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Mark Penn: Cold November Pain Ahead for Frosh Dems

by: James L.

Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 1:37 PM EDT


Noted idiot and asshole Mark Penn is out with a dozen polls testing embattled frosh Dems from around the country. Let's crack this sucker open.

Penn Schoen Berland for The Hill and "America's Natural Gas Alliance" (dates unknown, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):

AZ-01:

Ann Kirkpatrick (D-inc): 39
Paul Goasar (R): 46

CO-04:

Betsy Markey (D-inc): 41
Cory Gardner (R): 44

IL-11:

Debbie Halvorson (D-inc): 31
Adam Kinzinger (R): 49

MD-01:

Frank Kratovil (D-inc): 40
Andy Harris (R): 43

MI-07:

Mark Schauer (D-inc): 41
Tim Walberg (R): 41

NV-03:

Dina Titus (D-inc): 44
Joe Heck (R): 47

NM-02:

Harry Teague (D-inc): 42
Steve Pearce (R): 46

OH-15:

Mary Jo Kilroy (D-inc): 38
Steve Stivers (R): 47

OH-16:

John Boccieri (D-inc): 39
Jim Renacci (R): 42

PA-03:

Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 36
Mike Kelly (R): 49

VA-02:

Glenn Nye (D-inc): 36
Scott Rigell (R): 42

VA-05:

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Rob Hurt (R): 45

Nothing lasts forever - even cold November rain.
James L. :: Mark Penn: Cold November Pain Ahead for Frosh Dems
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Mark Penn: Cold November Pain Ahead for Frosh Dems | 84 comments
10
Good god these are brutal.  I think a 50+ Seat loss is very likely.

29/D/Male/NY-01
these polls are brutal BUT
they do not rise to the "we're going to lose 50+ seats!!" level.

All 12 of these seats are at the moment considered "toss-up" or worse for Democrats; all 12.

Many are in the top 15 of endangered Dem seats (IL-11, CO-4, VA-5); almost all are in the top 30.

The fact that Democrats are stuck in the low 40s in each makes it difficult to envision them keeping the House. BUT the fact that they only trail by tiny amounts in places like CO-4 and VA-5 that the GOP has been claiming to have locked up for months does suggest that: (1) saving a few is possible and (2) all is not lost in seats that are more marginally vulnerable.

If Dems are losing VA-2 and VA-5 by 3% and 1%, are they going to lose VA-11? If Markey is down by 1% in CO-4, can CO-7 (or CO-3 for that matter) really be so vulnerable?

Anyway, not trying to rationalize these polls away; just that we'll talk about a 50-60 seat wave when Penn finds Perlmutter, Skelton, Giffords, Himes all trailing...

[ Parent ]
Absolutely agree
50+ is possible but very unlikely.
[ Parent ]
They are not "brutal"
We've picked over these polls in two other threads.  I, for one, have Democrats losing all but one of these seats, but with an overall loss in the low 40s.  Actually several of these are much closer than I thought they would be.
[ Parent ]
Urgh
Doug Schoen is pals with Scott Rasmussen. Tells you all you need to know.
[ Parent ]
This was in reply to your
Natural gas comment below.
[ Parent ]
As a point of reference
I have 36 seats falling overall, and 10 of these 12.  

If the republicans don't win most of these they have very little chance of taking back the House.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Good "G"od (nm)

[ Parent ]
oh let's not get into that debate

[ Parent ]
Respect is respect. (nm)

[ Parent ]
:)

[ Parent ]
America's Natural Gas Alliance?
Nuff said.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
Mark Penn Natural Gas Alliance
In other words: pure flatulence.
[ Parent ]
zing!


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
heh
I tend to agree with your assessment of Penn, but these numbers look reasonable. I'm actually a little surprised that he shows Perriello and Markey that close.  

41, Ind, CA-05
Those are the two races I also raised an eyebrow at
The others arent shocking at all.  Well, save for IL-11.  I expect the numbers, but why is that seat such a goner?  Halvorson seemed quite promising.
[ Parent ]
well nevermind
just need to scroll down an inch
[ Parent ]
I asked this in the digest, but....
What's up with Debbie Halvorson in IL-11. She won so convincingly over a decent opponent last time, and the district isn't particularly red. Is there something she did, something special about Kinzinger, or is this just a particularly angry district? I expected this to be a tough fight, but I thought it would be a tossup right until election day.

Also, given some of the other numbers on here, the MD-01 and VA-05 results are fairly frustrating for Republicans. I still can't believe the GOP was so eager to run Harris again.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Angry District
The Brady-Quinn race might be driving this to some extent -- note that even if Quinn (hopefully) recovers statewide, it'll be be consolidating his Chicago base and keeping the suburbs tight -- Downstate is going to be ugly.

27, Democratic, IL-01
[ Parent ]
Brady Quinn
What a bust. I thought for sure he would be a special player coming out of Notre Dame...
[ Parent ]
lol


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
Not Downstate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...

She reps the 11th District, which includes part of the Chicagoland burbs. I take this as a sign, however, that Dem reps elsewhere on the edges of the Chicago burbs such as Foster might also be in trouble - after all, these are polls of true Frosh, whereas he was "re-elected" in 2008 after a special election.

[ Parent ]
It's downstate enough...
Let's just say I expect Brady to carry the 11th heavily, even if he narrowly loses the election to Quinn -- and yes, I'm worried about Foster, and even Hare, for the same reason.

27, Democratic, IL-01
[ Parent ]
It's a mix
I don't consider Joliet to be downstate, but the rest of the district definitely is.  Bill Brady lives in Bloomington, which is mostly in the 11th, and McLean County will deliver a large Republican margin that I'm not sure Will County (Joliet) can offset.

As for Hare, I think this is an example of the reverse of what we saw in PA and FL in the last 2 cycles -- a gerrymandered district that loses its natural partisan advantage as more time passes since the last census.

[ Parent ]
Nothing here that we didn't already know what in trouble
The good news is that, Perriello, Markey and Schauer are still in this.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Mark Penn runs on natural gas
And his buddy Doug Schoen runs on Penn's gas.
I'm actually somewhat encouraged
Question for SSPers - if Tom Perriello pulls out this victory, does the GOP have ANY chance of winning the House? Because, honestly, I believe that's the must-win district for the Republicans.  

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
It will be an "early indicator" seat on election night
With the 7p close, if Perriello keeps it within 5, I'd feel my first bit confidence that we'd hold the House.
[ Parent ]
I'd be ecstatic, but not read too much into it nationally...
Others have pointed out Gerlach and Shays holding on in '06 while "safer" Republicans drowned in the wave. Likewise, a year ago I'd say that Walt Minnick and Bobby Bright were "must defeats" in any Republican resurgence, yet both are favored ATM.

27, Democratic, IL-01
[ Parent ]
It is one indicator
OTOH, if SUSA turns out to be right about VA-05, then I'll be more inclined to break out the hard liquor.....
[ Parent ]
yes
There should and probably will be Democrats that are near the top of the endangered lists that hold on, while others considered safer fall.  If you asked this question 4 years ago as follows: "If Jim Gerlach wins, do the Democrats have ANY chance of winning the House?", people would have said "Nope" because it was assumed he'd be one of the first to go.  He held on even as Dems beat Bradley, Bass, and Hayworth, who were MUCH further down on the list.  
[ Parent ]
I would do it from the other end
If Yarmuth and Donnelly barely win it will be a bad night.
[ Parent ]
Well, true
If early in Election Night, we get the sense that Yarmuth is in any sort of trouble, it's going to be a REALLY long night.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
And we will get that indicator VERY early indeed. Pre-7pm ET.

[ Parent ]
Yep
IN and KY go first - I expect an early call for Coats but how quick we get results on some of the IN house races will tell a lot.  Not sure if an early call for Paul will mean very much - I think a lot of the dynamics in that race are specific to KY.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
It's one they have to win
In the event that they don't swing it, it's likely they won't win the House. This is the sort of seat they need and if it doesn't fall, a lot of others like it might not either.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Not true. Perriello has some unique strengths......
He's a guy of high character that people like personally, he voted his conscience and draws some respect for that, and most importantly he has uncommonly strong field campaign skills that allow him to tweak the turnout model in his district more than most House members can do.  Helping Perriello is the fact that there is nothing else on the ballot in Virginia this year except the oddball local election, and nothing else in his district specifically, means that turnout will be particularly important to drive through field organization, and NOT hurt by Democrats up-ballot causing a downdrift.  Further, there are a lot of registered black voters in this district, as well as university-based voters in Charlottesville, who can possibly be ginned up.

None of this is to say Perriello is likely to win or even has a 50-50 shot.  But he has a BETTER shot than many of the other most endangered Democratic incumbents because of the above factors.  He's still likely to lose, but he can win and we still lose the House.  So if he does win, do NOT necessarily take it as a bellwether.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Bellwether
Somebody like Himes is a far better example IMO.
[ Parent ]
You're probably right
about Yarmouth and Donnelly's margins (as early election night bellweathers)
[ Parent ]
They would still have a chance
But it would be less than 50/50 in my view.  Of course, it could be a total fluke.  But it's not like Hurt is a compromised candidate.  This is a district Republicans should win if they're going to take back the house.
[ Parent ]
My Thoughts
I wouldn't call VA-05 a "bell weather race" so to speak but given that Perriello won by less than 800 votes in 2008, is in a R+5 district, has voted for most Democratic initiatives and that he has a very capable opponent should the GOP not win that seat their path to 39 would be dealt a blow. Given that they need 39 net seats to take over this is clearly a district that they should be heavily favored to win. While it is a race by race and candidate by candidate election, given that there are several races that are separated by only a few points and some in more favorable districts then VA-05 for Democrats I would have to say that I would like our chances of keeping the House with a reasonable margin (say 5 seats) if Perriello wins as the GOPs path to 39 shrinks with each toss-up that we keep.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Not to forget
They may well need at least 43 in reality depending on John Carney, Cedric Richond, Dan Seals and Colleen Hanabusa.
[ Parent ]
They will need at least 41
Dems will pick up Carney and Richmond for sure. Less certain about Illinois and Hawaii.  
[ Parent ]
Im pretty confident in both
And hopefully FL-25 as well.  I want to be optimistic considering the candidate situation the GOP has.
[ Parent ]
Im pretty confident in both
And hopefully FL-25 as well.  I want to be optimistic considering the candidate situation the GOP has.
[ Parent ]
All the tea leaves in Illinois are pointing to a Seals win, especially the nonpartisan analyses......
All the nonpartisan write-ups I read on IL-10 say that Seals is winning, that Seals has all the momentum, and Dold still hasn't made any kind of move.  It sounds like the Republicans just picked the wrong nominee here, which I was celebrating on primary night when Beth Coulson lost.

I'm VERY confident Seals will win.

Hanabusa is in more of a true tossup, but I actually feel a lot better since the DailyKos/PPP poll since it showed her up a point and running even with Abercrombie, and I expect that poll understated Democratic strength on election day.

Really I've got those 4 pickups moved from pencil to ink, and it's on top of those that I'm looking for more.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Kirkpatrick will likely win.
The Navajo Nation elections are this year and one of them is running for statewide office too.  That will definitely help her.  Also, she's a good campaigner.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Polling and other tea leaves say Kirkpatrick is toast......
I've written off Kirkpatrick, and I get the impression she's in even worse shape than Harry Mitchell.  The immigration issue is killing us in AZ, it's hurting us more with whites than it's helping us with Hispanics.  Maybe election day will show Hispanic opposition and turnout were badly understated, but I'm not counting on it.

And regarding the Navajo election, that's not persuasive to me without someone explaining what percentage of the electorate there they normally comprise, and what percentage they're likely to comprise this time with presumably elevated turnout.  A small uptick from a small group simply doesn't matter unless Kirkpatrick is in a tossup already, and I get the impression it's no tossup, she's clearly down.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
These polls rarely pick up Native American likely voters.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
AZ01 Internals
I noticed in the internals at The Hill website that only 4% of the likely voters in the AZ-01 poll were Native American.  22.6% of the population of AZ-01 is Native American.  I have no idea if Native Americans will be 23% of actual voters, it will certainly be more than 4%, especially considering the Navajo Nation elections, as you point out.
[ Parent ]
No surprises for me
I have all of these flipping. Actually, the numbers for VA-05 and MI-07 are the best I've seen yet.
MI-07
Setting aside the Mark Penn-ness of it all... I'm feeling good about the MI-07 number.

Is tied at 41 good for an incumbent? No. But I'm still encouraged by a poll showing it neck-and-neck after a few from the summer showing a Walberg blowout.

I've got a lot of faith in Mark Schauer as a campaigner and in Tim Walberg as an idiot who'll open his mouth (again).

Hard to say...
Keep in mind with this race that while Schauer is the incumbent Wahlberg is a known quantity as well having represented the district for one term. Apparently he is a birther and was caught on tape so I can't imagine that will help his campaign with moderate voters who have yet to make up their mind and if this poll is right there is nearly 20% of them. I wouldn't pop any champagne if I were Schauer but this is clearly a toss-up that either side can win.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Interested
I'll be quite interested in next weeks set, which promises to be open seats (followed in the two weeks by two-term Dems then vulnerable long-timers.)  I wonder if they are going to include any of the GOP open seats like FL-25, DE-AL and IL-10 or only Dem ones?  I would hope that they do at least IL-10 if nothing else.  I suspect that the open seats numbers might be even worse for the Dems.  Any guesses as to what twelve they will be?  WA-03, WI-07, MA-10 & PA-07 quickly spring to mind.  Will they bother with the ones in AR and TN?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
"include any of the GOP open seats "
Doubt it.  I think Natural Gas is trying to push a particular narrative.  Showing a couple of Democrats leading in Republican held seats would detract from that.
[ Parent ]
Schoen in particular has an agenda
I'm not really putting much stock in these.
[ Parent ]
I'd imagine PPP will have something from IL-10
Kos has got them to poll the other three.
[ Parent ]
God, I would love to see a poll of MA-10
It's one of the only open seat races in the country that no one has bothered to look at yet and no one has leaked an internal from (which I suppose means its close, as both sides expect to win and neither would release an internal that didn't have them well ahead.) If I were rich, I would have ponied up the $500 and asked Rasmussen to poll it for me!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Finally, some good news!

Depends on your POV
Arguably there is something for everyone.
[ Parent ]
I was mostly joking about Penn being an idiot and all
But now that I look at the numbers more closely, you're right, they aren't half bad.

I can only conclude that the Natural Law Party will win control of Congress in a landslide. You heard it here first, folks.

[ Parent ]
Penn is an idiot
Schoen is a tool. I have no idea who or what Berland is.
[ Parent ]
"Noted idiot and asshole Mark Penn"
If only he was introduced this way in the press..

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Whose worse?
Mark Penn or Dick Morris?
[ Parent ]
Dick

[ Parent ]
Penn
Some people still take him seriously. The only folks who think Morris is worth listening to also think Bill Clinton had Vince Foster murdered.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Not buying what they are shilling
What were the lead questions before the major ask of candidate choice? Penn + those frakkers at the gas industry are not pushers of fairness, objectivity, and facts.  There is an agenda to push a meme frosh dems are weak and look at our poll results which prove desired result.

NY-29
Interesting Internals...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Kos just published the 2008 vote share and the ones that jump out at me are NM-02, NV-03, OH-15 and OH-16 as being huge Obama voter deficits. Clearly we won't get the same type of turnout in 2010 as in 2008 but these are nearly 10% swings as far as vote percentages of likely voters. Cutting that advantage to even mid to high single digits can potentially save Harry Teague and Dina Titus for example as they seem to be pulling a fair amount of McCain voters to their side. I can only speak to NM-02 but it clearly shows the lack of Latino energy for Teague.  I have written off OH-15 and OH-16 but these seem cases where if the top of the ticket is weak it is bound to hurt the down ballot races. Strickland and Fisher are hurting now although Strickland seems to be fighting back to some extent.

MI-07 seems to be an overly generous Democratic sample but I haven't followed that race much. Does that make sense?

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

Nate has a piece
Suggesting the whole enthusiasm gap isn't so much Democrats being lethargic but Republican excitement being through the roof. There is probably some truth to that.
[ Parent ]
Link
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

The Gallup numbers are particularly striking. Barring 2006 Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in any midterm in twenty years. Twelve points more so than in 1994.

[ Parent ]
I originally thought your comment was a misprint
Barring 2006 Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in any midterm in twenty years.

But Nate backs it up with Gallup - D enthusiasm in '94 was 32%, it's 44% this year.

[ Parent ]
But GOP enthusiasm is 17 points higher
Than it was in 1994.
[ Parent ]
Noticed that too
It suggests that standard methods for increasing D enthusiasm even further may be limited. :(
[ Parent ]
Still room for hope
All the LV polls are showing a tighter generic ballot than a month ago. Dems are coming home to some extent. The latest Carville-Greenberg memo is worth reading in this regard.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

[ Parent ]
Not sure the electorate will buy "overreach" from Rs
but it's certainly a good way to battle:

This is not a fool's errand. In the 1998 election, we conducted national polls starting in September to see if Democrats could push back against the Republican overreach on Ken Starr and impeachment, as Democrats faced the prospect of historic losses in both the House and Sen- ate. Only two weeks before the election did the plates shift and a Democratic counter-message on impeachment became effective in our polls.

Details do also explain the ad strategy from many of protecting US jobs and Social Security.

In addition, the Dow is back towards 11,000, and that can't hurt.

If the generic ballot is at R+6/7 or less, I maintain we still have a chance of keeping the House. (R+4 should be enough, unless the last minute momentum is against us.)

[ Parent ]
It is no worse than 6 right now IMO

[ Parent ]
Fascinating...
And short of defying history, it's hard to compete with that. Sure, there are strategies Dems can use to drive up base turnout, especially in states with liberal early voting policies, but that will only help on the margins.

On the flipside, you can try to "pop" the enthusiasm level among some Republicans, which I actually think Dems have been trying to do - Pelosi's profile is lower, the Obama White House has essentially telegraphed a less aggressive agenda for next year, Rahm Emmanuel's out, etc.

But I'm not sure how much that will work. Angry and animated voters, when their party is out of power, aren't so easily assuaged.

We shall see...

[ Parent ]
Energy gap....
Popping the GOP's enthusiasm is going to be next to impossible. Nate's article was certainly very frightening as I don't see a way where Democratic energy matches the GOP energy. That said cutting that energy margin by any amount and getting them out to vote even if they aren't energized will be key to holding just a few of these races. These 13 are from districts that had a Republican incumbent before and have PVIs that trend Republican. It is clear that the GOP must win a substantial majority of these to take back the House. Looking at the numbers above it is clear that while our side is not energized fully any moderate uptick in Democratic enthusiasm can mean the difference in tipping a few of these pivotal races.

I know it's not the same thing but in 2006 the Dems took back the Senate via extremely narrow wins out of millions of votes cast in Virginia and Missouri. Had the GOP base been a bit more engaged they could have arguably saved these seats as Democratic enthusiasm was next to impossible to topple. Only time will tell how many narrow wins/losses we will have but we are starting to get close to finding out.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
I don't know...
... if I believe these results or not. I have questions that will help me determine if I believe them. Does the pollster weight the simple random samples? If so, then how?

In determining what is a likely voter, does the pollster ask if the respondents voted in previous general elections?

Or is the LV screening just what's in the memos: Asking if the respondent is likely to vote in the upcoming election?

Are the partisan, gender, age, race demographics of the samples reasonable for the districts or the upcoming election?

Are there any answers to these questions here that I am just not seeing?

By the way, refresh my memory
Why is Mark Penn an idiot and an asshole again?
Clinton 2008

[ Parent ]
Penn, Schoen, and Morris are reasons I question the Clintons' political judgment......
Hillary lost the Dem nomination because this was the caliber of consultants they listened to...no Schoen and Morris weren't helping them, and Morris was long since a hard-right dingbat, but the CALIBER of top advisors was their level, and of course all 3 of these clowns were advising Bill in the mid-90s!  Everyone talked about Clinton's reelection as if he won a Reagan landslide, but he didn't even get 50% of the popular vote.  It was an embarrassing performance for a President with job approvals clearly in the 50s.

Anyway, I don't know what to make of Penn's polls in these House races beyond allowing that the numbers are in the ballpark of credibility.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
One of the more surprising ones...
... is NV-03.

Dina Titus, with good poll numbers and good fundraising, it behind Joe Heck?

Really?

One or two nonpartisan write-ups I've read claim Heck and allies finally are on the air and...
...that's turned the race around back in his favor, after Titus took control in September.

I've read several nonpartisan analysts say this is what they expect in a lot of House races where Dems recovered in September, that the Republicans have saved their massive ad buys for October and will be on offense much more this month and are likely to regain lost ground.

So if that's what's happening in NV-03, it's something analysts predicted would happen in many places.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Mark Penn: Cold November Pain Ahead for Frosh Dems | 84 comments

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