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Senate Cattle Call (October 2010)

by: James L.

Sat Oct 23, 2010 at 4:12 PM EDT


As October winds down, it's time that we put up another Senate cattle call. By now, you should all be familiar with the rules: Rank the Senate seats that are up this year in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like.

It might also be helpful to indicate the cutoff point where you think the losses end and the retentions begin. But that's up to you!
James L. :: Senate Cattle Call (October 2010)
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Senate Cattle Call (October 2010) | 85 comments
Bad guesses
ND (duh)
AR
IN
WI
CO
PA
WV
IL
KY
WA
CA
AK
NH
CT
MO
NC
FL
DE
LA
NY (KG)
OH
HI
OR
GA
AZ
VT
IA
NY (CS)
OK
KS
UT
AL
ID
SC
SD

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
I also have a guess
ND
AR
IN
WI
CO
WV
PA  
IL
CA
WA
KY  
AK
NH
CT
MO

I think WV is the last flip. 53 seats

[ Parent ]
Gut-based guesses
certain change
ND
AR
IN
likely change
PA
WI
WV
possible change
CO
IL
NV
KY
WA
AK
CA
MO
Miracle change
NH
NC
FL
LA
CT

rest are safe

Short list
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Wisconsin
5. West Virginia
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
8. Nevada
9. Illinois
10. Washington
11. California

To be honest, I'm not quite sure what the cutoff point will be. Best-case scenario for the Dems would be only losing the first four, but right now, I'm thinking the first eight will fall, and Illinois is teetering on the edge, dependent on Chicago turnout. No Republican seat will flip; Kentucky and New Hampshire are the only ones that have any chance of being upsets at this point, with Alaska looking more like a Murkowski/Miller dogfight than anything.

I agree with the first three and your entire list in order of probability
I am more optimistic in that I feel for the Democrats that after ND, AR, IN, the Senate losses stop with Feingold, Bennet and Reid pulling out narrow wins and Sestak and the other endangered Democratic seats all winning. I also feel that one of KY, AK or NH will flip to the blue team making for a net loss of just two Senate seats.
[ Parent ]
I have also not written off our prospects in
MO and LA
[ Parent ]
I predict a 15-point loss for Melancon
I'd say at least 10 points, but I'll go out on a limb. I don't think Vitter should be safe, but I think he is.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
First try at one of these...
-------------------------------- 8 Flips: 3 Definite, 2 Probable, 3 Barely
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Colorado
West Virginia
California (Going out on a limb here)
-------------------------------- Retention Below This Line
Nevada
Washington
Illinois (This is so low down because of the large Dem proportion of undecideds)
Kentucky
Louisiana
New Hampshire
Florida
Alaska (I'll consider Murkowski a GOP win for the purposes of this)
Missouri
North Carolina
Arizona
Connecticut
Ohio
Georgia
Maryland
New York, Gillibrand
Iowa
Oregon
Delaware
Kansas
South Carolina
Alabama
Idaho
Oklahoma
Vermont
Utah
New York, Schumer
Hawaii
South Dakota

20, GOP, NH-02
I suppose mine are slightly more optimistic
There's still a good hope IMO that Dems continue to close out, nullify most of the so-called 'enthusiasm gap', and end up with something similar to a 1982 or 1978 election.

Republican Pickups (+3)
ND
AR
IN
'Toss-up' Tilt Republican
KY
WI
AK (although, the Murkowski/Miller pair probably have an 85%+ shot at winning)
MO
'Toss-up' Tilt Democrat
PA
CO
IL
NV
WV
Solid Holds:
NH
NC
FL
LA
CT
DE
CA
WA

So, most likely a +4 seat gain to the GOP. Most of the 'Tilt Democrat' races favors us in the sense that they're all states with 'bad' opponents (Kirk being the 'best' of 'em), where an enthusiasm gap will probably shrink towards election day, and where the general dynamics of the races and states favor us. WI would probably fall under this category, but Feingold has a bigger hill to climb, and there's a good shot that KY will flip to us too. Personally, I think Manchin will win by double digits.

Here we go
Forget It
1 North Dakota (Dorgan)
2 Blanche Lincoln (AR)
3 Indiana (Bayh) (Can someone please explain what on earth happened here?)

Tossups
4 Russ Feingold (WI)
5 Michael Bennet (CO)
6 Illinois (Burris)
7 Kentucky (Bunning) (That article in the Atlantic posted in the daily digest the other day is what makes me think Conway may well eck out a win here. It'll be close though.)
8 Pennsylvania (Specter) (I change my mind on whether we hold this seat almost daily for the last week.)
---Line of Control)
9 Harry Reid (NV) (Ditto, but for the last month.)
10 West Virginia (Goodwin)

Lean Incumbent
11 Patty Murray (WA)
12 Barbara Boxer (CA)
13 Alaska (Murkowski) (Counting Murk and Miller as Repubs)
14 Connecticut (Dodd)

Upset of the Year
15 Missouri (Bond)
16 New Hampshire (Gregg)
17 Florida (LeMieux) (Counting Crist and Meek as Democrats)
18 David Vitter (LA)
19 Richard Burr (NC)
20 Ohio (Voinovich)

Upset of the Decade
21 Kirstin Gillibrand (NY)
22 Delaware (Kaufman)
23 Johnny Isakson (GA)
24 John McCain (AZ)
25 Ron Wyden (OR)
26 Chuck Grassley (IA)

Forget It
27 Kansas (Brownback)
28 Chuck Schumer (NY)
29 Barbara Mikulski (MD)
30 Tom Coburn (OK)
31 Utah (Bennett)
32 Patrick Leahy (VT)
33 Richard Shelby (AL)
34 Mike Crapo (ID)
35 Jim DeMint (SC)
36 John Thune (SD)

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

To answer your question on Indiana.
Evan Bayh is an asshole.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Well, that much is obvious
But I thought that the fact Bayh retired at the last minute was actually supposed to help us out on some levels, because it meant that Republicans got stuck with ok-but-likely-not-their-first-choice Coats while Democrats could put up their strongest candidate in the state. Did Ellsworth's campaign just never really take off?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
well i'm not the right guy for Indiana but
I don't think Bayh and Ellsworth cordinated at all I think he got in believing he could beat Coats or whatever other lackluster republican was running but underestamated the normal republican tilt of the state thats probably more tilted this year.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
My kick at the can...
certain change
ND-Hoeven
AR-Boozman
IN-Coats

likely change
WI-Johnson

possible change
PA-Toomey
CO-Buck
IL-Kirk
NV-Angle
WV-Raese

Probably not change
WA-Murray
CA-Boxer
KY-Paul
CT-Blumenthal

Miracle change
AK-Murkowski/Miller
MO-Blunt
NH-Ayotte
NC-Burr
FL-Rubio
LA-Vitter

Here goes
Gone:
ND (Dorgan) - Hoeven
AR (Lincoln) - Boozman
IN (Bayh) - Coats

Tossups Lost:
CO (Bennet) - Buck
IL (Burris) - Kirk
WI (Feingold) - Johnson

Retentions Start:
NV (Reid) - Angle
PA (Specter) - Toomey
WV (Goodwin) - Raese
CA (Boxer) - Fiorina
WA (Murray) - Rossi
KY (Bunning) - Conway
CT (Dodd) - McMahon
MO (Bond) - Carnahan
AK (Murkowski) - McAdams
NH (Gregg) - Hodes
FL (LeMieux) - Crist
NC (Burr) - Marshall
LA (Vitter) - Melancon
DE (Kaufman) - O'Donnell (hahahaha)
OH (Voinovich) - Fisher
GA (Isakson) - Thurmond

You have PA as retention,
meaning Republicans hold the seat they won six years ago (before Specter's switch)?
[ Parent ]
Oh wait...
You list Republican names for lots of the seats you expect them to lose. I thought by showing "Toomey," that meant you expected Toomey to win.
[ Parent ]
My top 20
Plus predictions on what I think the outcome would be if the election was held TODAY. Democrats on the left, GOP on the right.

1) North Dakota 29-71
2) Arkansas 43-57
3) Indiana 45-55
4) Wisconsin 47-63
5) Pennsylvania 49-51
6) Colorado 49-51
7) Nevada 48(Reid)-47(Angle)-4(NOTB)-1 (Ashjian)
8) Illinois 49-48-3 (Jones)
9) West Virginia 52-48
10) Kentucky 48-52
11) Washington 52.5-47.5
12) California 53.5-46.5
13) Alaska 36(Murk)-34(Miller)-30(McAdams)
14) Missouri 54-46
15) Connecticut 55-45
16) Louisiana 54-46
17) New Hampshire 53-47
18) North Carolina 56-44
19) Florida 42(Rubio)-32(Crist)-26(Meek)
20) Ohio 59-41

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

My list...
1. North Dakota (open D)
2. Arkansas (Lincoln D)
3. Indiana (open D)
4. Wisconsin (Feingold D)
5. West Virginia (open D)
6. Colorado (Bennet D)
7. Illinois (open D)
8. Pennsylvania (open D)
9. Nevada (Reid D)
10. Kentucky (open R)
11. California (Boxer D)
12. Washington (Murray D)
13. Alaska (Murkowski R)
14. Connecticut (open D)
15. Missouri (open R)
16. New Hampshire (open R)
17. North Carolina (Burr R)
18. Louisiana (Vitter R)
19. New York (Gillibrand D)
20. Iowa (Grassley R)
21. Georgia (Isakson R)
22. Hawaii (Inouye D)
23. Delaware (open D)
24. Florida (open R)
25. Ohio (open R)
26. Oregon (Wyden D)
27. Arizona (McCain R)
28. Kansas (open R)
29. Alabama (Shelby R)
30. New York (Schumer D)
31. Maryland (Mikulski D)
32. Vermont (Leahy D)
33. Utah (open R)
34. Idaho (Crapo R)
35. Oklahoma (Coburn R)
36. South Carolina (DeMint R)
37. South Dakota (Thune R)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Dammit
Posted as a reply accidentally yet again. Sorry about that.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Voter Fraud in Wisconsin?
I guess your typo does not change the result though.  
[ Parent ]
Right.
1. ND     Certain loss. At least Hoeven's a moderate.
2. AR     Near-certain loss.
3. IN     Closer than CW expectation, but still GOP win.
4. WI     We're getting our asses kicked in WI this year.  
5. IL     Green voters in IL-Gov might still sink us here.
6. CO     Don't know what to do with this one. Even tossup.
7. WV     RETENTION POINT. Slight Manchin edge here.
8. NV     Reid sucks, but his machine doesn't.
9. PA     Sestak will bring Dems home.
10. KY    Repeat of 2004: Paul by less than 10,000 votes.
11. CA    Dem turnout here looks good.  
12. MO    Could be a sleeper, but still an R edge.    
13. NC    Biggest wasted Dem opportunity of the cycle.
14. NH    Ayotte is damaged, but Hodes can't win NH-01.
15. LA    Melancon will win the coast & NO but still lose.  
16. WA    Great Dem turnout here. Rossi can't win WA.
17. IA    Some last minute gains by Conlin, but not enough.
18. FL    Yeah, I'm pretty cynical. Meek/Crist double fail.
19. OH    Dismal campaign by Fisher in a bad state for us.  
20. GA    If Martin couldn't beat Chambliss in 2008....
21. NY-B  Gillibrand looking good for an appointee.
22. OR    Wyden wouldn't lose even in 1994.
23. AZ    Glassman's pretty much imploded by now.

Missing: Alaska. No clue what to do with this crazy race.  

Not a chance in hell/safer than safe:

AL, HI, ID, KS, MD, NY-A, OK, SC, SD, UT, VT  

Moderate
I doubt Hoeven will actually vote like a moderate in the Senate. Do you expect him to be to the left of the senators from Maine, or at least somewhere between them and Brown of Massachusetts? Because if not, you're talking about someone who will filibuster almost everything.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I think he'd be a crossover conservative
That is, someone who is a generally conservative Republican but is willing to vote with the Democrats on occasion when he believes that their policy is worthwhile. Think Lindsey Graham or Lamar Alexander: neither is a moderate, but both have worked with Democrats on a few occasions this cycle.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Hoeven
Of all the Republican non-incumbents running this year, he's the only one who didn't rule out a tax increase. I could see him voting for a deficit reduction bill. He also said on health care that he would like to modify the bill and maybe "repeal some of the bad parts". I think he'll be similar to Voinovich: to the right of Snowe, Collins, and Brown but to the left of the other Republicans.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
addendum
He isn't going to be teabagged either if he votes against his own party on occasion. His approval is off the charts, and ND may be the only state outside the northeast where the Republican party is dominated by moderates.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Voinovich helped only at the margins
and at the very end of his term, before his retirement. So for all his previous history of moderation, he filibustered almost everything.

I don't think we should count on any Republicans cooperating with the president or Democratic Leadership on anything. A few may choose to do so occasionally, but it will definitely be the exception, not the rule.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
My guess
Likely to switch:
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin
Colorado
Pennsylvania

Possible (but I think less than likely):
Illinois
Nevada
West Virginia
Washington
California
Alaska
Kentucky

Unlikely to switch:
Louisiana
New Hampshire
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri
Connecticut
Delaware
Ohio
Georgia
New York, Gillibrand
Maryland
Oregon
Iowa
Arizona
New York, Schumer
South Carolina
Hawaii
Alabama
Vermont
Kansas
Utah
Idaho
Oklahoma
South Dakota

So I predict a GOP gain of 6 senators  

I'll Give it a Go...
1) ND
2) AR
3) IN
4) WI
-----------
5) PA
6) WV
7) KY
8) IL
9) AK
10)CO
11)NV
12)WA
13)CA
14)CT
15)NC
16)NH
17)MO
18)FL
19)OH
20)DE

Net loss 4 seats for D's

My prediction as of today
1. North Dakota (R +40)
2. Arkansas (R+19)
3. Indiana (R +17)
4. Wisconsin (R +6)
5. Nevada (R +3)
6. Colorado (R+2.5)
7. Illinois (R+2)
8. Pennsylvania(R+.5)
------turnovers stop
9. West Virginia (D+.5)
10. California (D+2)
11. Washington (D+4)
12. Kentucky (R+5)
13. Missouri (R+8)
14. New Hampshire (R+10)
15. Connecticut (D+12)
16. Lousiana (R +12)
17. North Carolina (R+13)
18. Hawaii (D+15)
19. Ohio (R+18)

Others will be more than 20 points...Alaska will go down to the wire between Miller and Murkowski with McAdams back about 10.  In Florida, Rubio will beat Crist by 10 and Meek by 17.

Here goes
Safe Takeover (>95%)
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana

Likely Takeover (80-95%)
NONE

Lean Takeover (60-80%)
4. Wisconsin

Tossup, Edge Takeover (50-60%)
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado

Tossup, Edge Retention (40-50%)
7. West Virginia
8. Nevada
9. Illinois

Lean Retention (20-40%)
10. Kentucky
11. Washington
12. California

Likely Retention (5-20%)
13. New Hampshire
14. Connecticut
15. Alaska (Miller or Murkowski)
16. Missouri
17. North Carolina
18. Louisiana
19. Ohio

Safe Retention (<5%)
AL, AZ, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, KS, MD, NY, NY', OK, OR, SC, SD, UT, VT (no particular order)

PA and CO
should be likely retention
[ Parent ]
Uh, no they shouldn't...
You think Sestak and Bennet have better than an 80% chance of winning?  I don't see any rational basis for that conclusion.
[ Parent ]
I like Centauri's model of formatting...
... so this is how I would fill in his categories. I largely agree with him on the listing too, actually; I'm a tad more optimistic, but the differences are slight:

Safe Takeover
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana

Likely Takeover
-

Lean Takeover
4. Wisconsin

Tossup, Edge Takeover
5. Colorado
6. Pennsylvania (ie, Toomey wins)

Tossup, Edge Retention
7. Nevada
8. West Virginia

Lean Retention
9. Illinois  
10. Kentucky
11. California
12. Washington

Likely Retention
13. Alaska (Miller or Murkowski)
14. New Hampshire
15. Connecticut
16. Missouri
17. Florida

Safe Retention
--The rest

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
creo que puede
so long, farewell, auf weidersein, goodbye
1: ND (Sen. Hoeven)
2: AR (Sen. Boozman)
3: IN (Sen. Coats... again)

incumbent win (by the slimmest margin)
1: NV (either way, he wont be maj leader)
2: CO (buck just dosent know when to stop talking)
3: AK (mcadams has run a great campaign, but just wont happen this yr)
4: WI (hell pull it out)
5: IL (i think IL is more comfortable w money laundring then lying bout the military)
6: PA (i thought this was gone, but i really think hes gonna pull it off)

incumbent hold (w in 5)
1: WA (always a bridesmaid, mr rossi)
2: KY (i like conway, but i honestly think it was a little bit of a low blow)
3: MO (this one hurts)
4: NH (could the entire nh delegation be female??)
5: FL (my bet is a romney/rubio ticket in 2012)
6: WV (hey may have gotten his money the old fashion way, but not a senate seat)

clear incumbent wins
1: NC (seems the cursed seat is over)
2: LA (i guess true blood really is an accurate representation of the sexual practices in LA)
3: OH (i wanted brunner from the begining)
4: CT (this race if over hyped)
5: DE (thought i may get turned into newt...)

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma

damn it...
i forgot boxer... she'll win (round 5%-ish)

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
Majority Leader
If the Democrats are still in the majority, all the evidence I know of seems to make clear that Reid will be Majority Leader. If you know of any evidence to the contrary, I doubt it's so off-topic that a mention of it or a link would be considered intolerable.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
well
quantifiable, convictiable evidence, no... but itll be like a r. byrd in the 80s to me.  won reelection, but knows hes not liked and the dems will realize he wont get along w the house. esp a posiable speaker boehner.  my bet is a schumer/durbin leadership.  should nancy keep the house, my bet is hoyer is done.  maybe berccera or larson or maj leader

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
For now...
FYI, next week, I'll be posting full, final projections, with voter models and calculations. So, if you're surprised by stuff on this list, wait a few days and it'll all be explained...

1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Wisconsin
5. Nevada
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
(FLIP)
--------------
8. California
9. Kentucky
10. West Virginia
11. Washington
12. Illinois
13. Louisiana
14. North Carolina
15. Connecticut
16. Alaska
17. Missouri
18. Florida
19. New Hampshire
20. Oregon
21. New York (B)
22. Delaware
23. Ohio
24. Arizona
25. Iowa
26. New York (A)
27. Georgia
28. Maryland
29. Oklahoma
30. Utah
31. Vermont
32. South Carolina
33. Alabama
34. Kansas
35. Idaho
36. South Dakota
(NO FLIP)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

my 2 cents worth
5,6, and 7 won't change hands
[ Parent ]
Agreed...
See my take below. And btw, Ralston tweeted earlier today that Reid's internals have shown him consistently up 6% this week. I don't know if early voting so far confirms exactly that, but it's within the realm of the possible... I definitely feel Dems have the upper hand at this point with fairly good (not great, but much better than first feared) early vote results and MAJOR plans for final GOTV push.

It could be super close, but I'm starting to get the sense we could end up with anything from a 2% squeaker Reid win to a more comfy 6% Reid win, all depending on how well the Nevada Dems close in this last week of early voting and the final E-Day voting.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
You could be right
My thinking on this race has been predicated on the belief that a) Jon Ashjian will completely fizzle come election night - 3-4% max (I'm leaning toward 1-2% myself) - and b) that Angle will pick up a majority of undecideds. Whoever prevails will win with 45-47%, and "none" will nab 8-10%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Remember my first projection?
I plugged in the numbers and ended up with Reid at 47% and Angle at 42%. I can still see that if Dem turnout picks up and a good chunk of Indies vote "NOTA", Ashjian, or someone else.

I'm thinking if turnout stays around where it's been for the last few days, PPP & Suffolk may end up being right with Reid winning by about 2-3%, mainly due to slightly more Dems voting, Indies only barely breaking for Angle, and Reid winning many more R's than Angle winning D's.

But if turnout picks up for D's in this final week of early voting and D's bring this baby home on the 2nd, it may end up looking more like a 48-43 or even 48-42 or 49-43 Reid win. It seems like more Indies are going one way or another, and there's a good chunk of "lazy Dems" that will be voting for Reid but just need to be pushed more to actually get it over with.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Illinois
Really you have it that low? You think Kentucky will flip before Illinois?

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
I really do
My latest projections had Conway/Paul tied and Giannoulias up 7. Granted, I'll be calculating, one last time, everything all over again next week, but my hunch is these two won't change much.

Keep in mind, Democrats are likely to compose of about half the Illinois electorate this year. That's one of the highest Dem compositions of any state in the country, and it leaves Kirk needing at least 15-17% of the Dem vote (plus a double-digit margin with Indies) to prevail. It wouldn't surprise me if Kirk isn't even breaking 10% with Democrats.

As for Kentucky, I'm 90% certain I'll ultimately be predicting Paul, but that too is a state where Dems will make up about half the electorate - granted, Paul will siphon-off a hefty number of them, in a state where 20% of Democrats are self-described conservative and only 35% are self-described liberal. Still, I think Conway is poised to win enough Dems to get into the mid-to-high '40s. From there, I think he needs to hold Paul to single-digits with Indies and also win about 10% of Republicans. That's where it gets a little shaky.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Senate results official
Certain to flip:
ND
AR
IN

Possibly to flip:
WI
CO
KY

I say unlikely to flip:
WV
PA
NV
WA
IL

Won't flip:
NC
MO
CA
FL
AK: one of the Repugs. will win
OH

All others off the radar screen completely

Worst case for (D)= minus 5

Best case for (D)= minus 2


My take
1. North Dakota
2. Indiana
3. Arkansas
4. Wisconsin
5. Illinois
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
-----------------
8. West Virginia
9. Nevada
10. California
11. Kentucky
12. Washington
13. Alaska
14. Missouri
15. New Hampshire
16. Florida
17. Louisiana
18. North Carolina
19. Connecticut
20. Ohio
21-35. Order them how you want they aren't changing.

Republicans pick up 7-8 seats, picking up 2-3 of Pennsylvania, Colorado, Weste Virgina and Nevada.

Here Goes.....
ND
AR
IN
WV
WI
CO
PA
IL
CA
AK
KY
WA
NH
MO
CT
NC
LA
NY (Gillibrand)
DE
HI
OH
FL
OR
IA
GA
AZ
VT
NY (Schumer)
OK
KS
UT
AL
ID
SC
SD
Nevada?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Eeesh. I Knew I'd Miss One
Put NV between IL and CA.
[ Parent ]
Also close to my list...
Except I'm a little more hopeful about KY flipping our way (I think Conway's late surge may be for real), and I'm wondering if Miller's crazy in AK may even be too much for them (remember, they like government a whole lot when it means better living for them).

Otherwise, pretty darn close to mine. I guess I'm not going out on a limb. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Senate cattle call
Certain change (D) seats:
ND
IN
AR
Possible change (D) seats:
WI
CO
Unlikely change (D) seats:
IL
PA
NV
CA
WA
WV

All other (D) seats need not be mentioned as they are SAFE

Possible change (R) seats:
KY
Unlikey change (R) seats but you never know:
MO
NC
LA
NH

All other (R) seats need not be mentioned as they are SAFE

My Turn
Predicted percent vote total excluding 3rd party candidates

Flippers:

1. North Dakota: 74-26 R
2. Arkansas: 58-42 R
3. Indiana: 60-40 R
4. Wisconsin: 56-44 R
5. Colorado: 52- 48 R
6. Illinois: 51-49 R

Keepers:
7. Nevada: 49-47 D (Including NOTB)
8. Pennsylvania: 50.1-49.9 D
9. Washington: 52- 48 D
10. West Virginia: 54-46 D
11. Kentucky: 52-48 R
12. California: 54- 46 D
13. Alaska: Murkowski: 38 Miller: 35 McAdams: 27
14. Missouri: 53-47 R
15. New Hampshire: 57-43 R
16. Connecticut: 57-43 D
17. Florida: Rubio: 45 Crist: 34 Meek: 26
18. North Carolina: 58-42 R
19. Louisiana: 60- 40 R
20. Ohio: 61-39 R

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

Johnson By 12 in WI.....
Yikes.  If I said that, I'd be burned at the stake!
[ Parent ]
sen
Near-locks:

1. ND
2. AR
3. IN

If I had to bet, I would bet on these flipping:

4. WI
5. CO
6. PA

If I had to bet, I would bet on these not flipping:

7. IL
8. WV
9. KY
10. AK if you count Murkowski as a Republican

Most of these are competitive and some will be close but I would be surprised if any of them flip:

11. NV
12. WA
13. CA
14. MO
15. FL
16. CT
17. NH
18. LA
19. NC
20. OH

Below this point it doesn't matter, as these seats will not flip under any circumstances. I just cut and pasted this from Nico's post:

21 Kirstin Gillibrand (NY)
22 Delaware (Kaufman)
23 Johnny Isakson (GA)
24 John McCain (AZ)
25 Ron Wyden (OR)
26 Chuck Grassley (IA)

Forget It
27 Kansas (Brownback)
28 Chuck Schumer (NY)
29 Barbara Mikulski (MD)
30 Tom Coburn (OK)
31 Utah (Bennett)
32 Patrick Leahy (VT)
33 Richard Shelby (AL)
34 Mike Crapo (ID)
35 Jim DeMint (SC)
36 John Thune (SD)



41, Ind, CA-05

KY-Sen
A good reason to feel good about Conway's chances is that the last two US Senate races in Kentucky (2004 and 2008) were both close, with Republican incumbents almost losing to little known Democratic challengers. This year, the seat is open, and the Dem candidate is well known. In fact, he's a statewide official that has already been voted into office by the voters of KY. A strange change is that the Republican challenger for the open seat (Paul) is roughly the same as the Dem challengers in 04 and 08 were: relatively unknown statewide and never voted on by all KY voters.
Complete list
LOSSES:
ND
AR
IN
WI
PA
CO
WV
IL
NV
WA
CA
(I know ya'll will tell me I'm crazy for saying WA and CA will flip, but I think its looking more likely by the day)

WINS:
KY
CT
MO
DE
NH
AK
NC
OH
LA
FL
IA
GA
OR
VT
MD
ID
AZ
UT
OK
KS
NY-A
AL
HI
SD


Yours
I have the same, only I don't see WA flipping.  I think it will be oh,so close, but not quite there.  I think CA goes first, but even if we win WA, CA will have a higher margin of victory.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
If we lose 11 seats, I will eat my hat.
I don't think the GOP won that many even in 1994. The best you can hope for is a net of 9. What makes you think Fiorina and Rossi will win?
[ Parent ]
My optimistic take
which assumes that Democrats, though polls indicate they aren't excited about voting, will indeed turn out in usual numbers.  Dem numbers on the left, GOP numbers on the right

ND: 34-66% R pickup
AR: 42-58% R pickup
IN: 44-56% R pickup
KY: 50.5-49.5% D pickup

those are the only four I see flipping, so call me the only guy around who sees only a net 2 seat loss for Senate Democrats, still leaving us with 57-43 control of the Senate.  After that:

WI: 51-49% D hold
CO: 52-48% D hold
PA: 52-48% D hold
NV: 48-43-9% D hold
IL: 51-46-3% D hold
MO: 47-53% R hold
WV: 54-46% D hold
WA: 54-46% D hold
AK: 39-35-26% R hold, D in 2nd, Murkowski 3rd.
NH: 45-55% R hold
FL: 40-30-30% R hold, D and Crist tie.
LA: 45-55% R hold
CA: 56-44% D hold
NC: 44-56% R hold
OH: 44-56% R hold
CT: 57-43% D hold
DE: 63-37% D hold

Not too different from my list...
So your list should be quite sound and reality based. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
OK, OK, if you really want my crystal ball...
Here we go:

(Starting with the goners...)

North Dakota (D -> R)
Arkansas (D -> R)
Indiana (D -> R)
Kentucky (R -> D)
Wisconsin (D -> R)
Alaska (R-> R/I)

(The flips stop here...)

Pennsylvania (D hold)
Colorado (D hold)
Illinois (D hold)
West Virginia (D hold)
Nevada (D hold)
Missouri (R hold)
Washington (D hold)
New Hampshire (R hold)
Louisiana (R hold)
California (D hold)
Connecticut (D hold)
Florida (R hold)
North Carolina (R hold)
Ohio (R hold)

(After here, the races aren't remotely close. New York and Delaware should both be double digit D blowouts...)



Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

your AK flip is interesting
   since the R incumbent and the I takeover are actually the same person. That is a tough race to figure...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Tell me about it...
I put it as a flip b/c Murkowski may end up being the GOP's "Lieberman Problem" if she pulls this out. She'll probably vote with them at least 70% of the time, like Lieberman does with Dems, but also like him she may feel more emboldened to challenge them on big legislation when she's not in the mood to cooperate. I know write-in's hardly ever succeed, but this is one of those years when "hardly ever" becomes possible... Especially since Miller keeps making a fool out of himself and McAdams has yet to surge past the GOP infighting.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a real photo finish in AK, perhaps with all 3 major candidates within 2% of each other. The only thing keeping Murkowski alive, other than Miller's crazy, is that she knows how dependent Alaska is on the federal government. That's her ace in the hole, and it's yet to be seen if either Miller or McAdams can trump that with allegations of "corruption" or a generic "throw the bums out" message.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
As much as I like Feingold and his
principles, I'd much rather lose that seat and win Colorado, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and the others. If Johnson is as bad as some indicate, he'll be tossed out during a normal climate, while we might not get a chance at some of the other seats for a few decades.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
My go
Okay, without looking at anyone else's:

ND
AK
IN
WI
PN
WV
IL
CO
NV
CA
Cutoff
WA
KY
MO
CT
LA
NH
NC
AK (I'm counting Miller and Mirkouski both as a hold)
DE
NY-B
FL
OH
IA
HI (Only if he died)
OR
GA
KS
OK
MD
VT
AZ
NY-A
UT
AL
ID
SC
SD

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

All 3 declared Republicans posting so far
think Fiorina will win in California, while all other posters have California below the cutoff line.  Interesting.  MassGOP, what say you?  
My picks
ND- Bye.
AR- This one might end up closer than people think. Still a certain loss.
IN- I have no clue what happened here.
PA- Sestak will run out of time.
WI- I hate to say it, but it looks bad for Feingold.
CO- Hard to get a hold on this one, but things slightly favor Buck.
KY- Pure tossup. The optimist in me says Conway will make it.
CUTOFF
IL- Dems will come home and (barely) save Alexi.
NV- What a stinker.
WV- Manchin's whiplash to the right will pull him to a win.
CA- I don't see Fiorina doing it.
WA- Rossi is the wrong candidate for this cycle.
NH- No post-primary fallout means Ayotte pulls through.
FL- Oh, how things change.
CT- McMahon had her chance.
MO- Another one that my surprise people, but Carnahan would need a small miracle.
LA- In any other year...
AK- Counting Miller & Murk both as R's.
NC- In any other year...
OH- Fisher has been bad, but I'm not sure any Dem could've done this one.
NY(B)- Gillibrand will be fine.
IA- Another victim of the bad cycle.
AZ- Hayworth had to go and lose.
DE- lol.

All others are rock solid.

20, Democrat, KY-01

Just because...
I'm bored, so I'll go ahead and rank the rest too, lol.

GA- This would've been interesting in '08.
OR
HI- He'll break Byrd's record.
OK
KS
MD
VT
AL
NY(A)
UT- Poor Bob Bennett.
ID
SC- Alvin Greene is on the scene!
SD- Kinda wish Dems would've gotten a warm body here. Oh well.

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
OK, for the Hell of it
I'm predicting these seats will flip:

ND
AR
IN
WI
CO

And I'll say one of the following will flip:

PA
WV
IL

I will predict the rest of the seats will not flip - ergo, Democratic retention in CA and WA (I give Fiorina and Rossi about a 30% chance of victory, not sufficient to believe one of them will win). Of course, I hope KY flips, but previous experience with close wins for Bunning and McConnell militate against an outright prediction of a Democratic win.

So, I'm somewhat optimistically predicting the Republicans will win a net of 6 seats. It could easily be worse, but it also could conceivably be better. In order of likelihood, I'd predict the possible flips from Republican to Democrat as follows:

KY
MO
AK (though I think Murkowski will win it and count her as a Republican)
NH
NC
FL (counting Crist as a Democrat, which is dubious)

I give Conway about a 40% chance of winning; Carnahan I'll give a 20% chance to; 12% for McAdams; NH, NC, and FL are quite unlikely (maybe 5% for NH and less for the other two). Note that I consider LA Safe Republican.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

I just realized I didn't even comment on CT
I consider that race almost Safe Democrat - I give McMahon maybe a 3% chance of winning.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I wonder what the history
of people trying to hold a seat for the dominant party in the state without having any political history is. Kentucky seems to have a sizable stable of Democrats that it elects to state positions and to congress, but while it's still a pretty red state, Conway seems like the sort of Democrat that could get elected to the Senate. Paul might be a slightly more natural fit, but this is his first run for office. He's not a carpetbagger like, say, Hillary Clinton, but he hasn't built the sort of relationships that go along with starting out at the local level and then moving up, or starting smaller by going to the House and then moving up. His biggest asset seems to be being Ron Paul's son. That was clearly a boon for him in the primary, but aside from what, what use is it?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Moooo....
certain flips:
ND
AR
IN

tossups, tilt to flip:
WV
CO

tossups, tilt retention:
NH
WI

retention more probable than not:
PA
IL

median outcome: R+5±1


My guesses
From left to right is most likely to flip to least likely.

Democratic Seats

Safe Republican

ND

Likely Republican

AR, IN

Lean Republican

WI, WV, CO, PA

Just recently Republicans were leading by single digits in all these polls, but now we have polls with Dems in slight leads or tied.  For me, though, the WI polls aren't convincing.  I'm not sure if Feingold is really turning things around.

Toss-Up

IL, NV, WA

Polls have always shown only margin of error leads for either side.  I'm very worried about IL as Kirk has had that lead for a while.  We need a GOTV effort there.  There have too many WA polls showing a tied race for me to move that race to lean Dem.  Still, I'm hoping that Dems win all these races.

Lean Dem

CA, CT

Likely Dem

DE

I SAY:  Republican flip four to seven seats.

----------------------------------------------------------

Republican seats

Lean Republican

AK, KY, NH, MO

Miller and Paul are falling apart, but in Red states.  I'm not convinced that McAdams and Conway can break through.

Ayotte's and Blunt's leads are single digit, but they seem pretty solid.

Likely Republican

LA, FL, OH, NC

Safe Republican

AZ

I SAY:  No flips of Republican flips.  I see possible flips only in AK and KY, but I'm very doubtful.

can we do one of these for govs next?
1.  Hoeven by 37
2.  Boozman +18
3.  Coats +11
4.  Raese +6
5.  Johnson +4
6.  Toomey +3
7.  Kirk +2
H.  Paul +1
H.  Bennet +3
H.  Reid +4
H.  Ayotte +5
H.  Portman +6
H.  Boxer +7
H.  Murray +7
H.  Miller +8 over Murkowski +6 over Adams
H.  Blunt +9
H.  Burr +10
H.  Vitter +10

Everyone else holds for their party by double digits, including DE and CT.

People know I've posted this question before, but how are the offices stacked on the ballot in IL?  Is it Quinn on top?  Because I think that could hurt Alexi for some reason.

sorry Scott....
I'm going to have a Quarter Pounder at Donalds for lunch in your honor, right after reading some good news for John Cain!
[ Parent ]
The dirty dozen
The twelve seats that matter the most...

1.  ND
2.  AR
3.  IN
4.  WI
5.  PA
6.  CO
7.  NV
8.  IL
9.  WV
10. KY
11. WA
12. CA

Best case (realistic) scenario: We lose a net of two (losing ND, AR, and IN while picking up KY, the toss-ups go to the Dems and Feingold somehow holds on).

Worst case: We lose 11 seats (ND, AR, IN, WI, PA, CO, NV, IL, WV, WA and CA). Thankfully, I think there's an extremely slender chance that this will happen.

My take
FLIP

1. NORTH DAKOTA
2. ARKANSAS
3. INDIANA
4. WISCONSIN

TOSSUP

5. PENNSYLVANIA
6. COLORADO
7. NEVADA
8. WEST VIRGINIA
9. ILLINOIS

LEAN RETAIN

10. CALIFORNIA
11. WASHINGTON
12. KENTUCKY
13. ALASKA
14. FLORIDA


One note about the tossups
I think the GOP will take at least 4 of them, if not all 5.
[ Parent ]
Mine
Flips
1. North Dakota
2. Indiana
3. Arkansas
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. West Virginia
8. Illinois
9. Nevada

Holds, by less than 5
10. Washington
11. California
13. Kentucky

Holds, by less than 10
14. Alaska (I think Murkowski will win and McAdams will be about 6 back)
15. Missouri

Holds, by less than 20
16. New Hampshire
17. Ohio
18. Florida
19. North Carolina
20. Connecticut

At this point, I think we can expect all other races to be held by 20 or more points.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Democratic seats only

North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Colorado
West Virginia
Illinois
Nevada
Washington
California
Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Oregon
Rankings for a 54-46 Senate
Definite Pickups:
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin
Colorado
Nevada

I think this is the flipping threshold.

Possible Pickups:
Pennsylvania
Illinois
West Virginia
Washington
California
Kentucky

Unlikely Pickups:
Alaska
Missouri
Connecticut

Not flipping but were competitive:
North Carolina
Louisiana
New Hampshire
Florida
Ohio
Delaware

Buffalo Burger
My list:

ND
AR
KY
AK
NH

I can see some other seats moving but I think those 5 will all switch.  

As I told James at Netroots I will bet a Buffalo Burger on the Dems actually picking up Senate seats.  I know I am going against all the pundits, but I still think that worst case is a net neutral and a more likely outcome is picking up seats.

Dems will hold:
DE
CA
WA
PA
CO
IL
WV

I think in the end Dems will also hold:
WI
IN (the one I am most worried about)

Dems will definitely lose:
ND
AR

Dems will pick up the following:
KY
AK
NH

The Dems could also pick up:
MO (it will likely be very close)
NC
OH (the polls are horrible and Fisher doesn't seem to have the money to close, but the dynamics of the race still make me wonder if a final GOTV push might result in a surprise on election night)
LA
IA (the DFA/PCCC ad is a great closer)
AZ (unlikely, but I am still it might surprise)


Looking forward to my burger.

[ Parent ]
We will see
We will see who is buying who a burger in a week (or more depending on the Alaska vote count a couple weeks), but either way we will both get some delicious buffalo burgers :)  
[ Parent ]
Senate Cattle Call (October 2010) | 85 comments

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