Google Ads


Site Stats

VA-11: WaPo Says Fimian Will Concede

by: James L.

Mon Nov 08, 2010 at 9:41 PM EST


Gerry Connolly survives by the skin of his teeth:

Republican Keith Fimian will concede defeat Tuesday in the congressional race in Virginia's 11th district, paving the way for Rep. Gerald Connolly (D) to serve a second term in the seat.

Fimian's campaign has said only that he plans to release a statement about his plans Tuesday, and had not responded to a request for further comment as of this posting. But two sources familiar with Fimian's decision confirmed that he would concede the race, choosing not to ask for a recount.

Connolly leads Fimian by 981 votes -- or .4 percent of all votes cast -- according to the Virginia state board of elections site. That margin entitles Fimian to ask for a recount after state election officials certify the results Nov. 22, but operatives from both parties who monitored the vote-counting process in the week since Election Day said they saw no glaring flaws in the numbers, and no clear path that would enable Fimian to make up the difference in a recount.

We included this race in our predictions contest because we figured it could surprise. From a quick glance at the data, it looks like many of you thought the same. (We'll have to wait for the finalized data to be released before we can announce who gets the babka, of course.)
James L. :: VA-11: WaPo Says Fimian Will Concede
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

VA-11: WaPo Says Fimian Will Concede | 22 comments
And with that
I think he's got that seat for as long as he wants it (so long as he keeps it in his pants).
^^
Interesting....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Seriously, all married politicians need to learn that rule.
If things are looking good, you've got a solid base of support and great future prospects...just keep it in your pants, and things will go along nicely.  You'd think watching the zillionth person in both parties implode over infidelity would teach people a lesson, but it never seems to.
[ Parent ]
I don't think we've had
enough speculation about congressional redistricting, so let me ask, what will his district look like in a few years? How does it compare to the former districts for Boucher, Nye, and Perriello?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Well...
...at this point Democrats at least have the state senate, IIRC.  Being a NoVa district, I would think it would be tough for the Republicans to completely dismantle it without risking Frank Wolf (whose district Obama won 53-46), Eric Cantor (whose district Obama got 46% in), Rob Wittman (whose district Obama got 48% in), and Robert Hurt (who only won 51-47 in 2010 and whose district Obama got 48% and who only got 51% in).

In other words, I think the Republicans will have to concede one, possible two seats in NoVa beyond Jim Moran's.  Otherwise, they risk a dummymander that could seriously screw them over.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
A dummymander would get blocked by the State Senate.
A dummymander is only possible if they held the trifecta, freeing them to overreach.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I was speaking hypothetically.
In any event, I think at minimum, we would get three seats out of Virginia: Jim Moran, Bobby Scott, and Gerry Connelly.  Even then, the Republicans will have problems with North-Central and Eastern Virginia.  There are now two SeVa Republicans with Obama districts.  I'd be worried if I were them.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Since the Dems hold the State Senate.
they can check the House of Delegates if they attempt to screw Connolly over

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Incumbent protection
That's what we'll get.  Smartest thing for the GOP to do is to simply concede the 11th district.  Make it more solidly Democrat.  Then they could (and should) give some of those Republicans back to Wolf in the 10th district.  This would make it more of a 50/50 McCain/Obama district - which would lean clearly though not overwhelmingly Republican in a neutral year.

Some of the solid R turf in the 9th district can be shared with the 5th to prevent a Periello problem from happening again.  Instead of having a 59-40 McCain district (9) and only a 51-48 McCain district (5) - they can split the difference and make two 55-45 McCain districts.

It's tough to shore up Rigell, seeing as how the 1st and 4th districts aren't overwhelmingly Republican-leaning.  But it's still a pretty good map for the GOP.  8-3 GOP in a state Obama carried is tough to argue about.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure it's going to be that easy for them.
For one thing, they'll still have a lot of Democratic votes floating around in Republican districts.  I'd also imagine VA-09 will have to expand rather than contract, so it can't give Republican areas to VA-05, it'll have to take them from other districts.  Plus, even though VA-09 is the most Republican district presidentially in Virginia, do they really want to risk breaking that up considering its previous Democratic strength downballot?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not.
It all depends on how they draw the lines, but the 8th District is actually under the "ideal number" for population, which means it'll have to expand from where its out now. The 11th District will have to shrink slightly, but it won't expand inside the Beltway. It could pick up more Democratic precincts in PWC, but it could also lose Democratic precincts in Fairfax.
[ Parent ]
Some said that if Herrity was the GOP nominee, Connolly would have lost.
Why is that? (note: this wasn't a race I was following so I know little about any of the candidates)

This is good news.  Now, we just have to wait for Chandler's opponent down in Kentucky to concede.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Fimian is a crazy, far-right teabagger
Herrity was the "sane conservative" choice. Fimian was able to raise a bunch of money but put his foot in his mouth one too many times to win.
[ Parent ]
But who knows, Herrity might have run a lousy campaign and lost by MORE. Herrity...
...couldn't beat Sharon Bulova in the 2009 special for Fairfax County Board Chair, and he got creamed by Fimian in the VA-11 primary.

Herrity has a much better profile than Fimian, but maybe he's just a lousy campaigner?  Campaigns matter.  Just ask Creigh Deeds, who had a much better profile than McAuliffe or Moran, but performed no better than either of those guys would have.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The 11th District
The 11th District only includes a portion of Fairfax County. A lot of the most Democratic parts of the county (Mason District, Lee District, Providence District, Reston) are in the 8th; portions of Tyson's Corner and the town of Herndon are in the 10th. So the County at large is more Democratic than the portions of the 11th, which include the GOP-leaning Springfield District, and swingy Mt. Vernon and Braddock districts.

In the 2009 race you cite, Herrity lost by 1% (49.9/48.8) in the County at large, but won the 11th District portion with 56% of the vote against Connolly's protege. Notably, he won the Mount Vernon District where Fimian underperformed. Herrity also won Fairfax County in the primary against Fimian; its likely that he would have been able to blunt Connolly's support in Fairfax. Herrity also has close ties to the business community that normally support Connolly unless a better option comes around.

Finally, Herrity wouldn't have the same social conservative baggage that Fimian has (which the DCCC now has used successfully twice against him), and is unlikely to make a gaffe similar to the "packing heat" comment Fimian made about Virginia Tech a week before the election.

Yes, Herrity was defeated 55/44 in the primary, but I think he would have easily beaten Connolly in this environment.  

[ Parent ]
None of that data matters if he runs a bad campaign......
You run a bad campaign, and somehow the numbers you got before don't repeat themselves.

Connolly is stronger politically than Bulova, that she's his "protege" doesn't make her a political clone--and she's not.  So saying Herrity would've repeated against Connolly what he got against Bulova is a big mistake.  She's just not as skilled and doesn't have as strong a public image as her mentor.  And Connolly has won over those VA-11 voters in Fairfax County many times over; Bulova's introduction to voters outside her district was in the special.

And Herrity doesn't necessarily match Fimian in PW.  Fimian is just plain stronger there than Herrity, and it's dubious to assume Herrity would've matched his performance there against Connolly.

No Herrity wouldn't have easily beaten Connolly in this environment.  Your assumptions are very unsound.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
There's no way to be sure either way
Which is why I said "I think..." rather than making bold statements that can't be proven or disproven.

I agree none of what I said would matter if ran a bad campaign against Connolly, but since he didn't have a chance to run a campaign against Connolly, I'm not sure why you felt the need to point that out.

I'm not saying that Herrity would have repeated his performance against Connolly, but it stands to reason that he would have performed at least a little better than Fimian in Fairfax, and that could have made up the 1,000 vote difference. There are a lot of GOP-leaning precincts that Herrity carried in 2009 and Fimian under-performed in or lost in 2010.

As for PWC, again, there's no way to know for sure, but saying "Fimian is plainly stronger there" has no factual basis; its merely conjecture based on primary results, which have little bearing on the general election. Fimian won PWC 51/46 in 2010, but lost it in 2008. Meanwhile, Tom Davis used to carry PWC with close to 60% of the vote.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest Herrity would have done better. I think its enough to say that Herrity would have won, but I readily admit there's no way to say for sure, which is why I understand if people don't agree. However, there's little to no evidence to suggest that Herrity would have done worse than Fimian, which seems to be what you are trying to argue; but your argument is based on extrapolating primary election results.

[ Parent ]
You're making up a story about my argument......
You stated categorically in your previous comment that Herrity easily would've beaten Connolly.  My argument was and is simply that that's an unsound conclusion, not that Herrity clearly would've underperformed Fimian.

Regarding what I do think, I think Herrity would've been in the same ballpark as Fimian, maybe a little better, maybe a little worse.  Fimian had more money than Herrity, I think Herrity wouldn't have been as well-funded.  And I am, in fact, skeptical of Herrity's campaign skills given his last couple performances.  Fimian himself is not that skilled a candidate in spite of having run before, and yet he crushed Herrity in the primary.  Same goes for Bulova, she's not the politically strongest challenge Herrity could face, and she's considerably weaker than Connolly, and yet Herrity couldn't beat her in a special after Democrats had become exhausted post-2008 and base Democratic turnout was considerably down.  So on balance I think Herrity's relative advantages over Fimian would've been offset by his relative weaknesses.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
As I've said over and over,
There's no real way to know. But I didn't categorically state anything. I said "I think....". It is my opinion based on what I know, not meant to be presented as infallible truth.

We could argue all day and night about hypothetical candidacies or "what ifs" regarding different scenarios, but I'll just close on two points:

First, I disregard primary elections as analogous to general elections, similar to how Nate Silver disregards comparisons between primary polling and general election polling. They're simply two different animals and have to be looked at differently. Second, regarding the Chairman's race, Herrity lost by only 1% three months after Obama won the County with 60%. A loss is a loss, but for someone who had only been on the Board of Supervisors for a year it was a very close election.

You've stated your case, I've stated mine. I think we can agree to disagree.

[ Parent ]
One of my closer off-the-wall predictions
I said Fimian would win by the same margin as George W. in 2004.  
Someone guessed Connolly by 0.42%
Nice one.
[ Parent ]
Indeed

[ Parent ]
VA-11: WaPo Says Fimian Will Concede | 22 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox