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SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 3:44 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: Congrats to Scott McAdams, who just cleared the McMillion hurdle with $1 million in fundraising so far. The majority of contributions were from Alaska, with 88% contributions of $200 or less.

• KY-Sen: Matt Taibbi's new Rolling Stone article as he works the Rand Paul beat is a must-read even if it doesn't have any revelations as freaky as the "Aqua Buddha" story, although there's some vague and anonymous racism from the newsletter that his snarky secret society put out. The prize-winning quote, though, deals with the Tea Partiers don't seem terribly phased by any of this:

("Well, I used to use that cologne myself," was the response of one Tea Partier to a question I posed about "Aqua Buddha")

• MO-Sen: American Crossroads has declared victory in Missouri, and is pulling out of advertising there, where Roy Blunt has a consistent but single-digit lead. (As for the actual party committees... well, it's probably not relevant, seeing as how Crossroads and its ilk have made them basically irrelevant this year.)

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid racked up a couple endorsements from the big-in-Nevada gaming industry, including PokerPAC. He also got the endorsement of the former chair of the RNC, Frank Fahrenkopf, who warned of the threat Sharron Angle (with her ties to anti-gambling Gary Bauer) might pose to the state's gaming industry.

• PA-Sen: Ah, sweet Schadenfreude. The Club for Growth is having to plug $1 million into the Pennsylvania Senate race in order to bail out their former boss, Pat Toomey.

• WI-Sen: Yet another story with Ron Johnson with his hand in the trough he so regularly decries: he says he's not quite sure how five of his employees (and 10 dependents) at his plastics firm Pacur wound up on BadgerCare, the state's health insurance program for the poor. That would seem to contradict previous statements from the Johnson camp that all Pacur full-time employees are covered by the company's plan.

• AZ-07, AZ-08: I know John McCain has refudiated all his old mavericky ways, but did he actually have to go so far as to violate his signature piece of mavericky legislation, the McCain-Feingold Act? He recently cut spots for GOP candidates in the 7th and 8th, in which he and Jon Kyl appeared, and paid for them out of Friends of John McCain (his campaign committee). Dems have filed FEC complaints against McCain, saying that if he coordinated with the Ruth McClung and Jesse Kelly campaigns, he would've been limited to $4,800 contributions to each (they'd be legal independent expenditures if there was truly no coordination).

• CO-03, CO-04: The gang-that-couldn't-shoot-straight strikes twice, in two different neighboring Old West districts. In the 3rd, an anti-abortion group has been hitting the airwaves attacking Ken Salazar. That's fine, but Ken Salazar is the Secretary of Interior. His brother (the one with the mustache) is John Salazar, the Rep. from the 3rd. OK, understandable, since they're brothers... but how do you explain the confusion in the 4th, where not just some outside group but the Cory Gardner campaign mixed up Betsy Markey with Massachusetts Rep. Ed Markey? They accused her of voting for the Obama budget, which she didn't; that was the other Markey.

• FL-25: I don't know how far this will get, but give local Dems in south Florida credit for audaciousness. A Joe Garcia backer filed a lawsuit trying to get David Rivera removed from the ballot. The suit alleges that Rivera should be removed because of state election finance disclosure irregularities, concerning Rivera's mysterious claims of being a contractor to USAID despite USAID saying he wasn't. While they cite a comparable case where a state senate candidate was recently stricken from the ballot from similar problems, I'm wondering if it may be too late to do anything about that even if it succeeds on the merits (although if it only serves to move the USAID deception into the spotlight, that's good too).

• MO-04: More triage news... on the Republican side? Despite news of a Vicky Hartzler internal poll yesterday that showed a tied race, the NRCC is packing up, at least from the Kansas City market. I wonder if that has more to do with feeling neighboring KS-03 is locked down, as there are other smaller media markets in the 4th where they might still spend, but I think this has to count as at least a partial pullout.

• SD-AL: This is an interesting counterpoint to the anti-Pelosi (or at least Pelosi-skeptical) tide that seems to be rising among threatened Blue Dogs, including Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (who's in the skeptic camp): GOP challenger Kristi Noem is saying that if she wins her race, she's not sold yet on John Boehner as Republican leader, but would like to see who else might run. Recall that Noem previously politely told Sarah Palin to stay far away from her race, so this isn't the first time she's pantomimed independence.

• Early voting: There's been some buzz today about a CBS News story that says that Dems are doing better than expected in early voting, although it's kind of shy on actual numbers. It mentions that Dems have outpaced GOPers in early voting in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, and Clark Co., Nevada, while there's a Republican edge in Florida and Colorado. Jon Ralston, of course, has more data on Nevada, while Politico has some Iowa tidbits, involving early ballot requests in IA-03 (where 50% of requests are from Dems, but where Dems are 36% of the electorate) and IA-02 (51% of the requests, 38% of the electorate).

• SSP TV:
• CO-Sen: Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund is out with a "high six-figure" buy in Colorado, with the first TV ad to take on Ken Buck's failure to prosecute that 2005 rape case (the "buyer's remorse" incident)
• KY-Sen: The DSCC hits Rand Paul on his support for the 23% sales (aka "fair") tax
• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle wonders how Harry Reid made all that money in her new ad (helpful fact from Jon Ralston: he was a millionaire even before he was in the House)
• WV-Sen: Outsourcing seems to be the hot button issue coming out of focus groups that works for the Dems these days, as the DSCC keeps hitting John Raese on it with their new spot
• AZ-03: Jon Hulburd has another TV ad against Ben Quayle, poking at his values and overall maturity
• HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa's new ad has a special guest star in the form of Barack Obama
• IN-09: The SEIU goes after Todd Young on Social Security privatization
• NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter, in her own ad, also works the SSP angle against Frank Guinta
• VA-05: Is the DCCC trying to drive up indie teabagger Jeffrey Clark's numbers? They're out with a spot hitting Robert Hurt for all the tax-raising he did in the state legislature

• Rasmussen:
• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 45%, Rich Whit(n)ey (G) 2%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%
• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%
• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 42%, Rick Berg (R) 52%
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 54%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%
• SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 38%, Nikki Haley (R) 47%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Afternoon Edition) | 247 comments
Just when WI-Sen looked like a goner
Ron Johnson seems determined to get Russ Feingold re-elected. Am I right that all of his most recent bonehead remarks came after the most recent polling that put Feingold in a dead heat? If so, I wouldn't be surprised to see Feingold pull ahead further in the next few days.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
Yep.
This is where the "Some Dude" thing hurts them, when they have unseasoned candidates facing a pressure situation like this.  A seasoned candidate (say, a state Senator or a downballot statewide officeholder) likely wouldn't be flubbing like this.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
WI-Sen: It seems that Ron Johnson, working with the WI Catholic Diocese
killed the Child Victims Act.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
WI-Sen: New ad from Russ touts his history in helping veterans.
It's also important in that Ron Johnson was caught at a loss in answering what the government's role is in helping veterans suffering from poverty.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

I like
 the fact he used young Vets mostly instead of the usual old guys you see in the Vet ads.

20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
Here's the footage of Johnson "flubbing" on the subject:


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Building a narrative
Johnson's recent comments are doing a great job of building an image of him as "clueless rich dude who wants to coast into a senate seat."  I like that the recent ad keeps one of the flubs in the spotlight, but hopefully Feingold can come out with something that hits specifically at this weakness soon.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.
[ Parent ]
The bottom line is
Ron Johnson is not a strong candidate. He's run a couple of a good ads, but overall he is not a strong candidate. I don't think I'm going out on too much of a limb when I say that I think Ron Johnson has benefitted more from the environment than any other US Senate candidate. If this election was 2 years ago Feingold wins by 20 and in a neutral year Feingold wins by 10-12.

But yeah these gaffes do reinforce that narrative, maybe he's not clueless but he is simply an amateur in every way when you compare him to Feingold.

[ Parent ]
Not to mention
that he's running against Feingold, for all that entails.  Somebody like Schumer would have buried him in a pile of ads long ago.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
What is very
strange is my grandfather is a vet and lives in Milwaukee because of the veterans hospital. Yet he is a hardcore libertarian and hates Russ. At least he doesn't vote.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
First step to being Libertarian
Reject all government programs, including voting.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
I love him dearly
But he should no better. He is getting "socialist" healthcare from the government. Maybe it's because he's Native American and doesn't trust the US government. It think I'm grassping at straws now! Damn Libritarians!!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Know not no!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
If he were a true Libertarian, shouldn't he vote for Feingold?
He was the only US Senator to vote against the Patriot Act.  That sounds like something a libertarian would latch onto.  That is unless they are a LINO! Where they don't want to be associated with the republican party, but are in essence, republicans.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
BINGO!
Your absolutely correct.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I honestly have no respect for people like that
They are in essence equivalent to sympathizers.  If you don't like a party to such an extent that you disassociate with them, then WHY THE HELL DO YOU GIVE THEM YOUR VOTE. It's pathetic, and only keeps the status quo they are supposedly trying to change.

I feel my current room mate is like that, he's all, "I'm a libertarian, but registered republican".  He recently told me he changed his voter registration to independent over the pathetic show the GOP put on in the senate over the recent DADT vote.  He just got his mail in ballot today (lucky he lives in Waxman's district and won't have much influence), but I have a feeling he will be voting straight ticket republican anyway.

I have no respect for those people unless they truly are independent and split their ticket at least OCCASIONALLY.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Funny how
it seems like, from voting patterns, most libertarians seem to care far more about pure free-market capitalism than they do about, you know, civil liberties.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
I've noticed that too
That's why I respect guys like Gary E. Johnson a hell of a lot more than I respect so-called libertarians like Joe Miller, Rand Paul, and Mike Lee.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
It's not just that
Most self-described "libertarians" I know are the most belligerent/hawkish/militarist people I know. Pro-torture, etc. Their ideology isn't libertarian or "classical liberal" - it's just people trying to justify the belief that they should be able to do whatever THEY want without regard to anybody else.

Most of these guys are just privileged, young-ish men who call themselves "libertarian" to justify their privileged lifestyle.  

[ Parent ]
libertarians i know are the opposite
close gitmo, no "obamacare", no war/nation building, no/little regulation, strong ALL amendments, not just some, fans of ayn rand, but acknowledge some parts on untenable and others are insane.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I
know of some LIBERAL people that are "libertarians". Seriously they know nothing about the party and do not agree with them with any issues but they are screw the establishment and legalize pot types. Most people like that tend not to vote though. The few I know probably aren't voting this cycle.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
the libertarians i know
either voted for bob barr, or write in for ron paul (in fairness, their politics do match up, so it's not like progressives voting for paul to be ironic, cool, or screw the establishment).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
calling oneself "libertarian" is like
a fashion trend among conservatives.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
As a libertarian myself (through and through), I feel compelled to comment briefly
Many young "libertarians" are just conservatives who don't like being associated with the Republican Party because they disagree on one or two issues (usually gay marriage and abortion, in my experience). They're often still anti-immigration, have hawkish foreign policy views, and support broad police powers.

In almost all cases, though, libertarians will vote more based on economic issues than civil liberties issues, and therefore will vote Republican (as much as that helps, in most cases). The major difference was 2006, when the overwhelming dissatisfaction with the Iraq War shifted many libertarians to the Dem camp (as the Iraq War had become an economic issue in its own right). But on the whole, libertarians value free markets far more than freer immigration or legal pot (with notable exceptions).  

[ Parent ]
Well, in my own defence, some people may just be very committed party supporters
who see politics as a game for their side to win.

And I say "in my defence" because to some extent I see it like that.  At least, this is one of my responses when straw liberals ask why I support Bobby Bright and Walt Minnick.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
LINO!
Mercy that's rich
[ Parent ]
But
that's not the name of an animal...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Will folks know...
why Russ has that ad out?  I think it would have made more sense if he included some of the clip or text of Johnson bumbling the answer.  

But that's just Russ not going negative, and that will end his political career.  

I also don't know why he hasn't hit on the fact that Johnson wants to cut stem cell funding - I think that would be a huge winner for Russ with independents and moderate GOP even, but Russ won't touch it it seems, and it's a gift.  

[ Parent ]
I get your point
But I guess here's my question.  Everyone knows Russ' stylings.  Where in the *&!#? are the IE's, the committees, etc to do Russ' dirty work for him.

Everyone is right that this is a gift.  To my knowledge Russ doesn't control the world.  So why doesn't the DSCC or some other group put together the damning ad featuring Johnson's quote?

[ Parent ]
Russ told the DSCC not to run ads for him...

[ Parent ]
That was one of the dipshit moves of all time.

[ Parent ]
That's false.
I agree that Feingold not using Johnson's words at the beginning of this ad was a mistake. But Feingold isn't quite that pure. He's not gonna go low, but he will make pointed contrasts between himself and Johnson.

Here's a radio ad about Johnson's support for free-trade agreements like NAFTA and CAFTA:

http://www.russfeingold.org/me...

[ Parent ]
I think that CBS News .piece on early voting is lazy work and worthless......
I've noticed political journalists struggle badly to correctly interpret statistics, whether polling data or voting data or whatever else.

In this case, they don't always think to consider that you have to compare midterm-to-midterm, and compare early turnout to actual election results, and even go further down into the weeds to see what kind of advantage one party typically has at the start of early voting versus toward the end of early voting.

The truth regarding Iowa is that statewide the Dem advantage is the weakest it's been, far worse than 2006.  Perhaps IA-02 and IA-03 are doing much better than, statewide, and it's plausible there's no uniform swing in turnout and some areas friendlier to Democrats will have better Democratic turnout than more competitive purple areas or red areas.

And the North Carolina numbers have been poor compared to 2006, from what I've read.

Nevada is holding its own compared to 2006 from what Ralston keeps saying everyday.

But some of these stories just look at how many Dems and GOPers have voted and do a half-assed "analysis" that is completely wrong.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Curious as to what you think about this report
on early voting in Colorado:

http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

Most of what I'd heard about CO voting was bad news for Dems, but Ambinder seems to think otherwise, though he is doing an '08 comparison.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
The vibe I'm getting from these early polling results so far...
Mainly, the vibe has been, "What enthusiasm gap?"

Obviously, not every state is voting yet, and turnout tends to peak around Election Day, but so far there just hasn't been anything too unusual - other than in Texas, where Democratic turnout relative to Republican turnout appears to be markedly up.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
He approaches it the right way to a GREAT extent but still has 2 problems......
First, he seems to accept at face value what he says is the Dems' explanation of why Dem registration has dropped since 2008, that state Dems have "tended well" to their party and that 50K voters moved out of state.  What does "tended well" mean?  I have no idea.  And why is there something special about Dems leaving the state?  Haven't Repubs and indies left the state?  As other people of initially unknown leanings move in?  I don't understand these explanations.

Second, Ambinder compares 2006 to 2008, which is not apples-to-apples.  Now, he actually compares them favorably to Dems this time, saying Dems have a higher percentage of their voters out this time than last time by a few ticks, but of course if Dem voter rolls have dropped and are a smaller percentage of the total, there's still a "loss" in there compared to 2008, although it's possible the way the math works out the slightly higher turnout rate this time offsets it, for now.  But overall it seems fair to say early voting doesn't show a harmful gap against Dems.  As Ambinder wrote, CO GOPers had higher early turnout than Dems in 2008, too, and Dems won overwhelmingly on election day.  But ultimately I still would rather see a comparison to 2006.

Ambinder is right at least that glancing at early turnout and seeing more Repubs than Dems having voted is not a reason to declare an enthusiasm gap.  He "gets" it.  It's just that his analysis still isn't quite precise.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
IA 02
I think makes sense-- there is a ballot issue that would change the bar entry from 19 to 21 in Johnson County, the home of University of Iowa and the most Democratic county in the state. There is supposedly record early voting all throughout the county, which should raise turnout over the district. +3000 or so students voting won't make a huge difference in the end, but I imagine this is what we're seeing for IA 02.

I would expect this to influence IA 03, as many students who formerly registered in the Des Moines area might re-register to Iowa City to vote for the bar ordinance, which would suck Democrats from IA 03. So, it's great news to hear that turnout is also up there.

And, in general about early voting, I think that Democrats are going to surprise people with young people. Yes, I think young people generally unenthused, but I have made all those unenthusiastic people go vote, so I think with a little organization, we can get the young voters out for the Dems..  

[ Parent ]
Also
Cyclone, I didn't read your article, but according to George Mason University, Dem turnout is higher than 2006 at this point (though it may grow more Republican as we move closer to election day).  
[ Parent ]
Re your speculation your last point, Reid Wilson's piece on Hotline On Call this morning...
...said Democratic strategists feel OK because of just the opposite pattern in past elections, that early voting becomes more Democratic as election day gets closer.  Democrats who early-vote just procrastinate more than Republicans do.

The bottom line is that things don't look bad for us in early voting, we're OK so far.  I just hope we don't find ourselves getting slaughtered in election day voting, which very well could happen.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
but DCCyclone
the Iowa GOP basically had no early voting program in 2006 or 2008. This year they have Grassley on the ballot with tons of extra money to spend--he's done at least a couple of statewide mailings with absentee ballot request forms. Branstad has also done multiple mailings with absentee ballot request forms, as well as robocalls featuring Branstad and his running mate asking Repubs to vote early. Nothing like that was done in previous cycles. The Iowa Democratic Party doesn't have the resources to compete with that, yet still Dems are requesting and returning ballots at a greater rate than Iowa Republicans.
[ Parent ]
Thank you, because I didn't know that. But that begs a question......
Does this somehow belittle an "enthusiasm" gap?  OK if our turnout is what it's supposed to be, but if Republicans are making up a substantial share of the gap, so what if they're pouring more resources into doing so?  I am reminded of Ohio in 2004, when Kerry exceeded all vote goals all over the state and his campaign was convinced we'd won the state...until the returns came in, and Bush pulled in massive numbers of votes beyond what his own campaign thought possible (and in fact his own campaign thought they'd lost even entering the early evening).

If it turns out that Republicans see their turnout drop massively on election day compared to the past few elections, and it's a wash, then great for us.  But obviously we won't know that until election night.

I'd like more of your thoughts on the nature of what's going on in early voting in Iowa.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I have no idea
The Democrats' spin goes like this: Republicans are mainly banking votes from people who would have voted on November 2 anyway.  Dems are targeting not just reliable voters, but unreliable voters (e.g. people who voted in only 1 of the last 3 elections). Dems also claim to be better targeting people in the battleground state legislative districts, and they claim that most of the no-party people who have voted early were IDed as supporters of one or more Democratic candidates (because there was emphasis on getting those supporters to fill out absentee ballot request forms).

Is that true? I have no way of knowing, except that in some of the battleground legislative districts, the early vote numbers are very good for Democrats.

Here is one example: a candidate in an Iowa House district targeted a tiny town that used to have its own polling station but doesn't anymore. If people in that town want to vote on November 2, they have to drive about 6 miles to the next town. It's not that far, but remember these are country roads, and weather can be iffy in November, flu season is starting, etc. So over the summer this candidate worked hard to ID supporters in that town and get them to turn in absentee ballot requests. D requests are way ahead of R requests in that town. If stuff like this is being replicated in dozens of communities, it could make the difference between holding and losing the Iowa House. But I don't know whether that is happening.

[ Parent ]
don't remind me of 2004
Gore carried Iowa in 2000 with about 650K votes. Kerry's campaign figured they would need 700K votes to win the state. Vote goals were exceeded everywhere, and Kerry got 735K votes--but Bush got 12K more than that. I was so confident Kerry was going to win the state.
[ Parent ]
Yup, and the GOP got all those people to vote on election day, w/o early voting! This is why I hate conspiracy theorists...
...who complain "Ohio was stolen!"  It is the height of ignorance.  They have this notion that somehow our vote was "suppressed."  They know nothing of the numbers, that our actual voters completely overwhelmed our targets.  It sucked, but sometimes we just plain lose fair and square, and we did that time.

Florida in 2000 was a different matter entirely......

But back to THIS election, I hope hope hope that maybe more of our voters, a LOT more, are planning to show up than polling is detecting.

But like I said in another comment, we could find ourselves holding our own in early/absentee voting only to find Republicans wiping us out in election-day voting.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And I find it slightly infuriating
that some people ignore the fact that there were no to 30-minute lines in heavily Republican areas and over 8-hour lines in heavily Democratic areas of Ohio, and that Blackwell and other Republicans engaged in heavy caging. Why you insist on disregarding very conclusive evidence of successful vote-suppression, in the fact that there were really high votes in SPITE of it, I doubt I will ever understand.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
agree with you
Bad things happened there.
[ Parent ]
Why I disregard these accusations is...
...there were not anywhere remotely close to 117,000 Kerry voters statewide effectively disenfranchised through whatever means you would cite.  Unless you can make the math add up, you don't have a credible case.  

And no one has ever even tried to argue a credible case that the math adds up.

And some of the "arguments" some people make are beyond stupid, such as RFK, Jr. saying the exit polling raw data "proved" Kerry won Ohio.

I'm as hostile as anyone to false moral equivalences, but the "Ohio was stolen" mantra is akin to "Obama wasn't born in the U.S." mantra in its absurdity and practical effect of maintaining a long-term denial of a valid election result.

It makes me wonder, are people here and elsewhere going to complain "the House was stolen" if the GOP wins 230 seats a week from Tuesday?

Not every election is Florida 2000.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
So, you have a figure
on how many voters finally went home after waiting in the rain for over 8 hours? How did you come up with the figure? An unfair, deliberately messed up election is unfair, regardless of how many people's votes ultimately didn't count, and I don't see how anyone could possibly quantify them with great confidence.

However, I've cited Palast before. If you're going to constantly reiterate your belief that the election in Ohio in 2004 was a fair outcome, and not a blatant attempt at election-stealing by Blackwell and other Republicans, you need to refute his investigative journalism and math, not mine. Yet I have never seen you address his points.

If you don't want constant pushback, stop making the unsupportable assertions that it's possible to know with certainty how many Democratic votes were never made because of various vote-suppressing schemes in Ohio in 2004.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
after the election
some pollsters will need to go back to the drawing board on LV models. I find Abramowitz's points about Gallup's LV sample compelling, for instance. Not saying it won't be a big night for the GOP, but if it turns out to be less than a 1994-level massacre, some pollsters are going to look stupid.
[ Parent ]
IL-GOV: How is Scott Lee Cohen even getting 6%?
I mean seriously, who's the likely voter here? Someone who thinks Quinn and Brady have enough potential for illegal shenanigans to live up to Illinois' proud tradition of crooked governors? I can sort of understand someone frustrated with the poor choices both parties have put on the ballot and voting for Whitney, but this guy?!?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
Guys threaten who beat up their girlfriends can vote too
Maybe Cohen has locked up that crucial voting bloc? Or maybe they're just low-info voters who only support Cohen because he's 'none of the above'?

And man, Gloria Allred is everywhere these days.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Probably
The same kind of people who were begging Jim Traficant to run.
[ Parent ]
polls typically overstate
support for minor-party candidates.
[ Parent ]
my exact react, too
But there's also 8% undecided here. Maybe Cohen's 6% response is a sort exasperated undecided response.

There's another issue!
Since Ras is an autodialer, do we know how steroid abuser supporters break on the cellphone-only vs landline issue...?

[ Parent ]
Cohen sunk some of his own money into the campaign
Bless his crazy heart, he's actually trying. I've gotten four pieces of direct mail from him, plus the big stonking billboard along I-55...Whitney and Green, by contrast, have been invisible. So I'm not surprised he's getting the bulk of the "eh, fuck 'em both" vote, especially since his scandal broke back in February when nobody but us was paying attention.

27, Democratic, IL-01
[ Parent ]
4 pieces of mail from an indy candidate
is pretty impressive.
Any idea if they were statewide or targeted the Chicago area?

He dropped a bundle (over $2M) to win the Lt Gov primary, and now is dropping another bundle for this Gov. race.

If he's doing this to raise name recognition, I wonder what he's got his eye on for the next election cycle?
I suspect either political party would accept a self-funder with a definitely proven record of actually self-funding.

[ Parent ]
I keep wondering if Mike Madigan egged him on, to split the anti-Quinn vote (eom)

[ Parent ]
Just when I thought Prop 19 was going the way of Prop 8
A more upbeat-than-expected view from, of all people, Nate Silver:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...


24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

Guess where the biggest anti-Prop 19 money is coming from.
The liquor industry, which is worried lots of people might switch from booze to pot for their legal high (if pot truly becomes legal).
[ Parent ]
I thought that was the second-biggest anti-19 group
after law enforcement groups.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
MN-01
http://morningtake.posterous.c...

Grove Insight for Tim Walz

Walz 50
Demmer 34
Other 5
Undecided 16

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Good to see that
at least one Dem out there is in good enough position to do some pushback.
[ Parent ]
Undecided SB/13%
Still adds up to 102% though.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
I count 105%
  That must be an enthusiastic sample of voters, lol...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Flow chart for determining how to vote:
Iowa turnout
I never really considered the Iowa Democrats to be that endangered at any time. I still don't know how Rep. Leonard Boswell made it onto so many pundits' "tossup" list. I never considered IA-3 to be anything less than Lean Democratic.
Boswell
He won just 52-46 in 2006, a Dem wave year. He'll probably squeak by this year, but only because Zaun is such a chump.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Boswell
Should he hang on he'll likely retire in 2012 given his age and Iowa's loss of a Congressional seat. He should hang on and have no regrets for his votes for 2 years. He's been quite a good Democrat over the years so I'd hate to lose him.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
he had a better opponent in 2006
and the NRCC engaged heavily in the district that year. If Zaun were a stronger candidate Boswell would probably lose. However, Zaun is not ready for prime time and the NRCC never got involved this year.
[ Parent ]
I thought Boswell was a goner this year
just like Arcuri. In a landslide year he only managed a mediocre margin and everything I heard about him suggested he was a lackluster campaigner, so I thought he'd be one of the first to go. He must have drastically improved his campaigning to even be surviving right now (just like Arcuri).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Georgia AA turnout
looks pretty good this year, based on these numbers provided by dKos diarist. I can't confirm them, but diarist says they come from the office of the SoS.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

In that period in 2006, about 60,000 African Americans voted.  And even though in total African Americans made up 24% of all ballots cast in Georgia, in the early voting period they accounted for less than 17% of voters.  Enough background, what is happening this year?

Well, with the final week of early voting not even upon us, African American voters have already cast more than 68,000 ballots.  That's more than the 2006 total and we still have 7 days of early voting to go plus election day.  By comparison, white voters cast 284,000 votes in the early period of 2006 and have cast just over 202,000 this year.

In the comments, diarist says:

As an aside, at the end of last week African Americans made up only 22.4% of early voters, but this week it has been steadily rising, to 23.4, 23.8 and today 24.2%.  I am hoping by Monday (when Friday's numbers will come out) that we will be at 25% and rising!

I vote absentee...
...in Georgia. And I'm hoping Roy Barnes can pull off a win in GA-Gov.

There's also down ticket races that are really important. Like the Agriculture Commissioner, State School Superintendent, Supreme Court judge and Court of Appeals judge. I'm also hoping against hope that the Dem candidate can upset my Repub State Senator, but it's a real longshot.

[ Parent ]
Told you we were coming out...
The Tea Party scares us...It is all over Urban Radio.  Also, I keep getting emails from groups with distributions lists of atleast 200+ other people on them reminding AA's to vote early and often this year...;-)

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
AAwesome :) n/t

[ Parent ]
Hopefully that is happening across the country
and not just in Georgia. The Dems desperately need strong AA turnout to hold the house.
[ Parent ]
I haven't heard much of it in Tennessee
There was an editorial in the Commercial Appeal (Memphis newspaper; at least half of the African-Americans in Tennessee live in the Memphis metro area) this morning that said something to that effect, that the Tea Party movement is essentially racism in disguise... I'm having trouble remembering it, but I think that was the gist of it.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
MN-Gov
Former Governor Al Quie (Republican) is throwing his support behind Horner (Independence).

"Horner has been peeling away support from Emmer's Republican base. Several former legislators and at least one Republican mayor say they're backing Horner because they consider Emmer's budget plan "too extreme." "

http://minnesota.publicradio.o...

Brightens my day a little
Dayton will win if Horner takes more Emmer voters than Dayton voters, obviously.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Charlie Cook
I want him to be proven so wrong this year that he leaves the poly sci business for good. What can I say? He annoys me.
*High Five*
I want him to keep working, but I want him to be knocked down a peg.

Sadly, I think it would have to be Dems retain House to knock him down, even a GOP majority under 10 seats would still have him on a high horse.

Bring on the 2012 wave . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
he annoys me
too. But his predictions are usually accurate, and they are not that different from any other political forecasters.
[ Parent ]
Really?
I don't find him annoying.  I do find it a little odd that it seems like the political pundits jumped on the "this is a Republican wave year" bandwagon far earlier in this cycle than they did in the previous two cycles, though.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
he has an account here
so be careful what you say  ;)
[ Parent ]
oh yeah, that was when DavidNYC (and others) were pointing out
some flaws in how PVI was calculated, and corresponded with Cook about it. And Cook agreed and modified the PVI equation. And acknowledged that here on SSP, IIRC.
[ Parent ]
NM-2 poll
A Tarrance Group internal poll for Steve Pearce (R) conducted Oct. 19-20.

Steve Pearce (R) 50%
Harry Teague (D) 41%

350 LVs. 5.2 MoE

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

In other words...
This race is still close.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yeah...
...I guess that could be said. A big MoE, plus the usual bias of an internal poll.
[ Parent ]
Tarrance is not as poor quality of a pollster as POS
Worth noting that back in February, Tarrance saw this race as Pearce +4 with LV at the exact same time that PPP saw it +2 with RV.  Not to say there isn't some bias, I think this was probably a particular good polling period for them, but I also believe that Teague is probably really down by a bit.
[ Parent ]
It's probably still a close race, though
I doubt the final margin will be 9 points going either way.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
I think so too
Still, I don't think Pearce has this race locked up, and if Lt. Gov. Denish overperforms by a bit, it's a race Rep. Teague can win.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I'm convinced that
Republican polling firms purposely release results earlier in the cycle showing their candidates down for the sole purpose of claiming momentum later in the cycle. For all I know, Dem groups do it, too.
[ Parent ]
Classy move by Cedric Richmond
Today, Joseph Cao's father passed away at 78. In a very classy, but incredibly stupid move, Richmond has suspended his campaign for a grieving period for Cao's family. http://www.politico.com/news/s...
Could also mean he's cruising... n/t

[ Parent ]
Remember when John McCain wanted to do that in the 08 general?
Yeah, McCain was a moron.  I don't think it really hurt Richmond's chances though.  Cao is dead meat as it is.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Very respectful!
I don't see it harming Cedric at all.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
How is that stupid?
Not only is it what a decent human being should do, but it would be politically dumb to attack someone who just lost a family member and thus give him a sympathy boost.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
With less than 2 weeks left
To stop campaigning? If it was a few months out, it would make more sense.  
[ Parent ]
For my money...
I don't think the race is close enough for it to matter.

Agreed with those commenting on how much of a douchebag Rep. Cao is being by trying to score political points off of the Richmond campaign's suspension.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Phew, for a second there I thought Richmond said something insensitive


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I though the exact same thing!
I was in panic mode for all of 4 seconds.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Cao's an asshole
"Bizarre"? Fuck off. A simple "thank you" would have been nice

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Cao's spokesperson says she misinterpreted the question
In an interview Thursday evening, Brylski said she misinterpreted what the Politico correspondent asked, thinking that Richmond had issued a statement saying that Cao's campaign had been suspended.

"I did use the word 'bizarre' because I thought he said something other than what he said.'' Brylski said. "I told him we haven't suspended operations and that we are soldiering on.''

http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

It was a strange enough response that I actually believe her.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
You know what it made me think of?
Carly Fiorina talking about Whitman going on Hannity. The wording was almost the same, using bizarre twice: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
[ Parent ]
RIP
For all my differences with Rep. Cao it is nice that after all his father went through he lived long enough to see his son in Congress.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Cao to get big endorsemen in LA-02 this week?
There are rumors Cao is going to be endorsed by Deuce McCallister, beloved former Saint, this week. If he does, that would be huge.  
bill jefferson?
J/K ;)

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Will it?
I don't think it will. That's assuming AA voters care that a footballer endorses one person or another. We all know Cao only won because of the corruption of the last. He's gone nothing will change that.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
You obviously
Don't know Saints fans ;)
[ Parent ]
But I do...
because I was going to the games when they were 1-15...it will not matter...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Who needs Obama
when you got "Doooooce".  
[ Parent ]
Huge?
I know New Orleans loves the Saints but does the endorsement of any sports/entertainment figure carry any weight at all? I have been a big sports fan my entire life and I can't think of one player who's political views would have any impact on mine.

BTW Richmond comes of looking classy, Cao's campaign comes off looking bad with the Bizarre nonsense. And while I leave it to anyone to grieve however the want I do know people who would be put off by Cao's decision to keep campaigning immediately after his fathers death.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Curt Schilling
Wasn't he a big deal in the MA-Sen race?
[ Parent ]
Mostly because Martha Coakley
had no idea who he was.
[ Parent ]
MA
I don't think the issue is that Schilling endorsed Brown. It's common knowledge that Schilling is a Republican, so he would be expected to endorse other Republicans. As I understand it, Schilling had Brown as a guest on his radio show several times, which particularly helped Brown among younger guys who are ordinarily apolitical.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Only when Coakley called him a Yankee fan
Schilling actually flirted with running for the seat but couldn't get on the GOP primary ballot because he's unenrolled and didn't want to run an independent bid and hurt Brown. After Coakley's gaffe, he recorded a robocall and attended rallies with Brown the last few days (along with some other notable Boston sports celebs like Doug Flutie.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
They work
on the kind of people who vote for athletes like Jon Runyan, I guess.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
I don't see how an endorsement from a football player helps...
I live in DC but I am orignially from NOLA. I cannot see how Cao wins.  He would not have won at all but for running against a crook and he beat the crook by only 2,100 votes.  Unless its the Virgin Mary, it is not happening.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
part of the reason that Cao won
   was that the general election for congress was delayed past the presidential election because the primary (or runoff primary) was delayed by one of the hurricanes. If the congressional general election had been held on the same day that Obama was on the ballot most likely Jefferson would have won, frozen cash and all (because of the high AA turnout).

  Cao's election was a double fluke. Still I am glad he won to get rid of Jefferson. Now it is time for Cao to fade into obscurity after losing to Cedric the Legislator.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Some notes on Saint players endorsments
A few weeks ago I (half) joked that if Drew Brees endorsed the race was over.  Maybe if he did it that would make some waves, but I don't think in general any sports endorsement will make a massive difference anywhere.

Something to consider: during this year's New Orleans Mayoral race, which was held at the absolute height of Saints fever (one day before the Superbowl in fact) candidate Troy Henry ran an ad with Deuce McAllister.  Troy Henry did not get close to winning.  https://www.neworleans.com/blo...

New Orleans loves its Saints but I think most people divide Sports from politics enough that they can vote against beloved icons.



21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
MA-4
WPRI Poll: Rep. Frank (D) leads Bielat (R) 49-37.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
sort of
matches the internal. Bielat is giving him a good fight, but an upset is unlikely.
[ Parent ]
Looks plausible to me
I actually wouldn't mind seeing Rep. Frank bounced out, but a) I think it's unlikely, and b) Bielat doesn't really seem my speed either.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Believable
That is where Scott Brown was in some polls 2 weeks out, but I know one thing: Barney Frank is no Martha Coakley.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
New CT-Sen billboard near Bridgeport I-95:
LINDA
Because She's Bought Everything Else!

http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/di...

Wow
Thats great. surprised we haven't seen those in CA with eMeg.  
[ Parent ]
That's because eMeg already bought them all :)
n/m

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
New Critical Insights Polls
ME-GOV: LePage leads Mitchell and Cutler 32-20-19. ME-1: Pingree +5 only, ME-2: Michaud +19, big MoE for House races. Mitchell must be HATED very much in Maine, only explanation

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
I have another explanation
Critical Insights is a GOP pollster.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
third explanation
they don't knoweither one very much, but mitchell is ughh, lepage is eww and cutler is meh.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Libby Mitchell
Well... Almost every poll has shown Mitchell in the 20s.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
i think part of the problem might be that
she's considered an "intellectual, limousine liberal" that works in portland and MAYBE Bangor, but won't fly in ME-02 which is rural, blue collar and rather poor.

HOWEVER, no one has really gained in the last few weeks, except for undecided.  lepage has fallen while the others are flatlined.  eventually they will HAVE to make a choice.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
that should read "the rest of ME-02"
bangor is part of the district, but even they aren't that welcoming to the big city liberal/progressive.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
But she's been in the high 20s lately
And Critical Insights has consistently oversampled Republicans in their polls.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Why do you keep
reporting the results of GOP polls without mentioning that they are GOP polls? And no links...I'm sorry, but it's quite misleading.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Don't know if this is already been posted but..
California State Senator Jenny Oropeza (D-Long Beach) died at 53 today. Her name is still on the ballot, and will apparently have a special election somewhere in December.

http://www.lbpost.com/ryan/10563

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

If he loses
Would there still be a special election?  
[ Parent ]
She won't lose
   It is a safe Democratic district. Several years ago we had a similar situation when L.A. County Sheriff Sherman Block died a week before the election. I voted for him on election day out of the sheer novelty of being able to vote for a dead guy. However, he lost to Lee Baca, who has been the Sheriff ever since. Because Baca won and Block lost the election there was no need for a special election as there was no vacancy.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
WTF?!
Jenny was my Senator.  I didn't even know she was ill.  RIP...

After an appropriate mourning period, Ted Lieu will probably run in the special and win in a walk.

[ Parent ]
Is Lieu even in the same SD?
   Of course he could move if needed but I wouldn't think he is in that district. He would be a good replacement, though. I thought it was a shame when Laura Richardson beat Oropeza in that special election for CA-37 a few years ago (after Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald passed away).

  Senator Oropeza will be missed by many Californians.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Geographically, Lieu is a better fit than Oropeza
He and I both live in Torrance.  CA-SD-28 is focused on the South Bay, largely overlapping with CA-36 plus a relatively small portion of CA-37.  It's Debra Bowen's old district.

It is conceivable that we could get a more liberal candidate than Lieu, though.  I was rather surprised when Oropeza beat longtime Torrance city councilman and Assemblyman George Nakano in the 2006 Democratic primary.  I voted for Oropeza, but figured her for a 10-15 point underdog.

(For non-Californians reading this, we have 40 state Senate districts and 53 U.S. House districts, so the former are larger than the latter.  If that disturbs you, there are only five Los Angeles County Supervisors, each representing a district comprising approximately 2,000,000 people.)

[ Parent ]
Thanks for that info
   After posting I was looking at the SacBee online and there was a quote from Lieu praising her as his Senator.

  Since term limits came into CA there always seems to be a game of political musical chairs going on. I would expect there will be at least a few candidates for that seat and not just "some dudes". The NorCal vacancy resulting from the death of Sen. Cox has produced three or four viable candidates (all GOP unfortunately in that district).

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
RI-GOV
Saw WPRI report today that the RGA is going up with late ads in RI, I think that it's quite smart and there's a possibility of a GOP victory a la HI-1, they seems to see that Caprio and Chafee are splitting the left of center and center votes, propping up Robitaille (R) to get 38% is "possible", Chafee can lose remaining GOP support a la Crist.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Um.
According to the Pollster.com chart, Robitaille currently has all of 17% of the vote, against 28% for Chafee and 33% for Caprio, the Dem.

That is not equivalent or even remotely similar, really, to where the Florida race was at before Crist started sinking. Even at Crist's high-point in the polls, Rubio was running just a couple of percentage points behind him, and far ahead of Meek. Robitaille, who is running a distant third, is far worse off than Rubio ever was.

Moreover, of course, Rubio started siphoning off Crist's remaining GOP results back in August. The chance that Robitaille could effect a similar voter shift just two weeks before the elections are remote.

Finally, the Dem in the race, Caprio, is already running to the right of Chafee. So if remaining GOP backers of Chafee could be scared off by reminders of Chafee's liberal politics, it would already have happened.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
Interesting
You know, I don't at all think that they are going to do it, but the fact is that the GOP has a chance in every Gov race other than NY and AR from where I sit.  CT and Maryland would be upsets, but not totally shocking, you know?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
They don't have a chance in hell
in RI.  The RGA just has too much money and has to put it somewhere.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Trust me, they have no chance in RI.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
LOL
sorry, anybody who's actually set foot in the state of RI knows how ridiculous this post is. And you didn't even provide a link. Super-sketch.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Just got polled by the republican party of wisconsin.
It was a robopoll, no leading questions, but they did have all the republican candidates as press one but i doubt that makes much of a difference.

Also i went to a debate between Sean Duffy and Julie Lassa last night.

20, male, independent, WI-07.

How did the candidates do
and what did they argue about?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
WA-8 still a 7 point margin for Reichert
Look forward to seeing the crosstabs
Hope they'll be available
[ Parent ]
Then again, it's SurveyUSA...
Who knows? I think it's still winnable for DelBene, although Rep. Reichert probably has the edge.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Still a competitive race...
This has snuck up on people, the conventional wisdom was that if Reichert could survive the D Wave in 2006/08 he should be in good shape this year.  Perhaps he got overconfident, between that and his medical problems, I have been struck by the weakness of his campaign this year.  He let Delbane go on the air unopposed for at least 2 weeks, and when his ads finally hit the air I thought the were pretty weak.

I know Obama was in town today for a big rally, I'm curious if Delbane attended.  

[ Parent ]
Fool's gold
I'm looking at the final 4 polls from the 2008 Reichert vs Burner contest listed on pollster.com. And she was AHEAD in three of those.
(note: that 4th one was a dKos/R2000 poll, so likely fraudulent).

And 2008 was of course a wave year. And Obama won WA-08 by 15 points!
But Reichert still wound up winning by 6 points. People in that CD just like him

[ Parent ]
Reichert is still the favorite...
I agree.
[ Parent ]
I don't know i'm pretty sure hes made more dumb mistakes
this time around but that said you could be right it could be simliar to Gerlach the guy who will never fall below 51% but never break 53%

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
CA-Gov : Bloomberg to stump for Whitman
Exactly the optics she needs!
The millionaire technocrat who has spent nearly $150 million on her campaign is bringing in millionaire technocrats from around the country to campaign for her!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Man!...
...I still can't believe Obama didn't stump for Democrat Bill Thompson in the 2009 NYC Mayoral race. I believe if Obama had, we would be talking about Mayor Thompson, and arguably the media storyline of that night ("Republicans win gubernatorial races") would've been different.
[ Parent ]
Highly doubtful
A key part of why Bloomberg underperformed that evening was, by that point, with 20-point margins in every single public poll, his supporters become entirely complacent. They figured he had it in the bag and never bothered to construct a meaty GOTV operation. It's not that Thompson got an above-average # of votes for a Democratic mayoral candidate...it's that Bloomberg was below-average in his take. Had Obama endorsed Thompson, the Bloomberg camp would've made a real effort and probably actually won by more. Keep in mind, Bill Clinton stumped for both Mark Green and Freddie Ferrer.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
PA-11 back in action?
NRCC just charged a new survey and media production
The volatility of House races
is amazing. More vulnerable candidates prove tougher to knock out than expected. Seemingly safe candidates have new weaknesses exposed.

It's a roller-coaster ride. And exciting to watch - though I much prefer it when the wave is rolling in the other direction.

[ Parent ]
FL-22 poll
This is the one that was reported earlier today. It was conducted by Voter Survey Service for the (apparently conservative) Sunshine State News.

Oct. 17-19. 3.46% MoE. It showed...

Allen West (R) 47%
Ron Klein (D) 44%
Undecided 9%

The partisan make-up of the sample is 44% Republicans, 39% Democrats.

http://www.sunshinestatenews.c...

I couldn't find an accurate partisan breakdown of FL-22, but I did find the Sept. 20-22 Harstad poll which claims to have an "accurate" party composition of FL-22 in its poll.

The make-up of the Harstad poll was 40% Republicans, 38% Democrats.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com...

A 5 percentage point advantage for Repubs in FL-22 vs. a 2 percentage point advantage?

Not
Not unheard up in a year like this.  We'll see how it turns out.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
The district was drawn as a GOP vote sink
But then again, not a lot of Republicans to start with in that part of Florida.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Grijalva's office threatened, closed for afternoon
U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva's congressional office is closed this afternoon as police respond to a suspicious piece of mail.

An envelope arrived with swastikas drawn on the outside and a white powdery substance on the inside, said Adam Sarvana, Grijalva's spokesman.

The office is on lockdown as police investigate. Those outside the office are not allowed in, and the workers and constituents inside are not allowed to leave until police clear the scene, Sarvana said.

Preliminary health checks show those in the office are OK, but further testing is needed because the substance has not been identified, Sarvana said.

http://azstarnet.com/news/blog...

New Polls
EPIC-MRA Polls: MI-3: Amash leads 46-37, MI-15: Dingell ahead 53-36

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Link?
If it was any year, Amash wouldn't win...that's a moderate district. Has Vern Ehlers endorsed Amash?

And Dingell ... not in trouble...but I hope he retires in 2012.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
Ehlers endorsed Amash quite a while ago
And even in a neutral or decently Dem year, Amash WOULD win. This district is quite conservative compared to Miles. He would have to hope for astronomical black turnout from Grand Rapids and disinterest from all of its suburbs to have a prayer.

Amash is very conservative, but he's also young, well-spoken and appealing. He posts the rationale for all of his votes on his Facebook page and has a rule not to vote for a bill unless he's read it--regardless of who introduced it. I don't agree with him on social issues at all, but I'd love to have him as my Rep. nonetheless.

[ Parent ]
KY-6
Tomorrow at 6pm we'll get a Mason-Dixon KY-6 poll

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Clark County, NV, voter registration changes
In the last three months, about 25,000 new voters registered in Clark County.

37.3% were Democrats. 27.3% were independents. 25.8% were Republicans. 9.6% were for other parties.

http://media.lasvegassun.com/m...

What could this possibly mean for NV-Sen or NV-3? I'm stumped.

Titus
has a Democratic voter advantage of about 26.5k, though there are also about 90k unaffiliated or third-party registrants.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget that West Coast states poll is still open at PPP
Right now Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Texas are winning.

Arizona's a waste of time, (Goddard is not going to win), and Iowa is going to be polled by Sezler next week.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Those are the races that should be polled.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I'd rather see Oregon than Minnesota
But Wisconsin and Texas are good calls.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Danny Davis leaks (some of) his polling data
http://blogs.suntimes.com/swee...

By far, Tom Dart posts the strongest marks w/ a 77% favorable rating. Emanuel's at 68% favorability, Davis is at 66%, Moseley-Braun at 56%, Meeks at 47%, and Jesse Jackson Jr. is way behind at 32%.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

A guess.
(this assumes the R's win the House) Gutierrez will get back into the race after Nov 2.  Since a free shot at becoming mayor will look good vs being in the now powerless minority.
And if he loses, he still has his regular IL-04 job.
[ Parent ]
CT-04 / Hartford Courant endorses Jim Himes
We endorse Mr. Himes for re-election as a thoughtful, independent moderate with the right resume to represent the great diversity of the district, from hedge-fund firms in Westport to the struggling city of Bridgeport.

http://www.courant.com/news/op...

I can only expect...
...that Himes will come through and win that. I'm mean, freakin' Linda McMahon is the top Republican on the ballot. That's enough lameness to spoil all CT Repubs for years.
[ Parent ]
I want to have Matt Taibbi's babies
Metaphorically, of course. But actually, I disagree with Crisitunity.

I think the best part of the piece is his summary of Paul, delivered with Taibbi's trademark vampire-squid directness:

There are a lot of things to criticize about Rand Paul, and a lot of liberal critics have focused on his far-out views on the Civil Rights Act and pegged him as a closet racist, but to me that's not the key with this guy. Far more important is that he just seems like an overgrown adolescent and a dick.

One reporter I talked to in Kentucky put it this way: "He's just the prototypical spoiled college douchebag," the reporter said. "He's every rich kid you knew in college who read The Fountainhead once and loved the idea that sharing is immoral."



Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
Now I know where
I saw Rand Paul before! I wonder what his father truly thinks of him?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Wow!
   Rand Paul is my cousin.  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Nailed It!
If you took Honors classes in high school and went to a high-end college, you can't help but know at least a few of these people. And you just hope enough of them eventually grow out of it. Sometimes they do and sometimes they never do.

The interesting electoral angle here is that even a fair number of these people had zero use for the religious right and may have been turned off of the GOP for a while for that reason.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Seems like a lot has happened this last week
My wife was involved in a horse accident on Monday, fracturing her left tibia, along with a hairline fracture of her skull.  I've been running around with my head cut off...my 9 year old daughter was with her alone when it happened.

I'm hoping that we will fool the experts and kick some GOP ass this year.  Having spent the last 3 days at the Duke hospital has recharged my jets on why we need to keep the Democrats in power.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Woah, hope your wife recovers OK and all of you are better emotionally......
I, too, am a husband and dad, with a daughter and son, and I always worry about stuff happening, someone getting hurt.  We've all got strep now!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Thanks man
Right now, I have a wonderful support staff, but I still have pangs of guilt for what had happened.  My 9 year old daughter saved my wife's life.  The horse kicked my wife in the back of the head (with the hind legs) and then stepped on her.  My daughter ran the horse away and helped her regain consciousness.  She kept on asking "What's your name?  What's my name?  Are you married?  What's your husband's name?  What color is the sky?"  

There doesn't appear to be any permanent damage, but I'm going to take a leave of absence during this ordeal.  Life will go on.

Thanks to all members of SSP nation for the good vibes...I really need them.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
i hope your wife recovers quickly
i live over in carrboro, and I'm sending good vibes to you and your family.
[ Parent ]
I live in Hillsborough
If you are going to get freakishly hurt in NC, there's not a better place to be then the RTP area.  We have some amazing hospitals.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
So sorry to hear this
All my best to all of you.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Thank you
n/t

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Two of my good friends were at Duke Hospital this week
one for heart arrhythmia and the other for a concussion.

But best wishes for a speed recovery!  

[ Parent ]
Thanks
n/t

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
I hope your wife is okay
 Sorry about the horse accident.

I think it's going around here in CA too. One friend sprained his wrist while another one sprained his leg. The one with the hurt leg was on the running team so it was pretty hard for him.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Sorry to hear that
I'd rather sprain my wrist than hurt my leg.  With a wrist, you can still walk and go places.  With a leg, well, it's just hard!

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: GOP State Sen. Dean Rhoads endorses Harry Reid.
He represents all of rural Nevada.
http://www.harryreid.com/index...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
So hard to see how Angle wins this way...
She can run as the anti-establishment candidate, but everyone who knows anything is saying she's not right for Nevada.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
what worries me is
as weak as she is, and despite all the Republicans for Reid, he still doesn't seem to be putting her away. How can he still be below 50 percent in the polls? Hope the Nevada Dem GOTV is strong.
[ Parent ]
In his defense
it's not as if Reid has been racking up Schumer-like margins.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
He doesn't need 50%...
There will be 2-3% who vote for Ashjian and another few percent who vote "none of these."

But I hear what you're saying. It's frustrating that he hasn't been able to pull away, given how awful she is. But the state is in a very bad recession (worse than almost anywhere else) and he's not the most charismatic of senators.

So I doubt we'll exceed a very slim win percentage. And I'm hopeful we'll get it.

[ Parent ]
That's
the beauty of these races. All that's needed is a win for everyone but the safest of the safe, like Chuck Schumer, and especially for someone like Jack Conway.

It might be annoying to deal with the comments from the chowder heads on the right, but that'll last for a week, at most. After that, their energy can be devoted to rebuilding their coalition.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
For me...
I've already identified my "champagne candidates". If Atty. Gen. Conway, Rep. Sestak, Alex Sink, Bill White, John Kitzhaber, Ann McLane Kuster, Rep. Giffords, Rep. Pomeroy, Jon Hulburd, Gov. Strickland, Susan DelBene, Rep. Schrader, Mayor McAdams, or Sen. Reid win, I'm just going to up and call it an okay night, and celebrate accordingly.

A few things can counteract that triumph: Gov.-elect Tancredo, Sen.-elect Fiorina, Rep.-elect Robinson, and Gov.-elect Foley spring most immediately to mind. Fortunately, all are unlikely.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Well,
only one of your list of dreaded candidates seems to stand more than outside shot of winning. I can't say I expect Fiorina to win, but it wouldn't shock me if she did.

Out of your "champagne candidates," I not sure what to think. I believe the Senate will see much better results for the Democrats than the House. Call me crazy, but I somehow envision small wins for the majority of their candidates, barring some absolute collapse in the polls in the next week. It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see Giannoulas, Bennet, Conway, Sestak, Reid, and Feingold win, although there's bound to be one loss. If I had to pick one guy, it'd actually be Feingold. I don't consider Boxer, Murray, or Blumenthal to be in serious trouble. I don't know what to think about McAdams, although I guess it wouldn't surprise me to see him win but someone like Conway lose.

As far as the House, if we can pick up at least four seats, and there's not that much of a drop off for us, I think we hold the House. If I can see further movement for someone like Ami Bera in CA-03, and a few others, I will stand firmer on that belief. They need 39 to take it outright, but if you figure that we are going to win at least four seats, that number becomes 43. A few more inches us towards 50, which is what some are predicting.

Or, to think of it another way, let's start out by assuming that we are going to lose 50, all from a list of candidates likely to fall. In that case, things are bad, but nowhere near as bad as losing 60 or more seats. need to chip that number down. We win four of their seats, so we are down to 46. Then we have strong finishes (even if they lose) or convincing wins from candidates like Culver or Cuomo or Strickland in governor races or from Sestak in Senate races. You have to think that strong finishes from these races saves a few candidates in New York, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, or somewhere similar. Let's just say that we save one from each state that might have otherwise gone to the Republicans. That brings us down to 43. Is it really insane to think that we could somehow salvage four or five other seats to leave us holding the House in a squeaker, or even more for slightly better win?

It's a lot more complex than I am making it sound, but unless things end up going really, really, really badly for the Democrats, my gut tells me that they have enough things going right for them that holding the House is possible.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
MI-03
I'd been saying it all along, but the race in heavily Republican MI-03 is actually looking as if it can be competitive in these last weeks.

According to an EPIC-MRA poll conducted October 18 & 19:

Justin Amash (R): 46%
Pat Miles (D): 37%
Undecided: 9%
Other: 8%

Miles is actually leading Amash with independents 46% to 27%, with the problem being that there aren't that many independents in this red district.

Anyone who knows this district knows that these are some pretty shocking numbers.  Again, I don't predict a Miles win, but it'll be very interesting to see how close this gets, and regardless it shows that this is a district in play for Dems in the future.


MI-15
BTW, a nail in the coffin of the silly poll a few weeks back showing John Dingell in trouble in Michigan's 15th:


Free Press-WXYZ TV (EPIC/MRA):

John Dingell (D): 53%
Rob Steele (R): 36%
Other: 6%
Undecided: 5%

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

Sure, Dingell is slipping a little bit in this Republican year, but he's not in any danger.

Obama's rally schedule for the last weekend before
election day:

The president will attend "Get out the vote" rallies in Philadelphia, Pa., Bridgeport, Conn., and Chicago, Ill. on Sat., Oct. 30, and cap off his swing with another speech in Cleveland, Ohio on Sun., Oct. 31.

Why CT?
Interesting. I'll definitely be there, but I wonder why he chose here.
[ Parent ]
I was surprised by that as well.
I would have preferred upstate NY to try to keep those House seats. But, I am guessing they know more about where they are needed than I do.
[ Parent ]
Probably 'cos he was asked...
I imagine that Blumenthal is taking no chances!  I'd lay it on thick, too, if I could!
[ Parent ]
Will benefit Himes too...
because he needs Bridgeport to win. That's essentially the key to CT-04 for a Democrat. And it's where WWE is holding a free event on Tuesday evening to mess with the vote.
[ Parent ]
I think they worry about the combination of McMahon's money and the environment......
They're looking to avoid a surprise.  McMahon seemed to get it tightened up once before this fall before falling back, and Dems don't want to take any chances against a Republican who can write her own checks.  We have, in fact, had trouble with ALL other Republicans who are able to do that.

I think in another year they wouldn't bother, they'd assume this one is done.  But so many House races have become unpleasant surprises very late, and even now in the Senate there is chatter, no way to know yet if with merit, that Washington and California are tightening anew and the GOP can win them.  So they don't want McMahon surging in CT at the end......and they probably know what size ad buys she's made at the end, and I bet it's huge.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Sounds good to me!
I shook the president's hand at his Hartford rally on Super Tuesday Eve in 2008, and perhaps I'll get my second chance. :)
[ Parent ]
it doesn't sound good to me
he's been to the state what, four times this year, hell probably in the last two months, and he's never ventured more than 20 miles past NYC.  what about those of use who want to go, but don't want to go that far? there's more to connecticut than just the NYC burbs.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I don't know much
about the overlap, but I do there is some, because I see ads for Connecticut and New Jersey races all the time and I live in New York. Is it possible that he's doing the largest area to both target as many people as possible in the state but also in surrounding states?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Um, it's only an hour drive,
hour and a half tops, from anywhere in the state.

I think you'd be able to make it if you really wanted to. :)

Plus, the biggest battleground seems to be southwestern CT, and he could really help unlock the urban vote there.

If he's going to come to CT, I can't think of a better place strategically to visit.

[ Parent ]
not if you don't have a car
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Lots of focus on Connecticut
Either DSCC internals are showing a lot tighter race than we're thinking, or there are some other reasons...maybe President Obama wants a better track record campaigning for New England attorneys general trying to make U.S. Senate?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Charlie cook only moved to to Lean Dem today...
...despite a Suffolk poll coming out that had Blumenthal way ahead.

Not sure what is going on... Cornyn also claimed eariler this week that McMahon would win. Does she have some other trick up her sleeve?  A late surprise?

[ Parent ]
If she had a late surprise,
why would she have dredged up the issues with his claims about Vietnam? I mean, maybe she's waiting until the end of next week, but isn't that just a little too late?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I don't know what's going on, really...
All the public polls are enormously in his favor, yet the parties are acting like it's a tossup.
[ Parent ]
Reminds me of PA in 08
When there was continued buzz about the race, even though public polling showed Obama with a solid lead of like 8 to 15 points. I believe he ended winning by 10.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
VA-05 poll
Hurt 47, Perriello 46
Benenson (D)

https://twitter.com/polltrack/...

No one is giving up on this race
It seems like he's consistently a few points behind, but it's going to be fought out to the end.
[ Parent ]
Some of these
Reps, especially the ones in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, remind me of watching a high school wrestler or tennis player who keeps getting tossed around or having the ball launched back at him harder and harder. Every time it seems to get a little better, the person gets twisted in a new direction or has a ball hit further out of his reach. And yet, they don't give up.

I hope there's some decent polling in the next few days so that these guys keep up the fight. It's kind of inspiring to see.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
A game SSPers will love
I have played that
 It's a pretty interesting game. You predict who wins and although you're more accurate if you predict later, you get more points if you predict now.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
PA-06
   Monmouth has Gerlach over Trivedi 54-44.

24, Male, GA-05
LA-Sen: Vitter picks up endorsements from 30 Dem elected officials, Melancon gets Mayor Landrieu
Dem state senators, parish presidents, DA's, sheriffs, and local officials endorsed Vitter today:
http://www.davidvitter.com/sit...
NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu endorsed Melancon: http://www.nola.com/politics/i...  
IA-Gov
The final Culver-Branstad debate was today. I thought Culver did very well. Branstad didn't make any game-changing mistakes, but I think Culver probably made the sale with some Ds and Is who used to like him but weren't sold on a second term.

If he cuts Branstad's margin it will greatly improve Dem chances of holding the Iowa House and minimizing losses in the Iowa Senate.  

Iowa AG race
Getting very concerned about this one--the Iowa GOP has put huge money behind Steve King's chief of staff Brenna Findley. She has been able to outspend the incumbent. He has totally failed to define her, and the GOP have put huge money behind her. They are counting on Terry Branstad's coattails to put her over the top. Branstad has been talking her up all year and makes an appearance in her latest tv ad.
Muhlenberg Tracking poll, Day 3
PA-Sen:

Joe Sestak (D) 43%
Pat Toomey (R) 43%

PA-Gov

Tom Corbett (R) 49%
Dan Onorato (D) 40%

At least according to Morning Call's website graphic.

Wow...
I'm surprised Sestak held. I thought he'd slide, after what seemed to be a weak polling day yesterday.
[ Parent ]
Both seem completely spot-on
No way has Onorato pulled within 2.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: New Early Vote Totals for Washoe Co.
No difference.
Dems at 39.3%, GOP at 45%

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/vot...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Nate Silver updates Senate numbers
He sees a 52/48 Senate but has 8 Democratic seats more likely to flip than not. West Virginia is barely below the line, he sees the race as a tie and makes Manchin the 51:49 favorite.

Nate also still has Toomey as an 84% favorite, which I don't get. He equates the Sestak surge to the Fiorina surge, and says that despite their improvements in the polls they are still down. The difference, at least for me, is that Fiorina lives in a big early-voting state, while Sestak has the full 11 (God, is that all that's left ?!?) days to make his case.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Difference also is...
... that all recent public polls have shown Boxer ahead, and by as much as 6%. Whereas two public polls this week have shown Sestak up.  
[ Parent ]
Nate is counting the Wilson poll (Fiorina + 3)
He says the firm normally leans R, but for some reason this poll counts for his model. He's also counting the recent Toomey +10 poll from Ras. Both questionable calls.

Nate has been really R-friendly this year, which shocks me after his public option obsession that lasted for almost all of 2009. Perhaps it's the NYT factor, but then again, that's not exactly a conservative paper.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Are New York ballot initiatives relevant in this thread
or should I wait for an open thread? I know there are two of them; the first is on term limits, but the second one, I hear, is long and covers something like 7 different points. I did a web search for "New York ballot initiatives 2010" and didn't actually find the text of the 2nd initiative.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
KY-Sen: A TPM correspondent down in Kentucky reports on the post-Aqua Buddha ad environment.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...
It seems to have shaken some peoples' confidence in Rand Paul since Paul is so evasive about his college days and doesn't say something akin to "I was young and foolish, but I grew up ages ago."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Hope he decides not to debate...
I think he will decide to debate after all, but Paul is such a dick, it wouldn't surprise me if he opted to coast instead. In which case, we might have a Sen. Conway after all.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Oh God
Senator Conway, you are so CLOSE!!!  I would be astounded if Conway wins and someone like Giannoulias doesn't.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Sink/Scott tied in R leaning poll
Dingell up by 17
Onorato trails by 5 in Q poll
49-44.  Down from 15 in previous poll.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

No wonder Corbett is going hard negative.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Is he, really? That's another tea leaf to confirm PA-Gov really is closing......
PPP and Q-Poll and Corbett going hard negative, if true, are enough to conclude fairly that PA-Gov is getting scary for the GOP.

I'd be shocked if Onorato won, but even keeping it close helps Sestak, and Onorato and Sestak keeping it close or one or both winning obviously helps bigtime downballot.

That the surge is coming from base Democrats waking up helps even more, since that's where coattails come from.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I've seen quite a few anti-Onoroto ads lately.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Afternoon Edition) | 247 comments

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