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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Polls

by: James L.

Mon Oct 11, 2010 at 10:20 AM EDT


The boys down at SSP Shipping & Receiving are, frankly, completely overwhelmed with the influx of incoming polling to report. That's why we gotta dish 'em out with no added frills, bulk-style. Our latest dose:

KY-Sen: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/4-6, likely voters, 8/30-9/1 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 40 (37)
Rand Paul (R): 43 (42)
Undecided: 17 (20)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

NC-Sen: High Point University (9/25-30, adults, no trend lines):

Elaine Marshall (D): 31
Richard Burr (R-inc): 45
Mike Beitler (L): 4
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±5%)

WI-Sen: Fairbank Maslin for the DSCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48
Ron Johnson (R): 49
(MoE: ±4%)

FL-Gov: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 44 (47)
Rick Scott (R): 40 (40)
(MoE: ±4%)

OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Suffolk University (10/4-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42
John Kasich (R): 46
Dennis Spisak (G): 4
Ken Matesz (L): 2
Undecided: 5

Lee Fisher (D): 37
Rob Portman (R): 47
Michael Pryce (I): 4
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-Gov, ME-01: Maine Center for Public Opinion for Pine Tree Politics (Gov | -01) (10/4-7, likely voters, no trend lines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29
Paul LePage (R): 30
Eliot Cutler (I): 11
Shawn Moody (I): 5
Kevin Scott (I): 2
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±3.8%)

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 46
Dean Scontras (R): 38
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5.3%)

MI-Gov: EPIC MRA (10/3-7, likely voters, 9/11-12 in parens):

Virg Bernero (D): 29 (29)
Rick Snyder (R): 49 (53)
(MoE: ±4%)

CA-18: SurveyUSA for KFSN-TV (10/5-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Dennis Cardoza (D-inc): 50
Mike Berryhill (R): 44
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4%)

CA-18: J. Moore Methods for Dennis Cardoza (9/27-29, likely voters):

Dennis Cardoza (D-inc): 53
Mike Berryhill (R): 37
(MoE: ±5%)

ID-01: Moore Information for Raul Labrador (10/5-6, voter screen unspecified, 7/12-13 in parens):

Walt Minnick (D-inc): 37 (37)
Raul Labrador (R): 31 (27)
Dave Olson (I): 6 (4)
Mike Washburn (L): 6 (4)
Undecided/None: 21 (28)
(MoE: ±6%)

IN-07: EPIC-MRA (10/1-3, likely voters):

Andre Carson (D-inc): 50
Marvin Scott (R): 33
Dav Wilson (L): 6
(MoE: ±4.9%)

KS-04: SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/14-15 in parens):

Raj Goyle (D): 40 (40)
Mike Pompeo (R): 53 (50)
Shawn Smith (L): 3
Susan Ducey (RP): 2 (4)
Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

MI-15: Rossman Group/Team TelCom (10/4, voter screen unspecified):

John Dingell (D-inc): 40
Rob Steele (R): 44
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±5.6%)

NY-04: McLaughlin & Associates for Fran Becker (10/6, likely voters, 6/10 in parens):

Carolyn McCarthy (D-inc): 46 (45)
Fran Becker (R): 45 (25)
Undecided: 9 (31)
(MoE: ±5.6%)

NY-19: Iona College for RNN-TV/Westchester County Association (10/6, voter screen unspecified):

John Hall (D-inc): 42
Nan Hayworth (R): 42
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3.5%)

NY-25: McLaughlin & Associates for Ann Marie Buerkle (10/4-5, likely voters, 7/10 in parens):

Dan Maffei (D-inc): 39 (46)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 40 (39)
Undecided: 21 (17)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Take that last one with a grain of salt, though -- note that directly before the head-to-head top line question, McLaughlin asked if voters would like to send an Obama-supporting Democrat to Congress or a Republican who would provide a "check and balance".

PA-03: Mercyhurst College (9/22-10/5, registered voters):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 37
Mike Kelly (R): 44
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3.9%)
James L. :: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Polls
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McLaughlin
Laugh being the operative part. Taegan has some conservative polls - Boxer up 2, Blumenthal up 7, Coons up 13, Angle up 6. The latter probably generous but I fear the worst from PPP unfortunately.

It's a GOP poll...
So I'm applying the salt liberally here. Especially since there's no way in hell Angle is above 50. Not even the public polls show that, and the private polls... Well, don't believe me, believe Jon Ralston.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Regarding those "polls"...
Nate:

A Wordpress blog getting ~500 hits a day on posts like "October Giveaway: 32 Gigabyte Apple iPad!" suddenly commissions 5 polls? Not likely.


[ Parent ]
New rule, lol
completely toss out Republican polling from 2nd tier races, and add 10 points to margin of Republican polling from 1st tier races.  

[ Parent ]
Some of these House polls I'm skeptical of...
Who are Rossman Group and Team TelCom? And what other MI-15 polls are out there? And while I won't dismiss the NY-04 GOP internal, I also want to see what's happening there with other polling and what's on the ground.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


I don't how we can take them seriously
When they put out crap like Carney in DE barely up which is then followed by at least four polls all in double digits. I have no doubt lots of incumbents are going to see their margins shrink but 75% or so of these GOP "polls" are pure BS.

[ Parent ]
As I've been saying...
A whole lot of the polling this cycle is crap. And that's another thing. These days, I like to look at the internals to see if they make sense. And if there are no internals provided, it automatically puts doubt in my mind.

So I can believe these GOP polls IF they provide internals that make sense. But if the internals are screwy, the top lines are probably out of whack. And if no internals are provided, I'm wondering where these "polls" really came from.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
.
NY-4 poll is the single most ridiculous poll I've seen this cycle.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
No kidding
It says there are more republicans then democrats in that district. Utter bullshit

[ Parent ]
The tick
In all of them are the number of "undecided" voters. I suspect most are more commonly known as Democrats.

[ Parent ]
It seems like the GOP is putting out dubious
polls to try to set the narrative that the Dems are doomed. At this point, I am viewing all polls outside of two or three pollsters with a boulder of salt.

[ Parent ]
voter screen unspecified?
Minnick within the MoE, and NY-4 and MI-15 far too competitive. Something's weird here, or dems are really and truly fucked.

22, male, VA-10

Fast and loose Republican polls
Have you seen the MoE?

[ Parent ]
I understand the moderators want to show both Dem and Republican internals
But I'm sorta questioning giving the Dingell and NY-4 polls their own prominence (as opposed to just mentioning them in a diary) given their sketchiness.

The NY-4 poll in particular is laughable.  


[ Parent ]
Where should we put our eggs?
If we had any, I would remove them from Ark, NC, Ind and put them into Ky, Co, WV, and PA.  My hunch is that has been done already but don't have data on IEs.  

I'm unsure about NH though.  Seems almost in striking distance and we have two tough down ticket houses races that could use a boost in turnout.

NY-29


Done long ago...
Except I'm not 100% sure about what the DSCC is doing in Indiana. I know the DCCC is still active there, and for good reason.

But yes, the DSCC and DCCC are focusing more on PA, KY, and CO, and the DSCC is up and running in WV.

And IMHO it makes sense for both to stay in NH. The public polling has been all over the place, but I have a feeling it's far from a lost cause.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Ellsworth is capable of making this
A close race and now that he's been running the Dan Coats lobbyist ads pretty much non stop.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
They
aren't spending on the Senate are they? Surely not. I know they are spending a lot for Hill, if they have or are going to spend for Ellsworth I would be shocked. I think they will (have they already?) spend some in IN-2 just to be safe.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
The Democrats have already sunk millions into Pennsylvania
and it hasn't gotten them anywhere.

I'd put all the chips on Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia, states where the Democrats have a decent chance of winning.  


[ Parent ]
DSCC never put any eggs in NC
Once their hand picked candidate lost the primary, they abandoned Elaine Marshall.

[ Parent ]
Not buying MI-15
The district includes Ann Arbor and is D+13, enough said.

I'm sure McCarthy will see her majority drop in NY-4, but she'll still win. She won in 2002 and 2004 with the GOP targeting her seat, so she will win this time.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


It's a joke.
Dingle might lose some support, but he's still going to win by double digits.  

[ Parent ]
one thing to remember
How badly we got spanked in local races on Long Island in 2009.  Not saying I believe this poll but I'd hope McCarthy has been campaigning actively this year.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, the whole MI-15 thing
The only close election that Dingell has had in quite a while was 1994, when he was held to 59%, but his MI-16 was only D+3 in the 1990s. I could see Dingell being held to a similar margin in light of it being such a terrible year for Democrats in Michigan, but imagining him losing without a scandal is still a bridge too far.

Also, I suspect the quality of the poll is probably pretty week. The polling firm didn't bother to release a polling memo and I can't find it on their website (so we can't prob for questions like "did you guys just totally skip Washtenaw County or something?"), but we do know that the margin of error is a rather portly, +/- 5.6%. This is sort of odd, because it seems like more often than not if you're going to shell out to pay for a poll, you're going to pay to have it done right. Point is, I'm getting pretty skeptical of these fly-by-night pollsters who won't let us have a peek at their methodology. What are they hiding?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Elaine Marshall put her FIRST ad out today...
Three weeks before the election and she's putting out her first ad.  

I guess nobody has to wonder why she's getting destroyed by Richard Burr.  

First ad three weeks before the election.  Is it too lake to bring Cal Cunningham back in?  


He had no money either


[ Parent ]
True, but that's still pathetic on Marshall's part
It's almost like she didn't realize what cycle she was running, thinking that it was 2006 or 2008 and the DSCC was going to be able to bail her out of her disasterous fundraising situation.  

[ Parent ]
.
Perhaps she was banking on a 'late surge' a la Sestak? Wasn't going to work.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
But weren't DFA and PCCC supposed to?
I remember getting emails from them saying Marshall was still within reach and she's a "Bold Progressive" deserving of support.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
He was a DSCC recruit...
Meaning they couldn't have hung him out to dry - they would have had to fund him, at least initially.  He had a lot more growth potential as well.

[ Parent ]
Fundraising
FWIW: Marshall raised more than Cunningham in the runoff election.

[ Parent ]
Why?
Burr has peaked at 43-45% with 1/5 of the electorate STILL undecided, almost all who have a deeply negative opinion of the incumbent. People are just tuning in, so there was no reason to blow precious resources -- we raised $1.3 million this quarter -- in September when no one was paying attention.

FWIW...I consult on Elaine's campaign.


[ Parent ]
But if you're citing the poll above
It's of adults, rather than likely voters, so among the latter I'm guessing Burr might be over 50%.

Anyway, look, you're fighting the good fight, so I hope you're right and wish you the best of luck.  


[ Parent ]
I'm citing another poll


[ Parent ]
which poll?
give us specifics please

[ Parent ]
You raised $1.3 million
That's pretty good.

[ Parent ]
Question about polls the last 3 weeks
I think its been over 2-3 weeks since the DCCC dropped a bunch of polls

Since then, we've gotten more news from Nate Silver that the Democratic comeback didn't amount to much/enough...we got a ton of polls from neutral and GOP sources saying we're going to get destroyed, and generic numbers are showing again a national blowout

What I'm wondering, and asking, is: Is it even realistic to entertain the notion of keeping the House? I remember in 2006 and 2008 all the unrealistic analysis from Republicans, and it is basically word for word what Democrats are saying this year

Whenever I hear some Democrat saying "oh we can keep the House we're only going to lose like 20-30 seats" I'm thinking back to when the GOP was on the air saying they also were going to only lose half of what every political website was projecting


Show me a poll that had Critz winning by points...
in the special election against Burns.  And that was by the same pollsters who are using the same enthusiasm models to predict races now.  IIRC most had Burns winning.

Polling is far from an exact science even when the polling company is on the up and up with no horse in the race.  

I think there is a lot of close races that are far from decided even yet.  Dems could just as easily lose only 20 as they could lose 50.  Hell if it's a crisp sunny day vs a cold miserable rainy day will probably decide the races more than anything candidates could do from this point out.  


[ Parent ]
here is the poll you wanted
"Critz leads Republican Tim Burns 44%-38%  "
- Susquehanna poll.

Poll said he'd win by 6 points and he won by 7 points

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...



[ Parent ]
And I remember then...
Many pundits were calling them an "outlier" because most of the other polls had Burns ahead.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Good news then because Susquehanna has...
Specter within the MOE.
The poll found Toomey leading Sestak 45 percent to 42 percent, with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

Susquehanna is a Pa polling outfit, so their polling should have much more weight to it.


[ Parent ]
*Sestak within the MOE*


[ Parent ]
.
I won't entertain the thought that we've already lost the house.

I'll say this though: both parties will probably have between 210-225 seats. A narrow majority.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
It's hard to know....
...because a lot of polls are junk and the rise of cell phones is making good polls harder and harder.  The "enthusiasm" gap is also in a way a finger on the scale.  Polls are assuming Democrats are not going to show up.  And that may happen.  The main difference between 1992, 1994, and 1996 is the electorate who bothered to show up to the polls.

That said the most telling thing is the sub-demographics particularly the large loss of support for Democrats among registered independents.  That can't be good whether the base rallies or not.

Additionally we are only beginning to see the pre-election blitz.  The last two weeks when everyone goes all out.  And that is what scares me.  With the recent supreme court decision there is a lot of serious money that is going to be thrown at all directions that can tighten and close out a number of races.

And of course the enthusiasm gap and more specifically getting non-whites, particularly African-Americans, to the polls without Obama at the top of the ticket.  This will make a difference in a large number of races.

In short the polling should scare us.  But the die has not been cast.  It all comes down to GOTV.  And no incumbent in a majority white district regardless of the PVI should feel safe without a good effort.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
So, for the first time in history....
What I hear is:

For the first time in history, ALL of the polls will be fundamentally wrong..

For the first time in history, even though all of the political forecasters are saying +50 GOP seat gain, we're only going to lose about half of that

For the first time in history, there is going to be a national generic ballot that is going overwhelming to the GOP but the Democrats will not lose the House

^that kind of talk just sounds crazy


[ Parent ]
See my comments below, but, well, yeah, maybe...
Because this is the first time in history the Republican party has been this unpopular.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe because this isn't the first time...
In history that so many polls have been so screwy. Look at all the polls we see showing "young voters going Republican", "minority voters going Republican", no voters under 35, plurality Independent turnout in places where Indies don't even make 20% of voters, and so much more. Even Charlie Cook, a big proponent of "The Great Red Tide", has admitted that much of the public polling we're seeing this cycle is crap.

What sounds crazy to me are these public polls that take "the enthusiasm gap" to such ridiculous extremes.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I don't doubt the sum of all the polls.
But each individual race is a snapshot.  One that can often be flawed and in the case of many of our endangered seats shows a close race rather than a blowout.

While polls do have value as forecasts they also have value as diagnostic tools.  Which is why candidates take polls.  So they can get a better idea how to respond rather than simply a method to divine the future.

I've been in the doom and gloom crowd for awhile.  And I've been predicting large losses since before the summer of last year.  So I am perfectly willing to accept (even if I'm not thrilled with) a landslide of Republican victories.

But poll after poll shows the main problem Democrats face is turning out their voters.  And the most dire polls are predicting historically low Democratic turnout.

Midterms in general have always had lower turnout.  And have always been about GOTV.  While it may not erase a 10 point gap it can certainly do 5.

November 4th will be a bad night.  The question is how bad.  There are about a dozen you can write off right now. Then you've got dozens more that are going to be hard fought and current polling shows are winnable (as well as of course losable).

Do I believe we can lose 50?  Absolutely. Could even be 90.  The question is WILL we?

Orgnization in the end will win or lose this election.  Unfortunately that is what scares me.  Remember Move-On and the way they said and did things embarassing but got foots on the ground in 2006 and 2008?  That's what is happening on the right.

The question is how Democrats respond district by district.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
November 4th will be ok
after all it'll be the night before TGIF. November 2nd on the other hand (or rather the day of November 3rd for me), now that'll suck!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
it'll be quite the hump day
Imagine if we did elections on saturdays and had our whole weekends ruined.

[ Parent ]
It is very hard to know...
There was a commentator on the weekend diary who thinks Dems could lose 80 seats in the House.

Here's what I wanted to say: Maybe, but I can also see the Dems losing 25 or less seats.

Now before some of you accuse me of drinking the Kos cool-aid, I'm not predicting this is absolutely going to happen. But this is a very weird year, even by political standards. You have strong dislike of both parties, and arguably stronger dislike of the Republican party. Obama is below 50 percent approval, but not that much below, and arguably in a stronger position than Bill Clinton was in 1994.

Sometimes I can very easily see Democratic voters and independent leading Democrats turning out at the end, just like the did in the Critz-Burns race. What's the cliche: an unenthusiaistic voter is still a vote.

I know many of you will jump on to say that's just not realistic to think Dems will lose less than 25 seats, and maybe it's not. Certainly none of the professional commentators (Sabato, Cook and Rothenberg) think it is, and with the exceptions of maybe Duffman and Tommy Paine (our two most optimistic Dem commentators), most of the better commentators on this site don't agree either.

But to me, I can see it. At least more than I can see Dems losing 80 seats.  


[ Parent ]
I think it's more likely
that Democrats will lose 60 House seats than that they will lose only 25 seats.

Carville is saying momentum can shift in the last few weeks, but I don't see what external event will shift things in our favor before November 2.


[ Parent ]
the only thing that can turn it around now
Is catching Bin Laden...

[ Parent ]
Good point, Draxinum
Are we all just in denial?

Using your two examples (Republicans expressing optimism in 06 08), I would say, no, we are not in denial.

You can't compare now to 08 because it was a Presidential election year, and Presidential years have an entirely new set of rules than do midterms.

You can't compare now to 06 because the minority party in 06 only needed a 15 seat net gain to win control of the House. This election, the minority party needs a net gain of about 40 seats in order to win control of the House.

The Repubs in 06 (like Karl Rove the last few weeks of the election) were REALLY in denial, claiming that a pick up of just 15 seats was impossible for the Dems to achieve.

At least a Dem today has more clout when they say it's impossible for Repubs to pick up 40 seats.


[ Parent ]
the difference for me
Is that in 2006 we only needed 15 seats.  The GOP trying to tamp down on talk of losing the House meant they thought they would only lose 10 seats, which is almost denying a wave even exists.  Dems doing the same pep talk and delusionary tactics still means losing 30 seats, and that is one giant ass wave of discontent in itself.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the losses were inbetween 20-30.  I'm not holding my breath and I think 35-45 is the most likely, but 20-30 is still quite the beat down.  60-70 is probably more likely than that though. :(


[ Parent ]
Exactly
The indicators are just as bad or worse, but they need to neutralize a larger Democratic advantage, leaving but a lean to the Republicans.

Radical or something, WA-07

[ Parent ]
Angus-Reid California polls
Brown by 12, Boxer by 16.

I know this pollster does a lot of Canadian polls.  Not sure about the U.S.  But margins are hard to believe.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...


And it's registered voters and internet
So probably safe to ignore.

[ Parent ]
Shea-Porter ad hitting Guinta


that ad is devastating
everywhere this guy goes we should have a tracker holding moneybags with HUGE ???question marks on them  

[ Parent ]
Wow. Fantastic
Any word of $$$ size?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Not sure, sorry... n/t


[ Parent ]
The Maine poll
is confirmation that the governor's race is a dead heat, much better than the leads we were seeing earlier for LePage. Seems his lunacy may be damaging him.

is the dem
running strong on the ground field ops; in a race like that, good field ops can give you 4-6% on e-day(just enough to pull it out)

[ Parent ]
LePage winning would be Devastating
The last thing we need right now is a high profile conservative in Maine. I want Teabaggers to pay dearly when they primary Snowe and/or Collins. We don't need someone who could win in a general anyway

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Then again
Look at it this way; were LePage to win, that would guarantee a primary for Snowe and Collins as they could no longer claim that someone on the hard right couldn't win in Maine.  Said candidate would probably be easier to beat in the general than either Snowe or Collins, yes?  So if LePage wins, that's the silver lining in your dark cloud.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised if Obama's approval is upside-down in NY-04
Still, that model seems a little GOP-heavy. Carolyn McCarthy's gun control focus has always caused her friction with the district's Republicans, but she always carries Independents handily. Could be around a ten-point race, but she should be OK.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

(Plus, her district will vote 2-to-1 for Cuomo.)


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
speaking of 'CRAZY CARL'
with 3 more weeks of his 'campaigning', i think he will boost DEMOCRATIC turnout enough to help us in some of the marginal/winnable congressional seats(if we had more 'crazy carl's' out there nationwide, there would NO 'enthusiasm gap' in my view;the paul/sharron angle/christine o'donnell crew just might save the DEMOCRATIC party this cycle from utter ruin)

[ Parent ]
He'll probably help anyone vulnerable downsttae
I still fear Paladino hurts any vulnerable upstate Dems, though, especially anyone in Western New York, where Paladino will still probably win by double-digits. Who's REALLY suffering from the Paladino downfall, though, is Joe DioGuardi, whose base is in the NYC suburbs, where Cuomo is beloved. For DioGuardi to win, he'd need a ton of Cuomo supporters to cross-over (and he will win enough to out-perform Paladino by 5 points, which still won't get him to striking distance).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Or he's so fringe his support plummets...
And Dems feel safe to stay hope if it's raining or something.  

With Gillibrand, Cuomo and Schumer all very safe, I wish they'd spend more of their mega millions to get out the Dem vote in at risk House districts.  


[ Parent ]
I think there will be a "fear factor"
here that motivates NY Dems to get to the polls. As in: Crazy Carl is looking like a longshot, but I'm going to vote anyway because it's too much of a risk. And many will find satisfaction in voting against him.

[ Parent ]
Times are good
when Raul Labrador is forced to release an internal showing him up 6...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

NY-19
I like Rep. John Hall. I hope he makes it.

In a way, the 2010 midterm saddens me because members of Congress that actually voted their conscience and values on various issues (Rep. Tom Perrilio and Sen. Russ Feingold) are probably going to lose while members that just voted out of fear and their desire to get re-elected (Rep. Gerry Connelly and Rep. Larry Kissell) still have good shots.

At least the good ones have the JFK Profile in Courage Award next year. I expect some of these Dems that lose this year will be given that award.


ID-1 poll above
I always thought the "Moore Information" poll sounded like a scam.

It's kind of like,"Here's the latest results from Trustworthy Polling, Inc."  


Two more newspaper endorsements for Murray
Tacoma News Tribune:

Murray has made a political career out of defying expectations. She's grown into a formidable lawmaker who has proven she can both help lead the Democratic Party and work across the aisle when needed. To turn her out now, when she is at the height of her ability to fight for important state, regional and local projects, would be foolish.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/...

Oregonian:


Over three terms in the Capitol, Patty Murray has both built influence and displayed strong connections to the concerns of Washington state, from middle-class economic pressures to veterans issues to Hanford safety. Washington voters should re-elect Murray, and keep both her influence and her values in the U.S. Senate.

http://www.oregonlive.com/opin...


OR-Gov - Ras shows first Kitzhaber lead since February.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Dems will be getting quite a few
Consolation prizes late at night this year. Bennett, Hickenlooper, Reid, Brown, Boxer, Abercrombie, Hanabusa and Kltzhaber will all win. If Denish and Reid the Younger can fin a way to catch up we're looking at a pretty nice night out west.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
You're overconfindent on Bennett
I still think Buck is the slight favorite. I don't know which way Oregon will go, but hopefully Kitzhaber will build momentum.

Agree on everything else though.  


[ Parent ]
I think this is VERY optimistic for the Dems
I expect Bennett to lose, that there's >50% chance that Reid will lose, Whitman still has a shot (albeit a slim one), and both Hawaii races are going to be close. The best the DCCC can do is show Hanabusa up 4.

Dems did better in the West than most regions this cycle (largely due to Republican fuckups), but I wouldn't start counting your wins yet.


[ Parent ]
OH THANK GOD!!!!!!!!
Campaigning matters. Of the "useless" states (those with little input on redistricting) that dems were down in, this was the one I wanted the most, followed by Maine.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Gotta say your man in Texas is solid
What's the scene on the ground? Sounds like Gov. Perry has run into some nasty accusations of ethics violations. Is that moving the needle at all, from what you're seeing?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Not surprising
And great news, especially since Rasmussen has been VERY bullish on Republicans in the Pacific Northwest this cycle relative to other pollsters.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
NH-Sen
Ras showing Ayotte holding her lead:
Ayotte 51 (51)
Hodes 44 (44)

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22


Looks spot-on to me
Ayotte isn't making significant inroads with Dems, and thus, she probably won't stage a double-digit win. Unfortunately for Hodes, there's zero chance he's winning Indies, in fact, he might well be down double-digits among those. Think...

Independent - 42%
GOP - 30%
Democrat - 28%

Ayotte - 56/94/9 = 55%
Hodes - 44/6/91 = 45%

Alright, so I do have Ayotte up 10. I think it's a Likely R race, not because she's up by a huge margin, but because it's so hard to fathom a scenario where Hodes wins.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Lots of new DCCC polls today.
http://dccc.org/blog/entry/mor...

NC-07 - McIntyre 52, Pantano 41
HI-01 - Hanabusa 48, Djou 44
NC-11 - Shuler 54, Miller 41
IA-03 - Boswell 49, Zaun 41
AZ-05 - Mitchell 46, Schweikert 39
PA-15 - Dent 45, Callahan 43
IL-14 - Foster 48, Hultgren 38

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Hmm...
Looks like IA-3 is still a tough race. If you subtract 5 points from Boswell's total, and add five to Zaun, Zaun's up. Mitchell is in a tough race, the PA-15 numbers are a bit to nice, and nice to see something out of IL-14.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I don't buy the take 5, add 5 thing
The numbers for HI-01 are damn close to the PPP poll numbers.

 


[ Parent ]
HI-01
Not exactly great numbers for Hanabusa, there.  I guess that's supposed to push back against the PPP poll of the race, but all that does to me is confirm it which means that both HI-01 and HI-Gov are pure toss-ups.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Not sure about "pure toss-ups"
But they're definitely closer than some people - myself included - were expecting.

If President Obama is as smart as I think he is, he'll recognize the value of a campaign stop in Honolulu. There's just no way Rep. Djou or Lt. Gov. Aiona would win if he made a personal appearance on behalf of the Democrats in Hawaii. He's still very popular in the 50th state.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
If those are even close to accurate,
We probably hold the House. How does the GOP win if Mitchell is up by high single digits?

I'm hoping the influx of DCCC polls lately aren't inflated.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


[ Parent ]
Ugh...
Not one seat shows whether or not we hold the House.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
NM-Gov
RealClearPolitics also have the latest numbers for Ras poll of NM-Gov, but it's still behind the paywall at Ras.

Martinez 52 (51)
Denish 43(41)

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22


Nice Kentucky Poll
Nice to see Rand Paul a mere three points ahead of Conway and under 50.  Maybe there will be a Dem pick up in Kentucky!!!

Rand paul was at some machine gun rally
over the weekend where he's still campaigning against Obama, and even trotted out the "clinging to guns and religion" remark from the Dem Primary in 2008 to make an attack point.  

Paul and conway have another debate tonight as well I believe.  


[ Parent ]
The attorney general should learn from the Big Dog
He needs to come out swinging against Paul's antics while making a play for the political middle, something I think he wanted to do last time but ended up jammed by the debate format (sitting side-by-side with Paul at a desk on FOX News for just half an hour).

There's no question now that Atty. Gen. Conway has the momentum, and Rand Paul is giving a lot of voters some heartburn. He can absolutely exploit that with a solid performance tonight after the adrenaline of his appearance with President Clinton in Lexington this morning.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Reichert by three, Murray by 0 in WA-08
http://www.dailykos.com/pollin...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Murray won the 8th by 8 points in 2004.
Gregorie won the 8th with 52% in 2008, and Cantwell won the 8th with 55% in 2006.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Yea
That all seems to point to a dead heat in the Senate race.  Be interesting to see any new polls on that one.  That suggests to me that any Murray 'bounce' is over.  Don't think it means that Rossi has 'big mo', though - more likely this is a game of inches.  Look for megabuck$ and some nasty ads in WA.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Not so fast...
In Murray's last race, her margin statewide was 4 points higher than in WA-08. Cantwell also did better statewide, but I'm not sure (yet) by how much.

[ Parent ]
Thanks...
I was just looking for those numbers, couldn't find them.

The statewide results for the past two senatorial campaigns were:

Cantwell '06 - 56.9 / 39.9 = margin +17
Murray '04 - 55.0 / 42.7 = margin +12.3

So Murray did 4 points better statewide than in the district.

Do you have the Cantwell margin for the district? Seems she outperformed her vote percentage by a couple points, but I'm not sure what the margin was.


[ Parent ]
Great find
This one is tight but I think the incumbent has the edge right now. If she can get more Democrats to the polls, she'll lift her margin and maybe even carry DelBene, as I suggested below. Possibly even Heck in Rep. Baird's district, although Herrera is in the catbird's position there for sure.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
In 2004,
Murray won the 3rd by 3 points. In 2006, Cantwell won the 3rd by 10 points.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
55-41
with a bunch of % going to third party candidates

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
So Cantwell
outperformed her margin in the 8th by 3 points statewide.

Not sure what would be a better comparison here - the margin or the incumbents' actual vote percentage. But according to either metric, it looks like performance in the district vs. statewide is lower by low to mid single digits.


[ Parent ]
This is a ridiculously overpolled cycle

and evidently no one knows how to model the turnout.

I suspect the flood of GOP friendly polling has to do with all the money the front groups have to spend.  Since it's all being done on some kind of business model, the individual anonymous outfits have to provide some kind of assessments that allows their performance to be evaluated quantitatively.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's some office park building somewhere where some corporate-funded outfit is aggregating all the polls (including many we don't see, because they aren't published or leaked) and spending numbers and all that from the shadow organizations and crunching them.

I've decided I can't take the bulk of them seriously anymore.  My impression is that the game is pretty much set and both sides will indeed see their core voters pretty much all go to the polls.  The generic polling seems to me to be converging on a 52±1% R/48±1% D two party popular vote split, which pretty much fits the R+30ish model.


PPP/dKos poll of WA-08 - It's a race!!!
Reichert 49 / DelBene 46

http://www.dailykos.com/pollin...


A little concerning is Murray's tie in the district.
Probably means she is only up 1-2 statewide.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Hard to say...
That's always been a really weird, idiosyncratic district. But I would guess that race is very close right now.

If Sen. Murray can turn out her base in metro Seattle and the Washington side of the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area, she should win while maybe even carrying DelBene to victory.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
See discussion above...
Murray outperformed the district margin by 4 points statewide.

[ Parent ]
NY-Gov: Lazio rips Paladino over gay comments
Most of these polls look pretty crap
McLaughlin & Associates is a known Republican push pollster, and obviously some of these internals are questionable.

But it's really good to see nonpartisan pollsters putting Atty. Gen. Jack Conway right behind Rand Paul in Kentucky (that rally with President Clinton may help turn out the Democratic vote in northern Kentucky, too, which is key for both Conway and Reps. Yarmuth and Chandler), Alex Sink still leading Rick Scott, Libby Mitchell confirmed to be in a statistical tie with Paul LePage, and Gov. Strickland nipping at John Kasich's heels just weeks after it looked like he was going to be the latest candidate stuck on the wrong end of a bona fide Ohio blowout.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


PPP teases NV-Sen
Jensen blogs about Dems' better odds in the Senate than the House, and says this about NV:

On our Nevada poll this weekend we asked just for the heck of it how folks would have voted if the Republican nominee had been Danny Tarkanian. He did 8 point better than Sharron Angle, most notably winning independent voters by 26 points when her advantage with them is only 8. Independents in Nevada want to vote against Harry Reid, but a lot of them consider him to be a lesser evil than Angle.

Not sure what this implies about the survey results, but doesn't Angle need to be doing a lot better than +8 among indies to win this thing?

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


Yes, Angle DOES...
In July, PPP had Angle up 10% among Indies but down 2% overall. Reid had consolidated the Dem base more strongly than Angle with the GOP. And from the whispers I'm hearing, PPP will NOT be showing Angle making up any ground among Dems or GOPers.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Oh come on . . .
Has Tarkanian been subject to four months and $15 million of negative ads from Reid and friends?  No.  

Would his poll numbers has suffered if he had?  Yes.

So this kind of alternative history poll is kind of BS.  


[ Parent ]
I agree...
What I was keying in on was Angle's margin among indies. (The Tarkanian business is just political masturbation.)

It looks like the race is still tight as a tick, with maybe a (slight) advantage to Reid, based on this poll.


[ Parent ]
politics of the future...
Maybe that could be a new strategy.  Nominate the kook, have the kook get kooky, have the incumbent spend all their time attacking the kook, then switch the kook out $15 million later.  It worked out with NJ-Sen in 2002 (replace kook challenger with scandal-ridden incumbent).

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen back to 8 point Republican lead in the generic

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