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SSP Updates 20 Race Ratings

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 5:14 PM EDT


Time for our second-to-last round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings.

  • PA-Sen: Lean R to Tossup

  • CA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
  • CO-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
  • MD-Gov: Tossup to Lean D

  • AZ-03: Likely R to Lean R
  • CA-03: Likely R to Lean R
  • CO-04: Tossup to Lean R
  • FL-02: Tossup to Lean R
  • FL-12: Likely R to Lean R
  • MA-06: Safe D to Likely D
  • MA-10: Lean D to Tossup
  • MS-04: Lean D to Tossup
  • NC-11: Likely D to Lean D
  • NY-20: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-22: Likely D to Lean D
  • OR-05: Lean D to Tossup
  • TN-04: Lean D to Tossup
  • TX-27: Safe D to Likely D
  • VA-11: Lean D to Tossup
  • WA-06: Safe D to Likely D

14 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction. If anything, we're seeing a continuation of the pattern where the Dems in some high-profile statewide races seem to have bottomed out and there's a little bounce-back, but where things seem to be keeping on worsening in the House. (Although that probably doesn't have as much to do with the overall national atmosphere continuing to get worse, as it just does with additional polling coming to light that lets us see more underserved races in sharper relief.)
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SSP Updates 20 Race Ratings | 175 comments
Why MA-10 and NY-20?
Scott Murphy is going strong and Jeff Perry imploded with the police scandal and has been hammered over that. Were there recent polls in those races I missed?
NY-20 is my only disagreement

[ Parent ]
It's close enough that Clinton is campaigning there
On November 1st...
[ Parent ]
Based on an NYT article yesterday,
that seems to be firewall defense (along with CT and MA). I don't think it necessarily means the races aren't leaning our way, just that Dems don't want to leave anything to chance.
[ Parent ]
In NY-20
there were two GOP internals giving Gibson a small lead. There's a poll from one of the local pollsters (Siena or Marist, can't remember which) coming out tomorrow, though, so we might have egg on our faces pretty quickly.

In MA-10, over the last week there was a GOP internal with Perry with the lead, plus two public polls with Keating up in the low to mid single digits. Call it Tossup/Tilt D if you'd like.

[ Parent ]
I've been harping on...
...this idea of tightening of races for the last week or so. That being, this idea that this late in an election cycle, it seems like every race gets excitingly (and I would argue artificially) tight. It's really just more of an indication that voters are actually starting to pay attention.

I suspect the polls in many of those races can be explained away by that principle.  

[ Parent ]
It would be Siena
Marist doesn't poll congressional races.

FWIW, a Murphy campaign person told me they also now show the race to be in the single digits with Murphy still up. I have some apprehension about the Siena poll tomorrow.

[ Parent ]
Even with some slippage
He should still be ahead. And don't forget he has Gillibrand to help.
[ Parent ]
She has not cut any ads for him
maybe we will see them in the last few days.
[ Parent ]
Just being on the ballot helps

[ Parent ]
Historically,
upstate NYers have been notorious ticket splitters.  
[ Parent ]
Gillibrand and Murphy
have similar political profiles, so the type of person who would vote for one probably resembles the type that would vote for the other.
[ Parent ]
Perry's scandal has been around for a while
It's been in and out of the papers since it intially broke sometime in the late spring or early summer. The scandal is still a significant campaign issue--and just might cost Perry the race--but it's not an "October surprise" that is just hitting voters now.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
didn't the victim
Come out and do a presser saying that Perry was kind of lying, that there was no way he didn't hear her crying when she was assaulted by the bad cop? I thought that's why it was back in the headlines and leading newscasts again last week.  Kind of was an October surprise because she waited (20 years) for this moment 12 days before the election to talk.
[ Parent ]
I guess that means an average projected 37.5 seat loss in the House
for the SSP House ratings, assuming Ds and Rs take all Lean and Likely on their side, and split the tossups....
At this stage I'd take this....
I'm thinking it will be closer to 50 net seats for the GOP.  
[ Parent ]
Can't ignore the generic
If they're 7-9 point ahead on the average of all the generics, it's very hard to believe that they won't win the House, and not gain in the 50 seat vicinity.  But maybe this year the generics will be proved wrong.
[ Parent ]
Generic ballot
Look at the dem surge heading into 1994:  http://politicalarithmetik.blo... It appears that they were even leading in the generic ballot. Although the generic ballot is not everything, it seems the 2010 dems are far behind the 1994 dems by this measure.  
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
'Tis very true, which is why the numbers are so scary right now...
The difference between 1994 and now being that the GOP has terrible approvals as well and that the dems have a much, much better field operation now than they've had in the past.
[ Parent ]
You could also
view what happened in 1994 as part of a natural realignment, a change in control of a large number of seats that was bound to happen sooner or later. That's not necessarily the case this year.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
generic/1994
That may be true.  OTOH, you could say something similar about this year as well:  The Ds made huge gains into hostile territory in 2006 and 2008 and will lose that territory sooner or later.  A year when unemployment is around 10%; Dems control the white house, senate, and house; and the GOP has an unprecedented generic ballot lead seems like a decent enough candidate.  

In both years, the bottom line could be over-exposure.  In '94, it took the form of the 1990 redistricting combined with the decline of ticket-splitting in the south; in 2010, it may be winning a lot of GOP seats and losing very few over the last two cycles.  

The issues that have moved voters may not into the future.  I don't know how many death penalty/welfare-centered campaigns are going to carry Republicans to victory this year.  I am not sure voters are too concerned about Bush and Iraq this year. Changes in power and circumstances reshuffle the issues and concerns and with them the voters.  Dems may find it tougher to scare swing voters on issues like abortion or foreign policy overreach when a Dem is president and republicans may have a tougher time scaring voters about tax-and-speend liberalism or crime when a republican is in the oval office.  

[ Parent ]
I'm at net 40 down right now
I reckon it'll go slightly higher by next Tuesday but won't quite reach 50.
[ Parent ]
At this rate,
I'd be happy with a net loss of 45 or so - not so much as to make the House unevenly divided. It would be good if Republicans, over the next two years, have to rely on a high degree of party unity to pass controversial legislation (that can then be used against them in '12).
[ Parent ]
I try to go down the list of competative House races
one at a time and see if I can come up with a net 41-ish gain for Republicans. I actually go chronologically according to poll closing times on Election Night. For example...

KY-03 (Dem seat that is going to stay Dem)
KY-06 (D-D)
IN-09 (Dem seat that is going to go Repub)
IN-08 (D-R)
IN-02 (D-D)
GA-02 (D-D)
GA-08 (D-R)
GA-11 (D-D)
FL-08 (D-R)
FL-22 (D-D)
FL-24 (D-R)
FL-25 (Repub seat that is going to stay Repub)
SC-05 (D-R)
VA-02 (D-R)
VA-05 (D-R)
VA-09 (D-D)
VA-11 (D-D)
NC-07 (D-D)
NC-08 (D-R)
NC-11 (D-D)
WV-01 (D-D)
WV-03 (D-D)
OH-01 (D-R)
OH-06 (D-D)
OH-13 (D-D)
OH-15 (D-R)
OH-16 (D-R)
OH-18 (D-D)
FL-02 (D-R)
MI-07 (D-D)
MI-08 (D-D)
TX-17 (D-R)
TX-27 (D-D)
AL-02 (D-D)
CT-04 (D-D)
CT-05 (D-D)
DE-AL (Repub seat that is going to go Dem)
IL-10 (R-D)
IL-11 (D-R)
IL-14 (D-D)
IL-17 (D-R)
MD-01 (D-R)
MS-01 (D-R)
MS-04 (D-D)
MO-04 (D-D)
NH-01 (D-R)
NH-02 (D-D)
NJ-03 (D-D)
PA-03 (D-R)
PA-04 (D-D)
PA-07 (D-R)
PA-08 (D-D)
PA-10 (D-D)
PA-11 (D-R)
PA-12 (D-D)
TN-04 (D-R)
TN-06 (D-R)
TN-08 (D-R)
AR-01 (D-R)
AR-02 (D-R)
AR-04 (D-R)

By this time, you are well into Election Night, and so far, the net gain for the Republicans is 26. And you are already through about 27 of the 50 states (give or take a few districts in certain states that are in later time zones than some more easternmost parts of those states). We've got 23 more of the 50 states to go and the Republicans need an additional net gain of 15-ish House seats. If you consider Dems picking up LA-02 and HI-01, then that actually makes the net gain needed for the Repubs 17-ish.

[ Parent ]
Correction***
I got a little carried away with the "(D-R)"s down towards the end of the list. AR-04 I meant to say (D-D). That is, a Dem seat that is going to stay Dem.

So, at that point in Election Night, Repubs actually have a net gain of 25, and they need an additional net gain of 16-ish to take the House (18-ish if you count on them losing LA-02 and HI-01 later in the evening).

[ Parent ]
Is There Poll Evidence Showing Spratt In That Deep of Trouble?
I haven't heard that much chatter about him but now suddenly see him on everybody's triage list.
[ Parent ]
Actually no.
SC-05 is kind of a crazy wildcard state that I don't know how will go down, so I'm just considered it going Repub for the sake of argument.
[ Parent ]
Or Baron Hill For That Matter.....
The conventional wisdom on some of these races turning over seems to have happened under my nose.  Or are you just going with gut instinct on Hill going down?
[ Parent ]
Ditto.
Same thing with IN-09.
[ Parent ]
By my estimation...
...after going through all the states, I would say it's right on the cusp. I suspect the House in the next Congress will be closely divided. I mean, something like 219-216. I don't know which party is going to be just barely in the majority.
[ Parent ]
Usually what happens...
...is that the close races by in large go one way or another rather than a split down the middle.  Think 2000 when the Democrats won a boatload of senate seats by the narrowist of margins.

Depending on the turnout this election could either be "not so bad" or catastrophic.  The potential for the latter scares the daylights out of me all over the place.

As for the rankings VA-11 and MA-10 are the only two I disagree with.  I'd still keep them lean though MA-06 perhaps should be lean dem.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
I'm thinking you might be on to something.
A certain number of seats are going to fall. I think that they are going to gain 20-30 without breaking a sweat, although what seats they win is arguable. But the Democrats still seem to be in the races in a large number of districts, and in both those districts and in others, where they are down by a little or a lot, they are still fighting like dogs. Aren't they still spending big against a bunch of the Democrats in Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania?  Wouldn't they have Kratovil or Kuster's district in the bag by now? It's tricky to extrapolate something that applies nationwide from each district, but suffice it to say that if they haven't sewn certain seats up at this point, the wave isn't going to be as huge as some think.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Local issues and factors still come into play
It's true that in a "wave" election, you'll see candidates of one party doing worse than expected and candidates of the other party doing better than expected for no apparent reason, but sometimes you'll see representatives in tough district who know they're in danger and take extra steps to insulate themselves and hence survive, while there will be a couple of surprises because of complacency.

So simply saying that just because they don't have, say, MD-01 sewn up at this point doesn't really mean much.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not.
It's harder to judge because there's such a pervasive influence of outside groups, but you'd figure that if the wave were to be really, really big, as in 70-plus seats, they'd be focusing on other districts rather than Perriello's or Kratovil's. They aren't going to leave anything to chance, of course, and as you said, local issues due come in to play. Still, I have a hard time imagining that the gains will be as big as some predict if they are still going after someone who represents a district that McCain by a large margin.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Ha Ha!
That's exactly where I was in my last rundown of the House rankings.  Nice.

Next update comes tomorrow, and it doesn't look like the total number is going to move by more than 2 or 3 in either direction.  It's kind of scary to think about, the House coming down to one or two seats out of 435, but it looks like that's what we're looking at here.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Why OR-05?
Elway has Schrader +12 and at 50% today.
SUSA had Scrader down about 10 yesterday, I think
It was reported in one of the daily diaries, if I remember right.
[ Parent ]
But AAF and Moore (both R pollsters) also have Scrader up in
their newer polls. SURVEY USA is the only poll showing Scrader up. I believe we'lll see a DCCC poll in the next day or two with Scrader up 8 and over 50%.

This should be a "lean D" not toss up especially given the fact that Dem ballot return is way ahead as well.

[ Parent ]
Source please
it would certainly be good news.
[ Parent ]
Here are the results of the poll the Oregonian commissioned
http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

conducted by Elway

Now I can only find the Aug 23 AAF/Ayers poll which had Schrader up by 8 but AAF has been polling monthly for the RCCC and Ryan Kost from the Oregonian has written about each poll released.

[ Parent ]
True
But also down 10 in SurveyUSA and down in two separate GOP internals. (All taken with requisite grain of salt, of course, but consider them cumulatively.)
[ Parent ]
Crisitunity, WHY is VA-11 suddenly a TOSSUP???......
Cook still has it lean Dem, Rothenberg has Connolly still in the nearly-safe "Dem favored" category.

What did you learn?  Or is it a typo?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Good question
It's more financial than anything, based on Fimian raising more than $1 million last quarter (although Connolly still has a CoH edge even with that). And third-party IE groups (at least AAN, I think) have moved in. Still, in absence of any public polling (and we haven't seen any internals here except for that Fimian one from last spring) -- in all, this is one of the big-dollar races that he have the haziest picture of -- it may be more precautionary than anything else, and hopefully one that'll be proven to be an overreaction on our part. Again, think of it as Tossup/Tilt D if you'd prefer.  
[ Parent ]
I agree that there has been a striking
lack of polling in VA-11. For anyone who wants to make a prediction about that race in any direction, that lack is also a little disturbing. You still have a thought in the back of your head that says: "There's no polling. Are my assumptions completely wrong?"

Even looking at fundraising though, I think it's more "lean Connolly" than tossup because where individual contributions come from is arguably the most important sign in fundraising data. When I look at the list of Connolly's and Fimian's individual contributions at FEC.gov, I see slightly more Virginia contributions going to Connolly rather than Fimian.

Others should look at the FEC reports as well and tell me if they see the same. Here they are:

For Fimian:

http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureS...

For Connolly:

http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureS...

[ Parent ]
Considering they throw them out like confetti
If the GOP had polling showing Fimian up we would have seen it.
[ Parent ]
Connolly
That's a reasonable explanation but still Connolly has a very high name recognition as he was head of Fairfax County Board of Supervisors and has been elected numerous times in the district. Also as I noted below this is a district where a huge chunk of the money comes from government related sources. Railing about wasteful government spending and freezing federal employee hiring at any rate will not play in that district. He's highly unlikely to lose. If Tom Davis were running it may be different but he's not.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
I think you're jumping at shadows
DCCC would go up on air here if there was even moderate danger, like they did in WA-02 and IA-01.  This race is Lean D at worst...
[ Parent ]
I take that back
They did go up on air this week.  But still, by that metric you should move IA-01 and IA-02 to tossups.
[ Parent ]
With all due respect, I live in Northern Virginia and work in D.C., and...
...I've not seen much of Fimian on the air.  I don't see a big presence here.  And I certainly don't see attack ads against Connolly.  This is a pricey TV market so maybe they're focused more heavily on direct mail which I wouldn't receive since I'm in VA-10 not VA-11, but if stuff was on the air, I'd see it.  Or hear it, since I drive to work so I have the a.m. and p.m. commutes to monitor what's on the air.

In fact the only ads I've seen have been to attack Fimian.

I admit my evidence is anecdotal and not "data," but the TV is on in our house every night, cable and broadcast!

And also FWIW, Connolly gives the appearance of an active campaign, not mailing it in at all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
As a resident of VA-11 I totally agree with Toss-up
I see anti-Connolly media everyday. I have seen that one third-party ad with the kids carrying their backpacks almost everyday. Twice yesterday! During the Redskins-Bears game and then later during Sunday Night Football.

It's definately an active campaign on both sides. Connolly has an army of sign placers. I have seen far more Fimian presence where I'm from in Vienna this year than 08.

[ Parent ]
I live in MD-08, in the same media market
Everything I've seen has been pro-Connelly or anti-Fimian.
Of course, there could be some more targeted cable advertising that I haven't seen, as well as direct mail, etc.
[ Parent ]
Redskins game, Sunday Night Football dont seem like microtargeting
My household contains a swing voter so that too might explain why I have seen so much drect mail compared to others.
[ Parent ]
VA-11?
Really?

Fimian is three clicks too far to the right for that district. The Republicans only held for as long as they did because of Tom Davis.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

Changes I disagree with:
MA-06
MA-10
MS-04
NY-20
NY-22
OR-05
TX-27
WA-06

Sorry SSP guys.

TX-27
Even if the poll was a little bogus, you almost have to move a race off "Safe D" when the challenger puts out an internal showing him up 8.  Cook moved it to Likely D as well.

I do think that's an instance where a challenger putting out an internal that was good for him backfired, though.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
I disagree...
I think almost any R challenger could come up with a poll that puts him/her down just 8. They can do this by asking leading questions, always listing their candidate first, calling at opportune times, releasing a fluke result they got on a strange up day, offering English-only scripts (this could tilt results in some districts, even if slightly), etc.

Sure, most polling firms probably want to "get it right," but some might be content simply to make $$$ and help drive a narrative. As for credibility, they could just fold in a month and morph into a different form next cycle, ready once again to rake in the bucks and push an agenda.

[ Parent ]
In this case
the R challenger put out a poll showing the challenger up by 8.  Quite different.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Oops, I pulled a Blumenthal,
wrong preposition.

I don't think it's much different at all. Some of these polling firms have zero integrity. I don't trust them.

[ Parent ]
VA-11 Really???
VA-11 as a tossup makes no sense at all. I would not rate it as a toss-up. I would rate it as lean Democrat. Gerry Connolly has a long career serving in local government and is not a lightning rod for comments. Districts like this are trending toward team blue as it is full of young white collar highly educated workers and many government employees. The economy here has also not been hit to the extent that is widespread in other areas across the country. Advertising here is extremely expensive as it within the Washington DC TV market thus making Fimian's re-introduction to voters that much harder (he ran in 2008). If Connolly loses then we are in for a huge wave.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
Agree
I'd like to know the basis since I don't recall any poll coming out recently.
[ Parent ]
Connolly was never elected overwhelming countywide and........
the portion of Fairfax in the 11th is more republican as the county as a whole. Republicans win it in statewide elections and it has lots of local republican representation. Also 1/3rd of the district is in Prince Williams County which Connolly has not represented before congress. The mood has really soured towards Democrats here in my portion of the 11th. This will be a race within 5%.    
[ Parent ]
Well Connolly won reelection 59-38 in 2007, but thanks otherwise for...
...an explanation of the scene in 11.  I suppose ads can be microtargeted these days, so that I don't see them in my part of the county (I had Cox Cable and switched to Verizon Fios a couple months ago).

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Last Updates
When were the last updates, because MI-1, MI-7, and MI-9 have all, in my opinion, moved from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up", at the very least.  I'd even say that an argument can be made this late in the game that M-9 could be moved into the "Lean Dem" category and maybe even MI-7 if you're talking about momentum.
If you go
to the House race ratings page and click on "Previous ratings" at the bottom, you can see the past history on when we've made changes. MI-07 is currently Tossup and MI-09 is Lean D, and they both have been for many months. (And I'd agree that MI-01 is on the cusp of moving back to Tossup, although we didn't do that this week.)
[ Parent ]
WA-06
Move really warranted on that "poll"?

Besides the points you raise, Cloud's poll has no internals or demographic breakdowns - who are they polling? How many Ds? How many Rs?

WA-07, 34 years old

I just don't get the move in WA6 .
Since when does SSP give credence to the pollster for World Net Daily when RCP and Cook both call this seat "Safe D"
[ Parent ]
MN-8
Well, I hate to say it, but I am starting to think it belongs in Lean Dem.  Oberstar let himself get caught up in the HRC trap as his name was brought up numerous times due to his pro-life positions and Stupak's overall grand-standing on the issue.  It started with Oberstar not getting some pro-life endorsements which made news, the cook the numbers internal from his opponent, and now the Duluth paper endorsed the GOPer.  All it takes is an air of vulnerability for people to take a look at the "other guy" and then it snowballs, especially in a district that is by the numbers just safe enough for a DFLer to win and get incumbent advantage consistently.

But on the other side of that, in any other year, lefty Duluth and union Iron Range can carry this district to a win.  Future house Speaker Sertich sounds like he'll do it in 2012.

And a name like Cravaack in MN-08
has gotta count for at least a point or two.  Senator Klobuchar won by a whopping 20% because she comes off as painfully Minnesotan; I know I can see her bringing a hot dish to the ELCA church potluck.
[ Parent ]
Being Jim Klobuchar's daughter doesn't hurt either
[ Parent ]
MD Gov only "lean"
Two 14 point margins in row not enough to switch it to likely?
It was just one poll
If there are more confirming it then it's likely D
[ Parent ]
One poll?
Over the last 48 hours...

Baltimore Sun: O'Malley +14
Washington Post: O'Malley +14
Ras-freakin'-mussen: O'Malley +10

That meets my definition of Likely D by now.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Yes, you're right
Haven't seen all those before
[ Parent ]
I hadn't heard about the WaPo poll...
Will look for it and check it out now. Thanks.
[ Parent ]
WaPo poll:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

The poll shows O'Malley (D) ahead of Ehrlich (R) 54 to 40 percent among likely voters, despite majorities who rate Maryland's economy as not so good or poor and who say they are dissatisfied or angry with the federal government.

For the Post poll, conducted Oct. 19 to 22, 2,355 randomly selected adults in Maryland were interviewed, including 1,962 registered voters and 1,434 voters likely to cast ballots. Results among likely voters have a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

[ Parent ]
I am so proud of my state
I'll be very proud of Oregon, too, if the folks back home send Kitzhaber back to Salem and turn back the challenge in OR-05 from Scott Bruuuuuuuuuuuuun.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
New Hawaii polls
Didn't see these posted earlier.

Released yesterday

Abercrombie 51
Aiona 43

Djou 48
Hanabusa 45

http://www.staradvertiser.com/...

http://www.staradvertiser.com/...

From reading the article it seems that the 8 point margin in the governors race matches with Democratic internals, but Republican internals say it is a 4 point race

Mahalo to you, too, Mr. President

[ Parent ]
She's great,
and I'm pretty sure the polling is significantly understating her support, as it did in the primary.
[ Parent ]
PS. The Star Advisor endorsed her
just a few days ago:

Republican Charles Djou and Democrat Colleen Hanabusa have been in a fierce competition for followers of Blue Dog fiscal conservative Democrat Ed Case, the third-place finisher in May's special election for the seat vacated by U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie. While Djou has been bending over backwards to portray himself as an independent centrist, voters should recognize that Hanabusa's views are closer to those of the majority of residents in Honolulu's urban 1st Congressional District. She deserves their votes on Nov. 2.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/...

[ Parent ]
Make that Advertiser n/t

[ Parent ]
Star-Advertiser?
When did the Advertiser and Star-Bulletin merge?
[ Parent ]
Here you go:
[ Parent ]
Just doesn't make sense...
Abercrombie by eight, but Rep. Djou by three? What the hell is that?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
The other district, which includes
part of Oahu as well as the other islands (from what I understand), is even more Democratic.
[ Parent ]
Hawaii has a strong pro-incumbent bias
It has never defeated a Congressman or Senator for reelection.
[ Parent ]
Not sure how much weight
one should give to a six-month incumbent. Seems like a special circumstance.

My sense is that this race will be much less close than the polls indicate. I bet Hanabusa wins by 5 or more points.

[ Parent ]
Sure hope so
Hanabusa is very impressive. Rep. Djou is impressive only in that he's managed to fly under the radar despite casting some extremely conservative votes. If the electorate knows the truth of his voting record, which he's been rather shy about running on, they'll send him packing.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
That is the same thing they said about Louisiana
before Cayazoux(sp?) lost.  
[ Parent ]
Will Democrats be able to stay above 205 seats?
That is where they were after 1994.  Staying above that would make regaining the House just a put away in 2012.  
Interesting point
I could see Democrats taking the house right back in 2012 in we don't get totally wiped out with redistricting and some of the tea party anger subsides. I could actually see us at the same time losing control of the Senate.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Harder to do in the Senate...
We don't have many offensive opportunities in 2012 or 2014...

Retaking the house would be hard, too.  We have to prevent inevitable retirements with open seats, make sure we have a speaker that actually WANTS to regain the majority (i.e. not Hoyer), and deal with redistricting... It won't be easy at all... especially not in a post-Citizens United environment.

[ Parent ]
Well that really sucks
All this work to regain the majority in 2006 and now its just washed away forever.  
[ Parent ]
Whatever you do,
please don't take a job trying to raise the spirits of Democrats. (Kidding, sort of.)

The 2010 elections aren't even over yet and you already have us losing the majority in 2012? I hate to be this guy, but that's a horrendously defeatist attitude. Why not spend time trying to figure out a path to victory for Jon Tester, Jim Webb, and Claire McCaskill?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Washed away forever?
That's a bit hyperbolic.

Democrats will have more seats to defend in 2012, some in tough states, but the political environment can change overnight.

Think 2008 to today. Or 2004 to 2006.

Just get a little momentum under the economy, and Dems may once again be in the catbird's seat. Or have the American people come face to face with crazy tea partiers, day in and day out for 2 years, and watch them react against the movement.

We can't really draw any conclusions about 2012 today. It will be what it will be. And hopefully, we'll all be around to experience it.

[ Parent ]
Its the House im worried about
I want Democrats to control the House.
[ Parent ]
You passionately want Democrats to control the House,
but voted for McCain for president? I don't quite get it.
[ Parent ]
I voted for McCain for a few reasons
The first is that I saw Obama as naive and someone childlike when it came to dealing with Republicans and the ways of Washington.  

The second is that I was sure the economy would continue to get far worse and that Democrats would be blamed for it and lose the House.

That's why election night 2008 was a major phyrric victory unlike 2006.  

[ Parent ]
In that case,
you were even ahead of Charlie Cook.
[ Parent ]
I
guess he was basing his vote off the fact that the president's party always loses seats in congress in midterm elections. (FDR and G.W. Bush's first midterms were the exception)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I find it odd
that someone would vote for president based on what's going to happen to the House two years hence.
[ Parent ]
More people here should, really
People should have known we were walking into a deathtrap.  
[ Parent ]
A deathtrap?
So you're doubling down on the hyperbole?

That's nonsense.

The election hasn't happened yet. Senate could be much more fruitful than we had hoped, and House could be close.

Let's save the post mortems.

[ Parent ]
Ill save it
For after the election.
[ Parent ]
We now have someone arguing the Presidency in its own right is worth less than the House?!......
The Presidency is worth more than the House and Senate combined.

Ask any Republican old enough to remember the 80s if they would have preferred President Mondale checked by a Republican House and, for a couple years, a Republican Senate, over the combination they had.

We'd be worse off today under a "President McCain," and making big midterm gains next week wouldn't be much comfort to us.  A lot of us right here on SSP (almost certainly myself included) would be much worse off in our own lives, and that would be much more miserable than suffering through a bad election as Democratic election junkies.

And that's all on top of the many big and little things we've gotten from President Obama that have nothing to do with the economy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
look to the 2002 elections
Bush being President didn't lead to Dem gains that cycle because he took a crisis and acted like a leader about it.  Obama could have had the same, fuck em all, attitude as Bush did, couldve gotten his agenda and made the Dems look like they're fixing the economy.

It wasn't the circumstances, it was what was done with them.

[ Parent ]
I have no idea how you think Obama could have done wha tyou suggest......
The stimulus and so many other proposals were about fixing the economy.  But the economy is rat-fucked beyond the Government's ability to make it any better than it is.  There is nothing that was politically possible that would have made the unemployment rate lower than it is today.

And regarding the rest of "his agenda," he pushed it and got only what was gettable.  That being HCR.  HCR, global warming, immigration reform all are BIG things that push the average voter's buttons and, therefore, can't be accomplished quickly or easily even with supermajorities.

We're screwed next Tuesday because the recession has proven deeper than the Administration hoped and thought it would be.  The probably thought even a year ago unemployment would be below 9% now.  I certainly thought so.

Dubya, in contrast, had 9/11 handed to him on a silver platter.  It wasn't an "agenda," it was a crisis that he didn't manage any better than Gore or Kerry or Obama would.

There's a limit on what one can do with the circumstances.

We likely were always screwed in this election.  This isn't 1934 when people were patient and willing to go along with the President's agenda.  Voters are more demanding today.  That's just how it is, but delivering what's demanded isn't any easier than it was in 1934.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Also, in 1934, the economy was growing
Average income growth in 1934 was something like 16%(!). The New Deal was enormously helpful, but by 1933, the Depression had well and truly bottomed out.

The proper analogy for Obama would be if FDR were elected in the spring of 1930. Even had he launched the New Deal then, the economy may still have been limping two years later.

I also think that it's ridiculous to say we'd be better off if McCain were elected. Oh, sure, Democrats might have supermajorities in Congress after 2010. But if we regained the WH in 2012, we'd likely have an EVEN WORSE situation. As it is the economy will be sluggish, and in alternate reality with a smaller stimulus, no auto bailouts, no HCR, weak-to-nonexistent financial reform, an even-longer-dragged out Iraq War and a probable war with Iran -- for any Democrat taking office in 2013, they'd have an even more poisoned chalice than the one Obama inherited.

[ Parent ]
Its not just that
It was the fact that I knew the economy was basically unfixable and that Democrats would lose the House in 2010 because of that.  And the fact that Obama didnt seem like a good fit as President.  
[ Parent ]
Obama simply winning reelection isnt in "the catbird's seat"
That wont do anything for us if Republicans have a lock on the House and Senate.  
[ Parent ]
I didn't say anything about Obama winning reelection,
even though I think he's got a great shot.

My point was that the political environment, for president AND Congress, can change on a dime.

You are reading too much into the current moment.

[ Parent ]
I never said that...
...nor did I even imply it.  It will be more difficult, but who knows what could happen in the future. After the 2004 elections, it was presumed that the Democratic party was dead as a doornail.  It did more than survive, obviously.  In politics today, nothing is forever.

Here's something that should give you hope.  Chris VanHollen said that had it not been for a mass of retirements after 1994, they could have easily retaken the house in 1996.  So, the key to future success is to mitigate the losses and keep attrition down.

The GOP will overreach, as it has always done, and who knows what will happen in 2012. Tom Jensen at PPP strongly feels that their gains will be significantly reversed in 2012.  That should give you some hope, too.

The pendulum swings one way, and it always swings back.

[ Parent ]
Im trying to think of who would retire from a tough district who hasnt already lost
Maybe some of the North Carolina guys or Collin Petersen.  Other than that, I dont see anyone other than those from liberal districts who might retire.  
[ Parent ]
Scary To Contemplate
Assuming he neither loses this time nor gets redistricted out of existence, Ike Skelton. That one's gone.  
Ditto, John Spratt.
Ditto, Jim Oberstar. Well, not exactly; that one's hold-able but no sure thing.
You mentioned Peterson already.
Frank Pallone's seat isn't a sure hold if he retires.
Given what's happening in West Virginia, Nick Rahall is probably on this list too.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Democrats actually won the House popular vote in '96
Which usually would suggest winning a majority.  
[ Parent ]
Well,
maybe we don't, but it's not as if the Republicans have a great deal of pick up opportunities, either. Looking at the list of races (link below), I'd say that the Democrats will have a natural competition in Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, North Dakota, and Virginia. But out of those states, I'm not sure of any reason why the Nelson, McCaskill, and Brown are in any particular trouble. The others might be, but they are all incumbents and could get a nice boost from a solid presidential ground game. You could make the argument that the incumbents in Washington, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania might all be in trouble, but those aren't red states. They are, at worst, purple.

Now, on to the Republicans, why are the incumbents in Arizona, Tennessee, and Nevada going to cruise to reelection? We should certainly have better than even odds of taking down Scott Brown in Massachusetts, of course, and if Olympia Snowe retires or loses a primary, we should certainly be able to field a candidate in Maine as well.

I guess it all depends on how well the Democrats do this year. If they do really poorly and hold only 50-52 Senate seats, it's far more likely that they will win control of the chamber in 2012. But if the Democrats stay above, say, 55, it is probably a lot harder for them to lose control.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I fear we are turning into a White House only party
A party that remains a permanent minority everywhere but the White House, where its forever govern by veto by the President.  I would actually rather have this the other way and is the only reason why I supported McCain in 2008.  
[ Parent ]
You're too focused on this one election......
Next Tuesday doesn't mean anything for even-year Novembers in the future.  It's just one election.  And it is, without anyone's disagreement, an outlier.

We're not going to have a long-term Democratic House again without a new coalition which is still being built but still doesn't quite have enough numbers.  It's a majority-minority coalition, but it's going to take another generation to flesh it out enough to have a real upper hand.

In the meantime, we just have to woo back the suburbanites 2 years at a time, which I suspect won't be so tough when they see what a Republican Congress spends its time doing.  We may or may not get the House back in 2012, but if the margin is close, inside of 15 seats needed, I bet we DO get it back quickly.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
So, we basically need to keep losses to 53 or less
If we can get many of our candidates who lost close races this year to run again, we would have a good shot at getting back those 15 seats.  I dont see what further Republicans could do to us in redistricting and I dont see many Democrats who would retire from tough districts, as many of them will probably lose this year.  
[ Parent ]
Republicans did hold a long term majority from 1994-2006
Had there not been something special about that coalition, Democrats would have won back the House easily in 1996.  
[ Parent ]
Their run may have been extended by 9-11, though
Remember that post-2000, the Republicans majority was exceptionally narrow (under 10). Democrats needed only a FIVE seat pickup to take control. However, when the election occurred, 9-11 had happened just a year before and we were in a clear runup to the Iraq War. This was the height of the George W. Bush-cult (which conservatives are now writing out of their history), and unusually for a midterm election, there was a big pro-GOP enthusiasm gap.

Had 9-11 not occurred, however, the fundamentals of the election would have been determined by the weak economy, accounting scandals like Enron, and Democratic anger over the 2000 election.

Now, to be fair, the post-2000 redistricting favored Republicans and the pre-Pelosi/Rahm/Van Hollen Democratic leadership wasn't as organized or strategic (having fallen short in both 1996 and 2000 despite numbers that could have pointed towards retaking the House).

But it's quite possible the GOP could have lost Congress in '02 itself had it not been for 9-11.  

[ Parent ]
That's just silly
There are rhythms in politics - reactions and counter-reactions. That's the way it's always been. The political environment can change quickly, and make heroes humble and the out-of-favor valiant once again - and then turn it all around just a couple years down the road.
[ Parent ]
This derail is like deja vu
Arguing with UpstateDem at Daily Kos 18 months or so ago.
[ Parent ]
Yes...
It's probably not fair, but it definitely makes me skeptical when a first post from a new member expresses major worry and concern.

PS. Irony is, I'm pretty much a new member myself! :)

[ Parent ]
Some people say the same things
Some who say things are the same people. But whatever at minimum Justices Sotomayor and Kagen make the Obama presidency worthwhile.
[ Parent ]
And healthcare, I guess
Those three things.  
[ Parent ]
Would sweeten the deal if Kennedy retired under Obama
or better yet, Thomas or Scalia :/
[ Parent ]
Now, was that user right?
Many people stupidly laughed off the idea that Democrats could lose the House as late as this Spring.  
[ Parent ]
Word of advice
You won't last long here calling people stupid.
[ Parent ]
Oh, im not calling anyone stupid
Im just saying that it was dumb to laugh off the idea that we could lose the House.  
[ Parent ]
Can you at least wait a week before actually saying you told us so?

[ Parent ]
No problem n/t

[ Parent ]
User Dave6750
You've been pretty effective in riling people up in your 4 hours here on this site.

Without President Obama, Sotamayor and Kagen would not be on the Supreme Court.

President Obama has already accomplished a lot more. But those two appointments are reason enough for me -- especially given the alternatives.

[ Parent ]
That's not my intent
I would also add that healthcare is an Obama accomplishment.  I mentioned that in another comment.  
[ Parent ]
This is a fairly small close knit community
Imagine what happens in a small town when someone new comes in and makes waves.
[ Parent ]
UpstateDoom!

[ Parent ]
This brought up something in my mind...
Has there ever been a time in American history when, after each house is controlled by a different party, the election causes both to switch? I honestly can't remember such an instance, but really, given the other strange elections that have gone on the U.S., there's really no reason why it couldn't happen! (Maybe has it happened in one of the state legislatures at some time?)

If that happens sometime in the future, I just can't imagine how the news media would spin it. Really, I have no clue what kind of narrative would work for that!

[ Parent ]
tea-bagger anger wont subside
Not when they get to finally run against the big scary black man himself
[ Parent ]
Actually, they had less than that
because of Deal and Tauzin switched parties after the election.  So, they're low point was 203, I believe.
[ Parent ]
Actually, no, we were all the way down to 199, counting Bernie Sanders......
The GOP topped out at 236 seats, I believe, at one point in that 1995-97 period.  There were more than "a couple" party-switchers, we lost 5 or so Southern conservaDems to the GOP.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Is that so?
I don't remember them dipping below 200, but maybe they did.
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia, as always, knows everything
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1...

Started at 230-204, ended up 234-198. Several Dixiecrats switched parties (Nathan Deal, Greg Laughlin, Billy Tauzin, Mike Parker and Jimmy Hayes), and Norm Mineta's seat flipped to Tom Campbell in a special election.

[ Parent ]
Mike Parker Too
In MS-03.
[ Parent ]
News media gets something wrong
I noticed this when I was doing my comprehensive run-down of every single district and how I think they are going to go. But has anyone else noticed that the news media often gets wrong the net gain number that Republicans are going to need in order to take over the House?

The number the media often gives is 39. Take as examples these headlines.

Poll shows GOP likely to surpass the 39 seats it needs to claim House control

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/n...

39 Seats Away: Republicans Hungry to Take Back the House

http://www.theatlanticwire.com...

Hunting For 'Mr. 39' In House, GOP Eyes Ky. Races

http://content.usatoday.net/di...

The Republicans need a net gain of 39 to take over the House only if you consider the current 433-member House. Remember, there are two vacancies. A majority of 433 would be 217, and 178 (the current number of Republicans in the House) + 39 = 217.

After the election, however, there are going to be 435 members in the House. And 218 is a majority of 435.

The only way you can come up with a specific number about what the net gain needs to be for the Republicans is if you allocate those two vacancies that currently exist in the House. I confidently assume those 2 vacancies are going to be Republican after the election, so I automatically consider them as such.

Any baseline I work off of in determining the upcoming election assumes Republicans have 180 seats in the House right now. And the net gain that Republicans will need with 180 seats is 38. 180+38=218.

Quibble
You're really going to let what you believe is a single-seat difference bother you like that?  Really?
[ Parent ]
When it's wrong...
...and the House may be split almost evenly (thus, it making a difference), yes.
[ Parent ]
NY-29
Since it was last represented by Eric Massa, it's technically a Democratic open seat (the almost certain Republican win there notwithstanding).

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
[ Parent ]
By my metric...
... I see a Republican net gain of 37. It would be 180+37=217.

So, the next House would be 218 Democrats, 217 Republicans.

You think that would be interesting?

[ Parent ]
a couple of Democrats would switch
to give the majority to the GOP if that happened.
[ Parent ]
Why do you think that?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
They'd be heavily courted
and there are at least a few that would probably lose reelection if they didn't switch.  The likes of Gene Taylor and Bobby Bright being in the coalition of remaining Dems in the House doesn't invoke much confidence in Pelosi's ability to remain as Speaker, and nothing short of someone like Ike Skelton or another Centrist/Conservadem in power would likely satiate the Blue Dogs, who will be massacred in this cycle but will nevertheless be the deciding votes for power.

Honestly, if that were the case, I'd much rather lose the House than see 4-8 years of a Blue Dog Leader.  We may or may not win it back in 2012 (I'm leaning towards yes for the same reasons kevin is), but a Blue Dog Speaker only cements this fundamental shift to Centrist politics in Congress that ends up moving the whole spectrum right.  

[ Parent ]
how can you do that?
How can you consider two seats that are not currently Republican as non-pickups if they win them?  That would be like saying I'm 100% confident we are going to win TN-06 so that doesn't count towards the 39.  You can't assume 180 seats when they only have 178 in this current Congress right now.
[ Parent ]
Rand Paul...
   Just said in the debate that Jim Bunning was his favorite Kentucky politician, specifically citing his opposition to unemployment benefits as a bold move.

  Rich kids should never be allowed near Ayn Rand books.  

  I think this gets made into an attack ad that runs starting Wednesday.

24, Male, GA-05

Sorry.
   Wrong thread.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I would like to see the video of that.
It's my understanding that Bunning is pretty unlikable even in Kentucky. I wonder if they'll be any backlash against it.
[ Parent ]
Is he high again?
Unemployment in Kentucky is 10.1%. Back in July, Sen. Bunning rated under 44% approval in a poll.

Atty. Gen. Conway better rip him a new one for that hideous bullcrap.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Pretty Coincidental
 But at my school, some students did a mock debate between philosophers, including Ayn Rand. I have to write a paper on it tonight.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Hahahah
Ahaha.. ahh... I'm sorry, it's just... heh... hah!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Couldn't
have said it better Bob.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
A few quibbles
I don't see VA-11 being a tossup race. Keith Fimian could probably win in Nye or Perriello's district, but he's way too conservative to win in NoVa.

Also I wasn't aware the situation had worsened for Lincoln Davis in TN-04.  

New Hampshire Senate......
Why has this race been so stealth?  Is there any possibility of an under-the-radar surge by Hodes?  The last I saw it was still a single-digit race.
Highly unlikely
For Hodes to win, he'll need to prevail among Independents. Which isn't happening in New Hampshire in a bad year for Democrats.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
In
a better year and perhaps if the GOP didn't have gazillions of dollars to bury our candidates in Hodes could pull this off...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Ayotte has cruised since the primary
In short, wrong year and wrong opponent for Hodes. He's a strong candidate who would have won this race in 2006 or 2008, and would have been even odds to defeat Lamontagne, who is a poor fit for NH. But Ayotte was a tough draw--the scandal allegations never really stuck and she has come off as a likable person and a reasonable Republican. She has consolidated the independent vote and is probably headed for a 55-45 victory.

If there's a silver lining for Hodes, Ayotte has not run a particularly vicious campaign and his favorables should be high enough after the election that he'll be able to make a comeback. I could see him running strongly for governor in 2012 (rumor has it Lynch will decide 4 terms is enough) or for his NH-02 seat again if Bass wins this year.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Hode ran the same vs. Ayotte or Lamontagne
independents turned against the Democrats and that is making the difference.  
[ Parent ]
Lamontagne wouldn't have held up as well
That was a low point for Ayotte, as her opponents had roughed her up pretty good during the primary and voters were used to seeing negative ads about her on TV. Lamontagne was an unknown commodity at that time, and my guess is that the more swing voters got to know him, the better they would have liked Hodes.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Agree w/you on all points re NH-Sen. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Just out...
Muhlenberg Tracker

Toomey: 48%(+1)
Sestak: 40%(-2)

Well that was fun while it lasted
Either Toomey won the debate or NRSC engagement is making the difference.
[ Parent ]
That Much Backtrack Seems Like a Bad Poll Sample.....
...but it definitely looks like the Sestak surge ran its course.  Seemed too good to be true.  But on the other hand,  what on Earth does Pennsylvania see in country club Republican Toomey that they like?
[ Parent ]
Apparently . . .
a lot more than they saw in a social conservative Republican like Santorum.  There are a fair number of economically conservative, socially moderate voters in the densely populated SE suburbs.  In recent cycles they abandoned the GOP but in 2010 they may be returning to their roots.  I'm guessing that these folks are helping to prop up Toomey.  
[ Parent ]
Blegh
Hopefully it's just a bad sample -- but honestly it looks a little like last week's sample was distorted towards Sestak. The trend has been towards Toomey for a few days now.

Well, there's still a week. And it is a mostly Democratic state. So maybe. But not encouraging.  

[ Parent ]
We haven't got the crosstabs...
...for the Muhlenberg Poll that was just released, but the results that were just reported kind of resemble yesterday's. When comparing yesterday's poll to the poll from a day earlier, I noticed something interesting.

The leaners in Q13 did a reverse. All the polls up to that point had, with each successive day, more and more leaners willing to admit to leaning toward a certain candidate. There was 84% of hard core "not sure" people in Oct. 20's poll, 81% in Oct. 21's poll, 79%, 74%, 73%. Finally, we got to yesterday's poll, and the not sures in Q13 jumped back up to 77%.

A coincidence that that was also the day that Toomey jumped into a 5-point lead? Maybe. I'll wait for the crosstabs for today's poll to see if the not sures in Q13 went up or down.

[ Parent ]
It was strange
First Sestak mysteriously coming up for no apparent reason, then him going back down for no apparent reason.  You're left to guess that maybe he went up due to 'Democrats coming home', or maybe that he went down because 'Undecideds broke for Toomey', but aside from guessing there's no obvious reason for any of it, its just strange.  If it can do all that within just a few days, well hey, there's still another week before the election, who knows how many more changes we'll have :) .  
SSP Updates 20 Race Ratings | 175 comments

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