Time for our second-to-last round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings.
- PA-Sen: Lean R to Tossup
- CA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
- CO-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
- MD-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
- AZ-03: Likely R to Lean R
- CA-03: Likely R to Lean R
- CO-04: Tossup to Lean R
- FL-02: Tossup to Lean R
- FL-12: Likely R to Lean R
- MA-06: Safe D to Likely D
- MA-10: Lean D to Tossup
- MS-04: Lean D to Tossup
- NC-11: Likely D to Lean D
- NY-20: Lean D to Tossup
- NY-22: Likely D to Lean D
- OR-05: Lean D to Tossup
- TN-04: Lean D to Tossup
- TX-27: Safe D to Likely D
- VA-11: Lean D to Tossup
- WA-06: Safe D to Likely D
14 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction. If anything, we’re seeing a continuation of the pattern where the Dems in some high-profile statewide races seem to have bottomed out and there’s a little bounce-back, but where things seem to be keeping on worsening in the House. (Although that probably doesn’t have as much to do with the overall national atmosphere continuing to get worse, as it just does with additional polling coming to light that lets us see more underserved races in sharper relief.)
Scott Murphy is going strong and Jeff Perry imploded with the police scandal and has been hammered over that. Were there recent polls in those races I missed?
for the SSP House ratings, assuming Ds and Rs take all Lean and Likely on their side, and split the tossups….
Elway has Schrader +12 and at 50% today.
Cook still has it lean Dem, Rothenberg has Connolly still in the nearly-safe “Dem favored” category.
What did you learn? Or is it a typo?
Really?
Fimian is three clicks too far to the right for that district. The Republicans only held for as long as they did because of Tom Davis.
MA-06
MA-10
MS-04
NY-20
NY-22
OR-05
TX-27
WA-06
Sorry SSP guys.
VA-11 as a tossup makes no sense at all. I would not rate it as a toss-up. I would rate it as lean Democrat. Gerry Connolly has a long career serving in local government and is not a lightning rod for comments. Districts like this are trending toward team blue as it is full of young white collar highly educated workers and many government employees. The economy here has also not been hit to the extent that is widespread in other areas across the country. Advertising here is extremely expensive as it within the Washington DC TV market thus making Fimian’s re-introduction to voters that much harder (he ran in 2008). If Connolly loses then we are in for a huge wave.
When were the last updates, because MI-1, MI-7, and MI-9 have all, in my opinion, moved from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up”, at the very least. I’d even say that an argument can be made this late in the game that M-9 could be moved into the “Lean Dem” category and maybe even MI-7 if you’re talking about momentum.
Move really warranted on that “poll”?
Besides the points you raise, Cloud’s poll has no internals or demographic breakdowns – who are they polling? How many Ds? How many Rs?
Well, I hate to say it, but I am starting to think it belongs in Lean Dem. Oberstar let himself get caught up in the HRC trap as his name was brought up numerous times due to his pro-life positions and Stupak’s overall grand-standing on the issue. It started with Oberstar not getting some pro-life endorsements which made news, the cook the numbers internal from his opponent, and now the Duluth paper endorsed the GOPer. All it takes is an air of vulnerability for people to take a look at the “other guy” and then it snowballs, especially in a district that is by the numbers just safe enough for a DFLer to win and get incumbent advantage consistently.
But on the other side of that, in any other year, lefty Duluth and union Iron Range can carry this district to a win. Future house Speaker Sertich sounds like he’ll do it in 2012.
Two 14 point margins in row not enough to switch it to likely?
Didn’t see these posted earlier.
Released yesterday
Abercrombie 51
Aiona 43
Djou 48
Hanabusa 45
http://www.staradvertiser.com/…
http://www.staradvertiser.com/…
From reading the article it seems that the 8 point margin in the governors race matches with Democratic internals, but Republican internals say it is a 4 point race
That is where they were after 1994. Staying above that would make regaining the House just a put away in 2012.
I noticed this when I was doing my comprehensive run-down of every single district and how I think they are going to go. But has anyone else noticed that the news media often gets wrong the net gain number that Republicans are going to need in order to take over the House?
The number the media often gives is 39. Take as examples these headlines.
Poll shows GOP likely to surpass the 39 seats it needs to claim House control
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/n…
39 Seats Away: Republicans Hungry to Take Back the House
http://www.theatlanticwire.com…
Hunting For ‘Mr. 39’ In House, GOP Eyes Ky. Races
http://content.usatoday.net/di…
The Republicans need a net gain of 39 to take over the House only if you consider the current 433-member House. Remember, there are two vacancies. A majority of 433 would be 217, and 178 (the current number of Republicans in the House) + 39 = 217.
After the election, however, there are going to be 435 members in the House. And 218 is a majority of 435.
The only way you can come up with a specific number about what the net gain needs to be for the Republicans is if you allocate those two vacancies that currently exist in the House. I confidently assume those 2 vacancies are going to be Republican after the election, so I automatically consider them as such.
Any baseline I work off of in determining the upcoming election assumes Republicans have 180 seats in the House right now. And the net gain that Republicans will need with 180 seats is 38. 180+38=218.
Just said in the debate that Jim Bunning was his favorite Kentucky politician, specifically citing his opposition to unemployment benefits as a bold move.
Rich kids should never be allowed near Ayn Rand books.
I think this gets made into an attack ad that runs starting Wednesday.
I don’t see VA-11 being a tossup race. Keith Fimian could probably win in Nye or Perriello’s district, but he’s way too conservative to win in NoVa.
Also I wasn’t aware the situation had worsened for Lincoln Davis in TN-04.
Why has this race been so stealth? Is there any possibility of an under-the-radar surge by Hodes? The last I saw it was still a single-digit race.
Muhlenberg Tracker
Toomey: 48%(+1)
Sestak: 40%(-2)
First Sestak mysteriously coming up for no apparent reason, then him going back down for no apparent reason. You’re left to guess that maybe he went up due to ‘Democrats coming home’, or maybe that he went down because ‘Undecideds broke for Toomey’, but aside from guessing there’s no obvious reason for any of it, its just strange. If it can do all that within just a few days, well hey, there’s still another week before the election, who knows how many more changes we’ll have 🙂 .