 1984 in 1986.  So the pairings become 1982+1986 the successes for Democrats and 1984+1988 the successes for Republicans.

People talk of a partisan "pendulum swing", but that's a side effect of the way Partys use up their mandates fast after Presidential elections.  Other than the process squeezing 90% of the legislative action into one year out of four, the rate of change in the world is very large at the moment.  New obstacles/problems arise very fast, so when a Party gets the country over the obstacles and troubles that the election was about, the next serious set of them is already coming into view.  And the incumbent Party simply isn't (and perhaps can't be) adequately prepared for much more than the matters the most recent election focussed on.    


[ Parent ]
Pryor likely won't be in trouble.
Blanche Lincoln's issue is that she became overtly visible on her "brave" stance on health care reform, pissing everyone off.  Pryor, on the other hand, is an easygoing backbencher who never makes waves.  Also, he's a member of the Family, so they probably have a network to help him out if he needs it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Lincoln
probably would of had a tough race this year, but her grandstanding on HCR killed it for her.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
agreed
during a cycle where the electorate hates everyone who makes the papers, being that politician wasnt a good idea.

[ Parent ]
Considering that the Republicans won nearly every race they contested in Arkansas
from Senate down to the state legislature, I wouldn't be too quick to assume Pryor is doing fine.

[ Parent ]
That's because
it was a bad year.  Arkansans are majority-democrat, but are nonpartisan voters, not yellow dogs(hence the reason why Huck could win three terms).  Despite everything, the Dems still hold solid majorities in the state Legislature and the governor's office.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The
Huckster only won two terms actually. He took over for part of a term after the incumbent Governor resigned.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Only because Republicans did't bother to run more candidates
It seems to me - they won every state Senae race this year, where they ran candidate, and more then 80% of analogous state House races...

[ Parent ]
As I said in another comment.
It was a bad climate, low turnout for D's, and the inherently more nonpartisan nature of AR Dem voters.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
We shall see
So far i expect republicans to make proper conclusions from this year results, running "full slate" in 2012 and winning legislative control in the state.

[ Parent ]
In 1982 midterms
the Dems surged and won control of legislatures in 34 states.  People said that it was a major rebuke to Reganomics and the Republican Party.  Guess what, the pendulum swung back.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Pendulum ALWAYS swings back - nothing new in that
But sometimes - it takes very long time.

[ Parent ]
Yup, but another factor that helps Pryor is...
...he identifies as an evangelical, which gives him a cultural bond with conservative whites that Lincoln didn't have.  Pryor touted his Bible-thumping in his own TV ads when he beat Tim Hutchison.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
He
even said he didn't believe in evolution straight to Bill Maher's face....on camera.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Wow, scary
At least he's not being a dick about it unlike other bible thumpers in congress, but scary that a senator would say  that.

[ Parent ]
Not exactly...
It's tougher for Obama to run against congress when the upper house is still run by his party.

But down in the lower house, Boehner is already huffing and puffing over all the things he wants to do. If he forces a government shutdown a la Gingrich '95 and Dems are ready to lay all the blame at his feet, the national narrative can quickly turn on a dime. Remember that it did for Bill Clinton in 1996.

And as we saw this year, most voters don't care to hear about the specifics of who runs what and how this or that works. If something is happening that they don't like, sh*t will fly. And if Dems smarten up in the next few weeks and lay the groundwork to blame Boehner for any budget fiasco next year, 2012 will be a much different story from 2010.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
It's easy for Obama to run against the House
and this will probably ensure his reelection.

The secret of modern politics: support a popular idea, and lose

The oppisite of this is how Dems bungled the past two years.  They passed lame bills that hardly anyone liked, let alone could explain.  If Obama had proposed a public option and only a public option, it would have lost, even as the majority of the country would have been supporting him.  Now he is free to propose all kinds of good, clear, popular stuff, and have it die in the house.  

Nothing can "work" anyway as long as there is gridlock and the wars continue to destroy the economy, so successful politics the next two years will be getting the people onto his losing side.


[ Parent ]
I imagine it's entirely possible
to thwart the Republicans in a lot of ways, label them the Do Nothing Congress and then reap the benefits for him and his party. The problem is, Obama seems to negotiate by making concessions from the outset, so I could unfortunately see him agreeing with the Republicans on some issues just because.

I'm fine with the fact that he's not as liberal as I would like on some issues. I may not like it, but nobody is perfect. I just can't get over the fact that someone who showed so much promise is having such issues when the proper response seems so obvious. He's supposedly the sort of person who thinks for the long-term, and if that's the case, perhaps he's confident in a situation where the Republicans destruct, the Democrats take congress back and continue on repairing the damage, or something along those lines. I think he's been a fine president, and while I agree it's better to be a good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president, I don't understand why he'd sacrifice the chance to serve two terms and leave a great one. Yet, on some days, that seems like exactly what he is doing, and for no good reason.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
With an economy like we have now
a government shut-down I would think piss people off more than after 1994.  People want things fixed, not for politicians to be dead-locked and not even able to pass their own budget.  The Dems just need to be ready to blame the GOP right away and have some sort of proof of having offered an olive branch with the GOP being assholes.

[ Parent ]
Dollars per vote
Tommy Sowers spent $1,231,956 through mid-October for at least 56362 votes. $21.86 per vote

Although John Dennis (challenger to Nancy Pelosi) spent $1,833,264 through mid-October and got at least 29446 votes. $62.26 per vote.

Not sure how much money Sowers burned on direct mail fundraising, but that's where a lot of Dennis' money went.

Also, West Virginia official results coming within the hour.

And the official precinct results for my part of MO confirm that turnout plummeted here, to the tune of 54,000 voters who turned out in 2008 who didn't return in 2010. A drop from 171K to 117K. Including drops from 976 to 493 in one precinct, 599 to 368 in my precinct, 997 to 539 in a third, 643 to 359 in a fourth. Obama won 1898-1239 in those 4 precincts, Roy Blunt won 838-786 in those same 4 precincts. Weirdly enough, the strategy of constantly sending people to precincts which swung against us instead of the precincts that supported us did not lead to many votes getting out. Stunning!


correction
186K people voted in 2008, I didn't have the absentees in for 2008. So it's a drop of almost 70K.

And it'd get uglier if we had the KC results in, because KC's turnout was below 40%. Despite all the hype and attention about the OFA power to GOTV... it did not happen what so ever in KC or STL.


[ Parent ]
DSCC Talking Points Memo is reporting that Reid has asked
Bennett who has yet to say "yes" or "no"

"Bennett"?
Do you mean Michael Bennet?

[ Parent ]
Bennet
Personally I think he would be a good logical choice. He isn't up for election in 2012, he won a tough race recently, he was able to raise a good amount of money in his race and he is a fresh face that seems ambitious to move up the ladder. His biggest challenge would obviously be to start protecting those running for election in 2012 as there will be few people to recruit in 2012 and most of the top-tier would be challengers to GOP held seats are likely sitting House members such as Capauno in MA and Berkeley in NV.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
I guess this means
that Schumer has dug in his heels about refusing to return for a third round at the DSCC. Too bad.

The link seems to imply (I think) that Murray and Tom Udall are the follow-ups.

Bennet is likely best choice of those three.


[ Parent ]
Hey jeffmd, Have you forgotten about Kamala Harris?
We need an updated CA AG projection diary! Please!
People have been posting update comments, but scattered through various digests all week.

The overall picture is really confusing, since the counting and reporting (or non-reporting) is all by the individual counties with their individual websites.

FWIW, here is what the CA SoS has at the moment:
Harris (Dem) 3,955,738 45.7%
Cooley (Rep) 3,975,095 45.9%
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns...


What I can tell you has happened since the last SoS update:
1. +5000 for Harris in Sacramento (a Cooley district, so this is big).

2. +4200 for Cooley in Shasta (7400-3200, big Cooley district)

3. +1700 for Harris in San Francisco (2200-500).

4. +3000 for Harris in Alameda (out of just 4300 ballots or so).

5. About +500 for Cooley in Orange, I think (out of 8000).

Nothing new from LA, Contra Costa, San Diego, Santa Cruz (though we know the two latter will update this afternoon).

Twitter.com/Taniel


[ Parent ]
How's LA county going; she was really under-performing there with the unprocessed ballots
Though that's Cooley's home base and since he's the three term LA County DA, I suppose it's not surprising

[ Parent ]
LA hasn't updated since...
... the count early this week that had her net just 9000 out of 130,000 or so. But a lot of what remains is provisional ballots. Not sure when they're updating next.

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
SoS website finally updated
And Cooley is now leading by less than 15,000, which is what we obtained based on the results I listed above. It should change a lot in coming hours.

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
Woot!
14,174 to be exact. And lots is still outstanding in Contra Costa, LA, Marin, Sonoma, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, no?

[ Parent ]
I second the request for a new CA AG update
Everything is scattered, and I have no idea how this race is going, though I if what is said above my comment is right, I am moderately optimistic.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Those numbers
They aren't based on projections or on reporting; counties update their results on their own pages - you should expect updates this afternoon from Santa Cruz, San Fran, Orange, San Diego, so people can check it out directly on each counties' page if the SoS website is still not updating.

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
"Serious consideration"
If Daniel Akaka is stubborn enough to run for reelection in 2012, when he'll be 88, we'll need to give "serious consideration" to primarying his ass.

Tell that to Feinstein here in California
Only its much harder to primary a Dem incumbent in California. She'll be 80 in 2012. Sorry Dianne, but when i'm going to vote for the first time, i don't want to vote for you.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Wait - weren't you previously saying,
relative to HI-01, that incumbents in Hawaii hardly ever lose?

Personally, I think Akaka would be a sure thing.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I did say that
And I'm glad I was wrong.

[ Parent ]
My only hope is the he doesn't retire
and let jerkass extraordinaire Ed Case have a shot at being Hawaii's next senator.  Even then, Lingle would have a good shot at winning that seat. which is arguably worse.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Lingle left office with underwater approvals (per the exit poll)
With Obama at the top of the ticket, Lingle doesn't have a prayer.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
If he doesn't run
for reelection what about Mazie Hirono or Colleen Hanabusa? Or are there other top tier options?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Hirono would be fantastic
And then Hanabusa can have Inouye's seat and HI can be a fabulous state with two women Senators.  And I feel confident enough in predicting that that is exactly how it will go down.  Case is a problem, and will be for awhile at age 58.  Many have said here that Asian women in HI tend not to respond to pollsters and that seemed to bear true.  This may be stressed even more if they are able to vote for an Asian woman as the candidate.

[ Parent ]
Just too keep Case out of the senate
they should just let him take one of the house seats. Who know's maybe he will be better a second time around.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Probably Hirono
Hanabusa just got in and Hirono would have the leg up I think.  There is the possibility both run but I doubt it.  If Inouye retires in 2016 then much more likely both will run, but in 2012, it's too soon for Hanabusa to try to move up.

As for other top-tier options, well there are plenty of ambitious Dems with statewide profiles.  Mufi Hannemann and Ed Case are probably the two biggest names after Hirono that are likely to run, but heck we'll probably see some notable state Senators and city councilmen considering it as well.

The GOP has Lingle, and pretty much nothing else but Lingle.  Even then she's damaged goods, having dragged down Duke Aiona with her unpopularity, and has little good to run on except she's really bipartisan, which Hawaii is not in the mood for.  She'd lose by 10% given any competent campaign by Hawaii Democrats.


[ Parent ]
Would Mufi Hannemann or
Ed Case have a chance against Hirono?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
How possible is that?
Isn't Akaka pretty much an institution in Hawaii? Will any prominent Dem want to take up that task?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Case primaried him in 2006, so it's not totally without precedent n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Why?
Because he's too old?  Plenty of Senators keep running until they die in office.  If you have a problem with his voting record, please point out a bad vote he made.

Akaka is a backbencher, true, but he's been a reliable vote and a decent politician.  I see no reason to try to force him out.


[ Parent ]
He has a fine record on national & international issues
I have problems with aspects of his record on local issues, such as sugar subsidies and this nutzoid pseudo-separatist stuff.

[ Parent ]
But, then, I'd say that about virtually anyone from Hawaii.


[ Parent ]
you're referring to the Akaka Bill
as the "pseudo-separatist" stuff?  Well, I'd suggest you read up more about it.  It's nothing different than what Native Americans already have.  The entire congressional delegation supports it, both Gov. Lingle and incoming governor Abercrombie support it.  And oh yeah, president Obama.

I really don't get the knee-jerk opposition to the Akaka Bill.  If you think it's a plot by separatists who want Hawaii to secede from the USA, you should listen to actual members of the sovereignty movement here.  They flat out OPPOSE the Akaka Bill because to them it legitimizes the overthrow of Hawaii's monarchy and subsequent annexation by America.  To them, the bill doesn't go far enough to actually give Hawaiians the right of self-governance.

So if you're lumping in people like Lingle and Abercrombie with the outright secessionists, you clearly haven't read too much about the Akaka Bill.


[ Parent ]
Being like Native Americans on the mainland?
What a great role model!

[ Parent ]
ok
unless you are implying that the federal status of Native Americans is responsible for their endemic poverty and all the sociological trends that go with it, I don't see how your sarcastic response makes sense.  But then again, maybe I shouldn't expect any more from opponents of the Akaka Bill, I often hear people say the same thing in different ways...that the Akaka Bill is going to put Hawaiians on reservations, that it's going to make us poor, etc...

I'm not sure if you're aware of this or not, but native Hawaiians already have it pretty bad.  We are 20% of the population of Hawaii, but comprise half of the prisons...we have lower incomes, less of us finish college or even high school, higher rates of disease and infant mortality...

and this is all without federal recognition as an indigenous native people.

Anyway, I know swingstate isn't an issue blog, so I'll let up.  As far as elections go, pretty much every elected politician in Hawaii is in favor of the bill as well as most of Congress, even when Republicans controlled both houses under Bush.  The problem is just getting the time for a vote on a local issue like this.  Waging a campaign against the Akaka Bill isn't likely to garner much votes in Hawaii.  When Ed Case primaried Akaka and the campaign turned towards the Akaka Bill, Case's argument was that he could do a better job of getting the bill passed than Akaka.


[ Parent ]
An 88 year old backbencher should be replaced
That should go without saying.  This is the United states senate, not the "reliable vote backbencher club".

A 44 year old backbencher is one thing, as is an 88 year old statesman.  But the state, party and country needs vibrant, dynamic leadership... not dudes who push the right button on voting day.


[ Parent ]
In his defense
Thee is a long history of Congressmen and Senators from small, remote states who see themselves less as legislators and more as ambassadors from their states. If he sees his job description as protecting the sugar industry, the tourism industry and the ports he's probably achieving his goals.

[ Parent ]
well
all I'll say is there's a significant chance his replacement will be more centrist.

[ Parent ]
No, it doesn't "go without saying," and to me it doesn't go at all......
There's nothing wrong with a Senator serving at 88, or 98, even 108 as long as (s)he can do the job.

I'm perfectly happy if Akaka runs again.  I'll be happy if all our incumbents run again; force the Republicans to try to beat them, instead of giving them open seats to play in.

Akaka himself is very popular and will win reelection in a walk.  That's one less seat to worry about.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Rejoin the real world please
"as long as (s)he can do the job" is not being wheeled up to push a button someone tells you to push.

And in case you haven't been paying attention to current events, mid term vacancies offer a lot to worry about.  Any sensible Democrat would want this seat contested by a younger Democrat in 2012 with Obama on the ticket so as to establish that person for the next 20+ years.


[ Parent ]
DCCC Heads "Comeback" Recruits?
Whoever ends up getting the DCCC job is going to have a big fun task in recruiting challengers. This cycle several GOP challengers came back and won back their old seats like Fitzpatrick, Bass, Wahlberg, Pearce and Chabot while several 08 challengers came back to win their 10 challenge like West, Hanna, Harris, etc. Assuming that redistricting doesn't significantly alter their seat who would be a good potential "comeback" candidates either defeated incumbents or defeated challengers? My quick thoughts with a 2 strikes and you're out rule (Dan Seals and Joe Garcia this means you) in no particular order would be:

1. Patrick Murphy
2. Manon Trivedi
3. Ami Bera
4. Ron Klein
5. Frank Kravotil - this one I am quite confident redistricting would help him out a lot

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


I would say in addition to Patrick Murphy
1. Tom Perriello!
2. Ann McLane Kuster
3. Dina Titus, if redistricting weren't such a question mark
4. John Salazar
5. a lot of the NY'ers: Hall, Bishop, Murphy, Maffei

[ Parent ]
Driehaus v. Chabot round 3
He only lost by 7 after being left for dead in Rob Portman's back yard.

Another good round three would be Walberg v. Schauer.


[ Parent ]
Dreihaus surprised the shit out of me
I should have followed the numbers, but I wouldnt have been surprised if he got under 40%.  He deserves another go.

[ Parent ]
OH-01 Redistricting
He got elected in 2008 due to massive African American turnout due to Obama. With Obama on the ballot in 2012, he could win the old OH-01. That assumes though that the Ohio GOP doesn't realize this when drawing OH-01.  

[ Parent ]
They know
GOP's problem in Ohio is that they have been too successful.  It would have been better for the entire group of Republican congressmen if one Democrat held on - so that all the Dem votes could go somewhere.

It's going to be tough to shore up all of the new Republicans without any adjacent Dem districts.


[ Parent ]
If they take away too much Dem territory
Its bye bye mean Jean!  or maybe Boehner will get some competitive territory.

[ Parent ]
Schmidt's actually been surprisingly reserved
After her "cowards cut and run" controversial remarks a few years ago we haven't heard much from her.

But yeah, looking at the Ohio map it's going to be tough to sustain all those congressional districts for more than a few cycles.


[ Parent ]
Except when she recently
told a class of elementary school students (in disgusting detail) what an abortion is and the details of the medical procedure involved.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Touche
You're right.  I forgot about that one.

[ Parent ]
...and she got caught on tape revealing she's a birther......
A racist birther (redundant terms) constituent complained to Schmidt that Obama wasn't born here, and Schmidt's response, a one-on-one discussion not remarks in a microphone, was that she agreed, but that the courts don't.

Schmidt does quite well embarrassing herself on a regular basis, she hasn't abated that much.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
there's a really easy solution to that
A squiggling district that stretches from Columbus to Cincinnati. Someone posted it here. D+10 at least

That singlehandedly protects everything around it, and probably lets them eliminate 2 districts in northern Ohio.


[ Parent ]
Dina only has one shot here...
IF (and this is a big IF) progressives in the party get antsy again over "The Reid Machine" running the party and organize a challenge to whomever the power players "anoint" to run for the new NV-04 seat (and I can especially see this if John Oceguera runs), Dina Titus may be able to return to Congress IF (and again, this is a big IF) she can unite labor, LGBTQ, women, and greenies behind her. That's probably her only chance, and again it's pretty slim.

Otherwise, a host of Dem insiders (again, like Oceguera and Barbara Buckley) are already salivating over the new soon-to-be-designed NV-04 seat.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Seems to me she has three shots
with NV-4 the third choice.

Run for Berkley's seat if she runs for Senate; run for Senate if Berkley does not; run in the 4th


[ Parent ]
The first two aren't happening...
If Shelley Berkley runs for Senate (and it's looking more likely she will), State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford will probably take NV-01 as his one way ticket out of Carson City and into DC. He will likely have the power players' blessing to run.

And if Shelley doesn't run, Secretary of State Ross Miller or Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto probably will. They both won their respective reelection bids handily, so they've already proven statewide viability and they can easily woo the power players to pick them over Dina.

IMHO her one best shot, and it's a long shot at that, is with the new NV-04 seat. I know some grassroots progressives aren't too enamored with John Oceguera (new State Assembly Speaker) and are a bit disillusioned with Barbara Buckley (former State Assembly Speaker), so Dina Titus'  best and only hope is that Democrats in the new NV-04 seat will remember their love for her and snarl if the party establishment tries to clear the field for Oceguera. And in the event that a ConservaDem like County Commissioner Steve Sisolak runs, Dina may have an even better opportunity to lead a primary revolt. (Real primary fights hardly ever happen here in Nevada these days, but a ConservaDem like Sisolak running may be enough to rile up progressives to fight.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Kratovil
I'm not sure if he'll be liberal to win a primary in the new district after redistricting. They can make MD-01 58%+ Obama if they want to, and I suspect they will

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Louisiana House gets GOP plurality with party switch
http://mobile.nola.com/advnola...

It already has a GOP Speaker: still, this is the first time it has been fully in GOP hands since Reconstruction I believe.  The Semate is still Dem so we do have some presence at the redistricting table.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Lousiana is a lost cause for Dems (besides NOLA)
I gave up on my home state years ago.  My family has a lot of real property there in a small town about 100 miles from NOLA (500 acres +/-) and I am willing to will it or sell it all to my relatives still living there for about $1.

They are mad a Jindal for his education and healthcare cuts but they express this anger by voting in more Republicans.  The state is really almost as red as MS or AL now.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
Louisiana deserves the government they get
When David Vitter, the most despicable person in the Senate today, can get re-elected by almost 20 points, with over 70% of the white vote -- well, LA deserves the government they get.  After everything Charlie Melancon has done after the oil spill, he still lost every single coastal county, and solidly lost his own Congressional district.  Louisiana is a lost cause.

[ Parent ]
Very true...
remember that this is the state that voted for Edwin "I was convicted 7 times but never indicted" Edwards for governor for four terms. I did not like him and did not vote for him (until he ran against David Duke). I am a Democrat through and through.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...


[ Parent ]
mmmmhhhmmm, Vitter is downright deplorable
What a "Bible Belt" state.  It could have at least have been in the 13%-10% range to make me satisfied.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter much
Prescence at the redistricting table in Louisiana really doesn't change anything.

It goes 5-1 under any scenario.


[ Parent ]
It can matter on the margins a bit
LA-2 is going Dem, LA-1 and LA-5 GOP, and LA-7 almost certain GOP.  But as late as 2008 LA-4 and LA-6 were very competitive.  It's not completely unreasonable with good candidates in a good Dem year they can be again in their present state, but if some of the very heavy GOP parts of neighboring districts are moved in forget it.

Let me give a more concrete example: LA-6.  Unlikely to be competitive for a while but you never know.  However, if part of Baton Rouge is moved into LA-2 forget it.  If Dems are able to keep Baton Rouge together amd move some red territory into LA-2 while still keeping it maybe 55% black then they have a small outside shot at LA-6 someday while keeping LA-2 still safe Dem.  But if the current plan to move some of Baton Rouge's black areas into LA-2 goes forward then Dems will be likely stuck at 1 district no matter what, unless LA-4 goes well.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I guess that's possible
http://rosereport.org/20091124...

The 2nd Congressional district covers the city of New Orleans.  It borders the very conservative 1st district to the North as well as the moderate 3rd district to the South and West.  This district was devastated by Hurricane Katrina, and the population is down by more than 100,000 people since 2004 (when it was 586,900 compared to its current population of 469,200).  The district's population is down by around 169,000 people since 2001 when its population was around 638,425 (the approximate population numbers for each Louisiana district after redistricting in 2001).  The district was drawn in 2001 as a Voting Rights Act African American majority district, since Katrina, the population of the district has gone from being 67% African American (392,800 African Americans out of a total population of 586,900) to 58.8%.  The population has gone from being 29% white pre-Katrina (172,500 whites out of a total population of 586,900) to 35.1% white post-Katrina.

With a target of 740k, you're going to need 370k black people at least, and its likely that the LA Senate Democrats want a bit more to prevent any Joseph Cao  shenanighans. Currently they're at about 275k black people.

With the 3rd likely to be broken, its Republican areas are likely to enter the 6th and 7th.


[ Parent ]
Yep
I had been hearing this since election day that we would take control soon. Also, in the state senate, Sen. John Alario, who built much of the Democratic party in LA, is considering a party switch.  

[ Parent ]
Both chambers were/are expected to go
to Republican majority after the elections next fall.  Probably the same in Mississippi, also next November if not before, and likewise in Arkansas in November '12.

Which leaves West Virginia and perhaps New Mexico as the last states in which Old Democrats are hanging on to power.  I wonder for how much longer.

The post-Civil War phase in The South is coming to an end.  As a region it's undergoing one more strong intensification of its, er, regional traditions in the form of Republicans.  But that comes along with a capping of its moorings in the Past- imho the change means it can't or doesn't really want or doesn't really need to resist modernization anymore.



[ Parent ]
Dems actully have a very big majority in the Mississippi House
It's 74-47.  I don't think a switch is inevitable.  And for what it's worth the Mississippi Senate switched, then switched back.


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
And NM is a totally different story


[ Parent ]
True
but that doesn't mean the danger has passed or the trend has ended/reversed.

The Alabama state House seems like the closest reasonable comparison.  It went from 60D/43R/2I to 43D/62R this election, a loss of 17 out of 105 seats.  (That 'realigned' the chamber/collapsed Democrats to the roughly 60%R/40%D generic national partisan split of the state.)



[ Parent ]
New Mexico?
I have never heard of New Mexico being considered a lost state for Democrats?  

[ Parent ]
It isn't

Its state Senate at least- not entirely sure about the state House- is run by Democrats a lot more conservative than their electorate.  Lots of rumors of corruption.

As a pattern, the way voters deal with that when unable to take it any longer is to elect a pile of Republicans in place of problem or right wingish Democrats.  Then they flush the Republicans down/out again after an election or two, when Democrats have cleaned up their act and the conservative wing/establishment have definitely lost the fight for control.  It doesn't mean "lost for Democrats" but for a while it tends to look that way.


[ Parent ]
yeah
1) Republicans have a plurality right now, but will have a majority soon.

2) Hines said he was considering a run for Secretary of State yesterday, and he switches today. He likely wouldn't win re-election in his district as a Republican. His predecessor switched parties too, then was termed out (and the Republican candidate won 5% in the primary in 2007)

3) The 2nd is gonna go from New Orleans to Baton Rouge, and all the Democrats will wind up there instead of the 3rd or 6th.


[ Parent ]
Redistricting
Redistricting isn't gonna be pretty in alot of these states and who knows if Florida amendments 5&6 survive a VRC lawsuits. So alot of these rematches will have to wait until the new maps are done..

I
think Bennet would be an excellent choice. Glad to see he is being considered. I understand why no one wants it this cycle. Even if they do a good job they will still get blamed as we very well may (slightly better than even odds) lose the Senate. It will be a very rough job. I think he can do well though. I talked about the Hill 2012 news in yesterdays open thread. I speculated that Obama may appoint him to something as he indicated it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

He just said no
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Apparently they're trying to get Murray to do it again.


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Why?
I think she'd be a fine Majority Leader, because she's smart, but she's not a great campaigner and she was not a great DSCC chair last time she did it.

What about Sens. Reed or Wyden? They're very solid and they've got some seniority.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Whats wrong with Murray?
Not a great campaigner? Tell that to Sen. Rod Chandler, or Sen. Don Bonker, or Sen. Linda Smith, or Sen. George Nethercutt, or of course Sen. Dino Rossi.

Even I concede she's not very telegenic, which may be a big part of heading the DSCC.  But she's a tough campaigner and strong fundraiser


[ Parent ]
Oh
well it was nice while it lasted. I really don't want Murray mainly for the reasons Sao wrote above. Not sure who I want, I guess Wyden but I seriously doubt he would take it. He may not have a choice though.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Rick Perry
selected to lead the RGA (again). He lead it during the 2007-2008 cycle.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


What are Daniel Akaka's favorables like?
I know, a few years back, Time rated him among the ten worst U.S. Senators, but that may have even been before his successful '06 re-election bid. The dude is up there in age, and I don't sense the adoration toward him that seems shared toward Inouye. I think Lingle would win Independents going away, but it'd still be tough running as a GOP-er with Obama leading the Dem ticket. Keep in mind, all of Lingle's electoral victories were in midterm cycles, with no presidential nominee atop the Dem line-up.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I'm sure Sen. Akaka will retire...
There's a reason Ed Case didn't run in the Democratic primary for the HI-01 general election. Sen. Akaka is very old, and Case has coveted his seat for a while, tried to primary him last time. Case conceded to the Democratic establishment in Hawaii, they made nice, and now he's going to get what he wants.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Screw that.
I'm not anti blue dog but I really do not want him. He is an ally with Lieberman and a traitor of the rebel alliance, take him away. Have no clue why I did that, I just started typing it and came out and I don't feel like taking it off. Anyway Hawaii is far too liberal to have a jackass like Case.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Case made a smart move
but nothing is guaranteed.  Ed Case made a calculated decision to pull out and endorse Hanabusa, but he knows the Democratic party is not able to just hand him a Senate seat.  He will get challenged if he tries to run for Senate, and will probably lose.

[ Parent ]
Doubtful.
   The Hawaii Democratic party hates Case for the Senate primary challenge and for running against Hanabusa. He did not run against Hanabusa in the primary, because he knew he would lose. I think his career as a Democrat is over.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Also
Lingle has some ugly approvals right now. I don't think she'd crack 40 in a presidential year against a halfway decent candidate. If her approvals were in the 60's she might be able to win in an off year but it would still be very competitive. Think WV this year but with a better candidate than Raese for our side. Hawaii is one of those states that are more hospitable towards electing a Republican Governor than Senator. There are many states like that towards dems and repubs.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Time Magazine
didn't care for him because he's an unapologetic back-bencher.  Which isn't such a bad thing....he votes well (never been one that I disagreed with) and is by all accounts a decent person.  He just doesn't go for the glory the way Inouye does.

Anyway, the Time Magazine hit piece came out before the 2006 primary, and Ed Case tried to use it to no avail.  That primary demonstrated the strength of the coalition that sometimes happens in Hawaii between old-time establishment Democrats and younger progressive voters.  It was enough to easily beat the independent + Republican coalition that Ed Case brought (In Hawaii, primaries are open, and independents and Republicans regularly vote in Democratic primaries which are much more competitive than their own primaries).  

Anyway, Lingle might have been able to beat Akaka had she run in 2006 against him at the height of her popularity, but not nowadays.  Her unpopularity sunk Aiona like a stone.


[ Parent ]
Go Lisa Murkwski!!!!
Seriously, I hope she wins.  Miller is despiccable with his talking about measuring the Senate office for new furnishings and hiring thugs as bodyguards.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Trivia!
Name the states which will have the same governor, senators, and congresscritter(s) next year that they currently have. (Bonus: name the state which may fall into this category...)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Alaska? Montana? Wyoming?Nebraska?


[ Parent ]
Yup, and the bonus?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Hint: it's pending the results of a recount


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
NOT Wyoming...
Wow what a snoozefest of a Gov race that was.  And a GOP Pickup too!  I don't see a recount still pending that could change anything...

[ Parent ]
Whoops, my b, Wyoming is wrong
and the recount is not likely to change anything, but it is a recount nevertheless, so the possibility (however small) of one more state having the exact same governor and congressional delegation remains.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
North Carolina?
n/t

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yup!
Bob Etheridge has requested a recount. He is very likely to lose, but the small chance that he will win exists.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Only states with exact same House Del...
Maine (but new Gov.)
Vermont (but new Gov.)
Conn. (new Sen/new Gov.)
Kent. (recount but new Sen.)
Iowa (new Gov.)
NEBRASKA (all same)
MONTANA (all same)
Wyoming (new Gov.)
Utah (new Sen.)
California (recounts but new Gov.)
Oregon (new Gov.)
ALASKA (all same)

[ Parent ]
Not California
-George Radanovich and Diane Watson, + Jeff Denham and Karen Bass

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Guesses
Alaska (BONUS!!), Montana, and Nebraska.

[ Parent ]
This was already answered, but
the bonus is actually NC. I guess Lisa Murkowski's victory is not technically inevitable, but you know.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Matheson
I really wonder what he's going to do.  Say that the GOP totally screws him over with an R+20 or worse district in redistricting.  Is it possible that he says "screw it" and runs for the Senate instead.  With Orrin Hatch likely to be taken out at the state convention by a random teabagger a la Bob Bennett, if the year turns out to be a democratic one nationally (particularly if Mitt Romney's mormonism contributes to him losing the GOP presidential nod), I could see him having a shot to win the Senate race there.  His district as it is isn't much more liberal than the state as a whole.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Can the Utah GOP really do much worse?
I mean, Salt Lake City HAS to go somewhere.  And wherever it goes Matheson will run in that district, and win.

[ Parent ]
Yes
UT-02 currently has about half of Salt Lake County; the other half is split between UT-01 and UT-03. They can easily split up SLC between the four districts and give one quadrant to each district.

[ Parent ]
heh
I don't think they can do much to Matheson. His current district is R+15 and he won by 5 points in an all time Republican wave year. The state as a whole is R+20 so in theory the worst they could do would be 4 districts all at R+20, and Matheson would probably win those in anything but another Reep wave year. In practice, I would be surprised if the least R district ends up more than +17 or +18.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
One thing you can do is put his residence into an almost entirely new district......
You're right that Matheson has staying power with a lot of center-right voters so that erasing him simply with a stronger Republican PVI is tough.

But what you can do to weaken him further would be to split up his district and put his residence in a district where he's never represented most of the voters.  If he's unfamiliar, that right there hurts him.  He offsets that to some degree from the Matheson name being big in Utah politics, and also from the fact a state with just 3 Congressmen (before reapportionment) is going to offer higher statewide name recognition to all of them.  But still, having to ask for votes from people who've never seen your name on their ballots is harder than asking for votes from people who have.

Of course Matheson can always move into district where he's more familiar to voters, or he can run there without moving at all since there's no district residency requirement and living out of district won't matter to voters who've supported him before.

But I have to think the Utah GOP will look for a thousand cuts to weaken Matheson; they need to get a candidate over the hump against him just one time, and then Utah Dems are gone forever from Congress.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Random Teabagger
Jason Chaffetz is not random teabagger.  

[ Parent ]
He certainly isn't
He's a member of Congress. And by the way, as I recall, he was a real sport on the Colbert Report's "Better Know a District."

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox