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County Benchmarks

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 2:39 PM EDT

For all of you advanced poll watchers out there, here are some diagnostic tools for seeing whether we're on track to clear the 50% mark in 10 key states. Long-time SSPers are familiar with the general idea here: take the most important counties and their 2008 presidential numbers, and just perform a simple adjustment ratcheting things down (or up) to 50.

This, of course, is what experts would call "naive extrapolation," assuming that variation will be identical from county-to-county, and not assuming that various candidates have regional strengths that might cause the numbers to be weighted differently than the presidential map, or that turnout may vary from the 2008 percentages among counties (i.e. counties with large minority populations or college campuses may make a smaller percent of the whole state compared with 2008). (One other problem is that I'm not sure what exactly the AP is going to be reporting tonight, with their decision to end precinct-level reporting. I assume there will still be county-level reporting, though!) With those caveats in mind, here you go:

California

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/48	61/37
Los Angeles	24.4	58/40	69/29
San Diego	9.1	43/55	54/44
Orange	8.5	37/61	48/50
Santa Clara	4.9	58/40	69/29
Riverside	4.8	39/59	50/48
Alameda	4.6	68/30	79/19
San Bernardino	4.5	41/57	52/46
Sacramento	4.0	47/50	58/39
Contra Costa	3.3	57/41	68/30
San Francisco	2.8	73/27	84/16
Ventura	2.5	44/53	55/42
San Mateo	2.2	62/36	73/25
Fresno	2.0	39/59	50/48

Much more over the flip...

Crisitunity :: County Benchmarks

Colorado

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/49	54/45
Jefferson	12.3	50/49	54/45
El Paso	11.4	36/63	40/59
Denver	11.3	71/27	75/23
Arapahoe	11.1	52/47	56/43
Boulder	7.2	68/30	72/26
Larimer	6.9	50/48	54/44
Adams	6.7	54/44	58/40
Douglas	6.3	37/62	41/58
Weld	4.4	41/57	45/53
Pueblo	3.0	53/46	57/42
Mesa	2.9	30/68	34/64

Florida

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/49	51/48
Miami-Dade	10.3	57/43	58/42
Broward	8.7	66/33	67/32
Palm Beach	7.0	60/39	61/38
Hillsborough	6.1	52/47	53/46
Pinellas	5.5	52/46	53/45
Orange	5.5	58/41	59/40
Duval	5.0	48/52	49/51
Brevard	3.4	43/57	44/56
Lee	3.2	43/56	44/55
Polk	2.9	45/53	46/52
Volusia	2.9	51/48	52/47
Pasco	2.6	47/52	48/51
Sarasota	2.5	48/50	49/49
Seminole	2.5	47/52	48/51

Illinois

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/49	62/37
Cook	38.7	64/35	76/23
DuPage	7.6	43/56	55/44
Lake	5.4	47/52	59/40
Will	5.2	44/55	56/43
Kane	3.5	43/55	55/43
McHenry	2.5	40/58	52/46
Madison	2.3	42/56	54/44
Winnebago	2.3	43/55	55/43
St. Clair	2.3	48/50	60/38

Kentucky

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/49	41/57
Jefferson	19.4	64/34	55/43
Fayette	7.0	61/38	52/47
Kenton	3.7	48/51	39/60
Boone	2.8	41/58	32/67
Warren	2.4	49/50	40/59
Daviess	2.4	53/45	44/54
Campbell	2.2	48/51	39/60
Hardin	2.2	48/51	39/60

Nevada

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/48	55/43
Clark	67.3	53/44	58/39
Washoe	18.6	50/48	55/43
Douglas	2.7	36/62	41/57
Carson City	2.4	44/53	49/48
Lyon	2.2	35/63	40/58

Ohio

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/48	51/47
Cuyahoga	11.7	68/36	69/30
Franklin	9.8	59/40	60/39
Hamilton	7.4	52/47	53/46
Montgomery	4.9	51/47	52/46
Summit	4.9	57/42	58/41
Lucas	3.9	64/34	65/33
Stark	3.3	51/47	52/46
Butler	3.0	37/62	38/61
Lorain	2.6	57/41	58/40
Mahoning	2.2	61/37	62/36
Lake	2.1	48/50	49/49

Pennsylvania

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/48	54/44
Philadelphia	11.9	79/20	83/16
Allegheny	10.9	53/46	57/42
Montgomery	7.0	56/43	60/39
Bucks	5.5	50/49	54/45
Delaware	4.9	56/43	60/39
Chester	4.2	50/49	54/45
Lancaster	3.8	37/59	43/55
York	3.2	38/60	42/56
Berks	3.0	50/49	54/45
Westmoreland	3.0	37/62	41/58
Lehigh	2.5	53/46	57/42
Luzerne	2.3	49/49	53/45
Northampton	2.3	51/47	55/43
Dauphin	2.2	50/49	54/45
Erie	2.5	55/44	59/39

Washington

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/47	57/40
King	30.3	63/35	70/28
Pierce	10.9	48/50	55/43
Snohomish	10.6	51/46	58/39
Spokane	7.2	41/56	48/49
Clark	6.0	45/53	52/46
Thurston	4.2	53/45	60/38
Kitsap	4.1	48/50	55/43
Whatcom	3.3	51/47	58/40
Yakima	2.5	37/61	44/54
Benton	2.4	29/69	36/62

West Virginia

County	% of 2008 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2008 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/49	43/56
Kanawha	11.6	56/42	49/49
Berkeley	5.2	50/49	43/56
Wood	5.1	42/56	35/63
Cabell	4.9	51/47	44/54
Monongalia	4.7	58/40	51/47
Harrison	4.5	49/49	42/56
Raleigh	4.0	43/55	36/62
Putnam	3.5	45/54	38/61
Marion	3.3	56/41	49/48
Jefferson	3.2	59/40	52/47
Mercer	2.9	42/56	35/63
Ohio	2.7	51/48	44/55
Wayne	2.2	47/51	40/58
Fayette	2.1	55/43	48/50
Marshall	2.0	50/48	43/55

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County Benchmarks | 13 comments

Wow that is awesome

Also I never knew about King country being such a big % of Washington. I always knew each decent-sized state has a big county or 2 (Cook in IL, Philadelphia in PA, etc) I didn't know King was close to 1/3 of the electorate in Washington (I know its based on 2008 only but still it surprised me).

by: rdw72777 @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:06:07 PM UTC

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King County

Don't they count their votes veeeeeeery slowly, compared to the rest of the state? If I remember right, that's why Gregoire looked like she was a goner in 2004 and only pulled it out at the very end with King Co ballots.

If that's true, I'm betting Rossi looks like a big winner for much of the night with Murray rallying very late.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

by: Ellipsis @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:11:31 PM UTC

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Each county reports in one batch after polls close

So if Murray rallies, it would be across several days.

Radical or something, WA-07

by: sdkWA @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 22:54:28 PM UTC

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Hamilton Country, OH

Of all the counties listed here, this one seems to me to have the oddest behavior. In presidential years it performs a few points better for Republicans than they do statewide, but Obama actually did slightly better there than his statewide margin. But in 2006 both Brown and Strickland lost this county even as both were winning in a landslide.

This county seems to be a prime example of Crisitunity's "naive extrapolation", anyone have any idea why the midterm falloff seems to be so huge for Dems here? I'm guessing Strickland loses big here again even if he does win reelection. (fingers crossed!)

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

by: Ellipsis @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:07:21 PM UTC

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Hamilton

is both Cincinnati and its suburbs, so you have a large African-American population that votes in presidential years, and also a lot of conservative suburbs that vote with clockwork precision. It's notorious for swinging widely between on and off years. It's why we lost OH-01 in 2006, won it in 2008, and will lose it again shortly.

by: Crisitunity @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:24:15 PM UTC

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Cincinnati

is exactly as you describe, and the effect of the racial dropoff in non-presidential years is huge there because a lot of racially polarized voting occurs in the Cincinnati area and in southwestern Ohio in general.

Columbus has a bit of the same phenomenon, but it's not as pronounced because democrats usually fare much better with whites in Cbus than they do in Cincy.

The race between Kasich and Strickland is going to look more like an old-fashioned DLC democratic map, with lots of blue counties in southeastern Ohio (Strickland's base) while Kasich will do better in Central Ohio, his base.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

by: StephenCLE @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:48:32 PM UTC

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Yes, The Inverted C

Toledo east to Cleveland, south to Youngstown and Steubenville, west to Chillicothe and Portsmouth. I just wonder if that coalition is still a mathematical winner in 2010 with the growth of Columbus.

by: Mark @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 20:50:04 PM UTC

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Illinois

In the 2008 presidential election, Sen. Obama underperformed his statewide average in 101 of 102 counties.

Guess which one was the exception.

by: emilysdad @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 20:16:46 PM UTC

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Cook

which may be the only county Giannoulias wins tonight (and he could still theoretically win even if that is the case).

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

by: spiderdem @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 20:31:56 PM UTC

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Had No Idea.....

....that Berkeley County had become the second most populous county in West Virginia. It's come a long way since the 80s.

by: Mark @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 20:47:52 PM UTC

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Horrible turnout in Hillsborough Florida

And I mean terrible. As of 3:00 we have 13% turnout.

13%!!!!

Awful.

by: fladem @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 21:37:50 PM UTC

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That's bad news

Sink's base is there, and low turnout suggests low Democratic turnout. Is the weather bad or something? You'd think with Sink and Crist running statewide voters would be motivated there.

by: jwaalk @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 21:44:10 PM UTC

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If you wanted

Maybe you could check out my county baselines for California, Maryland, Oregon and Washington. I have maps and I incorporate past races with the candidates running.

http://swingstateproject.com/d...

for more election analysis, visit http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,

by: Alibguy @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 22:07:46 PM UTC

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County Benchmarks | 13 comments