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SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 22, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT


  • AR-Sen (Mason-Dixon): Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 34, John Boozman (R) 55

  • CA-Sen (Tarrance Group for NRSC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44, Carly Fiorina (R) 44

  • CT-Sen, CT-Gov (PDF) (Suffolk): Richard Blumenthal (D) 57, Linda McMahon (R) 39; Dan Malloy (D) 49, Tom Foley (R) 38 (PDF of crosstabs)

    • Rather unusually, Suffolk included Blumenthal & Malloy twice in their head-to-head questions: once as the Dem candidate, and once as the Working Families Party candidate. Each got about 3-4% as the WFP candidate. I've never seen a pollster do this in New York, where the practice of fusion voting is best known.

  • IL-Gov (PPP): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 41 (35), Bill Brady (R) 42 (42)

  • FL-22 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Ron Klein (D-inc) 44, Allen West (R) 47

  • MA-04 (Fleming & Associates for WPRI): Barney Frank (D-inc) 49, Sean Bielat (R) 37

  • MD-01 (Monmouth): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 42, Andy Harris (R) 53

  • MI-03 (EPIC/MRA): Pat Miles (D) 37, Justin Amash (R) 46

  • MN-01 (Grove Insight (D) for Project New West): Tim Walz (D-inc) 50, Randy Demmer (R) 34

  • MS-04 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steven Palazzo): Gene Taylor (D-inc) 41, Steven Palazzo (R) 43

  • NC-11 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for DCCC): Heath Shuler (D-inc) 54, Jeff Miller 39

  • NM-02 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steve Pearce): Harry Teague (D-inc) 41, Steve Pearce (R) 50

  • NY-20 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Chris Gibson): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42, Chris Gibson 44

  • OR-05 (SurveyUSA for KATU-TV): Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 41, Scott Bruun (R) 51

    • Note: Among the 10% who have already voted, Schrader leads 47-46. This continues a pattern we've seen in other SUSA polls (and also some, but not all, of the early voting numbers by party registration).

  • PA-06 (Monmouth): Manan Trivedi (D) 44, Jim Gerlach (R-inc) 54

  • PA-17 (Susquehanna for ABC27 News): Tim Holden (D-inc) 58, Justin Argall (R) 28

  • TX-23 (OnMessage (R) for Quico Canseco): Ciro Rodriguez (D-inc) 39, Quico Canseco (R) 45

  • VA-02 (PDF) (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Scott Rigell): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell 46 (R)

  • VA-05 (Benenson Strategy Group (D) for Tom Perriello): Tom Perriello (D-inc) 46, Rob Hurt (R) 47

  • WA-08 (SurveyUSA for KING-TV): Suzan DelBene (D) 45 (45), Dave Reichert (R-inc) 52 (52)
    		•
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition) | 240 comments
    Nitpick
    You forgot to include Rigell's number (46) in the VA-02 poll.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    Also it's Bill Brady in IL-Gov; Bob Brady's in PA-01 (eom)

    [ Parent ]
    hmm
    Rigell being up just 5 in his internal is pretty lame. I still have that seat as R pickup.

    41, Ind, CA-05
    [ Parent ]
    Charlie Melancon
    is surging, dare I say steamrolling his way to a 3-point deficit in a Dem internal.  This seems counterintuitive.

    http://www.politico.com/static...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    Who helps turnout? Undecideds?
    Has Breaux endorsed Melancon?  I can't imagine he's pleased with Vitter's shenanigans.  

    Is there anyone nationally who can help Melncon with the the undecideds (I'm assuming Obama and Clinton have positives and negatives in LA)

    [ Parent ]
    Michelle Obama?

    [ Parent ]
    Possibly Phil Bredesen
    Governor of Tennessee. I assume there are enough Louisiana voters who know who he is, and he's pretty popular and centrist, from what I gather

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
    [ Parent ]
    The only thing I can say about that is that
    if this were 2006, he would be leading and this race would probably be in the bag by now.  Unfortunately, it's 2010 and the luxuries associated with assuming the wind behind your back is just not there.  If the DSCC had more money compared to the odds its facing this year with all the IEs from corporations, this race may well have been competitive.  Again, unfortunately, we could just as easily go this cycle without picking up a single Senate seat (although Conway's numbers are encouraging, and Carnahan may yet show signs of life), this race perhaps ranking much lower than our other prime races that are still seeing Dems trailing.
    [ Parent ]
    The DSCC should cut out CT
    And go for NC.  A million isn't much there but Burr's numbers are so weak its really worth a shot.
    [ Parent ]
    NC is kind of dead at this point although I agree that it could've been competitive
    The main problem here aside from the DSCC grudge match with Marshall over not getting Cunningham was that Marshall wasn't raising enough money to be able to justify spending cash here.  The DSCC cannot "carry" a race; it can only put a race over the top.  Even though Fischer was leading marginally and had a little bit of cash, it would've been ludicrous for the DSCC to try and match Portman's enormous CoH.  Similarly, Marshall just wasn't raking in the dough, and expecting the DSCC to carry is just too much when it has money to throw at competitive races that we need to hold.
    [ Parent ]
    Well she sure is now
    She raised 1.22m in the 3Q, compared to Burr's 1.6m.  He has 2.9 on hand and she had 822k.  Enough?  Not quite.

    But, after MONTHS of using paid actors (the two old men - one was in a pawn shop and foot fungus commercial also) in his ads, Burr hasn't been able to put this away.

    Plus, as everybody has mentioned - why the HECK is CT sill considered a freakin' toss-up?  That money could go so much further in North Carolina.

    28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

    [ Parent ]
    sure the DSCC can carry an entire race
    Maybe not with a Christine O'Donnel candidate but with the NC race, they could easily buy the race for Marshall.  I'd rather them spend their money on other races certainly as Marshall doesn't really deserve it, but I think this could be KY-2004 or NC-8 2006 where the Dem gets ignored for other races and where we end up kicking ourselves for not throwing money at it to see what happened.

    And with the OFA's grassroots ability in NC, this race I think wouldve been a NC-2008 redux.  But alas, that was never going to happen in this political environment.

    [ Parent ]
    if it were 2006 and 2008
    Burr would be one of the most vulnerable Senators right now. But in a year like this, he's safe. Marshall hasn't led in one poll the whole campaign except for one internal polls with an absurd amount of undecideds.
    [ Parent ]
    wha?!
    That's damn good even for Dem internal.
    [ Parent ]
    TX-30
    Via Drudge, out of all places, GOP candidate in TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson D+27): Violent overthrow of government option is on the table.....

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    Excellent
    I wonder if this can be leveraged into a gotcha moment against our favorite secessionist, Gov. Goodhair...
    [ Parent ]
    Not excellent
    I realize this site is about elections and campaigns and that this kind of craziness can be electorally bad for Republicans, but the fact that a candidate would actually talk about a revolution if he and people like him lose at the polls is extremely harmful for democracy.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    There are a LOT of batshit crazy, militia-curious types out there
    And I'd rather have them publicly discredited than building a "movement" under the radar.  The harm to democracy has already been done, it's simply latent.
    [ Parent ]
    On the other hand
    TX-30 is not exactly a district where advocating violent overthrow of the government is a vote-getter.  I wonder if that GOP candidate has actually ever set foot in South Dallas.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
    [ Parent ]
    Actually
    that's what makes it all the more bizarre. I'm from TX-32 originally, so I know who the man is. He's a well-respected pastor of a church in Fair Park that reaches out to the homeless/underprivileged. I was pretty surprised he would make a comment like that; he's the most legitimate, well-funded challenger EBJ has had in a long time.  

    20, GOP, NH-02
    [ Parent ]
    One
    good thing that will come out of Republicans winning the presidency in 2012: all this violent overthrow talk / guns at political rallies / keep the government out of my medicare nonsense will go away.
    [ Parent ]
    You're already predicting that?
    Who are you supposing would win?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Eh...
    Nah, instead they'd switch to shrieking "traitor" at liberals and progressives and Democrats every five minutes.

    If that were to come to pass.

    Which I wouldn't guess upon right now, especially if the Republican-led House overreaches and tries to shut down government and investigate every last thing to the hilt and try to bring us back the 19th century and such. Which given how their campaigning suggests they will.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    Never good to make predictions of the next cycle before the current one ends
    Nobody expected the House or Senate to be in play in January of 2009, and look how quickly the political environment turned on its head. Politics is a fickle maiden.....you make assumptions about her and she will spite you. So I would be careful making predictions about the President's re-election, as many folks counted Clinton out in 94.... and we all know how that Dole/Kemp ticket worked out.

    Democrat: TN-8
    [ Parent ]
    they're not making a prediction about the 2012 results
    They're making a prediction for what happened if a certain 2012 scenario played out.
    [ Parent ]
    Sorry,
    I meant "that WOULD come out of Republicans winning."
    I am not predicting a GOP win.
    [ Parent ]
    Scotty SD: Noem by 5
    Noem
    The traffic violations seem to only have given Herseth Sandlin a small bump, but when the dust settles, people don't care so much for running a stop sign, ya know, many of us already did that too.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    Big mistake to trust Rasmussen at face value......
    We're close now, we'll see if Scotty is accurate or off.  I suspect off.  He's not moving his numbers toward the mean this year, as Nate Silver pointed out.

    And Noem didn't just "run a stop sign," she has a long history of egregious violations.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Scandals
    When will the congressmen learn that there are 2 types of scandals, one is that could totally undermine your opponent, this is what you're supposed to put out early and harp on it often, then there are scandals that make big noise for a short time and have a temporary big impact, these stuff you put out the week before the election, not 3 months before, I don't think the Herseth Snadlin campaign manager is too smart.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    Seriously, enough
    It's gotten to be that you and a few other users have decided to make SSP your home.  While that's fine, EVERY comment of yours is a negative thing about a Dem candidate or campaign or poll. (Herseth's campaign manager isn't smart, can't trust Dem internals but can trust rasmussen, etc.)

    While I personally regret there isn't an intelligent right-leaning board like SSP is to left-leaning world.  I personally find it to be a disservice to what SSP offers that you bring in an anti-Dem vibe to every post.  I also don't like the fact it seems every other poster is always wrong and you seem to never be.  (You're using the wrong polls, can't follow the money, Dorgan would have lost to every other person in North Dakota, etc).

    We have several fantastic GOP or right-leaning members on this board (GOPVOTER, MassGOP, some others) who seem to be able to discuss things a little more evenly.  I speak only for myself and not the mods, but this is a progressive site, if you don't liekt eh progressive view of things maybe elsewhere you could post.  

    I seriously and finding you and Mark to be somewhat trollish in your negativity towards every DEM candidate and every poster on this site who disagrees with you.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, C'mon!


    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    I'm not one to cry "concern troll"
    but the way you cite GOP polls without linking to them or mentioning that they are GOP polls and then declaring that the Democrats are screwed isn't going to make you many friends here, I promise.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    exactly what i was thinking
    When you can build a whole narrative around it, that's when you start a few months out on the negatives.  A history of traffic violations is week before type of stuff.
    [ Parent ]
    Driving record
    While those traffic violations may be dismissed in most places in SD it is taken much more seriously. SSH's GOP predecessor was convicted of manslaughter in 2003 or 2004 that occurred through reckless driving. Thus it is relatively fresh in voter's minds and does not create a nice flashback for them. Whether the (D) behind SSH's name is enough to get her booted remains to be seen.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    SHS, not SSH

    [ Parent ]
    And he had Pomeroy down 52-42 in ND-AL, so on election night...
    ...if SHS wins and/or Pomeroy keeps it close, Scotty is going to have a lot of egg on his face.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen on the ALs
    C'mon! There is no other public polls on both of these races, Herseth Sandlin only once released an internal poll showing her up and that was right after the scandal, Pomeroy has never even released an internal poll showing him up! And I don't know why you can't understand that in a wave year, a Dem can be booted in a heavy GOP district, see MS-4, as for Pomeroy, he's WAY more liberal than ND.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    if he's so much more liberal than ND
    why has he been re-elected eight times including in 1994?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Pomeroy being re-elected time after time
    A few decades ago, ND was much more Democratic than it is today, second in most of the years, GOP controlled congress and they there was a good Dem cycle, but on this year, he's being battered for voting for almost everything in the Democratic agenda under a Democratic President and Congress in a very GOP state.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    North Dakota nearly went for Obama in 2008
    If anything, that trend is being reversed since the Dakotas and Montana were second tier picks for Obama to invest money in during his election.  You're neglecting the fact that Pomeroy won in '94 after Dems lost seats but still controlled Congress in '92.  The dynamics from that simply don't favor a then-freshman Democrat in a blood red district winning at all.  

    That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if Pomeroy lost at all, given the climate.  However, there is no substantial reason to consistently see him losing by such a wide margin when he's got 18 years of seniority in a state that depends very much on pork, and which had no qualms electing him in very good GOP years where a junior Republican would probably hold much more influence in Congress in the interests of the state.

    [ Parent ]
    Not that close
    McCain: 53%
    Obama: 44%

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

    (Map colors are reversed.)

    [ Parent ]
    Ironically...
    North Dakota as a state is probably the most socialist of the 50, with a central bank and an economy heavily reliant on cooperatives.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Lots of Scandinavians there.
    North Dakota's also quite dovish, which certainly hurt McCain in '08.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
    [ Parent ]
    Your polling info is off.
    ND-AL

    Garin, Hart, Yang (D) 9/12-9/14 - Pomeroy 46, Berg 44

    Both parties are spending pretty big in ND, so a 10-point lead seems preposterous, although I don't necessarily believe that Pomeroy leads.

    SD-AL

    Anzalone (D) 8/31-9/2 - Herseth-Sandlin 50, Noem 41

    Bennet Petts Blumenthal (D) 9/22-9/23 - Herseth Sandlin 51, Noem 38

    Dems just started spending in SD.  I suspect they were feeling secure for awhile and are starting to get a little nervous now because Noem has raised a lot of money and may be making a race of it.  I would guess Dems are seeing a smaller Herseth-Sandlin lead right now.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Internal AL polls
    Thanks for posting the internal polls! But, if you adjust for the Nate Silver internal poll rule, you'll see that at that time, Rasmussen showed the same numbers for both races! Both races have moved in the mean time, no new internal polls.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    I thought SSP had gotten over the
    "internal poll rule" BS.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    And if my grandmother had wheels
    she'd be a wagon.  

    Rasmussen had Herseth-Sandlin up 2 during the period between the two Dem polls with 9 and 13 point leads (not within 5-6 of either poll, particularly the latter).  Then Rasmussen had Noem up 3 just over a week after the DCCC poll with Herseth-Sandlin up 13.  His polling is not consistent with the Dem internals, to say the least.  Nor is it consistent with national Republicans spending big money here and Dems holding off until recently.    

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    I'm just remembering how bad polls in the Dakotas have been...
    On the eve of Election Day 2008, polls showed then-Sen. Obama in a statistical tie in North Dakota. Obviously, he didn't win it.

    I wouldn't be shocked by any result this time around.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    Noem
    You're also not folowing the numbers! Noem is outraising Herseth Sandlin by more than 2 to 1, and has more than double cash on hand.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    Are you talking to me?
    Because you replied to your own comment.  Are you accusing yourself of "not following the numbers?"

    If you are talking to me, I know exactly what the two candidates have raised and even referenced Noem's strong fundraising above as a reason the DCCC finally started spending here this week.  So, if you're talking to me, what makes you think I'm "not following the numbers?"

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Oh My!!
    Just had to get it on a right place on the thread....

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    you arent the first nor will you be the last
    This thread reads like an intellectual version of Mean Girls
    [ Parent ]
    You've got Mean Girls on the brain
    Didn't you call someone Gretchen Weiner the other day? Not that I mind or anything. Just wondering if you realized that...

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
    [ Parent ]
    rasmussen should be treated as a Republican internal as well
    You are newer here but there is a reason we here at SSP put Rasmussen polls at the bottom of the totem pole; they produce narratives and not polls.  Always the first to show some crazy big shift and always the last to fall in line with the others once their outliers are proven wrong.  They are little more than a Republican polling firm trying to make their party look as good as possible.

    Does anyone else ever pay for Rasmussen pulse polls save for Fox anyone know?

    [ Parent ]
    But adjusting is a bad idea
    Because there are internal polls and internal polls. There ones that are terrible and clearly off, like the one that showed Dingell in trouble and then there's ones that completely nail the race (I remember the TN Senate polls in 06 being fairly accurate, but I might be wrong). I can't remember an Anzalone Liszt poll in the previous cycles that ended up being totally off. I'd trust them even more than Rasmussen, and I say that as someone who tends to have faith in Rasmussen's polling, aside from clear outliers.
    [ Parent ]
    Agree on internals, there's no reliable rule on how to treat them except...
    ...throw them into the pile of tea leaves and evaluate them against the totality of available information.  Internals should never be truly trusted or truly distrusted on their own terms, I think either way other information is needed to evaluate their credibility or lack thereof.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Byron Dorgan is way more progressive than him
    And he had no trouble getting elected an re-elected.  Pomeroy is closer to Conrad than he is to Dorgan.
    [ Parent ]
    Dorgan
    He retired for a reason! He wasn't going to be re-elected! By 5 pts to another GOPer, by 20 pts to Hoeven.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    That is somewhat presumptuous
    at the time Dorgan was losing in the polls, so was Harry Reid.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    also I don't remember any Rs being polled besides Hoeven.


    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Reid also got the gift of Sharron Angle
    I have no doubt that Dorgan would have closed the gap by running a good campaign, but Hoeven or even a generic R would be a lot tougher to come back on than Angle. Harry Reid is not an Irishman, but he's got the luck of one.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    I don't see it as luck
    The Reid camp has been in full swing since early on in the primaries, and attacked Lowden from every which way, especially on the chickens-for-checkups stuff. They helped Angle secure the primary victory.

    Coons, on the other hand, is one lucky man.

    [ Parent ]
    Retire
    Regardless of his reason, and losing to Hoeven would have been no disgrace since he's extremely popular and relatively moderate, Dorgan won every race he ran, including 2004, not a bad year for Republicans.  So, Pomeroy, who's more conservative than Dorgan, is not too liberal for ND.  He's just not as popular, and has had close elections before.

    But I've seen enough of your posts to know where you're coming from.

    [ Parent ]
    Proof for that assertion, please
    Specifically the one claiming Dorgan's certain loss "by 5 pts to another GOPer."  Firstly, DSCC would have fought like hell to keep him; secondly, it is hubris to think one is certain to win an admitted five-point race; thirdly, who would this brilliant GOP candidate be?
    [ Parent ]
    Dorgan
    If Feingold is likely to lose in a D+2 state, ND is R+10

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    Dammit!
    I hate it when I forget that all elections are decided by PVI! Stupid me!

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    he never said all elections were decided by PVI
    Furthermore, PVI matters quite a bit outside of the South.  Kanjorski won in 2008 solely because of PVI.
    [ Parent ]
    Not really
    PVI doesn't mean presidential coattails in a single cycle.  Kanjorksi has held the seat for decades and won by far larger amounts than PVI in prior cycles and less than PVI in 2008.  If you do any sort of correlation analysis you can find that Kanjorski's victory margin doesn't synch up with PA or his districts PVI in any way shape or form.

    In fact, in 2008, for the 5 counties that Kanjo's district covers, he outperformed Obama in 2 and performed within 2 points of Obama in the the other 3.  Kanjo might have benefited from increased turnout, but that isn't what PVI represents.

    [ Parent ]
    Come on
    If there's something I see on SSP almost every day it's how important the candidate is. Saying "so-and-so is having trouble in a D+X+10 district so the guy in the D+X district is screwed!" is poor analysis at best.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Walt Minnick is likely to win in an R+18 district. Next (eom)

    [ Parent ]
    yeah and the guy who ran in 2006
    Lost by 5% because of a PVI he couldn't overcome.  It took Sali a term to prove his stupidity to make it so someone else could topple an R+18.
    [ Parent ]
    I don't think Hoeven would have run
    if Dorgan weren't retiring.  Actually I remember Daily Kos showing a poll that had Dorgan leading Hoeven back in '09, before Dorgan announced that he was going to retire.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
    [ Parent ]
    Dorgan only retired
    because he knew that Hoeven had decided to run.
    [ Parent ]
    There were two polls back then, if I recall correctly.
    One showing Dorgan leading Hoeven by a ton, and the other showing Hoeven leading Dorgan by a ton.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    yeah, but that poll was conducted by Research 2000...
    n/t

    20, Ind, PA-14
    [ Parent ]
    Obviously you have no clue what you are talking about.
    Do you remember who the most popular Senator was in the country besides Ted Kennedy?

    Do you know how much people like Byron Dorgan?

    I'm sure he would have beaten Duane Sand.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Someone on the Great Orange Satan pointed this out which I thought was funny...
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    The polling question for the House race:

    1* If the 2010 election for United States Senate were held today would you vote for Republican John Hoeven or Democrat Tracy Potter? (Please note that we split the survey to rotate the order of the candidate names, so while half will hear the Republican candidate first, the other half hears the Democrat mentioned first.)

    I'll give Rasmussen the benefit of the doubt on this one but that's kind of funny nonetheless.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't get it.
    What's funny?

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, my question, too. Rotating the choices is standard in polling and indeed...
    ...is one of the few polling conventions Rasmussen actually appears to follow.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    guys
    they asked for the senate candidates...for the house seat

    18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
    [ Parent ]
    Doh! OK, I totally missed that! Thanks! (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    The previous Rassmussen Poll was Berg +3
    So, given that there are undecideds still to factor in as well, I wouldn't say that keeping in close makes him look bad.
    [ Parent ]
    Dingell by 17
    http://www.freep.com/article/2...

    Posted this in the preceding thread, but it might have gotten lost in the shuffle.

    This depresses any real hope of picking up WA-8 or PA-6
    If dems were up that much we'd consider them likely D at worse. That OR-05 really surprised me. It seems like Survey USA has had a Republican lean this year but even so a 9 point gap for a longtime incumbant is scary.

    MD-01: Harris seems to have finally put some distance Kratovil. Can't say it really is that surprising. It is more surprising it took Harris that long to get ahead in which should be a sure pick GOP pick-up.

    I think Gilcrest endorsing O'Malley hurt Kratovil. Now no one thinks of Gilcrest as a voice of reason Republican. He looks like more of an average left of center guy.  

    Regarding OR-05
    Rep. Schrader is a freshman.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Remember, it's SUSA...
    SUSA has probably been THE. WORST. OUTLIER! of this cycle. I'm having a VERY hard time believing this OR-05 poll. Why do I have a feeling I'll see more R's than D's and young voters going overwhelmingly for the Republican?

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
    [ Parent ]
    I'm from Oregon and I have family in OR-05
    Let me explain, briefly, why this poll is bunk.

    1. The Willamette River Valley is blue, blue, blue. Sure, there are evangelicals and libertarians and whatnot, and you can see political signs for every faction from the GOP to the Libertarian Party to the Democrats along I-5 running between Portland and Salem. But it's essentially blue. It's reliably Democratic, famously so. And every two years, there's chatter about the GOP taking this seat, and every two years, the Democrat wins by a few points.

    2. College students in western Oregon vote heavily Democratic and are more politically active than in other states because of Oregon's mail-in voting (a potent antidote to voter apathy). There are several colleges in OR-05, and I expect Rep. Schrader to run up impressive margins among college-age voters in cities like Salem and Corvallis.

    Riptide of millennial conservatives? Maybe in Tennessee. Not in Oregon. More Republicans than Democrats? It's Oregon.

    I want some of what SurveyUSA is smoking in the Pacific Northwest, but sadly, Atty. Gen. Holder has already decided the federal government will continue to prosecute for that no matter what states rule.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    This is true

    every two years, there's chatter about the GOP taking this seat, and every two years, the Democrat wins by a few points.

    It's what gives me hope that Schrader can hang on.

    [ Parent ]
    Part of Oregon is Effectively Idaho
    Now most of that area is in OR-02, but does any of that (culturally) spill over into OR-05? It doesn't look like it on a map but I don't know Oregon real well.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03
    [ Parent ]
    Decidedly not
    There are at least two Oregons, geopolitically speaking, and the divide runs roughly down the spine of the Cascade Range. OR-05 is in western Oregon. Now, the further south you get in western Oregon (with the exception of a deep-blue pocket around Eugene), the more conservative you get, but OR-05 essentially covers a purplish-blue swath of the Willamette River Valley. It's not as sapphire-blue as Eugene (which provides a heavy counterweight against conservatives in southern Oregon in Rep. DeFazio's OR-04) or Portland (reports of Rep. Wu's political demise aren't just exaggerated, they're absolutely batshit insane), but it's Democratic territory.

    Regardless of what SurveyUSA says, I would be surprised to see Bruun pull off the win. Oregon is blue, OR-05 is blue, and Kitzhaber will have coattails.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    Sao:
    I've got a small question for you. Every Monday I faithfully watch a show on TLC called "Little People, Big World," which takes place in Helvetia, Oregon. Now granted, that's in OR-01, near Hillsboro, a bit of a distance from Portland - but would you consider that part of the state (Washington County) more conservative and/or Republican than OR-O5?
    [ Parent ]
    I was just there last month
    Rural Washington County apparently loves Rob Cornilles; he seems to have at least one huge sign (and many smaller signs) per mile on US-26 from the end of the freeway section all the way to the coast.  Fortunately, the blue Portland suburbs of Beaverton, Hillsboro, and Tigard dominate the county and OR-01 as a whole population-wise.  While OR-05 has Corvallis and Salem pulling it left, it has more rural constituents than OR-01 (20% vs. 13%) and some of the Clackamas County suburbs it takes in (Lake Oswego, West Linn) are less Democratic than those in Washington County.
    [ Parent ]
    No, absolutely not
    You can find conservatives anywhere, including in Washington County, but what I tend to find is that in the Willamette River Valley and northern Oregon (along the Columbia River Gorge, which skews fairly blue even toward the state's east), Republicans are an extremely vocal minority. Lots of signs, bumper stickers, etc., even in very, very liberal neighborhoods. The far-left crowd tends to be similarly demonstrative; back in 2008, I doubt any major city had as many bumper stickers and yard signs for Rep. Kucinich's presidential campaign as I saw in Portland literally every day (I moved to Maryland just a few months before the election).

    Hillsboro - where Intel has several major campuses - isn't quite as ardently Democratic as, say, Beaverton or Tigard, but it's fairly blue (relatively high Latino population helps pull it left), probably more so than West Linn or Lake Oswego in Clackamas County. The whole Tri-County area (Oregon's share of the Portland-Vancouver metro) is pretty Democratic, but it tends to be more so closer to the city, less so the further you get.

    Because of the strict zoning ordinances, Portland is a very well contained city with a fairly neat constellation of suburbs, and beyond (and often between) the suburbs is mostly just forestland and agricultural zones.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    Are Portland Zoning Regulations.....
    ....driving the area Republicans into Clark County, Washington?  I remember that county being Dukakis country before turning over relatively decisively to Bush in 2000 and 2004.
    [ Parent ]
    Not sure exactly...
    Wouldn't surprise me, though.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Nate Silver wrote an interesting piece about Oregon during the '08 primaries
    By whatever metric he was using, Oregon Democrats were the second most liberal of any Democrats in the country, and Oregon Republicans were something like the third most conservative of any in the country. Must make for an interesting dynamic in the state legislature.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Kitzbaher "coattails"
    If you believe that polls (Rasmussen SUSA PPP), then even if Kitzbaher wins, it'll be by a few pts only, that means that Dudley would win OR-5!

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    No, it doesn't.


    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Strangely...
    Riptide of millennial conservatives? Maybe in Tennessee. Not in Oregon.

    Strangely, I don't even know of that many millennial conservatives in Tennessee.  Then again, that could have to do with the crowd I tend to hang around with (urban, college-educated.)  But more than a few people my age who I knew in high school or college have become at least somewhat moderate after getting out from the influence of their parents and living in the real world.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

    [ Parent ]
    i pretty much just ignore all of their district polls
    Where the district features well educated, upper middle class techy-oriented people.  Anything in CA, WA, OR, MN or suburban is automatic crap to me.
    [ Parent ]
    MD-01
    If this is real, guess we have to root for O'Malley and the Democrats to be able to redistrict the odious Andy Harris out of existence in 2 years.

    Incidentally, early voting in Maryland starts today.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    MD-1
    Maryland was already gerrymandered in '02 to defeat 2 GOP incumbents, I don't see how you can gerrymander it more to erase two heavily GOP districts in the state.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    [ Parent ]
    Major caveat
    What is now MD-08 was created as a Dem vote sink to knock off Connie Morella. With her gone, that district can be made less Democratic. Many great 7-1 maps have been posted on SSP.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    It's Surprisingly Not Difficult
    The short answer is there are lots of surplus Democratic votes in the DC suburbs. For the long answer, see any of about a half dozen diaries on the topic.

    It was left that way in 2002 because beating Connie Morella required a much more Democratic MD-08 than would be necessary now. Not just because Morella is gone but because Montgomery County is even more allergic to the GOP than it was a decade ago.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    Totally agree with you. The DC suburbs have grown incredibly fast the last decade and have a very heavy Democratic lean to them. Across the Potomac I am curious to see how it impacts the new Congressional districts in my state. The Virginia GOP definitely wants to protect Frank Wolf but they may realize that it's only a matter of time when his district and Rick Boucher's districts will retire and likely flip. Even if Kratovil loses he can make a comeback in 2012 and his worry would be a challenge from his left with Obama at the top of the ticket.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    I expect an incumbent protection Virginia map
    Swapping precincts between Gerry Connelly and Frank Wolf to strengthen both.
    [ Parent ]
    MD and VA
    MD-01: Obama wouldn't be a worry per se for Kratovil in a 2012 primary as Obama's unlikely to have much of a contested primary. There'd be something of a worry where some more conservative Democrats would switch registration to Republican vote in their Presidential primary I suppose, leaving behind a group of Democrats more likely to support a left-of-Kratovil primary opponent.

    Assuming that a gerrymander that splits the Shore is a non-starter you can get to a 59-41 Obama voting MD-01 if you don't care about how ugly it looks. (If you do care, you can still get to about 55-45.)

    (And yes, you can also do this without adding much in terms of Republican hope in MD-02, MD-03, or MD-05.)

    The Dems still have the VA Senate, right? That would give them a seat at the table. I'd think that horse-trading that ends up in something similar to the status quo was the likeliest outcome. If the GOP had a trifecta and were in a gambling mood, they might try to restore the 1994-2006 of having 2 of the 3 NoVA districts, but that could definitely backfire on them and they could end up shut out of the region (other than the small portion of the region that's in VA-01.)

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    VA
    You are correct that the Dems have the Senate so they will have a seat at the table. I don't expect a lot of changes with the maps but reality is that NoVa is growing extremely fast and southern Virginia is losing people. Like Emily said their plan will likely be to strengthen Connolly and Wolf. Unfortunately there is little that can be done to gerrymander Cantor out of a job.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    I don't get Ehrlich's strategy...
    Does he really think he can bite into Gov. O'Malley's MontCo margins enough to win? His best shot is probably major GOTV in Frederick County, Western Maryland, and the Eastern Shore, yet he's campaigning in the D.C. suburbs, where the word "Republican" is practically an epithet.

    I don't get it.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    Two Words: Education Funding
    The minute he had to admit how he was going to pay for all the tax breaks he was going to dish out, he became toxic in Montgomery County.

    I understood his summer strategy. Forget the hot button culture war stuff, because the people big into that were already gonna vote GOP anyway.  Focus on the jobs and the taxes and the economy, especially the unpopular sales tax hike. Focus on Montgomery and Howard, as you'll win the peripheral areas (the Shore, the Panhandle, and, to a lesser extent, Southern MD) anyway, you've got a good base in most of the Baltimore burbs, and Baltimore City and Prince George's are hopeless.  

    But then reality creeped in. For a long time Ehrlich refused to talk about what would happen when revenues were reduced, because he knows that not many people in Maryland buy the supply-sider line. O'Malley had been running ads that hit Ehrlich for coming up with one fee after another to prevent having to implement a broad-based tax hike during his term in office.

    At first, it was about infrastructure planning. He would kill two proposed transit lines, one in the DC burbs, one in Baltimore City/County. (His core voters didn't care since they drive everywhere anyway; maybe a few swing voters cared a little, but most of them don't use a lot of public transit either.) But that didn't add up to much. So he had to admit that he'd be gutting education funding.  



    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    MD-1
    It is actually quite possible to do it. If you swap some of MD-01 with some of the DC and Baltimore suburbs you would likely get a D+ 2-4 district. Not dominating but it would make a huge difference. Harris may be drawn into a district with Roscoe Bartlett and given Barlett's age he may just retire. MD has also moved a lot more Democratic in the last 10 years so it is quite possible to draw a map where there would be one Republican seat.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Latter option would be more effective
    If Maryland wants a semblance of its congressional delegation actually representing people, combining the Eastern Shore with any part of the D.C. suburbs isn't going to pass the laugh test. Combining the Eastern Shore with MD-06, on the other hand, might work. A good drawing might even use US 70 as the southern boundary of the part of the new MD-01 that is now represented by Rep. Bartlett, or even carve out the city of Frederick itself if population is an issue (the city itself doesn't strike me as a major Republican stronghold, even though the county at large generally is).

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    O'Malley was never
    in any real danger. Ehrlich hasn't led in a single public poll the entire campaign. Sure, he's gotten close, but it's not enough. Of course, MD-01 is almost 40 points more GOP than the state. McCain won it by 18 points while Obama won the state by 22 points. Therefore, if O'Malley wins by 5 points, Ehrlich will completely romp in MD-01. So O'Malley coattails will not help Kratovil.
    [ Parent ]
    Not What I Meant
    I've said before that I'd expect O'Malley to be a drag on Kratovil rather than a boost, even bigger than Obama because Obama brought out Democrats in this area (particularly the black vote on the lower portions of the Shore) in a way that O'Malley won't be able to.

    O'Malley's going to win this time on the strength of deep blue Montgomery and Prince George's, and to a lesser extent bluing Howard and Charles Counties.    

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    WA-08 looks gone
    33% of the SUSA sample has already voted, and went for Reichert 53/44.  It's probably gone unless the sample is really off due to the normal SUSA problems.
    [ Parent ]
    This is very interesting in Kentucky
    http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

    President Clinton is rallying once again for Commonwealth Attorney General Jack Conway on 1 November. Apparently they're hoping to seal the deal with high turnout, and Clinton was just such a hit last time...wasn't that just last week?

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    Clinton's the most popular national Dem figure at this point
    I wouldn't be surprised since he actually carried Kentucky once I think.  One of the reasons why I don't begrudge 'SC for hosting Obama later today is because Clinton came here last Friday to do a rally :P
    [ Parent ]
    Twice

    [ Parent ]
    Rand Paul will respond by picking up the phone
    Dubya will arrive to KY and praise the financial security of privatization social security!


    NY-29
    [ Parent ]
    Why did he say that?
    I thought he was being uncharacteristically clever by keeping his mouth shut. But no.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: Finally, an enthusiasm "surge" in early voting...
    So "the enthusiasm gap" is finally materializing? Whoops! It looks like Democrats actually GAINED ground yesterday! I can't wait to see the full Ralston report soon. It always helps to have a break in the rain during voting... Of course, it also helps to have President Obama coming to town. ;-)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
    I've been refreshing twitter like mad waiting for Ralston's
    report.  It looks like Biden's visit might have helped with Dem turnout though which is good news.

    Realistically, doesn't the GOP need to have an advantage at the end of early voting to overcome the Clark Dem vote on election day?

    [ Parent ]
    Here it is...
    Republicans failed to pick up much ground on the sixth day of early voting, with the early voting percentages staying about the same. If mail ballots in Clark are added, the Republicans have just under a 2 percent lead. Democrats have about a 10,000-vote lead in Southern Nevada. It appears that about a quarter of the vote (perhaps more) already is in for the South. In Washoe County, where early voting is not as popular, the Democrats also are slightly behind.

    Another overnight gain of .2 percent. Where is the surge?

    In Washoe, both parties turned about about 200 fewer voters on Thursday, so relatively little change there.

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks.
    CLARK:

    Thursday: Dems, 6,881 Rs, 5,301 rest, 2,310

    Early: Dems, 41,561; Rs, 33,748; rest, 14,016

    Mail: Dems, 9,008; Rs, 7,388; rest, 2,382

    Combined: Dems, 50,569 , Rs, 41,136 rest, 16,261

    WASHOE:

    Ds: 10,239 (11.9 percent)

    Rs: 11,961 (13.7 percent)

    At this rate, the Dems are going to go into election day with a sizable lead. That is going to be hard for the GOP to make up if Clark County Dems turnout.

    [ Parent ]
    Ralston has also been saying
    that 5% would be a typical Republican advantage when early voting concludes (relative to registration). And if that happens, it will be tight but Reid still has a shot.

    Based on six days of early voting, Republicans have a 1.6% advantage. This doesn't count the Washoe mail-in ballots nor rural Nevada, both of which will tilt R but with lower absolute numbers.

    Since we're close to halfway through early voting, it looks extremely unlikely Republicans will exceed a 4% advantage, let alone 5. So these numbers look pretty solid for us - so far.

    Plus, Obama's visit today could further mobilize Democrats - hopefully without also mobilizing the other side. We'll see!

    [ Parent ]
    I agree that I have a hard time seeing a 5% advantage
    for the GOP when early voting ends based on the numbers so far. Of course, the question marks are going to be how the independent voters vote and whether there is any crossover vote from GOP voters voting for Reid. With the significant # of GOP endorsements for Reid, I'd guess we'll see 1-3% crossover for Reid at minimum.
    [ Parent ]
    PPP's last poll
    showed Reid pulling in 11% of Republicans to Angle's 7% of Dems.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    [ Parent ]
    The totality of polling shows a couple things......
    First, Reid is pulling more crossovers than Angle, by a percentage margin of mid-single digits.

    Second, Angle is winning indies by a margin in the ballpark of 10 points.

    There are variances in these things across different polls, but the totality suggests those two things.  And it adds up to roughly a wash.

    Harry is doing well to highlight "Republicans for Reid" to try to keep his crossover support higher than Angle's.  She's really done nothing at all to draw Dems, she's going to get only those Dems who would vote for any Republican this particular year.

    With indies, it's a given Harry will lose a majority, he just needs to keep the margin down.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    How many are expected at the rally tonight?


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    NC Dems gaining ground slowly but surely
    Statewide things still aren't pretty but African-Americans increased their turnout from 16.5 to 16.7% yesterday.  Democrats are still only at a 44-38% advantage in the turnout pie.  Registration-wise, the Dems have a 45-32% margin.  Of course, being the south, all of our Democrats can't be counted on.  Plus, this clearly shows a major enthusiasm gap for the GOP.

    On a macro level, it aint purdy.  Brunswick County, in the heart of McIntyre's district, and New Hanover (Wilmington) are still turning out way more Republicans than Democrats and worse, Brunswick County already has a 12% overall turnout.  Compare that to Wake County, Raleigh, or heavily-Democratic Halifax County, which each have just over 1% overall turnout.

    On a micro level, a handful of our legislative districts look decent.  There are places were Democrats a larger piece of the turnout pie than they are of the registration pie (if that makes sense).  Unfortunately, overall turnout in those places is not great.  

    28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

    It honestly wouldn't shock me
    to learn that old school North Carolina Democrats who are still registered as such but who have been voting Republican for years simply think of themselves as Republicans. Does the data so far give us any way to distinguish it, or is it like exit polling where it depends on voter response? If it is the latter, then I am not surprised if the numbers are much closer to what the actual party breakdown is compared to what the voter registration numbers suggest.

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Much like my 94.5 year old granddad
    They're still registered Democrats.  So, this isn't about what they think of themselves, its about whats on the books.  The disparity is much worse down east I think than in the west; I'd say we'll pull 70-75% of Dems down east and more like 80-85% in the west.  Of course, this is out of nowhere that I pick these solid numbers :)

    28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
    [ Parent ]
    NY Gov
    Marist has Cuomo ahead by 23, 60-37.

    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1...

    Scotty R, suprise!, has him ahead by only 14.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    At least Ras has him ahead

    [ Parent ]
    An interesting thing with Rasmussen
    is he seems to have not a Republican bias, but an ultraconservative bias.  Tea Party types like Rick Scott, Carl Paladino, and Sharron Angle have fared really well in Rasmussen polling.

    I suspect it has to do with the one-day samples with no callbacks.  An overabundance of fired up, conservative teabaggers eager to voice their opinions on politics to an automated robot voice.  Self-selection bias.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Republican vs. Ultraconservative bias
    Is there a difference?  ; )
    [ Parent ]
    I completely agree.


    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    This makes me...
    ...want to go back and test Rasmussen by finding races that have Dems winning, and comparing their Ras lead to their leads in other polls.
    [ Parent ]
    AR-Gov is a race...
    ...that can be used for this purpose.

    CNN/Time,Oct. 15-19: Beebe (D) 62%, Keet (R) 35%. D+27
    Reuters/Ipsos, Sept. 19-19: Beebe (D) 55%, Keet (R) 37%. D+18

    Rasmussen, Sept. 30: Beebe (D) 51%, Keet (R) 41%. D+10

    DE-Sen is another race that can be used.

    SurveyUSA, Oct. 11-12: Coons (D) 54%, O'Donnell (R) 33%. D+21
    CNN/Time, Oct. 8-12: Coons (D) 57%, O'Donnell (R) 38%. D+19
    Fairleigh Dickinson, Sept. 27-Oct. 3: Coons (D) 53%, O'Donnell (R) 36%. D+17
    U of Delaware, Sept. 16-30: Coons (D) 61%, O'Donnell (R) 37%. D+24

    Rasmussen, Oct. 14: Coons (D) 51%, O'Donnell (R) 40%. D+11

    [ Parent ]
    AR GOV
    You can throw this in as well:

    http://www.kspr.com/news/local...

    [ Parent ]
    FL Voting
    GOP continuing to hold early lead in FL voting; both absentee and early votes.

    http://www.tampabay.com/news/p...

    Any other year, I don't think Rick Scott could win but with the way this year is going, I'm considering that he's the favorite though a Sink victory would hardly shock me.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    Here's the full article in the SP Times.
    http://www.tampabay.com/news/p...

    Here's the saving grace for the Democrats, if true, and the comparison that really matters:

    The Democrats noted that Republicans had an almost identical advantage at this point in the last off-year election in 2006, in which Democrats Alex Sink and Bill Nelson won statewide races for chief financial officer and U.S. Senate.

    2006 was a pretty even year in Florida.  Bill Nelson kicked the shit out of Katherine Harris.  We picked up FL-16 (under extenuating circumstances) and FL-22.  A certain Alex Sink was elected CFO by a pretty comfortable margin.

    On the other hand, Charlie Crist won the governor's race by 6 or so, and we lost the AG and Ag Commissioner races.


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Sorry
    You had already posted the full article.  For some reason I thought you had posted a blog entry referencing it.

    I humbly apologize to the entire SSP community for the redundancy.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    True
    True, but Harris was a horrible candidate and Nelson was a really good one.  I consider Sink to be a slightly better than average candidate, but not at Nelson's levels.  And while Scott has baggage, he is not the walking disaster that Harris was.
    Honestly, I don't like to draw many conclusions from early voting, but it's more data to pour over.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Tom Lee
    who Alex Sink beat for CFO, was a much better candidate than Rick Scott.  He had a pretty big profile as President of the Florida Senate.

    Nelson's big win was all Katherine Harris.  Nelson is not a stellar campaigner, although he has a venerable record as a public servant and an astronaut.  I asked a pretty high-up Dem insider in 2008 if Nelson would consider a Vice Presidential nod, and he told me: "Shit, Bill doesn't even want to get up out of bed in the morning."  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    FL-Gov was open and that was enough to drive turnout, and that's what this subthread is about......
    It really doesn't matter what FL-Sen was like, it's enough that FL-Gov was open and FL-Sen was at least on the ballot.  That's a good combination of drivers for turnout.  The point being that no one can say turnout should've been lower then than now.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Sink also seems to be winning
    indies by a good margin, so any enthusiasm gap might be muted for her.

    From the article:

    Independents could play a decisive role in a close statewide race, such as the Scott-Sink contest where polls show Sink with a sizeable lead among those voters.

    I read earlier that the Sunshine State News tracking poll shows her at +15 among indies, while she and Scott were tied among this group a couple weeks ago. They implied this trend has been steady.

    [ Parent ]
    Rassy on MN-Gov....
    Dayton 44, Emmer 41, Horner 10

    Sorry Scott, but there's no way I can buy the prospect of Emmer as high as 41% or Horner as low at 10%.  Makes me question how valid any of his polling anywhere in the country is.

    Thank you
    This is how many of us feel.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    At least Ras has Dayton ahead
    This leads me to believe the race is over. Dayton has led in every single poll since the primary, except for a Ras Emmer lead that was quickly scrubbed (by Scotty, of all people) because his leaners model doesn't do well with states that have common third-party candidates.
    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen can't even manufacture a lead for Emmer?
    Stick a fork in this race, it's done.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: Two new TV ads from Harry Reid.
    One tailor-made for Southern Nevada, the other for Northern Nevada.



    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    The vocal testimony of business leaders was a good idea.
    It helps dispel the myth of the Dem that's anti-business.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Is it common to have a Northern and Southern
    Nevada ad?  Seems the ads were identical except for that line.
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I know, but I was working on cruise control and posted both.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Oh I wasn't being snarky. I was really curious.

    [ Parent ]
    I am not from NV but instead that big state to its west
       but NV is big enough to have regional differences and since Harry is from Clark County (southernmost county in NV) it is good for him to give special attention to Northern NV, which otherwise might feel slighted.

      Sharrrron Angle is from Northern NV but that may work against her since the folks up there know how crazy and ineffective she was in the state legislature.

      Again I am no Silver State expert but it seems all states have regional differences, even Delaware, which seems no larger than a medium sized county to me.

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    Really smart ads. You don't frequently see
    high-profile business people putting their faces in political ads. They must really be worried about Reid losing. I think this will help with independent voters and moderate GOP voters (if there are any left).
    [ Parent ]
    IA-02
    DCCC spending more money on ads targeting Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

    MMM released toplines from an internal by Tarrance showing her ahead of Loebsack 45-44. As usual, no details about the sample demographics, question wordings or order. I asked for more details--nothing. A former MMM staffer who is now a volunteer (I think), responds to me, "FiveThirtyEight.com  ranks Tarrance as most acc. partisan pollster, around 20 out of 70-some overall."

    It bothers me that Nate Silver's pollster rankings are used as an excuse to avoid transparency about survey data. I believe the IA-02 race is close. All I want to know is whether the Tarrance sample resembles the likely electorate, and whether the questions were asked in a way that might have influenced the topline results. Youth turnout in Iowa City is through the roof because of the ballot initiative about the 21-only bar rule.

    With high youth turnout, I have a hard time seeing this
    race being close.  
    [ Parent ]
    without it being close
    I have a hard time seeing the DCCC spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in the district. MMM didn't even get 40 percent in 2008.
    [ Parent ]
    I am not sure that you can determine how close
    a race is just based on DCCC/NRCC expenditures.

    Question for you on one of your tweets:

    318K absentee ballots requested (D 45% R 36.5%), 202K ballots returned (D 46% R 38%). Total '06 early vote was 242K.

    Did you mean total early vote D+R+I was 242K or total early vote for Dems = 242K and does the 242K include the early in-person and absentee?

    [ Parent ]
    total early vote
    D+R+I was around 242K in 2006. That includes early in person (where you request an absentee ballot and turn it in a few minutes later) as well as vote by mail absentee.
    [ Parent ]
    the DCCC shouldn't need to spend
    in a D+7 district where the Republican candidate this year got 39 percent of the vote in 2008. This wasn't a district they expected to spend money in.
    [ Parent ]
    I've Been Warning For Two Months Now About IA-01 and IA-02......
    Neither Braley nor Loebsack has established himself fully in his district and with a Democratic wipeout at the top of the ticket, both of them could be in big trouble.
    [ Parent ]
    You've been well on your way to having egg on your face for 2 months now......
    You say we're going to lose 93 seats and nothing remotely close to that is going to happen.  If we lose 60 seats that will be worse than most people think and you still won't be remotely close.  So the recurring "I told you so" based on a GOP released internal poll or an ad buy is unimpressive.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    It's Not November 2......
    Your worst-case scenario of 60 lost seats based on the state of the race 11 days before the election is so naive it's just downright cute.  You're not acknowledging the extent to which the late-deciding voters break.  It's certainly possible, although historically unlikely, that the votes will break for Democrats.  But for you to insist that you're right and I'm wrong about where the race will be when the undecideds break is just a tad presumptuous.  Your have your predictions and I have mine.  Nothing more.
    [ Parent ]
    "I've been warning"
    I've been warning.
    I've been vindicated.
    I've been proven.

    Yip-dee-fricken-doo.

    Over and over, same crap.  This is a forum for conversation, not predictions and proving yourself right.  If you're so damn smart take your $$$ to a gambling site and prove it there.  You add nothing to the progressive-oriented discussion on this site.

    You and Moshem are luck the mods are busy with all of the work they do being heavier as its election season.  You've been pretty much pillaried by numerous respected members on this board for your negativity and discourse unbecoming of this site.


    [ Parent ]
    Grow Up......
    I'm entitled to my opinion.  Your entitled to yours.  If you don't want to see what mine is, then don't read posts with my name attached.
    [ Parent ]
    I got your back, rdw, and one thing I've been thinking is...
    ...it's actually to our own detriment there isn't a Republican answer to this site.  I used to consider it a point of pride that we have better blogs than they do, and it still is.

    But there's a downside in that we have a lot of Republicans here, more now than ever since we're approaching an election they're going to win.

    But elections are NOT bipartisan.

    But it is what it is, maybe one day the right will have its own good campaigns and elections blog, and each one of us can expose ourselves to bipartisanship only as much as we individually wish.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    One of the best ads I've seen all cycle
    I think that DSCC ads have been, well, rather lame this cycle.

    This ad, however, is hard-hitting and uses Ken Buck's words against him. Really powerful stuff:



    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    Cris/David
    Could you continue to put the CSpan Debate schedule on the PM update?  I was glad you did a few days ago, because I forget about it every night, and SSP would definitely remind me.

    By the way, tonight (all ET):
    7pm PA-Sen
    8pm IN-09
    9pm Obama with Reid

    Iowa House and Senate races
    Lots of tv ads in these campaigns--in many districts I see Republicans on tv but not Democrats. In the most competitive districts Democrats are also on tv. The Republican ads have a cookie-cutter feel (wasteful spending, pork barrel projects, etc).
    Scotty R: Toomey 48 Sestak 44
    That's the best he could come up with?  I guess it really is tied.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    I feel even better...
    ...about Herseth Sandlin's chances in SD-AL after seeing that.
    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen seems to be doubling-down on the GOP
    wave this year. Normally by now, his numbers have come back in line with the other pollsters.  Either he is seeing something no one is finding or he has decided that setting the GOP wave narrative is more important than producing accurate results.
    [ Parent ]
    I suspect it's his metholodogy
    The one-day, no-callbacks format tends to pick up the most enthusiastic likely voters, and this cycle, no one wants to vote as badly as the rabid right-wingers who think President Obama is a foreign-born Marxist Muslim Nazi. Problem is, they each get one vote, and everyone else who goes to the polls gets one vote.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Does PPP do callbacks?
    I think they usually poll two nights in a row, so perhaps they're able to. Could help explain why they're getting different readings, even though they're also automated.
    [ Parent ]
    LA-Sen: Melancon internals have him down 3
    http://www.politico.com/static...

    Too bad the Dems probably won't give him a dime.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    Isn't LA early voting skewing heavily GOP so far?
    I wonder if too many Dems have left the state post-Katrina for Melancon to have a chance.
    [ Parent ]
    Perhaps the black vote and the Cajun vote will help him here (nm)
    nm
    [ Parent ]
    According to the Fix's twitter, Manchin released an
    internal poll showing him ahead 48-43.  
    Isn't that kinda underwhelming, though?
    If that's how Manchin's internals look, this race is probably still totally winnable for Raese. 48-43 is around what Boxer/Fiorina happens to look like, though in public polling.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    I don't think it is underwhelming.
    Even if you take off the +5 for an internal poll, it shows Manchin tied. There were plenty of polls showing Raese way up on Manchin. So a tied race seems reasonable to me.
    [ Parent ]
    It's Very Underwhelming......
    I suspect Manchin is screwed.  The "hicky" ad tapped a nerve that temporarily hurt Raese, but it came two weeks too early.  I suspect West Virginians are more likely to decide they hate Obama more than they hate being insulted as "hicky" with each day removed from that ad.  In fact, I think West Virginia breaks BIG for Raese.....on the order of a 12-point victory on election day.
    [ Parent ]
    Maese by 12?
    Seriously, dude? I'd be willing to give you two-to-one odds. You need to take a step back and consider the totality of polling here.
    [ Parent ]
    The Totality of Polling Has Showed Manchin......
    ....hemorrhaging a 20-point lead in less than two months.  And considering that in 2008, West Virginia voted against Obama by a 13-point margin and Raese's entire campaign is built around not sending another Obama ally to Washington, I think Manchin still has a long way's to fall before he hits bottom.
    [ Parent ]
    Two-to-one odds
    Want to do this? I'll send $100 to a charity of your choice (a real charity) on November 3 if Raese beats Manchin by 12 points; if Manchin wins or loses by 11.9 points or less, you'll send $50 to Doctors without Borders.
    [ Parent ]
    You
    and that Moshe character have made this site very annoying for me the past few weeks.  And I can tell from the comments that I'm not at all alone.

    This constant droning of irrationally dire predictions and over-interpretation of every shred of negative data.  People are on edge and don't want to hear it.  You really are ruining the site.

    When I was in law school, there was one woman who, before the first set of exams, when everyone was at peak nervousness, constantly droned, "I'm gonna fail!"  You are that person, and Moshe is that person.  

    Maybe this isn't your bag.  Maybe there is a Chicken Little fan club site you can get into.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    I'm Ruining The Site? Grow Up!
    If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I'll own up to it on November 3.  I always thought this site was more objective to cold analysis of elections and was less prone to childish finger-pointing towards dissenting theories than is Daily Kos.  Some on here have made me question that of late.

    Some states are likely to break for the Democrats and others are likely to break for the Republican.  Given how much ground Manchin has already ceded to Raese's more compelling electoral argument in a state where Obama is as reviled as West Virginia, and given how the state has broke hard for the Republicans in the waning hours of the last three Presidential elections, I completely stand by my theory that Manchin will end up primarily with 2008 Obama voters while the McCain voters will all vote Raese....hence the 12-point margin I predict.

    [ Parent ]
    I'll try to keep it constructive.
    It's not the direness of your predictions.  It's the repetitiveness, the constant "I told you so" statements, and the presentation of losses in marginal seats as they were a matter of fact, among other things.

    I'm sorry, but it's irritating.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    The way I think of it, spiderdem, is that...
    ...tekzilla, in contrast, comes off as panicked and anxiety-wracked by his own fatalistic predictions.  I have a good friend who's like that, a liberal Democrat and ISU Cyclones and Minnesota Vikings fan who expects the worst from Democrats and from his favorite sports teams.  And it's OK, because he's obviously on our side and it's worth interacting with him.

    But we've had a growing number of individuals here who predict doom for Democrats and seem at best indifferent to it, and beyond that even self-congratulatory to predict it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Yikes
    Yikes at the TX-23 poll
    Republican pollster n/t

    [ Parent ]
    Internal, still, oy
    Rodriguez sucks at campaigning.

    Oh well, here's to Congressman Pete Gallego in 2012.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    [ Parent ]
    WI-Gov / Barrett ad on choice
    "Too Extreme"


    shumlin is trying something similar in VT
    it seems kind of desperate, like ceding the economy.  I doubt it works in WI and if shumlin wins, it probably won't be due to abortion (and no, it won't save bernero).

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    [ Parent ]
    KY-Sen: Paul will show up to debate after all.
    http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    CA-Sen: Boxer up 2
    I don't have access to the internals...
    ...but someone who does messaged me that among those who've already voted, Fiorina leads 57-36.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    so then
    You heard this from a friend of a friend...?
    [ Parent ]
    Not exactly a friend at all...
    More like a fellow political junkie on Twitter direct message.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Oh, I misunderstood
    I apologize.  I thought you were referring to all CA early voters, not the early voters who participated in Ras's poll.  I thought you were saying that everyone that's voted in CA so far was voting 57% for Fiorina, which didn't jibe with the polls.
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I don't buy that. Rasmussen seems to be
    doubling down on setting the GOP narrative. His polls are getting wackier.
    [ Parent ]
    I have the internals, and...
    ...yes they have Carly up 57-36 with "already voted" and Boxer up 51-43 with "not yet voted."

    Ras doesn't reveal what percentage of the sample is in each group, but the "already voted" group is going to be  LOT smaller with a VERY HIGH margin of error, meaning that 21-point spread isn't reliable.

    Further, the GOP outperforms Dems in CA early voting anyway.  I remember in 2008 some GOP blog grabbed ahold of early voting numbers in CA that showed more Republicans than Democrats showing up by that point, and suggesting an upset for McCain might be in the works.  This is an election Obama won 62-37, and none of the statewide offices was on the ballot to otherwise drive up GOP turnout.

    So take these things with a grain of salt if you don't know how to compare apples to apples.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    It's also possible, though...
    that Meg Whitman's GOTV operation is going to help Fiorina, and that the GOP in California is doing better than usual in that department because of Meg's $$$.

    Whitman is able and willing to get ballots to infrequent GOP voters. If the senate race is actually close, I can envision a scenario in which Whitman's GOTV operation falls short for herself but pulls Fiorina over the line -- especially because reports indicate that the Dems are not really investing in GOTV, but banking on California's Dem lean instead.

    Any other year, California's inherent Dem advantage would be  more than enough. But Boxer's "meh" approval combined with Fiorina self-funding a few million in the final week, Meg's gazillions for GOTV, the enthusiasm gap, and (possibly, per PPP and others) waning support for Prop 19 could be the combo to get Senator-elect Fiorina.

    I'd give Boxer a slight advantage at this point, but the fact that Fiorina continues to poll competitively and Boxer can't get out of the 40s (unlike past years where Boxer's attacks have handily dispatched her opponents) should be worrying for Dems.

    20, GOP, NH-02

    [ Parent ]
    No, that's likely not the case. I commented on another thread a link...
    ...to Red State(!) from 2008 that gloated that the "polls are wrong!" about Obama winning and to prove it, the GOP was running even with Democrats in California early voting!  This was a Red State post on October 26 that year, less than 2 weeks out just like now.  And of course Obama won the state by 25 points, so those early voting statistics, the underlying numbers Red State cited of which I don't doubt, were 25 points more favorable to the GOP than the overall totals.

    Now you have a Rasmussen poll saying Fiorina is up 21 on Boxer.  And that's a subsample with a sky-high margin of error.  If it's right, and you it want to compare to 2008, then Fiorina loses by 4.  That's lazy math and not valid, but I say it anyway to close the loop in the making of my point.  The more accurate conclusion is we don't know a damn thing from the Rasmussen poll's early vote subsample.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I hope
    you don't think I'm one of the "itinerant" commenters you were mentioning. I did join SSP recently because I discovered it recently, but I am genuinely interested in the intelligent, unbiased political commentary that the comments on this site offer. I know I espouse a different political view than this site does as a whole, but I try to be as apolitical and unbiased as possible when I comment here, and I only comment when I feel I have something to add. I hope you and other users recognize this.

    That said, I read the Redstate post, and I understand why you use it as a foil. But I think Whitman's turnout operation is legitimately going to help the GOP in California, and that Fiorina is running competitively enough to benefit from it to the extent that she can win. I'm using the Rasmussen poll as one tea leaf, as you would put it, to that end, but obviously I don't rely on Rasmussen as gospel, much less a subsample. But I do believe that the California Senate race is undervalued as a pickup opportunity for the GOP. In my opinion, CA is much more likely than WA, and even somewhat more likely than WV. Of all the possible "surprises" on election night, a Fiorina win would surprise me the least. But, as I said, it's still unlikely -- so it would indeed be a surprise.

    20, GOP, NH-02

    [ Parent ]
    When I wrote that comment...
    ...I had only one particular individual on my mind at that moment, and it wasn't you.  I universalized the comment because there have been others, but not so prominent.  But I had one person on my mind.

    Regarding CA, I came back here and saw your comment this soon only because I realized I needed to correct myself on the comparison I made.  For all my lecturing on apples-to-apples, of course I failed to do just that by comparing early turnout not with partisan breakdown of total turnout, but with Obama's margin of victory.  That was wrong.  The correct margin likely was something in the ballpark of 15 points in the partisan turnout differential.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks
    DCCyclone -- I respect your commentary A LOT. It's always well-informed and thoughtful. I just wanted to make clear that I know I'm a guest on this site, and I try to behave that way.  

    20, GOP, NH-02
    [ Parent ]
    Speaking for myself
    your commentary has been welcome, and I hope you stick around after the elections, regardless of the results.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Means Boxer's ahead in the 5-7 range

    [ Parent ]
    Days like these
    Make me want to believe Rasmussen and take every one of his polls at face value. I know better than that, but it's tempting. Damn, you, Scotty, getting Republicans' hopes up!

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    WA-Sen - Illegal Immigrant Problem?
    I just read this AP article.

    http://www.charter.net/news/re...

    about illegal immigrants openly volunteering to canvass for Murray and other Dem candidates.  Could this article hurt the Dems in WA?

    AK-SEN: NRSC now spending against McAdams
    $79K media expenditure today.  probably TV buy?
    bottom line is
    looks like McAdams is officially a threat.
    [ Parent ]
    Will the DSCC help? (nm)
    nm
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe to Murkowski
    I still don't see a real path to actual victory for McAdams. He'll need to completely clean-up among Dems and win a plurality of Independents.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Yes, and add buy
    John Cornyn the head of the NRSC said on The Daily Rundown, that the add would be part of showing Joe Miller's positives, but also a shot at McAdams.  The all but admitted, that McAdams is the concern not Murkowski, as she is essentially a Republican as well.
    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen / Pittsburgh Post Gazette
    endorses Sestak. This is from earlier this week, but I don't remember seeing it posted here. PPG is largest daily in Pittsburgh, according to Wiki. Not sure about their leanings, though I'm guessing center-left.

    Yet Mr. Toomey, the father of three, is a soft-spoken, amiable candidate. He lacks the bark of a Rick Santorum, but he would easily replicate the former senator's voting record. An analysis last May by Pollster.com said Mr. Toomey was more conservative than 98 percent of all members of Congress since 1995 -- and much more conservative than Mr. Santorum. Which raises the question, do Pennsylvanians really want to turn back the clock?

    With Joe Sestak on the ballot, voters don't have to. His views are in sync with the state and his voice calls for moderation. For that reason, he has earned the Post-Gazette endorsement.

    http://blogs.sites.post-gazett...

    PPP is tweeting a bunch of bad news today.
    CO-Gov race is looking pretty competitive; Ky thinks Aqua Buddha ad was over the line; CA prop 19 polling looking bad.

    It is looking like next week may be a bad polling week for Dems with that news.  

    Not that bad.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    I'd recommend not taking tweets on one-day samples too seriously. Remember that...
    ...one of PPP's NJ-Gov polls last year had Christie narrowly ahead, and you wouldn't know it from the first tweet PPP posted on it which said Corzine was polling very strongly, insinuating he had a big lead.

    This is why competent pollsters sample over 3-4 days, not just one day like Rasmussen.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Tom Tancredo
    Although I thought he was comically adorable in the 2008 Presidential election (stumbling over words, acting all nervous during the debates), him ruling an entire state without Jesse Ventura there to teach him the proper competence, self-discipline, and good fashion sense, cannot be allowed to stand.
    [ Parent ]
    This may make you feel a little better
    The downward support for Prop 19 is curious because there is not a conservative shift in the other races coinciding with it

    [ Parent ]
    Also, re: Aqua Buddha,
    we could find that a lot of Democrats are registering disapproval, while still supporting Conway. So it's basically just a wait and see.
    [ Parent ]
    The Atlantic article
    on the ramifications of the ad might support this idea. Liberals aren't happy about the ad, and the Republican party is trying to exploit that. But will those liberals not support Conway because of it? I doubt it.

    Conway is hardly basking in goodwill. The NRSC (I think) is running a brutal ad of liberal commentators condemning Conway, and a columnist (a pastor, no less!) in the Louisville Courier-Journal approvingly cited Jonathan Chait's condemnation of Conway this morning.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

    [ Parent ]
    Magellan (R) Hickenlooper leads only by 1
    Hickenlooper 44%
    Tancredo 43%
    Maes 9%

    Partisan breakdown: 38% Republican, 35% Democrat, 27% Unaffilated

    I know it's a Magellan poll and will be dismissed by many, but Tancredo continues to benefit from the dwindling support for Maes.  Hickenlooper hasn't really gotten out of the 43-47% range in any poll recently and Tancredo's numbers are on the rise.  Another important element obviously is whether or not Maes breaks 10% in reference to future elections.

    If Hick lets this slip away, Coakley will be cheering......
    As an Iowa State fan, one sore spot for my school is we were the last no. 2 seed to lose to a no. 15 seed in the NCAA Tournament, that happening in our lose to lowly Hampton in 2001.  We keep waiting for someone else to beat a no. 2 seed in the first round so that CBS will stop playing damn clips of our sorry-ass game every March.

    In the same vein, if Hick loses to Tancredo, Coakley will be forgotten, she will no longer be the goat of the party.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    But isn't Hickenlooper running a decent campaign?
    I don't think Hickenlooper's the problem, it's the environment dragging him down. He probably can't break 50%, and thus, in that regard, he's lucky it isn't a one-on-one match-up. But, he's doing everything right in a year where doing everything right doesn't necessarily mean you'll prevail. He has the Dem vote coalesced. The problem is, Colorado Indies look poised to swing back to red this year, and it probably has nothing to do with Hickenlooper personally.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    He's in a 3-way against 2 right-wingers and yet down to a margin-of-error lead over the Constitution Party(!) nominee who has a personally toxic reputation. So you tell me...
    ...IS Hickenlooper running a "good" campaign?

    He swore off negative campaigning early on.  It didn't look like a bad decision at the time, even though I recall personally having shook my head thinking that's never a smart thing to commit to.  But I figured like everyone else it wouldn't matter, neither Tancredo nor Maes can win even one-on-one, let alone a 3-way.  As it goes, someone needs to start attacking Tancredo.

    A lot of average and actual Colorado voters don't really know who Tom Tancredo is.  I suspect that's hard for political junkies, like us, to absorb, but it's true.  He was just one of the state's 7 Congressmen, and a lot of regular voters don't follow politics enough to have much awareness of Tancredo's antics.  His Presidential run didn't any name recognition, he was buried in a large field and never distinguished himself.  Indeed, for a guy who's a terrible bombthrower, he never even made news for THAT in his quixotic Presidential run.

    Somebody needs to get into Colorado and run attacks on Tancredo pronto.  He certainly can't win without driving down Maes so far as to hurt the state party's official status, but that's a minor price to pay, and one plenty enough Republicans WILL pay, in exchange for winning the Governorship with Tancredo as the de facto Republican.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    CO-Gov: GOP polls finds Tancredo closing to 1, Maes fading to single-digits
    http://www.magellanstrategies....

    Things of note..

    - Tancredo is coalescing the GOP vote, with only 15% sticking with Maes.
    - Tancredo has an 8-point edge among Independents.
    - Only 2% are undecided, meaning, if these #s hold any water, Hickenlooper's probably stuck around 44-45%, with all other movement occuring between Tancredo and Maes.

    (Of course, take all of this with a grain of salt, though my own voter model actually also shows Tancredo within striking distance, with Hickenlooper up 47-45-8.)

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    Things of note
    It's a Republican poll.
    [ Parent ]
    That's good in a way. If Maes gets less than 10%, the CO GOP gets castrated.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Tancredo winning
    Tancredo winning is not good, Rep minor party or not.  I hope Hick can save this race.  Tancredo is one of the most racist candidates out there.  How can anyone vote for him after his comment about literacy tests?
    [ Parent ]
    The problem is a lot of voters aren't aware what Tancredo said...
    ...about literacy tests, or much else over the years.

    That's what attack ads are for.  You don't assume voters just "know" stuff.  They don't.  And even a basic awareness doesn't automatically ensure certain things become voting issues.  An opposing campaign has to highlight them.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    They would become what the American Constitution Party is now
    And Tancredo is doing quite well for himself on the ACP line. So while it makes things more difficult, it's not a death knell of any sort.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    hard to believe
    Tancredo is winning independents, given how extreme he is.
    [ Parent ]
    PA-17
    David Argall, not justin.  
    SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition) | 240 comments

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