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PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Second Poll in Two Days With Sestak Lead

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 12:44 PM EDT


Muhlenberg (pdf): for Allentown Morning Call (10/16-19, likely voters, 9/28-10/4 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 44 (38)
Pat Toomey (R): 41 (45)
Undecided: 15 (14)

Dan Onorato (D): 40 (37)
Tom Corbett (R): 47 (47)
Undecided: 14 (16)
(MoE: ±5%)

As you probably recall, yesterday PPP came out with a poll giving Joe Sestak a one-point lead over Pat Toomey, in marked contrast to, well, everyone else; at that point, it was too early to declare "game changer" without confirmation from someone else. Well, we didn't have to wait very long at all: Muhlenberg is out with the first installment in what will be a daily tracker until the election, and it has Sestak leading by 3. (Which leads to the question: most effective poop-themed ad ever?) Remember that Muhlenberg's tracker during the primary steadily showed Sestak emerging into view and overtaking Arlen Specter at the end. It looks like we're seeing something remarkably similar.

Impressively, it's still a pretty GOP-friendly sample, with respondents identifying as 46% Dem, 46% GOP, 8% indie (in a state with a sizable Dem registration advantage), and with 42/51 Barack Obama approvals. The gubernatorial race also shows some improvement, though not enough to cause anyone to rethink that race the way we'll have to regarding the Senate race. Also importantly, there's significant tightening on the House generic ballot in Pennsylvania: 44-39 for the GOP, down from 48-36 several weeks ago. If that keeps up, that probably makes the difference in terms of several House seats, in a state where we could potentially lose five or more.
Crisitunity :: PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Second Poll in Two Days With Sestak Lead
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PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Second Poll in Two Days With Sestak Lead | 56 comments
42-51
Approvals for Obama seem about right, considering his national approval rating in about 46-51, and he won PA by a slightly larger margin than he won nationwide. So by purely logical rights it should be higher there, but it's obviously not, still I never bought those polls that showed enormous disapproval ratings for Obama in PA.

As for the registration, if Muhlenberg pressures people into a party identification, to get rid of the faux self-labeled indy voters that normally support one party or another, that seems a very accurate representation of PA's electorate.  

the question is can he go higher?
pollster has sestak at an average of 42, counting the two polls from yesterday.  is what we're seeing solid movement towars sestak (as suggested by the indies rushing to him) or is it merely indies and conservadems giving him one more kick of the tires.  sorry to be a wet blanket on this, i'm hoping he wins too, but i don't think we should get TOO ahead of ourselves.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
From inside the enemy camp

Republican strategists are growing more and more concerned about the state of the Senate race in Pennsylvania, where former Rep. Pat Toomey has held a commanding lead for weeks over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak.

. . . .

A Republicans strategist who is advising several campaigns in the Keystone State, but not Toomey's, said that the situation is "dangerous" and that the risks were "very real."

http://politics.blogs.foxnews....

link to santorum
Sestak has an ad out linking toom to santorum..pretty good idea and one I wouldn't have thought of.  Kind of surprised onorato isn't at 42-43 bit I suppose that could be moe.
[ Parent ]
Here's the ad...

[ Parent ]
I may be mistaken
but i thought toomey was pro-choice.  am i thinking of some other prominent PA republican who's pro-choice?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Tom Ridge?

[ Parent ]
maybe specter?
wiki says toomey has 100% pro-life, so unless it was hacked, i guess i was wrong.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
toomey very pro life
As others have mentioned.  It's coming up in sestak ads also; I think I saw one that mentioned it the other day.
[ Parent ]
Toomey flip-flopped
He was pro-choice in the late 1990s, when he first ran for congress. He flip-flopped in 2004 so he could run to Specter's right iirc
[ Parent ]
That ad is going to play really well in the Philly 'burbs! (eom)

[ Parent ]
onorato
Im not surprised he's not doing better, rendell may be just as unpopular and therefore an electoral drag, as ahnold is to whitman.  the state seems to want someone new and a different party in harrisburg.  

Also, remember back in late 2008 and early 2009 when it was SLIGHTLY possible Chris matthews was going to be our nominee (or at least run).  imagine how scary that would be now!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Strange Parts of the Poll
It's strange that the sample voted for McCain 49 to 43 but still Sestak leading. Its also weird that about 30% of the sample has a neutral opinion of Sestak and Toomey.  
kind of think it malkes sense.
Both have good ads.  Both have their good point and bad points.  I also thinly the undecideds being this high is also probable.  PA is never a monolith but this year I think the voting patterns will show more crossover voting than usual (outside philly that is).
[ Parent ]
Debates tonight and friday...
will go a long way in this race I think.  

I'm not surprised that McCain voters are voting Sestak, both because Sestak is military and might be getting that demo of McCain voters, but also Toomey lost the GOP primary in 2004 and was considered far right.  He tried to moderate himself this campaign, but his past quotes are coming back to haunt him and are appearing in Sestak attack ads.  

Debates
I don't think debates will make any difference in this, or almost all, senate races.  No one watches them, and coverage of them hasn't moved numbers.  The only one I can recall that may have made a difference was the Kerry-Weld debate in '96.
[ Parent ]
You could be right...
They could be past their usefulness as candidates just spout boilerplate talking points anymore.  

I hope you're right in this case because I never found Sestak much of a debater.  

Also the Phillies play tonight, an 8pm start time.  

[ Parent ]
phillies
Is right.

Debates only matter of an event happens.  It probably won't.

[ Parent ]
How did that debate change things?
I tried looking it up but couldn't find anything specific, other than that they had 7 or 8 debates, which is a lot by modern standards.

I did find this interesting article from Time on the race:
http://www.time.com/time/inter...

My favorite part: (about Weld)

His reliance on old-style patronage was evident in June 1995, when he threw his support behind an anachronistic state mandate that only off-duty police officers be hired to oversee roadwork.

Ah, Massachusetts.  How little things change...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Debates
They held a series of debates, and the impression was that Kerry had bested Weld in what was a very close race between two strong candidates.
[ Parent ]
This article on George Bush and John Kerry's debating styles
has a few things to say on the '96 debates. The relevant material is fourteen paragraphs from the bottom. Amazingly, Weld claimed that his performance in the first debate was off because he was distracted by a chess game. They sure don't make politicians like that anymore.

20, Ind, PA-14
[ Parent ]
I remember
reading a little about Weld back when Kerry was running. He seems like a genuinely decent guy, and not merely because his politics are, in some ways, similar to those of the Clintons, whom he counts as friends.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Sestak
has also gotten some big crossover endorsements, including Hagel and Bloomberg. The latter isn't a true "crossover," but probably close enough. Problem is, when Bloomberg made the endorsement, it was at the height of the mosque controversy, so it could have worked against Sestak at the time, especially in the T.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
It may also be of note that Toomey is not exactly a firm social conservative (although very extreme on economic issues). Hard to see that appealing to some of the socially conservative/ economically liberal voters out in the West of the state.

[ Parent ]
west pa
Will be interesting.  I see voters there going hard for corbett but giving sestak and Dem house candidates more support.  Might be especially evident in districts like Holden and Critz.
[ Parent ]
Won't the fact that Onorato is from Pittsburgh
Hold down Corbett somewhat? Not that I don't expect him to win but the smaller the gap the better for Sestak.
[ Parent ]
I don't think so.
   Onorato is from western Pennsylvania too.  Onorato is weak in the eastern part of the state.  Corbett nearly won Delaware County (Philly suburb) outright in 2008 when he was reelected attorney general, while Obama was winning 60%.  I expect to see the same depressing phenomenon again.  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Onorato is weak here, too
I'm in Critz' district for school. There are very few Onorato signs on the ground, as opposed to Sestak signs that have been popping up all over the place. I was talking to a Critz campaign worker (Who guarenteed me a Critz victory, if that means anything), who said they've been working with Sestak's people on and off, but got nothing from Onorato's people.  

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
big Slovak-American community in western PA
should help Sestak.
[ Parent ]
Yep.
PA is a bit weird, because issue position combinations that work in other parts of the country don't necessarily work well there.  Toomey's hardcore fiscal "conservatism" (if you want to call the CfG types fiscal conservatives) won't play well with a lot of the social conservatives there, who are often economic liberals.  And the social conservatism hurts with PA's fiscal conservatives, who are often rather socially liberal.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
I agree.
   As I have said before, Sestak is the perfect candidate to hold the disparate Pennsylvania Democratic coalition together this year.  There is something for everyone in his candidacy.  Liberals and Blacks like his support for the Obama agenda, macho Dems like his military background, Democratic women appreciate that he is unabashedly pro-choice, Union Dems know that he is on their side, and suburban moderates/crunchy cons like his sense of responsibility.  Specter NEVER could have held this coalition together against Toomey.  I doubt anyone else could have either.  If you look at how Sestak won the Democratic primary you'll notice it is basically the Hillary Clinton coalition.  The Hillary coalition is hard to beat in Pennsylvania; in the primary and in the general.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Absentee ballots
GOP request advantage in PA is 8 points compared to their 1 point lead in 2006 and 4 points in 2008. Obviously that doesn't matter too much if Sesak takes a good proportion of those Republicans.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

You have to wonder
how much of the drop off is from Democrats who were, for whatever reason, engaged in 2008 but not now. It's probably some combination of the lack of the presence of Obama for America and not being old Democrats but newly-registered ones.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
127,000 absentee ballots requested...
50% are Republican and 42% Democrat, so if all are returned it's 63,500 Toomey votes and 53 340 for Sestak, or a 10,000 advantage for Toomey.    
[ Parent ]
We can do better than that
PPP has Sestak winning 8% of Republicans and Toomey winning 14% of Dems.

Muhlenberg on the other hand must have Sesak doing better with Republicans since their turnout model is 46-46 and McCain +6.

[ Parent ]
Why would Sestak win GOPers? He'll get minimal crossover I think. But your numbers are helpful because...
...the 2008 exit poll showed Dems with a 44-37 party ID advantage, and 2006 showed Dems with a 43-38 party ID advantage.

So they had a 4-point absentee advantage that evaporated into a 5-point deficit, and a 1-point advantage that evaporated into a 7-point deficit.  That's a drop of 8-9 points from absentee to total.

That means the current pace would have the GOP matching Dems in vote share.  Not necessarily fatal for Sestak since today's Muhlenberg poll actually shows a dead-even 46D-46R sample, and still Sestak is up 3.  But I hope state Dems can gin up turnout and establish some kind of small advantage in overall turnout.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
He must be winning some Republicans
Unless Muhlenberg have up big with indies.
[ Parent ]
Why
Some might be from his district.  Others may be pro-choice Republican women in Montgomery and Bucks counties.  Specter Republicans.
[ Parent ]
That also supports
My turnout projection. Again, based on the NJ 2009 exit poll - +7 becomes +1.
[ Parent ]
I actually agree that Sestak won't win many GOP-ers
By my estimation, he might garner 7% to Toomey's 13% among Democrats, but I don't think cross-over voting will decide this thing. I see a voter model around 46D/42R/12I, and I suspect this'll come squarely down to Sestak's GOTV abilities in the Dem strongholds. Right now, I still have Toomey up 2 and Corbett up 10. Could be that for Sestak to prevail, he needs Onorato to close to single-digits.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
In regards to the Democrats
pulling out or scaling back in some of districts, what can we make of this? Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03 has been written off for at least a week, and while that sucks, that's merely one in what is bound to be a loss of at least 25 seats. What about the others? It's hard to think that sufficient tightening is occuring for the DCCC to drop out or scale back. Are any of these candidates wealthy enough to drop money into their own campaigns? What else could be happening?

Also, does anyone know anything about Sestak's ground game? You'd have to imagine that there's been at least some help from Obama for America, unions, and the state party, but what does that mean? If it's strong, it could make the difference in several House races, as Crisitunity said, and thus in holding the House.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

GOTV
The SEIU is going to spend $2 million in a GOTV operation.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

PA 3 is the only district that's probably gone.  PA 7, 8, 10 and 11 are still up for grabs.

[ Parent ]
Not PA-15?
Biden was recently there, if I am not mistaken. That doesn't mean it's in the bag, of course, but why spend time campaigning against Dent when there are at least five other House candidates, plus a Senate candidate, that could have used a visit in that state alone?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
No, out of reach
Last poll had Dent ahead by double digits.  And if you couldn't knock him off in '06 or '08, you're not going to do so this year.
[ Parent ]
Then what the hell was Biden doing
campaigning for him? Perhaps I misread the article and he was in a district near Dent's.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Wrong.
That last poll, I thought, was a campaign internal.  Callahan and Dent are equal on CoH at about 800K each; it's a real race.  
[ Parent ]
Poll
[ Parent ]
I simply don't believe it.
But that is an independent poll.
[ Parent ]
They ran nobodies against him
in 06 and 08.  
[ Parent ]
Wasn't one of them Siobhan "Sam" Bennet?
I know she at least made some effort.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
That campaign never
got off the ground. Had Callahan run in 2008, he would have won.  
[ Parent ]
Very correct
and Trivedi would have won as well in 2008.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
we didnt try in 06 and 08 though

[ Parent ]
With union GOTV efforts ramping up...
I'm starting to suspect it's Rep. Sestak who is now the frontrunner going into the last days here.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
KY-SEN poll
This may be old news by now, I don't know. But it's a DSCC poll conducted Sunday and Monday showing...

Jack Conway 49%
Rand Paul 47%

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

One more thing.
  Sestak brought up Palin and O'Donnell several times during last night's debate, and those two characters are clearly unpopular in Pennsylvania.  But it was more revealing that Toomey never mentioned Obama at all!  Not once.  Does anyone believe that if Obama's approvals were as far in the toilet as polling suggests (40-51 in latest Quinnipiac) that Toomey would shy away from this angle?
  My guess is that Obama is only slightly below parity in Pennsylvania, and that Toomey does not want to wake up hardcore Obama supporters.

24, Male, GA-05
PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Second Poll in Two Days With Sestak Lead | 56 comments

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