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WA-08: DelBene Within 3

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 11, 2010 at 6:55 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/9-10/10, likely voters, no trendlines):

Suzan DelBene (D): 46
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±3%)

Despite this race flying almost completely under the radar until a few weeks ago -- when a SurveyUSA poll found a 7-point gap and then a Suzan DelBene internal found a 4-point race -- the race in the 8th is looking surprisingly competitive all of a sudden. That's probably thanks to a decidedly lackluster performance from Dave Reichert this year (as seen by the unexpected loss of support from his usual best friends at the Seattle Times) as well as DelBene marshaling her resources for a major ad pounding at the end. PPP finds an even closer race now, with DelBene down by only 3, seemingly thanks to a reduction in the amount of ticket-splitting that has traditionally helped Reichert (as DelBene is winning Obama voters 80-15). (And if you're wondering, there's no SurveyUSA-style generational weirdness here; DelBene wins 62-19 among the 18-34 set.)

There's one disconcerting number in the crosstabs, and that's that within the district, Patty Murray and Dino Rossi are tied 49-49. Since this district is basically the bellwether for the state (Obama won the state 57-41, and won the 8th 57-42), that extrapolates out to a more or less tied race statewide. On the one hand, that's bad news, as it would seem to confirm that general sense that Murray has lost some ground from her seeming spike last month. But on the other hand, that's good news, as it confirms that this isn't an overly Dem-friendly sample, and if Murray improves a few points and brings some more DelBene voters along with her, that can move DelBene even closer to 50%.

UPDATE: H/t to Minnesota Mike in comments, who points out (via the truly helpful Washington SoS website) that Rossi won 51-48 in the 8th in the 2008 gubernatorial race (which Chris Gregoire won 53-47), and by 54-44 in the 2004 gubernatorial race (which Gregoire won 48.87-48.87). That may actually be a better benchmark than Obama numbers, come to think of it -- as, very importantly, Rossi is from the 8th, as he used to represent the Issaquah-based 5th LD in the state Senate. So if he's tied in his own neighborhood, he's probably lagging the 50% mark by a bit statewide.
Crisitunity :: WA-08: DelBene Within 3
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WA-08: DelBene Within 3 | 51 comments
Nice
Even if the night is a disaster, there will be a smile on my face if faux-moderate Reichert is sent packing.

Go Delbene! I may consider giving some money.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

The district
is a bit more Rep-friendly than the state as a whole. I think Kerry only won it 51-48 but he won WA 53-46.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Murray/Rossi
I just posted this in the open thread but will do it again here, Rossi won the 8th district 51-49 in 2008 and 54-44 in 2004. If you believe this poll Rossi is under preforming what he needs to win.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Encouraging
As are his upside down favorables here.
[ Parent ]
Also...
It looks like Murray outperformed WA-08 statewide by 4 points in '04, and Cantwell by 3 points in '06.
http://www.swingstateproject.c...
[ Parent ]
That's all very interesting
Thanks. I guess that's pretty suggestive that the WA-08 (a very affluent and educated area, at least in its northern half) was home to a lot of "Obamacans" (I'll bet nobody's used that word in about two years) -- moderate GOPers who went with Obama in 08 but tend to stay red for downballot stuff. There may be some of that coming home to roost this year, as one, maybe two, of the Dem-held state Senate seats within the 8th might flip back this year after going blue in '06.
[ Parent ]
how did they vote for Bush?
I'm comparing these suburbs to the ones in Minneapolis that are very rich and highly educated and they have all had a consistent trend this decade to the Democrats.  But the other suburbs where the average family income drops to the 65k-90k range has seen a lot of population growth and would be the quintessential "Obamacan" suburbs.  These suburbs also even had a bigger margin for Bush in 2004 vs 2000 even while he did a point worse statewide.

So that's one thing to consider and investigate as when doing my suburbs project, I figured I could just group them together based off of population, which suburban ring and simply being above 80K average income.  Being a "new" suburb vs an "old" suburb made a huge difference in the trends.  And WA seems poised to create a new district in these suburbs so that's one thing to look out for.  You could see a much larger loss of Obamacans in some suburbs while a smaller drop-off in others.  (Drop-off in all should obviously be expected.)

[ Parent ]
Not that I think it's likely,
but I would be tremendously amused if this, of all years, was the year Reichert lost.
Considering it looks like the pivotal seat
I'm amazed by the dearth of polling in Washington.
This has been
an absolutely screwy year politically, so I wouldn't surprised to see some startling, unexpected results. And while I think Team Blue will bear the brunt, it's possible we might see a shocking upset or two on the other side, especially against an incumbent.
I concur
I think Team Blue could pickup a handful of seats besides the Delaware-AL, HI-01, and LA-03.  It won't be much, but it could influence the delicate balance of power.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Indeed
I have WA-08, CA-03, FL-25, and IL-10 on my watchlist. Not quite optimistic enough to think Rep. Bachmann can be bounced this year.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
h, I'm quite sure Democrats will pick up
IL-10. The only chance Republicans had of holding it went out the door when they nominated a far-right, teabagging businessman over a respected, moderate, local state Representative. While Democrats hurt themselves a little bit by going with a has been, Seals has lots of money, a large corp of active grassroots supporters, and is a much better fit for the district than Bob Dold. This district's been trending Democratic pretty reliably anyway, and Kirk was probably the only thing really holding it down. Thankfully he hasn't shown the same campaigning chops this year as he did in 2006 and 2008 running against Seals.  
[ Parent ]
To me, it's a tossup
Mostly because the Midwest is looking so brutal for Democrats this year, I'm just not confident about a pickup there. But I think it's definitely a solid possibility, especially if voter enthusiasm in Chicagoland is being underestimated.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
This really seems more like...
An "anti-incumbent year" than an anti-Democrat year. We'll suffer some losses, but this shows we may still pick up a few seats. It's another reason why I don't think our House or Senate Majority will be completely lost in some "massive Red Tide!"

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
It's not a total anti-incumbent year
If it was, you'd be seeing lots of Republicans in R+0 through R+8 districts in trouble, people like Bill Young, Dean Heller, Vern Buchanan, Mike Turner, Fred Upton, those people would be somewhat endangered.  So it's not a total two way street.  

That being said though, the Republican Party always polls terribly in terms of favorability, usually worse than the Democratic Party, so that unlike of the GOP could cost incumbents like Charlie Dent, Dave Reichert, Dan Lungren, Lee Terry, Patrick Tiberi, and Michelle Bachmann.  Those are probably the 6 most vulnerable GOP incumbents out there.  (I don't really consider Charles Djou an incumbent in a traditional sense)  Open seats in DE-1, LA-2, IL-10, HI-1, and FL-25 should provide opportunities for sure, but even in 2008, the democrats lost incumbents in R-leaning seats like Nancy Boyda and Nick Lampson.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Joseph Cao?
nm

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Hah
Kinda forgot about him.  Well, he won't be around in a few months anyhow.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
but, most of the targets in that weak PVI range
Are incumbents who have solidified themselves in their districts.  The Dems picked up just about every swing district in the past two years.  People are pissed and now they'll swing back en mass.  If the past two elections hadn't been big waves for us, we'd couldve seen a much more even share of both our swing seats swinging.

I like to think of this election as the natural swing back but with some serious teeth.

[ Parent ]
just to elaborate so i dont sound like a denialist
All Dems should expect to see their margins drop compared to the cycle.  But when it comes down to a win or a loss, the Dems are heavily disadvantaged because we don't have that built up incumbency to squeak out necessary victories.

It took Bush having an approval rating in the high 20's-low 30's for us to get 30 seats while Obama and the Dems could lose 80 based off of an approval rating that has been in the mid 40's at worst.

An analogy would be the most powerful tsunami in recorded history hitting Alaska and killing few while a tidal wave hitting San Fran is going to be a shit storm regardless of how powerful the wave.

[ Parent ]
Now if only the DCCC would notice this poll...n/t

[ Parent ]
i fully expect this to happen
People are pissed and while we will bear the brunt of that, Republicans in swing districts should not act immune.

Beth Krom in CA-48 I believe it is would make a could upset out of nowhere candidate as would Steve Pougnet in CA-45.  CA is just such a disaster right now that it'd be a place to see some upsets.

[ Parent ]
CA-48
I like Beth Krom and she has the right profile for an OC Democratic candidate, but no Democrat will ever win that district as drawn without running up UC Irvine turnout into the stratosphere... and that's not happening this year.  She'll probably win the western half of the district, but the eastern half is just blood, blood red.

Pougnet has a lot more money and a slightly less hostile district, albeit a better opponent.  I agree he has a chance, but Lungren will go down before Mrs. McGillicuddy does.

BTW, I should take offense when you call my fine state a disaster, but unfortunately, it is.

[ Parent ]
blah, i need to start proofreading when on my phone
Be another extra 30 seconds away from work. ;)
[ Parent ]
I think WA 08 was Reichert's to lose and that is what he is doing.
He blew (blew off?) an interview with a sympathetic newspaper and lost the Seattle Times endorsement. Reichert has cancelled more appearances iin the district than he has attended. His ads have just gone up while DelBene has been on the air for weeks.

This is Rossi's home district and he needs to be over 53% here. If he is under 50%, he chances of winning the state are considerably diminished.

It would be wonderful to see DelBene send Reichert packing. I hope the Elway and Washington polls due out later this week shed more light on this key race.

The Times....
They haven't endorsed yet for the General, and I have a sneaking suspicion that the reason Reichert wasn't as available and didn't meet with them had to do with his health issues this summer.  It puts the paper in a difficult position, if he was recovering at the time (but didn't tell them). If he now comes forward with that information, will it give them an "out" to endorse him for the general if he doesn't blow them off again?  DelBene doesn't want to "go there" and hopefully all indications are that Reichert has recovered, but doesn't it make sense that the stuff he was going through in the spring and summer led to his unavailability?
Yes they have. The previewed their endorsement online last week. n/t

[ Parent ]
Not that I don't believe you, but I can't seem to find it. Link? n/t


Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
I was mistaken. What I read was a repeat of the primary endorsement
The general endorsement will be printed in Sunday's paper and previewed online this Friday.
[ Parent ]
Hard to imagine the Seattle Times endorsing Reichert now
when they rejected him twice during the primary --

endorsing both DelBene -- and Tim Dillon, Reichert's R challenger. http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

On issues ranging from the wars to the economy, three-term Republican incumbent Reichert is unstudied and comes up short. After six years in office, this is unacceptable.

Reichert opposed financial reform, but was unable to explain what he did or did not like about the legislation. The 8th District deserves someone who is faster on their feet.

Reichert voted against a new small-business lending fund, dismissing it as another bailout. But it is not. The fund is smart leveraging of $30 billion of public investment into $300 billion of credit through community and smaller banks that lend mostly to small businesses.


[ Parent ]
I believe there is mail-in voting here as well...
So less chance of an enthusiasm gap.  
Mostly true
While Pierce county is the only one left (in WA) that has regular voting stations, they also offer mail-in voting as well. (I think Pierce is less than 1/3 of the district.)
[ Parent ]
Pierce County does still have a few regular voting stations but
the number of those registered as permanent absentees outnumber those who vote at the polls on election day. Roughly 20% (by population not geography) of the 8th district is in Pierce County.
[ Parent ]
Yay
Maybe things will slow down for the conservatives in the following weeks!
Matches
internals and SUSA. Sadly I think this will be the heartbreaker of the cycle. We lose by a few hundred votes or at least close. Just my hunch. Hopefully I'm wrong. Even if we lose this year there is always 2012 when Obama will be on the ticket and what will this district look like then?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
This year
could be the proving ground for some good candidates who can give it another go, and win, in 2012.
[ Parent ]
If DelBene exceeds Burner's '08 number
(47%) Then she should get another shot in '12.  
[ Parent ]
Let's hope she exceeds it
all the way to 50.01%! :)
[ Parent ]
I saw that if Washington gains a
seat, which looks likely now, the old WA-08 will be push northward, made more techy, upscale, and liberal, (a better match for Delbene all around), and Reichert will get a more blue collar, outer Pierce and King county district.  
[ Parent ]
I've heard this too
I think Washington has a bipartisan commission which tends towards incumbent protection. Reichert is probably safe for a while if he wins this year.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ami Bera
An excellent example.  While I don't expect him to win this cycle, I think he may crush Lungren next time, particularly if redistricting is involved.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
definitely!
he's probably the one I'd be most excited to see give it another go in 2012.
[ Parent ]
CD8 in Washington seems more conservative than Washington State itself. A tie would be a good thing.
In 2004, Murray won by 7 points in CD8, but 12 points statewide. Kerry won by 3 points in CD8, but 7 points statewide. Rossi won by 10 points in CD8, but it was basically a tie statewide.

In 2006, Cantwell won by 11 points in CD8, but 17 points statewide.

In 2008, Obama won by 15 points in CD8, but 17 points statewide. Rossi won by 2 in CD8, but Gregoire won by 6 statewide.

Averaging all of this together, CD8 is about 6 points more conservative than the state. Or, to put it another way, CD8 has NEVER been less than 2 points more conservative than the rest of the state in the last 6 years. This seems to be a good result to Patty Murray.

Might be unorthodox...
But Secy. Locke used to be Washington's governor, and National Drug Control Policy Director Gil Kerlikowske was the rather popular Seattle police chief for a number of years. They might be unusual but effective surrogates in that state.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
DelBene seems to be running a great campaign
Considering she trailed Reichert 47%-27% in the primary, and Democrats collectively got about 40%. I've seen the same ad hitting Reichert many times, perhaps even more often than the Murray/Rossi ads. Maybe she can get a money infusion so that that ad doesn't get stale (though I'm not sure of the extent of her ability to self-fund).

Radical or something, WA-07
I saw this coming
small correction
SUSA collates 18-34 yo  while PPP uses 18-29. That 5 year difference may help explain some of the differences people are seeing in these young adult subgroups.  
29-34 year olds
are neither numerous nor conservative enough to excuse SUSA's ridiculous numbers in most races.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
they could be a lot more conservative than you think
Former broke college student who now pays $100's a month on student loan bills probably aren't very economically liberal people.  Some of the suburbs I mention upthread in Minneapolis went more for Bush in 2004 than 2000.  The state went 1% more Democratic and these same suburbs are the areas where 26-34 year olds are moving to raise families.
[ Parent ]
Ok but to get SUSA's numbers...
these 29-34 year olds would need to be like, hardcore teabaggers or something. it just doesn't stand as an explanation.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Thanks to DKos for even thinking of getting this contest polled,
and alerting us that there's really a viable race here.

I'd never have suspected, especially after our candidate wound up being close to a carbon copy of our losing candidate from '06 & '08.
(Hopefully, Burner can get some vicarious satisfaction if Reichert loses to DelBene).

WA-08: DelBene Within 3 | 51 comments

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