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WV-Sen: Hicks in Sticks Nix NRSC's Picks

by: Crisitunity

Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 12:54 PM EDT


Orion Strategies for Marshall University (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Manchin (D): 48
John Raese (R): 38
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.6%)

Here's some more evidence that Joe Manchin's on an upswing in West Virginia, after having bottomed out for a few weeks there when John Raese hadn't yet been defined and was a shiny new object that fit nicely with voters' discontent with Washington. We don't have trendlines from this pollster (so, for all we know, their model might not have seen a Raese lead at any point), but it's probably not a coincidence that Manchin climbing back into the lead in multiple polls has to do with Dems having engaged the ad war and exposed Raese, as well as help from surrogates like Bill Clinton and of course the NRSC's "hicky" ad controversy, which seemed to have more legs than I originally gave it credit for and, if nothing else, took the GOP off-message here.

Orion Strategies is a local firm that has worked on behalf of both Democratic campaigns and nonpartisan organizations. Here, they're working on behalf of Marshall University, and the chair of the State Elections Commission (a registered Republican and professor) was consultant to the poll, so things seem above-board here.

Crisitunity :: WV-Sen: Hicks in Sticks Nix NRSC's Picks
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I can't say I am thrilled
that he's so willing to throw health care form and cap and trade (although I am more forgiving on the latter, since West Virginia is a coal state) under the bus, but it makes sense, I guess. After all, will his votes really be the ones that are deciding any of these issues? And really, if Reese is elected, will he ever agree with Democrats on any issue? Indeed, I go back and forth on the idea of letting Democrats make exceptions to key party issues, but here it looks to be a smart move. If it's going to keep the seat out of the hands of Republicans, even if it's only until the next cycle, it's a good thing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Poll
It's hard to believe this poll, unknown record to me, also, nothing changed since CNN poll showed the race tied 2 days ago. On an unrelated race, I'm seeing an independent poll (I think it is), that has Souther land (R) crushing Blue-Dog Boyd 56-30 in FL-2.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

Looking at all polling,
it's pretty clear the trend is in Manchin's favor: PPP shows 3 point Manchin lead, Raz shows Manchin gaining, now Marshall poll has Manchin +10.

[ Parent ]
I'll wait to see what else comes out...
But at the very least, it seems like Manchin is retaking the lead. I don't think WV will be lost, but I'm not sure yet just how small or big Manchin's margin will be.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Manchin is pulling away
What's more Rush Limbaugh just endorsed Raese, saying that he knows the guy because they have a locker right across from each other in a Palm Beach Florida Country Club, and saying:

He wants to eliminate the minimum wage. He actually said it's been counterproductive. Now that's the kind of thing most Republicans are afraid to go anywhere near.

Manchin, run with this; you're in a state that regardless of it's views on Democrats and social issues is almost always pro-labor!


[ Parent ]
Yeah,
I think the break is happening now, and Manchin runs away with it.

[ Parent ]
SCORE!
What's more Rush Limbaugh just endorsed Raese, saying that he knows the guy because they have a locker right across from each other in a Palm Beach Florida Country Club,

For Manchin, that is. NO ONE likes to see outside groups swamp one's home and force someone down one's throats. It's backfired on the GOP earlier this year, and I think this is one race where it will definitely backfire on them next month. All Manchin needs to do to respond is say something like this...

"Who do you trust more? Outsiders saying they like my opponent because he hobnobs with the same high falutin' Florida celebrities? Or real West Virginians joining me in doing what's best for our state?"


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I don't buy Manchin+10 right now, but I can believe he'd win if the election were today......
I'm very happy with the new trend here.  Saving WV is key to keeping a decent Senate majority.  CT is in the bag, we're going to win CA and WA, and hopefully Reid will pull it out although I've become newly nervous the past couple weeks.  But WV is very important, getting Manchin over the hump guarantees we keep the Senate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

I'm also a bit skeptical over the margin...
But at this point, I put all of these races in the "Leans Dem" column. NV-Sen and WV-Sen are a bit closer b/c polls have been all over the place, but I think both Reid and Manchin will pull it off b/c as flawed as they are, the GOP nominated even worse candidates (with Angle and Raese) and in our case (Nevada) they have no functioning field campaign while Dems dominate in GOTV. With CA-Sen and WA-Sen, I think Boxer and Murray will win a bit more comfortably now because both Fiorina and Rossi have done NOTHING to win over the moderate Dems and center-left Indies necessary to win in these more naturally Blue States.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I guess Byrd qualified as one of those "most bang for the buck" incumbents
Byrd was very liberal in a seat that is conservative.

Byrd was successful because he didn't come off as "very liberal"
He started off as a very conservative Democrat, especially on social issues, and tacked steadily to the left over his long career. He ended up voting almost all the time with Democrats but still had the image of an old-school Appalachian Dem. I bet he would have been a "no" on cap-and-trade, but other than that he was a solid vote for Reid this Congress.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
He voted against the Iraq War
I'd call him very liberal.

It seems the liberals' lease on this seat was up.


[ Parent ]
Byrd and coal
Byrd made a very frank speech about the pitfalls of West Virginia's dependence on the coal industry a couple of years ago, and the importance of transitioning to clean, renewable energy. I think he might have tried to amend Cap and Trade but might well have voted for it.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Keep an eye on Atty. Gen. Jack Conway in Kentucky
Atty. Gen. Conway seems like a very Byrd-type Democrat; I can easily see him voting, should he pull off the upset against Rand Paul, very similarly to how the late senator voted for his last two terms in the Senate.

Gov. Manchin, on the other hand, is probably going to come in somewhere to the right of Sens. Olympia Snowe and Scott Brown, if he survives this test against Raese.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Ohio poll
Forgive me for going off-topic, but with no morning thread and 300 posts in yesterday afternoon's thread I thought I'd post this here.

Ohio Poll (Univ. of Cincinnati) LV 10/8-13 MOE +/- 3.7%

Kasich 51
Strickland 43

Portman 58
Fisher 36

http://www.daytondailynews.com...

The topline trends weren't posted, but this is a +4 movement for Kasich and a +7 move for Portman. I had some hope that Strickland could turn this one out, but that is getting more deflated by the day.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13


.
There was no way... The midwest is the Dem's worst region right now, with Ohio being the worst of the worst.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Yes
I knew it was a long shot, but Kasich is a terrible candidate. Far to the right of past GOP Ohio governors. There were several polls a few weeks ago that showed Strickland closing, even tied. But it seems like its moving back the other way now.

Fisher was, and is, a bad candidate. Tim Ryan might have made a go of this, but I think the writing was on the wall Portman and his gobs of cash stepped in the ring.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13


[ Parent ]
Rass
had this race as Kasich +3 just a few days ago.  

As a Clevelander, I don't naturally trust anything coming out of Cincinnati, especially not political polls. :)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
True
But Nate Silver has the UC poll as the 5th best overall pollster in his rankings last year, though small sample size caveats do apply.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Fisher
Certainly isn't doing anything to help Strickland. Terrible, terrible candidate. Hard to believe he was ahead back in June.

[ Parent ]
I can't believe the DSCC backed this guy...
Over Brunner.  

[ Parent ]
Oh brother
She would be losing just as badly. They were both terrible options against Portman's money.

[ Parent ]
Washington Poll
Actually, its call "the Washington Poll."

Anyway, this one has Murray up by high single digits as well -

Murray 50, Rossi 42.

Murray also cleaned his clock in a debate last night.

Here's the link:

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/...

WA-07, 34 years old


Should Legitimate Questions about Rasmussen
start to being asked?

I was always willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and thought that his numbers were relatively similar during election season to other pollsters.

But it seems to me that this year he is increasingly providing pro-GOP outliers.

I'll just take the example of WA-Sen, but I think it applies in other races as well.

Ras is the only pollster that has found Rossi with a lead (albeit a very small one).

In the last week we have:

Elway - Murray 55, Rossi 41
CNN/Time - Murray 51, Rossi 43
Rasmussen - Murray 46, Rossi 47
SUSA - Murray 50, Rossi 47
Washington Poll - Murray 50, Rossi 42

One of these things is not like the other . . .

WA-07, 34 years old


To be fair...
(1) SUSA and Rasmussen are far closer than Elway to anything else.  (2) In fact, Rasmussen-CNN are almost as far apart as CNN-Elway (I think the Elway numbers are 55-40).

BUT, Rasmussen today found a much closer race in Delaware and Connecticut than anyone else has. So I agree with your point overall.


[ Parent ]
Not just DE or CT
Also, CA, WV, PA, IL-Gov, etc.

Ras is providing results that other pollsters aren't fighting that are favorable to the GOP.

WA-07, 34 years old


[ Parent ]
I also disagree with your reading
Every pollsters pegs Murray's support at 50 or more except Rasmussen.

SUSA is a robo poll that pushes respondents, so it might be fair to assume that the Washington poll would get something like Murray 51, Rossi 46 if they applied the same standards.

WA-07, 34 years old


[ Parent ]
Agree
And Nate showed clearly that Elway have a history of inflating Democratic performance just as SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have a history of underpolling it in Washington.

[ Parent ]
I want to see what PPP find
It could be the methodology making it look closer than it is but Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are consistently churning out data more Republican leaning. CA, CO, CT, NV, WV, FL, NH and PA all look more favorable for Democrats in PPP releases.

[ Parent ]
PPP has one "glitch" that I question......
The one longtime curiosity in PPP's results is that they show ALMOST EVERYBODY with TERRIBLE favorables/job approvals.  Hardly anyone has positive numbers in their polls.

That's a distinction from Rasmussen; Rasmussen actually gives even Democrats higher favorables/job approvals than PPP, no always but more often than not.

I really question that about PPP, because I just don't believe everyone is THAT unpopular as PPP's results claim.

The tipping point for me was a few months ago when they polled OH and found even Voinovich underwater.  That made no sense.  Voinovich has always been well-liked and respected personally, he voted with his party on everything to that point in this Congress so as not to piss off the Republican base, and he announced his retirement very early so that no one at all has been criticizing him for anything.

The other quirk in PPP's results that's more recent is that they're showing far more non-white voters, especially Hispanics, in some of their polls than anyone else by a big margin.  Their recent CO-Sen and NV-Sen polls had HUGE numbers of Hispanic voters, at Presidential-election levels or higher.  Making this stranger is that this was with a likely voter screen, and these were robopolls which by nature have a pattern of undercounting or getting bad samples of racial minorities.  And PPP can't poll in Spanish, so they should be missing Hispanics rather than capturing more than normal.

PPP is going to be chump or champ with their recent round of polls.

Or maybe not, since they already announced they're polling 18 (YES 18!) states the weekend before the election, so they could easily find their "final" results being very different from their recent ones to date.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Given the fact they had the balls
To actually poll the weekend before most primaries and with great accuracy I'm more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt over Rasmussen. Also, I've shown more than once how PPP severely underscored Dem favorability in their NJ and VA internals a year ago (compared to the exit polling) while nailing the actual result. There have been some trolls at their blog claiming they are producing Democratic leaning polls as a result of bias. I see absolutely no evidence of that since Jensen has never sugarcoated the parties problems in his commentary and indeed they were the first to show Scott Brown ahead in January and Manchin down last month.

[ Parent ]
Sure, I agree with all you just said, I don't doubt their integrity. But I do doubt...
...some of their results, specifically on how antipathetic the electorate really is.

I think there's something to be said for the idea that robopolling picks up the more engaged members of the electorate, and miss the less engaged members who still vote.  That's how I interpret PPP's highly negative favorability/job approval skews, that the less engaged voters simply aren't interested in answering their automated surveys.

Now, the PPP samples still could be represenatative of the total electorate in bottom-line voting behavior.  But so far this cycle their polls have been tested only in primaries and specials.  We'll see what their final-weekend results are and how they stack up on election day.

Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping PPP's recent batch of polls prove right.  They've got Bennet and Sink winning, and those 2 are huge!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]

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