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The 10 best (and five worst) campaigns of the 2010 cycle

by: markhanna

Mon Nov 08, 2010 at 10:09 AM EST


So here we are at the end of the 2010 race (well, almost at the end - there are still a couple of uncalled races). These are my picks for best and worst campaigns of this cycle. What are yours? And tell me if you agree or disagree with any of these
markhanna :: The 10 best (and five worst) campaigns of the 2010 cycle
BEST CAMPAIGNS

Harry Reid - NV-SENATE This was a masterpiece, one of those campaigns that will be studied for decades as an example of how to win in a negative environment. Reid's ads were brilliant, his strategy was forward thinking (i.e. he started knocking out potential opponenents in 2008) and he did a great job with GOTV and the other essentials. Yes, he got lucky in his opponent (and very unlucky in the cycle he was running), but given how at one point it looked like the Republicans could run a ferret against Harry Reid (oh wait, I guess they did) and still win, this still was an amazing comeback story.

Ron Johnson - WI-SENATE Yes, Feingold had underperformed in the past, but he had also survived a Republican year in 2004, and his outsider cred had beaten Republicans three times before. But Johnson ran a canny campaign that turned Feingold into a Washington insider, and managed to pull the biggest upset of an incumbent Senator of the cycle.

Rick Scott - FL-GOVERNOR This one pains me, because I think Scott is a loathsome individual. But the fact of the matter is, to get such a loathsome individual across the finish line against an incumbent Attorney General and the respected CFO of the state, you have to have a pretty good campaign. Best move: tarring Sink with the same corruption brush that had been used against Scott, even though the cases weren't even close to similar.

National Republican Campaign Committee The NRCC and Pete Sessions got ridiculed a fair amount on this site and others for their poor fundraising compared to the DCCC, but it turns out they were probably the smartest of any of the big campaign committees, opening up new opportunities throughout September and October. They certainly outperformed the more respected RGA.

Barbara Boxer - CA-SENATE Boxer is thought to be in trouble every campaign cycle, and everytime she outperforms expectations. Give the woman some respect.

John Kasich - OH-GOVERNOR Yeah, Portman blew his opponent away, whereas Kasich race was much closer, and yes Ohio's economy is in the crapper, but he still had a tough job in beating Ted Stickland, who's unpopularity never reached the level of some other Midwestern governors. Along with Scott's win, the biggest victory (in terms of influence) for the Republicans on election night.  

Marco Rubio - FL-SENATE Rubio showed some mad (and for us Dems, potentially scary) political skills in first driving Crist out of the Republican party, and secondly, beating both his opponents with just under 50 percent of the vote.

Bob Dold - IL-10 It's hard to single out one House campaign as being better than the others in a wave year, but Dold won a seat almost none of the pundits thought he could win, and (with Costa apparently holding on) pulled off the most Democratic seat of the cycle. Gotta give the guy props for that.

Lisa Murkowski - AK-SENATE (write in campaign only). Murkowski ran one of the worst campaigns up until the primary, but the fact she seems about to win as the first write in candidate for Senate since the 1950's is pretty amazing, and deserves some credit.

Ben Chandler One of the few Dems to survive Tuesday's apocalypse. In a R+9 district, no small feat.

WORST CAMPAIGNS

Meg Whitman, CA-GOVERNOR How could you spend so much money, and lose so badly?

Lee Fisher, OH-SENATE Fisher's campaign was basically all downhill after he won the primary.

DCCC We all loved Chris Van Hollen after the 2008 cycle, but I think he made a huge strategic error in not cutting more Democrats loose when he realized how bad the wave was going to be.

Alan Grayson, FL-08 One last thing to say about Grayson - when is the last time a Democrat was responsible for the most sleazy, misleading ad of the campaign?

Jim Oberstar, MN-08 Of all the committee chairs to lose this cycle, Oberstar was the only one to lose in a Democratic district (according to PVI). He should have seen this one coming.  
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The 10 best (and five worst) campaigns of the 2010 cycle | 78 comments
Some additions
Good list and a good idea.  Some additions:

Good campaigns:

1. Either joe walsh belongs here or Melissa bean belongs in the bad category.

2. Renee elmers--got the national attention and money before local voters were tuned in, then ran a mainstream campaign.

3. Pat toomey, ran to the center and avoided being typecast. Close because Joe sestak also ran a strong campaign

4. Buerkle in ny-25.  Same as walsh in il8.

5. Ayotte and the NH GOP:  they were going to win, but... Wow.

6. Bob portman  

7. Not just a winners' column: sink, sestak, perriello, and bielat beat the point spread.

Bad campaigns:

1. Ken buck--loses a gimme.

2.  I would put Rick Scott here. Cost a fortune to barely win. A democrat was not going to win in this climate and mccollum would have won by 10 spending nothing.

3. Carl paladino--although his issues may go beyond message discipline...

4. DCCC--just wish they'd poured a few million more into nye, kratovil, perriello, Patrick Murphy, etc.

5.  Obama/white house--the tax thing, the mosque thing, then whining about being outspent and running against the spectre of speaker boehner.  

3.  

2.        

Scott
ran an amazing campaign. I mean do you get how he outright broke the law and belongs in jail right now? A candidate with his baggage should not be able to get elected, even in a year like this in any state and Florida isn't that far to the right. Him winning is amazing, it shows he ran an amazing campaign and Sink a horrible one. Also Toomey did nothing special. Winning by two points in a year like this is not special. I found his campaign ads to be rather boring and he seems very meh to me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Toomey
Well, what else do you say about a fairly respected military official like Sestak who doesn't have much baggage?

You play a slideshow of Sestak, Pelosi, Obama, and the word liberal. If that's all you need to do to win, that's all you do. That's a 10 point swing from Rick Santorum in 2006.

One thing I did note is that the entire negative advertising deal seems to not be working as well as it used to. Sure, it works against the Angle's and the Odonnells and the Paladinos.

But like in this area, John Adler was running against former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan. Now, Adler is probably a much smarter guy than Runyan is, but the best negative ad he could come up with was something about Runyan owning donkeys to claim a farm tax credit.

I think if you're going to go negative, you have to do it with something that matters more than Aqua Buddha, farm tax credits, and the federal minimum wage. At least in a year like this.

[ Parent ]
Jerry
Brown's attack ads were truly memorable and that's part of the reason I believe why he cruised to victory. You could tune out Whitman's cookie cutter ads, but Brown's ads, like the one than turned Whitman into Pinocchio, Whitman indirectly saying she came to California because of Jerry Brown's outstanding leadership and the one that had Schwarzenegger and Whitman repeating the same talking points.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Joe Walsh
definitely does not belong in the good category. His campaign basically self-destructed. That's why Bean's loss was a huge surprise.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm going to put Lisa Murkowski on both lists!
She seemed to completely ignore the potential threat of Joe Miller before losing the primary, but I think she ran a brilliant campaign to (seemingly) win the write-in.  She had some of the best ads out there that really portrayed Miller not just as a mad bomber, but as the tool of outside groups while she was defending Alaska.
Jim McMillan
Best campaign ever.
I'd add Deval Patrick to the good list
His polling was miserable a year ago, but he rallied his supporters and crafted a message that appealed to swing voters as well, allowing him to pick up the bulk of Cahill's support after the RGA nuked him and coasted to victory.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
Christine O'Donnell, Carl Paladino, Libby Mitchell, and Treasurer Caprio...
Put 'em in the "bad" pile.

I'd have Sen. Feingold and Sharron Angle there, too, but you're right that Sen.-elect Johnson and Sen. Reid really ran campaigns worthy of recognition. I'm impressed with Sen.-elect Rubio's political acumen; if he's smart enough to see where the country is moving on issues like LGBT rights and he's canny enough to break with his mentor, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, on U.S.-Cuba relations, I can see him in the Oval Office within the decade. I'm not thrilled at the prospect, because I agree with him on next to nothing, but there's no question he's very, very talented and charismatic.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Again, what is so impressive
about Rubio? And what's so impressive about Johnson? I've heard nothing but bad things about him, but maybe that's just his platform as opposed to his political skills.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
What was so brilliant
About Johnson's campaign is the self-awarness that it exhibited. Many candidates lose because of hubris and they say dumb stuff.

Early on Johnson made a couple gaffes after which he became super disciplined as a candidate. His campaign realized that he was comically unprepared and unqualified to be a US Senator especially in comparison to his opponent. So they came up with some good ads and all of his speeches and comments were super banal. His goal became to run as "Generic Republican" and allow the environment to carry him to victory and he was able to do that.

[ Parent ]
Interesting.
You have to wonder how Johnson will appear six years from now. By default, you'd think he'd be a little more, um, senatorial, but you never know.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Goes without saying
That six years is a lifetime in politics. In six years Wisconsin Gov.-elect Scott Walker could be running for president(I've heard some people mention the possibility) or Rep. Paul Ryan might be on the ticket. Kinda goes without saying that if either of those things happen Johnson's re-election chances increase. And then there's the, IMO very slim possibility, that Johnson distinguishes himself in the senate and becomes a very popular senator which would also increase his re-election chances.

But if you want my prediction on how Johnson's term will go and how his re-election will go in six years. I expect to see a Richard Burr type scenario where half the electorate has no opinion on the guy and the winner will decided by the presidential election.

[ Parent ]
I can't believe I'm
defending Christine O'Donnell but she beat a man who had been elected statewide for 40 years. That's amazing. Plus she had the kitchen sink thrown at her and cleared 40 in a dem leaning state. That's not horrible.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
No, it's not
but you have to wonder how many more Republican-leaning voters turned out because of the wave and how many fewer Democrats turned out because it looked like Coons had this thing wrapped up.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
True.
Many probably did think it was wrapped up. Still beating Castle in the primary, that was something.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'd always
tempted to say that it's the base and that it's always more extreme, but yes, regardless of that, it's impressive. Troubling for us, but impressive for her.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Ros-Lehtinen was born in Cuba
and is thus ineligible for the presidency.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
SAOMagnifico
was talking about Rubio, not Ros-Lehtinen.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
What's so impressive
about Rubio's win? Sure, he won a fairly decisive victory, but it was a Republican wave, and he still didn't crack 50 percent.

I don't know much about this guy, but before everyone slobbers over him and makes him into the Obama 2.0, I'd love to hear what makes him so incredible.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Well, he did ...
... have the political senses to really ride the tea party wave early, basically forced Charlie Christ out of the Republican Party (at first, very few gave him any shot at this) -- and the fact that he got just shy of 50% in a race with three competitive candidates, including the sitting governor of the state, is pretty damn impressive in my book.  

Maybe look at it this way -- he won every county in Florida save 5 -- and only lost Pinalles to Crist by 2%, Palm Beach by 1%, and Broward by 4%.  In a state as incredibly politically diverse as Florida, again, that ranks as pretty impressive in my book.  We may hate his politics, but I think we underestimate him at our own peril.

[ Parent ]
I don't know
if anyone ever considered Meek nearly as viable as Crist, let alone Rubio. I don't think there was ever a poll that had him less than five points down, or maybe even ten points down.

It's impressive that he won the nomination against the governor of his party, but at the same time, it's less impressive if you think that voters simply turned to him because Crist didn't try to slap back the president's hand. These are base voters, after all.

As far as his county wins, if you imagine that Crist and Meek would mostly combine into one vote share, it looks like the counties that aren't extremely Republican to begin with would be more evenly divided. He still might have won a lot of them, but not as decisively as he did.

I still think his victory was solid, but Florida could still be argued as a lean-right state, and it was a Republican year. He didn't win 67 percent of the vote. People say he ran a good campaign, but people run good campaigns all the time. What specifically did he do that was so damn shrewd?

More than anything, remember that a lot of people around the country don't know who he is. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it could be.  He hasn't really been in the spotlight outside of Florida or outside of Republican circles around the country. He doesn't have the sort of good first impression that Obama had in his pocket after his 2004 speech, so he's open to be defined by the opposition far more than Obama was. And that is a pretty massive liability. There's always a chance that he could make a name for himself in a lot of ways, but he's not the president, and he's a freshman senator from a party that is in the minority in the Senate. Making countless appearances on television isn't the same as giving what amounts to a national address in prime time and looking like an above-the-fray figure in a divided country. Will Rubio be able to look like a moderate if he has to play to the base?

I could go on, but suffice it to say, before we pretend like he has an instant path to the White House, let's let him cast a few Senate votes and become a face for a rabid, angry political party. Then let's see if he has the same goodwill with the people that Obama had.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Rubio won independents
running to the far right of the independent candidate.  
[ Parent ]
What's your point?
He got less of that vote that Toomey or Johnson, far less than Rossi or Kirk, and only slightly more than Fiorina or Angle.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
!!!
There was an independent candidate who was also the governor!

I mean, seriously, the guy was a state rep, cleaned up against three candidates, beat a major independent candidate among his own demographic, and got over %50 of the total vote.

If that doesn't impress you, it's because you're either obtuse, or trying hard not to be impressed.  

[ Parent ]
Why
can't I consider Crist's vote and Meek's vote of the independent electorate more or less the same thing?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
50% in a three way race is pretty damn impressive.
Bill Clinton couldn't get 50% in 1996 against BOB DOLE! and the shadowy carcass of Ross Perot.  
[ Parent ]
Ha
Just saw someone above said the same exact thing, but with less potty language.
[ Parent ]
What a waste in FL-08
Here you had Alan Grayson, a firebrand liberal and Dan Webster, a staunch conservative. Here's two guys who represented to the core their ideological bases, and they could just have had a clash of ideas in this district and really give people a choice. Instead, Grayson stooped to Lee Atwater-like tactics and ended up getting crushed by 18 points. What could have been a fascinating race turned into another sorry example of crap politics.
Oh and one more thing.....
BOB DOLD!
[ Parent ]
DCCC advertising was poor
With a few exceptions, I didn't think the DCCC ads were very well-done, which means a lot of money was wasted. In IA-02 in particular I am skeptical that DCCC spending helped Loebsack.
I have some doubt looking

looking to the narrow victory of B Braley.

[ Parent ]
in terms of "winning ugly"
You have to give credit to Leonard Boswell in IA-03. I didn't like his ads, some of which focused on Brad Zaun's personal financial problems. He also got a bit lucky in that the NRCC and big Iowa donors didn't put money behind Zaun. But he did survive a massive wave despite trailing in Republican internal polling in the summer.
Not to get too far off topic here,
but I think it's far more impressive that Iowa Democrats held on than it is that Connecticut Democrats held on, because Iowa is much closer to being a tossup state than Connecticut is. What, exactly, happened that let them do so well, relatively speaking? Is the economic situation that much better? Perhaps it can shed a little light on the situation for 2012 and what might happen in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That's a good question.
I think lack of gerrymandering helps. But still, you'd think in a wave election the middle of the road districts would fall.
[ Parent ]
the economy is a bit better
in Boswell's case, Zaun was a weak and under-funded opponent.

The Iowa City area was the firewall for Dave Loebsack, and they had unusually high turnout this year because of a ballot initiative on underage people in Iowa City bars. If Mariannette Miller-Meeks had been running in IA-03, she might have been able to pull that off.

Braley's opponent was pretty weak in IA-01, and two third-party candidates siphoned off votes from the right there.

I don't think the ground game won it for our Congressional incumbents, because Iowa Democrats had a fairly dismal year in the state legislative races. Braley also failed to carry Scott County (Quad Cities area), where he romped in 2008. Though you could argue that we had a good turnout operation in the Iowa City area.

[ Parent ]
worst has to be Obama
He started with the buh buh Bush, went to Speaker Boehner, then went back to buh buh Bush, then went to car in a ditch, then went to 'nebulous special interests'.

George W. did comparatively better in 2006.

Uhh
the White House PR machine is a disgrace. Which is why I fear if the GOP pulls off a government shutdown, the White House would of lost the PR game because first they would blame the GOP, then blame themselves, then blame the GOP, then blame themselves, rinse and repeat. To be fair to Obama much of his troubles are because of the economy, but many of his wounds are self inflicted. If you're going to take a position on a mosque near ground zero stick to it! Don't back off when the media puts the heat on you. Hell Bush remained defiant up to the day he left office.

Which is a shame because the Obama 2008 campaign was one of the most finely tuned operations I've ever seen.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Oberstar
DID see it coming. He still lost. That should tell you something.

It's easily the biggest upset of the cycle. Maybe not the most surprising, but Oberstar is the Iron Range.  

Elaborate, please.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
There was an article
in the Star Tribune which quoted either Obestar himself or one of his staff that said they were aware of the tightening of the race even before the republican internal was raised. Oberstar spent more money and time campaigning in this cycle than in any in recent memory, if ever. He wasn't blindsided, he just lost.
[ Parent ]
His performance is especially pathetic...
When you consider the fact that all the statewide winners were Democrats and won his district, usually by decisive margins. Plus, he outspent his opponent allmost 11-3, while Dayton had millions in outside money being spent against him and being involved in a high-profile race. It's not like the Democrats i the Iron Range performed that poorly at the state legislative level either compared to similar districts in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula in Michigan where Democrats were slaughtered at the state legislative level. How did Oberstar screw this up so bad? If he really wasn't ready for a tough campaign he should have retired.

MI-06 (home), MI-03 (college)

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
I'd say...
The Best: (7R, 3D)
1. Ron Johnson
2. Rob Portman
3. Harry Reid
4. Barbara Boxer
5. Rick Snyder
6. Marco Rubio
7. Rick Perry
8. Lisa Murkowski
9. Pat Toomey
10. Jerry Brown

The Worst: (2D, 2R, 1I)
1. Carl Paladino
2. Frank Caprio
3. Libby Mitchell
4. Charlie Crist
5. Dan Maes

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

You have to wonder
what would have happened if Lazio and Palladino decided to run as a ticket and focus purely on job creation and tax cuts, especially in the upstate region. If Palladino could have controlled his mouth and Lazio stopped pretending like the mosque near Ground Zero was the end of civilization as we know it, maybe they could have made it a race.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
But, Paladino and Lazio LOATHED each other
That was never, ever gonna happen. If we pretend otherwise and imagine an environment where Paladino is gaffe-free and Lazio isn't bland vanilla, then, yes, I suspect they could've kept Cuomo to a 10-13 point victory. I do wonder how Lazio would've performed vs. Cuomo, though. My gut tells me not much better; he would've out-performed Paladino downstate, but Cuomo would've won Erie County (where Paladino prevailed in a cake walk).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I didn't know that.
I really didn't pay much attention to the New York governor's race, because I figured Cuomo would win it easily.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I agree more with your list

I would change C Crist and add K Meek. This is the same case than Caprio, Mitchell or Maes.

In the positive case I would include Ray Powell, who win the office of New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands with long disadvantage fundraising. He run a very effective campaign with very low resources.

P Shumlin run too a very good campaign defeating all the favorites at the begin of the race.

M O'Malley would be in my list too.

I must think more about this for give a list but I think I agree with you in some things. Your list of bad campaigns is so good.

[ Parent ]
I think the worst campaigns between all the primary winners would be:

1 D Maes (R running for CO-Gov 11.1%)
2 L Mitchell (D running for ME-Gov 19.1%)
3 K Meek (D running for FL-Sen 20.1%)
4 F Caprio (D running for RI-Gov 23.0%)
5 J Miller (R running for AK-Sen 34.3%)
6 M Whitman (R running for CA-Gov 41.7% after spend a lot of millions)

This list is so easy. I think no-one have worse result even running for the house or statewide offices, where I remember not competitive independents over the candidates of the big parties.

I would like see L Chafee joining the democratic party.

For give the list of best campaigns I must think more.

[ Parent ]
Why does it matter if Chafee joins the Democratic Party?
Democrats on Smith Hill have a pretty negative image. I would argue Chafee's image is enhanced by him not being associated with them.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think it would help both

Chafee would have easier support of the democrats of both state chambers and would assure his reelection. In return, the good image of Chafee would help to the democrats from Rhode island.

Would be bad if Lincoln Chafee join the blue team? Chafee alone has not a very large support (36.1%). A no-name repubican was only 2.5% back. I think the left in Rhode Island needs join bids.

[ Parent ]
You gotta understand how RI politics works...
the old-school Dem places like Johnston and North Providence aside, lots of liberals in RI vote for Dems not because they are Democrats but despite them being Democrats. Many people here are really not happy with the Democrats in the legislature, and if Republicans these days weren't so far to the right, the Dems might actually be in serious trouble in RI. Some people might see a Chafee entry into the Democratic Party as a betrayal of his roots, and others might take it to mean that he is getting too cozy with insider politics. The downside on Chafee's popularity is greater than the upside for the RI Democratic Party. And the possibility of a primary is not welcoming either.

In terms of him winning re-election, his best bet is probably the Dems running a sacrificial lamb. That way Chafee's popularity stays afloat and the vote split next time around is minimal.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I doubt not your analisis is rigth

And the local democrats are as unpopular as you tell.

As a leftist what want the best for the democratic side and what want the left work united, I think is too pessimist get in the resignation about this unpopularity. I would like find some think what help changing this.

Few loyal democrats can get happy running a sacrificial lamb in a D+10+ state.

They are not a better role for the democrats in Rhode Island in the next 8 years?

[ Parent ]
Re: sacrificial lamb
so do you also advocate running a Democratic candidate against Bernie Sanders in 2012?

The state Democratic Party in RI has a reputation for corruption and waste here. You think I'm making this up, but there's a reason that the state senate president lost his seat to an indy candidate in 2008.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
How can you not include Frank Caprio on this list?
Not only did he come in third place in what's maybe the most systemically Democratic state in the country, he doesn't even have the luxury of other general-election failures of having run a half-way decent primary campaign, since the state Democratic party cleared the field for him. His "shove it" comment, besides being completely disrespectful and classless, has to go down as one of the dumbest single things anyone candidate has done just for the fact that it was done right around the time news about him meeting with the with state Republicans broke and the president visiting the state.

And if this list can include candidates in primaries, Rick Lazio has to be on the top of the list, period, for worst campaign of the entire cycle.

MI-06 (home), MI-02 (College)

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

Caprio is a huge fail
he only won three towns in the entire state (out of 39). He led for quite a while and ran fundraising laps around his opponents, and finished in 3rd! Serves him right.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Wow.
I knew he had been leading in the polls, but only winning three towns? That's week. I'm assuming one of those is Providence, or did Chafee win it?

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)
[ Parent ]
Chafee won Providence!
...which I am happy about since I am from Providence and I voted for Chafee, although since I voted by absentee my vote was most likely not counted. Chafee actually won Providence with a majority, which is very impressive in a three-way race with three strong candidates. (For comparison, Clinton's win in Arkansas was the only majority win in any state in 1992. All other states were plurality wins.)

The three towns Caprio won were Central Falls, Johnston, and North Providence. Central Falls is overwhelmingly Hispanic (I haven't looked at precinct-level results yet to see if Caprio replicated his success in Hispanic parts of Providence), Johnston and North Providence are both old-school working-class heavily-Catholic Dem towns.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Question about Rhode Island.
Since you're from Rhode Island, maybe you can answer this: In 2008, Obama only lost Scituate in Rhode Island, and pilled up huge margins in areas that were heavily working class and Catholic. In that same year, he won most similarly Catholic and working class areas in suburban South Boston and the northeastern corner of Massachusetts, but by much narrower margin. Is there any reason Rhode Island's traditional Democratic base has stayed so loyal compared to even other New England states because it seems like Republicans have been rapidly losing ground in the state in the last few years compared to Massachusetts and Connecticut. And I know Democrats still on the governorships of Massachusetts and Connecticut this year and every House seat in those states, but it seems like this year, with Chafee and Caprio effectively splitting the center-left, left and moderate vote between them, Robitaille should have done better then win narrow pluralities in Kent and Newport, counties where both Chafee and Carcieri won majorities in 2006.

MI-06 (home, MI-02 (college)

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Going by counties is deceptive in RI
We only have 5 counties. It underestimates our political diversity. Going by towns is a much better indicator (on CNN's election site, if you click the county table, it gives you town-by-town results. also, if you go to projo.com they should have a map for town-by-town results for this year)

I can't check the towns myself right now because I'm a bit busy, but it's worth noting that both Chafee and Carcieri are from Kent County (Chafee used to be mayor of Warwick though I believe he now lives in Providence. Carcieri is from East Greenwich). also, since every town in Kent County besides Warwick is relatively conservative, basically every Republican who wins or comes close statewide will win it. Robitaille didn't do that well really (only got 34% of the vote) but it appears to me that Caprio's collapse actually benefited him. I suspect, although this is just a theory, that Caprio bled much of his support among fiscal conservatives (who would be unlikely to vote for tax-happy Chafee).

Your first question is a bit tough. Though national Democrats post large margins in such towns, they are more along the lines of 60-40 or so as opposed to urban, diverse places--Providence, Pawtucket, Central Falls--where Democrats run into the 70s or even 80s. I think Rhode Island is, at its core, a more Democratic state than MA or CT nowadays, although probably not by much. If I had to take a stab at it, I would say that RI is not as wealthy as MA and CT and hence probably has less patience for fiscal conservatives. That's just a guess.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Sounds reasonable. Thanks.


20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)
[ Parent ]
Joe Sestak ran a great race
and performed far better on election night than he had any right to, given the environment.  
Michael Bennet
how has this guy not made anybody's best list yet?
lucky, not great
He would have lost to a different opponent. But as my dad used to say, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
[ Parent ]
He
was still pretty good. Did great with fundraising, did some GREAT ads and ran an overall good campaign. Buck is very conservative but no more than Allard was. Check out Bennet's ad with his kids making their beds and getting on the bus, nothing short of amazing. Bennet should not have won, I was not expecting him to and his win is amazing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Bennett just missed my cut...
He ran a good campaign, but there was a fair amount of luck involved as well - for one thing the top of the ticket helped him, where it did not help people like Reid and Ben Chandler.  
[ Parent ]
Bennet, on paper, was weak, but he won
Gov-elect Hickenlooper was lucky. He had basically no primary opposition and was running against two completely hopeless idiots. Bennet actually had to campaign.

There are a bunch of reasons why Bennet's win was especially impressive. Let's start with the fact that this was Bennet's first campaign ever and it wasn't a simple state legislative race where mistakes might go unnoticed, but a high-profile, high-stakes contest from the beginning. Yet I never heard about a single gaffe on his part. Bennet was also one of the few winning candidates on Team Blue to face a competitive primary--against an experienced politico and former Speaker, no less. Bennet was also appointed by an unpopular governor, which isn't exactly a great introduction.

And let's be honest, while I think he's a decent man, he doesn't exactly ooze charisma. He also had no geographical base (unlike Buck, who cleaned up in Weld County). And yet... he racked up newspaper endorsements, put out great ads, fundraised like a mofo, performed pretty well in debates, and generally just ran a good campaign.

Really, the only built-in advantage he had was his freakishly adorable family. His daughters were basically responsible for some of the best positive ads this side of the Cazayoux girls.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
He likely benefitted by having Ken Buck beat Jane Norton but it was Bennet defining Buck that made the campaign. He had no major gaffes and was extremely disciplined. Look at the comparison of Bennet and Feingold. You could argue that their states and opponents had a similiar dynamic yet Feingold lost by 5% and Bennet won his race.

I personally think Bennet would be a nice fit as the head of the DSCC as he could likely stay on for 2 cycles.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
great point that for Bennet's first political campaign EVER for anything, he didn't make any
significant errors or gaffes. Especially being that it was at the high pressure Senate-level race, not to make some newbie mistakes.

In hindsight, that's awfully impressive.

[ Parent ]
OH
Lee Fischer and Jennifer Brunner have to be on here.

Fischer due to the fact that he was ahead or tied in polls with Portman for a long time and still didn't raise money or do sqaut.

Brunner for failing to beat Fischer who is apparently very beatable.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Fisher Did Raise Money
As of the Oct. 13 reports, Fisher had raised over $6 million. By comparison, Giannoulias had raised $8.4 million, Carnahan 9.6 million, Conway 4.9 million, Hodes $4.7 million.

So while Fisher's numbers are hardly spectacular, they're not trivial either. I'd say his fiscal problems were more due to the primary than the fundraising.

[ Parent ]
Good discussion....
This is a good thread Mark. Here are my abbreviated lists:
The good:
1. Harry Reid - He knew he was going to be targeted years ago and wasn't caught napping. Yes he benefitted from Angle but he also cleared 50% and had the kitchen sink thrown at him. Remarkable that he won.

2. Ron Johnson - the single biggest beneficiary of this political cycle by far. His outsider ads with the white board were great and showing him as a unique fit for the Senate and showing Feingold as "one of many" was solid.

3. Pat Toomey - despite his narrow win and the vast amount of third party expenditures that were dumped on his behalf one can't discount his win. His voting record in Congress was extremely conservative and he is running in a left-center state. His job at Club for Growth was purging the Republican party of moderates. Overall a great campaign by Toomey based on his win.

4. Michael Bennet - even with Ken Buck's flaws and his narrow win Bennet had never run a campaign in his life. He managed to win the Primary over a relatively well-known challenger in Andrew Romanoff and did a fantastic job in casting Ken Buck as "extreme". In the end it worked.

5.Rick Scott - the fact that with all of his baggage that he was able to win a purple state in Florida is simply amazing. He managed to turn the tables on Sink. Flat out amazing that he won. His Lt. Governor pick was a slam dunk as it softened his image a lot to unsure voters.

The bad:
1. Sharron Angle - had she shut up she would have won. She continued to run her mouth and shoot herself in the foot over and over. Her hubris costed her a win big time. Her Latinos and Asians comment looks like it cemented the Latino voting surge.

2. Lee Fischer - I know it was a bad environment but the fact that Portman was an economic advisor to Bush couldn't you have held him to 55% of the vote?

3. Meg Whitman - lots of cash was burned here. Lots of TV ads but no ground game or infrastructure it appears.

4. Alan Grayson - being put in the same category as Andrew Breitbart is not a good thing.

5. Joe Miller - I don't even know where to start here but his mouth costed him a Senate seat. See #1 here.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

At least Joe Miller ran one of the most entertaining ads
The Old Spice style ad against Murkowski was pretty awesome.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Re Alan Grayson
I was expecting more from this guy.

I was expecting him to go down fighting and be a very formidable opponent, if he did go down.

Well, that didn't happen.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Well
When you take pages out of Andrew Breitbart's playbook and you reside in a swing district that is slightly tilted to the right it is a recipe for disaster which is exactly what happened to him.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
After
Grayson pulled that shit I would not have voted for him had I lived in his district. Webster was the only Republican I was rooting for this year (besides some local stuff). Grayson ruined any chance he had, dumbest thing I've ever seen.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Grayson
I agree with you here, I would have voted 3rd party or held my nose and voted for Webster. The worst part was how people like Kos kept defending him. I know some liked his outspoken brash ways but there were people who were much better representatives of the party then that clown. I really hope MSNBC doesn't offer him a job.

Sorry about Baron Hill. Made a lot of calls to your district for Baron, I am surprised the margin was as high as it was. Any word on what is next for him? He took a lot of tough votes and I am sure that the Administration will have something for him. A comeback will be hard for him given a likely new district that may have Bloomington chopped up or out of it.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
basilmarceaux.com
winner for shear entertainment value.

We need a crackpot winners and losers list.

for entertainment value?
    Dale Peterson for the win!   Ya gotta love him (unless you're a thug or criminal).  Not that I would vote for him or anything, though.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
The 10 best (and five worst) campaigns of the 2010 cycle | 78 comments

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