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SSP Daily Digests: 10/29 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 29, 2010 at 8:03 AM EDT


Hope your index fingers are rested up, because you're going to have to do some intense clicking today.

  • CA-Gov

  • CO-Gov

  • CT-Sen

  • CT-Gov (PDF)

  • CT-01

  • CT-02

  • CT-03

  • DE-Sen

  • FL-25

  • GA-08

  • IN-02

  • KY-Sen (Braun)

  • KY-Sen (SUSA)

  • MD-Sen

  • ME-Gov (PDF)

  • MI-Gov

  • MI-07

  • MN-Gov

  • NC-02

  • ND-AL

  • NJ-12 (PDF)

  • NY-23 (PDF)

  • PA-Sen

  • PA-Gov

  • PA-10

  • PA-11

  • RI-Gov

  • RI-01

  • VA-05
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    SSP Daily Digests: 10/29 (Morning Edition) | 412 comments
    PPP feels more confident of a Manchin win than Murray..
    ...according to their latest tweet in response to someone else.  Not sure if they are in the field with either, yet or just conjecture based on his last poll that showed Washingtoners interested in a GOP congress.
    I remain confident in WA
    Dems tend to outperform the final polls, and a tie in SUSA and a one point deficit in Rassmussen gives Murray a lead in my book.
    [ Parent ]
    And speaking of the devil . . . Murray up 6
    Murray up 6 among likelys in Washington poll.  Interesting, only up 4 among registered.

    http://www.publicbroadcasting....

    [ Parent ]
    See Nate Silver on
    how SUSA and Rasmussen repeatedly beat their heads against the wall underestimating Dems in Washington.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

    Also, both party committees seem to have reduced their investments in Washington by about $400K this week, while ramping up in other places (although the week ain't over yet and more could theoretically be on the way).  Suggests to me that the race is less up for grabs than last week, not more so.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Also could be because most people have mailed in their vote already

    [ Parent ]
    According tho the director of this poll (from the audio),
    Tea Party activists are less likely to vote in Washington than those opposed to the Tea Party, which is the opposite of what is going on nationally.  

    So, another reason for the difference between the results from Rasmussen/Survey USA and other pollsters may be the likely voter screen they are using.

    [ Parent ]
    Both Washington Polls issued this fall and the earlier Elway poll
    show Murray with larger leads among likely voters than among registered voters. This matches up with the reported higher return rate of Democratic ballots. One factor could be the number of Democrat vs Democrat races for open legislative seats is driving up turnout in heavily Democratic districts. This may be an unintended consequence of our top two primary.
    [ Parent ]
    That is the first really good reason for a top-two primary
    ....that I have heard (if you're coming from a "I want Democrats to win" perspective). And while I still think there are a ton of things that could go wrong with it--I'm now a bit more positive about having it in effect in California.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
    [ Parent ]
    I know there's not much faith in Public polling in NV-Sen
    But when is the last time that 3 independent pollsters came up with EXACTLY the same result this late?:

    49-45 Ras
    49-45 CNN
    49-45 MD/LVRJ

    They might all be wrong, but it's still pretty impressive

    http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

    All three of these pollsters undercut
    Obama considerably in NV in 2008.  Rasmussen by 8, Mason-Dixon by 8, and CNN/Time by 5.  Doesn't mean it will happen again, but it gives hope, along with other tea leaves.

    http://www.nationalpolls.com/2...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    True, but
    turnout won't be what it was in '08.  I don't like the trent in the race, but it's still close.
    [ Parent ]
    the other thing is...
    If they know that they screwed up last time, doesn't that give them a heads-up for the next time, on how to look at their results?  It's not like they'd just stick their fingers in their ears and go "la la la la la la..."  maybe Razzz would, but I can't see CNN/Time and MD ignoring the previous numbers when crunching these...
    [ Parent ]
    Not necessarily
    I don't think they make major adjustments to their screening methodology.  They can always say to themselves that they got the winner right.
    [ Parent ]
    Mason-Dixon Poll
    I don't like what they stated in the poll that they overweighted GOPers to 42% because of Mason-Dixon's assumptions that GOP turnout will be higher. Anyway, I still don't get why Ralston continues to make comparisons of Registered for one party and their identification in polls as a member of a party. I know many people that are registered for one party and they don't identify with that party for a second, and they won't say their registration in a poll.  

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    Because it's crap...
    Why read into The R-J's garbage when we have more early voting to soon analyze?

    Again, Ralston looks at the private polling that you and Nate Silver don't see. He may be quite the curmudgeon at times, but he sure as hell knows what he's talking about when he talks about polling.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    I've come to the conclusion that
    if there's one candidate I'd like to lose, it's Sharron Angle, so I hope that Reid pulls this out, whether it's by ten votes or ten thousand votes. Reading your description of what's happening on the ground makes me think that he will, but I'm trying to prepare for the worst.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Not if they're all screwy...
    The first 2, we've talked about. Their demographics were WAY off.

    Apparently The R-J got the demographics right, but they're contradicting virtually everyone else in claiming Angle is stronger among GOPers than Reid is among Dems. That's just wrong. I'm simply NOT finding this on the ground, and no other pollsters releasing their internals show this.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    Here's something to give
    most of the readers of this blog a little heartburn: something like 40 percent of the voters in the Senate races in Nevada weren't voters in the last one, according to recent profile of Harry Reid in The New Yorker.

    Perhaps this doesn't mean nearly as much as I think, and perhaps pollsters have figured out a way to account for this as best as possible. But still, 40 percent! My guess is, if we see a result that is heavily against the polling information we have, that'll be the reason why.

    Here's the link to that article, by the way, which you should read just because it's interesting: http://www.newyorker.com/repor...

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    The New Yorker?
    40%?

    No.  Not even sure that's possible.

    [ Parent ]
    What exactly
    are you questioning about The New Yorker? It's a great magazine that isn't known for easily flubbing facts, so I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt.  

    The 40 percent number is based on the fact that a lot of the state's population is transient. If that's the case, and it's also been bottomed out by the recession that hit the gambling industry hard, I could see it being true.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Sure it is.
    Nevada grew so fast over the last decade. We gained a house seat in 2000, and we'll gain another one in 2010. I moved here in 2005 and a great number of my friends and coworkers moved here around the same time or later. This is the first time any of us are voting for Harry.  
    [ Parent ]
    lvrugger is right and in fact this exact same issue existed in 1998, which is why...
    ...Reid was so endangered against Ensign, because so many voters in 1998 had moved to the state after Reid's previous reelection in 1992 and had no history of voting for him.  Thus, those voters were up for grabs, and there were a LOT of them.

    The same issue would have existed in 2004 except that Reid didn't have a serious challenge.

    This time it's different still, where Reid is endangered not because of a strong opponent as in 1998, but because of his own unpopularity, which is offset by having a strongly disliked opponent.  So the new voters now are deciding who they dislike less, and whether they can vote for one of them at all.

    But the bottom line is this issue of so many new voters in the state isn't new, it's been a trend for 20 years.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Numbers don't make sense
    I've seen no projection or actual data that says that from 2004 to 2010 that NV grew even 20%, never mind 40%.  Most estimates I've seen say 15%.  

    NV also has a prettuy high gap between birth and death rates compared to the US as a whole, so some of the increase in population is children who are not of voting age.  

    According to the Nevada Sos, turnout was 77% in 2004.

    http://nvsos.gov/SOSelectionPa...  

    So do the math.  For 40% of voters in 2010, about 50% of people in NV in 2004 would have had to move out of NV and be replaced by new voters, or voter turnout will be over 100%.

    Even 20% new voters since Reid's last election would be silly.

    [ Parent ]
    You're confused about
    what the approximate 40 percent statistic means. It doesn't mean that the state has a voting pool that is 40 percent different than what it had the last time he ran, mostly because people come in to the state and leave the state so quickly. I'm sure there is some of this in every state, but there are characteristics that are unique to Nevada that make this a bigger issue than it is in other states.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Leave it to me to botch my own correction.
    Let's try that again:

    The approximate 40 percent statistic means that the state has a voting pool that is 40 percent different than what it had the last time he ran, mostly because people come in to the state and leave the state so quickly. It doesn't mean that the state has had an increase of 40 percent in population.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    That's right, but also a significant share of that 40% IS a population increase......
    The state's population exploded for a long time, for 20 years.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Some of it is, certainly,
    just not all of it. But regardless of what percentage is what, it's still the case, or so some say, that about 40 percent of the population wasn't there for the last time Reid ran. Maybe that number is a little less dramatic because fewer people have been leaving and even fewer moving in, but it still looks to be a much more unstable population than in most other states. Whether that makes a difference in the end, I am not sure.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Not confused
    It means that half of the voters who voted in 2004 have left the state or died if you assume no population increase.  

    The population increase from 2004-2010 is 15%, so if you assume all of those are registered/likely voters, then about 40% of the people who voted in 2004 left the state or died.

    There has been no population increase in 2008, 2009 or 2010.

    [ Parent ]
    Someone leaving followed by
    someone coming in means no population increase. The original article that I mentioned doesn't say what the cause of the changes were, just that there were changes to begin with.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    That's obvious
    My point is that given the root causes of population changes (birth rate, mortality rate, domestic migration and international migration) there is quite simply no way that from 2004 to 2010 that there could be a 40% different electorate without one of the reasons I gave.

    If the overall population increase is up 15%, then you can say fine that 15% are definitely new (we can assume that total population and registered voters will increase the same for fun since who really knows).

    But we know for a fact that migration, especially domestic has dropped like a rock and has been net negative in recent years, meaning more people are leaving than coming in, so there's just aren't enough actual humans to bring about the 40% change.  Like I said, I think 20% is about the cap.

    Of course I think its all a moot point for them to make.  The population change quite simply has brought about an electorate that went heavily for Obama, re-elected Goodman in Vegas, chosen Titus over Porter in NV-03, gave fewer votes to Ensign in 2006 than 2000 (despite the very real population increase in that time) and so on and so on.

    Even if I were to believe the 40%, it seems odd the one Dem that the newbies have turned on is Reid.  But I don't believe the 40% because its not even close.

    [ Parent ]
    DE
    Coons collapsing and O'Donnell surging?

    http://theconservativejournal....

    29/D/Male/NY-01

    DE
    I should say it doesn't fit with other polls, but it is kind of scary.  Is this a good pollster?


    29/D/Male/NY-01
    [ Parent ]
    The Conservative Journal?
    What do you think?

    A real poll came out yesterday having her down 21 points.  This race has been put to bed.

    [ Parent ]
    DSCC canceled its
    very light buys here in the second week of October.  NRSC has never spent a dime.  Time to put this one out of our minds.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    And delicious irony
    It could very well end up that the Republicans would have won the senate had Castle won the nomination.  If that happens, I think I'll have a cup of tea.
    [ Parent ]
    TCJ
    Nate says that he doesn't think that they do the polls at all

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    Tek
    I would suspect that you find bunny rabbits, hamsters, gerbils, and guineau pigs scary as well.  And I guess they kind of are in some ways.

    This pollster, which is literally "The Conservative Journal Research" had Coons up 8 two weeks ago, so this is a 2-point "surge."  As a bonus, they had Fiorina up on Boxer and McMahon within 3 of Blumenthal that week.

    http://theconservativejournal....

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Bunny rabbits
    Bunny rabbits can be dangerous, you know.

    Run away, run away!

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Donnie Darko
    for example.  Don't know if you've been here long enough to appreciate the legend that is Tekzilla.  Our resident Chicken Little months back, but a lovable one rather than an irritant.  Great to see the man back.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion!
    (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouFnQTq6gNQ)

    and right, Tekzilla is our resident pessimist. I think I'd like it if he were the one predicting 93 seats lost, but I don't think he's even THAT pessimistic.

    [ Parent ]
    scary enough for you?
    http://amultiverse.com/2010/10...

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    [ Parent ]
    You just made me spit on my keyboard from laughing so hard. Seriously. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    I would think not
    Considering it is a wordpress blog. However, some of their results, with the exception if this and CA-SEn (Fiorina +4) have been in line with other pollsters.  
    [ Parent ]
    Hold the phone: Monmouth/SUSA says 10

    The newest poll, shows O'Donnell with 41 percent and Coons with 51 percent of those polled. The poll of 1171 likely voters was conducted October 25 to 27 and has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

    This is the second poll to be released this week. Fairleigh Dickinson University released numbers yesterday showing Coons with a 21 point lead over O'Donnell.

    Monmouth also polled the U.S. House race, finding Democrat John Carney ahead of Republican Glen Urquhart by 7 percentage points. FDU's poll had Carney with a 17 point lead.

    http://blogs.delawareonline.co...

    Split the difference, and call it 15-16.  And 12 in the house race.

    [ Parent ]
    That's not
    "Hold the phone" -worthy.  Lol.
    [ Parent ]
    A bit of sarcasm there

    [ Parent ]
    i know (nt)

    [ Parent ]
    DE
    I was really hoping for a 20 point destruction here.

    29/D/Male/NY-01
    [ Parent ]
    Not me
    I want it to be as close as possible.  I'd love to have O'Donnell against Carper in 2012.

    The gift that keeps on giving....

    [ Parent ]
    Oh noes
    Man the lifeboats!

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    CT
    What has happened to Malloy?  I know he was never up that much to being with, but why in the world is he losing ground to a garbage candidate like Foley?

    29/D/Male/NY-01
    Patrick up by 7 in Suffolk poll
    NV-Sen - The mother of all tweets.
    Day 13 of early vote unlucky 4 GOP: Dems have turnout %age lead for 1st time Thursday in Clark County, now lead by 20,000 votes. Blog soon.

    I'll let our panel of Nevada experts take it from here.

    Come on, Harry!!!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    Was that Ralston?

    [ Parent ]
    Yup.


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Oh please NV...
    I just took my mom to Las Vegas a few weeks ago because she always wanted to go.  I prayed to Elvis and Frank Sinatra that Harry Ried would not lose to crazy while I was there.

    Those ads where horrible; I am sort of oblivious living in DC. Thank God.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    Good on you
    to pray at the alter of the King.  I attribute this good news entirely to your effort.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    My back-of-the-envelope math says...
    ...that based on the Clark County report that 24K people voted yesterday, and the fact that before Thursday polls opened Clark Dems had a 5K vote lead in total turnout, that yesterday had to be a 60-40 split in favor of Dems (roughly 14,500 to 9,500).

    Keep in mind the party-based numbers aren't up yet on the Clark County web site, so I assume Ralston gets data from elsewhere.

    I have no idea how the math goes for percentage-of-registration advantage for yesterday; I could do it, but I'd rather let Ralston do the work and just wait.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    One positive take by a blogger I came across
    [ Parent ]
    Well he's making unsupportable assumptions about who everyone votes for......
    The key questions are how much crossover advantage does Reid over Angle to offset Angle's advantage with indies.

    Those are the assumptions most people are believe are safe:  (1) Reid gets more crossvers; and (2) Angle wins indies.

    We don't know the size of the margins in those two things, and public polls are useless because the crosstabs on party ID are small subsamples with sky-high margins of error; and they vary widely across polls to boot.

    I've had the sense for some that Reid will win crossover GOPers in the low-to-mid-double digits, and Angle Dems will be in the mid-single digits.  And I've had the sense that Angle's edge with indies is low-to-mid-double digits.  Throw in a slight absolute Dem turnout advantage, and you have an impossible-to-predict wash.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    No need to wait...
    Here it is.

    Total Clark early voting percentages relative to registration:

    Democrats: 30.7 percent

    Republicans: 34.8 percent

    Total Clark with mail ballots added (Democrats now have a 2,200-ballot lead):

    Democrats: 34.9 percent

    Republicans: 39.6 percent

    Total urban early vote:

    Democrats: 127,294 (30.2 percent)

    Republicans: 112,252 (33.9 percent)

    Total urban early vote (including absentees in Clark):

    Democrats: 141291 (33.5 percent)

    Republicans: 123,988 (37.5 percent)

    For numbers geeks:

    CLARK:

    Thursday: Dems, 11,701 Rs, 8,297 rest, 4,151

    Early: Dems, 103,057; Rs, 84,808 rest, 36,313

    Mail: Dems, 13,997; Rs, 11,736 rest, 3,746

    Combined: Dems, 117,054 Rs, 96,544 rest, 40,059

    WASHOE:

    Ds: 24,237 (28.1 percent)

    Rs: 27,444 (31.5 percent)



    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    And one more tea leaf, from Ralston's blog......
    Here's Ralston's blog post this morning:

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

    And here's the most interesting part:

    Republicans have a 3,000-vote lead in Washoe County, but Democrats remain confident Sharron Angle is losing her base in northern Nevada - the margin either way in Washoe could be pivotal to this race.

    Whatever Democrats think has to come from a strong voter ID program that gives them hard data on who has voted, and/or from oversampling in their polling Washoe and maybe other parts of northern Nevada.  I have no idea which.  But if they're confident about something like that in a specific region, it must be based on data.

    But ultimately, as I commented below, I don't know anymore whether to believe these tea leaves or all the public polls.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Where is Yucca located in the state? North?

    [ Parent ]
    I just looked it up and no, it's in the South. So that's not it. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    If you're wondering about Yucca Mountain's
    ...electoral ramifications, it's an issue in pretty much of all of the state, from what I understand. Apparently, no one really wants a giant, radioactive waste dump that could render uninhabitable a giant chunk of the West by spilling during an accident en route, leaching into a climate-change-driven rising water table, becoming a terrorist target (the ultimate dirty bomb), gets caught in an earthquake or--and this is my favorite--explodes all over the West in a volcanic eruption. Can't imagine why no one wants that in their state.

    But Yucca Mountain is basically 45-60 minutes northwest of Vegas, and about 5-ish hours southeast of Reno. It's not too far off the main road you travel between the cities (US-95)--and near Area 51 actually. And come to think of it, was it ever as big of an issue in the Reno/Carson City metro as it was in Vegas? It was life and death there in Vegas for awhile. I assume northern Nevadans were opposed, too, if a bit less adamantly, but I now realize I have little evidence of this...Nevadans? Help?

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    OH House
    I know house polls are never terribly reliable, but whats with the lack of any polling on Ohio's competitive house races. I realize OH-1 and probably 15 are lost, but both sides seem to think they still have a shot in 16 and OH-6 seems like its slipped under the radar.

    I'd also rest easier with hard data showing Ganley down in the wake of his sex scandal.


    33, male, Dem, OH-13

    FWIW
    I have been doing a lot of phone banking for OFA lately and they have designated 5 firewall districts and OH-16 is one of the districts that we have been calling relentlessly. Most of the results have been pretty good in that district so I think that our chances there are reasonable.

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    What is OFA?
    I see you post it, is it somethign i should know?
    [ Parent ]
    Organizing for America
    Formerly Obama's campaign operation, now the DNC's
    [ Parent ]
    Firewall against what?
    OFA thinks it will be close and the firewall is to squeak out a majority?  
    [ Parent ]
    I laughed out loud at your subject line......
    You might not have meant it this way, but it came off as sarcastic......and damn funny.

    Yeah, those 4 seats will save us!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    It's not a riduculous plan
    In fact, it's smart. If you think that they are going to lose 50 seats but then flip four, that brings you down to 46. Saving two of the ones that are likely to flip in Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York brings you down to 38. We then keep the House. In a situation like that, you can lose a lot of seats in Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, and other places, but still come out ahead if you contain the loses in states like the ones I mentioned.

    It becomes harder if you give the Republicans a higher baseline, like 55 seats, but at the same time, the higher the baseline, the more likely it is that the seats that form the firewall are gone anyway.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    No offense intended, and I'm fine with the plan and agree every seat counts even if we lose the House......
    I just thought in the moment it looked funny and it made me laugh.

    I gotta laugh at our plight sometimes, or else I'll cry.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I didn't take any offense
    at all. You weren't even responding to me, how could I take any offense? :]

    Trust me, you have to laugh at our plight. The other choice is crying or drinking heavily.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I get the idea
    But why those states, as opposed to, say, Florida or Colorado? Or Washington? Even Michigan, maybe?

    Just for the sake of argument, Colorado, for example, has three seats (Markey, Perlmutter, Salazar) that could be saved, and by focusing efforts there, we get to guarantee a Gov. Hickenlooper and possibly push Sen. Bennet over the top. Washington's got several seats that are competitive (Herrera Vs. Heck + Reichert vs. DelBene) plus the Senate race where Patty Murray basically has to win if we're gonna hold the Senate. And Florida has the crucial governor's race plus a ton of congressional seats.

    Basically, shouldn't we be establishing our firewalls where they do the most good and are on fairly favorable territory for doing so? If that's the case, I can see NY & the Northeast easily--we're strong there and have good candidates for the most part (Libby Mitchell, you are the weakest link, goodbye). But with Illinois, Ohio and (maybe) Pennsylvania, you've got some weak upballot candidates with potentially negative coattails. FL-Sen is a clusterfuck, but Sink can definitely win. I'm not saying we should abandon the other states, just wondering why those got picked?

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    There was nothing
    in particular about those states except that they all had at least four seats which were in contention, as in being on everyone's list and where the parties and outside groups spent a lot of money. I think the case is strong for a firewall in New York or Pennsylvania than it is in Colorado, but only because they are bluer states than others where there are more than one seat in serious contention, but really, it doesn't matter. You could pick any district in any state to get past a certain number. Colorado and Washington both present us with opportunities, so you could easily make a guess, like you did. My guess is, they looked into what could be done with the resources they had available and decided to go where the effect would be greatest. Whether this is also influenced by internal polling isn't clear, but I wouldn't be surprised.

    I could go back and forth with this for a while, but suffice it to say that I really hope there's some detailed reporting about what went into the decision making on each side. It would be fascinating to read.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I know
    They are thinking that there are seats that are very close that they can make the difference to "save the majority". I don't see that as the case as I think losses of about 50-55 seats is going to happen but as chicken soup for the soul I'll continue to do what I can.

    Bracing myself for Tuesday.....

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Once again,
    it's not absurd to think they can squeak out a victory by saving a few seats here or there, as long as the overall loses aren't huge. That's one of the benefits of having such a big buffer in the House: we can lose a lot of seats but still come out ahead.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    VA-05
    Do we read Perriello's 8 point deficit in SUSA's last poll as really good news or not? Finally, it seems that SUSA doesn't have crazy methodology (Perriello is leading 18-34s by 8, which seems low but possible), but then again, SUSA also showed him down by 33 when his internals had him down in single-digits.

    This race is really the only on on the ballot in Virginia (no state elections, no senate elections, no pres), so it really is all about GOTV and base turnout. Hopefully Obama's visit can help turnout the base area of Charlottesville especially among young voters, while African Americans in the rest of the district turnout in stronger numbers than previous mid-terms (they are, at least according to the early vote)

    Obama is going there
    this evening (I believe) so there must be something that says it's close or why bother?

    He is going to Charlottesville.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    I take this as a sign
    that SUSA has re-worked its turnout model here into something remotely reasonable, and not as a sign of the trajectory of the race.  I suspect that Hurt has had a modest, stable lead for a long time.

    A somewhat bad sign for Periello is that the DCCC has not spent quite as much on him as it did the week before.  But it's still $140K and he has a financial advantage.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    I gather there's a difference in their methodology
    something like "random digit dialing" (now)

    v "random sampling of registered voters"

    [ Parent ]
    Correct, SUSA had used RBS in their polls showing Perriello down 20-25 points, and then...
    ...they did dual surveys last time, one with RBS and one with RDD.  The RDD survey showed Perriello down by a lot less than the RBS survey.

    So it looks like this time they did RDD only, a complete switch.

    They're certainly aware they've been trashed for their polls this cycle, and all the campaign experts singled out their VA-05 polling to trash them.  They really had to change something to save their reputation.

    Problem is, I bet both sides' private polling still show something closer than an 8-point race.  All the professional prognosticators say Perriello is still in it, that he's hung around and still has a shot long after everyone thought he'd have faded, and then the Obama visit and whatever else suggest this is tighter than 8 points.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, and one more tea leaf suggesting Perriello has a real shot......
    Ben Tribbett whose Not Larry Sabato blog covers Virginia politics tweeted a few days ago that he's not sure how to rate the VA-05, VA-11, and VA-09 races, that he was confident at that point only that Nye would lose.

    Ben, for those who don't know, is notorious for holding petty emotional grudges against particular Democratic elected officials and party officials, and he routinely backstabs his own party on his blog.  But one upside of all this is that he's not shy to say he thinks this or that Dem, even if he likes them, is going down in flames.

    So that he wasn't ready to commit, already so close to the election, to saying Perriello was toast is worth something as a tea leaf, IF his uncertainty is based on inside information he's received which may or may not be the case.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Just said Perriello was toast right now...
    Blames it on Obama's visit... talking about grudges... He's worse than Jerome Armstrong on that count.
    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    Good grief.
    [ Parent ]
    He really is Jerome Armstrong's mini-me. And regarding the substance of his critique......
    You know, I'd actually be open to hearing an honest and well-informed argument that Obama's visit hurts Perriello more than it helps.  Personally I think the calculation is smart, that Obama's strong popularity with white liberals and black voters and the absolute neceesity of getting outsized turnout from those groups makes the visit an ultimate plus.  This district doesn't have a lot of swing voters, a much higher percentage here habitually vote for the same party than in traditional swing districts.  And this being a midterm, a turnout advantage among GOP-favoring demographics is the default; it takes hard and creative work to overcome it.

    I don't question that there might still be some risk to Obama visiting, but it does Tom no good if the momentum of the past couple weeks that Ben Tribbett describes results in a 51-49 defeat, instead of the 57-43 defeat a less stellar campaign would have produced; it's a loss either way.  He needs to get over the hump, and it might just require taking a risk like this to get it done.

    But Ben ultimately remains a resentful Hillarybot.  Obama is much less a source of his resentment than Kaine, Connolly, and state Senator Dave Marsden simply because Ben is more involved in state and local poltiics, but the resentment is there.  And Ben's resentments discredit his judgment and analysis, provably so at times in the past.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    that is quite the grudgé
    Obama turn-out was the only reason Perriello won in the first place.
    [ Parent ]
    One of the many
    nice things about Obama winning Virginia was that turd of a legislator Virgil Goode being out of congress.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    VA-05
    While you are right about the SUSA polls "tightening" I think it has a lot to do with the fact that their initial polls were utter crap. I think that 8 point is a bit high as I think that it is likely about a 5 point Hurt lead and you are right that Perriello's only chance is to drastically increase turnout in Charlottesville area and among African-Americans in other parts of the district. In the end I think that this is likely about a 5 point Hurt lead. 8 points is likely more apt to be correct then say a Perriello win. Such a shame but it's a GOP year in a GOP leaning district. Whatever the result Perriello has done everything right and he still can have a political future should he choose it.

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Rothenberg now projecting +55-65 House seats
    That would be beyond disastrous....
    It would take a whole generation to recover, if not longer...
    [ Parent ]
    Not really
    Economy will be fine by 2014 at the latest.  When the economy is good people don't vote based on anger or fear.
    [ Parent ]
    Which means that the incumbents get locked in...
    So, it's a big problem getting those seats back.
    [ Parent ]
    uh no
    It's why Dems have the majority now and Gingrich isn't speaker.  Be serious.
    [ Parent ]
    It took Iraq and Mark Foley to get Democrats back the majority
    The only way I could see Democrats getting back a majority again would be a severe recession under a Republican President.  
    [ Parent ]
    Umm .. actually the opposite
    Bad economies work against incumbents and majorities, no matter which party. Man is the world-ending-it is spreading or what? Buck up, people! Haven't you ever lived through a bad cycle before, or am I the only one here over the age of 30?
    [ Parent ]
    No, you're not the only one over 30
        I lived through 1994 when the Greedy Old Party actually took a one seat majority in the CA Assembly. That was bad,
    although it was kind of amusing watching Willie Brown and the Dems outplay teh GOP and delay their takeover of the Assembly Speakership. We regained the majority two years later.

      I lived through 1980, when one of our local SFV Congressdudes lost his race by a few votes to an anti-busing activist because Jimmy Carter conceded the presidential race before the polls closed in CA. That sucked, but who remembers that Republican lady now? The Van Nuys Federal Building is named after the defeated Democrat, James Corman. We regained that seat later in the '80s.

      I lived through 1972, 1980 and 1984 when CA was a safe GOP state in the presidential races. Now we are a nearly safe state for any Democratic presidential nominee. Things will get better! Even this year Jerry and Babs are going to kick the asses (metaphorically, no Rand Paul thugs here) of Queen Meg and FAILorina. Stay Jerry, my friends...

       

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    Hey, same age!

    [ Parent ]
    Erm...

    Bad economies and 'ethics problems' work very harshly against incumbents...when they have used up their perceived usefulness in all other important areas of policy.

    I've expected a serious shave-down of Congressional Democrats this election after seeing that Democrats got to 59-60% of seats in both chambers on 53% of the popular vote in '08.  And I've become a believer in an eight year partisan cycle in federal politics.

    I think what's getting people down is that there has been a conceit inside the Party that the Obama Presidency would be qualitatively different from the Clinton Presidency and the Carter Presidency.  That has come into some doubt recently.  And now the first Obama Presidency midterm is not going to compare well with the 1994 midterm, for which much of the Party excoriated and scapegoated Clinton.  This election looks to break the 1994 "record" of 54 seats lost in the House and iirc six in the Senate.  Those ignorant of history, doomed to repeat it, etc.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not the same to me...
    there are way more things working against us here than before.  The economic downturn is more than likely the worst anyone alive has seen (unless some here lived through the Great Depression), two wars, increasingly global economy, and overall decline of the US (e.g. infrastructure, educational system, stagnant middle class wages). Plus, the 24-hour news media is worse now than before.

    I remember listening to some program on NPR with Dr. Roubini speaking about the economy about 1 month before the election.  He said that he did not envy the person who one because he predicted that they economy would not recover by the end of term and it would not help the person's re election prospects.  He said that the long -term fundamental outlook of the US economy was very weak. That scared me and now, I see what he meant.

    Yesterday, I read that, during his presidency, Bush had about 4 ugly books written about him and Clinton had 11.  Obama had 64 written about him in first 18 months in office.  Think about that for a minute...

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    I agree that
    the reactionary/resentment based right wing media machinery has now matured.  There's money in it and a lot of second and third rate former journalists have glommed on.  On the other hand, it all doesn't have the relatively wide impact or credibility or relevance it did during the early Nineties.  How many of those 64 books have any cred at all outside the circles inside the Right they were written for?

    In my opinion, all that stuff keeps on costing the right wing donors more money and sustains resistance.  They have a slowly but relentlessly shrinking proportion of the electorate to work with; it's still a majority at this point, but the end is in sight arithmetically.  As it shrinks it becomes less powerful.  And all that ever increasing money and fervor they invest serves mostly to keep those ever fewer and more faltering votes that keep them in majority being cast for them.

    But as its power drops it becomes more overtly extreme and that extremism becomes more tolerated as it strikes people as less capable of doing material harm.  So at the tipping point (imho around 2018-2020) of what is fundamentally a battle of generations the reactionaries will, I believe, be extreme in public compared to now.  The money expended to keep the Right in power in some form (they know the USSC is key) and the pre-Modern economic system unreformed will be as ridiculous.  The Right will probably get every last voter that leans their way even slightly.  Their problem is that the Grim Reaper is working against them.  Every day the graveyards absorb some more of the generations that desire restoration of the status quo of American life before 1968.

    So I'm sorry to say that I think the political horror house ride will continue for a while longer.  But we're within sight (if just barely) of a true tipping point.  As in all the great battles in American history the losing side will have thrown everything into the battle that it had and for many years looked as if it would prevail.  But the very attrition, that utter expenditure of itself, of the side that couldn't endure is what makes the outcome a permanent result.

    We are at a relatively horrible point in our economic life, that's true.  There are lots of hangover effects from the Cold War (and its lesser followup, the GWoT) due to failure of social investments.  There is the recession that follows on every war(lets) the U.S. engages in.  And these two things sadly quite coincident with the failure phase of the first, insustainable, stage of postindustrial economy- the overbuilding of a 'financial industry'.  We're into the second phase, which is overbuilding of expensive professional services (notably health care and law) which hasn't reached peak yet.  We're probably/hopefully at the beginning of the ascent of lots of scrappy, flexible, and relatively law-compliant and mid size, i.e. regional, corporations in lots of areas of American life.  The megacorporations seem near max out points in various ways, including government support.

    [ Parent ]
    There has NEVER been a cycle this bleak in modern history
    You would have to go back to 1920 to find an election where Democrats got beaten this badly and at least then, Democrats had good prospects for a rebound in 1922 because 1920 was a Presidential election and 1922 was a midterm under a Republican President.  
    [ Parent ]
    our incumbents didnt get locked in

    [ Parent ]
    Great point!

    [ Parent ]
    And further, THEIRS didn't get locked in, either, they went down in 2006 and 2008. One thing to remember...
    ...is that margins matter.  If we're within 20 seats, the GOP House isn't safe in 2012.

    What 1994 taught, and these 3 elections in a row remind, is that no one is ever really locked in.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Republicans locked in a majority for 12 years
    I fear that Democrats could be in the minority for 40 years just like Republicans after 1954.  Obama just had to get elected and screw up right before a redistricting election, didnt he?  Had McCain been elected, we would likely be picking up 30 seats this year and we would be the ones locking in a majority forever.  
    [ Parent ]
    Obama screwed up?
    that is rich...

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    He should have left the 50 state strategy in tact
    Rather than tearing it down and making the DNC simply a "reelect Obama" organization instead of an elect Democrats organization.  He should have given Democrats his leftover campaign money instead of hoarding it.  
    [ Parent ]
    Interesting that you've just registered
    seemingly just to put down the President of the United States.
    [ Parent ]
    Im not happy
    Obama could have done much more to help the Democratic party in these elections.  Instead, he just chose to protect his own brand and help himself in 2012.  Im sure you will be hearing more and more of this from people after the elections.  
    [ Parent ]
    They could,
    but unless they win something really astounding, like 80 seats, on Tuesday, they will essentially be taking back the seats they lost in the last two elections. These same seats are, for the most part, ones where Democrats got elected without a Democrat at the top of the ticket, and the ones that weren't aren't so red as to never elect a Democrat all. If they hold the House by, say, 15 seats, taking it back with a strong Obama campaign in 2012 shouldn't be that hard.

    Besides, if nothing else, the demographic trends appear to be working for us, not against us.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    It will be more than 15 seats
    They will likely have a solid 20-25 seat majority.  Getting 25 seats in 2012 will be very difficult.  
    [ Parent ]
    Depends
    on which seats they are.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    The "permanent majority" isn't happening
    for anyone in the near future. Dems held a lock on congress during that time primarily because of the Dixiecrats, and I don't see such large group voting for a party so ideologically distant from them in the near future.

    I'm worried about redistricting too, but that just means we'll just have to work harder (and that the GOP will get more complacent and overreach). As long as long-run demographic trends continue to favor Democrats, I think we'll survive whatever gerrymandering the GOP can throw at us.

    24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

    [ Parent ]
    Seems to be a trend

    Fifty years ago it was the norm that federal politicians were elected on the basis of tribalism of class, ethnicity, religion.  Which were rigid categories at the time.  They were the representatives of their specific tribal group(s) of people in Washington.  They 'locked in' with their voters and their voters judged them according to how well they identified with and advanced their group's specific interests.  If the politician flipped on an issue, that was judged inside his district according to what social and material good it did his core constituents and whether it was in line with their sense of their social group identity.  The Kennedys of the 1930s to 1960s would be a perfect example.

    It's been a long slow transition, but the national population has grown from just under 200 million then to somewhat over 300 million now.  No one has increased the number of districts, so politicians represent at least 50% larger populations than they did then and therefore pay the average voter correspondingly less attention.  A lot fewer average people fit into specific or traditional boxes of class, education level, ethnicity, or religion than they did then.  So when a politician pays attention to a specific group of constituents, it's attention paid to ever smaller proportions of their voters.

    Politicians as a class had to adjust and had to redefine their constituencies more broadly and in increasingly abstract terms as the years have passed.  The interests of these constituencies likewise had to be redefined in more and more general terms.  The net effect has been that the relationship of electorates and their politicians has become increasingly based in ideological affinity or ideological identity.  And that relationship doesn't really solidify, doesn't win the trust or loyalty of average opposition voters, doesn't cross the increasingly strong ideological lines.  Plus, the lines move.  Slowly, but they do.

    In poor districts we still see the first kind of politician, the tribal sort, succeed.  In well off districts the second kind has been predominant for a while.  As the country has gotten more socially diffuse and poverty is losing its intensity, the midrange districts have elected more ideologically defined and more ideologically based representatives.  Driving around in a pickup truck or waving a shotgun, or visiting a temple wearing a yarmulke is perceived to be increasingly quaint or sentimental.

    [ Parent ]
    You're Assuming A Lot.....
    For most working class Americans the economy will never be "fine" again and even during times of statistical economic growth their fates will only get worse and worse and worse.  The worthwhile working-class jobs that have already gone will never be back, and the ones still around are all going.  The majority of Americans are stuck in an economy where the only real growth industry is wiping old people's asses.  As a consequence, expect these voters' political allegiance to swing back and forth like a pendulum from cycle to cycle, going from Sherrod Brown one year to Sharron Angle the next.
    [ Parent ]
    And the economy doesn't always dictate
    Wars, social breakdown (1966) and scandal (1974, 2006) are often responsible for "wave" elections.
    [ Parent ]
    We've dealt with this before
    America has resilient people. Certain love are gone, others will come along.
    [ Parent ]
    Yes We Have Dealt With This Before.....
    ....and by and large we're still dealing with it from when it happened before.  The regions of the country with the most angry voters saw the first of their permanent job erosion in the 1970s.  And it ramped up in the 80s.  And despite the tech bubble that didn't affect them, it continued in the 90s.  And then it really ramped up again in the 2000s, with the 2010s showing identical trendlines.  So it's not really a matter of "resiliency".  It's a matter of entire demographics of the angriest Americans losing everything and never recovering from it.  And it will create wild political turbulence for the foreseeable future as decades worth of being decimated has officially reached a point of a four-alarm inferno for these people.
    [ Parent ]
    not really
    Can't look at it in a vacuum.  The places suffering the most are hemmoraging population.  They rapidly become a vocal minority.  So America as a whole is just fine.  The rust belt suffers and that's done nothing in the last 40 years to slow the American economy.
    [ Parent ]
    But The Rest Of The Economy Is Not Based On Anything Real.....
    You cannot maintain economic growth with binge consumption of goods produced exclusively in other places of the world.  Cheap credit and financial three-card monte helped to artificially prop up an overextended former middle class for a couple of decades, but that bubble has now burst with nothing left but pipe dreams about green energy as a possible salvation.  Making matters worse, that cheap credit made possible with historically low interest rates for a generation now is poised to make it impossible for most people to afford to retire as their savings are creeping up ever so slowly.  

    It really blows my mind how many people don't appreciate that most economic growth of the last three decades has been phony and unsustainable...and that our economy has cataclysmic structural problems that will be reducing the quality of life for a vast majority of our citizens as it already has been for many.

    [ Parent ]
    Need to end it
    You can tall policy in regards to candidates and voting patterns and such.  But this convoy is going off the path.
    [ Parent ]
    Pessimism about Ds in '10 is one thing
    Pessimism about the future of America is something else. May I just suggest that you read James Fallows' "More Like Us".
    [ Parent ]
    It would actually just take one
    reasonably good cycle to win back the 21 seats the Republicans would be up if they took 60 seats this year.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    If the GOP took 60 we'd be guaranteed to win back at least 10 in 2012......
    The Presidential election with Obama getting his turnout back up and the fact of some of those 60 being in Democratic districts would make around 10 pickups easy.  Getting the next 10 would be harder, but very doable with the likely turnout model we'll see which, among other things, would again be at least 26% non-white and probably more like 28% based on the linear trendline over past several Presidential elections.

    A lot depends on exactly WHICH seats Republicans win on Tuesday.  The more blue seats they take, the more emotional pain we'll feel that night and for some months afterward, but also the more precarious the GOP House majority really is.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    suburban seats
    If it's the NJ-3s, PA-8s, NY-19s, and the NV-3s that fall, then it's going to be Obama's ability or lack thereof to win back independents in 2012 that will determine whether we take them back.  No doubt the base will be fired up again in the more urban areas, but Republicans aren't playing for that many seats there.  Will places like Bucks County, PA back Obama again in 2012 at the levels they did in 2008?  I'm not ready to say we're going to win anything back right away until we see another year, and especially until we see how redistricting goes...
    [ Parent ]
    Ah redistricting
    These elections are not going to help us with that effort.  Go Alex Sink
    [ Parent ]
    not if nationwide unemployment is 10 percent
    I wouldn't count on big gains in the House.

    However, if Sink wins and FL becomes less gerrymandered we should pick up a few seats there.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not 10% now and it won't be 10% in 2012. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Hell...
    why not do even better. They blame Obama for the 1mil jobs lost in 1/09 and he wasn't even sworn in till the end of the month.  They blamed him for the bad stock market when he started but they do not give him credit for it being back up.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    it's 9 percent now
    and it could easily be 10 percent in 2012. Congress won't provide any further real stimulus. They'll call extending all the Bush tax cuts and making estate tax repeal permanent a stimulus, but that won't do anything for the economy.
    [ Parent ]
    Government is not the only component of the economy
    The economy is growing, though slowly. Steady growth, even of the slow variety, does improve consumer and business confidence -- like it did in the mid-90s.

    And economies are recovering around the world too. Though it'll be interesting to see if China and Germany can truly be locomotives for world economic growth this cycle.

    Nevertheless, the contractions that will happen, e.g. if the remaining stimulus is revoked, will hurt.

    [ Parent ]
    Mid 1990's growth was fairly brisk
    4.4% in 1994
    2.5% in 1995(the weakest year)
    3.7% in 1996

    It took until mid-1996 before most people thought the economy was in good shape.  

    [ Parent ]
    sure we can, blame the 10% unemployment
    on the GOP House.  We got blamed for helping the cause so we should in turn blame them for what will probably a lot of hullaboo with few legislative accomplishments.
    [ Parent ]
    A generation?
    20 years?  Even if they Republicans gained 70 seats, they would still have less seats than the Democrats have now.  A decade or so I could see.  As what happened between 94 and '06.  But a generation is way too long.
    [ Parent ]
    If they take that many, some of it won't be easy to hold
    The higher the gains, the less chance of sustainability. It really depends on what sort of House that Boehner runs and how Obama frames it. If Obama emulates Truman, then Democrats get the House back in 12.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    Could happen
    It would be the true definition of a wave.  Right now I think everyone's estimate is above 50.
    [ Parent ]
    Rothenberg was one of the more...
    "conservative" as in less GOP wavey than the other prognosticators, so that's definitely disturbing...
    [ Parent ]
    He had been more reasonable
    but then he just went apeshit with this last batch.  If you gave each side the leaners and split the toss-ups evenly in his October 22 list, you got to 41 pickups.  This week it's 57.  And WTF has happened this week to justify that?  Peer pressure?  Falling in line?

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    41 was too favorable
    57 slightly pessimistic.  I'd guess 55 right now.
    [ Parent ]
    That's where I'm at
    54, right now.
    [ Parent ]
    well good
    Upper bound 70, lower bound 40.  I'm happy in the middle.  Not happy per se, but think its reasonable.  I just don't see how 40 or 70 is possible in reality.  
    [ Parent ]
    he has always came off quite biased

    [ Parent ]
    The most pro-R of the big 3
    Cook and Sabato.

    The major beef I have with his ratings is in the tossup category.  He has races that, in my view, based on the polling, should at least be tossup/tilt D:  Giffords, Acuri, Schaeur, Heinrich, Critz, Rodriquez and Wilson.

    [ Parent ]
    Completely agreed
    Except for maybe Rep. Critz. Then again, people underestimated Critz this one time...

    I don't see Rep. Heinrich losing, even in this cycle. I think Reps. Arcuri, Schaeur, Giffords, and Rodriguez will hang on, too (in decreasing level of confidence). Not sure about Rep. Wilson; that one really comes down to the unions' GOTV operation in his district.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    OMG...
    I think that I am going to be sick...I guess that it is really that bad out there. Are no Dems voting or something?  It would be a nightmare. Maybe, I should start my unplugging from politics as of today.  

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    I don't understand it, either...
    It makes no sense whatsoever...
    [ Parent ]
    my boss forgot to give me next Wed off
    I figure its for the best that I don't stay up til 5am pouring over the numbers.  I'm gonna go party my butt off for Mark Dayton and will do my best to ignore everything else that night.  (I say that now...)

    Mark Dayton!!!

    [ Parent ]
    The Numbers From The "Experts" Are Moving Ever-Closer.....
    ....to Mark prediction territory.
    [ Parent ]
    When they get to 90, sell

    [ Parent ]
    lol
    They're actually closer to everyone else on here. But thank god you're here celebrating your being right.  93 or 55, same difference.  Lol.

    Adding nothing to the conversation with that post.

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, that's the thing about Mark, he is truly ROOTING to be right, at America's expense. As I commented before...
    ...Tekzilla posts gloom and doom predictions but makes clear in the same breath how much it depresses him.  We know whose side he's on (and of course it's ours).  Certain others here, not so much.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Thank You Dr. Freud.....
    Rothenberg's throwing out the 70 number.  My guess is by Sunday the numbers 75 and 80 will start being muttered.  I'm sure it's easier to ascribe sinister motives to me than to acknowledge that conventional wisdom of substantial but not overwhelming GOP gains, which you bought into, appears less likely.  I guess we'll know officially on Tuesday night, but if my high-end loss predictions are vindicated, as increasingly appears likely, I'm gonna let my presence be known after all the smack I took.
    [ Parent ]
    and if they are not vindicated
    Will you be gone forever?
    [ Parent ]
    Nope.....
    I'll own up to it if I'm wrong too.
    [ Parent ]
    Cyclone is right
    Your attitude stinks. Some of us are projecting things like Sharron Angle winning and hoping against hope we are wrong while in post after post you take perverse pleasure in any scrap that might prove your predictions anywhere close to being correct. It is nauseating.
    [ Parent ]
    Apparently You're Only Reading The Posts.....
    ....where I'm raising doubts.  Overall, it's only been about 10% of my posts in recent days.  My interest is to cut losses any places possible, but those options are becoming increasingly limited.
    [ Parent ]
    Yea,
    I mean, I have been tending to think that the numbers will be on the higher end of things, but I haven't even been posting them and for sure on a Dem blog like this one, I wouldn't be crowing about it.  I've been waiting for Monday to post the number of house seats I see the GOP picking up, but I'm not going to make a big deal about it.  Mark reminds me of the kid in High School who is always talking about how badly the football team sucks and talking crap about how much they are going to get blown out by on Friday night.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    It's a defense mechanism.
    If Dems get blown out he can brag "hey, I was right", and if it's not nearly as bag he was wrong, but hey GOP only got a 5 seat majority.  

    It's like betting against your favorite team.  If they lose you get money, if they win who cares about the money - they won.  

    It's hedging.  

    [ Parent ]
    Probably Closer To Right Than Anybody Else.....
    ...regarding the psychology.
    [ Parent ]
    GOP posters
    By and large are very respectful here.  I'm not even sure how you found this place, but thank god for the other side having their say.

    Even some of the banned (temporarily or permanent) ones tended to offer some very goo information/commentary, even if they eventually went off the deep-end.

    I enjoy the conversations, I'll save my predictions for the election night predictions thread and my next trip to Vegas :-)

    [ Parent ]
    SSP
    I don't remember how I found it, either.  It was back in '08, but I lurked for a long time before finally registering sometime this year and starting to post.  I have to guard myself where it comes to posting about candidates I'm very enthusiastic about (like John Kasich) but mainly I just enjoy talking about the numbers.  I've always been a horse race guy - I follow politics in many countries; it's like sports to me.  I can't tell you the starting lineup of the Miami Dolphins, but I can tell you the results of the last elections in Sweden and Israel. :)

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    I was hoping you meant real horseracing
    Now that i enjoy.
    [ Parent ]
    that's NEXT weekend!
    Go Zenyatta :)
    [ Parent ]
    Haha catch her while you can
    Gotta figure she'll be retired soon.  without rachel to challenge her, what does she have left to prove...

    [ Parent ]
    Horse Races
    Horse races are over way too quick - a ton of buildup for, what, 90 seconds of action?  I enjoy going to the dog track every now and then, but that's just because I like dogs.  My dad used to go, but would never bet - he just liked to look at the dogs!

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Its an outdoor party
    Its not about the racing at all.  Its the drinking and gambling.  They could have pig races and the turnout would be about the same.  or conversely, take away the drinking and gambling and see what horseracing becomes.

    Do you live in Ohio btw?  I saw your post about Kasich but was wondering if had special insight there.

    [ Parent ]
    No
    No, I split my time between Florida and The Bahamas (the country of my birth).  I just have loved John Kasich from his time on the budget committee as I'm a deficit hawk.  I was behind his run for Prez in 2000, switching to McCain when he dropped out prior to the voting.
    I also liked Kasich's sense of humor, too.  I used to watch him on CSpan a lot.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    He ran for President?
    Clearly I'm not a studied man on GOP presidnetial politics.  

    So does Kasich have baggage?  I was reading the other day that someone on ehre said he did, but I'm too lazy to look it up since I think that race is over.

    [ Parent ]
    Kasich
    He ran for president in the 2000 cycle, but did not get much support in the early going, so he dropped out before the actual voting began and endorsed Bush.  I didn't like Bush, so I looked for another candidate and quickly settled on McCain.
    Kasich, back when the GOP was in the house minority, had teamed up with a moderate Dem called Tim Penny from MN and they used to produce, every year, a budget called the Penny/Kasich budget which was offered up (never won, of course) because they were both deficit hawks and wanted to show how the budget could be cut.  After 1994, he became the chairman of the budget committee and (with help from Clinton) produced the first budget surpluses of the modern era.  The GOP had a three year term limit on committee chairman, so his time was up in 2000, which was why he quit cogress and had a run for Prez.
    His baggage has to do with the fact that after he dropped out, he then went to work for Lehman Brothers.  Given the whole Wall Street brouhaha, this was not exactly something he wanted to highlight this time around.  It did hurt him some, but it looks like the year is just to GOP for it to keep him from winning.  We'll see how he succeeds if wins; he should have a GOP state house and senate, so he's got every chance to succeed.  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Nobody
    is saying that you are absolutely, positively going to be wrong. What people are saying is that a loss of seats over 90 is exceedingly unlikely--as in, probably less than five percent--based on history and based on polling data. A loss of seats that high would mean the Democrats loss pretty much every single toss up race, even in the deep blue states like New York, where there's been little to no spending from the red side, among other things.

    Think of it this way. It's possible that the Democrats could lose only 20 seats on Tuesday, but how likely is it?


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Far Less Likely Than 90.....
    ....just as 40 now seems less likely than 90.
    [ Parent ]
    Only if you're on drugs.


    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    What?!
    Are you even looking at the polls coming out district by district?  Because if you are, you would realize just what a totally asinine post that was.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    Attacking the motives of other posters is verboten on SSP.
    This is really not an appropriate thing for one user to accuse another of. Don't do this. Mark has a long record here; he isn't rooting for doom.
    [ Parent ]
    OK, you're vouching for him, and obviously I trust you. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    This should not be done in general.
    If someone is cheerleading for the other side, we as admins will take care of them -- as we very often do, trust me.
    [ Parent ]
    OK. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    What are the rules
    About linking to a site with a picture of me in a cheerleading outfit if its for the Dems?  There's some vagueness there... :-)

    [ Parent ]
    10
    Thanks.

    I'm actually on the more optimistic side now as far as the house I think.  I don't really see us losing more than 50.

    29/D/Male/NY-01

    [ Parent ]
    Nobody's inching towards your
    absurd prediction.  Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg are done, and there is no comparison.  You are on an island with Newt Gingrich, John Boehner, and Dick Morris.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Cook's turn to be closest
    It was Sabato in 2006 and Rothenberg in 2008.
    [ Parent ]
    Sadly, I'm rooting for Cook!
    He's giving us the best numbers... besides Nate, of course...
    [ Parent ]
    MD-Sen
    Who is polling this and why.  Lol.  At least mikulski will finally chair a committee.
    So what happened in MD this year?
    O'Malley is doing fine. No other House races were put into play beyond the obvious Kravotil (which seems to still be in contention, instead of an easy win for Harris). I thought that the other Democrat elected in 2002 with Van Hollen - can't remember his name right now - might have a race. Then you have the Senate seat. In 2004 the Washington Post tried to write Mikulski up as having a potentially competitive race. It didn't even seem to go that far this year.

    Did the GOP blow their chances on retreads, or are they saving a lot of their time and money for the state legislature? Anyone know about where that might go this year? I remember in 2006 reading about some of their most hostile firebrands getting reelected. I would be amused if they lost this year, in a good GOP year. Not counting on it though.

    [ Parent ]
    Large middle class..
    AA county (Prince George's) that is a killing fields for statewide Republicans when these voters show up to the polls.
    Also, Montogomery County is even more Democratic now than it was several years back when Ehlrich won.

    Realistically, the same should be true of IL but I have no idea what is up with Chicago this year.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    Assuming we're still in the majority.

    [ Parent ]
    Or be ranking member.

    [ Parent ]
    Do you know
    Has she gotten screwed in the past or did she just not want the committee chair role.  She is so high up in seniority its never made sense that she didn't have the committee post of her choosing.
    [ Parent ]
    It's mostly the committees she's on
    Mikulski is on two very powerful and desirable committees, Appropriations and HELP. She has built seniority on both but has always had even more senior senators ahead of her (Harkin, Inouye, Dodd, Kennedy.) If she had been assigned to different committees, she might be a chair by now, but those two are very hard to crack.

    Unless Inouye steps aside at Appropriations, there's no guarantee Mikulski will be a chair this coming Congress. She ranks behind him, Leahy (Judiciary Chair), and Harkin (HELP chair) there, and is second to Harkin on HELP.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Because of the committees she's on?
    I believe Senate Dems typically appoint committee chairs/ranking members based on seniority within the committees. Since Mikulski is on approps, HELP, and intelligence and Inouye, Harkin and Feinstein will still be there I don't see her as chair/ranking member. Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
    [ Parent ]
    Oh so that's it
    Well godbless ehr for sticking it out and trying to get there with the big committee's.  Odds are she'll get one or the other eventually, sh'e got a dang secure seat there.  

    With Ehrlich going down this cycle I can't think of how bad their bench will be in 2016 when she's up for re-election again.

    [ Parent ]
    Scotty has Brown up by only 4
    49-45.  Shilling for his party to the very end, I guess.
    Link
    [ Parent ]
    And moved it to tossup
    I will take some consolation next week if and when he gets shown up.
    [ Parent ]
    I was surpirsed
    I was surprised to see it as a tossup for sure.  I've never really accepted that he's trying to drive a narrative and that he'd drop the numbers into line with everyone else when the election came and for sure he's not doing that in this race.  He must really believe that's where things stand now (though I don't).  This is going to be a most interesting election - I'm very curious to see which pollsters have the best records.  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Me too
    I'm sure he believes it.  That's not the problem.  It's whether we can believe him.
    [ Parent ]
    Whitman
    says she's in a dead heat and surging against Brown according to her internals. I guess this depends on how good a GOTV machine Whitman has assembled.

    http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Or how good a bullshit machine she has...
    Sounds like the latter...
    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    also the fact that she's "surging" with like 4 days left until election day is not a good position to be stuck in. Especially after spending $162 million. Corzine and Christie were trading leads by this time (granted Corzine was the incumbent but he was still hated).

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    if you were here a year and a few months ago
    You'd believe Scotty is nothing but a GOP schill whose main goal has been to drive a narrative.  Some of us have been here from the beginning of the cycle (or are on our second cycle!) and it's clear to us that Rasmussen is an agenda-oriented pollster who does as much as he can to make the GOP look good.

    And how I believe he set a narrative was that I find politics to be made up of self-fulfilling prophecies as politics is all about perception instead of reality.  The reality is that TARP saved us from a global depression, the perception is that it was a giant waste of money and was a freebie for Wall Street and that's the narrative that won.  Rasmussen created the perception that races were competitive when they weren't by cooking the numbers; someone like Dino Rossi who sees, oh look I'm up 7% against Murray, maybe I should run for Senate.  And then donors are suddenly lining up because the race is competitive.  

    And I use WA-Sen as an example as once Scotty got a whiff that Rossi may be interested, he had numbers out the next day and they were so bad that even Rossi had to say his camp doubted he'd be up that much.  And its not just the numbers but really who and when chooses to poll.  He's never tacked on the DE-Al poll because he knows it is a D pick-up.  People can argue, well that race is a gimmee and isn't competitive, well neither is AR-Sen but we see Lincoln's tales of woe weekly.

    You also really gotta wonder how Rasmussen managed to rake in so much money to be literally the only public pollster in the field as early and as plentiful as he was this cycle.  Might as well call it Koch Reports.

    [ Parent ]
    Field Poll, which is the gold standard of polling in California, has Brown up 10
    That's pretty much what I would consider the best last word. Granted, the final race numbers could end up looking like this, but that wouldn't be that bad at all, considering that third parties will probably take 2% or so and make Brown's total look smaller.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    We call it the "Trusted Field Poll"tm
       but we still are going to power out on GOTV. There are some important statewide offices that might hang in the balance; Debra Bowen for SoS, John Chiang for Controller, David "Bowie" Jones for Insurance Commissioner, and Kamala Harris for AG. Harris is the underdog; the only way she wins is with a big turnout of our voters.

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
    [ Parent ]
    PA-SEN: Again, Ignore Muhlenberg
    It's based on a sample of 48% R, 43% D -- so, yes, if more Republicans vote than Democrats, Toomey will win.  Duh.  That's not going to happen.
    They might be pushing indies on party ID???......
    When you see numbers like that, it often means the pollster pushes self-identified indies to see if they lean one way or the other, then count leaners as partisans.

    Any chance Mule is doing that?

    I realize even with that type of pushing of leaners that there should not be 48% Rs, but still that would help explain it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    was thinkin the same
    9% Indies is very low, even for PA.
    [ Parent ]
    CNN 2008 Exit Poll
    Had it at 44 D, 37 R, 18 Indy.  
    [ Parent ]
    Well that explains it
    Still if pushing leaners is pushing up GOP, that's not good.
    [ Parent ]
    SUSA's crosstabs
    The crosstabs are out in SUSA's Washington poll, and it's clear why Rossi has closed the 3% gap: While his lead has dropped among independent, the partisan breakdown has gone from 36D-27R to 33D-29R.

    It was +10 for Ds in 2010, so that's too big a gap for Washington.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

    Twitter.com/Taniel

    Twitter.com/Taniel

    At least that's reasonable
    Do Indies usually make up the plurality though?
    [ Parent ]
    It's not that unbelievable
    My own voter model has Dems with a 36-32 advantage.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Boxer
    up 49 to 41% in the new field poll released. (No pie charts in this Chronicle article though.)

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    Babs will be doing a rally today
      at CSUN (Cal State Northridge) right here in the SFV. 12:45 in the Grand Salon. Not only will Boxer be there but we will also have a rare DiFi sighting (or so I'm told). Boxer was on fire when I saw her Sunday at the DP/SFV GOTV rally at the Van Nuys HQ.  

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
    [ Parent ]
    Shenanigans out in Alaska...
    On the last day of filing to be a write-in candidate over 100 people signed on to be write-in candidates.  Conservative radio host Dan Fagan pushed his listeners to do it in hopes of confusing write-in voters.  If lists are handed out, there will be a list of 118 candidates listed alphabetically.

    Here is the list of all candidates - http://www.elections.alaska.go...

    Now many that could be confused for Murkowski.  There is a "Lee Hamerski" but I wonder if that person is real.  Also a "Lisa M. Lackey" another I doubt really exists. I suspect these two will be used for any spelling error challenges.  

    I still think Miller has to be the favorite, given he in on the ballot and has the [R] after his name.  I think usual Dem voters who vote strategically for Murkowski will end up giving Miller the win, splitting the vote from McAdams.  If Scott got the usual 35+ that any Dem candidate usually gets, he'd probably win.  

    Shoudln't they verify the names as being real...
    ...before putting them on the list?  That just seems like gross negligence.

    The fact is, the Alaska BOE is clearly in Murkowski's court.  I doubt this will change much.

    [ Parent ]
    I get it!
    Lisa M. is a lackey!  Probably meant more as a dig than a spelling challenge.  The first one, though, definitely for spelling.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm
    surprised no one changed their names to Lisa Murkowski to run.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    you mean Lissa Murkwsky?


    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
    [ Parent ]
    More on automated polls from Nate
    This cycle --

    SurveyUSA has a R+4.0 house effect
    Rasmussen has a R+2.1 house effect

    If I'm reading Nate's charts correctly Rasmussen has run 1200 polls this cycle....

    SurveyUSA is second at 120 polls.

    In addition, if I'm reading this right, Nate does make adjustments to poll numbers:

    The other tricky bit is in figuring out what the "right" answer should be. For instance, say that Rasmussen Reports polls are 5 points more favorable to Republicans, on average, than polls from Siena College. Do we adjust the Rasmussen polls to match the Siena ones, or the other way around? The answer, of course, is somewhere in between.

    (para split for readability)

    Specifically, we calculate a weighted average from all the polling firms in our universe, where the weights are based mostly on pollster quality. The idea is to estimate what our polling average would show in a particular state or district if every polling firm in our universe conducted an infinite number of polls there.

    NV-Sen: Angle up 4
    Is Angle really winning 11 percent of Democrats?
    I have to call bullshit there.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    There are many reasons to call bs on a poll
    Quibbling over maybe a dozen voters in a subsample is not one of them (assuming the real number is 5% instead of 11%)
    [ Parent ]
    So then why is it
    okay to call bullshit on that poll?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    When the difference is statistically significant
    and is something that cannot be explained by random variation.

    As for the why:

    1) Actual voting, as described above -- maybe half, perhaps a lot more of the actual vote has already been cast, and the numbers are OK (though much less than comfy) for Reid
    2) Favorability numbers for Angle are whacked, relative to other pollsters (except Rassmussen)

    There are other suspicious numbers, e.g. 2% for NOTA. But the small level of that number does not itself rise to the level of statistical significance. However, it may be an indicator of a Rasmussen style push of voters to do anything but NOTA -- which would be a methodology issue.

    [ Parent ]
    tietack said "a" poll, not "that" poll, which means...
    ...he's not commenting either way on that poll, he's saying one cannot trust, in any poll, the crosstabs for a small subsample.  And he's correct.

    I no longer have a feel for what will happen in NV-Sen.  Those public polls could be dead-on right.  Or the tea leaves from Ralston could prove right.  I just don't know anymore.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe I'm turning into a (relatively) optimistic pollyana here
    But I think there are substantive reasons to call BS on that particular poll, as described above (but probably posted after you started writing your response).

    Big picture w/r/t polling -- there's a serious question on the difference between robo and live polls.

    It's (too) easy to say that the answer is somewhere in the middle. But --

    *if in this election, if the live polls are correct, we hold the House.

    *if the robopolls are correct, the losses in the House will approach 60. (Ironically, AFAIK, M-D is a live pollster.)

    And Rassussen (and friends) have flooded the polling zone, shifting the expectations window.

    [ Parent ]
    look at the MOE
    The margin of error on a subsample of around 250 people (Democrats in the poll) is probably +/- 7,8, or even 9(?)  So that 11 could be anything from 3-20%.  I could see it being a little lower than 11, but there are still some of those "old Democrats" who are now anti-Reid.  Don't think the label "Democrat" means that 100% of them are like us.
    [ Parent ]
    Don't thibnk that everyone tells the truth either
    As I continue to read more about the power of polling and the mentality of people in America I wonder more about polling.  After being on this site I honestly abhor all polls but find the statistical analysis part fun.

    In the future, I think you'll have some of the more extreme blogs urging people polled in close races to identify themsleves as the wrong party and then say who they are voting for truthfully.  In a 500 person sample, even 10-15 lies about cross-over voting paints a potential narrative.  As this thread could clearly show.

    On another not, sometimes people want to vote for the winner, the guy who they are told by the media will win.  So I think polling is too dang powerful right now.

    [ Parent ]
    i almost mentioned this, too, but i wanted to keep it brief
    I worked with a guy that was a solid R and he said whenever he was polled, he said he was a Democrat AND that he was supporting all Democrats.  I asked why, and he said it made his vote count for double, because the Democrats would feel safer thinking he was +1 for them, but then on Election Day he'd be +1 for Republicans.  
    [ Parent ]
    Most polling proves accurate, in the right ballpark of the actual outcome, so I doubt...
    ...very many people lie to a pollster.  That's a foolish gambit, not unlike voting in an opposite party's primary to try to help a weak prospective nominee win.  Hardly anyone really does these things, so they don't work.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Mason-Dixon. Discussed above
    and elsewhere.
    [ Parent ]
    Reid and Murray are in real trouble.
    I know folks here love to discredit any polls that they don't like, but these pollsters are professionals who only have their reputations to keep them in business.  These are likely their last releases, so they're trying their damndest to nail the results at this point.  
    [ Parent ]
    So then this one should make Murray happy
    [ Parent ]
    Hasn't at least
    half of Washington voted already? And what about the early voting results from Nevada?

    I'm of the mind that these polls don't tend to be the equivalent of pulling information out of thin air, simply because it's expensive to do and people are unlikely to throw around money like that. So why not simply take a look at the internals of the poll and see what they are like? That's exactly what people here do. It's very inexact, but it's not rocket science.

    If you do that with the LVRJ poll that finds Angle up by four, you'll see she is winning 11 percent of Democrats. I find that very, very hard to believe, so I am not really giving a lot of credit to that poll.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Reid more than murray
    But we knew that all along.  I mean most voting is done in WA, and that was done with Murray in a bit of a lead.  There's not much evidence of a ROssi surge or that one would even matter.  I think she squeaks by.

    I can't make a bet on NV, its another one of the 15 or so whackjob races this cycle.

    [ Parent ]
    Indeed it is
    NV-Sen, NV-03, AK-Sen, HI-01, FL-25, FL-Gov, IL-Sen, OR-05, PA-11, CO-Gov, and ME-Gov are some true blue head-scratchers.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Reid yes.
    I seriously doubt Murray is in trouble though. In Washington most people have already voted and SUSA's numbers and Rass show a tie, it's true but that goes against what everyone else has including a recently released poll today. I'll wait for more data but I feel pretty good about Murray. Now Reid, yeah I think he's probably a goner.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I'm nervous about WA-Sen now and can see an upset loss......
    Election night is going to be bad, and I'm bracing myself for our losing some that we go into election day thinking we'll win.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Remain confident about WA
    As I said at the top.  And the 6 point lead she has in the Washington Poll I posted a couple of posts up means more to me than whatever SUSA and Scotty Republican have to say.

    I think it's more likely that the unpleasant upsets will be in the house rather than the senate.

    [ Parent ]
    Consolation
    They don't have all the votes counted election night do they?  I thought they were the slow counting state.  Did I confuse them with another mail-in state?
    [ Parent ]
    Nope, you got it right
    WA accepts votes --postmarked-- by election day
    OR accepts votes only if they arrive by some mid evening hour on election night (I forget the exact hour)
    [ Parent ]
    To elaborate on WA
    King county (Seattle area) is notoriously slow w/r/t counting. So it's quite possible that Murray will be behind on election night -- and still win by say 5.
    [ Parent ]
    Oh good
    Well that's fine.  Can't imagine Alaska will be decided election night either, but who knows, Miller may pull it out.

    Can't think of any other slow Senate races 9even the close ones I still think will be called election night since they are in big states where close in % terms is still ALOT of votes).

    Mayeb the tie-breaker for the predictiosn thread on election night should be when will the last Senate or House race be called for the winner and validated by the relevant SoS.

    What a world vote-counting has become...

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not nervous about Washington
    That doesn't mean election night is going to be good but I am convinced Murray will pull off a 6-8 point win.

    The Washington Poll released today gives her a 6 point lead. No other poll has more closely predicted the outcomes of Washington races. The Washington poll has on average understated Democratic margins by .6.

    In contrast SURVEY USA and Rasmussen consistently understate Democratiic margins by 4+ points.

    I am a senior Washington resident and follow races very closely. I'm a former county party officer who used to manage campaigns (first in 1982 and last in 2002).

    WA 06

    [ Parent ]
    Off the beaten path
    I know we all hate the slowness with which Washington counts votes, but seriously, isn't it amazing that mail-in voting draws turnout of 60, 70, 80+% year in, year out.  Now that's democracy in action.
    [ Parent ]
    I like mail in voting but Washington has always had high voter
    turnout. The WA Sec of State is predicting a 68% turnout for 2010. (67% turnout in off year 1982 and 79% turnout in 1984)
    [ Parent ]
    Well, let's see what Ralston calls on this one
    I read through his tweets and there is apparently a pretty serious feud going on between him and the LVRJ, especially the publisher of the latter paper, who has been somewhat of the anti-Ralston this cycle (he thinks that the public polling of the race is correct.)  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    the LVRJ might be to the right of Sharon Angle
    if that's possible.
    [ Parent ]
    Is it? That would explain it
    Still, it's surprising to see two journalists at each other's throats like this. Maybe it's a Nevada thing.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Now that UFC bought that other fighting group
    Maybe we could have journalists fighting to the death as a professional "sport".  I can think it'd draw very high ratings, especially for the top political journalists.
    [ Parent ]
    I didn't realize that it was so strongly to the right...
    But this kind of showcases it:

    http://www.lvrj.com/politics/r...

    also...

    http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/33...

    Almost all of the Democrats are token when it's not a competitive race...

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Sen: Brown, Boxer up 9, 4
    Scotty R says Patrick by 2
    As I posted above, Suffolk says Patrick by 7.

    http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

    Another Maine Gov poll
    This time by a pollster I've never heard of.

    LePage 37, Cutler 31, Mitchell 22.

    http://www.wlbz2.com/news/loca...

    Mitchell has to know she can't win by now
    If I were a Maine Dem, I'd be encouraging her to throw her support to Cutler to keep LePage out of office.

    (I'm assuming Cutler is a sane, non-fringe and somewhat progressive candidate from the 15 seconds I spent looking him up on Google. Am I right about that?)

    24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

    [ Parent ]
    Cutler
    He's an environmental lawyer, and plenty sane.

    New England could have two independents as Governors come Wednesday.

    [ Parent ]
    Is there heavy early voting in Maine?

    [ Parent ]
    State just has absentee
    [ Parent ]
    You are generally correct
    He is closer to the "center", but absolutely sane and non-fringe. And i would do the same.
    [ Parent ]
    Libby
    Mitchell needs to drop out. It is clear that Culter is better than LePage and her dropping out would probably seal the deal for him.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    She needs to do it soon
    The nation votes Tuesday. Her name is on the ballot. Mainers need to know, if she drops out, that she is no longer in the running.

    But I like Cutler to win if she throws over to him today or tomorrow. I doubt she will, but if she does, I think Cutler would thrash LePage in a two-horse race.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    Bachmann might not support Boehner as Speaker
    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-...

    I would not be surprised if she somehow managed to get herself elected Speaker.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    Watch Pence
    There's guaranteed to be some sort of divide between the old-school, backroom pols like Boehner and the younger, grassroots, Tea Party types. Pence seems like someone who could appeal to large segments of both and could be an option if there is wide discontent with Boehner.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Higher office?
    There were rumors earlier this week that Pence would give up his leadership post and prepare for a run for Governor or Senate. Of course if he had a chance at Speaker he might change his mind.
    [ Parent ]
    There have been rumors of him running for PRESIDENT......in 2012. Seriously. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Well...
    I certainly hadn't heard of Obama heading into the 2006 elections so why not?
    [ Parent ]
    Because Pence is just a Congresman, not a Senator, and...
    ...that's a huge difference.  You never see a House member get any serious traction running for President.  But yes they do it, so Pence might.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Yes and we never used to elect Senators to Prez either
    But here we are.  I think the rules for house members could change.  I don't think Pence is the guy to chaneg them, but I won't write him off.

    I think the only thing hurting the GOP is too many viable candidates to be honest.  For a party not known for diversity, all of their little factions have an ideal choice amongst WAY too many chances.

    [ Parent ]
    Major parties have always NOMINATED Senators for President, but not Congressmen......
    I wasn't referring to Pence's chance of beating Obama, I was referring to his chances of winning the Republican nomination.  And those chances are slim.

    Yes there was a long drought of Senators failing to get elected President, but there has never been a drought of Senators winning major party nominations.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    George HW Bush in 80 perhaps?
    Then again, he had been out of the House for 9 years by then and had held a litany of other government positions. And he still lost to Reagan comfortably. I think the last member of the House to be elected President was sometime in the 1800's, so Pence would not have history on his side.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    He rose up through his subsequent service......
    Bush 41 built a strong resume after his time in the House that helped him establish some stature.  I think CIA Director and other things mattered as much as being a former Congressman.  If he were just a sitting or former Congressman, he wouldn't have been such a major player in 1980.

    I would count him as an exception to the rule if he didn't have all those other things on his resume before 1980.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    There's also the fact that
    Pence is, according to Matt Yglesias, who has had conversations with him, an outright idiot. As in, just plain stupid.

    I realize Yglesias is a liberal, but he's not really a bomb thrower like Brad DeLong is and he's viewed admirably by a decent number of people on the right, so if he says that, I doubt it's a comment made lightly.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I am with Yglesias...
    Pence seems even worse than Cantor and that is saying a whole hell of a lot.  Ryan looks like he is about 12 years old.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    Pence comes off as a complete idiot
    Listening to him talk makes me want to smack myself. He sounds like an automaton spitting out "tax relief" and "small government." Nothing but platitudes delivered with a completely vacant expression.  
    [ Parent ]
    See Palin, Sarah <nt>

    [ Parent ]
    Pence
    would make a great Speaker for you guys. He has political skill and would not be as easy to attack as Boehner, who I think we can easily do what you guys did to Pelosi. Also he is more tea party friendly than Boehner but would not come off as nutty to the public. Pence has skill but I think this will be his last term unless he gets Majority Leader or Speaker. I don't think he would stay for Whip even. He'll either run for Senate, Governor or hell maybe even a long shot Presidential run.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    True ...plus Pence isn't orange
    If the House goes GOP by a modest margin Boehner is probably safe a Speaker, but if the 60-70 or more seat pickup happens, then he is vulnerable to a challenge from the right.  
    [ Parent ]
    We
    make fun of Boehner a lot but his tan really does hurt his public image I think. It would be easy to make the case that he is cozy with lobbyists and spends more time on the golf course than working and his tan does not really help him in these regards. I really do think we can do to Boehner what the right did to Pelosi. His approvals already suck and he is a really easy target.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Also...
    why do so many male politicians wear hair rugs?  It looks fake and so vain...not appealing to any woman that I know...of course, I am not attracted to anyone in congress.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    I wish Pence had won in 2006. I think what he will do is run for President, struggle to raise money (he will raise a few million, but not enough for a pres run) and will want to drop out, but Skillman may have already picked up all the support for a Gov run and his house race would be packed by then. Then, Lugar will announce his retirement, Pence will drop out the pres race, and run for Senate and scare away any serious opposition with his money.  
    [ Parent ]
    They haven't even won power and already
    they're backstabbing their speaker to be?  Unlike Democrats, who only backstab their speaker after they get into power.
    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    Perhaps this should be part of each's offical platform.
    [ Parent ]
    Heath Schuler has more chance of being Speaker than Bachmann
    I'd suspect some Republicans would defect or cast protest votes instead of voting her into the speaker's chair. Having Bachmann as the face of their House caucus is political suicide.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    Hmmmm
    Well we shall see.  I wouldn't deride Schuler jsut yet (I mean we're losign the house, but who knows who will be viable when Dems get it back).

    But Bachmann would at least be funny for a short time.  Eventually she'd be annoying on the newsshows each Sunday but I think she could be held in check.

    Just imagine her fundraising numbers as speaker though...WOW!

    [ Parent ]
    no
    That's about as likely as Alan Grayson (were he to win, which appears unlikely now) being the new Dem leader, and for the same reason.

    41, Ind, CA-05
    [ Parent ]
    I feel like I am watching...
    a slow moving hurricane coming toward me but I cannot do anything about it.  As I said before, this is surreal.  Yes, I remember 1994 and the federal government shutdown because Newt did not get peanut M&M's on Air Force One.  

    But I venture to say that this group is even worse than Newt and his group were back then (Newt has redifined himself for the times it seems). This group seem like anarchist. I have never seen people get elected with no plan but to stop the other guy.  WOW!

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    Actually the leadership of that post-1994 Congress was much worse than today, but...
    ...the rank-and-file of that Congress' GOP House Caucus were as a whole much less crazy than their leadership.  There were still a lot of centtrist and center-left Republicans back then; they were a dying breed already, yes, but there were still a lot more of them than there are today.

    Boehner and Cantor, as much as I dislike them, are much more disciplined and much more cookie-cutter in their conservatism than were Newt et al.  But they're going to have a caucus that on the whole is much more ideologically demanding and temperamental than leadership.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    NY-Gov: At a rally, Paladino refers to Gillibrand as Schumer's "little girl"
    WTF is wrong with this guy?
    http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    What is it about Gillibrand
    that makes so many male politicians bring out the creep factor? I remember someone else (Reid?) talking about how hot she was, which seemed to make her uncomfortable.

    24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
    [ Parent ]
    It was Reid, and it's not quite the same thing.....
    Reid was inappropriately and wrongly repeating in public what everyone says in private.  But it was ultimately a compliment, and in a different and not-inappropriate setting it would be taken as such, I'm sure including by her.

    The irony was that I had said the exact same thing, that Gillibrand is hot, on this site exactly 2 days earlier, spawning one of the many recent discussions of hot Senators and House members.  So when Reid said it, I sure wasn't going to post criticism of him.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I actually have a soft spot in my heart for Carl Palladino.
    He's been providing lots of comic relief during this cycle. I can only imagine his response if he loses by a massive margin on the order of 30 or more points. I hope he stares straight into the camera and says awful things about Cuomo, Gillibrand, and Schumer, and then says, "Hey, New York? Yeah, you! FUCK YOU! That's right, FUCK YOU!" before walking off the stage.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    WI-Sen: Feingold out with new ad


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    He needed to defend the actions of this Congress
    Voters aren't voting against Feingold. They're voting against Obama. I think Russ approached this entire election the wrong way. He's not a conservative like Manchin, so the "independent" line isn't going to work this year. He, more than anyone else, had to full out run on Obama and hope for the best

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
    [ Parent ]
    I see
    I see he's been raiding Lamar!'s wardrobe.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Speaking of Lamar, he went to stump for ODonnell in DE!!!!
    I understand he is in leadership and this is part of that role......but good gosh why waste political capital and tarnish your fairly moderate image by campaigning for a lost cause whose views are probably perceived as extreme even by most Tennesseans standards!!  

    Democrat: TN-8
    [ Parent ]
    I guess
    I guess because DE is easy to reach and O'Donnell won't win, so no one will care that he stumped for her and it's a way to shore up his right flank so he won't face a primary challenge from his right.  Lamar! isn't going to run for Prez ever again and I have a hard time seeing a Dem beat him in TN, so his biggest danger would seem to be a untraconservative challenge.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Given the right candidate and the right cycle...
    Rep. Davis might be able to knock him off if Sen. Alexander is perceived as being too far right and Democrats are having a good year.

    Then again, nobody is going to be talking about Christine O'Donnell when Alexander is up next, so it's probably a safe bet. Media has been playing up Alexander's role in leadership, even though he's normally a fairly low-profile player (surprising for a former presidential candidate), so I think it's probably a gesture of goodwill toward the Tea Party so the national Republican Party doesn't get blamed when O'Donnell loses by double digits.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    this
    Tennessee may be the only southern state left where a (relatively) moderate Republican can win a statewide primary. I suspect this may be because the eastern part of the state has always been Republican (it supported the Union during the Civil War) so its party establishment still has a lot of old-school Republicans as opposed to just the converted Dixiecrats you have in most of the other southern states.  

    41, Ind, CA-05
    [ Parent ]
    This kills my suspsicion
    That he is retiring in 2014. Trying to avoid being tea bagged.  
    [ Parent ]
    As I said...
    I think it's an appearance on behalf of the Republican Senate leadership rather than an attempt to bolster his own conservative credentials.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Well, in 1994, it seemed that the key to winning a race...
    ...was wearing a flannel shirt.  Every Gooper wore a flannel shirt and they won handily.  I guess Russ is taking a hint.
    [ Parent ]
    Toomey 50-46
    Up grabs then
    This one really comes down to turnout operations.
    [ Parent ]
    And they are in full swing
    Cross your fingers.
    [ Parent ]
    Believable, since it's consistent with the totality of polling......
    I think Sestak falls just short.  I say 52-48.

    In a neutral year, I'd say he pulls it out.

    But a wave is a wave for a reason, that the close ones mostly fall one way.

    The close one I think we're most likely to get is CO-Sen, based on Bennet having pulled into an actual tie or even lead in at least as many polls as showing him still trailing.  Bennet's surge has got him closer to the cusp of victory than Sestak is, and Buck keeps causing problems for himself in a way Toomey doesn't.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I'll do my final calls Monday
    But at the moment I think both will be heartbreakingly close defeats.
    [ Parent ]
    2006
    FWIW, Casey outperformed the final RCP averarage by about 7 points.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

    [ Parent ]
    Toomey has run a very competent campaign
    Especially for the environment.  GOP must be loving it.
    [ Parent ]
    They would be loving it more
    If he had already put it away.
    [ Parent ]
    Pretty hard for teh GOP to do in PA
    In a competitive race.  Not many GOP landslides in PA statewide in competitive races, especially with these 2 candidates and this environment.  Was always going to be close.
    [ Parent ]
    If Razzy's Only Up 4.....
    ....then this one is still probably within reach, provided a huge Philly turnout materializes.
    [ Parent ]
    RI-01: Cicilline only up 2?
    Man, that's really rough. Is the cycle really that bad that Democrats have trouble winning in Rhode Island? Anyone know the scoop on this pollster, 10-Quest Research?

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
    Well
    The Gov numbers they released as part of the same poll seem to match what others are seeing.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    They do have Robitialle doing better
    Only poll to have him in second. At least for now.
    [ Parent ]
    Another poll
    Has him tied with Caprio (in third)
    [ Parent ]
    Dems should hold this seat
    Patrick Kennedy only won it by 8 his first time out.  Should be about the same margin this time.
    [ Parent ]
    I think it will be less...
    Probably seeing some conservative Catholic voters squirm a bit at the prospect of voting for an openly gay man against a guy who looks, sounds, and has a name like a turn-of-the-century Irish priest.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    I think it will be narrow
    but I still think Cicilline is favored. Quest isn't that great of a pollster (no RI pollster is, which is why it's frustrating that PPP doesn't poll RI). I doubt the conservative Catholic thing would be a big deal, he was elected mayor twice with 80% of the vote which probably (a bit too jittery right now to actually look it up) means he won blue-collar white ethnic areas like Elmhurst and Federal Hill. It doesn't hurt that he has a blatantly Italian last name, either. Remember, lots of Catholics in RI are "cafeteria Catholics," and in fact many of the most ardently pro-life Catholics I went to HS with would have shouted down anyone who talked badly about gay people. (of course, this is anecdotal evidence and refers to young people, but the point is that RI Catholics are not as conservative as you might think.)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Minor correction: he won with MORE than 80%
    also, remember this is the more Democratic of the two RI districts and in addition to about half of Providence also contains major Democratic strongholds like Pawtucket, Central Falls, and East Providence. Thankfully for us, Loughlin's state house district is one of the most Republican parts of the district to begin with and doesn't give him that big of an advantage.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    OH-Sen 12: Rep. Jim Jordan planning challenge to Brown?
    http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...
    I would have thought he is a little conservative for the state...
    That'd be a hell of a race


    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    I
    didn't know who he was at first, had to look him up. He really doesn't seem like anything special. A fresh face I suppose but he seemed pretty generic R to me.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Jordan is VERY conservative
    One of the most swingy states in the nation hosting a statewide race between a strongly conservative Republican and one of the Senate's liberal standard-bearer? I don't like the idea of losing Sherrod Brown, but that'd be fun to watch.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    I Would Have Thought Rob Portman....
    ....was too conservative for the state.  All bets are off at this point.
    [ Parent ]
    I
    think you guys should go with Jeanne Schmitt. No but in all seriousness I seem to remember hearing that DeWine is thinking of a run, which makes sense why he ran for AG this year. Or the LG under Kasich, (I don't know her name).    

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Mary Taylor
    She would be good. She is young and was the only Republican elected statewide in 2006. She is currently the state Auditor, but is a terrible fundraiser. The end of the article also says state Treasurer and SoS candidates Josh Mandel and John Husted are considering runs. Mandel would be a great get. He is an amazing fundraiser and campaigner. He is young (33) and an Iraq war vet. He is my personal fav for the senate race. I love Mary Taylor, but she would be crushed in the $$ race by Brown.  
    [ Parent ]
    Kasich is too conservative for the state...
    ...and yet, he's on the possible cusp of victory.  No one that far right has ever won the statehouse.

    Rove's operation should purchase the seat for whomever wants it.  We've seen how citizen united has bought congress this year.

    [ Parent ]
    Interesting
    My pick would be Mike Turner, but they could do a lot worse than Jordan. Plus, that's not an open seat the GOP needs to worry about (Turner's could be if Obama is running well in Ohio.)

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Thats the reason I don't want Tiberi
    Tiberi would be a very good candidate for this race. With Brown being so liberal, Tiberi could get a lot of crossover support and raise a lot of money, but that would be a bad open seat. Plus, Brown already has $1.4 million on hand. Turner has less than 200k. Jordan has 800k.
    [ Parent ]
    Nevada early voting
    now with graphs!

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Trends in Clark County seem to fit exactly with what atdleft has been saying about voting sites helping the GOP early in the week and helping the Dems later in the week.

    24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

    Oh, no question atdleft was correct about mobile voting sites making THE difference......
    atdleft is vindicated on that one.

    But that's not good enough, he still needs to vindicate himself on the outcome itself!  :-)

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    The Dems are catching the GOP in Washoe County.
    That is Angle's stronghold. Excellent news.
    [ Parent ]
    I think the best news could be
    today's vote in Clark. (Not to jinx us.) It seems that Dems are voting stronger every day this week, and everyone who wants to vote early but hasn't yet done so will need to do it today. Plus, per resident local expert atdleft, the mobile stations have shifted to more Dem-favorable locations.

    I'm optimistic we'll exceed our 3,400 voting margin from yesterday.

    [ Parent ]
    Me too. I have become over-invested in this race.
    I want Reid to win so badly I can taste it.  
    [ Parent ]
    I get overly emontionally invested in the whole damn thing
    I need a whole month off at least!
    [ Parent ]
    Chicago-Mayor: Chicago Coalition passes on Meeks, narrows to Braun, Rogers
    Rubio up 17 in Mason-Dixon
    Gives
    credibility to their gubernatorial numbers.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe
    This Republican thinks Sink might well win, but I have my doubts.  Republicans have (or at least had, as of yesterday) a 15 percent lead in early voting.  The Mason-Dixon poll uses an R+1 sample.  It was 38D-36R in 2006 and it was 37D-34R in 2008...but in 2004 the exit polls showed 41R-37D in self ID.

    We won't know until Tuesday for sure but I would guess that the numbers ultimately look more like 2004 than '06 or '08.

    Scott isn't my favorite candidate - I would have much rather seen McCollum - but if I had to bet I'd put five dollars on Scott over Sink.

    [ Parent ]
    Republicans always dominate early voting in Florida.....
    Early voting patterns vary widely from state to state, but Florida is one where Republicans are much stronger than Democrats, and Democrats make up the difference--whatever amount CAN be made up depending on the race--on election day.

    And early voting patterns don't follow the states' partisan leanings, either.  California is deep blue, and yet Republicans always dominate early voting there.  An early sign of how bad California was for Republicans in 2008 was that Republicans were only running even with Democrats in early voting, when they usually dominated.  That was a bad omen for the GOP, when an uninformed eye might make one think the opposite.

    I don't doubt Florida Republicans very likely will have some turnout advantage this time, but it won't be what early voting suggests.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Changes to the way results
    Will be reported Tueday.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

    Or even "Tuesday"
    "Starting Tuesday night, the results of statewide races will be reported by giving the percentage of "expected vote." The votes reported at the state level at any given time will be divided by the estimate of the total votes that will be cast in the state to come up with the percentage of expected votes."

    [ Parent ]
    so if i'm reading right...
    We're still going to get a "percentage" of vote in, but now it's going to be calibrated to how many total votes they expect, rather than how many precincts are left.  The only problem would be if they are off in their estimates of how many votes they'd expect, though their equation probably self-adjusts as results come in...
    [ Parent ]
    Seems like this year...
    you could have run a well-financed, mangy dog as long as it was a Republican, it would win.  Like I said, this has got to be the weirdest campaign season ever.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    In 2006 and 2008 almost the same
    was true about Democrats. Pendulum swung back, to 2005 level
    [ Parent ]
    Not true...
    ...no Dem candidate could get away with the garbage that these right wingers have as baggage... in any year!
    [ Parent ]
    That's garbage from YOUR point of view
    And "highest wisdom" - from your opponent's point of view. Everything depends on point of view...
    [ Parent ]
    Faux: R +13 in the generic
    Trying to get Dick Morris' 100 seats huh?
    Ridiculous!
    [ Parent ]
    CO-Gov
    Rasmussen: Hick 47, Tancredo 42, Maes 5

    Pretty close to PPP's last poll.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Crist advisor says Charlie would caucus with Dems
    A bit too late, methinks.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/...

    He simply couldn't caucus with Republicans after such "divorce"...

    [ Parent ]
    Well, he could always caucus with himself ; )
    Maybe he could get Joe and Ben to join him.
    [ Parent ]
    He'll have plenty of time to play with himself after the election... n/t

    [ Parent ]
    LOL

    [ Parent ]
    You may need Joe and Ben dearly - especially
    if Democrats end with 50 or 51 seats in Senate. Or, otherwise, refresh your memory with details of filibuster rules))))
    [ Parent ]
    Filibuster
    Filibuster doesn't depend on who is in the majority.  Democrats could be in the majority and still need to use the filibuster because the likes of Joe and Ben joining forces with the Republicans.  A majority in the senate is nowhere near as important as it is in the house.
    [ Parent ]
    Yup
    Dems narrowly but successfuly filibustered a gun control amendment this Congress if memory serves.
    [ Parent ]
    But in minority
    with rather cohesive Republican caucus Democrats will need to use filibuster much more frequently. So - my argument still stands. And it seems now that numbers 50 or 51 are very realistic-looking...
    [ Parent ]
    Koch
    I think you answered your own question.

    Be nice if someone did an investigation of this.  The money, his ability to flood the zone, his connection to Faux and the rest of the right wing echo chamber, and his super loaded issue questions.

    Sounds like a possible blowout in NH-Sen...
    Tom Jensen tweeting, "Kelly Ayotte's net favorability is up 35 points from the weekend before the primary! That's one heck of a bump."

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    MO 4: Skelton up 7
    MOE +/- 7.8%
    http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

    Not saying the poll is wrong but they only interviewed 159 people and the MOE is a whopping 7.8%  

    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

    [ Parent ]
    Uh...
    Look on Page 6.  Something is wrong with the order of their numbers.  Hartzler is winning democrats and Skelton is winning Republicans?
    [ Parent ]
    Junk poll alert!
    Hope it's true, but the poll is about as likely to be right as I am by guessing Rep. Skelton wins by a point and a half.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    CT-4 and CT-5 polls done for CT Drudge site
    Himes down by 2, Murphy down by 1.

    http://www.registercitizen.com...

    Beat me!
    n/t

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    This was Chris Shays's and Nancy Johnson's districts.  But they're ones which like their incumbents, as it took several cycles for Democrats to knock them off.  Can't see them tossing Murphy and Himes out so soon, at least Murphy.
    [ Parent ]
    Final part of that MRG/CT Capitol Report polling batch
    CT-04: Debicella 48, Himes 46
    CT-05:  Caliguri 47, Murphy 46

    This is from the same set of polls that found Blumental up by 8, Malloy and Foley tied, and the Democrats in the other three seats up by 20 or so points each. Seems a little R-friendly overall, but it shows that these races are still close.

    Also, unrelated CT note: I just realized that Dan Malloy's first name is not Daniel, but Dannel. Unique, eh?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    Movement to Murphy since their last poll!
    Which incidentally he came straight out with an internal that had him up double digits. Both Dems win narrowly IMO.
    [ Parent ]
    Obama's rallying
    in Bridgeport with Himes tomorrow. I assume statewide candidates will be there, too. The key to victory for Himes will be the AA vote in cities like Bridgeport. I think he'll get it.

    Murphy does show movement in this poll. The pollster, too, seems to lean Republican by at least a few points, based on their other statewide polling. We'll see...

    [ Parent ]
    I think so, too
    I'm guessing Malloy wins by 4-5%, Rep. Murphy wins by 3%, and Rep. Himes wins by 2%.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    GA-02: Keown internals have him up 4
    Apply whatever internal test you like. His lead is 50-46, up from 47-45 in a poll from the same firm (Landmark) last week.

    Link: http://landmarkcommunications....

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    70 seats is really looking more and more likely
    That would put Republicans at a 249-186 majority, a majority size that they havent had since before the Great Depression.  
    [ Parent ]
    What?
    That's not a Keown internal. Where'd you get that from?
    [ Parent ]
    I found the link on Real Clear Politics
    It identified it as a Republican poll, so I assumed (perhaps wrongly?) that it was commissioned by Keown or the NRCC. I hadn't heard of Landmark Polling before this.

    What are you seeing on the ground in GA-02?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Landmark is more favorable to Republicans
    than a Republican internal.  It's a pro-Republican PR firm.
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    I know who Landmark is and they are overwhelmingly Republican leaning, but that doesn't make it a Keown internal.

    They've been polling GA-02, GA-08, and a few other offices in the state a lot recently.

    Keown's using POS for his internals, hence my question.

    [ Parent ]
    Just to Repeat Myself...
    Can I just say?
    Save me from the circular firing squads...Sometimes, I swear that I hate being a Democrat for that reason.  When they lose, Republicans blame the electorate and run to the right. The media does not tell them to moderate at all.  
    When Democrats don't win, we blame each other.  Obama didn't save us...Nancy was too mean...Harry was too timid...We were too Liberal...We were not Liberal enough...

    I am telling you people that it is just not cute. STOP. IT. I mean really.  I am depressed as anyone but I am not going to blame any other Democrat for it.

    We lost before and we came back.  We can do it again.    


    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    We have NEVER lost this big
    and in a redistricting election since 1920.  1920.  That is 90 years!!
    [ Parent ]
    In case you didn't realize,
    the election is next Tuesday.
    [ Parent ]
    Have the results come in?

    [ Parent ]
    Yes...somehow Sarah Palin was elected president
    And it wasn't even a presidential election.  Historic!!!
    [ Parent ]
    That was highly inconsiderate of you
    There was an appeal for civility, and you stomped all over it.
    [ Parent ]
    True,
    but sometimes it helps to check the profile of the poster before getting too upset. There is one person on this thread who signed up just today and has been talking down both Obama and Democratic prospects. On web forums like these, I think it's best to distrust motives before someone establishes him or herself.

    Having said that, are you going to Philly this weekend? I signed up for GOTV calling for CT-Gov Sat/Sun, so I'll be making good on my end of the deal! :)

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, I am definitely...
    keeping up my end of the bargin.  I might even run into the President at Temple ;-)

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    Excellent!
    I had the choice of going to see the president in Bridgeport tomorrow or doing GOTV. Bridgeport is a bit of a hike, and while it would be fun to go to the rally, I think phone-banking would be a more effective use of my time, especially as the governor's race seems to be tightening somewhat.
    [ Parent ]
    Sounds like a great idea...
    I wish that I could do the 3-day trip that also goes to OH so that I could help out Strickland as well.  But I really cannot take the extra time off work since I am going to Montego Bay on Nov. 4.


    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    Really
    I thought "that individual" was being very subtle LOL.  Always love the Johnny-come-lately's.  That "individual" is worse than the other horrible "sky is falling you'll see I'm right about everything I'll be vindicated blah blah blah" poster we already have.
    [ Parent ]
    It's hard to be a first-time poster
    With the abundance of trolls/spammers and the like, anything a new person says can seem suspicious. Many people I suspected of trolling at first ended up  becoming very constructive members of this site. I waited several days after registering to comment because I was waiting for an issue that I could speak about with credibility so that no one would accuse me of trolling.

    But yes, I agree with you and the above commenters on today's new user.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    However, after 10 posts or so in one thread all with a certain "viewpoint/agenda", its pretty clear it isn't an innocent mistake and lack of understanding of what the site is about.  
    [ Parent ]
    I suspect it is the same guy
    From earlier in the week. Saying the exact same things. Troll.
    [ Parent ]
    yes
    And our mods have been VERY clear that they are policing the boards, so I don't think it's necessary for anyone to "call them out".  David and James are on the case!  When I see clear doom-and-gloomers (or clear Pollyannas) with no evidence or substanitive rationale, I just let them be and ignore the post.
    [ Parent ]
    Well, I got chided by a moderator just today for questioning a commenter's motives......
    And the commenter in question was not too different in the substance of his regular comments from the individual you're referencing, so consider that FWIW.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    I was surprised to be honest
    I haven't heard from a mod on here in a while and seen some crazy convo's that we weren't part of that were let go.  Oh well, i have said individual on my mental "ignore user" list.
    [ Parent ]
    I see that Dave is no more
    They are keeping busy don't you worry.
    [ Parent ]
    While it would be tempting to start a pool
    with respect to how long.... it would be in poor taste, and would suggest little faith in the moderators.

    If the problem continues, they'll get around to it fairly soon.

    [ Parent ]
    I know, I know...
    But when I see it dispiriting other members, it's hard not to acknowledge. And I tried to be as diplomatic as possible. You should have seen my first draft. ;-)
    [ Parent ]
    They are easy to spot
    Because the say the same things in the same way over and over again. This guy is obviously Dave6750. Thn there is Anka and all his incarnations whining about Melancon and Ellsworth abandoning the House.
    [ Parent ]
    My youth is showing here
    Who is Anka? I've seen many passing references to him, but he must be from before I started reading SSP.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Doom and gloom troll
    Nothing special. Now, JSmith on the other hand, that guy was fun...

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    I was here for the tail end of the JSmith era
    Also tim thomasen. The two of them clogged up every thread last winter.

    Since then, there haven't really been any persistent annoyances. It seems like it's mostly one-day trolls and spammers who get sent on their way quickly--no one established like JSmith.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I bet he loved that Boucher poll!
    Anka has several names. I believe the first was Sean. Tim also has many an alter ego but he isn't a troll.
    [ Parent ]
    I didn't mean to call Tim a troll
    It just seemed like he clogged up a lot of thread with derails, often involving JSmith as well. JSmith was the only trollish one though.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    If I remember right
    that user annoyed the heck out of me, by suggesting that Ted Kennedy screwed Ds -- during the days after his death.
    [ Parent ]
    Pretty sure tim thomasen has come back several times
    I think the incarnation that lasted the longest was Daylin Bradley-Byak.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    sebby123 you are 100% correct in your every word in that comment......
    I, too, am frustrated by the circular firing squad.  It really is self-defeating.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Exactly...
    we need a pep talk not a put down...Ugggghhh

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    Thank you
    I really appreciate this, even though I am still really depressed right now.

    I'm trying to condition my brain to expect a loss in EVERY seat that's not uncontested, so if AP starts calling, say, NY-08 for us, it's reason to celebrate. I doubt I can trick my brain like that, but it's the only way I know how to cope.

    Election Night starts for me at 7 AM on Wednesday. Just hope I can sleep tonight.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

    [ Parent ]
    MI-07
    I don't know why you even bothered posting that MI-07 poll.  It's so ridiculous as to be offensive, as if they purposefully tacked the wrong name to the wrong number.  No one in the entire state believes it.
    New OR Gov poll by SURVEY USA puts Kitzhaber up by 7
    An interesting disclosure, in their cell phone calling SUSA found Kithaboer up by 15 points on their cell calls and only 4 points on their landline calls. Even more telling, Kitzhaber led by 11 among those who had already voted.

    The same poll found Wyden over Huffman 57 to 32.

    The poll was commissioned by KATU and relased at 4 pm Friday.

    SSP Daily Digests: 10/29 (Morning Edition) | 412 comments

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