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DCCC Releases Seven New Polls

by: James L.

Mon Oct 11, 2010 at 2:40 PM EDT


The DCCC is out with seven new polls showing five Democratic incumbents in the lead, and two challengers giving GOP incumbents serious races:

AZ-05: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/3-4, likely voters):

Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 46
David Schweikert (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.9%)

HI-01: Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 48
Charles Djou (R-inc): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)

IA-03: Bennett, Petts and Normington for the DCCC (10/3-4, likely voters):

Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 49
Brad Zaun (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-14: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Bill Foster (D-inc): 48
Randy Hultgren (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-07: Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/3-5, likely voters):

Mike McIntyre (D-inc): 52
Ilario Pantano (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-11: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (10/4-6, likely voters):

Heath Shuler (D-inc): 54
Jeff Miller (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.8%)

PA-15: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/27-29, likely voters):

John Callahan (D): 43
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Of course, I'd like to see the internals they're not releasing, too...
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DCCC Releases Seven New Polls | 47 comments
kos has a new ppp poll
showing reichert and delbene basically tied(MOE)as well
Im not getting my hopes up there again
And I sure hope the DCCC doesnt spend a dime either as I feel like Reichert has his 50%+1 set in stone.
[ Parent ]
you are simply wrong
reichert has lost MAJOR support from indy's who think his brain surgery is a serious issue; this will be another close race PLUS delbene seems to avoid some of the negatives that saddled darcy burner BOTH times
[ Parent ]
NC-7 - GOPer was accused of murder in Iraq
Another case of the GOPTP setting the bar really really low for candidates:

http://www.salon.com/news/poli...

Pantano in 2004 shot two unarmed Iraqi prisoners up to 60 times and then placed a sign bearing a Marine slogan next to their bodies. After a hearing on murder charges, military officials agreed with Pantano's version of events, in which the two men made a hostile move toward him.

One thing I'm really starting to notice
within the last few weeks is that republican incumbents in marginal districts, people that were doing well before, are really struggling now.  

Reichert's lead in WA-8 was in the double digits a month ago, now he's barely ahead.  Lungren's district wasn't really on the forefront, but it's clear that Bera is pressing him now too.  Callahan has been closing the gap gradually on Dent despite a so-called democratic implosion in Pennsylvania.  I think there was a poll last week that showed Minan Trivedi closing the gap on Jim Gerlach as well.

Maybe this year is beginning to show some of it's "anti-incumbent" teeth now, as opposed to being just "anti-democratic".  For what it's worth, the Republican Party's favorables are way in the dumper, so that can't be helping people like Reichert, Gerlach, and Dent.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

I hope the DCCC or at least the DNC notices...
...It's important to go on offense, too... If we could pluck off a few of these guys, it would go a long way towards helping save the majority.
[ Parent ]
Those polls all look great. The Dem incumbents
are still ahead even with +5 bias for internal polls.I am particularly thrilled with the IL-14 #s. I expect us to get hammered in PA and OH, so we need to hold as many seats as possible in our blue states like IL, NY and CA. And it is nice to see them doing some offense as well. I could see us picking up 7 or so Rep seats this year.  
How are the NC ballots formatted?
is it "page 1" (Straight ticket), "page 2" (Senate/House/State Senate/State House) and "page 3" or all three columns on the same page?

because if it's the former, I can see people just voting straight ticket and going from there.

Also would be interesting to see if Ilario Pantano polls worse than Ilario Gregory Pantano (his name on the ballot)

I'd be surprised if anyone outside of party diehards actually
voted straight-ticket.
[ Parent ]
You'd
You'd be surprised how lazy some voters are.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
as for NC
they don't have straight ticket for President (a preservation method for the downballot Dems, it'd seem)

but in 2008.. 2,184,396 voters voted straight ticket (59% Dem/40% Rep) and 4,310,789 voters voted for President. So that's almost 50% of voters who picked straight ticket in 2008.

[ Parent ]
The 2008 numbers do not surprise me
We had many new voters that weren't part of the process before 2008.  I believe the younger voters tended to vote a straight Democratic ticket in 2008.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
And Im sure
it's exactly what the Obama campaign told them to do to vote for him.  No point in explaining a whole ballot when you can say it's as easy as filling out one circle!
[ Parent ]
There is straight party here
As someone commented below, its a little different in presidential years.  Then, you vote for President first, followed by straight party which covers just about everything else.  This year, thats what will appear first followed by federal offices, then state and local.

As an aside, we're having our first statewide Instant Runoff Race for a Court of Appeals judge.  The problem?  This seat is for an unexpired term and filing was in August.  Its also non-partisan and there are 13 candidates.  It will be quite a mess to count.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

[ Parent ]
Sample Ballot
from the State Board of Elections:

http://www.ncsbe.gov/downloads...

[ Parent ]
not bad
Good to finally see an internal from IL-14, and it's not a bad one.

First internal from IA-03, also good news.

AZ-05 is an improvement from the last two internal which were Mitchell +3 and +1.  Maybe pulling into a small lead from what was probably a tie.

I'd like to see a better number in HI-01, an internal like that probably confirms the dem-leaning tie that PPP had.  I think we'll pull it out on election day though.

Boswell seems to have improved his position
Zaun is rumored to be behind even in Republican polling, which may be why the NRCC didn't bump him up to "young gun" status when they bumped up Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-02) and Ben Lange (IA-01).

However, AFL-CIO is still sending out negative mail on Zaun, and DCCC just started airing a new negative ad on Zaun, so I wouldn't say Boswell's in safe territory.

It would help him a lot if Culver could move up a bit in the IA-Gov race.

[ Parent ]
Big surprise to me is IL-14
I still will be surprised if Foster wins.
PA-15 is really interesting...
And it confirms what I've been suspecting for some time, which is that Dems aren't really as "DOOMED!" in suburban Philly as some pundits have suggested.

The others didn't really surprise me. No way did I think Mitchell was a goner in AZ-05, Hanabusa still has a tough slog in HI-01, and all the talk of McIntyre in NC-11 being washed away by "The Red Tide" was hogwash.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

I disagree that Hanabusa has a tough slog
She's +4 in a district where there are cultural challenges in polling certain Dem-leaning subgroups. I think she's the clear favorite.
[ Parent ]
Well, I meant that it isn't a given...
Or at least, I'm not treating it as such. But yes, you do have a good point on (yet again!) screwy polling missing a number of voters, voters likely to vote for Hanabusa that the public polls don't count.

If I had to forecast what happens here, I'd say Hanabusa wins by mid-to-high single digits. She definitely needs to campaign like hell, but I don't think Djou can hold this seat for the GOP.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Mike McIntyre
McIntyre is a very good fit for his district.  He's a Democrat that can distance himself from the national party, but also a guy that won't cause too many waves.  I'd be surprised if he loses in November.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Just like Bill Foster, except much more entrenched. n/t


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
some polling firms are going under after 11/2
although to be fair, some of the new ones kind of smell like a "Paid by the CoC/Koch to produce the results they want" front.

And anybody who has called voters can tell you that the sample of people who answer a phone call from an unknown number is not that high, and is probably getting lower every cycle.

[ Parent ]
I've thought for awhile that PA and OH were going
to be the states where we lose the most ground. If we do ok in the PA suburbs, I think we may hold the house.
[ Parent ]
PA-15 isn't really suburban Philly
but I hold out some faint glimmers of hope in the three competitive suburban Philly districts (PA-06, PA-07, PA-08. If PA-13 is competitive we're screwed.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Do you really James, do you really?
There is probably some pretty ugly stuff they aren't sharing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
PPP previews their NV-Sen poll:
They say that Reid is more likely the one being underestimated and that the race is a statistical tie.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Also, their feed says that although Angle leads among indies by 8 (she led by 10 in July), Danny Tarkanian would have led 26 among indies and be doing better than Angle by 8.

Primary fail.  The TPX chose the wrong candidate to boost, not that I'm complaining.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

None of the above
The big dynamic here is how much does "none of the above really get". Will people hold their nose and vote for Reid over Angle if they really don't like either candidate? Looking at it from blue glasses it has to help Reid. Independents and moderate GOPers hate him but have to say that there is no way that they want Angle to represent them either so they can just vote for "none of the above". I really hope that Reid can pull this out so that the GOP will be denied of a major trophy seat.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
It sounds like they're going to say
that Angle is ahead by a couple of points, consistent with Ras.

We'll see.  

[ Parent ]
No, I say there's no movement. Nowhere do they say she's ahead one or two.
I predict the poll shows Reid ahead by one or two.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Since they haven't yet said
what they're going to say, this is all speculation. It separates the pessimists from the optimists.  
[ Parent ]
I'm pessimistic about this poll
But optimistic he can still win for the reasons mentioned.
[ Parent ]
No
PPP always teases its readers like that. It's sometimes hard to infer what he said. Although, beforehand, he wrote a post on his site about how he thinks the Democrats will keep the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Sounds like what I feared
Reid is down. Polling was off in 2004 too but nobody ever mentions that.
[ Parent ]
Off in 2004 in whose favor?
Repubs or Dems?  
[ Parent ]
The poll average suggested
Bush would win by more than he did. Same in CO.
[ Parent ]
I think Reid could easily lose
As weak a candidate as she is, he should be polling at 50 by now. I am still very worried about this race.
[ Parent ]
As I was ...
... going down the poll closing times on Nov. 2, I was fearing 7:30PM because that's when the NC polls close. And I hadn't really factored the NC House races into my yardstick strategy for election night.

These polls from NC-7 and NC-11 make me feel a little better about that. The leads for the Dems are pretty strong, even for  a Dem campaign-sponsored poll.  

Doesn't it usually take longer
for House races to be called? I mean, there aren't exit polls, I'm guessing, so don't the networks just have to wait until a sufficient number of precincts report? That could take some time.
[ Parent ]
That's a good point.
It seems to contradict with my experience watching election night coverage in 2006 though. I realize there wasn't many exit polls of those races (if any), but the media did seem to know which candidates were winning and did call them.

I guess they just based their calls on wire service reports about precincts reporting and then guessed what precincts particular candidates would be strong or weak in. For example, if a Dem candidate had a lead and all the precincts left to report were from liberal areas, they just called the race for the Dem.

[ Parent ]
I remember...
... the 6PM poll closing races were called pretty quick. Or at least it seemed that way.
[ Parent ]
OK, thanks n/t

[ Parent ]
So what internals do you want to see from the DCCC?
I'd like to see:

AZ-01
AZ-08
NV-03
FL-24
IL-11

I'd like to see
ones from Ohio and PA.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Well, they are still advertising heavily for Boccieri...
...DCCC ads that is, so he must be in somewhat decent shape.
[ Parent ]
swap out FL-24 and IL-11
Gimme FL-22 and OH-16. Maybe some CA-11 and CO-7.  WI-8, MI-1/7/9, and SC-5 would all be welcome to me as well.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
DCCC Releases Seven New Polls | 47 comments

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