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Predictions: 56, 8, 7.5

by: Paleo

Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 10:34 AM EDT


HOUSE

D LOSSES 60

TN 6
LA 3
NY 29
AR 2
MS 1
OH 1
TX 17
KS 3
FL 24
OH 15
FL 2
IN 8
TN 8
IL 11
CO 4
PA 3
FL 8
OH 16
VA 2
MD 1
MI 1
VA 5
WI 8
AR 1
WI 7
ND
NH 1
NM 2
SC 5
GA 8
IL 14
AZ 5
AL 2
AZ 1
WA 3
PA 7
PA 8
IN 9
NY 23
SD
CA 11
CO 3
NJ 3
TN 4
MS 4
NY 20
PA 10
WV 1
NC 7
NH 2
NV 3
NY 19
IL 17
NC 8
FL 22
OH 18
NC 2
CT 4
NM 1
CT 5

D WINS 4

LA 2
DE
IL 10
HI 1

SENATE

D LOSSES 8

NEVADA
ILLINOIS
PENNSYLVANIA
COLORADO
WISCONSIN
INDIANA
ARKANSAS
NORTH DAKOTA

GOVERNORS

D LOSSES 12

Wyoming
Oklahoma
Kansas
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Tennessee
Illinois
Maine

D GAINS 4

Hawaii
California
Minnesota
Vermont

1/2 R loss -- I
Rhode Island

Net loss of 7.5.
Paleo :: Predictions: 56, 8, 7.5
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Predictions: 56, 8, 7.5 | 16 comments
AL-02?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
It's there

[ Parent ]
Why though?
Are Bright polls up by mid single digits not good enough?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Bad environment
particularly in the south, will cost people like Taylor, Bright, Davis, McIntyre and maybe Etheridge.
[ Parent ]
Pretty good
I think you're right on the money with the Senate and Governorships. Looks like we'll pickup VT instead of CT. I differ with you on the House though, I see 70 losses and 4 pickups. I hope we're both wrong and the damage won't be nearly this bad.  
I noticed...
...That the more unsure House races are down at the bottom of the list. Almost everything from IL-14 to the end of the list, I'm not sure about.
Yeah
So many could go either way.  But with the generic the way it is, they'll probably go R.
[ Parent ]
The national generic, right?
And are we 100% sure the national generic is important? Cause I'm not.
[ Parent ]
An average of all of them
is hard to argue with, historically.  And the average is looking to be 9%.
[ Parent ]
Right.
I was under the impression that a national generic doesn't really predict the number of seats gained or lost, but rather the popular vote (how many votes are cast nationally for a Republican vs. a Democrat). The complexities of that are easy to imagine. Perhaps the Republicans' popular vote advantage will be in just one area of the nation instead of all over.

It seems easy to debunk the national generic's influence.

[ Parent ]
Regional differences
Yes, that's true.  But Gallup was relatively uniform.  

And it depends where you're starting point is.  That lead will turn over a lot more seats for a party under 200 seats than one over 250.

[ Parent ]
Average swing from 2008
since October 20th in the House Polling is 8%.  That would imply a generic ballot of GOP +8.

[ Parent ]
From my dkos diary
Today:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Photobucket

The undecided in the close seats averages around 14%.  My guess is that this breaks against the dems, and the prediction that we wind up with is the GOP +2 number: 75.

But there is increadible volatility in the House numbers, and I could see the Dems actually keeping the House.

In addition to your 8, I believe the Dems will lose either California or Washington, which will give them 9. It will be a very late night.

We will the Florida Gov's race.

Good diary.
I'm about where you are, 54,8,12 but I think we squeak out a win in Florida, though it could go either way it's a pure tossup. I would count a Chafee win as a full loss for the GOP though. He's more liberal than the dem or Republican in the race. Sadly your diary looks like a likely scenario.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Florida
My last push in the governor's races.  I agree she could win.  But it's Florida.  And Democrats tend not to win close races in Florida.
[ Parent ]
46-51
8 and 7. 6 if you count Chafee as a Dem.
Predictions: 56, 8, 7.5 | 16 comments

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