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SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 8:08 AM EDT


  • AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov (Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos): Rodney Glassman (D) 38, John McCain 56; Terry Goddard (D) 44, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 52

  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (Landmark Communications): Michael Thurmond (D) 35, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 56; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 47

  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Michael Thurmond (D) 34, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 58; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 49

  • HI-Gov (Ward Research): Neil Abercrombie (D) 51, Duke Aiona (R) 43

  • HI-01 (Ward Research): Colleen Hanabusa (D) 45, Charles Djou (R-inc) 48

  • IN-Sen (EPIC/MRA): Brad Ellsworth (D) 35, Dan Coats (R) 53

  • LA-Sen (Magellan): Charlie Melancon (D) 35, David Vitter (R-inc) 52

  • MA-04, MA-10 (UNH for the Boston Globe): Barney Frank (D-inc) 46, Sean Bielat (R) 33; Bill Keating (D) 37, Jeff Perry (R) 33

  • MD-01 (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 40, Andy Harris (R) 40

  • MD-Gov (Abt SRBI for the Washington Post): Martin O'Malley (D-inc) 54, Bob Ehrlich (R) 40

  • MI-01 (EPIC/MRA): Gary McDowell (D) 40, Dan Benishek (R) 42

  • MI-03 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Justin Amash): Pat Miles (D) 30, Justin Amash (R) 49

  • MN-Gov (St. Cloud State University): Mark Dayton (D) 40, Tom Emmer (R) 30, Tom Horner (I) 19

  • NE-02 (Wiese Research): Tom White (D) 39, Lee Terry (R-inc) 44

  • NY-Sen-B (PDF) (Marist): Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56, Joe DioGuardi (R) 38

  • OH-Gov (U. Cincinnati for Ohio media): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47, John Kasich (R) 49

  • OR-Gov (Elway Research): John Kitzhaber (D) 45, Chris Dudley (R) 44

  • OR-01, OR-05 (Elway Research): David Wu (D-inc) 51, Rob Cornilles (R) 38; Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 50, Scott Bruun (R) 38

  • SC-Gov (Insider Advantage): Vincent Sheheen (D) 37, Nikki Haley (R) 51

  • SD-AL (Mason-Dixon): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 43, Kristi Noem (R) 45

  • SD-AL (Nielson Brothers): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 42, Kristi Noem (R) 40

  • TX-Gov (University of Texas): Bill White (D) 40, Rick Perry (R-inc) 50

    • Bonus: UT also tested a wide range of down-ballot races.

  • VA-02 (Christopher Newport University): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell (R) 42

    • Margins & Errors: The DSCC supposedly has some internal with Alexi Giannoulias up 2 in IL-Sen, but this is some NRCC-style crap with no details other than the toplines... Some MI-Gov poll shows that the race still sucks... Frank Guinta is touting an internal in NH-01 that supposedly has him up 53-37, but there isn't even word of the pollster's name
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition) | 469 comments
    Shock ID-1 Poll
    Mason-Dixon: Minnick only up 44-41, seems that he has a good chance to lose in the end.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    Chance
    Wouldn't say good.
    [ Parent ]
    I am so shocked!
    I done went and wet my britches!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Minnick
    A month ago, Minnick led by 10 pts in Mason-Dixon poll

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    And?
    With a week to go he still leads.
    [ Parent ]
    What is your end game
    with your constant reporting of polls without links and with over-interpretation in favor of Republicans as to their implications?  Do you want us all to leap off of bridges?  Speaking for myself, I may do that on November 2, but not a day sooner... not even if you show me an unlinked Republican poll with Barney Frank only up 7 (gasp and swoon!).  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Excellent Question!
    What is his end game?  He's either a Republican trying to drive a narrative at a micro level, or someone who just is going to look for the negative, worst-case scenario.  I've got no problem with someone like Mark being so pessimistic -- he's a long-time SSP member, and someone who has worked for Democrats for a long time.

    More broadly, when I see anyone being so negative about every poll coming out, I want to ask them -- What have you done this election cycle to help Democrats?  How much have you contributed?  How many phone calls have you made?  How many doors have you knocked on?  If you have done those things, good.  So have I and a lot of people here.  If you haven't, well, there's a good place to start to try to prevent the worst from happening.

    And Spiderdem, if the very worst does happen, don't jump off a bridge next Tuesday night!  Just drink very heavily, pass out for a few months, and revive yourself in time to see the new Republican Congress fuck things up like we know they will!!

    [ Parent ]
    he's def a GOPer
    While Mark is a pessimist with too much pessimism, Moshem has never a good word to say about any Dem and criticizes every Dem.  He also ends too many sentences with exclamation points, but that's probably a sin only to me.
    [ Parent ]
    And also to
    Jake Jarmel and Mr. Lippman, Elaine's boss at Pendant Publishing. They hate exclamation points!  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Heck, the only exclamation points that I'm allowed to use in my books
    is used in code, e.g.

    #!/bin/bash

    [ Parent ]
    Moshe's a troll and Mark's a gloom and doomer
    But that doesn't mean they're not, in large part, right.  The House numbers are not holding up in many races, and the generic still sucks.  I think we're looking at a 50 seat plus loss.
    [ Parent ]
    Minnick's race tightening so much
    In the home stretch to me says a 50 seat loss should just be expected now.  ::sigh::  Me and Jose Cuervo are going to have a great time next Tuesday night.
    [ Parent ]
    maybe ill make it beer
    I can have a drinking game that way; drink everytime the Dems loses a seat, two drinks for every pick-up.
    [ Parent ]
    um, andrew - i believe you're a minnesotan
    if dayton wins, you should be enjoying your drink of choice with some very festive democrats at the hilton.
    [ Parent ]
    Im not sure if I want to be in public
    In 2008 I was black out drunk rolling down the skyways like they were  hills.  This year I'll be loud and angry all night so Ill keep myself in check and keep my loud mouth at home.  Although if Bachmann's numbers aren't looking good Ill haul butt on over because losing even 100 seats wouldn't put a damper on DFLers  rejoicing the defeat of Bachmann and Emmer.

    Plus I can't afford $5 a beer this time around.

    [ Parent ]
    Bad nights
    I remember '94, and I'm old enough to remember '80.  This too shall pass.
    [ Parent ]
    I just remember how happy I was Election Night in 2008...
    It's hard to watch the head-stompers, blogger-cuffers, woman-punchers, racists, and anti-intellectuals walk away with this.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    92/94 all over again
    I'm furious at the person who's largely responsible for this -- the political incompetent in the white house -- but I've avoided getting into it until the election is over.  That's why I've stayed away from dKos.  But I will return with a vengance come Nov. 3.
    [ Parent ]
    I do not think that your statement is fair...
    "the political incompetent in the White House."  What was he supposed to do?  People are angry because his magic wand does not work correctly. It took FDR longer than 2 years to get out of the Great Depression.  Most people these days seem to have the ADHD.  I could go on but will not.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    Also, I might add that...
    it is statements like yours that made me leave Daily Kos for good. Democrats never seem to stick together.  We have Republicans blaming us for the mess they created and we jump in on the bashing... Sad really...

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    Agree 100%. The LAST thing we need right now, or ever, is...
    ...a circular firing squad.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Yep, statements like Paleo's are all over DK.
    It gets old. Nothing like armchair presidenting.
    [ Parent ]
    As I said, I'm not going to get into it now
    Let's just say, when you choose not to take on your opposition and fight, you cede the playing field to them.
    [ Parent ]
    And when you lie and distort, it is easier to cast blame.

    [ Parent ]
    im right there with ya
    I'm attending my caucus in 2012 only so I can write in Hillary's name.  I'll vote for him in the GE obviously, though.
    [ Parent ]
    This
    is horribly off topic and an awful derail. One of the reasons this blog is my fave is because I don't have to listen to this stuff, just horse race, very little to no presidential politics.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    these days
    Most people these days seem to have the ADHD.

    I agree, but I'd leave out "these days". Voters have always been fickle and have always judged the president mostly by the state of the economy, which the president can't do much about. If you look at a timeline of Reagan's approval ratings, there's an almost perfect negative relationship with the unemployment rate.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    People naturally have short-term outlooks.
    Education helps people think more long-term, but does not fully cure it.

    On the other hand, this year, the Republicans are whole-heartedly encouraging people to think very short-term.

    And this is why they are bastards.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    for me
    Obama did wave his magic wand and he did do a lot of great things.  Problem is, he never talked up anything and these bills that should be credited with saving the economy are incredibly unpopular because no one has defended them!  Poll after poll shows Americans favor our health insurance reform proposals, but you say health care reform and they shriek.  That's Obama's fault.  He's the president so why are we hearing from Eric Cantor whose position is so inconsequential to American governance that I can't even think of what it is.

    It took him 20 months to do his first Presidential address, and it was on Iraq.  How fucking clueless!  He just simply will not use the presidency as a bully pulpit to get his agenda passed and that is exactly his problem because then we lose the messaging and then all of a sudden everyone thinks the stimulus was a waste.

    And then DADT perfectly shows how he worries too much about process instead of politics.  Nobody cares how shit gets done, we just want it done!  Wrap it up, call it a victory and get yours gays to get out the vote.

    [ Parent ]
    Andrew,
    I disagree with most of what you've written, but I don't want to get into a back and forth here. This isn't appropriate for SSP, right?
    [ Parent ]
    This is a total ref call for the mods
    I've been here many many a day but I have no idea if discussing Presidential White House strategy and our opinions of it is okay.  I am here so my context should imply I am discussing this in relation to why we're going to get slaughtered in a week and a few hours.  And furthermore, the Obama analysis absolutely trickles down to what I think too many House and Senate candidates are doing, being god damned wusses. So if this were in the proper context of me saying this about our House candidates, then I get called a purist.

    And this is absolutely 100% unlike DailyKos.  I could care less what he passed at this point, just at the fucking least talk it up.  This is Politics 101, sell your accomplishments if you got them.  Well, that's not fair, a lot of our vulnerable Dems voted against these accomplishments.  ::sigh::  

    I'll be done and just move onto another thread now so I dont piss off too many people nor the mods, I really didnt want to go through 300 comments when the other thread is up to 73 already.  This thread is sooooooo this morning.  :)

    [ Parent ]
    He, and a lot of other people
    seem unwilling to get out of the political thinking and understanding of the electorate and sense of the popular issues that worked for 2005-2009.

    Thing is, centrism in high public office has a short life.  While average people profess to love centrism, the history is one of fast infatuations followed by just as rapid letting go of it as soon as the mess that precipitates it is minimally fixed up.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't Forget 2004
    I mean, I suppose Congress-wise the Democrats did OK that year, but someone telling me that the morning after would be like someone saying to Jackie Kennedy that that was a nice day for a parade.

    I was an undergrad in 1994, so, yes, I remember it all too well.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    How do you figure?


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    its not about being right
    It's about what this board is about.  It's a progressive board to discuss politics.  If the only thing someone provides is a GOP slant and is negative toward all Dem candidates and campaigns it just not what we're here for.  Most of our other GOP posters are more even handed.
    [ Parent ]
    Yup, rdw is right. The problem is certain commenters here are...
    ...clearly HOPEFUL to see their predictions of Democratic doom come true.

    Tekzilla predicts doom all the time, but he clearly is always panicked and depressed about it.  At least there's no question he's on our side.

    But there are certain others who predict the worst-case scenarios for us, or even beyond that (93 seats!), and are clearly unbothered by such an outcome.  And that's very suspicious to me.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    now he uses bad grammar too?
    Don't even get me started on the number of people here who think "anyways" is a word.
    [ Parent ]
    if he were a Dem reporting the numbers
    No one here would say anything because we apparently only want to hear the bad news if its coming from our own.  He doesn't even really editorialize his comments, he just tells us polls without linking to them and that in itself isn't anything to get all hot and bothered over.
    [ Parent ]
    He's "editorialized"
    Which is fine.  But playing cute is not.
    [ Parent ]
    Agree,
    I don't see the problem.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    its called
    Margin of error.  Look it up.  He was probably not up a full 10 last time.  He's probably up more than 3 this time.  Margin of error.
    [ Parent ]
    Well, if you're going to bring STATISTICS into the conversation ... :)

    [ Parent ]
    lol
    My apologies.
    [ Parent ]
    there is always margin of error
    And polls should always be adjusted for that.  However, the trendlines are what's worrisome as if you have two polls conducted with the exact same methodology and the one a month later shows a sizable diminishing in Dem results, then that is a clear trend in the Dem doing worst.

    And here is a stats question for someone who knows this stuff.  Can you blame trendlines on margin of error by saying the race didn't get more competitive, we just got a different sample?  To me that doesn't sound right because unless you change your likely voter turn-out model, you should be polling almost the exact same sample of people everytime.

    [ Parent ]
    Two thoughts
    1) even with the exact same methodology, it's difficult to get a sample with the same components of voters. If it's the same pollster and the comparison is between two polls one month apart, within the MoE, that's variation.

    (aka, if you flip a coin 100 times, sometimes you'll get 60 heads, sometimes you'll get 60 tails. That's random variation.)

    However, if it's the same pollster, and the comparison is between three polls that show a steady trend, even if all 3 are within the MoE of each other, variation becomes a heck of a lot more unlikely as a cause.

    (aka, if you flip a coin 100 times, get 60 heads the first time, 50 heads the second time, 40 heads the third time, it makes me wonder whether something is making one side of the coin heavier than the other.)

    2) I'm not convinced that some pollsters use the same methodology from poll to poll, sp. Rasmussen.

    [ Parent ]
    Big Surprise There!
    The next poll in AL-02 will show Bobby Bright behind or barely ahead as well.  Don't be surprised if Dan Boren is next.  Yet we fall for the same thing over and over, believing polls that come out around Labor Day showing double-digit leads for conservadems in crimson red districts, never once suspecting things will change as soon as the Republican hits the airwaves.
    [ Parent ]
    Polls
    have been showing Bright slightly ahead or in Roby's internal slightly behind for a while now.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Just A Couple Weeks Ago.....
    Polls were floating around showing Bright up double digits.  I don't recall seeing anything contrary since.  Certainly possible I missed something though.  Hard for to cheer too jubilantly for these guys though.  I have in the past, but have come to terms that they will never be with on us on any issue of significance even if they agree with us.  It'll always be about "distancing themselves" from leadership.  So what good are they?
    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    You really have no idea what you are talking about.

    But in your mind, a candidate who has raised $32,000, and has run zero TV ads, and has no GOTV operation is going to win over Dan Boren!?!?!?

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    When you're a Democrat in Idaho there is always a possibility you'll lose.
    But he has a lousy opponent and has yet to trail.

    Might as well give this standard caution.  Beware of any individual poll.  Particularly since there is so much volatility, so many bad polls, and just because everything is so overpolled you can find a results to support just about anything.

    The sky may in fact be falling.  But I'd get more than one weather report to make sure.

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

    [ Parent ]
    "The sky may in fact be falling. But I'd get more than one weather report to make sure."
    This quote, courtesy of Taget, wins this thread.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    Again...
    ...I can't stress this enough. Every poll taken right before Election Day is shocking. As if either candidate could win. It's been that way ever since I've been paying attention to elections.

    In the end though, the outcome of the election depends upon the fundamentals of the race (the demographics of the electorate; who's been leading the most up til now; voter turnout projections). Heck, with the advent of early voting, I would even question whether polling this late matters at all.

    Almost every poll from now on til Nov. 2 that is labeled "shocking" isn't really all that shocking.

    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: Uh oh, Ralston tweets bad news for Dems in Clark County on Monday......
    Big early voting day in Clark yesterday, but Ralston tweets Dems had only 400-vote turnout advantage.  That means the GOP made gains in percentage turnout.

    Every day should pick up this week, with the biggest numbers at the end, so we're going to know a lot by the weekend regarding Nevada turnout.

    By the way, Ralston hasn't said anything on Washoe yet.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    i just cant get worries about this
    I mean I don't expect 100% of send to vote for Reid or 100% of GOP to vote for angle.  Turnout just isn't helping me read the tea leaves here.
    [ Parent ]
    Yikes
    Very not good news there. Does anyone have the skinny on whether the Angle or Heck campaigns had a big GOTV push yesterday?

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    I didn't hear anything...
    I'm trying to figure out what happened yesterday. Whatever the case, Dems really need to ramp up GOTV for the rest of the week!

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
    [ Parent ]
    It's just one day, user DCCyclone
    You've talked eloquently about the dangers of pointing to a single day in early voting.

    While it's easy to feel a sense of panic when one day isn't as good as hoped, it is just one day.

    [ Parent ]
    True, I guess you're right...
    I mean yesterday, some of us felt on top of the world because we won Washoe for the first time. And today, we're panicking because the Clark numbers sucked. We just need to push harder in this last week. I'll just have to take off some more time to GOTV some more.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
    [ Parent ]
    Just to let you know, WE THANK YOU for all your hard work there......
    Not just you, but all the committed volunteers trying to get Harry reelected.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Thank you!
    I want to thank you for all of your hard work in fighting the fight in Nevada. Every single voter that you can drag to the polls is critical. It is going to be tight and as they say in sports "leave it all out on the field". I have been canvassing in VA-05 and constantly am reminding people that votes do matter and add up. VA-05 is not as critical as NV Senate though so keep it up.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Yup, but I'm starting to have a bad feeling generally, not just in NV-Sen but also...
    ...everywhere.  Feels like the bottom might be dropping out, except for pockets where we're holding up like MN-Gov and CA-Gov and a few other places.  It's the weight of everything, the constantly newly-vulernable seats, the polls showing people vulnerable or even losing who seemed in good shape a short time ago, and so on.  Some of the data is crap, but the volume and totality of it is overwhelming.

    I keep hoping we'll keep our House losses "down" to "only" 45 seats, but I'm already thinking "closer to 60" or even higher.

    And on the Senate side I really am nervous about WA-Sen and CA-Sen, I'll be chewing fingernails over those on election night because I doubt we'll see polls showing Murray and Boxer pulling any further ahead than they are now.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I think we're okay in those senate races
    If Faux/Ras has Boxer up by 4, she's in good shape.  The house is another matter.
    [ Parent ]
    Are You Turning Into Me?
    Even after all your chest-pounding bluster, you write a wet blanket post like this?!?!
    [ Parent ]
    Nope, not even close. I'm saying up to 60, not 93. You apparently don't see a difference...
    ...between the two.  Everyone else does.

    On balance I still think it will be in the 50s.

    But I'm simply staying in line with what the pros are predicting, nothing more.  They do this for a living, it's all they do all day, every day, so there's merit in their work.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Also
    a lot of his ninety are safe seats while he leaves off many seats that would clearly be lost if we did in fact lose ninety seats.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I Got Caught Up In A Number Of Polls.....
    ....that I should have known would be obsolete come election day (NY-20 and KY-06, for examples), and left off the list a number of Democrats who are now officially in the danger zone.  I'm sure several on my list are safe at this point at the same time as others are back in danger, so I still think my general calculation of 90-95 endangered seats holds.
    [ Parent ]
    There is a difference between 90-95 "endangered"
    seats and losing 93 seats.  Are you now saying the Democrats won't actually lose 93 seats after all, but were merely pointing out those seats were "endangered"?  Are you revising your 93 seat loss projection downward?  

    By the way, I do actually enjoy reading your posts since I believe you are sincere.  That is in direct contrast to these Republican operatives (paid and otherwise) who come on here and think it's funny to stir up trouble by posting the latest bad news.

    [ Parent ]
    I find it rather hilarious that Republicans would pay people
    to concern troll blogs.

    Then again, they paid people to protest the Florida recounts back in 2000.

    As for "seats in play", note that I had about 100 seats on my personal big board back in 2008.  Only about 30 of them changed hands.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Still Saying 93-Seat Loss.....
    Rereading my post I can see where you'd think I was hedging by merely listing 90-95 endangered seats.  I'm sticking with the 90-95 number for predicted losses.
    [ Parent ]
    Another fear -- momentum shift
    It's certainly possible that what we see from some polls is the start of a classic last minute momentum shift, e.g., if I remember right, '94 didn't look so bad until a week before election day.

    But it's impossible to know -- especially with the variability of different polls on the same races -- whether it's happening now.

    Still, I wonder who owns Maalox, and how their stock is doing....

    [ Parent ]
    Unlike '94, we saw this coming for a long time
    That probably lessens any last minute shift.  But looks like it will be bad enough without it.
    [ Parent ]
    OK, OK, calm down...
    I figured out what happened. Look at the "temporary" early vote sites yesterday...

    Boulder City, Sun City Anthem, Sun City Summerlin, Moapa Valley...

    All GOP strongholds.

    Now I see why they had such a good day yesterday... More early vote locations were in their terrain! And looking at today's early vote schedule, today may also be somewhat rough. However, I see the last three days of early voting will be in friendlier locations... The East Side, North Las Vegas, Old Henderson.

    Hopefully, this is more an indication of where people are voting than how.


    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for that info...
    because I felt like I was going to throw up for a moment there.  

    I feel like I am in the Twilight Zone with this election.  The more stuff I hear; the more I cannot believe it. It is almost surreal. People like Tancredo actually close to becoming a governor in Co with Latino votes. I would be no more suprised if someone told me that Rush is winning as gov of MO with black support.  Or Sharon Angle and that guy in Fl who should be in jail could represent one of the largest states in the US.

    What in the heck is going on? The country is going through something but it would take some real pschoanalysis to figure it out.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    Al Franken is in the Senate and the guy in the White House is black with an odd name. Crazy stuff happens when people are mad.
    [ Parent ]
    Reactionary moods
    never make any sense, because they're all projection or denialism.

    They always begin as scapegoatings of some group and end with having to accept that everyone (the reactionaries themselves, particularly) was to blame.  As per usual when illusions have to be given up, the phenomena tend to fit to Kubler-Ross stages.

    [ Parent ]
    Turnout at those mobile early voting sites
    Thanks for background. FWIW those 4 EV sites had a total turnout of 4,514 voters yesterday, about 22% of the daily total.  

    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
    [ Parent ]
    Good catch!
    And considering how much of the total they were, it's actually not so bad that Dems ended up barely ahead yesterday. Again, the cards were DEFINITELY stacked against us yesterday with the early voting locations. Today may also be a little rough, but probably not as bad as yesterday. Starting today, the Summerlin Whole Foods will be open for early voting... I have a good feeling about that one. ;-)

    And starting Wednesday, I'm seeing more early vote sites in friendlier areas. Again, hopefully this means we'll close well... Especially if we can bump up turnout in The East Side & North LV!

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    It's a natural feeling
    Don't worry, DCCyclone, I've got the same feeling in reverse.  It's the bad news for my side that freaks me out - I keep going OMG, PN-Sen close, OH-Gov close, CT-Sen out of it, WV-Sen, slipping behind, etc.  Truly, I have no idea how election day will turn out.  To me, the suckiest thing about elections is that roughly half of everybody is disappointed with the outcome.  I don't mind when obnoxious cheerleaders (on either side) get let down, but when it's a bunch of politics junkies at a place like this...well, if it's a really bad Dem night, I just can't imagine why anybody would want to come here to gloat and I would actually want to punch somebody who did so.  I wish we could all wake up Nov 3rd happy about things - does that make sense?

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Sit back, relax, and enjoy the fact that
    no matter what happens, there will always be crazy sh** happening in politics to entertain you.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    Thank you so much for this comment
    On a visceral level, as a partisan, the thing I fear the most about losing an election is having the other side rub it in my face, while the media runs away with the narrative that my party is DOOOOOOOOOOMED.  I suppose that's only natural in an era where the only thing about politics anyone seems to care about is the mindless day-to-say horserace.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    They said we were doomed after 2004
    Then they said the Republicans were doomed after 2008.

    Both statements have been conclusively proven to be loads of bull.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    you forgot about the 50% of people
    who just don't give a shit!
    [ Parent ]
    I agree. NV-Senate is scarying me. If the polls show a tie on NOV 2
    then Angle will most likely win. Seeing PPP numbers in KY scares me too. Looks like Rs and Indys are swallowing the bad candidates and breaking for newcomers.
    [ Parent ]
    Not necessarily...
    At this point, perhaps over 1/3 of the Nevada electorate has already voted. Now Election Day voters may very well decide the final fate of a number of races here, but there are far more factors at play than raw "momentum" and "breaking for newcomers".

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
    [ Parent ]
    You should expect some closing of any gap anyway
    If we have an early vote advantage now, that means fewer of our voters are going to vote later, so the other side is going to make up some of the gap going forward.

    This should not be a cause for concern.  This is simple mathematics.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Reid's final ad...

    Hopefully, this helps with those last few undecideds left. I'm having a hard time seeing so many of them break for Angle...

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    NY-20
    Siena: Gibson up on Murphy 51-42. Murphy wasn't up 17, a few weeks ago, Gibson isn't up 9 now, Siena = crap.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    Link
    On the right hand side.

    http://www.siena.edu/sri

    Don't know what's reponsible for the switch, but it's not good news.  Siena is not a bad polling outfit.

    [ Parent ]
    The Siena poll is disheartening
    But I agree that a 26 point swing in the district is unlikely.  Either their poll before was an outlier, or this one is.  Either way, it makes the result hard to interpret.  I still think Murphy is probably slightly ahead, but that's just tea leaf reading.  Gibson's internal poll in which he lead within the margin of error from just over a week ago was from POS, which is a poor quality IVR poll and I think tends to be more outlier-y than good quality partisan pollsters like Tarrance and GQR...
    [ Parent ]
    Ever hear of volatility?
    I think it's especially true of House elections -- especially this year, where once seemingly safe incumbents have cratered all over the country.

    Is the cell phone the only way you have to access the Internet?

    [ Parent ]
    Siena gained infamy in '06...
    ...for showing Sweeney up by 14 three weeks out. They showed Gillibrand by 3 one week out, and she went on to win by 6. That's haunting me right now, because the timing and swing is fairly similar (with the differences being that the Murphy lead was all the way back in September and the Gibson lead is much larger than KG's at this time 4 years ago).

    Someone posted here yesterday that a Murphy staffer told them their internals still showed a lead (but down to single digits). I remain hopeful, but - and I hate to say this - we could use some late-breaking oppo tidbits on Gibson.

    29, Male, Dem, NY-20  

    [ Parent ]
    Yikes!
    Here's a link if anyone needs it. One of these polls are outliers, Gibson did not gain that much ground.  Still looks like Murphy's done though. I thought he was fairly safe.

    http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    It's Gillibrand's district
    That might save him.  But it was Republican for years before '06.  We might be looking at 4 house seats lost in NY.
    [ Parent ]
    Gillibrand
    may not win the district this year. My comfort about this poll is that there is NO chance he went from being behind 17 to leading by 9 over the course of weeks. One of these polls or possible both have to be outliers. Then again they nailed the special. I don't know what to make of this.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    ?
    May not win a house race, or may not win the district in her senate race?
    [ Parent ]
    Sorry
    She may not win THIS district. She will definitely win statewide.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I find it hard to believe she won't win NY-20
    in her senate race.  And that she won't win it handily.
    [ Parent ]
    Just
    speculating. I mean if she only wins 60-40 statewide then she would definitely lose a district like this had she not represented it. Her being from there will help, she'll probably win it but I don't think it will be a blowout.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Her approval is at 60 in NY-20
    She'll carry the 20th with ease. But I think those coattails will be slim given that no one has considered her opponent to have a legitimate shot. It's not like moderates in NY-20 are really weighing Gillibrand vs. DioGuardi.

    29, Male, Dem, NY-20  
    [ Parent ]
    Part of it
    might be that the NRCC recently went up in NY-20, right? So I would think that the NRCC probably realized the race was tighter than 17 points, and then their investment might have been worth another few points for Gibson.

    I'd like to see Siena poll NY-01 again, given Bishop's similar lead there last time.

    20, GOP, NH-02

    [ Parent ]
    By definition, 1 in 20 polls should be outliers
    Otherwise, there's a different kind of problem with the polling organization.
    [ Parent ]
    Well, if true
    this is where the new House majority is coming from. UGH.
    [ Parent ]
    Essex/Warren/Washingon Counties
    The one really odd thing about this poll is Murphy's collapse in his home region of Essex/Warren/Washington counties. Those were his best counties in the special election, and Siena showed him up 59-31 in those counties in September. I have a hard time believing he now trails by double-digits in his backyard, but those counties comprise only about a fifth of the district.

    Do I think the race has tightened? Yes, though I doubt it was ever a 17-point race to begin with. Gibson's advertising is getting sufficient play on the airwaves and there's always that registration gap to hurt us in a midterm. But I have a hard time believing that Murphy is getting wiped out up north.

    29, Male, Dem, NY-20  

    [ Parent ]
    i could see it.
    I've been home a few times since labor day and could see more and more Gibson signs.  More and more people angry about economy.  Etc.
    (note home us warren-Washington county for me).

    Ny20 is traditional GOP ground and prime area to Target for send when things are good.  It's bad times now, Murphy needs to work his star off for 6 more days to have a chance.

    As for Gillibrand, she's not viewed as local girl makes good as much as we'd thinkdl.  Saw more palladino signs to be honest.  I didn't see any ads she cut for Murphy (i only visit on weekends so I may have missed them.)

    [ Parent ]
    The same poll gives her a 60%+ approval rating

    [ Parent ]
    yes but tgat wont help murphy
    She's well liked I agree.  But she's pretty much dis-associated herself from ny20 since she's been in the senate.  Which makes sense, since she's statewide now.  But she would have wiped the floor with Gibson, but Murphy struggles.  It's just different races really.
    [ Parent ]
    She is still on the ballot though
    The Marist poll has her crushing DioGuardi Upstate in general. She will likely do even better in NY-20. That can only help.
    [ Parent ]
    I was on vacation in Lake Placid a couple weeks ago . .
    and saw tons of signs for BOTH candidates.  Perhaps no enthusiasm gap for either side?  
    [ Parent ]
    Signs
    I leave near the Dutchess/Columbia border and traverse the length of both counties extensively, and at least in my part of the district, Gibson has had oodles of signs all year. So I don't detect an increase in enthusiasm from that; it's just been a sign-happy campaign. Billboards, signs at intersections, signs in actual voters' yards. Signs everywhere for this guy. What I have - finally - seen in the last two weeks the deployment of Murphy signs in various yards in Columbia and Dutchess.

    Murphy-Gibson will come down to GOTV, and I like his chances there, having been through that war in the past against a veteran pol in Jim Tedisco. I had hoped we'd have this one sewn up so that I could spend the final week helping Hall down in the 19th, but this cycle the damn playing field only gets wider - never smaller.

    29, Male, Dem, NY-20  

    [ Parent ]
    Gibson leading by 9?!!!
    Holy shit.  This poll is going to make me look back at just about every district in my rankings.  I had this as a Likely D seat last week.  I feel like I'm about to go on a Mark/Tekzilla binge because of this one.  

    Today's update is getting delayed.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    We
    need PPP or someone else to poll ASAP to confirm whether this is accurate or not. This would be a good time for Murphy to release a poll showing him ahead. One of their polls was wrong, he did not go from trailing by 17 to leading by 9 of the course of weeks. We will probably not see any other numbers before the election though.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I have never seen such crazy polling as this cycle
    But Siena are generally reliable.
    [ Parent ]
    Unlike that bad news CA-20 poll
    The NY-20 has what I need to put this race in perspective: Other polls that were conducted not that long ago for compare and contrast.

    Take the Gibson campaign internal from POS, conducted Oct. 17-18. It has:

    Chris Gibson (R) 44%
    Scott Murphy (D) 42%

    Adjusting for partisan bias:

    Scott Murphy (D) 44%
    Chris Gibson (R) 39%

    Or take the DCCC internal from Grove Insight, conducted Sept. 28-30. It has:

    Scott Murphy (D) 51%
    Chris Gibson (R) 38%

    Adjusting for partisan bias:

    Scott Murphy (D) 46%
    Chris Gibson (R) 40%

    Those polls pretty much say the same thing. So, am I really to believe that Gibson has swung about 10-11 points positive in about a week, starting from the POS poll? Not impossible, but plausible?

    [ Parent ]
    Links
    Please don't be mad at me, my stupid phone can't post links, sorry.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    Nate this morning...
    I respect him tremendously, and a lot of what he writes is great for discussion.  What does everyone think about this statement?:

    The reason that Democrats are likely to hold the Senate but not the House - the necessary and sufficient reason - is because only one-third of the Senate is up for re-election every year. If the whole Senate were up for re-election, Democrats would lose it and lose it badly.

    Could be right
    I don't know about badly.  But the national generic numbers continue to suck, so I can see where he's coming from.
    [ Parent ]
    Probably fair
    Honestly it is probably a very fair statement to make. I mean right now this year could Tester, McCaskill, both Nelsons, Webb, Hagan, Baucus, Johnson, Stabenow, Franken, Begich all win very comfortably? I would say no and if you were to toss in uncertainties elsewhere it would be a brutal election. We are saved by the fact that much of the 2010 map is in traditionally Democratic states and the GOP is playing offense in PA, CO, IL, WA and NV which are at worst evenly titled.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Very comfortably? No way.
    Half of those you mentioned barely won the first time, and several will probably not win comfortably next time, though I think only a few might lose.
    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely.
    Dems are at a disadvantage in the Senate because every state has the same two Senators. In the House, the bigger states have more representation so California isn't treated the same as Wyoming.  

    Given the current political atmosphere, I don't expect states to have split representation of one from each party. Meaning the 30+ Red States will elect two Republican Senators for the near future.  

    [ Parent ]
    So what?
    The GOP would have been wiped out in 2006 and 2008.
    [ Parent ]
    Teabaggers saved the Senate for the Dems...
    Dems will probably hold 52 seats.  Castle would have beat Coons, Norton would have beat Bennet, Lowden surely would have beat Reid.  
     
    [ Parent ]
    Yes, but...
    If that were the case, the seats would be up every 2 years and we might win them all back in 2012.  It's a pointless hypothetical and I would think Nate would avoid those.
    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely correct
    That's why the framers were so smart.  They set up a system of checks and balances so complete that, among other things, it prevented a momentary electoral spike from completely restructuring the legislative branch.
    [ Parent ]
    Thank god they did
    Although sometimes a party is unlucky enough to have a bad Senate map where they are very exposed like Democrats in 1994 and Republicans in 2008.  
    [ Parent ]
    Faux/Pulse/Ras polls
    48-46  Raese

    50-43  Paul

    47-43  Kasich

    43-41  Kirk

    50-41  Brown

    48-44  Boxer

    53-42  Blumenthal

    47-44  Malloy

    http://www.foxnews.com/politic...

    Pretty much in line...
    with other polling, actually, aside from West Virginia.  

    20, GOP, NH-02
    [ Parent ]
    Not
    bad numbers actually. It shows that WV is definitely closer than Ras showed last week. Also shows Brown lead is insurmountable and Boxer is in good shape.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    So predictable on WV
    The rest are fine. People talk about Alexi being in the low forties but Kirk just can't pull away. Big push from Obama and GOTV WILL save IL. I always had Paul winning KY.
    [ Parent ]
    Fox/Pulse
    I don't know why we even bother posting them. It's not like they are showing significantly different numbers than Rasmussen. What a scammer that guy is.
    [ Parent ]
    Continue to be impressed by Djou
    I know there's a large number of people around here that expect him to lose, but he's been leading pretty consistently in the polling. I know there may be issues with polling Hawaii, but I'm just not sure that this is wrong. He seems to be a popular guy that fits his district perfectly, with the only thing "wrong" with him being the R next to his name in a deep blue state. I think he hangs on.  
    Agreed.....
    From the day he was elected, I figured Djou would become a Congressman for life.
    [ Parent ]
    I saw him walk on water

    [ Parent ]
    LOL!


    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
    [ Parent ]
    That's how he
    gets around the islands.
    [ Parent ]
    I take back what I said about being a gloom and doomer
    You're a classic concern troll.
    [ Parent ]
    Put Your Back Down.....
    I said the same thing this summer when Djou won.  Once a candidate is an incumbent, particularly in a wave year, he or she has advantages that are very hard to overcome, especially in Hawaii.
    [ Parent ]
    That's what they said about Gene Taylor
    And look at him.  
    [ Parent ]
    I Never Said That About Gene Taylor.....
    I knew he was living on borrowed time.  I think I'm secure in saying that Honolulu, Hawaii, is more open-minded to voting for somebody outside their ideological comfort zone than is Hattiesburg, Mississippi.
    [ Parent ]
    The only thing I'd say about this is...
    Another one of my pet peeves:

    4.  Don't worry if we lose seat "X", because we'll DEFINITELY win it back in 2/6 years (or sooner wrt specials).

    There are situations where this statement is true, and HI-01 may be one of them.  But it's become an overused cliche.  I can come up with a pretty sizable list of candidates/winners (on both sides) who this was said about and they are still around.  Winning matters and winning now is most important.

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed.
    Rod Grams was WAY too conservative for Minnesota.  It was easy to dismiss him as someone who just washed ashore and would most assuredly be washed out during his next re-election.  He was.  But not by a very large margin and with Mark Dayton failing to win 50.  Rick Santorum actually got re-elected in Pennsylvania in 2000 despite similar predictions.

    It's never good to concede any seat because the power of incumbency can be very strong.  Something Republicans may find out this year when some of our more vulnerable incumbents stick around.  Even in wave elections usually it's the open seats that kill you.

    Pat Saiki held a seat in Hawaii as a Republican for awhile.  Dijou could as well.  However I'd wait for this year and particularly next year with Obama at the top of the ticket before we give it to him for "life."

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

    [ Parent ]
    Not sure why he fits the district perfectly.
    (1) He won a general election with 39% of the vote; (2) HI-1 did give Obama 74% of the vote in 2008.

    He might win this year, but Dems are underperforming statewide - not just in this one race. The same polls show Abercrombie's lead way smaller than it should be.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    Obama took 74% here. He was born here. Bush took 46% back in '04 if you want another point of reference. '10 is a GOP wave year so that's where your underperforming Dems are coming from. Any other year, your probably right  Abercrombie should be up more.  
    [ Parent ]
    I'm not saying Djou can't win.
    But there's just no evidence he "fits the district well."
    [ Parent ]
    His personality and history
    I may be a bit biased because I've met the man, but he's quiet, well-spoken and seems genuine. He's a moderate, not a tea partier or a firebrand, which is the (only) kind of Republicans than can get elected in Hawaii. He's been consistently winning as a Republican, first in the State Senate, and then on the Honolulu Council, where there are virtually no other GOPers around. That's what I meant by fits the district.  
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah you are biased
    What exactly did he vote for that makes him moderate?
    [ Parent ]
    He's only been there 5 months
    I'm not sure he's been in Congress long enough to have taken any really consequential votes. According to his site he's taken 5 roll call votes. In 4 of them he voted with the majority of Democrats and the first picture on his House site is of him in the Oval Office with Obama. I'd say that's pretty moderate, especially given the tenor of today's GOP.  
    [ Parent ]
    Spin
    His two most consequential votes were against financial reform and against extending unemployment benefits. And Mitch McConnell and John Boehner have been in the Oval Office too.

    http://www.votesmart.org/votin...

    [ Parent ]
    All
    Hannabusa needs to win the general is to get everyone who voted for her in her primary to show up. More than 50% of the GE electorate voted for her in the primary, which she faced minimal opposition. Granted there was a competitive primary for Gov but all she has to do is get them to turn out. I feel fairly confident about this race actually as Djou would have to literally win all R's, I's and a lot of D's who already voted Hannabusa once this year.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I think relying on numbers like that won't work here
    I can see a lot of Case voters going for Djou over Hanabusa. Felt to me like there was no love lost between the two campaigns and since Case was the white, more conservative option over Hanabusa, Ds that voted for him might be more inclined towards Djou.

    If Djou holds all those who voted for him, picks up some Case voters and if Dem turnout is depressed and/or GOP turnout is high, as most people are anticiapting, you can see how he wins.  

    [ Parent ]
    No
    It has nothing to do with the special. I'm not talking about Case V Hannabusa V Djou. This was the primary for the general election. Case was no where on the ballot. Just Hannabusa and a couple of nobodies. Hannabusa got much more than half of what the GE electorate is expected to be. That is just in a D primary. As long as huge numbers of people that voted for her in the primary added onto every single independent that did not vote in the D primary do not vote Djou she will win.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    ...what?
    voters who wanted a "white" option are going to vote for an Asian congressman? ok...

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Djou has NOT consistently led in polling. On the contrary, polling has been split......
    Both independent polls and internals have had Hanabusa up, and both independent polls and internals have had Djou up.  The polling has been very much split.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Djou has been up
    +3 in the Star Advertiser
    +4 in the Hill (Conducted by a D firm)
    +2 in this week's
    -1 in PPP in the first week of October.

    I'd say he's been leading recently in the polls.

    [ Parent ]
    Jim Costa Behind By 10 in New Survey USA Poll?
    Have things really gotten this bad?  I figured Costa might lose, but thought it would at least be close.
    No, but SurveyUSA's polling...
    IS this bad. One of yesterday's threads has a thorough discussion about why SurveyUSA's house polling (and most house polling, for that matter) isn't credible.

    20, GOP, NH-02
    [ Parent ]
    And the CA-20 one is crappier than most

    [ Parent ]
    Though
    it is worth keeping an eye on CA-20 since Whitman/Fiorina will probably win the district.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    Is SUSA the new Zogby?
    Zogby was an excellent pollster before they cratered a few cycles ago......

    In any case, with these results, we'd better hope so.

    [ Parent ]
    Their house polls were awful 2 years ago
    As was discussed in an earlier thread.  They tend to be better in their state polls.
    [ Parent ]
    The poll is 40% Republican, while the district has only 31% registered Republicans
    And they upped the number of conservatives from the last poll.  

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    SUSA only polls in English
    and this district is almost 2/3rds Hispanic. Costa may well be down, but any poll in a majority Hispanic district in which you can't press 2 for Spanish is absolutely worthless.  

    22, Democrat, AZ-01
    Peace. Love. Gabby.
    [ Parent ]
    PPP: Paul by 13
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    I've had this race over for quite a while.  Now we have confirmation.

    Goddammit.


    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    PPP This Far Off Rasmussen's Numbers?
    I figured the Conway ad would backfire but other recent polling has still showed it single digits.  Could PPP have a bad sample here?
    [ Parent ]
    Well there goes any pickup opportunities. I'm feeling bad enough today that...
    ...I am writing off McAdams in AK-Sen, too.  Eleventh-hour surge still possible, sure, but meh......highly unlikely.

    So now just try to keep Senate losses at no higher than 8.

    Ugh.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    This cycle has been a lesson in lowering our expectations
    Imagine a year ago if we'd been told we'd be happy (we'll relieved) if Dems lost 'just' 7 Senate seats. Unthinkable.
    [ Parent ]
    Well it goes both ways. After 2004...
    ...if you'd told me we'd take back the Senate in 2006 with only 14 GOP-held seats up for reelection, and only one of them an open seat, and we'd LOSE THAT ONE, I would've said you're on crack.  But we beat 6 incumbents with only 14 seats even on the table; only 7 of 13 GOP incumbents made it out alive.

    The American electorate's mood changes fast, and I swear I think that is something that has only accelerated.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    It is so hard to poll that race since we don't know
    how Lisa Murkowski's support drops off. However, you love to reference Cook and Rothenberg when you state your predictions, so you don't think that Miller is truly in free fall?

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    I DO think Miller is in freefall, but Miller and Murkowski are McSame......
    I was fantasizing the other night that were I McAdams' media consultant, I would do direct mail pieces to targeted voters, 7 pieces in 7 days starting 10 days out, saying "the choice is McAdams or McSame."  And "McSame" is Miller and Murkowski.

    A bunch of SSPers seem to act like Murkowski is some kind of improvement.  For Republicans, yes, she is, but not for us.  She and Miller are both Republicans and will vote virtually identically.  

    I guess today I just see Lisa's ability to get write-in votes as having a lot more staying power than I thought a few weeks ago.  So that makes McAdams' job harder.  McAdams needs Miller's attacks on Lisa to work, not just for attacks on Miller to work or for Miller to shoot himself in the foot.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly, Murkowski will be there for the GOP on the big stuff.
    She'll be a relible vote on anything where she'd be the deciding factor. Personally watching video of McAdams and his ads I've been pretty dissapointed.  
    [ Parent ]
    Do you really think his lead is 13 points?
    Has any pollster show a lead anywhere near that large in the last month?

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Outlier, but the numbers still suck


    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    Paul
    will win but it will be by a five point margin. This is an outlier until I see other data backing it up as all other recent data shows a different tale.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    oh i think its a landslide
    I've never loved Conway.  This one always favored Paul.  Given the state, political climate and candidate missteps late in the game I'd be shocked if this weren't double digits.
    [ Parent ]
    I
    doubt it. Granted I'm biased but I do live here. Beltway pundits seem to think the Aqua Buddha add hurt Conway greatly. In all reality it has not received much negative coverage, all it did was got the news to talk about the incident again. Really no big deal, Conway will not lose points because of it. Also Conway did very well in the debates while Paul did horrible and came off looking horrible. The climate is too hard to overcome but all other data both public and private shows this no more than a five point race. PPP could be onto something but I am not convinced of it.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Also
    just the fact we are talking about this race in a very red state like Kentucky shows both the weakness of Paul and the strength of Conway. Mongiardo would be trailing by a much larger margin than this. Or had Grayson and Dr. Dan won the primary it would be a twenty point blowout while with Conway and Grayson it would be ten to fifteen.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Jensen says it best
    "Aqua Buddha having same effect as Dole's 'Godless Americans'- narrow loss becomes wide one"

    He was on the way to losing anyway so it was worth the risk. Again, he always picks a lousy time to run. 2002 and 2010. He would have beat McConnell in 2008.

    [ Parent ]
    Not
    2008 simply because he just got elected AG in Nov of 2007 and he would have literally had to announce a run before getting sworn in. It would not have worked. People may tell the polls when asked directly "oh yeah that was over the line" but in all reality, withholding my personal views (I did not like the ad) I do not think it is going to hurt him much. Plain and simply he was never going to win. This ad was a last ditch effort that is not going to work. The bright side is he is still young and will still be AG once this race is over. He has a lot of options left to him. He could go for Senate in 2014 or 2016 or Governor in 2015. Or just wait until Yarmuth retires and become Congressman in a walk.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I think Yarmuth will be around for a while
    But Conway would be a pretty good replacement for him. I'd rather see a different statewide candidate in the future, though.

    I think, assuming Conway loses (which is pretty likely) he's going to get tarred with being "the guy who couldn't beat Rand Paul", fair or not, and that's going to make any new campaigns for him difficult, at least until that wears off.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    That
    is true but the year is just so bad I think he can (rightly) blame it on that. "In a year where we lost 50 House seats, seven in the Senate I was able to get 45% of the vote in a conservative state." He will definitely win re-election as AG and once he does I think that most of the tarr of losing to Paul will go away. Yarmuth will be around at least another decade, you are right about that. If Heiner wins Conway could run for Mayor or run to succeed Fischer if he doesn't run for a third or even second (he could run for Senate in 2014)one. Fischer doesn't seem like he wants to be "Mayor for life". We have a decent bench but I still think Conway is the best behind Chandler and Chandler would be giving away a House seat. There's the Auditor but she is in her mid sixties, 2014 is her last shot. I think Conway still has a future in politics.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    The thought occurs to me
    I wonder how Jerry Abramson would've done. I don't think he wants to be Senator at all (heck, I was amazed he's running for Lt. Gov.) but isn't he more or less the most popular Dem in the state, other than maybe Luallen?  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    Abramson?
    Nah I think he would have lost worse. He is a die hard liberal, former member of mayors against illegal guns (Beshear made him quit) and is not all that popular as he once was. He's still above 50 last I checked but he was in the 80's. I think he will regain popularity but he was blamed for a lot of the local budget cuts and is only running for LG because the job of Mayor sucks for him right now. I did not think LG was a great job for him and was not impressed when I heard. But he wants to stay in politics and that is the best he can get. I do not know what he really adds to the ticket besides fundraising abilities. I think Beshear honestly likes him and did not put in politics when making the choice. Him and Beshear have been friends for years and I think Abramson genuinely wants to help him and serve with him. I suppose he could run for Governor in 2015 but I seriously doubt it do to his age. But I never thought he would run for anything but Mayor so you never know.      

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    You're right, Abramson would've been absolutely pounded on guns, I forgot about that.

    I thought he was a peculiar choice for LG but I think it was a good one. Beshear will win or lose on his own merits, and Abramson doesn't do anything to hurt their ticket; if they lose, Abramson probably wasn't really planning on doing much more in politics, so he doesn't have to worry about a blemish on his record.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    Abramson?
    Nah I think he would have lost worse. He is a die hard liberal, former member of mayors against illegal guns (Beshear made him quit) and is not all that popular as he once was. He's still above 50 last I checked but he was in the 80's. I think he will regain popularity but he was blamed for a lot of the local budget cuts and is only running for LG because the job of Mayor sucks for him right now. I did not think LG was a great job for him and was not impressed when I heard. But he wants to stay in politics and that is the best he can get. I do not know what he really adds to the ticket besides fundraising abilities. I think Beshear honestly likes him and did not put in politics when making the choice. Him and Beshear have been friends for years and I think Abramson genuinely wants to help him and serve with him. I suppose he could run for Governor in 2015 but I seriously doubt it do to his age. But I never thought he would run for anything but Mayor so you never know.      

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I don't know if I agree with Jensen
    on that. When I first saw the "Aqua Buddha" ad, I thought the same as Jensen. (It's a bad Hail Mary play similar to Liddy Dole.) But as the story developed, Conway's performance in the polls (other than the PPP poll) kind of disproved the Dole comparison.  
    [ Parent ]
    I'd like to think that head stomping in Kentucky
    Would associate that with paul and give them a negative view of him.  PLUS, I honestly think that not polling Cell phone users is going to impact polling.  I don't know how much, but at the end of the day, I still think KY may be a close race.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
    [ Parent ]
    Can't THAT
    be the game changer? It's Wednesday afternoon. Can't they put an ad together by tonight and then blanket the airwaves? It's one thing if Paul had apologized profusely (not that he should have to, but still) and condemned such behavior, but he didn't. It's fair game to attack him with it. What's the worst that could happen for Conway at this point?

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    the worst
    The worst that could happen would be for him to (a) wreck his own career and (b) cause Chandler to lose his House seat.

    41, Ind, CA-05
    [ Parent ]
    I guess, but
    Jesus Christ, one of his supporters stomped on a woman's head. It's certainly not his fault. He can't control every thing his own family does, let alone the tens of thousands of people who are actively supporting him. Still, the guy is too much of a prick to follow the standard procedure and apologize even if it is not his fault? Should he win, his opponent in 2016 should hope I remember this when he inevitably sends me a fund raising e-mail.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    depends
    It would depend on how he did the ad. If he runs a clip of Paul's lame response and then cuts away to himself staring into the camera and calling Paul out, it could work. If he suggests that Paul approved of the thugs' attack, it would probably backfire.  

    41, Ind, CA-05
    [ Parent ]
    Paul
    sounded pretty sincere about the whole thing, though the Paul sign by her head does look nasty. I get emails from Conway daily attacking everything Paul. The one today mentioned nothing of the attack. I do not think he will touch it. It is both unfair and would not work. At least the Aqua Buddha ad had some substance to it. This is over the top and would not work.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    MI-03 Miles Ad
    It's off most people's radar, and I still wouldn't bet on a pickup... but I'm feeling pretty excited about MI-03 right now.

    Back story: It's Gerald Ford's district, and has a history of electing moderate Republicans, up through retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers. Two moderate-ish conservatives split the vote in the primary, letting a real nutjob-- Justin Amash-- grab the nomination. Ehlers hasn't endorsed Amash, and during the primary practically refused to acknowledge that Amash existed.

    Meanwhile, the Democrats nominated a legitimate candidate named Pat Miles, who's picked up some newspaper endorsements and has stayed pretty close to Amash in fundraising. Last fundraising report, Miles even had more cash-on-hand. An EPIC-MRA poll from last week gave Amash a 9-point lead.

    Now, Miles is out with what I think is a pretty good ad:

    Prediction? Amash pulls it out in the end, but underperforms in a Walberg 2006 sort of way. Miles could definitely have a future here, and it's definitely looking like a winnable district.

    Ehlers DID endorse Amash
    Almost a month ago, according to a 2-second google search.

    http://amashforcongress.com/ne...

    Amash will win here by a wide margin. He's a smart, articulate conservative (and yes, he is very conservative, but tempers that with great outreach and transparency; he posts the rationale for all State House votes online and won't vote for something he hasn't read) that doesn't make mistakes. Miles was reduced to crashing Amash events Bernero-style in order to get publicity.  

    [ Parent ]
    GOP
    Republican teatard says what?
    [ Parent ]
    Just a bad Dem day...
    I was going to take a bus trip up to Philly this week to canvass for Dems...now, I feel so hopeless.  

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    Pa isnt lost
    Don't let Kentucky, Alaska and Wyoming color your decisions about Pennsylvania.  It's still in play and an uphill battle where help is needed.
    [ Parent ]
    Do it. Bond with other Dems, you'll feel better. It still matters, and most importantly...
    ...you'll feel good about yourself.

    One thing I try to remind myself from time to time is that when things are tough, these are the moments when keeping the faith matters most, and we're glad we did looking back when things are better again.

    Next Tuesday is going to suck.  And so will the weeks, and maybe even months, that follow.

    But the voters will get their anger out of their system, and they'll be done taking it out on Team Blue.  Well, the SWING voters will be done.  The teabaggers are hopeless racists and xenophobes who will never stop, but they're not the problem.  The reasonable people who are just frustrated are our REAL problem, and they'll be easier to persuade in 2012 than now.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    These incumbents will be harder to dislodge in 2012
    Now that they are elected.  We learned that in 1996.  
    [ Parent ]
    the difference between 40 and 50
    is not that important, so don't stress about any batch of polls - or house seats here or there.  there are close elections which will matter a lot: PA, CO, CA, MN, OH, FL, WA - and how some house races in the South or conservative districts in MI or ID turn out don't affect those races at all.

    if you can help in a tight race, do it!  We need you and we'll feel better when we win a few of those close races even if we lose 50 seats...  

    [ Parent ]
    There's home in some places!
    California for instance - Barbara Boxer is holding on, and PPP is going to release a poll with her up big in a few hours.

    Kirk still up in latest IL poll - but only up 2% rather than 4% in Rasmussen's prior installment.

    Yes, things are looking bleak in many places this morning (NY-20, CA-20, KY-Sen), but in some cases it's just one poll (NY-20) and in the other cases, well, Dems don't need to win KY to save face on Election Night.

    [ Parent ]
    Food for thought...
    Don't give up even if it seems like all is lost. Trust me when you wake up on November 3rd and even if things go poorly you will feel like you did something positive. It is almost like therapy in a way. You honestly also never really know. While campaigning in Arkansas thinking that Lincoln has a shot is likely a bad idea going to Philly to help increase the vote turnout for Sestak is exactly what he needs now. Maybe the 100 people you talk to would have already voted but maybe you can convince just 10 of these to vote and they otherwise wouldn't have voted? I have been doing a lot of canvassing lately in VA-05 and what I always tell people that say voting doesn't matter is that if 500 people in Florida thought otherwise Bush would have never won and who knows how different things may be today? It is enough to get people to realize that small things do in fact matter.

    I assume you are going on the OFA bus trip?  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for the pep talk everyone.
    "I assume you are going on the OFA bus trip?"

    Yes I am going on the OFA bus trip this Saturday leaving from DC.  I have even hounded my husband into going and he is not political. I wish that I could do more trips but I have so much going on right now.  I am also going to make some calls when I can.  

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    Bus trip...
    I have been phone banking at the DNC lately and they were talking about the bus trips. I really thought about going to PA/OH but I decided it would be best for me to continue to help VA-05 and my state's party. Given my age it is always good talking with people my age in and helping them understand why voting matters. One guy last week told me that he went from "not giving a s*%! about voting to being fired up to vote". In reality that won't swing the election and I don't know how many votes I may help "turnout" but it is a great feeling that I can't underestimate.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Don't
    Don't do that - you never know.  Imagine if that race winds up being very close.  If you show and your guy wins, you can know that you helped push them over the top.  But if you don't go and they lose my a tad, you'll regret it.  The key is to never stop trying to get your guys across the finish line.  I've been part of campaigns where I knew my guy had no chance, but I always felt better for trying.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Sebby,
    you might be heartened by this new Reuters poll for PA-Sen: All tied up at 46!
    http://www.reuters.com/article...

    There's probably no more effective use of your time than working the ground in Philly, for both Sestak and the House Dems in the area.

    If you promise to go, I'll promise to do phone calling (which I hate) for Chris Murphy and/or Dan Malloy this weekend. Is it a deal? :)

    [ Parent ]
    Kevin,
    You have got yourself a bargin! ;-)

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    Cool!
    I'll be spending the next few nights making calls for Hill. I'll probably even suck up my hatred for it and canvass. I HATE both but I feel good about myself after.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Awesome!
    It's a deal. :)
    [ Parent ]
    DKos regulars...
    Grayson, Giannoulias, Conway, McAdams are all going to lose.  Huh.  

    I think politicans fall in love with it's fundraising potential and get sucked in by that echo chamber effect to think that the folks there represent anything other than a small sliver of the overall electorate.  

    Same with all the politicians that flock to Netroot Nation every year.

    This is going to be a bloodbath.  This reeks of Coakley to me where the Dem was caught off-guard, and despite a late furious GOTV campaign, it didn't matter.  

    Oh please
    What in the world are you talking about?

    You list four Dems who you claim are losing because they were sucked in the netroots echo chamber.

    (1) McAdams: Seriously? The guy was unknown two months ago, he's running semi-competitive Dem campaign in Alaska. Kudos to him.

    (2) Giannoulias: First, he's not "going to lose." He might very well do so (I'd say Kirk has a tiny edge) - but no need to concern troll. And the reason he is going to lose has everything to do with the shady dealings of his family bank, relatively little to do with anything he might have said.

    (3) Conway: He's no conservative Democrat, but, he's also no progressive Netroots hero. What are you talking about he only represents a small number of people? Because he refused to join other AGs in suing HCR? Health-care is frankly the only issue I can think of in which Conway took a big policy risk. He even came out in favor of extending tax cuts for the wealthy.

    If you're going to come here to argue that not wanting to sue HCR constitutes being stuck in the Daily Kos echo chamber...

    [ Parent ]
    The Kos echo chamber...
    Is the constant drone of how the Dems were not progressive enough and that's why they're getting beat.  Really?  Raul Grijalva wasn't progressive enough and that's why he's in real trouble? Russ Feingold wasn't progressive enough? Barney Frank needs to loan his campaign money for the final push?  The much more progressive House is going to lose 50+ seats?

    Conway's Aqua Buddha ad is panned across the board, except at Kos where it's defended and folks are urged to donate on it to fight back.  Grayson's Taliban Dan ad was gushed about at DKos.  Giannoulias' call for a "progressive caucus" in the Senate when he needs to be fighting for moderates - he gave up the political middle - and for what?

     

    [ Parent ]
    Alexi needs to increase base turnout
    The rest I agree with.
    [ Parent ]
    Re
    And Gene Taylor is losing because he's just voted for Dems too many times, right?

    No. The cycle is terrible, Dems are losing across the board.

    Frank isn't threatened (if he is) because he's "too progressive." He's threatened because Brown revealed last January that the GOP could win in Massachusetts - and there are 4/5 districts that are now on the "likely Dem" list rather than the safe Dem list. Unless the reason some are worried about Tsongas is also that she's a raving progressive addicted to DKos.

    Some progressives are excellent candidates - Tom Periello voted for most Dem bills in a VERY tough district and look, the NRCC is still forced to spend money to unseat him.

    Or look at NH-2, arguably one of the only great trendlines for Dems with one of the most progressive candidates on the ballot this year.

    Some progressives are terrible candidates - sometimes because they don't explain their politics well, sometimes for totally unrelated reasons (Giannoulias).

    Few people in SSP give you cliches about how "Dems are only losing because they weren't progressive enough!!!" Everyone recognizes at least that the HCR marketing was done terribly; that the economy was bound to hurt the party; etc.

    So just spare us your "Dems are losing because they are too far to the left!" cliches - there are 110 House seats on the chart, many progressives, many centrists, many conservatives.

    [ Parent ]
    Giannoulias has been conistently behind.
    By a small margin yes, but still down. As the race winds down that small but steady lead of Kirk's becomes more meaningful. This is where recruitment killed the Dems.  
    [ Parent ]
    Alright, so some netroots candidates are going to lose
    Therefore the entire concept is inherently flawed and we shouldn't use things like ActBlue anymore?

    That's funny, considering plenty of more traditional candidates are also going to lose. I guess that means we just shouldn't bother with campaigning or fundraising, period.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    Agree on a bloodbath but....
    I would agree with you about those but Alexi is just impossible to really tell what is going to happen. It does appear that Kirk has a small lead in the polls but has continually failed to crack 45. Alexi isn't lighting the world on fire either though. This is a pretty genuine toss-up but is in such a reasonable blue state that I would take our chances there. The rest I agree with you I don't know why Kos continues to tout these guys. Grayson did himself in with the Taliban ad. Conway is in too conservative of a state. McAdams is just too much of an unknown in a conservative state.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Most undecideds in Illinois are Democrats
    It's important to remember. Kirk's numbers are pretty close to what the floor is for a Republican running competitively statewide in Illinois. Giannoulias just has to get some of those undecideds to the polls.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    floor or ceiling?
    Are you sayong that kirl.has room to grow orctgat he's done nothing to get above the floor?
    [ Parent ]
    Ceiling would have been the better word


    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    Oh good
    That's been my feeling too.I
    [ Parent ]
    floor or ceiling?
    Are you sayong that kirl.has room to grow orctgat he's done nothing to get above the floor?
    [ Parent ]
    new Dubie AD
    looks like his closer.  I'm not going to comment since I worked for the campaign, but what do you guys think?



    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    cant watch it here at work
    But I love the title. "I'm your man" is a great title for a closing ad.  Is vt-gov 2 yr terms or 4?
    [ Parent ]
    two years
    part of me wishes it were four, so the governor, whomever s/he is can do more without worrying about re-election, but the elections nerd in me loves having a gubernatorial race every 2 years.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    [ Parent ]
    Depressing thread
    Not the polls but the navel gazing. Buck up people!
    OMG TEH SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!1!
    Seriously, in my humble opinion, everyone needs to take a breather.  This morning we've seen, what, four really bad polls? (CA-20, NY-20, KY-Sen and PA-Sen... unless I'm missing any...) The confluence of a handful of scattershot polls does not a national trend make.

    Not that I'm feeling especially confident.  Au contraire, like most everyone else here, I've emotionally resigned myself to a royal walloping next week. But what I've always admired about so many members of the SSP community, and the thoughtful commentary in which they engage, is the sense of perspective that they work so hard to achieve. I'm trying my very hardest to find it right now. Come what may next Tuesday, we can all say with some degree of confidence that there will probably be surprises aplenty -- some good, many bad. Moreover, it seems pretty clear that there are going to be innumerable freshmen GOPers who are so far off the ideological reservation within their own districts that Democrats are pretty well assured to have another happy hunting season come 2010 (or 2012, if Obama thoroughly tanks). Either way, as my father likes to say, the pendulum always swings back.

    In the meantime, all we can do is volunteer, stay calm and focused, and for the love of all things sacred, VOTE... early, if possible.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large

    *2012 and 2014, not 2010 and 2012... n/t


    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    Being reasonable
    Is no fun.  Now back to the sky is falling...go on.  Lol.
    [ Parent ]
    Something I've been thinking about
    It's not just that after this election we'll have a lot of targets for the next couple of cycles, but also that this is the ultimate trial by fire for a lot of our incumbents. If, say, a Baron Hill or a John Boccieri (or, hope against hope, a Tom Perriello) can survive a year this awful, they can probably survive just about anything short of being redrawn into a bad district. That gives me a feeling that the swing district congresspersons we'll be left with are the absolute best: the hardest working, the best fundraisers, the toughest campaigners, the most resilient of our non-D5+ incumbents.

    Then again, I'm sure a lot of Republicans might've been thinking the same thing about Chris Shays after 2006, so there is that.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    Totally agreed.
    Stop whining about policies on one hand or worrying about the end of the world on the other.

    Sometimes the good guys don't win.

    But when they don't win, they get back up and fight another day.

    Simple.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    harv,
    one connecticutter to another (kinda, sorta in my case), do you think malloy has this done, or is an upset possible?  while malloy is certainly in the lead and in a better position than foley, I think an upset is not outside the realm of impossibility.  foley's been shooting up, but that's probably just consolidating his base and shoring up a lead with indies.  my final guess is malloy 53 foley 47, but i could certainly see foley 51 malloy 49.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    [ Parent ]
    meant to reply to your post further down, about CT
    whoops.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    [ Parent ]
    Sokay.
    I havne't been following the Gov race well enough to say much.

    I wouldn't say it's impossible, but unlikely, especially since Blumenthal is expanding his margin, and since the ground game is on in a traditionally blue state.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Quinnipiac internals
    Malloy up 80-9 among Democrats while Foley takes Republicans 90-7. Independent voters back Malloy 50-41. Given the latter and the fact Foley is tapped out with his base I think a late surge is unlikely.

     

    [ Parent ]
    Anything's possible,
    especially in this topsy-turvy year, but Malloy still has a 5-point lead, and the bulk of the undecideds are Democrats. So I think he's in good shape.
    [ Parent ]
    With all due respect to SSPers...
    In my short time here, I've noticed you guys are a little jumpy.

    Do you guys startle easily or what?

    [ Parent ]
    If it's been a "short time," you shouldn't be surprised. If you ran across...
    ...a group of people staring at a bad traffic accident moments after it happened, you wouldn't ask them why they're staring with jaws dropping, right?

    That's what you walked in on!

    If we were on track to lose, say, 20 seats, the environment would be a lot more calm here!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Personally, I wonder...
    ... if we're in an era of more frequent changes in the control of Congress. I think a lot of people still think in terms of the near permanent Democratic majorities from 1931-1995 (despite the brief interruptions from '47-49 and '51-53). By 2004, a lot of analysts expected the Republicans to control Congress for another decade or two.

    But the post-1930 Democratic majorities were a big anomaly, historically. Prior to then, control of Congress generally switched about as frequently as the presidency (moreso, in fact), and it was rare that a party won the presidential election without also winning control of Congress.

    We once again live in a highly partisan environment with strongly ideological parties. Ticket-splitting is far less common and will likely remain so. It was common in the past mainly because the parties weren't strongly ideological and there was huge overlap between the two parties, even in terms of policy. That's not likely to happen again.

    So it seems quite likely that super-long runs of Congressional control may well be a thing of the past. Even the Republicans post-1994 twelve-year stretch may well have been extended four years by 9-11. It's not at all difficult to imagine Democrats regaining Congress in '02 had that not occurred, as Bush's approvals would probably have been in the '40s, there would still have been residual Democratic anger over the 2000 election, and the mood would have been dominated by the sluggish economy and accounting scandals like Enron.  

    [ Parent ]
    Have you
    ever read the book The Emerging Democratic Majority? I was intrigued by and hopeful about its thesis but was soundly mocked in some quarters before 2008, which I believe illustrated some of the legitimacy of its claims.

    Basically, I think all of the long term trends favor the Democrats, but their success could be interrupted by (a) some big issue like the economic trouble we are having now or (b) the Republicans cutting into our success at attracting minority votes. The latter would certainly be an issue if the party became more moderate, but I am not sure how likely that is.

    I don't know if will have the margins we have now for a long time, but I suspect that we will stay in a position of power if we take control, or should I say when, unless the economy doesn't stabilize. If employment were to see noticeable improvement in the next few years, I could see the Republicans maintaining a narrow majority. That is, if they win big this year with 60-plus seats. If they were to hold the majority by, say, five seats, it's much easier for the Democrats to win back a bunch of seats with a strong presidential run and then keep it.

    Put it this way: we might be in for a few more wave elections, but as soon as things become more normal in the economy, that could easily stop. You have to remember that they are essentially fighting over the same 50-75 seats every single election, sort of like how they are fighting over Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania every single presidential election.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I have, and I think there's a lot of truth to it...
    ... BUT, I also think realignment theory is mostly bunk. So basically, I think the correct takeaway is that demographic trends give Democrats some important advantages and will keep them competitive, but I don't think there's any truth to the idea of a "permanent majority."

    I mean, the presidency has switched parties fairly regularly. For all the talk about postwar GOP dominance, if you flip ONE election - 1980 - you get a perfect 8-year pendulum pattern between 1952 and 2008.

    Congress is a different story and there was a near-permanent Democratic majority, but again, the was the result of non-ideological congressional parties and a whole lot of ticket-splitting. That's not likely to happen again.

    One other thing people should remember if we do in fact lose the House next Tuesday: in the postwar era, three presidents have seen their parties lose control of Congress at their first midterm: Truman, Eisenhower, and Clinton. In ALL THREE cases, they won comfortable reelections two years later.

    Now, there are a whole bunch of reasons why that may not happen this time, from the sluggish economy to an even more gridlocked and ideological Congress, etc. But it means that Obama could very well win reelection in 2012 regardless of what happens this year.  

    [ Parent ]
    Obama winning reelection means little
    If Republicans are controlling Congress.  From what I can see, this is a Congressional elections blog, not a Presidential election blog.
    [ Parent ]
    That is frickin' rich!!!!

    [ Parent ]
    As I understand the rules of this site
    positive cheerleading for Republican candidates is grounds for dismissal.

    I cite this message of user Dave6750 from yesterday http://www.swingstateproject.c...

    as evidence of his cheerleading of Republican candidates

    I voted for McCain for a few reasons
    The first is that I saw Obama as naive and someone childlike when it came to dealing with Republicans and the ways of Washington.  

    Of course, this is just my interpretation, and I am not a moderator. I have no power here, other than my words.

    [ Parent ]
    Eisenhower and Clinton were lame ducks after the other party took Congress
    Yes, they got reelected, but what did they get done?  Eisenhower was basically forced to allow Democrats to run domestic policy and the same happened with Clinton, when he was forced to allow Republicans to pretty much run domestic policy after 1994 with Welfare Reform and Telecommunications and Financial deregulation.  
    [ Parent ]
    After Citizens United...
    ...I'm not sure how the dems ever will be able to take congress again.  Considering how easily minds have been bought by the corporate money flowing into the elections, how Dems will ever compete, I don't know...

    And don't forget redistricting screwing us...

    We're locked in for a decade at least, I'm afraid.  We need to have a very good presidential year in 2020, get some coattails in the state legislatures, and redistrict ourselves better.

    [ Parent ]
    Redistricting could actually be
    the saving grace. Extra instability + Presidential turnout.  
    [ Parent ]
    I don't know that CU matters as much
    Don't get me wrong: it's a terrible decision, but the evidence is mixed regarding the effect of money on politics. Look at Whitman in CA. Our losses this year are mostly due to the economic climate. Corporate election spending doesn't help matters, but I really don't think it's decisive in the aggregate.  
    [ Parent ]
    Oh rubbish
    It was a bad year before outside groups started spending obsence amounts of money. And outspending Democrats did little to help the GOP in 2006 and 2008. We all have to accept this stuff is cyclical and more often than not the environment can turn on a dime.
    [ Parent ]
    True to a certain extent...
    ...but, the outside spending probably will cost us several senate seats and at least 10 house seats in the end.

    More importantly, it's going to be incredibly hard for Dems to raise money in the minority.  The GOP always had business folk contributing heavily.  The Dems being in power managed to take a lot of that back, but they won't be in that position now.

    Even Cook says that a return wave in 2012 or 2014 is likely, but our 2006 wave was relatively weak.  We had a 23 point lead in the generic ballot and gained only 30 seats.  It's going to be hard to over perform again.

    [ Parent ]
    They never had that lead in reality
    No matter what the polling may have said.
    [ Parent ]
    2006 was limited by redistricting
    And that's why your redistricting point is a better one. Remember, we're still playing on what is essentially a Republican-friendly map, and that was true in '06 too. Had it not been for Republican gerrymanders in much of the Midwest, we'd probably have had a 1994-like pickup in '06.

    For that matter, redistricting was also a major factor in 1994.  

    [ Parent ]
    And it's going to be a major factor in 2012-2020, too...
    We're losing at the state level as well, and those districts are going to be even HARDER for us to win for a "counterwave".
    [ Parent ]
    Oh I agree
    But I do think there are a few caveats. Remember that Democrats typically face a worse climate in midterm elections because their base - including lots of minority and poorer voters - isn't the most politically-engaged and doesn't turn out in non-presidentiel years.

    In 2008, we held onto our '06 gains and picked up another 20 seats. In 2012, we may face some redistricting handicaps, but the higher turnout may help us out if Obama wins reelection. (Granted, a lot of IFs, but it's possible.)

    Also, redistricting may not be SO bad depending on who wins. If we Strickland can hold on Ohio and if Sink can win in Florida that will help us out a lot.  

    [ Parent ]
    Gerrymander Fails....
    2006 and especially 2008 served as evidence of the limits of gerrymandering.

    A lot of the map tricks the GOP pulled off backfired on them. Granted, it took a couple of cycles.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    That's true
    They spread their own too thinly - which meant that they had a small advantage in relatively even elections ('02, '04) but when there was even a moderate shift towards Dems, they wound up losing a lot of seats.

    It's important too to look at the topline numbers, not just the change in seats. After '06, Democrats had a larger majority than Republicans had at any point post-1994.  

    [ Parent ]
    But now they get another shot at it
    What worries me is that the GOP will again control gerrymandering in a lot of places like Pennsylvania where they can learn from their mistakes. In PA they tried to force Democrats into only 5-6 safe seats which backfired heavily. This time they might grant the Dems 1-2 more safe seats and create a much more durable gerrymander.

    Do the same in Ohio, Florida, etc. and suddenly the playing field becomes even more uphill for Dems.

    24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

    [ Parent ]
    Demographic and electoral shifts, too
    You can draw the lines however you want, but if voters turn on your party en masse it doesn't make a whole lot of difference where the lines were drawn.  That's where the strategy of packing Democrats into a few districts and drawing a bunch of R+5 or so districts can backfire; if the electorate shifts in the Democrats' direction, Congressmen aren't as safe as if you had drawn fewer districts but made them safer.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
    [ Parent ]
    Republican lock on Congress
    That's what I badly fear.  
    [ Parent ]
    No such thing

    [ Parent ]
    Okay, so a few polls don't look good
    For all we know, polls tomorrow or the next day could look much better, we've had bad days before and then the next ones turned out to be better. We just have to continue to hope for the best and not completely fall apart.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    Early Voting Turnout in NC
    Early Voting period in NC runs 10/14-10/30

    Turnout thru 10/25 has been:
    44.62% Dem (6.6% Dem margin over GOP)
    38.01% GOP
    17.27% Indy

    Voter Registration by Party
    44.65% Dem (13% Dem margin over GOP)
    31.59% GOP
    23.61% Indy

    Note that although the GOP is turning out at a higher rate than their registration numbers, it is becasue Indys are staying home, not Democrats.

    http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/

    ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/ENRS/absentee11xx02xx2010_Stats.pdf

    In the Democratic bastion of Durham County, turnout is up 73% from 2006.

    http://www.heraldsun.com/view/...

    I have noticed
    The black vote turnout has been creeping up over the last week.  May be good news, I had read somewhere that the DNC was spending 10x as much on turning out the black vote this year compared to 2006.  So far, it looks like black voters in NC are turning out at 77% the rate of white voters.  Not sure what the benchmark for good turnout would be, though.
    [ Parent ]
    Finally some good news today.
    Of course, it is possible the independents are breaking overwhelming for the GOP, but still it isn't completely depressing like most the rest of the news today.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm actually half expecting
    PPP have lead us up the garden path in CA.
    [ Parent ]
    Everyone should take a breather!
    And revel in some great news!

    http://blogs.courant.com/capit...

    Quinnipiac, n-702, 18-24 Oct., MoE 3.7%

    Blumenthal 54 McMahon 42
    Malloy 48 Foley 43

    "Malloy captures 80 percent of the Democratic vote while Foley gets 90 percent of Republicans."

    "Seven percent of those polled said they were undecided about the gubernatorial candidates while 11 percent said they could change their mind before election day."

    It's 3 and 6 respectively for the senate race.

    From the PDF:
    "Women back Blumenthal 61 - 35 percent.  Men split, with 49 percent for McMahon and 47 percent for Blumenthal."
    "By a 55 - 39 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal. McMahon gets a negative 43 - 51 percent favorability, down from a split 46 - 46 percent favorability October 14."
    Full PDF here: http://www.courant.com/news/po...

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    This is also heartening
    http://people-press.org/report...

    "Two years ahead of the next presidential election, the public is divided over whether Barack Obama should run for a second term as president. About half (47%) say they would like to see Obama run again in 2012, while 42% say they would not. This is better than the outlook for Ronald Reagan in August 1982; at that point, just 36% of the public said they wanted to see Reagan - who subsequently went on to win his second term by an 18-point margin -  run for reelection."

    [ Parent ]
    Who cares about Obama?
    What good is having the White House if the other party has a lock on Congress?
    [ Parent ]
    Not this again
    You are really trying my patience.
    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    this is getting old and fast.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Especially since I posted that
    To try and cheer people up.
    [ Parent ]
    Im sorry
    You would have better cheered me up if you said that Democrats would have a good chance to win back the House in 2012 or 2014.  
    [ Parent ]
    There is no cheering up people like you

    [ Parent ]
    Change the question a little
    Why is that in the last three Democratic presidencies, political disasters have struck with 4 years?  An inability to govern effectively.  Which is the result of the "big tent."  

    As for having the presidency, the Supreme Court and regulatory appointments do some good.

    [ Parent ]
    Democrats governed fine
    They passed healthcare and the stimulus and got through two Supreme Court appointments.  The problem is that Obama refused to step up and defend these policies as well as attack Republicans.  

    This isnt like 1993-1994, when there was a failure to govern.

    [ Parent ]
    WI-Sen
    Via Ras...

    Johnson  53(52)
    Feingold 46(45)

    No real movement...
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    It being a Ras Senate poll
    You take 2-3 points off the Republican. So it really looks like this:

    Johnson 50-51ish
    Feingold 46.

    (Johnson 49-50ish)
    (Feingold 45)

    You're right. No real movement, but still pretty tight.

    [ Parent ]
    I Was Expecting This To Be A Little Closer....
    How can otherwise sane people in Wisconsin not realize how awful Ron Johnson is?  Figured by now, it'd be a three-point race.  Looks like this one is over.
    [ Parent ]
    On the other hand
    What's with that NE-02 poll?  You'd think in a cycle like this Terry would be cruising.  Is Omaha just getting more liberal?

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
    I'm pretty sure
    It's because Lee Terry is an awful candidate and Congressman. He consistently rates at the bottom of Congressional power indexes. In a Dem year I'd think he would be in trouble. Obama did win Omaha as well though.
    [ Parent ]
    Didn't Terry nearly lose in '08?
    His opponent came within a few thousand votes of knocking him off, if I recall correctly.  
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    And '06, against the same opponent.  Terry got caught a little by surprise in '08 because Obama actually carried his district, I think.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
    [ Parent ]
    doug tuttle had a good theory a little while back
    That there aren't any really major elections in NE right now, nothing significant is on the ballot, so there's nothing to drive turnout or engage voters beyond the national mood. Add in that Tom White is a better, more polished candidate than Jim Esch, and that neither side bothered to target this district, and it's not impossible to come up with a scenario where White catches Terry napping.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    What did Larry Sabato say
    About people who take internal polling at face value?

    http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

    "Republican polling shows more Democratic incumbents sitting in the mid-40s in ballot tests than I have ever seen. If the patterns of past years hold, Republican gains could well exceed those of 1994."

    VA-09: Griffith 47, Boucher 46 (SurveyUSA)
    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

    I don't put any stock in SUSA House polls at all at this point but someone might want to see this.

    Bizarre
    I don't know what to think anymore. But independents are the most fickle people on the planet.
    [ Parent ]
    As usual
    The young folks love Republican heartthrob Morgan Griffith!

    I can tease out of the data that Boucher probably has a huge lead in the early vote, which is a tiny subsample...  

    [ Parent ]
    If there is anywhere in the country young people vote R....
    This is it. VA-09 is very Republican at the statewide and national level. Even at the local level it is trending R, with an incumbant Democrat delegate getting crushed there in 09. Only due to loyalty to Boucher is he kept afloat despite being a Democrat. I'd say seniors who are democrats in the FDR breed are his biggest supporters.  
    [ Parent ]
    That's a scary number given SUSA has had Boucher winning
    in every poll up to this one. Even the blowout they've been predicting in VA-05, they've had Boucher with a comfortable lead in VA-09. I won't be surprised if Boucher loses this election.
    [ Parent ]
    The partisan sample is five points more Democratic
    Than a fortnight ago when Boucher was up 51-41. Seems a little wild to me.
    [ Parent ]
    It's not really a scary number to me
    Because their polls are routinely better for Republicans than Republican internals.  shrug
    [ Parent ]
    Since SUSA had consistently shown Boucher winning
    it's quite possibly an outlier, even for SUSA.

    But in the light of other discouraging polls, it --might-- be a sign that more House elections are getting nationalized.

    [ Parent ]
    I believe it
    This is exactly the kind of district we should expect to lose this year.  
    [ Parent ]
    I would agree
    If the consistent margin for months had not been 50-40 or so. Indies completely turn upside down in the space of two weeks? Very odd.
    [ Parent ]
    Let me make another prediction:
    it is not unlikely that we won't hold any West Virginia House seats after this election.  
    [ Parent ]
    You think Rahall is gonna lose?

    [ Parent ]
    It's surely possible
    I mean, consider NH in 2006.  
    [ Parent ]
    No one thought Bass/Bradley would lose...
    And Bradley especially had clear leads, but he at least was under 50% and I believe his lead was somewhere around 9-10%. Rahall has been leading by 20%+, GOP has never released counter poll...
    [ Parent ]
    Anything is possible
    I think it unlikely though.
    [ Parent ]
    It's not one DCCC expects to lose
    I think this is the only Dem-favored race in the country where they have let the NRCC run ads without matching them.  DCCC thinks they're in good position here.
    [ Parent ]
    I think I'll withhold judgement
    until a more reliable pollster confirms this.
    [ Parent ]
    Again, again...
    ...Natural tightening. Any poll conducted 1 week before an election is going to be shocking. It's every election I've ever seen. Races turn on fundamentals, not polls a week before Election Day. Yada yada yada.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm Amazed Boucher Ever Led.....
    He voted for cap and trade in the heart of coal country.  There was just no way he was gonna explain that vote in a way that satisfies the locals.
    [ Parent ]
    It was a very stupid vote
    It was a vote that Pelosi should be ashamed of herself for even bringing up.  
    [ Parent ]
    Topline doesn't surprise me
    What surprises me is that this is SUSA, which had Boucher up big despite a lot of R-outlier polls elsewhere in the country. I figured if Boucher was up double-digits in SUSA, he was going to cruise.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Obama to stump for Perriello on Friday
    President Obama will lend a helping hand to an embattled star of the progressive movement in the House, TPM has learned. On Friday, Obama will stump for Rep. Tom Perriello, the first-term Democrat from Virginia's 5th Congressional district who's facing tough competition from Republicans eager to take back his Charlottesville-area seat.

    A Democratic source speaking on background called the Obama visit "big" and said the VA-05 race is "still close."

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    Interesting
    Most "hostile" territory that Obama has stumped for someone in this year?  Roanoke poll had his approval at 34% in the district.
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe they figure
    White voters can't get any more enthusiastic thus he is able to boost the AA vote.
    [ Parent ]
    Sounds like the plan
    Also college students, Charlottesville is probably about a good place to have an Obama rally as you can get
    [ Parent ]
    I have read a LOT of RECENT tea leaves that this one is still a tight race and everyone is surprised by it......
    I've read a bunch of stuff this month from professional prognosticators that both Republican and Democratic insiders say that this one is a lot tighter than anyone thought it would be at this stage.  Hurt has never been able to create space here, and Perriello is still within margin of error.  Everyone still expects Hurt to prevail in the end, but only narrowly, and the one wildcard is if Perriello and district Dems can get base Dem turnout higher than expected, which Perriello has the skills to do...but it's a lot tougher this time than 2 years ago.  One key is black turnout, they need to get it over 20%.  And Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle County are the other key, they need every white liberal to show up and vote.

    We still shouldn't EXPECT anything but a narrow defeat, but this is tighter and more hopeful than anyone thought possible at this stage.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I guess it's a risk they need to take,
    since the AA population is sizable here, and Perriello needs strong AA turnout to win.
    [ Parent ]
    Boost Dem Turnout
    It's Periello's only chance. And there are two Democratic strongholds in VA-05:
    Charlottesville (and to a lesser extent the surrounding Albemarle County); and the black-majority or black-plurality counties you see in Southside.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03
    [ Parent ]
    Thoughts from being near to the ground...
    Wow I am very surprised and excited about this. My district is not home to a competitive race so I have chosen to help with this race. It is a very interesting gamble by the Perriello campaign. Obama's approval is underwater in this district and Perriello has been clearly trailing in the polls. To me the most reasonable and reliable poll was done last week by Roanoke College and said Hurt 46 - Perriello 40. The interesting part about this poll is that only 14.6% of the voters were African-American. The district is 25% African-American so there is no doubt that Perriello has the chance to grow here. Will he is the big question.

    Interesting calculation is if he can get 20% AA turnout @ 90% of their vote and 40% of the white vote (he's at 32% in this poll; For comparison sake in 2006 Webb had 42% of the white vote in the exit poll) he would be tied with Hurt. I'm not sure that this is going to happen but clearly upping the African-American vote is his path to victory and Obama can definitely help with this. He's also betting that the anti-Obama is just about maxed out and he's unlikely to make in-roads here.

    Old poll as of 10/18 is here:
    http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Ev...

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    To me it makes sense...
    Obama is a factor whether he shows up in that district or not.  So, people who are voting against him because of Obama do not need Obama to show up in the area to remind them of that fact.  So, why not roll the dice?  Sometimes, it pays to be a little bit counterintuitive when your back is up against the wall because you could win.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    I agree....
    I totally agree. I obviously like Perriello but he does have an uphill race. The fact that he is down 6 points in an independent poll with only 14.6% AA voters in the sample with a population around 25% tells me that he can grow. I don't see many Goode voters voting for Perriello in 2010 so when 25% of the population is AA the higher the AA actual voters are the better it is for Tom. Whether he can win is another story but I'd love to be surprised by him lasting this cycle.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Looks like I picked the wrong year...
    To join Swing State!

    No, obviously there is no wrong year. But man, I wish I had joined this site back in 2008, when I bet it was fun to discuss all the Republicans in trouble! Looked like fun, anyway.

    I appreciate any one who has had anything good to say in the above comments about the Democrats, because today has been a pretty bad day on polling, IMHO.

    Look on the bright side
    Next Tuesday will likely create a plethora of juicy targets on their side next cycle.
    [ Parent ]
    It's funny.
    People should know going into to the whole election-watching thing that they're going to see some pretty freaky crap 1 week before Election Day.

    It's still kind of fun to watch though.

    [ Parent ]
    By the way...
    ...this point before Election Day is arguably the most fun part. Just because of the craziness.
    [ Parent ]
    LOL! Election watching!
    Is that like bird watching?  Maybe someone should write an election-watching guide!
    [ Parent ]
    Already on it
    Glad we're on the same page. Probably won't have it up until Monday though (because of those other kinds of midterms!)

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    I
    joined and became active during the height of Mass Senate. I'm with yah!  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Looks like I picked the wrong year
    to give up sniffing glue!

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
    [ Parent ]
    All those dials and gages.... and dials and gages...
    and polls and polls and money reports and money bombs and predictions and ....

    Airplane!

    [ Parent ]
    CA-20 SurveyUSA crosstabs
    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

    Not sure they were posted.  Also not sure they are of any real use.  They see a 50/45 lead for Vidak in the early vote, but Republicans lead the early vote statewide, which I've read is normal for CA.

    All isn't lost! PA-Sen tied
    While we wait for PPP's comforting CA poll, here's some good news from Reuters/Ipsos, which hasn't been the friendliest to Dems lately:

    Sestak and Toomey tied at 46%.

    http://www.reuters.com/article...

    Looks like you're first by one minute!
    Good poll for Sestak, for exactly the reason you say... Reuters has been at least a couple points less friendly than PPP to most Senate races this year.
    [ Parent ]
    Woohoo!!! n/t

    [ Parent ]
    No indication of when the poll
    was taken. FAIL.  
    [ Parent ]
    It's just a leader blurb
    I'm sure more info will be forthcoming...
    [ Parent ]
    My thought also

    [ Parent ]
    no, it says Friday/Sunday
    [ Parent ]
    The same days
    The tracker had Toomey 47-42.
    [ Parent ]
    So it's very current,
    overlaps almost exactly with the Muhlenberg poll from this morning (though that has one more day of data).
    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen Tied
    I think many here will enjoy this one from Reuters...

    Toomey 46(47)
    Sestak 46(37)

    The trendlines are from late August. To me they show Sestak consolidating his base and gaining in Indys.

    http://www.reuters.com/article...

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    State polls haven't been too bad today for our side
    House polls have sucked.
    [ Parent ]
    Nice!
    Thanks for reporting, Zornoph, even if the result might not be to your liking.

    I'm thinking, Muhlenberg notwithstanding, this is a close race, with a small advantage at the moment to Toomey. But it's great news for Dems that Sestak is right in the thick of it.

    We need to get this poll to the commenter upthread who was dispirited and unsure about a Philly trip this weekend.

    [ Parent ]
    Nice to see some good news

    [ Parent ]
    Pallone up 5 in Monmouth/SUSA
    i think
    NJ.com meant 52-45, since they mention a seven point lead, and their editors are often out to lunch
    [ Parent ]
    Terrible math
    "The Monmouth University poll shows Democrat Frank Pallone getting 52 percent of the vote to Republican Anna Little's 47 percent among likely voters.

    That 7-point margin in the poll conducted Oct. 22 to 25 is closer than just three weeks ago, when Pallone was up by 12."

    [ Parent ]
    NJ-06
    Monmouth:
    Pallone 52
    Little 45

    http://www.politickernj.com/42...

    Yes, 7
    Article I posted above had Little at 47.  Makes me feel a little better.
    [ Parent ]
    NJ-06/12
    It seems as if they've been moving together all year, and the last Monmouths had Holt up 5 and Pallone up 12.  I'd guess Monmouth has another NJ-12 ready to come out if they did NJ-06.  If Holt is still up in that one, I think they'll both be okay.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm more concerned about Holt
    He's got a better financed opponent, and is in a marginally tougher district.
    [ Parent ]
    i agree...
    That's why I'm curious where that race stands today.  I'll even settle for a SUSA.

    Polls are starting to be like crack.  I know it's wrong but I'll do anything for more!!  It can even be bad!! Gimme Scotty...gimme Fox...I DONT CARE just give me more polls!!!!!!11!!!1!

    [ Parent ]
    Not surprising
    Anna Little is a tough hard-nosed campaigner it is no surprise to me that this is tightening.  With that said there doesn't appear to be enough time to make up the ground, and Pallone should be safe.  Little is actually ahead in Monmouth County 52-45 in Monmouth County, which accounts a good portion of the district, but Pallone's large margins elsewhere more than makeup his weak showing in Monmouth County.

    I'll be interested to see the numbers in NJ-12, where Rush Holt last led by 5 points.  I could easily see Rush Holt being only minimally ahead (i.e. 2-3 points) if Anna Little is only down 7 in neighboring NJ-6.

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Sen: Suffolk confirms Brown/Boxer pulling away
    50-42 for Brown

    52-43 for Boxer (!)

    http://www.suffolk.edu/44241.html

    Good to see

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov/Sen: Boxer, Brown up 9, 8?
    http://www.suffolk.edu/44241.html

    Falls in line with the LA Times #s, but with a more believable voter model in tow. Doesn't, however, mesh with either camp's internals. With PPP poised to find both up comfortably as well, these may be getting out-of-reach for Republicans.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    I await Field with great interest
    What was the quote from the Boxer camp?
    [ Parent ]
    They said something along the lines of...
    Their internal polling being tighter than the LA Times findings. Fiorina, of course, leaked her internals at 44-44.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    That's probably just...
    b/c the Boxer campaign does NOT want Dems turning complacent. Again, remember that unlike other states, the CA Dems don't have a history of pulling out a good GOTV machine, especially not for vote by mail (they finally implemented a VBM push just this year!), so Boxer is relying on good Dem turnout next Tuesday to seal the deal for her. She wants to make sure all those Dems still plan to vote next Tuesday.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
    [ Parent ]
    Doesn't mean much,
    but this is the first poll I've seen in a long while that has Boxer's margin bigger than Brown's.
    [ Parent ]
    Another development...
    Fiorina admitted to the hospital this morning with an infection related to the reconstructive surgery from her mastectomy.

    Spokeswoman says she will "be back out on the campaign trail soon."

    Obviously not a good time for this to happen for Fiorina, but on the other hand it can't hurt to remind women voters about something they can relate to.

    http://www.mercurynews.com/ele...

    20, GOP, NH-02

    [ Parent ]
    I'm
    I'm such a political junkie, like you, my first thought was not on her health, but how it would affect the race.  Like you, I think it's a wash - she is off the trail, but gets press in a way that makes her look sympathetic.  And she's not running for Prez, having a health problem would hurt her in that case, no doubt about it.  Regardless, I'm sure all here wish her a very speedy recovery.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely
    hoping that she recovers quickly. Hopefully my comment didn't seem insensitive, just trying to put it in the perspective of the campaign.

    20, GOP, NH-02
    [ Parent ]
    Your comment
    Your comment was fine - and I think we just admit we all tend to think of things through this lens.  I'm so bad, that it only takes about two minutes after hearing that any particular senator has passed away to start wondering about that state's replacement procedures and who might get the slot.  It used to be that you were supposed to wait at least until after the funeral - and then wait at least 24 hours - but in today's world, people are speculating online within the hour.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    I hope she recovers quickly.
    From a political standpoint, I think it hurts her because it takes her off the trail and it suggests she may not be able to finish her Senate term. With the high profile deaths of Kennedy and Byrd, I'd think voters would be more likely to go for the "more fit" candidate.  
    [ Parent ]
    ouch
    I don't want her in the Senate, but I hope she's ok.

    41, Ind, CA-05
    [ Parent ]
    NRSC ad buys 10/26
    WV-SEN: $133K
    KY-SEN: $351K
    CO-SEN: $862K
    PA-SEN: $400K

    not a whole lot.  no IL-SEN, NV-SEN, WA-SEN.  WV-SEN buy is kind of wimpy.  maybe more is coming...?

    Also think that they are
    coordinating somewhat with the outside groups.  So that is why they are putting what we would consider to be "token" amounts in the field.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    Reason number 137,569 why I'm ready for this election to be over......
    The latest tweet by Jeremy Jacobs of Hotline On Call:

    New polls suggest sizable GOP wave coming: http://bit.ly/aeIxUN

    A "sizable GOP wave coming?"  Gee, ya think???  Thank you, Captain Obvious!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Amazing investigative reporting!
    Get him a Pulitzer!
    [ Parent ]
    Makes me wonder...
    What happened to the Democratic voters?  Where are they?  Did they just decide to take a trip out of the country all at once?  In 2010, folks signed up a hell of a lot of Democrats.  Why aren't they voting?  

    Also, I am not sure how much the LV sample captures Democratic voters.  I have a small hope that this will help in some congressional races with a good OFA turnout game.  I know that it will not help in all of them.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    Dems
    The sense I have is that:

    Low-information Dems are largely sitting this one out because they're depressed and/or bored because this is a midterm election.

    Low-information swing voters are once again taking out their frustration on the party in power. We had divided government in 2008, but the situation was seen as a result of Republican policies. This year the predictable results of the same situation are seen as a result of Democratic policies.

    Low-information Republicans are freaking out (and thus motivated) because they're scared and confused.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina hospitalized
    Costa and Murphy internals
    Costa says he's up 47-41.  Murphy says he's up 44-41.  Not particularly reassuring, especially Murphy.

    http://www.reuters.com/article...

    Whoops. Wrong link
    [ Parent ]
    DCCC release on Costa
    http://dccc.org/blog/entry/cos...

    has dates (Oct. 21-24, 400 LV) but I don't see pollster.

    [ Parent ]
    On
    the contrary Murphy's poll is reassuring. The poll was not meant to be released to the public they only did it because they had to. You can't fake a poll in a matter of hours, that is what Murphy had and it confirms to me that both Siena polls where outliers and Murphy is not a goner, yet. Even if you apply the -5 rule it is still a tossup.    

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Probably true
    that it's his real internal numbers, it jives with other info about the race, but I have to agree that he's still in relatively poor position at 44-41.
    [ Parent ]
    Better than nothing
    Both are tossups.
    [ Parent ]
    Good to see those Dems...
    ...fighting back against the absurdity that was those SUSA and Siena polls from earlier today.
    [ Parent ]
    Scotty R: Angle 49, Reid 45
    Ras Senate
    46-47ish Angle
    45       Reid
    [ Parent ]
    Gone quiet out there all of a sudden

    [ Parent ]
    I'm "polled out" on this one. My NV-Sen obsession now is...
    ...early voting.  We're halfway through the early voting period, and it's picking up harder this week, so those are the numbers that interest me.

    A week out, my interest in polling is in a steep downward slope.  I still look at them, but I increasingly shrug and think, "meh."  The election itself is so close that polls don't mean much anymore UNLESS they show a dramatic change in the direction of a particular race.  And regarding House race polls, every race is polled so sporadically that I no longer know what to trust.  I actually trust the Cook and Rothenberg ratings more than any House polling.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I don't trust either...
    At this point for me, it's all about the early voting. Again, yesterday was good for the GOP b/c many early vote sites were in GOP strongholds. Today may not be as bad, tomorrow is up in the air, but Thursday and Friday are looking quite good for us in terms of where there will be voting. And if we can finish early voting strongly this week, I have a feeling next week that Scotty R will be eating crow. ;-)

    Now I'm off to do more of my neighborhood. Wish me luck!

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    Good luck
    And I hope you are right.
    [ Parent ]
    Best of luck!
    You're doing great!

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    California again
    This time SUSA:

    Boxer leads 45-40 (she led by 2% last week). Brown leads 46-38 (he led by 7% last week).

    http://twitter.com/SovernNatio...

    Perhaps some real movement to Boxer then

    [ Parent ]
    yup
    Fox, SUSA and Suffolk all found Boxer gaining today.  
    [ Parent ]
    And PPP
    Boxer up 9, Brown 11.
    [ Parent ]
    Cook says 48-60 and 7-9
    http://cookpolitical.com/

    Which is where I am.  Except I'll go out on more of a limb and, after today, say 55-60.

    Senate I agree
    House I'm now up to 44.
    [ Parent ]
    I still think
    Good night for dems: 25
    Good night for Reps: 55

    Probable range: 30-45.  Lots of uncertainty.

    [ Parent ]
    I fear its going to be over 60 in the House
    Just a gut feeling after all of these horrible polls.  Just a week ago, I thought we could hold it to the low 40's.  
    [ Parent ]
    What about today
    Is so different than some other type of day?

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Polls in VA-09, NY-20, and CA-20
    The fact that we are now trailing in all of those shows that we are in big, big trouble.  
    [ Parent ]
    SurveyUSA house polls in the last week of the election
    In 2008 were off in some cases by 15+ points.  Stop peeing your pants, guys.
    [ Parent ]
    Not just SUSA
    NY-20 was not SUSA.  Also the generics are still bad.  You have to ignore history not to conclude that things will be bad.
    [ Parent ]
    I just cant believe that people didnt see this coming
    After the New Jersey loss and Massachussetts loss.  Those both tipped me off that we were in for a horrible year in 2010 and that it was time to bring in all of the plants to save them from the storm.
    [ Parent ]
    Nobody had any illusions
    There has been a wave since way back then. The question was how high. You aren't some almighty sage you know. Just an irritating defeatist.
    [ Parent ]
    So if we see three or four
    good polls later today or tomorrow, you'll start to feel better?

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Perhaps
    Im going to need to start seeing better House polls.  
    [ Parent ]
    I still don't see path going much over 55, personally.
    If KY-06, NV-03, NY-24, IA-03 are going our way, for example.
    [ Parent ]
    I think 60 and 8
    I think we'll lose 8 governorships too.  
    [ Parent ]
    Actually losing 12
    but with 4 (CA, HI, CT, MN) pickups.
    [ Parent ]
    Senate sounds right maybe but i'm
    still getting about 30-45 Dem losses (I keep forgetting to make a post about my rankings, i'll do it soon maybe). I can believe we lose 50-60. But any higher is ridiculous.  

    16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
    [ Parent ]
    Things certainly could be
    very bad, but I'm still not willing to go above 50-60 for our overall losses. I'm still thinking that 50 is their limit, given how unpopular they are, and if things seem a little bit more positive/less negative by the end of the week, I'm inclined to think they will hold the House by the narrowest of margins. Again, we can still lose a whopping 43 or 44 seats but keep the House if we pick up other seats. That's a lot of room for error.

    Anyway, check out this link and tell me what you think: http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    To me at least, it seems reasonable enough in its logic. It also seems like a nice guide about what races to watch.

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I don't see it as probable, but I wouldn't say higher than 60 is completely ridiculous...
    On a worst case scenario night, I think we lose more suburban seats (like NJ-12 and maybe 6, CO-7, CT-4) in addition to most of the toss-ups and leaners. These lists of 100 seats are stretching too far IMO, even in a worst case night, but I don't think 70 is IMPOSSIBLE.
    [ Parent ]
    Thank you!
    Nothing I've seen over the past few days has surprised me, and I'm still going with a net Repub gain of about 37-38 in the House. And a net Repub gain of 4-5 in the Senate.

    But I get the feeling that I am in the minority opinion, and that can be a little intimidating at times.  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm where Cook is on both House and Senate. Meh. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Charlie Cook's predictions?
    Since I am new at this for congressional polls and for those here who are more experienced:

    1. How acccurate is Cook at this?  (I have heard that he is usually good)

    2. Is it me or are we seeing way more polls and pollsters than normal this midterm election cycle?

    3. How does Cook determine his margins? (public or private polling etc?)


    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    Cook is very good
    He's one of the best.
    [ Parent ]
    Well I think much of it is based on polling
    He says so himself in the write-up. Though it is beyond me how he puts some much faith in many of these Republican polls (the reason for the massive increase together with Rasmussen) while dismissing Dem polls out of hand.
    [ Parent ]
    I say a net gain 39, factoring in seats Democrats will like pickup
    Only about 20 or so of the tossups will flip, which is close to about half of what is on the list. We'll have a Hung Congress, or as close to one as is possible.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    I think we'll lose no more than 7 in the Senate
    I'm not saying we couldn't lose 9, but 6-7 seems likeliest to me right now.

    Essentially, three Dem seats are gone (ND, AR, IN). However, I still think that WI, PA, IL, CO, NV, WV, and WA are still winnable (in order from least likely to most likely holds).

    Realistically, I think we'll lose WI, and probably lose PA and IL narrowly. But of the remaining five, I think we're only on track to lose 0-1. I think we'll hold WA, probably hold WV. Nevada is tricky, but I suspect Reid will narrowly hold on. It's Colorado that seems likely it go either way.

    I don't think at this stage we're looking at any pickups. Kentucky may looks to have slipped away, and though I wouldn't be stunned to see Missouri close to within 5 (statewide MO races tend to be close), a Carnahan win would be fairly shocking.

    So, yeah... I'm seeing 5-7, not 7-9. But Cook could be extrapolating based on poor generic ballot numbers and the bad House numbers.  

    [ Parent ]
    NM-01: Barela 49, Heinrich 47 (POS)
    The Barela internal mentioned in the Hotline article above was POS.  I don't doubt that Barela has closed in a bit on Heinrich, the climate in NM is not good, but if all they can do is +2 in a POS poll I'm not convinced Barela has taken the lead.
    Hopefully there is a fast response

    [ Parent ]
    Why? We're a week out, it really doesn't matter anymore......
    All money has been raised, remaining ad buys have been reserved, direct mail is on the doorsteps, GOTV is functioning in earnest, and voters' minds are almost completely made up.

    At this stage, the "narrative" and public perception no longer matter.

    So it doesn't matter if POS is right or wrong anymore, they can't hurt Heinrich now.  Either he's got the votes to win and gets 'em out, or he doesn't.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Sure it does
    Else Costa and Murphy wouldn't have released numbers.
    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough, but I don't see what they gain. Voters don't follow this stuff, and...
    ...have already decided to vote or will be persuaded by GOTV without regard to polling.

    This isn't like VA-Gov 2009, where Deeds being so far behind depressed base Dem turnout.  I don't think these close House races play out the same way, since they're competitive and have items up-ballot driving turnout.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I know this is off topic but...
    In the VA-Gov race, I really have no dog in fight because I live across the Potomac in DC.  However, when I saw who won the Dem primary, I said to my husband that the VA Dems must not want to win because how could they pick this guy?

    Of course, I did not know much about Deeds but he seemed somewhat lackluster.  That is all...

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...

    [ Parent ]
    That's why Perriello ought to run for Gov.
    If the tea party is still around in early 2013, Cuccinelli will be nominated and he's very beatable because unlike before, he can't hide his tinfoil hat beliefs or the fact that he accepted donations from a scam artist and never gave it to charity like the others who received donations from the scammer.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    It could be the difference
    It could be the difference between some folks voting third-part or writing-in or not. Or if they anticipate some undercast ballots leaving the House race blank, coverage of a competitive race could get those ballots filled out.

    On a more indirect/meta level, it could affect how prognosticators see the race, and therefore how local media reports on it in the closing days, which could have the same effect.

    You're probably not talking about, at most, a few hundred votes that could possibly be affected, but we've seen vote margins a lot closer than that. At the end of the contest, you'd hate to be the guy that lost by 40 votes and left a card up your sleeve that could have possibly helped.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm of the opinion...
    that there doesn't NEED to be a response. But me, being a poll junky, wouldn't mind it.

    There doesn't need to be a response because this poll is good news for Heinrich. A Republican internal only showing the Republican up by 2 points?

    [ Parent ]
    Oh I agree
    Just annoying went National Journal gives it weight in their narrative but dismisses Dem polls.
    [ Parent ]
    FL-Gov
    I'm wondering if people outside of FL are aware of the debate cheating incident last night and it's effect on the race?  
    http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/...
    It's getting major play in the state and while I think it's likely to be only a one day story, the fact that there is videotape of Sink cheating on TV throws her off at the worst possible time.  It also keeps focus on her uneven debate performance (though I don't think Scott was much better, frankly.)

    But to me it gives people who might have had misgivings about Scott a chance to rationalize their vote as 'they are both dishonest.'  It's a false equivalency; what Scott has been accused of is in no was comparable to what really is no more than a thoughtless mistake made during the debate, but the press has been somewhat harsh about it.  Adam Smith, the FL reporter who co-chaired the debate was blunt and harsh with his first headline - Alex Sink cheated during the debate
    http://www.tampabay.com/news/p...

    Scott's people are treating it like the gift it is; distributing a logo for iCheat with Sink's face on it and saying 'Want to cheat during a debate?  There's an app for that.'  Fwiw, the message was NOT on an iPhone, iPod, iPad or anything else that begins with 'i'.

    Sink has fired the person who sent her the message, but I'm sure she wishes she'd have pushed the phone away once she realized that someone was trying to send her a message.  Truth is, in the heat of the moment, I suspect she simply forgot the rule.  Not so good - the person who sent her the message was actually the person from her campaign who negotiated the rules.  He has no excuse and if she loses this thing by a small margin, I would be willing to say that it's his fault.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    It depends on how people look at it
    Is it really enough to tilt the race? It really is quite minor in the grand scheme of things. I really think many people would say "So what?".

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    Sink
    Normally, this would be much less of a deal, but Alex Sink has made integrity the centerpiece of her campaign.  The focus of nearly every ad she has put out has been 'Vote for me because my opponent is a cheat/crook.'  She has not gone after Scott on issues in any highly visible way.  So for her to be caught cheating on camera...well, it pokes a huge hole in her mainsail.  It's not like many races where the Dem argument is 'My opponent is a crazy teaparty kook' - were that the case, I'd say this was nothing, but this is about the worst thing that could have happened to her.  I think it will be over by the weekend if not before, but it gives Scott a boost in a razor-close race.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Meh. You're wishfully overplaying this in a big way. And news coverage doesn't matter......
    Just because the news covers something, it doesn't mean voters care.

    This "debate cheating" thing is trivial and it's wishful on your part to think this alters Sink's public image with voters.  "She cheated in the debate!" just SOUNDS small-time in the storytelling of a person's character; it's something a lot less than even cheating on a high school test.  I can picture average voters by and large giggling and shrugging off this "debate cheating" thing, they're not going to care.  It's the stuff of campaign junkies, not the stuff of ordinary people's voting decisions.

    Sink may lose, but it won't be because of this, not even slightly.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Could be
    There is no question that the press overplays this sort of stuff.  Rick Scott's people are already going up with a radio ad over it, though.  I don't think it would move many people, but this race is so close, that there is little room for error on either side.


    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Scott is acting like a child
    responding to this, and I'm starting to think it could backfire.  The pejorative "cheater" T-shirts and stuff, and cutting an ad over it?  Really?  Someone wrote a text that she didn't know about.  Someone else literally stuck it in here face.  At that point, it's basically a reflex to read it, and it was just two lines.  It would take extraordinary presence of mind to think, "This could be the sort of message that violates the debate rules, so I'd better not."  Scott runs a risk of coming off petty and mean-spirited here.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    It can be overplayed.  I think Scott should try to get at most two friendly news cycles over it and then just drop it.  If he's still talking about this on the weekend, he's a fool. (Which many here think he is, anyway, I know :) )

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    I
    don't think he's a fool at all. He is the text book definition of unelectable. Never in my life could I imagine someone like him winning. He has to have real smarts, even in a year like this to overcome his baggage. Or maybe it just means money can buy votes, IDK.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    How
    are they remotely comparable? Defrauding the US Gov't and getting a slap on the wrist. Answering a text that you did not know was about the debate. It could have been an emergency, she didn't know what it was. What a bunch of hype, is the media really covering this non story? Vultures are desperate as can be.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Equivelent
    As I said in the initial post, I don't think that the two things are equivalent at all, but yes, the FL press is on top of it in a big way.  I'm curious to see if the national press makes anything of it - I'd expect to see it on Hardball, which is what I usually watch, but FL is where it matters and because there is live footage of it, it's getting lots of play.
    It's rather typical of the press, I agree, but it's a sign of the 24 hour news cycle.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Give me a break. Committing the largest
    Medicare fraud in our country's history does not compare to receiving a note during the debates. This has about as much traction as the stories about Bush cheating during the 2004 debates that circulated on left blogs. Bunch of nonsense.
    [ Parent ]
    This
    is SO not a big deal. It would not surprise me if the media made it into one, but it does not matter. It should not matter, it is not Sink's fault and she did everything in her power to fix it. Shame on the MSM for making this into a real story. If voters do not care about defrauding the US government and getting a small fine instead of years in prison then this will certainly be no big deal at all.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: Angle and NV GOP allege voter fraud based on conjecture.
    Genuine concern or desperation?
    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...
    It particularly fumes me how this letter constantly refers to the SoS by his party affiliation, implying heavily that he's complicit in something criminal.

    More:
    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

    Also, closing ads are out there.
    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!

    Desperation. SOS responded that it wasn't an
    official complaint but a fundraising ploy.

    Reid's closing ad is excellent.  

    [ Parent ]
    Angle is setting up her...
    if I lose, Harry Cheated argument...

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...
    [ Parent ]
    She must have datat
    telling her something awful about the race. Then again, she's said a lot of crazy shit during the course of the campaign, so who knows?

    Anyway, we always hear that the Democrats cheat, but the Republicans never seem to be able to do anything about it. Why is that? Is it possible that all of their accusations are as reliable as Christine O'Donnell's understanding of the Constitution?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    The way they pushed back on the story
    That Reid's internals are consistently 6 points was that they have it as a "dead heat" which isn't what I'd call a consistent small lead for her as per Rasmussen.
    [ Parent ]
    Someone isn't feeling real confident
    Pulling the cheating argument says to me that Angle isn't feeling to sure about her chances.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    Nah, it's just that the Republican definition of a "fraudulent" vote...
    ...is someone who doesn't have white skin showing up to vote.  There are quite a few of those voters in Nevada, so "FRAUD!" is asserted as a reflex, pretty much as a nervous tick.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    And this is probably effective
    as a sort of GOTV tool for the Republicans. As in: "Those scary Acorn types are trying to steal our election. Don't let them!"
    [ Parent ]
    Democrats can be semi-happy that ACORN has faded as an issue
    If ACORN hadn't been defunded and was playing an active role in organizing and GOTV this year, you would have Republicans in every close state (IL, NV, WA, CO) screaming "OMG teh Acorn thugs are stealing the election by sneaking 40 trillion illegals across teh border and registering them as Democratic in teh machine cities! FRAuDD!!!!!"

    Whatever your views on ACORN (and I guess they are mostly positive here), the fact that they aren't visible this year is a plus because it will cut down on a lot of GOP yelling and screaming.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Actually
    My views of ACORN aren't very positive.

    That said, I think the issue of ACORN "fraud" is one of the most bogus issues in American politics. Sure, I'm sure some people registered twice or whatever, but the impact of this "fraud" has been almost zero.

    WA-07, 34 years old

    [ Parent ]
    As long as there's democracy, there will be fraud allegations
    There was a great column (I forget the author and newspaper) right before the 2008 election on the tradition of crying fraud in a close election. It summized that both parties accuse the other of fraud but in different ways: Republicans accuse Democrats of registering ineligible voters, and Democrats accuse Republicans of trying to block registered voters from the polls. It didn't get into how often these accusations are true or where and when they may have been.

    Anyway, I'm getting off topic. I don't expect fraud to be an issue this year in any race, but I'm sure we'll see at least one close race where fingers are pointed.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    New Murray ad hitting Rossi
    Nothing especially new, but thought y'all might be interested.


    A couple of my tweets to Chuck Todd
    In response to MSNBC.com's "First Read" of Oct. 25:

    *** How to spot a GOP wave: On Election Night, which takes place eight days from today, we'll likely be able to tell very early if Republicans are on the verge of taking back the House -- and possibly more. Polls close completely at 7:00 pm ET in five states with a handful of key races: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Virginia. (And we'll begin to see returns in Indiana at 6:00 pm ET, when many polling places close in the state.) Let's start with IN-9, which has become the quintessential swing district because Rep. Baron Hill (D) lost the seat in '04, but won it back in '06 and was re-elected in '08. This race is No. 42 in our House rankings -- right about the number the GOP will need to take back the House (because Dems will likely pick up two to four seats). So if this race is called for Hill's challenger, Tea Party-backed Todd Young, you know it's going to be a good night for the GOP.
    *** Looking at IN, GA, and KY: Another place to watch is GA-8, because if Republicans are winning it, they could very well be on their way to a gain of 50-plus seats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D) won that district with just 51% in 2006 and 57% in '08. The other early House contest to watch is in KY-6, which could forecast a big GOP tidal wave if Republicans are winning it -- or are even running close. The congressman representing that district is Ben Chandler (D), who won his previous contests with 65% (in '0 and 85% (in '06). Other races to watch in that first hour: GA-2, IN-2, SC-5, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, and VA-11. And closing at 7:30 are the key races in North Carolina (NC-2, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11), in Ohio (OH-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-1, and in West Virginia (WV-1, WV-3). If Republicans are winning a majority of these 20 races, say hello to Speaker John Boehner.

    And me:

    @chucktodd Ds win KY6, IN2, GA2, VA9, VA11, NC2, NC7, NC11, OH6, OH13, OH18, WV1, WV3. Rs win IN9, GA8, SC5, VA2, VA5, NC8, OH1, OH15, OH16

    @chucktodd There. Sorry if I spoiled the suspense.

    This election needs more Chuck Todd!!!
    He's my favorite political analyst, but I just haven't seen him anywhere this cycle.

    In 2008, I almost joined the Chuck Todd fan club. I will say regarding Chuck's predictions IN-9, WV-1, SC-5, NC-8 I would not be willing to call yet.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    [ Parent ]
    I liked Chuck Todd..
    ...when he was at The Hotline. Since he's joined NBC, he seems to have gone down a little bit in terms of respectability. I just don't like cable news talking heads.
    [ Parent ]
    I think those are the commenter's predictions,
    not Todd's.
    [ Parent ]
    CC
    The Fix (Chris Cillizza) is my personal favorite.  If I visit DC anytime soon, I'll probably plan it so I can go to one of his 'Politics and Pints' monthly trivia games.  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Reuters PA-Sen poll
    I know this has already been referenced upthread, but here are the internals:
    http://www.ipsos-na.com/downlo...

    FYI, registered voters are breaking for Sestak by 4, though the LV result is tied at 46.

    What's not so great is that the biggest chunk of the undecided are indies (at 28%).

    Corbett up 6

    [ Parent ]
    Sestak winning indies though

    [ Parent ]
    Actually, I'll take that back...
    They show indies breaking by 8 points for Sestak, so that the fact that many of them are undecided shouldn't necessarily be a concern for Dems.
    [ Parent ]
    Boxer up 9, Brown 11
    Fantastic


    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    Those races are essentially over now,
    based on the totality of polling over the past couple days. Patty Murray better get ready for an all-out assault. She's probably the next-lowest hanging fruit.
    [ Parent ]
    Still want to see Field
    But agree on Murray.
    [ Parent ]
    No more assault possible in WA
    At least 2/3rds (probably more) of voters have already locked in their vote.  
    [ Parent ]
    Problem with WA
    is the election has mostly happened already. Its all vote by mail state.

    WA-07, 34 years old
    [ Parent ]
    A perfect voter model, too
    Some things to note...

    - Among early voters, Boxer actually has only a 2-point advantage. Brown, on the flip side, is already up 7 points among this crowd.
    - That Fiorina and Whitman have sizable leads among the Indie vote just shows like domineering Democrats are over every other voting block/demographic.
    - Are Boxer and Brown really poised to win the white vote? So says PPP, but I have my doubts about that particular internal. Fiorina/Whitman at 35% among Hispanics sounds about right.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    NJ-03
    Monmouth:
    Runyan 48
    Adler 43

    Rutgers/Eagleton:
    Runyan 44
    Adler 44

    http://www.politickernj.com/42...

    There goes that seat
    What did we all do to deserve this?
    [ Parent ]
    It's a tough hold...
    People may not realize that the Ocean County machine all but sat on their hands in 2008 for Chris Myers.  The seat was Republican for 130 years before that, and not only does 50% of the population of the district come from Ocean, but a much larger percentage of REPUBLICANS in the district come from Ocean.  GOP Chair George Gilmore barely supported the nominee last time.  He was fine with Adler and wanted an Ocean GOPer this time.  But somehow Runyan gained steam and Gilmore must have been impressed with something, because he backed him hard and early.  (Runyan is from Burlington County (45% of the district) - Adler is from Cherry Hill, the only Camden County town in the district).  Now with Toms River Schools Super. (and Republican) Ritacco indicted, it actually may be helpful that they didn't go with an Ocean County GOP candidate, because there's word of more indictments coming so the Ocean GOP could take a hit...

    Adler not voting for HCR may have hurt him with the base, I don't know, but he has gotten bad press the last two weeks for the connection to propping up the Tea Party candidate.

    [ Parent ]
    Jesus Christ, the panic attack
    reaction is getting old.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    I miss Tekzilla
    Seriously.
    [ Parent ]
    Tekzilla
    never quite goes away.  He shows up every few months and reminds us how fucked we are.  You out there Tek?  Come back, little fella!  We need you now more than ever, because you are now one of the more positive commenters based on today's display.  Buck up, you miserable rat bastards!!!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    You're really right, and the thing about Tekzilla that makes him OK is...
    ...his predictions of doom are filled with anxious panic, not condescending self-satisfaction.  He's 100% on our side.  Some other newbies here, I have doubts about them.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    I like to think of him as our Marvin
    The Paranoid Android. I hope that isn't too condescending.
    [ Parent ]
    Tossup
    Particularly with the SurveyUSA connection.
    [ Parent ]
    Lean D until alarm bells go off
    DCCC has barely defended it, while NRCC has barely went after it.  Outside groups have largely stayed on the sidelines.  Adler still has a million dollar COH advantage.  This isn't a battlefield, IMO, and goes to show how badly the public polls are missing what people likely know is the case behind the scenes.
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition) | 469 comments

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