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Ohio Redistricting 2012 - 13-3 GOP

by: 54cermak

Fri Nov 05, 2010 at 9:26 AM EDT

Alot of people have pointed out that House losses in Ohio shouldn't be a big deal because the GOP has already gerrymandered Ohio to their maximum advantage.

However, what that fails to take into context is that Ohio is about to lose 2 of its 18 seats once the census figures are published, which gives the GOP an opportunity to take a 13-5 House advantage to 13-3. Below are some scenarios that will enable them to accomplish that:

Lost Seat #1: Shore up Jim Renacci, combine Tim Ryan and Betty Sutton.

This scenario seems like the easiest call for the Republicans. Currently Renacci was just elected to OH-16 which contains Stark (Canton/Massillon), Wayne (Wooster), Medina (Cleveland exurbs), and Ashland (rural, very conservative) Counties.

This district was drawn in 2000 to protect GOP moderate stalwart Ralph Regula who lived in the Canton area. Canton & Stark County also happen to be the most Dem friendly parts of the district as currently constructed, voting for both Kerry and Obama in 2004 & 2008. With Renacci's home in Wadsworth (Medina County), it will be easy for Republicans to combine parts of the current OH-10, 13, 16, 17 & 18 into two districts.

Renacci's new district will shift north and west, abandoning Stark County in the process by swallowing the Medina & Cuyahoga County portions of OH-13 (these suburbs: Strongsville, North Royalton & Brecksville are the most reliably GOP leaning areas of Dem-heavy Cuyahoga County), the eastern Lorain County portion of 13 (Avon, Avon Lake, North Ridgeville: fast growing GOP suburbs) and the western edge of OH-10 (Bay Village, Rocky River, Westlake). Whatever portions of Wayne & Ashland counties in the southern part of his current district that won't fit population-wise can be eaten up by Gibbs in present-day OH-18.

That leaves a new Democratic district comprised of Akron, Canton & Youngstown that draws Sutton's home in Copley (just outside Akron) and Ryan's home in Niles (just outside Youngstown) into the same district and forces a primary between the two most promising congressional Dems in Ohio. Taking one of these two out will be a major boon to the GOP by eliminating or weakening the strongest challengers to Portman or Kasich in 2014 and 2016.

Lost Seat #2: This is where it gets harder for the GOP to come up with another lost Dem seat. The possibilities in order of likelihood:

1. With Renacci squeezing Kucinich to the west, the Republicans could draw a new minority-majority district in Cleveland by moving Fudge and Kucinich into the same district. This would involve LaTourette scraping off the eastern edge of Fudge's territory. The new map would basically be the city of Cleveland + inner ring suburbs.

In this situation, Kucinich would likely retire or move to the suburbs to challenge Renacci where he would lose in an R+ district.

2. Split up Columbus 3 ways. Columbus presents a problem for Republicans in the state. It is the area that is experiencing the most population growth in the state, and it is also the area that is trending the strongest towards Democrats.

Currently OH-12 (Tibieri) and OH-15 (Stivers) represent the city by drawing in as much as they can from the sparsely populated surrounding counties. Even here, both districts are perpetually threatened, with Kilroy (D) holding OH-15 for one term before her defeat this year. OH-12 is actually the bluer of the two Columbus districts, but Dems can never seem to recruit the right candidate to beat Tibieri.

To stave off flipping one of these seats permanently to Team Blue, the GOP could find a way to give Gibbs or Turner a slice of the Columbus pie and keep Dem votes divided.

3. The last scenario I could see happening doesn't get the GOP to 13-3, but could be a prudent strategic move for them in SW Ohio.

By eliminating OH-2 (Schmidt), they could expand Chabot's district to the east and leave him less vulnerable to a Democratic wave year like 2008. Turner and Johnson (OH-6)would take what was left of Mean Jean's territory and help shore up their own re-election hopes.

Schmidt's constant underperformance is likely a drag on RCCC funds as they constantly have to defend the 2nd most Republican seat in Ohio due to the relative unpopularity of Ms. Schmidt.

These are just a few scenarios and I'm sure I'm missing others. Another possibility would be to force Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta into a showdown, but Kapur's seat is already so gerrymandered, I'm not sure how you draw in Toledo & the islands without strengthening the Dems.

Any thoughts?

54cermak :: Ohio Redistricting 2012 - 13-3 GOP
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I'm working
on an Ohio R gerrymander right now, and I have to say, the Republicans have to be very careful.  The state has gone from 6-12 in 2004 to 10-8 in 2008, now back to 5-13 in 2010.  Like any major swing state, Ohio is very susceptible to major swings in the political wind, and if the GOP tries to go for 13-3, they are extremely likely to get burned.

I think the #2 scenario you present wouldn't work because Fudge's district is a VRA district, and the areas to the west of downtown Cleveland are VERY white.  Scenario 1 seems like it could work, but in reality, half of Akron and Youngstown are already combined, and a lot of western/northern Summit county is very conservative, so I'm not sure it would be to their benefit.  The other consideration is that LaTourette's district (OH-14) has to expand due to population loss, and if he loses northern Summit communities then he'll have to expand into either eastern Cuyahoga (again, VRA probably prevents that), or D-leaning Trumbull county.  Either is dangerous.  

Oh, and if Kaptur were to be combined with Latta (which I think is likely given NW Ohio's population losses), Kaptur would kick his ass in any configuration that included Toledo.  The farm country out in the northwest is getting bluer as well, Strickland carried several of those counties despite losing to Kasich, and Obama made great strides there in 2008.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

There would definitely be parts of Summit & Portage counties where LaTourette would need to expand into (I'm thinking Richfield, Bath, and the rural part of Cuyahoga Falls) to incorporate Akron, Fairlawn and Copley - and Sutton's residence - into Ryan's district.

I'm having problems getting that redistricting app to work or else I would have included maps and I'd have a clearer idea of what I'd need to make the population work.

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Oh, I forgot to mention one factor in pushing Fudge and Kucinich together in a Cleveland-only district is that LaTourette would take the white east side suburbs she currently has to make up for the additional white population on the west side (not sure the details of VRA, if it only applies to African Americans or all minorities, but Cleveland's Hispanic population is within Kucinich's territory - which might also help).  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Whether you can turn a majority black district
into a black + hispanic district seems like an open question to me. My guess is that you can only do it when you have to.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think
The Obama Justice Department would be okay with turning OH-13 into an outright coalition district, though they might stand down if they draw it to be plurality black (ie: 47% or 48% black but only 45% white, or something like that).  

The big problem for the democrats is that the democratic vote in Cuyahoga County is not distributed equally at all.  The swath on the east side from Euclid down to Warrensville votes at a 95% Obama/D clip, but the outlying suburbs are definitely swing or leaning R in most cases.  

I forgot to mention Columbus.  That's going to be probably the most intriguing piece of this whole puzzle.  If the Republicans do the prudent thing, bite the bullet and give the democrats a district in central Franklin County, they should be able to shore up everybody else.  Somehow I doubt they'll throw Gibbs or Stivers under the bus though, and they'll try to split Columbus into 3.  I hope they do, because if they do I guarantee at least two of those districts will be in D hands by the end of the decade.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
The alternative to an inside-I-270 district
would be Possumtracker1991's Cincinnati-to-Columbus VRA district:

[ Parent ]
He also merged Kucinich and Fudge
into a 50% black district.

[ Parent ]
That's exactly what I had in mind.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
That is both hideous and evil.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
You can't combine Canton and Akron and Youngstown
So CDs will have around 700k people.  Summit County has 550k, Stark has 375k, 237k.  Besides Ryan lives in Trumbull County.   I get how you could take out one of the two members, but in the process could endanger Renacci or Latourette.  We will end up with an 11-5 delegation.  More likely than not Bill Johnson gets screwed and Jim Jordan runs for the Senate.

It will be 11-5
I don't see how they make a map that won't backfire without giving the Dems 5 seats:

3 in Cleveland/Akron/Youngstown (as you correctly note, Betty Sutton loses a seat here; you can't draw Kucinich out as well)
1 in Toledo
1 in Columbus, possibly stretching to Dayton or Cincinnati.

I don't think you can split Columbus 3 ways without at least one of those seats picking up other Democratic territory.  With the two-way split, both seats are swing-ish (though Tiberi has hung on for a while).  If you tried, you could get something notionally 12-4, but it wouldn't hold.

I expect Jean Schmidt will be the other seat that is "lost", Steve Stivers is likely to end up in the seat that is much more Democratic.

The "fun" parts of the map will be dividing Cincinnati to make the seats more evenly Republican, and to try to break the formerly Dem seats in Southeast Ohio into something more easily defendable for the Republicans.

population loss
Population loss in that are has been severe.
9th 650
10th 550
11th 550
13th 640
17th 610

Those were the counts as of last year. It's probably gotten worse since.

If those numbers hold, the GOP is pretty much stuck giving the Dems 4 districts there. Sutton is probably axed because her territory feeds into Latuorette easier.

Bill Johnson seems like the easiest target to eliminate, sadly. That was Ted Strickland's district after all. Then you carve something ugly in Columbus to end up at 11-5.

[ Parent ]
Actually, 12-4 safe is possible.
The current 13th has Republican areas in Cayuhoga and Medina counties. Move these areas into the 16th.

If you can move more of Cayuhoga into the 16th, all the better. If possible, Stark county then gets fractured and a piece of it moves into the 18th.

The Democratic areas in Summit county in the 13th move to the 17th. The Democratic areas in Lorain county in the 13th move to the 9th. The 13th is eliminated.

Some careful drawing is going to be needed to draw the Toledo suburbs (but not Toledo) into the 5th.

The 10th and 11th merge. 10th is gone. Some careful drawing extracts the east Cleveland suburbs from the 11th or the Trumbull country areas from the 17th into Steve Latuorette's district. Probably this district is only safe while he is here, though.

That's 3 Dem districts in the northern band of the state, and the new Columbus district.

Another thing to consider is the jagged district from Cincinnati to Columbus. Cincinatti is easier to fracture and more Republican. Might be better to create some jagged mess from Columbus to the current 10th instead, or the current 17th.

[ Parent ]
This scenario of carving up Stark County to move the 16th north into the GOP areas of Cuyahoga is exactly what I was describing above.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
yeah i see that now
The decision on what to do with the slightly GOP suburbs seems pretty independent of what to do with Columbus. Boehner can go with either, or, or both. I think if you dip into Columbus, though, you do it 4 ways. Or you just make a big circle and yield it.

I guess it really depends on population figures, but it is possible everything can hold. If Tim Ryan's new district is too big, though, things get ugly.

I'm not sure what you do with Stark, though. I don't think you can fully absorb it into the 6th or 18th without causing problems. I guess if the new 16th dumped Ashland, it could retain 1/3 of Stark; you put another 3rd in the old 18th, and the last 3rd in the old 6th. I'm not sure that the 6th would be safe in that situation, though. There are some Dem counties to the south.

[ Parent ]
South of Canton
The Dem counties south of Canton are more in tune with West Virginia politically. They voted for Strickland (even this year), but rejected Obama and were the one area Kerry underperformed Gore in Ohio.

Its going to be a tough call on Columbus. The GOP may just decide to give Dems a seat there and console themselves with the fact that they took out Sutton or Ryan, either of whom could be a major threat to Kasich or Portman in their next respective cycles.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]

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