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IN-Gov: Pence Prepping for Gube Bid

by: James L.

Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 4:07 PM EDT


I guess it's time to start up a new House open seat watch, huh?

NewsChannel 15 political analyst and Republican Allen County Recorder John McGauley says Congressman Mike Pence will run for Indiana governor in 2012.

McGauley said that information came straight from people who work for Pence .

"He's running for governor. He's laying the groundwork with all these bus tours that he's doing; supporting legislative candidates [in Indiana]. And he's even out there right now recruiting county coordinators for a governor's race," said McGauley.

Pence is staying mum for now, but it sure looks like he may be the man to challenge Evan Bayh in two years.
James L. :: IN-Gov: Pence Prepping for Gube Bid
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IN-Gov: Pence Prepping for Gube Bid | 64 comments
strange
I thought he would try for Boehner's job.
Is his seat
one that is even remotely gettable for the Democrats?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
held by a dem before him
but its R+10
[ Parent ]
Pence's
House seat is winnable with the right candidate and the right year. I doubt it happens next time though. I do not know the area enough to give you a list of candidates. Barry Welsh will run, I promise you that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
In other words,
even if someone is elected there as a Democrat, it'll be hard to keep the seat? This person will always have a target on his back?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yes, Very
Had Pence for some reason not run in 2008 we probably would have found someone who would have won it and would have lost last night. It is an R+10.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
What Hoosierdem said
Anderson and Muncie are pretty blue collar with a still sizable union infuence, and will vote for good Democratic candidates (and Muncie has Ball State as well) -- but the rest of the district is brutal.
[ Parent ]
2012 is a redistricting year
Who knows what it will look like?
[ Parent ]
Not really
IN-6 is my home district and it's a tough district for Democrats. All of the Democrat votes in Indiana are concentrated in a few districts because of the Democrat gerrymander and the density of Democrat strength in Gary and Indianapolis. Muncie and Columbus are the only wells of Democrat strength in the district, and they only have a slight tilt.

David McIntosh (he preceded Pence, lost his 2000 Gov bid) has been wanting to run for that seat for a while. Luke Messer (almost ousted Burton) might run too. All the action will be in that primary.

[ Parent ]
So
you think McIntosh will give it a go?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, McIntosh wants to get back in the game
He's friends with Pence and is still very active in Indiana Republican circles. I am almost certain he'll run in IN-6 if Pence steps aside. He'll probably win, too.
[ Parent ]
Messer
could give him a run for his money I would think. Any other potential candidates that you can think of?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
that's weird, your computer must be acting up
You must've meant to write "Democratic" but somehow it kept getting changed to "Democrat."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Hey Evan Bayh
Not even that $10 million you have in the bank can help you against Pence. So now I hate you even more, if that's possible.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
Hmm
I wouldn't write off Bayh in that race.

But God do I hate Bayh as well. Almost wouldn't want to cheer for him. Almost.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
I'm
no fan of Bayh but to say he has no chance against Pence is just not accurate. As a matter of fact I think Bayh would be favored. Bayh is still VERY popular among a lot of people and the greater Indiana do not know who Mike Pence is.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not writing him off
I agree Bayh would be probably the strongest candidate Democrats could run. I'm just saying that money won't really matter. Pence can raise enough that the air war will essentially be a draw. Now, if Bayh had put $5 million into Indiana Dem coffers before the election which would've helped make sure Indiana Democrats weren't so completely decimated, he might find he had a lot more allies among elected officials.

So once again, Bayh hurts himself and his supposed party by being a completely useless douchebag.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Any Democrats here who can run?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Evan Bayh
DINO he may be, but he's probably the only one with a real shot at winning. I think he's still pretty popular and comes across as moderate, while Pence will have a hard time bucking his far-right image.

If 2012 is anything like this year, Pence probably crushes anyone, but if it's a more neutral year I'd give the edge to Bayh. Remember, Indiana has been hostile to Dems at the presidential level for decades yet has regularly elected moderate Dem governors.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
How much
of Obama's victory there, however small it may have been can be chalked up something other than a combination of him being a somewhat local boy, Republicans not campaigning in the state seriously/Democrats actually campaigning in the state seriously, and increased Democratic turnout? In other words, was this really anything other than a fluke?

I don't know if Indiana is set to lose any seats in the next redistricting, but at 10 electoral votes, it's a nice state to have. Is it changing enough demographically, like the Southwest is, for us to have a shot just because, or is it the sort of state that would require us to keep investing in massively? Or is it none of the above?

I would think the Democrats have a pretty clean, updated roll of voters, and because it's been neglected for so long, there are still more voters to register. Perhaps it doesn't need to be hostile to us.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Not a fluke, but probalby a one shot deal
We won due to the factors you mentioned -- Obama lived right next door, and came here A LOT. A ton of money was spent on the air and on the ground -- he and his people worked this state like no one I've ever seen, and McCain ignored it.  Can it happen again?  Maybe, but probably not.  Can it happen if anything close to this environment still exists in 2012?  Hell no.
[ Parent ]
A lot will
change if this environment still exists in 2012. I just hope there isn't an automatic decision not to contest the state, throwing away all of the hard work that happened last time.

I'm curious, though, when you say he went there a lot, was that before or during the campaign, or even during this past election? And how did he and his people work the state?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He was ...
... here multiple times during the campaign, both for the primary (remember we had one of the last really hotly contested Obama/Clinton primaries), and then regularly up through election day.  He had a huge rally on American Legion Mall in downtown Indianapolis, where like 40,000 people attended -- I've never seen anything like that in this state, especially for a Democrat.

He also had a level of organization that was unheard of for any candidate.  He had paid staff in every mid-size town on up.  He dispatched effective surrogates all over the place.  Hell, even Birch Bayh got back into the game, doing basically a "bar and diner" tour of smalltown southern Indiana talking to small groups of people.

Most importantly, the Obama campaign didn't give up on one single area or county of the state.  For the first time in over 20 years, Democrats opened an office in Hamilton County (the wealthy, uber-Republican northern Indy 'burbs).  In the past, Democrats only went to Hamilton County for $1000 a plate fundraisers.  Sounds simple -- if you want people to vote for you, you have to go to them and ask them!

The results were remarkable -- Obama improved on Kerry's performance in every single county.  It took probably tens of millions of dollars to do, but it worked.  And I agree, I hope this all doesn't just get written off next time.

[ Parent ]
IN may be gettable still
Last night notwithstanding, politically and culturally it really isn't very different from Ohio, albeit with somewhat less of a union presence.

Obviously Obama wouldn't win the state today. But who knows what the political climate will be like in two years? And he's certainly visited the state enough times that it seems pretty clear they want to keep it.  

[ Parent ]
Talking
about the CD or Governor? For Governor I'd say: Bayh, Hill, Ellsworth, Young (prominent state sen), several other state legislators, John Mellencamp, Kathy Davis (former LG), Joe Kernan (probably not) and there are some businessmen who can self fund I'm sure. I'm probably leaving off some. Bayh will more than likely run. Not sure about the CD.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
John Mellencamp for Governor? Are you serious? Has he said anything? (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
If
Bayh and Hill say no I wouldn't rule it out. He flirted with running for the Senate this year. He's very liberal. He'd be a sacrificial lamb against Pence but he'd probably be a step above some unknown state legislator. He could rake in the dough I'm sure  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
And would have really cool campaign rallies!

[ Parent ]
JCM
I would support him only if he agreed to put his name on the ballot as John Cougar Mellencamp. :)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Evan Bayh what a doof...
to think that he was in the Veep stakes...yuck!!! What a disaster he would have been.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
Pence is very ambitious
I suspect he wants to run for President someday, before he gets too old. I'm guessing he's figuring 2016 or 2020 depending on if Obama gets reelected.  The House is mostly a dead end for that sort of thing and despite his popularity with the far right Boehner et al have successfully shut him and the rest of the RSC crowd out of leadership.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
I agree
I suspect this is a good way for him to be able to lay the groundwork in case Obama looks vulnerable in 2012 even.
[ Parent ]
Bayh vs Pence
Clash of the Titans. Would become one of the most closely watched races in the country. My guess is Pence is leaking this out there now to try to intimidate Bayh into not running, doubt it will work.  
Considering
he kept most of his money.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Well, Bayh is a gutless coward....
...who is afraid of getting his hair mussed, so it really might work.  I mean, he got scared of by Dan Coats of all people!
[ Parent ]
I don't think
Dan Coats had anything to do with him not running.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Plus
It would have the maximum effect if his intent is to scare Bayh off by doing it right after an election day where the Democrats were slaughtered in Indiana.  
[ Parent ]
Ugh.
Now I pretty much have to vote for Bayh in 2012. He's the only Dem who can win against Pence.

Either way, maybe I should start looking for a new state. This one is going to be broken beyond recognition after 4 years of Pence, and Bayh isn't going to be as good this time as he was last time - which still isn't saying a lot.

Just ugh.  

He has already announced
That he is giving up his leadership post, so not much of a surprise. I wonder if his decision was sparked by Bayh fucking him over this year? HoosierDem says Pence was pissed.  
How did Bayh fuck him over?
Was Pence planning a run against him before he dropped out?

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Bayh bailed on the race so late
That Pence couldn't get the resources together quickly enough to file for a run before the deadline. If Bayh had announced he was retiring even a day or two earlier, Pence might be a Senator-elect right now.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Bayh for Gov
Bayh is also probably running for Gov. Bayh vs. Pence will be a weird race.
[ Parent ]
I'm having a strange sensation
I don't think I've ever felt this before. Might it be...gratitude, even respect for Evan Bayh for keeping Pence out of the senate?

What a novel thing. I'm pretty sure it'll pass once he starts talking again...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Pence wanted to run for Senate this year
For those who remember, he was ahead a bit in the polls in January. But he made the mistake a lot of Republicans made this year- shying away from tough contests.

Him not challenging Bayh could wind up being a career-ending decision, since instead of a very easy Seante race, he now has to take the risk of navigating a competitive IN-Gov primary against Skillman and then going head-on against Evan Bayh.  

[ Parent ]
Skillman
I don't think she'd stand a chance against Pence in a Republican primary, even with Mitch Daniels support. Of course, you know IN Republican's much better. Do you think he would steamroll her or would it be close?  
[ Parent ]
District
Isn't it weird that Pence and Boehner have districts that touch each other?

The Dems don't have 2 major leadership people that have neighboring districts right?

Any one want to guess if Pelosi will be minority speaker or if her leadership career is done?

McCormack & O'Neill
John McCormack (Speaker, 1961-70) and Tip O'Neill (Speaker, 1976-86) represented adjacent districts.
[ Parent ]
Senate
I bet Pence is regretting passing on the Senate race.  
Too Late
I don't think he had a choice.  From what I remember Bayh dropped out too late for Pence to even get in.

Male, 23, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
I think he means before that...
Challenging Bayh straight up. He probably would have won this time.
[ Parent ]
If I were advising Pence
I would've suggested jumping in against Bayh anyway. Fortune favors the bold, as Captain Sisko once said. [/nerd]

Although this year was a bad one for Democratic risk-takers, I think it's usually a good move to risk fighting an entrenched incumbent. If you sit around waiting for the perfect opening, you'll never move up (unless you're Dick Blumenthal, in which case you have to wait decades).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Fortune favors the bold
Unless you're Joe Sestak.
[ Parent ]
He came damn close
Closer than I ever imagined. And he probably saved Altmire and Critz by getting the base out, so it already counts for more than a moral victory.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
If
I recall, Sisko and his fleet were about to be blown back into the stone age until the Klingons came riding in like an avenging angel. Except here in Pennsylvania the avenging angel(s) was American Crossroads/NRSC/Club for Growth/etc.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
MUHAHAHAHA!!
R - 42%
D - 33%
I - 25%

Bayh - 8/94/53 = 47%
Pence - 92/6/47 = 53%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

are you seriously projecting
election results when the race hasn't even started? There hasn't been a poll; they haven't even announced their intentions.

Give it a few months, at least.

[ Parent ]
Never!


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Oh you are a sick sick man...
n/t

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
After
the damage Bayh did to the Democratic party, I wouldn't be sad if he loses. He'd be better off personally changing his registration to independent and going the Lincoln Chafee route.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Bayh
will have no problem winning a D primary even if (Huge if) Hill runs. Most people love Bayh. D's, I's and some R's. I don't want Pence as my Governor and will do all I can to help Bayh win the GE. Though I will probably vote against him in the primary. I've suffered through 6 years of Daniels, I don't want another 4 more.

He'd be better off personally changing his registration to independent and going the Lincoln Chafee route.  

Why? He'll need all the D's he can get, he would not go indy. Plus his dad would kill him. Not to be rude but that is just not a smart idea at all. Lincoln Chafee is much more to the left of his ex party than Bayh is to the right of his party.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Lt. Gov Skillman
What will she do now? She can't beat Pence in a primary. Anyone know if she lives in his district? If so, she could run for that.  
Carson's
I think. I like her, she's a nice person but a lightweight. She would stand no chance against Bayh in the GE or Pence in a GOP primary. LG is probably as far as she goes.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
So
I guess her political career is over. I doubt she'd even run against Pence. She was considering it from what I read. What about Sen if Lugar retires? Without Pence, there is no obvious replacement. Stutzman is still to fresh, as a freshman, I can't see him moving up yet.  
[ Parent ]
If
Lugar retires I would say that both Stutzman and Rotika would both think of running. Both have ran statewide before, Rotika getting elected. Also our state treasurer, Richard Murdock, might run and the former AG Steve Carter. Honestly if Lugar retires I think Pence runs for that, it would be an easier get.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
IN-Gov: Pence Prepping for Gube Bid | 64 comments

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