Liveblog Thread #3

10:19pm: Follow the action over here.

10:17pm: Two House calls: Austin Scott defeats Jim Marshall in GA-08, bringing his hippie-punching days to an end. However, on the plus side, Chellie Pingree holds on in ME-01, despite a few scary last minute polls.

10:15pm: One more gubernatorial call: Deval Patrick wins in Massachusetts. 49-42, with 8 for Cahill. Also looking good in MA: Bill Keating, up 47-41 in MA-10.

10:13pm: Two gubernatorial calls for the GOP. Tom Corbett wins in Pennsylvania, a pickup. He’s only at 53-47, though, with 57% reporting. Also, Dave Heineman wins, very unsurprisingly, in Nebraska.

10:09pm: Mike Kelly has been called the winner in PA-03. Up 55-45 with 77% in.

10:06pm: The GOPers lead the two open seats in Arkansas, the 1st by 10 and the 2nd by 15. Mike Ross looks OK in the 4th, up by 12.

10:05pm: Uh, here’s a surprise. John Robitaille is leading the RI Governor’s race right now, thanks to the split: 34-32 (Chafee)-27 Caprio (17% in). Also, Tom Foley’s up 52-46 with 21% in, continuing the Dems’ CT-Gov jinx.

10:04pm: In Colorado, the GOPers are leading in CO-03 and CO-04, while Ed Perlmutter is hanging on in CO-07.

10:02pm: Two more calls that will bring smiles to the faces of Big Agriculture and Big Diaper: Stephen Fincher in TN-08 (an open seat pickup) and David Vitter in LA-Sen.

9:59pm: One more GOP open seat pickup: Dan Benishek wins MI-01, by a 53-39 margin. Some races where the Dem leads, though, with majority reporting, are AL-02, NC-08, and NC-07 (none by crushing margins though).

9:56pm: Ben Chandler’s up by less than a point in KY-06, with 86% in. Also very close: Gene Taylor leads by about 2, with 36% in in MS-04. NC-02 is a dead heat now, with Renee Elmers up 50-49 with 76% in.

9:54pm: In Pennsylvania, Kathy Dahlkemper’s losing in PA-03, down 54-46. Unfortunately, though, Patrick Murphy has fallen behind in PA-08 after an early lead, now down 52-48. Chris Carney also trails in PA-10, and Jason Altmire is leading but only by a few points in PA-04.

9:52pm: A couple of our northeastern open seats are looking salvageable: RI-01 is 51-44 in favor of Cicilline (with 35% in) and NH-02 is tied at 48 with about a quarter in. Another race to watch: PA-15 keeps being interesting, with John Callahan actually leading 47-46 with 28% in.

9:50pm: Two gubernatorial calls for the GOP, one a pickup: Rick Snyder will be the next governor of Michigan, while Robert Bentley wins in Alabama.

9:48pm: Possibly two pleasant surprises in South Carolina: both SC-Gov and SC-02 are dead heats. Dems trail by less than two points in each race. (That’s Nikki Haley and Joe Wilson, who should be cruising.)

9:45pm: Two calls for Dems in worrisome races: Heath Shuler wins in NC-11 (54-46) and in OH-13, Betty Sutton turns away Mr. Grabbyhands (61-39). In Illinois, we’re up in IL-14 and surprisingly almost tied in IL-11 (though still down a couple), but getting spanked in IL-17.

9:41pm: Mary Fallin (R) is the next Governor of Oklahoma.

9:39pm: David Price is victorious in NC-04, winning 55-45 with 82% in.

9:38pm: Bill Flores knocks off Dem Rep. Chet Edwards in TX-17.

9:37pm: Nick Rahall survives in WV-03. (57-43 with 58% reporting.)

9:36pm: Dan Boren wins OK-02. (61-39 right now.)

9:34pm: Joe Donnelly manages to survive in IN-02. Dennis Daugaard (R) wins SD-Gov.

9:30pm: Steve Southerland beats Dem Rep. Allen Boyd in FL-02. Jo Ann Emerson romps in MO-08. MA-04 has been called for Barney Frank. TN-04 has been called for Scott DesJarlais, who absolutely destroyed Dem Rep. Lincoln Davis by 58-38.

9:28pm: Some more Dem incumbents on the critical list: Phil Hare, Ike Skelton, and Solomon Ortiz — all these dudes are trailing right now.

9:27pm: We may have neglected to mention this on the front page, but Scott Rigell beat Dem frosh Glenn Nye in VA-02.

9:24pm: Dan Seals trails Bob Dold by 53-47 with half the vote in. Not good, but some of the more liberals areas of the district have yet to report, though…

9:23pm: Rick Perry beats Bill White in Texas. Right candidate, wrong year…

9:19pm: Some calls: In FL-12, Dennis Ross beats Dem Lori Edwards. In TN-06, Republican Diane Black picks up another open seat win for the GOP. In NH-01, Frank Guinta beats Dem Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. MS-02 has been called for Dem Rep. Bennie Thompson. Dem Rep. John Larson holds on in CT-01. Dem Gov. Martin O’Malley wins re-election in MD-Gov. And Johnny Isakson wins GA-Sen.

9:18pm: CNN is projecting the House to go to the Republicans. Not really surprising… still lots of details to shake out, though.

9:16pm: Wow. 27% in, and Dem Vince Sheheen is leading Nikki Haley by 53-46 in South Carolina’s gube race.

9:15pm: KS-Gov has been called for Sam Brownback.

9:12pm: In, PA-03 GOPer Mike Kelly leads Kathy Dahlkemper, 54-46 with 15% in. In PA-08, Murphy leads 53-47 with 3% in. In PA-10, Marino leads 52-48 with 22% in. In PA-11, Barletta leads 54-46 (19% in). In PA-15, Dem John Callahan is actually up by 50-44 with 10% in. And in PA-17, Dem Tim Holden leads 68-32 with 3% in.

9:11pm: Uh, with 19% reporting, Quinn leads Brady in IL-Gov 61-32. Wow. (All Cook Co?) Also, Strickland still up in OH-Gov 49-47 with 25% in.

9:07pm: ND-Sen has been called for John Hoeven, NY-Gov has been called for Andrew Cuomo, and NY-Sen-B has been called for Kirstin Gillibrand.

Brace yourselves for maximum impact.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

207 thoughts on “Liveblog Thread #3”

  6. NJ-6: Frank Pallone appears safe, almost all the vote counted in Monmouth County and Anna Little is barely ahead.  Pallone will romp in the other areas, he’ll be fine.

    NJ-12: Sipprelle is putting up a rather dominating performance in Monmouth County, but most of the vote again is counted there and Holt is better in the other areas.  Will be close, but Holt should pull it out.

    NJ-3: Trouble here, Runyan dominated Ocean County and I don’t think Adler will be able to recover in the other areas.  Look for a Runyan win here.

  8. Anything surprising you or not surprising you?

    I kept secretly hoping Dems would keep the House but it’s not surprising that they probably won’t. I am a little surprised VA has just given up completely on Democrats. I’m also surprised at how North Carolina seems to be shrugging off those trends. Perdue isn’t that popular and this is supposed to be a wave year, but they all seem to be up. Do you know about state leg races in NC?

  14. He’s outperforming Obama in a southwest Pennsylvania and Bucks County (!). And Erie County.

    He may pull this off.

  15. All incumbents in the lead now – no Dem turnovers?

    Closest is NC-2, where Etheridge leads 50-48 with 50% counted. All other Dem incumbents are at 54% or more.

  20. the fact the Republicans have the best candidate they have ever put up for Louisville Mayor we won. Greg Fischer won. Some good news. This is a comfort for me as none of my other races are turning out right.  

  22. Am I correct in saying that we’ve averted the total disaster?  It looks like we hold the Senate, haven’t lost all 435 house seats, and Strickland is putting up a fight (though I still don’t feel good there).

  23. That’s really, really annoying…this is the third time he’s gone for that seat, right? Hopefully some more friendly areas are still left to report.

  26. some very good numbers came out for Chafee and Cicilline. I assume this is the city of Newport because the rest of Newport County is in Loughlin’s district, I think. Still, a good sign. If those two win it will make this election MUCH easier for me to deal with.

  32. Pomeroy up 11 votes on Berg (not 11%, 11 votes) with 6% of the vote in. 2.3% of the vote from Grand Forks and none from Fargo (the Dems’ strongest areas) yet, although Berg is from Fargo so he may overperform there.  

  33. Firstly my biggest Surprise

    is that Callahan is actually in the lead 49% to 43% with 10% reporting

    Also

    Critz and Murphy and Dahlkemper have narrow leads

  37.    Cameron County, Pennsylvania.  Remote northwestern tier county.  

       Gives John McCain a 20% victory in 2008.  With 70% of the precincts counted, SESTAK LEADS by 4%.  Vote totals normal, around 1700.  That is WEIRD.

      Unless it’s a boring data entry error.

  38. to me only North Carolina and if Chandler holds on Kentucky look good to me in the house. I’m afraid, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be toxic.

  42. closing in on Bass, only 1 point behind with 22% of the precincts in. Bummed out that Shea-Porter got defeated, but at least New Hampshire might have a firebrand congresswoman next year.

  52. Perriello is some kind of overachiever. He lost an R+5 district by just 4 points against a non-ridiculous opponent in an all-time awful year for Dems. Dude has a future.

    How many people thought he’d get a higher % of the vote than Boucher would?  

  56. Gerald E. “Gerry” Connolly (D-INC) – 86,105 49.09%

    Keith S. Fimian (R) 85,657 48.83%

    140 of 168 precincts reporting

    Given that there’s more Fairfax left than Prince William, I still think Connolly holds on (barely).

  65. nearly 46% of the vote in, Ortiz is down 3 points to the person who allowed himself to be photographed in pajamas with a scantly dressed woman. No kidding. Ugh….

  68. He’s been such a strong voice on matters like DADT that make gutless wonders out of a lot of other Democrats. To see him lose to an empty suit would suck.

  69. Chandler is up 866 votes. All counties in that district are in except Lincoln county, which has not reported at all. It went for McConnell by a total of 820 votes (55%) in 2008, when he got 53% of the vote statewide. Looks like it could go either way.

  70. All of the Prince William precincts are in except absentees and provisionals. There are still 8 left in Fairfax County, most of which are Dem-leaning, at least in ’08. Connolly is only up 500 votes right now.

  74.    Sestak is getting killed (relatively) in the Philly suburbs, including his home county. But he’s doing as well or even better than Obama in the Lehigh Valley and the rustbelt southwest.

  75. He is leading by 900 votes and only Lincoln County is left to report – Chandler got 62% there in 2008.

  77. NJ-3, Runyan appears on his way to a win:

    http://www.politickernj.com/42…

    In NJ-6, Pallone has pulled into the lead and will only add to it.  He’ll win rather comfortable I believe.

    In NJ-12, Holt has closed the gap due to a 7 point margin in Middlesex County.  But with almost half the vote in he still trails by around 4 points.  Much of the outstanding vote is in Mercer County where Holt should put up big numbers. In the end he should win by 5-6 points.

  83. my god. My two term Prosecutor is losing to a kid who just graduated law school. My Judge who is former prosecutor who has been in politics forever is losing.  My state rep and my state senator who are former leaders are losing to complete baggers one who has literally not campaigned. My Treasurer as barely leading against a former substitute lunch lady who has not campaigned at all. Fuck.  

  84. no matter what else happens. Robitaille is overperforming in some of the blue-collar suburbs like Cranston and Johnston, as well as Chafee’s hometown and second largest city of Warwick. But none of Providence is in yet.

  85. my god. My two term Prosecutor is losing to a kid who just graduated law school. My Judge who is former prosecutor who has been in politics forever is losing.  My state rep and my state senator who are former leaders are losing to complete baggers one who has literally not campaigned. My Treasurer as barely leading against a former substitute lunch lady who has not campaigned at all. Fuck.  

  86. my god. My two term Prosecutor is losing to a kid who just graduated law school. My Judge who is former prosecutor who has been in politics forever is losing.  My state rep and my state senator who are former leaders are losing to complete baggers one who has literally not campaigned. My Treasurer as barely leading against a former substitute lunch lady who has not campaigned at all. Fuck.  

  88. IL-10 is making me really nervous. If Brady wins, he can protect Dold in redistricting (although on the bright side that probably means Bean gets protected too).

  94. Amendment 6 which places guidelines on how congressional districts can be drawn is passing with 62% of the vote.  It needs 60% to win.  The League of Women Voters and many organizations are supporting it.  It had support from about 90% of Democrats, so it was seen as putting curbs on the Republican legislature.

  97. It looks like Dems are losing EVERYWHERE on a ticket.  I’m talking down to university and school boards.

    People are indiscriminately throwing everyone out with a D by their name.

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