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SSP Daily Digest: 10/28 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 4:08 PM EDT


• CO-Sen: In case there was any doubt about where Ken Buck is on abortion, new video has come out from June that he's not only against Roe v. Wade, but against the whole concept of a right of privacy (on the usual teabagger grounds that it wasn't explicitly laid out in the Constitution).

• PA-Sen: Although there will be a Barack Obama appearance in Philly proper this weekend, Bill Clinton is left with the task of headlining rallies around the rest of the state. Today Clinton appears on Joe Sestak's behalf in the Philly suburbs, in Bryn Mawr and Cheyney. Clinton also appears with Dan Onorato and John Callahan in Bethlehem today.

• WV-Sen: Good news for John Raese on two different fronts. The Palm Beach architecture commission approved his plans to replace a "giant dollhouse" in the yard of his Palm Beach mansion with a glass conservatory! (Just be sure to hide all the blunt objects when Colonel Mustard comes over for a visit.) Also, it turns out he's a +13 handicap, occasionally getting down into the high 70s, so he's definitely got some game on the links. (Unfortunately for Raese, the reason we know this is because somebody leaked his self-reported scorecards from the golf ladder at the Everglades Club, the all-white country club in Palm Beach about which he's stonewalled on inquiries on whether he's a member or not.)

• HI-Gov: Credit Mufi Hannemann for good sportsmanship. In response to evidence that his supporters from the primary (who tended to skew socially conservative) were tending to break toward Duke Aiona, Hannemann recently cut a TV ad urging his backers to vote for Neil Abercrombie. The ad's part of a $200K buy by Hawaii labor unions.

• AZ-03: It's sounding like that PPP poll that gave him a lead wasn't a total fluke. Whatever Jon Hulburd is seeing is enough to get him to open up his personal checkbook and hand his campaign another $250K for a final push. No specific numbers are available, but the article says that his internal polling sees him "within the margin of error." (That's not usually the phrasing of someone who's leading in his internals, but maybe he still can gut it out.)

• NC-11: A handful of Democrats in tough races have said that they'd rather vote for someone other than Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, but no one has actually stepped forward until now to volunteer himself as a receptacle for Blue Dog votes. Heath Shuler, previously declared as one of the "no" votes, said he'll do it if no one else will. There's not telling how this gambit would work out if the Dems keep the House, or if he'll be running for minority leader if not.

• Passages: Condolences to the friends and family of Owen Pickett, the former long-time Democratic Rep. from VA-02. Pickett, who was 80, served there from 1987 to 2001.

• SSP TV:
• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon's closing argument is an endorsement from her daughter, celebrexecutive (that should be a word, if it isn't) Stephanie
• LA-Sen: Assuming Charlie Melancon loses, still give him credit for using all the material at his disposal: his TV spot hits David Vitter as hard as possible, saying his taxpayer-paid salary paid for prostitutes and it's a "sin" he represents Louisiana at all
• WV-Sen: Credit to Joe Manchin, too, for not Coakleying this one up; once he found himself in an unexpected close race, he buckled down, found messages that worked, and hammered on them, as in his final ad
• FL-22: Ron Klein goes positive with his last spot, touting endorsements from a variety of citizen groups
• NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster's ad is a combo platter of hitting Charlie Bass on his Wall Street ways and going positive on her own job creation plans

• Rasmussen:
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 44%, Ken Buck (R) 48%
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 48%
• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 29%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 59%
• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 26%, Paul LePage (R) 40%, Eliot Cutler (I) 26%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 44%, John Kasich (R) 48%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%
(um, do you really want that to be your final answer on WA-Sen?)
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/28 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/28 (Afternoon Edition) | 364 comments
WV-Sen: Manchin Web Ads Uses Star Wars to make fun of Raese
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Raese is wrong.
We need, as of my last estimate, at least nine thousand lasers in space.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Ha, good one! ;)


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
According to Raese
that would cost exactly $180 billion ($20 billion for 1000 X 9).  Shame on you for encouraging that kind of wasteful government spending.

Raese is right.  We need 1,000 lasers.  999 would be too few.  1,001 would be too many.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Always love seeing a Democrat hitting back hard.


NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Re: NC-11
"A handful of Republicans in tough races have said that they'd rather vote for someone other than Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, but no one has actually stepped forward until now to volunteer himself as a receptacle for Blue Dog votes. Heath Shuler, previously declared as one of the "no" votes, said he'll do it if no one else will. There's not telling how this gambit would work out if the Dems keep the House, or if he'll be running for minority leader if not."

I agree with the sentiment, but, technically, those candidates and representatives are Democrats!

Hmmm
Freudian slip.
[ Parent ]
In fairness
I've heard more than a few Republicans won't vote for Nancy Pelosi either. ;)

27, Democratic, IL-01
[ Parent ]
That AZ-03 information is interesting.
I'd love to see us pick up an upset like that in Arizona of all places and kill off the career of Quayle's son.

I am curious how Buck's views on abortion play with CO-independents. CO has a lot of real liberatarians (not the fake liberatarians that are anti-choice, etc.). I wonder if that view is enough to push them to vote 3rd party or skip the Senate race.

IN-09: Todd Young is ahead...maybe?

Young's campaign isn't too pleased with the recent Penn poll showing Hill narrowly ahead, with his campaign now saying their internals show Young with a 12 point lead. I've not seen the actual poll, so I'm skeptical.

Jim Shella also is reporting today that the IN Dems are planning to send out mailers in the 9th, not on behalf of Hill, but instead in support of Libertarian candidate Greg Knott. It's worth a shot; splitting off one or two percent of the vote from Young to Knott could win this for Hill. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
I believe that's how he won
in 2006.  
[ Parent ]
Sounds highly implausible.
Considering every independent poll released showed Hill ahead. Considering there weren't that many, we will see.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
We've
only seen one independent poll and it was commissioned by a moron. It could be accurate, it might not be. My wondering is why would Young claim to be ahead so much if he wasn't? Does he truly think he has it locked up and doesn't care or is he stupid? IDK, we'll know Tuesday.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
We'll
know one way or the other Tuesday. He could be ahead and he absolutely could win. Though why he would claim to be ahead that much is stupid on his part, let his people think it's a dead heat. Saying he's up twelve is risking making his people think it's in the bag and not showing up or volunteering until the end. He could be up but he shouldn't have showed it.  We'll see.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
A 12-point lead in an internal
is pretty healthy. But it does contradict the Hill/Mark Penn poll pretty badly. This either testifies to (1) the horribleness of either of the two specific polls or (2) the schizophrenic nature of polling in general during this election cycle.
[ Parent ]
Well
he hasn't actually released the poll just hinted of it. Why do that though? What's the point? If I was him I would be saying yep it's a true tossup, could go either way even if I knew I was going to win comfortably. Saying the race is over is risking depressed turnout and less enthusiasm. Talk about lack of political skills. I bet Boxer's up a lot but she wants everyone to think she's not to help with turnout. Is Todd Young stupid?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Is that a rhetorical question??


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
sigh
The Kuster ad is bland and predictable. Klein must feel like he's made his point in driving up West's negatives and is going for the positive, and does so effectively. WV-SEN is bland, but more than anything it appears he's mouthing words that were later dubbed on separate audio and are slightly off the movement of his mouth, and most of all he's continuing to not run against the Republican narrative, he's just trying to run with it, and inoculate himself from criticism. He's effectively throwing his party and it's ideology under the bus rather than taking a more proactive stance and sticking up for it, and criticizing silly, shallow anti-Washington messages.

The Melancon ad is brutal. Truly brutal. Mudslingus is well-pleased.  

Brutal but
That Melancon ad is pretty brutal, but as someone pointed out in the YouTube comments, they spell the word "prostitute" incorrectly in the ad. Not even sure how many people will notice, and if anyone will care, but amateur stuff like that kinda takes a bit of the edge off.
[ Parent ]
Sadly
I didn't even notice that. And I'm usually a spelling nut. I was too busy wondering how the hell David Vitter still has a job....

So I'd call that an incredibly effective ad....which would make it just the latest in Melancon's series of effective ads. Seriously, whoever does Melancon's attack ads should get a political attack ad Emmy.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
manchin and the senate
manchin previously implied that he wouldn't support reid for senate, akin to dems saying they won't vote for pelosi.  this is fine in a body as large as the house, but i'm more skeptical about the senate.  does anyone think manchin will keep his word if the senate is 50/50 (after any possible party changes)?  furthermore, who would the alternatives be?  Schumer, Durbin?  I doubt either would sell well in WV.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
If the Senate is 50/50
He probably won't have to worry about Reid since any path to 9 seats for the GOP runs through Nevada (and probably WV as well, making this a moot point.)

I bet that if he has a vote cushion (in a 53-47 Senate or so), he'll cast a protest vote for someone like Mark Pryor.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Secret Ballot
I think all the Senate Leadership votes are by secret ballot in their caucus meetings.  They usually provide the final tallies (say 27 Reid, 25 Durbin for example) but Manchin could say he voted for or against whomever and no one outside that room would really know.
[ Parent ]
Durbin Would Seem Benign Enough.....
....for West Virginia.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe the line is in the sand this year for Raz...
He's either going to be very right or very wrong.  I do give him a couple of points for drawing attention to races earlier than maybe we'd have known (WI-Sen/Co-Gov/ND-AL).  If his goal really was to set a narrative (which I personally don't believe), he may have helped Democrats by giving them enough early warning to kick their campaigns up a notch.
ME-Gov: Is it time for Mitchell to throw in the towel?
She hasn't cracked 30% since day one has she? A Dem that can't do that in Maine ought to smell the coffee and get out.  

Better an Indie Governor than a teabagger nut like LePage.

If memory serves, she ran for Senate in the '80's and ran a lousy campaign then too.  I think she lost to Bill Cohen handily, IIRC.  

I say wait untill PPP looks at maine
but yeah, mitchell bowing out might be the best way to prevent lepage from being elected.  on another note, I found a mitchell for senate button at a flea market over the weekend and am wearing it ironically. I' hoping to convince enough time traveling mainiacs to vote for her, which would produce a new nominee in the current maine race.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
PPP poll out tonight
Around 7. Fav numbers: Cutler looks very good. Cutler at 46/33. Only candidate with positive numbers. LePage: 42/51, Mitchell 31/56. I think this race could be an early surprise Tuesday night
[ Parent ]
I wonder if that is the surprise then
Tweeted by Jensen earlier.
[ Parent ]
Right I see it was CT-Gov

[ Parent ]
Awww, dang it. Why can't the surprise ever be
a good one for the Dems? CT-Gov was supposed to be one of our few easy races.
[ Parent ]
Mitchell 31/56 ... Have Mercy
No wonder she can't crack 30%.

She makes Harry Reid look like Bobby Jindal by comparison.

Give me a break, she needs to take one for the team and tell her supporters to vote for Cutler.    

[ Parent ]
Why so bad?

[ Parent ]
a few things i've seen
one is that she's in a moderate dem leaning state and she's from the liberal base city of portland.  It's kind of like politicians in texas being branded as too liberal if they're from austin.  the other is that she isn't very good at campaigning.  

A third and this is just me, but at first glance, she seems unlikable.  she reminds me of a professor I had who was insistent that men and the patriarchal system were destroying the world and how everything would be peachykeen if women controlled everything.  Any time someone protested, they'd be wrung out and even given bad grades because of it.  I realize how unscientific and maybe even petty or sexist that sounded, but is it too much of a stretch that low info voters in maine would think the same way?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
1984 senate
She got 25% of the vote. Bill Cohen got almost all of the rest.
[ Parent ]
I second that
Less then 30% in numerous polls for Democratic candidate in Democratic-leaning Maine is pure and utter disgrace, no less. After all - it's Maine, not Utah, Wyoming or Oklahoma. Even extremely unpopular Baldacci got 38% in 2006. But Cutler's surge may be a week or two too late - it's only 4 days before election. Though if i would stand before voting booth in Maine right now - i would surely know, what i must do)))))
[ Parent ]
CT - Blumenthal up 8, Larson up 18, Courtney up 19, DeLauro up 22
http://www.scribd.com/doc/4035...

Note the 26-point gender gap w/ Blumenthal and McMahon.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I saw that in the sidebar
And thought "CT Capitol Report". Makes me feel better about Malloy.
[ Parent ]
Himes (CT-04) & Murphy (CT-05)?
Or don't these guys bother with the, uh, potentially CLOSE congressional race.  
[ Parent ]
That is bizarre. Maybe they are releasing those
later?
[ Parent ]
I like the Obama/Clinton approach in PA
I think the combination of Obama in Philly/Big Dog everywhere else is great for Sestak. Sort of like a one-two punch
Not just the big dog but
Rendell is starting to get out a little bit more. Doing 3 rallies with Trivedi on Friday and Sunday in PA-6 and probably going elsewhere in SEPA.  
[ Parent ]
most polls show rendell unpopular
is he sticking to dem areas?  otherwise it'd seem risky.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
PPP's surprise is CT-Gov
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/st...
Congrats to everyone who guessed CT Gov.  
Question for any CT folks around here...
Are there really that many voters poised to vote a Foley/Blumenthal ticket? I wonder to what extent McMahon can ride Foley's coattails.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Zero
Jensen said it is the governors race only.
[ Parent ]
I've been displaced from CT a bit
but my understanding is that people are so fed up with Linda McMahon's ads and she's taken the conventional GOP hide from the press strategy. Blumenthal's been our AG since before I was born...that guy's a Connecticut institution, and it's going to take A LOT more than the Vietnam War thing to derail him.

I honestly don't know that much about Tom Foley, but he's probably a less hard-edged, Fairfield County sort of Republican. Dan Malloy was mayor of Stamford, which is right next to the town I grew up in, and he seemed to do a fine enough job running the city. But he's also a less personable, urban machine sort of pol.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
He was the former ambasador to...
IRELAND!

Naturally, I love him.

[ Parent ]
Depends
Usually that would result in a lead but then most polls have shown that getting closer and the last PPP was Malloy up 10.
[ Parent ]
Well, shoot...
Then again, one day of robo-polling Connecticut on a weekday is probably going to give some wonky results, because a lot of people have a lengthy commute (sometimes out of state) and the polls might miss them.

Best to wait until the full results. Not going to be happy if Foley wins this one, though; he's by far the inferior candidate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
There was already a trend
Merriman +3 to EVEN
Rasmussen +4 to +3
Quinnipiac +7 to +5
FOX +4 to +3

Since the last PPP was +10 I'd probably say they'll find +2 or 3 but then again we often get burned reading between their lines.  

[ Parent ]
I don't care how much he wins by...
If PPP finds Foley suddenly in the lead, I will be devastated. Malloy is one of the best candidates running this cycle.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Just got home from voting!
For my local elections I voted for everyone who didnt have a townie last name.  And I drove around to see how many yard signs there were and I only saw city council ones.  Maybe the big storm that hit instinctively knew to take out only the Emmer and Bachmann ones?
You vote
For local elections separately in MN?  
[ Parent ]
nope
the subject should be read as it's own sentence
[ Parent ]
what's wrong w/townies?
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
long story short
The townies here are Michele Bachmann's base.
[ Parent ]
Are you in MN-6?
I am in MN-2 and work in MN-3 and you can't swing a cat without hitting about 4 Emmer signs.  
[ Parent ]
Yup, MN-6
and it's the uber conservative part of the district.  Maybe Emmer isnt bothering with that area since it's state house seat and it isnt where he's losing votes.
[ Parent ]
Could be. I just hope the polls are right
and he loses. He'd be a nightmare for our state.
[ Parent ]
I have a very good lifelong friend in MN-06, a liberal Democrat who e-mailed me today......
...that "Bachmann will win, all my neighbors are crazy, nice, but crazy."

I laughed out loud.  I don't doubt it's true, but it was just funny.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
OH-SEN - Lee Fisher flies the X-wing fighter into the
star destroyer.  Gives all his leftover money ($300K) to the state party to help other races.  Classy move, Lee.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Finally he does something right
Goodbye to a terrible campaign. I wish Jennifer Brunner had been a better fundraiser (and Fisher had stayed out altogether), as I think she'd have given Portman a run for his money (probably still lost, but it would've been much closer).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Hate to nitpick, but...
It was an A-wing.

Okay, I'm done.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
You know
I was thinking to myself when I wrote that, "Was it an X-wing or an A-wing?"  I just knew some Star Wars geek (meant with the highest of respect and admiration) would point it out if I were wrong.  But I was too lazy to verify.  You win this round, my friend...  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
And it was flown into the Star Destroy 'Executor', not the Death Star


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I got you here.
I said star destoyer.  Though I didn't know the name...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
NY-13: A bit of a juvenile stunt.
McMahon reserved 4 seats in the first row in front of the podium for his opponent's ex-wife and her family for the congressional debate.

http://www.silive.com/news/ind...  

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

Rep. McMahon is one of those guys...
I really wouldn't be upset to see him lose, provided it isn't the seat that delivers the House (doubt it). He just seems like a complete jerk.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I never would have thought that about him
Until this. He looks like a friendly guy (as friendly as you'll get for an NY pol I guess) but he really seems like an ass after this.  
[ Parent ]
That really is awful.
I never thought Mcmahon was that kind guy.
[ Parent ]
Ridiculous
This makes me feel better about
Kitzhaber being down in Ras yesterday.  Looks like Ras just juiced up the likely voter model in Oregon this week.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
My thought exactly

[ Parent ]
Putting it on crack more likely

[ Parent ]
Not
as crazy as his Hawaii numbers.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He never has Aiona up?

[ Parent ]
No
he had Cavasso at 40 and Inouye only at 53. That's insane.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
So he did

[ Parent ]
He had Inouye only up 13


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
i'm still waiting for VT-SEN from rassy
saying something like

Leahy 51

Briton 42.

In reality leahy's been above 60 and britton rarely above 30.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
He only has Cuomo up
51-37
[ Parent ]
Not forgetting
Coons up just 11. Only pollster to have O'Donnell breaking 40.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, right
Sen. Wyden is a beloved institution in Oregon with huge crossover support. And nobody knows a damn thing about Huffman, as far as I can tell.

11-point margin? Bullshit. Wyden will win by close to 20.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Whats so crazy about it?
Wyden still leads by 11.  
[ Parent ]
It's crazy because no one has it nearly that close......
All other polls of this race have Wyden up mid-teens to 20 points.  The 11-point spread is typical of Rasmussen this cycle, worst numbers for Dems even where they show Dems safe.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
mid teens
He's only 4 pts off from 15.  
[ Parent ]
Stop Ben in 2010
One Quayle was enough for America; stop Ben Quayle's career in politics before it starts. Out of state supporters can make calls for Jon Hulburd this Monday and Tuesday. Email stopben@hulburdforcongress.com for more details. Your support will make the difference!
Stop Spam

[ Parent ]
Your
doing your candidate more harm than good. We are a progressive blog and are behind Hulburd but no one cares for spam.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Hail Mary Version 2.0 in KY
Won't
work. Petty and desperate. Seriously low blow.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I don't have a problem with it
Unlike the buddha ad, it doesn't go after Paul private beliefs.  It's a desperation ad, but not a low blow.
[ Parent ]
Folks on dKos
seem to love it. It's on the Rec List. FWIW.

PS. I didn't even watch it. I'm taking a break from drama tonight.

[ Parent ]
Surprise, surprise.
My advice to any Dem candidate is that the Daily Kos fundraising ability isn't worth it.

They say Dems are being punished because they weren't progressive enough.  I guess the fact that Kucinich is now in danger is because he wasn't progressive enough.  Grijalva is in trouble because he's not progressive enough, Russ - not progressive enough.  

It's all spin.  

[ Parent ]
while i think kos is wrong about why dems are doing poorly
you're implying causation between kos support and poor election results, yet offer little support aside from anecdotal evidence.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Sorry Roscoe
While at least two of three you mention will be back in D.C. next year, probably a dozen or more blue dogs won't.  Not being progressive enough is part of it, not fighting back and attacking is even more the cause.
[ Parent ]
Sorry
Thats not the reason. Blue dogs are in mostly conservative districts. Guys like Grijalva and  Kucinich should not be in remotely competitive races.  
[ Parent ]
I agree...
This ad is sort of silly by stretching out the "stomp" incident, but Paul did take a while to condemn it, and the ad mostly focuses on Paul's real issue positions. I hated the Aqua Buddha ad because it was fundamentally playing from anti-secular and pro-Christian biases regarding Paul's beliefs, which is not at all a legitimate issue.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
What a terrible ad
Strikes all the wrong chords and is a minute long? What? Why did they think they could stretch a few seconds of footage into a minute? They replayed the same video and audio several times throughout the spot.

Just awful.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I've
lost my respect of Conway. I used to admire him greatly but this was a low blow. He's risking being a one term AG at the rate he's going. And he's a GREAT AG.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Now, to be fair...
The Kentucky Democrats cut this ad, not Atty. Gen. Conway's campaign. But it doesn't reflect well on him, because the Kentucky Democrats aren't opposite Paul on the ballot - Conway is.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Trey Grayson is looking to move up
And a gov run is out of the question now, with Williams picking up all the establishment support. I wonder if he will look into challenging Conway?
[ Parent ]
Conway is finished.
But I don't think Aqua Buddha will end up making the difference.  It's a tough year for Dems, and Ky is tough for Dems even in a good year.  If Grayson was the GOP nominee Conway would be down 15+, and Paul will likely be a thorn in the side of the GOP on some issues.  

Dems need to focus on Pa at this point, it's the only race that is probably still undecided.  

[ Parent ]
PA
is gone. Focus on CO and IL.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Il is gone, focus on Co.

[ Parent ]
IL is not gone
Obama has a big rally in Chicago over the weekend. Kirk has the edge but you never know.
[ Parent ]
None of them are gone,
which is why the party committees have spent over $2MM each in PA this week, and over $1MM each in CO and IL.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Thank you
Democrats aren't dead yet. The implosion in Kentucky and the arrogance in Wisconsin potentially cost two seats in the next Senate, but Illinois, Colorado, and Pennsylvania are still within reach, West Virginia and California look pretty good, and Washington and Nevada are tilting Democratic, in my estimation.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Pretty much where I am
although my resolve w/r/t NV has taken some hits.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I can't project anything other than an Angle win
Unless I see some polling with Reid at least tied. Been burned before by going with my gut. I've learned to trust the numbers. Then again some of adleft's numbers are encouraging so I hope I'm wrong.
[ Parent ]
The most heartening thing
was the exchange with the Reid camp telling Ralston and others their private internals had them up 6, and Angle responding that the race was "dead even."  Exactly the same thing happened in PA-12, and it turned out just as the tea leaves suggested.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I know
If PPP come out with a Reid lead in their final poll I may yet believe it.
[ Parent ]
They already did!
A couple weeks ago, just before early voting started. I'm really starting to think they & Suffolk may be prescient.

How often do I have to repeat myself here? Most public polling this cycle is CRAP! CNN says I shouldn't vote (when I already did), and that all Nevada voters this year are white. Razzy overstates Indie numbers (so does CNN). Ralston keeps repeating all this, and explained this is why Nate Silver's forecast is so wildly off.

Seriously, STOP WORRYING ABOUT CRAP POLLS! It's all about GOTV now. And if we finish early voting well tomorrow, I have a feeling CNN & Razzy will be eating plenty of crow come next Wednesday. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Calm down
I know that and the fact there is a history of underpolling Dem performance in the state. You may well be right. I'm just sticking with my standard method. I hope I'm wrong.
[ Parent ]
Sorry. I'm just sick & tired...
Of all these out of state media pundits saying stuff that makes absolutely no sense, and I'm sick & tired of these crappy "polls" fueling these ridiculous media narratives.

It's been a LONG week here, and I just don't have much patience any more for all this crap that even Jon Ralston continues to call BS on.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I, too, am starting to get dejected, and the tea leaves from...
..Ralston, the early voting numbers, and atdleft are all I've got to keep hope alive.

I'm just stunned that they might just elect that batshit crazy lunatic.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree with you that a lot,
if not most, polls are "crap". Seriously. I'm highly skeptical of all of them. I don't think anyone can watch formerly reputable polling firms (Zogby, Strategic Vision, Research 2000) completely failing in reputation, and not have that same kind of skepticism.  
[ Parent ]
Are pollsters "crappier" today
now that we see sooooooo many more of them?

Will this be the year of the robopoll, or the fall of that kind of poll? Or is it something else (Rasmussen is its own case study).

[ Parent ]
I'm taking heart from the early voting
Nevada early voting usually produces a 5-6% turnout advantage for the GOP. This year, it's looking closer to 4%. Sen. Reid is wide awake, the Goodman administration is wide awake, the unions are wide awake, the DSCC is wide awake, and Organizing for America is wide awake. Reid will have a superior ground game for GOTV on Election Day, and he's holding the Republican comparative percentage advantage in early voting significantly lower than the norm.

I'm expecting an electorate that looks about like 43D/39R/18I:

Harry Reid (93D/7R/42I) - 50.28%
Sharron Angle (3D/88R/51I) - 44.79%
Other/NotA (4D/5R/7I) - 4.93%

Kind of surprising results, but I can't see turnout by party registration deviating that much at the present early voting rate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
You really think Reid can break 50%?
I hope you're right! That should make for a VERY happy Tuesday night. :-D

I will say at the very least that my walking and calling this week has produced pretty good results so far. And I just noticed a good sized line at the Albertson's around the corner from the NV Dems' office. Hopefully, it's a good sign as to what we'll see with the early vote update tomorrow morning...

And folks here accused me of being irrationally exuberant...  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I'd be surprised if either candidate breaks 50%
49% is the ceiling, given the closeness of the race and none of the above and the tea party candidate on the ballot.
[ Parent ]
No
I don't buy that. More than likely we lose but it is not for certain. All you got to do is get the base out. The base shows up Alexi wins. Polls show VERY high undecideds among D's. I am no fan of Alexi but he is still in this.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
We have a better shot in Pa than Il...
Toomey is far right, Kirk is a moderate.  Sestak is pretty likable, Giannoulias comes off as very smarmy.  
[ Parent ]
But Illinois is more Democratic
And the polling margin is tighter. At the moment both probably go down but neither is done yet.
[ Parent ]
How is Kirk a moderate?
I'm seriously asking, not trying to be sarcastic. I have always heard the media describe him this way but I remember him being a party line vote more often than not and never really having much to say in the way of criticizing his party. His "voter integrity squad" isn't very moderate either.
[ Parent ]
Kirk
He voted for cap and trade, for one.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Thanks
I guess a decade in Congress I thought he would have more of a moderate track record than a few votes. Most of what I remember him from is the voting squad and the stuff with China.
[ Parent ]
Everything's relative
Compared to Angle, Buck, Miller, Tommey, etc. he's moderate.  But that doesn't make him a moderate.
[ Parent ]
That's what annoys me I think
Sometimes I feel like the press will call any Republican who doesn't scream and yell or say insane things all the time a moderate. By those standards, Tom Coburn is a moderate...
[ Parent ]
Democrats are partly at fault
for permitting the Overton window to move so far to the right.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry
but I think that is inaccurate. Illinois is much more liberal than Pennsylvania and polling has Illinois closer than Pennsylvania with Sestak doing much better with his own party than Alexi is with his. Alexi just has to get D's out and he wins. This is just my view, I'd be willing to hear your take on it.  

Also I agree Sestak is a better than Alexi but I think Toomey is much better than Kirk.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Why?
I think folks here are giving far too much weight to the Mule Tracker, which is made up of fewer than 125 surveys each night.

Other tea leaves here show a much tighter race, including the tied Reuters poll from a couple days ago. Even Rasmussen has it tighter.

[ Parent ]
PA has closed up
If it was still has far apart as it was a few weeks ago, it would be a different story, but now it is far from gone.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
PA is not gone
If you know PA, you know it's not.
[ Parent ]
Apologies
for my PA call. I did not think it would create such controversy. My gut says we won't win here but it would most certainly not be the first time I was wrong. It may not be "gone" but I still have my doubts Sestak can close the gap. We will see.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I worked out the racial crosstabs
from the CNN poll last night. If turnout is anything like the last midterm, this is actually a 2 point race.

It would be crazy not to do a full GOTV effort.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, WTH?
What an embarrassing ad. I wonder why anyone would think that was a good idea.
[ Parent ]
Goddamn it
I hope they don't somehow find a way to screw up Beshear's reelection, but I'm not too confident of that at this point.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Put another way...
That ad is so terrible, I think it gave me cancer.
[ Parent ]
Meh, I really dont find the ad offensive at all
This should have been an overall theme throughout the party that the GOP are nuts and this who they are made up of, people who incite violence.  The real problem is the ad just isn't good.  It could have been done in a much less over the top manner as it such a turn-off to watch I didnt even finish it.

And what even is Aqua Buddha?  What belief is this?  Who else are followers?  I cant find anything on the internet about it and it sounds like the dude saw an Aqua Buddha in the water due to being high off his ass.

[ Parent ]
OFA has passed 7M calls...
Pretty impressive, though I think probably largely meaningless.  I recall a frantic phone banking push for Coakley the last week too, but I guess it's better than doing nothing like me.

Dems carry more than 52 senate seats I'll be surprised.  Same if the Dems have more than 210 house seats.  

Mind you Coakley did get close in the end

[ Parent ]
Right
I think the GOTV helped a lot. Just not enough.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
My God I hate thinking about that election
If Aliens find the ruins of our civilization several millenia from now.....
I want them to know "Martha Coakley ran the worst campaign in history....Kathleen Townsend a close second."

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
hahahaha, definitely agree
Coakley is going to be to politics what Huck Finn is to literature; a well known, well taught classic.  
[ Parent ]
Kathleen Brown for CA-Gov '94 was not far behind
   those two. I am just glad and very relieved that her brother is doing a lot better this year for the same office.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Johnson 48 Feingold 44
how's feingold at closing?
the fact that johnson's not over the hump here (if the poll is reliable) shows that feingold has a slim, but possible chance.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I'm not writing this off
Don't they have same time registration in Wisconsin?  And Feingold came back at the end against Neuman in '98.
[ Parent ]
They do have that.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
My upset special
If I had to pick a senate upset, it would be this race.  PA has been closer, so a Sestak win wouldn't rank as your typical upset.
[ Parent ]
Im sure OFA has been hitting the UW college system hard
They have the built in organization already from two years ago and for the size of the state Id venture a guess they have one of the largest college systems in the country.  You drive for only an hour and a half from Minneapolis down I94 into WI and you go by UW River Falls, Stout, and Eau Claire.
[ Parent ]
PPP will either confirm or deny

[ Parent ]
Count on a "deny"
Remember they said only one surprise and then released that the surprise was in a closer than expected Ct-Gov.  

If they had Russ within four, they'd have it trumpeted as a big deal teaser.  

[ Parent ]
I guess so...
But I've been surprised by poll releases a lot this cycle.
[ Parent ]
I Don't Buy That.....
The most recent poll showed Feingold within two.  A four-point deficit for Feingold is hardly out of line with most people's expectations of the race.
[ Parent ]
SUSA: Paul by 9
I'm thinking about that now
55-45.
[ Parent ]
Sen. Rand Paul...
...is going to be bad. I expect him to wind up in disrepute like Sen. Jim Bunning though.
[ Parent ]
In 2016
I think a Conway Rematch or having Beshear running could unemploy Ole' Randy Paul.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Wow. Impressive
[ Parent ]
Him and McConnell are both prime targets
Wrong candidate in 2008, shit year in 2010.  We'll get things to align eventually.
[ Parent ]
Another good poll for Chafee
And for Paul LePage
40-28-24. Mitchell in third.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

[ Parent ]
Is this the "surprise"?
I thought someone posted that it was CT-Gov.

I've really grown tired of Tom Jensen and his teaser tweets.

[ Parent ]
No, the surprise is CT-Gov
These numbers are noteworthy, sure, but this PPP poll confirms the latest form Rasmussen and Critical Insights, so hard to call it a surprise.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
No
The surprise is definitely that CT-Gov is "much closer" than their last poll.
[ Parent ]
for what it's worth
the poll has 18-29 year olds at 8% of the electorate, cnn says they were 12 in 2006.  a 4 point drop is plausable and cell coverage is iffy in maine, but still it's odd.  also odd is that lepage has a solid plurality of 18-29 year olds (42%) while mitchell had 26% and cutler 18%, which seems odd.  in fact 18-29 yo's are lepages best age demo (all of the other are at 40, which means it's w/in the margin of error).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Interesting to note:
More than three-fourths of the new poll's interviews were completed before Caprio told President Barack Obama he could "take his endorsement and really shove it." That means "Frank Caprio was fading before Shoveitgate happened," Fleming said.

Watch another chunk of Democratic support move from Caprio to Chafee over the next few days.

[ Parent ]
He still has Bill Clinton campaigning for him

[ Parent ]
I don't think that will matter...
Loudly disrespecting a Democratic president in a Democratic state will move many Democratic voters.

But will Clinton be heading back there between now and Tuesday anyway? If he is, that's wasted energy that could be used to shore up other races.

[ Parent ]
According to the link
He is going, as are Romney and Bloomberg.
[ Parent ]
Any
Any chance that Caprio bleeds votes to John Robitaill and he wins?  Is he a moderate GOP like the current governor or hard right like Laffey?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't dismiss anything in this crazy year

[ Parent ]
Hes moderate
And isnt the current gov kinda conservative for RI? Thats the impression I get from here.  
[ Parent ]
PPP Polling:cutler leads mitchell in ME GOV lepage ahead with 40
Lepage: 40
cutler: 28
Mitchell 24.

if cutler looks more viable, he could pull this out as a shocker.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Why is Mitchell such a horrible candidate?!
And if she is horrible, why the Hell wasn't a better candidate recruited for a god damn open Governors seat in Maine?

Ugh.  The Democratic establishment did this to themselves.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
i mentioned earlier why i thought she was bad
as for the candidate selection, it was a 5 or six way primary.  michaud should have run, but he probably figured he'd be facing a good republican opponent

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Anyone notice NH Democratic women kick ass
While the MA and ME ones (Coakley, Tsongas, Pingree, Mitchell) leave much, much to be desired.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
I
think its that fiercely independent spirit that puts fire into the belly of Shaheen and Shea-Porter. While MA and ME have been going blue for decades so they tend to churn out machine politicians which results in boring, complacent candidates. (Then again the only times I've been out of state was to Nevada and the Philippines so what do I know.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
same in VT
madeline Kunin was the last major female dem we've had.  deb markowitz turned what looked like a sizable primary lead into a 3rd place loss.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Another Kentucky poll
Braun has Paul up 46,5% to 39%.

http://politics.mycn2.com/2010...

Twitter.com/Taniel

Georgia early voting
Sorry to go off topic but I was wondering if the results for that are starting yet, or does the voting not begin until late this week?
The State of Georgia has been early voting since September, I believe
EARLY VOTING - No excuses needed.  It's easy and convenient and allows you to vote on a day and time that's convenient for you.  Beginning at least 45 days before a General Election or 21 days before a Municipal General Election, simply visit your county's or municipality's early voting site (click here for a list of locations and hours of operation), fill out the application, and present one of the permitted forms of photo ID.  As Election Day approaches, your county may have multiple early voting sites and even extended hours.

http://www.sos.ga.gov/election...

[ Parent ]
Thanks
I hadn't seen any discussion here about early voting trends in Georgia. I thought it had already started but figured if it had there might have been some posts here.
[ Parent ]
Depending on the county,
, the site of the early can all occur in one place (usually at the county elections office), or over several different places during the early voting period.

The community I vote in has early voting at the county elections office throughout the early voting period, but a week before election day, they open a second voting place at the community convention center.

[ Parent ]
Was watching LA Sen debate, now NH Sen debate
I don't know much about LA politics, but I'm just going to make an assumption that it is never civil, as seen in that debate, and then switched to NH sen debate.

I am liking how hodes defended the HCR bill.  He seems strong and confident, while Ayotte doesn't seem so confident.  It's interesting to say the least.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

You got that right
It is not often civil in LA. Especially when its a one-on-one debate (so much better than the clusterfuck last night) and the two candidates hate each other.  
[ Parent ]
Fivethirtyeight:: 'Robopolls' Significantly More Favorable to Republicans Than Traditional Surveys
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

important reading on why the polling on this election leaves the result in doubt.  I'm of the belief side that pollsters like SurveyUSA are polluting his House model with crap polls, skewing projections.

Nothing would make me happier
than to have the robopollsters end up the furthest from the mark.  We'll see.
[ Parent ]
PPP
Is a robo-poller.  
[ Parent ]
No question in my mind
(without having looked at the data, a dangerous thing)

If the robopolls are proven wrong this election, Ds will keep the House.

[ Parent ]
Matheson ahead by 13 in UT 2
Oh no!!!!!!
Can't be right!!! He's in such a Republican district!

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
do you obama's % here from '08?
i would think it was somewhere around 30 or so
[ Parent ]
40 Actually


20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
Republicans pushing fraud claims in NV-Sen
Iowa's Republican National Committeewoman Kim Lehman tweeted today:

Voter Joyce Ferrara said when they went to vote for Republican Sharron Angle, her Dem opponent, Sen. Harry Reid's name was already checked.

This will be their excuse if Reid hangs on.

Yeah...
The "voter fraud" charge doesn't exactly scream confidence in one's candidate.  
[ Parent ]
They really are going all out with this meme
I'm sure there is some concern about rather or not Angle can pull this off, so they are trying to get GOP turnout up and create an excuse in the event Angle loses.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
That doesn't drive turnout up, it drives it down!
If people think their vote is being "stolen" then, they won't bother to show up.  In addition, can you really drive up GOP tunout any higher than it already is?
[ Parent ]
I agree, it instead drives up paranoia.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That does make sense
But I'm thinking that the Angle camp sees otherwise, because they are pushing this meme for some reason.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I think it's what they genuinely believe
Some of the old-school Republican candidates preyed on public paranoia but the new breed genuinely seem to think everyone is out to get them.
[ Parent ]
They are tring to lay grounds....
...to challenge the results if it is close.
[ Parent ]
and it's also free press
that serves as a great final reminder in the paper to go vote for Angle because the election may get stolen.  Here in MN some group is having people on the streets and are offering $500 to anyone who catches fraudulent voters and they are convicted.
[ Parent ]
It's pure crap...
And they know it. Everyone from the county and the state has said they're on the lookout for voting machine errors, and that there's NO TOLERANCE for any sort of "vote fraud".

If anything, it confirms to me that the CNN & Razzy polls are also crap. Would the Angle campaign really be freaking out like this if they were confident about Tuesday? Someone leaked recently that their internals showed a VERY tight race, and this was about the same time someone else leaked Reid's internals show him up 6%.

I also just heard The R-J's final "poll" to be released this weekend will show results similar to Razzy & CNN, but Ralston is already calling BS on them... And apparently, not even Angle believes it...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I trust you when you say you have good inside info on this.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
has Ralston agreed with a single public poll?

[ Parent ]
So many have been crap...
Why should he? Razzy says Indies will vote in much higher proportion than actual voter registration. CNN says that AND no one under 35 and/or non-white will vote. And The R-J regularly has Mason Dixon screw up its numbers. These pollute the polling averages, which is why Nate Silver says one thing while those of us who know something about Nevada politics say something totally different.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Only the ones that show Reid up
Ralston has believed for several weeks now that Reid is going to win and has gone "all in" to use Las Vegas terms. He will be champ or chump on Wednesday morning depending on how Reid does.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
bullshit lie
to CREATE media frenzy; an OLD campaign tactic(like over 200 YEARS old)
[ Parent ]
I think I can explain this
Republicans are running on grassroots anger and activism this year. They are sensing that some of the base may not turn out--either because they hate Angle or think the race is in the bag--and are making one more attempt to get the base good and pissed off at Harry Reid, the Democrats, the urban machine, the unions, etc. (RedState and their ilk are blaming the fraud on the SEIU. Probably no basis for that, but it gets people mad.) If the base feels like the election is going to be "stolen" from Sharron Angle, they'll turn out in even higher numbers.

I'm not proud of any of this, but that's my take on it.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Speaking of Georgia...
That one Republican pollster (which I would term shady), Landmark Communications gives the following results in a new GA-Gov poll:

Nathan Deal (R) 48.5%
Roy Barnes  (D) 41.6%
John Monds  (L) 4.2%

If you go by a rule that I have for partisan pollsters, the results would look something more like this:

Nathan Deal (R) 43.5%
Roy Barnes  (D) 43.6%

...with third party candidates and undecideds changing a little bit too.

Oh, and of course, Georgia has a runoff law, where if no candidate gets a majority, a runoff is held later.  

Applying any mandatory
rule for partisan pollsters is not a good idea.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Yup, it's reminiscent of what freepers did
in the run up to both '06 and '08. (To be fair, they added correction factors for non-partisan polls too.)

Nevertheless, a healthy skepticism of partisan polls (and non-partisan ones) is appropriate.

(The right correction factor for a partisan poll could be anywhere from 0 to 20 points, depending on the way the poll was conducted, and its purpose.)

[ Parent ]
I disagree
The pushback I usually get from the idea of placing rules on partisan pollsters usually is something along the lines of how each pollster should be judged on its the merits and that some partisan pollsters are better than others.

But this goes against my philosophy that I mentioned earlier in this thread about polling in general being unreliable and "crap" (as another poster put it), and judging each pollster on merits kind of gives them too much credit than I think they deserve. Therefore, I can arbitrarily place rules on pollsters without any guilt because, well, you can't screw up crap any worse than it already is.  

[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter which one
Unless Barnes gets over 50%, he loses.  Because he'll never win the runoff.
[ Parent ]
AK-SEN POLL
Alaska Dispatch: Poll conducted for Alaskans Standing togetherr (group supports Murkowski) has Murkowski leading with 44%, 29% for Miller and 23% for McAdams. Adjust for probable bias and this poll makes a lot of sense. Poll conducted by Alaska-based Hellenthal and Asscociates.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Guarantee that
they polled it without the write-in prompt.
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: M-D Poll to show Angle ahead 4, but....
http://twitter.com/RalstonFlash makes the same argument that public polls are crap in this race and are completely out of line with the private internal polls being conducted.
Also, I suspect that for the second time, M-D does not do a full ballot test.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
And no, he is not in anyone's pocket.
Also, any poll showing Sandoval ahead by 20-something is wrong.  Sandoval is ahead by half that according to private polls.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I agree with all that, and yet this is really a battle royale, and someone...
...is going to have egg on their face.

It will be either the public polls, who all are converging exactly on a 4-point Angle lead except for PPP who I think/hope will be in the field one last time this weekend, or it will be Ralston and Reid's internal pollster and maybe even Angle's internal pollster who happens to be the infamous POS.

The one thing about the public polls I find hard to believe is the idea of Angle scraping up against 50%.  It's really hard to believe she could finish that high.
Nevada will have really regressed in voting behavior if that happens.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And Ralston tweets further that...
...the new M-D poll released tomorrow has Reid down high-teens with indies.  That would be fatal unless Dems establish a big turnout advantage over GOPers.

And Ralston confirmed tonight that Reid's own internals are still very different from this public polls.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Reid's camp spent quite a bit on polling.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well all Senate campaigns do. And they release these internals that most often are outliers. But at least with Reid...
...we're not talking about released internals, we're talking about CNN and Ralston sharing by tweets descriptive inside polling info that was leaked to them.

But hell, they still could be wrong.

After Clay Shaw lost to Ron Klein in FL-22 in 2006, he said his internals showed him up 5 right before the election, but then he lost by 5.

Private polling still has to make all kinds of assumptions about the electorate's partisan breakdown, racial composition, ideological composition, and other demographics.  Just a couple of those assumptions being wrong can throw off the polling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Norm Coleman apparently had the same story

[ Parent ]
i think PPP
is going to have to break the tie this weekend.  If they come up with Angle up anything, I'm going to start to think Reid's people have been blowing smoke.  Ralston is getting his numbers from Reid's people, right?  So it's not like he has any other source, other than Angle's tie?  I'm just saying...  
[ Parent ]
Well why do you have to conclude "blowing smoke" from a PPP poll when instead...
...you can just wait an extra 24-48 hours for the actual election results?

We're so close now that I'm watching the polls really only to see if there's any change in the trajectories of races.  Yes NV-Sen seems to be trending to Angle in all public polls except PPP, but there are credible tea leaves to the contrary, and ultimately the election is in 5 days and we'll know for sure who's blowing smoke without having to rely on the science of statistical sampling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What I'm saying is...
Right now, I DON'T doubt Ralston or Reid's internals.  But if PPP shows an Angle lead, it's going to shift me to the lean Angle camp and doubt will exist.  Doesn't mean I said that it definitely means "blowing smoke"... Of course I can get the results 2 days later.  But we're all speculating and concluding based on the evidence.  Why stop because it's only 2 days from the finish line?
[ Parent ]
Fair enough. :-) I do agree that if PPP shows Angle up now, then...
...I'll go into election day depressed, unless the final early voting turnout was phenomenal for us and ended with our having a happy absolute turnout advantage...and even then I'll be VERY nervous since it just means we could get slaughtered on election day.

Still, it's worth noting Ralston says at least 60% and up to two-thirds of all votes will have been cast early, with less than 40% showing up on election day.  My best guess, which is not necessarily worth much, is that once you've got 60-70% of the vote banked, it's unlikely the rest of it will be very different in partisan makeup.  So I bet we'll have a good idea of the turnout model by this weekend.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
PPP is doing another poll?
When was this announced? I can't find anything on their blog.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Its one of their final polls
Look down a lot on the blog. They are releasing 18 polls between tonight (3 already) and Monday.  
[ Parent ]
I think it's clear that Angle's internals show her up.
Where has been she been the last few days? She's been held up in some tiny diner in the Nevada desert... She's obviously trying to count time down before saying something else dumb.

Look at the trendlines over the last week. It's clear Angle has momentum.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Internal GOPers say it's a dead heat.
And she's hiding so she doesn't make things worse for her.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's silly, she's been hiding in a hole for stretches the entire campaign, and to say...
...that means her internals show her winning is bizarre logic.

She's always been a public embarrassment, and she's always hid herself away for stretches of time.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't believe this whole
private polling beats anything.

I'm sure that my now, Reid has his internals with Latino support at certain levels (..% of the electorate, ...% of the electorate)

It will be interesting to see what PPP comes up with, but I'd project Angle wins.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
And my point about Reid's internals is that the 6 point lead might be of a more broader likely voter base...
But I still hope Reid wins.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Ralston
I think I finally figured out what annoys me about Jon Ralston.  I don't think he's in anybody's pocket, but he reminds me of Tom Fiedler.  Fiedler used to be in FL what Ralston is in NV - the go-to guy in state politics.  Fiedler was always so certain that he was right and that he was the only one who knew that he was talking about where it came to FL politics.  Of course, someone locally based is going to know more than, say, Rothenburg, but it's the smug certainty that bugs me.  Fiedler was often wrong, too (though he was right about Gary Hart screwing around; he was the one who broke that story.)  If Reid loses on election night, I'd love to see this guy's embarrassed face.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
This...
"Fiedler was always so certain that he was right and that he was the only one who knew that he was talking about"

Doesn't that describe everyone who is willing to make election predictions or even follow this stuff?

[ Parent ]
Not at all....
One of the reasons I like this site is because everyone is sharing what they know, what they think, and what they've seen, but only a few people act as the "well I know more than everyone else so suck it."  It's kind of a turn off, and other sites are FILLED with people like that.  (Okay, great, you're interning for the Sacrificial Lamb in Podunk, Georgia.  So obviously you have all of the answers...)

Almost all of the people on SSP (on both sides) have open minds.  That's how you can learn the most and contribute the most.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
That is what attracts me to this place as well.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
It's why Ive been here for three years

[ Parent ]
He has a big reputation to maintain,


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Nevada '08
Both M-D and Ras had Obama winning by 4 in their final Nevada polls.  He won by 12.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

[ Parent ]
they both nailed this one though
[ Parent ]
NM-01: Bernalillo County early vote tea leaves
Pretty much all of the NM-01 vote is in Bernalillo County, which has put out some early vote numbers with partisan breakdowns:

http://www.bernco.gov/upload/i...

I did the numbers... early vote in person + requested mail-in ballots, making the assumption that most requested ballots will be returned by both side.

The numbers aren't too bad.  50.2 D, 38.6 R.  Registration numbers in 2008 were 48 D, 32 R.  Like Nevada, Republicans are turning out and requesting ballots at a slightly higher clip than registered Democrats as a percentage of their registration, but Dems are turning out hard as well, and the party breakdown in Bernalillo County is so crushing that the Democrats can move over 50% of the vote in the early turnout.

It's hard to say how this compares to 2006, because partisan breakdowns weren't really available.  But regardless, this seems like a good sign to me that NM-01 is not in a particularly perilous position.

Found a link talking about 2006!
Awesome

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

Just by a quick glance, the numbers don't look to far off from 2006 to 2010.

[ Parent ]
That is good news. I was hoping NM-01 would be safe.
Now, let's hope there is equally good news for NM-02.
[ Parent ]
klein thinks he will win
you go positive at the end IF your internals indicate you are winning(also; this clearly shows melancon thinks he is losing, so he not only went negative, he went NUCLEAR)
Melancon is losing
12 points in the first independent poll in a while. Klein also does not have much money left (West had 1.1 million more on 10/13) so he had to choose.  
[ Parent ]
Does Anybody Else Find It Unsettling.....
...that postseason baseball is now poised to go beyond election day?  I really detest it.  I used to love postseason baseball but now it goes on a full month and cuts deeper and deeper into election season every year.  I can't even enjoy the World Series this year as a result and it would probably be secondary for me even if my Minnesota Twins managed to get out of the first round of the playoffs.
yes
i agree; the NFL season will be HALF over by the time baseball ends
[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: Now THIS is pretty ridiculous...
Just found out about this:

http://www.wwe.com/inside/stan...

Per WWE press release, they will be handing out merchandise at poll sites.  75 feet away to apparently keep it legal, but really...is this actually legal?

At this point it's practically an admission that they're trying to buy votes.

Male, 23, NJ-12

yes completely legal
if done outside the 'no electioneering' marker;however, a good campaign(in this caes blumenthal)would send its volunteers EARLY to the precincts and grab up as much as the mcmahon folks would give them(another OLD campaign tactic)
[ Parent ]
Wow
Seems crazy.  I'm surprised Meg Whitman doesn't have the state covered in people handing out cars with her name engraved into them.

Male, 23, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
she has the money

[ Parent ]
state too big i guess
nm
[ Parent ]
Waste
Waste of money - good money after bad if you ask me.  Go grab a T-shirt and donate it to your local homeless shelter.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
blumenthal should do exactly that
with his volunteers
[ Parent ]
MI-GOV
The poll was conducted by Epic-MRA of Lansing and is based on 600 telephone interviews with likely voters Oct. 23-26. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

Snyder: 55%
Bernero: 37%
other: 4%
Undecided: 4%

http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/news/p...

Eeek
There better be lots of ticket splitting in MI this year..or we're up the creek.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
I'd say about 10% of Snyder's number
Is probably from Dems splitting their ballot.  A lot of Dems like Snyder and Virg is hyper-partisan and turns moderate Dems off.  
[ Parent ]
Well the latest polling for Schauer and Peters and even McDowell suggest there WILL be......
Michigan Dem candidates on the House lines are looking a lot better than Bernero.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
PPP tweets that MN poll is closer than MPR poll....
...just a heads up...
KSTP TV- Survey USA...
...will be out with a with a poll of the Governors race later tonight.

FWIW I see Dayton winning but this is not going to a double digit win so PPP's tweet does not surprise me.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Well, that is bad news. As a Minnesotan,
I will lose it if Democrats/moderates again split the vote again and allow the GOP candidate to win.  
[ Parent ]
what is it with Minnesota?
How many times do Minnesotans need to slip on that banana peel before third-party candidates stop getting so many votes?

I still think Dayton will win.

[ Parent ]
It's unusual that the MN 3rd party candidates are remarkably non-extremist
If there was a punchline, it'd be that there are no extremists in the Independence party because they're all in the GOP, but in these times that's more sad than funny.
[ Parent ]
It wont happen this year
Dayton hasn't budged from the lower 40%'s in overall polling and that's because the DFL base is hungry for this one.  There wont be the enthusiasm gap seen around the country here and I bet we'll be the hardest Democratic partiers on Election Night.  Probably why they moved the statewide party to the Hilton this year  ;).
[ Parent ]
Poetic Justice Against Angle.
The mayor of the small town Angle was in today just endorsed Reid.
http://www.harryreid.com/index...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
so tired of zombie Republican lies
Terry Branstad is still running tv ads containing lies that were debunked months ago. Many Republican candidates in Iowa are running ads about the alleged $500 billion in Medicare cuts caused by Obamacare--fact-checkers declared that claim to be false weeks ago.

On the plus side, a Republican lie about Iowa Democrats spending taxpayer money on heated sidewalks is driving lots of traffic to a Bleeding Heartland post I wrote. This claim appears in direct mail and tv ads targeting lots of Iowa House Democrats. You'd be surprised how many people are doing web searches for "Iowa heated sidewalks," "heated sidewalks Des Moines" or some such.

PA-Sen and other PA races
So the GOTV effort appears in full swing.  

To be up front, I jsut moved to South Philly after having lived in other parts of the city for 10 years.

But tonight driving home for work, I saw an insane amount of signs with pictures of Obama at the president's desk, the wording on ths sign "Help Obama, vote November 2."  No mentiond of a single candidate, just Obama and voting.

Then I get home and have a voicemail from someone (sorry I deleted it) telling me to vote in the election, stressing the importance of voting and asking me to help do phonebanking over the weekend.

I've obviously never seen signs for a candidate not on the ballot urging voters top the polls while not mentioning a single candidate.  I've also never been called and asked to phone bank.  I think the GOTV is in full effect, and we can only hope it produces the results we want.

And this is South Philly, which is more Italian and more retail (too many shops if you ask me) than some other parts of the city are certainly going to be better targets for the signage.  But I'm sure the signs are already there.

Washoe has big voting day.
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/vot...
Dems at 39%, GOP at 44% of the vote today

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
If you fix it to 2-party
it's 47% Dem, 53% GOP

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Is that good or bad?
Forgive me... My head is so full of polls and other numbers, I forget what is considered good or bad in NV right now...
[ Parent ]
It's in between.
MinnesotaMike and itskevin can tell you the trends.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Right on the edge
Not great, not terrible. About the same percentage today as the total vote so far is Washoe county. It looks right now  like total early voting turnout is going to pretty much dead even with the Dems maybe holding a 1 point lead.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
That really make me nervous. I feel like we need...
...a little bigger edge than that.  I'm realistic enough to know we won't hold the 5-point voter registration advantage, but I'd like to see, say, a 3-point edge in turnout.

I have no idea what to expect for election day turnout.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
We'll have to see the Clark numbers...
To get a better sense of what's happening.

Again, crossing fingers...  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
PPP tweets
Same thing in WI as Maine- only 70% of Obama voters still approve of him. That plus enthusiasm gap makes it very hard for Dems

GOP up 9
in both Wisconsin races.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

The fact that Johnson has such high favorables....
...with all the baggage he has shows that Feingold's campaign was one of the worst flops of the year.
[ Parent ]
he must have figured
he could take it easy once Tommy Thompson passed on the race. In fairness, most of us thought so too.
[ Parent ]
I still can't believe Feingold and Lincoln will be gone next year
Not to mention no Bayh or Dodd. It'll be odd seeing Specter and Gregg outta there, too. It's just surreal seeing half a dozen veterans drop like flies. Oh, and Bob Bennett, too!

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
maybe Feingold can run again
if Kohl retires.
[ Parent ]
Talked
about this a few weeks ago on an open thread. Came to the conclusion that it is a bad idea. Like him or not you can't deny he is a bad candidate. Kind is a much better fit.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Absolutely Unbelievable.....
Wisconsin has completely lost its mind.
[ Parent ]
Not just Wisconsin
But also Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Our only bright spots are California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island.

[ Parent ]
Go New York!
(Even though I'm voting for more Republicans than Democrats.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Out of curiosity...
how are you splitting your ticket?
[ Parent ]
I'm splitting it...
Cuomo, Schumer, DioGuardi, Donovan, Wilson.

I'm not thrilled with DioGuardi, but I think I'd prefer checks-and-balances over two more years of Gillibrand, who I've just never warmed up to. I love that she defeated that scumbag John Sweeney in '06, and I wish Paterson never appointed her to this seat. She was fine as a Blue Dog, but after flip-flopping on issue after issue, she's no longer convincing. I wish Carolyn Maloney had primaried her...I'd vote for her in a heartbeat.

I love Donovan, who's a Bloomberg/Koch-style guy, and Wilson just has to be better than Tom DiNapoli. I'm fine with another six years of Schumer, and I have pretty high hopes for Cuomo.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
This is a totally incoherent list
Respectfully, the only people who vote this way either just don't care about issues or have a clue how government actually works (or both).  
[ Parent ]
I love you too!


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
lol
If your gonna vote Republican though, as a Dem, you definitely made the best choices. DioGuardi is actually a lot more moderate than I thought.  
[ Parent ]
Republican for Cuomo here
If I was in NY, I'd vote for Cuomo. He really seems like a Democratic Chris Christie to me. NY needs someone like that. I do worry about him in the future though...
[ Parent ]
Vote
I wouldn't be able to stomach Palidino, but I would vote for The Rent Is Too Damn High candidate.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
That guy looks awesome with that Victorian-era beard.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Isn't
he anti Semitic?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Well
Perhaps a bit, but he's not going to win.  It would either be him or the Madam/Whore.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I should
I should point out that I'm part Jewish, so I'm not dismissive of anti-Semitism, there just doesn't seem to be enough of it in this case for me to care.  Not when it's a joke candidacy.  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
This
makes me have second thoughts about Cuomo. : )

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
This
makes me have second thoughts about Cuomo. : )

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Some places it's just cyclical
For every Franken, a Feingold eventually must lose, or something like that.

Pretty fucking depressing, though.  

[ Parent ]
Money
Are the national organizations still spending money there?  And if so, does it make sense to cancel the weekend ad buys?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
National organizations haven't spent a dime there...
Feingold hasn't allowed it... Now, he'll get creamed...
[ Parent ]
Principled fool.
At the end of the day, still a fool.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Unbelievable
People are going to exchange a JFK Profile in Courage Award winner for a guy whose "Issues" section on his website is nothing but meaningless conservative platitudes?

The majority is being idiotic. It wouldn't be the first time, so I can't say that I'm surprised.

[ Parent ]
I now give Blanche Lincoln a chance
Of getting a higher percentage than Feingold. Not much of a chance, but a chance.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Hell naw
Feingold's floor is probably around 43%...which is Lincoln's ceiling.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Way to many partisan Dems in WI
For Feingold to do that bad. There are a lot more Dems than Reps in AR, but they are not partisan. I would not be surprised to see Boozman win 40% of Dems. Lincoln will be lucky to break 40%. I can't see Feingold getting any lower than 42-44%.  
[ Parent ]
I agree
But I think Lincoln may close a little and get in the low to mid forties as well. I could see something like Johnson 56, Feingold 43 and Boozman 56, Lincoln 44. Not likely, but possible if Dems in Milwaukee and Madison sit this one out.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
MN Gov- KSTP TV- Survey USA...
Dayton 39
Emmer 38
Horner 13
Other/Undecided 9

No link yet.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Crosstabs
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Survey is 35% Rep, 33% Dem, 29% Ind. No way. This poll is worthless.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Let's Hope......
....but I've seen this movie before.....in 1990....in 1998....in 2002....and in 2006.  Until 99% of the vote is in on Tuesday night and the returns are showing Dayton ahead by 5, I'm gonna be counting on a Governor Emmer.
[ Parent ]
Southern Minnesota
In this poll Emmer leads 43-30 in southern Minnesota. In SUSA's poll of MN-01 (Southern Minnesota) yesterday Dayton led 42-41.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
To quote Ken Jeong in "Community"...
"My bullcrap meter is going crazy!"

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
PPP
Also saying its much closer than that poll from the other day. If Emmer somehow wins, will it be because he ran an amazing campaign (I somehow doubt that) or did Dayton run a terrible campaign (much more likely).  
[ Parent ]
Neither......
Dayton ran the best campaign of the three candidates.  Emmer ran the worst.  But clearly, none of the above were great and Dayton's political baggage from the past has given pause to a lot of voters.  If Emmer wins it'll be because Minnesota didn't escape the conservative tidal wave sweeping the country this fall and the Horner voters were more ideologically aligned with Emmer than Dayton and moved towards Emmer to keep Dayton out of office.  
[ Parent ]
SUSA can't poll MN to save their lives.
They were off in 2008 and are off now.  
[ Parent ]
KY-SEN reminds me...
... of OK-SEN in 2004. We'll see what happens next Tuesday, but it looks like it's going to be a near-repeat.

To recap for you young'uns, in Oklahoma, 2004, Democrats recruited their strongest possible candidate, Rep. Brad Carson. Republicans saw their best-laid plans go up and smoke when their establishment pick, Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys get beaten (aka "proto-teabagged") but a crazy, archconservative doctor (and former congressman) Tom Coburn.

Throughout the race, Coburn's extreme views, personal baggage (sterilizing someone without their consent), and outrageous statements (lamenting an "epidemic" of lesbianism in high schools) kept the race seemingly close. Carson even lead much of the polling a few months out. Yet on Election Day, Coburn won decisively, by an 11-point margin.  

Well
Perhaps he was right about the high school lesbians?  I now understand there is a term - "LUG" to describe it. :)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Excellent Comparison.....
....and most likely with an identical election night outcome.
[ Parent ]
decent comparison...
But the only thing I'll say to keep the Democrats' hope alive is that I vividly remember the Meet The Press debate for that race, and Carson looked outgunned in it.  He looked like the kid going up against the polished adult.  This year's race in KY is 180 degrees the other way.  The Democrats have the polished adult.
[ Parent ]
OK-Sen was my first real taste of disillusionment
I put so much faith into the polls that I thought that Carson was gonna stun everyone and win an upset victory. I swore to everyone who would listen (mostly my very patient roommate) that Oklahoma was gonna be the biggest shocker of the night. Then Carson got crushed and I learned that some races just can't be won no matter how good your guy or how bad their guy.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
I remember
reading the early exit polls in 2004 and possibly the Zogby predictions from the same day or the day before. I thought Kerry was on his way to a pretty nice victory, so I was pumped before I left for a three-hour class. You can only imagine how disillusioned I was when I started seeing everything that I could would come to fruition just not happen.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
See, I never
thought that Kerry was going to win. I remember going out for drinks that night with friends b/c we refused to sit at home and watch the results. My friends and I drowned our sorrows early in anticipation of our move to Europe to avoid another four years of Bush! LOL!!!

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Shock Quest Poll! RI-1
Cicilline only leads 42-40, maybe that Loughlin internal wasn't that far off.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Gotta link wth that? n/t

[ Parent ]
Quest Research
[ Parent ]
Two indies get a combined 9%
Feels a bit high but with Chafee likely to win I guess it could boost some independents a bit.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
If
If the GOP actually takes that seat, I would think that puts their total number of wins north of 70, but I still don't believe that they will.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I gotta keep saying it.
Don't be too impressed with "shocking" polls right before Election Day. It happens every election, but it has more to do with people actually beginning to pay attention to election than it does with any changes in the fundamentals of races.
[ Parent ]
RI-01
Didn't the GOP actually hold that seat before Kennedy?  If I remember right, the guy retired and it was an open seat in 1994 - the only one that flipped GOP to Dem that year, but as it was an open seat, it didn't really get counted as a GOP loss somehow.  I guess now we know why Obama went up there the other day.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Almost correct
It was one of 4 seats that flipped the other way in '94.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Thanks
I did remember no GOP incumbent lost, but couldn't remember if any other open seats flipped.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
It was one of the few Dem pickups in 1994 but not the only one
According to Wikipedia the Dems picked up ME-1, MN-6, PA-18, and RI-1.  The Republicans vacating the first three seats were Olympia Snowe, Rob Grams, and Rick Santorum.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
PPP pretweet on TX
Obama's approval with indys in Texas is 33% and Bill White's winning them anyway. Right candidate, wrong cycle

So, I take it White's losing then?


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Yeah. 53-44
[ Parent ]
See you in 2014, White
Pass on the 2012 Senate Race, go for gov again after Perry has to deal with the budget shortfall and spends more time building a national profile than a texan one.

And bring some other candidates with you to the state ticket! (SA mayor Julian Castro, Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia, State Sen Royce West, Rodney Ellis, or Wendy Davis). Any of them for backup would be great.

And get Jeff Weems again for Railroad commissioner!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I really don't see
Perry running again.
[ Parent ]
Perry (assuming re-election) will look better in '14
after the economic recovery that (I assume) is coming.
[ Parent ]
Sure
By 7-10% in all polls
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Clark County EV numbers rise to 24,144.
http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/...
atdleft said that all of the mobile units were in friendlier areas today, so I hope that the party breakdown in the morning is good for us.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
New SUSA WA-SEN Poll
Sorta confirming Ras, tie at 47%

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Link
http://www.king5.com/community...

If you refuse to post links at least you could mention where you found the poll.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Methodology
The poll was conducted over three days including people with both landlines and cell phones, using automated and live interviews of 678 likely and actual voters.

That isn't normal is it?  

[ Parent ]
He uses an old phone that doesn't allow for linking.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
SurveyUSA doesn't know how to poll the Pacific Northwest
Pure dreck. They were more than 20 points more favorable to Scott Bruuuuuuuuuuuun than Seattle hometown hero Elway in a recent pair of dueling polls released just a day or two apart.

Between the two, considering Elway's bread and butter is Oregon and Washington (I don't believe they poll much elsewhere), and they're contracted by The Oregonian, The Seattle Times, and other major area newspapers, I'm going to take Elway as the more accurate of the two. SUSA has come up with some truly bizarre findings this cycle; maybe they're betting on a really, really "out there" model and coasting on their reputation to save them if they wind up having a terrible record this cycle ("But there was so much volatility! We're bound to be a bit off occasionally!"), but either way, I think they've got less to lose than Elway.

I'd say this race is close with a definite edge to Sen. Murray. Considering well over half the vote is already in, I think that translates to a Murray win pretty close to the margin Gov. Gregoire got against Rossi (hopefully the second time, not the first!).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
My guess it will be in between
Murray 51, Rossi 49 - something like that.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
They don't list how she's doing...
...among those who have already voted...  SurveyUSA usually has a line about that.  I bet that she leads, but the media buried that part of the story.

Is there any way to get info on where ballots are coming from?

[ Parent ]
Panelists Attack Vitter, Melancon in LA Sen debate
I have never seen a panel go after candidates as much as these panelists did tonight. I'm still watching it, but they are both doing good. Getting their attacks in. MElancon may have made a mistake though, in attacking one of the most popular men in Southeast LA, US Attorney Jim Letten. Attacking Letten really hurt a mayoral candidate this year, taking him from a strong second place finish to 3rd place.  
Forgot the links
http://www.wwltv.com/video?id=...
Parts 2,3,and 4 will can be found at the bottom. According to Clancy DuBos, basically our Jon Ralston, said Melancon won.
[ Parent ]
CA-Sen: Field poll out
Boxer's up 49%-41%, with 4% for others and 6% undecided.  Looks good for her re-election.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

Stick a fork in this one
It's done.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yep
Again proving PPP does know what it is doing. Can anyone explain why CA is having higher Dem turnout this year than 2008?  
[ Parent ]
We are motivated to put a Democrat back in the governors office,
and even more so, we are motivated to get rid of Meg Whitman. Fiorina is an idiot too.

I don't know if the marijuana prop. is increasing turnout or not.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Keep in mind in 2008
we had to vote for President, US Congress, and then local offices. No big competitive Senate race or governor's race.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Suffolk: Patrick up by 6
Toomey up in Muhlenberg tracking
Can I just say?
Save me from the circular firing squads...Sometimes, I swear that I hate being a Democrat for that reason.  When they lose, Republicans blame the electorat and run to the right. The media does not tell them to moderate at all.  

When Democrats don't win, we blame each other.  Obama didn't save us...Nancy was to mean...We were too Liberal...We were not Liberal enough...

I am telling you people that it is just not cute. STOP. IT. I mean really.  I am depressed as anyone but I am not going to blame any other Democrat for it.

We lost before and we came back.  We can do it again.    

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

so mad I cannot spell "electorate"


41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Here's a wacky poll...
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elon...

Elon University, Oct. 24-27, 515 North Carolina adults, MoE 4.4%
Richard Burr (R) - 33%
Elaine Marshall (D) - 33%
Undecided - 27%

Why the hell don't they have even an RV screen?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

SSP Daily Digest: 10/28 (Afternoon Edition) | 364 comments

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