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SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 8:11 AM EDT


What better way to celebrate SSP's seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?

AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)
Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):

Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)
Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)
Undecided: 20 (20)
(MoE: ±4.7%)

AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)
Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)
Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)
Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.6%)

AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):

David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)
Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)
Undecided: 20 (14)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):

Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)
Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)
Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)
Undecided: 11 (16)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39
Van Tran (R): 39
Ceci Iglesias (I): 5
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5.7%)

FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kendrick Meek (D): 22
Marco Rubio (R): 39
Charlie Crist (I): 31
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.4%)

FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alex Sink (D): 45
Rick Scott (R): 38
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm'r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.

MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35
Charlie Baker (R): 42
Tim Cahill (I): 10
(MoE: ±3.5%)

MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

William Keating (D): 46
Jeffrey Perry (R): 43
Other: 5
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.9%)

MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Virg Bernero (D): 37
Rick Snyder: 50
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±2.1%)

MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)
Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)
Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)
Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)

Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)
Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)
Undecided: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.

NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove's American Crossroads plans to get involved here.

NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 59
Carl Paladino (R): 24
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3%)

OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53
Art Robinson (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.9%)

OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40
Scott Bruun: 44
(MoE: ±5.7%)

PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):

John Callahan (D): 32 (38)
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)
Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)
Undecided: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)

UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, "active voters," 10/7-13 in parens):

Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)
Undecided: 6 (13)
(MoE: ±4%)

Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?

UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

Peter Corroon (D): 27
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4%)

Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.

VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40
Rob Hurt (R): 46
Jeffrey Clark (I): 1
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.1%)

WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)
Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)
Undecided: 6 (17)
(MoE: ±5%)

Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size... Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll - he has the n, but won't say the pollster's name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken... Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 - but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll's sponsor
DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition) | 242 comments
Moore Information
Republican pollster says Rossi up one point with better favorables - everybody else, even Rasmussen, says Murray up at least three. Who to believe? Not.
Which also means
Schrader is probably up in OR-05.
[ Parent ]
But the award for worst pollster of the cycle
As in most others has to go to POS - Baker up 7 when Rasmussen has Patrick up 5. Anybody still not adding ten to the margin for these?
[ Parent ]
What I'm seeing more and more
with these Republican internals is that the Republican number (42 here) looks about right.  But somehow they seem to hide away a significant chunk of Democratic support in the undecided column.

It's amazing how often this is the case when you get a side-by-side comparison of a public poll and a Republican internal.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
That is it exactly
The undecideds are nearly all Dem leaners.
[ Parent ]
You beat me to it, I was going to comment that people need to remember THIS poll whenever POS internals...
...are released in any race.

By the way, I'm amazed how so many campaign junkies get so lost in the trees of the immediate impending election that they forget what they learned from previous elections, in this case that released internal polling should be taken with a grain of salt.  I just Googled "internal polling" and came up with all kinds of results of revealed crap polling.  One item was an Obama PA campaign worker e-mailing people in early October 2008 that Obama's internal polling showed only a 2-point lead in PA (virtually all public polls at that time had him up a ton, most by double-digits).  Another was Michelle Malkin harping on an internal showing Murtha threatened by Bill Russell, and I remember so many people here taking that seriously.  Murtha cruised to an easy win, albeit "only" 57-43 instead of his usual 2-to-1 margin.

So now here we are, and so many SSPers are getting their panties in a bunch over William Kristol(!) of all people saying "Dennis Kucinich is in trouble his Republican opponent is down only 4 in internal polling!"  And SSP user Mark is very proud of himself because he thinks this vindicates his prediction of a 93-seat Dem loss, and so many here take seriously Kristol's blog post and think yeah maybe Kucinich is in trouble even though nothing Kristol has ever written about anything in his pathetic political life has ever been worth taking seriously.

Kucinich will go ahead and win something like 62-37, and everyone will forget about this foolish episode.  And 2 years from now Erick Erickson will post on Red State that internal polling shows Jim Moran or even Nancy Pelosi herself up only 2 points on some unknown Republican, and so many here will worry because they completely forgot about the Murtha nonsense and then the Kucinich nonsense and so many other similar examples.

And it goes on like this.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
maybe people should stop picking on Mark
I like to take the diplomatic courtesy approach I learned in Model UN, you never say which country you thinking is acting a fool when giving an opinion on the matter.

Or just call everyone "your good friend"

[ Parent ]
I would take Mark
Any day of the week over "my friend" John McCain!
[ Parent ]
I was flipping through the channels
last night and caught a clip of Terry Moran interviewing him on ABC. I'm not sure what his reason for being interviewed was, but I guess it was about the Senate, because he spent a lot of time bashing Barbara Boxer and said that nobody would work with her. He also said that he was willing to be the guy that everyone knew him as--the one who would cross over to work with Democrats--but that Obama was the most partisan president he had seen in his lifetime (or maybe it was his time in Congress).

To which I say: FUCK YOU, John McCain.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Flip Flopper
As an honest question not trying to stoke any flames can anyone remember a politician who radically changed his position so much in just the last few years as McCain has? The only ones I can think of were Crist (he just left the party) or Romney (his was more on social issues).  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Heh,
I did Model UN too.

But it is quite annoying to watch CSPAN and hear "my good friend"

But clearly....a Republican internal is not a poll that you should take on face value. I mean, obviously if an internal showed the Republican leading by 18 points, then they are leading...but ... Kucinich is probably up 10-15.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I agree
Also, has William Kristol ever been right about anything?
[ Parent ]
He is cut from the same
Prediction talent cloth as Dick Morris.
[ Parent ]
There's one key difference, for me at least:
I don't want to punch Bill Kristol in his Adam's apple. It can only come down to personality, because while I don't waste my time by actively seeking out Morris on cable news, I've seen him a few times and it seems he's just as much of a Republican as Kristol is. To me at least, Kristol seems like a nice guy. Not necessarily a reasonable guy, but someone you could actually talk to and not want to scald with hot water as you were doing it. The same can't be said for Morris. He's in the same league as Coulter, Malkin, and Karl Rove, for me at least.

Now, has Morris' track record gotten any better in recent years? For a while, he was one of the ultimate contrary indicators. He was insistent that Hillary was going to the nominee, for instance, so I figured that Obama would end up running.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Morris' track record has gotten only worse, not better......
Toward the end of the 2008 election Morris had the stupidest presidential map and narrative imagineable.  It was actually to our benefit, but still stupid, as he claimed safe McCain states like Tennessee were tossups.  And he had some competitive states in the safe McCain column.  It's as if he didn't look at any polling or listen to anyone's opinion at all, he just made it all up.

Morris is, indeed, more offensive than Kristol, but no worse in his analysis of anything.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Kristol might make
predictions about races, but he's more known for talking about policy, or so it seems. (I'm not saying that's right, but he's involved more with think tanks and writing about issues than campaign-related stuff.) Morris tries to talk about issues a lot--I've seen several books written by him and his wife, Eileen McGann--but he's mostly known as a horse race guy.

I don't remember whether it was for the 2006 or 2008 elections, but he was talking about what Republicans might do to change the dynamic. It was almost as if he was advocating a war with Iran. I was astonished that nobody seem to call him out on it, but then again, I guess that's a good thing, since nobody was paying attention to him.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
MD-Gov
Not bad
He should hold on here.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
O'Malley will win by double-digits......
Ehrlich in the totality of polling has actually LOST ground over the past couple months.  He had been in the mid-40s, even occasionally in the high 40s.  Now every poll has him in the low 40s.  That's a very bad trend for him.

Ehrlich of course was the preceding Governor and so has no way to sell himself as an outsider.  This is a battle effectively of two incumbents, and voters already litigated this race and are not interested in relitigating a different result.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It'll Be Closer Than That...
I think more undecideds will ultimately break for the challenger. As for the relitigation issue, well, that was an electorate that was tired of Bush, Iraq, and Republican misrule, and we're in a much different place now. I also still sense an enthusiasm gap in the Baltimore area where Ehrlich voters are more interested in voting.

Of course, I no longer see it being enough, as it seems like there's just so little interest in voting Republican in the DC burbs that Ehrlich's just not going to be able to overcome it. An area full of government employees is not likely to be terribly receptive to tea party appeals....



36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Ehlrich can't win if he's at 42% with only two weeks to go
I suspect the poll is correct w/ the margin and O'Malley wins with around 52-47.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Geller (R) In NJ-6
Another questionable result:
sample size 300 (+/- 5.66)

Pallone (D-inc) 44
Little (R) 43

Source:

http://www.politickernj.com/ba...

I really do believe
That if Diane Gooch won the Primary, we would take this seat. As it is currently, I wouldn't bet against Pallone. Little's fundraising has been abysmal.
[ Parent ]
Off topic
Since Christie is governor - does the GOP have greater control in shaping and gerrymandering house districts in NJ?

NY-29
[ Parent ]
The Redistricting in New Jersey
 Is done by a comission and not the legislature.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
Good to know.  Pallone is a great progressive congressman and I can see the NJ GOP totally gerrymandering him out of his seat if given the chance.

NY-29
[ Parent ]
no
The bipartisan panels are chosen by the State Dem and Rep parties and the Majority and Minority Leaders in the State Senate and Assembly (equally).  Usually they tie 6-6 on all votes, and the two maps are submitted to an "independant" arbiter, chosen by the Supreme Court Chief Justice (currently Stuart Rabner (D), nominated by Corzine).  Last time #13 was Princeton's Larry Bartels, who sided with the Dem map and helped them pick up about 10 seats in the State Assembly 10 years ago.
[ Parent ]
Interesting
At least its bipartisan.  Fascinating to see what becomes of house maps after the census is tallied and seats are allocated and mapped out.

NY-29
[ Parent ]
Oh please
SurveyUSA had double digits no more than a week ago.
[ Parent ]
was there a SUSA on NJ-6?
I thought it was Monmouth that had Pallone up 12.  
[ Parent ]
Both
Monmouth use SurveyUSA to poll now.
[ Parent ]
Really?
I know Patrick Murray from Rutgers (he's now at Monmouth) and I'd never heard they had anything to do with SUSA.  Do you have a source?

http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin...

[ Parent ]
The pdf memo for every poll
"The voter list was obtained from Aristotle, Inc. and automated voice interviewing services were
provided by Survey USA in Clifton, New Jersey."
[ Parent ]
thanks!
That kind of pisses me off, because that's not how it was done when Murray was at Rutgers with Eagleton and the Star Ledger.  (Which had a pretty solid record for accuracy.) I figured they were still using those standards at Monmouth.  Disappointing.
[ Parent ]
conspiracy is right, it was discussed here with one or two SSPers...
...having done some high-quality online sleuthing to uncover that Monmouth has used SUSA this cycle.

I have no idea if they did that in the past.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
5.66 MOE? what a totally worthless poll

[ Parent ]
Florida
That's almost close enough to get a few more voters to move off of Meek and onto Crist, and, honestly, that both Crist's and Rubio's numbers start with a "3" helps that along.  A race which was 40-32 or 41-33 would not "feel" as close.
I'd need to see Rubio in the 30s in a SERIES of polls before...
...buying that.  He's in the high-30s in some polls and in the mid-40s in others.

This one is over, Rubio has won.  The NRSC has pulled out.  There's no time to change the story.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Pulse/Ras/Fox Polls
Raese 48-45
Hickenlooper 45-40-10
Buck by 1
Boxer by 4
Brown by 5
Prop 19 in California failing 47-46

http://www.foxnews.com/politic...

Two more
Blunt and Kaisch both lead by 6.
[ Parent ]
Very tempted to add +2 to +3 to the Dem column
To get a more accurate reading.  Recall Ras saying McCain was within 4 in the final week in PA and then as well all know he got blown out of the water.  

NY-29
[ Parent ]
Certainly
These Rasmussen/Pulse/FOX News polls have shown a consistent pro-Republican house effect.

Some people have criticized PPP for a Democratic house effect, but mysteriously, its results - good or bad for whichever party, and they weren't optimistic on Pennsylvania a few weeks ago - seem to be confirmed by other polls within a week of their publication.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Not so bad
California looks ok and that slipping would be the only thing that could make things worse. Colorado is just odd.
[ Parent ]
Not horrible considering the source
Throw in the bias factor, and they look pretty good.
[ Parent ]
That's probably good news for Boxer/Brown
Though, truthfully, Ipsos still holds infinitely more water with me than any Rasmussen poll. Mark Blumenthal actually has a piece up on Huffington Post mulling over whether a Fiorina surge is in the making.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
And pretty much dismisses it

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: MSNBC First Read offers a tea leaf that's good for McAdams......
Here's the blurb from this morning, boldfacing added by me:

*** Do Republicans begin targeting McAdams? Speaking of Miller in Alaska, at what point do Republicans begin directing their fire at Scott McAdams (D), to help either Miller or Lisa Murkowski (R-ite-in) win? Miller's getting close to being in free-fall if some private polling is to be believed. And while the national Republicans have to be careful not to anger Palin publicly and also come out and endorse Murkowski, about the best way they could assist may be in going after McAdams. Of course, Alaska is a cheap state and, Democrats might decide to play as well. It's going to be a wild ending in Alaska. And here's the best part: We may not know the winner for three weeks, because state law doesn't count the write-ins until it's been determined there are enough write-ins to alter the outcome. #headache

My view on a 3-way is that the trailers should first attack the leader.  Only when the leader is completely torn down should they go after each other.

I think that was Meek's and Crist's mistake in FL-Sen.  Both should have teamed up and gone exclusively after Rubio until they dragged him down, then fight each over the votes in play.  But they tried to do both at once, which only muddled the message and left them unable to break through.

It appears in AK-Sen that Miller is getting torn down, albeit in this case with McAdams letting the combination of Murkowski's attacks and Miller's own mouth and bad behavior do all the dirty work.

McAdams is very much in this as long as Miller can be dragged down enough.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

They should go for it
That would end up splitting the conservative vote and consolidating Mayor McAdams's support among Democrats and a lot of moderate and left-leaning independents.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
This has turned into the most interesting race in the country
I think you're right that McAdams is very much still in this.  You can only do so much as an advisor or handler to "fix crazy," and perhaps even more than Sharon Angle or Christine O'Donnell, Joe Miller is just flat-out flippin' crazy.

I'm not really sure how McAdams should play this.  I think he has done a good job of establishing himself as a viable alternative in this odd three-way race, and it's really unclear where the race shifts if Miller continues to implode -- especially since the level of support of write-in candidates (even if they are sitting US Senators) are so hard to predict.

Of course, I want to see McAdams win, but if Lisa Murkowski (who has had some of the best ads of any candidate in the whole country) pulls the rabbit out of the hat and keeps her seat, it would be such a beautiful F-you to Sarah Palin!

[ Parent ]
Mayor McAdams's Twitter...
The campaign was out right away with a tweet advising Miller that "in case you were unaware, the Constitution also applies to reporters".

I think he'll probably rip the Republicans on ethics in his next ad. Sen. Murkowski got her seat in a blatant act of nepotism; Miller has ethical issues crawling out of his backside. McAdams? He's the quirky small-town mayor who isn't a career politician; he just wants to stand up for everyday Alaskans. (The last politician to push this message, as you may remember, was elected to statewide office in Alaska. Her name was Sarah Palin.)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
More on AK-Sen: re handcuff incident, Miller bowled over an 8-year old child (seriously) (link)......
Here's the story interviewing an eyewitness, the boy's mother who, until this incident, was a Miller supporter:

http://alaskadispatch.com/disp...

I am increasingly convinced that either McAdams or Murkowski will win this race.  Miller will not be elected.  Murkowski would win almost for sure if her name were printed on the ballot, but since she's a write-in I'd call this one "lean Lisa."  McAdams has a real shot if he can poll better the last couple weeks.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
the Miller supporter mentioned in that article
Has had a lot going on according to her facebook page.  Miller actually called her about shoving her son.  

http://www.facebook.com/lolly....

[ Parent ]
Lol, I like how she's attained some level of celebrity
has basically no privacy settings and on one of her statuses there's some guy flirting with her. Awkward.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Pretty strong statement:
"I do not believe that [the reporter] did anything wrong," she said. "He was rude and he was aggressive but that's just what the press does. Legally he did not do anything wrong that deserved to be put in cuffs."

"The whole thing just made me sick," she said."I was a big supporter of Joe Miller, I really was. But not anymore."

I don't see how he wins this. He's bleeding support.

[ Parent ]
Im thinking AK-Sen
Will be the tie-breaker for the election prediction contest this year!

And when on earth do we get another redistricting contest?  I skipped the last one bc NY is boring to redistrict and I figured I'd get to show off my goods a few months later anyway.  I need some babka-tunities!

[ Parent ]
PPP Game-changer released: SESTAK LEADS TOOMEY 46-45!!!......
Link:

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

PPP is going to be champ or chump in a BIIIIIG way come election night, with their contrary results favoring Team Blue in several races.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Holy crapola
Hopefully they have learned their lesson from the 2008 primary.
[ Parent ]
Wow
If this poll result is corroborated - and I think PPP has been very good, but I'd like to see other polls say similar things as they have in Colorado and Florida - Democrats really do stand a fighting chance of staying in the mid-50s in the Senate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
They were the first to show CO tightening
Rasmussen followed. His latest for FOX is Buck up a point.
[ Parent ]
Important to note...
Rasmussen has consistently found extremely conservative-friendly results in Colorado relative to other ostensibly nonpartisan pollsters. I'm just glad he managed to give Buck a lead in that FOX News poll - that's what they want to hear!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Same in 2008
He always had Schaffer close and McCain doing better than others.
[ Parent ]
Not just Colorado...
Yesterday, Ralston (again) called BS on Razzy's NV-Sen poll showing Angle +3 and hitting 50%. Again, no full ballot test and screwy internals.

At this point, I'm not paying much attention to the polls any more. Now that early voting has begun, it's easier (and more accurate) to just look at the daily updates to see what's happening.

Remember, in 2008 many pollsters were missing what turned out to be big Obama wins in a number of states (like Nevada)... It was actually the early vote numbers that provided the first clue.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Hopefully, this is true...
I would really love for Sestak to win PA.  

Totally off topic but I am so happy to be here. I have been a lurker and decided to sign up because other blogs dealing with politics have comments that are usually just too ugly for words.  So hello everyone!!! I have learned so much.Thanks SSP

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
Nice to see a fellow D.C. area resident
Welcome!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Welcome

[ Parent ]
Ditto to SaoMagnifico
Welcome!

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Already been said
But welcome and it is nice to have another fellow DC area resident.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Welcome
I'm sure discussion here will remain high-quality, and that the moderators will continue to ensure that discourse remains civil.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Follow the money.
NRSC moved almost $2M from Rubio to this race late last week.  Even if it's not Sestak up one, I bet it's with striking distance.  
[ Parent ]
I think it's a true tossup. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
From Jensen's lips to . . . .
A win here would make me mucho happy.  Don't know if it's closed that much, but good to see.
[ Parent ]
And I bet the hearts of many a Dem rep
in PA just went pitter-pat!

Carney, Murphy, Lentz, Kanjo, Critz....

There are probably more (truly) contested races here there anywhere else in the country. A big, important contest higher on the ticket could do wonders for them.

Plus, PA has very limited early voting, so there's definitely still time.

[ Parent ]
Skeptical
I'm having a very hard time believing this.  I go to school in PA and have been following this race pretty closely.  There is no doubt to me that Sestak has closed the gap, but I certainly don't think he is ahead.  This is the first poll showing Sestak ahead since May, could it be the start of a trend...I suppose but I'm not hopping on the bandwagon yet.  I can tell you one thing for sure in a college town like State College, virtually no students are talking about the election and that is a problem for Sestak.
[ Parent ]
From where it was
Even down a couple points is good news with two weeks left.
[ Parent ]
game on!
I knew it'd close in the end!
[ Parent ]
It's a pretty believable voter model, too
One of my biggest criticisms with PPP polling this cycle (especially in California) is I've found a general oversampling of Democrats in their turn-out models. Here, 48D/41R/11I sounds about right. Actually, it's pretty dead-on, methinks. What's interesting in the cross-tabs is Indies appear completely undecided here (a tie), while 10% of Dems and GOP-ers are still mulling things over. So, presuming the undecideds bolted for their candidate, you'd probably have one of the closest U.S. Senate results of the night. Alas, my hunch all along has been if this race is tied-up heading into election night, Corbett probably drags Toomey across the finish line. If PPP shows Onorato competitive (tomorrow?), I might become a little weary of their #s, 'cuz I'm fully convinced Onorato is losing by double-digits.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
PA-Sen Tied
PPP is showing a tie in PA-Sen

Sestak 46(36)
Toomy 45(45)

Shows Sestak closing the enthusiasm gap to get to this marginal lead.  I'm sure this will make my Dem friends very happy, but I'll need to see another poll confirming it before I consider this anything but an outlier, but PPP for sure has been doing some great work this season.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

Yep need confirmation
But it does jibe with the Dem polling and what insiders have been saying. Sestak is truly Lazarus reborn. Again. Perhaps.
[ Parent ]
Disagree, in this case I think PPP IS the confirmation......
This PPP poll isn't a leading indicator like their CO-Sen poll was, rather it's a trailer.  I posted here late last week that MSNBC First Read twice last week said that PA-Sen was closing in Sestak's favor.  Their commentary was based on private discussions with partisan insiders on both sides.  And I took the First Read blurbs as possibly verifying the recent released Dem internals showing Sestak having closed.

So I take this PPP poll as confirmation in itself.  Yes "more data" is always needed, but I think it's very safe at this point to move this race to "tossup" status.  I certainly am, and I'm a hard-core realist who's marked this seat down as LOST for a few months.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Sure
Agree with that. But I still want to see more polling. Especially since the day that came out Rasmussen reported the gap had actually increased.
[ Parent ]
Agreed...
Remember last week when the DSCC first released their internal poll showing Sestak +3? Most everyone dismissed it as crazy talk. Then later in the week Nate Silver admitted on Twitter that a PA insider disputed his model (showing a fairly wide Toomey lead) by explaining to him the private polls showing a tie race? And now PPP comes out with this?

IMHO this IS the confirmation.

And yet again, this shows that a whole lot of public polling this cycle is crap.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Can you read anything
at all into individual House districts from this, or are they too dissimilar in their partisan composition, not to mention the fact that the candidates are different?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Probably just that they don't need to...
Worry so much about Sestak "dragging them down".

And it's too bad PPP doesn't have geographic crosstabs, b/c we could have had an even better picture of where Sestak really picked up, where he's still struggling, and possibly which House candidates have the most to gain/lose here.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Agree on geographic crosstabs, except for one problem......
The crosstabs likely would be highly unreliable.  For a state like PA you'd have at least 3 categories and possibly more.  So the margins of error for each subsample would be sky high.

The geographic turnout model would be nice, except that as a rule pollsters choose their sample in the first place based on geographic quotas.  That's typically the easiest kind of weighting to do, since there is exact data on geogrpahic vote share in every state's elections, and the geographic breakdown tends to be either constant or move slowly and consistently over time.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
yup, that's how PVI's can be handy!
Just for an extreme example, if a district is R+10 yet the top of the ticket Dem is only losing by 2 points in the district, then that probably means a total blow-out statewide.

One thing to be careful of is home-town type of factors.  If Sestak used to represent that R+10 seat, one should expect him to do better there naturally so it may not speak at all to statewide factors.

And there are also issues with PVI as the PVI measures nationwide political leanings not individual states, it is a reflection of the past two elections, and I'm pretty sure you could even end up with an R-PVI'd district that voted for Kerry and Bush.  Maybe, I'm at work so I'd need to tinker with that.

[ Parent ]
Great news....
I would be very curious to see what Ras comes out with. Toomey by 7? I do think that this race has tightened a considerable amount and will be a close race. Sestak does have the base that he can get to the polls to vote. With no early voting he still has time. I hope he has lots of GOTV operations ongoing. It is clearly going to come down to the Philly/Pitt suburbs and inner cities and how much they come out and vote.

I really do hope Sestak wins as he is a great face for the Party as well. Having he and Jim Webb speak to military issues would be excellent and hard for the GOP to attack with John McCain and Lindsey Graham leading the fight. I also wish more Dems would run ads like his. His Belle the dog ad was great in that it is not offensive, it was cute, it is funny and most importantly it gets the point across that just about everyone can relate to. It also does this in a non-controversial way.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
RAS
Whatever it is, you know it will be quick.  He probably saw thatoll and is, as we speak, conducting his poll.  Exepct results tomorrow, or Thursday at the latest.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
He was straight out with rebuttal numbers as soon as those two Dem internals came out. Toomey up 5 or so I think next time.
[ Parent ]
It's not an outlier, it's been known for some time Sestak has closed on Toomey......
MSNBC First Read repeated the point twice late last week that after talking to partisan insiders on both sides, PA-Sen has closed.  I wasn't sure if taht meant the Dem internals showing a one-point dead heat were to be trusted, rather than maybe that Sestak in reality had closed from, say, 10 down to 5 down, but I think it's safe to say now the closing is real.

PPP is not an outlier at all, just the latest of SEVERAL tea leaves.

And by the way, their CO-Sen poll that showed Bennet up one itself looked to me like an outlier at the time, until more recent polling by Rasmussen of all outfits (47-45 over the weekend and now a one-pointer in the Fox Pulse version) confirmed the tightening in Bennet's favor.  So PPP is proving prescient.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This was one of the comments
At the PPP blog in response to their WA-Sen post yesterday.

"Anonymous said...

Since you signed that contract with Daily Kos Hate America your polls are meaningless. You are Dem rim boy

October 18, 2010 7:36 PM"

I can't imagine what the response will be to this!

[ Parent ]
They released a WA-Sen poll this weekend?

[ Parent ]
A preview
Murray is winning.

[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
No, they're releasing it today. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Confirmation
FOX have Blunt up 6, PPP had him up 5. Those skeptical yesterday of the MO-Sen numbers should be very careful writing off Jensen et al for partisan reasons.
[ Parent ]
PPP is just nailing it
By far the best national pollster this cycle so far, although of course Election Day could change their reputation entirely.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
PPP has also been the leading mover
in races going AGAINST us, like WV-Sen. They caught Raese's surge early - and then captured the later shift back to Manchin before other pollsters did.
[ Parent ]
First to show Scott Brown ahead too
They seem pretty straight to me.
[ Parent ]
Any word on whether the poll was conducted independently?
I didn't know PPP surveyed Pennsylvania this weekend. If they conducted it on behalf of Rep. Sestak's campaign, I think the usual caveats apply, but if it was done independently...

Some people have quibbled with the crosstabs, arguing it undercounts independent support and overcounts Democrats...but that doesn't change the results outside of the MoE because of how evenly split independents are.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
My projection
Has been an even split on party ID so yep indies are key. I'll move it to Tilts Republican but no further until there is more info. They were very clear from the get go that Carnahan paid them to poll and I can't find anything about Sestak either at Twitter, the PPP blog (where the comments are priceless) or the released pdf.
[ Parent ]
PPP doesn't post or tweet about polls...
...that are sponsored by someone else. This is an in-house poll.
[ Parent ]
Er yes they do
Yesterday. MO-Sen.
[ Parent ]
Who's on Top of the ballot in PA?
Is it Gov/Sen/House/State House/County/Local?  Or Sen/Gov/House/State House/etc?  Anyone have a sample ballot?
[ Parent ]
Here's what the ballot looks like
in Philly (PDF).

Senate

Gov.

LG

Rep

[State Senator]

State Rep

[ Parent ]
Note that this was a primary ballot
the general election has a "straight ticket" option above everything else.

[ Parent ]
is Gov/Lt Gov
Separate on the general or a shotgun wedding?
[ Parent ]
Whoops, I should know better
In the GE G & LG are elected as a ticket.  
[ Parent ]
DSCC FINALLY jumps into NV-Sen...
With this...

I guess whoever designed this ad must have been listening to President Clinton when he says we need to address voters' anger, then channel it in the proper direction. IMHO it's not the strongest ad I've seen here, but it's also far from the worst. I guess I'd have to give it a B+ for its attempt to address that voter anger and redirect it toward Angle, but it would have been nice to see this pack more punch.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

I like this ad

[ Parent ]
It just goes to show you
that you don't have to wildly distort someone's remarks or assassinate someone's character to have a hard hitting ad. I think a lot of Democrats forget that there's a pretty wide space between an ad that flashes bin Laden's/Hussein's picture after Max Cleland's and something designed by Hallmark.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Ralston analysis offers unclear picture on early turnout......
Here's the link:

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

The bottom line appears to be that while early turnout is "normal" for a midterm, Democrats need to either do better in early voting OR stay dead-even in election-day voting in order to keep from losing ground compared to 4 years ago.  So we have every reason to stay on the edge of our seats, we don't have cause to either feel good or be depressed.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Nah, he just turned up the drama...
I looked at the raw numbers. And yes, there was some slippage yesterday...

But then again, remember that yesterday was THEIR big day. Sarah Palin was in Reno rallying the "tea party". If this is the best they can do, they're in trouble.

There certainly is room for improvement on our side, but OTOH we may very well get it. Today, Reid is doing an early vote rally at UNLV with UFC fighter Chuck Liddell and UFC President Dana White, and tomorrow they're going to UNR. And of course, Friday is "THE. BIG. DEAL!" President Obama will be here in Vegas on Friday, and I'm already hearing rumblings about trying to pump up turnout over 10,000... And of course, it's right by a "permanent" early vote site.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Before I forget to show you this,
did you happen to read this profile of Harry Reid from The New Yorker yet? I didn't. I'm probably going to wait for the print edition to arrive in the mail for me, and I'm still behind, as I usually in, in reading that magazine. But this paragraph that was quoted on Political Wire made me like him quite a bit:

"It is a mistake, though, to regard Reid as ineffectual. He is obsessive in his work habits. Everybody in Nevada politics has a story about the brusque telephone calls he makes at all hours. He'll check in as often as several times a day, for five minutes, two minutes, thirty seconds. You'll be saying something and it will dawn on you that he has hung up without saying goodbye. Once, Reid recruited a candidate to run for an important state office, and during a phone call she complained about fund-raising difficulties: click. Reid doesn't like whiners. He found another candidate."

http://www.newyorker.com/repor...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That's the Harry Reid I've come to know...
He's a work horse.

I know some here and many more at DKos hate him b/c he's not some rock star who makes love to the camera and has hordes of fans chasing his tour bus, but that's just never been Harry's style. He prefers to work behind the scenes and quietly get stuff done.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Who DOESN'T...
...want to be a Harry Reid fangirl/fanboy, is what I'm asking?

He's the Bieber of legislative officials, after all.

[ Parent ]
Read this article
and then tell me that Harry Reid isn't just a little interesting.

http://www.slate.com/id/2111392/

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Did you know...
...that Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) is a huge Batman fan, and frequently makes appearances in Batman-related media? He has appeared in "Batman and Robin" (1997), "The Dark Knight" (2008), and "Batman: the Animated Series" (early 90s)?

I'm not being sarcastic or anything. I just like trivia.

[ Parent ]
I didn't know
that until I read it, but I still think it's cool. Then again, I've thought Leahy was cool ever since Dick Cheney told him to go fuck himself. Still, he's a minister compared to Reid. Reid strangled LaToya Jackson's future husband, punched out his father in law, and had the mob put a bomb under his car.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I grew up watching the Animated Series! :D
Also, I saw him in "The Dark Night."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
If you put it that way
I really don't like Harry Reid.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Has the supposedly
extraordinary ground game of Nevada Democrats really begun? There's still two weeks until election day, which is a lot of time for things to change.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Now, it's a little clearer...
Just as I said earlier. Ralston let it out.

@RalstonFlash
Jon Ralston
My guess is Ds feared Palin would bump up early voting turnout on Monday. But didn't happen. Let's see what happens w/POTUS on Friday. #gotv
2 minutes ago via Echofon

Again, Dems have plenty of room for improvement. There's much more work to be done this week, and I can attest to that! Still, keep things in perspective. Yesterday was supposed to be a good day for R's b/c Palin was in Reno, but all it resulted in was a slight bump in R turnout. Now we just have to get more D's to vote this week, and Obama needs to work his magic to get many more D's to vote this coming weekend.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
You would know better than I would, so
has the Nevada Democrats' ground game really kicked in yet?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Ralston...
...has this info before it is posted on Clark County's website. Yet Ralston doesn't say anything about the partisan breakdown of NV-3, which I am keeping a close tab on. More so than NV-SEN actually.

I guess I'll just have to wait til the county gets in gear and puts it up.

[ Parent ]
I think Dems are outnumbering GOPers in NV-3 turnout so far.
not by a huge margin

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Poll: Republicans to win 447 house seats

When asked how that's possible, since there are only 435 House seats, a rather cantankerous John Cranston of Rasmussen said, "I'm not an idiot, I know there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives. So what! Republicans are polling so well, they have a great chance of winning districts not even yet created."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Boyd down by 12 in FL-2
Looks like a gonna
But does once again highlight the deficiencies in Republican polling.
[ Parent ]
CA-Gov: Previewing Whitman's massive GOTV operation
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

The key part is on Page 2...

"Brown is receiving help from his union allies, who have spent nearly $14 million on his behalf. The Service Employees International Union recently announced a $5 million ad campaign targeting Latinos. But some Democrats are nervous that they are seeing nothing on their side that matches Whitman's operation.

Brown has conserved his own cash for a big advertising push at the end of the campaign. "He will be arguably competitive on the air for the last four weeks, but I do not believe there is anything approaching a get-out-the-vote operation on the ground that is going to be up to the task," said longtime Democratic operative Garry South, who was the top strategist for former governor Gray Davis.

From outside appearances, South said, Whitman has built "the most extensive absentee-ballot program and get-out-the-vote program that California has ever seen in any race whatsoever."  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Can that make up a five point gap in polling?
Doubtful. Don't they usually say a couple points at best?
[ Parent ]
Well it depends on whether the gap is really 5 points......
Yes it's true there's a limit to how much of a gap GOTV can make up.  It can make up more, though, for a favored party in a wave.  But then there's not much of a wave in CA, it's not non-existent but it's definitely much smaller there.

Also, I wonder whether CA-Gov GOTV matters so much for Brown if Boxer is doing it for her own race.  After all, the CA-Gov and CA-Sen polling are so much the same that I can't imagine many Boxer-Whitman voters.  So if Barbara is doing what she needs to do, that might be enough.

I won't dismiss that GOTV is a potential problem for us in CA, but it won't matter unless the race is really a dead heat or extremely close to it in the first place.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: Rasmussen shows big closing, now...
...47-42, compared to an absurd 49-38 in late September.

Paul's favorability has dipped from 56-39 to 51-45, while Conway is a competitive 50-48.

Turnout model is 48D-39R-13I, and 89% white.  Plausible IMO.

Ras always has given Paul a much bigger edge in this race than all other pollsters, so Scotty now calling this a 5-pointer is significant.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Significant
Post-debate, takes in ad fallout yes?
[ Parent ]
Mark?
Do you still have that feeling that Conway just turned a 5-point loss into a 20-point loss?  Mark?  Mark?  Where'd you go, dude?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Be nice

[ Parent ]
Let's just say I suspect some of us (or at least just me!) were annoyed by this......
Old Mark's Sounding Less Crazy By The Day, No?
I hate to say it....but you heard it here first.  There were three Democrats I held up as examples of Democrats who were probably endangered and nobody knew it going back to the middle of last summer.  Those Democrats were Jim Oberstar, Anthony Weiner, and Dennis Kucinich.  I've been vindicated on two out of three now.  How many days until I get the doomsday hat trick with a poll release showing Anthony Weiner with a 44-42 lead against whoever his phantom opponent is?

That comes off to me as strangely self-congratulatory.

I, too, have commented often that I expect us to lose this or that close race.  But I'm never happy about it, nor do I think I come off as happy about it or hoping to be right.  And the losses I predict are based on the totality of data and other tea leaves; I don't latch myself to a lone William Kristol(!) blog post as the basis for saying we're going to lose a safe Democratic seat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
No I was annoyed by it too

[ Parent ]
I agree with you.
It's especially irritating, as you indicated, because he's not really basing this on strong numbers.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I'm most annoyed
that he is taking these Republican internals, these shifty, untested, quasi-push polls for phantom candidates, at face value.  
[ Parent ]
Meh!
It wasn't as much excitement about being right as it was vindication against people here who told me I was out of my mind.  I guess I would be "annoyed" too for ridiculing someone based on predictions that at least some indications suggest are coming true despite assurances that they would not.
[ Parent ]
i give you credit for being braver than myself
I have my own secret list of what I think may actually happen but I'm keeping it to myself so I don't get mocked up and down every thread for it.
[ Parent ]
I Figure We're All Adults Here......
And we should be able to have a general disagreement on the magnitude of the defensive cycle we're facing.  I tend to think it's much more intense than anybody else around here seems to, and perhaps more than anything else seen in my lifetime or even my parents' lifetime, and figure it's better for the Democrats to hear about what may happen in a plausible worst-case scenario than not.  I expect to get some good-natured heckling.  I'll take that in stride and take my comeuppance like a man if I'm proven to have been way off the mark on November 3.
[ Parent ]
this coming from the Gretchen Weiners
Of the anti-Mark crew?  :)
[ Parent ]
Give It Three Days.....
The media and fellow party members' savaging of Conway has taken him off message and Rand Paul's "bear false witness on another man" response ad is just now circulating.  This is probably another where voters will be outraged only after they are told to be by enough people...in this case including fellow Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Yes, it was conducted Oct. 18.

[ Parent ]
But like I said below, can't say "ad fallout" b/c preceding poll was almost 3 weeks ago.....
I think attack ads have been more important than the debate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
No
But if there were a backlash it would show.
[ Parent ]
Yes, good point. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Not Necessarily
The ad has just been getting attention starting yesterday.  I didn't know anything about the ad till yesterday evening.  Although granted, I do not live in Kentucky.

So, I would say that some people would have known about the ad, but everyone may not have had enough time to let it register.

[ Parent ]
Ad Fallout
That would be very interesting if that were the case. I don't really know what the impact of that ad will be but I think it is important to note that Paul has never denied any of these things. It has also passed the factcheck.org sniff test. Not that people really examine this but it is not a blatantly false ad by Conway. Possibly over the top but it is not recklessly false. Conway was and is down by a few points and has to do something to shake up the race. He doesn't have Sestak's, Bennet's, or even Feingold's states where he can crank up the democratic energy that could in theory give him a path to victory so he had to take a chance. Not sure how this will work but it is a risk he felt the need to take.

I'd love for PPP to poll this race but this is one where I think Scotty's margin is pretty reasonable.

http://www.factcheck.org/2010/...

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
It will be in the second half of their poll choices
Open for a vote. It will probably win too.
[ Parent ]
True, doesn't make it any less dirty
What relevance does it have?  Esepcially for a legislator.  Attacking someone's religious, or non-religious, beliefs is dirty pool.  That it's true, it irrelevant.
[ Parent ]
In some ways
Your take on this surprises me but I do admire your principles. I don't like it either but I also subscribe to the fight fire with fire analogy. Just that I know we have had our disagreements in the past and those would have suggested to me you would be more on the side of the fence articulated at Daily Kos right now.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
Fight fire with fire
You fight fire by fire on the issues, on public statements, on the record.  Not on someone's religious or non-religious beliefs.  There's a line, and Conway crossed it.  And it wasn't like Paul attacked him in a similar way.
[ Parent ]
There's a pretty decent debate
over the ad at samefacts.com. Check it out.

I finally watched the ad. This might be my partisan leanings coming into play, and also my lack non-religious lifestyle showing, but I'm tempted to come down on the side of Jon Zasloff. It doesn't seem to be attacking Paul for not being religious. It seems to be attacking him for attacking those who are.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Whatever it takes to win
Rand Paul is one of the most dangerous politician of our generation. I don't really care how Conway beats him, so long as he's not being outwardly dishonest or bigoted. Politics is a dirty game. You do what you need to to survive

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
if someone holds
absolutely ridiculous and outside of mainstream religious beliefs then I think they should be attacked; if someone thinks such crazy things as Aqua Buddha than what else do they believe?  I like the Flying Spaghetti monster belief as much as any other atheist but I'd never vote for someone who actually believed we were formed from it's noodly tendrils.

I think this needs to be framed as a bigger debate beyond religious beliefs and simply to personal beliefs in general.  If someone has fucked up beliefs like an Aqua Buddha then what else could they possibly believe?  That the Civil Rights Act should be repealed?  That meth isn't a serious issue worth spending money on in rural areas?  This is about personal judgment and his downright stupid religious beliefs are a great vehicle to showcase that he lacks good judgment.

[ Parent ]
Hard to say because the preceding poll was almost 3 weeks earlier, so...
...it probably reflects a couple things IMO.

First, Rasmussen's own methodology ends up picking up more loyal base Dems late in the cycle, I think.  That is, after all, why Rasmussen moves toward the polling mean as an election gets close.

Second, there was a lot more than the debate the past 3 weeks, there have been a lot of ads flying and Paul's own words getting more visibility before the voters.

I'm not surprised if there's been recent tightening because I would have guessed Paul's negatives would have gone up the past few weeks.

But we have a real problem in figuring out what's happening in KY-Sen simply because there's been inadequate polling.  Nathan Gonzalez of the Rothenberg Report posted comments on SSP the past month discrediting the polling by CN2/Braun, the only outfit besides Rasmussen to frequently poll this race.  PPP found Paul up a credible 49-42 in mid-September, and SUSA found a 2-point race later in September.  CNN/Time found a 46-46 tie in early September.  But Rasmussen has dominated and still polls it less frequently than other hotly-contested races.

I hope some better polling gets done the last couple weeks.

Or, screw polling, it's close enough now that I'll be happy just to wait for election day and enjoy an upset Conway win, if he can get it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
where is this poll?

[ Parent ]
Still behind firewall (I subscribe), will go public later today. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I could never do it
I would feel too guilty giving him money. Same feeling I have with WWE and CT-Sen. Incidentally, nobody want to comment on Vince and his publicity stunt?
[ Parent ]
Coming
Cyclone has access behind the paywall.
[ Parent ]
Closest Ras has seen this race all year.
But it just may be reversion to the mean.

I would love for this to be a toss-up, but there's not quite the I.E. numbers behind the scenes that has been going on in the CO-SEN and PA-SEN races.  I think this number could be somewhat accurate, though I also wouldn't be too surprised by a poll with a Conway lead coming out.  Either way, seems that it will end close.

[ Parent ]
Up now
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Ras wonders aloud if it is Aqua Buddha.

[ Parent ]
I bet Scotty
was SO disappointed in these results, hoping to feed the "Conway attack ad misfires!" narrative.

My feeling is that there were already concerns about Paul's religious sensibilities among Christian conservatives in KY. The ad probably just served to reinforce them.

In other words, for people to be mad at Conway over the ad, they'd also need to be mad at themselves for asking the same questions internally.

[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Could Carol Moseley-Braun win?
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/20...

Her internals show her trumping all other potential African-American candidates in the race. The most recent public poll had her in third behind Emanuel and Dart.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Sigh, I hope she doesn't win...

[ Parent ]
PA-SEN poll
I don't know if this is old news or not yet, but...

PPP poll conducted Oct. 17-18:

Joe Sestak (D) 46%
Pat Toomey (R) 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Old news, but still welcome news.
Does the McCain-Obama electorate composition make sense?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Silly me.
How could I have missed that a little farther up in the comments section? My bad.
[ Parent ]
6 points more Republican
Than 2008.
[ Parent ]
Right, so if anything
it is a little too friendly to the Republicans? I mean, Democratic turnout was bound to be off, both in general and as compared to Republican turnout, so even if this isn't entirely accurate, it doesn't way off the mark.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Looks about right to me

[ Parent ]
Natural skepticism
I always have it with virtually all polls conducted a couple weeks or less before Election Day. I've harped on it a few times already this week. "Natural tightening" happens right about now, which makes it seem like every race is a tossup right before the election takes place.
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't it make
sense to assume that there's going to be some natural falloff but not a complete collapse in Democratic composition of the electorate? Shaving half the total from the Democrats seems, upon first glance, to be a decent starting point.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Burr 48-40
Too bad we couldn't really go after him this cycle
I wonder, with investment, whether this would have been a better race than KY-SEN and MO-SEN to go after.  I guess we'll see on Nov. 2.

But if Marshall had won, she would have been a more progressive vote to count on than Conway can be.  And, NC was a state that Obama won, so I assume that it would be more hospitable and OFA has good infrastructure there.  Too bad we were so tied up fighting over PA, IL, CO, WV, WA holds.

[ Parent ]
Hrm, that almost matches my 53-47 projection from yesterday
In '06 or '08, Marshall would've won.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
NRCC poll dump.
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
(* = denotes incumbent)

About what I'd expect from Republican internals.  A little disappointing that WA-03 is not closer.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Er
VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45

Nonsense.

MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42

An independent poll just showed the opposite. The rest aren't unreasonable given the usual caveats and the fact the DCCC has written them off.

[ Parent ]
No poll dates, providers yet?
OR-05 looks like that unreliable Moore Info. poll from yesterday.
[ Parent ]
It is
More info here.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Reading between the lines and taking into account other data they say to me that Boucher, Murphy and Wilson are ahead, Schrader, Hare and Keating are up narrowly, Carney-Marino is a total tossup and Heck, Grayson, Dahlkemper and Kilroy are toast.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
I feel quite adamently that OR-05 is artificially close; due to the trend of the district and the reliable Democratic coalition that usually amounts to 51% of the vote.  
[ Parent ]
sounds reasonable
That's exactly where I had all those races in my own ratings before I saw those polls.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Right...
The first four in the list aren't pivotal in the yardstick I am using for determining which party controls the House. 5 of the remaining 7 can be dismissed as either "not gonna happen" or bad numbers for an internal Republican poll. The only two remaining that are important are IL-17 and PA-10.

IL-17: An internal Republican poll showing Repub Bobby Schilling ONLY ahead by 3 points? Um, I guess a real worrisome internal Republican poll would show Schilling leading by, like, 10 points.

PA-10: This is the most worrisome for Dems. I have doubts that Marino will win because of the internal Carney campaign polls from Momentum Analysis (which is probably the most persuasive partisan, internal polls I've seen due to their impressive likely voter screen). These polls will usually find Carney leading pretty big among PA-10 voters that have voted in 4 of the last 6 general elections.

[ Parent ]
Carney could also get a real boost
now that Sestak is in the game.

Another big beneficiary: Lentz.

[ Parent ]
And Patrick Murphy in PA-08
A Sestak surge could presumably buffer the effects of whetever impending collapse in the Philadelphia suburbs may be in the offing - that one Ryan in DelCo was always talking about. Lentz and Murphy might have their bacon saved because of it, and I'd suspect Callahan would get some kind of boost as well (not that I think realistically think Dent is going down this year).

It'll be interesting to see if any tightening in the gubernatorial race follows.  Having genuinely competitive top-of-the-ticket races could really go a long way in sparing the Democrats a total, out-and-out catastrophe in Pennsylvania this year.

(On a somewhat related note, was that meme about Critz only winning the special election because it coincided with the Democratic primary ever debunked? I feel like it was at some point.)

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
There was a memo
That suggested, persuasively in my view, that turnout was actually driven by the special since it was much higher in the primary in PA-12 than anywhere else in the state.
[ Parent ]
It's nice to see Alan Grayson is down.
Maybe Markos will move onto keeping better Democrats ... yes ... there are better Democrats than Alan Grayson. Grayson deserves that deficit.

And I don't believe the NY-20 numbers at all.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Lynch by 13, Beebe by 16
Boozman 13
49-36
[ Parent ]
Under 50 again

[ Parent ]
I have a hard time seeing her get any closer
When she is under 40.
[ Parent ]
nah
but it will be around 55-45.  
[ Parent ]
Blanche Lincoln
Are you going to miss her? Is anybody going to miss her?
[ Parent ]
Don't count her out...
She can still win this thing, if every undecided voter swings her way.
[ Parent ]
I think the bigger question is whether she breaks 40%


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I should have included
a "snark" tag. ;-)
[ Parent ]
GOP internal polling
http://www.nationalreview.com/...

Per Rich Lowry at the National Review...

- Alaska is "worrisome," with Miller bleeding support, but hard to poll b/c of Murkowski.
- Fiorina in "shockingly good" shape, tied in one poll, narrowly behind in another poll which has Boxer at only 42%.
- Murray up narrowly over Rossi.
- Pennsylvania closing, but Toomey still leads.
- West Virginia tied.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Internals
When they can't poll House races why should we believe these? Especially since even Rasmussen shows nothing of the sort in most.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I'm willing to accept these internals, if reported accurately, are in the right ballpark......
Nothing in that blog post varies much from what we already know.  Boxer's been up narrowly, Lowry paints a slightly better picture than that.  But that's what leaked and released internals do, they paint a slightly (if honest polling, ONLY slightly) better picture than the totality of information supports.  Same with the other races, all in the same ballpark that we thought.

Re CA-Sen in particular, "shockingly good" is subjective, we don't know what their baseline expectation was in the first place.  It's always been close, we've all considered it "Boxer pulling away" if a poll gives her a 5-point lead.

Re the other ones, same ballpark as we already knew.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I guess it can be argued WV is a tie
But ALL the polling in WA shows Murray up by more than "a point or two."  
[ Parent ]
Well SUSA and Rasmussen both say Murray by only 3, and others...
...have her up more, but those "others" are only 3 other polls by 3 other pollsters with a couple of them not having any trendlines.

Honestly I expect each side's HONEST and GOOD internals to be a bit rosier than the average, and I think Murray up "a point or two" qualifies as being in the same ballpark as other polling.  "Ballpark" allows for moderate discrepancy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
We shall see what PPP have to say

[ Parent ]
2 points
They show it a 2 point game.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Disappointing
Thought and expected it would be wider. Better to be ahead than behind though.
[ Parent ]
There are two types of internals
There are the internal polls that are released that paint an overly rosy picture.  And there are also internal polls that are as Ralston states are better than public polling.

The campaigns don't release the realistic internals, but it is the realistic internals that the campaigns use to make the decisions for the campaigns.

[ Parent ]
Translation
Miller is behind.

"Shocking good shape" = she's not down by double digits.

Murray's up by 6.

Pennsylvania is tied.

Manchin is ahead.

[ Parent ]
Palin
I think she meant Florida.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Maybe if this election doesn't work out for him
He can take his carpetbagging up there and run against Casey Jr in 2012?

Also, in what universe will Raese do anything for workers besides spitting on them?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Why?
When he actually lives in the Sunshine State!
[ Parent ]
He could run against Udall
in Colorado. He has another house there, after all.
[ Parent ]
Maybe he and Alan Keyes can
make a reality show where they move to random states and run. I'd watch that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
NV early vote
Clark County Day 3 numbers up.  Margin D +3640 votes.  Think trends seem good.

NV-03 is D +589.

Worrisome news for the Democrats
from the Onion: http://www.theonion.com/articl...

Also, this is my first post here. Longtime lurker (been reading this site since 2004), but I finally decided to join in on the fun. No other political blog is as interesting as this one!

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

Nice Bright numbers
Surprised how well he is doing given the conservative leanings of his district.
OH-Gov: in a surprise to me, both sides' internals confirm a true tossup......
Marc Ambinder's tweet this afternoon:

In Ohio, Dem internals have Strickland up 2 and Republican internals have Kasich up 2.

I'm surprised by both.

And I trust this revelation more than the Q-poll.

I still think Strickland ultimately loses, but losing only narrowly matters a LOT, as it saves some downballot Dems.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Yes, yes, yes.
As I said over the past two days, the Democrats were lucky, in a sense, to have a lot of competitive House districts clustered in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. If the governor's races and Senate races go badly, the losses are contained in those states, but if they do well, they at least, what, at least five but perhaps as many as 10 House seats, or maybe more? If you start from the baseline of, say, 50 House seats being lost, and four to six being picked up, strong performances in those two states alone could make the difference between holding it and losing it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
WA-Sen
PPP has Rossi down by two.

Murry 49(49)
Rossi 47(46)
Note that they have not been in this race since the end of July, so the trend lines are meaningless.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

Toldja
If this thing is really at 49-47, I suspect there's more than a fair chance that Rossi could catch Murray with a decent GOTV operation. Still, I suspect Murray can eek it out with around a 5-point victory. I don't sense Rossi's supporters being too fired-up.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Good call! n/t

[ Parent ]
CO-Sen
From Reuters/Ipsos

Buck   48
Bennet 45

http://www.reuters.com/article...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

Strong upward movement for Bennet
from Ipsos/Reuter's 49-40 result in August.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Note that most of the survey
was conducted before Buck's very bad debate performance on Sunday.

The Ipsos poll of 600 registered voters, including 405 who said they were likely to vote, was taken from Friday through Sunday.

[ Parent ]
Odd they find the same movement as Ras in the
Senate race but not for Tancredo - Hickenlooper up 11.
[ Parent ]
At this point I almost feel like
it's most important to watch Maes' numbers. GOP as a minor party for the next 4 years in CO? yes please!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Maine polls
LePage up 5, Pingree up 16, Michaud 20.

http://www.wcsh6.com/news/loca...

OR-Gov: PPP has Kitzhaber up 48-47......
This isn't spun on DailyKos as anything good, but I think we should take it as good news.  Kitzhaber was down in all polling by single digits for quite a long time, and now we have 3 straight polls that have him up 1-2 points.

http://www.dailykos.com/pollin...

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

OR-Gov
I think each of the last three polls has Kitzhaber up by the same one point margin.  That's amazing.
[ Parent ]
Actually Rasmussen(!) had Kitzhaber up 2, 48-46, and SUSA a point at 46-45. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Feingold down by 2
49-47.  Same poll showed Barrett down by 8.

http://www.wfrv.com/news/wisco...

That should be 9 for the Gov race

[ Parent ]
Not bad
Maybe not a surprise as Dem internals have been vindicated for showing tightening in other races
[ Parent ]
NY-19: Hall 49, Hayworth 48 (Monmouth)
http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin...

Considering this is a SUSA dialed poll and probably undersampled young voters, great poll for Hall.

Tight
Last poll, by Siena, had Hall down by 3.  This is the one contested race in NY I really want to win (I don't consider Hinchey to be in a contested race).  Hall's a great rep.
[ Parent ]
That's actually
just more evidence of the Dems being in DISARRAY! /snark

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
hmm
I wonder if Paladino is dragging other Republicans down. If there's any place you'd expect to see an effect like that, it would be in an upscale swing district like that one.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Good hypothesis. All of the 3 top GOP statewide candidates are TANKING, so...
...that certainly can only help us downballot.  And maybe it's doing just that?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
If God is just teasing us, we need to tell her it is NOT FUNNY!......
I think this makes something in the ballpark of 10 or so polls posted on SSP today that are unambiguously good news for Team Blue.  Best polling day all cycle for us.

Could this be a trend?  Is our base vote really waking up and big enough to turn things around?

We can only hope.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I've been saying that
that if things don't get any worse for the Democrats, there's a chance things will be going a lot less badly than some predict. [knock on wood] That was before we started getting some genuinely good news. If it continues, and we pull even or even establish leads in these races, I can't help but think we will hold the House. [knock on wood]

And just to be clear, I've been fully expecting some truly bad polling results to come knock me back down to reality. There will be some, but time is running out, and what we have seen is starting to look genuinely good.

One question, which I am sure I will ask again: was there any similar tightening and/or good news for Republicans during 2006? I said before that the news seemed to just get worse and worse for the Republicans right up until election day. While it hasn't gotten appreciably better for us, as seen in things like unemployment numbers, I don't think it's really gone sharply in the other direction.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
From your lips...
to God's ears; please be correct.  I don't think that I could take the whole month of the media telling us "what this elelctions means..." as they do for every election.  

That is why on Nov. 2 I am not watching TV or looking at the Internet and I am flying to Montego Bay on Nov. 4 for a week away from it all. :-)

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
It tightened in late August
Early September then then Foley story broke and it was all downhill from there. They still saved a good few seats at the end though - about 25 seats with the winner getting less than 52% of the vote.
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition) | 242 comments

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