County Benchmarks

For all of you advanced poll watchers out there, here are some diagnostic tools for seeing whether we’re on track to clear the 50% mark in 10 key states. Long-time SSPers are familiar with the general idea here: take the most important counties and their 2008 presidential numbers, and just perform a simple adjustment ratcheting things down (or up) to 50.

This, of course, is what experts would call “naive extrapolation,” assuming that variation will be identical from county-to-county, and not assuming that various candidates have regional strengths that might cause the numbers to be weighted differently than the presidential map, or that turnout may vary from the 2008 percentages among counties (i.e. counties with large minority populations or college campuses may make a smaller percent of the whole state compared with 2008). (One other problem is that I’m not sure what exactly the AP is going to be reporting tonight, with their decision to end precinct-level reporting. I assume there will still be county-level reporting, though!) With those caveats in mind, here you go:

California

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 61/37
Los Angeles 24.4 58/40 69/29
San Diego 9.1 43/55 54/44
Orange 8.5 37/61 48/50
Santa Clara 4.9 58/40 69/29
Riverside 4.8 39/59 50/48
Alameda 4.6 68/30 79/19
San Bernardino 4.5 41/57 52/46
Sacramento 4.0 47/50 58/39
Contra Costa 3.3 57/41 68/30
San Francisco 2.8 73/27 84/16
Ventura 2.5 44/53 55/42
San Mateo 2.2 62/36 73/25
Fresno 2.0 39/59 50/48

Much more over the flip…

Colorado

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 54/45
Jefferson 12.3 50/49 54/45
El Paso 11.4 36/63 40/59
Denver 11.3 71/27 75/23
Arapahoe 11.1 52/47 56/43
Boulder 7.2 68/30 72/26
Larimer 6.9 50/48 54/44
Adams 6.7 54/44 58/40
Douglas 6.3 37/62 41/58
Weld 4.4 41/57 45/53
Pueblo 3.0 53/46 57/42
Mesa 2.9 30/68 34/64

Florida

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 51/48
Miami-Dade 10.3 57/43 58/42
Broward 8.7 66/33 67/32
Palm Beach 7.0 60/39 61/38
Hillsborough 6.1 52/47 53/46
Pinellas 5.5 52/46 53/45
Orange 5.5 58/41 59/40
Duval 5.0 48/52 49/51
Brevard 3.4 43/57 44/56
Lee 3.2 43/56 44/55
Polk 2.9 45/53 46/52
Volusia 2.9 51/48 52/47
Pasco 2.6 47/52 48/51
Sarasota 2.5 48/50 49/49
Seminole 2.5 47/52 48/51

Illinois

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 62/37
Cook 38.7 64/35 76/23
DuPage 7.6 43/56 55/44
Lake 5.4 47/52 59/40
Will 5.2 44/55 56/43
Kane 3.5 43/55 55/43
McHenry 2.5 40/58 52/46
Madison 2.3 42/56 54/44
Winnebago 2.3 43/55 55/43
St. Clair 2.3 48/50 60/38

Kentucky

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 41/57
Jefferson 19.4 64/34 55/43
Fayette 7.0 61/38 52/47
Kenton 3.7 48/51 39/60
Boone 2.8 41/58 32/67
Warren 2.4 49/50 40/59
Daviess 2.4 53/45 44/54
Campbell 2.2 48/51 39/60
Hardin 2.2 48/51 39/60

Nevada

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 55/43
Clark 67.3 53/44 58/39
Washoe 18.6 50/48 55/43
Douglas 2.7 36/62 41/57
Carson City 2.4 44/53 49/48
Lyon 2.2 35/63 40/58

Ohio

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 51/47
Cuyahoga 11.7 68/36 69/30
Franklin 9.8 59/40 60/39
Hamilton 7.4 52/47 53/46
Montgomery 4.9 51/47 52/46
Summit 4.9 57/42 58/41
Lucas 3.9 64/34 65/33
Stark 3.3 51/47 52/46
Butler 3.0 37/62 38/61
Lorain 2.6 57/41 58/40
Mahoning 2.2 61/37 62/36
Lake 2.1 48/50 49/49

Pennsylvania

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 54/44
Philadelphia 11.9 79/20 83/16
Allegheny 10.9 53/46 57/42
Montgomery 7.0 56/43 60/39
Bucks 5.5 50/49 54/45
Delaware 4.9 56/43 60/39
Chester 4.2 50/49 54/45
Lancaster 3.8 37/59 43/55
York 3.2 38/60 42/56
Berks 3.0 50/49 54/45
Westmoreland 3.0 37/62 41/58
Lehigh 2.5 53/46 57/42
Luzerne 2.3 49/49 53/45
Northampton 2.3 51/47 55/43
Dauphin 2.2 50/49 54/45
Erie 2.5 55/44 59/39

Washington

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/47 57/40
King 30.3 63/35 70/28
Pierce 10.9 48/50 55/43
Snohomish 10.6 51/46 58/39
Spokane 7.2 41/56 48/49
Clark 6.0 45/53 52/46
Thurston 4.2 53/45 60/38
Kitsap 4.1 48/50 55/43
Whatcom 3.3 51/47 58/40
Yakima 2.5 37/61 44/54
Benton 2.4 29/69 36/62

West Virginia

County % of 2008
statewide vote		 What we need to
break 50% statewide		 2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 43/56
Kanawha 11.6 56/42 49/49
Berkeley 5.2 50/49 43/56
Wood 5.1 42/56 35/63
Cabell 4.9 51/47 44/54
Monongalia 4.7 58/40 51/47
Harrison 4.5 49/49 42/56
Raleigh 4.0 43/55 36/62
Putnam 3.5 45/54 38/61
Marion 3.3 56/41 49/48
Jefferson 3.2 59/40 52/47
Mercer 2.9 42/56 35/63
Ohio 2.7 51/48 44/55
Wayne 2.2 47/51 40/58
Fayette 2.1 55/43 48/50
Marshall 2.0 50/48 43/55

13 thoughts on “County Benchmarks”

  1. Also I never knew about King country being such a big % of Washington.  I always knew each decent-sized state has a big county or 2 (Cook in IL, Philadelphia in PA, etc) I didn’t know King was close to 1/3 of the electorate in Washington (I know its based on 2008 only but still it surprised me).

  2. Of all the counties listed here, this one seems to me to have the oddest behavior. In presidential years it performs a few points better for Republicans than they do statewide, but Obama actually did slightly better there than his statewide margin. But in 2006 both Brown and Strickland lost this county even as both were winning in a landslide.

    This county seems to be a prime example of Crisitunity’s “naive extrapolation”, anyone have any idea why the midterm falloff seems to be so huge for Dems here? I’m guessing Strickland loses big here again even if he does win reelection. (fingers crossed!)

  4. ….that Berkeley County had become the second most populous county in West Virginia.  It’s come a long way since the 80s.

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