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Polls from IN-Sen, WI-Sen, RI-Gov, RI-01 & TX-Gov

by: DavidNYC

Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 10:51 AM EDT


The polls are coming so fast and furious these days, we have no choice but to throw weird random assortments at you at all hours of the day.

IN-Sen: EPIC-MRA for WISH-TV (9/29-10/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 33
Dan Coats (R): 51
Rebecca Sink-Burris (L): 5
(MoE: ±4.4%)

WI-Sen (PDF): Marist for McClatchy Newspapers (9/26-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45
Ron Johnson (R): 52
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±4.5%)

RI-Gov, RI-01: Brown University (9/27-29, registered voters, 6/27-30 in parens):

Frank Caprio (D): 30 (28)
John Robitaille (R): 14 (8)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 23 (27)
Undecided: 30 (32)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

David Cicilline (D): 39
John Loughlin (R): 21
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±6%)

TX-Gov: Public Strategies for KENS 5 and Texas Belo TV (9/26-10/2, likely voters, no trendlines) (crosstabs - PDF):

Bill White (D): 36
Rick Perry (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±3.7%)
DavidNYC :: Polls from IN-Sen, WI-Sen, RI-Gov, RI-01 & TX-Gov
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Polls from IN-Sen, WI-Sen, RI-Gov, RI-01 & TX-Gov | 66 comments
2 Things...
1. Why in the world did Ellsworth leave his house seat for this run?  It doesn't even seem like hes running hard at all.  Makes no sense to me.

2. It's really sad White is fading.  Perry is such a nutbag, this would have been a great get for us.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Timing is saving Perry.....
Getting elected Governor is a heavy lift for any Texas Democrat in any year, but the anti-Democratic environment is sealing the deal for Perry.

Sadly, it might be doing the same for Rick Scott, which surprises me in that instance.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It was a tough sell
But his new ad is running constantly and the least it could would be to drive some Republicans to the libritarian candidate.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
On the ground in Texas
I work on the Bill White campaign.  I just don't believe that we are this far behind.  Sure, I would believe a poll that showed us less than 8 points behind, but we aren't double digits behind for the following reasons:
We have one of the best ground teams this state has ever seen while Perry's is virtually non-existent.
My job is to convince Republican voters to vote for Bill.  About 30% of them are going to vote for Bill because they hate Rick.
We don't have an enthusiasm gap in this state.  Texas dems are more excited about voting this time than ever before.
I have yet to run into a democrat who is supporting Perry
Independents are breaking our way 60-40 at least.

Conservative Democrat, Tx 27
[ Parent ]
...
where are you working? Dallas, San Antonio? Houston? These things may be true in more urban areas, but applying them to the state as a whole is ridiculous.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Rural South Texas


Conservative Democrat, Tx 27
[ Parent ]
.
Hah, Mexican border Texas is so highly Democratic relative to the rest of the state that it is no surprise that you think Bill White is going to win.

The DFW and Houston (even with his home field advantage) metros are, at best, draws for White. San Antonio metro leans White's way, and Austin and El Paso are locked for White. The rest of the state is in Perry's hand at a margin much larger than White can rack up in total in the metros...

Perry will win - unfortunately.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
he's working the part of the state
That probably will have the worst turn-out for us so saying all these Hispanic voters down there plan to vote and that many GOPers are planning to vote White are some good signs.
[ Parent ]
Denton
I'm gonna be block-walking in Denton County.  I'll be sure to let you all know how Denton County feels outside of the city of Denton.
[ Parent ]
Where and when
I'll probably join you.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Bill Whites Website
Go to his campaign website and sign up for emails.  They send a list of times and places they are doing block walking.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I know of them
I've been in the Denton office plenty of times and put my name on the big board several times last month.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Another poll shows it to be a five point race
[ Parent ]
This seems incredible accurate to reality
I'm still expecting Perry between 51 and 53 and White between 45 and 47.

My question is still how Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant counties break down.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Democratic
Harris and Dallas should break Democratic.  If Tarrant County votes Democratic then that is great news for Bill White.  Obama lost Tarrant county by 11 points the same margin as the state.

I think Bill White can still win, a East Texas (heavily GOP) news paper just slammed Perry over his use of tax-payer money.

[ Parent ]
Come on . . .
EVERY Dem cheered when Ellsworth jumped into the race in the Spring, chalking up his entry as creating an easy hold for Dems in Indiana.  

Indeed, IIRC, there was enormous pressure on Ellsworth to enter the race and on other Indiana politicians (such as Baron Hill) to stay out of the selection process.  In effect, the Dem establishment cleared the field for Ellsworth.  

The Dems have no one but themselves to blame for damaging (maybe destroying) Ellsworth's political career.  They should have never had him run this year, when Coats was a virtual lock to win the Indiana Senate seat and Ellsworth's entry effectively flipped a House seat.    

[ Parent ]
The Dems have no one but Evan Bayh to blame
He waited till the last minute to say he wasn't running.  
[ Parent ]
Something about
wanting to be governor of Indiana again....

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
how do you know he didnt do that on purpose?
This cleared the field for us to get our best candidate in Ellsworth and made it so that none of GOP Congresscritters had a chance to jump in.  Not enough in this climate obviously but we did get set-up for the best scenario the Dems could hope for.
[ Parent ]
Not enough prep time for Ellsworth
Coats had a running start.
[ Parent ]
He really didn't
Coats ran an anemic campaign and barely got through his primary thanks to four other candidates splitting the anti-establishment vote.

Ellsworth might've come in late, but he had no primary opposition and had everything focused on the general. I'd say they were about even in terms of starting strength.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I think Evan Bayh got out to ensure Dems had the best candidate
What's more, I don't think Ellsworth is a bad candidate. He's being beaten by the environment mostly, and somewhat by the fact that Coates is turning out to be a better candidate (at least fundraising wise) than a lot of people thought.  
[ Parent ]
Easy hold?
Rubbish. He hasn't run as good a campaign as expected but yet again Coats is barely above 50. Yeah he wins but not particularly impressively. And no way does it mean the end of Ellsworth. It was worth the risk IMO.
[ Parent ]
^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^

[ Parent ]
+1


NY-29
[ Parent ]
This is where Republicans on this site are annoying, when they...
...mischaracterize or lie outright about what Democrats here say or said about various things, in this case about Ellsworth's prospects in IN-Sen.

No one called this seat an "easy hold" with Ellsworth.  On the contrary, everyone shit bricks that Bayh at the last minute decided to retire and considered it a very tough hold.  SOME Democrats thought this would be a tossup with Ellsworth, and in fact all the nonpartisan analysts initially thought the same and rated it a tossup.

This is one thing that irritates me about certain Republican comments on this site, when they falsely attribute claims to Democrats that were never made.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Not to name names
But some of them are more guilty of it than others.
[ Parent ]
Not making excuses
But those Rs who stay mostly in their own echo chambers, lets say.... the same myths and urban legends are exchanged by so many people, it becomes gospel to them.

It's how they're sometimes able to change the narrative -- so many of them talking essentially the same untruth in unison -- often without realizing it, as they're reassured of their own "truths" from their echo chambers.

[ Parent ]
Not making excuses either
But I have to admit one thing - when Ellsworth got in, and especially when all the stuff about Coates came out about being a lobbyist, wanting to move to North Carolina after he retired, etc. etc., I did rank in my own mind Ellsworth as the favorite in this race (and had I issued Senate predictions at that point, I'm sure I would have made Ellsworth). I think hoosierdem (who I have a lot of respect for on Indiana politics) might have done so too, although I can't speak for him/her. In retrospect, this was very short sighted on my part, but I think I might speak for more than myself when I say I thought Coates would be eaiser to beat. That's why I refer to him as a stronger candiddate - stronger than I expected.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry - lots of mistakes/misspellings in that last post.
Need coffee, stat!  
[ Parent ]
At least I'm between the leftist leaning people what think

what think IN-Sen would be difficult for win.

I think Ellworth would have troubles for win IN-08 too. Cause of the bad environment. Very few democrats in R+ districts are without troubles.

[ Parent ]
Good point
I've seen the "Ellsworth should've stayed in the House" line a few times, and it doesn't really hold much water. Obviously, we'd prefer to have a semi-popular incumbent rather than an open seat, but there's zero reason to think that, given the straits most Midwestern Dems are in, that Ellsworth wouldn't be in a dogfight for reelection by this point.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Obviously less risk with an semi-popular incumbent

But I think the B Ellsworth (and the same for C Melancon) would have some trouble for keep his own district.

The issues what make Ellsworth be back statewide would not benefit him in his district. IN-08 has higher R+ rate than the entire state.

[ Parent ]
But they know him in IN-08
His problem statewide is he hasn't got his message out and people just assume things because he is the Democratic nominee.
[ Parent ]
On the bright side...
Coats is almost certainly one of the ones that will be dead in 2016. I don't see how a candidate with his kind of baggage can win against a candidate with a pulse in any year other than this one

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
At this point...
Who knows what the political climate will be in 2016. It is way too hard to say. Coats doesn't look strong but he could also retire and go back to lobbying and if Mitch Daniels were to jump in the race assuming that he wasn't currently employed (let's hope that this is the case) then he would be a plausible front-runner.

Way too hard to see how wave elections can look 6 years later. As of now the Senate class of 2006 definitely has some people that the GOP is going to target hard like Tester, McCaskill, both Nelsons, and Webb. How successful they will be depends a lot on how things change and who they can recruit to challenge the incumbent along with any open seats that come up.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
I don't think that's true at all. Coats isn't weak in any way......
The "baggage" he has frankly is nonexistent if it doesn't matter now.  Indiana voters who don't care now he's a lobbyist and lived in NC for years, won't care 6 years from now.

Coats is a conservative Republican in a conservative and Republican-favoring state.  There's no reason he can't win reelection in 2016 if he chooses to run.

The meme that Coats is somehow a damaged candidate is a myth and probably always was.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Same as Ohio
Ellsworth doesn't have the money to allow people to know about those things.
[ Parent ]
Well, I don't think Portman is so weak, either. Realistically, where the GOP picks...
...establishment Republicans to be their nominees, they're in great shape for November.  Coats is sitting pretty.  Portman is sitting pretty.  Toomey remade himself into an establishment figure, shedding his extremist Club for Growth image before it could be used against him.  Rubio has done much the same, dispensing with any concern to keep teabaggers happy when Crist stopped being a primary threat, even before Crist went indy.

But Angle, Buck, and Paul remain vulnerable and can't pull away.  THEY have REAL baggage.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Tagging someone as a "lobbyist" doesn't really resonate with people. I would bet the vast majority of people don't even know what that really means or what a lobbyist does. Rubio and Toomey have done a great job of turning from more tea party types into mainstream Republicans.

Had the GOP gone with Greyson, Lowden and Castle those 3 races would be virtually in the bag for them. I disagree on Buck however, I think he's at least as strong as Norton would have been and I wouldn't put him in the same crazy bin with Angle, Paul and O'Donnell. He's a DA in an important part of the state and besides the high heels comment I don't really think he's that extreme. Norton seemed like an empty suit to me.

I would be curious to see how Simmons would be doing in Conn if McMahon hadn't flooded him out with her millions. I feel like he fits the state better and is in general a good candidate, my only concern with him would be money of course.  

[ Parent ]
Disagree on Lowden
I think the "chickens for check-ups" gaffe fatally wounded her -- the only thing worse than being thought of as an extremist (Angle), is being thought of as a joke. Tarkanian would probably be doing better, OTOH.

Agree on Greyson and Castle, though.

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
A better Dem candidate
With competitive financial resources could have defined Portman negatively before he defined himself with his millions. He was tied with Fisher until late summer remember. And a recent poll still had a majority of Ohioan likely voters as blaming Bush for the state of their economy. This was a missed opportunity.
[ Parent ]
Coats
I have a hard time imagining that Coats will run again in 2016.  I'm sure a lot of GOP's in IN are now wishing they'd voted for Stutzman as he's still win big this year and is a rising star rather than a retread.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
with all respect...
1.  It's one thing if it's a special House race (HI), but 6 years of a R is not on the bright side of anything...

2.  The Electoral guesses of 6+ years in the future are just that; to say there's an "almost certainty" Coats will be a 1 termer is ridiculous.  I would put a potential Senator Toomey, Kirk, Portman, Blunt, Angle, and maybe even Miller at more risk, but to call anything a "certainty"?  Daniels could be the nominee on top of the '16 ticket!  Plus the stuff we are throwing at Coats now is the kind of stuff that sticks only the FIRST time back (he's a lobbyist, he doesn't live in Indiana)...how are those going to work when he's been an Indiana Senator for 5+ years?

But I'm still someone that thinks Ellsworth has a chance.  I'd like to see some more rigorous polling...this was the first Non-Ras in six months!  

[ Parent ]
RI
30% undecided in Rhode Island this late in the campaign? Sounds like the entire state is channeling Brett Favre.

41, Ind, CA-05
My hunch is that 30% can't decide between Caprio and Chafee
Robitallie may have already hit his ceiling, given Republicans will probably only compose of about 17% of the state electorate here (plus, in Rhode Island, there are tons of RINOs who might be inclined to back Chafee). Of course, this doesn't necessarily explain the undecideds in that House race.

Otherwise, I'm not surprised Perry will triumph by double-digits - he'd only get a run for his money in an '06-style (not '08, since Obama would only further drag the Democrat down), Dem-friendly cycle. With Indiana, Ellsworth has just run a dreadful campaign - Coats would've lost in '06 or '08. And, yeah, I think Feingold's a goner, unless Johnson makes a gaffe (which is possible).

Amazing how the GOP-ers might triumph in WI and WV, though I still think Manchin might eek it out in the latter. Right now, I see Dems holding 52-48, with holds in WV, CA, WA, NY, CT (they lose all of the toss-ups). WV's the only toss-up in that bunch, so they'd somehow need two of the others to break the Biden tie. I have Boxer up 7, Murray up 4, Gillibrand up 12, and Blumenthal up 10, so it'd probably have to be the first two.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I disagree...
I disagree that 14% is the ceiling for the R given that there's a 2 term Republican Governor leaving office in a few months.  Clearly there are people who'd vote for a Republican (even in 2006 while they threw Chafee out).  I'm amazed Robitallie hasn't been able to take advantage of the liberal split between Caprio and Chafee.  Sometimes I listen to Buddy Cianci (former jailed mayor/Family Guy school namesake) on the radio in Providence and he is all-in against Linc and pro-Caprio.
[ Parent ]
Wow...
no offence but it's pretty obvious that you do not live in Rhode Island. Carcieri's popularity has plummeted since 2006. He had the fortune to face Myrth York (the Martha Coakley of RI) in 2002 and barely squeaked by against a not-much-more-inspiring candidate in 2006. no one knows who Robitaille is and many Republicans are inclined to pick between the lesser of two evils (think CT-Sen 2006). and are you citing former Republican/Indy mayor Cianci as an example of a liberal split? err...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
offense
it's past midnight here, cut me some slack lol.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My hunch is that...
Brown released a bad poll without leaners pushed enough. I'm sorry, Brown is obviously an amazing school being an Ivy League and all, but unfortunately their polling leaves much to be desired.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
don't like seeing Johnson above 50
I hope Russ can turn this around.
I think Russ is done. From what I've read, he never saw this coming and didn't prepare......
Tommy Thompson declined to run, Ron Johnson jumped in the same week as a no-name, and Feingold dismissed him and thought he would cruise the same as his safer colleagues in bluer states.

By the time Feingold got serious, he was already in a dead heat with momentum working against him.

Honestly I'll be shocked if Feingold pulls it out.  Between him and Sestak and Bennet, I think Feingold is the least likely to win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree with your last point...
that Russ is least likely to win out of Sestak, Bennet and Russ, but I'm not going to write off Russ just yet.  I want to see a debate between the two first.  

If Johnson can hold his own in a debate then I'll agree and write it off.  

[ Parent ]
Bennet is most likely IMO

[ Parent ]
I agree
I used to think it was Sestak, but it doesn't seem like it's going to happen. (or at least, it seems less likely than it did two weeks ago - still haven't quite given up).  
[ Parent ]
Agree, and it's a no-brainer Bennet has best shot of the 3.....
He's clearly polling closer to his opponent than Sestak or now even Feingold.

And he has a clearly much more flawed and exploitable opponent.

Not to mention he's not running against the synergy of a strong Republican likely to take his state's governorship.

Bennet has a real shot, even though I still put down his seat as a loss.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Agree
I agree with you about Feingold being the most likely of the 3 to lose. The Rust Belt is going to be brutal for Dems in November and as a 3 term incumbent Feingold is a known quantity to the state so if they want change they are going to dump him. Bennet is in better shape then Sestak as he has an opponent who has made some interesting statements and his state will run a strong Democrat as Governor. He has run a pretty decent campaign thus far has a fair amount of minority voters that he can engage. Sestak I think is stuck in the great candidate but terrible year. That and the relentless pounding that he has been taking from the Chamber certainly don't do him any favors.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
See, I think Feingold's in better shape than Sestak and Bennett
I suspect Feingold would actually be leading Thompson right now, given, much like establishment Dino Rossi, Thompson wouldn't so seamlessly latch onto the outsider mantle. Johnson has done this, but he's also a total political novice, and, thus, perhaps liable to make a gaffe in the coming weeks. For what it's worth, my projection has Johnson up 4.

Toomey, for his part, appears to have a consistent high-single-digit advantage, and, sans the recent PPP poll, Buck has been in nice shape too. I have Buck up 6 and Toomey up 5.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Feingold is in clearly worse shape because Johnson now is consistently over 50......
People talk about an incumbent under 50 being in trouble, but when the CHALLENGER is OVER 50 in EVERY poll, the incumbent is REALLY toast.

I just looked at the Pollster.com chart to double-check, and sure enough Ron Johnson is over 50 in EVERY poll over the past month, a total of 6 polls by 4 different pollsters.  Russ hasn't done better than 45 since Rasmussen had him at 46 in August.

Given that he's an elected incumbent seeking reelection, that puts him in much worse shape than Sestak and Bennet.  Wisconsin voters know Feingold very well and a clear majority are done with him.

In contrast, Sestak and Bennet at least are much more unknown, and their opponents aren't clearing 50 in polling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
HI-Gov
Not surprising given the HI-01 result, but I hope we'll see other polling...
...to confirm or contradict this.

Maybe it really is tight, maybe the wave has crossed the Pacific and crashed into the islands.

At least Obama's job approval is still in the 50s, but that's lower than I would've guessed.

And Lingle's job approval at 46-45 is slightly better than the last polling I saw, although this might be a function of a GOP-friendly turnout model keeping her dead-even compared to previous polls.

I think/hope this is Abercrombie's low water mark, and Hanabusa will win more comfortably.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I would think an automated poll
Would have even more trouble in Hawaii than is usually the case with non-response. Still, I have to move this to Leans Dem at best.
[ Parent ]
Agree on your first point, and agree it's lean D now, but it's no worse than that......
It's no tossup in my book unless and until a credible poll shows Aiona actually ahead.  The state's natural Democratic impulse is powerful, and Abercrombie should be favored to eventually pull away the same way O'Malley is already doing in Maryland, and Boxer and Brown have started to do in California.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Still I think it is necessary a second poll

For move this to Lean D. And I'm sure we will see more polls fast finding the confirmation like we see for CT-Sen, NY-Gov, NH-Gov or NY-Sen recently.

I agree about the rest.

[ Parent ]
I like the polls of Brown for RI

They include results for the gubernatorial race, for the two house districts and for all the statewide offices. Good work.

More on Johnson's trying to protect the Catholic diocese from investigation
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Polls from IN-Sen, WI-Sen, RI-Gov, RI-01 & TX-Gov | 66 comments

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