Google Ads


Site Stats

Mark Penn: Republicans Lead Most Competitive Open Seat Races

by: James L.

Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 1:43 PM EDT


Noted d-bag Mark Penn is out with ten new polls conducted for The Hill. These are all open seat races with departing Democratic incumbents, with the exception of GOP Rep. Charles Djou's race and the open seat being vacated by Mark Kirk.

Penn Schoen for The Hill (10/2-7, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):

AR-01:

Chad Causey (D): 34
Rick Crawford (R): 46

HI-01:

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 41
Charles Djou: 45

IL-10:

Dan Seals (D): 49
Robert Dold (R): 37

MI-01:

Gary McDowell (D): 39
Dan Benishek (R): 42

NH-02:

Ann Kuster (D): 42
Charlie Bass (R): 45

PA-07:

Bryan Lentz (D): 39
Pat Meehan: 40

TN-08:

Roy Herron (D): 37
Stephen Fincher (R): 47

WA-03:

Denny Heck (D): 40
Jaime Herrera (R): 42

WI-07:

Julie Lassa (D): 35
Sean Duffy (R): 44

WV-01:

Mike Oliverio (D): 42
David McKinley (R): 39
James L. :: Mark Penn: Republicans Lead Most Competitive Open Seat Races
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Mark Penn: Republicans Lead Most Competitive Open Seat Races | 36 comments
IL-10
is Kirk's old seat. So that's one with a departing GOP incumbent.
Considering the rose picture this paints for Republicans
I find it interesting that Dold is getting throttled. I also would be curious about the Djou numbers, as it just doesn't seem right that he is winning this district considering it's now a 2-person race and the overwhelming Democratic tilt of the district.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

I don't think it paints that rosy a picture for GOP
Are the numbers better for Republicans than Democrats? By a mile. Most of these are seats we wouldn't have thought would be competitive back in January 2009.

But apart from AR-1, polls find all races that are supposed to be toss-ups within the MoE and even some that many people thought had become sure GOP (WA-3 for instance) are competitive.

HI-1, I don't know. This is 3rd straight poll to find a race within the MoE.

[ Parent ]
If they asked about "Robert Dold"
that just isn't as sexy as "Bob Dold!"
[ Parent ]
I still have major doubts
of most Hawaii polls, in particular national pollsters trying to dip their toes in the water here.  The polls end up being all over their map and often way out of line with final results.

I don't think Djou has a chance of breaking 50% honestly.

[ Parent ]
Good News
I've been telling everyone who will listen this am that I think these polls are good news (relatively speaking) and show a clear path to holding the House for us. I've had the Baird and Stupak seats listed as gone on my chart and the Sestak seat as on the verge of being gone.

If we can flip Hawaii and hold on in the Dold race and then take two of Hodes, Sestak, Stupak, and Baird open seats, I think we'll keep the House.

The South is actually looking pretty good according to the last info I got from a friend at the DCCC. They think we can make it out of there with 4 or 5 losses in competitive races. (Gordon and the two Arkansas seats not counting as competitive)

I'm continuing to hear good things about the Joe Garcia race as well (can't fathom why The Hill didn't poll that one as well.) That's the open seat I'm most curious about currently and numbers have been few and far between there. We win that Hawaii, Illinois, Lousiana and Delaware and our number is 44 instead of 39.

30 year old male, Washington DC

Holding the House is definitely a possibility...
As long as these polls indicate a trend, we're golden. I'm a bit worried about the NRCC ad blitz this week, but it seems like most Democrats in competitive races are relatively flush and can probably compete over the home stretch.

The HI-01 result is weird. I just can't imagine Rep. Djou holding that seat, particularly with Abercrombie and Inouye providing serious Honolulu coattails for (Hawaii State Senate) President Hanabusa.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
And my spin:
1. We're leading in one Republican-held seat listed.

2. Incumbent Charles Djou (R-HI-01) and former incumbent Charlie Bass (R-NH-02) are both below 50%, low-to-mid forties to be exact.

3. The much ballyhooed Pat Meehan (R-PA-07) is stuck at 40% with but a one point lead.

4. Aside from AR-01, TN-08, and WV-01, these are all blue districts.  The Democratic baseline is higher, and even if the Republicans sneak through, they'll have a huge target on their backs for 2012.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Meehan
If you raise 2 million and don't spend it, it won't get you no where.  
[ Parent ]
His debate performance
was just awful. He seems to have trouble thinking.


[ Parent ]
Looks like recruiting the disgraced Bush-era US Attorneys
wasn't such a good idea.  Buchanan got destroyed in her primary, Marino is collapsing in what should be a winnable district for the Republicans, and now Meehan is in trouble.  The only one who's performing as expected is Griffin, and his most important role, really, was pushing Vic Snyder into retirement; any number of Republicans would be doing as well as he is in the open seat.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Note the tightening toward the Dem in many of these races
Tightening confirmed in NH-02, which seemed like a blowout for Bass over the summer, when he led in three UNH polls by 11-18 points. Penn has it at 3. Undecideds could break for Kuster here, if she can successfully portray Bass as a creature of Washington. He's well-known in the district as its former Congressman.

Tie race in PA-07, which is a shocker. Lentz was down 21 in a Republican poll from the summer, and by 4 in the Monmouth poll last week.

Further tightening toward the Dem in WA-08, where Heck was down 9 and 13 in separate SUSA polls. A Dem poll in early September had Heck behind by 3. Here it's at 2.

A complete meltdown for Benishek in MI-01, where Republican polls had him up in the high teens through September. This result actually confirms the R+3 finding of a Democratic survey a couple weeks ago.

I'm disappointed by AR-01 and WI-07, and don't really buy the HI-01 result. Note that the polling period overlaps with a D+4 result from Global Strategy Group. PPP found D+1 at the start of the survey period.

On balance, these polls seem pretty encouraging for Dems.

I agree.
At this point, I am trying to be hopeful, but I am not sure what to think. If we flip the four seats that are expected to go to us, they need to get to 43 before they take the House. That's not a small number, but it definitely looks doable for them.

Hearing about how the Democrats are cutting back, or eliminating entirely, spending in certain House districts isn't making me feel good, but at the same time, that's expected. We were always going to lose seats, and according to my informal read, the list isn't as bad it could be.

Then, when you consider that we have results like the ones above, I start to feel better. I'd need to see some small leads to feel good, but unless the polls aren't taking into account some massive surge of Republicans that will show up on election day, we are doing relatively well, all things considered. I don't have nearly the recollection of races that others on this site do, but it seems like if we can continue to inch upwards and bring a good ground operation, we won't experience the massacre some are predicting.

I just hope that we aren't missing something big when we see numbers like this.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't get disheartened
by the cutbacks from the DCCC in certain districts. By doing that (if they're making the right choices, of course), they're actually making it more likely that we hold onto the seats to which they redirect the money.
[ Parent ]
I'm not reallydisheartened
by what is happening. It makes sense, especially when the odds are stacked against your side, to do things like this. It's hard to keep track of all this stuff, but it seems like we are moving in the right direction in a lot of places. If we can keep this momentum up, and bring our strong ground operation where we have it, we will do better than expected.

As I said earlier, assuming we take the four seats many expect us to take, they need to take 43 to get the majority. If we are going to keep the House, I think an overall plan lies around holding on to districts in states where the Democrat running for governor is likely to do well to very well, like California and New York. If a few Democrats here or there can ride coattails, and we can salvage enough random seats around the country, I think we can hold the House. Eighty or so seats might be up for grabs, or so the pollsters say, but it's unlikely they will do that well.

Basically, if in the next week or so, we see ties or small leads, and the Democrats use this to excite their base, I think things will go well, or at least better than expected.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It might not just be 4 seats (odd as that may seem this year)
There's been a bevy of polls (admittedly mostly internals, but the WA-08 has been verified) recently showing thought-to-be-safe incumbent Republicans in close races. There's a diary on Kos talking about an internal for Wally Herger's seat in CA-02 and it sounds like there may be smoke to go with that fire.  As has been mentioned ad nauseum, Republicans are, on a whole, even less popular than the Dems; hence, it stands to reason that if you're a Republican incumbent, you might not be as safe as you think.

There's likely to be an avalanche of surprises on both sides of the aisle come the morning of Nov 3rd.  Unfortunately, there are probably also a host of Feingolds in the House that b/c it's not on the same scale, will be missed.  I'd bet Feingold pulls it out for plenty reasons, but some in obscurity might not be so lucky.

On a similar note, this is mostly a feeling (although polls have it close), but I suspect we'll soon be adding FL-25 to the likely pick-ups.  We have too good a candidate whilst they are saddled with a true psycho (and the district isn't that red).

[ Parent ]
Herger??
Link please?  That's a little difficult to believe, if you've ever spent time in CA-02.
[ Parent ]
The notable thing
is that it's all happening in fairly strongly Blue or strongly Blue trending/near tipping territory.  

This election is turning regional.

[ Parent ]
I hope so...
Rove's group is about to spend 50 million  dollars on house races...  hopefully, it backfires.
[ Parent ]
Internals
The internals on the polls looked fairly decent to me, but 2 things jumped out.  First, in HI-01, 39% of those polled were white and 39% Asian-American.  The demographics of that district (admittedly, not the same as a likely voter pool) are 19% white and 54% Asian.

Second, in WI-07, 45% of those surveyed were Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters.  In '08, Obama won that district by 14%.  I'm sure there won't be a +14 Obama voter gap in WI-07 this year, but it should be better than even.

Quite a few of these
don't look that bad at all to me.

The Southern seats definitely look writeoff-ish, but things are close in the rest of the country.

I had the open Southern seats written off from day one
So these numbers are pretty decent.
[ Parent ]
Does anyone have any updates on NH-01?
NH-02 is looking as good as it can look in a bad Democratic year.  Kuster is a good candidate.

Is Shea Porter done for or what?  She should be able to hammer Guinta on his shady financial stuff.



21,Democrat, NY-02, male

FL-25
Why am I not surprised that there is not a poll on Florida 25? I talked about this yesterday but this dbag doesn't even poll seats that could be more advantageous to Democrats. Such is life though. The FL-25 is seat that really deserves a good polling and I would put it as a swing district seat. Actually these numbers aren't really that bad as they basically say that that the races are dead heats apart from AR-01, TN-08, and WI-07 all of which I have team blue losing. Combine that with many of the numbers have a lot of undecided voters along with the MOE and you have a jump ball.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
I hope you are right.
As I said just a few seconds ago, momentum can do a lot. Some seats will be lost, but we have so many that a loss of 30, considering the circumstances, wouldn't be bad, nor would any number that lets us keep the House. I imagine a large portion of those who need an extra push out the door into the voting booth will get such a boost if they see encouraging results.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yeah, 6/10 of these polls are GOOD NEWS
Given that aside from HI-01 and IL-10, they're seats the Republicans are expected to win.

Personally, I'd written off the Arkansas and Tennessee open seats months ago. WI-07 is a shame. HI-01 is either going to be nail-biter or the polls are horribly wrong again.

27, Democratic, IL-01

Sestak
One wonders whether Sestak being on the ballot will give Lentz the boost he needs.  Tanner would have held his district, you could tell he was interested in how the race was going to turn out, holding meeting with Blue Dog type candidates, shame he didn't run again.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

[ Parent ]
Sestak GOTV
My thought was that if the PA-07 holds at a tie, AND as the article says that Obama has 56% favorable in the district, that a strong statewide GOTV which I hope is in the works for the Senate/Gov race will help pull Lentz over the finish line.
[ Parent ]
Well if Penns political skills are anything like his polls
they are probably crap. That being said they aren't that bad for us. The only reason I think the GOP has a shot at the House is because of our shitty numbers in the Midwest. If we can make at least somewhat of a comeback in the midwest I doubt they have a shot. I think Obamas popularity in the Midwest though helped us win/hold a lot of seats we shouldn't have won and it's coming back to bite us now. But thats fine because in 12 he will probably be just as strong or at least nearly as strong there and it should help up win back seats like WI-07 or any Illinois/Michigan seats we lose assuming the GOPers don't win the trifecta in these states and redistrict the hell out of them.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
Il-10
Lock it down. There's enough polling at this point.

The rest of the polls look about right. I'll take people at their word about HI-01 being hard to poll.

HI-01
I am having a real hard time believing Djou is ahead of Hanabusa. I keep thinking about the fact that Dems got about 108,000 votes in the primary and the fact that the total general election vote in the midterms has never been more than 190,000. It has been a long time since I took a math class but even I know 108,000 is more than half of 190,000. Hanubasu wins by double digits.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Commenter above
said that the internals show 39% Asian participation in a district that's 54% Asian. Perhaps, as seems typical for this district, Asians refused to be polled at higher rates?

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

[ Parent ]
Mostly ambiguous.
    Close races with both candidates hovering around 40.  Lassa is doing very badly, and Seals is doing very well.

  These polls suggest a continuation of the realignment.  Conservadems are doing very poorly in southern/rural districts. Suburban Democrats, however, are doing fine in comparison.

  Roy Herron announced he won't be voting for Nancy Pelosi.  That's always a dead give-away as a last-ditch effort to win the seat.  It never works.

24, Male, GA-05

It wont matter
to a conservative electorate. Your a Democrat and your are going to be thrown out. That's their thought process. It doesn't matter how conservative you are. If they can get someone more conservative they will jump at it.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
These polls are good news IMO
I had written off PA-7 and NH-2, and the fact that WV-1 and WA-3 areso competitive speaks volumes. I think dems can hold the House if this keeps up.

22, male, VA-10
Long time no see
Nice to see you back here.

I'm fairly pessimistic, given the macro-level conditions - high unemployment plus the risk of a huge implosion from tremendous foreclosure fraud by banks - but I hope the Republicans are in fact so unpopular that voters don't just punish the Democrats for being ineffective in really fixing the economy, due to a lack of sufficiently radical measures - partly their own doing and partly due to almost all the Republicans voting "No" on almost everything.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Mark Penn: Republicans Lead Most Competitive Open Seat Races | 36 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox