| What you are about to witness is equal parts political prognostication and mental health breakdown. I am officially predicting that the Democrats will keep the House with a small but sustainable majority. Republicans pick up 37 seats and Democrats pick up 5, leaving a net of 32. Pick your own justification: the polls are wrong, the pundits are wrong, the scientific modelers are wrong. You name it. It's all true in my world. The real truth is that I cannot emotionally handle the Republicans winning a majority or even being within striking distance with the help of a few party switchers. So fuck it. The Democrats keep this mo fo. Below is the most plausible scenario I could muster for my fantasy to become reality. Pickups in bold:
AL-02 - Bright (D) 51, Roby (R) 49 - DCCC polling and investment very stable here.
AR-01 - Causey (D) 49, Crawford (R) 48 - DCCC has invested heavily. Lots of persuadable Dems here.
AR-02 - Griffin (R) 56, Elliott (D) 42 - Little Rock base keeps Elliott over 40%.
AZ-01 - Gosar (R) 50, Kirkpatrick (D) 46 - Have never seen tangible evidence that Kirkpatrick can win.
AZ-05 - Mitchell (D) 49, Schweikert (R) 48 - DCCC internal showed 7-point lead.
AZ-07 - Grijalva (D) 52, McClung (R) 45 - DCCC does not appear overly concerned here.
AZ-08 - Giffords (D) 52, Kelly (R) 45 - Or here.
CA-03 - Lungren (R) 51, Bera (D) 42 - Too tough a district for this cycle.
CA-11 - McNerney (D) 52, Harmer (R) 48 - Improved upticket performance may help.
CA-20 - Costa (D) 52, Vidak (R) 47 - Tough race for Costa in the Central Valley.
CA-47 - Sanchez (D) 51, Tran (R) 43 - Demographics here very tough for Tran.
CO-03 - Salazar (D) 48, Tipton (R) 48 - Salazar holds on by the narrowest of margins.
CO-04 - Gardner (R) 50, Markey (D) 45 - Markey hanging tough despite DCCC abandonment.
CO-07 - Perlmutter (D) 51, Frazier (R) 46 - DCCC taking this challenge very seriously.
CT-04 - Himes (D) 53, Debicella (R) 47 - Obama rally should help boost Himes.
CT-05 - Murphy (D) 53, Caliguiri (R) 46 - Late DCCC spending may boost Murphy.
DE-AL - Carney (D) 54, Urquhart (R) 43 - Smooth sailing for Carney.
FL-02 - Southerland (R) 51, Boyd (D) 46 - Lots of registered Dems here to come back to Boyd.
FL-08 - Webster (R) 51, Grayson (D) 44 - Hopefully Webster will be defeated in 2012.
FL-12 - Ross (R) 44, Edwards (D) 37, Wilkinson (TP) 18 - Ross gets by on big financial advantage.
FL-22 - Klein (D) 51, West (R) 49 - West seems too crazy for the district, but could very well win.
FL-24 - Adams (R) 54, Kosmas (D) 46 - Adams another one who could be ripe for the picking in 2012.
FL-25 - Garcia (D) 48, Rivera (R) 48 - Republicans really picked a live one here.
GA-02 - Bishop (D) 53, Keown (R) 47 - Demographics of this district very tough for Keown.
GA-08 - Scott (R) 53, Marshall (D) 47 - Why didn't either party committee really get into this one?
HI-01 - Hanabusa (D) 50, Djou (R) 49 - Djou will pull a lot of Case supporters, but not quite enough.
IA-01 - Braley (D) 53, Lange (R) 45 - Braley prevails in spite of huge outside spending.
IA-02 - Loebsack (D) 51, Miller-Meeks (R) 46 - Early voting may save Loebsack.
IA-03 - Boswell (D) 52, Zaun (R) 46 - Boswell did a great job of defining Zaun here.
ID-01 - Minnick (D) 52, Labrador (R) 44 - NRCC has ignored this one for a reason.
IL-10 - Seals (D) 53, Dold (R) 47 - If Cooks says Lean D this cycle, it's Lean D.
IL-11 - Kinzinger (R) 54, Halvorson (D) 46 - Halvorson simply drew a very, very tough candidate.
IL-14 - Foster (D) 49, Hultgren (R) 47 - Huge DCCC spending may bail out Foster.
IL-17 - Schilling (R) 50, Hare (D) 48 - My gut tells me that huge DCCC spending cut was not a good sign.
IN-02 - Donnelly (D) 51, Walorski (R) 46 - Donnelly has run a very strong campaign.
IN-08 - Bucshon (R) 55, Van Haaften (D) 43 - Not the year for Dems to win an R+8 open seat.
IN-09 - Young (R) 49, Hill (D) 49 - Sinking feeling that Young is emerging here.
KS-03 - Yoder (R) 55, Moore (D) 43 - Still have NEVER seen a poll, but does not seem competitive.
KY-03 - Yarmuth (D) 52, Lally (R) 44 - Neither party committee has taken an interest.
KY-06 - Chandler (D) 53, Barr (R) 47 - DCCC does not seem overly concerned here.
LA-02 - Richmond (D) 58, Cao (R) 41 - Demographics impossible for Cao.
LA-03 - Landry (R) 61, Sangisetty (D) 38 - This part of Louisiana going red fast.
MA-10 - Keating (D) 46, Perry (R) 43 - Crazy how Perry hangs around here with his baggage.
MD-01 - Harris (R) 51, Kratovil (D) 47 - Amazing campaign for Kratovil, but out with the tide.
MI-01 - Benishek (R) 47, McDowell (D) 46 - Sleeper race narrowly goes to the GOP.
MI-07 - Schauer (D) 50, Walberg (R) 46 - Schauer somehow seems to be out-performing 2008.
MI-09 - Peters (D) 51, Raczkowski (R) 46 - Late DCCC spending may boost Peters.
MN-01 - Walz (D) 50, Demmer (R) 44 - DCCC does not seem overly concerned here.
MN-08 - Oberstar (D) 54, Cravaack (R) 45 - Oberstar survives tough challenge.
MO-03 - Carnahan (D) 53, Martin (R) 43 - Well-funded but crazy challenger for Carnahan.
MO-04 - Skelton (D) 51, Hartzler (R) 47 - Skelton survives the political fight of his life.
MS-01 - Nunnellee (R) 50, Childers (D) 47 - Like Kratovil, out with the tide in spite of great campaign.
MS-04 - Taylor (D) 50, Palazzo (R) 48 - Hard to believe a guy who won by 50 last time is in this position.
NC-02 - Etheridge (D) 52, Ellmers (R) 45 - Neither party committee has taken an interest.
NC-07 - McIntyre (D) 53, Pantano (R) 46 - DCCC does not seem overly concerned.
NC-08 - Kissell (D) 51, Johnson (R) 47 - Nothing from the NRCC in this district.
NC-11 - Shuler (D) 53, Miller (R) 47 - DCCC does not seem overly concerned.
ND-AL - Berg (R) 51, Pomeroy (D) 49 - Pomeroy ran a great campaign, but too red a district.
NH-01 - Guinta (R) 52, Shea-Porter (D) 46 - No more rabbits to pull out of the hat for Shea-Porter.
NH-02 - Kuster (D) 49, Bass (R) 48 - Strong campaign from Kuster has won her big-time DCCC support.
NJ-03 - Adler (D) 49, Runyan (R) 48 - Difficult to imagine this district electing a dummy like Runyan.
NM-01 - Heinrich (D) 51, Barela (R) 48 - Heinrich turns back strong challenge in Dem district.
NM-02 - Pearce (R) 53, Teague (D) 47 - Teague fought a good fight, but looks to be out of it.
NV-03 - Heck (R) 49, Titus (D) 46 - NBC just moved this one to Lean R.
NY-01 - Bishop (D) 53, Altschuler (R) 46 - No spending from the DCCC here.
NY-13 - McMahon (D) 53, Grimm (R) 43 - No sign of life from Grimm.
NY-19 - Hall (D) 50, Hayworth (R) 49 - Strong top of ticket and late DCCC spending save Hall.
NY-20 - Murphy (D) 50, Gibson (R) 50 - Murphy pulls out extremely tough race.
NY-23 - Owens (D) 47, Doheny (R) 45 - Doug Hoffman saves the Dems again.
NY-24 - Arcuri (D) 52, Hanna (R) 48 - Arcuri somehow matches 2008 performance.
NY-25 - Maffei (D) 55, Buerkle (R) 45 - No recent signs of life from Buerkle.
NY-29 - Reed (R) 59, Zeller (D) 41 - No real contest from Dems here.
OH-01 - Chabot (R) 52, Driehaus (D) 44 - Chabot has been well ahead all along.
OH-06 - Wilson (D) 49, Johnson (R) 46 - Strickland running stronger may help.
OH-15 - Stivers (R) 51, Kilroy (D) 44 - DCCC never invested anything significant here.
OH-16 - Renacci (R) 50, Boccieri (D) 46 - Environment carries the day in free-spending race.
OH-18 - Gibbs (R) 49, Space (D) 48 - One of the biggest spending races in the country.
OR-05 - Schrader (D) 50, Bruun (R) 47 - Somewhere between Elway and Survey USA.
PA-03 - Kelly (R) 53, Dahlkemper (D) 46 - DCCC gave up on this weeks ago.
PA-04 - Altmire (D) 54, Rothfus (R) 45 - Altmire cruises in tough district.
PA-07 - Meehan (R) 50, Lentz (D) 50 - Huge DCCC spending makes it close, but Meehan holds on.
PA-08 - Fitzpatrick (R) 51, Murphy (D) 49 - Fitzpatrick one of the stronger Republican candidates.
PA-10 - Carney (D) 50, Marino (R) 49 - Amazing that a scoundrel like Marino is even in it.
PA-11 - Kanjorski (D) 50, Barletta (R) 50 - Survivor Kanjorski holds on once again.
PA-12 - Critz (D) 51, Burns (R) 49 - Burns may fare better with general electorate, but Critz holds on.
PA-15 - Dent (R) 54, Callahan (D) 44 - Callahan could take this seat in a better year.
RI-01 - Cicilline (D) 53, Loughlin (R) 44 - It's friggin' Rhode Island.
SC-05 - Mulvaney (R) 52, Spratt (D) 48 - Pundits don't seem bullish on Spratt at all.
SD-AL - Herseth-Sandlin (D) 49, Noem (R) 49 - Noem baggage just enough for SHS to squeak by.
TN-04 - DeJarlais (R) 49, Davis (D) 48 - Trajectory looks awful for Davis.
TN-06 - Black (R) 63, Carter (D) 35 - Carter will not have to worry about Pelosi vote.
TN-08 - Fincher (R) 54, Herron (D) 45 - Wonder if Tanner would have won this.
TX-17 - Flores (R) 51, Edwards (D) 46 - Late gaffes from Flores make it semi-competitive.
TX-23 - Rodriguez (D) 50, Canseco (R) 47 - Buzz seems to be that Rodriguez has the edge.
TX-27 - Ortiz (D) 53, Farenthold (R) 43 - Farenthold lacks gravitas somewhat in those ducky pajamas.
VA-02 - Rigell (R) 50, Nye (D) 45 - Environment carries the day.
VA-05 - Hurt (R) 49, Periello (D) 46 - Will be sad to see Periello go if that is what happens.
VA-09 - Boucher (D) 52, Griffin (R) 45 - Still no spending from the DCCC here.
VA-11 - Connolly (D) 51, Fimian (R) 47 - Huge spending in DC by the DCCC saves the day.
WA-02 - Larsen (D) 52, Koster (R) 47 - Larsen seems to have taken control somewhat.
WA-03 - Heck (D) 50, Herrera (R) 50 - Lazy Herrera deserves to lose as much as anyone.
WA-08 - Reichert (R) 54, DelBene (D) 45 - Slightly larger than typical win for Reichert.
WI-03 - Kind (D) 52, Kapanke (R) 46 - Party committees just starting to spend here.
WI-07 - Duffy (R) 50, Lassa (D) 47 - Duffy has been ahead all along here.
WI-08 - Ribble (R) 53, Kagen (D) 47 - Ribble has been ahead in every poll I have seen.
WV-01 - Oliviero (D) 51, McKinley (R) 49 - Manchin turnaround helps Oliviero. |
