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SSP's Competitive House Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart

by: DavidNYC

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 8:15 AM EDT


Barring any unexpected last-minute developments, below you will find our final house race ratings changes and a complete chart of all of our ratings. To see how much things have changed since we issued our first ratings of the cycle in March of 2009, please click here.

Final House Race Ratings Changes:

  • AR-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • AZ-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • ID-01: Lean D to Tossup
  • IN-02: Lean D to Tossup
  • KS-03: Lean R to Likely R
  • LA-03: Likely R to Safe R
  • MA-05: Safe D to Likely D
  • MO-03: Likely D to Lean D
  • MO-04: Lean D to Tossup
  • NC-02: Likely D to Lean D
  • NJ-03: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-09: Safe D to Likely D
  • NY-29: Likely R to Safe R
  • OH-06: Lean D to Tossup
  • OH-10: Safe D to Likely D
  • OH-12: Likely R to Safe R
  • OH-13: Lean D to Likely D
  • RI-01: Likely D to Lean D
  • TN-05: Safe D to Likely D
  • TN-06: Likely R to Safe R
  • TN-08: Lean R to Likely R
  • TX-25: Safe D to Likely D
  • VA-09: Lean D to Tossup

Final House Race Ratings Chart:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
AR-04 (Ross)
CA-18 (Cardoza)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-08 (Bean)
MA-04 (Frank)
MA-05 (Tsongas)
MA-06 (Tierney)
ME-02 (Michaud)
MI-15 (Dingell)
MS-02 (Thompson)
NJ-06 (Pallone)
NM-03 (Lujan)
NY-04 (McCarthy)
NY-09 (Weiner)
NY-25 (Maffei)
OH-10 (Kucinich)
OH-13 (Sutton)
OR-01 (Wu)
OR-04 (DeFazio)
PA-17 (Holden)
TN-05 (Cooper)
TX-25 (Doggett)
UT-02 (Matheson)
WA-06 (Dicks)
WA-09 (Smith)
WV-03 (Rahall)
CA-47 (Sanchez)
CO-07 (Perlmutter)
CT-04 (Himes)
CT-05 (Murphy)
DE-AL (OPEN)
IA-01 (Braley)
IA-02 (Loebsack)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
KY-06 (Chandler)
LA-02 (Cao)
ME-01 (Pingree)
MI-09 (Peters)
MN-01 (Walz)
MN-08 (Oberstar)
MO-03 (Carnahan)
NC-02 (Etheridge)
NC-07 (McIntyre)
NC-11 (Shuler)
NJ-12 (Holt)
NY-01 (Bishop)
NY-13 (McMahon)
NY-22 (Hinchey)
PA-04 (Altmire)
PA-12 (Critz)
RI-01 (OPEN)
TX-27 (Ortiz)
WI-03 (Kind)
AL-02 (Bright)
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
AZ-07 (Grijalva)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
CA-11 (McNerney)
CA-20 (Costa)
CO-03 (Salazar)
FL-22 (Klein)
FL-25 (OPEN)
GA-02 (Bishop)
HI-01 (Djou)
IA-03 (Boswell)
ID-01 (Minnick)
IL-10 (OPEN)
IL-14 (Foster)
IL-17 (Hare)
IN-02 (Donnelly)
IN-09 (Hill)
MA-10 (OPEN)
MD-01 (Kratovil)
MI-07 (Schauer)
MO-04 (Skelton)
MS-01 (Childers)
MS-04 (Taylor)
NC-08 (Kissell)
ND-AL (Pomeroy)
NH-02 (OPEN)
NJ-03 (Adler)
NM-01 (Heinrich)
NM-02 (Teague)
NV-03 (Titus)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-20 (Murphy)
NY-23 (Owens)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
OH-06 (Wilson)
OH-16 (Boccieri)
OH-18 (Space)
OR-05 (Schrader)
PA-07 (OPEN)
PA-08 (Murphy)
PA-10 (Carney)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
SC-05 (Spratt)
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)
TN-04 (Davis)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
VA-02 (Nye)
VA-05 (Perriello)
VA-09 (Boucher)
VA-11 (Connolly)
WA-02 (Larsen)
WI-08 (Kagen)
WV-01 (OPEN)
AR-01 (OPEN)
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
AZ-03 (OPEN)
CA-03 (Lungren)
CO-04 (Markey)
FL-02 (Boyd)
FL-08 (Grayson)
FL-12 (OPEN)
FL-24 (Kosmas)
GA-08 (Marshall)
IL-11 (Halvorson)
MI-01 (OPEN)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
OH-01 (Driehaus)
OH-15 (Kilroy)
PA-03 (Dahlkemper)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
PA-15 (Dent)
TX-17 (Edwards)
WA-03 (OPEN)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WI-07 (OPEN)
AL-05 (OPEN)
AR-02 (OPEN)
CA-44 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Bono Mack)
IN-08 (OPEN)
KS-03 (OPEN)
KS-04 (OPEN)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NE-02 (Terry)
SC-02 (Wilson)
TN-08 (OPEN)
26 D, 0 R 25 D, 2 R 51 D, 3 R 16 D, 6 R 4 D, 7 R

Safe R:

     LA-03 (OPEN)
     NY-29 (OPEN)
     TN-06 (OPEN)

DavidNYC :: SSP's Competitive House Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart
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AR-01, MI-01, and WA-03
are tossups.  Both parties are treating them as such, spending magnificent gobs of money going after these open seats.  Intuitively, they seem like they should be Lean R given the environment, but they aren't.  WA-03 and MI-01 have even polled within the MoE in recent public polls.

AZ-01 and WI-07 are borderline.  Both parties have been spending in those districts, but it has not been as overwhelming as in the three open seats listed above.

In GA-08, I suspect Scott does have the edge but don't know for sure because one side or the other is full of crap w/r/t internal polling.

I even wonder about TX-17, given the DCCC's $500K outburst in the final week.  But the totality of info agrees with your call there.

Dems have picked up the fight in FL-02 a little as well, but again the totality of info agrees with your call.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Weiner?
What are you basing his rating on?  Did I miss something here?

There was a poll from his opponent
showing it close, I think within 6.  It stands out in my memory because the numbers, which went out at least one decimal point, added up to a perfect 100%.  Very decisive folks in that part of Brooklyn.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the answer...
Even the Daily News is not taking that one seriously (and they're not exactly a liberal rag).  I'd say we're all getting way too jumpy, but between hearing an attack ad by Pallone, an ad for Louise friggin' Slaughter during a Bills game and a massive sign brigade of Bill Pascrell's opponent (not to mention an article about how the dems are being stingy with press), even I'm getting a little fatalistic.  However, the PA-12 result and polling discrepancies with cell phones still leads me to believe that this may be one of those moments where polling hasn't caught up to reality (and that gallup poll is dubious to put it in kind words).

Hopefully tomorrow, somewhere, there will be the headline Dewey Beats Truman (or Truman Beats Dewey more appropriately).


[ Parent ]
Think of it this way:
why wouldn't then run ads? It's just the thing to do, unless you basically have no opponent at all. I've seen plenty of ads for Chuck Schumer and there's no question he's going to win by a considerable margin.

Or, to put it another way, if Louise Slaughter is in danger, we never had a chance to begin with.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Exactly
If you're an incumbent with a big cash edge, why not run tv ads? Run a nice positive spot or two, don't even mention your opponent, but get you name and face out there!

[ Parent ]
Ha
This is true.  And it was a nice ad.  And I love Louise (she was my rep for years).  But there was a part of me that felt, why not loan it to say Maffei or Arcuri.  However, if it gets people out who then vote for Eric Schneiderman, that's awesome.

But I was mostly just kvetching.  

I have a friend who had to rush to his parents due to a family tragedy and he was saddened about not being able to vote, but his Rep is Steve Rothman and I gave basically the same argument (while jokingly prodding him to "move home" and vote for Space).


[ Parent ]
By the way...
Anyone feeling gloomy about this election, I recommend this (already rec'd) diary on Kos if you haven't read it:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

It helped talk me down off my brief stay on the election day mental ledge.


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't go as far
as the person who wrote that diary goes. There will be big losses, but how big is the question. As I've said before, for a few reasons, I can't see them picking up something like 80 seats. And while losing 30 seats sucks, in the grand scheme of things, that's pretty incredible. Will it be that much? Probably not. My gut tells me that if we keep the House, it'll be by no more than five seats.

Will the polls be wrong? I hope so, although if they are they won't be as drastically wrong as diarist at Daily Kos thinks. My general read on things is that there's enough of a buffer so that we can still sustain the losses of a small difference in the generic ballot. A point or two in our direction could make all of the difference in the world when it comes to keeping the House, so if the electoral compositions various pollsters have expressed aren't entirely accurate, because they are missing voters for a couple of reasons, it'll probably be a better night for us than some are predicting. There's also the ground game of the Democrats working in our favor.

A few weeks ago, Speaker Pelosi said that she'd rather be in our position than in the Republican's position. Maybe something happened that would have changed her mind, but I can't think of anything. Her statement leads me to believe that while they realize the precarious position they are in, they are doing everything that can be done at the base level to bring our voters to the polls, ignoring the hype in the background.

I think that is true. In the end, it might not be enough to make a difference, but as I said in regards to Harry Reid's operation, which is supposedly firing on all cylinders, the only thing we can ask of them at this point is to do that. If they fail, it might just be because there weren't enough voters to begin with.

But if it makes you feel any better, I have this nagging feeling that while things won't exactly be good, they will be better than some are predicting.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Wondering the same about Lloyd Doggett


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I don't know
if anyone has posted this yet, but I found Ray Fair's prediction of the Democratic share of the congressional vote. I won't describe his equation here, but as you can see from clicking on the link below, his prediction is that the Democrats take 49.22 percent of the congressional vote. (In contrast, his prediction for the House vote in 2008 was 55.8 percent, and the actual percentage was 54.8 percent.) He doesn't make any predictions about the number of seats that will fall, but assuming that there isn't any serious third party effect and that Republicans take about 51 of the congressional vote, that puts the fate of the House into tossup status according to the link from CBS. Of course, he off by a point in 2008, so perhaps he will be off again.

http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu...

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


About right here...
I wouldn't call PA-06 or PA-15 "lean", and I think CT-04 and CT-05 are probably tossups, and I agree MI-01 should be considered a tossup, but these are minor quibbles.

Thanks for taking the time, folks. You've made this whole ordeal a lot more bearable.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have a ballot to cast.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


Maybe a bit off topic
but if, as I've heard, SSP goes down today, where else do we head? (Will there be a post with "other election-night links"?) I needs my fix!

├╝berliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

Off the top of my head:
CNN, NYTimes, and Politico should all have maps. Hopefully we can have AP links in order to keep track of downballot races too.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
For downballot races
the NYT actually has results for downballot statewide offices (AG, SOS, etc).

Here's Illinois, for example: http://elections.nytimes.com/2...

20, GOP, NH-02


[ Parent ]
Well
We'll also be on Twitter all night!

[ Parent ]
Although
I'll be expecting the Fail Whale to be making a lot of appearances tonight, given the traffic there too.

[ Parent ]
I'll help with that...
by not being here during the evening, as I'll be at an election watch party here in Los Angeles, where hopefully Sen. Barbara Boxer will make an appearance.

[ Parent ]
Also, in these ratings changes
am I correct when I see that all the moves are toward the R side except for the one with the Republican challenger who dressed up like a Nazi (sorry, SS) soldier? 'Tis a rough cycle indeed.

├╝berliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

Anyone know how many Dem seats
are considered safe and not on this list?

My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows 255 current Dem seats minus 122 listed here = 133 safe Dem seats.

Is that right?


Toss-ups
What were considered to be the consensus toss-up House races in 2008? I know the conventional wisdom is that, in wave elections, toss-ups tend to break pretty consistently, but I would love to see an enumerated list and evaluate the results as a basis of comparison -- since, very clearly, this is where the majority is going to come from.  Is there a way of linking to SSP's '08 race ratings?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

It certainly wasn't that simple
For example, Boyda and Cazayoux were probably not even in the toss-up pile and likely lean D at least.  I remember in all the euphoria, seeing quite a few non-pick-ups I was surprised and disappointed in.  

[ Parent ]
It's amazing how crabby people were that night
I'm sure those same people wouldn't be nearly as bummed with a 20+ seat House gain today.

[ Parent ]
Ha, true
For the record, I was certainly not crabby that night.  It was more a feeling of "awr, well, that's too bad" and then back to the celebration.  But it does go to show that conventional wisdom is not always perfectly wise.

[ Parent ]
I am guessing
 This is the place to put this link:

This is where the election results will report on NYT:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Here is the link
 For election results on CNN.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Whoops!
 Here is the link

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Ugh
21 movements toward the GOP, 2 toward the Dems. Ugh. This all just feels so wrong going into election day - like the motherfarking bottom fell out this last week.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

Is there a place (maybe here)...
Is there a thread or someplace where we could mention the KEY lower ballot races and see how they are breaking?  That's one thing that SSPers seem to do well.  For example, the State Senate/House are not up in NJ, but there's a Special Senate in a Swing District (NJ-14) because Sen. Bill Baroni (R-only one to vote for Marriage equality) got a Port Authority position.  Assemblywoman Greenstein (D) is taking Sen. Tom Goodwin (R), who lost to her in '07, but was picked to replace Baroni interimly. If you really want to see if Chris Christie has some strength, this is a race to watch.  It's a lot of state employees who wouldn't normally support Christie's agenda, and Greenstein is pretty popular.  But Goodwin is from Hamilton (large population of the district) and the quasi-incumbent (for a few months).  

Also, a new pet peeve.  When they say a race is "Too close to call" instead of "Too early to call".


there will be multiple open threads for election results
And while they'll mainly be filled with top of the ticket info, people will be happy to read some state legislative results.  Just try to throw in some partisan break downs for each chamber so we get some context.

[ Parent ]
Sign of desperation for Rossi
ex-Mariners star Jay Buhner robocalls for Dino Rossi (R) in Washington and the NFL caucus.

Really, a lifetime .250 hitter is the best you can do?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Speaking of dreadful atheletes-turned-politicians
Isn't Chris Dudley considered one of the all-time worst NBA players? I know he set a "worst" record for something.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
He was a famously poor free throw shooter.
He was a good defensive player though, and a starter for many seasons in the NBA.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Bone is a popular ex-Mariner
excellent home run hitter -- and has more of a special place in Mariner fan hearts, as when he was acquired from the Yahnkees, it was considered to be something of a steal.

the only other ex-Mariner who might be a bigger potential political name is Jamie Moyer. (Junior lives in FL, Ichiro remains a citizen of Japan, and King Felix is still focused on being an ace.)


[ Parent ]
Thanks to everyone
This seems like the appropriate place to not only thank our moderators for doing all the hard work, but the commentators as well. As an addicted member of SSP and an occasional poster, I have really appreciated all the smart commentary on this site. Off the top of my head, DCCyclone, Conspiracy, spiderdem, StephenCLE, andryoo, GOPvoter, MassGOP, Roscoe, Zonorph, and so many others too numerous to mention (seriously, I don't know how many times I've run across a comment from someone I've never heard of before, and been blown away). Also the state specific commentary from, among others, desmoinesdem (Iowa), hoosierdem (Indiana), Andrew (Minnesota) and atleft (Nevada) has been great.

Also, to anyone who has posted a diary - thank you as well. I've done a couple - they're hard work!

I have to go to a party tonight where I probably won't have internet access, so I won't be able to click obsessively on SSP until later in the evening. I know I'll be chomping at the bit to get back home!  


My guide for tonight..
Thank you all, David and other SSP folk.

Thought I might as well share: This is my hour-to-hour, congressional district-by-district guide to help assess the election results for the House tonight with.

https://spreadsheets.google.co...

For each race it's got the name of the Dem (and sometimes the Rep), what Nate Silver expects the outcome and margin of the race to be, whether First Read called it a "key race", how the National Journal ranked the race in their overview of seats most likely to flip, and how Larry Sabato, SSP and Campaign Diaries (Taniel) assess the race. Also added in a handful of relevant comments from a Reuters article and from an earlier thread here yesterday or the day before.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU



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