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SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 2:59 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: As is often the case, Alaska dominates our headlines today. Perhaps biggest in its implications is a hot-off-the-grill ruling from a judge that says that the state can't provide a list of possible write-in candidates for people in the voting booth. Obviously, that hurts the cumbersome-named Lisa Mukrosky Morkoski Gibr Murkowski. Also, in the good news (well, maybe not, considering how far her star has fallen in-state) column for Joe Miller: Sarah Palin will be returning to the Last Frontier to stump for him tomorrow.

On the bad news front for Miller, though, first, he had to shout "I LIE!" yet again. That's a confession from his own work e-mails, over his now-well-known reprimand for hijacking (and covering up his tracks) of co-workers' computers to rig a local Republican online straw poll. That's at the core of his Fairbanks personnel files, released last evening after he declined to appeal their release to the state supreme court. On top of that, now the Army is investigating his use of its soldiers from Fort Richardson to act as his personal paramilitary force during their off-hours; in addition to rules prohibiting active military members from involvement in political campaigns, it's unclear whether they had their commander's permission to seek outside employment.

• CA-Sen: Here's some good news; Carly Fiorina bounced back quickly from her hospitalization yesterday for an infection associated with her breast cancer recovery, and left the hospital today. She'll be back on the trail tomorrow, says her campaign.

• CO-Sen: Would you believe this is the biggest-money Senate race anywhere in the country? It is, if you go by outside group expenditures. 27 different IE groups have spent nearly $25 million in Colorado, with the NRSC leading the way. (Nevada will still probably wind up the most expensive overall, factoring in the candidates' own accounts.) Meanwhile Ken Buck is in the news for two other reasons, first, his questioning of the separation of the church and state... handled more elegantly than Christine O'Donnell's palm-to-forehead method, but still probably a liability as he seeks to downplay his extremism. And also, he's now agnostic on whether he'll support Mitch McConnell for GOP leader (Buck, of course, owes Jim DeMint big-time for getting him as far as he's gotten).

• WV-Sen: Wow, this stuff literally writes itself. John Raese, under fire from Joe Manchin and the DSCC for his Florida mansion (and, for all practical purposes, residency), is now going to have to put some spin on this. The current item on the agenda for the Palm Beach planning commission: approval for Raese to replace a six-by-eight-foot "giant dollhouse" on his property with a fourteen-by-fifteen-foot "glass conservatory," perfect for those real-life Clue re-enactments. I know that's a problem that most West Virginians grapple with on a day-to-day basis.

• AZ-Gov: Now here's an October Surprise that's pushing the envelope (close to a November Surprise). Old documents reveal that Jan Brewer, a state Senator at the time, was involved in a 1988 auto accident where she was suspected at the time of driving under the influence. While she was immune from arrest at the time because the legislature was in session, it's not clear why the case wasn't pursued after that.

• MS-04: This might provide a small boost (dozens of votes?) to Gene Taylor: the Republican who lost the primary to state Rep. Steven Palazzo threw his backing to Taylor. Joe Tegerdine, interestingly, was the Tea Party candidate in the GOP race (with Palazzo the establishment pick), and finished with 43% of the vote; Tegerdine seemed to frame his decision very much in terms of pissing off the Republican establishment, in fact.

• Dark Money: If you look at only one link today, it should be this one, where a picture is worth way more than 1,000 words. It shows the octopus tentacles linking all the various shadowy outside groups that have poured in hundreds of millions of undisclosed dollars, and how they all kind of link back to Republican leadership. It's almost worthy of Glenn Beck's blackboard (well, if it had Woodrow Wilson and Diego Rivera on there somewhere).

• DNC: To quote Don Brodka, "if I wanted smoke blown up my ass, I'd be at home with a pack of cigarettes and short length of hose." Nevertheless, the DNC is out with a memo today showing in various ways how the Republican wave hasn't materialized, at least not in the form of early voting patterns so far, that's worth a look-see (especially the graphs).

• SSP TV:
• CO-Sen: The DSCC has two spots in Colorado, both with citizens reciting the litany of why they can't vote for Ken Buck
• IL-Sen: The DSCC links Mark Kirk to George W. Bush, while Alexi Giannoulias trots out the Obamas in his own ad
• MO-Sen: I seriously can't summon up anything interesting to say about the last ads from Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan; it's been that sort of race
• NV-Sen: The DSCC finishes in Nevada by pointing out how Sharron Angle consistently brings teh crazy
• PA-Sen: The DSCC hits Pat Toomey on outsourcing yet again, while Pat Toomey goes blandly autobiographical for his closing spot
• WA-Sen: The DSCC's parting shot is to hit Dino Rossi over his web of connections to unsavory real estate and lending partners
• WI-Sen: Both candidates close by ragging on each other; Ron Johnson hits Russ Feingold for only being fake "mavericky," while Feingold asks why Johnson is being so vague and cagey about his agenda
• WV-Sen: The DSCC's newest ad hits John Raese on the Florida residency issue yet again
• ND-AL: This may be the most interesting ad of the day: Earl Pomeroy faces the camera and says "I'm not Nancy Pelosi, and I'm not Barack Obama" (yeah, that's pretty evident by looking at you); he pivots off people's anger to say they'll be even angrier, though, if Republicans go against the farm bill, Social Security, and so on
• WA-08: Suzan DelBene's last ad beats the 'change' drum, and focuses on the Seattle Times endorsement again

• Rasmussen:
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 46%, LeAlan Jones (G) 5%
• MD-Sen: Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 56%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%
• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 35%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%
• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 46%, Chris Dudley (R) 49%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 42%, Scott Walker (R) 52%
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 49%, John Raese (R) 46%
(ooops, time for Scotty to get in line with everyone else on this one!)
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Afternoon Edition) | 532 comments
Having Palin stump for Miller in Alaska is good
news for Murwokksyki and McAdams because Palin is pretty unpopular in Alaska after quitting part way through her governor's term.

I am confused on the AZ-Gov note:

Old documents reveal that Jan Brewer, a state Senator at the time, was involved in a 1988 auto accident where she was suspected at the time of driving under the influence. While she was immune from arrest at the time because the legislature was in session, it's not clear why the case wasn't pursued after that.

Legislators get immunity while in session? That can't be right. What if a legislator killed someone would the cops have to wait until the session ended to arrest them?

it's based on the US Constitution
>>>>>
Article 1 Section 6:
They shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their Attendance at the Session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place.
<<<<<

Arizona probably has a similar local law.  Obviously murder would be felonious.  Probably put in place to prevent partisan hacks and underlings in law enforcement way back in the day from arresting legislators for petty, arguable offenses to prevent them from voting against their wishes.

[ Parent ]
Interesting
I know that my Congressman, Jim McGovern, was arrested along with a few other Democrats for trespassing during a Darfur protest a few years ago. (Obviously, they intended to get arrested to draw attention to the cause.) I wonder if the House was out of session, or if trespassing fell under "Breach of the Peace."

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Its like that it many states
I think there are some exceptions though, like I have to imagine murder would be an exception.
[ Parent ]
I have to get back to work soon,
but I'd like to know why any sort of combined campaigning between the candidates for governor and/or Senate in states like Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York isn't being talked about. As I've said before, if those campaigns can each drag one or two House members over the finish line, it could make the difference between holding it and losing it. Is it that there's really no story there? If so, why? There aren't any obvious laws, to me at least, preventing this sort of thing. There's always the possibility that someone like Andrew Cuomo is far more popular downstate than he is upstate, but would he be so unpopular in, say, Hall's NY-19 that he couldn't help him at all? Maybe this is happening so far under the radar so as to not prevent any sort of response to counteract what the Democrats are doing, but leaks happen. It seems like a story that is just waiting to be reported.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
NV-Sen: Angle is trying to drum up allegations of voter fraud.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...
What the hell is she trying to pull?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Also this:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/new...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Standard GOP tactic
There are plans for a whole brigade of morons to harass people on election day and video tape buses and vans dropping off voters.  I dont know if it's nationwide but I've been reading about it a lot in my local news.  

Of course we all know this country has absolutely zero voter fraud problem and it's all GOP scare tactics to help their cause.  And finding a way to rally against colored people brings out the closet racists which is how they get volunteers for this crap.

[ Parent ]
To me it seems like her polls must show her losing
if she is already pushing the voter fraud meme.  I wonder how these claims play with independents? I tend to find them annoying whether they come from Dems or Reps.
[ Parent ]
Ugg, that dark money link is disgusting
I have been thinking, how do we end this problem of corporate influence in our elections?

The only idea I can come up with is only 100% public campaign financing.  That could be a little extreme, but I think it would be the only way to end these shadowy groups and their corporate sponsors.

I mean honestly, you could pass something like the disclose act, but typical voters are too busy watching Teen Mom and Jersey shore to even care about that crap.  What do you guys think?  This is probably a problem that won't be addressed for a decade unfortunately.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

This supreme court would never allow it...
They have already thrown out milder public financing for campaigns in various states..
[ Parent ]
Well, there is always the constitutional amendment process...
Honestly, I don't know why politicians would be against it to be quite honest.  I am supposing that the amendment would bar Independent expenditures as well.  I see this as a win-win for voters and elected politicians alike.

First off, they would never have to fund raise again.  One thing that stood out to me during the whole Eric Massa saga, I remember him complaining about fundraising and calling doners.  Here is a snippet from a CBS News story

Politicians don't just attend fundraisers to generate donations - they also spend a good chunk of their days on the phone hitting up donors. In May, Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner suggested on "Real Time with Bill Maher" that members of Congress spend five hours per day fundraising. And Eric Massa, while discussing his resignation from the House amid charges that he behaved inappropriately with staffers, said lawmakers have no choice but to continually raise money for their reelection, deeming the system "out of control."

If they are spending less time raising funds, it would make them seem more accountable to the voters, as well as have more time to do constituency services.

I think if this were brought up in a serious manner, it could have some legs.  Then again, Corporate republicans would probably fight back saying it somehow takes someone's rights away or something.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
do a constitutional amendment
to just make business no longer people save for litigation.  And that is winnable with voters and would obviously be championed by Democrats.  The only message the Democrats would need to say is, "Hello American voters, if you support this amendment, you will see half as many political ads on television."

Getting enough GOPers for a 2/3, it'd take quite awhile once we've whittled them down due to population changes.

[ Parent ]
While corporate personhood is prevelant problem
I do not know if that would solve the problem, couldn't they still do Independent Expenditure advertisements?  Then we would see individuals cashing the checks instead of corporations.  I think only doing that would create a loophole.

Again, Public finance would be the best thing to do I think for all federal races. The national party organizations would only have to task of finding good candidates as opposed to doing that AND raising money.  I think a good way to determine which candidates get how much based on how much money it costs to run ads in their own media market.

What are the odds that someone actually has to balls to do that at some point.  I think if Obama gets elected by a large enough margin, carrying a large amount of Dems on his coat tails in 2012, he would have enough political capital to try to get the house and senate to propose a constitutional amendment like that.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Ammendment
I think the sort of amendment he's speaking of is the one referenced at Move To Amend. It says that corporations aren't people and, more importantly here, money is not speech. Therefore public financing and various other campaign finance restrictions would be constitutional.
[ Parent ]
Jensen's tweets re enthusiasm gap
http://twitter.com/ppppolls

Says it's not closing enough.  Implies not so great polls in Florida and Illinois, although good in PA.  

he's referring to past polls
No new polls of those states have been made and are they are all revealed. Even with that FL gap, he had Sink up 5. Since other polls show a Scott lead, and others show a Sink lead, I will say that this will be the closest race on Election night.
[ Parent ]
They have started though
Final 18 polls went into the field last night.  
[ Parent ]
His post, though,
clearly references polls that have already been published.
[ Parent ]
Plus, from his most recent tweets,
it seems like he's doing the less contested races first, and the tighter races over the weekend.

Where did you get that all 18 are already in the field?

This year I moved Wisconsin up from the last weekend to middle of the week because there was little doubt about outcome     2 minutes ago  via web

In 2008 I moved our final CO poll up from the last weekend to middle of the week because there was no doubt about outcome 2 minutes ago via web


[ Parent ]
you saying that
made my heart skip a beat.
[ Parent ]
Nate addresses the issue w/r/t his model
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

Read that again: it means that if our forecasts turn out to be biased against Democrats by just 2 points overall, the party becomes about an even-money bet to hold the House.

[ Parent ]
Love the Kirk/Bush ad...
especially with Bush saying: "I want to thank my friend, Congressman Mark Kirk."
That's sure to be popular in Illinois.
Maybe somewhere like, say, Kentucky that would work, but I doubt having George W. campaign for you is going to win too many votes in Illinois, except for the hardcore Republicans who were going to vote for Kirk anyway.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
its a dscc ad


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Politicians use "Friend" very casually
Voters know that "my distinguished friend" is code for "that fucking asshole."
[ Parent ]
Chicago Mayor
Looking past next Tuesday

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-...

Cook County (Ill.) Sheriff Tom Dart announced Wednesday he will not run for mayor of Chicago, becoming the fourth high-profile politician to decline to run.

All four announcements stand to benefit President Obama's former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who left the White House earlier this month to seek the office of mayor, which is being vacated by six-term Mayor Richard Daley (D).



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
At this rate, there might not even be a run-off...
Dart's out, Gutierrez's out, Jackson's out -- I think Emmanuel's highest-profile challenger is Carol Moseley-Braun.

And, somewhat to my surprise, I'm finding that voters in the South Side neighborhoods I've been working are pretty enthusiastic about Rahm.  

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
Does Braun actually have a shot?
Also, has anybody ever gone from U.S. Senator to Mayor? (Senator to governor isn't uncommon, and even Senator to Representative has happened a few times, i.e. Claude Pepper.)  
[ Parent ]
RNC Chair Election: Steel Running for Re-Election
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...
Is he THAT stupid? One, to run again after the disaster he has been, and two to announce right before the election? This is the kind of thing for after the election.
On a related note, when is the election for RNC chair?  
hahahahaha
oh that poor guy.  Remember how they brought him on to attract AA to the party?  Tea flavored people made sure that never happened.  (maybe I'll compromise on baggers, but they are not a party)
[ Parent ]
That sort of sums up the basic problem
for Republicans going forward.  Top-level Republicans want to make the party more attractive to African-Americans and Hispanics, because they recognize that they're doomed 10-15 years from now if they continue to rely only on the votes of white people.  But the Republicans' base wants no such thing; they want the Republicans to continue to be a whites-only party.

When the Republicans started parading out token minorities a few years back, most base voters seemed to be okay with it; it was when Republicans started actually trying to change their policy positions to appeal to A-A and Hispanic voters that the Teabaggers revolted.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Steele could not get black votes for the GOP...
when he could not even win them in MD to be the senator in 2006. He has not other job to go to.  He likes the perks.  


41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
I can understand
why he wouldn't quit, but I can't understand why he would be tolerated by the powers in the Republican party. Granted, a lot of the chairman's role, fund raising, has been outsourced to Karl Rove's groups and others like it, and he has kept his mouth shut for a few months. But still...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I've simply never
understood why the party didn't line up some non-white individual to take over the chairmanship and then work to either toss Steele out or make him quit. There aren't that many black Republicans in this country, but there are a few. And there are even more Hispanic Republicans. You're telling me there's not a state senator somewhere who isn't a gigantic idiot with a propensity to talk out of his ass that wouldn't love to instantly raise his or her profile? Exactly what would the fall out be if they replaced Steele with someone who also wasn't white? I can't think of any.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Most of the baggers
Supported Blackwell though.  
[ Parent ]
Climate
It's a sad day when Charlie Melancon, Robin Carnahan and Brad Ellsworth are going to lose to the three "public servants" that they face.  The ads write themselves for these three races.  I hope Melancon and Ellsworth run for something in the future, but truly they probably can get more good done in the private sector given how ideological/partisan Congress is.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

I don't know about Melancon
But Carnahan and Jack Conway will almost certainly run for higher office again down the road. Conway's young and is still AG, and Carnahan is still MO royalty and remains Secretary of State.

As for Ellsworth? Maybe if Bayh runs for governor in 2012, he can select Ellsworth as his LG. Or maybe Ellsworth can run for Congress again in 2012. But given that he doesn't have a background in politics, I could easily see him just returning to private life.  

[ Parent ]
Carnahan did have that great ad about Bailout Blunt
And it was pretty damning but it really didnt do anything for the numbers.  This is Missouri which isnt much of a bellwether anymore in a big GOP year is going to go GOP.

Carnahan can try again for something.

[ Parent ]
Any explanation for that?
Missouri's clearly moved to the right over the last ten years or so... or at least, stayed in the same place while the rest of the country was moving left.  Think that has to do with the heavy growth (mostly Republicans) in SW Missouri?

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
I can answer some of that...
my mom and her family are from the midwest...specifically St. Louis and Kansas City.  So many people have left or do not move there who would bring more "progressive" thinking to the state.  Industry has dried up in a major way in that state.

Each time I go to St. Louis to visit family, I am shocked by how that place has declined.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
I don't think St. Louis is still declining
Population is stable and the overall metro area's economy is no worse than it is nationally. Moreover, the St. Louis area - even much of St. Louis County - has gotten substantially more liberal. The County used to be largely Republican - these days it goes heavily Democratic in presidential elections.

The bigger problem is that the bluing of the St. Louis area has been more than offset by the hard swing to the right in the rural areas of the state. And the KC area is also more politically conservative than St. Louis.

There's still enough of an urban population to prevent the state from becoming full-on Republican, and at the state level Democrats should still (usually) do okay, with presidential candidates occassionally being able to win it. But its days as a bellwether are over -- it's a clear Republican-leaning state.  

[ Parent ]
St. Louis appears to be revitalizing
St. Louis seems to have stopped its population loss, per recent Census figures, and it undergoing a bit of the proverbial renewal.

The big problem for D's in Missouri is that the rural parts of the state have turned deep red.

[ Parent ]
yes
southeast missouri is very similar to northeastern arkznsas/w. kentucky. enough said

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Missouri is basically Arkansas...
...plus St. Louis and Kansas City. The St. Louis area, as I said above, has actually shifted pretty decisively towards the Dems, but it isn't enough to offset the defections in the rural parts of the state.  
[ Parent ]
Oh It's Far Worse Than That......
Arkansas' Democratic tradition runs a lot deeper than anyplace in rural Missouri, and in just about every election an Arkansas county map will be considerably bluer than a Missouri county map.  Given Missouri's trendline of the last decade, a better comparison would be that Missouri is basically Kansas plus St. Louis and Kansas City.
[ Parent ]
Rural Midwest Desertion of Dems.....
There's a line well above the Mason-Dixon line that runs from about Des Moines to Peoria to Indianapolis to Columbus.  During the Clinton era, this region was a battleground.  Since then it's more fiercely to the right, and unfortunately that includes almost every square inch of rural Missouri.  If metropolitan St. Louis hadn't shifted significantly to the left over the past decade, Missouri would be as hostile turf as is Kentucky.  I don't quite understand why this specific group of Midwesterners and border state residents have become so mercilessly hostile to Democrats even since 2000.
[ Parent ]
Same story as in the Rust Belt
and northern Plains.  An ongoing and relentless decline in jobs in manufacturing and agriculture.  A smaller number of jobs arise in small industries and service jobs and working for government agencies.

A good chunk of the young adults leave- the liberal ones are generally more mobile- and population stagnates and net ages.  (And eventually starts to decline.)  The existing political divisions pretty much lock in, a status quo forms and with it a patronage or spoils system that outsiders are rarely let into.  And both sides get used to it.  Companies show up, look around but if they have standards just don't find enough adequate workers or morale or sufficient infrastructure or cooperation by local government, and go elsewhere.

[ Parent ]
One Of The Best Descriptions I've Come Across....
I grew up in rural Minnesota.  It's not quite that bad there....but too many things you cited sound way too familiar to me.
[ Parent ]
Can anyone find the Fundraising numbers
for Joe Miller and Murkowski? Has Miller disclosed it yet?
CNN/Time is out
Here's the Time link: http://www.time.com/time/polit...

GOP leads:
Sharron Angle and Pat Toomey both lead 49-45.
Ken Buck leads 47-46.
Rand Paul leads 50-43.
Corbett leads 52-45.

Dem leads:
Barbara Boxer leads 50-45.
Jerry Brown leads 51-44.
Hickenlooper leads 51-37-10.

Twitter/Taniel

Twitter.com/Taniel

Here are the internals
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2...

They didn't test early voters, for some infuriating reason.  

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
Nevada isn't making sense
Public polling is showing Angle starting to pull away from Reid, but the evidence from the early vote and the private polls don't corroborate that at all.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
NV internals
Especially considering Reid is winning 11% of Republicans, Angle winning 3% of Democrats. So Dems' raw advantage among early voters gives them a little cushion going into independents.  

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
I'd like to know
who the 3% of Democrats supporting Sharron Angle are.  If you support Sharron Angle, I think you lose your right to call yourself a Democrat.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
dixiecrats perhaps?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I get the impression that there are some former southern Ds in NV
aka dixiecrats for Angle.
[ Parent ]
Frustrated with Reid?
Maybe they want Reid to lose to get Schumer or Durbin as Majority Leader?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
How do you know of these internals?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Sorry I wasn't clear
I meant those are the internals of the CNN poll, which I had just linked above.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
And Angle's WINNING?
That's weird. Very unusual to lead and crossover vote in a swing state and still lose.

How badly do they say Reid's losing Indies? That will tell me whether to believe this poll or not.

[ Parent ]
CNN says Angle +15 among Indies...
I say they're inhaling too much crystal meth. Even Angle's cheerleaders at The R-J only had her +8 among Indies. And even if this is true, the numbers still don't add up properly.

Seriously, I think all the public pollsters are high on something. Reid's AND Angle's internal polls can't be this far off.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
CNN's poll is pure CRAP!
Ralston just called BS on them. No way Angle wins statewide if she's losing Clark AND Washoe. The rurals hate Reid, yes, but there aren't enough votes to override Clark AND Washoe.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Ralston . . .
to be fair, calls crap on EVERY poll that shows Reid trailing.  He's a total cheerleader for the Reids.  

If Angle does win, he's gonna look bad come Wednesday.    

[ Parent ]
No, he's NOT!
Do you read Ralston regularly? He craps on both Reids whenever he feels like it. He gets caught up so much on the political draa that he often ignores any discussion on sound policy. He's called Rory Reid's campaign "dead" for some time, and he was sounding the alarm on the early vote #s yesterday DESPITE knowing most early vote sites were in GOP strongholds for the last 2 days.

I'm so sick & tired of the tired old teabagger accusations of Ralston being some "Reid flak". Whoever says that obviously knows nothing about Nevada politics.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
He'll look fine
if Angle wins. In fact, his blog posts the couple days re: EV turnout have not been friendly to Democrats.

If she wins by a LOT, then he'll look bad. What he's saying is that the race is still extremely close. And it sounds like that's what he's hearing from both camps.

[ Parent ]
If Reid wins, you and certain other of your fellow Republicans here will look bad come Wednesday......
Ralston actually has sources who share better info than you or I have.  He called b.s. earlier today on Rasmussen's NV-Gov poll, too, which like this one had Sandoval up 24; he said private polling shows it's half that.  On NV-Sen, Reid's private polling has him up mid-single digits, and GOP private polling says it's "literally a dead heat."

All the tea leaves out there are worth something, and we read them in totality and decide what to believe.  But Ralston has better information, period, than the tea leaves we all rely on.

Your complaint of Ralston "cheerleading" is just baseless partisan whining.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Whoa
Ralston's a professional forecaster, getting elections like this right is his job and all of Nevada is watching him. The commenters on here are amateurs who (for the most part) spend a couple hours a day looking at polls and tell you what their gut and the numbers tell them. Ralston's got a whole lot more riding on this--if I'm wrong I'm going to look like......an amateur out of stater with a hobby.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Correct, which supports my point that complaining that Ralston...
...is cheerleading for Reid is nothing more than partisan whining.

Ralston's brand is himself, and it depends on people respecting his work.  And he knows that.  So accusing him of cheerleading is just sour grapes even before the election.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The CA-Sen polling is so irratic
Where art thou, Field?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
How is the polling irratic?
It is showing a strong consistent lead for Boxer. Boxer appears to be on the verge of running away with the race.
[ Parent ]
Its very erratic
We've had 3 pollsters show Boxer around +8-9. We've had a bunch showing her up 4-5, and some showing her tied. Thats erratic.
[ Parent ]
Uh, no, we don't have "some" showing her tied, we have ONE released GOP internal......
It's very clear Boxer leads by some single-digit number of points.  That partisan GOP poll is not corroborated.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
We have
Reuters and Rasmussen.  
[ Parent ]
Those are already quite stale... n/t

[ Parent ]
GradyDem said
Field will be out tomorrow or Friday. I'm guessing Gov tomorrow, Sen Friday. They have been releasing Gov one day before Sen this year.  
[ Parent ]
O'Donnell threatened to sue radio station
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

(CNN) - Christine O'Donnell, the surprise Tea Party-backed Senate candidate in Delaware, threatened to sue a local radio station if it did not turn over a videotape of an interview it conducted with her.

O'Donnell's campaign later apologized to the station for the threat, WDEL reports.



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
You know, I hope she ends up doing something fabulous after this
She really did us a solid and I wish her well.  :)
[ Parent ]
What a delight she has turned out to be...
But remember "I am you"  "I would do what you would do"

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
CNN/Time (Final?) Polls: Angle Surges Outside MoE, CO tied, Boxer +5
http://www.time.com/time/polit...
NV-Sen:
Angle 49%
Reid: 45%
MoE 3.5%

CO-Sen
Buck 47
Bennet 46

CO-Gov
Hickenlooper 51
Tancredo 37
Maes 10
Polls can't agree here, which is surprising since they all say the same thing on the Sen race

PA-Sen
Toomey 49
Sestak 45

PA-Gov
Corbett 52
Onorato 45

CA-Sen
Boxer 50
Fiorina 45

CA-Gov
Brown 51
Whitman 44

Prop 19
No 53
Yes 45

KY-Sen
Paul 50
Conway 43

That isn't outside MoE
and CNN/Time polls of Nevada have been problematic.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I havent done more than read through them once or twice
But I've found most of their polls not quite on the money.
[ Parent ]
Yes, this is such a common mistake
With 3.5, it would have to be over 7 to be outside.
[ Parent ]
What's embarrassing is that Jeremy Jacobs of Hotline On Call reported it this way......
He specifically is covering campaigns for a living, he should know better.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Know better
I saw a PA state college poly sci prof make the same error in an article a couple of weeks ago.  Makes you wonder.
[ Parent ]
Thats where I got it from
My original link had been that, but I changed it at the last minute since the Time.Com link had all the results. Most media does report it that way, and I am guilty of thinking the MoE is just one way.  
[ Parent ]
It's actually not outside of the margin of error for NV-Sen
MoE is often misrepresented and it works this way

Angle 52.5%-49%,-46.5%
Reid   48.5%-45%-42.5%

So it's just barely inside the 3.5% MoE.

[ Parent ]
THANK YOU!!!!!
Man, I hate how no one seems to understand MOE, not even many PSCI professors seem to know what it really means.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Not great, not terrible
All the senate races, save Kentucky, are there for the winning.  Nice number for Hickenlooper.
[ Parent ]
CNN is seeing indies
break for Buck (49/36) strongly. Most other polls I've seen show indies splitting evenly or breaking for Bennet.

For instance, in two of the three most recent polls in Colorado, Bennet leads in this sub-group 46/44 (SUSA) and 28/21 (Reuters). In the third (PPP), he's behind by just 2 (44/46).

They also show bigger indie splits for the Republican in PA and NV than many other polls I've seen (though this is just from memory).

[ Parent ]
Jon Ralston seems to think they're pretty fishy
He just tweeted: "CNN poll also shows Sandoval up 24 points. Crazy. Like Rasmussen. Twice what even GOPers think it is. Model is screwy. Just like last time."

If he's right, that's pretty good news for Bennet, Reid, etc.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
More on his stream:
http://twitter.com/RalstonFlash

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It appears to me CNN is...
.. overestimating Independents (Unless they flock to the polls late) and the percentage of the total vote that comes from the rural counties.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
GOTV effort
I would assume that the GOTV efforts are getting registered Dems and Reps to the polls, while no one is getting Indies out now.  That's why Indy numbers are low for now.
[ Parent ]
actually...
check out the number of conservatives.  It doesn't say it outright, but you have Reid leading 93-6 with liberals and 71-21 with moderates, while Angle leads with conservatives 82-13.  And she's still up four overall.  Is it me, or is that a ton of conservative voters?  Past exit polls have shown moderates to be the majority ideology.

In Colorado, it's the same deal.  Bennet leads 90-7 with liberals and 60-31 with moderates.  Buck leads 81-12 with conservatives.  Past exit polls have shown moderates to be the majority ideology.

I understand more conservatives will show up this year, but I wonder if CNN is overestimating how much of the electorate will be conservative.

[ Parent ]
I just played with NV-Sen models again...
This time, plugging CNN's party internals into three possible turnout scenarios:

(Remember, CNN says Reid is winning 96% of Dems, 10% of GOP, and 38% and everyone else, while Angle is winning 3% of Dems, 82% of GOP, and 53% of everyone else.)

Worst Case:

43% GOP, 42% Dems, 15% Nonpartisan & Others

50.32% Reid
44.47% Angle

Minor Improvement:

43.5% Dem, 41.5% GOP, 15% Nonpartisan & Others

51.61% Reid
43.29% Angle

Strong Close:

44.5% Dem, 40.5% GOP, 15% Nonpartisan & Others

52.47% Reid
42.50% Angle

So if CNN's internals are to be believed at all, Reid is doing much stronger than they and most everyone else in DC expects!


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
NV Sen- Early voting and the CNN internals
FWIW if you plug the Nevada early voting numbers so far into the partisan breakdown numbers in the CNN poll Reid leads by 6+ points.

So far about 112,200 Democrats, 111,700 Republicans and 40,500 Independents have voted (I estimated the week 2 partisan breakdown in in the rural counties using the week 1 percentages). Using those numbers Reid would lead by 6.8% in the full ballot poll and 6.2% in the 2 party poll.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Did you remember to include...
...absentee ballots?
[ Parent ]
No
Since I have not seen absentee numbers from anywhere but Clark county they are not included. Dems are up 2095 in Clark county absentee's if you want to add that in.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
The Only Solace For Reid.....
...is that Democrats have been overperforming polls there for at least a decade now, albeit primarily in Presidential years.  Nobody expect a 12-point Obama landslide in 2008.  Gore and Kerry were much closer than final polls showed in 2000 and 2004.  And even the Clinton team was surprised they pulled out Nevada back in 1992.  Reid better hope that one more time the polls in Nevada are too generous to Republicans.
[ Parent ]
Ralston plugged in CNN's internals...
Into current early voting turnout. If CNN's numbers on how Dems, Reeps, and others are voting are to be believed, Reid is up 8%!

It just goes to show how screwy these public polls are.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
That's consistent all over the country
Public polls continue to assert a simply massive no-show rate for Democrats (and especially Obama voters where that data is available).  We see all across the country  (Iowa, NV, PA, NC...) that this is simply not happening.  Instead turnout and absentee requests are all within a very normal range.

Democrats will win or lose based on people changing their minds from 2008, or not.  They are not going to lose because of some enormous no-show movement.

Registered voter polls have traditionally been more accurate than likely voter ones, but no matter what, the biggest loser this year is the polling profession which has gone from a bunch of scientists to a bunch of alchemists.

[ Parent ]
From your lips...
to God's ears...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Agree with two Caveats
Look at 18-29 year olds in NC. They are less than 5% of early voters, when they were 18% in 2008. Older Democrats are turning up reliably, but the new 2008 voters are not. Hence the return to 2006 numbers for the Democrats.

The problem is going to be that Republicans are up about 5% on average from that same point.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Disagree on one point...
At this point, IMHO many races like ours ARE coming down to turnout. The only way Angle wins here is if Dem turnout is worse than 2006. If Dem turnout is better than 2006, Reid wins. Simple as that.

Few folks left are undecided. We're hardly seeing any Obama voters embrace Angle (why would they??!!), but there are some McCain voters holding their noses for Reid.

Otherwise, you're very much spot on. I have a feeling a whole lot of public polling outfits will have to eat a hell of a lot of crow come November 3.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I suspect
a large part of the problem is that it can be harder to predict the results of races that might come down to tenths of percentage points or less. It honestly wouldn't shock me to see several dozen races come down to just a few hundred votes or less on election day.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Early voting data interpreted by Ambinder
based on a DNC memo, ref http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

Seems especially encouraging for WV, IL, and OH (aka Manchin, Alexi G, and Strickland), among others.

(The original memo is in docx format, and I don't feel like converting into  something readable by OpenOffice.org right now....)

Forgive me for beating a dead horse here, but
I've said that if you start from a loss of 50 seats, which seems to be an average (give or take a few seats) of what some are predicting, figure we pick up at least four, and then somehow save two from Pennsylvania, Illinois, New York, and Ohio, we keep the House. Or maybe it's only from those states and we somehow keep a seat that would be among those likely to fall first in Colorado or New Hampshire or California or New Mexico. And it becomes a little harder if your baseline is, say, 55 seats.

You can play with the numbers any way you'd like, but you can see how, unless things are really bad, it's not that insane to think the Democrats can hold on to the House, in only barely.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
DE-Sen
I wandered over to RedState which I do on occasion and they have linked to two polls that show O'Donnell only down by six.  I think they are total BS, but am giving the link just in case anybody wants to look at the numbers and such.  I see no path for victory for her and would be shocked if she came within 10% of the vote.

http://paracom.paramountcommun...

http://theconservativejournal....

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

If she is that close...
I will:

1. eat my stilletos
2. move to Spain or the US Virgin Islands
3. really come to grips with the fact that "Rome is burning" and the "idiots are running the asylum."

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
I agree they are BS
Then again, The TPX poll a week before the primary showed her down by 7, and we all know what happened there. I do think she will get more than 35% though. Possibly up to the 40s.  
[ Parent ]
Low 40's
Low 40's is what I am guessing.  I also do expect her to win the southern two counties so next time she says that she did, it won't be a lie like it was when she claimed that before.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
The
ads Fred Davis produced for her campaign are very good to be honest. Too bad O'Donnell is still a nut no (sane) person would vote for.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Let
me elaborate on that, the attack ads Fred Davis produced for the O'Donnell campaign are some of the best I've seen, the ones where she speaks to the camera....uh no. (You're still a witch in my book Christine :-)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
LOL
One's three days old, with no attribution.  The other was done by the conservative journal.  They've must have polled their readership.
[ Parent ]
RV/LV Gap
Huge gaps in the RV/LV in the CNN/Time Polls.

Boxer/Brown have huge double digit leads among registered voters.  Bennet/Sestak/Buck all ahead among the RV sample.  I guess it all depends on GOTV on election day.

Reid is up in that group too n/t

[ Parent ]
Whoa
Bennett AND Buck are ahead with RV's? This cycle gets stranger and stranger...
[ Parent ]
Bennet's up with registered voters,
Buck is up with voters who own recreational vehicles. ;-)
[ Parent ]
Meant Reid
Yup meant Reid ahead not Buck
[ Parent ]
I figured
But I just had to mess with ya.  
[ Parent ]
HAha
He probably is up BIG with those RV's too!
I was referring to this though: "Bennet/Sestak/Buck all ahead among the RV sample"
[ Parent ]
Yes! I was following ya... :) n/t

[ Parent ]
Rain
I read this morning that rain is forecast for much of the country on Election Day, btw.  But I trust weathermen even less than pollsters, so we'll see.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I bet you got that crap from...
the Hill newspaper which has officially jumped the shark by consulting the Farmer's Almanac and calling it "bad for Democrats."  Because we have more seniors...not according to these pollls.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Don't remember
Honestly don't remember where I read it, but for sure I expect older voters to be more GOP this cycle.  It would take a hurricane to stop me from voting, though.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I love voting
I vote when the primary is uncontested. ITs just so fun! I would even go in a hurricane (unless of course they shut down voting)
BTW, here's weather maps for Tuesday:
8 EDT, around when most polls are open:
http://www.wunderground.com/nd...

2 EDT
http://www.wunderground.com/nd...

8 EDT, most polls closing
http://www.wunderground.com/nd...

Looks like rain in the East and Northwest. Should not affect turnout in WA or OR, since they are mail in. If it rains in San Francisco, what does that do to turnout?  

[ Parent ]
Doubt rain in SF would hurt turnout much
The city is pretty well accustomed to lousy weather, and I figure Prop 19 sentiment will be pretty strong in the city so that will turn out the vote.

The forecast calls for sun on Tuesday so it's probably a moot point.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Rain won't
matter that much. Well the only thing that might dampen enthusiasm in SF is the Rangers clinching the World Series before election day. (Btw Rick Perry made his wager with....Meg Whitman. Schwarzenegger and Perry must not see eye to eye these days.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Thats what I thought
Him and Arnold probably hate each other. I also found it kind of strange he was making a wager with a candidate. Usually its gov-gov, not gov-gov candidate.  
[ Parent ]
The idea is for it to be 3-2 Giants after Monday's game
where SF fans will have seen George W Bush for three straight days.  Tuesday is an off day so they can join in to stick it to Bush at the polls one more time too.
[ Parent ]
We worry about blizzards here
There was a small snowstorm the day before the MA-Sen election in January and a big one two days after. About a week before the election, there was reason to worry that there would be significant amounts of snow on Tuesday and that would dampen turnout. The lawyers on both sides were already gearing up for a fight in case the governor declared a state of emergency, which could force the polls to close and the election to be done over at a later date.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I wonder how it will affect turnout
But as you said, it wil probably be around 70 degrees and sunny if they say rain on election day.  
[ Parent ]
Made me look
Just checked the 10 day forecast from weather.com for some major cities -- Seattle, LA, Denver, Chicago, NYC, Atlanta

the only area where rain is forecast on Election Day is Seattle, though there's a chance of thundershowers in Atlanta.

Excellent D turnout weather.

[ Parent ]
Rain
Rain in Seattle?  How strange.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Sick and tired of these RV who won't vote
Why the hell do they bother registering for?
[ Parent ]
Agreed


41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
They
They are hoping to get picked for jury duty.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I agree, anyone who doesn't vote is a big idiot.
I still remember my first vote (Prez Primary, 2008) and it gave me a small sense of power and satisfaction.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I remember mine as well...
it was a midterm for congress. This was a very long time ago. I lived in New Orleans at the time but I was in the part of the city near the suburbs represented by Bob Livingston.  I refused to vote for him even though he was not opposed at the time.  I would have voted for the crook (Jefferson)if he was in my district.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
You lived
Where I used to live. I plan on moving back there in a few years. You were in Metairie?  
[ Parent ]
No, I used to live in Lakeview...
Bob Livingston was the congressman for Lakeview as well at the time. I moved to DC 15 years ago after law school and never looked back.  I went to Tulane and Loyola. My brother and parents now live in MD. Every now and then, I read NOLA.com to find out about La news and that is how I found out about the budget cuts to the public colleges.

I don't think that I could ever go back to live.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
Thats a nice area
I would love to live in Lakeview. The budget cuts do suck though for schools. Jindal will probably face a challenge from someone younger (Caroline Fayard??) next year to get those young votes.  
[ Parent ]
I used to love Lakeview...
It is such a great area.  

But Jindal's cuts are pretty cynical and have nothing to do with LA and everything do with his postioning himself in the national Republican party.  The universities, nurses and doctors are all mad with him because his biggest cuts are to public schools and public health.  LSU contends that they will never be able to be a worldclass university that competes.
All the papers(even the conservative ones) complained about the cuts and mentioned him flying off to raise money in PA after he announced them.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
I just voted for the first time about
a week ago and I felt and still feel very "accomplished". I wish everyone felt the way I did.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I did when I voted
for the first time in 2002.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Same (in 2008)


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Of course
If you want to go there, there's also Nate Silver's observation that, historically speaking, RV numbers have actually been more accurate than LV's, by a small margin!

Just sayin.

[ Parent ]
New House Polls
We'll get at 6pm, a new MI-7 poll from WLNS, MN-1 from KSTP, FL-25 tomorrow morning from Susquehanna.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
First two are probably SUSA
Since they've cornered the market on cheap, local TV-station-sponsored polls.

Expect more conservative-loving young folks saying the R's gonna win!

And no minorities anywhere.

[ Parent ]
Schauer up 7
50-43.

http://www.wlns.com/Global/sto...

Increasingly looking good for him.  I'm surprised.

[ Parent ]
Wow indeed
Huh. Gives a lie to the idea that the whole Repub wave thing is economy-related. That district (IIRC) has been devastated.

Probably more about how off-the-charts wacky the R is.

[ Parent ]
Walberg is birther-curious and expressed soft support for NAFTA.
Also, Schauer has a ton of money.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That whole birther and truther thing...
is completely wacky...I tried to argue with someone that, although I do not like Bush, I am fairly certain he did not have anything to do with 9-11.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
And SUSA can't poll MN at all. They have been
getting weird results for MN since 2008.  
[ Parent ]
SUSA and their crappy polls...
I looked at the internals of a few of them and the AA column was blank.  Whiskey Tango Foxtrot I could understand if this was NH but VA?

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
MN-1
SUSA has Walz up 50-41, up from 47-42.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
I think Walz has this now

[ Parent ]
Full poll
Walz 50
Demmer 41
Wilson (I) 5
Other/undecided 6

The Governors race in the 1st district.

Dayton 42
Emmer 41
Horner 13
Other/Undecided 5

Good news for Walz and good news for Dayton. For a Republican to win statewide in Minnesota they need win southern Minesota by a healthy margin.

No Link yet but I am sure it will be on KSTP TV's website later

http://www.kstp.com/index.shtml

BTW they will have polls out for the Governors race tomorrow and the 8th district Sunday.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
While I don't trust SUSA polls in MN, that is
still good news for Walz and Dayton.
[ Parent ]
Looking forward to FL-25
Democrats have made a heavy play for this seat while Republicans put up no defense.  $1.9M in attack ads from DCCC, America's Families First, and SEIU have been run against Rivera, no outside spending against Garcia.  Did the Republicans wave a white flag in this district?
[ Parent ]
Actually the SEIU
Is probably doing GOTV, not running ads, FWIW
[ Parent ]
This cycle is so depressing
Lets look forward to 2012

Any thoughts on whether Dave Freudenthal might challenge Barrasso in Wyoming?  I mean, if Walt Minnick could win in ID-01...

Snowe in Maine is pretty much DOA, there is no way she can survive a primary, who would be the best candidate to take that seat if it become open?

I have a feeling Brown is toast, even if Coakley somehow ran for that seat AGAIN.  I would personally like to see Mike Capuano run for that seat and win it.

Lieberman is DOA, and if Ned Lamont couldn't win the Gubernatorial primary, I think he probably wouldn't be that great a nominee.  I think Chris Murphy would be a good pick.

I think Kyl could be a good target, I don't know AZ well enough to have a good candidate on our side though

Ensign is in trouble, maybe Goodman could run for that seat?

Texas is interesting, is White doesn't win this year, I think he should TOTALLY run KBH's senate seat.  Does anyone remember if she is even retiring anymore?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Ensign
probably won't make it out the primary. The problem with Senate in 2012, is that we have 23 seats up to the GOP's 10.  
[ Parent ]
Well, its a problem from a purely numerical stand point
If you look at all the seats up in 2012, the only ones we should be worried about are the seats in Nebraska, Montana, Virginia and Missouri.

Everyone else won by fairly large margins and likely will easily be re-elected in a presidential year.

I think it may be similar to what happened this year, there weren't a lot of seats the GOP could flip this cycle in the senate, because a lot of them were snatched in 2004, or are relatively strong democratic states (CA, NY, CT, OR, WA, DE, and MD).  This puts dems in a good place come 2016, because there will be so many GOP held seats, we are bound to pick up some the loonies win this year (KY, MO, FL, ect)

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
2006 winning margins
Barbara Boxer won by a huge margin in 2004. She is in a tough race now. Patty Murray won by a huge margin in 2004. She is in a tough race now. Feingold won by a comfortable margin in 2004. He is headed for a comfortable defeat now. Nelson in FL won by a big margin, but he had a nuts opponent. In a presidential year, he should have a close race. Plus, there are also potential open seats, like WI, NM, ND, CA, and HI. Bob Menendez has crappy approvals in DE and won a close race in a very Dem year in a very Dem state and may be facing a rematch. Casey may or may not be in good shape. PPP sometimes says good, sometimes says he has upside down approvals. I guess it depends on his opponent and Obama's strength there. Brown (OH) has not been very popular, is a little liberal for Ohio, and the Reps have a deep bench here. Reps also have a good bench in MI and Stabenow has had low approvals.  
[ Parent ]
Menendez is not DE but NJ
I think trying to speculate on 2012 is crazy.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Agreed....
A lot of people who were speculating on our 2010 Senate prospects 18 months ago look very foolish today.  I remember in the spring of 2009 when I actually had some smug Daily Kos posters laughing hysterically at my premise that Blanche Lincoln would be in some real trouble in Arkansas.  Virtually nobody could even conceive such a scenario given how weak the bench was in Arkansas...yet here we are.  Predicting Senate elections two years in advance is always folly.
[ Parent ]
It is pointless
But fun!
[ Parent ]
Woops

[ Parent ]
Your point isn't
entirely ridiculous, but there's a big difference between someone like Diane Feinstein or and someone like Jim Webb when it comes to incumbent senators. We can't tell what the conditions will be like, but whether they are favorable or unfavorable to us, running as an incumbent in a blue to deep blue state does give you a leg up. You also need to figure that most elected officials have shitty approval ratings right now, but that means almost nothing two years before the next election.

And perhaps more than anything, you need to consider exactly which Republicans these guys will be facing. Will someone like Debbie Stabenow face a Rob Portman or will she face a Christine O'Donnell or Joe Miller? Something tells me that the greater the gains, the more emboldened the Teabaggers in the Republican party will feel to challenge the establishment picks.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't want White in 2012
If he loses this year, he'll perform about the same in a neutral 2012 for Federal office. Let him rematch Perry in 2014 with a better environment.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
KBH may be retiring
She is not sure now. Even if she runs, I doubt she is the party's nominee. TX Rail Road Commissioner Michael Williams is running, and, if they still exist then, he will probably have TPX support and Jim DeMint has already endorsed him (for when it was going to be a 2010 special election). If he won, he would be the only African American Republican senator.

WY- I doubt Frudenthal would get anywhere towards federal office in WY, against someone pretty popular like Barrasso. If he wanted fed office, his best shot was House in 2008.

ME- Tom Allen, Chellie Pingree, and Mike Michaud would all be good candidates. Snowe might be able to win a divided Republican primary, and she is close to Paul LePage, a Tea PArty candidate for Gov who may win.

MA- Brown is no where near dead. He is more popular than Obama and Kerry in MA

CT- Hope Jodi Rell runs. 3-ways are always fun. Of course, If we pick up 9 seats Tuesday, I would not surprised to see Lieberman run as a Republican

AZ- Two words scare the shit out of Republicans for this race: Gabrielle Giffords

NV-Ensign has not been raising money (See this Fix article today: http://voices.washingtonpost.c... and seems unlikely to run or be primaried by Heller, Lowden, Tarkanian, or Chachas. Goodman is an independent anyway. Shelley Berkely is a much more likely candidate

[ Parent ]
you can eliminate "Republican" from your sentence...
"If he won, he would be the only African American senator."

Unless something changes before then...

[ Parent ]
Thats true
That would be ironic, the only African American senator being a Republican. By 2015, there could potentially be 3, or more. In SC, Tim Scott would be smart to primary Graham in 2014, and in 2012, if Rick Scott wins, I expect the NRSC to aggressively recruit Lt. Gov Jenniffer Carrol.  
[ Parent ]
If Ryan Frazier wins in CO-07
He would be a strong candidate against Mark Udall in 2014.

Williams, Scott, Carrol, and Frazier would make one heck of a Senatorial Black Caucus. There have never been two African American Senators serving simultaneously, so there has never been a need for an SBC.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Wow
And we'd have four Republican African American senators at one time. If Frazier had stayed in the Sen race this year, I think he would be on his way to being Senator. He is much less gaffe prone than Buck, and with a fight between Buck and Norton (they probably would have largely ignored him with his weaker fundraising) he probably could have snuck through due to Buck's gaffes.  
[ Parent ]
No way
Frazier had no money at all, until the state party chair (with help from DC) arranged for a bunch of high rolling donors to send him a few hundred thousand (and who couldn't care less about CO-7) in exchange for dropping out of the Senate race. If he had stayed in, he literally would have had a few tens of thousands to try and beat Buck and his outside millions, and Norton.
[ Parent ]
He had raised
Around 350k before dropping out. Not huge, but Buck barely raised a million in the primary.  
[ Parent ]
Nope
Most of that came right at the end of his candidacy, when he was in discussions about dropping out. Dude's a City Councilman and charter school director. No money connections.
[ Parent ]
If anything, that should motivate Dems to improve their recruitment...
... among blacks. I agree that for Democrats it would be embarassing to have the only AA senators be Republicans.

There are a host of reasons why it's difficult for blacks to get elected to the Senate, but I do think the national Democrats have generally been reluctant to support AA candidates in hotly-contested seats out of electability fears. (Though to be fair, there often is a shortage of prominent AA pols who aren't urban pols.)

[ Parent ]
There's also
a shortage of prominent AA pols who aren't from AA-majority districts.  It doesn't help when running for statewide office if you've tailored a voting record to suit an AA-majority constituency.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Well, that was sort of my point
There are some clear examples of Dems not supporting potentially viable black candidates for higher office. A clear example would be Maryland, 2006, where the DSCC supported Ben Cardin over Kweisi Mfume. To be fair, Mfume had some baggage, but in such a Democratic year in a Democratic state, he almost certainly would have won.

Did they even try to recruit Dennis Archer for the MI seat in 2000? He would have been viable.

Although, to be fair, as you point out there is a shortage of AA pols from non-VRA districts, which leaves a small pool. And some prominent AA's have often refused to run: the DSCC tried to recruit (former Denver Mayor) Wellington Webb in CO in 2002, but he declined. For the 2000 NY Senate election, the DSCC tried to recruit H. Carl McCall - his refusal to enter the race spawned the panic that led to drafting Hillary.

Looking forward, what black Democrats are potential future senators? Maybe if Cory Booker decides not to challenge Christie, he could run to succeed Lautenberg in 2014. Beyond that, I'm drawing a blank. If Mark Kirk wins in IL this year, then you may see a black candidate emerge there to reclaim "Obama's seat" in 2016. If Chris Murphy loses this year and opts not to challenge Lieberman, then perhaps CT's Treasurer, Denise Napier, could run for the seat.  

[ Parent ]
The issue for AA Dems...
and this is what hurts Booker is that an AA Dem in a state must be able to pull at least 90% of the AA vote to offset other potential losses.  And the candidate must get AA voters to the polls at a rate that is almost the level of their population percentage.  I read this somewhere that this is formula they look for in deciding who to promote. In MD, how about the Lt. Gov?

Now, how this relates to Booker is that the AA's in Newark do not really like him all that much.  Same problem that M. Nutter has in Philly.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
In MD, Anthony Brown
... who actually has a background freakishly similar to Barack Obama's will probably run for governor in 2014, because neither Mikulski nor Cardin look likely to retire anytime soon.

But that said, I remember Nate Silver shortly after '08 tried to model the states that were most likely to elect an AA to statewide office (namely, the Senate) - he identified Maryland and Illinois as the likeliest. The point was that both had large black populations and were heavily Democratic. Obviously, IL has shown that to be true, since 3/4 black senators (and 2/3 elected ones) since Reconstruction have held the SAME Senate seat.

Someone like Donna Edwards would be a superb candidate for senator from Maryland should Mikulski retire in 2016 or Cardin step down in 2018.  

[ Parent ]
Also, to bring up another question...
... how disliked IS Booker among Newark voters? I know his reputation locally is more mixed than his glowing national press coverage, but I didn't have the impression he was UNPOPULAR.

And remember that Obama wasn't particularly popular among AA voters as a state senator, but once he became a statewide candidate his stock went up. (Though, to be fair, he also did substantial outreach and had a very progressive record in the IL State Senate.)  

[ Parent ]
Pretty disliked...
It was not AA votes that put him over...He is unpopular. I have a link somewhere to an article. I am going to find it in a minute about his election.  The Christie thing has made it even worse.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
If there is a God...
Rep. Murphy will win...if Democrats lose that seat, they're in deep shit.

As to the larger point of lukewarm support for black candidates, I completely agree. Another pair of names I'll throw out there: Fred Johnson, the Democrat running in MI-02; and Dan Seals, the presumptive next representative of IL-10.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
"for Democrats it would be embarassing to have the only AA senators be Republicans"
Why?  Are Republicans embarrassed that they have so few minorities representing them?  They seem to be pretty proud of that as far as I can tell.
[ Parent ]
As a party that represents most AA voters...
... Democrats should cultivate AA talent more frequently. I realize that may seem absurd when the (Democratic) President of the United States is black, but if you look at the number of African-American politicians at the highest levels of U.S. electoral politics, you realize he really is even at this stage a big exception.

I understand why minority Republicans are able to go quite far despite being fewer in number: by-and-large, even if some Republicans have racial or ethnic prejudices, they're usually fine voting for an ethnic or racial minority who agrees with their views, and minority Republicans can (theoretically) do well among swing voters. Minority Democrats have to contend with stereotypes and prejudices about "handouts," etc.

But it's still embarrassing to be a party that earns 90% of the black vote, yet is unable to elect a black senator.  

[ Parent ]
Well, Democrats elected a black Senator just four years ago.
Hmm, I wonder what happened to that guy...

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
No I know
I addressed that elsewhere. I just feel that Obama showed that we can elect black candidates elsewhere and we really should try and cultivate black talent for statewide races. What bothers me is I don't really see that anywhere - there don't seem to be many viable black candidates from the Democratic Party in the next few years. (Anthony Brown and Cory Booker are two, although their sights are probably on the governor's mansions.)
[ Parent ]
It still would not change the way...
we see the GOP.  Unless they stand up to their "demons" Rush etc, there is no way.  We are a loyal voting block.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
I know, it would just be embarrassing
It's crazy that even as we elect a black president, there are going to be zero black senators. (A lot of that unfortunately, has to do with the makeup of the states, and the fact that even today the largest black communities are in the South, where racially-polarized voting makes it hard for blacks to get elected statewide.)

I felt even in 2004 that what was so extraordinary about Obama's rise was that, judging by AA representation at the highest levels of politics, his election was way ahead of where it "should have been". Prior to Obama's rise, I would have expected a black president maybe 20 years from now, as only by the 2000s was racial polarization dropping enough to start seeing blacks make credible bids for higher governor and senator. I figured it would only happen when there were, say, 3-4 black governors and a handful of black senators serving.  

[ Parent ]
er... 2008
First line of second para. should read "2008" not 2004.  
[ Parent ]
I agree about Michael Williams
IIRC, Newt Gingrich also endorsed him for the hypothetical special election.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
He did
I wouldn't be surprised to see Perry even endorse him. Not too much good blood between him and KBH...
[ Parent ]
Oh, definitely
The thing is, I imagine Debra Medina may want to run too, and that could give KBH the opening she needs to prevail with 40% of the vote.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
That didn't work too well for KBH this year
I think she would retire if faced with a strong primary challenge. Her legacy has already taken a hit from her failed gubernatorial bid this year, and I don't think she'd want to risk going out as a Senate loser. Who knows, maybe she'll run for governor again in 2014.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
She wil be
71 in 2014.  
[ Parent ]
Ben Nelson is gone too
after '12.  He utterly tanked in Nebraska this year to Lieberman level (non)approvals.  Did it to himself, frankly.

I think Diane Feinstein retires in '12.  We might get to watch  eMeg II: The Second Setting Of Bundles Of Money On Fire.

One of these years the major Democratic organizations will finally get down to business in Arizona and flip it à la Nevada or Colorado.  I just wish I knew when or what it's going to take to light a fire under their butts about it.


[ Parent ]
I dunno if Feinstein retires. She's 77, but she doesn't seem to be losing it.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Not quite Lieberman levels, but yeah.
Still, who knows was that race will be like.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Forecasting two years out is close to impossible
Remember that back in the fall of '08, the CW was that Dems would GAIN seats in the Senate - virtually none of the Dem incumbents were seen as vulnerable, and the subsequent wave of Republican retirements in swing states seemed to portend a lot of potential Dem pickups.

Obviously... that's not happening.

From a very early vantage point, I would think that ME, MA, NV, and maybe AZ could be competitive Republican-held seats. If Lugar retires or is tea-bagged, then IN is potentially winnable with the right candidate. On the Dem side, PA, OH, WV, MI, MO, MT, FL, and NE are all potential flips for the Republicans. The potential saving grace for Dems are that most are in swing states, so IF Obama wins reelection, he'll probably carry most of those states which, along with the advantages of incumbency, should carry them to victory.

I also think Dems may have to deal with retirements in CA and WI. In CA, Jackie Speier or even Antonio Villaraigosa may run, while in WI, Ron Kind has long been viewed as heir apparent.  

[ Parent ]
WI
What happens in the (unlikely, but possible) event Kind loses this year? Who is frontrunner then? Could Baldwin be elected statewide? Also, in CA, what kind of a candidate do ya'll think Mary Bono Mack would make? She is moderate enough for CA, but can she raise the money?
[ Parent ]
I highly doubt any Republican can win in CA in a presidential year...
... esp. if they can't defeat Boxer this year (though we'll see what happens next Tuesday).

I'm not current enough on WI politics to know who'd be in line for the nomination should Kind lose. But would he even be out of the picture? Losing a House race doesn't seem to actually set ambitious politicians back that much. Plenty of people who lost a congressional seat later came back to win higher office.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah thats true
But would it be normal to go back the next cycle to run for higher office? I think he could still be in the picture for 2012, especially if Dems don't have anybody else. I can't imagine their bench in WI is that weak though. They would have (by then) former Lt. Gov Barbara Lawton who seems like she might make a good candidate. The Republican side is also interesting. Ryan will likely be budget committee chairman. Would he give that up for one of his last shots at a promotion while he's young? Walker will probably serve as Governor for two terms, Johnson will probably run for re-election. If he ran and won in 2012, he would be timed perfectly for a 2016 presidential run. Plus, he appears to be saving for something. He has $2.85 million in the bank. If he doesn't run, we have a few back up plans, like JB Van Hollen (AG), Scott Walker's running mate (her name escapes me), and, if all else fails, Mark Neumann or Green.  
[ Parent ]
Mack could beat Newsom (or Angelides or maybe Brown)
She can't beat a Dem for federal office, assuming Boxer doesn't run again.

For Mack to win statewide she needs a terrible Democratic candidate -- and CA Democrats throw up stiffs all the time, so she has a shot, but it is tough to gear up for a run if you don't know who your opponent will be, which would be the case if DiFi finally finally finally goes away.

[ Parent ]
What im interested in
Is how would she do in the clusterfuck primary? We could possibly see upwards of 5 Dems run, so a moderate Republican could have a good shot at coming out the primary, but then thats where it gets bad. How can we beat a Dem with a strong record without much baggage, unless they are very bloodied and broke from the primary? The problem with the open primary is that the Republican would also have to spend a lot of money to make it through. Anyone know if she inherited $$ from Sonny?  
[ Parent ]
open primary
In your experience in Louisiana, do the parties usually try to clear the field a bit to avoid a situation where you have, say, 2 candidates from one party and 10 from the other and the 2 end up advancing to the general election even though they have fewer combined votes than the 10 candidates from the other party?

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I suspect if MBM were ever to run, it would've been vs. Boxer this year
Her district is too fragile in "generic Republican" hands for her to waste leaving it for an unwinnable race. Odds are, though, she'd be trumped, ala Tom Campbell when he ran against Feinstein. Even moderate Republicans struggle here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Do you think Campbell would be ahead of Boxer?
He always polled better than Fiorina. OTOH, he had funding problems, can be very undisciplined, and Boxer tends to close strong, so who knows?
[ Parent ]
I still think Campbell would've actually performed worse than Fiorina
Aside from his financial woes (keep in mind - he was so broke during the primary, his campaign went dark in the final two weeks), Campbell would've had real problems coalescing the GOP vote. The Tea Party seemed to genuinely dislike him during the primary, and even the Hannity crowd was very anti-Campbell. So, while he probably could've done 5% better among Democrats and moderates, many more conservatives may have bolted for a third-party right-winger or just stayed home.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Poor Tom Campbell
Had he won the '92 Republican Senate primary (instead of barely losing) he probably would have beaten Boxer that year. The state still wasn't solidly Democratic and despite electing both Feinstein and Clinton that year, it only barely elected Boxer over uber-RW'er Bruce Herschensohn.

To be fair, given CA's leftward lurch, he probably would have lost in either '98 or (more likely) '04. But who knows? Incumbency can be very powerful.  

[ Parent ]
If Campbell had been decently funded
He would have gotten a LOT more than 5% crossover.  A lot of California Democrats don't like Boxer personally, even if they agree with her politically.  Especially this year, they would have been open to a less threatening Republican like Campbell.  And as you yourself have pointed out, Republicans MUST win over some left-of-center voters (Dems and D-leaning independents) to win in California.

The money was the ONLY reason Fiorina was a better choice for the CA GOP.

[ Parent ]
I agree
If Campbell had a reputation as a dynamite fundraiser, he would have no doubt been a stronger candidate. But, someone who has to go dark in the last two weeks of a primary cannot afford to win a general election. Plus, with a Campbell/Whitman ticket, I think we could have seen terrible turnout from Republicans. I have talked to several who said they are only voting for Whitman because they are going to vote for Fiorina.  
[ Parent ]
Campbell is my favorite CA Republican
He used to be my congressman, and I've met the guy and he seems like a sane, decent guy. Partisan Democrat that I am, I probably would've still voted Boxer over him, but it would've been a close call, especially since he has a far more senatorial temperament than Boxer.

He and Richard Riordan are pretty much the only Republicans I'd consider voting for. It's a shame neither will ever win a statewide GOP primary.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Beware
He's a demon sheep!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Jungle primaries now, thanks to Prop 14
So theoretically you could see any two candidates in the GE.  If it had been in effect this year, we would have only narrowly avoided an R-on-R  general election for Attorney General (Cooley v. Eastman) even though in the aggregate Democratic candidates won an absolute majority of the vote.
[ Parent ]
Bono Mack
would probably be the best hope California Republicans have, though with the state having become so Democratic over the past 2 decades that Republicans do not win except under unusual circumstances, it is unlikely that she'd win, and we'd also likely pick up her House district in the process.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Not sure why everyone seems to think so highly of her
She's not all that visible to the state at large.  The kind of Republicans who can win in California are the ones who have succeeded with Democratic electorates in the past, and I think Ellipsis was onto something when he said Tom Campbell and Dick Riordan are the only Republicans he would consider.  Riordan is rich, and could expect a strong showing in a jungle primary by trading on his fairly positive reputation in Los Angeles.
[ Parent ]
Riordan is 80 yrs old
He's not running for senate.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Riordan's career is over
His best shot at higher office was the 2002 governor's race, and the CA GOP will always prefer unelectable far-right wackos to guys who can actually win. I thought he might win in the 2003 recall (he would've crushed the pathetic Cruz Bustamonte), but he dropped out in favor of Schwarzenegger (who also crushed the pathetic Bustamonte).

I think the CA GOP stepped out of their comfort zone this year to pick a moderate like Whitman. Since it looks like she'll do worse than the conservative Fiorina, I expect they'll decide that vindicates the old ways and return to picking unelectable far-right wackos.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Hey, I'm not complaining!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
WI
Assume Feingold loses narrowly and Kohl retires in 2012. Would it be better for the Dems to run him in the open seat and save Kind for a run against Johnson in 2016? Ordinarily it's harder to beat an incumbent than win an open seat, although it wouldn't surprise me if the R nominee in 2012 (Neumann or Ryan or Duffy or whoever) turns out to be a tougher opponent than Johnson in 2016. Johnson is probably going to be a terrible senator, as he has no political background, does not appear to know or care much at all about policy issues, and is probably too far right to win in any year but this one.    

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
For some reason...
... I sort of see Feingold, if he loses, either retiring from politics or running for governor.

Just a vague hunch. Nothing to support it.  

[ Parent ]
Be Careful on Maine and Massachusetts
Both states suffer from urban-blue state-itis. The lack of competitive races at the legislative and congressional level prevents deadwood from being cleaned out, with the consequence that while there is a large bench of prominent candidates, the actual number of good candidates is far less.

Maine is a good example. Too much is being read into this idea that Maine is gone if Snowe retires because it is a blue state, and we have candidates on our side that we have heard of, and know of no republicans.

Pingree and Allen, while they might be better known, are probably far weaker candidates than someone like State Senate Minority Leader Kevin Raye would be for the GOP. Michaud would be better, but he is getting up there and is prolife.

As for Massachusetts, its hard to explain the affect actually mattering has had on a large number of normally apathetic voters in the state. Brown is popular not just because he works hard, but because he is bigger than life, something readily apparent when the alternative is John Kerry. Running a random Democratic hack against him would play to every one of his strengths. I doubt he could win reelection with a GOP President in office, but he is lucky he is up in 2012 instead of 2014.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Exactly what i said number of times
And was even banned for some time, because of "unpatriotic" (in this case - "unDemocratc") views)))))
[ Parent ]
Two Years Is Forever
1. Though it seems unlikely (though possible) that there will be a Republican-run Senate, it'll be a lot easier for a strong candidate to cut through the hackery and complacency in a Presidential election year in those states than it would be in an off-season special. Sadly, no Presidential primary to energize voters...but that might end up being better, actually; whatever hack that the Beacon Hill clowns throw up there is going to have to draw voters on his/her own merits.

2. Nothing wakes a party/organization out of a sleepwalk quite like losing an election they're "supposed" to win. I have no idea what the hell the primary was about last time (and neither does anyone else) but this time it'll largely be about who can beat Brown and why.  

3. Brown is either going to spend the next two years letting down every one of his many out-of-state patrons or making Massachusetts residents wonder why the hell they chose to help out the slash-and-burn crowd who've just spent the last two years trying to bring back the 19th century when they did. Nail him to everything that Coburn, DeMint, and the new Tea Party-approved Senators do or try to do.

4. Brown's interesting and "larger than life" to people now in part because he's the 41st vote. Whatever happens this Tuesday he almost certainly won't be the 41st vote anymore.

It's certainly no sure thing, but I wouldn't bet on him sticking around Capitol Hill for long.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
CT-Gov Tied
One of the most Republican friendly pollsters this cycle

[ Parent ]
The website that sponsored this poll
is a Drudge clone for CT news. Check it out:
http://www.ctcapitolreport.com/
[ Parent ]
Survey is wacked
They have 15% Dems going for Foley. Q-poll shows 9.

They have indies going for Foley by 17. Q-poll shows a Foley DEFICIT in this group of 9. That's a 36-point variance between two polls conducted at roughly the same time.

I'll take Q over this group any day. And Q's LV model has been hardly friendly to Dems this cycle.

This poll also shows Foley down just 2 in CT-03, which DeLauro will win handily and is D+9.

Hard to take this seriously. Doesn't help that the poll director has all those silly quotes about it being the tightest race of the century. Yeah, right.

[ Parent ]
Wanna hear 100% perfect, flawless, accurate, spectacularly amazing predix then?
D - 44%
R - 32%
I - 24%

Foley - 8/94/48 = 46%
Malloy - 92/6/52 = 54%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Certainly looks feasible,
though I bet it ends up being closer - maybe a 3-5 point race in the end.
[ Parent ]
Are you going to
Put your final model in each race that you planned on re-doing it in in a diary?  
[ Parent ]
Yes! It's already up, though!
I think I'm gonna pass on projecting all of the gubernatorial races, though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
2012: DNC Starts Oppo Research
Requesting info on Romney, Jindal, Palin, Gingrich, Thune, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Barbour, and Daniels
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...
Wise moves, although not much is required to find dirt on
Palin and Gingrich.  Pawlenty is a panderer and would not win his home state.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
There's no way Gingrich or Palin can be elected President.
Gingrich is full-on assh*** and Palin is an arrogant airhead.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I pray for anyone in that group...
Not to take anyone or any race for granted but as they say, "if that's all you got, then you ain't got nothing."

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
And Thune...
Why?

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
He's expressed interest in running a few times
Probably not a top-tier candidate, but with the uncertainty of the field, he can't be ruled out.

Also, he's running unopposed this year, so by 2012 it will be 8 years since he's run a campaign had an opponent to do oppo research on him.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
He's someone I'm scared of, and at least one Obama staffer said he's the one she's most scared of......
I can't remember who the staffer was, and I can't remember if it was an Adminstration official or former campaign staffer, but it was a name I recognized.

But I have long thought Thune would be a potentially scary-good opponent, and that staffer confirmed it's shared by others.

The questions are:  (1) are Republicans are smart enough to nominate someone with a potentially broad appeal like Thune or Daniels; and (2) is Thune actually capable of running a competent and complete national campaign?

The first question, I assumed for a long time the answer was "yes."  I always have given Republicans credit for nominating their most electable nominee, no matter how bad the circumstances.  It's easy to complain a party should've nominated someone else when their guy loses, but in reality there are elections where no one can beat the opponent.  Dole and McCain were examples of that.  But I turned a corner in my thinking when O'Donnell beat Castle in the DE-Sen primary.  It was bad enough that Republicans were stupid enough to nominate Angle and Buck and Joe Miller, but DE-Sen they literally THREW THE SEAT AWAY in demand of ideological purity.  So the hard right turn among the Republican rank-and-file is truly uncompromising and impractical.  And now I think there's a strong possibility it will carry over into 2012.

The second question applies ultimately to ALL the potential candidates and ultimately is unanswerable in the case of an unknown like Thune.  We know Palin and Gingrich are unelectable and will implode; they normally would implode in the primaries, but the crazy GOP base gives them a chance.  But in the general, these two cannot run a sustained competent campaign.  The others running who have a real shot at the nomination are total unknowns except for Romney, who I suspect can't win the nomination in his own right simply because the GOP base rejected him in a wide-open field once before where he actually had made himself the clear frontrunner for a time, and now he will have the Massachusetts health care reform held against him much more strongly.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think this is the cycle that the GOP leadership lost
control of their party. With multiple teaparty candidates beating out more electable candidates, I just don't see the GOP leadership being able to get Thune the nomination. Most of the sane GOP voters have abandoned the party and become independents/Democrats. What they are left with is the extreme social conservatives who will decide the next nominee. Their only chance is if Huckabee, Palin and Newt split the religious vote and allow Thune to sneak in there.

Romney will never get the nomination because of his religion. Pawlenty is the most boring candidate imaginable and he has to win in Iowa which has heard many of the negative stories about his time as Minnesota governor.

So, Thune is their best bet.  

[ Parent ]
Romney will likely lose because of Romneycare, not because he's Mormon.
After the health care bill passed, you could practically see the sweat on his brow when he struggled to explain how MassCare is different from the bill passed by Congress.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Not to veer too much into 2012
But the dynamics of a presidential primary will be a lot different than in a 2010 Senate primary. A lot of this year's Senate nominees rode a wave of unabashed anger at Washington, which right now is Democratic-dominated. With Republicans likely taking the House this year, there will be less anger in 2012. I expect that the Tea Party will be a factor, but somewhat weaker, and exert less influence over the primary electorate. They may also be smarter after seeing the seats they cost the party. (Call it the O'Donnell hangover.)

The Republican Party can go in many different directions with the House Majority, and the tone (cooperative or aggressive, realistic or idealistic) that Boehner and Co. strike will bear heavily on the party's mood going into 2012, both the presidential and downballot primaries.

(Also, I know it's off topic, but I think the difference between Palin and Gingrich is that neither can win against Obama, but Gingrich stands a chance of winning the primary.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Mostly agree
Hard to predict how things will look in the future. Today in politics doesn't even come close to what I would have predicted two years ago (even more demoralizing senate losses).  

That said, I wouldn't project the current mood into the future. It helps to back up a bit and think about some fundamentals in politics and beyond. For one, impotence and repudiation are associated with irrational anger. Some others on this board (those that aren't 19!) may remember way back to 5 or 6 years ago when dems were whining about diebold and protested the certification of ohio's Electoral ballot on the house floor.  Winning changes the focus and creates confidence. Post election, we may be hearing more from Senators rubio, toomey, portman and less from palin.  What ever happened to Michael Moore, Cindy sheehan, Howard dean?  Plus, on the D side their may be some anger and focus. Plus, Alan Grayson won't have to worry about his day job and can transition into full time cable news  gadfly.

I may be wandering into dangerous territory here that will not be too popular, but the disproportionate attention that has been heaped by liberals onto some fringe elements on the right may reveal more about liberals than conservatives. I suspect that this will only amp up. David Brooks had a good piece alluding to this recently.      

That said, if my assesment of the scene in two years is as inaccurate as two years ago, then who knows?  President Glenn Beck?

   

[ Parent ]
It was
A senior DNC official who said Thune scared her. I don't see why. He's a Republican senator from a small deeply Republican state who has no significant legislative accomplishments to run on and has zero governing experience. I think Daniels is easily the strongest candidate. I don't think he will run though, because I expect BArbour to run. Daniels has not been enthusiastic about running, especially when the possibility of running against his good friend BArbour is brought up. I could envision a Barbour/Daniels ticket though.  
[ Parent ]
You think the GOP would run a two white guy ticket
against Obama? I'd guess they put a Latino or a woman in the VP slot to try to peel off some votes.
[ Parent ]
They'll run 2 white guys. They're the party of white guys and don't have...
...anyone for the ticket who's anything else.  Yes you can throw some names out there, but no one who trips anyone's trigger really.  It's not going to be Rubio or one of the new Governors, they learned their lesson after Palin to go with someone more seasoned.  And the party's seasoned women are not conservative enough for the base.

Forget about people of color, there's no one who anyone would take seriously.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The women
The base doesn't matter once we get to the general election. Our problem with experienced women is most of them are too old to run. KBH will be 69. Jodi Rell never went to college, a big disqualifier these days. Collins and Snowe could never be re-elected if they ran on a national ticket, plus Snowe is up next year. One interesting name would be Elaine Chao, but she was born in Taiwan and is the wife of the US Senate Minority Leader, so that would disqualify her even if she was constitutionally qualified. Condi Rice is probably not interested. She is probably the best woman we have though, because she has experience and is African American and is young. Christine Todd Whitman is a little stale, but she could help with moderates. I don't see her as a serious contender, I'm just scraping the bottom here. Cathy McMorris Rogers is the only Republican woman with experience I see possibly being seriously considered. She is a member of leadership, so she can't be too bad. However, there also may be strong comparisons to Sarah Palin. Mid-forties woman from the Pacific northwest who gave birth to a down syndrome baby while in office.  
[ Parent ]
I suspect
a relatively young woman who looked competent on the trail wouldn't have that much of a problem getting elected. Richard Nixon was only 39(!) when he was selected as Eisenhower's Vice President, but my impression of the time was that he wasn't viewed like Sarah Palin is now. So if there's really nobody who is 50 or older that would add something to the ticket, I don't think they'd be acting ridiculous by looking for a woman in her forties.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
But with the profile
That is so similar to Sarah Palin. Down syndrome baby, Pacific Northwest, etc.  
[ Parent ]
I am not sure
location really matters, unless some sort of ethnic factor comes into play. After all, the Republicans simply need to repeat the Bush 2004 map with maybe one or two smaller states, or one medium-sized state, added in, and they win, or so it seems. And if they can find someone that fires up the base without alienating people like Sarah Palin, it won't really matter what her ethnicity is.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think they'll try not to
But I could totally see Barbour picking Daniels. Then again, Barbour is smart and he knows old white guy from MS should not pick old white guy from IN. I think if its Barbour his running mate has to be Rubio, Sandoval, Martinez (she will probably have to wait a few years though, to avoid comparisons to Palin). He could also pick Haley (Haley/Haley 2012!) but she is from the South, same problem for Jindal.  
[ Parent ]
But those names you throw out are ALL carbon copies of Palin......
They all will be in the middle of their first term of statewide office.  Just like Palin.  And none of them has any experience in a national campaign..  Just like Palin.  And they are very risky regarding what they'll say and do in the glare of the spotlight.  Just like Palin.

And Barbour inevitably would be compared to McCain.

It would be the same exact profile of candidates your side just tried, and of course it was a disaster.  And it plays right into Obama's inevitable argument that Barbour-Whoever is really a repeat of the same ticket he beat before, that they're soooo yesterday, and the running mate is an unacceptable risk to Americans.

I just did a mental exercise of going through past running mates, and I was struck that any EVERY VP running mate by both major parties in my life who DIDN'T cause major image problems for the ticket was a seasoned political figure.  Biden); Edwards (full-term Senator had run very credibly for President the same cycle, so he counts as seasoned enough); Cheney; Gore; Kemp (senior figure in party by that point and had run for President himself); Bentsen (old 20-year Senator); George H.W. Bush; Mondale (longtime senior Minnesota pol at the time he was picked); Dole (in House or Senate for many years at the time he was picked); Shriver (seasoned Democratic pol by that time).

The ones who were more "novel" picks with no experience in national politics were Palin; Quayle; Ferraro; and Agnew.  All caused major public headaches at some point.

A good running mate has keen campaign skills, experience in national politics, and a subordinate profile to the Presidential nominee.

And that last point is something everyone seems to want to get away from.  Everyone forgets that no one votes for the running mate, and a running mate who in any way overshadows the top of the ticket, undermines the ticket.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I just realized
That last part makes it very hard for a white man to pick a woman or minority. No matter what, they will overshadow him.
[ Parent ]
Or just like Obama...?
I think palin's particular problems are not the things you listed. All of those apply to the current occupant of the oval office or any "outsider" candidate.  
[ Parent ]
Let's not have a Palin/Obama
war here because...well...let's not...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
That's not even debatable, Palin is a joke, Obama is admired, and yes therefore not worth arguing. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
palin
Seeing the context better (i was reading quickly on my phone it makes more sense)--an outsider unexperienced running mate for some old establishment figure.  Ignore my comment, I thought it was reference to those names as candidates for the top of the ticket.  My mistake.  Ignore the above.  

[ Parent ]
And right there's your problem, trying to find the next Obama in everyone when they're NOT that......
Obama's liabilities were real ones, but he had insane political skills to overcome them.  He's a once-in-a-generation political figure.

So your side wants to look at every woman and now Hispanic prospective state elected official, BEFORE they've been elected to their first term, and see a President in him/her.  But that's wishful.

In reality some of these people will be busts, finding themselves with low job approvals and unable to win reelection.

Some will do fine but will never rise in national profile and otherwise will display weaknesses that no one realized existed when they were nobodies in 2010.

If you're very, very lucky, someone out of this bunch will have terrific political skills in a charged national setting and be able to distinguish themselves to set themselves up for a national campaign...and then run competently.  But the odds are a lot longer than a lot of you want to believe they are.

Democrats are going to face the same problem in 2016.  After 2 terms of Obama (and yes I am confident he will be reelected and have never wavered on that), Democrats are going to see an unexciting but probably solid field and say, "meh."  It's going to be a bad hangover.  The issue is whether Democratic voters can overcome that to make a smart choice out of what's there, and tune out the Obama phenomenon in doing so.

What Obama did to get elected President as soon as he did was threading a needle.  It's insanely hard to do.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And here...
endeth the lesson...In my Chicago way voice...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
i agree with a lot of that
although many republicans do in fact want to find a mirror image type candidate, I do not think that is the way to go at all.  

We won't out Obama Obama and shouldn't try.  Better to go with a contrast. (and a favorable one!)

[ Parent ]
i agree with a lot of that
although many republicans do in fact want to find a mirror image type candidate, I do not think that is the way to go at all.  

We won't out Obama Obama and shouldn't try.  Better to go with a contrast. (and a favorable one!)

[ Parent ]
Obama was more lucky than anything
If Obama had not been running in a deep recession year, he probably would have lost.  Pretty much any Democrat would have won in 2008.  Obama's political skills really are not that good.  He opens his mouth at the wrong time(the Mosque, Henry Lewis Gates, bittergate).  He also refuses to attack his opponents.

The 2012 election is going to be all about Obama.  If by late next year, there are consistantly 200,000+ jobs being created per month, he's in good shape and an election about his record will be a good thing.  If the economy is still sluggish, he will be in a lot of trouble and will be struggling to answer a lot of questions about his record.  

[ Parent ]
obama
Much as I dislike him, I think it goes a bit far to say he was just lucky (that certainly played a part).  But, you have to recognize the timing, etc., and make your luck. Refuses to attack his opponents? Huh? This seems like a left-blogosphere meme.
[ Parent ]
Ok, that is deluded.
The idea that a black guy named "Barack Hussein Obama" could go from state senator to president in 4 years, while beating the Clinton juggernaut and the entire GOP machine is not a good politician. That is some serious revisionist thinking. It's funny to watch Republicans and Clinton supporters try to pretend what Obama did was easy. It wasn't. He cleaned McCain's clock and it wasn't due to luck or the economy. He out campaigned and out debated McCain. He is a once in a lifetime politician. No amount of spin will change that.
[ Parent ]
My 2016 prediction:
... is that the 2016 Democratic field will be a battle between Andrew Cuomo, Amy Klobuchar, and Sheldon Whitehouse.

AND as with any prediction 6 years out, it will likely look completely bone-headed come 2016!

[ Parent ]
Two words...
MIKE GRAVEL!!!!! :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I actually hope they pick Rubio
or Sandoval as the VP nom. Both of those guys could be dangerous given time. Let's knock out their credibility right now

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Barbour might run but is a big problem for Republicans......
He's a right-wing white Mississippi Governor running against the first black President?

Mississippi to begin with has the worst reputation in the country.  It draws contempt outside the South for extreme racism, general cultural backwardness, and extreme poverty.  So anyone from Mississippi is fighting all that to begin with.

Then, Barbour just lives down to the stereotype.  He's extremely conservative and even his physical appearance paints the picture of a segregationist Governor or sheriff from yesteryear.

Barbour is an EXTREMELY tough sell to centrist suburbanites outside the South.  He will have no ability at all to appeal to any people of color, and will drive up Obama's support among people of color to a new record.  This is not a guy who can win in states like Pennsylvania or Iowa or Wisconsin or Michigan.  Florida, too, would be prohibitive.  And even the conservative Obama states won would be leery of him, giving Obama a strong opening to again win Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina.

That the electorate is browning ever more reduces Barbour's chances even more.  A 1996 electorate that was still around 85% white would have been much more doable for him.  But an electorate whose nonwhite vote share is almost double what it was when he was RNC Chair is just not one in which he can win.

Barbour's not used to selling himself to swing voters, either.  Mississippi is conservative enough that he can ignore liberals and moderates altogether and just be who he is.  He knew how to appeal to moneymen and political professionals outside his ideological and cultural comfort zone as RNC Chair, but those were all loyal Republicans anyway, and appealing to voters outside his comfort zone is completely different and requires a lot more compromise that will be difficult for him.  He would have to learn a whole new set of political skills.

And bringing this back to the topic of downballot races, Barbour is potentially a major drag on his party.  A lot of Republican candidates outside the South, especially suburban candidates, will be hurt by the automatic association of being on the same ticket with him.

Really the Republicans NEED someone outside the South to be the nominee.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Actually...
Mississippi to begin with has the worst reputation in the country.  It draws contempt outside the South for extreme racism, general cultural backwardness, and extreme poverty.  So anyone from Mississippi is fighting all that to begin with.

Frankly, it draws contempt even within the South! (As in, "at least we're not Mississippi!")

[ Parent ]
Sadly enough, that's New Mexico's unofficial motto! n/t
;)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
LOL!
Hey, it beats "Land of Enchantment" (which sounds like a tagline for Disney World).
[ Parent ]
And that's better than Albuquerque's nickname
Duke City my butt... (it's like calling Maryland "Queen State" :P)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Fully agree
The only nominee worse than Barbour would be Palin. Obama-Barbour would be akin to Johnson-Goldwater. Barbour might take more states than Goldwater, but it would be a thorough beating. At the very least though, Barbour would be a respectable conservative who would bring firm ideas to the table and represent his party well. He'd lose big, but he wouldn't embarrass the party.

Palin has all the problems of Barbour but none of the benefits. She's not a "thinking conservative" like he is and would be horrible for the party long term. I'd compare her to Mondale or McGovern, but she would win more states than either. Alas, she would also harm the R brand much more than either of them harmed the D brand.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Comparing Palin to McGovern and Mondale
... is an insult to both. McGovern was a PhD-holding academic who actually held pretty moderate views on most issues. Mondale was a perfectly mainstream Great Society liberal. Both were eminently qualified to be president, just not electable. (And Mondale was probably a victim of a bad year more than anything else - he could have won in '76 for instance.) Barbour would be a better GOP equivalent to them.

Really, a Democratic equivalent to Sarah Palin would be someone like Dennis Kucinich. I know that you may discount this because I'm a Democrat, but I find Palin to be an absolutely absurd figure: she is COMPLETELY unqualified to be president. And I don't exaggerate when I say that I genuinely fear for the country (and the world) if she were to be elected. Much more than I ever did with George W. Bush (who I despised).

Were she elected, I really would probably leave the country. (Not joking.) The prospect of a Sarah Palin presidency scares me enough that I would probably register as a Republican to vote against her in the primary. Sure she's the least electable Republican candidate -- but there's always a chance that she could actually win, and that's something I absolutely could not risk.  

[ Parent ]
I didn't mean it in that way
I meant that her margin of defeat would be similar to theirs--each lost 49 states. She is clearly unfit to be President, and I alluded to that by saying that she would do more damage to their R brand than they ever did to the D brand. Neither one of them harmed future Democrats with their ill-fated presidential runs. That wouldn't be the story with post-Palin Republicans.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Agreed
nt
[ Parent ]
I have heard that Barbour wants to run...
but GOP insiders do not want him to do so.  Who does he excite?  
Far be it from me to know who and what excites the GOP but he is the ultimate insider that has done what exactly for MS?  It is last in everything good and first in everything bad.  When I lived in LA, we used to say "thank God for MS because we would be pathetic."  
It would be like a lobbiest running.  He could raise a lot of money but I cannot see him winning anywhere outside of the McCain 08 states.  He is a hard sell to NH.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
He's actually pretty moderate though
Atleast compared to todays party. He is loved by insiders for his money ability (but they want him for RNC Chair). I think a Barbour will be RNC chair in 2011, just Henry, not Haley.  
[ Parent ]
maybe moderate for a GOP southern Gov
but not really a moderate in today's world.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
sorry meant lobbyist :-)


41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Barbour was a top lobbyist ... for the tobacco industry
That is not going to play well.
[ Parent ]
It hasn't seem to hurt
Kirsten Gillibrand.  
[ Parent ]
Because she's not running for President. If she does...
...then it will hurt her.

But she was NOT a TOP lobbyist for tobacco like Barbour was.  Very different level of activity, Barbour was much higher-profile.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Republicans usually nominate the candidate
who is "next in line" from Reagan, Bush Sr, Dole and McCain. I would say that after 8 years of Clinton, Republicans went a bit outside and even then went with Bush Jr. So, I would therefore expect Romney to the nominee since I think after Nov. Republicans will underestimate Obama's reelection chances.  
[ Parent ]
Is Romney really "next in line"?
I could very easily make the case that Newt Gingrich is that "next in line" guy (former Speaker of the House, constantly spreading rumors of him running both this time and last time, short Republican memories about Newt's tendency to dump sick wives for the new flavor of the month...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Gingrich keeps on coming up
for some reason.  I wouldn't buy in.

There was a recent article on Gingrich published online.  One of the bits of new information in it is that Gingrich's mother was bipolar.  Newt's not overtly that but the writer's impression is very clearly that he's got a pile of milder symptoms of the kind.  It's a fit with the mix of erratic and energetic and accident prone that he is.

Which means that there's a pile of wackiness and binging between extreme selfcontrol and utter lack of it aka "temperament" issues that would emerge were he actually to run for President.  The cheating on his then-wife with Callista during 1998 (while Clinton was struggling with the Lewinsky thing) would come under a microscope.  The fundies would take a close look at his fairly recent conversion to Catholicism.

In short, it's not gonna happen.

[ Parent ]
I think Thune...
... could potentially be the strongest candidate for the GOP. And I stress potentially - he's a bit of a blank slate and sort of bland. But the advantages Thune has are that (a) he's (at least right now) basically acceptable to all factions of the Republican Party, while (b) moderate-seeming enough for swing voters to feel comfortable voting for, should Obama be unpopular in 2012.

The thing is that all the other contenders have major weaknesses with the one or more factions within the Republican base. Thune isn't necessarily "strong" - but he strikes me as potentially the "most adequate" candidate.  

[ Parent ]
He's probably the likely GOP candidate.
He doesn't have huge negatives, has a little bit of charisma and can win his state. None of the other potential candidates can say that.  
[ Parent ]
Disagreed
Gov. Daniels sure can, and he actually has a record of doing something other than upsetting the Senate majority leader, then proceeding to do nothing but tout the party line since then.

The only reason Sen. Thune is dangerous is because he is "Generic Republican".

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I had forgotten about Daniels.
I do have to wonder if the three bland midwestern polls are going to cancel each other out in the primaries.  
[ Parent ]
My guess, assuming the Tea Party sticks around...
Now-Gov. Pawlenty gets tuned out completely because he's about as exciting as a pet rock. Sen. Thune is held up by the establishment but gets ripped to shreds for voting for TARP, even though it was fashionable among Republicans to vote for TARP back in late 2008. Gov. Daniels builds up a groundswell of support from what remains of the wing of the GOP that still believes in progress and new ideas, but gets savaged for proposing such things as a VAT (a filthy curse word among libertarians) and a truce on social issues (a proposal anathema to the religious right).

All in all, I'd probably give the edge to Huckabee right now if he runs, but I'm not sure he will. I can see Gov. Barbour and Rep. Pence go places, but I don't know if they'll run either.

In a conventional shootout between Pawlenty, Santorum, Gingrich, Romney, and Palin (the five people we just know are running in 2012, come hell or high water), I'd say Gingrich bags it. And I'd say none of them can defeat President Obama if unemployment is below 8.5%.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
What
record does Daniels have to run on? Bush's budget director? He hasn't done anything of much importance as IN Governor. Sure he would be competitive and is probably one of the best the GOP has but he is pretty much generic R, same as Thune. I think the best the GOP has (albeit not great) is Huckabee. He can rally the base but does not come off as that out of the mainstream to the rest of the party and would do well with conservadems. He's got a lot of charm and personal appeal. I don't think he would beat Obama but he is the best out of them I think. A lot say Romney, and I thought the same a while ago but he pushed through an eerily similar HCR bill as Obama's. How is he supposed to criticize Obama's? He won't make it through a primary because of it. Plus he is a rather bland generic R.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Huckabee
Can't raise money and will run too much on social issues. Daniels has done many things to change Indiana since he was elected and has governed like he needed to. He did not pander to the base like Sanford, Pawlenty, and Jindal did. He did what he needed to do, no matter what it did to his chances of winning a Republican primary.  
[ Parent ]
What
specific things? Sure there are a few bread and butter things, but nothing important and nothing that adds to his national profile. He's been popular but he has not physically done a whole lot. I'm not saying he couldn't run as "a good Governor" but he can't really point to many specific proposals or legislation he signed. He may try to push through more things when he gets the state house back. Lord, Daniels trying to appeal to the GOP base during a primary with full power in both chambers. Ugh. Huck can't raise money but he has a lot of personal appeal, much more than Thune or Daniels and gets the base. He could add a moderate to the ticket to appeal to indies and I think he is the greatest threat. Supposedly Obama thinks so as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Obama's campaign team
Expects Huckabee to be the nominee. As for Daniels, how about running one of two states with a budget surplus? Taking a budget deficit and turning it into a surplus. The toll reform thing. He plans on education reform next year. Also, I don't think he wants majorities in both houses to appeal to the base (you think Iowa Republicans care about whether or not Reps have a majority in the IN house?), it is because he wants to get his reforms passed. Also, if he was pandering to the base, he would not have raised taxes a few years ago and he would not have called for a truce on social issues.  
[ Parent ]
Tolls
are the things he is hated on. His education reform is a joke but might work in an R primary. Yeah he has a surplus, but that is not to his doing so much but you are right he could and would run on that and it would be a positive. He is a social moderate (supposedly formerly pro-choice). Though in the GE Obama could mention how as budget director he turned a surplus into a deficit under Bush. I mentioned the IN house because he can essentially pass whatever he wants and if he is running in a Republican primary for President he will probably pass a few pieces of legislation to appease the base, trust me he would. This is all a moot point as I doubt he runs.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I also doubt he runs
He has seemed reluctant about it. A reluctant candidate is unlikely to run, and even more unlikely when they would have to run against their long time friend and ally (Barbour). Its unfortunate, because Daniels is very strong as a bland, mainstream, Republican who can raise a ton of money. He would be better than Barbour.
[ Parent ]
He has two strikes against him...
For one, he's said repeatedly that his wife would divorce him if he ever ran and he has to sleep on the couch every time the subject comes up.

Secondly, he's on record for saying that taxes will need to be raised. That's an anvil for him in a GOP primary.

Newt Gingrich told him to stop telling everyone he's not running and to keep teasing 'cos then he'll be more noticed by the media.  So, now he's teasing, but I, too, doubt he runs.

He's the most dangerous candidate, though.  He'd be tough to beat.  Haley Barbour is their weakest candidate.  Nothing like a stereotypical caricature to turn off every independent voter outside the deep south.

[ Parent ]
I strongly disagree
Palin and Santorum would be far worse than Barbour. I forgot to mention his wife. She hates campaigning, and she has said she does not want to be first lady of the US, so thats a big reason he won't run. She said she doesn't even like being first lady of Indiana because she's not big into all those social things she has to go to, so I can't imagine her letting him run for another executive office. Plus, she already divorced him once, so I would take her threats seriously. That is one thing that sets him apart from Romney I guess. While Ann Romney is probably the biggest thing Mitt has going for him, Cheri Daniels is probably his biggest weakness. I've known women to vote in pres and gov elections based on the candidates wives. ridiculous I know, but...
[ Parent ]
Palin and Santorum would be worse...
I agree, but I don't think that either have a shot in Hades of winning the nomination.  Santorum is just a loser, and while many GOP'ers love Palin, they know she can't possibly win and won't vote for her, especially when there are plenty of other "true conservatives" to choose from that are a lot more viable.
[ Parent ]
I agree that they won't nominate Palin
But given that I think the Republicans are likely to nominate Newt Gingrich, I can't agree with you on the reason why they won't nominate Palin.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Well, that's true...
...a gingrich candidacy would be a gift of gifts to us.  He's smart and wily, but there is very little he can do to shake his unlikableness, and likability is paramount in a presidential candidate.
[ Parent ]
That's a joke
Gingrich literally gave his first wife divorce papers while she was being treated for cancer (while having an affair with his second wife, who he left for another mistress). Do you honestly think that someone with that kind of checkered history is going to be that strong in a general election (assuming he isn't having another affair)?!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Well, John McCain left his first wife..
... because she was disfigured in an accident and wasn't pretty enough anymore. Cheated on her while she was recovering.  
[ Parent ]
True
Though McCain is different because it's never talked about nor has it ever affected his political campaign.

Gingrich, on the other hand, had to resign because of his affair (his hypocrisy aside, it's pretty damn easy to remind people of why they never liked Lizard Man!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Taxes
If we can get Republicans to admit we need higher taxes by electing him, I might be reachable, and I'm a very partisan Dem.
[ Parent ]
Why is the DNC wasting their time on this now?
They should be working on 2010 not 2012.  This is my whole beef with Obama.  He cares only about his own reelection and doesnt care if the party gets killed in Congress and state and local elections.  
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised if Marc Rubio runs.
He's probably stronger than all the above, I'd say.

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
I doubt
anyone is taking him seriously, but supposedly, Giuliani has expressed interest in running again, or at least not ruled it out. As a Democrat, I am thrilled by this, because his campaign would provide hours and hours of comic relief, at least for me.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Marist/McClatchy: tied in the generic
LV, too
Fingers crossed not an outlier.
[ Parent ]
Hey I'll take that piece of good news.

[ Parent ]
You know
where I can find the internals? I don't see any links at the article. :(
[ Parent ]
Here ya go
[ Parent ]
Thanks! n/t

[ Parent ]
Boy that's a big, big poll
It's not much on it's own though.  If somebody comes in and corroborates that result, I'm going to start feeling MUCH better about next Tuesday.  

Really, the only thing that is giving me pause about holding onto control of the House of Representatives is the generic ballot.  Most of the individual district polling has been good enough to which I think we can hold the House, so if the generic ballot really is either tied or under a 3 point deficit, I think we'll pull it off.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
We can keep the House with a generic ballot deficit
based on the power of incumbency, etc. I've written on it before -- basically

Sabato thinks Rs need at least a 2% lead
Gallup's model suggests Rs need at least a 4% lead
extrapolating Nate, I think it's at about 5-6% for him

Each of them have an MoE within that -- i.e. 5-11 seats per percent difference.

Given the relative strength of our candidates overall, I think we can keep the House with an up to 6 point deficit (i.e. 47-53)

[ Parent ]
Enthusiasm Gap
Are democrats so unmotivated that even rain stops them from getting to the polls?
Link: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...
I'm really beginning to doubt
the seriousness of our political experts. I think it all began when many of them added the word "tweet" to their lexica.
[ Parent ]
Republicans +6 in Times/CBS generic
Yet another example of voter incoherence
Mr. Obama's approval rating remains below 50 percent - 43 percent among registered voters, which is about where former President Bill Clinton's approval rating was in the 1994 midterm elections when Republicans swept control of the House and the Senate.

Yet nearly 60 percent of Americans are optimistic about his next two years in office and nearly 70 percent say the economic slump is just temporary. Half say the economy is where they expected it would be at this point, and less than 10 percent blame the administration for the state of the economy, leaving the onus on the administration of George W. Bush and Wall Street.


[ Parent ]
Why is that incoherent?

All the babble about how voters are motivated by hate for Obama or blame the Democrats for the state of the economy has been crap all along.  The available evidence has never actually supported these theories.

Voters have hated the psychological agony inflicted on them by the indecisiveness and petty stalling games played by the critical Democrats, who have at the same time watered down all reforms that managed to get passed.  For no particularly good reason.

I think it's simple: voters don't want the Dems in control of the agenda on Capitol Hill to run the country any longer.  Hell, I don't want the current batch to run things any longer.  They're spent, they're not good for more.

[ Parent ]
Trying to find trend lines here...
CBS did a poll apart from NYT in early October that had R+8, though the Sept CBS/NYT poll had R+2. I wonder if the intervening poll (CBS-only) used the same polling methodology, which would then make this a tightening in our favor, albeit just slight.
[ Parent ]
Snyder up 53-35
http://www.detnews.com/article...

Virg picked the worst year possible to run.  It's a shame because his economic populism is what Democrats need.

And yet . . .
Zero coattails for the GOP in MI-07 and MI-09.  Peters looks safe and the latest EPIC poll has Schauer up 50-43.  Amazing.  

As for MI-01, its a tossup, although if I had a gun to my head, I'd say the GOP flips it (right after saying "please remove the gun").  

[ Parent ]
Same thing happened in Ohio in 2006
When Strickland won big.  To the surprise of many, Democrats only picked up Bob Ney's old seat.  
[ Parent ]
For those of you interested in the Field Poll's release date,
we are getting something to tomorrow. I have no idea what it is, but something is out tomorrow.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Guessing Gov
They usually release Gov one day before Sen
[ Parent ]
Probably that does seem to be the trend.
I know people from The Field Poll and it seems as though the results won't all come out over a one day period.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
So, CNN's crosstabs
leave out "others" in almost every state. However, for Pennsylvania, I referred to the 2006 exit poll and plugged in the Senate race numbers. Assuming that Toomey and Sestak split non-black, non-white voters (a poor assumption--Sestak will win them), this is a 1-2 point race.

Money on the street in Philly could make the difference.  

Finally
the GOP has found a way to shut Angle up.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

Meanwhile, Reid did campaign appearances three times with
Kal Penn and Sec. Gary Locke.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Wow, Politico was spinning hard for Angle in that story.

[ Parent ]
trust me
I remember conservative sites reweighting polls in 2008 until they thought the poll looked better.  It looks good on paper but it does not help on election day.  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
As long as they rewrote them right
I got no problem with it. Some of my formula is "if it's partisan without any explanation, subtract 5 from that party's candidate" and "a Rasmussen Senate poll means you subtract 2-5 points from the Republican".

Also, sort of a formula, be highly skeptical of all polls, especially ones that occur right before Election Day.

[ Parent ]
Take heart: GOTV going to work
groups doing pro-Dem canvassing, phone calls today:

Votevets.org:

PA-SEN
PA-07
PA-08

Voces de la Frontera:

WI-SEN

Working America:

CO-SEN
IN-SEN
KY-SEN
MO-SEN
NV-SEN
PA-SEN
AR-02
CO-07
MI-07
NM-01
NM-02
NV-03
OH-01
PA-03
PA-08

Florida New Majority:

FL-25

Working for Us:

MI-01

USAction:

NH-01
PA-08

National Wildlife Federation:

PA-SEN
NM-01

Advancing Wisconsin:

WI-07
WI-08

these are the ones that had expenditures to file, who knows how many out there that are solely volunteer, or ran by campaigns and not by outside groups.

More GOTV goodness
League of Conservation Voters:

CO-SEN
MO-SEN
NV-SEN
AZ-07
CA-11
MD-01
NH-02
NM-01
NM-02
VA-05

Progressive Future:

PA-SEN
CO-01
CO-02
CO-03
CO-05
CO-05
CO-06
CO-07
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08

Clean Water Action:

CO-SEN
PA-SEN
CO-04
MI-07
PA-07
PA-08

[ Parent ]
WA-6 Radio Ad
Heard my 1st ad on radio today re WA-6 race. A radio ad by Doug Cloud that sounded like they spent all of $10 to produce.  Monotone announcer says under Norm Dicks'tenure, Boeing has lost 30,000 jobs, replaced by "lower quality" public sector jobs. I guess Cloud came on at the end to state his name and paid for by his campaign committee.

The ad seemed to try and hit the Republican talking points re lost jobs, etc. But if this ad is all they got I doubt it will have much impact.

Lol, that's pathetic
Yeah, Dicks is safe. If he can win a majority in the low turnout Republican affair that was the top-two primary, he'll definitely win in the general election.

I think Koster is fine too, only trouble will be Heck...though I think that one is looking better by the day.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Wait?
Are you saying you think Koster will win or did you mean to say Larsen?  
[ Parent ]
Yes, I meant Larsen!
I'm not slowly morphing into a conservative....unfortunately :)



21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
NRCC had some buys today
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

mostly small ad buys and media consulting/research/surveys it looks like.  they just bought on Friday, so these look like districts they decided to increase spending in after seeing DCCC buys I guess, or maybe radio buys... maybe spiderdem can make more sense of it than I can.

noteworthy:

WI-03: $151K

this was promised a couple days ago.

NY-01: $44K

what?  first time they've spent here, but so piddling in the NYC market as to make me wonder why they bothered.

VA-05: $177K

Perriello will just not quit.

KY-06: $40K

NRCC had skipped this race Friday, not sure what they think $40K is going to accomplish.

NV-03: nothing still.

Suffolk
Suffolk County local media (radio, cable) is not very expensive at all.  You aren't going to be able to buy NYC for that, but you really don't have to.

Don't let Cablevision sell you spots on Fox 5 or My9 this weekend!!

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Patriot Majority Out with ads on Veterans



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Patriot Majority is a good name.
If GOP-oriented groups can have deceptive names, why can't we?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The expenses are listed here:
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
DCCyclone, what do you think of these ads?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Good ads, not as good as Reid's own but good...but why TWO of these???......
These are the same argument, made by the same people.  Why?

I like the 2nd one slightly better because it throws in that Angle opposes prescription drugs for the VA or some such thing, an issue I don't understand but it catches the viewer's attention to hear it.

I always love having real people in the ads who have moral authority to speak on whatever is the subject of the ad.  That's always powerful, the viewer almost automatically grants credibility to the messenger and, by extension, the message.

My only concern is that even with Reid and allies having run the most effective ad campaign I've ever seen, we're still on the edge of our seats.  I don't fully dismiss the totality of public polling, it's not nothing, and Angle has the edge now in that set of tea leaves.  But this is an unusual race where there are plenty of tea leaves to contradict the public polls.  No one who seems to have inside information says Angle has an edge, the preponderance of opinion is that it's a dead heat with neither side having a clear advantage.

This race is important to me because frankly there are 3 Senate races where the Republican nominees are completely unfit to be in any public office, and this is one of them.  O'Donnell is another but can't win and will get blown out, and Joe Miller is the 3rd but is in deep trouble in his own right on 2 flanks.  But Angle now is actually best positioned of the 3 to actually win, and it's paramount to defeat her.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
CO-Sen: Rasmussen speaks again, says Buck up 48-44, and reveals fatal flaw in methodology......
This Rasmussen poll has a turnout model of 36D-30R-34I.

Their previous survey, which had Bennet actually closer, down 47-45, had a turnout model of 30D-30R-40I.

So supposedly indies have plummeted and Dems have skyrocketed, and yet Bennet has LOST ground?

Thus is the randomness of Rasmussen results.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Oh, forgot to add, these 2 polls were just 11 days apart. Likelihood of voting doesn't change that fast, nor does...
...a change HURT the party whose voters show up in greater numbers.

Oh, and I didn't even consider that these polls are the same as the Fox Pulse polls, one of which was even more recent for this race and showed a 46-45 result.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That
does seem a bit odd. Seeing how the GOP has a registration edge in Colorado and you would think they would be the ones fired up.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
More from Rasmussen crosstabs......
Rasmussen says Bennet leads 54-43, 11 points(!), among respondents who already voted, and trails 53-34 among those "likely voters" who have not yet voted.

But Colorado early voting shows Republicans have outnumbered Democrats.  Democrats supposedly are doing better in early voting turnout than in 2006, and supposedly better relative to Republicans than in 2006, but still Republicans have more votes banked, and more votes is more votes.

So that, too, is an anomaly in Rasmussen.  Now, crosstabs are unreliable, but the gap they show is a BIG one for Bennet among early voters.

We know the Colorado turnout data is, by definition, correct.

So by necessary conclusion, something is badly amiss with Rasmussen's methodology.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This isn't the first poll showing a significant
Bennet lead in voters who already voted. I wonder if Bennet is getting winning the independent vote by a huge margin?
[ Parent ]
wouldn't surprise me
In fact, I'd be surprised if Buck carried the no-party vote.
[ Parent ]
Utter bunk
And probably the best bit of non-anecdotal evidence I've seen yet that Rasmussen cooks their numbers. There's just no bloody way the electorate shifts six points more Democratic and Buck doubles his lead, even if it is still within the MoE.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
That makes no sense.
I always thought Rasmussen just overweighted their polls for conservatives, but now I am wondering if they are cooking their polls. That just doesn't make sense at all.

They must have massive crossover voting for Buck.

[ Parent ]
No other poll shows that
It looks really, really fishy to me.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Unless there was typo...this is good evidence that Rassmussen is claptrap


21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
New twist in Alaska
Supreme Court stays today's ruling that forbid election officials from giving voters list of write-in candidates: http://www.alaskadispatch.com/...

Twitter.com/Taniel

Twitter.com/Taniel

Washoe numbers in
Dems = 2,326 (47.85% of two-party vote)
Reps = 2,535 (52.15% of two-party vote)
All = 5,793

Two-party vote percentages before today:
Dems = 46.8%
Reps = 53.2%

So relative to previous days, this is a pretty good showing - with a margin of less than 200 votes.

These are much smaller absolute numbers relative to Clark, so let's hope those numbers run strong for us through Friday.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/vot...

That should be:
"with a margin of a little more than 200 votes."
[ Parent ]
Joe Miller
channels is inner....semi Christine O'Donnell/Harry Potter.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Is he for real?
Is this running on TV? You would think they would have enough time to do more than one take of his lines. Along with that ridiculous voiceover, I almost feel embarrassed for him. This is truly amateur hour. How is somebody who went to Yale Law such a hopeless yutz?

He kind of looks like Don Draper if "Mad Men" had been set in Fairbanks instead of New York City and been about fixing Internet elections instead of advertising.

[ Parent ]
Most ads are easily recognizable as political ads
those that are wacky or slightly off-beat can cut through the clutter. I would say it is clever enough to get his message across. It's also funny/apt since she who must not be named is actually not on the ballot. Miller is still a d-bag though and I hope somehow McAdams can surge late.  
[ Parent ]
Awful
One of the worst ads I've seen in a while.  He comes across as so sleezy and plain terrible.  There are two candidates in the country that truly make me cringe, Joe Miller is one of them.
[ Parent ]
Who's the other?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Alan Grayson
I know he has his fair share of supporters here and I do agree with him on certain issues, but man does he make my skin crawl.  His smugness and overall demeanor are simply despicable to me.
[ Parent ]
Can anyone explain?
I just looked at CNN's Nevada '06 exit poll, it has indies as 26% of the electorate, according to Jon Ralston's tweets, that's exactly the number of indies in today's Ras poll, which he said is too many indies. Can anyone explain why? Thanks

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Because actual Nonpartisan + third parties...
Registration only add up to 21%. And so far in early voting, Nonpartisan + others have only comprised about 15% of the electorate.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Predictions 2 years out...amateurs
I've stated this before as my fear about PA.  I think Obama wins a second term in 2012.  

But my super long-term prediction is that the Repub VP nominee in 2016 is....Gov Tom Corbett of PA.

Figure in 2016 GOP will still nominate an uber conservative, and with little if any bench in the Northeast, it will probably be a SOutherner or Westerned.  Corbett would balance the ticket in so many ways.  And put PA in play.

Who would Democrats nominate in 2016?
Its not like the party is going to have much of a bench anywhere after this election.  
[ Parent ]
Oh heck
I don't even have the GOP nominee, I have just the VP nominee.  I'm not Kreskin LOL.
[ Parent ]
Maybe Scott Walker?
I can definately see him on a Republican ticket someday.  Same with John Kasich, Rob Portman and of course, Marco Rubio.  
[ Parent ]
Hmmm....
What does Rubio add.  Wouldn't that really be an uber-conservative ticket.  I mean Florida's important and all but gosh who would serve well with Rubio as their VP.
[ Parent ]
first Hispanic on the ticket?
seems like it is helpful. Also, look at his closing ad on youtube. It reminds me of someone. hmn.
[ Parent ]
He'd probably lock up Florida
for Republicans.  
[ Parent ]
My guess....2016 FL is for GOP anyways
I jsut don't know who as Prez would pick Rubio.  I guess maybe Thune or another midwesterner but I can't see any southerners going that route.  I do agree FL would be locked up but I'm not sure it would matter.
[ Parent ]
Really,
I thought the same thing. Be yourself don't copy Obama. Create your own persona or cult of personality.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Rubio swears that he is going to be the
first Latino president...He has got too much baggage from FL.  In a national spotlight, they would go through his record with a magnifying glass and a tweezer.  I would love to see a Latino prez in my life but not him.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Rubio isn't really that super Conservative
His relationship with the Tea PArty was a marriage of convenience. He is a pretty mainstream Republican.  
[ Parent ]
Today
Its hard to see him staying moderate going forward.  The Senate GOP is pretty much going to have to be hard right and what might be called "obstructionist" for the next 2 years for sure.  That's 2 years and he only has 4 until the 2016 cycle begins.
[ Parent ]
Never graduated from college
Automatic disqualifier these days. Kasich is a little uninspiring and baggage, baggage, baggage. Definitely on Portman. Some insiders think he is going to seek the VP nomination in 2012. He views this campaign as an audition, and so far, it is going very well.  
[ Parent ]
Re: Never graduated from college
Seen a couple of people here say that it's an automatic disqualifier these days. Sounds plausible. I'm just curious, are there any recent examples of races where that came up as an argument against a candidate? (Excuse my ignorance if there was some really prominent / obvious one.)

I would have guessed, myself, that a candidate not having graduated would indeed look bad, but would also be an awkward thing to raise for his/her opponent. Especially if the candidate otherwise had a successful career / life story. Voters don't like undereducated candidates, but they also don't like "smug" or "elitist" (to use some adjectives that would be used) candidates ragging on their opponents' modest backgrounds.

That would have been my guess, would be curious to hear (or be reminded) about races in which this came up.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
I dont know of any
I only see it as a disqualifier for president, and not for myself, but as far as candidate strength. Personally, I would have no problem voting for a presidential candidate who did not go to college if I thought he was smart enough to run the country. There are some people here who think it is hard for a senate candidate not to have graduated from college. I can't imagine an opponent bringing it up. Its one of those things that could backfire, but it would be spoken of in the media.  
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah ya'll will
Names off the top of my head: Clinton, Biden (let it be!), Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Mark Warner, Alex Sink, Andrew Cuomo, Sebelius, Bob Casey, and Brian Schweitzer.  
[ Parent ]
Warner or Cuomo are viable
I don't see the others as viable.  For various reasons (geography, views, etc).  And I always thought Casey, but if GOP picks Corbett I jsut can't see Casey getting the nod.
[ Parent ]
I was talking about
Candidates for President in the primary. Of course, if Casey somehow wins (He'd struggle because he is pro-life) Corbett would be out.  
[ Parent ]
LOL Casey fro Pres
Oh gosh, we can all agree that won't happen.  Plus I don't think he ahs the desire.  Never heard anything about him having presidential ambitions.  I think he likes PA and the family legacy in PA is pretty nice.  Expect to see him speak at the 2016 convention though, completing the legacy.
[ Parent ]
Schweitzer
Why do you think Schweitzer would be unviable? He's from a red state, but wouldn't that be a plus?

I'd kind of like to see Tester run .. but perhaps that's because I don't know enough about him. All I'm going off is that he's a progressive, but one so rugged he's as far from the John Kerry stereotype of liberals as possible, that he was successful in a fairly deeply red state, and that he has a populist bend. Actually, I guess most of that would apply to Schweitzer too?

What about the non-Hillary women listed, Klobuchar and Gillibrand? Why do you consider them non-viable? Gillibrand cause she's from NY?

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
Got a few more...
Ambassador Susan Rice, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Rep. Joe Sestak, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, and Dannel Malloy.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
If Sestak loses to Toomey
Can't see him as viable.
[ Parent ]
No, but if he DOES win...


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
If he does win
I feel like partying until 2016.
[ Parent ]
I will say though....
We came dang close to having Alex Sink being the VP nominee in 2016...so close.
[ Parent ]
a 68 year old veep?
really?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Woman from FL for Prez
And her being old really wouldn't hurt in FL would it.  

Its not like Hillary was 40 and fabulous in 2008 and she was definitely in the mix.

[ Parent ]
the veep (usually) should be ready to become prez in 8 years
biden and cheney are exceptions of course.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Ehh that's not really important
Things change so much in 8 years nowadays I think this "rule" is out the window.  Kind of like the whole "we don't elect Senators to Prez" is probably out the window too.
[ Parent ]
agreed
Remember, it's one person who's deciding on their #2, no longer a convention vote to pick the strongest future leader.  Hate to say it, but the last thing on their mind is:  "After I'm done with my two terms, the person I pick as VP has to be in position to replace me..."
[ Parent ]
even ignoring the wanting the ceep to be ready to be prez
point i mentioned, i should hope the veep is spry enough to campaign.  it's possible sink would be perfectly able to campaign, but at 68 it's less likely than a younger candidate.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I absolutely disagree
The Democrats could lose 85 seats in the House next week and they would still have a deeper bench than the Republicans. The Republicans have the sort of candidates that would win if the election were held in specific parts of the country, but it's hard to see how they piece together a ticket that is acceptable to anyone outside the Republican base. That could change if they score some serious wins during this cycle, but the country is changing to the point where the Republicans need to appeal to the blue and purple areas, not where the Democrats need to appeal to the red areas. And it's only going to get more and more like that before 2016.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I could see it
We will be looking for wins in new places and by then our bench will be pumped up a little bit. Toomey could also be a possibility. He's younger.  
[ Parent ]
Toomey
Nope, he doesn't have cross-appeal and certainly won't put PA in play.  He doesn't really balance the ticket with a conservative either.
[ Parent ]
Right now, I'd stack my chips on Susana Martinez


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Definately VP material
Hispanic woman and from a swing state.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not sold
Richardson was supposed to be the same thing.  I don't see the GOP flocking to a Latin/Hispanic candidate.  Looks good on paper I just don't know how it'd actually play out.
[ Parent ]
balance is overrated this generation
I appreciate anyone going out on a limb, but the actual selection of a VP candidate in the last 30 years has completely gone away from any kind of regional balance.

Obama picked Biden for "elder statesman-ness" Delaware had nothing to do with it.

McCain picked Palin for "maverick woman".  Alaska? Nope.

Kerry picked Edwards because of the 2nd place effect.  MAYBE you've got a regional argument here.

Bush/Cheney:  see Obama-Biden

Gore picked Lieberman because of his moderate cred and "anti-Clinton-ness".  Not because of CT.

Dole/Kemp:  Maybe regional, probably not though.

Clinton/Gore:  Similar styles.  Next door neighbor.

Dukakis/Bentsen:  see Obama-Biden WITH BONUS regional appeal...maybe putting Texas in play, but doubtful with Bush on the other side.

Bush/Quayle:  Needed a young buck.

Mondale/Ferraro:  Needed a spark, see McCain/Palin.

Reagan/Bush:  See Kerry/Edwards

In my mind, the VP pick of late is nearly always someone the Prez candidate will feel comfortable with first.  Adding candidate or regional diversity is sometimes a consideration, and picking someone hoping it will help you win their state appears to be one of the least important deciding factors.  And I don't blame them...if I were running, I'd want a #2 I could trust 100% and that I was personally familiar with BEFORE the campaign.  

[ Parent ]
Winnign is #1
Its the only reason Rubio would be in the convo.  Its kind of why I don't think Barbour would be a VEEP, I don't know what state he could deliver.

Regardless, we've all learned that the VP really only means something if he delivers a state.  In 2008 either candidate could have picked me as VP and the results would have been exactly the same.  

[ Parent ]
idk
When is the last time A.  A VP was picked primarily so they could deliver their state (whereas not picking them would be a loss in said state) AND B.  It worked?  Debatably once or twice since LBJ in '60?

BTW, I think this is a pleasant but brief respite from the barrage of polling.  I'm sure we'll be back to that in the morning, and I look forward to it.

[ Parent ]
I agree that it doesn't work
Especially recently.  But the GOP needs a roadmap to victory.  I don't think a Barbour-Rubio ticket is it.  I jsut think Rubio is ONLY in the convo because its Florida.  If he was from Oregon he would not be in the convo.  

Geography is just one of the considerations, but really only since 1992 has it been totally out the window...it doesn't mean its permanent.

[ Parent ]
Rubio
Young, telegenic, articulate, strong on the party's issues, and Hispanic. He'd be relevant if he were from North Dakota.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Couldn't disagree more
Not liekt eh GOP picking extreme Palin helped them win, picking an extreme (he will be) Rubio is going to help more.

Plus, we all know no one votes for VP.  But if FL is close he matters.  I can't see where else he'd help.  NM maybe but even then I doubt it.  

[ Parent ]
I guess where we disagree is on how conservative Rubio is
And it's a fair question, since he tacked to the right during the primary and took Tea Party/DeMint support. At this point, I don't think anyone can predict how mainstream or conservative a Republican Marco Rubio is.

Palin's problem wasn't so much her stances on issues--one could argue she wasn't far to the right of Republicans like Reagan or Bush who won nationwide. The difference is that she was unable to articulate her very conservative views in a mainstream way like Reagan famously did. In short, she lacked the skills to be Vice President. It really is all in how you say it--if it sounds good, a lot of uninformed voters might not realize how conservative it is.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Because he would be the only Hispanic North Dakotan?


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Hmmm..... 6 days from election day
and lots of us are talking about Presidential politics in '12 and '16, something I thought was at least discouraged here.

Are people here already burned out on '10?

Haha its my fault
But I still feel the Corbett prediction is a solid one.  And ironically, we've moved away from 2012 and on to 2016 :-)
[ Parent ]
There's been over 800 comments today
Maybe the regulars have said what there is to be said about '10 and are bored?  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
My view
Is that this has been the most pleasant thread in weeks.  So whatever the formula, I prefer to keep it.  If we must avoid dealing with an endless barrage of insane polls and not responding to the chicken littles/anti-dem dem's, so be it.
[ Parent ]
I'm tuning out all the '12 talk...
Kinda find it frustrating wading through it all for the current news, but then again, I'm cranky tonight. ;-)
[ Parent ]
LOL
Yes, if there's a complaint to have, its the lack of coverage and commentary on politics at the moment.  If only there were more political ads, polls, debates, interviews, commentary, analysis, frustration and so on.

I'll say a prayer that we get back to the normalcy of 40 polls, 39 showing Dem's down.  No thanks.  Polls, like everything else, became irrelevant after tomorrow.  After Thursday its all about acutal voting, nothing else.

[ Parent ]
Not necesarrily
Polls will continue to be relevant through the weekend because of the large numbers of undecideds in many races still.  
[ Parent ]
The polls tell us there are large numebrs of undecideds
It makes little sense to believe it.  What's the game-changer at this point?

The true undecideds are those who are undecided about voting.  Which comes down to GOTV (i.e. voting) but not ads or polls.

[ Parent ]
This is actually the most exciting time
in polling. I agree with GOP. Undecideds swing, late developments move the numbers, some polls tighten, some break out, etc. A lot can happen in these last few days - not necessarily nationally, but on a race by race basis.

Especially House polling - that's extra volatile, and undecideds tend to move late.

[ Parent ]
Not many late devlopements
Will change it much. Its too late for scandals (unless they are HUGE) to affect a race, but undecideds will typically break towards challengers. For example, in WI-03, there is a report about Ron Kind making doctors donate to him if they wanted to meet with him during the health care debate. Does it sound bad? yes. Will it move the race enough to where he loses? Probably not. Had this story hit two weeks ago, would he be in a very tough race now? I think so.  
[ Parent ]
Private polling . . .
by individual campaigns, however, I think is done.  At this stage, what's the point?  

All efforts are probably now focused on GOTV.  

[ Parent ]
MI-07
Republican conservative Tim Walberg continues to slip behind in Michigan's 7th:

http://www.wlns.com/Global/sto...

6 News Poll:

Mark Schauer (D): 50%
Tim Walberg (R): 43%

Supposedly, this is the second most expensive race in the country.

Poll: Rhode Island tells Caprio to take his candidacy and shove it.
http://www2.turnto10.com/news/...

Quest shows it at Chaffee- 35%, Robitaille - 28%, and Caprio- 25%.  The October 12 Quest poll showed Caprio winning with 37%.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


OUCH!
That is just a brutal drop. Say hello to Gov.-elect Chafee this time next week...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Obama not endorsing Caprio was just stupid
It would be nice if the President would actually try to help elect Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
Nope.
Caprio is an idiot. Liberals should want Chafee.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Plus
Chafee endorsed Obama in 2008. Granted Chafee was out of the senate by then, but still. Plus I like Chafee.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Truthfully
I think the only reason he has never gone full D is because of his dad. But he was always been a complete RINO. Had I lived in RI I might have voted for him in 06 had the balance of the Senate not been dependent on him losing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Probably so
I think politicians who come from political families who were once leaders of their party (aside from Jay Rockefeller) it is harder for them to switch parties. Chafee would be a Dem, but he probably thinks his father would not approve. Same reason Dan Boren will probably not switch parties.  
[ Parent ]
One of the most jaw-dropping statements...
... I've ever seen a politician make was when, in a post-election interview, Chafee was railing about the Republican Congress and praising voters for giving Democrats control.

The interviewer, puzzled, noted that Chafee - a Republican - had lost, and that his loss provided the Democrats 51st vote. So, the interviewer asked, would you consider your own loss to be "a good thing?"

Chafee's response: "in all honesty, yes."  

[ Parent ]
Multiple Media outlets....
I kept hearing different networks say that Chafee endorsed Obama "while he was a Republican" AND "while he was a Senator".  Heard it on Fox, CNN, and ABC Radio News.  He was neither when he endorsed Obama.  
[ Parent ]
I'd take Chafee over 90% of Democrats
He's smart, he's center-left, and he has a conscience. My kind of candidate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I second that
And an "idiot" is hardly "better Democrat", which is a motto of progressives...
[ Parent ]
Caprio is not much of a Democrat...
Chaffee is much more of a Dem than Caprio could ever be...
[ Parent ]
At some point
It'd be nice to see Linc with a D next to his name.  The independent thing is cute and all but I really don't want to hear about it for the rest of my life.
[ Parent ]
Stupid?
Au contraire. I wish I lived in RI so I could vote against the b-stard.
[ Parent ]
A
Democat who tried to switch parties had the field been cleared for him. Chaffee is much more progressive and it would have been horribly rude for Obama to have back stabbed a very high profile 08 backer. I was neutral in this race, mainly rooting for Caprio do to the D but not really caring but his reaction to the situation was disgusting and made me fully root for Chaffee. Also, just a heads up, this is a progressive blog, it might be a good idea to avoid the Obama bashing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
It's because Chafee endorsed and actively campaigned for Obama in 2008.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Um, no
Trust me, I'm from RI and Caprio is a gigantic jerk and a conservadem. if Obama had endorsed Caprio he would have turned off people like me who are normally Dem voters but prefer a nice liberal like Chafee to a conservadem douchebag like Caprio.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Caprio should just have kept his mouth shut...
I know he was miffed by Obama's lack of endorsement, but his public "shove it" comments just torpedoed his candidacy. Made him seem petty and vindictive, plus RI is one state where I suspect Obama is still fairly popular, esp. with D voters.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think Obama is still popular
I've been away from home for a while and haven't had too many political conversations with people back home, but RI is definitely a state where even people who want to stick it to state Dems are scared shitless by national Reps.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
RI-GOV
Ras last Friday also showed Chafee at 35%, but Caprio at 28% and Robitaille at 25%, here Caprio and Robitaille switched within a few points, Chafee hasn't necessarily gained.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
question is why was Obama in RI
in the first place? Ok, he has probably locked down the two House races but really Rhode Island needed a stop?  
[ Parent ]
Probably per request of Cicilline
n/t

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
And this, folks
is exactly why people in places like RI are sick of hearing about Ohio and Florida all the time--because it leads to comments like this.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
You can't draw conclusions
about trends by comparing two polls with different methodologies.
[ Parent ]
Oh
and Chafee's latest ad features Obama praising Chafee for his vote against the Iraq war, with a cameo by Bloomberg towards the end.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Wow
That ad makes me want to vote in Chaffee for President.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Way ahead of you
Seriously, if he ever runs, he has my vote against literally anyone in the country. Except for maybe Gov. Schweitzer of Montana.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Linc seems the ultimate good guy. One of my favourite politicians in the States. Too centrist to my taste though, probably, even if he is more liberal than the D in his state and many Ds elsewhere. In my fantasy world, it's still Bernie Sanders for President. :-)

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
RGA spending
Doesn't seem so stupid now.
[ Parent ]
Yeah it does...
Well, not stupid, because they didn't know this would happen. But this screws up everything for them. Now Dems and moderates will coalesce around Chafee, leaving the scraps for the other two.

Republicans needed Caprio to be a viable choice for the left. He no longer is. This is crash and burn for him. I hardly knew he was a week ago, and now I'm tempted to go do some campaigning against him (I'm in CT).

[ Parent ]
IA-01
Smart Politics goes out on a limb and says Braley not vulnerable.

The American Future Fund has spent $1.4 million in the district against Braley.

If you had to say
Which Iowa house seat do you think is most likely to switch parties, and do you think any will?
[ Parent ]
SUSA polls Ohio
And finds Strickland trailing 49-44.

He leads 52-43 among early voters (21% of sample), however.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Twitter.com/Taniel

Twitter.com/Taniel

Feels like NJ-GOV all over again
I just hope Strickland keeps it close enough so Democrats dont lose the four seats they need to lose the state House.  
[ Parent ]
That SUSA write-up
"Governor is Likely GOP Take-Away"

"[A]mong voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Strickland has a narrow advantage."

The topline is 49% Kasich, 44% Strickland, a five point difference. And Strickland's "narrow advantage" among voters that have already voted? 52% Strickland, 43% Kasich, a nine point difference.

Maybe they just labeled the wrong thing "narrow".  

[ Parent ]
That's a nice pad of early votes...
Really nice... That should inspire a good deal of confidence that ol' Strick can pull this one out.
[ Parent ]
Those SUSA internals are screwy...
The 18-29 voter preferences and 21% of AAs supporting the Republican ticket?  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
John Adler appears on NYC broadcast
to trumpet his vote against Nancy Pelosi's agenda (as if anybody thinks about Pelosi when they vote).

I guess he wants to reach Ocean county? The rest of his district is in the Philly TV market.  

Colbert interviewed Rep. Perriello on his show tonight
Seems like a good sort. Not much of substance was said other than that the congressman doesn't support marijuana legalization. Not exactly a hot-button issue in Virginia this year.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
I
just saw an ad in the corner of the page for Governor Matt Blunt. Am I missing something?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Hmm
Strange. You sure it wasn't Roy?  
[ Parent ]
No, I once saw it too. It clearly said Matt Blunt.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Ugh
Don't tell me he is planning a comeback. Did it say Matt Blunt for gov? I think he has a book or something out, so maybe thats it, or he's promoting himself for some foundation or something.  
[ Parent ]
http://www.mattblunt.com


38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
Also, oh my..
Started reading the Wikipedia page on Matt Blunt, specifically the section on his term as Governor .. it reads like it was written by his PR team: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

Seriously needs a neutrality disputed warning.


38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Prior ruling overturned...voters WILL be able to see list of write-ins
The
stars are lining up for Lisa Murkowski.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
MO LT. Gov Peter Kinder's Wiki hacked
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...
Also, he appears to be running for gov in 2012. He told a group of college Republicans a few months ago he was running, and if you google his name, the description on his website says Peter Kinder for Governor, and it is devoted to attacking Jay Nixon.
Luckily Jay Nixon isn't fairing badly.
In a poll I saw, his approval is in the mid-50's.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Fixed.
Thanks for the heads-up.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
WV-Sen: Closing Manchin Ad Says Both Parties are "Dead Wrong"
The message here that I think is most effective is where he says he wants to shake up DC the way he shook up WV, implying he will still be the same as Senator as he is as Governor.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
What I think he'll do if elected
He'll toe the line of the WV electorate until 2012.  Then, if and when he's elected to a full term, he'll be able to ally more closely with party leadership.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Where are you getting
that these are "closing ads"? I've seen several others report closing ads, only to see later ads from the same pols.
[ Parent ]
I'm just assuming.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
CT poll: Blumenthal 46%, McMahon 45%
625 LVs, 3.5 MoE. Oh boy...

http://girlfromthehills.files....

Oh, it's just a joke. Phew.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Haha
Now if I did that with Coats 46%, Ellsworth 45%........I'd probably get banned.

There was that odd CT-Gov poll with the race tied that screamed outlier from a GOP group. I assumed those were the Senate numbers from that poll, but even those would probably show Blumenthal up 5 or so.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Right...
That's was Merriman-River for the CT Drudge-like site.

I assume they polled other races at the same time, and that should give us more of a sense as to how they compare to the totality of CT polling. And if they don't release certain results, my guess is that the site is holding them back.

[ Parent ]
You nearly gave me a heart attack.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Happy early Halloween guys

[ Parent ]
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown's closing ad


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Toomey 48-40 in latest tracking poll
Bounces back up to where he was two days after falling to 46-41 today.  

http://www.demconwatchblog.com...

And Corbett up 52-37...
Ouch, terrible numbers for Onorato.
[ Parent ]
Bah
I was hoping Monday's was an outlier, especially with the re-tightening yesterday and the Ipsos/Reuters poll that had them tied.  
[ Parent ]
Broken record on Clark County:
Biggest day yet on Wednesday (by over 1k), but we won't know the party breakdown until tomorrow.

Total vote = 21,891
Previous record Tues 10/26 = 20,641

Boulevard Mall 1,402
Centennial Center Trailer 1,360
East Las Vegas Community Center 267
Galleria at Sunset 2,444
Las Vegas Athletic Club 601
Las Vegas Outlet Center 874
Meadows Mall 1,490
Doolittle Comm. Ctr / Pearson Comm. Ctr 327
Regional Transportation Commission 483
Mobile Team 1 352
Mobile Team 2 1,243
Mobile Team 3 1,208
Mobile Team 4 863
Mobile Team 5 1,339
Mobile Team 6 1,097
Mobile Team 7 967
Mobile Team 8 810
Mobile Team 9 1,340
Trailer 1 1,035
Trailer 2 805
Trailer 3 871
Trailer 4 713

http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/...

Field Poll: Brown 49 Whitman 39
No Senate numbers out yet.  But I'd render a guess that it will be somewhere in the Boxer +5/6 range.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/...

Does Field often poll
over such a long period? Looks like almost two weeks!

The nonpartisan Field Poll surveyed 1,501 registered voters, including 1,092 likely voters, between Oct. 14 and Tuesday. It has an overall margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

[ Parent ]
Yes


WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
The September Field Poll
was a week long (14-21 Sep.)  Their last pre-election 2008 poll was from 18-28 Oct.  So yeah, they tend to be out in the field for a while.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
[ Parent ]
I was just about to post this.
Anyway, looks like Brown has this.

Senate numbers may be out tomorrow or they maybe out Friday. In the meantime, we will definitely get some more Prop 19 and LG numbers. Not sure what else they polled.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Winning Strategies
Hey guys-

I meant to bring this up a long time ago, but I was wondering if we would come out of this with a strong enough sample size of candidates in R districts, or at least tough toss up districts, that ran extremely progressive campaigns in the face of this wave and how they did.

Examples:
Tom Perriello
A-Grayson

Are there other candidates I'm just not aware of?  

Not this cycle necessarily, but over the past 14 years...
Peter DeFazio has had a very progressive record for a swing district.

Pomeroy was a rare Democrat to defend the health-care bill in a political ad.  

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
Kuster
not an incumbent though, and her district isn't really as tough as those.
[ Parent ]
I don't know about "extremely" but how about for starters . . .
Hall (NY-19)
Shea-Porter (NH-01)
Kuster (NH-02)
Trivedi (PA-06)
Lentz (PA-07)
Murphy (PA-08)
Kagan (WI-08)
Clark (MN-06)
Schauer(MI-07)
McNerney (CA-11)
Klein (FL-22)

Granted, these are, for the most part, purple districts.  

[ Parent ]
Kuster, Trivedi, Lentz and Clark
so far didn't win congressional seats (and it's not obvious that they will), other are mostly moderate-liberals, first elected and reelected in very good Democratic years (2006 - 2008) and very endangered now. It's absolutely not clear - how much of them will still be in Congress come January. In addition, as you correctly said, almost all of them came from"purple", not "red", districts. Really "red" can sometimes elect and even reelect Democrats, but only if these Democrats are "sufficently conservative"...  
[ Parent ]
Grayson's district went for Obama,
so - it's not especially conservative, Perriello's somewhat more conervative (though with some liberal  areas), but Perriello himself is much more "cautious liberal" then bombastic Grayson. And both were elected in very good Democratic year - their ability to survive is unclear now.
[ Parent ]
Q: Sink up 4, Rubio up 7
If only Meek wouldn't be so stubborn with his hopeless race..

[ Parent ]
If it weren't for Meek, Sink would be losing
AA turnout would have plummeted had Meek dropped out.
[ Parent ]
If AA are voting ONLY because black is in the race
 - it's called one word - racism. And in such case they are no better then southern segregationists of the past, who refused to vote if black was in the race.
[ Parent ]
Oh, for crying out loud
So, Latinos, Jews, Italians, Asians, etc. who tend to vote for one of their own are equivalent to people who won't vote for someone because of who they are?  Give me a break.
[ Parent ]
I gave you answer, not break
It seems absolutely normal to me, say, to prefer "one of your own" in primary, and absolutely different thing - to sit out general election because "your guy" isn't running there. The second thing is ... (i don't add to harsh words above, but believe me - a lot of them came to my mind)to ME. You are as entitled to your opinion as i am to mine.... But believe me - i would never, under no circumstances support a candidate advocating such sit-out strategy..
[ Parent ]
I
have had my number of disagreements with Paleo but he is 100% right. Honestly even if Meek dropped out Rubio would probably still win as Meek's name would still be on the ballot. Not only does Meek sure up AA votes (WTF, how on earth is that racism? Was first time voters in 08 racist?) but also brings out the Democratic base which all helps Sink is her very close battle to be Governor. I would vote for Crist but I do not want Meek to drop out. Honestly the Governor's mansion would probably be better than a Senate seat anyway. Especially when you consider who Sink's opponent is.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
And when you consider redistricting
Given a choice between a Crist and a Sink victory

I'd take Sink every time.

(And A-As voting for Meek is no different from Catholics voting for one of their own -- based on a belief that a candidate "understands my problems better". Based on such, A-As have rejected candidates such as Michael Steele; Catholics rejected John Kerry for a Baptist.)

[ Parent ]
What identity voting is based on is not...
...a candidate "understands my problems better."

It's based on, "I've been shit on my whole life BECAUSE I'm [fill in the blank], so hell yes it means something special to me to have the first [fill in the blank] Senator/Governor/President."

And that's not even determinative.  Black voters vote for white candidates over black candidates, and by BLOWOUT margins, all the time.  Just ask Ted Strickland, Ed Rendell, and Ben Cardin, all white men who crushed their black opponents among black voters.

People always vote first and foremost on a candidate's agenda, and being a member of the same historically oppresssed demographic is a bonus, but secondary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Seems we come to different conclusions
based on the same evidence. Southerners rejected LBJ for some westerner in '64, but voted in droves for a liberal from their own region (Carter) over a d*mnyankee (Ford).
[ Parent ]
It's all good and well
when you help candidate of your race to get elected - work in his canpaign and so on. But if you refuse to pull your ass from the chair and to vote ONLY because no candidate of your race is on ballot - for ME it's a racism. Covert, not overt as was the case with southern segregationists. But covert blackmail ("put one of us on ballot or i refuse to vote") is no better for ME then overt - "if you nominate black, i will vote for his opponent". And that's true of any race, religion, party  and so on: i repeat -  one thing is to help "your" candidate, another - sit out vote if none of "your guys" is on ballot. You hold another opinion? Fine, but don't impose it on me, please - i am entitled to my no less then you to yours...
[ Parent ]
Sheesh
When someone is arguing against your point, they're not "imposing" anything on you. Nobody here is in a position to impose anything on you. They're damn well entitled to argue that you are wrong, though.

I, for example, find your implication that, basically, all those black first-time voters for Obama were racists, misguided bordering on reprehensible. I don't feel you "imposed" that view on me by expressing it here, however. In turn, I'm not imposing anything on you when I respond that, in my mind, your equation of black voters who turn out to vote when they normally don't because they're enthused by the prospect of finally voting in a black Senator/President, and the overt racism of southern segregationists, is foolish and offensive.


38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
Let's stop here
For YOU - it's my arguments, which are quite logical for ME, that are "foolish and offensive". For me - it's YOUR "arguments" which are exactly the same words, and for me - the "fool" here is, surely, not me. You dislike my analogy, but, as i said before, for ME there is little difference between overt segregationist blackmail ("don't put black as a candidate or i refuse to vote for him") and covert one ("i will not vote if you don't put up my candidate (in this case - black)"). Ideological differences are fine reason to vote (or NOT vote) for candidate for ME, color of skin, nationality, religion - is NOT.

Shall we continue this useless "brawl", as a result of which we will still stick to our views? I don't see any sense..... You can think anything of me, that will not change my views an inch))))

[ Parent ]
It's Not So Much That He's In The Race....
..as the idea that Democrats would try to force Meek out of the race to help Charlie Crist could very easily be seen as a reason not to vote for any Democrats, or to not bother to vote since they won't even give a guy like Meek a chance. That would hurt Sink and and other Democrats in districts across the state who need African-American votes to get over the top.

 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
That's an interpretation i can agree with
and understand 100%. Unlike those given above))))
[ Parent ]
He had his chance
He couldn't get out of third let alone challenge Rubio.
[ Parent ]
FL-Sen
Does anyone believe that the race for the Senate in Florida is getting closer?  I don't see it.  Is it really expected that folks will, en mass, flee Meek at the end for Crist?  I honestly believe that Rubio locked this up a few weeks ago.
[ Parent ]
Internals suggest exactly that
Two weeks ago Meek was winning Dems 50-38 and now Crist is ahead 51-36.
[ Parent ]
No race in the country has had
As many twists as FL-Gov. Looking at their favorables, Sink is +4 while Scott is -16 (more than double than a fortnight ago). If the internals are correct Sink should win since she has more crossovers and wins indies.

Senate race does look like Dems bolting from Meek to Crist but we need more confirmation.

[ Parent ]
MI-07 (redux)
I'll post this again since it probably got lost further up the thread:

WLNS Channel 6 News Poll:

Mark Schauer (D) - 50%
Tim Walberg (R) - 43%

http://www.wlns.com/Global/sto...

Walberg's been bleeding independents for some time, and now it seems he's even losing moderate Republicans.  I'd love nothing more than for this to be a rout for Schauer, as it'd probably put Walberg away for good down the road.

MI-01
Not sure how this October Surprise is going to play in MI-01.  Personally, I don't think it's going to change much, but it keeps Benishek on defense for the remainder of the race:

WASHINGTON - The Michigan Democratic Party is filing a complaint against Dan Benishek, the Republican nominee in northern Michigan's 1st Congressional District, for what its chairman Mark Brewer called the "illegal use of a private aircraft."

Federal Election Commission rules prohibit House members and candidates from using noncommercial aircraft for campaigning. The state Democratic Party filed the complaint after a story in the Petoskey News-Review indicated that Benishek may have used a privately owned aircraft on two occasions. The plane is reportedly owned by Steven Zurcher, a Republican precinct delegate in Dickinson County on the Upper Peninsula and the owner of St. George Glass Co. in Iron Mountain. He is also a member of the Dickinson County Hospital Board of Trustees; Benishek, a general surgeon, practices at the hospital.

Benishek, a Republican newcomer from Crystal Falls, is locked in a tight race with what a recent Free Press poll showed to be a slim 42%-40% lead on state Rep. Gary McDowell, a Rudyard Democrat. An independent, Rose City entrepreneur Glenn Wilson, had 8% in the poll and remains a factor in the race as well. The election is Tuesday.

...

At the news conference today, Brewer said it was his belief that Benishek used the plane at least three times and maybe more, even though they had only the single Facebook entry as independent proof. He asked Benishek and the aircraft's owner to release flight schedules and logs so they could determine how often the plane had been used.


AK-Sen
Wha?!  Is it possible that Scott McAdams is actually within striking distance?  A new poll out, today, shows:

Write In - 34%
Scott McAdams - 29%
Joe Miller - 23%

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Is this an internal?
The article has a whole bunch of numbers from the last month I've never seen made available.

Regardless it's clear that Miller has collapsed even farther.  Now it's just up to AK voters who want to vote for McAdams to feel it's safe to do so... this election could go to either Murkowski or McAdams but I really doubt Miller can get to 30%.

[ Parent ]
Hays is a bad pollster...
Terrible track record in 2008. But it's all about perceptions. This is strikingly close to the exact scenario Mayor McAdams wants; he's not close enough that he's no longer an underdog, but he's not far away enough that he's not worth going to the trouble of voting for. With him in second place and Miller in third, there's no reason for Democrats to vote tactically for Sen. Murkowski. He has no reason to expect Miller's base will vote tactically for Murkowski, because the Tea Party has no notion of tactics and they won't dare vote for a tax-and-spend lib'rul (or whatever Miller is calling her these days...She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named?).

Hell, McAdams is within the margin of error in this. That's huge. The poll is probably crap, but he should run with it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
As long as she has a competent GOTV operation, I think Murkowski has this
Miller's free-falling faster than a fat lady off a mountain, and there just aren't enough Democrats in Alaska for McAdams to run-up the necessary #s. I do think there's a decent chance McAdams finishes second, though, and if that's the case, he probably has a future down the line.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Afternoon Edition) | 532 comments

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