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SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 8:12 AM EDT


Too many polls, too little time. A quick-and-dirty morning digest for you.

  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov - SurveyUSA: Boxer (D-inc) 46, Fiorina (R) 44; Brown 47 (D), Whitman (R) 40

  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov (PDF) - Wilson Research (R): Boxer (D-inc) 43, Fiorina (R) 46; Brown (D) 44, Whitman (R) 45

  • CO-Sen, CO-Gov (PDF) - Ipsos/Reuters: Bennet (D) 45, Buck (R) 48; Hickenlooper (D) 46, Maes (R) 14, Tancredo (ACP) 35

  • FL-02 - Susquehanna for Sunshine State News: Boyd (D-inc) 38, Southerland (R) 50

  • GA-Gov - Insider Advantage: Barnes (D) 40, Deal (R) 45

  • KY-Sen - Bennet, Petts and Normington (D) for the DSCC: Conway (D) 49, Paul (R) 47

    • Note: I'm informed that this poll had a sample of 600.

  • MA-04 - Kiley & Co. (D) for Barney Frank: Frank (D-inc) 56, Bielat (R) 37

  • MD-Gov, MD-Sen (PDF) - Gonzales Research: O'Malley (D-inc) 47, Ehrlich (R) 42; Mikulski (D-inc) 55, Wargotz (R) 38

  • NC-Sen (PDF) - Public Policy Polling: Burr (R-inc) 48, Marshall (D) 40

  • NJ-06 - National Research (R): Pallone (D-inc) 44, Little (R) 43

  • NY-19 (PDF) - Monmouth: Hall (D-inc) 49, Hayworth (R) 48

  • NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (PDF) - New York Times: Schumer (D-inc) 61, Townsend (R) 21; Gillibrand (D-inc) 50, DioGuardi (R) 25

  • OH-Gov - Quinnipiac: Strickland (D-inc) 41, Kasich (R) 51

  • OR-Gov, OR-Sen - Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos: Kitzhaber (D) 48, Dudley (R) 47; Wyden (D-inc) 56, Huffman (R) 40

  • SC-Gov (PDF) - Crantford & Associates (D): Sheheen (D) 41, Haley (R) 43

  • UT-02 Dan Jones & Associates: Matheson (D-inc) 57, Philpot (R) 31

  • WI-Sen - St. Norbert: Feingold (D-inc) 47, Johnson (R) 49

  • WI-07 - We Ask America: Lassa (D) 39, Duffy (R) 46

    • Margins & Errors: Marc Ambinder tweets about supposedly close internals on both sides in OH-Gov... If the gang at NBC is to be believed, Joe Miller might be turning into Bizarro Scozzafava: "Miller's getting close to being in free-fall if some private polling is to be believed."... The Fix faithfully transcribes a batch of NRCC polls, without firm names, sample sizes, or field dates
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Morning Edition) | 103 comments
    Barny is up 56-37 in his own poll, not 46-37.
    You almost gave me a heart attack!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    OR 1: Wu up by 9
    51=42 in SUSA poll.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

    Scotty votes for Scott
    In response to three straight polls showing Sink in the lead, Scotty R. shows Scott ahead 50-44.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Plus he has Rubio up by 11.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Scotty's really on an island with this one.
    Even Republican pollsters have been coming up with Sink leads the past few weeks.  For Ras to say Scott's not only leading, but pulling away ... just wow.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    That said, I've heard inside rumors
    that Scott has basically bought up most or all the available air time through election day, and that the Sink camp is very nervous about its ability to compete in the air going forward.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    So
    Scott is hoping a last minute ad blitz + Marco Rubio will carry him to victory?

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    Probably more than hoping
    expecting I'd guess.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Radio then
    Tv is great but i'm guessing people still listen to the radio while driving to work.

    How did she get snookered with having no ad time until election day?

    [ Parent ]
    Well it's just a rumor.
    I haven't heard anything about it in the media, so don't hold me to it.  If it's true, it's a collossally stupid blunder, which should have been seen coming from a mile away.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Well the DNC is flush after stunningly great late fundraising, so they should buy some IE ads down there. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Rick Scott
    This race is swinging back and forth, depending on the negative ads on air, last time that Scott was in the lead, like 2 weeks ago and a bit more, after Sink leads, Rasmussen was the first to show it and they other followed and then it reversed and then it might have reversed again.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
    Ugh
    I really want to keep OH-Gov and win FL-Gov.
    FL-Gov
    What I'm finding when I talk to people, is that undecideds are breaking for Scott.  Mostly because those who had reservations about him now seem to have them about Sink as well and are just going into default GOP mode.  Sink's 'Law Enforcement' ad was good, but she hasn't come up with an effective one since then.  If she had another good one in her bag, now is the time to let it out.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    The question is who are "the people" you "talk to"......
    My experience is that even door-knocking isn't worth anything in learning about the leanings of an electorate.  I've done enough door-knocking in my own neighborhood the previous couple cycles to THINK I MIGHT have a rough idea of my immediate neighborhood's lean, but as I commented on a SSP thread a week or two ago, if I had to guess my precinct's leanings based on experience and observation I would say Republican, while the hard data proves a a Democratic lean.

    And I consider my conversations with colleagues, friends, family, or acquaintenances to be COMPLETELY worthless for gauging what's happening in an election.  We all live in more of an echo chamber than we might realize, I think.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    IL-Sen
    Ras showing Kirk up 4 over Sexy Lexi - still a tie, as far as I am concerned.

    Kirk        44(43)
    Giannoulias 40(44)

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    I think
    Illinoisans should find some way to put an "None of the Above" option on the ballot. Because they've put some really crappy candidates on the ballot, GOP and Dems this year.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    PA-SEN
    another poll shows Sestak lead

    http://www.latimes.com/news/po...

    C'mon, Admiral.
    Pull this off.
    [ Parent ]
    Comments on this website
    I've been looking through the archives on the website, and there are lots of incredibly stupid comments on the posts I'm looking at (May 2004) (some good ones, but still). Was there any specific time where DavidNYC started bringing the banhammer down to make things better (a LOT better), or was it just the effect of as you went down further into the weeds, the trolls mostly lost interest? Just curious, because SSP has pretty much the best comments of any website that I go to (and that is quite a few!)

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
    If you can draw an audience of people who are hyperfocused on fine details, then...
    ...the less uninformed people largely lose interest.

    The moderators' policing matters a LOT, I don't dismiss that at all, I was recently reminded of that myself!

    But moderators can't COMPLETELY control the discussion through mere policing, I think what they have found a way to do is to direct the discussions toward a narrow niche that doesn't interest even many political junkies.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    We didn't really start to get aggressive
    until about a year or two ago - the reason for that being the fact that we don't enjoy policing this site. But it became apparent that we have to do it. Users who were either abusive of other users or prone to off-topic derails started to pollute nearly every thread. It is because we cracked down hard - and continue to crack down hard - that the comments stay readable.

    So please... be excellent to each other. And stay on topic!

    [ Parent ]
    What James said is right
    But - the comments here were quite good before just a year or two ago. I think we had to start cracking down on derails more starting in 2009 because Dem control of the all the branches of government started making people more interested in legislation - and thus people started fighting about those sorts of off-topic things more.

    As for the early days, I think maybe when I was first starting out the site, I a) definitely knew a lot less than I know now about community moderation and b) probably didn't want to scare people off when the site was so much smaller! I'm mostly guessing about "b," since I can't entirely recall - though I do know that I valued a thoughtful comments section from pretty early on, and definitely engaged in moderation as needed.

    [ Parent ]
    Margin of error in partisan polls
    Quite a number of leaked internals have pretty high margins of error (often 5.7%).  I can't imagine most campaigns would settle for such a high MoE in their "real" polling.  Could it be that the polls with higher MoE are more likely to have been deliberately tilted some way while other leaked internals may actually show what the campaign is seeing?  Or am I just demonstrating why I bombed stats?

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


    Larry Sabato tweets the answers to your questions......
    In successive tweets within the last 12 years, Sabato says:

    You are a fool if you believe any new publicly released polls paid for by the campaigns or parties. Pure spin & manipulation this late.

    The PRIVATE campaign & party polls are often better than the independent public polling. But this info is released selectively or not at all

    In other words, yes a lot of what WE see is JUNK.  Which I think we suspect.  The problem is SOME of it is NOT junk, and we really don't have enough information as mere campaign junkies to know which is which.

    At least, I don't.

    I accept every private poll as a tea leaf and throw it in the pile of tea leaves for a given race, and try to guess if we're winning or losing that race.  But it's happened often this fall that I keep finding new tea leaves that force me to reverse my conclusions, in both directions, for example after reading Stu Rothenberg's column yesterday revealing that our incumbents have recovered in Arizona and have a real chance to win after all.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    the way I always saw it...
    Is that most (large) campaigns are constantly polling, maybe with even more than one company.  So they have tons of results, and then they can cherry pick what they release.  Look at the Gallup daily Pres. Obama tracker.  Now imagine you only had to release 1 of those a week.  You could paint two different pictures by which you chose to release.
    [ Parent ]
    I think that's right, but not the whole story......
    I think they might also poll sometimes with a favorable turnout model and/or an informed ballot test, and then release it to create a news buzz and help raise money.

    Ben Smith called out the poll William Kristol touted from Dennis Kucinich's GOP challenger the other day as serving just that purpose.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I don't know about the first...
    But I have to agree with Sabato on the second point. As I've been saying repeatedly here, much of the public polling this cycle is pure crap and more often we're hearing about various private polls from reliable pollsters completely contradicting the media narratives of various races based on most public polls. That's why some DC pundits have (again) been prematurely writing Harry Reid's political obituary while local pundits like Ralston and Sebelius know better. That's why hardly anyone caught Joe Sestak's (again) late surge until PPP and Muhlenburg confirmed what insiders were saying the private polls were already showing. And that's why Michael Bennet probably has a better chance of holding his seat than many DC pundits think.

    And btw, going back to the first point, I won't automatically dismiss party committees' and campaigns' internal polls... If the internals make sense and they line up with what the more reputable publicly released polls say, they're not all that bad. But if they're out of whack with all other indicators, then I toss them in the recycle bin.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    miller
    would he drop out?  he seems too arrogant and self serving, but i thought the same about hoffman and he dropped out earlier too.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    Think Dan Maes...
    I think Miller's numbers will keep dropping. If Mayor McAdams gets good turnout and voters are apathetic about writing in "Lisa Murkowski", Alaska could end up with two Democratic senators.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Hoffman never dropped out
    It was Scozzafava, the moderate Republican (sorta-endorsed by Kos) who dropped out (and who, I believe, then endorsed Bill Owens, the Democrat.)

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
    [ Parent ]
    That was 2009
    this year, Hoffman dropped out and endorsed Matt Doheny (Republican/Independence lines).

    However, unlike Miller, Hoffman didn't win the GOP primary.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

    [ Parent ]
    also unlike miller
    hoffman didn't handcuff a journalist and decry every federal program under the sun that he's been on.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    [ Parent ]
    also unlike Miller
    Hoffman wasn't in first place for most of the campaign.

    honestly, I doubt Miller drops out--and that's good for us.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

    [ Parent ]
    Cuomo ahead by 37
    63-26 in Siena poll.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_...

    NY
    He may actually match Spitzer's victory, which would be very helpful to Bishop and McCarthy, but I'm not sure if even with those margins if it would help upstate.

    29/D/Male/NY-01
    [ Parent ]
    McCarthy isn't in trouble
    But those numbers definitely help Bishop, because Cuomo is going to run strong in Suffolk County.
    [ Parent ]
    Siena
    had Bishop +12 last week.
    [ Parent ]
    Yup, which is a pleasant surprise
    I was really worried about him for a while, given the fact he represents the kind of rich suburban district that I figured most likely to be upset with Obama. But I forgot that his district has a very large, very reliable Democratic base of 45% or so and that he appears to have secured his position quite well among moderates and independents there over the past decade.  
    [ Parent ]
    Bishop's district is weird.
    There are some really, really rich areas--it's the rest of Long Island after the end of Israel's district, so it includes the Hamptons--but it's not uniformly so. There are certainly some towns in the district that aren't the height of sophistication.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    I'm glad
    Cuomo seems to have reacted well since the primary surge; he didn't pull a Coakley and instead he went up the air with aggressive ads, took off the kiddies gloves, and went full-throttle with getting the backing of the news media. And Paladino proved he wasn't up to the pressure. I think this race will be 63-33-4 in the end.  
    [ Parent ]
    Pfft.
    RAS has Paladino leading 76-5.
    [ Parent ]
    ROTFLMAO!!
       That was a good one...

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
    [ Parent ]
    Gilibrand at 60% too
    Could be a slightly D-heavy survey.
    [ Parent ]
    Or it could just be
    that Paladino has publicly imploded, and Gillibrand, (who was hovering in the mid-50s in polling anyway), has buried Dioguardio in ads, (she had a 10-1 financial advantage).  
    [ Parent ]
    Yes, plus DioGuardi's gone dark since his intro ad
    I've heard rumblings that DioGuardi's saved up everything for the final stretch.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Final stretch?! Really?! Because 11 days before the election is too soon? That's really bad for him. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: Jon Ralson helps provide useful, and happy for us, perspective on early turnout......
    Here's the link:

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/new...

    And here's the key graf:

    So what do we know so far? Not a lot. I have three days worth of data to peruse, just under a fourth of the 14-day total. Despite reports elsewhere, the Republicans have yet to show any unusual surge in voting, and The Reid Machine is holding its own.

    So far, in the state's two urban counties, the Republicans have less than a percentage point edge in turnout. If the Republican turnout edge by the end of early voting is 5 percent or so - standard for a midterm - the Democrats will be pretty happy, albeit edgy.

    Reid needs a small GOP margin to survive. It comes down to something either candidate might say in an unguarded moment if asked by an innocent voter what the election is really all about:

    It's the turnout, stupid.


    This is what's hard to gauge, the MEANING of early turnout numbers.  Politico ran a piece yesterday that said early turnout numbers were bad for Reid.  I read it suspiciously, and sure enough all they relied upon were raw numbers of Dems and GOPers voting to draw their conclusion.  You have to do apples-to-apples, comparing midterm to midterm and measuring each party's turnout against its percentage of total registered voters.  And even then I find I get confused and frustrated and give up before I can draw a confident conclusion.

    I'm glad Ralston is experienced enough in following Nevada elections to tell us the bottom line.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    another factor we don't know
    is what kind of early voters the parties are turning out. In a midterm election banking an early vote from an unreliable voter (someone who participated in only one of the last three elections) is more valuable than banking an early vote from someone who hasn't missed a primary or general election in 10 years. The former is a vote you might not have gotten, the latter is a vote that would have been cast on November 2 anyway.

    Looking at the raw numbers doesn't tell you what kind of early voters are participating.

    If you're following downballot races, it's obviously important to know where the early voters are by state legislative district in addition to the statewide totals.

    [ Parent ]
    Whoops! Sorry I missed you up here...
    Now let me explain some more what's happening.

    Basically, Politico is full of sh*t. Unless there are a whole lot of "Democrats for Angle" coming out of the wood work (and no, I hardly ever run into those), I have a hard time seeing how a Dem lead in the early vote numbers AND slightly more Dems voting this year than in 2006 is "bad for Reid". Is there room for improvement? Again, I honestly think so. So far, it looks like mostly the "reliable voters" are going out and more work may need to be done to get those Obama voters out again (and btw, guess who's coming on Friday to help with precisely that?).

    So let's recap what's happening...

    - Republicans are only overperforming their registration numbers by about 1%.

    - However, Republicans are also slightly underperforming their proportion of 2006 turnout.

    - Democrats are maintaining a solid edge in Clark (Vegas) turnout, and are just narrowly behind in Washoe (Reno/Tahoe).

    If things stay as is and Dems hold our own on Election Day, it all probably points to a nailbiting-but-just-make-it close Reid win. And if Obama succeeds in boosting Dem turnout this weekend, it may be the final push Reid needs to clinch it for sure.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    your last paragraph
    Is a little bit more sobering than the "even Republicans know she's going to lose badly..." idea that have brightened our days for the last couple of weeks.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm being realistic...
    I knew all along this would be close. I never expected a landslide. However, I've also had trouble seeing some huge "RED TIDE!!!" sweeping the state (and country). I'm just not seeing that.

    And you won't see it either when you look at the early vote totals so far. Again, there's hardly any "enthusiasm gap".

    It really just comes down to turnout. Angle could still win if Dems just don't vote from here on... But I doubt that will happen. If we continue on this trajectory, Reid will probably win narrowly. And if Obama works his magic this weekend and drives up Dem turnout even more, Reid may end up winning more comfortably than most everyone has been expecting.

    At this point, it's all about turnout.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    The DNC has raised $11.1 million in the first 13 days of October.
    Holy crap, that's a lot!
    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    Enthusiasm gap my ass


    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    IA-02
    Both the Des Moines Register and the Cedar Rapids Gazette endorsed Dave Loebsack. I was surprised by the Gazette, because that is a more conservative leaning newspaper in general, and they had endorsed Miller-Meeks in 2008.
    NV-Sen: "It's the TURNOUT, Stupid!"
    That's what I've been telling everyone here for some time, and this morning Ralston came to the same conclusion.

    So what do we know so far? Not a lot. I have three days worth of data to peruse, just under a fourth of the 14-day total. Despite reports elsewhere, the Republicans have yet to show any unusual surge in voting, and The Reid Machine is holding its own.

    So far, in the state's two urban counties, the Republicans have less than a percentage point edge in turnout. If the Republican turnout edge by the end of early voting is 5 percent or so - standard for a midterm - the Democrats will be pretty happy, albeit edgy.

    Reid needs a small GOP margin to survive. It comes down to something either candidate might say in an unguarded moment if asked by an innocent voter what the election is really all about:

    It's the turnout, stupid.

    And unless there was a HUGE GOP surge in Washoe yesterday (unlikely, since Sarah Palin arrived and left Monday), the Clark early vote numbers point to a still standing Dem lead.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    who's fille out their early/absentee ballot already?
    just finished mine.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    Early voted on Monday.
    Meek/Sink/Castor

    Yes on Fair Districts for Florida.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Would have told you to vote for Crist
    Though since Meek hasn't dropped out and early voting is still on, I'm not expecting a pickup here.

    Granted, it's simply a lost opportunity.  Let's hunker down and play defense elsewhere.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    I voted on Monday!
    And no, I didn't vote by the dishwashing soap. The polls were actually closer to the wine and spirits department of my local Vons. :-)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
    [ Parent ]
    I sent my absentee ballot in on Saturday
    I voted Brown/Boxer/Hedrick/Harris.  I have no idea why anyone would vote for Cooley, especially if that person is a democrat.  If you elivate a republican to statewide office, you are essentially nominating the GOP's next senate/gubernatorial candidate.

    I feel my most important vote was for Hedrick, mostly because I feel this race is going to be very tight, and every vote counts.  Luckly, my brother and parents look like they are going to be voting for Hedrick, and my father already sent his absentee in, and it was processed on Monday!

    I'm kinda amazed at how good the ocvote website is for that kinda info.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    Steve Poisoner might disagree with you
       but most GOP candidates don't run up against the multimillion dollar sacks of money that is the Queen Meg campaign. In a normal election season, yeah, any statewide GOP officeholder would be the frontrunner for their Senate or Governor's nomination. (Steve Poizner is the CA Insurance Commissioner until the end of this year. He beat the bumbling Cruz Bustamante for that position in 2006.)

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
    [ Parent ]
    Early voting
    I have this thing about only wanting to vote on election day.  To me, early voting feels like opening your Christmas presents on Dec 19th or something.  It just takes away from the whole fun of the day.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Me too
    I love taking that brisk walk down to the polling station, seeing all the cars there, the poll standers. I like watching the lady with the ruler find my address, then cross through my name. I like the solemnity of casting the vote, the walk back that always feels at least a little hopeful, even if my candidate is bound for defeat.
    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    I try to get everyone I know to sign up for a mail in ballot, mainly because they may not want to wait in line on election day, or they won't have time come Tuesday.  I specifically remember my father, who has voted in every election since he became a citizen (moved to US from canada in the 60s) didn't vote in this years primary here in CA.  I took no chances with the general, and pretty much forced him to get a mail in ballot.  We can't take any chances, especially in the CD we are in.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
    [ Parent ]
    Oh, I think early voting is key
    for GOTV. I wish more people did it! But me personally - I like Election Day voting. There's nothing like it.
    [ Parent ]
    wa-sen voting
    I was looking at the marist poll on wa-sen and I could not find info on how many people actually voted already. According to ppp, 14% of people said they voted already and Murray leads with them 52-47. So, I think that in wa-sen people who have already voted is key.

    proud dem
    [ Parent ]
    WA is almost entirely vote-by-mail,
    so I'm not sure that the traditional early voting distinctions apply. This can also reduce any enthusiasm gap that might exist, as folks don't need to expend all that much effort to cast their ballots.
    [ Parent ]
    I wonder if that is why
    The robopolls all seem to say a bigger enthusiasm gap exists in Washington than other blue states. Asking people if they are voting on election day to find a LV model when they have already voted well in advance of it. Perhaps would explain why Elway and others are finding bigger margins.
    [ Parent ]
    Voted several weeks ago!
    for overseas voters, RI first sends out a limited ballot and blank ballot very soon after the primary. the limited ballot only has national and statewide races, the blank ballot is indeed blank (you're supposed to fill in the local races you want to vote in as well as the candidate you want to vote for, but it also has straight party options which I made use of). I received my legit ballot a few days ago, but my limited ballot and blank ballot will be counted unless I send in my legit ballot (which I won't! not changing any of my votes), in which case that will be counted.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Ahh, darn, you voted straight ticket!
    I would have told you to vote for Linc Chafee.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    I only voted straight ticket for the blank ballot
    which is local races only. For the limited ballot (state + federal races) I voted Chafee for governor and Dem for everything else.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Oh, I see.
    That's kinda an interesting way to design absentee ballots, though I guess it does allow them to send stuff out more easily.  However, the blank ballot would lead to more undervotes in the far-downballot races, and depend more on turnout and name rec.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    The blank ballot is
    only good for high info or straight party voters. Other voters are better off waiting for the real absentee ballot, provided they can make sure it arrives on time.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    CA-Sen: New Fiorina ad targets moderates
    She'll
    oppose her party when its wrong? Right.... Seen Collins and Snowe oppose their party when they were "wrong" recently? (Hint: Collins and DADT)

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    Oppose her party when its wrong
    But, of course, it's never wrong.
    [ Parent ]
    NY-AG
    Most of NY's statewide races are now uninteresting but Siena also tested the one competitive race: NY-AG. Schneiderman is up 44% to 37%.

    DiNapoli leads 49-32 in the Comptroller race.

    Has there been any poll with Donovan within the MoE or leading over Schneiderman?  

    There has not
    the smallest margin was a poll showing Schneiderman up 4.
    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov: New PPIC poll will show Brown up 8
    Just waiting for a link.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    PPIC had Whitman by 1 in their last poll.

    [ Parent ]
    AK-Sen: New Miller ad hits Murkowski, utlizes Jim DeMint
    Just as planned.
    lol

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    WV-Sen: Raese up 7 at 50%
    As Nate Silver tweeted about Rasmussen today......
    Rasmussen polls definitely aren't converging to the mean this year. They're not being shy about predicting huge year for GOP.

    Both Rasmussen and PPP have some polls out there that depart from the totality of polling, and it will be instructive to see how they do.  I will be paying close attention as I know many here will!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I'll let ya'll
    And 538 pay attention for me.  
    [ Parent ]
    IL-Sen: Kirk up 2
    Their personal numbers are basically the same
    Just need to boost Dem turnout. I don't care what the internals say about Obama he has to get up there for a couple of big rallies.
    [ Parent ]
    Regarding their internals on Obama......
    This is yet another data point affirming my curiosity about PPP finding EVERYONE unpopular.

    I don't believe Obama is 45-51 in IL.  I could buy it if OTHER robopollers found the same thing, and then you can argue that people in Obama's home state are afraid to admit to a live caller that they disapprove of their home-state President's performance.  It would be a questionable argument, but at least you could make it.  But Rasmussen right now has the strongest GOP bias it's ever had, and even they find Obama's job approval at 52-48 in today's IL-Sen release...and that's the worst they've ever showed for Obama in IL.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Nothing new
    Final PPP NJ 2009 poll had Obama approval at Even, the exit poll was +16.

    Final PPP VA 2009 poll had Obama approval at 11, the exit poll was 3.

     

    [ Parent ]
    -11
    -3
    [ Parent ]
    I was hoping for a Alexi lead. Obama really needs
    to do a huge rally in Chicago to get the vote out for Alexi.  
    [ Parent ]
    40-30-30 here
    Based on their final NJ numbers last year and the exit poll I've had this pegged at 44-31-25. Since IL is more Democratic (+8 to +4) I'm still quietly confident here. Especially as PPP had Christie winning by two points more than he did because that final poll had Dems turning out less than they did - D44-R36-I20 compared to D41-R31-I28.  
    [ Parent ]
    My voter model on IL is 49-32-19
    I actually have Giannoulias up by high single-digits, with Quinn up 3.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    I hope you are right

    [ Parent ]
    Next week, I plan to post final projections on every toss-up/lean race
    I probably won't tackle the gubernatorial races, but I expect to calculate U.S. Senate #s for the following: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin. My last Ohio projection showed Portman up 20, so I'd be hard-pressed to bother with that one.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    DCCC has hard hitting ad up in MA-10 on Perry's
    invovlement in strip searching teenage girls. Can I just say that this slate of GOP candidates are truly disgusting? We have a candidate who dresses up like a nazi; some guy who participated in strip searches of teenage girls; multiple candidates who have domestic abuse incidents; a guy being sued for sexual assault; and some guy who is lying about his income to avoid child support payments. I thought the GOP was supposed to be the party of morals?


    The only morals that matter to them
    are opposing abortion and gay marriage.  And whatever gets the "communist" and "socialist" labels.

    When they oppose better armor and protection for soldiers and veterans, you know that all their moral compasses are broken--not just Ben Quayle's.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    the spot has been up for a while...
    The story was big in May.  Joe Malone didn't really get any traction from it, but maybe Keating will have better luck.  Seems like Perry is used to explaining it away:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
    [ Parent ]
    I am having a hard time understanding Perry's
    "explaining" this issue away. Hopefully, this issue will have more of an impact with the general public than the GOP primary voters.  
    [ Parent ]
    I have to admit,
    I admire their willpower at not getting caught in the men's bathroom anywhere. I can only imagine a surge of foot tapping once the election is over.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Time for more music!


    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    Interesting thought about the psychology of some of these crazies
    from http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo... , a comment by a user named "tinsk":

    Here is the thing about Joe Miller. Just as in religion, there are people who are political proselytizers. They are continually trying to engage people (often to the point of argument) in their own personal political beliefs with the sole purpose of making converts to their side. They don't have the self control shut-off valve between their head and their mouths to know what's appropriate and what's not in any group setting.

    This behavior is driven by a blend of narcissism and paranoia (irrational fear of "the other"). Joe Miller's employment difficulties have followed him his whole adult life because he is a political and religious (Evangelical deriving from evangelist sect) proselytizer. And their is nothing worse than being locked in a work environment and having to listen to somebody who is driven to prove that your beliefs, political AND religious, are wrong and you need to cross over to their side.

    Palin is another prime example of this behavior.



    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    That said, we have to drive up Murkowski's unfavorables at this point.
    You are encouraged to speak, write, and type negatively about both Murkowski and Miller.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Morning Edition) | 103 comments

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