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SSP Daily Digest: 10/14 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 8:05 AM EDT


What would you do without the Daily Digests?

  • MO-Sen: Republican media trackers tell Politico that the DSCC has cancelled $1.3 million worth of ad buys in Kansas City and St. Louis for the final week before the election. The DS tried to push back, saying that "decisions are made on a week-to-week basis," but as Swingnuts well know, cancelling early reservations now subjects you to forfeiting deposits - and means you have to pay higher rates if you decide to go back in later. In other words, late cancellations are not made lightly.
  • WV-Sen: John Raese has one simple request. And that is to have sharks with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads!
  • NV-Sen: So maybe some of that cash earmarked for Missouri is going to Nevada instead. On the heels of Sharron Angle's eye-bursting $14 million haul, the DSCC is making its first ad reservations in the Silver State, apparently for a million bucks a week.
  • GA-Gov: Wow, Nathan Deal really is the epitome of the corrupt scumbag who thinks the purposes of getting elected to public office is to use his position for personal gain. As the AP explains: "While in Congress, Republican Nathan Deal lobbied Georgia's attorney general and top state environmental officials to allow the development of a landfill that he and his business partner wanted next to their auto salvage yard...." Note that though this involves Deal's auto salvage business, this is actually a different scandal from the one which inspired him to resign from Congress (there, he had lobbied the state from his perch in the House to preserve a questionable vehicle inspection program from which he profited immensely).
  • NY-Gov: For the trouble of offering a half-assed, bullshit, "I'm sorry if you were offended" non-apology, Carl Paladino has now lost the backing of the right-wing rabbi, Yehuda Levin, who helped pen the anti-gay speech which got Paladino into such hot water to begin with.
  • Relatedly, a truly awesome catch by Politico's Maggie Haberman: She digs waaay deep to link a story at the Orthodox-oriented news blog Voz Iz Neias (Yiddish for "What's News?") about Paladino's flubbed outreach in the Orthodox community. Though it's getting far less play than his homophobic outburst, Paladino also attacked a bunch of big-time rebbes (Hasidic leaders) for supposedly being suckered into going soft on the libruhl Andrew Cuomo (who had also done the ritual meet-and-greets in Hasidic communities). Several prominent rabbis are now rebuking Paladino for waltzing on to their turf and making such presumptuous accusations against some of their own. So not only did Paladino piss off half the state thanks to this trip, he pissed off the very people he was trying to win over! In a word: fail.

  • CA-03: There aren't a whole lot of bright spots these days, but one of them is definitely Dan Lungren. The former state AG managed to win in 2008 against a badly underfunded opponent with less than 50% of the vote, and has been getting his ass kicked in fundraising literally every quarter this cycle by Ami Bera. So with his back against the wall, Karl Rove is coming to the rescue. American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS is launching ads in the district on Friday, but NWOTSOTB as yet.
  • CA-45: You know I'm a ratfucking fetishist, so of course it warms my heart to hear that Dem Steve Pougnet is doing his best to prop up teabagger Bill Lussenheide. He's targeting Republicans with robocalls that say Lussenheide is the "true conservative" - but he's also sending out mailers to the same households describing him as "extreme" and "dangerous" while calling Rep. Mary Bono Mack a "raging liberal." I imagine the idea is that what's "extreme" and "dangerous" to normal people is actually appealing to crazies. I also love the fact that Bono Mack's people whined that this was a "dirty trick" - just shows they are a bunch of weenies who don't know how to fight.
  • LA-02: Man, it seems like most pols in Louisiana care about party loyalty as much as the writers of LOST cared about not pissing off their fans after six fucking years of slavishly watching that goddamn... uh, where was I? Oh yeah, state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who got pasted in the Democratic primary by Cedric Richmond, has decided to endorse Republican Rep. Joe Cao for re-election. This does not seem like the winning move to me. (And screw you, J. J. Abrams!)
  • OH-09: This comment has the flavor of Star Trek nerds debating whether Captain Picard ever wore the Federation dress uniform while on the bridge of the Enterprise D during season 4... only, except, you know, this guy is actually trying to be serious. Rich Iott's spokesbot pleaded with Politico to understand that no, it was an SS uniform, not a NAZI uniform! I'm sure that will please John Boehner, who, as it turns out, gave $5,000 to Iott last month. Think he wants his Reichsmarks back?
  • PA-03: Paging Mark Twain... Mark Twain to the white courtesy phone. The AFSCME evidently thinks that rumors of Kathy Dahlkemper's demise are at least somewhat exaggerated, since they're dropping $350K on ads on her behalf. Triage is a tricky business.
  • WI-08: Aaron Blake tweets that the DCCC is "pulling out" of the 8th CD, but as is often the case, the picture is more nuanced. First off, AFSCME just dropped $750K here (to which Blake alludes). Secondly, Kagen is personally wealthy. In fact, in 2008, he was the 28th-richest member of the House, with a net worth of anywhere between $7 and $20 million. Hopefully his investments haven't taken too bad of hit the last couple of years and he can still afford to spend large (he gave his campaign almost $900K last cycle).
  • SSP TV:

    • GA-08: Jim Marshall's anti-Pelosi ad actually has hippies in it - for reals
    • NY-20: Fuck yes - Scott Murphy's latest lacerates Chris Gibson for supporting repeal of the healthcare reform bill. Murphy, like Earl Pomeroy, knows the only way to win is to go loud and proud
    • TN-04: Lincoln Davis lacerates Scott DesJarlais for reportedly threatening his ex-wife with a gun - and threatening to kill himself. Stories like this were a big reason why Don Sherwood and Randy Kuhl both lost
    • ID-01: On behalf of Walt Minnick, the mother of a woman murdered by her abuser hits Raul Labrador for his failure to support laws that would protect women in abusive relationships
    • MA-06: Republican Bill Hudak hits Rep. John Tierney on a story we've been somewhat remiss in covering here: namely, his wife's recent guilty plea for tax fraud. By referring to "Tierney's family," the ad makes it sound like Tierney himself was involved, but Hudak gets away with this legerdemain because the wife's brother (family by marriage, I suppose) was also involved. The ad is only running on cable (Hudak had less than $100K on hand at the end of August)

    Independent Expenditures:

    • America's Families First Action Fund: Sounds like a GOP group, but it's actually Dem to the bone: $80K against David Schweikert (AZ-05); $403K against David Rivera (FL-25); $94K on mail against Bob Dold! (FL-25); $200K against Randy Hultgren (IL-14)
    • EMILY: $520K against Tom Ganley (OH-13); $212K against Cory Gardner (CO-04); $20K against Frank Guinta (NH-01)
    • NEA: $1.4 million against Ken Buck (CO-Sen); $306K against Harold Johnson (NC-08)
    • Realtors: $450K for Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
    • SEIU: $100K on radio ads for Cedric Richmond (LA-02); smaller amounts in MI-07 & IL-17
    • VoteVets: $325K cable buy against Pat Toomey (PA-Sen); $31K buy against Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08); $296K for Harry Reid (NV-Sen)
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/14 (Morning Edition)
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    What I do without the Daily Digest?
    Probably heroin.  

    I don't like needles
    So I'd probably just drink ... more.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    I would cry
    I would sit down, and I would cry.
    I would look around for comfortable seating, maybe an ottoman, maybe one of those high back African chairs that's like just two pieces of wood, or maybe even a weight bench, and then I would cry. I would get up and look for some medicated kleenex, and I would sit back down, and I would cry. If someone asked why I was crying, I would say with a bunch of snot coming out of my nose "DW-IIIING - DATE" and "DOUGH MORE DAILY -- sniff -- DIAREEEEES."

    [ Parent ]
    I'd probably just sit at my computer, swearing
    At least for a few days, and more than I already do.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    PA 10 and PA 11 polls
    Marino ahead 44-38.

    Barletta ahead 43-41.

    http://www.timesleader.com/new...

    Why am I beginning to think that '10 will end up a repeat of '08 in PA 11.

    And is this the type of people teaching political science nowadays?

    Dave Sosar, a political science professor at King's College in Wilkes-Barre, said he is by no means stunned by the poll results in the 11th. But the 10th District results drew a deeper reaction.

    He said he was surprised that not only did Marino, 58, have a lead, but that it was greater than the margin of error rate of +/- 4.9 percent.

    Ugh.


    Like I said...
    ... a few comments down, I would really like to know what likely voter screen Critical Insights has.

    If anyone has any idea, don't hold your peace.


    [ Parent ]
    Two more thoughts;
    wow Kagen made a lot of money, he was one successful doctor. Two, Lott's response is pretty bad, because the SS was the worst sector of the Nazi party; the sector primarily responsible for the actual systematic killing of more than six million jews, five hundred homosexuals, and hundreds of thousands of gypsies and political dissidents.  

    Yeah, That's Worse
    Lots of people in Germany at that time, regardless of their actual feelings regarding the Nazi regime, were wearing "Nazi uniforms" because there were adverse immediate consequences if they refused to do so. (This also explains why Pope Benedict ended up in the Hitler Youth. Better objections to his papacy revolve around his complicity in the massive coverup of priest child sexual abuse. Plus the fact that he looks like an Evil Wizard Emperor from a fantasy movie.)

    None of this really applies to the SS, as they were the elite corps who perpetrated many of the worst of the war crimes.

    While I wouldn't necessarily expect an average member of the public to understand the distinction and how horrible it reflects upon Lott....I would expect a WW2 buff who does war re-enactments to know at least something about this.  

    Short version: Lott's a moron.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03


    [ Parent ]
    Yep
    If you were drafted into the Germany army you could serve, you could go hide in the forest or you could be executed.  One Austrian farmer who refused to serve on religious grounds is now a saint, that's how rare it was:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

    But the SS were volunteers, often from occupied countries.  Germanliberal's analogy is perfect.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    By the way
    Maryland precinct results are out at the State BoE. I really want to see your analysis of the State's Attorney's race.

    20 M MD-01

    [ Parent ]
    Part 3: Coming Soon!
    Thank you for the tip. :)

    I am going through so much data I lost sight of the forest for a while and finding new wrinkles and am trying to figure out how to relate all this to people.

    I was drawing up my narratives based on the '06 races, then looked at '08 and was surprised that some of those narratives had to be substantially revised.  

    For instance, Hampden and Highlandtown are nearly identical twins up and down the ballot in 2006. Then comes 2008. Highlandtown is a stronghold for Hillary in the Presidential primary, while every precinct in Hampden goes for Obama. Fascinating stuff at the micro-level, and this sort of thing might matter in a close election.      



    36, M, Democrat, MD-03


    [ Parent ]
    Two more thoughts;
    wow Kagen made a lot of money, he was one successful doctor. Two, Lott's response is pretty bad, because the SS was the worst sector of the Nazi party; the sector primarily responsible for the actual systematic killing of more than six million jews, five hundred homosexuals, and hundreds of thousands of gypsies and political dissidents.  

    *five hundred thousand


    [ Parent ]
    Iott's response is totally mind boggling
    It is about as reasonable as if one would argue that Darth Vader isn't a bad guy because he doesn't wear the uniform of a Storm Trooper

    [ Parent ]
    And as you can see by looking at my moniker
    I'm something like an expert on this issue.

    [ Parent ]
    If you are German
    We really must exchange email addresses because I'm a German Language major and I have a German Politics course this semester. Could always use a native perspective.  

    [ Parent ]
    Certainly
    I would love to help you with that. How can I give you my e-mail adress? I don't know how to do it without publicly posting it here.  

    [ Parent ]
    hmmm
    Well, you could make it part of your profile on this site, without having to put it in a comment.

    [ Parent ]
    GA-08 - Add Marshall To The List
    http://www.macon.com/2010/10/1...

    Marshall will not support Pelosi for Speaker.

    That's four sitting members of Congress so far, not counting DeFazio's call for new leadership.

    This is strictly hypothetical, but I could see a scenario where Skelton is the alternative choice, similar to Murtha was Taylor's pick in the past.

    Let's say there's a large enough majority to allow for 10 or so anti-Pelosi votes, I could see those votes going to Skelton.

    The problem is going to be if the majority is slim. In that case, I still see Hoyer becoming the nominee. The Caucus itself is not going to nominate someone who cannot get enough votes. It's one thing to act non-committal, but when you flat out say you will not support a person for Speaker, it's kind of hard to combat that.

    I don't think the Caucus wants to test Taylor, Bright, Marshall, etc. "Calling their bluff" might backfire.


    they wont try to call their bluff
    It'll be highly orchestrated and will be carried out smoothly; this is a vote you don't get wrong.

    I also really hate Hoyer as a suggestion by so many.  It's going from one coast to the other for someone with a nearly idenitical voting record.  If we're going to toss out big scary feminist San Fran living Pelosi, let's go the opposite way and go for someone in the heartland and from a more working class background.  (And a woman.)


    [ Parent ]
    Could
    they just vote "Present?" I know its a cowards way out that might cause more harm than good, but they can turn around and tell their constituents they didn't vote for Pelosi and tell the base they didn't vote for a GOP speaker.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    like who?
    Though, that is the question. McCollum? Marcy Kaptur? Louise Slaughter? There aren't that many options.  

    [ Parent ]
    McCollum is exactly who Ive been thinking of
    From a working class suburb and while she represents St Paul, the suburbs make up a majority of her district.  She even worked retail for black friday to pay her bills after getting first elected to Congress three-four weeks earlier.

    [ Parent ]
    I can see that
    And she's also a quasi-protege of Pelosi, so it could be a possible option if Pelosi sees, in a narrow majority, a group steadily opposing her and thus cuts a deal to keep Hoyer from becoming Speaker by making McCollum that standard bearer instead.

    [ Parent ]
    I think this is a case where political junkies lose perspective
    Honestly, how many persuadable voters do you really think know that Nancy Pelosi represents San Francisco in the House? How many persuadable voters do you think know that John Boehner represents southwestern Ohio? I can't imagine that the number is all that high, and more the point, I can't imagine that it really changes any minds (nor can I imagine that anyone, outside of rabid partisans, really give a shit).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Technically Boehner represents
    northwestern Ohio.  

    [ Parent ]
    Fine, but point remains n/t


    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    we wouldnt be talking about Pelosi
    if people didnt know or care.

    [ Parent ]
    Untrue, we're talking about Pelosi because she's Speaker
    There's absolutely no reason to believe that Pelosi's really controversial except for the fact that she's Speaker of the House, she's going to be controversial as long as she's Speaker, and the next Speaker will become controversial (especially if they're of the opposite party of the president).

    Trying to elect a nonoffensive Speaker is an exercise in futility (unless of course the dynamic is like Hastert/DeLay, where DeLay was the real power in the Republican caucus).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    I don't think they'll call their bluff. I just bring that up because DGM and I think a few others have mentioned that these guys are all talk. I disagree but I did want to include it.

    It's not like Pelosi is suddenly thrown up as the nominee, like you said, this is highly orchestrated and there's a ton of behind the scenes stuff going on leading up to the vote. It'll be obvious whether or not Pelosi has the votes.

    The reason Hoyer is mentioned is because he's viewed as more friendly to centrists and Conservative Democrats in the Caucus. He does have just as liberal of a voting record, but, it's all about perception. Hoyer has a similar voting record but I'm not sure he'll be demonized as easy as Pelosi has over the years.

    Not sure why we have to replace a woman with a woman. Using that logic, we should never have another male Democratic Speaker.

    Who are some viable women for the Speakership? SHS and DWS would be my top two choices. They're both relatively new though. I just cannot think of a woman who's got a ton of seniority and has close ties with the entire caucus, not just the CPC or just the Blue Dogs/New Democrats.


    [ Parent ]
    The GOP will demonize whoever the face of the party happens to be


    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    That's a given. However, it'll be a fresh start for the Caucus, a way for Democrats to run on something new, and someone who is more in tune with the entire Caucus.

    The GOP will certainly try to demonize him, but I think it'll be more difficult. Pelosi's been demonized since before she became Speaker.


    [ Parent ]
    It's not going to be harder
    If the entire Republican caucus continues doing what it's doing, the next Speaker will be in the exact same position in 4 years that Pelosi is in now. You can't remove your party leader after keeping control of the House just because "oh noez, Republicans are going to call her a San Francisco liberal!!!"

    Plus, I love that you think Ike Skelton, who is objectively to the right of most of the Democratic caucus, is "more in tune with the entire Caucus" I think you mean to say, "he's more in line with the conservative Democrats that I'm more comfortable with".

    And by the way, if Pelosi's easy to demonize, Steny Hoyer is too, unless people here have forgotten that Steny Hoyer represents affluent DC suburbs. I don't think it matters (and I think it's a really bad idea for the caucus to remove Pelosi if they retain control of the House) but the logic you've been using is almost comical.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Thank you!
    Thank you for pointing that out. They go after San Francisco liberal Nancy Pelosi all the time but with Hoyer they will just go after DC insider Steny Hoyer. His district as you noted is very affluent with tons of government workers in it. No matter who you put in there they will attack them so don't let them dictate who you elect as your speaker.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Huh?
    Instead of going for the witty remark, maybe you should read my post.

    I was referring to Hoyer, not Skelton, as being more in line with the entire Caucus.

    Nice try though.

    Hoyer will eventually be demonized, but again, reading is key.

    Even though you replied to the comment, I'll post it again, hopefully you'll read it this time. I'll even bold a few important parts for you.

    "However, it'll be a fresh start for the Caucus, a way for Democrats to run on something new, and someone who is more in tune with the entire Caucus.

    The GOP will certainly try to demonize him, but I think it'll be more difficult. Pelosi's been demonized since before she became Speaker."


    [ Parent ]
    You mentioned Skelton at one point
    That's the reason I brought that up, but since you seem to want to be a wise-ass yourself, I did respond to the Hoyer thing, maybe you'd like to re-read my post:

    And by the way, if Pelosi's easy to demonize, Steny Hoyer is too, unless people here have forgotten that Steny Hoyer represents affluent DC suburbs. I don't think it matters (and I think it's a really bad idea for the caucus to remove Pelosi if they retain control of the House) but the logic you've been using is almost comical.

    And to answer your point about Pelosi being demonized since before being Speaker by the Republicans, so what? So it'll take Hoyer six years instead of four years until the Republicans make him too controversial to remain Speaker, until the Republicans convince Bright, Taylor, etc. that Socialist Steny is horrible and we need a new Speaker? By the way, that assumes Republican attacks against Pelosi prior to 2006 really matter, and you haven't given any good reason why it should, you just assume we should take that as being granted.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Hoyer is THE median of the Democratic caucus
    per DW-NOMINATE scores.  Why would Hoyer not be an ideal compromise?

    [ Parent ]
    He won't be the median after this election
    He's not progressive, or aggresive, enough to lead the Democratic caucus that will come out of this election.

    Anyway, it seems a waste of time to speculate at this point.


    [ Parent ]
    He wouldn't be my choice
    I'm just pointing out that he would be a genuine compromise between conservative and liberal Democrats, whereas someone like Skelton would not.

    [ Parent ]
    because the feminists already lost Hillary
    Pelosi going down because of an MSM narrative could cause some very ugly inter-party drama.

    [ Parent ]
    i can only imagine the news articles
    that would come out because of the 24/7 news cycle making everyone have to write about anything they can think of.  "Look at the Dems giving all their women leaders the boot while the GOP's resurgence has been lead by women.". Even if they're Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, the narrative will be attempted.  

    [ Parent ]
    I suspect there will be a compromise keeping Pelosi as speaker
    but giving blue dogs some part of the agenda, perhaps even choicer committee assignments.

    Blue dogs can then go back in 2012 and say "see what I got in exchange for my vote".

    If Pelosi does go, then I think another woman has to be

    at least majority leader
    . I mentioned Rosa DeLauro earlier because I think she previously was in leadership. Others who are already whips:

    Maxine Waters
    Diana DeGette
    Jan Schakowsky
    Debbie Wasserman Schultz

    While few would support Waters, I think the others are reasonable alternatives (nevertheless I still loathe DWS).

    I do believe that keeping Pelosi as speaker -- or some appropriate compensation would be essential if we expect to keep the gender gap in our favor in future congressional elections.


    [ Parent ]
    error...
    I meant to put at least majority leader in bold, not blockquote.

    [ Parent ]
    Not Skelton
    This talk is only relevant if the margin in the days after the election is 1 or 2 seats either way, and I imagine the Democrats would stick with Pelosi regardless. But if not, I can't imagine it'll be Skelton since there's a reasonable chance he loses this year, if not he seems sure to retire in 2012, and of course he isn't close to the current leadership.  

    [ Parent ]
    Here
    Again, I'm reposting something I already said, hopefully to clear up any confusion:

    "Let's say there's a large enough majority to allow for 10 or so anti-Pelosi votes, I could see those votes going to Skelton.

    The problem is going to be if the majority is slim. In that case, I still see Hoyer becoming the nominee."

    When I say "I could see those votes going to Skelton" that means a few Democrats voting for Skelton out of protest. A quick look at past votes will show that Taylor and others have cast "protest votes".


    [ Parent ]
    Let's see whether any of them
    actually survive Nov. 2, first.  

    [ Parent ]
    Maine house polls
    Pingree ahead by 15, Michaud by 13.

    http://www.pressherald.com/new...

    http://www.pressherald.com/new...

    Critical Insights.  Which means a lot of undecided and high MOE.


    Will today be the bad polling day, or good or goodish like the past 2 days?
    M-D: Angle +2, SUSA: Herrera +11, Rassy doesn't see any change in margin for Toomey, +10, F&M poll in PA-7 has Sestak up 43-36, not where you want to be in your home district.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

    Don't Worry
    I'm sure Jon Ralston will tweet that there's something wrong with the Mason/Dixon poll that shows Angle leading.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Don't know about Ralston
    But they have her unfavorability ten points lower than PPP and Suffolk.

    [ Parent ]
    At this stage
    I've given up on polls in NV at this stage.  I'll only trust the actual results.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Tied race
    Decided by one of two rules - a tight race breaking to the challenger or underpolling Dem statewide performance.

    [ Parent ]
    The latter...
    Studies have shown that tight races don't always break for the challenger, especially when the challenger as negative favorable ratings as bad as the incumbent's.

    Also, as I keep repeating here, much of the public polling this cycle has been nothing short of wholly craptastic... And let's be real, The R-J & M-D have certainly led the way on this! I can't wait to see what screwy internals I'll find over there. Already, I'm not trusting them because they those to ditch the full ballot test.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Full ballot test
    http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/...

    All looks above board to me. Except they only find her favorables at 41-43 negative when PPP and Suffolk both found them about ten points worse.


    [ Parent ]
    Suffolk says 41-52
    PPP says 41-53. Big anomaly IMO. Anybody know what Rasmussen says on the subject?

    [ Parent ]
    No, it's not...
    No Ashjian. No Holland. No Fasano. None of the Indy or 3rd party candidates was included this time. They did it in their last poll, but all of a sudden they disappeared off the ballot? This and Angle's mysteriously better favorables don't pass the smell test.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    I see what you mean now
    My first instinct was correct - poll done for paper that endorsed Angle. This stinks more than a little.

    [ Parent ]
    Yep, yep, yep...
    They skewed the results. It's just a shame The R-J is having Mason-Dixon do this for them. M-D used to be quite the respectable outfit, but I just don't get why they'd want The R-J to ruin their reputation... Do they really pay that much?

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    the polls are all saying the same thing
    The race is within the margin of error so wait til EDay.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually, he has...
    And for good reason, Mason Dixon & The R-J did NOT do a full ballot test. It looks like The R-J was out to find a way to put Angle in the lead. Isn't this called "push polling"?

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    A push poll is something else completely
    A push poll is not designed to get results: it's designed to get a negative message about an opponent across to the respondent while pretending to be a poll.  It's different from a biased (but real) poll, or message testing.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Yes.
    People think that if a poll is trying to "push" a narrative (Ras?) that it's a "push poll".  That's 100% inaccurate.  You don't care about samples or demos or anything in a push poll.  You just call as many people as possible saying that you are a poll but instead asking if you'd still vote for Jerry Brown or Sharron Angle if you knew they said mammograms don't prevent cancer.  

    [ Parent ]
    What do you and Ralston mean by this
    Is this latest Mason-Dixon poll different to the others? Because in the link above it says they asked Angle, Reid,
    One of the other candidates, None of these. So basically before now they asked Ashjian? That is dodgy as hell.
     

    [ Parent ]
    PA-7
    F&M Poll has Meehan +3 in PA-7, but typical to them nobody decides for whom to vote until magically in the polling booth....

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

    [ Parent ]
    That one is good news
    Since everybody was leaving Lentz for dead. I think that makes three polls saying the same thing.

    [ Parent ]
    I think
    it's time for the DCCC to move some cash away from a race that's slipping away from us (Kanjorski maybe) and dump it here.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Kanjorski looks less dead than Carney upthread


    [ Parent ]
    PA-10
    I still trust that Momentum Analysis poll from a few weeks back because of their excellent likely voter screen. The screen is whether voters voted in four of the last six general elections.

    That poll contradicts this Critical Insights poll showing Chris Carney trailing pretty badly. Until I find out what Critical Insights' likely voter screen is, I'm going with the Momentum Analysis poll.


    [ Parent ]
    Kanjorski not "slipping away"
    Two polls in the last two days have him down 7 and 2.  He was trailing in the polls at this time two years ago.  This is a winnable race.

    [ Parent ]
    No Obama this time though
    He probably needs Sestak and Onorato to get closer to have a decent shot. Unfortunately people don't seem to care about Marino's legal troubles. Same scenario as Deal, Vitter and others.

    [ Parent ]
    PA 11
    Unlike PA 10, PA 11 is a Democratic district.  A lot of them could come home in the end regardless of it not being a presidential year.  And Barletta is as well known in the district as Kanjorski, so his negatives are highter than most other challengers.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh I know
    I've not written him off by any means.

    [ Parent ]
    I did until not too long ago
    It's a Dem district and while the GOP base will be turning out, what about the other types of voters.  Will the Dems just naturally be more numerous and be able to counter the GOP base and whatever other voters they get out to vote.

    [ Parent ]
    Im surprised about Deal
    He is the quintessential "Washington politician".  Is Barnes hitting Deal over the head with this?

    [ Parent ]
    Not so much depressed this cycle myself
    Just angry at this sort of thing. Seems like blind hatred of Obama and Democrats in general in the face of some pretty damning evidence. But maybe I'm just seeing it all through partisan blinkers. At least it looks to be working for Alex Sink.  

    [ Parent ]
    Digging into PA-07
    I think this a true toss-up right now.  Very encouraging compared to what I thought a week ago.  Sestak is +9 in the district right now and a good Senate GOTV in the district could pull Lentz over the line.

    The LV pool isn't that bad for Dems either.  For example, the ideology breakdown in the district is 21% Liberal, 42% Moderate, 33% Conservative.  Moderates are breaking for Lentz, 35/25 with 38% undecided, while Liberals and Conservatives are predictably breaking to party.

    However, if you assign undecideds according to how they're currently breaking, and extrapolate to election day, you get Meehan 49, Lentz 45.  Lentz will either need more of the undecided moderates to break his way than are currently doing so, or we can hope that there's a bit of cell phone bias affecting this poll (which is RBS).  When SurveyUSA compared RDD to RBS in VA-05, the RBS sample gave the Republican a 6 point greater lead, FWIW.


    [ Parent ]
    Good news for Patrick, Abercrombie and Blumenthal


    [ Parent ]
    For
    those interested in the CA-AG's race, Cooley's up on the air. Also Harris has a new ad out where Steve Cooley is telling a debate moderator he is definitely going to double dip if he's elected as Attorney General. Um...not the smartest thing to say Cooley.



    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    Still only 1 Harris ad airing infrequently in L.A. (eom)


    [ Parent ]
    He'd draw his DA pension in addition to his AG salary (eom)


    [ Parent ]
    NRSC going up in PA
    Rasmussen doesn't show it but maybe there is something to the Dem polling.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...


    PA
    It's not a state you want to take a chance with and nearly all the polls have shown only a single-digit lead, albeit a high one mostly.  I'm sure they don't want a last minute Sestak surge to take it from them since he's known for closing well.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Sure
    Toomey is clearly ahead but still, you would rather not have to spend there. Though I guess the DSCC reserving time in NV because of Angle's Q3 haul is similar.

    [ Parent ]
    Probably to blow Sestak's tires out from staging a late surge
    Clearly, that's the Dem strategy here - go for another 11-'o-clock hour rally and hope to eek out a 3-5% win over the presumed front-runner. My hunch, however, is Toomey's actually a harder target in the general than Specter was in the primary.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    3-5%
    I'd rather not have to pay for that kind of margin! <1% will do me just fine.

    [ Parent ]
    Id even taken a Franken/Coleman redux


    [ Parent ]
    NH-Sen: Union Leader endorses Ayotte
    Is that unusual or not?
    Doubt it matters either way mind you.

    [ Parent ]
    Not unusual in the least
    The Union Leader has among the most conservative editorial boards in the country. They endorsed Ovide Lamontagne in the primary, I believe.

    20, GOP, NH-02

    [ Parent ]
    In Other News...
    ...water is wet, and the sun rises in the east.

    Both are functionally equivalent to "Union Leader endorses Republican."  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03


    [ Parent ]
    DCCC not giving up on Nye, Kratovil and Perriello
    If any of them win
    It'll be Kratovil.

    [ Parent ]
    this reminds me
    that I have a friend who lives out there so I better make sure she votes.  That's one.

    [ Parent ]
    Thoughts...
    As a local resident I happy about that but those are going to be 3 very tough races to pull out. If Kratovil can survive he will be given a much better district to run in 2012. Andy Harris already has high negatives from his run in 2008. However, its going to be very tough for Kratovil and he the most likely to lose here. Glenn Nye has had a good amount of DCCC ad's hitting his opponent Scott Rigell for opposing the stimulus but taking money in cash for clunkers (he's a car dealer). Still going to be a very tough race for Glenn Nye to win especially with talk of military base closings in his district, that did him no favor. While Perriello is my favorite Rep of the 3 he has a very tough race against a very generic Republican candidate who doesn't have a lot of baggage. If he loses its going to be because of the D behind his name. The debate with Perriello-Hurt last night was pretty funny. Hurt talked about repealing HCR and Perrielllo got him to admit that he has not read the bill other then the GOP's Pledge to America and what they would do. The wind is very much in Perriello's face and barring any misstep from Hurt (who is being very cautious) he is likely to lose.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Amusing
    One of us is very wrong about Kratovil!

    [ Parent ]
    Very true...
    I base mine on the assumption that Kratovil has a much tougher district of which to draw votes from. He is going to need a lot of McCain cross-over voters. Not impossible but he's going to need around 25%. Harris is a damaged candidate lost narrowly in 2008. Also Kratovil doesn't have a district with a lot of African-Americans in it, he has 11%, Nye has 22% and Perriello has 24%. Obama only carried Nye's district (narrowly) of the 3 and narrowly lost Perriello's while he was crushed in Kratovil's. I hope all 3 win so we will both be wrong in a sense.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Harris is a retread
    And is far weaker than either Rigell or Hurt. The fact he won in 2008 without Obama's help is a plus this year. Not to mention the fact a Dem pollster has actually been able to come up with an internal showing Kratovil ahead. Neither can be said for Nye or Perriello.

    [ Parent ]
    The DCCC is also putting more into MD-01
    Than into either seat in Virginia.

    [ Parent ]
    True
    Kratovil should he win would definitely without a doubt have the most staying power. I don't know if that has anything to do with their decision but your points are very valid. The Democratic legislature would definitely help him take some more liberal areas into his district. Even if he loses I would hope that he would run again in a new district that would significantly benefit him and he could keep his seat for a while.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    The Big Wrinkle
    If Harris wins, what do the 2012 primaries for a redrawn MD-01 even look like?  

    Presumably the Dems with a trifecta will draw something that doesn't include Harris' home base (which doesn't really belong in the district anyway) and does include either all or most (maybe excluding or splitting Cecil County) of the Eastern Shore. The way things are going I wouldn't expect a centrist primary challenge to Harris to work...but I could also a 7-1 map give rise to him taking on 80-something Roscoe Bartlett instead.

    A more Dem-leaning district means an opening for a candidacy for someone more left-leaning than Kratovil but also someone less likely to attract crossover votes. There are very few Dems in the western reaches of the current MD-01, but that could change quite a bit if you redo the lines.    

    An Ehrlich win of course gives the GOP a seat at the table, which changes the dynamics.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03


    [ Parent ]
    redistricting
    I would expect them to make that district less red even if Kratovil loses a close one. He's very young (42) and has shown that he's competitive against Harris. They could probably keep Sarbanes and Ruppersberger safe by making Edwards' and Cummings' seats less monolithically blue. The latter two seats have big black majorities (57%, 59% as of 2000) and you could probably reduce them a bit without violating the VRA.  

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Totally agree
    With you here. If Kravotil survives he can also move his voting record a bit to the left to reflect his new district. Either way he should definitely run again in 2012 as if he loses it will be very narrow and with a more blue friendly district Harris's views would be very much out of touch.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe it's my college internet connection
    but anyone else having trouble loading California (w/ test data) and North Carolina on DRA?

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    The Sestak strategy
    That's Joe Sestak yelling "Hold!" at about 1:20.



    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


    Hahahah
    I just imagine Sestak as William Wallace and Pat toomy is the guy who gets the pick ax to the head at 2:23.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    That would make
    John Cornyn the guy at the beginning who insists, "We'll cut them down like grass."

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    [ Parent ]
    I think the ad will be effective
    Besides, what hunter wants to ruin his camouflage with bright orange? It would just provide a better target for the former VP.

    /snark


    [ Parent ]
    Manchin and Cheney
    No apologies.

    [ Parent ]
    An intraparty fight is good for Manchin
    If the national Democrats aren't happy with him, the conservative state Democrats wanting to send a message by voting against the governor they like might not have to.

    [ Parent ]
    Charlie Wilson
    May be facing some adverse press soon due to some leaked documents from his divorce proceedings. The truth of these allegation have to be questioned because it was in a rancorous divorce, but it may play a role.

    I've seen this on a couple of right wing blogs
    But it doesn't seem to have broken through anywhere else yet.  

    [ Parent ]
    great Scott Murphy ad
    I want every Democrat who voted for health care to run that ad.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    New NV-Sen Ad: By request...
    It's Reno Mayor Bob Cashell (R)!

    What? You expected something happy and positive? Nope, not here...

    But guess who brought on the feel-good goodness?

    Surprised? ;-)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    VoteVets ad
    is freakin inspiring. Good stuff.

    [ Parent ]
    Is that running on the air?
    That VoteVets ad is by far the greatest artistic achievement of any ad I've seen this entire cycle. I can't stress how far above all other political advertising that ad is...I just got a lot more respect for Reid. Could anything even comparable be said for Angle!?

    Radical or something, WA-07

    [ Parent ]
    It is airing.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    CA-44: Calvert 48, Hedrick 43 (Zata3)
    http://www.hedrickforcongress....

    Hedrick claims momentum.  I don't see this district going Dem this year but Prop 19 is a wild card.


    Prop 19
    Won't help Hedrick much, in all likelihood. The bits of the OC and Imperial County he reps just don't have a lot of young people who might be inspired to turn out.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    Riverside, not Imperial
    And CA-44 does contain UC Riverside.  Still, my hopes aren't buoyed too much by this poll.  The memo contained no additional information except n=611.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, I should
    Probably do more than a cursory glance at a map before I write my comments, shouldn't I?  :)  UC-Riverside does have almost 20,000 undergrads and 15,000 grad students, so it could be a factor, if students actually turn out.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    I think this will be close
    Hedrick was down by 11 two weeks ago, and now he's down by 5?  That's amazing!  This is going to be close, no matter what anyone says, because undecideds are breaking for Hedrick in a very uneven fashion, and calvert has lost some support.  My grandmother just moved to this district, and registered to vote, so, that is one more Hedrick vote that wasn't there before.

    Fact is, Calvert is not well liked (for a good reason), and this year the environment may not save him. In addition to that, there is absolutely no enthusiasm gap here this year (per PPP).  That means is CA has a similar percent of Obama voters coming out, my distric could theoretically vote in Hedrick, because Obama did win this district by a out 1%.  Hopefully Hedrick pulls it out, even if he doesn't, if this district stays relatively the same in 2012, Calvert is Kaput next cycle..

    I just wish this race had got more attention than other races we are less likely to win.

    ¡VIva la Hedrick!  I think in gunna donate some money to him today.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    CA-44 won't look the same
    You can take that to the bank.  If Prop 20 passes, nobody can possibly argue that San Clemente and Riverside share a "community of interest."  The Orange County portion of the district will then be lopped off and replaced by (necessarily) less Republican areas in Riverside County, where Calvert would have little chance.  If Prop 20 fails, Democrats will make the Corona to Riverside corridor the core of a Democratic district, where Calvert would have no chance.

    Sorry, but I still think Calvert wins by 4-8 this year.

    (You'll probably hate me, as if I remember correctly you live in San Clemente... but what I'd most like to see drawn is a district packing Republicans from Huntington, Newport, the Saddleback, and San Clemente, freeing up Irvine for a Democratic-leaning swing district.)


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, I hate you for your redistricting idea
    But, Orange County isn't Republican land anymore, and it is slowly but surely becoming a swing area.  Registered republicans have taken a nose dive while registered Dems and independents have ticked up in recent years.  I would not be suprised if Orange County becomes a california bellwether of sorts in the years to come.  Laguna Beach, Irvine, costa Mesa and santa Anna could theoretically counterbalance really conservative places like Newport and my home of San Clemente.

    In ten years, this county will be very different, which I find is a good thing.

    here is this image I found on here a while ago

    Sure, there is a lot of red, but there is also a lot of green and blue.  Even with SC and SJ so republican in their voting trends, I still see a path to victory for Hedrick.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for the map
    Republicans could probably be packed into two districts with some help from adjacent areas of LA, with one swing and two reasonably Democratic districts.  Loretta wouldn't like it, but I'm tired of her anyway, and OC Democrats definitely need a fresh face.  Beth Krom would be perfect; she probably would have won if she ran in 2008.  Of course, Hedrick probably would've too if he'd had any money, but this year the draft from upballot is blowing the wrong way (Whitman/Fiorina +10 to +15 would be my guess, compared to Obama +1).

    BTW, obviously city #12 is Los Alamitos; did you happen to catch its PVI?


    [ Parent ]
    Hey
    that's my map! :) Those PVI ratings are from 2008 only, if i took the 2004 and 2008 averages that map would be a whole lot redder.

    16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I loved that Diary you made
    I was also wondering when looking at that map where you got that data from, and whether it would have precinct by precinct date.  I'd like to see which areas of which city vote.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    In 2008 he almost lost
    unexpectedly and maybe that was a sign people were over him.  And this cycle is all about everyone being unpopular and people having to choose one of the two parties who both suck.

    [ Parent ]
    Means she's really up 6-8


    [ Parent ]
    What is your basis for that
    aside from a visceral negative reaction to Rasmussen's polling?

    Reuters/Ipsos had a 4 point gap in their most recent survey and SurveyUSA had a 3 point gap. Angus Reid isn't worth considering. Hopefully we'll see a Field Poll soon.

    Fiorina was pummeled on the airwaves in September and she's only recently started pushing back, especially with her two most recent ads which in my opinion are pretty effective. It stands to reason that the race would be tightening again as Fiorina becomes more visible on TV.

    I'm not saying Fiorina's going to win, far from it, but this margin is perfectly believable. In any case, I think Fiorina is a much better investment for the NRSC at this point than Rossi.  

    20, GOP, NH-02


    [ Parent ]
    I know Pollster.com...
    ...says that Rasmussen Senate polls have a Republican-leaning house effect of about 2 percentage points.

    Here's the post about it.

    http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...


    [ Parent ]
    Any "visceral negative reaction to Rasmussen's polling"
    Has a basis in clear data showing a Repulican lean in his numbers. But this margin is believable in my opinion.

    [ Parent ]
    Doesn't Raz
    have a documented Republican lean? I mean, on average, over all its polling (which isn't to say that there's necessarily a lean in this particular case).

    Just Googled Nate Silver's take. Here's what he said:

    Sometimes, polls from a particular polling firm tend consistently to be more favorable toward one or the other political party. Polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, for example, have shown results that are about 2 points more favorable to the Republican candidate than average during this election cycle.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...


    [ Parent ]
    Look at past results
    If you look at the 2006 and 2008 senate projections, and results, and compare margin or victory that Rasmussen projected with the final margin of victory.

    In 2006 in the 25 Senate Races, Rasmussen had overestimated the margin of victory in the Republican favor 14 times, overestimated the margin of victory in the Democrats favor 8 times, and exactly right on the margin or victory 3 times.  And had the polls projecting a different winner 1 time (he projected Jim Talent to beat Claire McCaskill by 1 point 49-48, and McCaskill obviously won 49-47).

    In 2008 out of the 31 Senate Races, Rasmussen had overestimated the margin or victory in the Republican favor 16 times, and overestimated the margin of victory in the Democrats favor 12 times, while being exactly correct 3 times.  Once again, there was only 1 time where he incorrectly projected the winner (he had Norm Coleman up over Al Franken 43-39 and Franken obviously won with a 42-42 percent tie.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


    [ Parent ]
    Possible Rasmussen explanation
    I presume Rasmussen uses an ultra-tight voter screen this cycle. It would overpoll enthused voters -- a.k.a. Tea Party types, early in the cycle.

    We've seen a lot of Rasmussen polls here that are a lot more R than seemed otherwise justified.

    But as Ds get engaged, Rasmussen polls get closer to the final result. In that way, they can also maintain their "track record," where their final polls are relatively close to the actual election result.

    In addition, Nate uses a different metric -- comparing Rasmussen polls to the mean -- specifically, the mean of other polls taken at similar timeframes during the cycle.

    So it's possible that both Nate and Rasmussen are right, relative to the metrics they use.


    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen Polls
    In reading the whole polls that Rasmussen puts out, I do know that Rasmussen went to likely voter polls sooner that most, an in a year where the Republican Voters are more enthusiastic to vote the Democrats, that will cause polls to look more skewed to Republican's.  I also remember seeing Rasmussen list that the numbers do include leaners.  I do not know if most polls attempt to get the respondents to give an answer if at first they say they say that they are undecided.

    As for comparing polls to other polls, atleast I look more to get an idea of who will win.  Thus, I don't care how close they are to the other polls as I care how close they are to the final outcome.  If the consensus if that Candidate A is leading by 4 points, but poll A goes against the consensus and says that Candidate A is leading by 8.  If Candidate A ends up winning by 7 or more, then poll A was the better poll in my mind, even if they were several points off the consensus.


    [ Parent ]
    Agree with your second paragraph
    But your own data indicates a GOP lean. As does every other analysis. Pollster, Nate Silver, WSJ, Kos and others. I include myself in that. I looked at his swing state polling and he was well off in almost every one of them. The excuse some like to give is that it was hard to judge the spike in Democratic turnout. But even ARG did a better job.  

    [ Parent ]
    Didn't try and say he didn't have a Republican lean
    But, I would argue that it is far from the oh it is Razzy, their numbers are crap that most on here seem to act like.

    I would be very curious to see how other firms like PPP, Survey USA, ect stack up.  But, they do not have there final projections on a nice sheet like Rasmussen did.


    [ Parent ]
    If they were totally crap we wouldn't post them
    All you need to do is adjust accordingly. See link for 2008 swing state rankings. Worse than ARG is not something to brag about.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling...


    [ Parent ]
    Earlier in the cycle
    Rasmussen was in most cases, the outlier.

    I'd argue that the term "outlier" is the politically correct way to say "crap".

    So while I'd agree that --today-- Rasmussen's numbers are closer to the mainstream of polls, they retain their rep here as a "crap" pollster.

    Even as D voters get engaged and more represented in Rasmussen polls, the "ultra-tight" voter screen I described made for wilder swings after significant events such as primaries. It's not just a "likely voter" screen -- ref http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

    As for how different firms stack up, Nate has collected data on that too. If I remember right, he collected data from '98 onwards, at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen
    never moved to a likely voter model. He only polls likely voters, from start to finish.

    Even his issues-based polling is LV, which I think is bunk, given that issues (e.g. health care reform) will affect all Americans, regardless of whether they vote.


    [ Parent ]
    Field, LA TImes, PPIC, CNN/Time
    all had leads in the 6-9 percent margin, at the same time that Rass was saying 4.

    [ Parent ]
    And just 1
    Two days after PPP said 8.

    [ Parent ]
    I think that's a fair assessment of what'll happen come election night
    This must, however, be the most headache-inducing race for national Republicans, 'cuz Boxer seems incapable of extending her lead beyond the 50% mark, while Fiorina won't budge past 47% and, overall, appears lucky to even reach the 45% mark in most polling. My hunch is Boxer's probably up around 49-43 right now, and if her strong GOTV operation from past cycles holds, she should reach about 52-53% come election night (for a while now, I've thought a 52-45 margin just looks right). I wouldn't take this race for granted, though. Fiorina, to the surprise of many, has run a more polished, competent, gaffe-free campaign than Meg Whitman. She's completely consolidated the GOP base and is keeping Boxer on her toes with Indies. Where she's failed, and what'll do her in on election night, is her inability to siphon-off the necessary Democrats. She'll be lucky to break 10% among them, and she really needs 13-15%.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    This is some great analysis. Thanks!


    [ Parent ]
    Vote for the Rich Whitey!
    Oh, this is just too funny.  Hapless Green Party nominee for IL-Gov, Rich Whitney has had his last name mangled and in a bunch of predominantly black districts in Chicago, will be listed as 'Rich Whitey'!  That's like something out of a B-grade comedy.  He's fussing about it, but I can't imagine that too many people in those districts would be voting for the Green Party anyway, even if it were not represented by a rich whitey. :)

    http://www.suntimes.com/news/e...

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22


    Actually... in the crosstabs...
    ...of recent polling, the green party candidate had a good chunk of African American support.  This gaffe by the election officials could be a big boost to Giannoulias.

    [ Parent ]
    Whitney's running for Governor, not Senator
    As far as I'm aware the Greens have largely been a non-factor in the gubernatorial race -- though maybe this could have an adverse impact on LeAlan Jones's performance?

    Male, 23, DC-At Large

    [ Parent ]
    Coincidence... or conspiracy?


    [ Parent ]
    Mark Kirks "inspectors" are on the case


    [ Parent ]
    Well
    Well, it is Chicago after all, but it seems to clever to have been done deliberately.  I don't think anybody could do that on purpose and lie about it without bursting into gales of laughter.  It would be as if someone had mangled Arnold Schwarzenegger's last name into the racially insensitive version in black districts.  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder . . .
    how much free publicity the underfunded Whitney will get from this across Illinois.  

    In the end, given the GOP and Dem candidates, he may wind up with MORE votes than before this incident.  


    [ Parent ]
    I doubt it
    He is already reasonably known from four years ago when he got 10 percent.

    [ Parent ]
    Markos wants input on where to poll next
    OR-Gov, NE-02


    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    Nice campaigning, douchebag
    I am seriously started to develop a personal hatred for douchebag KS-03 Republican Kevin Yoder, who just skipped out on a debate to hang out in his campaign office.

    http://midwestdemocracyproject...

    His spokeswoman's excuse is weak sauce, too. Cuz yeah, I'm sure that "Women for Yoder Who Want to Take Away Their Own Rights" event wasn't purposely scheduled at that time.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    Perhaps
    Perhaps he had to baby-sit his kids?

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Training a new Padawan perhaps


    [ Parent ]
    Good point
    He probably did want to spend more time with his fake kids...

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    WA-03: Herrera 53, Heck 42
    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

    I don't really believe the margin at all.


    Typical
    Typical for SurveyUSA this season, showing her winning young people.  Did she finally get up off her duff and campaign?  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Typical that they are overstating the wave
    I reckon this one is high single digits at worst.

    [ Parent ]
    My guess from comparing their polls to other WA polls
    Is probably Herrera +5 or so.

    [ Parent ]
    She would be the Martha Coakley of this cycle
    If this cycle hadn't already had Martha Coakley.

    [ Parent ]
    i didn't realize...
    That Herrera had already won in a statewide landslide and was campaigning to win a seat that her party has solidly controlled since 1953.  

    Sorry, it's been my pet peeve of the cycle.  We are understating how huge Martha's fail was by comparing every lazy candidate in any open seat to her.  Martha Coakley and the MA-Sen 2010 don't come around every day.


    [ Parent ]
    also...
    She hasn't lost yet.  No one has.

    [ Parent ]
    Very true
    I have to say though, I think you're overreacting to the Coakley comparisons. It's easy to make her shorthand for a lazy candidate who thinks she's heading for an easy victory, because that's exactly what she was. Anyway, I was sorta joking about my above reference.

    But I think I get what you're really saying - there's way too many Coakley references on this site. Probably true (and I've made more than my share) but you have to admit, it's one of the few non-presidential campaigns that will be memorable thirty years from now (in a bad way).  


    [ Parent ]
    RBS sampled poll
    after all, as any phonebanker can tell you, phone-polling is as relevant now more than ever. Especially if you're relying on optional phone numbers put on a form, which are never disconnected, changed, typoed, and which don't exclude various parts of the electorate. (and SUSA didn't have to change from RBS to RDD in Virginia for reasons that are likely to be similar to what's happening here, oh wait)

    RBS Phone polls are obviously very relevant since technology doesn't change.

    Now, if you don't mind, I need to install a contraband Windows 95 update and I have to restart my PC.

    ;D


    [ Parent ]
    American Families First Action Fund
    also going up against Scott Tipton in CO-03, with a $144K radio buy

    These guys could be
    our saviors. And I just learned of them for the first time yesterday!

    Hopefully, someone like Buffett and Bill Gates, Sr. is funding them to the tune of a billion dollars. Or maybe Babs Streisand has thrown in a couple mill. Anonymously, of course. ;-)


    [ Parent ]
    and NM-02, $36K radio buy
    good to hear

    [ Parent ]
    Majority Action PAC
    Don't know if this has been mentioned, but Majority Action PAC is doing something similar to what another group did a month or so in CO-04: running "attack ads" against the conservative third party candidate, Doug Aden, in hopes of splitting the conservative vote in the district.

    http://www.opensecrets.org/pac...

    They've sent out $60K in mailers in the last two days and have bought $50K in ad time.  They're also buying ad time against Scott Tipton in CO-03.


    Dem internal for IL-Sen
    Giannoulias 44
    Kirk 41
    Green Parly LeAlan Jones 4
    Libertarian Mike Labno 3
    Undecided 8

    http://blogs.suntimes.com/swee...


    Last one was also Giannoulias +3
    It just had fewer undecideds.  Not sure what the point of releasing this was, it's not convincing me they have any momentum, just more of the same in IL-SEN.

    [ Parent ]
    DSCC Spending Reports for today
    http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

    CO-SEN, CT-SEN, IL-SEN, DE-SEN, KY-SEN, MO-SEN, WA-SEN, WV-SEN, PA-SEN

    that's about it.  I think that's where you'll see money at from now on, except switch out MO-SEN for NV-SEN.


    Why
    Why are they still spending on CT-Sen?

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    I can understand that
    More than Delaware.

    [ Parent ]
    Looks like they're fulfilling the $1M they pledged
    hopefully they go dark after this.

    [ Parent ]
    Apparent Democratic outfit has Sink ahead by 6
    registered or likely voters?
    I couldn't tell from the article.

    [ Parent ]
    What is this guy talking about?
    "It's not surprising that liberals are releasing their polls with seriously flawed voter models on what is quickly becoming the worst news day of Alex Sink's career," said Joe Kildea, a spokesman for Scott.

    [ Parent ]
    If that is all they have
    Scott is toast.

    [ Parent ]
    Yea
    I expect this drip, drip, drip of things is going to blunt Sink's thrust against Scott quite a bit.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    You think that is a big deal?
    Seems a bit desperate to me.

    [ Parent ]
    It is 100% desperate and downright ridiculous
    This is third sentence/paragraph in the linked article

    State law prohibits Sink from denying applications simply because of a criminal record. And depending on the offense, there's a waiting period of up to 15 years.

    So Scott is attacking her for probably just following the law?  Waste of time.


    [ Parent ]
    It's a manufactured "news" story n/t


    [ Parent ]
    AK-SEN: Miller 35, Murkowski 34, Adams 27 (Rasmussen)
    hot off the wires!

    Question wording in the race seems to have become standard
    "For this survey, Rasmussen Reports asked respondents about a choice between Miller and McAdams without mentioning Murkowski. That is the choice voters will see when they enter the voting booth. However, when response options were offered to survey respondents, Murkowski's name was mentioned."

    Same as PPP.


    [ Parent ]
    Nice, McAdams is close
    Anything can happen. To quote from DCCyclone (whom I hope comes back to the site soon), this could represent our best pick up opportunity (along with KY-SENATE)

    [ Parent ]
    The trendlines
    Joe Miller's are awful.  Scott and Lisa's are both pretty good.  Right now, all McAdams has to do is pick off 1 out of 4 Murkowski voters to win.  I think it can be done.

    [ Parent ]
    1 in 4 without any going to Miller, you mean
    These polls are forming a very dangerous narrative for McAdams.  He needs to get out of third place soon.

    [ Parent ]
    McAdams has room to grow
    PPP favorables:

    McAdams 44/24 with 30% undecided

    Miller 35/58 with 7% undecided

    Murkowski 48/46 with 6% undecided

    really amazing.  McAdams just has to keep running positive TV ads, and keep up the phone banking.  Best we can hope is that he continues to build, while perceptions about Murkowski/Miller stay about the same.  But you're right, Dems have got to think it's a winnable race for McAdams before they get to the voting booth.


    [ Parent ]
    Oh man...
    ... I hope this comes to pass.

    A McAdams win (or even coming close) would shock all pundits.


    [ Parent ]
    That doesn't sound like the Ivan Moore/PPP method
    It sounds more like "In the United States Senate race between Democrat Scott McAdams and Republican Joe Miller, for whom do you plan to vote?  Press (1) for Scott McAdams.  Press (2) for Joe Miller.  Press (3) for Lisa Murkowski."

    [ Parent ]
    Kind of confusing, but
    They say Murkowski was not mentioned at first

    Exact question wording:

    "1* If the 2010 election for United States senate were held today would you vote for Republican Joe Miller or Democrat Scott McAdams? (Please note that we split the survey to rotate the order of the candidate names, so while half will hear the Republican candidate first, the other half hears the Democrat mentioned first.)"

    I assume they follow up the "neither" respondents with Murkowski as a write-in option.


    [ Parent ]
    Looks like a real three-way race
    With the write-in uncertainty thrown in.  Which may overstate Murkowski's eventual vote total.

    [ Parent ]
    As usual
    the crosstabs are weird, but it shows that there was never a "Rossi" surge; the race has been stable since the primary.

    [ Parent ]
    I can believe that
    Probably closer to CNN/Time though.  

    [ Parent ]
    Don't forget:
    SurveyUSA, another automated polling firm which has shown better results for Mr. Rossi this cycle than most other pollsters, also demonstrates such a pattern. Their final poll of the general election has overestimated the performance of the Republican candidate in each of the nine surveys in our database, and by 4 to 5 points on average.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...


    [ Parent ]
    DCCC expenditures 10/14
    mostly a bunch of mailers in the same districts they're doing ad buys.  only surprise would be VA-11.

    also media buys in a few places that got skipped earlier this week:  SC-05, PA-03, OH-18, OH-16, OH-13, OH-06, NM-02, NC-07, MS-01, AR-01


    They began October
    With twice as much CoH as the NRCC. Gonna need that advantage with all the outside interference.

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...


    [ Parent ]
    Speaking of SC-05
    This race is a complete wild card. There's no polling from the district. What is it on most people's lists as being ripe for Republican takeover?

    Is it because it's South Carolina and that's all?


    [ Parent ]
    POS polled it a couple times
    It was basically a tie each time. Considering their other "polls" it was taken as a good sign.

    [ Parent ]
    Boo yah
    Now, in PA-8, Murphy has got to release an internal to refute that poll from today showing him trailing Mike Fitzpatrick.

    [ Parent ]
    Monmouth poll
    51-46.  Close, but not a lot of undecided.

    http://www.timesleader.com/new...


    [ Parent ]
    Yep.
    That be the one I mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Another SurveyUSA I presume
    Since they did the other Monmouth polls. We shall see.

    [ Parent ]
    No. Monmouth is Monmouth
    school in N.J.  Not affiliated with SUSA.

    [ Parent ]
    I'll look for the link
    But the New Jersey polls they put out were done by SurveyUSA.

    [ Parent ]
    Link below
    SurveyUSA indeed.

    [ Parent ]
    Not sure what to think of Monmouth
    2008 cycle:

    NJ-06
    Monmouth/Gannett, 09/30 - 10/02, Myers +3 over Adler

    Adler of course won, by 4 percent.

    Some of their other statewide polls overestimated the democrat, however.  They seem new to polling PA.


    [ Parent ]
    Sorry, NJ-03 of course


    [ Parent ]
    Monmouth/SurveyUSA
    "The voter list was obtained from Aristotle, Inc. and automated voice interviewing services were
    provided by Survey USA in Clifton, New Jersey."

    http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin...


    [ Parent ]
    hard to tell if the youth vote was screwy
    they don't break it out because their sample only had 131 respondents under age 45!  I'm guessing under 35, probably 50 respondents or less?  the MoE on that subsample is probably astronomical.

    [ Parent ]
    Good digging
    I originally saw the Monmouth memo of the PA-8 race saying that the questions were automated, but I didn't get the SurveyUSA connection.

    Thanks.


    [ Parent ]
    I stand corrected then
    I could have sworn they used to do their own polling, and it wasn't robo.

    [ Parent ]
    It being SurveyUSA
    explains why the undecideds are such a small percentage. I've noticed SurveyUSA frequently has significantly smaller undecideds than other polls of the same race.

    [ Parent ]
    Decent
    A necessary and sensible pushback.  Carney gains 2, Marino 3 compared to last internal poll.

    [ Parent ]
    New ad
    from the DCCC goes the "Law and Order" route to attack Sean Duffy. (This race is gone in my opinion, pull out!)



    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    Nate silver has a good piece on Land line polling bia.
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

    sounds like he is saying it's going to be a problem in the future, but not so much today because pollsters weigh results.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    NY-24
    NRCC has a poll.

    Richard Hanna (R) 46%
    Michael Arcuri (D) 43%
    Undecided 11%

    http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...


    Doubtful yet again
    When Siena had Arcuri up 8 no more than a couple weeks ago.

    [ Parent ]
    Hmmm, a LOST reference in the diary
    ref
    Man, it seems like most pols in Louisiana care about party loyalty as much as the writers of LOST cared about not pissing off their fans after six fucking years of slavishly watching that goddamn... uh, where was I?

    Does that mean that we can talk about LOST now?



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