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SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 8:02 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: A new PAC called "Alaskans Standing Together" has spent $600K on ads for Lisa Murkowski, a pretty huge sum for the state. AST filed with the FEC as a so-called "Super PAC," as the Washington Independent puts it, which allows them to "raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, so long as they do so entirely independent of candidates or political parties." Sounds a lot like a 527, except that AST will (supposedly) have to file its donor lists with the FEC. One of their ads is here - almost sounds like a Dem spot, except for the fact that Scott McAdams' ads have been far better than this.
  • CT-Sen: Talking Points Memo went digging into an old story about a former WWF referee who, after making claims that Vince McMahon sexually assaulted her, was sued by both Vince and Linda McMahon in the early `90s. (They also sued Geraldo Rivera, on whose show the ref made her allegations.) The McMahons eventually dropped their suit after a year... but now that TPM is writing about it, their lawyer has threatened TPM with legal action.
  • WV-Sen: Trying to understand why Politico is presenting this as a new story, when we knew two weeks ago that zillionaire asshole John Raese loudly and proudly announced that he doesn't support the minimum wage.
  • NV-Gov: Is this story going to blow up in the same way the Meg Whitman housekeeper story did? A woman says she cleaned Brian Sandoval's home back in the late `90s while she was an illegal immigrant, and that Sandoval never asked her for documentation. Sandoval and his wife are claiming they don't know the woman.
  • SC-Gov: Winthrop University (10/5-10, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Vincent Sheheen (D): 37
    Nikki Haley (R): 46
    Undecided: 13
    (MoE: ±3.6%)

  • TN-08: Looks like Roy Herron is trying to make the most of the news that the DCCC's abandoning him: He's claiming it's because he won't support Nancy Pelosi. Gotta give the dude credit for trying - there's lemonade in there somewhere!
  • UT-02: A poll by the Utah Policy Center apparently shows Rep. Jim Matheson leading Republican Morgan Philpot 46-30, with 20% undecided. The full details are behind a paywall, so we don't know the field dates or voter screen.
  • DCCC: Ah, the panzers are definitely reconsolidating now, for real. The Fix's Aaron Blake has a detailed writeup of the D-Trip's ongoing triage efforts. As we mentioned yesterday, it looks like Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Steve Dreihaus (OH-01), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) are being left on the cutting room floor. In addition, Blake confirms his earlier tweet that Trent van Haaften (IN-08), Roy Herron (TN-08 - see above), and Stephene Moore (KS-03) are also apparently on their own as they defend open seats. Two "good" cancellations were also made in LA-02 and DE-AL, where Dem pickup chances are looking good. (Remember that even in 1994, Dems won four open seats.) But really, click through and read the whole piece, as Blake has details of cuts made all around the country - though he notes that many are small and may just represent resource shifts.
  • SSP TV:

    • NY-Gov: Andy Cuomo touts the Medicaid Fraud unit at the AG's office, then attacks Carl Paladino as a shady insider
    • AL-02: Bobby Bright explains that he's basically more-or-less a Republican
    • NH-02: Annie Kuster hits Charlie Bass on a common theme, "raising his own pay" while a member of Congress
    • PA-Sen: Two Joe Sestak ads on the same theme: the first points out what would have happened to retirement savings over the last couple of years had Social Security been privatized (per Pat Toomey's wishes); the second features seniors saying basically the same thing

    Independent Expenditures:

    • PA-10: The DCCC spends $47K attacking Tom Marino - I'm wondering if some of this is for web ads, since there's an $8 charge from GoDaddy (and the sums are smallish, though possibly radio-level)
    • Realtors: Spend $1.3 mil helping Dems Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Dennis Cardoza (CA-18), John Adler (NJ-03), and Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Morning Edition)
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    DSCC poll has Sestak up by 2
    If Geoff Garin says Sestak is ahead by 2,
    we should take that seriously.

    Fingers crossed.  


    [ Parent ]
    Here comes Sestak!
    A repeat of the primary finish perhaps?  There's no early voting in Pennsylvania, and a lot of races this year have swung wildly in the last 2 to 3 weeks (think Scott Brown, Todd Tiahrt though he still lost, Sharron Angle, etc).  I've thought all along that Sestak had a good chance to win this one and that he was behind because of Toomey's early ad blitz as well as the mood.  It's clear that this is going to be a fight to the finish although Toomey is still ahead until corroboration of this poll comes.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    I like Sestak's chances
    I thought that this race would tighten as we come into November.  Hopefully we will see some other polls showing that Sestak has surged.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    That sounds very encouraging
    I could be wrong, but I think this is the first time we've seen an internal with Sestak leading.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    I've seen Sestak signs and stickers all throughout the 12th and 5th
    His ads are also drowning out the Toomey ads that have been running non-stop in these areas. For every Toomey ad, there has been a countering Sestak ad.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Just as I suspected
    After more than a decade out of politics,  Kasich has forgotten how to close.  I've always thought that if any Dem governor in the country can buck the bad economy on the strength of strong campaigning, it's Ted Strickland.  The man is a machine.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    [ Parent ]
    I never thought he had it in him...
    ...but, Strickland is really campaigning well.  His ads on the internet are EVERYWHERE... youtube, banners, etc.  For such an old timer politician to have a strong Internet presence is impressive.  He also is doing a great job of debating and he is really working his retail campaigning.

    There are lots of Portman yard signs in places there shouldn't be, but few of them are paired with Kasich signs.  I always felt that Kasich was too much of a teabagger for Ohio.  the fact that he's not running away with the race proves it.


    [ Parent ]
    Another fight
    Kasich has been leading from 1-4 points in almost all polls taken the last two weeks or so.  This one is going to come down to GOTV for Strickland, and that's an area where he is historically strong.  The ODP has gotten better in this regard in recent years too because of the Kerry and Obama ground operations in Ohio in 2004 and 2008.  I've already had three canvassers come to my door this election cycle, FWIW.  If they are hitting democratic areas of the state like that, Strickland will do well.  


    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Question
    Stephen -

    Quick question for you that I am sure you have answered already so pardon repeating it. Is there early voting in OH? This would certainly be of use for Strickland if this is the case I would imagine.

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    [ Parent ]
    Early voting started last week
    I don't know exactly how long it runs for though, if it's all the way through E-day or if there is a time limit on it.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Thank you
    -nm

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    No time limit...
    Early voting runs through to election day... can be done in person or via no-excuse absentee balloting.

    [ Parent ]
    "Super PACs"
    This is the result of the SpeechNow decision, which held that if individuals could do unlimited independent expenditures, so could groups of individuals -- and now, thanks to Citizens United, groups of individuals and corporations intermingled as well.

    Kanjorski trails by 7 in PA-11
    47-40.  F & M poll.  Sestak and Toomey are tied in the district.

    http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_av...


    If Sestak can win this district
    and win the Philly burbs by a few points, he'll win the state. A Bill Clinton visit to Scranton could be quite useful.

    [ Parent ]
    If Sestak does not win this district
    He has problems. This is a Democratic district, Kanjo is just that unpopular.  

    [ Parent ]
    Interesting Nate Silver analysis
    of the tribulations of polling Washington State and its mail-in voting system.

    Good news for Murray if the historical trends of pollster bias show up this year.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    w/r/t WA State voting patterns
    One thing that opened my eyes was the '00 election where Maria Cantwell beat Slade Gorton.

    She seemed close but too far behind on election night. I had lost hope because I thought the old rules of thumb for late votes also held true in WA state, namely that absentees always break for Rs.

    Of course I was wrong -- and what's held true since is that late votes in WA state, especially those mailed close to or on election day, always break (relatively) for the D.

    So if Murray is a bit behind on election night, don't despair.


    [ Parent ]
    pa-10 godaddy.com, really?
    I thought the only people who used that were stupid kids who got tricked into thinking they were buying porn.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    FL-Sen
    Is this the big Crist announcement?

    RFK, Jr. endorses:

    http://thepage.time.com/2010/1...

    Male, 23, NJ-12


    if it is
    i hope he didn't think that was game changing.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    I know
    Because well...it's not.

    Really though, the only endorsement that could really matter at this point is Obama or a Bush, especially Jeb.  And unless Meek drops out (which he won't), Obama won't endorse.  As for the Bushes, I think that ship sailed long before the primary.

    Male, 23, NJ-12


    [ Parent ]
    Jeb and Crist are political enemies
    so that's pretty much that.  Did Jeb endorse Rubio once Crist Indy?  I don't remember seeing that and I'd be surprised if he hadn't.

    [ Parent ]
    Jeb endorsed
    Rubio during the Republican primary when Crist was still in.

    Male, 23, NJ-12

    [ Parent ]
    Ras now has Kitzhaber up
    and Strickland and Mitchell within the MoE.  Quinn numbers should be out today, since Ras polled IL-SEN yesterday.  Tide really seems to be turning in governor's races.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Senate too
    PA, NV, IL, WV and WA all look better than they did two days ago.

    [ Parent ]
    what's weird
    at pollster at least, is that most of maine polls show undecided between 20-36% of the vote, arguably putting in contention with everyone else on the ballot.  

    Also, as Taegan Goddard noted yesterday, mitchell hasn't gone past 30 or 32, so while lepage is plummeting, she's languishing.  who knows, cutler might win.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


    [ Parent ]
    20-26%
    not 36%

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Maine's nickname should be "The Undecided State"
    their primary was ridiculous, all of the candidates were bunched together in all the polls because nobody knew who anybody was.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Haha
    I find Maine fascinating politically. I wish more states would be open to electing an Independent as Governor.

    Maine seems like it's in it's own little world politically.


    [ Parent ]
    My home state might elect an Indy governor...
    but sadly I suspect not (Caprio seems to pulling away). and of course Chafee is very well-known and popular. but hey, when you're the smallest state, gotta distinguish yourself somehow.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    i still think a late surge a la Ventura
    Is very possible for the Indy candidate in MN.  The largest paper here has a giant hard on for the guy and it's a foregone conclusion they'll endorse him, which should be a giant boost to his campaign as he'll have real legitimacy with voters then I'd think.

    [ Parent ]
    agreed!
    This the first time I've gotten type that in response to you?  :)

    [ Parent ]
    AL-02
    If claiming that

    A) You'll vote your district not party

    B) You'll vote for a centrist

    C) You're ranked the most independent legislator

    means that you're "basically more-or-less a Republican", then we'll be sitting in a permanent minority in no time!

    Let's go purity!!!!


    Over the past decade...
    Only twice or three times has a Democrat voted against his party's candidate as Speaker.

    I realize it's now become a trend, but Bright launched it - and my point is that condition B is not something you can afford allowing caucus members to dictate. Talk about giving Blue Dogs absolutely all the control.


    [ Parent ]
    Bright
    He's said he'd vote for a centrist, while specifically mentioning that he would NOT vote for Pelosi OR Boehner.

    Bright and Taylor could easily vote Present, or  possibly someone like Skelton.

    Everyone is ignoring the behind the scenes process. There's always the chance that Pelosi will NOT be the nominee. If the Caucus finds out there's enough of a protest by the membership, it seems reasonable to suggest they'd nominate someone else.

    And, in case you're curious:

    http://clerk.house.gov/evs/200...

    2001 - Taylor voted for Murtha      Gutierrez, Lipinksi, Stark did not vote

    http://clerk.house.gov/evs/200...

    2003 - Taylor voted for Murtha, Hall, Lucas, Stenholm voted "Present", Hooley did not vote

    http://clerk.house.gov/evs/200...

    2005 - Gutierrez, Honda did not vote

    http://clerk.house.gov/evs/200...

    2007 - All voted for Pelosi

    http://clerk.house.gov/evs/200...

    2009 - Gutierrez did not vote


    [ Parent ]
    But that's just stunning they'd have that power.
    When is the last time a small minority of a caucus managed to throw out a party leader? It's one thing to break with your party on every single important vote (which Bright does, and to some degree I don't blame him given how red his district is), that can be tolerated if you come from such conservative districts, it's another to actually force your leadership to be ousted. Just a whole other level - the Dem caucus already has no discipline, talk about giving up any hope that liberals will ever get anything.

    I'm also just not sure about this as an electoral strategy: Sure, Pelosi is unpopular. But how many of these "angry" voters are looking to overthrow Democrats because of Pelosi rather than because they want to throw out the party of power because they haven't done enough in a time of economic crisis; throw out the entire Democratic Congress; etc. Just focusing your defense on how you don't like Pelosi doesn't really address the broader anger - and doesn't do anything to convince voters they shouldn't mind having Democrats in control.


    [ Parent ]
    Small Minority?
    Blue Dogs alone make up 21 percent of the Caucus, that's not exactly small, especially considering the Blue Dogs have on membership. We don't know the true number of members who would join the Caucus, so the percentage could be much higher.

    If this election ends up being awful for us, and it does come down to a few seats, the Blue Dogs and New Democrats could easily come together and force the Caucus to nominate someone else. Add in disgruntled members of the CBC and even the CPC and there's no telling what could happen.

    Whether it's fairly deserved or not, Pelosi is a lightning rod. As far as an electoral strategy, the Democrats could nominate someone else as Speaker and proclaim it a "new day" or something. Sure, the next Speaker will be targeted by the GOP, but if the Caucus picked someone VIEWED as less divisive, that person might not be attacked nearly as bad.

    When is the last time you've had sitting members of Congress openly say "no, I will not vote for the current leader in my party if I am re-elected"?

    Normally we always hear the "well I'm undecided" or "that's something later down the road, I'm focused on campaigning now", but a flat out rejection of the sitting leader seems rare to me.


    [ Parent ]
    Yet they are still a minority.
    The Progressive caucus makes up the large majority in the house democratic caucus. In fact they are the largest organized group in the house. They would not allow the minority in the party dictate who will lead them. Besides the fact that it is only a fraction of blue dogs whom are saying directly they won't vote for Speaker Pelosi. I just can't see it happening. If she were to decide to step down another progressive would become the leader of the house democrats.  

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    I think it might perhaps be better
    to switch over to Steny Hoyer, personally, if Democrats hold the house.

    [ Parent ]
    She has been one
    Of the most effective Speakers ever. So I really don't see the party desposing of her. Especially if they keep the majority.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    They won't be 21% of the caucus after the election...
    They will be lucky to make up 10% after that...

    [ Parent ]
    Even 20%
    Isn't convincing enough to allow them to hijack the rest of the caucus.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    Probable solution: more voice in the D House agenda
    That way, Ds who said that they would vote against Pelosi can save face.

    And the reality is that with a reduced D majority (or even a minority), the bills that can be passed will have more of a blue dog tinge.

    So a larger blue dog voice in the D House agenda would likely happen in the next Congress anyways.

    And then blue dogs can go back to their constituents with that "accomplishment" in hand.


    [ Parent ]
    Less divisive
    or weak and ineffective? If the Republicans always vote "No" on everything, how does an effective Speaker get viewed as bipartisan? It's impossible. As far as I can see, there's only being effective in getting legislation through, or looking like a spineless failure. And, ironically, if voters cut the Democrats' margin the both Houses and the Democrats thereby become less effective, voters will presumably get even angrier that the Democrats weren't able to get the economy to improve, etc.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    The question really is...
    When is the last time a few votes could make a difference?  When is the last time the House has been clsoe enough that a couple of Reps could make the difference?  I remember the Republicans being in the minority but taking control of the Assembly in NJ in 1971:

    From politickernj.com:

    Assembly Speaker, 1971: Democrats picked up nineteen seats in the 1971 mid-term election, giving them a 40-39 majority. (Anthony Imperiale of Newark's North Ward was elected to the Assembly as an independent.)  A group of four Democrats led by then-Assembly Minority Leader David Friedland (D-Jersey City) cut a deal with Republicans to elect Republican Thomas Kean (R-Livingston) as Speaker.  


    [ Parent ]
    Don't forget the California Assembly in 1994
    The Dems ended up voting two Republicans in as speaker (as well as briefly keeping Willie Brown on) although the Republicans had a majority. It took two years for the Republicans to elect a speaker supported by the majority of their own caucus.  

    [ Parent ]
    Or Tennesee last year, or
    the coup de tat against that Texas Speaker a year ago.  

    [ Parent ]
    Coup d'etat, please
    It means "Blow to the state" in French. No offense, please; it just looked too weird to think it had something to do with tattoos. :-)

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    PA State House, 2007
    Dems had a one-vote majority, but at least one Dem was set to defect to vote for the Republican candidate for Speaker -- so the Dems instead nominated moderate Republican Dennis O'Brien as Speaker to retain control. Fun story.

    [ Parent ]
    When is the last time a small minority of a caucus managed to throw out a party leader?
    At the end of Gingrich's time; apparently it was only a dozen who were insisting on various things, like not breaking his term limit, or not replacing him with another adulterer right after they made adultery a campaign issue.

    [ Parent ]
    And then
    They elected Bob Livingston to replace him and he had to resign because of an extramarital affair.  

    [ Parent ]
    thanks for doing the leg work


    [ Parent ]
    and on a political note
    If Pelosi has to go, we will really need to pick another woman so as not to piss off feminists.  Having Hillary lose and then removing the highest ranked woman politician in history for, well, stupid reasons, is going to be extremely disheartening for us.

    [ Parent ]
    It would be one of the worst things they could
    Do after the election. It would only serve to piss if the left even more. Possibly tearing the party apart.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    the answer...
    Hillary for Speaker!*

    *Constitutionally, the Speaker doesn't have to be a member of the House.  I always thought making someone like Del. Holmes-Norton the Speaker would really piss of the Republicans.  


    [ Parent ]
    :)
    Or we could just keep one of the best Speakers ever!

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    Six Blue Dogs (not including Jane Harmon who is clearly not a Pelosi ally)...
    are from California, plus the Blue Dog caucus is about to have a real thinning of their ranks (thanks to retirements and potential losses) and they're going to come more from the Midwest and South than from the west coast (where Pelosi will likely have a base of support).

    And, as I've said before, there's no reason to believe that the Blue Dog caucus would be united in support against Pelosi (or that even a majority of Blue Dogs or New Democrats even oppose Pelosi.

    And bullying the caucus into removing its preferred choice for Speaker by threatening a Republican congress is unforgivable to me (and ideology doesn't play a role in it, if the majority of the Democratic caucus genuinely wants a different Speaker-nominee then it's frustrating but that's the way it goes sometime).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Key word
    "Majority"

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    Damn right let's go purity.
    Fuck this horseshit that says it's somehow "pragmatic" to incorporate into our party the very things we say we're trying to fight.

    Hopefully, the Republicans will take out our garbage for us this election.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    [ Parent ]
    as well as our majority?
    now there is a real solution.......

    [ Parent ]
    Thinking the same
    Don't have to worry about who will and won't vote for Pelosi if Republicans had the majority.

    Martha Roby doesn't waffle on the idea - she'd vote for Boehner. Is that better then someone who votes Present?

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    [ Parent ]
    Uhhh-huhhhh
    We're in the position we're in because of the ConDems.  That's what happens when the promise of a majority goes no where.  That's what happens when "Democrats" stall and obstruct their own party's agenda.  That's what happens when "Democrats" spout the same talking points as the Republicans.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    DeMint?
    So basically you're a left wing Jim DeMint? Purity above all else, even if it means being in the minority.

    I mean, that's essentially what you're advocating.

    You can argue that the majority does absolutely nothing, but, would you say that a Democratic majority doing nothing is better than having a Republican majority that apparently opposes most (if not all) of the things you advocate?

    At least with a Democratic majority, there's a possibility of something happening that you'd support.

    Politics is not 0% or 100%, no matter how bad you want it to be.


    [ Parent ]
    Not DeMint
    The difference is that the Republicans are already united in their economic views.  DeMint represents the tyranny of small differences.  There are major differences between progressive and blue dogs when it comes to economic policy.

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    I say he's similar to DeMint because DeMint has said:

    "I'd rather have 40 Marco Rubios than 60 Arlen Specters,"

    I read the same thing from TheUnknown's remarks. We've had long threads on this same topic before and it always boils down to the same thing.

    The purity route does nothing for the party.


    [ Parent ]
    So would I
    Forty Marco Rubios is a 60/40 Senate. Sixty Arlen Specters plus 40 other Democrats is a 100/0 Senate!

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    No, whoring ourselves out does nothing for our party.
    The inability to formulate or deciminate a message does nothing for our party.

    The inability to translate majorities into policy does nothing for the party.

    The inability to offer alternatives to the other party (other than a weak "We're not them!") does nothing for our party.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    [ Parent ]
    LOL, it is YOU that's like DeMint.
    After all, you both have a fondness for politicians who think that preventing people from dying because of lack of insurance (or crappy insurance) costs too much but cutting Bill Gates' taxes and increasing the deficit even more is just great.  You both have a fondness for pro-discrimination, anti-choice, anti-environment, warmongering misanthropes.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly right
    The achilles heel with the "big tent" approach is an inability to govern, or governing with great difficulty.  It's happened to the last three Democratic presidents.

    [ Parent ]
    And look what happened in 1994 and sadly, possibly, 2010.
    The tremendous opportunities of the first years of the Clinton and Obama administrations, complete with sizeable majorities in both houses of Congress, have been squandered thanks to the ConDems.  Big tents are for circuses.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    its a pretty heavily Republican conservative district
    So voting your district pretty much implies Republicanism

    [ Parent ]
    Ergo, what's the fucking point?
    Why piss money away in a district where the old boss is the same as the new boss.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    If you actually look at their voting records, they're not the same.

    I know, that's an insane concept, but Bright votes more often with Democrats than Everett did.

    Besides, some of these Conservative Democrats you cannot stand add up to extra committee seats. Seats that might not go to Conservative Democrats.

    Last time I checked, committees are important.


    [ Parent ]
    i think big tent
    is how you need to win. that being said, bright and minnick are the two i couldn't support. every other blue dog, i'm ok with.

    18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

    [ Parent ]
    Heh
    I'm amused at being called a purity troll.

    [ Parent ]
    To whoever asked us two be more civil
    this is why I get on Ruraldem's case.  Same thing over and over again.  The Republicans on this board accept they're on a Democratic blog, Ruraldem should accept they're on a progressive one.  There was period where this blog went through these discussions at least every other day.  Then Ruraldem stopped posting as much and those thread clogging, go nowhere, rehash a million times over discussions stopped.

    Hence my rudeness.


    [ Parent ]
    Owens by 5 over Doheny in Siena poll
    http://www.syracuse.com/news/i...

    Have to say I'm surprised.  But there are still a lot of undecided.


    This is kind of odd,
    and might suggest that it understates the actual Hoffman margin:

    The poll found Owens leads Doheny, 44 percent to 39 percent, among voters who were informed that Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman dropped out of the race and endorsed Doheny.

    If respondents are told by the pollster that one candidate "endorsed" another, it will probably boost support for the endorsee, no?


    [ Parent ]
    Special case here
    Since they had to distinguish whether Hoffman was still running. The poll has Owens up 11 if voters believe that Hoffman was still actively campaigning. I think if enough Hoffman voters get the message that he is backing Doheny then Doheny has the edge. The big question is whether or not that happens, especially in such a sprawling district as the 23rd.  

    [ Parent ]
    scozzafava got somewhere around 5% IIRC
    And she dropped out like the week before.

    [ Parent ]
    True but
    she endorsed Owens, not Hoffman. Here we have Hoffman endorsing Doheny. Stands to reason he would benefit in this case. Hoffman also did him a favor by ditching a month in advance, although if he REALLY had wanted to help he would have dropped out earlier and gotten off the line entirely. It's entirely possible Hoffman's 3-6% that he might get still will swing this to Owens.  

    [ Parent ]
    The crosstabs suggest care with the questions
    First, they polled all 3, as if they were all still running --

    Q16. If the election for Member of Congress from the 23rd Congressional District was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

    Owens/Doheny/Hoffman 42/31/15

    Then they informed their pollees (is that the right noun adjective?) of Hoffman's decision

    Q17. (If voting for Hoffman) Doug Hoffman has suspended his campaign and asked his supporters to vote for Matt Doheny. Knowing that, will you:

    Hoffman voters redistributed 16/47/8

    Final result -

    Owens/Doheny/Hoffman 44/39/1

    While it may seem strange that any Hoffman voters would go for Owens, it's consistent with his moderate image, along with lingering distrust of the R party establishment. (They picked Scozzafava, after all.)

    IMO, Siena is the gold standard in NY. In their last poll before the special in '09, their top line was messed up because it happened as Scozzafava withdrew --

    But their crosstabs were golden. I took a reasonable redist of Scozzafava's vote based on their crosstabs, and came close to the final result.


    [ Parent ]
    I remember that
    Most of the undecided were liberals yet Mark Blumenthal said it was wishful thinking to extrapolate like we did.

    [ Parent ]
    The thing is,
    when voters go into the voting booth, they're not going to have a voice telling them who endorsed whom, or even that a candidate has suspended his campaign. Sure, this information will be available to them in the news and perhaps in campaign ads, but some voters will not know, and some will know and may want to vote the Conservative line anyway.

    I'm not saying this makes a huge difference, just that it could have had a marginal effect.


    [ Parent ]
    Hayworth 46 Hall 43 in NY 19
    http://www.lohud.com/article/2...

    The part of the district west of the Hudson, Orange County, is what's hurting Hall.


    Look at how well Cuomo is doing
    It is conceivable that his coattails could save dens in NY.  

    [ Parent ]
    Bishop leads by 12 in NY 1
    http://www.newsday.com/long-is...

    Surprised by the margin.


    Definitely surprising
    12 is higher than I would have expected. I'd love to take a look at the poll. Stupid Newsday paywall.  

    [ Parent ]
    Generic v. district
    Based on these Siena polls, and other recent house polls, I'm seeing a disconnect between the generic numbers and the district by district numbers is many of the closest contested races.  Which raises the possibilities:

    1.  The generics are off the mark
    2.  The district polls are understating Republican support
    3.  There will be surprises in races not being polled
    4.  There is a geographic imbalance in the generics.

    It could be the latter.  Republicans might run up huge margins in the south, the mountain west and parts of the middle west.  And either tied or trailing in the other regions.


    In many of the same polls generic R leads but actual Dems do better. Not really surprising
    Considering the quality of many Republican nominees. What Siena also shows is once again the vast majority of GOP "polls" are complete garbage.

    [ Parent ]
    While there's definitely a generic element to this year's house races
    The relative quality of D candidates, along with the collective power of incumbency, means that R's have to run up a relatively large generic margin to overcome our current advantages in the House.

    In other words,

    1) where Ds localize their races, the generic vote matters a lot less

    1a) Look at the cross-tabs for the NY-23 Siena poll. (I suspect similar analyses are possible with other individual district polls.) There's near majority support for Tea Partiers in the district, along with support for repeal of HCR (Owens even supported the "public option"). If Owens were "generic D," he'd be behind.

    1b) Owens' re-elect number is awful (40% favoring/45% against)

    1c) Doheny significantly underperforms the 45% number, which suggests another sub-par R candidate. Alternatively, Owens overperforms his re-elect number, which suggests teh power of incumbency, even for someone whose been there only for a year.

    (I know, I've frequently railed against the use of cross-tabs in the past. But I was fric**in amazed at the quality of the Siena cross tabs as we watched the NY-23 special last year.)

    2) when Ds are the incumbent, a significant number of people say "I want to vote for the R, but I'll vote for my incumbent, because s/he's done well by me" (possibly including personal contact, constituency service, etc.)


    [ Parent ]
    Near majority support for the tea party
    RIDICULOUS! That would mean it's at double the national levels for this moderate, Democratic leaning upstate seat.  

    [ Parent ]
    Supporting data
    The 45% support of the Tea Party listed in the poll almost perfectly matches the support that Doug Hoffman got in '09.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm starting to think there may be something
    to this.  

    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen
    Geez, Ras may as well just start doing a tracking poll for NV-Sen as much as he keeps going there.  No real news, Angle up by one:
    Angle 49
    Reid  48

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22


    Only One?
    Didn't she lead by 5 in the last Ras poll?

    [ Parent ]
    Last week was 4
    Then he had it at 2 in his Faux/Pulse incarnation yesterday.

    [ Parent ]
    For F0X it was 4
    PPP is keeping him straight methinks. Look for the same in WV-Sen next time and also WA-Sen. Which is exactly what happened after the last Elway.

    [ Parent ]
    Do I have to say it again?
    Well, do I? ;-)

    Nope, I'll let Tom Jensen from PPP do it for me!

    Usually the conventional wisdom is that a tie race means the incumbent will lose but in the case of Nevada there are a couple big reasons why the tie might go to Harry Reid.

    The first is that the polling in Nevada was the worst of any swing state in 2008 (well actually it turned out Nevada wasn't a swing state but everyone thought it was because the polling showed a close race.) And the polling was all off in the same direction- underestimating Barack Obama's margin of victory. Obama won the state by 12 points: our final poll had him up by only 4, Mason Dixon had him up by only 4, Rasmussen had him up by only 4, and CNN had him up by only 7. Some pollsters did do a better job- Suffolk showed a 10 point lead, Zogby an 11 point one, and AP a 12 point one.

    So the precedent is there for pollsters- especially the ones who have been doing most of the polling for this year's race- to underestimate Democratic performance in the state. [...]

    The second is that those below the radar in 2008 voters may now be included in pollsters' samples- I can only speak for what we do but we're calling folks who voted in the 2004 general, 2006 general, or 2008 general so we should have a lot of the people we missed last time in our samples this time. Still it strikes me as much more likely that the polls are systematically underestimating Harry Reid than the other way around.

    The other reason the tie might go to Reid is that the polling in Nevada is assuming a much larger gap between Democratic and Republican turnout compared to 2008 than we're seeing most places. In our poll tomorrow the sample reports having voted for Barack Obama by only 2 points, compared to his actual 12 point victory in the state. Even with that big dropoff in turnout from Democrats the race is still very close- but if even half of that enthusiasm gap was chopped between now and November Reid would be in a very strong position. And we have seen indication already this cycle that Democratic interest perks up as election day gets closer.

    I certainly think Angle can win by a small amount but if you asked me who has the better chance of winning this by 5 or 6 points I definitely think it's Reid.

    And also as I pointed out yesterday, PPP's poll had a VERY CONSERVATIVE turnout estimate... An Obama +2 electorate that was 51% male and 49% female, and only 41% Democratic and 40% Republican. The actual registration numbers are 42% D and 37% R, and there are more women voters than men voters.

    So who has Razzy's internals? I want to compare and contrast them to PPP's and POS'.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    And Suffolk now has its NV-Sen poll out!
    It's not online yet, but it will be here shortly. Apparently, both Ralston and I were emailed the press release less than an hour ago.

    Top lines:

    Reid 46
    Angle 43

    And I'm digging through the internals right now...

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Btw, what's really interesting about Suffolk...
    Is that they're based in Massachusetts, but for some reason they're developing quite the knack for getting Nevada results pretty darned right. They were one of the only pollsters in 2008 (AP was the other one, I believe) to show Obama winning Nevada by double digits, and they were one of the few pollsters this year to catch Angle's big win in the GOP Senate Primary. I know Suffolk be hit by others for showing a 5% Dem advantage and more favorable numbers for Obama than either PPP or Razzy, but I just felt compelled to note how surprisingly well they've been polling Nevada for these last 2 years.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Nice numbers!
    Re: age groups, I hope the 34-and-under crowd is bigger than just 6% on election day. That's what they're showing.

    [ Parent ]
    This is all noise
    We're seeing why polls have a three point margin of error. Angle by 1, 2, or 4 really all means the same--Rasmussen thinks she's up by a very small amount.

    This race is starting to bore me. We see polls almost daily and very rarely does anyone lead by more than 2 points.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    i dont even really look at the polls
    In NV-Sen anymore.  We get it, it's a toss-up.

    [ Parent ]
    SC-Sen Nathalie Dupree?
    I just got an e-mail about this.

    http://www.nathaliedupreeforus...

    I hadn't really heard of Nathalie Dupree before; I think she's some celebrity chef.  This website claims she's running a write-in campaign against DeMint.  Is this serious?


    Whitman
    keeps breaking out those piggy banks. She dumps another $20 million into her campaign.

    http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    It came from California
    Heaven's Gate

    Ishtar

    Waterworld

    And now, Meg Whitman for U.S. Senate.


    [ Parent ]
    Only difference is that Waterworld...
    ...cost a lot less to flop.

    [ Parent ]
    Wait, eMeg is already conceding the Governor's race...
    And now planning to run for US Senate in 2012? (/snark) ;-)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    And the thing is
    that won't even phase her.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    OH SNAP!

    I've joked about ads that are like: "My opponent hates puppies and eats children." But this is truly the ad in real form. OH SNAP!

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


    Ug
    I find that ad disturbing on so many levels.  I'd never vote for someone who put that up on my TV screen.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Looks like a web ad n/t


    [ Parent ]
    I see the "Paid for Quinn-Simon 2010" disclosure...
    On the bottom, so this may actually be on air in Illinois. Remember that state level races don't have to comply with BCRA federal disclosure standards.

    And you know what? This is the kind of thing that can definitely win or lose a close election. Who wants to see puppies slaughtered like this? Smart move on Quinn's part, even if it's not the kind of ad most of us ideally would like to see on TV.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    IDK
    I think the use of the words "GAS CHAMBERS" in red letters is a little too disturbing to be used in that fashion.  Most people have one thought when you say "Gas Chambers".  That's just my personal opinion.  It wouldn't change my vote against Brady, but I'm pretty partisan.

    [ Parent ]
    if people find the ad offensive and having gone too far
    it could backfire and make people not vote for Quinn himself.  I'm sure there is an example of this happening to someone but with only my four years of following politics religiously I can't think of any.

    [ Parent ]
    Nancy Johnson/Chris Murphy
    Johnson's "Chris Murphy, friend to drug dealers" ad in 2006 was widely criticized within the district and helped Murphy. He ended up winning by 12 points in what was widely expected to be a close race. (So obviously it didn't help him squeak past the finish line, but still.)

    [ Parent ]
    Finally got to watch it now that Im home from work
    And I will say, DISAGREE STRONGLY.  This ad is an absolute killer and is probably going to do really well with voters.  The ad itself I dont think is disturbing at all; it's Bill Brady.

    [ Parent ]
    there was an ad last cycle
    In the Franken-Coleman race, Franken was called everything under the sun and an ad mocking this said, ".... he even hates puppies."

    [ Parent ]
    Holt ahead only by 5 in NJ 12
    51-46.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.s...

    This district adjoins the one I'm in.  I've seen a ton of Sipprelle signs, at least in the southeastern part of the district.  Holt's strength is in Middlesex County, and in Princeton and Trenton.  If he gets a decent turnout in these areas, he should be OK.


    At least he's over 50
    with few remaining undecideds.

    PS. How do you find polls so quickly, Paleo? I'm impressed.


    [ Parent ]
    Google news is your friend ; )


    [ Parent ]
    Not suprising
    When last week's polling showed Pallone with a 12 point edge in the adjoining district it should come as no surprise to see Holt's lead half of that in the more Republican friendly district.  If Sipprelle can run up big numbers in Monmouth County and keep Middlesex close he'll have a shot at this.  The poll has very few undecided (does include leaners) but those who are undecided do seem to favor as almost exclusively independent and Republican voters who favor Sipprelle.  If you aggregate them accordingly you'd probably get something like a 52-48 edge for Holt.  One to keep an eye on.

    [ Parent ]
    To dig deeper...
    Here's Monmouth's site...plus you can check out their other regional numbers that have been reported on recently:

    http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin...


    [ Parent ]
    This is my district...
    I live just outside of New Brunswick in Somerset, and there are a pretty even number of signs from both candidates.  Sipperelle may actually have the slight edge in signage, but I can't really see him winning.

    Male, 23, NJ-12

    [ Parent ]
    you must be close to the border of NJ-6
    Almost all of the area commonly called "Somerset" in Franklin Twp. is NJ-6.  I hope they do less town-splitting in 2011.  Big places like JC, Newark, and Edison, maybe, but there was no reason to cut up Franklin.  

    [ Parent ]
    I am
    In fact, it was a mini-project one day just to figure out what district I lived in at all (we just moved here).

    But yes, Somerset is so small it's ridiculous that it's cut up like it is.

    Male, 23, NJ-12


    [ Parent ]
    MI-07: Tim Walberg still plays to the birthers.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    New Harry Reid web video...
    Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle vs. Sharron Angle

    The big debate is tomorrow, and I guess Team Reid is hoping Mitch Fox (the moderator from Vegas PBS) will mention these contradictions from Angle's own mouth.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    Back in the lead for Sink
    and the good polls continue.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Now THAT's what I'm talking about! ;-) n/t


    [ Parent ]
    Favorables:
    Sink: 44/38
    Scott: 33/52

    I don't see how he'd be able to pull it off with those kinds of numbers, unless some who might not like him are so unhappy with national/state Dems that they hold their nose and vote for him anyway.


    [ Parent ]
    Debate
    I hope Coons doesn't screw up tonight's debate.

    [ Parent ]
    It's like Biden vs. Palin
    Her expectations are so low that she can't help exceed them.  And in the end it didn't matter.

    [ Parent ]
    2355 likely voters?
    They're not messing around. NB: Coons leads in all counties, but just barely out of New Castle, where he's winning 60/28.  

    [ Parent ]
    Isn't that the entire population?


    [ Parent ]
    Obviously nothing about teh House seat.
    At least it would provide some reason to poll Delaware.

    [ Parent ]
    Manchin +5 in GQR poll
    Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has seized a five-point advantage in the battle for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat, opening up a 49 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican John Raese in a poll conducted for the DSCC. It's the second survey in two days to show Manchin rebounding, after Public Policy Polling put him three points up on Raese. The fundamentals of Manchin's political profile are strong: Sixty-three percent of likely voters said they had a favorable impression of him and only 28 percent said the opposite. For Raese, those numbers were closely divided at 40 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable. Sixty-four percent of voters said Manchin's job performance was good or excellent, while only 30 percent said it was fair or poor. The GQR poll tested 612 likely voters from Oct. 7-11 - at the height of the controversy over the so-called "hick" ad."

    http://www.politico.com/mornin...


    Pennsylvanians hate social security privatization.
       Santorum completely killed his chances of reelection when he decided to travel around the state to drum up support for Dubya's plan to privatize social security.  It was an abject failure.  I watched senior citizens yell at the bewildered bastard in central Pennsylvania.  Those ads will hurt Toomey no doubt.
      Question: At what point does spending for Toomey become subject to the law of diminishing returns?  I think it does now.

    24, Male, GA-05


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