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FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Sink Up In Two Polls, Crist Gains Ground

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 4:56 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (10/18-24, likely voters, 10/6-10 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 45 (44)
Rick Scott (R): 41 (45)
Undecided: 11 (9)

Kendrick Meek (D): 15 (22)
Marco Rubio (R): 42 (44)
Charlie Crist (I): 35 (30)
Undecided: 7 (4)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Quinnipiac's latest Florida poll is their most optimistic one for Alex Sink in a while; they've been one of the more bearish pollsters in Florida for the last few months, and this is their first poll with a Sink lead since August. While this boost might just be chalked up to float within the margin of error, if nothing else it shows that "debategate" (in which Sink got a text message during her debate) didn't seem to affect the dynamics of the race one way or the other.

Even more interesting is that Charlie Crist seems to be busting a late move in the Senate race, although it's probably still too far out of reach for him to pull it out, given the weirdness of the three-way race and the split among left-of-center votes. His five-point gain pulls him within 7 of Marco Rubio. Crist's gain comes at Meek's loss (down 7 since the last poll), so there might be some last-minute consolidation by Dem-leaning voters deciding that Crist is the best way to avoid the specter of Rubio. (Crist now gets 51% of Dems, while Meek gets 36% of them. Indies go 43% for Crist, 38% for Rubio, and 9% for Meek.)

Mason-Dixon (10/25-27, likely voters, 10/4-6 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 46 (44)
Rick Scott (R): 43 (40)
Undecided: 7 (-)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Mason-Dixon provides some confirmation today of Quinnipiac's numbers with a poll taken slightly more recently, although they don't see movement at all over the last few weeks (Sink led by 4, now by 3). Most interestingly, they find Scott's unfavorables getting much worse: he's now at 30/52, compared with Sink's 49/44. It would be pretty remarkable to see anyone win with those kind of favorables, and a Scott win would obviously have a lot to do with the national climate. If there's any doubt this is the nation's closest major governor's race, check out the trendlines from Pollster.com.
Crisitunity :: FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Sink Up In Two Polls, Crist Gains Ground
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FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Sink Up In Two Polls, Crist Gains Ground | 123 comments
Stay in, Kendrick
We need the base voters that you'll bring out to help Alex, and the several FL House Ds currently in danger. It'll pay dividends in redistricting, and I hope that you can be rewarded appropriately for your efforts.
A lot of people
cannot look at the bigger picture. Sink winning is far more important than Crist winning.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
there isn't any indication he could win
if it were a 2 person race.  the last poll had crist and rubio tied at 46, but in a republican year, i think the scale would tilt towards rubio.  furthermore, even if crist won, we still don't have proof he'd be a dem.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Exactly!
That's why Meek for whatever is faults stayed in. Unlike some other people I believe he will help with Democratic turnout.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Can I just point this out.
Black candidates do not equal increased black turnout. Obama is the exception to the rule. This senate seat would be winnable but unfortably Meek can't let his ego go and he honestly believes he can win this race contrary to every public poll taken (and I assume some private polls since Meek hasn't produced anything to say otherwise). In short he should get out Sink won't get any boost from it if anything people will feel like the republicans have the senate seat locked up and will feel less inclined to vote.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
From the Politico link below
"Not being seen as a quitter was more important than stopping someone who was so opposed to what you and your party had stood for," said one Democrat who had been hoping to close the deal.  
[ Parent ]
Did I say "black"
anywhere in my comment. There are Democrats whom do not like nor trust Charlie Crist.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
At this point Meek is nader
The only reason Meek is still in this race is that Dem insiders are to afraid to show Meek the reality that he can't win out of fear of depressing African American turnout and pissing off Meek and its bogus. The guy knows he can't win yet he is gonna stick around and hand the seat to Rubio. I suspect the majority of African Americans and democrats in general will support Crist but a substantial amount of the liberal block will vote for Meek in the blind hope that he can somehow win a race that all public polling has him down in 3rd place by a signifigant amount. Ugh the only good news out of this is he likely won't be around to run another crummy campaign.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
So three House seats are worth one senate seat?
I don't live in Florida, so I wouldn't have to live with Scott as Governor, but I'd rather fight for the Senate seat than play it safe and hope to hang on and eek out a win with Sink.  

Rubio's term will keep him in office for the lentgh of the Obama Administration.  

In 2012 the Dems have 23 Senate seats up to 10.  The odds are good that they Dems will lose the Senate in 2012 if they only have 52 coming out on 2010.  Every seat held/won now matters incredibly.  

 

[ Parent ]
Your assuming way to much.
We don't know what the climate will be like in 2012 and we don't know if Crist could have even won the race. It's to late for Crist to win. We have a chance with Sink and that out ways the Senate seat. As you may know Florida has been gerrymandered to hell in the past.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I'm Gonna Disagree With You On That.....
The trouble Marco Rubio could bring us as a national political celebrity and GOP Presidential/Vice-Presidential candidate alot more than Alex Sink could help us in redistricting battles.
[ Parent ]
I really don't think we
should get ahead of ourselves.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
That's the counterargument
Even though I come down the other way.  It's a good argument.  Problem is that it's unclear whether Meek dropping out will propel Crist to victory.  A far more compelling argument can be made that Meek dropping out could cost Sink the race.  Also, we're not talking about Linc Chafee here.  Crist is a conservative, and has given no indication that he will caucus with the Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Oh I Definitely Agree That Meek Shouldn't Drop Out.....
....but at the same time I think the outcome of the Florida Senate race will be more consequential than the gubernatorial race.  At this point I've come to terms with the prospect of a Senator Marco Rubio, but I still see a Sink victory as little more than a consolation prize after losing the main event.
[ Parent ]
Oh, please.
I remember how Mark Kennedy in Minnesota was supposed to be the next big thing. Granted, he lost his Senate race by 20 points, and Rubio is all but certain to win, but let's give him a chance to flex his muscles before we make him into The Democratic Political Exterminator. If nothing else, if he's even half as egotistical as the usual politician, he's going to try to rise as quickly as possible, and those who have been in national Republican politics aren't going to simply move out of the way for Rubio. If he's smart, he'll try to become an ally of one of these individuals, but even if he's smart, his ego could get in the way.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Exactly...
People keep placing him on a throne for some reason. It takes more than just good looks and charisma to be successful national politician (e.g. John Edwards). The modern national political campaign is a battlefield laced with all sorts of landmines.  

People in your own party will shank you (e.g. what Rove did to Palin the other day).

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
How many base voters will he bring out?
When he's 20 points behind second place?  And don't play the AA card, because that's insulting as hell.  

It's too late for him to drop out though considering the early voting, but I hope I never hear his name running for office again.  

[ Parent ]
Hard to say for sure
But there are hard core Ds who won't vote unless there's Ds atop the ticket. (I don't know the FL rules for ballot placement, whether Sen comes before Gov, or visa versa, but AFAIK generally, it's federal elections first.)

And such hard core voters don't care whether or not the candidate can win. But given the motivation, they do turn out, and I'd venture to say are much more likely to vote a straight D ticket.

What's your issue with Meek running for office again? It's not like he's Artur Davis.

[ Parent ]
Meek should stay in
but he should concentrate his resources on attacking Rubio instead of Crist. I understand that his dropping out could hurt Sink and the rest of the Dems, but he should stop playing like he can actually win the Senate race and start doing what he can to help the rest of the ticket instead of nuking Crist.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Florida governor cant veto redistricting legislation
http://rosereport.org/20100222...

The only point of having Sink is so that she can be on the national ticket.  And that's only if Hillary doesnt run in 2016 anyway.  Id much rather have Crist than Sink.

[ Parent ]
The Gov can't veto
state redistricting. He/She (she) can veto congressional redsitricting, which in the long ran is worth a lot.
[ Parent ]
That's what I've been led to believe
If not, Meek might as well drop out.  If so, and he drops out, Sink will lose, and several House seats will go the Republicans that they wouldn't have otherwise.
[ Parent ]
From 2001

The Governor has veto power over the congressional plan but not the state legislative district plan; that plan is adopted by joint resolution of the legislature.

http://archive.fairvote.org/re...

I assume this hasn't changed.

[ Parent ]
I still don't see the redistricing argument
The state is already heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans. If Scott wins, there's really not much more they can do--Orlando is maxed out and the gerrymander has already cracked by letting Kosmas, Grayson, and Klein win. They would settle for protecting their incumbents (esp. Adams, Webster, and West if they win) and probably would have to draw a swing seat as the 26th.

If Sink wins, the GOP will still control the legislature, so there will be a compromise map. But that will just be incumbent protection, and they'll be protecting a delegation that's heavily Republican. Maybe Sink will demand that the new 26th be Democratic, but that's about it. To undo the GOP gerrymander of the state, Democrats would need complete control of redistricting.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
No
If it's only Democrats gaining two seats rather than the Republicans gaining two seats, that's a four seat switch.  That ain't peanuts in a relatively closely divided house.

It's important.

[ Parent ]
What makes you think Meeks 20% is going to make a difference
in any of those races. As a Florida I can tell you Meek has run a pathetic campaign that almost got sacked by a crook billionare an ID that is possibly most unappealing ID for a democratic candidate to have in a democratic primary.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
correction 15%
It's like saying Dan Maes will make the difference in CO-03 or CO-04.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Q is pre-debate
M-D is post-debate. Compare...

Quinnipiac have Sink up 45-41 with positive favorables, 43-39. Scott is viewed unfavorably by 34-50.
Mason-Dixon have Sink up 46-43 with positive favorables, 44-39. Scott is viewed negatively 30-52.

Considering the debate and the fallout from it straddles the two polls I'd call this a good sign.

Now that you raise that, I want to talk about Rasmussen favorables......
I've talked several times in comments about PPP's habit of showing almost everyone with upside down favorables, and my skepticism that the electorate is THAT hostile toward EVERYONE, even if PPP's horse race numbers are good.

Well Rasmussen's habit is blatantly partisan, giving Republicans higher favorables and Democrats worse favorables than everyone else.

Rasmussen's FL-Gov poll released today had Scott at 48-50, and Sink at 47-50.  Rasmussen's previous poll 10 days earlier had Scott at 44-48, Sink at 45-50.  Scott's unfavorables are in the ballpark of other polls, but his favorables are higher; Sink's favorables are in the ballpark of other polls, but her unfavorables are higher.  And Rasmussen's upside down favorables for some Democrats make no sense at all intuitively AND contradict other contemporaneous polls in the same races.

So that's my rant on favorables in Rasmussen polls.  And it's yet one more thing I'll be looking for in exit polls.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Any poll in a state
with a good track record of early voting this near election day is bunk. Rubio will win because of Meek's arrogance and I frankly think Scott's negatives is more beneficial to Sink than Meek staying in the Senate race.

Meek has no future career in FL Democratic politics and will sonn after become a lobbyist.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Politico: Meek nearly dropped out...
... with Bill Clinton's urging. Supposedly, it got so far that they were discussing a Clinton-Meek-Crist endorsement rally this past a Tuesday (10/26).

> http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Yeah just saw that
His wife talked him out of it. She thinks he can win. Seriously.
[ Parent ]
He won't be elected dog catcher...
once folks see what Rubio has in store for them.  Yeah, don't quit Kendrick, you'll get 15% of the vote, finish a distant third by over 20 points.  

Maybe Senator Rubio will hire him to do crowd control for him or something to repay him for playing spoiler for him.    

[ Parent ]
Not sure I see this helping the congressman...
I expect there to be a bit of backlash, as in, "You did WHAT?"

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I wonder who leaked this,
and if the intention was to give Crist one last (outside) shot at taking the race.
[ Parent ]
I think it's more a giant FU to Meek.
Ending his political career.
[ Parent ]
But if it's a Democratic operative
with any brains, they wouldn't do that at this point if it could damage D prospects through Tuesday. In fact, I'm not sure why they'd even do it now unless there was something to be GAINED before the election.
[ Parent ]
Maybe they saw the Dem flight from Meek in the Q
Poll and so tried to move things along a little further.
[ Parent ]
That's what I'm thinking...
Though that would run against what many here (including me) have taken as an article of faith: that Dems need a strong showing for Meek to get Sink over the hump. Maybe Scott's unfavorables are so high that Dems are now more confident about that race on its own?
[ Parent ]
I don't think Dems see any down ticket....
fall out if Meek would have withdrawn.  Similarly I don't think they see him helping out Sink now much either.  

They leaked this now because they know folks wouldn't be paying attention to this kind of stuff after the election.  

Also maybe they're trying to knock some more votes to Crist, I don't know.  

In reality when Meek was polling at 22% I figured only half would go to Crist and the other 11% would probably not vote even if Meek dropped out and endorsed Crist.  

So if Meek is at 15% now and they can knock off 2-3% more I think that is basically where he would have been and where Crist would have been anyways.  

This just makes Meek look incredibly selfish.  

[ Parent ]
Possible reason
to try to siphon more votes from Meek to Crist without actually having Meek drop out.
[ Parent ]
I think Dems having a chance...
to stick it to the GOP by beating Rubio would rally out the vote more than turning out to vote for distant third place Meek, meaning it would have helped Sink.  

Now to mention there would have been good synergy of Dems, indies and moderate GOP's (ie those scared of Scott) that could have come together to bring Sink an Crist across the line.  

Crist and Sink have worked together, could have endorsed each other as both putting Fla first. Sink has been running as more of an executive than a partisan.  

I like this plan^^
I also agree with the idea that it will help Dem turnout to be voting for a winner, and not just against somebody (ie-Scott)...it would probably do this among black and white Dems alike. And frankly, in Florida, we need both. Huge AA turnout (btw, when has Meek ever shown he can really actually increase AA turnout?)

I know a lot of white political analysts are all like: "Hey, nominate a black guy and black people will turn out!" Since, you know, it happened with Obama that one time.  But, um, why would African-Americans turn out to support a black guy who is going to lose badly, like, 3rd place badly? Part of Obama's appeal was that he could win.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I know a lot of you are only thinking national...
But having Alex Sink not only means a guaranteed compromise US Congress map (Not St legislature unfortunately).

Electing her over Scott will be huge for legislation in this state. We were VERY lucky Crist became an independent when he did. The Republican legislature passed an education bill that would have eliminated tenure for teachers, basing their job security on the standardized testing scores of students (theres a lot of problems with that and I could explain my reasoning but that is not for this site.) Crist vetoed this bill, thus the teachers unions endorsed him (the bill was also very unpopular among the majority in the state)

Scott has also proposed enacting an Arizona-style immigration bill in FL. This would hurt the already suffering strawberry and orange farmers. Though I don't think the bill would pass because of the Cuban influence in the Republican caucus, I wouldn't put it past them.

Scott also would pass the abortion bill Crist vetoed the week he became an independent. The bill would have required women to have an ultrasound before they perform the abortion, and I believe also require a talk with a psychiatrist. (Not going to argue about my feelings and reasons for being against this either)

Not to mention Scott has proposed cutting state jobs, and wants to reinstate the ban on gay adoption that was recently lifted (I'm sure GOP AG candidate Pam Bondi would enjoy helping him.) Theres a lot of other initiatives I could list that Republicans are salivating at being able to pass with Scott as governor.

I hope some of you can also see why a lot of Dems are voting Crist. For me, it was a thank you for vetoing the education bill, pushing for offshore drilling constitutional ban, supporting gay adoption, veto of abortion bill and not cutting state jobs. Many of my Dem and Ind friends feel the same, and we're glad he governed from the middle.

So yes, Sink being elected means A LOT for the future of this state, not just national politics. Scott = irreversable policy disaster for Florida.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

Pam Bondi
Pam Bondi seems likely to win, sorry to say.  It's her record on dog adoption that cost her my vote.
But I think this whole thing trying to get Meek to drop out has been horribly handled.  By letting the cat out of the bag now, you have a real risk of suppressing black turnout.  Why isn't Clinton up in Maine trying to get the democrat to drop out there?  I'm a Rubio supporter, but I respect Meek.  I don't respect Crist.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Most black people I know
Are wanting to vote for Crist but feel like they identify more with Meek (these are older black citizens.) Most I talked to did end up voting Crist.

I think Meek endorsing Crist and Crist endorsing Sink would fire up Dems in FL, and get us out to finally vote in what remains of early voting. Everyone I talked to is just hoping that Meek will endorse Crist this weekend by some miracle.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
Amen. Especially on Maine
In Maine, Mitchell has 24% vs. 28 and 40% for Cutler and LePage respectively, according to PPP.  Dropout Mitchell.  How did she get the nomination in the first place?  Must have been a multi-multi-candidate field.  

Given the early voting in FL, the Meek situation is too little too late at this point.  Rubio has this one.

I don't respect Crist either.    

[ Parent ]
With Sink in office
there's some chance that Florida deals with its disgusting lifetime ex-felon disenfranchisement problem productively.  It'll just remain a travesty under Scott.

Ex-felon disenfranchisement is the big residual civil rights problem that the CRA and VRA didn't deal with.  Obama promised to do something in that area but it's yet another thing Washington Democrats didn't bother with the past two years.  

Because several million disenfranchised people isn't that important, evidently.

[ Parent ]
If only Scott had a vested interest in ex-felon enfranchisement!
Sadly, he was never prosecuted for his role in defrauding the government because he invoked the Fifth Amendment 75 times to avoid incriminating himself under oath at his deposition. If he had been, he might consider himself a bit more of a kindred spirit.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Crist is a liar
I don't mind people changing positions and bucking the party line more than other people, but just a few months ago he was trying to make the case that he was more conservative than Rubio!

He acts like he's constantly been pro-choice, against tort reform, against major Social Security changes, against capital punishment, etc.  The man insults pro-choice people by saying "I'm personally against abortion so that makes me pro-life, but I'm against appealing Roe versus Wade."  He is making pro-choice people sound like they are pro-abortion.

There is no one in the United States Congress who is pro-abortion, but if you take that pro-life, yet support Roe logic, you are saying that the other side must be pro-death.

Charlie Crist is a liar, not a man who changes positions as facts change, the man is a liar and he deserves to lose.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

I Couldn't Trust Him......
But if I lived in Florida and saw any path at all to defeating Rubio I'd hold my nose and vote Crist.....because of the future headaches Rubio will give our team.
[ Parent ]
People seem to be giving Rubio a...
lot of power and he has not spent one day on the national stage. Remember, he is replacing another Cuban Republican Senator.  How is it automatic that he is some superstar?

Rgubio is an unknown at this point. He could prove to be a dud.  Those Kleig lights could take him down. He is just one of 100.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
His Youth and Charisma.....
....so far make him appear as far more of an impressive figure than Mel Martinez.  But you're right....maybe he won't live up to expectations.  I'd rather not take that chance though.  Seems like someone with star power to me.
[ Parent ]
exactly
martinez was NEVER popular here
[ Parent ]
Rubio is the next Reagan ...
The right loves him and with good reason. He has youth, charisma, a good story and is a good speaker. He is from a large swing state and he is a minority. He is mainstream enough for the 'establishment' yet loved by the Tea Party.  

Martinez was so lousy, he didn't even complete his only term.  He barely won in a GOP year in a (then) Red state.  

Rubio is destined for the 2012 or 2016 ticket (top or bottom) and Martinez is headed for oblivion or K street.  No comparison.  

[ Parent ]
That's a foolishly premature assumption. See my comment below......
These days it seems EVERYONE is the next Reagan, the next Obama, or a hybrid.  Rubio, Martinez, Sandoval, Haley.

All you have to be is a woman and/or a person of color.

But it's absurdly premature to make these assumptions.  They have to prove they live up to the hype AFTER they're elected.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Cyclone, I have to say..
I think you are one of the most astute posters on here, but you are really missing the big picture here.

Martinez: Please.

Sandoval:  I have seen absolutely NOTHING written about him having the potential to be on the national stage in the future.  

Haley: I live in SC, and I can tell you that while she MIGHT be on a 2012 or 2016 ticket(as a pacifier for Palin lovers), she is NOT anywhere NEAR having Rubio's heft or potential.  Not even close.  She is an articulate empty pantsuit.  Trust me.  She might win on Tuesday, but so did Mark Sanford-twice, so that means little.  

In addition to all the numerous things I listed above, Rubio is a GIANT killer, not just a giant killer but a giant RINO killer. If you don't think Teabaggers love that, you don't know teabaggers.  If he was not suficiently 'establishment', he would never have been elected by his peers to be Speaker of the FL House.  In other words, he ain't no Sharron Angle/Ken Buck/Rand Paul loon.  He has some cred with BOTH sides of the GOP divide. That is going to be in high demand in 2012 after the coming 'war' breaks out starting Wednesday.

Also, he has Jeb's support unless Jeb himself runs. It can't hurt that the only living GOP Presidents back you.  

It isn't likely that he would bomb a la Bobby-Jindal-State-of-the-Union speech, given his speaking ability and charisma.

Unless there is a serious skeleton in his closet that isn't out yet, I don't see what his downfall would be.  

Sure he could have a fall, but if you had to put money on anyone being somewhere on the GOP ticket in the next two cycles,  Rubio would hands down be the safest bet.      

I saw long ago, when Crist was up 30 points on Rubio, that he could be where he is now, on the verge of winning this Senate seat.

After one speech(2004), Chris Matthews declared Obama would be the first black President.  Some people simply have "it" and in my judgement, Rubio has "it".    

[ Parent ]
I have to agree
I would never vote for him, and I don't know if he could win nationwide, but we're going to be talking about Marco Rubio for a while.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Was Crist a giant?
He's never been all that popular with FL Republicans. Even in 2006 there were qualms about him, but his only primary opposition was very baggage-laden. All it really took was a competent, very far right candidate to displace him in the primary. I think a lot of conservatives were ready and waiting to dump Crist. It's like calling Christine O'Donnell a giant-killer.
[ Parent ]
Your individual points are fair but still don't add up to something to justify the hype......
I don't equate Rubio with Angle/Paul/et al.  I agree he is no teabagger.  I agree he is a very conservative establishment Republican, I've said that myself here at times.

But regarding being a "Giant Killer," I agree with JimB's reply comment that calling Crist a "giant" itself is overstated.  Crist is a one-term Governor who was never liked by conservatives.

And Rubio is polished enough.

But if he wasn't Hispanic, if he was just another white male, no one would be saying he has anymore stature than so many Senators and Governors who are respected but not made out to be superstars.

That Rubio is going to win in the 40s, and not break 50, undermines a suggestion that he strongly captures people's imagination.  He captures conservative imaginations, but that's the easy part.

In sum Rubio has not established himself as having the stature of Obama.  Remember Obama was the Democrat who won Indiana, which no Democratic Presidential nominee should ever be able to win.  Obama was the Democrat who won Virginia, North Carolina, and part of Nebraska, and fell just shy in Montana.  That shows the reach of his appeal, that's what a political star looks like.

Rubio hasn't established that yet, it's premature to say he will.

And regarding those other figures, I agree with you on Haley and Martinez and so on, but the fact is there a ton of chatter among wingnuts to elevate these people to a national ticket.  So while you might not elevate them, wingnuts already want to, which is my point.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
My last words on the subject, at least in this thread
First, Crist was a VERY popular INCUMBENT Republican that had great numbers from GOPers,DEMs and IND alike. Other than Rubio, he drew no other opponent in the primary. No Democrat with a statewide presence, or with regional appeal even seriously considered the race.  When Crist announced, everyone was ready to concede the seat to him.

Rubio was at single digits when he started. He so pummelled Crist that Crist even abandoned his PARTY. A sitting governor with high approval ratings abandons his party. has that EVER happened before?  

Sounds like a giant killer to me. I agree that breaking 50% will help Rubio significantly, and I think he could actually do so. But even if he doesn't, in a 3-way race in an evenly divided state, getting 45% wouldn't hurt him much.

Rubio isn't the news item he was 6 months back but that is only because the nutcases like O'Donnell and Angle are taking the MSM oxygen.  They are no match for Rubio in terms of a future on the national stage.

     

[ Parent ]
Hardly
Dude is having serious trouble with independents in this race. He has no noticeable appeal to non-conservatives (non-Cuban Latinos included ... they're not that hung up on ethnicity anyway and Anglos always assume all Latinos are the same. They're not. Mexican-American don't especially feel a connection to a Cuban-American, or vice-versa. And ditto Latin Americans, Puerto Ricans, and you name it.)

Reagan's magic was his appeal to otherwise reliable blue collar Democrats, and (at that time) conservative Democratic southerners. The latter group is already solid Republican, and I don't think Rubio has it going with the former so much.

[ Parent ]
Good point, it's worth remembering he's going to finish below 50%, perhaps WELL below it......
We can't assume he won't find himself in a pitched-fork battle for reelection in 2016.

If there's something we should all learn from the current and previous 5 elections is that things change in a goddamn hurry!  Today's champ is tomorrow's chump, and that's happened many times over.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
sorta reminds me of "Kenneth"....
aka the well educated non-white R Gov of another southern state...
[ Parent ]
I guess I missed the part where he signed a long term contract
with Warner Bros. and later became Governor of California.  
[ Parent ]
I think the GOP has moved past Reagan
I have heard less and less Reagan memorializing and deifying over the last few years. I think the GOP now wants someone who is more blatantly in-your-face and never, ever considers working with the Democrats. A happy happy ad like Morning in America would be hooted off the screen by the Tea Partiers.

As for Martinez, I really do remember when he was getting as much hype as Rubio. He also defeated a candidate who was seen as too moderate (McCollum) and the talk was that he was going to help President Bush win Florida. All that talk began to fizzle when his campaign choked and he barely won, and seemed classless in his campaign against Betty Castor.

Rubio is someone else who seemed to have less and less hype as the year went along. He will win bigger than Martinez, but he also came across as clumsy and very lucky.

The problem with the GOP's darlings is that they can never actually be what they are expected to be, not in the Senate anyway. His supporters are expecting him to go and make brilliant speeches and tear Democrats apart and ban homosexuality and ban abortion and give them 0% taxes for the rest of their lives.  

[ Parent ]
Are you kidding, they bring up Reagan all the time!......
Palin just brought up Reagan in some speech within the last few days.

Reagan still comes up routinely.

They're not past it at all.

But you're right that what they want now is in fact very different from what Reagan really was.  Problem is, so many wingnuts have selective recall, they remember the stuff they liked and bury what they didn't, pretending it never happened.  They like to remember his massive defense build-up and his joke caught on mic about bombing the Soviets and that he was anti-abortion and very publicly allied himself with the Christian right and that he was a supply-sider who cut taxes.  They remember just that stuff, and they bury that he raised social security taxes and later raised income taxes and agreed to "amnesty" for 8 million undocumented aliens and signed the START treaty that wasn't fundamentally different from the new treaty Obama got signed that so many wingnuts oppose today.

In sum, these wingnuts still revere Reagan and are searching for him but remember him wrongly as the same kind of teabagger they want in the White House now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's kind of amusing
that someone says for us not to next ahead of ourselves, and then a few spots below it, someone calls him the next Reagan.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Bingo. I made this very point in that GOP '12 running mates subthread......
All these soon-to-be-elected nonwhite statewide officials are projected for stardom within the GOP based on naked assumptions.

But one or more could be complete busts, with low job approvals a year or two from now.

And several or all could be OK, in fact just fine by normal standards, but not live up to the excessive hype.

The raw assumption that one of them will rise to national ticket stardom has folly written all over it.  It's the same folly as Palin, who was just ASSUMED to be a rising star during her first year as Governor.  Now she is the polar opposite, exposed as an extreme crackpot who no one likes.  And indeed they then repeated the folly with Michael Steele, again someone ASSUMED to be a good choice but has proven to be the worst possible baffoon.

The real problem Republicans have is they're desperate to offer the next Obama, the next futuristic breakthrough Prez or VP in the form of a minority or woman.  Democrats electing the first black President has thrown them for a loop and into a panicked frenzy.  And they're making anxious and panicked bad choices as a result.

Republicans would do themselves a favor by cooling their heels on any 2012 talk for these people, or any 2016 talk for anyone.  They're not even elected yet, they need to prove themselves as popular elected leaders before they can be legitimately talked of as anything more.

All this stems from Obama having been a hyped superstar who managed to get elected President before anyone thought possible.  But that's not something anyone should TRY to replicate, he just fell into our lap as a political figure of a lifetime.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You're absolutely right
I don't think rabid partisans care about accomplishments however, it is all about how you look for the camera.  Sarah Palin is a perfect example and I'm not sure Obama did a whole lot in the U.S. Senate before he ran for President.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

[ Parent ]
i live in fl-24(kosmas)
i have done a great deal of gotv and i can tell you there are folks holding off on voting early to see what meek does(not sure if crist can close the gap the whole way though); in the kosmas race(even though the district was created BY tom feeney, FOR tom feeney)the democrats are fully behind kosmas(which will help alex sink a great deal)but it is just such an extremely hard district for any democrat(however, the republican sandy adams has made some gaffes, not sure if they will change many votes though)
Meek
I haven't read through this thread, but I need to get something off my chest.

I am livid about this idea that somehow Meek doesn't deserve to stay in the race.  Putting strategic politicking aside, let's make one thing clear: Meek WON his primary; he played by the rules; he earned and deserves his party's nomination.  If anyone deserves to be asked to step down it is Crist, who lost his primary.

Strategically, sure, it'd be nice if Meek had gotten out, but I will not begrudge the man for staying in.  I'd like to see Murkowski and Crist win if it means keeping out the tea party, but I also feel that neither of them deserves their prominence in their respective races.

That's nice
Unfortunately, play by the nice rules and you get clobbered.

Although I will "agree" with you on one thing: I think if Meek dropped out Crist would still lose. He's only got 15%, some of which is already in, some of which will vote for him anyway even if he stops campaigning, and the rest isn't enough to catch Rubio.

[ Parent ]
Agree, he earned his keep, and he has voters who want a DEMOCRAT on the ballot. People are full of themselves to complain...
...about his "staying" in the race.

It's fine to be practical and strategic in voting decisions in this kind of situation, but there are plenty of good reasons why a LOT of Democrats want Meek and refuse to vote for Crist.  Crist is, in fact, an untrustworthy whore.  That's just true.  He is sincerely an even-tempered non-ideological guy, but he's made important decisions rarely on principle, more often on electoral calculation.  He is not a 2nd Democrat in the race, he is just pretending to be for personal gain.  And that's fine as long as the incentives remain for him to side with us more often than with the GOP, but circumstances and his resulting calculus can change in a heartbeat.

If I were a Florida voter, I'd take the gamble and likely vote for Crist.  But it completely makes sense that there are lots of people who won't.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
If Rubio
had crashed and burned during 2009 and Crist was the GOP Senate nominee, Crist would have signed the abortion bill and the teacher tenure bill.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
EXACTLY. And a lot of Meek voters are well-aware of that, which is why...
...they will never vote for Crist.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Same here
I'd probably vote strategically in this race, myself.  And, I also want to folks to know I TOTALLY understand and respect Meek for staying in the race, and I don't begrudge a single voter that chooses the actual Democrat in this race.  

Meek shouldn't have to be asked to pay because the Republicans couldn't get their shit in order, and he sure as hell shouldn't be the focus of anyone's misguided contempt and anger.  If anyone wants to be angry, they should direct it at Crist for failing to outmanuever Rubio, and/or the Florida electorate for being so GD irrational.

[ Parent ]
Spot on, I have been trying to say this as well. n/t


Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
PPP numbers for WI are out
I'm too depressed to post them.  Russ can ponder whether he should have accepted DSCC money on November 3rd, he'll have plenty of time.

Urgh.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

On the upshot...
He won't be threatening to join any more GOP filibusters from the extreme left.

There are Democrats I would miss more.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
heh
Feingold doesn't deserve to be in the Senate, but Johnson doesn't deserve to be within 500 yards of a camera or a microphone anywhere. What an absolute embarrassment he is. I'm glad I don't live in WI so I would have to put up with having that uberschmuck as my senator for 6 years.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
He most
Feingold most certainly does belong in the Senate.  Love him or hate him (and I do both simultaneously), he's one of the best, most capable, people in that whole, damned dysfunctional body.
[ Parent ]
You're right
Don't pay attention to them.
[ Parent ]
I doubt it would've mattered
Johnson has led in polls for months now, and some big leads. While I do wonder if some of his horrible comments on things like victims of sexual abuse are known to the public, I think a lot of people in Wisconsin are just ready for a change, and Russ has never been a big popular figure in the state.

If that money helps keep razor-edge seats in other states, then he probably did us a favor.

[ Parent ]
Just
a general observation Alvin Greene may end up getting more votes that Kendrick Meek. Wouldn't that be something?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I kinda doubt that
At 20% of the vote, Meek probably earns a million votes. At 25%, Greene earns about 250,000. So, yeah...it ain't happening. I'm confident of that. In fact, a total of one million people (probably around 1.3M) may vote in the South Carolina election. So, Greene would need upwards of 85-90% of the vote, and, even if Democrats made up 100% of the vote, he'd still probably fall short. Hell, if only black, self-described liberal Democrats voted, he wouldn't reach 85-90%.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Well
I meant percentage wise.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Who's governor in FL is important. Why?
Two words and a number: Jeb Bush 2000
'Cuz, after all, Charlie Crist at a 70% approval helped John McCain oh-so-much
I know what you mean in terms of redistricting, though - it is very important. But, I think Obama face a steep climb in Florida in '12, Rick Scott or no Rick Scott.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Obama faces a steep climb, period...
The fact that we are getting so killed in the midwest is beyond disturbing... it makes no sense, but if it doesn't get righted soon, we lose the heart of the blue states and have zero chance of winning anything.
[ Parent ]
It is, and it isn't.
It just so happens that Democrats happen to control a lot of the seats in the Midwest, at both the state and federal level, and it's fairly easy for a Republican to use the idea that they haven't been running things to ride to victory. That doesn't explain everything, but basically, it's going to be one of the two parties, except in Minnesota, and if one is likely to lose, the other is likely to win. The Democrats were likely to lose for a few reasons, so the Republicans are likely to win.

Broadly speaking, it's that simple.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Obama is not running...
tomorrow or next week.  People forget that Republicans are not very popular. I heard that Brown was popular in Mass but that is because he has not really every done anything.

Once (of if) the Republicans get in the majority, people will start to remember what they hate about them. Their interests do not seem to align with anything other than seeing Obama fail.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
Actually, would McCain even have been nominated w/o Crist?
Was that the nexus when teabagging efforts started against him?
[ Parent ]
Tough to know
maybe Romney would have won the FL primary if Crist had not endorsed McCain.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Hard to say
That wasn't what set people off on Crist, though.  FL was between McCain and Romney at that point.  McCain was ahead by a nose, but Romney was making a move.  Crist's endorsement threw the momentum back to McCain and he also used his machinery to get votes for him as well.  It's not like he sabotaged Thompson (who was the conservative darling that election for reasons I'll NEVER understand) or even Huckabee.  The one who was most mad about it was Rudy G.

Had Crist stayed neutral, Romney might have won FL, but McCain was still in good shape for Super Tuesday because Rudy was done and McCain had the advantage in the big, winner-take-all states that Rudy had set up for himself in the northeast.  I'll never forget the joy of being at McCain's victory party that night - even if things didn't turn out the way I'd hoped in November.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Sometimes I wonder what if Sen. McCain hadn't changed
What if he had run as the same guy he was in 2000? What if he hadn't ran to the right, to the point where he started shit-talking his own legislation (McCain-Feingold and McCain-Kennedy) and backtracking on his moderate stances on torture and immigration? What if he hadn't picked a neophyte like then-Gov. Palin as his running mate and had instead opted for someone like Tom Ridge or then-Gov. Huntsman?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
McCain again would've won NH, but I suspect Huckabee would've taken SC
On Super Tuesday, you probably would've seen Romney instead win California, and Huckabee instead win Missouri and Oklahoma. McCain would've held his strong NE showing. Romney would've continued in the race, with Huckabee winning Virginia and Wisconsin and Romney winning Washington. Then, the March 4th primaries probably would've decided it all - with that run-down, McCain would've lost momentum and slipped to third, at least in terms of buzz. I think Romney would've won Ohio, Huckabee would win Texas, and McCain would take Rhode Island and Vermont. McCain would drop out, leaving Romney to win Pennsylvania and Indiana, and Huckabee winning North Carolina. In the end, I think Romney would've had the edge among delegates and won the nomination.

NOW...had McCain won the nomination as a "maverick" and selected a moderate, I think he would've held Indiana and North Carolina, possibly Florida too, and still lost everything else. He'd lose Ohio and Pennsylvania by 3 and 5 points, respectively.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
What ifs
I've played them.  The truth is, once the economy went to hell in the fall no GOP candidate was going to win.  There are things that McCain might have done that would have gained/lost him votes here and there, but after 8 years of a president of one party who was unpopular at the time; well, it's really hard to do.  The fact that he had a chance to pull it off in September says more about his strengths as a candidate than anything else.
Anyway, I left the McCain bumper sticker on my car and I'm quite proud of it.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Yeah, hard to say, though...
I wouldn't say the road to the White House goes through voters like me, but the trends point to my views becoming the mainstream, and certainly if a Republican is getting my support against a halfway decent Democrat, I have to think his or her national prospects are looking pretty good.

I might have voted for the 2000 A.D. version of Sen. McCain, had he selected a more moderate, less stupid running mate, but there was no way I was going for McCain/Palin circa 2008.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Who is/was the real McCain....
I appreciate that he was a war hero but McCain seems just like a bitter guy with a lot of grievances.  He has to hate everyone he runs against that seriously challenges him.  He sill hates Romney, Bush, Obama etc. His is so convinced of his own ethics...what a joke!  

I don't agree with D. Cheney but I do agree with him that McCain is whatever he needs to be to win.  How do you do a 180 on so many things otherwise?  Campaign Finance (he cannot raise money), Immigration Reform, etc.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
My hunch is yes
I suppose had Crist endorsed Giuliani, the moderate vote would've been divided-enough for Romney to run-up a necessary margin with conservatives, but I suspect Crist was over Giuliani even before Iowa. Per CNN exit polling, 42% of GOP primary voters thought the Crist endorsement was "important." Ideologically, Romney beat McCain by 8 among the 60% of voters who were self-described conservatives, while McCain beat Romney 2-to-1 among the other 40%.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
imagine for a second
crist endorses Guiliani, and he miraculously wins.  the hemorrhaging to mccain stops and G stays in through super tuesday.  He manages to win the northeast mid-atlantic corridor of NY, NJ, DE and CT, but completely fizzles outside of the region. Huckabee sweeps the south, winning MO and OK due to a weakened mccain and Guiliani who recieved around 6% in the region, mainly from mccain and romney.  after 2/5/08, mccain is 320 delegates weaker than he was in out timeline, but because it was split between G and huckabee no one is winning.  

they all stay in, but without any frontrunners.  romney sweep washington, huckabee LA and kansas.  Guiliani declares he will focus soley on PA as he did with florida to conserve resources and mccain moves to virginia maryland and DC.  his military cred and romney's splitting of the cultural conservatives gets mccain virginia, maryland and DC, giving him the big mo.

A week later romney wins in wisconsin.  they fight through to march fourth.  romney wins ohio, solidifying his midwestern strength, huckabee wins texas and mccain vermont and rhode island.  

calls abound for people to drop out, but they're all so close to one another.  no one fights for mississippi, because of huckabee and then everyone moves to penn.  a close four way race ends with a narrow Guiliani win.  Romney takes IN and huckabee wins NC.  Huck wins KY, mccain oregon.  Romney wins idaho then a week later mccain wins new mexico while romney wins south dakota.  no one has enough to claim the nomination.  they fight it out until the convention, where amongst the chaos, sarah palin is oddly nominated.  she overtakes obama by ten points.  two weeks later she struggles to get out of the thirties.

citing her inability to lead, mccain and guiliani start a third party to combat palin/romney.  obama wins 50 33 15 2

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Well
Well, that was interesting to follow!  I have more fun imagining John Edwards winning Iowa and gaining enough 'mo' to get the nomination.  And then the love child news comes out right after the convention...
Oddly, my guess is that he might well have picked Obama as his VP choice and if he had to drop out (Edwards) Obama might have wound up at the top of the ticket, anyway.  And given the meltdown in the fall, he might still have won.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
That proves my point
Crist ended up keeping the polls open late on election day 08 because of long lines, which incensed the right wing at the time and surely started him on the road to his current status. Sure, this probably didn't put Obama over the top but didn't hurt and he was certainly a big change from Bush purging 57k voters from the rolls and, you know, stealing the election.

The fact that he put McCain over the top in the primary and then ended up helping out Obama on election night just proves that the only party that Crist belongs to is the what's best for Charlie Crist party.  

[ Parent ]
proves my point
Crist ended up keeping the polls open late on election day 08 because of long lines, which incensed the right wing at the time and surely started him on the road to his current status. Sure, this probably didn't put Obama over the top but didn't hurt and he was certainly a big change from Bush purging 57k voters from the rolls and, you know, stealing the election.

The fact that helped McCain in the primary and then ended up helping out Obama on election night by not shutting things down just proves that the only party that Crist belongs to is the what's best for Charlie Crist party, of course.

[ Parent ]
FYI
(this was in response to andyroo, sorry, new user)

male, 45, left leaning independent, AZ-01 (FL-13 in 2008)

[ Parent ]
Oh big deal, it was a steep climb in 2008! People have short memories......
Florida was a SAFE McCain state for MOST of 2008.  Obama often was down double-digits in polling there, and any poll showing him as close as 5 points was an outlier.  Only very late did Florida tighten up and become competitive.  Floridians resisted Obama forever and a day, and only the last couple months came around.

To pretend now that 2012 is going to be soooooo hard for Obama is to really be buried in the present with no sense of how fast things change.  It could be real hard or it could be incredibly easy, we just don't know.  There would be nothing surprising about the economy improving enough for people to feel better, and getting through the next couple years without any other defining crisis, and then the GOP nominating someone unelectably polarizing or otherwise just a weak candidate.  That scenario is at least as likely as a difficult election against a strong GOP nominee.

True story:  Gallup Poll in January 1983:  Mondale 52, Reagan 40.  Seriously.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Exactly...
I blame the 24-hour news media on our very short attention span.  We believe that what happens today or on Nov. 2 is some "great realignment" of the country when what it really is happening is that midterm voters are always more conservative, rural, married and white.  Like I read David Brook's column today in the NYTimes...he acts as if Obama is on the ballot and the country is rejecting him.

No in case he did not check Obama's approval rating is higher than all of the Republican leaders in congress.  What a Joke!

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
I still stick to my view - Meek's campaign was doomed from the beginning.
Much better organized campaign of Harold Ford in much better year of 2006 (and under much more conservative slogans, BTW) in only slightly more difficult Tennessee was ultimately unsuccessfull, and he narrowly lost to Bob Corker. But, at least, he had real chance. Meeks from the beginning had no chances against either Rubio or Crist, led in no poll i can remeber, and so on. Well, he played a role of spoiler - usual role im such situation. If, as some say, his campaign will help Sink (especially if she wins: as i said many times - winning is the only thing that is of interest in any campaign for me, and i give an extremely little value to unwinnable campaigns) - thanks, God! If not - one more missed opportunity.
slightly more difficult?
obama won in FL, they have a dem senator and could have a dem governor.  florida is far more friendly than TN.  and his name is meek, no S.  not to be snippy about the last part, but i know some people here hate him being called that

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Slightly
Would Obama win Florida this year? No way! And Tennessee still has Democratic governor - so what??? Florida will not elect Black Senator or Governor next 10-15 years. After that - that may change, but not now, and, surely, not this year.

And Senator Nelson in both much more moderate then Meek, AND white....

[ Parent ]
They elected a black president
So your casting aspersions on Florida voters as so racist they couldn't possibly elect a black senator or governor for the next 10-15 years is not only offensive but ridiculous. If Florida voters have turned against Obama, it isn't because they suddenly became racists who will never vote for a black candidate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I'd just ignore him
He's over-racialized quite a few things in the last few days, to the point that it's become offensive and taken away whatever credibility he was trying to build, here.
[ Parent ]
Tried tu build credibility?
I never tried anything, because i don't have a need to. And will be glad if you ignore me. You are mad with your "politcal correctness", i - don't give a damn about it. If something increases somebody's chances - i will say so, if decreases - i will not hide that because it sounds offensive for somebody. Democrat, Republican, whatever... Anything we say is offensive for somebody...You already have a candidate, that doesn't fit a district in  AR-2, the result - almost obvious for all. Run more candidates that doesn't fit districts - and have good luck!
[ Parent ]
You can call me anyway you want
 - even reincarnation of John Eastland. I really don't care, and that namecalling doesn't bother me at all. I said what i wanted to say: they voted for Obama in 2008, but wouldn't vote for him Nov 2. 2010. As far as next 10-15 years  - well, i hope we all will live long enough to see who is correct. At least i sincerely want that for you))))
[ Parent ]
James Eastland, sorry for typo

[ Parent ]
Well
Meek was within striking distance of Rubio before Crist jumped ship. And Meek's chances would of only but gone up when we expected Crist and Rubio to nuke each other to kingdom come battling out for the mantle of the true conservative. Yes Rubio had a 40+ lead of Crist by that point, but Crist would of made sure Rubio's favorable ratings went to hell among moderates and independents. If anything Meek is the victim of all of this. He's the victim of this teabagging war that went on in Florida. Shame really he showed so much promise in the early months of 2009.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
He did?
I was rooting for him, but he never did anything to impress me, and I kept on waiting.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Excuse me, but Meeks NEVER impressed me.
And, IMHO, was never within striking distance. For me he always was a "spoiled child" of talented and respected mother. As much as i respected (and continue to do) her, as much he is a "lightweight" to me, who would be "nobody" if he wouldn't be her son...
[ Parent ]
Meek not Meeks nm


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Did Crist leak the Clinton attempt to get Meek to drop out?
http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

Instead of shutting up, Crist appears on television to ... fully confirm the story. He sends out a statement acknowledging the truth of the story while pretending to disdain the focus on process. Really, it looks like Crist was trying to force Meek out of the race by disclosing the didn't-get-done deal.

To me, that explains the reaction:

Meek seems  outraged. He's Bill Clinton's friend. He endorsed Hillary Clinton. As Meek pointed out in a press conference last night, Clinton has campaigned for him more than any other candidate. Meek calls the report "inaccurate at best," a weird formulation. (If it isn't true "at its best," then what can be at its worst?)

While it'd be nice to have that Senate seat, a Meek dropout now would certainly take some substantial number of base D voters with him -- especially under these circumstances.

If this story was leaked to push Meek, it's the height of stupidity......
It's too late to turn the election.  If they wanted to get Meek to drop out, it needed to happen a month ago.  Doing this now to try to force a last-minute drop out just divides the party and steps all over our Florida candidates' messages, with too little time to change the outcome of the Senate race, especially with plenty of voters already having voted or otherwise having committed firmly to a candidate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Tough
I've wavered back and forth on whether or not I thought Meek should drop out. I bought the "keeping Meek on the ballot will bring out black voters" view, but now I'm starting to think otherwise.

How well is Meek known by the electorate? Is he even known in his own Congressional district? He's been a perfect example of a "back bencher" in the House.

It's also hard to believe that these supposed "hardcore Democrats" will not turn out because Meek drops out. If they're so hardcore, they'd turn out for Sink either way.

Finally, why Meek and not Crist? Well, Crist isn't the one lagging behind in third place with barely breaking double digits. Crist actually has a chance.

Meek mentioned that Clinton endorsement quite a bit when it fist happened, but now that one of his main supporters doesn't even want him in the race, that should tell him something.

There was plenty of time for Meek to look at the polls, realize he had no shot, and drop out. Instead, he'd prefer to stay in, thereby helping Marco Rubio become the next Senator from FL.

FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Sink Up In Two Polls, Crist Gains Ground | 123 comments

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