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SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Oct 22, 2010 at 2:49 PM EDT


• KY-Sen: The Beltway chattering class seems to have either moved on from "Aqua Buddha," or taken it as a given that it just backfired on Jack Conway. Josh Green at the Atlantic does some actual, y'know, reporting on what's happening on the ground, though, and finds that the ad (and its rebuttal), and their aftermath, are still completely driving the conversation in Kentucky. Local GOP pols still seem to think that Rand Paul will squeak by in the end, but it's thrown him deeply off message and the refusal to debate again doesn't look good on him. (UPDATE: Actually, Greg Sargent just reported that the Conway camp is taking down the Aqua Buddha ad. To clarify "taking down," though, this was a planned move, as it reached the end of its original run, to be replaced by this sales tax ad.)

• PA-Sen: Barack Obama will be making a four-state swing through the east coast and midwest over the weekend prior to the election; one of the stopping spots will be Philadelphia, where he'll be doing a canvassing event. He'll also be doing rallies in Chicago, Cleveland, and Bridgeport, Connecticut (indicating they're still leaving nothing to chance with Richard Blumenthal).

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman breaking self-funding records has become something of a dog-bites-man story around here, but one more for old times sake: she spent $23 million in the first half of October, bringing her all-cycle total to $163 million. Jerry Brown, by contrast, spent $14.6 million in that period, bringing his all-cycle spending to $25 million.

• CO-Gov: I doubt this is much of a game-changer, but it may help flip a few more Colorado Springs area votes in Tom Tancredo's direction (if there were any Dan Maes supporters left there). Rep. Doug Lamborn became perhaps the most prominent elected Republican in Colorado to publicly come out in support of Tancredo, rather than Maes.

• MN-Gov: The RGA must be seeing something the polls aren't telling them, because they're still fighting till the end in Minnesota. (Of course, if one committee has money to throw at unlikely races and see what sticks, it's the RGA.) They just gave $1 million to third party group Minnesota Future to run more anti-Mark Dayton (and probably anti-Tom Horner) ads. (You may remember Minnesota Future from the whole Target contribution controversy. Interestingly, Hubbard Broadcasting, owner of local TV station KSTP, also was just identified as having given $25K to Minnesota Future. Y'know, because they're part of that liberal lamestream media.)

• FL-24: And here I'd thought we'd dodged something of a bullet when Karen Diebel got sent packing to spent more time guarding her swimming pool. Sandy Adams, who seems likely to be the next Representative for the Space Coast, has come out in favor of the "biblical teachings" rather than the theory of evolution. I look forward to hearing her proposals for a faith-based space program next.

• ID-01: The Tea Party Express finally endorsed Raul Labrador in the 1st. However, that comes only after they tried to endorse Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick as their token Dem fig-leaf and he rejected the endorsement (over racist statements by one of their, at the time, key members).

• Early voting: Ohio Democrats are pointing to an edge in early voting, where they're leading 44 percent to 34 percent for Republicans in votes cast so far. The Republicans are claiming the edge after three days of early voting in Florida, with a 148,000 vote edge, although Dems pointed out that was about where the numbers were in the 2006 election.

• Redistricting: Here's a good counterpoint to several articles that have shrugged off the possible large Republican advantage on the redistricting front coming out of this election, one that actually looks at the actual number of House seats that are likely to be influenced. Extrapolating likely control of state governorships and legislatures, the GOP will have "untrammeled" control over 125 House seats while Dems will control only 62, a worse outcome than 1990 or 2000. (43 are in commission-based states or at-large states, with 205 drawn by divided governments.)

• Chamber of Commerce: This article was been making the rounds, but it's a must-read if you haven't already done so and you're interested in the "dark money" that's swamping the transparent money, this cycle more than ever. The NYT digs into what corporations are using the national Chamber of Commerce as a pass-through for their contributions, including Prudential, Dow Chemical, and Dutch insurer Aegon.

• SSP TV:
• AZ-Sen: This looks like John McCain's last ad, as it's a soft-focus closing argument type of spot
• CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Ken Buck on environmental issues
• DE-Sen: Here's the first Chris Coons ad to take on Christine O'Donnell directly, saying she lives in the "Twilight Zone"
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid rolls out endorsements from various local business leaders in his newest ad
• WA-Sen: Waiting until the end to go after Dino Rossi for his anti-abortion stance seems to be tradition now, in order to swing any last-minute moderate women who haven't decided, and the DSCC piles on
• HI-Gov: Barack Obama, fresh off his Colleen Hanabusa spot, also cuts an ad touting Neil Abercrombie
• RI-Gov: The DGA keeps pounding on Lincoln Chafee over the tax hikes he'd like (I've also heard the RGA is buying an ad here on behalf of John Robitaille, though I haven't seen a link)
• WV-03: Ewwww... Spike Maynard plays the terrorist card against Arab-American Rep. Nick Rahall
• MoveOn: MoveOn seems to have saved their powder for one huge blast at the end, running ads in eight Senate races and 20 House races (here's their WI-08 ad), helping only Dems who voted in favor of HCR
• Sierra Club: The Sierra Club is out with ads boosting Democratic incumbents in FL-22, MI-07, and AZ-08
• 60+ Assoc.: The AARP's evil doppelganger is running two spots, a two-fer in Arizona hitting both Raul Grijalva and Gabby Giffords, and... here's a new one... Solomon Ortiz in TX-27

• Rasmussen:
• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 44%, Tom Emmer (R) 41%, Tom Horner (I) 10%
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%
• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 31%
• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 44%, Kristi Noem (R) 49%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Afternoon Edition) | 121 comments
Misc. thoughts:
Early voting is going pretty well for us in NV and IA as well.

I thought Paul was going to announce today that he would debate on Monday.

PPP is tweeting a bunch of bad news today.

CO-Gov race is looking pretty competitive; Ky thinks Aqua Buddha ad was over the line; CA prop 19 polling looking bad.

It is looking like next week may be a bad polling week for Dems with that news.  

PPP
The good news for Dems among their tweets is the line about Prop 19 being surprising because there
is not a conservative shift in the other races coinciding with it
.
To me, that implies that Boxer/Brown are still leading.  'course, I'd love to be proved wrong on that.

I'm amazed that Tancredo has turned this into a real race.  I always figured he'd be far too extreme.  I've heard is said that the GOP could fix their 'minor party' problem with legislation even if they do fall behind and get less than 10%, so perhaps people feel safer going for the third party.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
But in regards to fixing it with legislation...
would the Dem legislature and probable-Gov. Hickenlooper go along?

I think it's quite likely that Hickenlooper wins narrowly AND Maes ends up with less than 10%. If the Dems are feeling really generous, they could certainly pass some sort of law to return the GOP to major party status. But in cold political terms, I see no reason why they should care to do so.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
Depends
Yes, I think it would get fixed.  It would take agreement from the (likely) Dem gov and legislature, but it would probably be a trade off for votes on something else.  I don't think the GOP has gone hard after Hickenlooper this cycle, so he's probably not overly mad at them.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
You are assuming that Hickenlooper wins
If Maes completely falls off, and is no more than a minor candidate getting only 3 or 4% of the vote, these is a very real chance that Tancredo wins.  As unbelievable as that is.
[ Parent ]
You have to figure
Maes will get 6-8% on people who vote straight republican alone
[ Parent ]
I've been watching those tweets too...
Doesn't look positive, although it sounds like so far they're finding good results for Sen. Boxer and Atty. Gen. Brown in California.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
That is good news at least. I am really
worried about the CO-Gov race. It looks like Hick let Tarcendo back into the race by refusing to go negative on him, which is a mistake.  
[ Parent ]
Time to start now then
He's got a week and a half.
[ Parent ]
FL-24 if Adams does somehow get away
with her batshit craziness this time around she will go down in 12 barring any major changes to the district.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
Fl-24
I would be surprised if there were not major changes in the district.  One of the new seats is going to be in that area; I'm expecting large changes.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Your probably right
the district was made for ex. rep Tom Feeney so now that hes gone I don't see why they would'nt. But you never know with redistricting and Sink could win and mess with the plans to make central floridas house delegation overwhelmingly republican again.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
MN-Gov....They're Fighting Till The End......
....because the Independence Party candidate is consolidating an endless deluge of rave reviews from everybody with a bully pulpit which makes it seem unlikely he'll be stuck at 10% in the polls on election day as Scott Rasmussen suggests he is today.  If would-be Dayton voters do what Minnesotans have done in the last three Minnesota gubernatorial elections and defected from the DFL candidate en masse in the last 10 days of the campaign, in this case losing votes to Horner, Emmer could still slip in with 35% of the vote.  
Are you in Minnesota because you seem to have
no idea what you are talking about in this race. I am in Minnesota and Horner is not going to pull major votes from Democrats. He is recognized as a conservative. He isn't being viewed as a moderate like other independent candidates have been in the past.  
[ Parent ]
I Live In Iowa But Visit MN Frequently And Track The Race Daily in MN Media.....
I'm sure most of the DFL base is unlikely to defect to Horner.  I'm not talking about them.  I'm talking about the independent soccer mom from Minnetonka and the nominally DFL retired farmer from Lac qui Parle County who is a legacy voter for Dayton even though he has no strong attachment and can still be swayed.  Is it practical to think that every media outlet in the state, along with dozens of moderate Democrats and Republicans, can endorse Horner in the closing weeks of the campaign and not see his numbers tick up?  Particularly when the consensus opinion is that both major party candidates are extremists by everybody without unwavering allegiance to the major parties?
[ Parent ]
I work with the independent soccer moms in
Minnetonka and trust me they aren't voting for Horner. Pawlenty soured women so badly on conservatives/Republicans that these women aren't going to vote for Horner.

Horner isn't the kind of independent that appeals to these women. Newspaper endorsements don't sway votes.

Truthfully, I think you really don't know what you are talking about in Minnesota. Dayton has been polling strong. Horner hasn't been polling well. Dayton's ads are hitting right at issues that have women ticked off at the GOP - education and health and Dayton has a strong base in the north.  

[ Parent ]
askew, I have a feeling that...
...we've been blessed the past few weeks with some contributors here who I sadly suspect are purely itinerant in nature.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
This site is getting pretty painful to read b/c
of the hard spinning for the GOP here lately. We have internal GOP polls taken at face value while independent polls are disregarded. It is getting old.
[ Parent ]
Hence the predictions
of 60, 70, and 90 seat losses in the House.  It's all bullshit.  If you go district by district you'd realize that you'd need a 15-point deficit in the generic ballot to get near the 90-seat mark.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Fair Enough......
I can assure you I've forgotten more about Minnesota politics than you'll ever know, but I'm not on the ground in Minnesota so I'll concede your point that independent women are solidly in the Dayton corner.  Horner's message is selling pain, so you're correct that he's not a natural beneficiary of major-party fatigue the way Ventura did when Ventura was peddling license tab cuts back in 1998.

I'm still amazed, nonetheless, that so many people continue to think they've scored a debating coup on me by informing me that all the early-to-mid-October polls show Dayton leading and therefore his victory is all but assured.  I'll respond to that the same way I have in the past.  In four of the last five Minnesota gubernatorial elections, the candidate who led in the polls in mid-October lost.  

[ Parent ]
FYI,
This borders on plain offensive:

I can assure you I've forgotten more about Minnesota politics than you'll ever know

[ Parent ]
Yeah You're Right It Was Too Arrogant.....
....but considering I've studied Minnesota politics down to the precinct level in all 87 counties in the state since 1992, being told I don't know what I'm talking about regarding Minnesota politics is gonna illicit an arch-backed response.
[ Parent ]
Since you're so sure of yourself you ought to disclose on whose behalf you did that work. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I Did The Research On Behalf Of A Powerful Institution....
.....known as my own personal interest.  I guess I assumed most of us here were into this sort of thing because it interested us.  Why should I be any different?
[ Parent ]
That's fine, but it means you're no more well-informed than many others here......
Your last comment appeared to raise the hint of having worked professionally in the campaign world.  So best to clarify quickly that that's not the case.

But your distinction here has been to make predictions in which you are truly alone, even compared to Republican campaign professionals.  No one but you thinks the GOP will win a net 93 House seats or that Raese beats Manchin by 12.  Those are in the realm of the absurd to the point that I don't know if I could find predictions like those even among the most optimistic right-wing commenters on Red State or Free Republic.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
They're extreme predictions
and probably absurd. But we won't know until after the election results. My only problem with Mark is the repetition and gloating over some polls that suggest some of his predictions could be right.

Mark: We get your point, and it's fine that you've gone out onto a long, tiny limb, but you might not want to jump up and down too often while you're still standing there precariously.

By the same token, it makes little sense for those of us who think Mark's predictions are kind of nutty to gloat before the elections. Why not wait until the returns are in before laughing and pointing?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Well the major problem with the Rasmussen poll
is the opposite of what you think because the Horner number is unusually low considering other polls and the Emmer numbers too high.  That's probably where the 3% margin comes from, too many Emmer voters and not enough of what should happen and them switching to Horner.

Emmer is not electable in MN and if it were a two-way race, even Dayton who is viewed as the most liberal politician in the state probably at this point.  But Horner came along specifically because Emmer was a nut job and he'll capture moderate Republicans and get the usual Indy votes.  And if Horner can't break 20% and really start cutting into Dayton's margin, Dayton wont be getting lower than 40-42% simply based off it being Minnesota and Dayton going to dominate in the Greater MN where we are weak at times.  That combined with Minneapolis/St Paul turn-out probably being astronomical because it's been 20 years since we've won, and the Pawlenty Western suburbs will not be going for Emmer.

[ Parent ]
Off-Topic Question......
Was there a single precinct in the country that Ralph Nader WON in 2000?
Probably not
Instead of campaigning in states like New York, California, and Texas, where draining votes from Gore wouldn't have made a difference, I believe he focused his efforts on swing states. I could be wrong about that, however, since I am relying purely on memory, and that was a long time ago.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Agree
The only way I could see it is if a precinct was SUPER small (<20 votes).  
[ Parent ]
Didn't he win Maui?
I thought he did.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
Don't
Don't think so, he  got less than 6% in the whole state.  That would have been an awful lot of people smoking Maui Wowie for that to have happened.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
no.
Maui is a county (the whole island) and Nader most definitely did not win any counties in the USA.
[ Parent ]
Kucinich won Maui in the 2004 Democratic primary
    I don't think Ralph won anywhere.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
I'd be extremely surprised if he did
Even in extremely Liberal places he was at best a distant second to Gore. (For instance in Berkeley, CA he got 13% of the vote.)  Precinct to precinct results don't vary dramatically without a good reason.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
At least one
I've been looking through Alaska results and so far I've found one precinct that gave Nader 56 votes to Gore's 49 and Bush's 32 (40% to 35% and 23%). That's Peninsula/Chilkat in the 5th House district -- source here: http://www.elections.alaska.go...

I wouldn't be surprised if there are few more in AK, but I doubt there are any in the lower 48.

[ Parent ]
Thanks For The Info.....
I had forgotten how well Nader did in Alaska.
[ Parent ]
I wonder why...
CQ Politics took down their Gov forecasts/ratings:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

Used to be 3 tabs (House/Sen/Gov) now just two.  As if there are no Gov races this year...

Well, they _are_
"Congressional" Quarterly.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
They havent had gov races
In about two months. Many of their ratings were very outdated (for example, when they took it down, NM-Gov was still Likely D)  
[ Parent ]
Well then that's probably why they took them down
they are finally going to change their predictions a week and a half out.
[ Parent ]
Rumor
I think I heard this here at SSP, but I think KY-6 is going to have a poll out today. While I expect any poll to show either a tied race or Dem Ben Chandler slightly ahead, KY-6 is still one of my early yardsticks for Election Night.

I fully expect Chandler to win, but I still would like to see that poll if it is indeed going to be out today.

I would also like to see polls in IN-9, GA-8, and SC-5, but heck, that's not going to happen, I don't think.

I believe a commenter here
mentioned that last night. I think it was a 6pm expected release? Mason Dixon?
[ Parent ]
Chandler 48-44
According to Mason Dixon.

http://www.kentucky.com/2010/1...

[ Parent ]
Not great
But at least Chandler's ahead.
[ Parent ]
DCCC gets $17M line of credit
Smart move
The party is raising LOTS of money this month (e.g. $11 million to the DNC alone in the first two weeks), so they'll probably just be borrowing money they'll rake in before election day.
[ Parent ]
Silver on WI-Se
"In Wisconsin, for instance, a new poll from St. Norbert College shows Russ Feingold just 2 points behind Ron Johnson - his best figure in a nonpartisan survey in some time. But this islv the first time that St. Norbert has gone into the field: we have no idea whether they're in fact capturing tightening (could be), or their poll just happens to be a bit goofy (could also be). None of the several pollsters who had Mr. Johnson ahead by about 7 points before have yet weighed in with news of a materially tighter race."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

Silly Silver, "no idea" whether there is tightening? I would consider that Oct. 12-14 Penn poll of WI-8 (the one showing a 1 point difference between Dem Kagan and Repub Ribble to be an "idea" of tightening, even in WI-Sen.

This election analysis stuff isn't hard. Heck, I could do what Silver, Cook, and the gang do.


Then do
And if you establish a reliable record of being right and able to articulate your points well, you'll gain a following.  Just as those guys have done.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
This Race Strikes Me As More Prone For a Comeback Than Most......
It seems odds-against given how deep of a hole Feingold found himself in a month ago, but given how amateurish Johnson appeared in those debates, the window-shopping phase in which voters think they want Johnson may be diminishing.  This is, after all, Wisconsin.  There is not an instinctive draw to tea party nutjobs based on their electoral history, so they still seem more likely than other parts of the country to make a rational and obvious choice in the closing hours of the campaign.  Again, my money's against it, but if anybody has made it clear that they're not ready for primetime in recent weeks, it's Johnson.
[ Parent ]
A Tancredo win could be devastating long-term for the CO GOP
And not just because of the minor party issue.

According to CNN exit polls, Obama won the Latino vote in CO only 61-38, which I think is understating it but is still far less than the 3-1 margins among Latinos in California and Nevada.

However, Tancredo is pretty well-known as being incredibly anti-Latino. My parents, who are among the few conservative Hispanic Republicans in California, loathe Tancredo. Having him win the governorship might be the equivalent of Prop 187 in CA or the recent immigration fight in AZ, the big event that tips Latinos to the Democrats once and for all. We've already seen GOP support plummet among AZ Hispanics, and CO might be next.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

I Seem To Remember The 2004 Exit Polls Showing.....
....that Kerry won the Hispanic vote in Colorado 70-29, his best state in the nation with Hispanics that year.  It seemed credible at the time given that he was sharing the ticket with Ken Salazar, but looking at the micro date in Colorado from 2008 where Obama gained in every county, it seems very unlikely that McCain picked up nine points in the Hispanic vote.  Makes me wonder if the exit polling data dealing with the Hispanic vote was as far off the mark at the exit polling was showing Kerry winning Ohio by six points.
[ Parent ]
A couple things......
Yes exit polls are wrong sometimes.  Provably on occasion.

And given that Hispanic subsamples are much smaller than a total sample in a given state, the margin of error is certainly higher.  But ultimately it depends on the size of the subsample whether a figure is statistically valid.

Second, there was never an exit poll showing Kerry winning Ohio by 6!  There was leaked data more than once on election day that bloggers and political reporters had no idea how to interpret.  Whatever they saw, it wasn't a complete exit poll.  Even the leaked data I saw had Kerry up something like 51-49 in Ohio, nothing better, and the same in some other states including Florida.  This wasn't even complete data, it was leaked while exit poll workers were still collecting surveys from an enormous percentage of the eventual total sample.

But the classic example of a provably incorrect exit poll is North Carolina 2004, where the exit poll claimed 26% of voters were black.  Well, NC happens to track voter registration by race under VRA requirements, and they go a step further for the sake of the public interest and publish voter turnout by race.  And the state data, which of course consists of exact numbers and not a poll, revealed that 19.6% of voters were black that year, WAAAAAY outside the exit poll's 26% turnout.  The 26% figure never made sense on its face because only 20% of North Carolinians are black, so the exit poll was claiming a white candidate from a thousand miles away who never campaigned in the state was drawing massive turnout 6 points above census.  That by itself didn't pass the sniff test, which is the only test we usually have regarding exit polls, but in this instance we had hard data to prove the exit poll was wrong.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
My Recollection Is The First Subset of 2004 Exit Polls.....
....showing the race 53-47 for Kerry in both Ohio and Florida.  They also showed 57-43 in Minnesota and 60-40 in Pennsylvania, which made them immediately suspect.  They were right on Iowa and Louisiana, however, with 49-49 for the former and 57-43 Bush for the latter.  The next round were closer to accurate that came out in the late afternoon and showed Kerry leading by only one point each in Ohio and Florida.

In 2008, CNN's exit polling data state by state was pretty suspicious too.  By my calculation, Obama was 50-50 in South Dakota based on their micro-data and something like 57-43 McCain in North Dakota, when in reality McCain won both states by the same nine-point margin

[ Parent ]
No, it won't be helpful...
They will pass some sort of AZ-style anti-hispanic law and hispanics will simply  move out of the state making it less competitive for Dems in the long run.

It's never a good thing to have an extremist as governor.

Anyways, Magellen has a tied race. PPP probably has it within 5 or so. None of these are good.  Mr. Hickenloper needs to get off his ass and start campaigning soon, or he will find that his "gift" governorship will go the way of Martha Coackley's "gift" Senate seat.

[ Parent ]
Where has he given
any indication that he is not fighting? Just because someone is slipping in the polls or that their opponent is catching up doesn't mean they aren't trying.
[ Parent ]
fmr nj ag
and gubernatorial candidate cary edwards died.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10...

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

Some good numbers out of CA-44 & CA-48?
I'm not sure if these can be qualified as "good", but it seems that in CA-44 the GOP has returned 21% of ballots issued, while dems have returned 19% of ballots issued.

It's about the same in CA-48 where the GOP has returned 22% of mail in ballots issued, and dems have returned 20% of ballots issued.

Only problem with this somewhat equal showing is the VAST difference in actual ballots issued and returned.  In CA-44, only 7691 mail in ballots have been requested, whereas the GOP has requested 20020 mail in ballots.

CA-48 has dems requesting 52687 Mail in ballots, and the GOP has 91230 requesting mail in ballots.

The amount of dems requesting in CA-44 is quite disheartening, and my only thought is that CA-44 is going to have overall lower turnout than say CA-48, which contains Irvine and UCI, because CA-44 has no major population centers.

What do you guys think?  I know for a fact all the ballots that have been mailed back haven't been counted (Sent mine back to CA-44 on Monday, and it hasn't been processed yet according to the OC vote website).  I have high hopes for Hedrick, but with return numbers like that, it isn't making me any more hopefull...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

I mentioned this in another thread...
and I know that the GOP typically has the advantage on mail ballots requested, but I think Whitman's spending on GOTV might explain some of these requests, and will effect GOP turnout to a tangible extent.

Do you agree? As someone on the ground in California, what do you think will be the effect of Whitman's GOTV efforts? I don't think she has a chance at this point, even with an extra 3-4% from her turnout operation, but that 3-4% might be enough to effect races like CA-Sen, CA-11, and CA-47.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
HAHA
I'm absolutely the worst person to ask when it comes to ground game.  If I weren't so into elections, I would be one of the hardest voters to reach out to.  I don't read newspapers, I don't watch TV, I get no mailers, I only have a cell phone, I get most of my news online from national news sites (Huffpo, TPM and so on) and I have ad blocking software installed on my computer (Ad=Block plus for Firefox FTW!)

If I didn't seek out political ads, I likely would never see any.

Because of this, I had/have no idea if Meg Whitman has made any large GOTV efforts.  I DO know that McNerdy is playing ads on bay area local news just because I saw two while I was at the gym the other day (again, don't watch TV, just noticed it when I glanced up from the treadmill).

I think that the races you mentioned (CA-Sen, CA-11, and CA-47) will hold, I have been to Santa Ana, and it has a HUGE and by huge I mean GINORMOUS Hispanic population.  Sanchez's gaff may have cost her some votes, but she won 70% of the vote in 2008, so the thought that she is even in trouble is laughable to me.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'm with you
on Ad Block Plus. I disable it on sites I like though (like SSP) because I feel bad denying them the advertising revenue.

I guess I'm projecting my own behavior onto others re: CA-47, because if a Republican made a similar statement ("the Hispanics are trying to steal  my seat"), I wouldn't cast a vote for that person. The thing that bothers me is that I think she meant it. So it's disturbing to me that people would still feel comfortable casting their votes for her.

 

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
Ad Block
That guy so puffed up about Ad Blocking everything will kind of be shooting himself in the foot if his favorite sites go out of business (or even just have to scale back) due to lack of revenue.
So you've got a real nice idea of turning it off for SSP.
[ Parent ]
Don't get me wrong
I have ad block on for most sites, but for DK and SSP, I have it off.  big sites like Huffpo and NYT don't need my ad views, and it's not even like I click on any ads to begin with.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
While what she said does kinda appeal to an Us vs Them mentality
Replace the word Vietnamese with Mexicans, and I hear that kind of rhetoric from a lot of californians, and the occasional republican legislator.  They are rarely ever repremanded.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Like one of my grandmothers.
She calls them "lazy bums" and think Democrats aren't shoring up the borders enough because they want more votes.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
How do you
Turn it off for certain websites? I want to turn mine off on SSP too.  
[ Parent ]
To the right
of the red stop sign with "ABP", there's a drop-down arrow. Click it and you should see "disable on swingstateproject.com" as an option.

20, GOP, NH-02
[ Parent ]
To the right
of the red stop sign with "ABP", there's a drop-down arrow. Click it and you should see "disable on swingstateproject.com" as an option.

20, GOP, NH-02
[ Parent ]
Here is why you should NOT be disheartened at all (link)......
http://www.redstate.com/redale...

Yes it's Red State, but read it anyway, the underlying facts they cite are not in dispute as far as I know.

And those underlying facts are instructive regarding California early voting.

Please read the comments, too, as they are very instructive.

In case you're wondering after you read this, Obama won the state 62-37.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's treads like that redstate one
That has me thanking the heavens that SSP isn't a cespool of people calling each other trolls if they have info that isn't favorable to their size if it is actually legitimate.

But this give me some hope, I suppose I should be looking more at percentages than the totals for a more accurate picture of how its looking.

Thanks for that link.  Redstate is full of morons, and that was a good post for a few chuckles. hahaha

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
It's all about having apples-to-apples numbers to compare......
We cannot evaluate early voting without knowing how early voters behaved compared to the electorate as a whole in the recent past under the same circumstances.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
hahahahahaha

[ Parent ]
RI-01 is a tie according to GOP internal
Public Opinion Strategies has Cicilline and Loughlin tied at 41. Big margin of error though: 5.7 points. Not quite believing this one, because I haven't heard anything out of Rhode Island suggesting this is competitive.

Link: http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Loughlin
has gained some ground, but that's expected when there are so many undecided voters. But Cicilline has been way ahead in every poll, and I don't expect that to change.
[ Parent ]
It's called POS for a reason

[ Parent ]
Yeah, sorry...no.
Just...really do not see this one happening.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
PA-SEN
ras shows  4 point race

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

even rassy can't save Toomey

Crazy Carl
Rasmussen's NY numbers are all anout 10 points more Republican the the poll averages.  He has Crazy Carl Palladino in a semi competitive race, down only 14 points.  The Real Clear Politics average today shows Carl trailing by 23.8 points.  The Schumer number is closer to the RCP average.

Frankly, Cuomo had been leading by 30 and I think that's a better read on the race tahn even the 24 point bulge.

Co-Gov: Hickenlooper is Dukakis re-born
If your opponent is a spaz named Tancredo and a buffoon named Maes and you are not blowing them away in the polls in a state Obama carried by 8.5% fucking points, you are a GADDAMN IDIOT!!!!

I mean, I thought he was the luckiest Dem in the whole country after McInnis lost and Maes got the nomination (now Coons has that title and he is proving himself pretty well), but now he is tied with a racist in a purple state like CO??? I mean WTF is this shit? Who is advising his campaign? more importantly, how is it that he was seen as more electable than Bennet (assuming he appointed to replace Salazar) and now Bennet is running the smarter campaign. What a ditz!

I swear even if he wins, I DO NOT want to see Hickenlooper's name anywhere near a list of potential Dem Prez nominees in 2016. If his 2010 campaign is anything like what he'd run in 2016, we're royally fucked!!

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Whoa, calm down there.
Hickenlooper only even cleared 50% in a couple of polls, and that was barely.  Hickenlooper likely would have trounced Maes, but Tancredo's entry totally changed the dynamic and I think Hickenlooper probably assumed that Maes would get 15-20% of the vote just based on straight-ticket Republican voting, rather than the complete collapse he's done.  I don't think he's run a poor campaign so much as not being able to predict the total collapse of Maes's campaign.

How is he tied with a "racist" like Tancredo in a purple state like Colorado?  Like it or not, staunch anti-illegal immigration stances are a vote-getter, particularly in the West (see: Jan Brewer.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Completely disagree
CO is at the median of the potentially competitive states, with NM and NV generally to the left of CO, and AZ and TX very much to the right of CO. If Hick was in AZ, then yes I can see your argument, but even Tancredo would not win in TX (and probably not in AZ but maybe..see Brewer).

But besides that, ALL campaigns are about choices. There is no reason on earth why a centrist pol like Hickenlooper should be tied in polls with a nut like Tancredo, let alone in a contest with a jobless inexperienced nimrod like Maes! I honestly don't see the differnece btw Maes and Tancredo, except one was sadly a congressman.

Look at this this way, how is Hickenlooper polling in the low 40s in a state with ample more Dems and a good number of thinking suburban Reps and Indies familiar with his record from Denver. Why would a lot of Reps be considering Tancredo if it is not because Hickenlooper completely left him undefined, un-attacked (if that is a word) and off the hook...ergo, my comparison to Dukakis.

I mean how does a so-called experienced pol who clearly was miffed at being skipped by Ritter in favor of Bennet then got his revenge (indreclty) by Ritter chosing not to run for re-leection, now be jeopardizing the race? I mean right now he is in no better shape than Ritter and probably worse. Ugh!

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
Regarding Bennet, he was always underrated......
All the names that got tossed around publicly way back when, including Hick and Romanoff, were insiders who almost certainly would NOT be doing any better than Bennet right now, and I think an argument can be made they'd be doing worse.  They are establishment figures who can be pilloried as "insiders" and also have longer records that can be picked apart.

Bennet is actually as close as we could get to having an "outsider" in the seat.  Ritter, by appointing Bennet, unwittingly did us a favor as far as I'm concerned.

More broadly, all the talk of the problems the choice of appointed Senators caused Dems in 4 states this cycle appears to have been mistaken except in one state:  Illinois.  And there we were victimized by rogue crook Blago being in charge, it's not like the party establishment had a voice in the matter.  Gillibrand is crusing, we lucked out in Delaware, and I regard Bennet as our strongest possible candidate in CO.  For all the talk of Hickenlooper's popularity, if he really is letting Tancredo of all people get within the margin of error, there's no reason to assume he'd do better than Bennet, or even as well, against the less toxic Buck.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NJ-3: Runyan leads 40-37 in Stockton/Zogby Poll
Jon Runyan leads incumbent John Adler 40-37 in the latest Zobgy/Stockton poll (Zogby telephone NOT internet).  In the previous poll Adler led 38-30.  Apparent Tea party planted candidate Pete Destefano picks up 5% of the vote compared to 8% in the last poll in September.  600 likely voters surveyed, MOE 4.1%.

http://www.politickernj.com/42...

Zogby
I like those numbers, but Zogby has a way to go before I think much of their polls.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
"Zogby"
Anything with that word on it should be treated as toxic waste and disposed of properly.
[ Parent ]
Obama Rallies
I hope this isn't too burried in the comments but Obama is doing a rally in Minneapolis tomorrow for Mark Dayton. It's on the U of M campus. I'm so excited!!!

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
Nice, have fun!
Please report back with details.
[ Parent ]
Scott 44 Sink 41
that poll is weird
It has Sink winning independents by 11 points, but still being behind. And it has the two of them tied in Southeast Florida, which never happens in a close election.

Although I do believe this race is a tossup (the lead seems to keep switching), I don't buy this particular poll.

[ Parent ]
Polls
The most recent polls have all been marginally favorable to Scott.  Even the tied one from Sunshine State News represented a swing toward him.  I think Sink has gotten the most she can out of his ethical baggage; she won't win unless she's got another bullet in her chamber.  For all his flaws as a candidate, Scott has turned out to be very good at staying relentlessly on message, so it's unlikely he'll commit a gaffe in the closing days.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
That's not precisely accurate, there's not trend toward Scott at this stage......
I just looked at the chronological list of polls on Real Clear and also on Pollster, and it's obvious this race is a total tossup and trying to pretend Scott has any edge is foolish.  This is the stuff of obsessive campaign junkies like us, we all want to read a lot into a few tea leaves, but the totality of polling doesn't support it.

The list of polls shows Scott and Sink keep trading leads, and the latest poll by dates conducted is the Sunshine Poll showing a 45-45 tie which actually BREAKS a string of 3 straight polls showing a Scott lead.  And all these leads by either candidate is mid-single digits.  Scott has had strings of leads before only to have them broken.

You can't say one candidate has an edge until you see a long string of polls showing that one candidate ahead, maybe with the OCCASIONAL outlier to the contrary.  That's what you see in, for example, KY-Sen, which is close but Paul always leads except for a Dem internal.

This race is a pure tossup, the purest in the country in Governor's races.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It
all comes down to GOTV. I wouldn't be surprised if this races goes into a recount on election night.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Don't even mention Florida and Recounts
Please, let it be a big enough margin that we don't have to live through that again.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Aside from
any races that depend on absentee ballots from overseas or something like that, we shouldn't ever have a race that needs to go into a recount like that. We have the technology to do a lot of things, including, but not limited to, looking at a bar code and seeing if the item is on sale anywhere else. And you're telling me we can't get electronic voting machines with a good degree of accuracy?*

If our political system weren't so dysfunctional, we probably could have agreed on a supplier for such items, with the process being open so each side could track progress and paid for by the federal government so that each state would have similar resources. But we didn't. I'm not exactly sure why. If nothing else, it establishes that there's a base of fairness in each election that neither side has to worry about.

*All of this assumes that tabulating each vote is really simple and isn't like counting check marks on a piece of paper where the paper eventually runs out. I see no reason to think otherwise, so I can't see why a recount is ever necessary, but if I am wrong, please let me know.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Patrick 44 Baker 36 Cahill 8
Why are we still polling MA?
Patrick has been ahead in every single poll. The three-way split will not shrink enough for Baker to win. Patrick is on his way to another term.
[ Parent ]
Heading to a canvassing kick-off tomorrow for Blumenthal!
At least, I expect to, assuming my parents are willing.

Blumenthal himself will be in town, but it seems the canvassing is a multi-level canvassing effort, involving the Blumenthal, Malloy, Larson, and other campaigns.

Including the state rep race--who will probably himself be among the canvassers.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

I thought the MoveOn ad was great
A very creative and illustrative way of displaying average voters, as well as being strong pushback against the Republican IEs.

Radical or something, WA-07
Surprised more havent talked about redistricting
According to that article, Democrats will only control redistricting in California(53) and Massachussetts(9), while Republicans will control it in Pennslyvania(18), Ohio(16), Utah(5), Indiana(9), Florida(27), Georgia(14),  and Texas(36).  

This would be the worst redistricting position for Democrats probably since the 1921 census.

Republicans will now have the keys to lock Democrats out of the House for a decade.  

Democrats will certainly control redistricting in Maryland
and it appears likely that Florida and Ohio will have split control over the process.
[ Parent ]
That's assuming Sink and Strickland win
Sink certainly has a better shot than Strickland, but Sink seems not to be doing well as of late.  Yes, Democrats will control Maryland, so thats 70 seats they will have control over.  
[ Parent ]
In Ohio not just Strickland, but Dems control the Ohio House right now and...
...even a narrow Strickland loss could be enough to help state Dems hold the chamber.

I'm pretty sure the GOP had the trifecta in 2001.  They've got only one now and need to takeaway the other 2.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That's true
But the margin is so narrow(53-46) that losing just four seats would throw the chamber.  Maybe if Strickland only loses by a hair(2-3 points), we could keep losses to two or three there.  

It would really help if Pat Quinn and Alex Sink could pull through in Illinois and Florida respectively, or if Dems could hold the State Senate in New York.    

[ Parent ]
Dems will hold in NY
With the tea bagger crazy on the ticket, it's not gonna be a good state for Repubs.
[ Parent ]
Well, Dems trail in two state Senate races
and can only afford to lose one to keep control, unless they pick up an offsetting seat.  
[ Parent ]
That polling has extremely high MOE...
Why are you so concerned about this stuff?
[ Parent ]
Because redistricting is very important
It decides who controls Congress.  
[ Parent ]
I agree, but I'd take public polling on state Senate races with a HUGE grain of salt!......
It's very hard to poll Congressional races, and a lot of polling is bunk.

Once you get down to state legislative races, it's EXTRAORDINARILY difficult to do a good poll, and the only truly good ones are internals that are never released.

I'm afraid there's not much a campaign junkie can do to predict the outcome of state legislative races beyond waiting for election day.  If you have inside contacts in a particular state then you can get the real scoop, but without that, it's impossible to guess beyond identifying what are tossups.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that's really any worse in those states than a decade ago!......
I'm pretty sure the GOP controlled the Governorships and both chambers of the state legislatures in all those same states EXCEPT for GA-Gov, with Roy Barnes still in power then.  And gerrymandering is the least of our problems in Georgia.

And we didn't have MA-Gov the last time, so that's a gain assuming Patrick doesn't implode these last 11 days.

If anything it' a little bit harder for the Republicans to screw us in some of these states this time than last time because they already maxed out on screwing us last time.  It shouldn't end up any worse, and it's possible that the bluing of some states and/or growth in Latino population and vote share puts us in a stronger position than a decade ago.

I don't think the total number of seats in these states tell the whole story.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Dems had some key states last time
Had complete control in Alabama, Indiana, North Carolina and Tennessee, where Republicans will have control this time.  The only state Republicans will not be better off in this time is Michigan, where I think Democrats will probably hold the state House by a small margin as opposed to Republicans having full control last time.    

If only redistricting had occured in 2009.

[ Parent ]
In NC, we have the governorship,
and in TN, I'm not sure it will matter.
[ Parent ]
Governor cant veto districting in North Carolina
We have to hold at least one of the chambers.  The state Senate looks bad(we trail in seven seats can lose only five to keep control) and in the State House, we trail in many races there too.  
[ Parent ]
Well, at the same time,
there's only so much you can do with redistricting. Most Republican representatives would not want to take on more liberal territory from the cities and suburbs. So at the most, they might be able to squeeze out one seat, if that. Plus, districts breathe and move, so an advantageous district in 2012 might not look so good in 2016.
[ Parent ]
It definitely doesn't matter in TN and AL, but I didn't know that in IN...
...we held the trifecta.  I would've assumed the Republicans have always controlled at least one legislative chamber there, since there was no Democratic wave year in the late 90s or in 2000!

But the big prizes in my mind are the upper Midwestern states.  Those are the purple states with lots of swing voters, the kinds of states where lots of mischief can be made.  Our U.S. House delegations were significantly outnumbered by the GOP in MI, OH, and PA for much of the past decade due to gerrymandering, and it took a couple of wave elections to overcome it.  Now that there's a GOP wave, those unfavorable lines are stinging us yet again.

We need something in each of these states to ensure that the large numbers of Democrats are more split up across districts, rather than packed in tight like sardines.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Dems didn't have the trifecta in Indiana
There was a Dem governor and a slight Dem majority in the state house (53-47), but Republicans have long had a big and unshakable majority in the state senate.  

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Not really
we have a decent shot at Florida and Ohio. TX is already gerrymandered to the max (plus Bill White has some shot at shocking the country). Georgia is Georgia... Pennsylvania, and Indiana are worrisome.
[ Parent ]
California might not be that secure either
One of the propositions on the ballot would give redistricting control of congressional seats to a nonpartisan commission, which would mean Democrats would have full control of no major states except Massachusetts (which isn't all that helpful given Dems hold all the seats and it's probably losing one).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
IA-02, IA-03 early vote numbers
The Democrats kept up pace this week with Republicans in requesting ballots.  At their low point statewide they had a 22,000 ballot advantage on Republicans, now they're up over 27,000.

The county numbers for the week are out, and I did up the totals for IA-03 and IA-02.

IA-03: 33,123 Dem., 25,030 Rep., 11,206 Ind.

So in IA-03, the Democratic ballot request advantage is 8,093.  Their early/abentee ballot advantage in 2006 was 9,449.  Given that there is more of an effort to turn out Republican votes early this year, I would say that Democrats remain in good relative position.

IA-02: 35,797 Dem., 21,400 Rep., 14,406 Ind.

In IA-02, the Democratic ballot request advantage is 14,397.  Their early/abentee ballot advantage in 2006 was 17,044.  Things look generally similar to next door: in IA-03, the Dem advantage is 85.7% of what they had in 2006, in IA-02, the Dem advantage is 84.5% of what they had in 2006.

Of note, IA-02 has Johnson County, where there has been a spike in turn out of Independents: 2,000 more have requested early ballots compared to the final totals in the county in 2006.  It is likely that many are college students, lacking partisan identification, spurred to vote by the 21+ in bars initiative.  This may give a slight advantage to Loebsack that he might not otherwise have.

I'm not really worried about these seats going Republican, personally.

BTW
The early/absentee advantages I give above are election day numbers.  There's still plenty of time for Dems to get to those levels.  Is so happens that the Dem advantage in IA-03 one week ago was only 6,500.  In fact, to me it seems likely that their advantage will be at 2006 levels or above by election day.
[ Parent ]
I'd like to know
what sort of levels of voting indicate a collapse on the part of the Democrats. It may be difficult to say with any degree of accuracy, but as an educated guess too much to ask for? It's hard to know where these elections are headed, particularly since many of them are bound to be very close, but so far, it seems we are either doing okay or doing very well, both in general and compared to previous elections.

I will say, I think it's a little strange that people are comparing 2008. Michael McDonald of George Mason, whom a lot of people have made reference to when talking about early voting, compares what is happening now to 2008. Maybe there is a good reason to do so, but it seems much more relevant to compare this year to 2006. I kind of feel like the onus is on him to explain why his benchmark is okay.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Did some volunteering...
at the Florida Democratic Party office yesterday, just thought I'd share some of what I saw.

about one out of every 7 registered Dem (a few Indies that voted for Obama) answered the phone, and almost all of them said they were strongly in favor of Sink, with only a few undecided, and non for Scott that I saw.

For Senate, there was a HUGE division between Meek and Crist, with maybe 55% for Crist and 45% for Meek (I think only one for Rubio that I saw.)

And most of the registered Dems said they were voting for the entire ticket (CFO, AG, Agr Commissioner).

In the digest from Friday, FL Dems are being outpaced pretty significantly in early voting compared to 2006 and 2008. What people are failing to recognize is the huge number of Dems and  Dem-leaning indies who are undecided/torn on Meek/Crist or waiting to see if one of them will drop out (like Imeand my roomates are doing.) This Crist/Meek division seems to be what is causing the bad early voting numbers IMHO.

This coming week, expect better Dem turnout numbers in early voting (Wed, Thurs, Fri) as it becomes clear Meek and Crist won't budge. On election day, I expect Dem turnout will be significantly higher than Republican turnout, since a large number of GOPers have already voted and knew who they wanted, while the Democrats wait and break last minute for Crist/Meek. Just hope its enough to drag Alex Sink across the line.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Afternoon Edition) | 121 comments

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