Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP's Competitive Gubernatorial Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart

by: DavidNYC

Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 12:03 PM EDT


Barring any unexpected last-minute developments, below you will find our final gubernatorial race ratings changes and a complete chart of all of our ratings. To see how much things have changed since we issued our first ratings of the cycle in April of 2009, please click here.

Final Gubernatorial Race Ratings Changes:

  • CT-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • GA-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • ID-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • MA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
  • ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Gov: Likely D to Safe D
  • RI-Gov: Tossup to Lean Independent
  • TN-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • UT-Gov: Likely R to Safe R

Final Gubernatorial Race Ratings Chart:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
CA (Open)
CO (Open)
HI (Open)
MA (Patrick)
MD (O'Malley)
NH (Lynch)		 CT (Open)
FL (Open)
IL (Quinn)
MN (Open)
OH (Strickland)
OR (Open)
VT (Open)		 AZ (Brewer)
GA (Open)
IA (Culver)
ME (Open)
NM (Open)
PA (Open)
SC (Open)
TX (Perry)
WI (Open)		 AL (Open)
MI (Open)
NV (Open)
OK (Open)
SD (Open)

Lean Independent:

     RI (Open)

Safe R:

     KS (Open)
     TN (Open)
     WY (Open)
DavidNYC :: SSP's Competitive Gubernatorial Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

SSP's Competitive Gubernatorial Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart | 48 comments
Interesting
Interesting to see how much closer you came with predicting the Gov races nearly two years out as opposed to the Senate races.  Other than a few surprises that no one could have foreseen, such at in Iowa, most of what you predicted has come true.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
Chuck Todd said Plouffe focused on three races...
Colorado Senate, Florida Governor and Ohio Governor.  

I'd guess this is looking forward to the 2012 re-election campaign and Sink and Strickland would be much better than Scott and Kasich and Fla and Ohio will be two very key states.  

kind of proves the point that OFA
is only about re-electing Obama.  CO is certainly a place where getting Obama turn-out can help but we won FL and OH by margins that indicate that they were won because of the national tide and not because of anything Obama was selling.  Granted, I will give OFA some credit as if this cycle weren't such a shit storm, they'd be focusing on IN-Sen and NC-Sen instead of OH-Gov and FL-Gov me thinks.  Oh how NC-Sen makes me want to cry, I think it would have been such an easy win if the money was there.  Maybe we'll be in for a surprise!  (Why would I even say that, ::sigh::)
[ Parent ]
No surprise according to the latest PPP poll of NC.
Burr is up by double digits. FWIW, Jensen says in the memo he doesn't think any Dem could have won in this environment against Burr this year.

But I agree, if Cooper had gotten in the race, it would have certainly been more interesting.  

[ Parent ]
That isn't true at all. OFA contacted over 10mm
people in the last week all over the country. OFA has been working extensively on GOTV for house races.

Plouffe is working closely on those races not OFA. Don't confuse the two.

[ Parent ]
What is Plouffe doing then?
But no, you're right as I thought Plouffe was head of OFA.  Wiki says it some random guy Ive never heard of.
[ Parent ]
Just found another horse-race blog
which seems to have similar content as we do here.  Well, in the posts at least.  Has got barely any comments.

http://www.electionadvantage.net/

The one thing I do warn you about, though, is this:

"Dedicated to a non-partisan analysis of Senate, House, and Governor races."

No, it's actually a right-wing site.  For example, look at the report on AK-Sen:

"But the story about the journalists attempting to concoct negative stories about him may swing the tide back his way."

Also, FWIW, it shows a huge fuckton of polls.  Including a 48-45 Quinnipiac CT-Gov poll showing Foley ahead.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Is that a metric fuckton? Or is it just standard?
;-)

I think this guy was the right's answer to Nate Silver if I'm not mistaken.

[ Parent ]
is this the fruition of the secret
can you email me between David and GOPVOTER and GOPVOTER and MassGOP?  Would be glad to see they took my blogspot suggestion  :)
[ Parent ]
Haha
Nope, I've got nothing to do with this site!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
If there is such an outgrowth
I'd be pleased to join as a parallel "D guest".
[ Parent ]
Eh, I barely have the time to comment on this place anymore!
Three open threads a weekend, jeez!
[ Parent ]
SC-Gov
According to articles like this one, among major newspaper endorsements, Vincent Sheheen outnumbers Nikki Haley Seven to Two.  Even my local Greenville News, with its right wing reputation, endorsed Sheheen.  

Is that unusual, for a governor candidate to get a majority of major newspaper endorsements and still lose?

Hello fellow Greenvillian !!
I was glad to see that Sheheen won the endorsement battle as well.

I don't remember about 2006, but when Sanford won his first term in 2002, he had endorsements from all but one major newspaper here. He defeated incumbent Democrat Hodges then.

Newspaper endorsements don't carry the weight that they use to, but they are still sought after.  I don't remember anyone getting most of the endorsements, yet losing the Governor's race. It might have occurred in 1998, when Hodege beat GOPer David Beasley.

I have been surprised at the number of Sheheen yard signs vs. Haley in this very dominant GOP county.            

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I'm kind of wondering...
There is always at least one big surprise. Sometimes there are a few big surprises.

What will be this year's surprise? Because the inverted enthusiasm gaps in states like Texas, Alaska, and South Carolina are looking awfully interesting right now.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
If Shaheen scores
an upset and prevents Haley, who is supposed to be one of the Republican's rising stars, from being governor, he's going to find himself the subject of a lot of speculation. I know nothing about him, although I will look some stuff up once I am done typing this message, but if he's not that conservative, I wouldn't surprised to see his named tossed around for 2016 or even replacing Biden in 2012.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I wonder if the scandal was a good mask for Haley
She represents policies which are very unpopular with many South Carolina residents of both parties. How many voted for her because they were angry over the tacky stuff thrown at her about affairs? Or because the other candidates were lackluster or were disliked (Andre Bauer)?

Now months have passed and she is probably still just offering the same Sanford policies, and Republican women in the media have become, since her primary win, a laughingstock (O'Donnell) and a nightmare (Angle), both reinforcing bad stereotypes about women in politics.

I think she will win but I'm not surprised this is close.  

[ Parent ]
not unusual at all
I dont have examples but nor a scientific study to quote, but newspaper endorsements dont mean anything for the most part.
[ Parent ]
One fascinating thing about that 2009 posting
I recognize virtually none of the commentators on that posting, besides CalifornianInTexas and armand. Some of those people don't seem to have posted for well over a year.  
Yeah, I saw that too
Marcus and mdouglas are names I recognized as well and are people who still post from time to time, but there were a lot of strange name there. Notanothersonofabush too. It looks like some just stopped posting, others have only ever made 5-10 comments and some of them happened to be on that thread, and a couple have been banned.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Englishlefty and Colbycakes are still around
Sicembears was a regular poster and not sure why she/he left.  And then two of the commenters there were banned, one for constantly being off-topic and engaging in policy debate (tis a shame because he was a great commenter otherwise), the other banning was Kyle who I believe was our first token Republican.  There are a few other people who seemed to have only posted a few times and a few others still around in that thread.

Now I just wish that thread had IHATEBUSH, he's the all-time most memorable commenter and Id love to have gotten a "treat" from him to read.  Maybe I'll go SSP archive diving.  "Make an 8/0 map in MN by combining Minneapolis with Wright County!"  Bless his heart.

[ Parent ]
Kansas Governor Sam Brownback
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
Final SUSA CA, Brown up 11
Brown 49, Whitman 38

(FWIW, Boxer 46, Fiorina 38)

WA-07, 34 years old

Amazing what adding cell phones into their sample did
Republicans getting blown out in races that looked really close in Oregon and California.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Dems just gotta hope...
The cellphone issue is legit.  Because that would have a dramatic effect across the board.  3% saved 3-4 Senate seats and makes the house a toss-up.  
[ Parent ]
Well, that only applies to PPP and Ras
but granted, those are two of the most prolific pollsters.

I don't like to hang my hat on stuff like this, but I do have my suspicions.

An anecdote: my wife and I are a cellphone only household, both Murray voters. My wife's parents, landline: both Rossi voters. FWIW

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
This is pure speculation,
but think of how many races there are where we are technically trailing but by a small enough margin so that it's really like a tossup. There's, what, at least 40 of those, right? Now think of how many of them are in states where there's bound to be some positive effects from coattails and/or superior ground games. And then think of how just one or two percentage points that is being masked by the cell phone bias, should it exist, could make the difference in a lot of races.

Assuming the polling isn't nearly as bad as some fear (i.e. some sort of effect that is masking the incoming 80-seat pickup), I almost think we have to keep the House if we can score the four very likely to certain pickups and maybe score one or two more. After all, we could still lose 40 seats but pick up just four and still hold a slim majority. There's a lot of room for loss here.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
well I dont count on coattails
Like in NY, when the top three candidates are getting over 60%, I really feel like people would view that as a bloc and down-ballot as the place to be creative.  And since most Dem statewide candidates seem on mark to lose, coattails ain't gonna do it.

Cell phone only voters and their ability to affect polls is only really in four states, WA, OR, CA, and MN.  And the Dems appear to be winning all of the races in each of those states so dont count on that.  You can also certainly count some House districts along with these states (IL-10 sounds like a good example of one.)

And I also think most undecideds will break towards the GOP, but that's just me.  It wont in some race like MN-8 where the two polls Ive seen have shown the two candidates to be neck-and-neck.  Well they're neck-and-neck because all of the undecideds are people who generally vote DFL and will probably break that way to give Oberstar a 19th term when it actually comes time to vote.

[ Parent ]
I assume you
are talking about the races for comptroller and other stuff like that, as opposed to the Senate races and the governor's race. The Attorney General races matter, but the others are usually back burner races, so I'm not really sure that's the best example to use. I don't think most people place nearly as much emphasis on those races as they do on the Senate races and races for governor. And really, why be creative in your congressional district? If it's competitive, chances are you know who is who.

In the case of New York specifically, there will be three blowouts at the top of the ticket. The vote won't be distributed evenly across the state, but if the candidates are ahead by 15 to almost 30 points in all of these races, why wouldn't that have some effect of helping down ticket races, unless there's just a surge in ticket splitting?

As far as the cell phone issue, where did you hear that it only matters for those four states? What makes them so unique?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
In all fairness to the "downballot effect," anyone but Schneiderman would be beating Donovan
He's just a ridiculously flawed candidate, so it's very easy for Independents who are voting Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand to boast their independent bonafides by bolting for Donovan. I actually think most Democrats will vote down-the-line...Donovan will get the 15% that's necessary to win, but that's still not Pataki levels (more like D'Amato '92). That wouldn't be such an easy move if a moderate like Kathleen Rice or less controversial liberal like Richard Brodsky had won the nomination.

As for DiNapoli/Wilson, I think it's less that DiNapoli's flawed, but more that he's a Paterson appointee with strong ties to Sheldon Silver. In a way, he has some of the same flaws as Gillibrand, but Wilson's 10x a better candidate than Joe DioGuardi.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
two more days
That's how long we'll have to wait to find out.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Just posted this in the digest,
but it follows up on your point, so pardon the repost. :)

=====
Comparison of surveys in this SUSA poll conducted by cell phone vs. land line (i.e. how much higher the Dem margin is in cell phone vs. land line samples):

Senate: +14
Governor: +16
Lt. Gov: +4 (still a lot of undecideds here)

The difference in net approval in support of Prop 19 is, get this, 35 points!!!

[ Parent ]
CT-5 and foley
The Foley surge + the wave may be more than chris Murphy can handle. per national review and ctcapitolreport, Merriman river has caligiuri expanding his lead over Murphy to 52-44.

Foley will win the district by a huge margin, mcmahon may still win it, and Obama approval is low (43/54).

In with the wave, out with the wave?good news is that lieberman's seat is up in 2012.    

Mass gov I don't feel comfortable with.
I have a hard time believing Cahill is going to be in double digits on election day and that most of what he's polling won't move to Baker.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
Late October Surprise
Here in the Michigan gubernatorial race, Democrat Virg Bernero alleged that four Detroit pastors that Rick Snyder has endorsing him on his website actually didn't endorse him.  If that's the best Virg has got, he's even more toast than I thought he was. lol
MN-Gov toss-up? Come on already.
There hasn't been a poll showing Dayton behind in ages. We are definitely in silly season here.
Even the most recent PPP poll
 Shows Dayton leading although it is only three points. Does PPP use cellphones though?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
No, it's an automated pollster...
By law, you can only call cell phones with live operators.
[ Parent ]
Good
That means the PPP poll in Pennsylvania is probably showing what's correct but if they do not use cellphones in Washington, it could be understating Murray's support by a few points. Also, I do not believe their numbers that Rossi won early voters by 4 points. Throughout October, Murray has been leading Rossi in the polls, let alone being down by 4 points.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
With Minnesota having the nation's highest voter
turnout rate, I am not too worried about Dems sitting this election out. We haven't had a Dem governor in 20 years. I think we can win this one.  
[ Parent ]
If
there was no tossup, just lean, likely and safe I would put it at lean D but tossup is a very fair rating. I do think Dayton will win. He's got a steady lead but a steady 2-3 point lead in this environment can turn into and upset and tossup isn't the worst rating in the world. Especially when you consider how polling had Dayton up huge in the primary and he only won by a point. Like I said I am confident in a Dayton win but I doubt it is more than 5%.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The difference

is that Robo-polling has always given Dayton a 2-3 point lead, but traditional polling with live interviewers have given Dayton a much larger lead.  Additionally, the last PPP poll gave Dayton a significant lead in those that had already voted by absentee (MN does not have early voting).  

And again, the polling in the primary didn't miscount Dayton's total--it miscounted Kehiller's, and she had the DFL coordinated campaign on her side.  That campaign churned out voters for her, but now, that same coordinated campaign is working overtime for Dayton.

That said, I won't feel better until this is over.  Anybody else with pre-election anxiety?

[ Parent ]
I am very worried about tomorrow night.
I am resigning myself to 58 lost house seats, 9 Senate seats and all of the midwestern governorships except for MN. That way, anything other than that will be a happy surprise.

I also have a lot of beer. That should help.

[ Parent ]
The good guys don't always win.
How do you think the bad guys come to power in the first place? :P

No matter what happens, life goes on.  Heck, the way things are going, we'll have a Republican-controlled House and a bunch of new Repubilcan governors to stick blame to.

Not to mention that, no matter who wins in Alaska, our bench suddenly got one big name thicker.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Any other New Yorkers here get a robocall from Carl Paladino?
I just came back from dinner after work, to find a message that started like this:

"Hi. This is Carl Paladino. Are you ready to clean up New York?"

I deleted the message at that point, so I don't know what he followed up with, but he sure didn't select me from any list of likely voters for right-wing wackos. I'm essentially a social democrat, and I've never voted for anyone further right than Bloomberg.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

That's not very nice
poor Carl was just helping with hiring for a housekeeping service!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Stu Rothenberg moves WA-Sen to pure tossup...
Not so good... So, what does Charlie cook know that Rothie doesn't?
Whoops... wrong location... n/t

[ Parent ]
SSP's Competitive Gubernatorial Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart | 48 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox