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SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 3:59 PM EDT


• IL-Sen: Serial exaggerator Mark Kirk has a new one on his hands: he was previously claiming that he was the driving force behind a bill that cracked down on companies that do business with Iran (but that got turned into a Howard Berman bill so it could pass the Democratic House, says Kirk). Berman says that's not the case at all, and that his committee didn't even consider the Kirk version of the bill.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle had possibly the weirdest ever visit to a group of Latino high school students, first telling them that those weren't supposed to be Latinos in her ad featuring scary-looking dark-skinned persons crossing the border. Maybe those are actually Arabs, and maybe they're crossing the Canadian border, she mused? She then turned the tables back on the students, saying that "I don't know that all of you are Latino. Some of you look a little more Asian to me." Asian like... Middle Eastern terrorists, maybe? With Sharron Angle speaking, who even knows?

• IL-Gov: Whitey no more? Green Party candidate "Rich Whitey" will apparently get ballots in select Chicago wards changed back to his actual (and preferred) name, Rich Whitney. Apparently there was enough time to reprogram all the machines if crews work overtime.

• SC-Gov: I'm not sure whose side to take here: on the one hand, it's good to see the DNC putting money into the late-breaking South Carolina governor's race, where internals see it as a mid-single-digits race and a real opportunity now. On the other hand, South Carolina Dems just sound pissed, saying the $100K expenditure is too little too late (which is probably true).

• CA-03: Here's an eye-catching independent expenditure: American Crossroads (aka Rove, Inc.) is pouring $682K into a TV buy against Ami Bera in the 3rd. That would tend to support the idea that Dan Lungren, who's lost the fundraising game to Bera every quarter, is also putting up some middling internals too.

• PA-07: Now this isn't good, especially this late in the game: the Pennsylvania state Teamsters suddenly revoked their endorsement of Bryan Lentz. There's no official word on what caused the rift, but it seems to relate back to Lentz's sponsorship of a bill that cracks down on construction firms that misclassify workers to avoid paying taxes.

• OH-St. House: The Cleveland Plain Dealer has a good profile of 10 of the most important races in one of our most important legislative chambers, where Dems have a small edge (53-46) and need to hold it for redistricting purposes. It's a mix of suburban Cleveland, suburban Columbus, and the rural southern part of the state.

• AFL-CIO: Here's an interesting memo out from the AFL-CIO's political director today suggesting that they've made a lot of under-the-radar progress in the last few weeks, redirecting members who weren't engaged or were flirting with the Republicans. In particular, Pennsylvania stands out, where they're finding that Joe Sestak now has a 55-26 lead among union members, up from only 45-39 at the start of September. They also point out that Joe Manchin now has a 40-point lead among union members in another union-heavy state, West Virginia.

• Early voting: Early voting gets underway today in Florida and Texas, along with five other smaller states. Adding in the states where voting has already started, that means the election is truly afoot in nearly half of all states.

• Debates: We're adding a new component to our digests: courtesy of our friends at C-SPAN, a list of all the debates that are on tap and on the air each night on C-SPAN. Because if you're reading this, we know you can't get enough politicking:
8 pm ET: WV-Sen
9 pm ET: WI-07
10 pm ET: IL-11
11 pm ET : AZ-05

• SSP TV:
• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski may be the only Republican running a pro-pork campaign, with her new ad talking about how Joe Miller will cut off the flow of federal funds to Alaska
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet hits Ken Buck on Social Security privatization and his hardcore pro-life positions
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway moves quickly along from the 'Aqua Buddha' ad, turning the conversation back to mine safety, while Rand Paul continues to whine about it, spending an ad touting his Christian faith
• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt tries out a little Medicare sleight-of-hand (the whole HCR-cut-Medicare!!1! line)
• NH-Gov: The DGA, via local group Citizens for Strength and Security, hits John Stephen for retaining his campaign manager even after he received a restraining order for stalking
• NRCC: If you've ever wanted to watch 40+ Republican House ads in one sitting, here's your chance

• Rasmussen:
• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 39%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 52%
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 47%
• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 45%
• HI-Sen: Dan Inouye (D-inc) 53%, Cam Cavasso (R) 40%
• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 47%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 50%
• UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 29%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 66%
• UT-Sen: Sam Granato (D) 29%, Mike Lee (R) 54%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 46%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Afternoon Edition) | 306 comments
The Angle "Asian" quote gets even worse......
MSNBC First Read reports:

"What we know, what we know about ourselves is that we are a melting pot in this country," Angle continued. "My grandchildren are evidence of that. I'm evidence of that. I've been called the first Asian legislator in our Nevada State Assembly."

Angle, who served in the statehouse between 1998 and 2006, was best known for frequently being the only "no" vote among the 42-member assembly on otherwise unanimous agreements.

The basis for the "first Asian legislator" comment? Ralston writes on his blog: "I have no idea what she is talking about."

OH. MY. GOD.

If she wins, it means Nevadans have truly lost their minds.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

It's why she won't win...
Over the weekend, I reminded folks into my precinct to get out & vote. All the Dems are voting Reid... Only a couple may need another "checkup" next weekend to make sure they voted. I also ran into a neighbor who I learned is a "Republican for Reid", and all but one Nonpartisan will be voting for Reid (the only one who won't just won't vote at all, sad).

Now I know my precinct alone doesn't tell the whole story of what's happening, but the early vote totals so far have been pretty good. About 4% more Dems than Reeps are turning out statewide, which is where Reid needs to be to win. Dems are slightly outperforming 2006 early vote turnout so far, while Reeps are slightly underperforming 2006. And again, Reeps are only overperforming voter registration by about 1%... Not good for them...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Thanks. Ralston did, indeed, discuss early voting as...
...favorable to Dems so far, after the first weekend.

Yours is the one Senate race in the country I care about above all others.  I desperately want Reid to win and Angle to lose, America NEEDS that result.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Btw, I should also mention...
My precinct is one of the most GOP heavy in Henderson. Both the Republican running for State Assembly this year AND the Republican who ran in 2008 live in the same precinct as me (and, FYI, the head NVDems Henderson organizer as well... Funny), in the subdivision across Windmill Pkwy from my gated condo community & the gated townhouse community next to mine. Now most of the Republicans in my precinct, especiallly that subdivision across Windmill, have big Angle signs and local GOP signs... But again, I've also found a handful of "Republicans for Reid" and even more Indies voting for Reid and Titus.

Now as long as they vote, all the regular Dems vote, and more of the Dems who usually don't vote in midterms break that habit this time, we'll do much better than many of the public polls have been forecasting (just as I've been telling y'all!!!). ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I'd clearly regret having this actually happen
but anyone curious what she would do with a US Senate seat?  Would she go down in history as the worst of all time maybe?  Would she be so heavily ridiculed she'd resign a la Sarah Palin?  It'd be hysterical watching McConnell have to back-track everything she says and read all the articles about how everyone hates her, even Rand Paul.

But yes, the country really does need her to lose.  

[ Parent ]
We already have
We already have a Michelle Bachmann for the lulz.

Based on Angle's record in the Nevada Lege, she'd object to every unanimous consent request, and be even worse than Jim DeMint in grinding the gears of the Senate to a halt. Wow, actually, the more I think about, the worse it starts to seem.

Sweet Jesus, Nevada, please don't inflict Sharron Angle on the nation. I really don't think we can handle it right now.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that is the part that just blew my mind.
Then, Angle's spokesperson blamed the whole incident on Reid and his race baiting. That woman and her entire campaign are crazy.

On a positive note, a poster on DK says Reid has begun busing union workers from the strip to polling stations today. Let's hope that provides a big boost to the Clark County Dem #s.

[ Parent ]
You have no idea
how happy it makes me to read those words. This is exactly what he should be doing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Here's the video of her saying that:
The students are like "WTF?" when she says some of them look Asian.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
She is truly bizarre.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
pretty plausible stuff, sharon
credible, believable stuff, that you can totally say with a straight face.
solid.
[ Parent ]
Just visited WWE.com
To be greeted by Vince McMahon himself defending the company against "unfair" attacks brought about by the Connecticut Senate race. Half of me says "What the hell did you expect!" the other half says "Always the businessman!"
Those AFL-CIO numbers are interesting
Can anyone tell me why a member of a Union would even THINK about voting for a republican?  I know the Dems have strayed away from Labor issues since the 70's, but Jesus Christ, voting for Corporate pigs like the republican party is just the worst thing they could do if they wanted to maintain any of the things they have today due to labor unions.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Hell if I know.
   I'm from a two-union (white-collar) family.  Straight Democratic tickets all around.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Union members are like all other voters, they vote based on a lot of different things......
There are plenty of union members who are white male pro-life gun owners.  There are plenty of union members who are evangelical fundamentalist Christians.  And there are plenty of union members who are small government libertarians.  And it goes on like this.  And this is all among people who share a favorable opinion of labor unions and, of course, belong to unions.

People have all kinds of combinations of politial opinions.  We must take voters are they are.

And in the case of union members, they routinely give 30%-40% of their votes to a Republican in any given election.  I think Reagan won 40% in 1984.  A Democrat seldom exceeds 70% of the union vote.  This range is just what's normal.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
They're coming home to Dems here...
A couple weeks ago, an AFL-CIO rep told us their Nevada internal poll showed 72% of union members are supporting Harry Reid and 75% of union members in NV-03 are also supporting Dina Titus. They've come home to us BIG TIME.

Last year, there were some rumblings over a few unions being angry with Reid over Yucca Mountain (a couple actually supported it, though Strip giants like Culinary 226 & TWU strongly oppose it) as well as the lack of progress on the Employee Free Choice Act. However, it seemed the tide started to turn when Sue Lowden emerged as the GOP frontrunner (Culinary famously defeated her in the 1996 State Senate race after she declared all out war on them)... And then when Sharron Angle won the GOP primary, they really came home as they learned how anti-union she is!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Crucial for GOTV
Reminds me of 2000 when they made a huge difference to bridging the final polls.
[ Parent ]
PA-07 Unions.
   I don't what is going on with teamsters.  That bill sounds like a great idea to me.

  Unions are very strange players in southeastern Pennsylvania.  They endorse a lot of Republicans.  For example, my Republican state senator is AFL-CIO endorsed.  Teamsters are usually Democratic though.  I think the Lentz team saw this coming, because Lentz was playing up his lack of connections from unions in the last debate.  Lentz has brass ones, so I am not surprised he would not kiss rings to get an endorsement.  

  On a more practical note, the teamsters are not a large presence in the district.

24, Male, GA-05

Don't they have a history of being more open to the GOP
Than any other union? Wasn't Jimmy Hoffa a big Nixon guy? But that may have had more to do with the Rackets Committee than anything ideological.
[ Parent ]
The Teamsters were the only union to endorse Reagan in 1980, and yes they have been...
...more open to supporting Republicans than any other union.

Still, they endorse and help mostly Democrats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Correction, also endorsing Reagan in 1980 were....
...PATCO (air traffic controllers) and ALPA (airline pilots).

Reagan went on to literally destroy PATCO.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
thanks for the reminder about PATCO
I remember learning that a few years ago.  The classic back-stab.
[ Parent ]
it's not a big deal
They're not endorsing Meehan.  They're just upset with Lentz for having supported a common sense reform measure without their getting more out of the bargain.
[ Parent ]
To be the one person to defend unions....
Essentially, Lentz had this bill, and it did not include transportation workers.  Lentz refused to expand it to include transportation workers and refused to table the bill.  

Lentz is one of only three Dems running for Congress in PA they are not supporting (only one Republican got their support, and that is an unwinnable district for us).

I love the Lentz campaign, but I was a Teamster, and I can certainly understand their motives.  What is the point of endorsing Democrats when those Democrats won't support your positions?

Moreover, the impact it will have is negligible because they are hardcore for Onorato and Sestak.  The bigger issue unionwise is Lentz losing the aerospace workers.

[ Parent ]
So the need to vote your interest on every issue?
That's an interesting stance to have.  How often will Meehen vote their interest? I bet even if they didn't like him on this bill that Lentz will be much better for the Teamsters.  Just seems like they can't see the forest for the trees.  
[ Parent ]
As people who know me say,
I am the whitest white boy they know, so I have no idea what having the racial identity of a Hispanic or black is like. I know more motivates them than simple racial concerns, but Angle has made, from what I can tell, plenty of outrageous comments. Thus, I have to ask: how is it that any Hispanic person in the state of Nevada who has the ability to vote is NOT extremely eager to vote for Reid, or at least hurt her in some way?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
It's kind of like the Union post above...
I know an entire small business filled with Latinas that are all devoutly Catholic and 100% pro-life and anti-gay marriage.  They consider abortion murder.  They don't live in NV, but if this race were playing out in front of them, they would say, "Maybe she's said some stupid things, but at least she is pro-life.  The other guy wants to kill babies, and nothing she can say is worse than that."  I remember talking to them in the fall of '08 and they were all voting McCain.  Oh well.
[ Parent ]
I'm NOT seeing that here...
So far, from what I've been hearing from my friends on the East Side and North Las Vegas (2 of the most Latin@ heavy parts of town), they're breaking heavily for Reid... It's now just a matter of GOTV. If we can boost turnout in those areas above 2006 levels (and early signs so far are looking good), it will be quite good for Reid... And even Dina Titus, for that matter. The East Side is split b/w NV-01 and NV-03, and a small chunk of North LV was also drawn into NV-03. NV Dems have been working hard to remind Latin@s in these areas to vote for Reid AND Titus (especially since voters there weren't as familiar with Dina as Henderson folks are).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
With all this good news re GOTV and the early voting
thus far in NV, any chance all that could help pull Rory Reid out of the deep hole he's in? Or is he a goner?
[ Parent ]
Good because at least one Hispanic activist in your state is a FUCKING ASSHOLE!!! (link)......
See here:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Asshole!

Yeah, the BEST way to GET HEARD is to be quiet and hide in the corner!

Sadly I see this sentiment from time to time on DailyKos and other blocs of Democrats, who think they'll "teach a lesson" by refusing to vote at all.

You don't vote, you get ignored the next time around, not listened to.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well, yes.
I think it was in Kentucky in 2008 where McCain got 11 or 12 percent of black voters. To some voters, some issues are just deal breakers, and it doesn't surprise me that abortion is one such issue for hardcore Catholics.

But I was talking about everyone outside a small number of Hispanics that simply wouldn't vote for Reid. That is, most of the Hispanics in the state, or so I would imagine.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Until the South Carolina Democrats
present evidence that there are fundamental factors that could have helped them win the governorship and thus justified investment until a week or so, they can't be pissed. It's on them to present this information.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
SC-Gov Fundraising
Republican Nikki Haley raised $2.16 million to Democrat Vincent Sheheen's $1.8 million during the last several months for their race to become South Carolina's next governor.

Neither campaign has yet released a detailed list of their contributions raised between July 1 and Oct. 13.

Haley has $700,000 to spend during the final two weeks of the campaign, according to her campaign.

http://www.postandcourier.com/...

[ Parent ]
Generic Ballot
Don't know if this has been posted elsewhere, but Ras has the GOP up 9 on the generic ballot:

GOP 48 (47)
Dem 39 (39)

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Curious to see what the ever-changing Gallup has for us today.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

I'd like to think Rasmussen is stretching the lead
So he can bring it in again the last two weeks. All I got. Best can do.
[ Parent ]
Keep in mind that
Gallup's LV result is essentially a tracking poll (based on two weeks' data), so the LV numbers they publish each Monday overlap by 50% with the previous results. They started doing this two weeks ago, when they introduced the LV model. So I doubt we'll see changes as dramatic as we saw over the summer and early fall.
[ Parent ]
Early voting in NC - Angry White Males
http://www.wral.com/news/local...

Raleigh, N.C. - After three days, one-stop early voting is on a record-setting pace for a midterm election, and white Republican men are furiously casting ballots, according to an analysis by Democracy North Carolina.

The nonpartisan political watchdog group says the total number of Republicans who voted between Thursday and Saturday still trailed Democrats statewide by about 4,300. Yet, the margin is significantly smaller than the 3-1 ratio Democrats held in 2008.

"Early voting doesn't favor one party or another, but reveals who's most organized and enthusiastic about making their voices heard," Bob Hall, executive director of Democracy North Carolina, said in a statement.


Are the North Carolina
Democrats even remotely as organized as the Iowa, Ohio, or Nevada Democrats?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
AR-1 poll
A DCCC-sponsored Anzalone Liszt Research poll conducted Oct. 11-13 has this...

Chad Causey (D) 44%
Rick Crawford (R) 42%
Ken Adler (I?) 3%

400 LVs. 4.9 MoE.

Take that for what you will.  

Crawford probably winning
But worth investment I think.
[ Parent ]
Pretty weak for an internal
But at least it indicates the race is close.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Not When You Consider.....
....that Crawford had a 12-point lead in last week's poll from Mark Penn.
[ Parent ]
Penn...
Really? Mark Penn? Serial idiot and well-known asshole Mark Penn?

Look, I think Crawford will win this one. But I'm inclined to think he has a lead of closer to 3-6 points than 12.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I Don't Remember You Unilaterally Dismissing All Those Penn Polls Last Week.....
Whatever credibility you think Penn does or doesn't have, when the only public poll shows you trailing by 12 points, then I'd say it's a good move to release your own internal poll showing you leading by two.  That was my point.
[ Parent ]
OH-10: Kucinich up 4 in opponent's internal polling
I gotta say
Kucinich is in some trouble.  He's never been widely beloved here, and the people that don't vote for him almost universally HATE him.  With the Cuyahoga County government scandal still swirling, it's not outside the realm of probability that he could go down.  

Of course, his opponent is NOT winning at this point.  He's never gone up on any kind of media that I've seen, and I'm just across the boundary from OH-10.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
I'm
not an Ohioan but my guess is he squeaks by. This is a GOP internal and there is only two weeks left. Honestly I can't say I like him but I would suck it up and vote for him. If he does lose who would be possible successors?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
kucinich losing?
that's unpossible.  he has great (X) great (Y) and of course, (opponent's problem z) that guarantee he'll be safe.  it's idiotic to think otherwise.  (Sorry, i'm feeling snarky tonight).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
No, Stephen, Kucinich is safe, and this is a bunk poll to try to raise money (link)......
The GOP campaign leaked this nonsense to conservative dingbat William Kristol to get attention and try to raise some money.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

As others have pointed out, small sample size, no details, and this easily could be "the informed ballot."

This is not a serious poll, and Kucinich is not in trouble.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
But, those who do like him REALLY like him...
...and are likely voters.  If Dennis is in any trouble, Strickland's GOTV operation that is Cuyahoga County heavy should bail him out.  I wouldn't be surprised, though, if it was in single digits.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
no memo, no precise numbers... Is it "up 4%" with tons of undecided? Makes all the difference in a Dem district.
[ Parent ]
Poll-palooza!
Most polls aren't anything to get excited about. They can be easily explained as being some biased internal poll or simply showing natural tightening of races that occur right before an election. This one can be explained away by both.
[ Parent ]
Good grief
"319 person sample, with a margin of error of 5.6 percent". The usual bullshit.
[ Parent ]
LOL


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Some internal polls
are really infernal polls.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Old Mark's Sounding Less Crazy By The Day, No?
I hate to say it....but you heard it here first.  There were three Democrats I held up as examples of Democrats who were probably endangered and nobody knew it going back to the middle of last summer.  Those Democrats were Jim Oberstar, Anthony Weiner, and Dennis Kucinich.  I've been vindicated on two out of three now.  How many days until I get the doomsday hat trick with a poll release showing Anthony Weiner with a 44-42 lead against whoever his phantom opponent is?
[ Parent ]
If that happens
It will be a Republican poll. Like the one that had Urquhart hardly down in Delaware then the next six polls were double digits for Carney. There are many other examples. But if you want to buy the BS the GOP are selling be my guest.
[ Parent ]
Another example
McLaughlin find Ann Marie Buerkle up one point in NY-25 yet Siena has Maffei up 12.
[ Parent ]
The Late Poll Releases Are Only The First Step.....
They create a narrative where the incumbent is under the spotlight, is vulnerable to make gaffes, may have embarrassing revelations unearthed that otherwise wouldn't have been (like the discovery that Oberstar had exactly one campaign contributor from his district), and free reign for the undefined challenger to play the role of populist David charging hard against Goliath for the final two weeks of a campaign in a virulently anti-incumbent climate.  
[ Parent ]
Or the spotlight
turns to the challenger, who is by definition much less vetted than the incumbent, and in this crazy year, just might have a bunch of frightening skeletons in the closet.

Plus, Democrats in the district, who may have taken the election of their congressperson for granted, can then be motivated to get to the polls.

[ Parent ]
The Beauty of the Last-Minute Surge.....
....the incumbent was caught flat-footed, has done no opposition research, and whatever unflattering revelations come out about the incumbent once under the spotlight are more damaging than whatever last-minute discoveries are made about the Republican challenger.  We're gonna be seeing this movie play over and over and over in the next two weeks.
[ Parent ]
The Next Democrat Who Will Find Himself In Big Trouble.....
....Jim Cooper in TN-05.
[ Parent ]
Bennie Thompson and Chakah Fattah
are in dead heats in Republican internal polls.  I wish I were kidding.  Every goddamn Republican who isn't getting attention from the national party has a poll showing himself or herself within the margin of error.  It's the boy who cried wolf.  I call bullshit on all of it.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
^^THIS^^ (eom)

[ Parent ]
Remember the idiot in the FL-19 special?
He lead too with "super voters". In reality he lost by nearly 30 points.
[ Parent ]
It's called psy-ops polls
Come out with a bullshit internal poll.  Watch the lazy media, partisans and concern trolls get all worked up.  And suddenly there's a "race."
[ Parent ]
Based on garbage data
Rather than demographics then. I guess you also think Gallup are onto something correct?
[ Parent ]
Gallup's Polls Have Always Fluctuated Wildly.....
I don't give them much credence individually.  I look at the aggregate of polling rather than any single pollster.
[ Parent ]
Good to know
You see them winning the popular vote by about 7 points then?
[ Parent ]
Seven Points Is Probably About Right For October 18.....
....but on November 2 when the undecideds break 5-1 Republican, it'll most likely be 11 points.
[ Parent ]
Oh the humanity!

[ Parent ]
If building a narrative worked that easily
We'd have a Congresswoman Greenwald.
[ Parent ]
GOP
 internal. Though he could go down it is by no means a sure thing and you really should not take internals from either side at face value. A very bad practice. I actually posed whether or not he could lose months ago. For the most part I got mixed reviews but he was not necessarily off the radar. I have been worried about him for awhile and he could go down. No offense but neither this or any other polls we have seen support your predictions. We will know in two weeks.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Missed Your Diary On This.....
Here I thought I was the first to raise this prospect.
[ Parent ]
No
diary. I mentioned this in as a comment. I did not think he would lose then but rather face a closer election. I still doubt he loses. I think he eeks out a win.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The answer, thankfully, is NO.
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Once again, Weiner's not going to lose
Anyone who knows southern Brooklyn and Queens would know that Weiner is actually a perfect fit for the area, he's extremely pro-Israel which is really all the Orthodox Jews in that area really care about (the rest of the Jews are so strongly Democratic that it's really irrelevant).

In fact, I'll be you $50 right here that Weiner gets at least 60% of the vote come election day!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
If Ryan were still posting
Right about now he would be telling us about the fallacy of relying too much of presidential performance and PVI.
[ Parent ]
Tempted To Take You Up On That......
....but I'm neither a rambling man or a gambling man.
[ Parent ]
Gentlemen Please.
We do not bet real money here, we only deal in babka.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
A good babka
is worth its weight in gold.
[ Parent ]
Sorry, but, what is a "babka"?

[ Parent ]
That's funny in so many ways
You'd find good Babka in those heavily Jewish areas in Brooklyn and Queens (exactly where Weiner's district is!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Why is it that you need to rely on internal
Republican polls to prove a point?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I Suppose Because.....
....the public pollsters, along with everybody else, haven't bothered to poll the race, assuming the Democrats are running away with easy victories.
[ Parent ]
Yet in cases where
There are internal Republican polls and independent polls there is a wide discrepancy. Or they have Allyson Schwartz up just two points when her polling has her up 25. My final word on this is that I think you are placing too much faith in the fallacy of the 50% rule, of undecided voters always breaking to the challenger and in the GOP ad their "polls" when they have an obvious agenda to push.
[ Parent ]
In a case like this,
isn't it simply easy to follow the money? If there have been no significant investments in a district like Weiner's or Schwartz's, just to use two examples, by either committees or outside groups, isn't it safe to say that it's very, very, very unlikely that the incumbent will lose? Wouldn't that particularly apply just a few weeks before the election?

As far as I know, that certainly applies to most of the candidates on that infamous list of 93 vulnerable Democrats by Mark.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Remember in 2006
when Rahm Emanuel  had to be reminded of who Carol Shea-Porter was on election night?  
[ Parent ]
CSP is the exception which proves the rule
She's remarkable because of how rarely that actually happens.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
But I can think of at least two
"how did that person survive?" examples: Jim Gerlach and Heather Wilson. And how about not picking up a single seat in Illinois or New Jersey in 2006?

In a wave election, you lose some elections you expected to win, and win some that weren't even on your radar.  

[ Parent ]
Heather Wilson survived for a specific reason and people following the race saw it possibly coming......
Here's the reason:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Madrid was bad, bad, bad.  It stuck, and her very real lead evaporated.

Debates rarely matter in voting behavior...except when they do.  And "when they do" is when there's a "gotcha" moment.  Madrid gave Wilson exactly that.  And Wilson closed fast and won.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
As DCCyclone stated, Wilson won because Madrid screwed up.. BAD
Plus, even then, Heather Wilson still only barely won the election (trust me, I was there for every agonizing minute of that recount).

There are surprises, but most of the races aren't surprises, Gerlach and Wilson are noteworthy because they defied the rule.

Waves are somewhat unpredictable, but they're not that unpredictable.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Actually, I don't.
I didn't really pay attention to the 2006 races until the very, very end, when the scandals were really becoming absurd. I was pumped that people were saying the Democrats were going to take the House, but neither the candidate that I voted for while at college nor the one where I lived back home were in competitive elections.

Anyway, I've heard so much about this and the contrast between Rahm and Howard Dean and their styles, but it's hard to piece together what was what. Is there any book written about what happened? I'd be interested to read it, should it exist. The last book that I read that focused on elections was Ruy Tuxiera's The Emerging Democratic Majority. I was mocked by some for describing its thesis, but I believe the election of President Obama largely vindicated both it and me.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Well you've probably heard this before but the basic
difference between Rham/Dean was that Rham's strategy was to only contest close districts/states and focus all Dem resources in those places while Dean wanted a "50 state strategy" that put democratic resources in districts/state that hadn't been competitive before in an attempt to widen the playing field. At the end of the day I think Obama (with probably some nodding from the DNC) went with Deans plan and it payed off with wins in North Carolina/Indiana and many longshot house/senate races (Begich, Tester, McCaskill, Webb, etc). That being said people who agree with Rham can always point to lost opportunites in say IL-06, PA-06, NJ-07 etc. but at the end of the day we have both houses and the presidency and are competitive in regions that were wern't less then 5 years ago so in my opinion Dean had the better plan.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
That's rewriting history
Conrad Burns was always vulnerable, he was being targeted pretty early on by the DSCC under Chuck Schumer (who was never a Dean boster), as was Missouri (Talent was a freshman who barely won in a special election, do you think anyone was writing off that race early on?), Webb was also chosen by national Democrats in the event of something happening (ie: George Allen's big mouth).

As a rare Obama supporter who didn't back Howard Dean in 2004 (I was actually a Clark supporter, if you can believe it), I was never impressed with Dean, and largely felt he was all talk and little action; Obama was never a lip-service man, he's a community organizer and used that to his advantage in all states (and, as an aside, we'll see if Obama's field organization can't save a few critical seats come November).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
But I wasn't claiming that Dean alone was the reason that those races were competitive but the mantality of the DNC going on full offense putting money into and registering democrats in red states likely tipped the scales in at least Montana and Virginia before they became competitive. While the DSCC/DCCC primarily followed on weekly polling to decide where to plant money. I don't believe every democratic organization should follow a "50 state strategy" but I think the DNC doing so is a good idea while keeoing up a small reserve as back up for the DSCC/DCCC/Prez. I also don't believe the DNC alone is responsible for democratic gains in 06/08 but I think many of those gains were made possible by the DNCs original work. I think it was smart for Obama to follow a similar plan in 2008 because a large amount of the country that was not inclined to vote democrat was giving it a second look in 2006/2008 and it paid off. Hopefully some of those voters will stick with the dems and in a close prez election we could afford to lose say Ohio and Florida while making up for it by winning CO/NC/VA/IN/NV etc.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Yet Bradley was still on the vulnerability boards
Several dozen of the people being talked about are nowhere near it.
[ Parent ]
A list of New York congressmen I consider more vulnerable than Weiner.
NY-01 Tim Bishop
NY-02 Steve Israel
NY-03 Carolyn McCarthy
NY-05 Gary Ackerman
NY-07 Joseph Crowley
NY-13 Michael McMahon
NY-18 Nita Lowey
NY-19 John Hall
NY-20 Scott Murphy
NY-21 Paul Tonko
NY-22 Maurice Hinchey
NY-23 Bill Owens
NY-24 Michael Arcuri
NY-25 Dan Maffei
NY-27 Brian Higgins
NY-28 Louise Slaughter  

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
How many of them are truly vulnerable?
I hope that list was partially tongue-in-cheek.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Gallup
Here's Gallup's take on things as they stand:

    Reg       High      Low
GOP  48(47)   53(53)    56(56)  
Dem  43(44)   42(41)    39(39)
     +5       +11       +17

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

great
the two horsemen of our apocolypse regarding the generic ballot, Gallup and Rassmussen, bring out a pair of crushers once again, just like last Monday.  

I guess I'll have to wait until later in the week to do my rankings again this week, once some more friendly pollsters turn in their results (ie: PPP, NBC/WSJ, YouGov, Ipsos, etc)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Didn't the YouGov
poll have the generic ballot tied last week?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
The AP article had Dems up +5
Although I had never heard of the pollster before, a group called "Knowledge Networks".

Here is the link to the TPM poll tracker

[ Parent ]
Internet poll n/t

[ Parent ]
WTF is AP doing using an internet poll?
And WTF is it doing quoting it incorrectly on top of everything else wrong with the poll?

Seriously, who is running things at the AP, it's worse than a high school newspaper when it comes to political analysis these days.

[ Parent ]
WTF?
Yes. That's the reaction I've had looking at many polls in recent years.

WTF are people still doing taking Zogby seriously? WTF were C-Span and Reuters doing teaming up with said Zogby for the '08 election?

WTF is up with the whole DailyKos/Research 2000 thing?

WTF is up with the while 538.com/Strategic Vision thing?

WTF is up with Gallup's generic ballot in the 2010 election?

Automated polls? Really, WTF?

WTF are people still doing choosing Rasmussen as the ONE poll to quote from when there are others? And kind of obliviously quoting Rasmussen as a beacon of objectivity? WTF?

Just, WTF?
 

[ Parent ]
I got another one...
WTF was up with the polls before the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary?
[ Parent ]
That one isn't quite as weird
There were many reasons to be skeptical of the NH polls, everyone just got caught up in the momentum.

Most polls were taken on Friday-Sunday before Iowa and New Hampshire - in the IMMEDIATE aftermath of the caucuses. They were bound not to be reliable nor capture the bounce's rollback.

[ Parent ]
I've long since...
...dismissed the national generic ballot test. I've dismissed all "macro-" or "big picture" means of predicting a midterm election outcome.

They should especially be dismissed when district-by-district analysis contradicts the info contained in the "big picture" predictions. And that is what is happening this year.

[ Parent ]
"Implausible"
[ Parent ]
not merely implausible, but "wildly implausible"

[ Parent ]
MO-Sen poll
from P-Trip

Blunt 46
Carnahan 41
Dine (Libertarian) 3
Beck (Constitution) 3

Tie amongst women, Blunt up amongst men. Tie amongst people born between 1946 and 1965. Impossibly low 18-29 sample (6%?). Both candidates rate negatively on favorable/unfavorable #. Neither 3rd party guy is gonna get 3%.

Also, it's not purely cellphones, caller ID has to be involved too.

Hey, there's a plausible path to victory in those numbers.

We'd have to assume Blunt's maxed out his support
That assumption makes sense to me, but PPP may not be pushing leaners on both sides.

So Blunt's numbers in addition to Carnahan's may be understated.

[ Parent ]
Survey dates = Oct 17-18
How is that possible? They conducted some of these polls during the day today?
[ Parent ]
Could Generalized Polling Be Obsolete In The World of Cell Phones?
Is it possible there's an undercurrent of younger voters out there simply not being polled who plans to vote 60-40 Democratic this fall?
[ Parent ]
Only for robocallers.
Pollsters will just have to hire humans to do dialing to reach cellphones.

50% of 25-29 year olds are cell phone only.

[ Parent ]
IL-Gov, Good, I couldn't grasp why it was be so hard to fix
one minor spelling typo on a very small sub-set of machines.
That's NOT "re-programming" for crying out loud (which in my mind would be like adding races or adding/deleting candidates)

Anyway, "Rich Whitey" got several million bucks of free publicity and free media of out that unfortunate outrageous typo.

PPP has got their last round of polls left to poll
I'm guessing they will poll the top six winners.  I voted for NH, Need to see if Hodes can seal the deal or if he will fall just a bit short.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Vermont, Maine or South Carolina
Would be interesting. I'm sure Connecticut will be one of them. They are definitely doing Alaska, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

[ Parent ]
NH
Hodes is trailing by substantial amounts in most polls. Even if you think he can still win, question is: "Whether Ayotte has sealed the deal or whether she might still fall a bit short" - not the other way around.

Also, they're polling the top 3 from this list.

I went with Maine.

[ Parent ]
I
would vote for NH if they promised to look at the CD's. Will they? I do want a good look at Shea Porter and Kuster. Otherwise polling NH is useless. The question now is whether Hodes breaks 45, I do not think he does.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
i read
that they'll poll 3 eastern states, and 3 non-eastern states that aren't the 12 currently confirmed.

For California: They need to poll the down ballot races, at least Attorney General or Prop 23. Where's a Field poll when you need them?

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Voted Vermont
Must have more polling!
[ Parent ]
Yup
Mark is worried Pat Leahy is in trouble!
[ Parent ]
I voted for California
Can never be too sure with Pelosi's seat.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Yep
Might have to get NY-16 polled too, with Hispanic turnout going so low, I just don't know if Jose Serrano can pull it out!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Barbara Mikulski's going down...
You heard it here first! ;-)
[ Parent ]
The Republican running against Pelosi
(yeah, I keep forgetting his name) put out a glossy flyer explaining all of his positions, and never once mentioned that he was a Republican--the kiss of death here in San Francisco.
[ Parent ]
Isn't he
Running to her left on some issues? I know he is anti-war and criticizing Pelosi for not getting us out of Afghanistan and Iraq, and has picked up the endorsement of the anti-war Indy who ran against Pelosi and came in 2nd place over the Republican in 2008. He is also saying Pelosi is not pro-gay enough.  
[ Parent ]
Yes, his issues were pretty good.
However, he's in the wrong party. ;)  
[ Parent ]
I voted for NH
Want to see where the Gov race is.  
[ Parent ]
It seemed to get close
Right after the primary but even Rasmussen had it back to double digits last week.

[ Parent ]
Had to vote for Massachusetts
They haven't been here since January despite our fairly competitive governor's race. Plus, the Suffolk poll from last week had Scott Brown's approval at 54%, higher than anyone else they polled (Patrick, his challengers, Kerry, and Obama) and I want to see if PPP validates that.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Michael Bennett
 Is getting closer and the ad in the digest is definitely helping him. It reminded me a bit of the "Puppies" ad in 2006 that the DNC ran against Michael Steele.

The Bennett ad starts of with "Colorado has extremes, extreme mountains, extreme rivers and extremists." It then went on showing how Buck wanted to privitize social security, showing a picture of an old man with a grayish background. It did a few more examples with the gray background and sad faces. The ad still had a bright picture though with pictures of Colorado's nature.

It was overall a great ad.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Very nice ad I agree....
I have been pretty impressed with Bennet's campaign this year. For this being the first campaign that he has ever run and in this political climate he has done a very nice job in defining Buck after holding off Romanoff. I think it was the PPP poll that showed him winning independents. With a handful of undecided voters and the potential for Dems to come home (Obama won CO by nearly 9%) this may be a seat that we can eek out a close win. If the election were today I would say Buck wins a very narrow race. Bennet still has time and there are enough undecided and unlikely voters to turn out that he can win this. I think he is more likely to win than Sestak or Feingold and I put him as the 6th most likely to flip (ND, AR, IN, WI, PA).  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Colorado is a state
 Where it really depends on how fired up the base is. The people there seem to be either liberals in ski resorts, Denver or Boulder or conservatives in Douglas County or a rural county without a ski resort. There are some moderates in the suburban swing counties though.  In 2004, both bases were motivated but there seemed to not be enough Democrats to win though. In 2008, there was a combination of a less energetic base but also there were more Democrats because the ski resort counties which had mostly maxed out turnout in 2004 went even bigger for Obama so it looks like Democrats are definitely moving into the state though.

If the base is not excited though, Democrats will have to make up for lost ground by winning the moderates in Jefferson and Araphoe Counties. Those counties are suburban counties without the social conservatives of Colorado Springs so Bennett portraying Buck as an extremist on social issues will probably help him there. Bennett has been hammering abortion rights in his ads and there is a big gender gap in the polls. Also, the Buck comment about high heels probably did not help with women either.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
If you go to pollster.com for this race

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
and change the chart by selecting the most sensitive smoothing, Buck's line is plunging and the lines are just about to cross.
I think the less engaged voters are finally waking up. And they're learning how crazy Buck is.
[ Parent ]
Oh wow, I just looked at the total poll summation
And it's just amazing how much the narrative of the entire Senate race in Colorado has been shaped by two pollsters, Rasmussen and PPP. While Rasmussen was slightly more prolific, they showed completely different results (with Ras being leaning GOP and PPP being much more pro-Bennet), with a few SUSA polls which showed between a tie and Buck+3, until mid September. Is the fact that Rasmussen now has it as a +2 Buck race, with a +3 Bennet internal actually really good news for us? It kind of seems we're at sitting at a tie, probably with some momentum to Bennet, given the narrowing enthusiasm gap and general dynamics of the campaign/race. This chart kind of makes me even more optimistic on this race. I have always thought we would win this race in the end after Buck won the primary (I think Norton would have had a much better chance, but still stood a good chance of losing). Buck making national headlines for some of his recent statements isn't good news any way you spin it, either.
[ Parent ]
On the polls
the last month, Bennet, Sestak, and Manchin have all released internals only to be met with silence.  Kirk didn't answer the more recent Giannoulias internal either.  actually Feingold released an internal and wasn't answered as well.  have a feeling these races are all now running a bit better for Dems than the public polling portrays.
[ Parent ]
Pollster seem very slow
Updating polls in lots of races. I'm talking about going back several weeks. They could with an audit before their final averages. I think PPP will have Alexi up when they release given the comment about Dems coming home across the country in their MO poll.
[ Parent ]
please vote Vermont at PPP
they'll do three east coast states.  In CT the only real race is malloy, where foley is, according to pollster, moving up pretty quickly, but the fundamentals still favor Malloy.  Deleware is a done deal, witch loses by double digits.  New York?  paladino loses by 20, or 30?  Maryland?  If there's any late mo for elrich, WAPO or rassy will poll it.  Maine I could see as it's an under polled tossup.  other people have been polling Georgia, as well as new hampshire.  please, no one has polled VT. please.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
You know what
I'm a big Hodes guy, but It seems that state is doing well in the ppp poll, I changed my to Vermont.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
NH
looks like a lock (I want CD's) so I voted Vermont and I'll vote for it at the office tomorrow. I will email some friends and have them vote for it as well. I am going to look like a political nerd for you Doug.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
thanks so much
If indiana, or whichever state you'd like is in the next batch, i'll be happy to support you there.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
CA-Gov: Meg Whitman direct-mails a 28-page magazine
When I saw it in my mailbox I thought for a moment I'd gotten my neighbor's copy of People by mistake.  Barf.  It's basically  "Jerry Brown's Legacy of Failure" versus "Meg Whitman's Plan for Creating Jobs."
Some people
 Who are really engaged AND have alot of time to kill might want to read through that but most voters do not have the time to do that if they are not interested in politics. Whitman needs to stick the small talking points that get people's attention.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
My experience
Is the people who read that sort of thing are already in one camp or another. For one side it is the echo chamber mentality while the other spends an hour or two tearing each and every sentence apart.
[ Parent ]
Save it.
It could be a collector's item some day, as a reminder of eMeg's failure. Spending $150,000,000 and up and losing.

I am SO hoping her loss will be an object lesson to future billionaires about trying to buy into elected office. Not every one can do it like for example Bloomberg.

[ Parent ]
A
Newsweek article talking about why super wealthy candidates fail said that Bloomberg's key to success was not relying on money bombing the airwaves, but building up a GOTV infrastructure and building bridges with activists. Basically it's nice to say you're not bought and paid by no one, but you need other people to help pull you across the finish line.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I think
You are very right. Whitman's problem seems to be she over-saturated the airwaves, and made people hate her since they saw her ads so much. If she had, at this point, spent maybe 50 million, I think she'd be in a dead heat, instead of down 6.  
[ Parent ]
Naw, I think
Whitman is just a bad candidate. Voters just don't like her on a personal level. It's the same thing that happened to John Edwards and Mitt Romney in 2008.

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
Plus
Whitman tacked hard right during the primary to beat Poizner. Then she flipped quickly back to the center. Flip flopper anyone?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Anybody Else Think That Jack Conway.....
....just turned a five-point defeat into a 20-point defeat?
No

[ Parent ]
No.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
It
could go either way.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He will not lose 60-40 whatever happens

[ Parent ]
Agree.
If this ad goes completely horribly then I could see him losing by ten. Honestly the coverage has been fairly neutral and coverage had Conway looking very good after the debate. My guess is that the race will be close.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Nope.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Not when Democrats are poised to make up 48% of the electorate


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
No


28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
To repeat the others, no


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yes
I guess he felt he needed to take a risk to get over the top... With great risk comes great reward, but I think this one is falling into the "former" category.
[ Parent ]
No
Though I'v said before that I think democrats are going to do better in the house then in the senate Comparatively because of localization of races. So I don't think much  of Conway's chances in the first place. Having said that, nothing Conway did in the last 72 hours has worked towards Paul's favor. An I don't think that this race is any more likely to end up Republican than before.
[ Parent ]
No, I think he turned a 10-point loss into a 12 to 14-point loss.
Going after the "Aqua Buddha" stuff tells me that Conway is down by 10 and has no idea how to make up the gap, so he's throwing whatever he can think of at Paul and hope something sticks. I think it'll backfire and benefit Paul, like the Elizabeth Dole "Godless" ad did.
[ Parent ]
Agreed

[ Parent ]
Not True.
Conway was not down ten points. I would say more in the 4 point range. He has always been close but never over. He needed something to put him over. If he ran the campaign he was running he would have performed decently but not won. He needed something to put him over the top. I would agree that this was probably not it though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Surprisingly, nobody's polled it this month
but Rasmussen had it at Paul +11 last month, and PPP had Paul +7. The only result that was close was SUSA's Paul +2, which was obviously an outlier.
[ Parent ]
SUSA
was not an outlier, Braun came out with a poll that corroborated its results soon after. Also CNN-Times had it tied (albeit with rv's).  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
cn2-Braun
have it: 43R/40D. Pretty close.

I believe that's the most recent poll.
http://politics.mycn2.com/wp-c...

[ Parent ]
20 points? No. 12 points? Maybe
I do think it was a pretty distasteful ad, but then I'm not a Christian, so maybe it'll play better in Kentucky. Still, Conway was just on TV getting smacked by Chris Matthews, of all people, over it.
[ Parent ]
Which means what, exactly?
I think Matthews is unfairly bashed a lot of the time, but I highly doubt anybody is basing their vote on what he thinks.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I mean that Chris Matthews is a liberal Democrat, and so I was surprised to see him go after Conway
nm
[ Parent ]
Matthews voted for Bush in '00 and Michael Steele in '06


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Mathews
is not a liberal dem. I watch his show every night. He is very moderate (He voted for Michael Steele) and is hard on Democrats all the time.  That's why they call his show hardball. I would have been surprised if he would have not gone after him. Conway did well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Matthews
is more blue collar than liberal in my opinion. And isn't his brother a Republican?

By the way, where is that Rasmussen poll showing Conway down 20? You would think he would push through a one night poll in order to show Conway's ad backfiring. Also the main difference between how Hagan and Paul handled attacks on their faith was that Hagan went out swinging hard. She even filmed an ad telling Dole to stop bearing false witness on her. Paul is acting like a crybaby who had his toys taken away from him by his parents.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Wait for it...
I be the Ras poll will come out tomorrow...
[ Parent ]
His
brother was the R nominee for LG in PA in 2006. Actually Paul has a similar ad. Don't know whether it will be effective or not. Paul did not handel the issue well in the debate though. He did come out looking like a crybaby.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Let
me just say I agree with your first point. As a Christian I do not like this ad much. However being as un objective as I can I do not think you have seen a lot of negative Conway coverage resulting like you saw with Dole. It has been give a lot of attention but I have my doubts whether it really hurts or helps Conway much. As for the CM interview, he did not get smacked. He held up well. Despite what some on the right think CM is a very tough interviewer who asks hard hitting questions and Conway held his ground well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sink 45-38
Nice! n/t

[ Parent ]
The internals look very good for Sink
Favorable/Unfavorable:
Sink: 40/40
Scott: 25/53

Run the most negative campaign:
Sink: 23
Scott: 42

Governor vote by Senate vote:
Meek voters: 86-7 for Sink
Crist voters: 72-17 for Sink
Rubio voters: 77-7 for Scott

Sink is leading in all regions except North Florida (Panhandle) and in all age groups except those 65-74.

In the Senate race, even if Meek dropped out, Rubio would still win by 5%, so there appears to be no path to victory for Crist.

The sample does seem to have a slight Dem bias (42% Dem, 36% GOP, 22% Other/Ind).

Link to Marginals:
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...

Link to Crosstabs (very detailed):
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...

[ Parent ]
Early voting started last Saturday in NM, I just voted
Given that Denish is likely to lose (sigh) the real races for me are NM-01 and NM-02 (NM-03 is a big sleeper IMHO).

First the good news, NM-01 should stay with the Democrats (after having Republican representation for my entire life, I'm owed a lot more than two years of a good Democrat!) If Barela wants to pull off an upset against Heinrich, he'll need to keep it extremely close (or outright win) the Bernalillo County part of the district (ie Albuquerque proper) and rack up huge margins in the outlying parts of the rest the district which are generally a lot more Republican than Albuquerque (for a good comparison, the 2006 midterm is a very good place to look, Heather Wilson's margin of victory came from scoring large margins in the parts Santa Fe and Torrance counties with in the district, as well as winning Valencia and keeping it close in Sandoval). All that said, I'm very confident that Heinrich wins, he's run a solid (though not spectacular) campaign while Barela, while not a horrible choice, is still not a particularly strong pick for this district (I think Darren White could have won had run this year instead of 2008 in all honesty).

The bad news is, despite Steve Pearce's poor campaign and Harry Teague's excellent campaign, I don't think Teague holds on this year. NM-02 is a reflexively Republican district in a reflexively Republican year. One big wild-card is going to be the Hispanic vote down south. Unlike the rest of the state, the Hispanic vote in southern New Mexico is mostly new immigrants, so the drop-off in turnout among Hispanics is going to be felt hardest here (which is unfortunate for Teague) but given Susana Martinez's campaign, it's hard to say what will happen, I can very easily see a lot of Martinez/Teague voters (especially among Hispanics) but not a lot of Denish/Pearce voters (even though Denish, Teague, and Pearce live in Hobbs).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

NM
I pretty much agree with what you said. I hope that Heinrich can pull it off. I think it's about 40% chance that Teague can pull it out for the reasons that you outlined. I did my part and sent emails begging my family members who are usually apathetic to vote. Interesting question for you is what do you think happens if Heinrich wins and Bingaman retires in 2012 (he'll be 72 and a 5 termer). Would Heinrich run for that seat as he is certainly young enough? If he did would it setup a showdown with Ben Lujan who is also young enough?

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Honestly, I think Heinrich could
And more to the point, I think Heinrich would be favored in that contest. I don't want to trash Lujan or anything, he's been a pretty decent congressman, but he's both less popular than Heinrich and can't really appeal to more moderate/conservative Democrats in Bernalillo and in southern New Mexico (though he does have a good base of support in the Hispanic vote).

I could see a scenario where Teague (win or lose) runs for the open seat too, and he's got a very attractive profile to run statewide from (a base in the heavily Republican southeast, a relatively moderate image, and a strong campaigner).

I don't know who would run on the Republican side though. Richard Berry could run or maybe Heather Wilson takes another stab at it (in some ways, Wilson was lucky that Pearce beat her, she might have done better than Pearce statewide, but Udall still would've beaten her by 10-15 points).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Talk Business' final round of Arkansas polling
http://www.talkbusiness.net/ar...

AR-01: Rick Crawford (R) leads Chad Causey (D) 42-34.
AR-02: Tim Griffin (R) leads Joyce Elliot (D) 50-38.
AR-03: Steve Womack (R) leads David Whitaker (D) 59-21.
AR-04: Mike Ross (D) leads Beth Anne Rankin (R) 52-34.

No real surprises

[ Parent ]
Not true, AR-04 is a SHOCKER since Mark already called it for Rankin. I think ACORN...
...rigged it.  Yes I know they're no more, but they rigged it from the grave!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Yeah, AR-01 was gone as soon as the primary was over
Leave Elliot to her own devices.

They still have a prayer in AR-02 though.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
I think you meant to reverse that
We're still in it in AR-01 and AR-02 is gone

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Oops
Yes, that's what I meant.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Good poll for Crawford
He doesn't even need to release his own internal now to combat the Causey internal from earlier today that had D+2.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Bayh still sitting on $10 million
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Asshole

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

Governor

[ Parent ]
He's still an asshole
If he had half of that amount he'd still have a huge leg-up on everyone else and it's not like he can't fundraise on his own.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Governor Asshole
Has a certain ring to it!
[ Parent ]
Hill
could really use that money. I swear if Hill loses by less than 3 or 4 points then he should run for Governor just to spite Bayh who could have saved him with an extra mil or so. He won't do it though, party unity and what not.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Perhaps.
But if he wants to be governor, isn't it also likely that he wants to make a run for president in 2016, when there could very well be another open contest on the Democratic side as well as the Republican side? He'll be 60, which is a pretty good age to be when you want to run.

If that's the case, it's strange that he's not spending any money now to help his fellow Democrats. His opponent will have some good material to work with. The attack ad almost writes itself.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He would never in a million years get nominated...
...for president, not with the way he's treated the Democratic base and the party as a whole over the years.
[ Parent ]
Probably not.
After all, as someone said above, he could have given away half of that money, still had and overwhelming advantage, and yet still raised more, but he chose to keep it all. Sharp political minds make mistakes, but either he has some internal issues or he's just politically stupid.

I still he wants to give it a run, however. Plus, he's always going to be brought up as a vice presidential contender. He's becoming the new San Nunn.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Internal issues...
He never got over his dad's loss in 1980 and has internalized it ever since.  He will always follow the "safe" route, and blow with whatever political way the winds are blowing.  He's hoarding his money 'cos he needs it as a safety net.  Not once has this man ever taken a political risk.  I doubt he ever will.
[ Parent ]
Well….
Running against Frank O'Bannon was a bit of a risk. He talked O'Bannon into being his running mate but a lot of people thought he could have lost had O'Bannon not dropped out of the primary to be his LG. Probably not but we will never know. And the 1988 campaign was no lock in the GE either.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Two
weeks left until the election. Yet still no publicly released Hill V Young poll. I thought WHAS or WISH would commission one but no. We will probably not see any.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I was watching the hour long endorsement interview the Courier Journal did with Hill
Back around the start of the month, I think, was when they did it. Hill claimed towards the end that his polling was showing him in a good position, but he wouldn't elaborate. Wasn't sure what to make of that, really.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I
sort of know someone who works for the state party. Not well but we have ran into each other a lot before and I practically begged her to tell me the internals. She (wisely) would not tell me anything. Although she did say that she felt fairly confident. I don't know what to think. The DCCC is spending more than the Republicans here so they have not written Hill off. We'll know in two weeks.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I spoke
to some of the Hill staffers at the Bloomington office. They are also somewhat confident. They told me it's all about GOTV. It's somewhere between Toss-up and lean Democrat.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
My House expectations...
...for the first two hours poll closing on Election Night. See if this sounds about right. I'm only predicting Dem seats that could go Repub.

6:00PM EDT closings: KY (Eastern time zone), IN (Eastern time zone)

KY-3 stays D
KY-6 stay D
IN-9 goes R

7:00PM EDT closings: KY (Central time zone), IN (Central time zone), FL (Eastern time zone), Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

IN-2 stays D
IN-8 goes R
FL-8 goes R
FL-22 stays D
FL-24 goes R
GA-2 stays D
GA-8 stays D
GA-12 stays D
SC-5 goes R
VA-2 goes R
VA-5 goes R
VA-9 stays D
VA-11 stays D

7:30PM EDT closings: North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio

NC-7 stays D
NC-8 stays D
NC-11 stays D
WV-1 stays D
OH-1 goes R
OH-6 stays D
OH-13 stays D
OH-15 goes R
OH-16 goes R
OH-18 stays D

So. Too optimistic? About right? What?

I'd take it in a heartbeat.
Agree with you 100% on everything except IN-09, and that is only because I have no friggin' clue how that one will go down.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
IN-09
It could be the "canary in the coal mine" this year. It's likely to be one of the first competitve races called, much like KY-03 was back in 2006.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Yet
no polling done for us.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I expect IN-08 will go first
since the Dems have pretty much given up on it.

Now, if IN-02 or KY-06 get called for the Republican, Democrats should go ahead get the whiskey off the shelf and drink.

[ Parent ]
Different Time Zones
We will probably know IN-9 before IN-8. Unless its really close of course.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Eh?
All of Indiana (except for the Cook County, IL suburbs) is in the Eastern time zone.
[ Parent ]
The south western portion
of Indiana is in the Central Time Zone.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Several counties in the southwest part of the state are on Central as well


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but that one's been conceded
Republicans are going to win it whether they take 20, 40, or 60 seats. IN-09 is going to be a better barometer, as Republicans will be off to a great start if Young wins. If KY-03 or KY-06 falls, that would be an early sign of a tsunami, but that's not likely to happen.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
IN-09
 Has been a bellwether in recent years. In 2004, it barely voted for Sordel, Republicans retained the house and Bush won the presidency. In 2006, the Democrats made a 30 seat gain and won Sordel's seat by 5 points. In 2008, Hill won in the double digits as Democrats made even more gains and Obama almost won the district.

This seat is the one you will need to watch if you want to know who controls the house.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
It's been awhile, and I've forgotten
how quickly they release the totals for individual districts. I remember watching the totals during election night in 2008 and thinking how some states, like Kentucky, that were slow to release their results could only mean good things for Obama. House results are obviously a lot different than doing a whole state, so is there any way to get a quick read on how the night might go? Obviously, sharp results in one direction or another--like the Democrats losing every contested race--would signal it's going to be a bloodbath, but I doubt it's going to be that clear.

One thing: why do you think Spratt is going down? Hasn't he survived worse years for Democrats in South Carolina than this? Even if Finke wins the governorship, it doesn't look like a blowout on the level of Cuomo and Paladino in New York.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
In the case of Spratt in SC...
and Hill in IN, I will admit that my calls are mostly assuming the worst is going to happen. In IN-9, I suspect the Republican, Young, is going to win based upon his local fundraising. As SC-5 goes, I have absolutely no idea how that one's going to go.

And you're right about the time its going to take for the districts to report. I assume there's not going to be any exit polling of House races, so the main news media will be waiting for precincts to be reported by wire services (the AP probably). So I'm not necessarily saying that these races will get called in their respected hours (KY-6 wont necessarily get called between 6 and 7PM), but it's reasonable to expect them to get called in the order that their polls closed, even if it's delayed a while.  

[ Parent ]
Mostly agree
except I don't think there's any real indicator that SC-5 will go R, and I'm undecided about IN-9.
[ Parent ]
WA-Sen: Looks like another small Murray lead in tomorrow's PPP survey
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

They already give away that Murray leads, but find that, by a 47-46 margin, Washington voters want Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate this year. Rossi's favorables are 44/49. My hunch is Murray has a 2-point lead.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I think it might be a bit higher
the way they teased the poll by claiming flat out that Murray leads. Maybe 3 or 4 points.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
I'm guessing six points.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
The preview is pretty negative
re: Rossi's numbers, so your expectations seem a little too high for him.

Dino Rossi isn't usually thought of as one of the weak Republican candidates this year along the lines of the Christine O'Donnells, Sharron Angles, and Joe Millers of the world but when you see voters in Washington wanting a Republican Senate but not wanting Dino you may as well add him to the list. And his favorability numbers are pretty poor with 49% of voters having an unfavorable opinion of him to only 44% who see him positively.

[ Parent ]
Rossi IS
kind of a dick. I've always felt he's acting badly, that he's not be fully forthcoming about how he really feels.

I don't just say this because he's GOP. I genuinely like a number of Rs around the country, as people - for example, while Huckabee, Daniels, Rand Paul, Chris Christie are all conservative (in some cases very conservative), all come off as fairly forthright and/or genuinely nice people to me. I wouldn't say this about Rossi.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Agreed, except for Paul
after this

http://videocafe.crooksandliar...

Rossi doesn't seem interested in being a Senator. Cornyn needed to drag Rossi kicking and screaming into the Senate race.

[ Parent ]
You Think Chris Christie Seems Like a Nice Person?
I can't think of a bigger sewer rat.  He just spoke on behalf of Terry Branstad in Iowa and I found him to be an absolutely despicable human being.
[ Parent ]
Not nice
but forthright.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Considering how they phrase it...
...it sounds like Murray's lead is actually bigger, since they feel it is such a contrast to what voters supposedly want in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
CA-Gov: Contra Costa Times backs Whitman
http://www.contracostatimes.co...

Is this one a surprise? I could swear this is a left-leaning paper, and I know they backed Obama in '08.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

its mixed
They oppose Prop 23 (the dirty oil initative, good) but they oppose Prop 24 (ending corporate tax breaks, bad). They seem to be economically centrist, moderate on the environment socially liberal from reading their endorsements. Aka, they're in the center most likely.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
At least
 Brown seems to have a lead now with even Rasmussen giving him a 6 point lead.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Hurt 46 Perriello 40 in Roanoke College poll
Fivethirtyeight Senate forecast updated
looks like float from last week.  still only 17% chance of Republican takeover, and average of 51.9 dem seats.
Nate
keeps switching the days of the week on which the updates take place. Last week, senate update was on Tuesday night.
[ Parent ]
And actually,
he's been doing governor first most weeks. Wonder why the switch...
[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Roland Burris considering run
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-...

I suspect there are at least half a dozen other black candidates the Chicago Coalition would rather back, though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

May god have mercy on our souls

[ Parent ]
Did he update
his tombstone yet?
[ Parent ]
Bagged a voter today.
I got a young Pennsylvania Democrat to send out her absentee ballot application today.  She failed to vote in 2008.  So...eat THAT enthusiasm gap!  Sadly, her residence is just barely outside Mark Critz's district and she will have to vote hopelessly for Tim Murphy's opponent (PA-18).  

24, Male, GA-05
Wha?!
How in the hell did a young person not vote in 2008. lol
[ Parent ]
Dunno.
    She was studying at a liberal arts college too.  I physically handed her the absentee ballot having printed it out myself.  I am guess no one did that for her in 2008.  They should have at least registered her to vote at her campus address...

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
It is Great to see
 You out there volunteering. At least she will be able to vote in the Senate race and help Sestak though. Yesterday in California, I made alot of calls to young Democratic voters to encourage them to vote. Many of them were planning to vote but had not looked into the candidates. Most of them seem to be leaning Democratic.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Dude, you did good, Critz is fine, but Sestak needs her and thanks you! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I did
some phonebanking this weekend for the first time ever, and it was a great experience. Managed to sway 2 Dem voters who weren't going to vote for Brown to vote for him. :)

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
That's Great!
 I have not talked to that many undecideds. I usually talk to voters who are not sure if they will vote. Sometimes, I get those people and they are like "Oh right, election day is coming." I got one guy who thought that since all the politicians had money and he did not, he should not vote for any of them. He hung up before I could tell him that Whitman was the one with the money though.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Utah
Why do Democrats even bother running anyone in Utah?  To that state's citizens, they may as well be the Green Party or the Socialists.
Matheson n/t

[ Parent ]
Maybe it is one of those
states that is just out of reach for the current Democratic party, but you have to wonder what would happen if there was an investment in party building. I wouldn't expect it to suddenly become a swing state, but perhaps there are a potential voters waiting to become registered Democrats.

A better question: why didn't the Democrats approach Bob Bennett about switching? I can't imagine that Utah is home to a large number of progressives, and while he's certainly a conservative, is he really that much more conservative than, say, Ben Nelson or Mark Pryor? Or would his personal appeal just not matter in the state?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Yes, he's really that much more conservative
Just look at his voting record!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Allen West supporters
threaten Klein videographer. They look like bikers to me. Outlaws perhaps?


First Lady stumps for Blumenthal
in Stamford, CT:


Michelle is especially good on the stump...
in races where the GOP opponent is a woman.  
[ Parent ]
Completely besides the point, but for
a woman is who is approaching 50, she looks incredible. She's a prime example of what a healthy lifestyle can do for you.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yes!
...as I chew on my fourth slice of white clam pizza with bacon.
[ Parent ]
That sounds...
Delicious.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
It is!
Essentially Clams Casino - on a pizza.
[ Parent ]
If Kirk wins, I'd like to see Michelle run against him in 2016.

[ Parent ]
Daily Kos should have an Oregon poll out this week


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Markos tweeted today it'll be out tomorrow (Tuesday). (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
NY-Gov: A third-party candidate, Jimmy McMillan, stole the show at tonight's debate
The rent...
is too damn high!

Hysterical.

[ Parent ]
No more nebulous campaign promises
that don't affect people's lives.

Somebody needs to lower the damn rent.

[ Parent ]
TRITDH
I would totally vote for The Rent Is Too Damn High Party if it were on the ballot down here.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
How many times
did Carl Paladino tell Cuomo to fuck himself?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Paladino didn't really confront Cuomo at all
He stayed completely on-message. (Shocking, I know.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Which means
he's bound to tell someone to fuck themselves by the end of the week.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Jimmy McMillan's beard should go into the beard hall of fame
And the rent IS too damn high.
[ Parent ]
What PPP polls are coming this week?
Besides WA Sen, anyone know?

WA-07, 34 years old
Illinois and North Carolina
They unfortunately continue to poll their home state monthly, despite the lack of competitive races there.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
It's kind of unfortunate...
we will see the same tired commentary of how if Marshall was running a decent campaign and had money she might win, but Burr keeps on pulling out, and maybe Marshall can pull off a victory and whatever else...

We could use something out of NC-07, NC-08, NC-02, and NC-11.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
My calculations on NC-Sen always take me aback
Right now, my current voter model here actually shows a competitive race...

Democrat - 44%
GOP - 37%
Independent - 19%

Burr - 14/96/57 = 53%
Marshall - 86/4/43 = 47%

I suppose Burr might well be over 60% with Indies, but is he really siphoning-off upwards of 20% of Democrats? I just can't fathom this.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
The last PPP poll
had Burr with 20% of Democrats. Civitas had 26% of Democrats voting for Burr. The last SurveyUSA poll had 27% of Democrats voting for Burr.

I think this is possible.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I looked up the 2004 exit polls
According to MSNBC, the electorate was 40R/39D/21I. Bush won independents by 15 and took 16% of Democrats en route to a 57-43 victory. They didn't have Burr-Bowles numbers, and that was a presidential year, so I don't know how helpful that is.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
NC-Sen exit poll from 2004 right here!
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Burr-Bowles...
...had a pretty close race that year, 52%-47%.

Is it wishful thinking that Marshall could win over Burr? Probably. But this line of reasoning of examining the eventual outcome by the party breakdown of the early voters so far is interesting.

[ Parent ]
What's more...
It has pretty serious implications for Reps. Shuler, McIntyre, and Kissell.

If Democrats had nominated Cal Cunningham, I think this one would be really tight.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Cunningham had even less money than Marshall
Marshall is in this position because she has no money. This is exactly like OH-Sen, the candidate we have is a bad fundraiser, the alternative candidate was even worse at fundraising!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
They probably have a strong in-state audience......
I bet they have quite a few in-state clients, and polling NC monthly is just part of maintaining in-state interest in their work and keeping business steady.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
WV senate debate was tonight....
...everyone was nice/nice.. Seems to me that Manchin should have hit Raese more especially on his out-of-state ties, but it didn't happen.  Manchin was awfully apologetic about Democratic policies, too... thought he would separate himself from national dems more.. While that makes me happy as a dem, I hope that won't hurt him at the polls.. He does know his state, though.. so, he should know what would work.

Some conservative outfit has a poll out tonight with Raese winning 49-47, so Manchin is still probably leading in real life.

Looking over the press clippings...
...it appears that Raese won the debate... that stinks... Manchin actually comes off like a Democrat, which is great for the party, but not so great at getting elected in WV.
[ Parent ]
That's
That's my read on it as well.  Plus, the Constitution Party candidate came across like a nut - he won't siphon off many votes from Raese, but the environmentalist Mountain Party candidate did quite well.  He could take some votes out of Manchin's hide.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Raese...
I think he wins, Democrats hold onto Washington, California, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois, and Raese gets primaried by Rep. Capito during the regular election in 2012. Capito would beat him handily; Raese is a terrible candidate, and the only reason I think he'll win is because Gov. Manchin has a (D) after his name and it's West goddamn Virginia.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Raese has made many mis-steps.
I think Manchin will probably win.  Wanting to eliminate the minimum wage will NOT play well in WV.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I don't really like Gov. Manchin...
But I hope you're right, because unlike the SEIU (thanks for screwing Rep. Space, guys), I recognize that at a time when the GOP is this far to the right, a conservative Democrat is better than a very conservative Republican.

It's just an awfully tempting "win"-"win" for West Virginians to elect Raese to Senate and get to keep Manchin in Charleston, where he's broadly adored.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Maybe
I don't really care about this race, but I will - somewhat dispassionately say - that debates in non-Pres contests (even in Pres races) don't matter much unless someone commits a big gaffe or something.

Speaking as a 34 year old political junkie, I don't think I've ever seen a non-Presidential debate in US politics. I doubt less engaged voters care much either.  

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Despite
Him doubling down on no minimum wage?
[ Parent ]
Pity
Pity that The Rent Is Too Damn High Party isn't running a candidate in WV.  But perhaps the rents in WV are low?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I guess someone could try starting a "The Rent Is Too Damn Low Party"
But I don't know how well that would work. I think there's a low electoral ceiling for that kind of an agenda, frankly.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Mildred Jefferson has died
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10...

The first black woman to graduate from Harvard Medical School, she later became a staunch pro-life activist and ran three times for the GOP nomination for Massachusetts U.S. Senate. (On each try, she failed to win the nomination.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

CA-47: Tran tied in own internal
38-38, with a 5.7% margin of error. I think Sanchez will be fine.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
No one over 40, 2 weeks out
yeah, Sanchez is fine. If it was 44-44 I'd be worried. 38-38, the likely voter screen bias is showing.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
What was the deal with her comment
about Vietnamese people taking the seat? I've liked seeing her on television and generally remember hearing positive things about her. Everyone makes mistakes, but that's a pretty ugly one.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
WA-3: NRA Ad
Heard my first ad on the radio today from the WA-3 race, NRA sponsored ad for Herrera basically stating "she'll protect our 2nd Amendment Rights and stand up to Nancy Pelosi."  First ad i've seen or heard from that race in the Seattle area.  Seemed an odd use of resources as I would think most of the district is outside the range of the station, plus I suspect the demographics of this station (contemporary & classic rock) didn't strike me as the sort too be too concerned about gun rights.
Michigan AG Race
Apparently, a citizen ally of Republican Bill Schuette in the Michigan AG race who did a commercial for Schuette attacking her opponent, David Leyton, made an anti-Semitic posting on some local papers board.  Leyton is Jewish.  He's demanding an apology, which I don't see playing well even if she's totally in the wrong.  

This all started when Schuette found this woman -- whose son was murdered and David Leyton didn't initially prosecute the case I guess citing lack of evidence or something.  Eventually, the current GOP state AG was able to bring charges and the case was eventually reopened.

Leyton is down in the polls (he's far less well known than his opponent).  Maybe, this will get him some name recognition?

Q: Kasich by 10
I'll admit
I'll admit that when I saw Kasich's numbers slipping a few weeks ago, I thought that Strickland might have put together a surge and that if he could get it close, his turnout machine could do the rest, but it looks like Kasich beat it back.  I wonder if this is just a case of ads doing the work or if other things inside OH are affecting this dynamic?  As long as Kasich maintains these sort of numbers, I'd say he's safe.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Michigan Voter Registration Numbers
Michigan voter registration numbers show that 95.5% of those of voting age are registered, now.  That's a one percentage point increase from the 2006 gubernatorial election.  The turnout in 2006 was 50.7%, which was the highest turnout since the 1970 gubernatorial election.

The general feeling around here is that the turnout is going to be abysmal, this year, but I'm really thinking we're going to be seeing a surprise.  At least, that's my expressed wish.

As Michigan doesn't register voters by party, it's always really hard to tell who has the edge.  But in 2008, 34% of Michigan voters indentified as Democrats, and 24% as Republicans.

Jensen
"We're going to have a poll that's a bit of a game changer out around 10 this morning. Not saying what state..."

They polled WA, IL and NC over the weekend. They said yesterday Murray is ahead so I'm guessing it must either be Alexi up big, Quinn ahead or Marshall close.

Kirk up big is the only other possibilty
But that doesn't jibe with what they said about their findings showing Dems coming home across the country.
[ Parent ]
In order of likelihood
(1) Giannoulias and/or Quinn surging in IL
(2) Kirk surging in IL
(3) Marshall surging in NC

I would almost categorically rule out the third given the trajectory of the race.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Might
It might even be another state?  One that we didn't know that they polled?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Possible

[ Parent ]
Yeah, they're definitely polling quite a bit for paying clients right now. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It's Sestak
   He has a 46-45 lead on Toomey.  It's fun to see all the nutcases assailing PPP on the website.  PPP is the pollster to beat.  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I'd bet right now
On November 3rd, PPP will be declared one of the biggest winners of the cycle.  
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Afternoon Edition) | 306 comments

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