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Today on SSP

by: James L.

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 3:12 PM EDT


  • Social Media & Emergency Contingencies: If you haven't been following us on Twitter and Facebook, my God, now is the right time to start. We'll be tweeting all night in addition to our regular stream of front page content here. In the event of a server crash here at SSP World HQ, our Twitter feed will still be active. We've also set up a back-up site on Blogspot, which we'll use if white smoke starts pouring out of our servers. SSP fans may want to bookmark this, just in case.

  • Maps: We've lovingly created a super-sexy poll closing times map and chart, complete with a list of key races. Bookmark it for later!

  • County Benchmarks: Advanced election watchers take note! The skinny tie crowd down at SSP Labs & Research has created some useful county benchmark charts for 10 key states.

  • Babka: Want to put your pride on the line for a chance to win a loaf of the most delicious chocolate babka known to man? Enter our predictions contest before 6pm Eastern. (Providing that you have a valid SSP account that was registered before 12:00am today.)

  • Race Ratings: Earlier today and yesterday, we posted our final House, Senate, and Gubernatorial race ratings.

Feel free to use this thread for any general pre-game chatter and tailgating.
James L. :: Today on SSP
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Today on SSP | 128 comments
Wondering about Boyd
Voted for him earlier, but the conventional wisdom is that he's doomed. This district has a constant base for him in Tallahassee and Gadsden county, I'm just curious why it seems he can only muster around 40% in all polls.

I see him finishing with no less than 44%.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

I'm not sure if Boyd
has ever been held below 60%.  If he has, it was 58 or 59.  

I suspect the primary really hurt him.  He only won 51-49 against Al Lawson, State Senate Minority Leader, who is African American.  I don't know that it was particularly polarizing, but the polls suggest he may be having a hard time bringing Lawson voters back into his fold.  Southerland would have to win a lot of registered Democrats to win this district in line with his polling, so Boyd is bleeding Dems somewhere.  

In addition, the primary put him in a position where he had to veer left, resulting directly (IMO) in his "yes" vote on HCR.  

The DCCC never gave up on that race, so it may be closer than people think.  Given the polls though, hard to predict victory.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Havent most polls been GOP internals?
I don't think we've seen many private polls.

Boyd has never been well liked here by liberal Dems, but a lot of us liberal college students are happy with his HCR vote. I was frankly surprised he voted yes.

Many of the black voters in Tallahassee and Gadsden don't seem to have anything wrong with Boyd other than the fact he isn't as liberal as Al Lawson.

But Boyd has always managed to hold down the margins in the rural counties outside of Leon and Gadsden, I assume that's where he is bleeding. Lots of conservadems out there, just depends on how much they turn out. AA turnout seems normal here in Tally, and most older black folk I know did vote straight dem except maybe half or more voted Crist. They might not love Boyd but they would rather have him than Southerland.

If Boyd holds this, I think the night will be pretty good.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
If Boyd wins
the night should be way better than expectations.  

Mark Penn's poll had a 12-point race, similar to the many Republican polls.  But the Penn polls seem similar in their results to Republican internals.  Dems have never tried to counter the polling narrative here.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Id imagine DCCC internals
have this at single digits, enough that they have spent some money here.

Even if Boyd barely loses, I think if his margin is small it will be very very good for Alex Sink.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
IIRC
Sink won the 2nd in her CFO race against Tom Lee.  I don't expect a repeat this time in this environment, but Alex and her twang can potentially hold down the margins in Florida's "Little Dixie."

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Hahaha
I fully expect her to lose the 2nd, I've seen a decent amount of Rick Scott signs in the coastal rural towns in the district. But she will win Orange county hopefully by bigger margins to make up for losses in N FL.

I think a decent amount of Cuban voters will also split ticket for Rubio/Sink, Scott sends a lot of racist vibes, esp with his stance on immigration.

Also, if she can win Hillsborough and Pinellas by a few %, she will win statewide. It also helps she is from the Tampa Bay area, many older folks are familiar with her and like her 'Twang'. lol.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
The swing votes for Southern Blue Dogs
are largely those of older white women, usually cast in rejection of Republican radicalism and its potential local consequences (worse poverty, racial violence, more male and religious chauvinism).

This year they might not see voting for a conservaDem as effective at that.

[ Parent ]
Backup Site
You guys are awesome

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
So I guess I've been reading too many posts here on SSP....
that I actually dreamt that the polls had already started to close.
Apparently Periello, Nye, and Childers lost their seats while Gene Taylor and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin went on to hold their seats narrowly.

Here's hoping that the actual elections turns out better for us

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

I'd take your dream
in a heartbeat w/r/t those five seats.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I dreamt that Herseth lost
Make of that what you will.
[ Parent ]
Had
no dreams last night, which is weird because I always dream and have dreamed politics before. I have a lot of gut feelings about races and I keep thinking Hill is going to lose. I think it's my mind preparing for the worst. Then again my gut feeling was that Coakely was going to win. I also had a day dream today that we lost 100 seats, and I also had a day dream where we lost 20 and everyone was celebrating.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I
dreamt that Bennet lost, which might be the case tonight.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I dreamt
that I had an affair with "Congresswoman Roby".

Besides the fact that I'm a pig, take it for what it's worth.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
Predictions
Due to the extreme traffic you guys will get, the SSP Emergency Contingencies go into effect no later than 8:30pm Eastern and the SSP mothership crashes, unable to fully recover until about 1am Eastern.

Also, from your SiteMeter stats, you break 75,000 visits for a single day. (On that-- you should add the SiteMeter counter to SSP-in-exile to keep counting. It should be a fun number by the end of the night.)

If I'm right with either of those, any chance at babka? I've got very little confidence in my picks for the actual predictions contest.

Well....

The outcomes might be such that the habitual offenders can keep their F5 Button OCD in check tomight. ;-)

I've found refreshing about 2-3 minutes apart to be a decent compromise between participating in the emotional drama, absorbing information, and contributing posts that are not trivial or treatises.

[ Parent ]
TPM says Ohio Dems hitting targets
just a little tidbit

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

the cleveland plain dealer
was reporting earlier that turnout was down in Cuyahoga County, which I found surprising seeing as:

A. We are electing an all-new county executive and county council to replace the old county commissioners, which is a big deal for local government

B. My house has been personally visited by canvassing volunteers twice in the past week, a sign that the ODP and OFA are moneybombing the area with manpower.

C. The weather is absolutely freaking beautiful, hardly a cloud in the sky, so no excuse there.  

If turnout here is below that of 2006, it will be solely because of population loss in Cleveland and the inner suburbs (contrary to popular belief, in the outer areas of Cuyahoga there are cities that are exploding in population growth, like my hometown of Strongsville)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
DCCCyclone crunched the numbers...
...and found the PD's numbers to be rather propogandic.  Yes, voter turnout is down, but the population of the county is down.  As a percentage of voters, we are in the 2006 ballpark.

Strongsville may be doing well, but a lot of the other outer ring suburbs are not, BTW.  Solon is still really hurting from the foreclosure crisis, for example.

[ Parent ]
I'm feeling good right now...
All the good juju looks pretty anecdotal, but I don't think the world is going to end tonight. I'm sticking with losses between 45-55 in the House and between 5-7 in the Senate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Reminds me...
Of the Simpsons episode with teacher's strike and the guy jumps out window because he thinks the PTA has disbanded.

Someone post that clip for me I can't on my phone.  

Lol.

[ Parent ]
I've embedded it here before.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm sticking with
32 in house, 4 in senate.  Someone has to cheerlead!
[ Parent ]
I'm about ready to puke...
Damn nerves are shot.  
[ Parent ]
Well
at least for me I have the Giants victory parade down Market street to look forward to tomorrow.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
puke?
Just go to Youtube and watch Ramones videos until your stomach settles.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Who are Ben and Trent on the SSP backup blog?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Ben
is our behind-the-scenes tech guru, and Trent is former FPer and still our southern correspondent.
[ Parent ]
Is Ben the guy
who will get the site back and running if it goes down? ;)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
One piece of advice pre-game
If you're going to Kos, only look at the front page postings. The diaries are already filling up with conspiracy stuff.  
Kos is already blaming OFA and Obama...
for losses.  Given the denial becoming conspiracy theories in the diaries and the front-pagers unable to hide their giddiness at the losses...  
[ Parent ]
That's
why I rarely go to Daily Kos anymore. Its like trying to convince yourself that you didn't lose that girl you loved, but you did.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Me too because
it is sad really...the knives are already drawn and ready to stab at will...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Sounds like fun
I can't say I've ever been to that site and won't be heading there tonight.
[ Parent ]
Getting off work in about 20 minutes...
going to the neighborhood liquour store to buy rum and coke.  I will be kicking it old school tonight but I will not watch any election returns at all (either online or on the TV)

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
HEY! Me too!
I get off in an hour, but same plan with the liquor store.

I invited people over, figure if we're going down, I'm going down party style. Got giant sheets of butcher paper on my wall with lists of all the races that matter (House, Senate, Gov, Texas House, map of TX state house)

Make the best of what you can.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I'm going to my poker game ....
.... will get a bit liquored up, and then turn attention to the election around 10pm or so!
[ Parent ]
Turnout update from OR SOS
   As of 1:45pm, 64% of Republicans, 59% of Democrats, and 41% of those Not Affiliated with any party have returned their ballots.

That gap can be expected to close (Multnomah County voters) but even if maintain it we should be fine with a 10% reg. edge.

Is anyone else
Feeling strangely calm right now?  
I always do at this point on E-day

[ Parent ]
Republicans should be...
Coons and Blumenthal are panicking about turnout, they're voters are not materializing - which the pollsters predicted.  It's one thing to say you're going to vote for somebody, it's another to go do it.  
[ Parent ]
I think there is a real possibility...
That pollsters underpolled the turnout gaps because Dems got louder to fake a comeback of sorts when it didn't exist.  

[ Parent ]
Apathy maybe
The polls showed them both winning easily, especially Coons. That makes a lot of people less interested in going to vote.

I think Coons will win but I do wonder about Carney, if there is low turnout.

[ Parent ]
Who says they're panicking

[ Parent ]
Over here.
He's referring to posts over here.  But I think "panicking" might be misrepresenting the truth.

[ Parent ]
Is that true O'Donnell might get 45-47?
That would be ridiculous and those voters must just be desperate to seem anti-establishment. She seems to have a lot of voters which help her overperform but with the campaign she has run to get past 40%, geez. I just hope that doesn't affect Carney.
[ Parent ]
Also
There's also this Politico Post.
[ Parent ]
Lombardo's a Republican
Given the time stamp, he's certainly not basing it on exit polls.

Anyway, so if she gets 45?  As long as she loses.

[ Parent ]
Right
In 2010, a win is a win is a win.  No fretting about lower-than-expected margins of victory.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Blumenthal has just stated...
...that he was happy with what he saw in turnout.  Remember that a lot of the Dem vote was done early there.
[ Parent ]
Source?
... or sorceress?  
[ Parent ]
From other thread here -
[ Parent ]
not so much
If you trace the links back the "panicking" disappears completely. Nice try, though.
[ Parent ]
Delaware and Connecticut
are kind of... I don't know, not places where I'd be that worried about apathy.  If Coons isn't getting his voters to the polls, well, some people probably think "there's no way that loon would actually win, right?"  It's a far different situation from NV or WI, where if Reid and Feingold are panicking about turnout, well, most of their voters have no excuse for not showing up because everybody knows those races will be close.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
First time experiment
No TV.  All web.
IN polls closing in 40 mins
Wow.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry
Didn't mean to reply to you.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
40 mins!
It's not even 3 o'clock here in CA!
[ Parent ]
I know.
But it's good - we can go to bed at a real time, and still have 90% of the results.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Same here.
First election night I haven't been watching CNN. Or anything else.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
PPP Never Stops: Taking suggestions for where to poll this weekend
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/st...
They are already polling the 2012 cycle this weekend!
Virginia seems like a good place to start.
President, US Senate, could do Governor 2013, and a lot of other fun stuff.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Exit polls
Republican favorability 41/53
Democratic favorability 43/53


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Hate exit polls ever since 2004
When I see them I just cringe, no matter what the results. I guess I need to get over that.
[ Parent ]
Is Cornyn getting nervous?
Kind of odd to - with voting still going on - try to make a play to get Democrats to party switch. That's only something which should be talked about after the election. It implies you may not have enough seats on your own.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-...

Maybe not
The GOP had won the majority before Dick Shelby and Ben Campbell jumped ship in 1994.
[ Parent ]
That's what I meant
Why not wait until after the election, when you know you will have enough seats? It just seems counterproductive, and defeatist, to turn the focus on trying to get party-switchers. Didn't the primary results of the past year tell him people are not fond of party switchers?
[ Parent ]
Maybe he thinks they've going to win WV and WA
He's a very aggressive (and arrogant) guy.
[ Parent ]
Sounds like he's confident...
...that he can get to a 50-50 tie...
[ Parent ]
Yep, Dems are locked in at 52 at best.
Looking to shake loose three votes.  
[ Parent ]
Means nothing
He's blowing smoke.
[ Parent ]
Really.....
The GOP might look to other Democrats like Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) or even an incoming Democratic senator like West Virginia's Joe Manchin, should he prevail, to cross over to the other side of the aisle.

[ Parent ]
If I'm Barbara Boxer, I'm probably freaking out that Linda McMahon might overperform


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Yes I think all California politicians should be
shitting bricks about what's going on in Connecticut.  Nothing means more to Californians.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Are you Barbara Boxer?
I think that's the most important question I can ask after that post.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Bad night
To have a midterm the next day on. I'm in Italy studying so it's going to be a late one for me. Luckily my class isn't until 1 pm. Luckily, though, it's only a five hour difference instead of six right now because day lights savings time ended here before it does in the U.S.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
Well everyone
This is it...  Good Luck and in memory of Obi-Wan Kenobi "May the force be with you"
I just sent 5 of my friends to vote!
They weren't planning on it. Polls close in less than twenty minutes here!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Great work
It's so easy to find a reason not to vote. You should be proud.
[ Parent ]
I was so happy
when I convinced them to go and vote!  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Isn't it such a joy when that happens?
Congrats and good for you!
[ Parent ]
Awesome! Good job.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'll be watching that race closely
Some pundits think Hill is doomed, so if it looks like he's gonna survive, this may be a better night for us than we had thought.

That and IN-02 and KY-06 are the barometers in the first round of results... if Donnelly and/or Chandler is in real trouble, well, it's gonna be a long night.  (If Yarmuth is in trouble, it's gonna be a REALLY long night.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
My
gut says Hill loses. But my gut is probably trying to get ready for the worst. The Mark Penn poll had Hill up two, that is the ONLY publicly released poll of the cycle. Seriously one effing poll the whole cycle.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
My gut
is telling me it's hungry.  Time for some Doritos.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I
ordered a pizza.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I went to Starbucks and Chipotle.
It's my comfort food and drink.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I'm just going to hold out until lunchtime
The last polls close at 1 PM here (in Hawaii) and by then it'll be mostly over. who knows if I'll even have an appetite.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Very
high turnout in Louisville.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Source?


26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20101102/NEWS0106/311020028/1008/NEWS01/Turnout+higher+than+average+at+Louisville+polls++official+says


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Is that Yarmuth or Chandler?
I know it's for the Senate race too -- I just don't know enough about Louisville voting patterns to say which candidate they'd go for. Some people I know who lived there said it has a lot of very conservative pockets.
[ Parent ]
Yarmuth.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Yarmuth
Chandler represents Lexington/Frankfurt and the surrounding area.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Louisville
is Yarmuth's CD and it will go for Conway by a large margin, even if he loses by ten.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks everyone
Good luck to them both. I still chuckle when I think of that "Love on the Rocks" ad Yarmuth did for Bush/Northup.
[ Parent ]
Some issue results
Voters about equally divided on stimulus and repeal of health care.  Obama at -9.  Which must mean 45%.  Not great, but not terrible either.
Link
[ Parent ]
That's not as bad as I would have thought

[ Parent ]
Put this down as "could be worse"
it looks like the pre-election polls and prognostication (Silver, et al.) is going to be basically right

50-60 losses in the House
7-8 in Senate

Obviously, there'll be regional variations, but I feared worse (but of course hoped for better!)

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Here we go...
Once more into the breach, dear friends!  Once more!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
NY
Just voted in Republican Suffolk County.

Turnout was insane.  I have never waited on a line like that in 10 years of voting.  Not sure if thats a plus or minus, on the plus side the age and race of the people was very mixed.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Polls closed in IN.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
And parts of KY.


26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Yep
Darn it, count those vote already!  No ganja breaks tonight.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Time to get this party started!


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Let's get ready to rrruuummmmbbleeeeee


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Indiana elections website
http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/ele...

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
1st results in!!!!!!
CNN claims Paul leads Conway 61-39. can't tell which county it's coming from though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Nvm
it is from Taylor County in central KY.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Now it says 52-48.


26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Taylor
Is that a really conservative area?
[ Parent ]
yep
it's also barely anything even within Taylor County.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yes -- have friends with family from there -- Paul should do really well there

[ Parent ]
Also Guthrie leads 73-27 in KY-02.
SHOCKER

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Chandler leads 62-38... heh
Who knows where those votes are coming from though.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Where are you getting these results from?
sounds faster than CNN/NYTimes

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
CNN's website.


26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Never mind, they're from Powell County
Which went 57% for McCain... so maybe a good sign?

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Appears to be from Powell Co.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
If it's any consolation....
assuming that 61-39 margin holds in Taylor county, Conway is performing 9-12 pts better than Obama, Kerry or Gore ever did (although those r presidential years).

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
[ Parent ]
Taylor
Taylor county

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Any links...
to AP precincts reporting going up here at SSP? I want IN an KY results. My hunger must be fed.
Nevada early exit: dead heat
Chandler
Chandler down 54-46

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
What area is that from?
What part of his district I mean.
[ Parent ]
Looks like less than 1000 votes in

[ Parent ]
Today on SSP | 128 comments

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