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SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 4:26 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: I thought Joe Miller (last seen praising the COMMUNISTS!!1! in East Germany for their wall-building skills) wasn't going to talk about his personal life anymore (i.e. personal stuff like his on-the-job politicking while working for the borough of Fairbanks)? Well, now he is, and he's openly admitted on CNN that he was disciplined by the borough for an ethical violation. "John, I'll admit I'm a man of many flaws," he said. Apparently one of those flaws was using his various co-workers' computers while they were away for lunch to rig an online poll intended to displace Randy Ruedrich as state GOP chair, then wiping out their caches to cover his tracks, then getting caught when the wiped caches were discovered. Miller said he was reprimanded and docked pay as a result. However he maintains the incident had nothing to do with his departure from the office a year and a half later (which others maintain was imminently before he was about to be fired). So... a guy is possibly about to go from not being able to hack it as a contract attorney for a city of about 25,000, to a Senator, in the space of about a year? Geez, only in America.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon's no slouch either on the self-funding front: she loaned herself $20 million last quarter, bringing her all-cycle total to $41.5 million. (No word, of course, on how much of that $20 million actually has been or will be spent.) Meg Whitman was heard sniffing disdainfully and saying McMahon should call once she reaches the eight digits.

• DE-Sen: Sometimes, it's best to keep your mouth shut and let everyone assume you're a fool, rather than open your mouth and categorically prove it. The highlight of last night's debate:

Republican Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell of Delaware on Tuesday questioned whether the Constitution calls for a separation of church and state, appearing to disagree or not know that the First Amendment bars the government from establishing religion....

"The First Amendment establishes the separation, the fact that the federal government shall not establish religion," Coons said.

"The First Amendment does?" O'Donnell interrupted. "You're telling me that the separation of church and state is found in the First Amendment?"

• KY-Sen: With Aqua Buddha suddenly back dominating coverage of this race, no one's really stopped to ask Aqua Buddha lady what she thinks of all this. She thinks that Jack Conway's ad's tone is over-the-top, but agrees with the fundamentals, that it's an accurate reflection of Rand Paul's past views and that he should acknowledge that he's just changed his religious views since then (instead of playing the victim).

• MA-Sen: Wait, the 2010 election hasn't happened yet? Still not too early to talk about 2012. Rep. Mike Capuano, runner-up in the Dem primary in the special election and considered the likeliest opponent against Scott Brown in two years, is openly "mulling" the race, although his official line is "Talk to me in December."

• NV-Sen: We finally have some confirmation on what we'd suspected, regarding Sharron Angle's burn rate, thanks to Salon's crack team. She may have raised $14 million, but she also spent $5.3 million on direct mail expenses last quarter in order to get that money. $920K of that went to BaseConnect and its affiliates, with $1.5 million to somebody called Patton-Kiehl, who seemed responsible for the actual printing and postage. Another $4 million went to TV ads, leaving her with the $4 million CoH she reported.

• MD-Gov: This one looks closer and closer to being wrapped up in favor of Martin O'Malley. On top of today's Gonzales poll, there's also news that the RGA is scaling things back in Maryland, planning to spend less than $200K for Bob Ehrlich in the final two weeks. O'Malley may also benefit from an across-the-aisle endorsement (although it's from a figure who's committed his fair share of apostasies): ex-Rep. Wayne Gilchrest gave him his backing today.

• MN-Gov: Here's one more across-the-aisle endorsement (the only kind we'd bother reporting on, at this stage in the game). Tom Horner, the Independence Party candidate in Minnesota, got an endorsement from Mike Ciresi, a wealthy attorney who you might remember from losing the 2000 DFL Senate primary to Mark Dayton (wonder if there are any hard feelings there?) and ran again for Senate in 2008 but dropped out pre-convention. That may make things a smidge harder for Dayton, who needs Horner to draw votes mostly from the R column.

• AL-02: This has to be one of the weirdest IEs of the cycle: Blue America is spending in AL-02 of all places, and they're spending $48K against Bobby Bright. I guess they hate Blue Dogs just that much.

• FL-22: You know, if you're fighting allegations that you have links to the outlaw biker gang conveniently known as the Outlaws, probably the best way to do that is by not having bikers providing security at your rallies. Well, that's what happened at an Allen West appearance, where bikers physically drove off a Ron Klein tracker. Video is available at the link. (At least "Sympathy for the Devil" wasn't playing in the background.)

• NC-07: Here's some interesting scuttlebutt out of the 7th, where Mike McIntyre is joining the I-won't-vote-for-Pelosi brigade but where he's also saying that he's heard that she won't be running for Speaker again. (That would, of course, presume having a majority; no word on whether he's heard if she plans on running for minority leader.) Relatedly, even Mike McMahon, who's looking like a good bet to survive his red-leaning district this year, is now sounding noncommittal but at least Pelosi-skeptical.

• OR-04: Wondering who the mysterious Concerned Taxpayers of America are, who've trained most of their advertising firepower on Peter DeFazio, turning this into at least a mildly competitive race? Well, it turns out there's a grand total of two of them, each of whom has ponied up hundreds of thousands of dollars. One of them, Robert Mercer, appears to be the one with the beef against DeFazio, probably because he's a hedge fund manager and takes issue with DeFazio's leadership on taxing major hedge-fund transactions.

• VA-05: I guess demanding the moon and the sun when you make your initial offer in a negotiating session is a good strategy, but independent teabagger Jeffrey Clark may have taken that ridiculously far in his attempts to negotiate a dropout from the race and an endorsement for GOP candidate Robert Hurt. Clark offered to drop out if he got the chance to debate Hurt one-on-one, and then if subsequent polling didn't have him at 25% of the vote! Hurt has refused to appear any at any debates where Clark is included, and doesn't seem any likelier to do so now.

• WA-08: I know it's fashionable to paint Dave Reichert as not being one of the sharpest tools in the shed, but it's hard not to do so when he gives you so much material: at a forum with opponent Suzan DelBene, confessed in response to a question that he wasn't familiar with the Glass-Steagall Act. (The resurrection of Glass-Steagall was one of the main things being debated as part of the financial reform package passed this year.)

• DCCC: Here's some activity from the D-Trip that doesn't bode well: they've started going on the air in NC-11 for Heath Shuler, previously thought safe based on most of the polling we've seen so far but has been in the crosshairs of a lot of third-party advertising from folks like Americans for Job Security. (NWOTSOTB.) They're also increasing their buys in the coming weeks in neighboring districts SC-05 (John Spratt) and NC-07 (Mike McIntyre). Also, file this under a sorta-kinda triage decision: the DCCC is cutting off ads in NM-02, on behalf of Harry Teague. Chris Van Hollen says they're leaving Teague in "great position," which (shades of Steve Kagen here) is probably code for "he's personally wealthy" and it's time for him to buy his own bandaids.

• Polltopia: PPP is letting you choose an unprecedented six states to poll in, as part of their final round of polling. They must be renting some extra robots, because they're planning to poll 18 different states the week before the election, although 12 states (basically, the most obvious ones) are already locked in. Go vote!

• SSP TV:
• CA-Sen: EMILY's List is out with a TV spot featuring an opera guy singing a ditty about Carly Fiorina (and her time as Hewlett-Packard CEO)
• NV-Sen: Both the DSCC and NRSC are out with ads; the DSCC says that while you're angry, don't take it out by voting for Sharron Angle, while the GOP says Harry Reid lives in a fancy hotel and parties with supermodels
• WA-Sen: One of the Dems' few big-money behind-the-scenes groups, Commonsense Ten, looks at Dino Rossi's cozy connections
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin's new ad just flat out says "John Raese uses people"
• CA-Gov: Too bad this is only a Jerry Brown web ad, because it's one of the most effective ones we've seen this cycle: it ties Meg Whitman to unpopular Arnold Schwarzenegger, matching them quote for quote (UPDATE: Good news, everybody! The ad is going to be running on television, despite its one-minute length! It's that good.)
• TX-Gov: Bill White's new ad hits Rick Perry on his rental mansion
• SC-02: Joe "Yewwwwww Laaaaaah!" Wilson talks about dodging mortar fire in his newest ad (mortar fire that apparently landed on the other end of the airport while on what Rob Miller has been calling a Congressional junket, but that's OK)
• TX-17: Here's a sign that Chet Edwards has done something to show that he's stemmed the bleeding (or at least that he called in some serious favors), as the DCCC's back on the air here with an effective ad about bailout funds for Bill Flores' oil company

• Original recipe Rasmussen:
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 42%, Rand Paul (R) 47%
• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero (D) 34%, Rick Snyder (R) 54%
• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 37%, Brian Sandoval (R) 56%

• Extra crispy Rasmussen (aka Fox/Pulse):
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (R) 43%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%
• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 40 45%, Dan Maes (R) 10%, Tom Tancredo (C) 45 40%
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 46%
• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 49%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 49%
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 45%, John Raese (R) 48%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Afternoon Edition) | 374 comments
Actually Hick leads by five nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
The CO-Gov Extra Crispy Rasmussen Nos. for Hick and Tanc
Those must be reversed immediately or I shall pay the $600 for a CO-Gov poll, receive the same result and wonder forever why I ever doubted the power of the force in Scotty.
Don't like that Tancredo is getting closer in CO
but I do like that Maes looks like he may fall under the 10% mark, which will make the Colorado GOP a "minor party" on the CO ballot for the next few years.

http://www.coloradopols.com/sh...

Also, if Blue America's attack on Bobby Bright is a clear attack on him from liberals, that might end up helping him in his reelection battle. Now if Nancy Pelosi were to come out and say some mean things about him, that might just put him over the top...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

Actually
This represents an improvement in CO-Gov from the last Ras poll, albeit slight.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
I hear this "Classified as a minor party buisness"
all the time, what what does that mean politically?  I'm not sure I'm making the connection.  If the GOP is a minor party in CO, and the Constitution party is a major party, does that mean for the next four years, the ballot order will be Choose a candidate: Democratic, Constitution, random third parties?  With the GOP shoved somewhere in the random third parties?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Well, I'm and idiot
You posted a link, and I didn't read it...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
CA-12 for college...is that SF State?
I'm from CA-14, one district south of you.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I in fact do go to state.
I was kinda pumped to go here a year ago to be in Pelosi's district, only to learn that I'm in Jackie Speier's.  Which isn't bad by any means I guess.

Funniest thing I have seen here regarding the 2010 elections is that John Dennis, the republican running against Pelosi, has some people campaigning for him on campus.  I kinda want to go up to them and tell them they are running a fools errand, and that this school isn't even in that district.  Then I stop myself, and think they actually may start campaigning where it counts, and I wouldn't want that. :p

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I am from CA-6
 So there are alot of Bay Area people on this blog. User jncca is also from CA-14. I have not seen anyone else from the north bay on swing state though.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Yeah basically this could devestate them
Maybe even lead to a split in the right-wing vote in Colorado.  
[ Parent ]
good article on the GOP's impending minor status in CO
was on dkos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/... a couple weeks ago.

Probably won't impact the top line races that much.
But at the state legislature level races, and lower down "in the weeds" at county and muni levels it could be be a BIG hurt.

1) fundraising impact, under certain circumstances. (Though there's a simple way around it, but it'll take some effort and planning and cost by GOP candidates)
2) ballot placement, as you mentioned.  

[ Parent ]
Scary To Think That Tancredo Would Probably Win....
...if he wasn't dividing at least some of the vote with Maes.  I guess I thought he was discredited among Colorado voters outside of his little red pocket in Douglas County.
[ Parent ]
At this point...
I suspect Maes is pulling more votes from Mayor Hickenlooper than from Tancredo. He's probably getting a portion of the economically right-wing, socially moderate vote in Colorado, folks who might hold their noses and vote for Hickenlooper before sending a flaming bigot to the governor's mansion.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
All These Tom Horner Endorsements Are Gonna Be BIG Trouble....
I can easily see soft Dayton supporters and Republicans not quite comfortable with Emmer shifting to this guy in one massive momentum shift that occurs in about 90% of Minnesota gubernatorial elections.  It strikes me as unlikely that Tom Horner can endure this much uninterrupted adulation from just about everybody with a bully pulpit for a sustained period between now and election day and remain at 14% in the polls.
I can
Devoted Republicans and tea-party conservatives like Emmer, while the DFL can stomach Dayton and they are so hungry for a victory they aren't going to go throw their votes away on a former Republican. This race will be 40-32-28, with Horner in third simply by nature of getting 50% or so of independents and moderate Republicans. Remember, Dayton's problem isn't so much with conservadems ironically, it's with St. Paul-Minneapolis liberals who backed MAK and whom I don't see likely as Horner supporters.  
[ Parent ]
I Hear Alot Of People Saying They'd Like To Vote For Horner....
....but since he's not viable they're gonna vote for Dayton to keep Emmer from winning.  If Horner starts appearing viable to more people, which I think can still happen with the endless barrage of kisses blown to him by every media institution in the state, all bets are off.  The best-case scenario for Dayton is zero poll releases for the rest of the campaign which might retain the illusion that Horner is still uncompetitive.
[ Parent ]
What's sad is that Horner's budget plan is AWFUL
and riddled with holes that absolutely no one is attacking.  Everyone focuses on the guy who will raise income taxes on the rich too much and the other guy who is going to bankrupt every state service.

The man simply never gets attacked, and the Star Tribune has kissed his ass since day one.  I never see a single negative story, which I spose should be blamed on the parties for never doing their research and getting something published on Horner.  The papers are getting to use Horner as their, look we're moderate and and non-biased!  Especially the Star Tribune which is dubbed the Red Star by Republican locals.

And I agree and have been saying this for a month or so now; a late Horner surge is not out of the question and I can feel it bubbling.  Dayton has run a very bland campaign and Emmer is unelectable and always has been.  Oh well, there will be DFL majorities regardless and Horner is liberal enough on the issues I care about for me to be happy with that result anyway.  He'd be fine, Dayton would be better.

[ Parent ]
A Last Minute Collapse of Dayton.....
....along with U.S. House races on the bubble could mean the DFL legislature is no sure thing either.  I haven't heard too much analysis on our vulnerability in these legislative races, but just like at the federal level, the DFL is overexposed with seats in Shoreview, Woodbury, and Fergus Falls.  My guess is they'll hold the Senate, but I don't think a DFL House is a sure thing.

As for Horner, completely agreed.  The guy is a complete snake oil peddler whose "budget" effectively amounts to a payola for all the corporate interests who he used to be a consultant for.  The man scares me only one sliver less than Emmer, yet nobody seems to notice.

[ Parent ]
The House and Senate have nearly the same margin
The Senate is a slightly easier hold due to the make-up of the districts (many pair a competitive house seat with a DFL leaning/dominating one to make the senate districts break for the DFL just enough) but the majority there relies on the same areas as the house; an over-abundance of suburban seats and a bunch of central MN seats we have no business having in the first place.  If it's a big enough wave to take out the house, the senate wouldnt be too far behind.

And in order for the GOP to retake the state house, they'd have to pick up 20 seats to tie and 21 seats for an outright majority, or every single seat the DFL captured in 2006 and 2008.  Ive got an analysis as a work in process (maybe this will be the weekend!) and while we're going to lose a number of these newer incumbents, all of them is damn near impossible.  Furthermore, the Western upper class suburbs have been trending to the DFL since at least 2004 so even with the national waves the past few cycles, the trend has been steady and candidates like Tom Emmer will only exacerbate this.  We even stand a good chance of picking up one seat here which is the one representing most of Edina.  It is the most Democratic district in the state controlled by a Republican and the incumbent won under unusual circumstances.

The US House races are also not on the bubble.  First there history and second, even if both Oberstar and Walz lose, they aren't at the top of the ballot, they aren't driving turn-out, and only Oberstar has an area with competitive state legislative seats.  And Dayton will do much better than our usual statewide candidates in both districts.

[ Parent ]
Good Analysis......
I no longer live in Minnesota so I'm not particularly tuned in on the competitiveness of the legislative races.  Keep in mind though that the legislative lines drawn in 2002 ended up being VERY competitive and are conducive to radical swings even in non-wave elections, to the Republicans' benefit in 2002 and to the DFL's benefit in both 2004 and 2006.  A 21-seat GOP gain in the House sound like a steep climb in the abstract, but I wouldn't rule it out considering the Democrats gained 13 seats in the politically neutral year of 2004.
[ Parent ]
In 2004
with it being a pretty neutral year in many senses with Kerry just barely winning by 3%, the DFL picked up 16 seats in the state house.  And of these, only about 4 were in the metro area.  I know from the analysis I'm working on that the suburbs went for Bush by a bigger margin in the suburbs (save for the Western suburbs), as did the exurban areas go way more for Bush.  So this leaves Greater MN pulling a lot of this weight so that explains that.  So we may not do too bad there.

We are going to be slaughtered in the other suburbs though I think.  The Burnsville seat, yeah right.  Woodbury, hell no.  Lino Lakes, not gonna happen. We even have the state senate that is Sherburne and Mille Lacs County because the GOP incumbent had to run as a write-in because he was convicted of throwing a Bible at his wife.

[ Parent ]
I call concern troll

on you Mark.  From simply ignoring the plain polling data consistently showing Dayton in the lead, to inflating Horner's chances despite the fact that even his OWN internal poll doesn't get him to 20% (much less the 14% he had in the last SUSA poll), to predicting some kind of electoral cataclysm that neither you or I can foresee, you've been finding ways to undermine DFL candidates this year.

I am just waiting, waiting for you to concoct a scenario in which Collin Peterson even finds a way to lose.      

For goodness sake, Horner has one single notable DFL member to endorse him, and that person has had hardly any visibility within the party since the '08 endorsement of Al Franken, much less in the general public.  The fundamental nature of third party candidates is a drop-off in support as election day approaches, not some kind of surge.  Horner's own game plan is to somehow overtake Emmer and make it a Horner vs. Dayton election--good luck--that simply won't happen.  

The people that will eventually pull the lever for Horner are going to be fiscally conservative Republicans that can't stomach Emmer and the few members of the IP base.  The DFL party base isn't going to defect in the ways we've seen with past IP candidates; Horner has no natural DFL links, and the Forum Communication endorsements of Horner deprive Emmer of valuable visibility and credibility that would normally be offered reflectively to the Republican nominee.  Besides, even if it is hard for the DFL base to get excited about Dayton, it is very easy to get excited about re-distrcting Michele Bachman.  

[ Parent ]
Welcome to Swing State
Isn't it a bit early for you to be calling out "concern trolls"?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I'll get outstatemner's back......
His comment in substance is strong on the merits and fair.

His opening is provocative for a new commenter, but under the circumstances fair.  If a regular commenter is saying we're going to lose everything everywhere, that any tea leaf that looks bad for Dems is valid no matter how weak, and all tea leaves that look good for us are false positives no matter how strong, then I don't think in that context outstatmner's comment can be called out of bounds.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Sadly
This seems to be the trend lately. I'm sure there are some "concern trolls" on here, but when it becomes a typical term on here, then it's lost it's effectiveness.

It just seems as if someone who predicts anything that is not among the consensus, they're labeled a troll. On the other hand, if someone says something positive about candidates on the other side of the aisle, they'll likely have the label thrown at them as well.

Whether we agree with Mark or not, he at least tries to provide reasons for his views.

I also tend to think those (other than JamesL, DavidNYC, Cristiunity, and jeffmd) who jump in and attempt to play moderator are doing a disservice to the site. Let the moderators determine the "concern trolls" and other types of posters who cause trouble. After all, they are the site staff.

But hey, that's just me.

[ Parent ]
I'll Take It Under Advisement.....
Anecdotal evidence involving Dayton's weak primary win and the tsunami of mainstream endorsements being lavished exclusively on Horner, along with Minnesota gubernatorial election history put you in a very precarious situation going that far to repudiate my premise.  In four of the last five Minnesota gubernatorial elections, the candidate who led in the polls on October 20 didn't win on election day.  That by itself should give you pause before questioning my motives.
[ Parent ]
My point exactly

you've culled examples from anecdotes and refused to acknowledge any of the polling data that has--consistently, mind you--shown Dayton with a lead.  

As I mentioned above, the endorsements that have been put on Horner are at Emmer's expense, not Dayton's.  There has not been one single poll that shows Horner even close to competing with Emmer for second place, and even his own internals can get him to parity with Emmer.  The IP hasn't the statewide infrastructure to capitalize on the endorsements in a manner that the DFL or Republicans could.  

Has any statewide IP candidate ended up in any place other then third since Ventura, over a decade ago?

I let my temper get the better of me, Mark, and I apologize for the concern troll comment--that was out of bounds.  But, until we start seeing data to show a tighter race, or Dayton calls somebody a "whore", or Yvonne Prettner Solon calls E85 a great energy drink, I just don't see the reason for pessimism.    

[ Parent ]
I'm partial to Grilled Rasmussen....
It's so G double O D good.

Anyway, Nate has a (mostly) negative take on the Sestak boomlet up:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

he's only saying
that we shouldn't jump the gun. He didn't say that the poll was wrong; just to see if future polls back it up.
[ Parent ]
My uncharitable side
wants to point out that Mr. Silver staked himself pretty strongly to a "there's no chance Sestak comes back" stance last week and thinks it's quite likely he's finding it a little hard to admit he's wrong.

My slightly more charitable take is that Sestak is using a different strategy than any other candidate (almost no one lets themselves take the pasting that he took over the summer unless they genuinely have no money and have problems fundraising) and Nate's model is having trouble accounting for Sestak's different strategy (which is not to say tht Sestak is going to win).

[ Parent ]
MN-Gov, it should be noted
that Dayton beat Ciresi in the 2000 Senate primary after they both spent millions apiece.  Maybe some lingering resentment?  Ciresi also terms himself a progressive moderate, but so does Klobuchar and she's a standard Democrat for the most part.
Saddest polling news of the day
has to be the Fox poll in California that shows Prop 19 losing 46-47. Normally I'd say "well, that's just Fox/Rasmussen" but their Sen/Gov numbers seem to align with everyone else.

It's been a few weeks since I've seen a poll on Prop 19, and it was up but under 50 then. If its support is negative now, I'm very worried about its chances.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

I had
I have had a feeling that it wouldn't pass.  CA couldn't even pass gay marriage last time, so I had my doubts about pot.  Too bad, as I'm in favor of it, but I see something like that passing in Alaska quicker, actually.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I think the DoJ and Gov. Schwarzenegger hurt it
No point legalizing marijuana in California after it's been, first, decriminalized throughout the state, and second, affirmed to be under federal jurisdiction anyway.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
OF COURSE it's still a federal crime no matter what, and I don't understand...
...the apparent belief among at least some CA Prop-19 proponents that somehow this "legalizes" the drug.

All it does is decriminalize marijuana under state law, it doesn't affect federal law or its enforcement.  That was always true no matter what the Obama Administration did or didn't say about it.  Is my perception mistaken or do some people not realize that?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Your perception is correct...
But I think the typical stoners and wannabes figure they've never been busted by the DEA or FBI if they were caught;  they were busted by a local cop.  They figure that the local cop can't do anything if 19 passes.  Kind of like you figure a local Arizona cop isn't going to be busting illegal immigrants.  Oops.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, and local cops CAN AND DO enforce FEDERAL crimes, which illegal entry is NOT!......
Unauthorized physical entry into the United States is not a crime.  Yes it's illegal, but not everything "illegal" is a crime.  It's not punishable by imprisonment or fine.  Yes captured undocumented aliens are detained and effectively much the same as imprisoned, but that's pending deportation proceedings, not a trial.

That is why it's controversial to involve state and local law enforcement in immigration law enforcement, because it's more akin to involving them in enforcing federal OSHA or mine safety laws, which they DON'T do, than enforcing federal criminal laws.

But state and local law enforcement can and do assist in enforcing federal crimes, including drug crimes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Because Obama took the stance
that the federal government would no longer be enforcing federal law against medical marijuana dispensaries and this was taken as an overall policy position of not enforcing federal marijuana laws if the state has decriminalized it in some capacity.

So yes, your perception was mistaken, but not your reality because he ended up lying about the DOJ no longer busting medical marijuana growers.

[ Parent ]
Technically, Prop 19 does legalize it
under state law, but not under federal law. I have my ballot in front of me, and the headline for the ballot is "Legalizes marijuana under California but not federal law."

Pot was already essentially decriminalized a week or so when Arnold signed that bill that made an ounce (I think) of pot the equivalent of a speeding ticket (you only pay a fine).

What the practical result is will likely be determined in the courts. Either way, it'll be fun to watch.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Thing is though that gay marraige polls better then it does.
While Medical marijuana initiatives have all done better then they polled. Obviously not the same as legalization but it shows that this issue has a reverse bradley effect while gay marraige has a bradley effect. I'm still thinking it passes narrowly even more so if Brown/Boxer win which I suspect they will.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Proposition polling is very iffy
I remember how volatile Prop 8 polling was, if anything, this poll indicates it's going to be a squeaker.  I know a lot of people who normally wouldn't vote this year (mostly college kids) who are voting just for 19.  Lucky for us Dems, these are the types of people who would mostly align with us.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Might have jumped the gun there
because SUSA says Prop 19 is ahead 48-44. Woo!

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
This is fascinating...
From your SUSA link:

United States  Senator Barbara Boxer,  Democrat, nominally trails Republican incumbent Carly Fiorina among California likely voters interviewed on their home telephones, but, among voters who do not have a home telephone, and who were interviewed by SurveyUSA on their cellphone, Boxer leads 2:1.

Two to one!!!

[ Parent ]
Is there a comprehensive list
of all the changes in spending over the last couple of days for House candidates? I'm trying to make more sense of what each committee and the outside groups are up to.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
the only lists are the ones on SSP
and they dont have the time to compile big fancy lists for everything so we usually just get the blurbs.  You can look up all the info yourself as it's public information but I have no idea where to do that.  The FEC?
[ Parent ]
CA-Gov: Very good ad from Jerry Brown against Whitman
Tying her to Schwarzenegger.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Hot Damn!
I love this ad.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
That better be running
statewide.  
[ Parent ]
I'm surprised every candidate doesn't do something like this
parties use all kinds of generic talking points, it's likely that feingold and obama or any other conressional dem have said nearly the same thing.  when there's someone dragging down the ticket (obama in many states, ahnold here) it's surprising that not everyone does an ad like this.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Home run!
Whitman is Schwarzenegger 2.0, except much richer.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
And Ahnold is no slouch in the wealth category himself.
He used to commute by his private jet daily back and forth between his L.A. mansion and Sacramento, rather than live there. (Not sure if he still does.)
[ Parent ]
Very, Very good ad
bring it home Jerry !!
[ Parent ]
I saw it today during the Giants game.
I had the sound off though because it was a commercial.  Had to play it on line to see what I missed.  It's a good ad, too.
[ Parent ]
wow
that's all I can say
[ Parent ]
That's serious payback

for the Clinton dis ad.

Brown is following the Boxer rope-a-dope method for beating California Republicans.  With two weeks to go, when they've pretty much bored and nearly lost the swing voters, throw the two or three big punches.

[ Parent ]
i would again like to ask people to please vote for VT at PPP.
The post primary polls (all 2 of them)show a very close race, with either dubie or shumlin able to win.  Is Shumlin pulling ahead, or do the fundamentals of the undecideds favor dubie?  vote for VT to find out.  I'd like to point out that it's nearest competition is CT which is certain to be polled again It's already been polled by rassy, PPP, Q-pac, RAssy double down extra crispy, CNN and CT capital report.  2 pollsters have polled vt, rassy and the poll commissioned by Vermont Public Radio (who do a great weekly program called vermont this week available through itunes for anyone who'd like to know more about VT politics).  

Heck, if VT wins, maybe we could ask questions like "would you be in favor of a howard presidential candidacy in 2012 or 2016?" and approvals on Bernie.  Please consider this when voting.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

I have NO IDEA why people are voting for CT
Like, Honestly?  That's like asking to vote for the Alabama Senate race.  WE ALREADY KNOW WHO'S GOING TO WIN!!!

I voted for Vermont.  Also, feel good that it's in fourth, and could pick up before the poll is closed.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
VT
I voted for VT.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Make that four for Vermont
I would be curious to see what PPP would find in Maine & Massachusetts as well.  Connecticut does seem like a waste since they found such a large lead for Blumenthal in their last poll.  
[ Parent ]
AFSCME runs ad against Sharron Angle


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
starting to make me wonder
are any of these ever going to work?
[ Parent ]
Did anybody see the Vogue article
on Kirsten Gillibrand?  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Link
http://www.vogue.com/magazine/...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Gillibrand would be a perfect DSCC chair
She would have the fundraising abilities of Schumer and charm to presuade first tier candidates  into running, (something Mendez severely lacked)
[ Parent ]
I love Gillibrand!
I don't know why so many underestimate her. She is like Hillary Clinton in so many regards. Maybe one day a true progressive can run for president. If that day comes, it would be Gillibrand all the way!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I know why.
   Have you ever heard her speak?  I had never heard pandering so audible before listening to her.  Nevertheless, I do not mind when politicians pander to progressives out in the open.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I don't necessarily think
she's pandering now. She seems to truly and authentically believe in the causes she has taken up. Do I think she was pandering in 2006 and 2008? Probably. She had to fit the conservative nature of her upstate district.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't assume she completely means what she says and does now
or then. She's an effective politician, inasmuch as she knows how to get votes. What her core beliefs are, if anything, are less important than what she does. But I'll say right now that if she ever were to become President, I would not expect her to be nearly as liberal as she's been as Senator from New York.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
That would be a good job for her...
She hasn't really been working to raise her profile the way someone looking at a presidential run might (which has surprised me, frankly), but she's been quietly establishing herself as a Senate workhorse with a wide range of expertise and ability.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I think she was elevated into the Senate...
in part to be an attack dog against GOP female candidates.  With Clinton at State, and most other Dem female Senators unwilling or unable(from purple states) to play such a role, Gillibrand has the safe seat and ability to do it, especially given she comes from a conservative district in upstate NY.  
[ Parent ]
Not next cycle
Her seat is up again in 2012.
[ Parent ]
She's the anti-Palin.
I think she'll run for President sometime in her career and will a VP contender from 2016 on out.  
[ Parent ]
Her biggest problem...
... will be her voice. It's very high-pitched and tinny, so she sounds like a teenage girl.

It's totally superficial, but superficial characteristics matter in politics unfortunately.

If she can't speak an octave lower, if she would at least slow her speech down and temper her intonation she'd get more respect.  

[ Parent ]
I don't know
if Republicans aren't bothered by the way Palin speaks then.... wait never mind. Honestly I don't think it will be an issue for her. If it were, she wouldn't be were she is now. People take her seriously. They absolutely have too now.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I take her very seriously
Biggest Republican fail of the cycle. She really should have been a top target, because she is a HUGE threat in the future.  
[ Parent ]
Angle, Vitter also sharing actor in ad
Sharron Angle and David Vitter's ads have shared similar messaging and imagery, using some of the same lines "What else could you ever need to know about [insert Dem here]" and the picture of illegal aliens (are they Asian?), and are now sharing an actor:
Angle newest ad:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Vitter old ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

NV-Sen
Sharron Angle (R) may be about to start an international incident with Canada.
I thought
I thought international incidents with Canada were started in Colorado, not Nevada.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
CA
I thought it started with the Baldwins, who are presumably in CA.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
You know what sucks about being a Baldwin?
Nothing!
[ Parent ]
Not that I'm defending Angle
But that's a widespread zombie myth that's very popular with politicians of all stripes. Hillary Clinton, who should've known better, was quoted as saying the same thing.
[ Parent ]
Plus
Canada's done a good job of keeping people of questionable intent out of the country. I understand they denied visas to member of several radical Islamic groups over the years.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
None of the 9/11 hijackers entered through Canada
Most of them flew directly to America from the Middle East, but a few came through Thailand and Germany.

I don't know about other terrorists, but the most famous ones all entered the USA directly. Canada is clean in that regard.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
WV-Sen
The Charleston Daily Mail endorses Raese.  I don't know how that paper leans, but I understand it's the biggest one in the state.

http://www.dailymail.com/Opini...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

Conserivatve
But Raese is also a media magnet, I know he owns most of the radio stations in West Virginia and several media outlets. It wouldn't surprise if he owned a sizable share of that newspaper.  
[ Parent ]
KY-Sen - Dem internal Conway 49, Paul 47
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
curse you!!1!!!1!1
I almost beat you to it!  J/K :P

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Sorry Doug
I'll be polite and wait next time!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
too bad tere are no internals
tho this probably guarantees kentucky will be polled by PPP.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
KY
was already a guaranteed PPP poll.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Cool.
   The poll is by the same firm that found Toomey leading Sestak 46-45 in a poll from last week.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Today has been the happiest day in polling for me. PERIOD
First, I wake up at 11 am (PST), with about 20 text messages on my phone.  All from my twitter account (I linked them to SSP and PPP).  I see PPP say there is a game changer they are releasing today, and then I scroll down and see that Baker internal in MA-Gov, and think that's it, and become depressed, then I scroll down more and see that was from SSP, and the game changer is PA-Sen, with Sestak in the lead by 1.  I honestly jumped out of bed, and did a multiple fist pumps. Then I read that NC Sen was an 8 point race, and did a semi fist pump because Marshall is closing the gap.  THEN I PPP comes out with WA-Sen Numbers, and show that Murry is still in the lead grabbing 90% of Dems. FIST PUMP!  add that up with Ras having Bennet down 1, Feingold only down 2 and NOW THIS?!?!  WTF?!?!  CONWAY UP?!

Democrats are really closing this gap.  I had my doubts about OFA, but there is no more wondering, they are doing their job.  I will be ecstatic if this is more in common with 1998 than 1994.

If we hold both houses, the GOP WILL implode, no doubt about it, because the establishment and conservative factions will squabble over whose fault it was they didn't capture either house, when, lets face it, this year should have been a GOP blow out.  If the Tea Party becomes the new home of the conservative movement (Real Party, not just Tea party in name and they vote for Repubs), dems will be in power for quite a while I suspect.

Such a good day,

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
don't get your hopes up
yet. Let's wait to see if other polls back up these results.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
This has been an outstanding polling day for Democrats, and Republicans have piled on a few gaffes to start the week (Angle's tongue-tied aggravation of Hispanics, Asians, and the nation of Canada; Palin's endorsement of John Raese for the next senator from Pennsylvania; O'Donnell's constitutional vapidity; Buck's comparison of homosexuality to alcoholism; Miller's "arrest" of a blog editor; etc.).

But there's still two weeks to go.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Two more weeks for them to screw up their chances is how I see it
Seriously, these people don't know how to campaign.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
We seem to think of a week
in politics as short term. When in reality it's like a year. Anything could happen from day to day.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Perhaps the best thing they could do
is run attack ads and not make any more public comments. Thankfully, they are too stupid to do that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Your right that we should be guarded.
But it is so hard! After the summer of hell. I remain cautiously optimistic. Mostly because I'm heavily invested in OFA.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I made sure to let my cautious optimism die a month or so ago
Id much rather be as depressed as can be heading into Election Day so none of it comes as a surprise.  I'm just gonna down my list with a red marker and nod my head.
[ Parent ]
What can I say......
I'm an eternal optimist!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Man, this race is really tightening up
I thought it would, but after that "Aqua Buddha" ad, I wasn't sure. Guess it worked. I don't have to like it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I Strongly Caution You To Wait Three Days.....
....before declaring victory on the Aqua Buddha ad.  Remember how everybody thought Al Gore won the first Presidential debate in 2000 until the pundits all told them they should have been outraged about Gore's sighing while Bush was talking?  And then suddenly everybody agreed that Bush in fact won the debate?  I anticipate a similar dynamic here.  Once Kentucky voters are informed enough times that they should be outraged at Jack Conway's antics, they'll turn on him.
[ Parent ]
Both
the ad and debate was covered pretty extensively Monday. Tonight I heard nothing about either on the local news.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Could easily work the other way
The media response said it was a gaffe and even a few Dems piled on. Yet two polls now say otherwise. We shall see.
As an addendum there are an incredible number of close races for the Senate. KY, MO, PA and WI could well join CA, WA, CO, WV, NV, IL within 5 points.
[ Parent ]
I think it actually helps the attorney general...
If other Democrats from out-of-state and liberal groups are saying things like, "Oh, that ad goes too far, it's too illiberal," I think it makes Atty. Gen. Conway look tough, independent, and assertive in-state. It also jams Paul, because if he points to what Sen. McCaskill said, he paints Conway as an independent who bucks his party and does his own thing...which is exactly what Conway wants.

If it's deliberate, it might be brilliant.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I've
been saying it for a while now. All public polling has this narrowing. Ras has it at 5 and the two previous polls had it at a 2 and 3 point Paul leads.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
conway 49 paul 47
so claims cillizza and a dem internal poll.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

DCCC to make first ad buy in FL-02.
This and the DCCC entry into TX-17 this week tell me at least a couple of veteran Democrats aren't ready to walk off into the sunset without a fight.  I love it!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Well I'm grumpy.
   The DCCC spends on candidates who will not EVEN vote for Pelosi in the next Congress, and my pet candidate Bryan Lentz doesn't even get a dime.  And yes, the race in PA-07 is competitive.  I really think that voting for Pelosi is the bare minimum for getting DCCC help.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
That's all I want from the most conservative
members of the House Democrats. Vote for Pelosi and the DCCC will get behind you. But alas....

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Actually
Edwards has not outright said he will not vote Pelosi. He has been no vote curious unless I missed something.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yes, you're right.
   I'm thinking of Bobby Bright and Mike McIntyre who are both receiving DCCC support.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I can understand
why it is extremely frustrating, but as Pelosi said/indicated, the candidates should do what they need to do to win the election, even if it means running away from her. Remember that leadership votes are highly orchestrated, tightly coordinated events, where the outcome is pretty much guaranteed. And nobody, except perhaps those in his or her district, really cares if one or two people votes against someone. Unless you are James Traficant, you aren't doing it to draw attention to yourself. You are doing it to get over the finish line. Pelosi understands this as well as anyone; that's why she did what she did.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I'm So Torn On These Blue Dog Cowards At This Point......
I've generally defended them and still do to an extent.  If they think they need to trash talk Nancy Pelosi to get elected in their districts, I couldn't care less.  If they want to escape accountability on huge votes like cap and trade or even health care, I can possibly forgive it.  

But when these hypocrites who never less us forget that they're "budget hawks" (because they say so!) then turn around and support permanently extending the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy, my gut response is "what the hell good are they?"  That issue has been my breaking point on these conservadems.  I'm far from being a party-line purist on the issue lexicon myself so I can sympathize with them to an extent, but any "Democrat" who wants to borrow a trillion dollars from the Chinese to lavish $100,000-per-person tax cuts on millionaires makes me seriously question the value of fighting to keep them around.

Rant over.

[ Parent ]
My take...
I think ultimately a compromise extending the full tax cuts until 2013 before a review of the $250,000+ bracket rates will be hammered out. And I think the Blue Dogs will, ultimately, be more willing to accept that compromise than rabid Tea Party Republicans.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I Suppose I Could Live With That.....
.....but if Congress and Obama cave and give the GOP the permanent cuts they want as I'm increasingly fearful they will in the lame duck session, I'll become just as dispirited as the stereotypical "apathetic voter".
[ Parent ]
That's no compromise
That's a full cave.
[ Parent ]
It's not a permanent extension
And it would ensure the review doesn't come up as an election-year issue. The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts were deliberately engineered to trip up Democrats this year.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
It isnt any different than what George Bush got passed

[ Parent ]
Boyd and Edwards
are totally different cases.  Edwards actually has a decent record for his district.  I wouldn't waste a dime on Alan Boyd.
[ Parent ]
Really sorry to be off-topic
This is a little off-topic, (admittedly), but is anyone else constantly distracted by the pile of blood covered dead pigs on the sidebar ad? I dunno, it just bothers me having that right beside the stuff I'm trying to read, might not reflect the best on things either.  
It bothers THE HELL out of me (eom)

[ Parent ]
Doesn't
bother me much. I kid you not I am literally eating pepperoni pizza right now and I am fine. If they want to pay for an ad I'm fine with it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Disturbs me too
I never said anything because I'm a Republican and promoting vegetarianism is generally a left-of-center activity. Then again, I've seen ads from Republican campaigns in the same sidebar before, so the moderators obviously don't control what shows up there.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Since the ad helps keep SSP in business, I can live with it for 1 week
SSP runs so few ads in general (compared with other sites) it's amazing DavidNYC can cover his SSP costs.
(Note: I'm NOT complaining about not putting up with a lot of ads!)
[ Parent ]
Could be worse
At least it's not an anti-abortion ad....
[ Parent ]
HATE IT!!!!
Hate it hate it hate it!!!  I hate when pro-lifers show aborted fetus pictures and I hate when animal rights activists shove dead animal carcasses in my face.  They're disgusting looking and on a personal level, I find the tactic extremely tasteless.
[ Parent ]
Murray by 1 in McClatchy-Marist
Those Washington based polls
Look rather silly now.
[ Parent ]
I think Elway was an outlier
But this McClatchy poll is sketchy.

Its of RVs and has Independents making up 47% of the electorate.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Marist is a weird pollster
I dunno why they still insist on an RV model. And 47% independents in the electorate is...not happening.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Just to clarify
In 2006 exit polls, the breakdown was 40D/28R/32I. Adjust the numbers in this poll (32D/21R/47I) accordingly and it's not nearly as close.

Seriously, a 15% increase for independents as a proportion of the electorate? Yeah, right.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
CNN/Time, Elway and the Washington Poll
all had Murray up by 8-15%
[ Parent ]
But Murray was dominating the airwaves then
At least that's what I've heard from people in WA. Now Rossi and outside groups are hammering Murray on the air and I'm worried that Murray will go down simply because of being swamped by their money.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Not really
Rossi and others have been up in force since mid September.

Those polls were from last week.

In reality, I think this race is quite static. It comes down to turnout. Murray doesn't need great turnout to do it, but Rossi's still in it. She's leading but its close

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
If Rossi
Does not pull into a tie or small lead, Murray probably wins by a decent (5-6 pt) margin. I think pollsters are overestimating the enthusiasm gap, not accounting for the fact WA has an all mail election.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I already voted.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Agreed completely
At this point, I definitely think Fiorina has a better shot than Rossi.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Hard to say
Murray's approval/favorable ratings, even in the close polls, are quite good and Rossi's are worse.

In CA, what strikes me is that neither candidate is liked. Boxer has poor favorables, but Fiorina's are even worse. That's why you've seen Boxer's topline numbers drop a couple points, but Fiorina's stay static.

I think Fiorina's problem is overcoming her negatives. Her biggest hope is having people get so disgusted that turnout is abysmal and Fiorina drags herself across the line with an energized GOP base.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
As Nate says,
robopollsters have tended to underrate Democratic standing in Washington state:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...
[ Parent ]
Hotline On Call this morning says internal polls show Rossi gaining......
The race is tightening per internals, so GOP groups are making big ad buys for these last couple weeks.

Murray is going to need help, I hope the DSCC is there for her.  They really need to both shore her up and slam the shit out of Rossi.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
WA wants a republican in the Senate
PPP showed that WA is split with a slight advantage 47-46 in wanting a Republican in the Senate.  That has to be scary to democrats as well.
[ Parent ]
I just shit myself
out of FEAR.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
CA-Sen/Gov: Fiorina up 3, Whitman up 1
Wilson is a GOP firm
Still, this at least shows that our candidates are still in it. Carly Fiorina has exceeded my expectations by lightyears, but I have trouble seeing how she makes the "final jump"--from the 48% I think she would get today to the 50%+1 she needs to win.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Sen. Boxer at 43% from a GOP firm?
I think this one is an obvious partisan outlier.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Er
Even Rich Lowry didn't have them doing that well in actual Republican campaign internals he has seen.
[ Parent ]
The Senate number
There is a slight, very slight possibility they could be close there, but the Gov number makes me discredit it.  
[ Parent ]
Interesting
article about spending in IN-9.
http://www.courier-journal.com...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I just saw a DCCC ad
attacking Todd Young and his support of social security privatization. I don't know how long it's been running.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
They
have had different variances of SSP up for a while now.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
WSJ-NBC
Repubs by 7. 50-43.
http://online.wsj.com/article/...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
AZ-07, AZ-08: Are you kidding me, AZGOP, times two
First, in AZ-07: did race-baiting do really well in AZGOP message testing or something? Or maybe they just really respect the 'stache? Either way, I'm sure turning Grijalva into a classic bandito caricature will play great in a 55% Hispanic district.

Meanwhile, in AZ-08: Republic National Committeeman Bruce Ash is trying to raise support and donations for Jesse Kelly among Jews by attacking Giffords as someone who only "claims to be a Jewess." He then goes on to attack the religion of many modern Jews as not actually being Judaism but liberalism. He's getting pushback from the local Jewish community for a variety of reasons, including for first posting such a strong critique of Judaism and one of the most prominent Jewish politicians in Arizona on an explicitly Christian blogs. The response by Jewish community leaders (also contained in the above link) takes particular exception to the sentiment that Giffords somehow isn't Jewish enough when her family has deep roots in the Tucson Jewish community. So far, Kelly (or McClung for that matter, who's also mentioned the blog) haven't tried to separate themselves from these comments even though they're from someone as prominent as Ash. We'll see if this one has any legs.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

Talk about self-inflicted wounds
These will have legs. Rep. Giffords is popular in Arizona media, from what I've seen, and I don't see Latinos reacting well to that caricature in AZ-07.

Good catches. I expect we'll be hearing more about these major gaffes tomorrow.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Nate Silver Annoying Me Now.
   His new post on Pennsylvania reminds me why I read him less often now that he is with the NY Times.  He believes PPP is less trustworthy because they do work for liberal Daily Kos.  He also takes Rasmussen as the God's honest truth.  Hm, what does this mean?  It means Nate Silver is the newest member of The Village.

 Still waiting for him to give PPP credit where credit is due on West Virginia and Delaware Senate races.  They were the first to showcase unexpected poll numbers.

 And of course, Nate Silver himself found that PPP has no house effect, but Rasmussen does!

24, Male, GA-05

I don't think
anything is necessarily wrong with what he is saying. He's simply using a model that has limitations and is basing whathe says off of that. If the next week brings polls that show Sestak improving but Silver is still downplaying it, it might be a different story.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Hrmph.
   Then his wonderful model of godly maths will be telling me what I already know.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
i'd rather take the
limitations of a mathematical model, where the only flaws are the variables of the model's creator, than more qual Research which is dependent on human accounts.  A lot of people are dissing silver and i kind of wonder if it's because A he's with the times (SELL OUT!!11!!1!!!) and B he's throwing his damp towel of math over everyone's hopes of a dem comeback.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Not me.
   I disliked him before it was cool.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
The thing to remember about Nate's model is that it's slower to respond to new information than the human brain......
It's like the sensitivity tool on the Pollster.com polling graphs.  You can make it "more sensitive" which picks up fast-devleloping trends but also exaggerates statistical noise, or you can go with "less sensitive" which buries fast-developing trends and shows ONLY long-term trends.  The default is "medium" sensitivity, a compromise.

Nate's model can be roughly described as having "medium" sensitivity, I think, in responding to new information.  So of course one or two Dem internals and a PPP poll are not enough to show any real change in PA-Sen!  It's not enough information, and it's too soon.  Now Muhlenberg chimes in, and probably one or two others this week I would think, and by the weekend Nate's model probably will show some closing.  It still might not show a dead heat even if all the evidence looks that way to us, it's hard to say.  But it's just a design of Nate's model that he doesn't want it to be jittery and exaggerate noise, of which there is a LOT in election polling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Follow the money
538 and Rasmussen had some sort of partnership during the 2008 elections. Nate has always been a defender of Rasmussen's credibility--he criticizes their GOP-friendly methodology, but does not accuse them of cooking their numbers or having an agenda.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
SUSA CA
Boxer 46, Fiorina 44

Brown 47, Whitman 40

WA-07, 34 years old

TAKE THAT Wilson Firm!
 If SUSA is showing Brown ahead by 7, he is doing well. I am getting worried about Boxer though because polls show a close race.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I think
Brown is more likely to win now than Boxer. During my phonebanking last weekend, a lot of people were (Somewhat) motivated for Brown, but a few asked

"What has Boxer accomplished since 1992? Sure i'll vote for her, only because Fiorina is Palin-approved and does NOT represent my views." -- Majority of wavering Democrats who, in the same breath, had better words about Brown.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
There must be
 Some fact sheet that shows what Boxer has done. I think she has accomplished alot but it has not been covered much.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Besides presiding over
two committees. The only Senator in the Senate to do so.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
They want
to see some really major stuff, not "fish tidbits" (one voter said), and some even were annoyed about Boxer bringing up Abortion, which i have to agree is a bit annoying but then again they also don't like Fiorina and Palin either. I think (i'm no Nate Silver but..) this is the most likely result:

Brown: 51%
Whitman: 43%
Others: 6% (These "others" always get like 5-6% during election day, making my prediction really screwy)

Boxer: 49%
Fiorina: 45%
Others: 6%

Again, this is just what i feel to be right, i'm not a statistician.  

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
That sounds about right
 Boxer may be a polarizing figure who is not popular with voters. The thing is though that California is a liberal state where Fiorina and Palin are not popular. If most of the voters associate Palin with Fiorina, it means that Boxer must have succeeded by going negative and portraying Fiorina as a Palin conservative.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I'm expecting that
Sen. Boxer is likely, in my estimation, to hammer the Fiorina = Palin point more as the election approaches. If Democrats turn out, Democrats win, and there's no one Democrats hate more than Sarah Palin.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
She probably will, and I think it's the completely wrong strategy
Boxer already has the Dem vote locked-up...it's not like Fiorina keeping it close by siphoning-off 15% of Democrats. The curiousity of California politics in 2010 is that Republicans apparently don't need a lot of Dem cross-over voting to remain potent. Fiorina's competitive b/c of what looks to possibly be a double-digit edge with Independents, and I kinda doubt a Palin ad is what'll take to move them back into Boxer's favor. Honestly, hitting Fiorina for being pro-life might actually be a more affective move. I just hate to think Boxer wins by running 11-'o-clock-hour Palin ads.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I don't care how she wins, as long as she does it honestly
I think it's important not because Fiorina is peeling off a bunch of Democrats, but because voters aren't happy with either candidate and she wants to avoid a scenario in which low voter turnout swings it for one of America's 20 worst CEOs ever.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
All Palin would be bad
but I do think pointing out the connection is not simply a base strategy, at least with Independents in CA.

Independents in CA are more left leaning than, say, West Virginia - or even Wisconsin.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Very True
 I live in the liberal Bay Area and alot of students I talk to describe themselves as independents. When I ask them what their views are, they say, "I'm pretty liberal," and there is usually just a few small issues that they are moderate or conservative on. I am pretty sure most of them would support Schwarzenegger in 2006. Outside of the Bay Area though, they would be considered pretty liberal.

That's probably true with independents in most liberal and conservative areas. Indpendents in conservative areas are more conservative because they are moderate compared to their peers. Same with liberal areas.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I pretty much agree
Except I think the "other" vote for Senate will be smaller, closer to 3-4%. For some reason, Feinstein's elections usually have the other vote in that range, while Boxer's elections have it a few points smaller (maybe because Boxer is more polarizing, so few people don't want to vote for her or her main opponent?)

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Link
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

What most catches my eye...

- Finally, their cross-tabs on black/Hispanic voters look completely plausible.
- Whitman at 40% is pretty pathetic. Even the sharpest GOTV efforts probably couldn't save that.
- On the flip side...if Boxer's really under 50% with women, she's probably doomed. Same if Fiorina's really up 15% with Indies.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Supposedly
CA Dem operatives are worried about GOTV because the state party, Boxer, and Brown are not investing in GOTV and are relying solely on the unions. I could see Brown not investing in GOTV, seeing as he needed every dollar to fight of eMeg, but Boxer and the state party? If that is true, then Boxer could be fucked with Whitman, Fiorina, and the state party's combined GOTV efforts (which, for Whitman and Fiorina, were very good in the primary)  
[ Parent ]
I'd like to see a source for that, if you have one...


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I read that too.
[ Parent ]
Here's my personal hypothesis on AA voters in polls
I personally cant remember ever seeing a poll that accurately showed AA voting more than 2-3 months before the election and I think that's because people just expect to see 90-10 in every poll and dont ever account for some of them being undecided.  And then I also think AA voters are more undecided than other groups and that's why it shows up in polling.  My anecdotal evidence has been they may vote solidly one way but a lot of AA's I've met and chatted about politics with think everyone is corrupt and nobody cares about them and their interests.  This makes sense, they certainly have a long history of being screwed by the government and it was Democrats in the South doing this not too long ago so maybe there is something there as well.  They wont pledge allegiance to the Democratic Party but when it comes time to pick someone to vote for, it's clear how they'll break.

"God damn America!"  (Ha, got to use that in some relevance.)

[ Parent ]
And also
Im sure a lot of AA voters are also low-information voters who break late.
[ Parent ]
Most AA voters...
are tuned in to this election because of the recent Obama push.  Michelle has been going on AA radio programs and TV shows (quietly).  AA women vote more than men, in general, and we love Michelle more than the President. I was just on a AA women's hair blog of all places where they were talking about definitely voting because "MO and BO said they need us."

Most of us will not answer polls or will not give who we are voting for because of historical fear (my parents especially who were raised in Ms and La) but...After the Tea Party, only one in 100 AA's would vote for Republicans.  

So there is a quiet push to get AA's to the polls that does not show up to most people...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
typo sorry AAs


41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Black vote
I can tell you right now in the personal experience of this African American voter that Obama has very little to do with my vote, and the vote of family and friends.  The Tea Party is what's getting us to vote.  We see them as a direct threat to the hope of even holding or regaining a sensible government.  If Obama factors into my decision at all, it's as a protective cousin.
[ Parent ]
I agree...
the whole "take our country back" thing is just the kick for me.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
I hope you two are right. I look at polling in, for example, VA-05 and worry that...
...black voters are just not going to show up.  The black population is 25% in the district, and the latest poll, by Roanoke College, shows the "likely voters" including just 15% AAs.  When you consider that the black vote share in the district likely was much closer to census in 2008, and all demographics drop off in a midterm, the AA dropoff has to be particularly steep if that poll is right.

I don't pretend that my circles of people are representative of anything, since I'm hyperpolitical and I always vote no matter what.  If you two do the same, I hope you're in touch with people who don't, because people like you and me aren't the voters who make the difference in outcomes.  We need people voting who don't always vote anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Obama Has Your Back
An interesting phrase I'm seeing on signs going up all over roadsides in heavily black parts of Baltimore City. (I haven't seen any in white areas, even those whose residents are mostly liberals.) The signs have the Obama '08 iconography on them.

I assume the intended beneficiary of them is Martin O'Malley; it's the only competitive race to cover any of this territory. I've read and seen nothing that suggests that any of Cummings, Ruppersburger, or Sarbanes is in any sort of trouble.

Has anyone seen these signs elsewhere, whether in other parts of Maryland or in other states?  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
There needs to be a study on this
Most of us will not answer polls or will not give who we are voting for because of historical fear
.

Very interesting, and tragic.  And thanks for bringing up the tea partiers, I'd hope that their craziness would motivate at least some portion of our party to get out and vote.

[ Parent ]
SC-Gov. Haley(R) 43 vs. Sheheen (D) 41
http://www.fitsnews.com/2010/1...

The last poll that this outfit did had Haley 5 points ahead.  

I don't believe that the race is actually that close YET, but I can believe it is in low single digits.  

If Sheheen wins, Does he have any input in the CD redistricting?
And is it possible he could take out DeMint when he comes up for re election in 6 years?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Jim DeMint
is going to retire in 2016... He has promised to only serve two terms.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Ha, that's a good one.
So did Collins and a bunch of others
[ Parent ]
some actually do keep their promises
like Bill Frist. We'll see if Demint does as well.
[ Parent ]
DeMint
will keep his promise I think. He's a true believer, he doesn't just talk the talk, he walks the walk. I believe Collins was planning to retire too, but she was talked into running again because her seat would of been a goner in 2008 if she retired.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
DeMint strikes me as opportunistic
Doesn't seem to care much about legislating as much as being a national celebrity. I don't think he's prepared to give that up.
[ Parent ]
Tom Coburn
left the House also I think due to a term limit pledge.
Hopefully he also made a one when he later on ran for Senate
[ Parent ]
Two Terms
I believe he's pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate, so it should be an open seat in 2016.
[ Parent ]
He almost retired this year
I remember reading that he was frustrated with the Senate and Cornyn had to coax him into running for another term. I think Coburn is out in 2016.

DeMint is a purist and probably will adhere to the term limits pledge. He has a future as a national figure in the conservative movement (sort of like what Gingrich is now), and I could see him running for President in 2016 if Obama wins re-election in 2012.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I cringe saying this a bit
But hell, Id even accept Dan Boren as a replacement if he's in the Senate.  I wont pass up a Senate seat anywhere and taking an Oklahoma seat would be quite the coup.  And if it keeps someone like Coburn out then Im all for it.  Just give him an Appropriations seat with the promise that he keeps his bad-mouthing to a minimum.
[ Parent ]
Brad Henry would
probably make a better candidate.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
He's young too, 37
If Reid can kiss his ass enough to have him be more like Bobby Bright, fine by me.  Although, actually I really hope Reid retires in 2016 a he's dead electoral weight.  Someone of his stature shouldnt be so hated by his state and it just creates an all around bad narrative.  Although was he was so disliked back in 2004?  I suppose he wasn't majority leader back then.  It's time to hang up the gloves Senator.
[ Parent ]
He's disliked
because Nevada is in worse shape than about just any other state - and because Republicans will demonize whomever is the Democratic leader.
[ Parent ]
Doubt even Boren could get elected there
I remember thinking Brad Carson had a real shot of winning against Tom Coburn back in 2004, as all the polls had the race very tight. Coburn ended up winning by double digits, and I was cured of the idea that even a highly conservative Dem could ever win a senate race in Oklahoma.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Really?
I'd actually consider Boren to be the strongest Democratic candidate in the state if he ran for the Senate.

The last Democratic Senator left office in 1994.

Guess who?

Former Governor David Boren, who is now President of the University of Oklahoma. That's Dan Boren's father. His position would be a huge asset should his son run statewide.

The Boren family has a long history in Oklahoma politics.

[ Parent ]
Dan Boren can win in eastern Oklahoma, which is still strongly Democratic on a local level
but that's not the same as winning statewide.
[ Parent ]
YES, Sheheen can veto any redistricting map eom.

[ Parent ]
I don't see how it matters for Congress......
There's going to be one VRA black district, and the state is otherwise too conservative to manufacture a 2nd purple seat that a Republican state legislature would be willing to approve.  The legislature is going to say "we're a conservative state and 3-to-1 reflects the state," and they won't back down.

But of course if you live in SC, the state legislative boundaries matter more than the Congressional ones.  There's real opportunity for Sheheen to force a map that makes the state more competitive for Democrats than it is.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
hmm if the current lines were to hold
SC-05 could become Dem leaning as McCain only won it 53-46 though I think there gaining a seat so they'll probably try to screw Spratts district up if they can.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Can the DoJ demand two black districts under the VRA?
The black population of SC is about 30% black, so couldn't the Justice Dept. argue that only one black district is unfair to black voters?

Either way, the SC GOP would use the opportunity to get rid of Spratt by either making his district too Republican or making it too black for him not to be knocked off in a primary.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
How can it not matter ..??????
If Haley wins, Spratt (assuming he wins) is screwed.  The new district 5 will be altered to be more GOP. It will be a 6-1 GOP delegation for certain.  If Sheheen wins, he can veto that, thereby demanding that Spratt be shored up (at a minimum).  Perhaps the new district could even be a 'fair-fight' district if Sheheen wins.  

Also, Miller has a real shot at beating Wilson in SC-2.  If he does, Miller's district could be made more purple.  

If Spratt and Miller BOTH won, then both would be shored up.  Don't forget the 1st district almost when D in 2008 and District 2 wasn't too far behind the 1st.

If Haley wins, the 6th (Clyburn) will be made 100% Democrat, even beyond it's current Blue state.

If there is a deadlock, then the courts will draw the lines.  That would be better than a GOP dominated decision.

This all begs the question of why anyone would really care about polling VERMONT, when it has no redistricting implications.  

[ Parent ]
If Spratt wins this year, he's probably retiring in 2012 anyway
He recently revealed he has Parkinson's, which won't lend itself to him staying in Congress for long.
[ Parent ]
He is also at the height of his power..
.. a strong reason NOT to retire.  Even if he does, there are others that could run, but they won't if the lines are drawn too GOP.
[ Parent ]
Fair enough re Spratt, but in my mind I was thinking...
...that district is gone as soon as he retires even if survives two Tuesdays from now.  I'm thinking longer term, taking into account that certain districts, if open seats or GOP-held, are virtually unwinnable for us except in anti-Republican waves like we had in 2006 and 2008.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
You have a point, but very often
when a D wins in a wave but can 'build a following of his own' they survive long term.  Gene Taylor, Chet Edwards for example.  Hopefully Heath Shuler, Travis Childers and Bobby Bright stay around long enough to be added to that list too.  
[ Parent ]
The right Democrat can win in South Alabama...


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
This is why I picked SC on PPP
Sorry Vermont, Connecticut, Maine...

This is a state thats going to gain a seat in the redistricting process and we need this, if the governor actually has a say.  We need this to protect Spratt and draw something proper in the Charleston/lowland area that can elect a Democrat with all the northern newcomers.  

Please vote for my neighbor to the South on PPP... we need confirmation from a good pollster on this.  I'm very disappointed that three New England states are winning.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

[ Parent ]
It's Crantford
I'm taking it with a heavy dose of salt, but I do think this race is tightening, and so does the DGA.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Hmm
I was chatting with my mom just now while the TV was on during the local news. Here are the ads I saw:

1) An ad from the NO on Prop 23 campaign
2) One from the Fiorina campaign moaning about job loses and partisanship.
3) One from Jerry McNerney attacking David Harmer on social security privatization. (I'm not in his district, but his and Speier's districts are in the SF Bay Area market.)
4) An eMeg ad attacking Jerry Brown for being supported by the evil teacher's union.

And I've seen a handful of Brown/Boxer ads when I'm watching Law and Order SVU/LA on Wednesday night on NBC.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Reuters/Ipsos: Hickenlooper ahead by 11
FINALLY someone other than Rasmussen weighs in! Thank you! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
What does it say about the Bennet race?
If they were off by 6 on the Hickenlooper race?
[ Parent ]
I think nothing b/c they were almost the same on CO-Sen, and I don't believe...
...you can "fix" the Rasmussen sample since making it more Hick-friendly also would give Bennet a lead that would be bigger than what PPP found.

Or maybe you can?

All I know is that Rasmussen consistently has low-balled Hickenlooper's vote share in his polling, and that's really what distinguishes Ras from others on CO-Gov.  The Tancredo and Maes vote shares are always comparable to other polls.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Ras
Ras has Hickenlooper's vote at 45, only 1 point less that this poll, he just shows more for Tank.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Good point, they have Hick doing OK, but still Scotty's often had him in the low 40s. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Tancredo only wins if Maes sinks to Chris Daggett lows
He needs the rank-and-file GOP to hold their noses and bolt his way. The thing is, I suspect most mainstream Republicans would rather not suffer through four years of Tancredo as the face of Colorado conservatism.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Sort of confirms my suspicions...
Rasmussen is finding unusually good results for Tancredo, or perhaps unusually poor results for Mayor Hickenlooper.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
It's the former
Rasmussen has Hickenlooper in the mid-40's, which is where Ipsos and many other pollsters have had him. But Rasmussen sees Dan Maes getting under 10%, while most other outfits see him getting in the teens. The high Tancredo number is a function of the low Maes number and has little to do with Hickenlooper's support. Tancredo needs to knock Maes down to 7-8% and then fire a closing salvo at Hickenlooper if he wants to pull the upset.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
About how Maes will perform...
I've got a doubt that his vote floor is all that low. If nothing else, are there not many voters who are party-line Republicans but not all that politically informed? I assume they'd just automatically vote for Maes because of the R by his name? Add to them the number of party-line GOP voters who know about Tancredo's candidacy and wouldn't be opposed to voting for him per se, but who assume that "a third party can never win", not to mention those who just plain don't like Tancredo... Maes isn't going to just collapse, even if he won't grow much either. I think 14% is more or less how he'll do in the election.
[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Rubio only up 11% in Rasmussen's poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Could this mean Crist has pulled to single-digits?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Nah, it's 43-32-20, and on top of that...
...they have Crist still getting significant numbers of black votes and splitting Dems with Meek.

I think on election day there's a very good chance Meek could finish 2nd and Crist sink to 3rd, with Rubio winning by double-digits.

Rasmussen and others have Crist's favorables and job approvals dropping amid post-Labor Day attack ads, with Charlie's favorables underwater in this one at 47-52 and job approvals still good but down at 52-47.

What I find interesting here is that this poll has Obama's job approval at 48-52, which is pretty good for Florida under current circumstances.  That bodes well for Sink, and hopefully Ras will have FL-Gov numbers tomorrow.  The polling trend has had Sink recovering and retaking a lead the past couple weeks, so hopefully that trend continues.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
and her clean sweep
of all major newspaper endorsements.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Rubio dropped
from 50 to 43, so I imagine Sink will do pretty well with the same sample.

Having said that, Scotty has also posted some Tancredo-friendly numbers in the recent past that worked out pretty well for Michael Bennet. So with Scotty, anything's possible.

[ Parent ]
Nah Crist will beat Meek easily
the problem is that Meek will hold the majority of Liberals that could otherwise put Crist over the top. Most democrats and Dem leaning independents will vote for Crist including myself.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Do you think Meek dropping out
would dramatically hurt Sink's chances?  I just want an on the ground perspective.
[ Parent ]
well i'm out of state right now
But the general consensus is that Meek has to stay in to keep AA support for Sink high. I can't say my neighborhood in Fla is very diverse but I simply don't buy the idea that black voters only turn out for black candidates. Almost all the Democrats I know back home are voting for Crist minus one liberal family that i haven't had a chance to speak to since august so they may have moved the other way but the super majority of those people are white so unfortantely I could'nt tell you whether the Meek = crucial black turnout for Sink theory has any credit at all.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Six digit Independent Expenditures from Monday and Tuesday
the big buys

Team Red

AK-SEN: $97K from Senate Conservatives Fund (we'll count it)
AK-SEN: $162K from NRSC
CO-SEN: $141K from American Crossroads
CO-SEN: $787K from NRSC
FL-SEN: $100K from Rightchange.com against Crist
IL-SEN: $185K from New Prosperity Foundation
IL-SEN: $825K from NRSC
IL-SEN: $128K from American Hospital Association
KY-SEN: $438K from NRSC
NV-SEN: $350K from NRSC
OH-SEN: $135K from Alliance for America's Future
PA-SEN: $1,738K from NRSC
WA-SEN: $221K from American Crossroads
WA-SEN: $940K from NRSC
WV-SEN: $679K from NRSC
WV-SEN: $308K from First Amendment Alliance

CA-45: $97K from
OH-12: $122K from American Hospital Association
PA-06: $106K from American Hospital Association

Team Blue

CO-SEN: $720K from AFSCME
KY-SEN: $104K from Kentucky Leadership Council
NV-SEN: $200K from Votevets.org

AZ-05: $101K from America's Families First
AZ-07: $251K from America's Families First
CO-03: $276K from Majority Action PAC
CO-07: $136K from National Association of Realtors
IN-02: $255K from National Association of Realtors
MD-01: $400K from America's Families First
MI-07: $238K from AFSCME
MI-09: $130K from America's Families First
ND-01: $264K from America's Families First
NM-01: $150K from Defenders of Wildlife
NM-02: $115K from Accountability 2010
OH-16: $343K from AFSCME
PA-03: $399K from AFSCME
VA-05: $251K from America's Families First
VA-05: $180K from Votevets.org
WI-07: $375K from America's Families First
WI-08: $290K from America's Families First

TON of buys today
NRSC spending in AK-SEN!  Hitting the panic button in PA-SEN!
[ Parent ]
btw CA-45 spending is from Humane Society

[ Parent ]
Also just off the wires
huge Crossroads GPS buys.

NV-SEN: $580K
WA-SEN: $785K
IL-SEN: $1,189K!

apparently $790K is coming for MO-SEN as well.  this race is probably tightening a bit as well, as PPP/Ras have shown, at least it's not double digits.

still waiting on the Crossroads deluge that is supposed to hit the House.  kind of wondering if some of the money is being steered back to the Senate instead... or if it's just not coming until the last week.

[ Parent ]
Are the DNC countering this?
They're the ones raising the big bucks for us in replace of the RNC.

This is all just so out of control.  And the Dems should notice that $720k buy from AFSME.  We're complicit in this as well.

[ Parent ]
Complicit in what?
Union buys aren't from anonymous donors, are they?
[ Parent ]
If they're doing what I suspect they'll do in Alaska...
Bypassing Sen. Murkowski to hit Mayor McAdams may sound like a good strategy, because Republicans really just want to keep the seat red, right? But Murkowski and McAdams have a lot of base overlap right now. Arguably McAdams would be leading, or at least running even, if Murkowski weren't mounting a write-in bid; he's popular, albeit not universally known, and Miller has made a decidedly bad impression on Alaskan voters.

Whacking McAdams, who is currently running a close third in all polls, is going to send the message that he is the dangerous candidate in the race. That legitimizes him, consolidates his base of liberal and moderate voters (practically all Democrats and a good share of independents, particularly disaffected left-libertarians in the Mike Gravel mold), and divides Republicans between the two candidates the NRSC isn't actively slamming.

All McAdams has to do to win is exploit Alaska's lack of a pro-Republican enthusiasm gap and try to avoid a scenario in which a lot of voters decide it's worth their while to write in "Lisa Murkowski" (I tend to think most forms of polling overestimate the number of voters who are willing to do this, but that's just a stupid hunch) on the ballot. Miller is digging his own grave, and I think a lot of folks who were leaning his way might just end up staying home or voting for the Libertarian because he's so awful.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
The buy was for TV
Joe Miller positive ad apparently.  I haven't seen it.
[ Parent ]
Thank God if that's true, because it's a stupid strategy......
Miller already has dug himself too deep a hole to redefine him positively with less than 2 weeks to go.

My fear would be that the NRSC attacks McAdams, and it works.  They obviously CAN'T go negative on Miller, and it would be self-defeating to attack Murkowski since it only elevates McAdams.  So I figured they would attack McAdams, and it would work.

But if they're spending to "sell" Miller, that's a huge waste of money that won't hurt McAdams at all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I bet
they do a 1-2 punch: Praise Miller (to make the tea partiers happy) and then bash McAdams. I'm pretty sure that's what's coming next.
[ Parent ]
I personally think that
Miller is about near his peak in numbers he can get at this point and McAdams is his lowest point.  Attacking McAdams and keeping him there is the best idea.  Kerry and Obama got 36% and 38% so making sure McAdams doesnt reach that (as that's a win) is key.

I guess their strategy is try to lure Murkowski Republicans back over by showing him as not being so deplorable.  (He's second worst act Angle.  O'Donnel is third would be second but I think she's just ditzy and naive.)

[ Parent ]
Granted, I'm not following the race
that closely, but Miller seems to me to be basically an unviable joke. I don't think he can win at this point. I think its going to be either Murkowski or McAdams. Murk would be a slam dunk if she could get her name on the ballot, but even so, I still think she is the favorite.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
AK-Sen Anyone know if their ads
are focusing on anti-Murkowski, and ignoring McAdams?
Hopefully those 2 Repubs drive each others negatives up, leaving an opening for him.
[ Parent ]
Apparantly pro-Miller and anti McAdams
The SCF buy is a positive Joe Miller ad. I don't know the details of the NRSC buy, but those are almost always negative ads, so I assume this will be a hit on McAdams.


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Why is anyone spending in OH-12?
Is the AHA rewarding an ally, or do they think Tiberi is in some sort of danger? He survived '06 and '08 by double digits, so I doubt he's in any real trouble...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Just got polled
by an organization called "On Target Research." Anyone have any idea who these folks are?

It was primarily about CT-Gov. After all the basic questions, the operator started reading me a bunch of statements and wanted to get my reaction to them. The first was something about Malloy capitulating to unions.

I got the feeling the call was message testing for Republicans, so I said goodbye, and hung up.

OnTarget is a notorious GOP firm
Usually does internal polling.  Some of the crazy GOP outlier releases that one has seen lately have come from them.  You should have messed with them... told them that none of the issues they brought up bothered you the slightest.
[ Parent ]
I should have!
This might be one of the reasons they show such Republican-friendly results. Democrats might disengage before all the rightwing crap is spewed.
[ Parent ]
I wish I had gotten extra tricky
and pretended to be a conservative Republican, while praising Malloy. What a missed opportunity. :(
[ Parent ]
OnMessage is a Republican pollster
if that sounds right
[ Parent ]
I like Malloy...
Dannel Malloy, should he win the election (and I'm heartened that he hasn't trailed yet), could easily make a national ticket by 2020.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
NY-Gov: Ed Rendell for Jimmy McMillan?
http://rentistoodamnhigh.org/

McMillan's site is touting an endorsement from Rendell.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

So, how do we all reconcile
this GREAT polling day with the mediocre generic ballot polls we've seen recently? Gallup, Rasmussen, even NBC today at R+7...

Do trends show up on the national level AFTER we see them play out in individual races?

Most of today's Dem-friendly results have been Senate-related. Is it that trends in Senate races are independent of the national House ballot?

What's going on here? Will we see a surge for Dems on the national ballot over the next two weeks?

The generic ballot is useful for pegging the House, not the Senate......
Yes House and Senate races move in tandem in a wave, but "in tandem" doesn't mean uniform swing.

And, this tightening can be very real but NOT mean we win all these newly-tossup races.  Indeed, we'll likely lose most of them and easily all of them.  My take as I commented earlier today elsewhere on SSP is that IF we find CO, WI, and PA all becoming tossups, there's a good chance we'll win one out of the 3...but "good" chance in my book is simply 50-50, no better.  The odds of winning 2 of the 3 are extremely slim I think.

In a wave, tossups go DISPROPORTIONATELY AGAINST the disfavored party, so we're going to have several disappointments on election night.  That still means a loss of 6-8 seats in my book, and frankly the races have converged to a point where I think IL and WV could flip and PA and CO stay with us......it's that weird an election.  But I think 6-8 is still the number of our net losses.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
The GOP lost almost every close Senate race over the past couple cycles: Burns, Stevens, Allen, Talent, Smith, Coleman, etc. So it's very possible that all these close races could break against US this year, too.

I've been simultaneously encouraged by polling in specific races yesterday and today, and discouraged by the generic ballot numbers. I have no idea where Gallup is getting its numbers. R+17 (their lower turnout model, which corresponds to the likely voter model they've used in the past) is brutal. If true through election day, it would mean huge D losses. We're talking losses way past control of the chamber.

Sure, that's not Senate-focused, but I don't see how we could both be outrageously disfavored for the House and still have a fighting chance in close Senate seats. Something's not adding up.

I'm encouraged by Tom Jensen's statements recently that he's seeing a closing of the enthusiasm gap in individual senate and gubernatorial races. But that hasn't yet played out in the generic ballot for the House.

[ Parent ]
All politics is local
It could be that people say they don't like dems in general, but the people running for those seats are people they would vote for due to their focus on local issues (rather than trying to nationalize the race like Rick Scott is trying to do.)

That's my only guess.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Traditionally, the states lag national indicators...
...in which case, it is bad for us... which may explain why things are getting better in the Senate a couple of weeks after good generic ballot numbers a few weeks ago.  If the generic ballot numbers really are getting worse, then it can filter to the states just when we don't need it.  Thank goodness for early voting!

In reality, though, the generic ballot numbers really haven't gotten any worse for the most part.  We had several nice outliers boost things a few weeks ago, but the real generic ballot has hovered around 6-7 without much change, really.

The main reason, IMO, why the senate numbers are improving is that Tea Party candidates face more exposure statewide than in house races.  If generic republicans were on the ballot in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, etc., we'd be dead in the water.

That's what Tom Jensen at PPP believes, so that's where we are right now.

[ Parent ]
My gut instinct
says that we're seeing a small widening of the generic ballot before we see Dems closing the margin again significantly.

I mean, there's no way Dems CAN'T get more enthused about voting when we're in the pitch of the battle - when Obama rallies, Clinton comes calling, Republicans continue to make remarks offensive to the Democratic rank and file, etc.

The only problem is, I can't stand waiting for it to happen. It's like watching paint dry, and yet I'm addicted to it. I wish I could head to Cabo San Lucas for 10 days, and then come back to check in on the numbers. This is definitely stressful.  

[ Parent ]
If you haven't voted in PPP's poll...
please vote for SC or VT. There's been no polling on Dubie/Shumlin and it looks like Sheheen/Haley is getting tighter.

Jensen is not doing congressional polls, so there's no reason to do Maine.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Who's flooding the poll with Maine?
Annoying.  I voted for Vermont.  I'd like to see a Democrat in the governor's chair 'cos they may actually enact single payer up there.
[ Parent ]
I voted for Maine, with good reason because...
...the Republican is a hard-right teabagger and a terrible fit for the state, but an indy is making it hard for Mitchell, who certainly has her own weaknesses, to get over the hump.

If the GOP had nominated a sane establishment garden variety conservative, a lot of us would be shrugging off ME-Gov, but LePage's pole position makes it more important to us.

I know for myself, and I think some others here, stopping teabaggers is a major priority of this election.  If we can beat the teabagger candidates in blue and purple states, it will "feel" like a win even if we lose the House.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I also voted for Maine
I think it's an important race - and one in which the polling is very confusing. I doubt a VT poll would show much else than a very close race.
[ Parent ]
I agree with you about maine, but
if maine is solidly in the lead an hour before time is up, will you and other people who voted for maine consider changing your vote?  That way maine wins anyway, and VT or SC is also included.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I'd consider that. When does voting end? (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
single payer isn't likely
but it is probably more likely than anywhere else if shumlin is elected.  if shumlin is elected, he'll have around 2/3's of each legs to work with, though i'm skeptical if a majority of the public will go along with it.  the two problems will be costs and federal law which may or may not prevent states from going their own way until 2017.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Christine O'Donnell Isn't As Dumb As She Looks
There is a legitimate or at least semi-legitimate argument that the Constitution does not protect the seperation of church and state. The phrase comes from a letter by Thomas Jefferson, while James Madison was the alleged drafter of the First Amendment and may have had a broader view of state/church relations.

The actual relevant text is, "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof . . ."

So the claim is that this is restricted to prohibiting government from funding an official church and prohibiting government from banning religions. It doesn't say that priests can't be politicians or donate to politicians or that politicians can't be religious and donate to churches. And there have been some claims that government may fund religion, as long as everyone has a choice of which religion they wish their tax dollars to go to.

Credit
That's giving her WAY too much credit, and you know that.  Every time I try to hear that she was being techincal and literal I have to laugh.  Did you see the rest of the debate?  She doesn't know the Constitution, which would kind of preclude this ridiculous "crazy as a fox" defense of her.  Give it up, already.
[ Parent ]
Yes, she acted as if she never heard of the establishment clause
Maybe she was thinking "wall," but she sure didn't act that way.
[ Parent ]
I think she IS as dumb as she looks, or more accurately SOUNDS, and here's why......
Do you really believe she KNOWS everything you just posted, thorn969?  I bet she doesn't.  I get the sense that she just hears or reads political talking points and parrots them.  So yeah there's an argument right-wingers make BEHIND the talking point she parroted, but I doubt she knows that argument.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
MO-Sen: MO Dems claim Blunt hired an illegal immigrant
They're releasing a 20-year-old letter to an INS official from Blunt asking about help accelerating an asylum application.

The Blunt campaign claims the woman helped out with a few church functions, though she told the KC Star that she worked as the Blunts' housekeeper for several months.

Make of it what you will. I doubt it'll make a big difference.

Links:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

http://www.kansascity.com/2010...

MI-Gov
While poll after poll since August has basically showed Republican Rick Snyder leading Virg Bernero by 20 points, I call BS on the most recent Ras poll.  They had Bernero, pre-debate, down only 13%, but somehow after the debate -- which EVERYONE said brought home some of Bernero's undecideds -- he's back down 20%?

Rick is most likely to win, but he topped out long ago.  It's safe to say the race is much closer than any pollster is giving it.

Based on what?
The closest poll was from a local pollster here that showed Snyder up 13 both before and after the debate. Bookending those two polls are two others showing Snyder up 20. I would be extremely surprised if Snyder won by less than 15. His campaign has been run exceptionally well, and Bernero is, politically speaking, a deeply flawed candidate running in a state that's already not happy with it's Democratic governor in an anti-Democratic year. Snyder may pick up some of the Democrats he's not currently getting, but I figure he tops out at maybe 43% on election night.
[ Parent ]
I agree with MIvotee
I doubt Snyder will get above a 10% win.  He has been at 53-54% since the primary.  Bernero's numbers seem to fluctuate more depending on the poll.  I think people who are undecided have not seen anything they like from Snyder but are waiting to hear something from Bernero to make them commit to him.  My guess is most undecideds will go for Bernero and the result will be something like 53 vs. 46 for Snyder.
[ Parent ]
Did Republicans inadvertently rally Latinos to Reid?
For nearly a year, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has been desperately trying to devise a way to energize Hispanic voters in his quest to secure a fifth term, and his GOP opponent and a GOP-linked group may have just handed him two.

Democrats and Hispanic groups said Tuesday that they believe Republicans have inadvertently delivered themselves a double whammy that could increase Latino voter turnout in Nevada, where public polls have shown Reid tied for months with his tea party-influenced challenger, Sharron Angle.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/5...

MA-04: Frank Loans campaign 200k
Barney!
My Pebbles!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
this is VERY off topic, but...
anyone else see the new pebbles commercial where they're all just nodding their head along to the beat?  i find it extremely stupid (and wonder why all cereal commercials are just cartoon critters addicted to crack... SUGAR, i mean sugar!).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I had been skeptical
Of the people who said that Massachusetts seats weren't as solid as we all think.  But the fact that Frank's internal he released today only had him at 56%, despite his large margin, seemed a bit underwhelming.

But really, he has a million on hand but still needs to loan himself $200K?  What the hell is going on?  Does he know something that we don't?

[ Parent ]
Might be psy-ops
Rep. Frank is taking the race seriously, as well he should in a climate this unsettled. But Bielat has been thumping his chest over making the race close and fundraising pretty competitively, and it's got to be a bit of a bummer to watch your opponent casually drop almost a quarter-million dollars into his campaign chest when it takes you some serious phone-banking and hand-shaking to raise that much.

It's sort of Frank saying, "Great, kid! Now don't get cocky!"

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Making Him Work
I'd imagine it's relatively easy to raise money from out-of-staters because Barney Frank is a political celebrity with his share of detractors, and the conservative media machine would love to claim his scalp, or at least make him sweat like he appears to be doing at least somewhat.

And of course it's a bit of a damned if you do, damned if you don't for Frank here. They can say he's "in panic mode" if he pulls out all the stops. But if he doesn't, he's "arrogant" or is "getting caught napping." From my point of view, well, Frank just saw what happened to Martha Coakley; if you want votes, you have to ask for them.

Democrats' numbers are pretty good in this district, certainly when contrasted with MA-10, or even MA-06, and MA-05.    

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
PA-06 Poll in Field
  A poster at Pennsylvania Progressive says he got polled by Monmouth about the Gerlach-Trivedi race.  I am going to go out on a limb (snark) a predict a tight race.

24, Male, GA-05
PA-Sen: Sestak leads by 3%!
Sestak leads 44-41 in the first installment of the Morning Call tracking poll: http://www.mcall.com/news/loca...
even if he isn't leading
this has already started the sestak resurgence narrative, which could become self-fulfilling prophecy.    

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Suck on that
Nate Silver!
[ Parent ]
2 internals
if last weeks was a DSCC internal (correct me if i'm wrong) and 1 PPP poll doesn't exactly disprove nate.  it's certainly possible that all have here are 2 polls predisposed to be favorable and an outlier.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
2 internals and 2 public polls
This new poll isn't an internal, it's a public media poll.
[ Parent ]
which poll?
at last count there's the sestak up 3 internal he released, the PPPpoll and the poll from last week showing him up.  which is the 4th?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
See comment thread topic.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
there was...
... a DSCC poll with Sestak DOWN 1% and a campaign poll with Sestak UP 3% on the same day.
[ Parent ]
I'm just joking
I just have noticed that this cycle, PPP comes up with a surprising result, and others soon follow.
[ Parent ]
remember Silver's tweet last Friday:
A very smart person in a position to know tells me I'm wrong on #PASEN and private polls genuinely show the race tightening. FWIW.
We were forewarned!
[ Parent ]
And PPP is vindicated yet again...
Amazing how fast things are happening now. We're seeing consistent but small (and arguably shrinking, except perhaps in Sen. Murray's case) leads in nonpartisan polls for Sens. Boxer and Murray, Rand Paul, Joe Miller, Rep. Blunt, and Ron Johnson, and leads for both candidates in various polls of Illinois, West Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and now Pennsylvania.

Our Senate battlegrounds are Washington (lean D retention), Wisconsin (lean R takeover), California (lean D retention), Missouri (lean R retention), Kentucky (lean R retention), Illinois (true tossup), Nevada (true tossup), Pennsylvania (lean R takeover), Alaska (lean R retention), West Virginia (true tossup), and Colorado (true tossup). If Democrats run the board, they lose net zero and wind up with 59 seats (trading Sens. Dorgan, Lincoln, and Bayh for potential Sens. McAdams, Conway, and Carnahan); if Republicans run the board, Democrats lose 11 seats and wind up with 48 seats.

I'm guessing Democrats walk away from this with 54 seats, losing Wisconsin and West Virginia in addition to Indiana, North Dakota, and Arkansas, but I can easily see Republicans flipping Pennsylvania, Illinois, and/or Colorado as well. Then again, I can envision Democratic upsets in Alaska and/or Kentucky, too.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Almost as important as the the Sestak lead....
... is I have a tracking poll to obsess over :)

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Sample went for McCain 49-43 in 2008
http://www.mcall.com/media/acr...

No arguing that their sample is to Democratic.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
This is great news...
It's weird because I was reading RedState today, and the users there were automatically associating PPP, Daily Kos, and bad results. A user from PA assured everyone Toomey was up by 9.

If Sestak can pull this off (and we have the Tracking Poll to keep some tabs on this), it will really help with PA-3, PA-16, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, PA-17.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Remember when Republican activists
absolutely loved PPP, back in the days of Cristie, McDonnell, and Hoffmania?
[ Parent ]
If Sestak wins this, it's a bigger upset than Specter
Because he's being swamped with negative ads from every source imaginable.
[ Parent ]
SestakMentum!
Mcall/Muhlenberg College Poll: Sestak up 44-41.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
i think you mean
joementum 3.0  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
These two polls
Got me to leave SSP lurkerdom and finally register. Hot damn, I really thought Joe could do it again but this feels pretty great.
[ Parent ]
as long as you're nice and thoughtful
commenting's always better than lurkerdom.  welcome to SSP, where out two sayings (that i'm making up right now) are love elections and don't be a jerk.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
CA-Gov: Willie Brown - "Jerry Brown has no field operation"
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

One of the article's Dem sources says Brown needs to be up 7 or 8 points going into election day, or "we're in serious trouble."

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Well, fortunately, he is up be 7 in SurveyUSA....
Hopefully, it is not true, otherwise Boxer may end up being in trouble.  I believe that Whitman is probably setting up a nice field operation, certainly, but I think her folk are already pretty motivated to go to the polls and are habitual voters.  I'm pretty sure that CA dems do have a pretty good history of field ops... perhaps I'm wrong about that... I don't know... anyone care to enlighten?
[ Parent ]
Seems like alarmist talk to me,
bordering on exaggeration.
[ Parent ]
CA Dem Chair John Burton's reply,
from the same article:


Dem Party chair John Burton told us in plain Burtonese: "Willie Brown is full of (poo-poo). And Garry South never liked any politician who wasn't paying him. So you've got two full of (poo-poo) guys who aren't relevant to anything in this campaign talking about it."

In defending the Dems ground operation, Burton said "We've already made 1 million calls and have about 80 headquarters and thousands of volunteers. But Willie Brown wouldn't know that because he's too busy patting himself on the back."

Willie Brown has been criticizing Jerry Brown on a weekly basis in his column.  It is really quite pathetic.

[ Parent ]
DemMentum!
Democrats have momentum in the Senate, will cut losses by quite a bit, House not so much.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
The Hill polls are up!
Mississippi 1
D: Travis Childers: 39%
R: Alan Nunnelee: 44%

Arizona 5
D: Harry Mitchell: 42%
R: David Schweikert: 45%

Wisconsin 8
D: Steven Kagen: 44%
R: Reid Ribble: 45%

Illinois 14
D: Bill Foster: 42%
R: Randy Hultgren: 43%

Illinois 17
D: Phil Hare: 38%
R: Bob Schilling: 45%

Pennsylvania 8
D: Patrick J. Murphy: 46%
R: Michael G. Fitzpatrick: 43%

Pennsylvania 10
D: Christopher Carney: 41%
R: Thomas A. Marino: 41%

New Hampshire 1
D: Carol Shea-Porter: 42%
R: Frank Guinta: 47%

New York 19
D: John Hall: 43%
R: Nan Hayworth: 43%

New York 24
D: Michael Arcuri: 47%
R: Richard Hanna: 37%

http://thehill.com/house-polls...

not quite Armageddon

Illinois looks bad though

[ Parent ]
Thoughts...
MS-01: Sounds about right
AZ-05: Ouch.
WI-08: I knew this race would be a tossup ever since Walker and Johnson were dominating in the polls
IL-14: Not bad, probably in better shape than Debbie Halvorson.
IL-17: OUCH!, probably in the same condition like Debbie Halvorson.
PA-08: WTF?! I thought the Philly suburbs were gonna crash n' burn, maybe Sestak is really gonna win this thing..
PA-10: Looks right, but i think Carney will win.
NH-01: Not bad really, but they didn't poll NH-2?!
NY-19: I like Hall, but sadly this race is a pure tossup.
NY-24: WTF?! Arcuri is a D-bag who should be losing to a guy he faced 2 years back.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
Compared to FiveThirtyEight predictions
the only one The Hill polls have in worse shape is IL-17.  PA-08, NY-24, PA-10, NY-19, and WI-08, these polls have in significantly better shape.  MS-01, AZ-05, NH-01 are about the same.
[ Parent ]
I have to think polling IL-17 is a little difficult given the crazy
shape of it but other then that these aren't good not terrible though we could probably win 7-9 of these.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
The only things that stand out to me are...
Kagen is still in it.

Hare is really at risk.

Murphy's doing reasonably well.

Carney's hanging in there.

Arcuri's cleaning up.

[ Parent ]
Rep. Kagen is the biggest surprise
He's one of my favorite House members besides, so I'd be happy to see him eke out a win over the unlovable Ribble.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
there's never been any real evidence he was too far behind
Other than DCCC cutting reserved time in WI-08, which may be in part because outside groups have spent over $1M against Ribble.
[ Parent ]
There was a GOP internal in September
that had Kagen trailing by 20%. Was just a bizarre poll, but Dems never responded with an internal of their own so many people's impression of the race was colored by that.
[ Parent ]
I think yes, all the prognosticators have been moving him toward more vulnerable categories......
His race is actually lean R per Cook and tossup/tilt R per Rothenberg, and it wasn't in these categories a few months ago.

As a FYI, in 1998 when we shocked everyone with a net gain of 5 seats after Clinton's impeachment, the only incumbent Dem who lost was freshman Jay Johnson in WI-08.  The guy who beat him, Mark Green, held the seat for 8 years before running and failing statewide, leaving the seat open for what became a Kagan victory.  By all accounts Johnson ran a terrible campaign and didn't do the things an incumbent must do, and likely would have won with a better campaign, but it tells you something about the district that it's got a real GOP lean, not just a slight one.  So it should be no shock if Kagan goes down in this environment.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Kagan's district
is pretty similar to WI-07, so perhaps we'll also start to see tightening over there.
[ Parent ]
I think it's probably close-ish there
The Penn Schoen Berland poll from there seemed a bit like an outlier.  We Ask America, which is R-leaning and weird, saw less of a gap this week.
[ Parent ]
A DCCC ad buy for WI-07 just came through
It will probably be fought for until the end.
[ Parent ]
WI-08 is decidedly more conservative than WI-07, see my comment just above about the history. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Not really
Because of what dccyclone said about WI-8 being more conservative/republican aswell as demographically and geographically different.

20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
That could mean that tightening
is more likely in WI-07, no?
[ Parent ]
Maybe
i cant really tell myself but its certainly possible. of course trends in Both districts may make tightening more likely in WI-08 do to a more younger increasingly service based economy.

20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
Even a month ago who would have predicted Arcuri could win while Hare loses?
I'm not sure I trust anything Mark Penn's firm puts out, but still, kind of funny to see.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I'm not that surprised
People will vote against Carl Paladino in New York. And even if the Democrats can gin up base turnout in Illinois, most of their GOTV will (rightly) concentrate on Chicagoland. I can easily see Rep. Hare losing even while Seals and Rep. Foster win.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
hopefully a Cuomo/Schumer
blowout can pull some of these New York House Democrats over the finish line.  
[ Parent ]
personally
I'm predicting no NY House seat losses.
[ Parent ]
NY 29 is likely gone


WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
oh of course
I forgot about that because I haven't thought of it as competitive for so long.
[ Parent ]
Ugh, so tight.
   The House is really up in the air.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
PA-10 concerns me...
The fact that Carney isn't leading...

If Carney wins, he's got that House seat for a generation. He'll be taking Scranton & Wilkes Barre from PA-11 in redistricting.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
He's been down considerably
in some other polls, so this is actually a decent showing here.
[ Parent ]
Except for IL-17
these are better than I expected.  I thought WI-8 was gone.  Murphy takes the lead in a public poll for the first time in a while.  Shea-Porter is closer than in the last public poll.  Arcuri's lead is confirmed, and the others are tied.  But some of the results I find hard to believe.  Hare trailing with only 38%?  Kagen only one point down?
[ Parent ]
PA-08 encouraging and perhaps surprising, and yet just this morning Hotline On Call...
...reports that:

The DCCC did not spend money on behalf of Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio), Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.), Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.), Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), the filings show. Republicans believe those seven seats are all but guaranteed to fall their way.


43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
McCain campaign sponsors ads for Jesse Kelly, Ruth McClung?
This is odd. McCain and Kyl are in two ads, one for Ruth McLung and one for Jesse Kelley. You would think their campaigns would have paid for the ads. But, McCain's campaign paid for them, and he says at the end "I'm John McCain and I approve this message." And at the end they say to vote for McCain.
Here are the ads:
Kelly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
McClung:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
A clever way to use John McCain's cash
to benefit underfunded GOPers in the state.
[ Parent ]
Suprised . . .
that this strategy has not been used more often over the years.  Its a great way to leverage campaign funds -- in effect, candidates get more ads and expanded exposure without incurring added expenditures.  

I guess the strategy has some obvious limitations, including the fact that such commercials almost always have to be positive in nature.  And I suppose that in most cases, senators don't want to expose their election prospects in the event that the House candidate implodes.  (Imagine if Portman had done a joint ad with Kaptur's opponent in Ohio!!).  On the other hand, I suspect that if Schumer had used his tens of millions to do joint ads with Hall, Bishop, Owens, Murphy and even the Dem challenger in NY-29, those guys would be in better shape than they are now (not that they are in terrible shape to begin with).  

But this is clearly a smart move by McCain and (I assume) the Arizona GOP.  Credit where credit is due.      

[ Parent ]
Jesus Christ
either the GOP is chasing fools gold in Grijalva's district or they're onto something. Yes I could understand if Grijalva's boycott rhetoric turned off independents and moderates and fired up the tea party, but would Hispanics really let one of their own go down in flames.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
McCain has the money to burn
He doesn't need it this year and will probably retire in 2016. Apparently, his sources are telling him AZ-07 and AZ-08 are the two races where his support would make the most difference at this point.

But the fact that the DCCC invested in this district suggests that Grijalva's internals may not be all that rosy. It will be interesting to see if Hispanics rally to save "one of their own" as you put it, or if they too were put off by the boycott rhetoric.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't you see
more movement from the national committees, particularly the Republican one? I know the DCCC has spent in both AZ-07 and AZ-08, but not that much as far as I know.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Can anyone explain to me why Arcuri is doing so well in NY-24?
You would think he would be toast considering he's running against the same guy that almost beat him two years ago when everything was going well for the Democrats. And also since he made that idiotic flip on healthcare. I can't complain those whatever keeps the seat Democratic is fine with me.

As for the other Hill polls. Not really a lot of surprises in my opinion. I think in Mississipi 1 Childers is doing a decent job of keeping it close. But I think that seat will flip. Arizona-05 again another close one but I do think that seat will flip to. Wisconsin-08 does not look as bad as I thought It would be. Illinois-14 is a pure toss-up. Hare in Illinois 17 really has a problem. I'm growing more optamistic about some of the Pennsylvania races. Now that Sestak appears to be surging I would move both Pennsylvania-07 and Pennsylvania-08 back into toss-up range. For New Hampshire-01 I do think that seat will flip but Shea-Porters been underpolled before so anything can happen. New York-19 is another tight one. I think aside from New York -29 that's probably the GOPS next best shot at taking one of the seats in New York  

No surprise factor?
Arcuri got such a huge scare in 2008 (arguably one of that night's top surprises) that he knew to prepare from the beginning. Also why people like Bright and Teague haven't sank (though you'd expect them to) when Phil Hare and Halvorson are under.
[ Parent ]
Yup, Arcuri is one of this year's answers to Jim Gerlach. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
His vote against the health insurance reform bill
is one factor.  
[ Parent ]
WA-3: DCCC Ad
Saw my 1st TV ad from the WA-3 race tonite, a DCCC ad against Herrera. Pretty standard Democrat boilerplate: she supports tax breaks to companies shipping jobs overseas, etc.

This was Seattle media, the bulk of the district is in the Portland media market, but Thurston County (Olympia) is covered by the Seattle stations.

Democratic, excuse me
Sorry, forgot to add the -ic at the end...
[ Parent ]
Latest DCCC ad buy, today, was $455K
Really big buy.  This race must be worth the investment.
[ Parent ]
Maybe their internal polling shows something
Very little coverage of this race in the Seattle area up to now, the general thought after the primary was that the seat would flip.  
[ Parent ]
DCCC media buys filed tonight
SD-01, ND-01, WV-01, WI-07, WA-03, WA-02, VA-11, VA-05, VA-02, TX-23, TX-17, TN-04, SC-05, PA-12, PA-11, PA-10, OR-05, OH-18, OH-16, OH-06, NY-24, NY-23, NY-20, NY-19, NV-03, NM-01, NH-02, NC-11, NC-08, NC-07, MS-01, MS-04, MI-07, MI-01, MD-01, MA-10, KY-06, IN-09, IN-02, IL-17, IL-14, IL-10, IA-03, IA-02, HI-01, GA-08, GA-02, FL-25, FL-02, CO-07, CO-03, CA-20, CA-11, AZ-05, AZ-01, AR-01, AL-02

This looks like our homestretch defence.  There's good news and bad news in there.

Good news: FL-25 still on the table, big attack in IL-10, and races like VA-05, MD-01, PA-11 remain alive.  numbers in MA-10, GA-08 don't seem like panic numbers.  not feeling the need to defend MN-01, OH-13, VA-09, AZ-07 here.

Bad news: expanding into WA-02, VA-11, CO-07, NC-11, MS-04.  also expanding to FL-02, SD-01, NY-19, but I don't find those to be particularly bad news.

MI-01
Does anyone know if the RCCC or anyone else has any recent media buys up in MI-01?  Barring some surprise visit endorsement, I see Democrat Gary McDowell pulling this one out; the momentum is actually on his side unlike in a lot of other tight Democratic holds.
[ Parent ]
I did notice it was missing
It may have to do with the fact that they pulled an ad up there today because it was accused to be misleading.  I haven't seen any indicators they are dropping out of this race.
[ Parent ]
No wait, they have an active buy in MI-01
Sorry, I just missed it.

$206K

[ Parent ]
Also missed MO-04

[ Parent ]
All of those expansions are a long time coming
WA-02 and VA-11 seem more like a deterrent to serious investment from the Republicans than anything else, but those others aren't unexpected at all. In my opinion, the DCCC should started spending in all of those districts weeks ago.

Good that SD-AL, FL-02, TX-17, and NY-19 are apparently looking good enough to invest in, although again, I question why the DCCC didn't start spending there earlier.

Continuing offense in FL-25, HI-01, and IL-10 is definitely a good sign. I would suggest lack of spending in AZ-03 is a bad thing, but Hulburd is loaded and early voting has been underway in Arizona for a while now.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I noticed AZ-07, AZ-08, and NH-02
were not on that list. Any idea why?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
My guesses, one by one
AZ-07: I think the DCCC figures the whole meme about Rep. Grijalva being vulnerable is overblown, plus he has some outside groups pitching in there.

AZ-08: Rep. Giffords is one of the Democrats' best fundraisers in the House since now-Sen. Gillibrand's promotion to the upper house, and she doesn't really need DCCC cash as much as, say, Reps. Rodriguez and Herseth Sandlin. I suspect the DCCC doesn't show the race as tight as you might expect, either, but that's just a hunch.

NH-02: Again, Kuster is a pretty strong fundraiser, but I think this one is the weirdest of the bunch. My guess is the DCCC has determined ad saturation isn't going to move the needle much in a race where the Republican is already so well known, and the rest is up to the candidate. Unless their internals are showing Kuster way down and Rep. Shea-Porter doing better, which is the opposite of what most polls we've seen are showing, I don't understand why they're in NH-01 but not in NH-02. It could be a case of limited airwaves (not really an expert on that sort of thing), or maybe it's the DCCC choosing to give an incumbent a leg up even if it means ignoring an open seat (I think this is unlikely with how pragmatically the DCCC has been run this cycle).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Also,
if you are aware of this sort of thing, which districts have seen big changes in one direction or the other in the last week or so? I've read that VA-02 and VA-05 were goners, so you'd think the DCCC would stop spending there.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Big movers
Mostly the buys seem to roughly match what NRCC is spending in the district, but some extentions:

AR-01: (DCCC $416K, NRCC $233K last buy)
CA-11: (DCCC $308K, NRCC $50K last buy)
FL-25: (DCCC $306K, NRCC not spending)
IL-10: (DCCC $632K, NRCC $55K last buy)
IL-14: (DCCC $366K, NRCC $53K last buy)
IL-17: (DCCC $361K, NRCC $153K last buy)
NH-02: (DCCC $331K, NRCC $128K last buy)
OH-06: (DCCC $218K, NRCC $86K last buy)

make of them what you will.

[ Parent ]
NH-02 is on the list up there
I'm confused.  DCCC has bought in NH-02 (big $331K media buy) but not NH-01.
[ Parent ]
Okay, that makes more sense. Sorry about that.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
MI-03
Pat Miles, Democrat for Michigan's 3rd, announced another 50 Republican endorsements, yesterday, bringing the total number of Republican endorsements for him to 100.

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

This is President Jerry Ford's old district, and one of the endorsements, yesterday came from his half-brother.  This is a very reliably Republican district (probably the second most in the state), but the GOP nominated a very conservative guy and it has sent many of the districts moderate Republican in and around the city of Grand Rapids running for Miles. I'm really interested to see how close Miles comes to Amash when this all washes out.

Good, but it's still a Republican district
in very good Republican year. Miles can get good percentage, but i am almost sure that Amash will win.
[ Parent ]
My point
Which was kind of exactly my point, no?
[ Parent ]
Yes.
But in, say, 2008, Miles could even win. Sigh....
[ Parent ]
PPP finally includes Rhode Island
in its poll and it's dead last. Who knows when we'll have a competitive statewide race again. Depressing.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Too many worthy competitors))
And, besides, for most of even political junkies difference between Caprio and Chafee isn't that big. And Robitaille has next to zero chances...
[ Parent ]
I know...
but we are the definition of an underpolled state and the polling we do get is pretty crappy. And it's annoying to see us being beat by NY. Yes, we get it that Quinnipiac's outlier freaked everyone out, but do we need confirmation that Cuomo is crushing for the 57th time?

...don't mind me, I'm just bitter

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I agree
But, for example, Maine, with stark differences between gubernatorial candidates and a lot of Independents, is even more unpredictable. New York? Well, if poll would include House races (especially NY-20 and 23) - then (and only then) it would be interesting. Cuomo - absolutely not.
[ Parent ]
Fair point about Maine
but I will say that Maine is nowhere near as underpolled as RI. And as I mentioned before, RI's problem is that when it does get polled, it's by a mediocre pollster. the only "legit" pollster that polls in RI is Rasmussen--enough said!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
And again - i agree...))

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Afternoon Edition) | 374 comments

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