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Weekend Poll Dump: Senate, Gov, and Other Miscellany

by: jeffmd

Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 2:25 PM EDT


AK-Sen: National Research, Inc. for the Club for Growth (10/8-9, likely voters):
Scott McAdams (D): 27
Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc): 31
Joe Miller (R): 33
(MoE: ±4.9%)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov, Prop 23: Ipsos for Reuters (10/12-14, likely voters, 10/2-4 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)
Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (45)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)
Meg Whitman (R): 44 (43)

Yes on 23: 35
No on 23: 46
(MoE: ±4.6%)

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

Dan Malloy (D): 49 (45)
Tom Foley (R): 42 (42)
(MoE: ±2.9%)

FL-Gov: Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (10/12-13, likely voters, 9/28-10/3 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 48 (44)
Rick Scott (R): 44 (50)
(MoE: ±2.2%)

HI-Gov: Aloha Vote for Honolulu Civil Beat (10/11, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 47
Duke Aiona (R): 44
(MoE: ±2.9%)

KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Survey USA for KWCH-TV (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Tom Holland (D): 32 (32)
Sam Brownback (R): 60 (59)
Andrew Gray (L): 3 (3)
Ken Cannon (Ref): 4 (4)

Lisa Johnston (D): 27 (24)
Jerry Moran (R): 67 (66)
Michael Dann (L): 2 (2)
Joe Bellis (Ref): 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)

For SoS, Dems trail 35-53; for State Treasurer, it's 39-55. For Attorney General, appointed Dem Steve Six trails Derek Schmidt 40-48.

MA-Gov: Suffolk University (10/10-12, registered voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 46 (41)
Charlie Baker (R): 39 (34)
Tim Cahill (I): 10 (14)
Jill Stein (G): 1 (4)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-Gov: Critical Insights for Maine Today Media (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29 (33)
Paul LePage (R): 34 (33)
Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (10)
Shawn Moody (I): 7 (6)
Kevin Scott (I): 1 (-)
(MoE: ±4.0%)

MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 42 (38)
Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)
Tom Horner (IP): 14 (18)
Other: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, 9/23-29 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 35 (35)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)
Other: 3 (2)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: Mason-Dixon for the LVRJ (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 45 (43)
Sharron Angle (R): 47 (43)
Other: 2 (2)
NOTA: 2 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 37 (37)
Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (51)
Other: 2 (3)
NOTA: 1 (2)
(MoE: ±4%)

NV-Gov: Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 43 (38)
Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (52)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

NV-Gov: Suffolk University (10/8-11, likely voters, in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 39
Brian Sandoval (R): 50
Other: 2
NOTA: 3
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bonus findings: Incumbent LG Brian Krolicki (R) leads Dem Jessica Sferrazza 42-30, Dem SoS Ross Miller leads 40-24, Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall trails 33-38, and Dem Controller Kim Wallin leads 31-26.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, WHEC-TV, and WNYT-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 59 (57)
Carl Paladino (R): 33 (34)
Other: 6 (5)

Chuck Schumer (D): 63 (60)
Jay Townsend (R): 30 (30)
Other: 4 (6)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 54 (54)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 36 (35)
Other: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Manhattan/Bronx state Senator Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Staten Island DA Dan Donovan (R) for Attorney General 44-40, down from 46-40 a week ago.

OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Poll(10/8-13, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)
Rob Portman (R): 58 (55)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (45)
John Kasich (R): 51 (49)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK-Sen: Sooner Poll (10/3-7, likely voters):

Jim Rogers (D): 22
Tom Coburn (R-inc): 62
Other: 2
(MoE: ±5.2%)

Other results here find the GOP leading for all statewide offices: 40-28 for LG, 50-30 for Attorney General, 41-35 for Insurance Commissioner, 45-31 for Treasurer, 35-32 for State Superintendent, 44-33 for Labor Commissioner, and 41-35 for Auditor/Inspector. Dems had held most of these offices, if you'll recall.

OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

John Kitzhaber (D): 46 (43)
Chris Dudley (R): 45 (49)
Greg Kord (C): 4 (3)
Wes Wagner (L): 3 (2)

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 56 (54)
Jim Huffman (R): 34 (38)
Bruce Cronk (WF): 2 (3)
Marc Delphine (L): 2 (1)
Rick Staggenborg (P): 2 (0)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

PA-Gov: Magellan (10/10, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 38 (38)
Tom Corbett (R): 48 (50)
(MoE: ±2.3%)

VT-Sen, VT-Gov, VT-AL: Mason-Dixon for Vermont Public Radio (10/11-13, registered voters):

Patrick Leahy (D-inc): 62
Len Britton (R): 27
Other: 4

Peter Shumlin (D): 43
Brian Dubie (R): 44
Other: 5

Peter Welch (D): 61
Paul Beaudry (R): 25
Other: 4
(MoE: ±4%)

WA-Sen: Washington Poll (10/5-14, registered voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50
Dino Rossi (R): 42
(MoE: ±4.3%)

WA-Sen: SurveyUSA for KING-TV (10/11-14, likely voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (50)
Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
jeffmd :: Weekend Poll Dump: Senate, Gov, and Other Miscellany
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Weekend Poll Dump: Senate, Gov, and Other Miscellany | 75 comments
Some good numbers in here...
Particularly nice to see Kitzhaber, Sink, and Dayton pulling into stronger positions.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Lee Fisher is melting!


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
No kidding
Ohio was always going to be a tough state for any Democrat in this environment, but at the outset I really thought Fisher had a chance, given how corporate Portman is.  But he's running the risk now of not making it to 40%!
[ Parent ]
It's Money
Portman is absolutely crushing Fisher financially.  
[ Parent ]
All the democratic money in Ohio is going back Strickland

With Strickland in serious trouble, Fisher has not chance of raise enough.
[ Parent ]
And he's an anchor to Strickland.
It's Strickland's own fault considering he pushed for Fisher during his primary.  Brunner would at least have brought energy to the campaign and probably brought out a segment of voters who will likely sit this election out given the top of the ticket is bland and uninspiring.  

Lee Fisher is the worst candidate the Dems are running this cycle.  He completely laid an egg and looks completely disinterested, and hardly campaigning.  

[ Parent ]
what does it say about Brunner
that she couldn't beat him in the Democratic primary, couldn't raise any money and didn't bring out enough of segment of the voters who would have voted for her in the Democratic primary.  
[ Parent ]
What does it say
About Fisher that he couldn't soundly defeat Brunner. It wasn't at all a blowout.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
55% to 45%
with two statewide elected officials. Look, who cares. Brunner lost and Ohio is going to be a killer field for Democrats this November. Neither Brunner nor Fisher is going to win.  
[ Parent ]
I think this is not consequence of Fisher victory in the primaries

I think the financial troubles for Fisher comes when Strickland begin to have bad polls. While Strickland was ahead Fisher raise decent money, but when Strickland lose the leading position in the polls all the democratic money in Ohio goes back Strickland. Logical.

[ Parent ]
Anyone else think Brunner would've been a much stronger candidate?
Not that she'd pull within single-digits, let alone actually win, but at least the base adores her. Who can get fired-up among Lee Fisher?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Nope
Primaries are "base votes"

Less than 50% of the base chose her. So, no. Actually let me change that, to "HAHAHAHAHAHA HELL NO!"

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
You're saying "the base" is only 45% of primary voters in Ohio? Well that's some great turnout among...
...non-base Democrats.

I just marvel that some Brunner fans so cavalierly dismiss how horrific a primary campaign she ran and the fact she lost to Fisher decisively.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yes, but you're forgetting that she lost less decisively than she was supposed to!
:D

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
::sigh::
My heart goes out to Brunner nonetheless
[ Parent ]
Why on earth are we having this ridiculous debate
nearly half a year after the damn primary?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Lee Fisher is without a doubt the worst statewide candidate we have this year.
Has his campaign done anything right?

I guess the one benefit of him losing is (or I hope!) he won't be back for something else.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Makes me wonder
how well Brunner would have done. She had very little money, but still managed to come within a couple of points. Too bad will never know.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
No not a "couple points," she lost the primary by TEN after a HORRIBLE campaign. So...
...it's a given she'd be at least a big a disaster now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I wonder how Tim Ryan would have done
I think Portman's finances made it impossible for any Democrat to win or even draw NRSC funds, but I think Ryan could have made this a single digit game.  He was more inspiring than Brunner and obviously a better campaigner than Fischer and his populism would have been a nice counterbalance to a Bush crony. But I guess giving up a spot on Appropriations was too much for him

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Ryan will have time for run in better years

Sure.
[ Parent ]
He's probably glad as hell
he didnt bother running this year.
[ Parent ]
Vermont
I think this is the first non-Razz poll, and it's pretty heartening to believe Shumlin's down by one point. (though I think the last Razz poll had him up by three a month ago)
Oklahoma
sounds like it's gonna be pretty brutal for the Dems there. Probably doesn't help that all but two of the statewide offices are open seats, but the two incumbents don't seem to be doing much better (Insurance and Labor Commissioners). Oklahoma's one of those states where I'm really curious to see just how bad things are for the Dems, along with Arkansas (where one poll showed the Republicans winning every statewide office they're contesting).
SUSA #'s for Kansas
As has been the case repeatedly, the percentage of registered voters they deem likely to vote would result in turnout higher than in 2008.

Also, 68% of voters under 35 voting Repub, and 32% of black voters just LOVE Sam Brownback!

[ Parent ]
It's a fact that young people and black people LOVE Republicans
...at least according to SUSA. I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I see SUSA polls, especially the uber-BS ones they've been putting out for Kansas. I'd laugh because their crosstabs are just so off-the-wall that they make for fun reading. But I'd cry because people treat them like they're a credible pollster. But seriously, if one-third of black voters opt for Brownback, I will eat my shoe. I'd say he'd be lucky to get 10%, but will probably get more like 5%.

And Jesus, Dana, you're right: their turnout model basically assumes every Republican in the state turns out and all the moderates flock to a crazypants conservative like Brownback.
Their model: 55% R, 26% D, 20% "Independent"**
Actual 2010 statewide registration: 43.5% R, 27% D, 28.6% Unaffiliated

If SUSA's model is correct, I will eat my other shoe. Dana, I really hope you're going to release an internal to push back on this nonsense at some point. Preferably one that also includes numbers for other statewide offices...

**Hey SUSA, they're called "unaffiliated" in Kansas. Also, you swapped McKinney's & Estes's names in your writeup. Fucktards.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
This is the sort of thing...
that makes me think we might hold the House. There are some losses headed our way, but a casual glance at a lot of SUSA and Ras polls says that the only way they get close in a decent number of races is to have unrealistic samples like you are describing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Survey USA always the same. The trouble for Kansas is the next.

In Kansas now all the statewide officers are democrats apart from the insurance commissioner, but all are in the offices after 2008.

The governor is the former lieutenant governor what up after the appointment of K Sebelius in 2009.

The lieutenant governor appointed by the new governor in 2009.

The secretary of state appointed by the new governor in 2009 replacing to one republican.

The attorney general appointed by Sebelius in 2008.

The state treasurer appointed in 2008 by Sebelius replacing to other republican.

It is not rare lose all in a state like Kansas, in a year like this.

[ Parent ]
up sorry, the new secratry of state is in office since some months (2010)

[ Parent ]
It is still disappointing.
We will have no statewide elected Democrats after this year, I think.

I highly doubt Stephanie Moore or Raj Goyle win.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I doubt too

I give all as losed.

I get not dissapointed cause of win not. I understand what appointed democratic officers has very low chance in a R+double digits state.

[ Parent ]
yes, I would be not surprised if the democrats lose all the statewide offices this year in Oklahoma.

They are more open seats:

OK-LG Open by J Askins, the candidate for governor. In the office since 2006.
OK-AG Open by D Edmonson, what loses the primary for governor. In the office since 1994.
OK-SPI Open by S Garrett. In the office since 1990.
OK-ST Open by S Meacham. In the office since 2005. Then appointed by B Henry.
OK-IC K Holland running again. In the office since 2005. Then appointed by B Henry.
OK-CL L Fiends running again. In the office since 2006.
OK-SA S Burrage running. In the office since 2008. Then appointed by B Henry.

Just the stronger and longest serving democrats are not running again, the all the pack get so weak in a year like this, in a state like Oklahoma.

[ Parent ]
I tell not, but all are democratic incumbents

This seven offices are now in democratic hands.
[ Parent ]
NY-23: DCCC airs ad against Doheny.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Good ad
I'm happy they're making Republican elitism a national theme. That can be a winning message

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
The Alaska Numbers Are Fascinating
I honestly don't know what to expect from that race.
The Democrats should be
pumping money into that race. It can't be expensive to advertise, almost half the population lives in one metro area, and he is within a few points. A lost opportunity in Florida, Indiana, and Ohio is reappearing in Alaska and is well within reach.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think it's strategy.
McAdams is very competitive with the other two fundraising wise, and 70% of his money comes from within the State. Lisa's money comes from Super PAC's and Joe's is tea party express money and now K-Street money from the GOP national donor lists. I'm hoping he makes that a campaign issue these last two weeks.  
[ Parent ]
I think he will
He has shown himself to be a surprisingly good campaigner. His ad team in particular is just solid, solid, solid.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Why don't the national Democrats
drop some money to both help him and to motivate voters in and out of the state?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
The most interesting note there...
This poll, which shows Mayor McAdams actually within seven (and Sen. Murkowski within two) was commissioned by the Club for Growth.

Say the poll gives a few points to Miller at the expense of McAdams and Murkowski, and the whole write-in thing dissuades 20% of the voters who now say they support Murkowski, who switch to McAdams because they can't stand Miller (otherwise they'd just vote for the Republican and not worry about the sore-loser senator).

McAdams wins.

I wouldn't call it likely, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, particularly with the enthusiasm gap in Alaska pretty much nonexistent if not upside-down (relative to most other states).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
This is looking like a dead heat even if it still benefits the Republicans.
Hopefully, Democrats in Alaska are smelling blood in the water and start getting out there to support McAdams.  Normally I imagine they would just go to Murkowski as the moderate but still viable alternative to Miller but McAdams looking to possibly win this if he consolidates Dem support must seriously be something to consider, even if we do run the risk of electing Miller.
[ Parent ]
note that angle's modest growth is coming out of the nota column
i guess voters interested in voting for no one figured she offers comparable intellectual and moral vacuity
You misread that poll.
This poll did not do the full ballot test unlike ALL of its previous polls there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
well it doesnt have ashjian
but it seems to have "none of these." i dont know how well that predicts actually marking the ballot that way
[ Parent ]
I assume Ashjian is going to pull at least 2 pts from Angle
He's been around that level for a while now and it just seems like a diehard faction that's going to support him as a conservative protest vote.  If Angle's ahead, that's entirely why it's not a tie.
[ Parent ]
sounds right to me
i wonder if 3rd parties are more likely to draw from major party candidates if they ideologically more similar to them, or less. on the one hand, a large schism would tend to catalyze more protest votes. otoh, better aligned candidates compete more for the same voters. the former theory seems to make more sense to me -- what can ashjian voters really complain about in angle? still, i dont doubt that it will be a two point suck, since some number of people have got to look at "tea party" on the ballot and be unable to resist it.
[ Parent ]
Can Anything Good Come Out Of Winning The California Governor's Race???
Of every race in America, this is the one I see zero upside of a Democratic victory from a tactical standpoint.  The state is ungovernable and its crisis is all but certain to get worse and worse with an Greece-like outcome seemingly inevitable.  To my understanding, the Governor has little hand in the redistricting process.  And the state is solidly blue in Presidential elections meaning the presence of a Democratic Governor offers little structural support for close races.

Are we not better off if Meg Whitman and her party oversee this trainwreck in motion?

But has Ahnold really hurt the GOP party brand?
Whitman/Fiorina/Maldonado/Cooley is probably the strongest Republican ticket this state has seen in well over a decade.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Hell No.
Whitman will just lay off state workers and wonder why that doesn't "solve" everything.  I'd rather have Jerry Brown in there trying to solve things.  If the ballot measure requiring a 50% majority to get a budget instead of 2/3rds passes, it will also help.  Please don't wish for Whitman.  It's gone to hell in a handbasket already.  I don't think the electorate is interested in more Republican "governance."
[ Parent ]
As a California voter
Are "we" better off with Meg Whitman? Depends on who your "we" is, I guess. If "we" is billionaires and Republicans, sure. If "we" is Californians at large or Democrats, then hell no we're not better off.

First off, the state is not ungovernable. It's just had crappy government for awhile now. From a tactical standpoint, a victory in the gube race is crucial. As I understand it, the Governor is able veto redistricting plans, which require a simple majority vote to pass. (I'm assuming the relevant Prop redistricting either loses, which is possible, or gets thrown out by the courts, which is more likely...and please correct me if I'm wrong, SSPers)

Whitman would (understandably) veto anything that undoes the Republican gerrymander, while Brown would say "heck yeah" to a plan that pushes 10-12 seats in our direction. And with solid majorities in both chambers, Democrats could easily pass a plan that sends a lot of Republican incumbents packing.

It would also be an awful precedent if we start allowing billionaires to buy elections, which is basically what Whitman is trying to do.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
And
encourage rich people to spend their money buying elections instead of creating jobs that people like Whitman claim they do. Some of that $140+ million could have been put to much better use creating jobs that we could sure use, whether in California or Texas or elsewhere.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
please don't forget
That spending money for elections helps Radio and TV stations keep their employees in a currently very down market.  The place I worked made enough around election season to stay afloat.  Plus it's all being taxed.  I agree that people shouldn't buy elections, but remember that the money isn't literally being thrown away.  
[ Parent ]
I actually think about that, and think this is no economic negative at all because...
...spending is spending.  As long as money is circulating between Americans, America benefits.  I'm sure there are inefficiencies, such as the many in the health care economy.  But a value judgment that money could be "better spent" on something else instead of campaigns can and does apply equally to SO MANY things in the economy that people don't really complain about.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
hey dont forget
elections are a means to an end!  
[ Parent ]
Oh hell no.
I'd rather have somebody who knows how to do the job, than gamble on another rich outsider with the risk of a major earthquake or wildfire so high.

And yes, the Republican governor can veto the Democratic-passed gerrymandering. It happened in 1990, only the courts ended up drawing the lines because Wilson and the legislature deadlocked.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Brown is also thinking of his legacy
While Whitman will probably be obsessed with trying to position herself for the presidency. The choice is pretty obvious

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Indeed.
Whitman said she would not think about a presidential run while attacking Brown for going for the presidency in 1976 and 1980. It's unlikely Brown, who in 2012 will be older than McCain in 2008, will go for the presidency again. What guarantee do we have that Whitman, who is 54, will not consider a presidential run? None that I know of.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I suspect she'd be more fitting as the VP on a Romney ticket
Even that's awfully premature, though. No way can she run for the top nod in 2012.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
oh come on now
you've been here long enough; redistricting redistricting redistricting!!!
[ Parent ]
That wouldn't matter if Prop 20 passes,
and my guess is that it probably will squeak by just like Prop 11 did 2 years ago.
Because people just hate these politicians and are happy to take away their power when possible.
[ Parent ]
Well I think this is a pretty chance

for show to all what the democrats are better governing than the republicans.

And the redistricting process of California is key. They are 19 republicans in a state what can have a 53-0 or 52-0 with districts near the 60% Obama.

[ Parent ]
Um...
as someone who could end up in CA for grad school I kind of scratched my head while reading this. Unless you believe Meg Whitman would be a better governor than Jerry Brown, aren't you basically wishing malaise upon the state of California? Plus, this is just a personal thing but I'd be very sad if a pro-Prop 8 governor won (especially since it looks like CA is getting a pro-Prop 8 AG).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Underpolled Races
Finally a public poll! We craved it here for so long! Cape Cod Times Poll: MA-10: Keating (D) edges Perry (R) 46-43, leaners included. MA-4: Barnie releases internal poll showing him up 56-37.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
About time
I've joked on here that if I had the money, I'd happily toss Rasmussen $500 and ask him to poll MA-10 for me. The Cape Cod Times website actually took the story down so I couldn't find out who the pollster was, but my guess is Suffolk.

Frank's internal seems about right. Bielat's campaign team was out in force at the Patriots' game today, but that's the Republican part of the district anyway. Frank can lose the entire southern leg of his district and still win because Newton and Brookline are so heavily populated and Democratic

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Rass? oh

I would halp but with other pollster :)

I glad of see some number for MA-10. Fortunately the interesting races without poll are decreasing in decent speed.

[ Parent ]
Haha
In a perfect world, I would have PPP do my polling, but I know Rasmussen will conduct a $500 poll under their Pulse Research for anyone willing to spend the money. Gotta be the best bargain in polling.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
You get what you pay for...
i.e. junk.
[ Parent ]
What percent?
What percent of people at the game are from MA-04?  I'd say less than 10%.  Unless he's still trying to raise money, it would be better to go to a dump or a local mall than a super-regional sports complex. (I'm aware that Patriots Place is a mall too, but it's so hard to get near there during games so  that's the most likely time that locals stay away.)
[ Parent ]
The stadium is in MA-04, but yeah, you're right
As a big underdog, he's just trying anything to get his name out there. Probably has a friend who owns one of the businesses on the road into the stadium (which is where his people were) and let him use it for the day.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
yeah
I knew it was in MA-04, but it'd be kind of like campaigning in Penn Station NYC.  Sure, you are in your CD, but what percent of people can vote for you?  But I didn't realize it was just his team and not him.  Hopefully he sticks to areas that have concentrated voters.

This reminds me of the reverse situation.  I remember something about Allen West in FL doing an event out of his district, and recently Scott Sipprelle in NJ-12 was chided for stopping by the Americana Diner in East Windsor, NJ, which is not in his CD, to talk to voters.  In these cases, there are actually MORE of your voters in a place outside your district.  East Windsor may be in a small notch of NJ-4 that cuts into the 12th, but it's near the center of the sprawling district that goes from New Jersey's coast to coast, and it's is regionally very popular as a diner.  The question is it worth explaining all that when your opponent hits you for "not knowing his own district".  In the case of Sipprelle, I think most NJ-12ers nearby know that the Americana is very popular with everyone.

[ Parent ]
Ya
Newton and Brookline are so heavily populated and Democratic

We joke in our school that it's easier to come out as gay then to come out as Republican.

I don't think Frank is going to lose or get within single digits his just so well liked by the liberals in the district who far outnumber conservatives who hate him.

[ Parent ]
It's definitely easier to be gay
than Republican where I'm from. That's why I'm not worried one bit about Cicilline.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Please don't compare the two
I know you're joking, but Republicans aren't threatened with violence, bullied into suicide, or denied equal rights just because they're Republicans. It's never "easier" to belong to a political party than to be part of a minority group, regardless of where you live.
[ Parent ]
Sorry.
Didn't mean to offend. I know the struggles well myself, although not as bad as many others.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Weekend Poll Dump: Senate, Gov, and Other Miscellany | 75 comments

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