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SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 3:35 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: Where even to start in Alaska? With vague reports of Joe Miller in "free fall" in private polling, both the NRSC and his own personal kingmaker, Jim DeMint, are having to step in with advertising in order to back him up. The NRSC's buy is for $162K, which I'm sure they'd rather spend putting out fires in Pennsylvania and Kentucky instead of on a should-have-been-sure-thing... and the ad (which focuses on Barack Obama, not Lisa Murkowski or Scott McAdams) can be seen here. DeMint's ad is for $100K and touts Miller's pro-life credentials.

Meanwhile, the drip-drip of unsavory stuff from Miller's past keeps coming. It turns out he worked for one of Alaska's top law firms after graduating from Yale, prior to sliding down the food chain to working for the borough of Fairbanks; while they wouldn't elaborate because of personnel policies, a firm partner said they were "not eager" to have him stay on and "relieved" when he left after three years. Also, a CPA with commercial property knowledge should double-check a look at this story before we start alleging wrongdoing, but it's an interesting catch: Miller may have been paying himself ridiculously-above-market rents on the law office he owned, in order to game his taxes. And finally, with the damage already done, it looks like no charges will be filed in the "irrational blogger" handcuffing incident, either against Tony Hopfinger or Miller's hired goons.

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway succeeded in getting an NRSC ad pulled from a local TV station, seeing as how the whole premise was based on a lie (that Conway has supported cap-and-trade). WHAS-TV pulled the ad after the NRSC was unable to provide convincing sources for the alleged quotes.

• MO-Sen: This might be too little too late, but Roy Blunt is the third Republican candidate in the last month to get a bad case of housekeeper-itis. State Democrats released documents yesterday showing that in 1990 Blunt hired an "illegal worker" and then tried to expedite the citizenship process for her. Blunt's campaign says she never worked directly for them, only for some church events, but the documents say she had "done some work" for Blunt's wife at the time.

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer, one of the few people anywhere routinely polling over 60%, has decided to dole out more of his gigantic war chest to other Democrats rather than spending it on himself. (It may not be entirely altruistic, as he may still have a Majority Leader battle in mind if Harry Reid can't pull it out.) In recent weeks, he gave an additional $1 million (on top of a previous $2 mil) to the DSCC. He's also given widely to state parties, including $250K in both New York and Nevada, as well as smaller amounts in 11 other states.

• PA-Sen: Before you get too excited about the major shift in polling in the Pennsylvania Senate race, absentee ballot numbers out of the Keystone State should be considered a dash of cold water. Of the 127,000 absentee ballots requested, Republicans have requested 50% and Dems have requested 42%, and also returning them at a faster clip. (I'm sure you could parse that by saying that Republican voters are likely to be older and thus less likely to want to vote in person, but either way it's not an encouraging figure.)

• WV-Sen: Rush Limbaugh's endorsement of John Raese last week -- apparently predicated on the fact that they have lockers near each other at an expensive private country club in Palm Beach, Florida -- may have done more damage to Raese beyond the obvious problem of making him look like a rich, entitled carpetbagger. After a little digging, it turns out that the Everglades Club is an all-white affair. Although it doesn't have specific membership requirements, it's never had a black member, and only one Jewish member. (In fact, remember that membership in this club was considered one of the disqualifying factors when Limbaugh was making noises about buying the St. Louis Rams several years back.)

• CO-Gov: Credit Dan Maes for entrepreneurial spirit: when he needed a job, he created one for himself... running for Governor. In the last year, Maes' campaign has reimbursed his family $72K. That's actually his campaign's second-biggest expense, and nearly one-third of the paltry $304K he's raised all along. Maes says much of that money was "mileage," though.

• OR-Gov: Here's something that we've been seeing almost nothing of this cycle, even though we saw a lot of it in 2008 (especially in Oregon, with Gordon Smith): kissing up to Barack Obama. But that's what Chris Dudley did in an open letter published as a print ad in the Oregonian this week, saying that while they might have their differences he'll work together with him on educational issues (one area where Dudley's been making some Democratic-sounding promises, albeit without any discussion of how to do that and pay for his tax cuts at the same time). With Barack Obama more popular in Oregon than much of the nation, and about to host a large rally with John Kitzhaber, the timing is not surprising.

• MA-04: I don't know if Barney Frank knows something that his own internals aren't telling us, or if he just believes in not leaving anything to chance, but he's lending himself $200K out of his own wallet to fund the stretch run in his mildly-interesting House race.

• MA-10: The illegal strip search issue (where Jeff Perry, then a police sergeant, failed to stop an underling from strip searching two teenage girls) is back in the media spotlight in a big way today, with one of the victims ending her silence and speaking to the press. Perry has defended himself saying it wasn't "in my presence," but she says he was a whole 15 feet away, and that he tried to cover up the incident.

• NJ-03: It seems like every day the honor of dumbest person running for office changes, and today the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Jon Runyan. When asked in a debate what Supreme Court case of the last 10 or 15 years he disagrees with, Runyan's answer was Dred Scott. As TPM's David Kurtz says, given the crop of GOPers this year, maybe we should just be grateful that he disagrees with Dred Scott.

• VA-05: If Tom Perriello loses this cycle, he's one guy who can walk out with his head held high:

In return, Hurt asked Perriello if he was willing to admit his votes on stimulus funding, health care and energy were mistakes.
Perriello stood behind his votes and the positive impact he says they have had or will have on the district....

"Leadership is about making tough decisions," he said.

• IA-St. House: The Iowa state House is one of the most hotly contested (and likeliest to flip to the GOP) chambers in the nation this cycle, and here's a Des Moines Register analysis of the 23 biggest races to watch in that chamber. (Bear in mind, though, that although Iowa is on track to lose a House seat, it uses independent commission redistricting, so the state legislature is not pivotal in that aspect.)

• DNC: The DNC somehow raised $11.1 million in the first 13 days of October, putting them on track for one of their best months ever for a midterm election. Wondering what's happening with that money? The DNC is out with a new TV ad of their own, saying don't go back to failed Republican policies and decrying the flow of outside money into this election. I have no idea where it's running, but the non-specificness of the pitch leaves me wondering if it'll run in nationwide contexts. (The DNC is also running $3 million in radio ads on nationally syndicated programs, particularly targeted to black audiences.)

• Independent expenditures:
• America's Families First Action Fund (all anti-GOP buys): ND-AL, FL-02, WI-08, VA-05, AZ-07, WI-07
• NRSC (variety of buys, including Alaska)
• AFSCME (all anti-GOP, naturally): OH-16, MI-07, CO-Sen, PA-03
• Hospital PAC (multiple buys, all pro-GOP)
• First Amendment Alliance (anti-Joe Manchin)

• SSP TV:
• IL-Sen: Someone called WFUPAC (funded by SEIU and AFT) hits Mark Kirk for being buddy-buddy with George W. Bush in the bad ol' days
• NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte's out with a boilerplate litany of everything Dems have done wrong
• WV-Sen: The NRSC returns to the "Manchin's a good governor, keep him here, and send a message to Obama" theme
• MN-01: The DCCC has to push the playing field boundaries a little further with their first ad in the 1st, hitting Randy Demmer on Social Security privatization
• NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster has two different ads out, both on outsourcing and job creation, one hitting Charlie Bass and one positive
• PA-03: Here's that AFSCME ad (see above for the IE) hitting Mike Kelly
• PA-06: Manan Trivedi says Washington hasn't been listening to you
• WA-08: Suzan DelBene's fourth ad touts her as "smart moderate" and wields her Seattle Times endorsement

• Rasmussen:
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 50%
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 43%, Charlie Crist (I) 32%
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 50%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Afternoon Edition) | 356 comments
Another 50-43 generic
AP/GfK.  Identical numbers to WSJ/NBC poll yesterday.  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

A seven point margin would convert to a loss of 50-55 seats.  Unless this is a year where the generic and seat by seat diverge.

There seems to be several different studies of that
That say different things. The other point I would make is the fact all this race-by-race polling shows people saying they want to vote generic R but are actually voting for the Democrat. I think if they do take control it won't be by much. Down a net 50 seats is still the upper limit IMO.
[ Parent ]
Generic Ballot and District Polling
Um, The Hill and others released recently public idependent polls that have dozens of Dems trailing, so I don't get your point that the generic is separated from House polling.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Those aren't the only polls

[ Parent ]
The Hill Polls
Oh, C'mon! Almost none of their polls that had Dems trailing, was contradicted by other independent polls! Yes, PA-8 that they have Murphy ahead, there were 2-3 polls that had Fitzpatrick ahead and their tie in PA-10, there were 2 public polls that had Marino ahead recently.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
C'mon yourself
Where did I say those polls were wrong? They are all tossups except Arcuri. The point I was making is there have been many other polls of many other districts saying exactly what I did say - the named Democrat leads at the same time as Generic R.
[ Parent ]
No
In polls within the MoE, no one is "trailing." That's not "technically," that's really, no ifs ands or yeah-buts. It means the sample cannot tell us who's really ahead, AT ALL, not even who's likely ahead to any significant degree. And that's not even mentioning the huge question of who the undecideds are in these races. It's quite common to be even in the toplines but in great position in reality because all the undecideds are Dems, or whatever.

For a political site, it's amazing how often this has to be pointed out.  

[ Parent ]
Nate Silver
has stated that people who make your argument don't understand statistics. I am far from a statistics expert, myself, but I do know that the margin of error refers to a 95% (if I remember the percentage correctly) certainty on the part of the pollster that public opinion is within a particular range. What that doesn't mean is that a 3-point margin with a 4-point margin of error is actually a dead heat, statistically or otherwise. It means that there is probably a small lead for one candidate, but some relatively small chance that there isn't.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
The Hill and others?
First off, take SUSA with a grain of salt. Their crosstabs are even worse than normal this year and they have a tough time gauging intensity. So, looking at just the Hill polls, those have actually shown more good overall than bad, with very few Democrats down outside the margin of era. So I don't get where you get off on dozens of Democrats trailing.

The Republican generic ballot lead is concentrated in an enormous regional lead in the south, combined with ties in the west, a narrow lead in the midwest, and a minor gap in New England. Many Democrats are vastly over-performing the likely generic ballot gap for their district, so conspiracy does have a good point.  

[ Parent ]
New England
only refers to six states: ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT.

I assume you meant the Northeast.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
That's improvement for Dems
from 53-43 a month ago, so R+10 to R+7.

Now, if we can cut that in half over the next two weeks, it's game on.

[ Parent ]
What is the history of
the generic ballot aligning with the individual races this late in the game?

Also, I know they try to control for this stuff, but isn't it possible that a lot of the anger towards Democrats and support for Republicans is contained in areas where it won't have as much of an effect? I don't expect it to make that much of a difference, if it makes any difference at all, but still, I wonder.

Anyway, someone said yesterday they expected an expansion of the Republican lead on the generic ballot followed by some it getting tight at the end. Let's hope that it does get tight at the end.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That was me... :)
It's certainly possible the national generic ballot could be tilting more heavily toward one party or the other due to extreme support or opposition in certain parts of the country.

Having said that, though, I think there's pretty clear evidence linking the national generic ballot to aggregate seat outcomes by party. We'd probably need to close our deficit to low single digits (3-4) to have a shot at being competitive for House control.

[ Parent ]
Im really starting to love
seeing AK-Sen at the top every day.  It really puts a giant smile on my face.  He must have broken the SSP record now for most consecutive days in the Digest.
I'm pulling for Mayor McAdams, but...
I mean, it's obvious the majority of Alaskans don't want to elect a Democrat. I hope he wins, because Miller is awful and Sen. Murkowski is only slightly less awful, but I think it's strong evidence for an IRV jungle system.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I'm entertained by the shitstorm
but again, we need to drive up Murkowski's unfavorables.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Early voting, absentee ballots, polling, and more music
With an increasing number of absentees and early voting, it's going to be harder and harder to poll races--unless people start putting together poll composites including poll estimates at various points in time before election day and turnout estimates for how many people voted each day or week of early voting.

That said, enjoy some more music!



party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

CT-Sen: New McMahon ad ties Blumenthal to Dodd
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

I actually think it's a pretty affective ad, but McMahon's probably down 12 at this point. Hard to see how she turns her sinking ship around.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Actually a pretty good ad, populist and chilling
But the local media will probably be going after her for various inaccuracies in there. It feels a lot like she puled those statements out of her ass without any evidence.
[ Parent ]
I hope so
Because otherwise, it's a very good ad. I've also heard her radio ad with Blumenthal's fumbling answer about how you create jobs, and I thought that was also a good ad.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I figured she was down by a lot
when she recently dredged up the stuff about Vietnam.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
She's trying to change the narrative...
Her husband screwed up by attacking Democrats for hitting McMahon on the WWE, and the McMahon campaign has been getting some negative attention for that.

The problem is, I don't think Connecticut voters really think Atty. Gen. Blumenthal is going to vote much differently than Sen. Dodd. I don't see this really causing people to sit up en masse and reconsider their vote.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
That Vince bit really pissed me off
Even as a long time fan of WWE. Don't bring the good things about it into the political arena to cover up the bad. I've brought it up a couple times and nobody wanted to bite surprisingly. The Connecticut Democratic Party has complained to the FEC and I hope they get a big fine.
[ Parent ]
She's fighting upstream here...
Blumenthal has a reputation in this state as a man of high integrity, fighting the special interests. That's not going to change over the next 13 days. If this was her line of attack, she would have needed to start a long time ago, because she essentially needs to persuade people not to believe their own preconceptions. That takes time.
[ Parent ]
Questions answered on strange Wilson Research Strategies Poll in CA
http://www.w-r-s.com/blog/file...
The cross tabs show Fiorina winning 20% of Dems, double what she is getting in most polls, which explains her 3 pt lead.
It's a perfect, spot-on voter model, though - 46D/34R/20I
The cross-tabs on Hispanics and African-Americans look believable, too. Where it loses me is they actually have Fiorina up among women, 44-43. She ain't winning the female vote, although I can buy Boxer winning women by 54-44 come election night (in which case you've got a barn burner overall).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Just out of curiosity,
how are you creating your party voter model? Based on previous mid-terms? Are you tweaking for expectations of higher Republican turnout?
[ Parent ]
CA-Gov: RGA poll has Brown, Whitman tied at 46
http://www.legalnewsline.com/n...

Confirms a Brown lead, though Whitman may well keep this tight with a stellar GOTV effort.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

RGA
internal. I'm thinking the RGA might get involved here somehow. The only thing I could think of the RGA might use against is Brown is attacking him for not suing the Federal Government over HCR because Whitman and the Chamber of Commerce have used every other single attack already.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Missouri Senate Sleeper Race?
I think Missouri Senate could be closer than it seems. PPP recently released a poll which showed Carnahan down by only 5 points. The cross-tabs of the poll are a bit counter-intuitive showing Blunt leading 46-38 among 18-29's, 43-38 among 30-45's, only 45-44 among 45-64's, and 51-38 among seniors. It seems like they got a good sample of 45-64's (44% of total sample) and seniors (26%).

But they are showing a smaller (6%) and much more conservative (8 points Republican) youth vote than anyone would expect. If you put the youth vote where one would expect, Carnahan would be down by only 2 or 3.

I've seen this problem with a lot of polls (especially Survey USA). Most young people don't have home phones, and those who do are probably more rural and well-off and therefore more conservative.

I want to email Nate Silver asking him to address this issue, and I  would encourage you guys to do the same. His models are based on historical performance, but if a poll shows unbelievable cross-tabs, I think that should be accounted for in the model.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

No, it certainly shouldn't be accounted for.
That would be terrible. The definition of 'unbelieveable' is highly subjective, and subjectiveness should NEVER enter modeling. Once it does, your results will be screwed up. Nate does a fairly good job of keeping his opinionating apart from his modeling, that's why he's good.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
The problem with polling this cycle
I think Nate's methodology was effective for the 2008 election where there the polls were pretty accurate because there was more equal enthusiasm on both sides.

But this cycle seems somewhat different. There is a substantial enthusiasm gap between R's and D's, and certainly polls should account for that. But Rasmussen's and Survey USA's automated polling seems to overcompensate this because the very small percentage who respond to an automated poll are probably extremely enthusiastic and more conservative. Enthusiasm counts to an extent, but at the end of the day weak vote and strong vote are equal.

The problem with weighing a poll based on historical poll rating is that polling quality can vary year to year and even good pollsters can get bad samples. Nate should punish samples whose cross-tabs stray extremely from any past exit polls.

In the meantime, I think looking at the middle-age and senior cross-tabs of a poll is more accurate than just the top-line results which are based on very questionable youth numbers.  

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say enthusiasm was equal in 2008
Democrats were very motivated. Republicans were pretty motivated. Independants were excited to elect somebody new. All those dynamics are reverse this year.
[ Parent ]
You can't quantify that.
And you can't. You CAN'T include something that you can't quantify. Exit polls are exactly that: Polls. They're at least as likely to be wrong as pre-election polls, I'd for several reasons argue that they're more likely to be wrong.

You also can't quantify enthusiasm gaps, it's impossible, because you can't exactly derive how big it was even when you have the election results lying in front of you.

The only way to correct for it a bit is by using a House effect model that corrects extreme outliers. You're trading that off for making the assumption that the median pollster is correct and unbiased though, which is a problem.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Still, it seems a little... off.
According to exit polls from Missouri in 2008, Obama carried voters 18-24 by 61-37 and voters 25-29 by 58-41.

But one problem that may crop up is that the likely voter models that the pollsters are using are, basically, based on pre-2008 models that may or may not apply any more.  There's no actual hard evidence that many young voters who came out in larger-than-expected numbers to put Obama in the White House are going to sit this one out, other than pure speculation.  But the likely voter screens are screening out a whole lot of these voters based on their turnout numbers prior to 2008, which may or may not be accurate.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Exactly!
Not only do the pollsters miss a lot of young voters by only calling home-phones, some of them set higher standards for what constitutes a "likely" young voter. I know some pollsters require either 1) you voted in 2 of the last 4 elections, or 2) you voted in this year's primaries. Because the Republican primaries tended to be more competitive this year, conservative young people are more likely to meet this criteria while most liberal youth would be excluded.

Do some pollsters re-weight their age ranges? For example if they got a conservative sample of young people who made up 6% of the electorate, when young people usually make up 12, would they double the weight of their distorted age sample? This method, if practiced, could really distort the results.  

[ Parent ]
Hard Drive Failure On Home Computer......
Scary wake up call.  I'm obviously gonna take it in and get it fixed immediately, but it's scary to even contemplate this thing having gone out on Tuesday, November 2, rather than Tuesday, October 20.  Facing an election night with no computer to track the returns as they roll in would be a face worse than death.  Just a warning not to get caught flat-footed, Phil Hare-style!
Should I watch the election results?
Or should I sleep early and ignore them until the next day?

Because we seem to have better luck when I don't watch the results rolling in...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
You're A Better Man Than I.....
....if you're able to ignore election returns as they roll in on election night.  For better or for worse, I gotta be there.  I already took Wednesday off work because I know I'll be up until 7 a.m. when the vast majority of returns that are gonna roll in already have.

I used to work at a newspaper where I'd be up all night following election returns and then had to be up bright early to fill in digits on their graph boilerplate for election returns in every precinct in the county before the 10 a.m. deadline.  Now that was exhausting, particularly after the "crash" that came the morning after the 2002 and 2004 elections as was the case then.

[ Parent ]
that's no fun
You have to start at 4 in the afternoon (Pacific time) refreshing the first few counties in Indiana and Kentucky every 30 seconds, and end at 2 or 3 in the morning refreshing the last few west coast nail-biters every few seconds.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Exactly What I've Done The Last Three Election Years.....
.....reloading to see the first numbers roll in from Floyd County, Kentucky.  That was a particularly intriguing place to watch in 2008 to see just how badly Obama would do in the heart of Appalachia.  The verdict....pretty much as bad as predicted.
[ Parent ]
Good luck sorting it
I've decided for the first time to forgo tv completely and follow events exclusively online with both my laptop and PC, Al Gore style! For two reasons - firstly I can't do without my SSP fix and secondly I don't have the stomach for the useless talking heads and Republican gloating.  
[ Parent ]
I'll Be 90% Online Tracking And The Talking Heads The Background 10%.....
...just so I can hear the official calls since I'm often tracking so many races at a time online that I miss the calls online.  I kind of miss the more quaint election nights like back in 2000 when I was merely glued to the TV, but when I rewatch the miserably bad videotaped election coverage of CBS News from back in 2000, I'm reminded how glad I am that I'm no longer subservient to their ridiculously mindless analysis.
[ Parent ]
My favorite part
of watching cable news is the types of guests--usually the bottom of the barrel mixed in with some genuinely good ones--and the sheer number of them. It is highly entertaining that CNN had a massive table but still had to add stools to let everyone have a seat. What is the point in having 10-15 people trying to talk at once?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I am almost half-crazed now...
I know that it will be impossible for me to watch on Nov. 2.  If my husband wants to watch, God Bless him!  I am going to a 7:40 pm Zumba class.  Come home, make myself  a still Maker's Mark and go to bed.  I will not be reading news online or watching TV after that time.  

My husband and I are flying to Montego Bay on Nov. 4 where I will even avoid the CNN feeds in the US Airways lounge at Miami airport.

I feel like I am going through the stages of grief...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
"stiff" Maker's Mark..how I typed "still" I don't know...


41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
You could always
Watch them on TV.  
[ Parent ]
Kos doing a poll on where to poll next.
Vote here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Totally understand NH winning
Considering the House races. Shame though because the others, barring AZ-Gov, are all worthy too.
[ Parent ]
Not that this is likely to happen, but
imagine if the Democrats lost in PA, CO and the other contested races but pulled out a victory in NC or MO. That one would leave people scratching their heads for weeks.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
CNN/Time Poll - Boozman, Rubio up, Murkowski, Miller tied
Boozman 55/Lincoln 41
Miller 37/Murkowski 37/McAdams 23
Rubio 46/Crist 32/Meek 20

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

CNN did their poll wrong
Explicitly named Murkowski as a choice.  May explain the poor numbers for McAdams to some extent.
[ Parent ]
All that means is Miller is up a bunch...
Which doesn't jive with reports that his support is tanking and the NRSC spending money there because they're worried about McAdams.  If Scott was so far back in third, I don't think the NRSC would bother getting involved because they'd win with Lisa or Joe.  
[ Parent ]
could be that Lisa is taking most of her votes from MacAdams
In that case MacAdams could be leading without Lisa actually on the ballot
[ Parent ]
Miller is at the same number in all surveys, the 34-37 range
He's so unpopular that only 35% will vote for him, it's just a question of whether Murkowski or McAdams get the rest of the votes.

I think NRSC wouldn't spend money here if they thought Scott McAdams had no shot.

[ Parent ]
Scott 49-46
What a topsy-turvy race that one is.
[ Parent ]
And Beebe 62 to 35

[ Parent ]
what race is that?

[ Parent ]
FL-Gov

[ Parent ]
Blanche breaks through the 40 barrier! ;-) n/t

[ Parent ]
I
see her losing 57-43. I wonder how Halter would be doing now. Probably not much better.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Weird
Why haven't they mentioned their Ohio numbers?  They show a statistical tie with Kasich actually down by 1.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Man
Polling has never ever been this crazy! Nobody seems to agree and there isn't even much internal consistency per pollster.
[ Parent ]
Really?
I want to see more polling before I buy that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I don't
I don't but it at all.  They show Kasich winning 51-42, but still a point behind Strickland? I mean, if I were Strickland, I'd be happy that for the first time since June, I was leading in a public poll, but it looks like an outlier to me, though I've no doubt that the race is close.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
What do you mean
Kasich winning 51-42 while also being a point behind Strickland? Did you mean Kasich winning a certain subgroup?
[ Parent ]
Indies

[ Parent ]
You should buy it because it's exactly in line with BOTH sides' private polling......
Marc Ambinder tweeted yesterday that GOP internals say Kasich+2, Dem internals say Strickland+2.

This CNN/Time poll is in that range.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
48-47 Strickland
http://www.time.com/time/polit...

A day after Q says Kasich by 10.  Someone's going to have some explaining to do.

[ Parent ]
Nevada early voting day 4 numbers
Look like an improvement for Democrats.  The margin in Clark County of Dem votes over Rep votes is D+5,092, and in NV-03 it is now D+1,030.  Ralston has mentioned that as a percentage of registered voters, Republicans are outperforming Democrats, but the raw numbers here show a D lead regardless, assuming trends hold and they don't get clobbered on election day.
Angle is driving up Democratic turnout
There's no other way to explain it. Polls have been saying, again and again, enthusiasm gap, and yet so far, in early voting, there's a smaller enthusiasm gap in Nevada than in previous midterms.

Has Sen. Reid started busing voters to the polls yet?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
He started doing that on Monday.
Let's hope that Biden's appearance in LV today drives some additional early voting for the Dems. Palin's appearance didn't provide a jump for GOP voters though, so who knows.

Obama will be in Reno on Friday. Hopefully, that brings out additional voters in Washoe County to tighten that gap.

[ Parent ]
Obama will be going to Vegas
Biden's in Reno, no?

President Barack Obama has decided on a location for his Las Vegas rally with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: Orr Middle School Park.

The rally will be the sixth "Moving America Forward" event featuring the president, who is crisscrossing the country to boost support for Democratic candidates.

Recent rallies in Madison, Wis., and Philadelphia attracted upwards of 20,000 people.

It is free and open to the public. Doors for the Oct. 22 event open at 3:30 p.m.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

[ Parent ]
Yep, you are right. I flipped the cities around.

[ Parent ]
The polls say enthusiasm gap
But really, the likely voter screens are set up to show an enthusiasm gap favoring the Republicans.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
No, but the unions are...
A couple GOP campaigns have whined about it, but apparently it's perfectly legal for AFL-CIO and Culinary 226 to provide transportation for workers going to vote.


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Matching Contribution?
Would anyone here like to semi-match a contribution? I have proposed the following six races as swing districts in which we can either put the Republicans on defense, pick up a seat, or defend a seat currently held by a Democrat:

Kuster (NH-02)
Garcia (FL-25)
DelBene (WA-08)
Hanabusa (HA-01)
Shea-Porter (NH-01)
Perriello (VA-05)

If someone would agree to semi-match my contributions, I would contribute $15 each to the first three candidates on the list and you would contribute $15 each to the last three candidates. Otherwise, I will need to make smaller contributions or cut down my list.  

I'd drop Hanabusa
Hanabusa's gonna win it in a walk. She always overperforms polls because they never accurately capture the Asian-American vote, especially among As-Am women. But sorry, I already did all my donations for the cycle. The others are all quite worthy, though.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
PA-Gov: Corbett only up 2. Really?
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

If Corbett and Onorato are virtually tied, Sestak should be up double-digits. That is, unless the Democrats are "coming home."

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Urgh
That calls into question the senate numbers IMO. Then again Muhlenberg is consistent so who knows.
[ Parent ]
Well
they had him leading by nine. A guess a seven point difference isn't that much.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
7

[ Parent ]
What?
Color me skeptical. I just can't buy that until I see more data.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
crosstabs are weird
onorato is winning moderates handily, but losing indies and is losing more dems than corbett is reps.  if these are real, the only possibilities i see are this onorato's high water mark or if dems unify they own PA politics.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
MO-Sen: Blunt up 9
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Meaning that poll with Blunt only up 5 is probably spot-on. Still, can Dems really invest in this one when so many other, closer races are on the radar?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Leave it to Rasmussen
to stake out an island on WV-Sen and FL-GOV were all other pollsters have shown Manchin and Sink pulling ahead.  
CNN have Scott up three

[ Parent ]
The DGA or DNC
need to smash Scott in the mouth with a 10 mil ad buy if they need to. This is one of the most important races in the nation for Democrats to salvage. The fact that Sink is sweeping the newspaper endorsements should help, and she hopefully still has some gas in her tank to run some positive ads that also hit Scott.  
[ Parent ]
WI-Sen: The Green Bay Press Gazette endorses Russ for the first time ever.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I've really been
feeling that for some reason the Green Bay area has been trending more Democratic for a while. First Mark Green loses his old congressional district during his gubernatorial run, then a fairly liberal Democrat wins twice, (becoming the first Democrat since the I believe 1930s to win reelection there), and then Obama also carries it. The Newspapers might be starting to reflect this shift in the area's politics.

I'm starting to get the sense that Russ is closing this race hard, with some rough, brutal ads on Johnson too, for the first time, and plenty of cash left to run more.  

[ Parent ]
I think he is as well
Its based on a combination of factors. Johnson has made some mistakes the past couple of weeks and has just seemed like such an amateur when he's on the stage or in direct comparison to Feingold. Another being that his most recent ad is pretty mediocre. This is an attack ad and its just not very good. Which is in contrast to his 2 very good bio ads.

I think the main reason and it piggybacks off my first factor and that's Ron Johnson's recent gaffes are the worst kind of gaffes, those that reinforce negative perceptions about you. Let's be honest, Ron Johnson is not a particularly strong candidate. He's really no stronger than Tim Michels and is worse than Mark Neumann circa 1998. If this election was 2 years ago Feingold wins by 20. If he wins he does it because of the environment and the enthusiasm gap. Now as people start to pay closer attention they may be starting to realize that Johnson is comically unprepared to be a US Senator especially in comparison to Feingold.

[ Parent ]
DCCC files complaint that McCain violated campaign finance laws
with his commercials for McClung and Kelly.
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Saw that one coming
As soon as I read about that, I did a double-take: "Is that even legal?"

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Interesting
Yet if McCain is spending more than $4,800 on each ad - the legal limit for a political contribution - it's likely he's breaking the campaign finance law, Democrats say in the complaint.

"John McCain chose to air television commercials that violate the campaign finance legislation that bears his name," said DCCC spokeswoman Jennifer Crider. "Sen. McCain either doesn't understand the law bearing his name or he has deliberately chosen to break it."

If McCain didn't coordinate with the McClung and Kelly campaigns, the ads would qualify as independent expenditures- and McCain could potentially spend as much of the $550,000 in his campaign account as he wants to.
McCain's campaign says there was no coordination. It filed forms designating the ads as independent expenditures to the secretary of the Senate on Oct. 18, according to documents the McCain campaign provided to POLITICO.

How could McCain collaborate with House candidates on ads without coordinating with them? I don't understand his argument. Can anyone who really understands the McCain-Feingold Law explain what McCain's argument is?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
The ads
The ads only have him and Kyl in them.  I'm sure, given that they were trying something new, they were extra careful not to talk to the house candidates about it.  I'd be willing to bet they learned about it when the ads were launched and not before.  As the author of the law, you can be sure that McCain knew better than to violate it.  Now that he's let the cat out of the bag, I wonder if anyone else will try it.  Shelby is safe, he could and so could the NY candidates.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Thanks for correcting my misunderstanding
I should have asked a question or looked at the ads myself.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Interesting
so now there's a chance I'll see an ad with Whitman and Fiorina shilling for Lungren, Tran, Harmer and the dudes running against Cardoza and Costa?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Reading about the GOP candidate in MA-10
Absolutely revolting and then he has the audacity to have his boss say what a super cop he has been.  Ethically challenged cops whose jobs to enforce the law, not abuse, should not be rewarded the powers of democracy.

NY-29
DSCC buys today:
in order of size: PA-SEN, CO-SEN, NV-SEN, IL-SEN, WV-SEN, WA-SEN, KY-SEN, CT-SEN

all were pretty large, with PA being over a million and CT being $490K

Looks about right
Heartening to see they don't feel the need to spend in California. Not sure why they still want to hold Atty. Gen. Blumenthal's hand, though.

Still no spending in Alaska. I wonder if the NRSC is seeing that race much tighter than the DSCC is.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Not sure how much good the DSCC spending in Alaska would do
I've heard of the resentment at outsiders getting involved, and from what I can tell, McAdams seems to enjoy his distance from Washington.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Dems are more than fine with Murkowski...
And feel she's got it locked up as Miller is locked in at 35%, and enough Dems will vote strategically for Murkowski.  

I have a feeling that McAdams might even tell his voters to do as much if he's polling a distant third in a weeks time.    

[ Parent ]
Why a candidate say, "Vote for the other guy?"
Unless you're Dede Scozzafava, of course!
[ Parent ]
Because Joe Miller is a militia nutter...
And McAdams knows he wasn't going to win straight up against Murkowski, and that's what he expected when he got in the race.  

McAdams was going to have trouble breaking 40% straight up against Murkowski.  If he's polling in the low 20's with Miller and Murkowski at 35%, he'll need to do the right thing and bow out.  If Lisa was polling in the distant third, I'd expect the same from her.

Best case scenario would be Miller in a distant third, but he seems pretty locked in at 35%.  And with Murkowski running a write-in campaign, she's going to need to beat Miller convincingly because he'll challenge every one of her ballots that are not spelled perfectly.

She's going to lose 5% at least from folks not filling in the oval.  

[ Parent ]
Miller's core support is pretty solid.
He's cornered the market on his fellow staunch conservatives, and even if his campaign completely falls apart I can't see him doing worse than 20-25%.

McAdams needs to at least beat 30%.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
That's why I'm saying right now,
WE need to generate negative buzz around Liza Murky.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
That's silly, and no such thing will happen, nor should it.......
McAdams ran expecting to run against Murkowski alone, it makes no sense for him to drop out now so she can win.

It makes no difference to McAdams and his voters whether Lisa or Miller wins, they're both Republicans, and McAdams and his voters don't want to vote Republican.

So what if Miller is a militia nutter?  He's going to vote the same as Murkowski, and he's not going to be able to do any of the crazy things he wants to do.  And further he will embarrass his party to our benefit.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Murkowski is much better on womans issues...
than Miller ever will be.  Miller is against bringing any pork to Alaska, McAdams is all about pork or as he calls it "their fair share".

He was expecting to run and lose against Murkowski - he doesn't like her politics and thought he could do better.  But it's not what he thinks about how she compared to him, but Miller and Miller is to the far extreme.  

From one to ten with one being far liberal and 10 being far fight nut, McAdams is a three, Murkowski is a seven and Miller is an eleven.

[ Parent ]
Murkowski is hardly better on women's issues when her vote matters......
She voted "no" on Lilly Ledbetter in the 110th Congress.

She voted "yes" this Congress only because her vote was surplusage and all the women of both parties voted for it.

Some say she's pro-choice but she's got a poor 14% rating by NARAL on abortion, and a much better 50% by National Right to Life.  Harry Reid is universally CALLED PRO-LIFE and has a 29% NARAL rating, better than Murkowski, and the same 50% rating by NRTL.

Murkowski votes with her party on everything whenever her vote matters.  She's NEVER one of the dealmakers who crosses the aisle to negotiate as far as I can recall.

McAdams has no reason to drop out for her.  I just scratch my head that people want to treat Murkowski as a de facto Democrat.  She's nothing remotely close to that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I wish I were as eloquent as you!
You totally summed up what I was thinking!

What are your thoughts on this race--and what the polling will show over the next two weeks?

What does McAdams do to get over the 30% mark--go negative on Murkowski?

[ Parent ]
eventually miller will go negative on murk-querque
there's little reason to attack mcadams, b/c it would just drive voters to querque.  Plus there's the tea party(TM), they don't seem like the kind of people who would sit back and just let miller lose.  if miller attacks her there's the chance that more people go to him than mcadams.  mcadams should probably attack querque and miller on a 2:1 clip to avoid all of the anti miller votes going to her.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Like this?

[ Parent ]
I want to hire his ad team
I don't even know what for. I'd just hate to see them out of work.

Everyone thought Mayor McAdams would be a sacrificial lamb. He's actually pretty brilliant as a campaigner.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Your sig
Top ten signs you're an SSPer #10: You've spent a considerable amount of time wondering what electoral system the wizards in Harry Potter used.

We are going to work on figuring this out, after November 2nd.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
Well, for me
It's, "You hear any district name and you can immediately give its representative, challenger, geographic location, PVI, and vulnerability."

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I still can't do that well yet
Still a ton of districts for whom I don't know the reps.  Mostly uncompetitive districts.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I can't do any of  Texas or Southern California. I know New York now, but that's only because I've spent a lot of time working on a redistricting map for it. But I have most of the smaller states down pat.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
This race is an unpredictable wildcard. Any of 3 things could happen......
My hope is that the write-in proves too heavy a lift for too many Dem and Dem-leaners, and they rally late behind the likeable McAdams to get him into the 30s.  That's a plausible scenario.  But if Miller or his allies or Murkowski air attack ads against McAdams, that could be the end of his chances of climbing.  So far it looks like everyone is leaving our man alone.  I hope it stays that way.

The second scenario is that the race is a true tossup between the two Rs.  Could go either way.

The third scenario is that Murkowski falls back but McAdams can't catch up, and Miller ends up winning something like 40-30-30.

I'm honestly not sure any of these scenarios is more likely than the other 2, although I'm sure pundits will say the McAdams plurality is less likely.  But at least some of them, like Chuck Todd, have acknowledged a plausible path to victory for McAdams.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I see...
His numbers spike the week or weekend before Election Day.

Makes sense--he'd have to pick up 15% of her support to beat Miller, whose folks aren't budging from their candidate I think.

[ Parent ]
Yup, it would have to be an 11th-hour spike. I don't think polling will show it. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
cnn say only 80% will switch
if writing in is too hard.  i doubt it tho.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I think Murkowski's risk isn't what happens in the voting booth, it's the weekend before......
The thing about her write-in bid, a voter has to decide s/he CARES enough about electing Murkowski to go to the trouble.  A large minority will, and will write in her name.

But Murkowski will find in the last 72 hours some percentage, impossible to quantify in advance, some people just decide they're not going to vote for her.  That she's a lone wolf now is a real problem.  Most voters vote habitually for a single party, and their political community messaging pushes them in that direction; most voters vote tribally.  Swing voters are all over the map, a mix of conservatives and moderates and liberals and not wedded to Lisa or anyone else as a group.

So psychologically some voters who SAY in telephone surveys they'll vote for Lisa, end up deciding she's not worth the trouble, they just don't care about her that much.  Lisa Murkowski doesn't have a fan club, she's not some charismatic figure to whom large numbers of people are drawn.  So she loses some support from people simply not caring about her.

But trying to predict how much or where they go is impossible.

All I know is that there's a plausible chance that Lisa's Dems and Dem-leaners will decide the last weekend to vote for McAdams.  But it won't happen till very late if it happens.  And McAdams needs to stay within single-digits for it to happen.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
a point McAdams
can try to sell to Dems leaning towards Lisa: 1)no one has ever won a write-in in AK, 2) therefore writing in Lisa is likely to be a wasted vote, 3) which in effect is voting for crazy Joe. Just repeat over and over. And it should be done in a totally respectful way towards her.

And I don't think McAdams needs to go negative on her. IEs like the Tea Party, CfG, Rove's Crossroads, etc hopefully will do the dirty work of going negative on her soon.

[ Parent ]
He already has
in a mild but pointed way. See the ad posted above - yet another good, wholesome, authentic-sounding ad from McAdams' brilliant ad agency.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Thing is, look at it this way.
Miller's only plausible path to victory is if Murky and McAdams split the moderates and liberals and Miller captures a good fraction of the conservatives.  He's not winning over any liberals with his actions, and he's quickly driving moderates away.  His best chance is to take whatever conservatives Murky has left.

Consequently, his biggest threat, and his supporters' biggest threat, is not McAdams but Murky.  In fact, if McAdams can poach enough moderates off Murky to make her seem unelectable, Miller could then tell the conservatives to flock to him, and have a better case.

So Miller has every reason to attack Murky while leaving McAdams alone.

(Please do try to poke holes in my above reasoning.  I want to know if I've missed something.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
What Mayor McAdams wants to do...
His path to victory is consolidating liberals and moderates while exploiting voter apathy over the unpopular Miller and the uncharismatic Sen. Murkowksi. He wants to paint them as two halves of the same side of the coin, then flip the coin and hope his side comes up at the polls.

Mayor McAdams is hitting Murkowski now with a radio ad. I'm guessing his campaign is going to test what happens in their internals if they go after the senator, banking on that free-fall we keep hearing Miller is in according to private polling (by the NRSC? McAdams? Murkowski?), hoping it produces a modest abandonment of Murkowski (or at least softens some of her "strong" support) without sending those voters to the Republican on the ballot. Remember, McAdams wants as few Republicans as possible to turn out, and he wants the Republicans that do vote to be split pretty evenly between Miller and Murkowski. He wants to look like a real contender, although not the frontrunner - and he wants Miller and Murkowski to look both interchangeable and unappealing.

If that's what McAdams wants, then we can deduce Miller wants almost the exact opposite. If he can gin up Republican turnout, McAdams is irrelevant, and all he has to do is top Murkowski among Republicans. But he has to pull this off without rendering McAdams "nonviable" in the eyes of the voting public (which might prompt soft McAdams supporters to write in Murkowski tactically to keep Miller out).

So McAdams running in second or preferably a close third is a common interest for both Miller and McAdams, while Murkowski would probably prefer McAdams run as far back as possible, because she could use some tactical abandonment of McAdams to bolster her numbers in a tight race with Miller. Murkowski wants to have a lot of hard support among her base, but she doesn't want to run so far ahead that she's seen as a "sure thing", or else voters just won't bother to show up and go to the trouble of filling in the bubble and writing in her name.

Therefore, Miller is the only candidate who wants polls to show him with a commanding lead. Murkowski is the only candidate who wants McAdams to be polling in a distant third. McAdams is the only candidate who wants low voter turnout.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
The hole in your reasoning is...
...there's probably no way for Miller to attack Murkowski in a way that costs her JUST her GOPers and GOP-leaners and true indies.  She's going to bleed people to McAdams, too, and might bleed more to him than to Joe.  That's Miller's risk if he attacks JUST Murkowski.

What can Miller really say?  I don't think it works to say she's not a true conservative or she has betrayed the GOP or conservatives.  She's a garden variety conservative dissents very rarely from her party.  And the center-right voters who currently support her already in their minds have decided Miller is unacceptable.  But Murkowski's center-left voters are softer, they've never supported her before and in fact ALL voted against her (and for Knowles) the last time they saw her name on a ballot.

I don't think there's any way for Miller to take votes from Murkowski.  Whatever center-right voters reject him now are unavailable to him.

I think Miller and Murkowski both need to attack McAdams.  Leaving him alone is what gives him a path to victory.  But from what I can tell they and the NRSC are calculating very differently, that McAdams is no threat under any circumstances.  They could very well prove right, but they're exposing themselves badly if they're wrong.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Thank you!
"I just scratch my head that people want to treat Murkowski as a de facto Democrat.  She's nothing remotely close to that." <----THIS

Charlie Crist would be one thing, Lisa Murkowski is whole different ballgame. And Scott McAdams is no Kendrick Meek, he has much, much more electoral potential--he's a guy who could get 50% of indies (he won't in this election, probably, but he easily could in a re-election campaign). Alaskans just don't know who he is yet, but money (of which he's got plenty and is using effectively with good commercials) and time are changing that rapidly. Plus, polling in Alaska is almost as bad as polling in Hawai'i so who knows how people might actually vote...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Do you mean Alaska Dems or national Dems?
Dems are more than fine with Murkowski

She voted to filibuster almost every piece of Democratic legislation except for the Ledbetter Law, right? So I can see no good reason why the national Democratic Party wouldn't fight hard against her. I could see a reason why they'd prefer to keep it quiet, though, by sending money to McAdams instead of buying their own ads on Alaska media.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Boxer has a significant CoH advantage
Even with the $2m+ investment from the NRSC. They may also think if Fiorina were to win all those other races would go Republican anyway.
[ Parent ]
Fiorina
Has a big checkbook. She was willing to spend in the primary at the last minute when polls showed her surging, she will probably do the same here.  
[ Parent ]
Not Really
She doesn't really have a lot of money. Not Whitman level anyway. I also thought she said wasn't spending anything after the primary.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
But she said she wouldn't do that post-primary.
If she did, wouldn't that make her a gasp liar?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Dracula can tell us some secrets about Republicans!
What is truth-telling?

* throws goblet *

A miserable little pile of political naivete!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
She also
Said she wouldn't do it in the primary. Think about it. Your polls show you in a 45-45 race. You spent $5.5 million to get the nomination and $0 of your own money in the general election. You have a huge cash disadvantage and the party is threatening to cut you off unless you invest your own money. Do you spend a total of $5.5 million (on the primary) and nothing on the general to lose, or do you spend $5.5 million on the primary and $6 million on the general (6 mil would tie her with Boxer's CoH advantage) and win?  
[ Parent ]
Ah but see
Your fatal assumption is that Carly FAILorina can possibly win.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely right
You have nothing to worry about. Its not like Boxer and Fiorina are tied in the polls or anything. Go on vacation for the next two weeks, and take all of your Dem friends with you. Trust me, CA is totally safe for Dems.  
[ Parent ]
I think "Fail-orina" is harsh
Honestly, who could have expected her to hang right in there with Boxer all the way until the end? And outperform the touted Meg Whitman, which she'll probably do?

Should Boxer go on to win this race (which I think will be the case), it will be because she went out and won it by consolidating her base, which alone is enough to win in California. Fiorina has consolidated her own base and leads with independents, which is all you can ask of a Republican in today's CA. Sure, Tom Campbell may have looked better in the early polls, but he was broke and would have fallen off the map by October. But Fiorina's still hanging around, and that's no fail.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I don't think that name-calling is a good idea.
Granted, if I can refrain from calling tea partiers "teabaggers", then I would like to see the other side refrain from using terms like "Obamacare"...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I don't have a problem with "Obamacare."
Nothing necessarily negative about that; ear of the beholder.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Loaded Words
It's not that I'm offended so much as it is that I know exactly what the person's point of view is the second I hear them say "Obamacare." It's a loaded term that suggests that the person has an ideological axe to grind. I'd honestly prefer to know that than not know it, but I'm probably going to take anything the speaker says wearing an analytical hat with a grain of salt.  

Another one that's a lot more subtle is "Democrat Party." It doesn't offend me but it's sort of the opposite of a dog whistle. Conservatives/Republicans say it without (AFAIK) thinking about it much but I know right away what their point of view is and that's not necessarily a good thing in certain fora.

I try not to use such terms when making posts that purport objective analysis, though I can't say that I'm that way all the time, even on SSP.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
ObamaCare
Is just a nick name, that is much easier to type than Obama's Health Care Reform Plan or Health Care Reform.
[ Parent ]
I
just put HCR.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Campbell probably would have attracted outside support...
He'd also be performing better among Democrats and unaffiliated voters. Provided he didn't scoot too far to the right (and why?), I probably would have preferred him over Sen. Boxer in the general election, and I'm a fairly left-wing independent.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Fail-orina
has nothing to do with how she has ran her campaign. It has to do with how she ran HP. She failed at it, hence Fail-orina. Not saying whether it is right or wrong but that is worth noting.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I give her about a 15% chance of winning
Yes, it's possible.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Disappointed that they didn't spent any money
in NH.  
[ Parent ]
Sadly
this isn't 2008 where the DSCC could throw money at races in Maine, Georgia, and Mississippi in an attempt to score wins there.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania Absentee Ballots
   Is it really fair to say absentee balloting in Pennsylvania says anything (or maybe only a little) about excitement?  You have to have a valid excuse to fill out an absentee ballot in Pennsylvania.  You have to be out of the jurisdiction on election day or be physically incapacitated.  This is not like Nevada.  Anyway, I am one of the Democrats who has already returned his absentee ballot (voted on September 30!).

24, Male, GA-05
only 5% voted absentee in PA in 2008
Not sure what the party breakdown was though.  It's not as critical is NV, NC, IA, OH, etc.
[ Parent ]
if i recall correctly,
PA doesn't have early voting.  as such, i imagine their absentee requirements may be stricter as well.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I do know that
PA is the state which requires you to send in absentee ballots the earliest.
[ Parent ]
Ugh, it is really early.
   The absentee ballots have to be in the office the Friday before election day.  I don't know why that rule hasn't been challenged.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
What's the usual breakdown of absentees in Pennsylvania?
If it's restricted to people who will be outside the jurisdiction all day election day, then this would restrict the pool of absentee voters to military people, students, and others.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Yes
Some of the most stringent rules in the country.
[ Parent ]
Perspective
If we're only down 4 from 2006 and 8 from 2004, I'm doing effing cartwheels. Real question is how badly we lose indies, which would be in addition to those numbers. Still, Obama won by a lot in 08, and the 06 statewide Dems did great too. We have some room to lose votes before we lose the election.
[ Parent ]
one last PPP appeal
please vote for VT in PPP's poll of who to poll next.  there have been 2 post primary polls on the governor's race and little is known right now.  If you've already voted for say, maine, or New Hampshire, consider changing the vote as they are so far ahead they will almost certainly win.  thank you for your time and thanks to everyone who voted for Vermont.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
I changed mine
to VT yesterday.  
[ Parent ]
Runyan
I mean, it could be worse.  He could have said that a Supreme Court decision from the last 10 or 15 years that he disagreed with was Brown v. Board of Education.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
It reminded me of Bush debating Kerry
Classic dog whistle. But even he knew how long ago it was.
[ Parent ]
Iowa House
I don't know if you can call it one of the likeliest chambers to flip in the country. I would say it's a tossup--Republicans need a net gain of seven seats, but Democrats have three solid pickup opportunities, so Republicans probably need 8-10 pickups to get a majority in the chamber. They could do it, but I wouldn't call it more than a 50/50 proposition.
Dem party head in CT
wants FEC investigation of McMahon/WWE campaign coordination:

State Democratic Chairwoman Nancy DiNardo is calling on the Federal Election Commission to investigate whether World Wrestling Entertainment's new PR campaign constitutes illegal coordination between the company and the U.S. Senate campaign of its former CEO, Linda McMahon.

http://blogs.courant.com/capit...

The full letter appears at MLN:

There are at least three major examples of possible improper coordination between Mrs. McMahon and WWE. These include WWE's new political campaign and 'rapid-response' news operation on behalf of Linda McMahon's Senate campaign, WWE's scheduling of the first-ever "Fan Appreciation Day" the Saturday before Election Day in Hartford, and WWE's potential interference with voting on election night in Bridgeport.

http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/di...

Very hard to prove
But pretty obvious what they are doing. Yeah it stinks but it probably won't matter.
[ Parent ]
Looks terrible though
And I think McMahon will suffer some blowback. Voters aren't stupid, especially when the media is telling them what's going on.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
New Polls!
EPIC-MRA Polls: Rep. Schauer (D) +6 in MI-7, Rep. Peters (D) +5 in MI-9. GOP Polls: Rep. Hinchey (D) tied in NY-22, anyway you interpret this, Hinchey is some serious trouble, MO-4: Rep. Skelton (D) tied with Hartzler (R), but poll wasn't done for Hartzler's campaign though. Cook moved MO-4 to Toss Up today, NY-22 to Lean D.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Do you have specific numbers?
and MoEs?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
EPIC-MRA polls
MI-07: Schauer 45, Walberg 39
MI-09: Peters 48, Raczkowski 43

both have MoE +/-5.  400 LV.  Poll dates 10/16-10/17.

great news, does anyone have any thoughts on how the MI-01 contest might be doing if MI-07 is moving D.

[ Parent ]
NY-22 (Magellan)
Hinchey 43.2, Phillips 43.2.  MoE +/-2.89.  Poll date 10/19.
[ Parent ]
Magellan...
They're a crap pollster. Always show an extreme Republican house effect (worth 4-6 points, I'd say).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
MO-04 (Axiom)
Skelton 42, Hartzler 42.  Poll dates 10/17-10/18, 300 LV.

"Democrats, meantime, say they have a poll showing Skelton at 50 percent with a high, single-digit lead. We've asked to see the survey."

http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/en...

I didn't know that NRCC cancelled ad buys in KC that might affect this race.

[ Parent ]
300 people?
Sheesh. Massive MoE.
[ Parent ]
More Polls
Mason-Dixon has Paul up 48-43, same like Ras. WPRI will have the first public poll of MA-4 tomorrow.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
MI-7
The Hill poll had Schauer and Walberg tied.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
So?
Who says those are right and these are wrong? And please post links.
[ Parent ]
Which Paul are you talking about?
There are tons going around.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Rand Paul in Kentucky
Confirmation that race remains tight, but Paul appears to have the edge.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I asume Rand?
If Ron Paul is only up 5 in TX-14.......now that would be one heck of an upset.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
No chance Ron is down
I have literally seen maybe two short articles on the Democrat since he won the nomination in TX-14. He's solid

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04
[ Parent ]
Surprisingly good results in Michigan...
I sense Rep. Hinchey is at a low-water mark following his recent outburst; I think he'll rebound enough to take a narrow victory on Election Day, especially with Paladino dragging on Republican turnout and sitting like a gargoyle on top of the ballot.

Really nice to see Reps. Peters and Schauer (especially the latter) leading by mid-single digits.

Rep. Skelton badly needs Secy. Carnahan to finish within single digits, preferably mid-single digits.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Get Schumer, Gillibrand, and Cuomo to campaign.
Just a little bit of campaigning.

Strategically placed, y'know.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Ticket Splitting!
You guys need a few lessons in ticket splitting! If Snyder wins by 20 in MI as polls indicate, then he wins the 7th by 30 pts, so how can Schauer be ahead, same with Peters? Ticket Splitting! Same will happen in NY! Paladino will lose big but people will still vote for many GOPers.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
There is no need to be patronizing
Snyder isn't likely to win by as wide a margin as Cuomo and besides the two MI districts are quite evenly balanced while you cannot say the same for Hinchey's.
[ Parent ]
Here's the issue, though...
Snyder is a moderate. Being affiliated with Snyder (same party line on the ballot) is a lot less unattractive in a blue state like Michigan than being affiliated in the same way with a socially regressive slug like Carl Paladino. I expect proportionally more Democrats will vote for both Snyder and their Democratic House candidate than will split the ticket between, say, Paladino and Rep. Hall. And if Paladino is the first Republican name they see on the ballot, it makes Republicans down the ballot look less attractive.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Great point
Not forgetting of course it is actually a triple whammy in NY - Cuomo-Schumer-Gillibrand.
[ Parent ]
Links?
But I'll take your word for it. Sure Hinchey is in a race but can't see him losing with the races above his on the ticket. In the case of Skelton it may not be a campaign poll but the difference is like that between Republican and GOP.
[ Parent ]
Michigan polls
[ Parent ]
Thanks...
Now we've just got to keep MI-01 out of the hands of Benishek.
[ Parent ]
NY 22 was a Republican poll
Just dump it in the garbage.
[ Parent ]
The Dem brand is in shaky shape in NY-22, but Hinchey should be OK
The Democrats in this district (my district) tend to be ultra-progressive Green Party-types who don't think Obama has been nearly liberal enough. They're not fired-up about Cuomo, either. But...Hinchey is probably just progressive-enough to manage solid GOTV among the base here. You'll probably find a decent chunk of Dems voting Green in other races, but this race is squarely between he and Republican/Conservative nominee George Phillips, who's notable for nothing other than the Ed Koch endorsement. I see a 58-42 Hinchey win.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I went to college in
NY-22. Is the Super Wal-Mart along Vestal Parkway still the center of the area? And how is the downtown area doing? Not to get to far off topic, but if there's one area that could use a lot of investment, it's downtown Binghamton. I always thought it was bizarre that they didn't want University Plaza where that nasty Holiday Inn was right near the river and the State Street bars.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
NY-22 has several colleges
SUNY New Paltz, Binghamton University, Cornell all come to mind.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Nice to see I am being proved wrong on MI-07 and MI-09...
It's really time for Maurice Hinchey to retire, even though I am pretty sure he's not going to lose. It will make redistricting a lot easier.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Nooooo.
   Hinchey is an awesome progressive Democrat.  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Exactly
And this poll, whatever it is, is crap.  There's no way he's losing.
[ Parent ]
You can be a great progressive
and deserve to lose IMO.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
MI results are nice!
And it's better that they're independent pollsters. The party polls aren't as meaningful, could be off by substantial amounts.
[ Parent ]
Does anyone know if Kos is polling NH, AZ-07, or AZ-GOV?
I think AZ-GOV won, but NH came in second, and he said he would not poll anything besides NH if NH won.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
NH is still up
[ Parent ]
Former RNC CHAIR endorses Reid
Mostly because she'd be bad for gaming. Still, this could be big.

Former Republican National Committee Chairman Frank Fahrenkopf Jr. has endorsed Democratic Sen. Harry Reid, saying it would be a mistake for Nevadans to elect Republican Sharron Angle and lose Reid's clout to protect the state's lifeblood gambling industry.

Fahrenkopf, president of the American Gaming Association, suggested Angle should distance herself from the anti-gambling Campaign for Working Families, which has endorsed her and begun running television advertisements attacking Reid.

http://www.rgj.com/article/201...

As someone here predicted...
Sen. Reid is just rolling these prominent "Republicans for Reid" out at just the perfect intervals to remind voters, "Hey, Harry Reid has Republicans behind him because Sharron Angle is so extreme!"

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
It's a double whammy...
Not only is Fahrenkopf for Reid, but he also blew the whistle on Gary Bauer's PAC supporting Angle. Gary Bauer wants to BAN casino gaming. His desire is essentially to shut down Nevada's economy. Why would anyone support someone who's being used by forces working to shut down our state's economy?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I agree with everything you said,
except the part about Angle being used. I bet her agenda lines up quite nicely with Mr. Bauer's, and so the relationship is fairly symbiotic.
[ Parent ]
Reid gets another big GOP endorsement.
Former Republican National Committee Chairman Frank Fahrenkopf Jr.

Fahrenkopf, president of the American Gaming Association, suggested Angle should distance herself from the anti-gambling Campaign for Working Families, which has endorsed her and begun running television advertisements attacking Reid.

"It's disturbing that she (Angle) is taking money from people who oppose gambling," Fahrenkopf told The Associated Press. "She may not even know it, but Gary Bauer has been a longtime, outspoken opponent of legalized gambling. I did a double-take when I read she was re ceiving assistance from someone who has opposed Nevada's chief industry for so long."

http://www.rgj.com/article/201...

Beat ya ;-) n/t

[ Parent ]
Dang it!!! :)
It is be news though. I hope Reid runs an ad listing all the GOPers that endorsed him this cycle.  
[ Parent ]
Here's one...
And Reid didn't even have to pay for it. ;-)

It's an op-ed from Jim Rogers, the owner of Sunbelt Communications (which owns NRNV-Reno and KSNV-Vegas) and the former Chancellor of Nevada Higher Education.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Brown up 44-36 in PPIC poll
How about pushing the leaners, guys?

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/...

I'm not used to seeing the phrase
"Brown up" as good news. Flashbacks to January still haunt me.
[ Parent ]
Ha ha!
Me too!!! LOL!  I get a little shiver when I see something like that!
[ Parent ]
It takes a few seconds for the old brain
to process. ;-)

I hope they polled CA-Sen, too. Can't imagine why they wouldn't have...

[ Parent ]
Border districts
With border security being a big issue this cycle, I looked up all the districts that border either Canada or Mexico and was surprised by the results. There are 22 districts that share a land (not lake) border with Canada (12) or Mexico (10)--can anyone guess the partisan split? (No cheating!)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Off the top of my head
The only border districts represented by Republicans that spring to mind are MT-At Large and WA-05.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Good, almost there
There's one more Republican district--the overall split is 19-3.

Im not counting NY-28, MI-10, MI-13, or MI-14, even though the waters separating them from Canada are no wider than the Rio Grande. If you do include those, the split is 22-4.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
It's AK-AL.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Off the top of my head
Two Republicans come to mind:  Rehberg in Montana, and the eastern district in Washington state.  Beyond that, I can't think of any.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
Republican held: MT-AL, WA-05, NY-2? (Chris Lee's district) may, but it may border one of the Great Lakes or not even touch Canada. I'm sure some Texas Republicans border Mexico.
Now, I am going check, so I can't add more!  
[ Parent ]
The Texas-Mexico districts are all held by Hispanic Dems
I was surprised to see that, and shocked to see that Republicans hold zero districts along the Mexican border (they have a chance to pick up 4 this year.)

Also, one more Republican district to guess up on the Canadian border!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
My best guesses
Canada: AK-AL, WA-5, Wa-9, ID-1, ND-AL, MN-7, WI,-7, MI-1, NY-23, ME-1, ME-2, VT-AL.  If I'm right, 10-2 D.

Mexico: CA-51, AZ-7, AZ-8, NM-2, TX-16, TX-20, TX-21, TX-23, TX-27, TX-28.  If I'm right, 9-1 D

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Very close, good work
The full list:

Mexico: CA-53, CA-53, AZ-07, AZ-08, NM-02, TX-16, TX-23, TX-28, TX-15, TX-27. All Dems

Canada: AK-AL, WA-02, WA-05, ID-01, MT-AL, ND-AL, MN-07, MN-08, NY-23, VT-AL, NH-02, ME-02. The three GOP districts are AK-AL, MT-AL, and WA-05.

Seats in play this year are AZ-07, AZ-08, NM-02, TX-23, WA-02, ID-01, ND-AL, NY-23, NH-02. Republicans will get at least half of those on a good night.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Whoops, typed CA-53 twice
One of them should be CA-52

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Neither CA-52 or CA-53 are border districts
CA-51 has the entire Alta California-Baja California border. But it is really fascinating that the entire northern half od the US-Mexico border is represented by Democrats. I suspect the fact that every border district besides AZ-08 is plurality or majority Hispanic plays a big role in that.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
I mixed up CA-51 and CA-52
You're right, CA-52 does not border Mexico, but it does look like Susan Davis' CA-53 covers the westernmost end of the border--extending from the Pacific to about a mile or two inland.


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
You're right
Though the physical border is less than half a mile long. I guess the point is to keep all of Imperial Beach in one district.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Yay!
In full disclosure I saw WA-5 and MT-AL before I started though I think I'd have guessed them anyway.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
MI
You're missing MI-10, MI-12, and MI-13. I've crossed that border on foot in Windsor and by car in Port Huron.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Wait...
What?!  You crossed the Detroit River by foot?  Surely, you are the Christ, then.
[ Parent ]
Whoever watched the PA-SEN debate
How do you think Sestak did? I saw some excerpts where Sestak hammered on zero percent corporate taxes, did that work?
NV-Sen: SEIU getting into the ad wars too.
They're running a $225K ad buy with this ad:

Quite a creative format.

They're also giving $500K to Patriot Majority.

information c/o Jon Ralston

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Colorado early vote numbers
After about two days of early voting:

"The Colorado Secretary of State reports that about 195,000 voters have already cast ballots as of Wednesday afternoon. That figure includes mail-in and absentee voters who have already returned ballots, along with people who have voted in person at early balloting locations.

So far, just over 71,000 Democrats have voted, and about 81,500 Republicans have voted. About 41,000 unaffiliated voters have already cast ballots. The GOP has an advantage in the overall number of active voters, with almost 63,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats."

http://www.denverpost.com/poli...

not great numbers, but I don't know anything about early voting patterns in CO in past cycles.

breakdown right now is: 41.8 R, 36.4 D, 21.0 I.

PPP had Bennet +1 with a party breakdown of 37R/36D/27I.  So if these voting trends are predictive, I'd say right now Buck has somewhat of an advantage, unless Independents are breaking now more strongly Bennet than PPP found.

What's early voting like in Colorado?
If it's like early voting in places like Nevada, Georgia, and Florida, where anyone registered can vote early, this is good news for Republicans, since Democrats dominated the early voting efforts even in states they lost in 2008.

If it's more restrictive, like in Massachusetts, and limited to people who cannot make it to the polls on November 2nd, this isn't so great for Republicans, because those kinds of early voters tend to be seniors, and seniors are a GOP-friendly group this year.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Almost 80% of the vote
Was early vote in 2008.
[ Parent ]
My question exactly. This advantage matters only if it's no-excuse, and otherwise...
...it's not a big deal since early absentees would be a small percentage of the total and, yes, GOP-leaning.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
In Colorado,
early/absentee balloting is a greater percentage of total vote than any state that doesn't do vote by mail.  The vote was 54.4% early in 2006 and 78.9% early in 2008.

The final party breakdown in 2008 for the early vote was 37.7 Dem/35.9 Rep/26.4 Ind.  I'll have to see if I can track down 2006 numbers.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info, and indeed the 2006 numbers are what we need to compare. Unfortunately...
...there was no exit poll conducted in CO in 2006.  There was no Senate race that year, but there was the Governor's race, but I guess they decided that wasn't enough.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
IL-10: Charlie Cook moves it from tossup to lean Dem......
Good news for Dan Seals assuming Cook's move is justified.  Cook had IL-10 at tossup all cycle until today.  I know there was a "We Ask America" poll earlier this week that had Dold up 50-39, and we were all scratching our heads, or shitting bricks, or both.  But Cook obviously thinks the best information on the race supports that Seals just about has this one.

Of our top 4 pickup opportunities, only the Djou seat remains a tossup.  The other 3 are lean Dem.

Oh, and more good news, Cook's lean GOP list now includes AZ-03, Hulbard vs. Quayle.  I think that's a new move, I didn't think that was in the lean column before.  The other lean GOP seats Cook rates as having a chance at a Dem takeover are CA-03 (Bera vs. Lungren) and FL-25 (Garcia vs. Rivera), both not new.  FL-12, Putnam's open seat, is on there, which might be new as I don't remember it on the "lean" list before.  Charlie Dent's seat is still just a "lean," validating Adam Bonin's contention earlier today; Callahan is still in it.

The biggest disappointment, to my surprise, is that KS-04 is rated "safe" Republican, not even on the "likely R" list.  Cook thinks Goyle is toast.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

For some reason, I'd really like Goyle to win.
To provide at least one Democrat to be elected from Kansas.

What did Cook have Hi-01 before the special election? I wonder if he's accounting for all the votes Hanabusa pulled away with at the end of the special.

.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
We Ask America
is garbage.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
VA-11 Connolly endorsements
A slew of newspapers in the district have endorsed Demirocrat Gerry Connolly. Here they are...

The Fairfax Times, Oct. 20, 2010.

http://www.fairfaxtimes.com/cm...

South County Chronicle, Oct. 2010.

http://www.epageflip.net/issue...

Fairfax Connection, Oct. 19, 2010.

http://www.connectionnewspaper...

Also, traveling around town, Connolly signs outnumber Fimian signs.

Off the top of my head all those local papers often endorse D's
Where are you in the 11th? I don't think I can tell a difference in who has the most signs.
[ Parent ]
is miller going after Murk-quercue or mcadams?
also, it seems like AK likes candidates with M's this cycle.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
CA-Sen: Brown up 8, Boxer up 5, Prop 19 shot down 49-44
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

This makes it nine polls in-a-row where Boxer has led by 5 or less. (Of course, Fiorina's only led in one of those.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Field Poll
will be back in the field early next week, from what I hear.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
so nice the evil Prop 23 is going down in the poll by a large margin,
hopefully enough to withstand the misleading ads by the oil companies that will likely be appearing massively.

Also real good news: Prop 25 (junking the 2/3 budget vote requirement) is ahead big.

[ Parent ]
It looks like
 California voters will still be voting Democratic for the propositions and the candidates. Prop 19 though may not be passing because people thought that if Eric Holder enforces the law, legalizing pot here will not be much.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Oh, but how many people actually know about the distinction between state and federal law?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
PPP: non-Eastern Time Zones Poll:
Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Wisconsin

Select whatever...however, there's really no reason to poll Louisiana or New Mexico. (Jensen is not doing House races even in small states)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Actually, it might be interesting to see if Melancon's within striking distance (as in single-digits)
Alas, I went the more obvious route. I want another Wisconsin poll.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Don't vote LA for that
There will be a poll out conducted by several media organizations in Louisiana of that race on Tuesday, so we will be getting another LA poll soon. WI and OR are the only ones really still up in the air, so I voted OR.  
[ Parent ]
Voted Minnesota
I don't think PPP has polled there at all this cycle.
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin jumps out
It has two races that are relatively competitive. The only other ones really worth paying attention to are TX-Gov and OR-Gov.

I wonder why Louisiana is on there......has Melancon made up ground recently?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin
I gotta get PPP's take on Feingold-Johnson.
[ Parent ]
Texas
I'm anxious to see what effect the scandal allegations against Gov. Perry and White's near-sweep of major newspaper endorsements has had on the race standings.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
academic lit says
all endorsements do is mean that the paper is more likely to have favorable stories for the endorsee than unfavorable

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Michigan
Already posted above, I guess.  But MI-7 and MI-9 are surging for Democrats, both had been before today's poll, in fact.  The last poll in MI-1 also shows the momentum on the Dems side.

Bernero is dead in the water.  He's been consistently behind 20%.  That said, the Big Dawg will be hear on Sunday stomping for Schauer, and Dingell and Bernero, nonetheless.  That should lock up the House seats, and perhaps bring Bernero's loss ratio down.  I'm a bit confused why he'd be in Detroit and not visit Peters, but, meh.

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

Former President Bill Clinton will visit Detroit and two other Michigan cities on Sunday to campaign for three Democratic candidates - gubernatorial hopeful Virg Bernero and U.S. Reps. John Dingell and Mark Schauer, Democratic Party sources confirmed.

Clinton's afternoon swing will begin early afternoon in Detroit to rally for Bernero, the Lansing mayor who's been badly trailing Republican rival Rick Snyder, according to recent polls.

Clinton will then stump for Dingell in Ann Arbor and head to Battle Creek to appear with Schauer. Both Dingell - the longest-serving member of the U.S. House - and Schauer face tough challenges from Republican opponents.

BTW, Dingell isn't nor has he ever been in trouble, and I'm getting really tired of that silly narrative.

Silver's new House ratings up has 3 in 4 chance
of going to GOP.

He also tweeted two big new polls in PA and CA Senate races coming out tomorrow. Any ideas on who is polling? Field in California would be the big one there. Who is the polling expert in PA?

Of course...
... Silver's method of computing those odds is almost completely crap.

What? Too harsh of language?

Nah, it's not.

[ Parent ]
I trust Silver's methodology.
I just don't trust it to actually predict things accurately.

Always remember that all models are based on the past.  Different models try to predict the future using different pieces of the past, weighted differently.  But they're still using the past.  There is no guarantee whether they will be right or wrong.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I wonder what he means by "big"?
"Big," as in a high-profile, important pollster? "Big" as in Sestak up 6 and Fiorina up 4? Or, maybe a little of both? Or...maybe I'm just bored and tired and overreaching. Yeeah.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Would Silver...
...even know the results of such polls ahead of time?
[ Parent ]
Someone leaked the "Cuomo in single digits" Quinn poll a few weeks ago...
...although no mention of it on politicalwire tweets.
[ Parent ]
Franklin and Marshall?
There's the Muhlenberg (sic) tracking poll that should be updating shortly.
[ Parent ]
How shortly?
Like tonight?
[ Parent ]
Usually, they update at midnight... n/t

[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac is releasing a PA poll at 6am
Given how favorable to GOP they've been in Ohio...
[ Parent ]
From what I heard, Field
was going into the field next week, but I dunno.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I was wrong...
It's Quinnipiac for PA. They announced on their web site. I can see why silver would be excited.  Quinn's been down on dems for a long time. That would help validate his "Dems aren't coming back" theme.

Can't find California, although Field would be a biggie and they haven't released a poll in awhile.

[ Parent ]
Field released a poll two weeks ago.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
That would be awhile....
It is, after all, election season...

Who else is big in California?  PPIC released tonight and Nate acknowledged that.

[ Parent ]
He does seem invested in that narrative right now.
Any time good polling news comes in for Dems, he immediately poo-poos it. I realize that we are not going to have a great night, but I don't consider it written in stone that we lose the House and major seats in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Great is certainly relative
in this case. Considering that we are probably overrepresented in districts compared to their average political leanings, that there is an enthusiasm gap (although how large is certainly up for debate), and that the state of the economy isn't doing us any favors, a loss of 30 in the House and staying about 55 seats in the Senate would be a great result. The usual loss is around 20-25 seats, and to lose only five to ten more would be incredible. Then again, if we keep the House at all, it's a good thing. (I think we are keeping the Senate regardless.)

Keeping the House on top of the Senate would instantly change the narrative and give a much needed boost to the Obama administration. I'll go out on a limb and say that if we keep the House, there will be another stimulus.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
In other words
You think the Republicans won't all filibuster it? I'll believe it if we ever see it.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
There's got to be some way
to get past the 60-senator rule. I'm still not sure how we got to this crazy idea to begin with.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
that "crazy idea"
prevented the privitization of social security, among other things and if we didn't have a fillibuster it's reasonably possible medicare could have been drastically altered as well (in a fillibusterless world i imagine bush would have acted differently with his 55-45 majority from 2005-2007.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
SS privatization never had a majority of votes in the senate
Nor did it have a majority in the House, and there's a much stronger case that the filibuster hurts progressive initiatives (which are more likely to require congressional action) than conservative initiatives.

But, that's policy, and so I'm not going to go any further.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Sure there is
But the rules of the Senate are solely up to the Senate. And I'll bow out from this sub-thread now, lest I incur the justifiable displeasure of the much-appreciated moderators for digressing.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
CNN/Time?
In CA? I doubt it would be Reuters/Ipsos since they just released theirs on Friday and CNN has not released a poll in CA since the end of September. It could also be USC, who did a poll for the LA times was back on September 22.  
[ Parent ]
I think he was talking about the PPIC poll?
It was released at 9pm...
[ Parent ]
CT-05 / Obama records radio ad for Himes
CT-04
(by the way, for the record, I give people free rein to correct me when I make typos :P)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Oops, thanks! n/t

[ Parent ]
Not sure if it's been mentioned here yet...
President Obama's rally to support John Kitzhaber in Portland was quite well attended, with the crowd size exceeding expectations. In fact, some credible reports suggest it got over twice the turnout organizers (and Kitzhaber) had forecast (close to 10,000, near venue capacity, rather than 4,000-5,000).

http://www.katu.com/news/10539...
http://www.kgw.com/news/Pres-O...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

voting for dKos's polling this weekend
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

It's down to likely to be either:

1) a package deal of: New Hampshire 1st and 2nd CD, Gov, Sen -- 1373 votes
or
2) AZ Gov plus WI-08 -- 1594 votes

Odd options, but what is is. Go and vote

South Carolina
I mean, come on, Democrats aren't flipping Arizona. I'd love for it to happen, but South Carolina looks a lot closer.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
NY-22: Pataki to stump for George Phillips
OH-01 early vote clues
Hamilton County, which is split in half between OH-01 and OH-02, had some early vote numbers reported 15,560 Rep, 14,421 Dem, 9,335 Ind.

In 2006, the early vote in OH-01 was 4.5% more Republican than the final tally.  The early vote in OH-02 was about 1% more Republican than the final tally.  The early vote returns in Hamilton County were 2/3 for OH-01 and 1/3 for OH-02.  In 2008, however, the early vote was significantly more Democratic than the final tally.

Overall the numbers aren't too bad if things played out similar to 2006.  Not that I expect Driehaus to pull this out, but he might not be in as bad of shape as we think, and it might have some clues for other races in Ohio.

I realize
that Dreihaus is on everybody's list as among the first to go, but what makes you think that he can't pull it out if the early results are somewhat encouraging?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Would probably need a Dem vote early lead more badly
This time, compared to 2006.  I assume Independents are breaking towards Chabot.  The SUSA poll of this race had Independents going 54/34 for Chabot and really deciding the race, FWIW.
[ Parent ]
When was the last poll for this race taken?
I'd be curious to see some polling done on the contested races where there's a lot of early voting.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
End of September
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Driehaus was winning early voters by 53/45, but that was two weeks ago.

[ Parent ]
If certain polls are right and Gov. Strickland is now running nearly even...
I wonder what kind of coattails the gubernatorial race will have, and whether the movement by independents toward Rep. Sestak and Cty. Exec. Onorato next door, as well as the reawakening of Democrats in both Pennsylvania and Ohio in recent polls, might have an effect on races like this.

The DCCC doesn't seem to be willing to bet on it, but Rep. Driehaus is really sticking to his guns, isn't he?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
What exactly
do you mean when you say he's "sticking to his guns"? It sounds like you are referring to the idea that he can win, which nobody else is believing, more than his political positions. I can't imagine what else you'd mean, but please be more specific.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
What I mean is...
He's not moderating his positions, waffling, or hedging. He's running on his record and talking like he thinks he can pull it out. Of course, there's a lot of bravado to that, but it's a bold stance (echoed by the likes of Reps. Perriello, Owens, and Pomeroy, not so much by guys like Rep. McMahon) - and a gambit to be sure.

I think he's gone, but that race should end up tighter than the likes of Nate Silver forecast right now.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
PA Sen Muhlenberg Tracking
43-43

http://www.mcall.com/media/acr...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Meh...
Phillies lost tonight... Debate was on, too... both could be affecting results.

Anyone get a hint of how Sestak did?

[ Parent ]
Huh?
The Phillies losing helps Toomey?  What, do the folks in Philadelphia hold Sestek responsible for the Phillies' performance?  God help him if the Eagles lose this weekend!
[ Parent ]
Remember last yr
For NJ Gov how everyone was watching baseball to see who won, because one team winning would help Corzine and one would help Christie? Same thing here. If the team loses, it depresses voters, lowering turnout, while if they win, people are energized and don't mind getting out to vote.  
[ Parent ]
I dunno.
   There is research to suggest that if your baseball team wins you are more likely to get laid.  There isn't anything about your pet political candidate getting a turnout boost.  Hey...I just found my thesis project!

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
But the Yankees won last year
And Corzine, if I recall, did better among Yankee fans and Christie did better among Phillie fans.

I remember SUSA questioning if the World Series affected their polling, because baseball fans would be less likely to answer the phone during the game. Nonetheless, their final poll was dead on in NJ-Gov.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
LOL... No... not what I meant...
Baseball fans in and around Philly were probably not picking up their phones tonight.  We did get a conservative sample today, which could be partially explained by that.
[ Parent ]
Haha
Well, both candidates hail from Phillies country (not that there's many Pirates fans nowadays), so a Phillies loss wouldn't affect one's home base more than another.

Yeah, I'm overanalyzing.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
bwwahahaha


NY-29
[ Parent ]
I think very well.
   He had Toomey defending corporations that send jobs overseas.  Toomey said something to the effect of Pennsylvania corporations do it too!  
    My favorite exchange was about civilian trials of terrorists.  Sestak is strongly for them and pointed out that 200 terrorists were tried on American soil during the Bush presidency safely.  He said he would like nothing better than those BAST- (stops mid-word)...criminals to be be put to death.  Nearly cursing in the middle of debate was fantastic.
   Then bed-wetter Toomey mumbled about it being too dangerous.  The contrast was obvious.
   I also thought that Toomey came off as an out-of-touch aristocrat...he hardly tried to refute Sestak's charges about privatizing social security and eliminating corporate taxes.  One time he called Sestak a "demagogue," which made me laugh out loud.  Huey Long/Joe Sestak for Senate!!!  

  Oswalt?!  Really, Charlie?!  What were you thinking?!

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Rep. Sestak is really dialed in now
He started really finding his groove in the general election with that great ad tying Toomey to Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum and I think he hit his stride with the ad featuring his dog, "Belle". I didn't get a chance to watch the debate, but everything I've read suggests he walked away with a clear-cut win.

Really smart for the congressman to portray himself as military, tough on terrorism without pandering to the torture-happy, detainee-sodomizing neoconservative bloc. It brings out the right elements of American pride, I think: tough and uncompromising both on security and our nation's values.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Very conservative sample
45% D, 48% R (compared to 46% each yesterday).

All of the changes in the Senate and Gov #s are due to changes in the demos.

Only 5% AA both days, which is too low, even with a GOP tilt in 2010.

[ Parent ]
Oh aye
Way undersampling African Americans, who could very well give Rep. Sestak the winning margins in Philadelphia.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Washoe County, NV, numbers for Day 5
Wednesday, Oct. 20:

4952 total voters

2220 (or 44.8%) were Republicans
2044 (or 41.2%) were Democrats
688 (or 14%) were neither

For a grand total, after five days of early voting...

21154 total voters

9892 (or 46.8%) Republicans
8436 (or 39.9%) Democrats


How does this compare to usual stats?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Well, Washoe has a slight registration advantage to the GOP.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
These numbers are...
...just early votes and not absentee votes. Absentees not included. That's kind of important.
[ Parent ]
Although the Reid and the NV Dems are pushing
absentees harder this year than they have in previous cycles.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Washoe Co. Early Vote is in for today.
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/vot...
Positive trend for the Dems.  Also note that Biden was campaigning in Reno for Reid.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Oh, FOR THE LOVE...
WHEN WILL THE DEMS STOP BEING IN SUCH DISARRAY!?!?!

Seriously now, Washoe is a county where the Republicans would be even or ahead of Democrats, as opposed to Clark County--right?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Yes, overall, Dems are outvoting GOPers in early voting.
by like a margin of 1500ish as of the end of Tuesday early voting.  Clark County is much bigger and more Dem friendly.  Also, in NV-03, more Dems are early voting than Repubs by a margin of ~1000 so far.

In all, Dems are somewhat outperforming their 2006 early voting trends.

Also, in Clark County, Dems are outnumbering GOPers in absentee requests, but so far GOPers have a slight lead in returning them, still  an improvement over 2006.  The NV Dem party has put a lot of effort into absentees this time around.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
So once again,
I ask, WHEN WILL THE DEMS STOP BEING IN SUCH DISARRAY?

I joke about how bad the press can be at times, but while I've said that the narrative would change if the Democrats keep the House, it honestly wouldn't surprise me for all of the historical comparisons to be brushed aside and the media to focus solely on the number of seats lost.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Where are you getting
your numbers for statewide early voting totals, D vs. R? I thought Ralston implied Dems had like a 5k edge in raw numbers, but that could have been just Clark + Washoe.
[ Parent ]
Reid campaign spox Jon Summers' tweet:
Dear reporter friends. Its simple math. 44,473 Dems have voted in NV compared to 42,891 Repubs. I believe that equals a lead. #nvsen  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
What about
voters who aren't affiliated with a party? Also, it's not that likely for a highly contested race like this, what about voters who vote for the other party? There's always a few who do so for one reason or another, and a few hundred here or there can make a big difference.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Supposedly, Angle leads with independents
And Democrats voted early in higher numbers than Republicans in 2008. So while Reid may "lead" by 1600 votes, there's a whole lot of game left to be played.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Polls are showing...
Angle doesn't have a huge lead among independents, and Sen. Reid looks to be taking more Republican crossover voters than Angle is getting Democratic crossover voters.

I think it's safe to say at this point, more ballots have been cast for Reid than for Angle. But long ways to go yet.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
There is also going to be some crossover
GOP votes for Reid. Look at all of the GOP endorsements he's racked up. You won't see the opposite.  
[ Parent ]
Let's hope
that's all he's doing in Reno...

http://www.theonion.com/articl...

[ Parent ]
McAdams has another radio ad up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Very hard-hitting. n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
That ad reminds me...
It's not explicit about it, but it seems to be - at least in part - a nod to the notion that the Alaska Native vote could potentially tip a close election up in the Last Frontier State.

Clearest indication yet Mayor McAdams is done playing nice with Sen. Murkowski. He wants to lock down the voters he's siphoned from her during her intraparty tussle with professional douchebag Joe Miller.

Because Alaska is such a goddamn hard state to poll - and we're dealing with a competitive write-in bid, no less - I have to say I wouldn't be surprised to see any number in the polls off by as much as 15 points in either direction (except for maybe up, in Miller's case).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure if this is appropriate.
But I was just watching a Youtube video, and a Carly Fiorina ad came up!

It's quite exciting to actually see political ads in California for once.

http://mypolitikal.com/

Six digit Independent Expenditures from today
Team Red

AK-SEN: $295K from Club for Growth
AK-SEN: $150K from NRSC
NV-SEN: $545K from Crossroads GPS
NV-SEN: $594K from Ending Spending Fund
WA-SEN: $455K from Crossroads GPS
WA-SEN: $112K from NRSC
WI-SEN: $405K from American Action Network

TX-17: $164K from American Crossroads

Team Blue

CA-SEN: $879K from Women Vote!
IL-SEN: $542K from Working for Us PAC
MO-SEN: $154K from Commonsense Ten
NV-SEN: $419K from Patriot Majority PAC
NV-SEN: $305K from AFSCME/AFL-CIO
WA-SEN: $317K from Commonsense Ten
WV-SEN: $217K from Commonsense Ten

IL-17: $349K from America's Families First
IN-09: $178K from SEIU COPE
NH-02: $400K from America's Families First
VA-05: $285K from NEA
VA-05: $155K from League of Conservation Voters
WV-03: $188K from United Mine Workers

plus the DSCC buys mentioned upthread

I get that he has
every legal right to exercise an influence over the election with American Crossroads, but can I just say that I am disgusted Rove is doing so? He's a cancer on our political culture in numerous ways. Aside from likely giving the Obama administration a much needed boost, keeping the House will be a giant slap across Rove's face. It couldn't happen to a more deserving piece of shit.

Anyway, those are some pretty big ad buys for the Alaska Senate race. Looks like some people are worried!

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I thought I would interject....
I just watched Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater story. Karl Rove learned all of his "wonderful" tactics from Atwater.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Yes, he did.
I remember reading that Rove has had a long and somewhat sordid/ethically challenged history in politics. I'd provide some links, but for the sake of my blood pressure, and because I'd rather not waste time on him, I'll leave it to you to find.

And if I remember correctly, Atwater supposedly tried to repent for all of his dirty tactics when he was dying. I guess it's always good to see the error of your ways, even if it is particularly late in life.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Yeah he "found" god!
Although Ed Rollins said at the very end of the documentary that the cellophane wrapper had never been taken off. Also I could only imagine the ethically perverse things Rove has done.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Once I am done
with applications and waiting to hear back, I am going to have a lot more free time on my hands. I should write myself a note to read up on the U.S. Attorneys scandal. I quite literally have no recollection of what happened with that, which annoys me.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Once I am done
with applications and waiting to hear back, I am going to have a lot more free time on my hands. I should write myself a note to read up on the U.S. Attorneys scandal. I quite literally have no recollection of what happened with that, which annoys me.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
MN-01: DCCC going up on air.
$276K buy.
[ Parent ]
Is this something we should worry about
or is it just more of what has already been going on? That's a lot of money to be spending, so I have to think it's slightly more than a defensive move. People say Walz won't lose, but I don't really know anything about the district or the race he's in.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I'm not worried about it
They're just matching the NRCC spending in the district, which seems to be their usual strategy this cycle.  MN-01 is probably only going down in a 50+ seat wave, it won't decide the election.
[ Parent ]
Not what you want to see...
But at least they seem to have the money to spend.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
What are those AK-Sen charges for?
The NRSC is probably propping up Miller, but what about the CfG?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
It's a TV ad buy
Pro-Miller ad, I haven't seen it.
[ Parent ]
New Sestak Numbers!
http://www.mcall.com/news/loca...

Sestak 43

Toomy 43

I call this race Tossup.  Most definitely.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Well I feel stupid
There is a thread way up this page I didn't see.  CURSE YOU LAZYNESS!!!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I should stop following this thread.
The sheer size of it is taking me a long time to find the new comments.

I think we need three daily open threads...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Completely agree
I'm not able to get on here until night.  By then, the threads are already a hundred, or two hundred posts long.  There needs to be some kind of new layout or something to handle the interest.
[ Parent ]
So much SSP
I am loving it.  I am ready for these 300 comment daily digest posts to die on November 3rd though...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I'm only on SSP between
roughly 4 AM-10 AM Eastern. And I'm going to be internetless for all of next week since I'll be in Korea. Playing that much catchup in such a short period of time before the election might be impossible.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
You're doing a whole East Asia Tour, aren't you?
China, Japan, and Korea. Any other countries coming up?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I was in China/am in Japan
for an extended amount of time. Korea is just a week for fall break. No other countries planned so far, but we'll see. I gotta say, given how maniacal I am about elections as it is, I hate to see how I'd be if I were actually in America surrounded by constant election news coverage.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Traveling is an invaluable experience
When my family was living in Malaysia in the 1970s, we weren't able to follow the Carter presidential campaign well enough for my parents to feel sufficiently informed to vote. But we sure did learn a great deal about what it means to be human, by being steeped in another culture.

Parenthetically, President Obama had a similar experience growing up in Indonesia, and that's molded his character more than some people realize.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I wouldn't trade being here for anything.
Besides...I already voted, so I'm still fulfilling my American duties even as I do my thing here. :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
but
This doesn't really represent "new" numbers - not in the sense of an entirely new poll that would confirm yesterday's polls: Only 1/4th of the poll's sample has changed from the survey that had Sestak up 44-41 24 hours ago.
[ Parent ]
Walberg (R) MI-07
Man, Walberg was pretty roundly stomped in the debate, last night.  Schauer was off his game in last weeks debate, but this week, Walberg was on the defense during the ENTIRE debate with the crowd behind Schauer, to boot.

Immediately after the debate, the channel has been nothing but Schauer ads (I saw two Walberg ads).  I'm feeling the momentum on the ground, too, that was missing for awhile.  Schauer has the superior ground game simply for the fact that he served as an assistant floor leader in the state house, floor leader in the state senate, and ultimately the state senate minority leader until 2008.

Sestak down 2 in Q poll
Yup, toss-up


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I was worried
they were gonna kill the Sestak boomlet in its tracks. But this a really good showing for us, from a pollster that seems to have a pretty tight LV screen.
[ Parent ]
West ahead by 3 in Republican poll
http://www.sunshinestatenews.c...

47-44.  Which is probably good news for Klein.

Despite trying to hide behind "Sunshine News," this is Voter Survey Service:

http://www.votersurveyservice....

Strong Democratic turnout in early voting

Election Day is already over for more than 3 million Americans, and a surprising number of them are Democrats.

Republicans clearly are gaining ground in turning out early voters compared with their showing two years ago, but figures from the first batch of states that offer clues about 2010 early voting patterns still give Democrats an edge in a number of states and big counties.

"If people thought the Democrats were just going to roll over and play dead in this election, that's not what we're seeing," said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University professor who tracks early voting nationally. "They've got to be feeling a little bit better with the numbers that they're seeing."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...

SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Afternoon Edition) | 356 comments

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