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SSP Daily Digest: 10/6 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 7:58 AM EDT


  • KY-Sen: Jack Conway has succeeded in getting a false and misleading ad by the "First Amendment Alliance" pulled off at least one television station, Louisville's Fox 41.
  • WI-Sen: On the other side of the equation, Russ Feingold is being forced by the NFL to alter an ad which featured some footage of embarrassing end zone victory dances, including Randy Moss taunting Green Bay Packer fans. Could this really have been a mindless goof by Feingold's media team? The Hotline's Tim Alberta had the same thought I did: This sure was a good way to get plenty of free media coverage for this ad. (Judging by the number of Twitter mentions, at least, this ploy worked - if it was indeed the plan.)
  • AZ-08: The Smart Media Group is reporting that the DCCC has cancelled all of their ad buys in Tucson except for the final week of October. I suppose there are three ways you can interpret this news. The first is that Gabby Giffords is cruising and doesn't need much help. The second I'll call "panzers reconsolidating": She's basically doomed. And the third lies between the two: The D-Trip is performing triage, figuring that Giffords is strong enough to have a chance on her own, while other more fragile campaigns are in greater need of help. Choose your own adventure!
  • NY-24: Mike Arcuri is a lucky man. As you may recall, he created a new third party just so that he could have an extra ballot line to run on (and perhaps draw in a few votes from people who like him personally but can't stomach the thought of pulling the lever for a Democrat). The problem: He called it the "New York Moderates" party, but state law forbids any party name from including the words "American," 'United States," "National," "New York State," "Empire State," or any abbreviation of those. Fortunately, a court ruled that he was able to retain the line by renaming it just the "Moderates" party.
  • Fundraising:

    • MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan: $2.1 million raised, "on par with" Roy Blunt
    • PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D): $3.2 million raised, Pat Toomey (R): $3.8 million raised
    • CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D): $361K raised from 9/16-29, Dan Maes (R): $28K raised, Tom Tancredo (ACP): $149K
    • OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D): $1.6 million raised from 9/3-10/4
    • OH-15: Steve Stivers (R): $757K raised, Mary Jo Kilroy (D): $603K raised

    Independent Expenditures:

    • CT-Sen: Sources tell Aaron Blake that the DSCC has added $1.2 million to its buy here
    • OH-01: The Campaign for Working Families throws down $125K for ads to help Steve Chabot (R)
    • OR-05: CULAC the PAC chips in $34K for mail on behalf of Rep. Kurt Schrader (D)

    SSP TV:

    • NV-Sen: Harry Reid's latest is actually half-positive/half-negative, and concludes by calling Sharron Angle "a foreign worker's best friend"; Angle's newest is a race-baity spot that - jeez - features footage of scary brown people sneaking through a fence (wish I were kidding)
    • PA-Sen: The DSCC also has an ad out that's fairly race-baity, talking about Pat Toomey's support for sending jobs to China - complete with Asian-style gong noises that were embarrassing even when John Hughes brought us Long Duk Dong more than a quarter-century ago
    • GA-Gov: In a reversal of the usual roles, Republican Nathan Deal paints himself as the friend of teachers (and education in general) in his first attack ad
    • NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo continues to sound like an anodyne Republican in his ads (cut wasteful government, blah blah), and says that Carl Paladino's "anger is not a governing strategy"
    • AL-05: Steve Raby goes back to his mailbox to criticize Mo Brooks for being a DC tool (and then litters)
    • CA-45: In this Steve Pougnet ad, little kids singing bowdlerized versions of the "Miss Mary Mack" (Mary Bono Mack, get it?) schoolyard rhyme are annoying
    • CO-07: In an ad with weak production values, Ryan Frazier attacks Ed Perlmutter for supporting the stimulus and cap-and-trade
    • FL-12: Dennis Ross recites some conservative pabulum
    • FL-25: In a minute-long spot, Joe Garcia uses news coverage to revisit the David Rivera ramming-a-delivery-truck-carrying-his-opponents-flyers incident
    • ID-01: Walt Minnick can't resist hitting the illegal immigration theme again - and he, too, features footage of Hispanic-looking people. Just uck
    • MN-06: A Tarryl Clark ad with really low production values stands out only because the otherwise serious-sounding female announcer declares: "Michele Bachmann: Not doing [bleep] for the people of the sixth district" (yes, there's an actual bleep sound) [UPDATE: Gah, it's just a fucking web ad.]
    • NC-02: Bob Etheridge hits one of my favorite attack ad topics: Renee Ellmers' support of a 23% national sales tax
    • NV-03: As she did in her last ad, Dina Titus compares Joe Heck to Sharron Angle, this time attacking his record on education
    • NY-13: Big fucking surprise: Despite voting against healthcare reform, Mike McMahon is getting attacked on it anyway - for not supporting repeal, and for just generally siding with Pelosi & Obama. Will Democrats never learn? Don't answer that
    • NY-20: Chris Gibson attacks Scott Murphy for supporting the stimulus. Man, it was a damn long time ago, but remember how much traction Murphy got last year by attacking Jim Tedisco (lol) for opposing the stimulus? (Not surprised to see the ad in that link has since been removed)
    • OH-18: Oh man. Clearly polls must be showing Dems that attacks on Republicans for wanting to send jobs overseas must be especially potent, 'cause here's another one, from Zack Space. No gong in this one, though - instead, he features a prototypical Chinese dragon, and then even has the announcer say a mock "thank you" in Chinese! I really can't wait for this election to be over
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/6 (Morning Edition)
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    Here's a real turd sandwich for breakfast.
    I posted it in an older thread this morning, but I'll re-post here.  These are House freshman polls from Mark Penn.

    http://thehill.com/house-polls...

    AZ-01 - Gosar 46, Kirkpatrick 39
    CO-04 - Gardner 44, Markey 41
    IL-11 - Kinzinger 49, Halvorson 31
    MD-01 - Harris 43, Kratovil 40
    MI-07 - Walberg 41, Schauer 41
    NV-03 - Heck 47, Titus 44
    NM-02 - Pearce 46, Teague 42
    OH-01 - Renacci 42, Boccieri 39
    OH-15 - Stivers 47, Kilroy 38
    PA-03 - Kelly 49, Dahlkemper 36
    VA-02 - Rigell 42, Nye 36
    VA-05 - Hurt 45, Periello 44

    Sadly none of this looks unreasonable to me.  It is a big shit sandwich for all, and I mean all, of these candidates.  If there's a silver lining, it's that Periello, Markey, and Schauer are doing a little better than I might have thought.  But they are still doing shitty, mired in the low 40's.  Indeed Penn doesn't have ANY of these freshmen breaking 45%.

    I would not look at these as Dem polls though.  Penn clearly selected many of the very most vulnerable freshman, which I suspect was deliberately designed to feed the doom narrative and thereby draw maximal attention to the polls.  Penn's not doing Dems any favors here.

    Next week, Penn does open seats, the week after that sophomores, and the week after that veterans.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    My response from the other thread
    America's Natural Gas Alliance sponsored the polls.  Read them accordingly.

    Anyway, given that I have the Dems losing all these seats save NV-3, these are not all bad results.  Schauer is tied.  I thought Markey and Boccieri would be down by a lot more.  Periello is right there, and Kratovil and Teague are close.



    [ Parent ]
    Have they donated...
    To any of the committees? To certain candidates?  

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    pretty much agree
    Yesterday, I had all but 2 of these seats falling, NV-3 and NM-2, and NM-2 would've turned over with the pair of polls showing Teague down by 1 that came out last night.  

    If the democrats are able to hold more than say, 3 or 4 of these seats, it likely means that Republican gains won't be as great as thought.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    3 or 4
    If they win 3 or 4, I don't see how the Republicans win the house.

    [ Parent ]
    On another side
    if this numbers are correct (and that's big IF) - only 3-4 seats are surely lost for Democrats: Halvorson's, Dahlkemper's, Kilroy's and, possibly, Kirkpatrick's

    [ Parent ]
    Lost
    The only margin that surprises is PA-3.  Hard to believe that Dahlkemper is that low.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree, but Pennsylvania this year looks more like
    neighbouring midwestern states (Ohio, Indiana) then northeastern, where Democratic positions are better.

    [ Parent ]
    PA 3
    Phil English held that district for a long time without too much trouble.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Let's see...
    NV-03, NM-02, VA-05, and MI-07... There, 4 seats I think we can win. Add CO-04 for an extra 5th. (I guess Markey's internal poll really wasn't all that far off.)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    None of those is surprisingly bad, and Perriello's is surprisingly good......
    The best released internals for Perriello have had him down 2, this one says he's down a single point.

    If he's really this close, and he can get a favorable turnout model through superior field, he's the best-positioned of this bunch for an upset win.

    I don't write off Teague, either, simply because the dynamic is a bit different with Pearce himself the recent former incumbent and from the tea leaves not necessarily beloved in the district in his own right.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I can't understand polls in Perriello's case
    They vary way too wildly - from 1 percentage point to about 20. By this time they must more or less converge, but - no....

    [ Parent ]
    Other than SUSA...
    Who else had Perriello down 20 or more? IMHO SUSA is the biggest outlier of this cycle because of their always wild numbers.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Only SUSA...
    You are right that only SUSA had Perriello down by the 20 point margin. This is interesting as all other non-SUSA/GOP commissioned polls have shown him within 2 points of Hurt. He is stuck in the mid 40s though which is a huge red flag. The SUSA poll showed an 11% AA vote and the SEIU/League of Conservative Voters commissioned poll released yesterday that showed him down 2 had 19% AA vote. The district is 25% AA so my guess is that the AA vote will be somewhere around 15-18% so I think that 19% seems a bit high and overly optimistic. I would guess that he has to be down around 4-7 points but if polls like this keep coming out maybe I am wrong and he is really only down a point or two. If that is truly the case he'll have to get the AA vote up as much as he possibly can in order to have a fighting chance. The numbers suggest that he can grow there it is obviously a matter of how much in fact he can.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Btw, where are the internals here?
    I start to suspect polls where I can't see the internals. How many Democrats were used in the sample? How many Indies? And what do these Indie numbers really look like?

    Call me suspicious, but I like to see internals backing up the top lines.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    What is up with IL-11?
    Halvorson won this in a blowout in 2008, and it's not a particularly red district. is Kinzinger that good, is Halvorson that weak, or are people that angry? I was expecting to see margins like this for the Virginia seats and CO-04, but I never expected this race to be anything but a tossup right to election day.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Outsourcing
    Murphy is running a good ad in PA-8 attacking "congressman" Fitzpatrick for voting for legislation that sent jobs overseas.

    AZ-08
    Is Option #2 or #3, probably #2.  I guarantee you they are not abandoning Giffords to the wolves, and won't do so unless they pull out of AZ-01 and AZ-05 first.  Giffords is the strongest of those three incumbents and the most proficient at fundraising, is in the most friendly district, and has the weakest opponent.  If the panzers start reconsolidating, you will see the D-trip pull out of AZ-01 first.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    Completely agree
    Giffords is the strongest of the vulnerable Arizona Dems, and her opponent is the weakest of the challengers. She also has tons of money and isn't afraid to use it, as I have been seeing tons and tons of ads from her. Also, it seems like the angry, carpetbagging geriatrics have gotten sore throats from mindlessly yelling at her, as I haven't seen one of those awful 60+ Association ads in quite a while. Occasionally Jesse Kelly has found enough change under his couch to air an ad for a week or two, but Giffords is much more visible. Also, we haven't seen the NRCC out here, either. I don't think that she's out of the woods yet, but there are surely Dems who are in greater need of a monetary investment.

    Here's Giffords' newest ad, which I don't believe has been in the daily digest. More 23% unfair tax fun!

    Also, here's an older one, but SSP never mentioned it and it's good and getting lots of airtime. Nice to see a Democratic ad talking about Democratic accomplishments for once.


    22, Democrat, AZ-01
    Peace. Love. Gabby.


    [ Parent ]
    Feingold Ad
    Ironically that Feingold ad looks genius right now as it looks as though Randy Moss is going to be traded back to the Vikings today.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/bost...

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    I'm not even joking
    In lue of the trade between the Patriots and the Vikings sending Moss back to Minnesota, this is an absolute stroke of genious and timing by Feingold.  I won't say that it'll be a game changer, but if Moss would only come out and endorse Johnson, now that would seal the deal for Feingold!

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Stephen
    I nearly spit out my morning coffee when I saw this news in the morning. Feingold has to be laughing about this stroke of genius. Definitely not a game changer but the ad will get a lot of "free publicity" for Feingold and will associate Johnson with Randy Moss which now isn't so far back that it is hard to remember Randy.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm sorry but I can't imagine this makes one bit of difference.....
    Yes Feingold's ad is getting some free publicity that helps rather than hurts from the fact of the Moss clip, but it doesn't help much.  Voters aren't voting on football.

    Feingold needs a coherent message about himself and a coherent message about Johnson to have a chance at a comeback.  He's doing OK, just OK, but OK, defining himself a little better, but his attacks on Johnson aren't sticking.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Sorry...
    I meant to imply that it is more ironic then anything given that Moss appears heading back to Minnesota. Feingold is consistently down 6-10 points in polling so he is going to need more then Packer fans not liking Randy Moss to turn the race around.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    they dont vote on football
    But if it comes down to being undecided, Wisconites will go with the candidate who trashes Randy Moss, Brett Favre and the Vikings.  If I were on a computer I'd check the NFL schedule because maybe there is a Vikings/Packers game right before EDay.

    Cannot wait to rub a Superbowl Championship in those fucking cheeseheads faces!  Glory is upon us!


    [ Parent ]
    im contradicting myself
    People don't vote based off of football related things unless they are undecided and use a football issue to be a deciding factor.  There, that's a nice little logical formula to not make myself sound dumb.

    [ Parent ]
    Vikings @ Packers, 10/24
    I'm guessing Russ will shake every hand there that Sunday.

    [ Parent ]
    Will he be there?
    I remember something about how at the last Packers game, Feingold was in some small town in a parade, while Johnson was tailgating. They said its just Feingold's unconventional way of campaigning.  

    [ Parent ]
    Seriously
    Just heard about the trade and then read this. Does Feingold have an operative in the Minnesota Vikings front office or something?

    24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

    [ Parent ]
    A few ad comments
    1. I think the PA-SEN ad is fair game; the gong alone is fine -- had they done the stereotypical music cue or pidgin voice, that's different.

    2.  The MN-06 ad has to be web-only.  There's no Stand By Your Ad disclaimer.

    3.  As noted above, here's how to do the outsourcing ad right:


    That PA-Sen ad made me cringe
    Besides, Pat Toomey cant run for Senate in China because the only elected office there is a low-level municipal position.

    Just saying.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    CO-Sen, CT-Sen, NM-Gov: Dem internals show improvement......
    CO-Sen:  Bennet's internal has him up 44-41, and 45-43 with "definite" voters.  That's NOT promising to me!  I think Bennet really is only a quasi-incumbent, it's not quite right to measure his polling strength or weakness the same as people like Feingold or Murray who have repeatedly won election to their offices.  But this isn't truly an open seat, either, and 44/45 a month out is not good for him IMO.

    http://www.politico.com/static...

    CT-Sen:  Blumenthal's latest internal has him up 53-38, corroborating the recent flurry of polls that have him comfortably ahead.

    http://www.politico.com/static...

    NM-Gov:  This one's the worst of all.  Denish is down "only" 3 points in her latest internal,
    49-46.  The linked polling memo spins this as improvement from 49-44 in each of the previous 2 months, but any campaign junkie knows that 2-point "movement" is at least as likely just statistical noise.  That Martinez has held steady at 49 is not promising for Denish.

    http://www.politico.com/static...

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Unknown w/r/t Bennet and the so-called "incumbent rule"
    The first question depends on whether one believes in the so-called "incumbent rule" where late undecideds break against the incumbent.

    (I think it's something that happens a bit more often in a wave year, but that's just a feeling.)

    As Bennet is a short-time appointee running for the very first time, does the "incumbent rule" apply to him?

    Even if one does not believe in the "incumbent rule," would late breakers split differently in CO when compared with say WI or WA?


    [ Parent ]
    Yup, that's my point, Bennet is in a gray area on the incumbent rule......
    This race just isn't a referendum on him the same way as for an incumbent who voters previously chose and who has served a full term.  Bennet is much more UNfamiiliar to voters than that.

    And yet he IS the incumbent U.S. Senator, he has a record now, and that means this can't be treated the same as an open seat.

    That Bennet is in a gray area makes it hard to determine whether sitting on 44/45 is OK or trouble, but on balance I suspect it's trouble if for no other reason than that in a wave election the party in power loses most undecideds.  Bennet needs to buck that trend here......pun intended.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    He needs to make Buck unacceptable
    He seems to be working on that.  

    [ Parent ]
    Could some one tell me where this "rule" came from?
    I've heard it cited on multiple occasions, most notably in 2004 w.r.t Kerry, but I've never witnessed an election where this played out in reality.  It seems like more of a myth than a rule, though I would be happy to be corrected if someone can provide data to back it up.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Two schools of thought on the subject
    http://www.pollingreport.com/i...

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

    These two schools aren't completely incompatible, and the pollingreport.com article has serious logical flaw -- which doesn't necessarily negate the rule... (i.e. while it finds that in 82% of cases, a majority of undecideds go to the challenger, it does NOT mean that 82% of undecideds go to the challenger.)


    [ Parent ]
    It's a "rule" that applies only when the incumbent or incumbent's party is unpopular......
    If an incumbent's job approval or favorability is upside down, undecideds likely to break against him/her.

    In the case of House races where even incumbents are often unfamiliar to voters, that the incumbent's party is disfavored in a wave election causes the same thing to happen as if the incumbent were personally unpopular.

    It applies reliably only when the incumbent or his/her party is unpopular.

    It applies less reliably, but still somewhat, when an incumbent's popularity/polling is borderline.  Most of us on Team Blue errantly thought it would apply to Bush in 2004, but he was barely popular enough to survive; he was borderline but not clearly underwater, contrary to what we deluded ourselves into believing.

    In the case of an incumbent Senator, who is much more well-known than a mere Congressman, being in the mid-40s less than a month from the election is bad news.  That's where Feingold is, and he's most likely toast.  But Bennet is a tweener, he's not a full-term incumbent who's faced voters before and has the familiarity that comes with that.  So it't less clear.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    But what if the challenger is just as...
    Unpopular, or perhaps even LESS popular than the incumbent?

    That's why I seriously wonder if Sharron Angle will get most undecideds here in NV-Sen. (Harry Reid still may not either, but that's what "None of These Candidates" is for.)

    Now if Bennet's internal is to be believed, his favorables are better than Buck's. And if this becomes a persistent pattern, will most undecideds just go for Buck, someone they really don't like, just because Bennet is the incumbent?

    Without a doubt, this cycle has already disproved a whole lot of "conventional wisdom"... But I have a feeling we're not done yet.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Sure, that's the great equalizer, it's why Harry Reid can win......
    But in most cases the incumbent's opponent isn't someone akin to Sharron Angle.  In most cases the opponent is a much more respectable person than that, and much harder to villify.

    Regarding Bennet and Buck, Buck isn't perceived nearly as badly in CO as Angle is in NV, partly because he's probably not quite as bad, and partly because Bennet, with a lot less money than Reid and in a bigger and more expensive state than NV, doesn't have the resources to pound on his opponent as heavily as Reid can.

    I won't be completely shocked if Bennet wins.  One hypothesis I have is that maybe, just maybe, the worst teabaggers all go down as voters decide they're a bridge too far, and that translates to Reid, Bennet, Conway, and maybe even McAdams all winning.  But as the election gets closer, it looks like voters are willing to vote for these characters, Angle being the lone possible exception.

    Even with Reid-Angle I'm getting a little more nervous lately.  Polling has slowed down there recently and the last few except for POS and the Rasmussen/Fox poll show a true tossup.

    Any new developments on the ground?

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    party of undecideds
    Shouldn't most undecideds be expected to break in favor of their own party's candidate? For example, in Illinois most of the undecideds are Dems, so people were arguing that most of them were likely to break for the Dem.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Sometimes yes, and maybe in Illinois yes, but not when...
    ...there's an elected incumbent running for reelection.

    If you're Russ Feingold or Patty Murray, whatever Democrats are showing up as undecided at this late stage are probably not going to vote for you.

    But for Giannoulias, yeah he still can bring them home.  It's an open seat, it's Obama's home state and former seat, they'll likely vote for Alexi.  But that might not be quite enough, it's not like Giannoulias is polling at 45 to begin with--he's NOT!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I'm leaning Bennet FTW
    Cyclone, I love ya, but there's internal inconsistency to what you're saying. If Bennet is not an incumbent and it's an open seat, then a lead, any lead, is good, especially for a newly-purple state like Colorado. Also, they spotted Republicans a 5-point advantage over their actual active registration numbers. With a ton of competitive congressional races, this seat, the wacky governor's race, and Colorado's consistently competitive Legislature, there are plenty of reasons for Democrats to turn out. Bennet is also in positive territory on favorables, while Buck's got a 10-point deficit on that score.

    And the problem is that while Ken Buck is a racist ultraconservative wackjob, Dan Maes makes Buck look almost, well...sane.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Relative favorables -- is that the key
    for how undecideds break in a race like CO-Sen?

    Or do we have to hope for Buck to pull a Paul or an Angle for Bennet to win? How are Bennet's ads? This is one place where I'd hope the DSCC is going in big.


    [ Parent ]
    No inconsistency at all, I said he's in-between......
    Bennet is an incumbent.  He has a record as a U.S. Senator.  But he has never faced voters before and is far less familiar to voters than someone they voted for at least once before, and that undercuts the idea that the election is a referendum on him.

    That makes it hard to gauge if "any lead" is good, or if his being so far under 50 in his own polling is a red flag.

    I don't think we really know.

    What I do know is that I follow the totality of polling rule unless and until an outlier proves right, which of course can't happen except in the election itself.  So right now I consider Buck still on top, notwithstanding PPP and the Bennet internal.  I'll honestly be surprised if Bennet pulls this out on election day; we're in for a surprisingly good night if he does.  In a wave election, Senate elections don't have the outlying surprises that House races have.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Coons up big
    Carney too.

    Yet another poll shows Chris Coons with a commanding lead over Christine O'Donnell... Coons leads 49%-30% in a new University of Delaware Center for Political Communication poll. With leaners, Coons' lead expands to 61%-37%.

    In the Delaware House race, John Carney leads 48%-31% over Glen Urquhart.

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...


    THAT's not surprising
    Delaware Republicans fucked mightily with candidates in this state. The state is somewhere between moderate and moderate-liberal in it's political inclinations, and to have a chance Republican needed very moderate candidates...

    [ Parent ]
    If I were to ever write a book on how stupid republicans are
    DE-sen, 2010, would be my first half of the book.  The second half would be CO-gov, 2010.  I mean honestly, has there ever been any race ever where someone was a 100% sure loser, but won the primary against a 65% sure winner?

    It utterly confounds me.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    Another Delware poll -- Coons by 17
    [ Parent ]
    KS-4
    Raj Goyle is hitting outsourcing too pretty hard: http://goyleforcongress.com/pa...

    22, male, VA-10

    Great ad. This WILL be a single-digit race. I hope he can pull off the upset. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Here's a lesson NOT to read too much into party committee ad buys......
    First Read this morning:

    *** The Coakley lesson? Here's something worth paying attention to: the DSCC is advertising in Connecticut (despite the fact that Dick Blumenthal is leading), and the NRSC is now upping its advertising in Kentucky (even though Rand Paul is ahead). A theory why this is occurring -- the parties are fearful of screwing up these races. Call it the Martha Coakley lesson. But also don't forget this about Kentucky: While John Kerry won just 40% of the presidential vote in the state in 2004, Dan Mongiardo lost by just one percentage point to Jim Bunning that same year.

    Well said, and the same thing goes for some of our incumbents.  Not every incumbent Dem who goes on the air for the first time in many years is in trouble.  Some of them are just making sure they STAY out of trouble, rather than become the next Jim Ryun and Jeb Bradley and Melissa Hart who don't realize trouble until it's too late.

    Regarding CT-Sen in particular, the Republicans who frequent this site can stop being so excited about the DSCC reservation.  Blumenthal is winning comfortably, certainly more comfortably than Rand Paul is.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    RIP Karen McCarthy (fmr. Rep., D-MO)
    Oh my God. :-( I sat with her on a plane once in 2002......
    By chance we were seated together on a Midwest Airlnes flight when I was flying home to Iowa and she was going on to Kansas City.  Or, it could've been the return flight to D.C., I honestly can't remember for sure.

    She was the nicest person, very down-to-earth.  We talked politics, I talked up the Democrat challenging Latham at the time in IA-04.  I wasn't soliciting anything at all, but she said she'd give the guy some money.  She really had the air of a nice lady with no political facade.  I really liked her.

    Prayers for her family.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Was that John Norris running in IA-02?
    I was a big fan of his.  

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    this is a surprise! Abercrombie leads Aiona 49-47%(!) in a Daily Kos/PPP poll.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    Not after the Hanabusa-Djou poll it isn't


    [ Parent ]
    I expected
    Hanabusa-Djou to be a barn burner, but not the governor's race! How popular is Linda Lingle these days is the big question.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    The shock was in seeing Aiona tied in that sample
    So I expected this. Lingle is at 46-45 approve in this poll. Obama at 53-37 needs to offer to do for both Dems what he did for Richmond.

    [ Parent ]
    I was thinking the same. The shocker to me in all this is...
    ...Abercrombie not substantially outperforming Hanabusa.

    But I'll say this, I recall Abercrombie did have to fight for reelection in 1994 against Orson Swindle, and it was something like 54-46, no blowout.  So this isn't unprecedented.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I know the RGA have been up with ads
    Anybody know if Abercrombie is up?

    [ Parent ]
    RGA
    I've actually been quite impressed by the RGA's ads for Duke Aiona.  I think this is a case of Haley Barbour having lots of money to play with and he threw some early $ at HI to see if it would help.  Clearly, it has.  I'm wondering now if Mufi might have been the better candidate to go against Aiona?  If he wins, the Dems have a future problem as they have two very old Senators in the state.  The GOP has a weak bench, but if they are able to add Aiona to Lingle as possible future senate candidates, they might just be able to snag one when they come available.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    WV-Gov
    Raese 50-44

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    I get it would be tough either running now or in two years but looking at the bigger picture it would have been far better for him to lose in 2012 and keep the seat until then while others fall. GOP +8.


    In '12
    they wouldn't have been able to use the "keep him as Governor" angle.  He made his own bed on this one.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    I do see the argument on the other side though.

    [ Parent ]
    For once I buy a Rasmussen poll at face value. This one's slipping away and...
    ...I have a hard time believing otherwise absent a reversal of the trend.

    At least there's still TIME to villify Raese.  Manchin has 3 weeks-plus, unlike Coakley who fell behind with less than a couple weeks to spare.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I doubt West Virginians care
    How villianous Raese is. All that matters is they dislike the president and want Manchin to remain as governor.

    [ Parent ]
    Yea
    I'll admit that I didn't expect this when Moore-Capito decided not to run.  I simply saw a two-time loser running against a popular Governor and didn't think he'd have much chance.  Raese seems to be running one of the smartest campaigns of the cycle - who knew he had it in him?

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    He had his own money behind him
    He got off to a head start. That might be making more of a difference than people think. Capito wouldn't have had as much money and Manchin would have been faster out the gate.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    I think you are right.  Capito only had about $500,000 as I recall and would have had to raise a bunch.  Plus, she is an incumbent in an outsider year and her father was corrupt.  Raese was able to go out and get a top-notch team (as he clearly has done) and catch Manchin napping.  I guess - like Coakley - he thought he was in-like-Flynn and didn't have to worry.  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    No
    In a sense he is running a horrible campaign actually. His comments have been incredibly stupid. He is just lucky. People dislike Obama and Manchin just so happens to be a dem. Him spending is not the sign of a good candidate just a lucky one. It does not take smarts to spend an unlimited amount of money.

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    I am stil waiting for outside confirmation...
    ...and not from PPP.  These Appalachian states are very hard to poll.  Aren't there any local pollsters who can do this?

    Anyways, Rasmussen always had Manchin ahead until PPP gave them permission to put him behind, so we really don't know if PPP's poll just made the narrative easier for everyone else.

    One positive sign is that the DSCC is NOT putting significant dollars into this race... certainly not even close to matching what the NRCC is putting in, so that should be comforting.  The lack of objective polling in this race is disturbing, though.

    Personally, I thought Manchin outsmarted himself by caving to right wing interests and running this year.   He does have a decent shot at pulling it off in 2012 if he loses this year considering that Raese would probably end up being a trainwreck and most West Virginians would assume that Obama would be losing in 2012 (regardless of how he's really doing).


    [ Parent ]
    I would like to see more polling
    But it is very wrong to suggest PPP are anything but objective.

    [ Parent ]
    Not accusing PPP...
    They are a great pollster, but they have a GOP house effect this cycle and they use the same automated process that Rasmussen uses.  It would be nice to see some other pollsters jump in and help get a bigger picture.  The DSCC doesn't seem to be in panic mode, but it would be nice to know why.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree and disagree
    He did outsmart himself, but I don't think he has a decent shot in '12.  Raese will be the incumbent and won't have the baggage of a Republican administration to carry.

    Anyway, given that I fear that Manchin could be Ben Nelson II, I won't be shedding any tears should he lose.


    [ Parent ]
    Raese is quite a nutjob....
    ...and would be more vulnerable once he has a record of being a nutjob.  The state is still fond of most Democratic values on the whole, even if they hate the president.  If Rase starts going against things that help bring home the bacon in WV he's going to be vulnerable in 2012.

    [ Parent ]
    "fond of most Democratic values on the whole"
    Prior to 2000 that might have been true.  But it's not just Obama.  The state "hated" Gore and "hated" Kerry.  And this was one of the few states that went for Dukakis in '88!  It's gone the way of the rest of the Appalachin belt.

    [ Parent ]
    Is the Chamber running ads for Manchin
    Considering they're spending millions for virtually every Republican they've backed, it'd be nice if we got some help over here. Not that I was expecting the CoC to be consistent and show a shred of principle, but still.

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    Could turn out like PA-12
    I'm not sure, but I think the polls are really pushing the national element and that might be skewing the result toward the Republican.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    Not impossible I guess


    [ Parent ]
    Other than Reid maybe surviving
    This would be the stunner of the cycle. The thing that surprises me most is that Manchin is doing the opposite of a "Coakley"--he's up on the air hammering Raese and touting his service, and if you believe the poll he's slipping further. I think that NRSC radio ad, "Keep Joe Away from Washington," was really effective in defining the narrative of the race.

    Not time to dance in the endzone yet (I miss you already, Randy) though--I would be very, very wary of underestimating the strength of unions and yellow-dog Democrats in West Virginia.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    So
    After 4 polls with Raese leading, I guess I can now say I told ya'll so.  

    [ Parent ]
    What did you tell us?
    That Raese would win?

    [ Parent ]
    Well, 2 polls...
    One and a half, really... 3 of the four are rasmussen and the fourth is PPP with a big GOP house effect this cycle.

    Aren't there ANY West Virginia gold standard pollsters out there, or do we have to rely exclusively on robopollsters?


    [ Parent ]
    You STILL don't trust PPP?
    I really can't believe there are still people that think PPP is not a good pollster just because they show results they don't like.  

    [ Parent ]
    I DO trust PPP very much....
    I think they are the best pollster out there this cycle, but even the best pollsters can be off once in awhile, and they have only polled this race once.  Rasmussen is simply not trustworthy.  They were in the field at the same time as PPP and had vastly different results at the time.

    I also know that polling can be especially tricky in places like West Virginia.  Appalachia is not easy to poll for various reasons, even Tom Jensen at PPP has pointed that difficulty out in the past.

    Nate Silver has asked Time/CNN to poll West Virginia.  We'll see how that goes.


    [ Parent ]
    What evidence do you have for a PPP house effect?
    They are the only pollster to show Bennet with a lead in Colorado since the summer and have also given Blumenthal better numbers than Quinnipiac, which is certainly R-leaning this year. They did miss the PA-12 and NY-23 special elections, but they nailed MA-Sen, NJ-Gov and most of the primaries this year. For me, they're the gold standard of statewide polling until proven otherwise.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    They have an extremely tight voter screen...
    Which is compounded by the automated poll effect.  Their accuracy in special elections and primaries were the result of a self-admittedly looser screen pre-labor day.  Quite frankly, I don't understand why they didn't just stick with what was working instead of tightening things up even further.

    [ Parent ]
    There is one consistent problem with PPP that makes me suspicious of them......
    They consistently have the worst favorable ratings for EVERYBODY.

    It's not a partisan House effect, it's Republicans and Democrats alike.

    The shark-jumping data point that really made me question them somewhat a few months ago was when they did an Ohio poll and for the hell of it threw in a question on George Voinovich's popularity...and he was underwater.  I've seen occasional other pollsters poll on Voinovich, and he's always in positive territory.  Only PPP had him underwater.

    This for a guy who a loyal "NO" vote with his party on everything until the small business bill in September.  A guy who is personally well-liked.  A guy who is retiring this year after having been popular his entire career.

    But NOW he's unpopular?

    Doesn't make sense.

    It's not just Voinovich, it's ALL their favorability and job approval numbers for ALMOST EVERYONE.

    And I just don't buy it.  I don't buy that "likely voters" or actual voters this November are THAT hostile to ALMOST ALL elected officials.

    I think this pattern in PPP's polling perhaps reflects the voter "intensity" house effect that Chuck Todd and some others have hypothesized exists in robopolling.  Maybe a disproportionately large number of angrier voters are more willing to take their polls?

    I don't know, I don't quite see the same pattern in Rasmussen or even SUSA.

    But all the robopollsters have their own consistent quirks that don't make sense to me, that I think are errors in measuring the pulse of the electorate.  It's just that they robopollers all have DIFFERENT hard-to-believe data points, they don't all share the same ones!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen actually OVERSTATES...
    ....favorability, sometimes by large margins... it's their particular quirk.

    [ Parent ]
    Hm
    Ten points isn't really all that much when both candidates are this unknown.  I wonder if someone somewhere isn't thinking about throwing some of those millions Karl Rove has been raising into this race.  If it got closer, it might be worth it even if DioGuardi didn't win just for the panic it would cause.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    They'd have to start right away, time is short......
    It's getting late, if GOP allies want to help, they gotta buy points and get on the air right away.  Gillibrand is close to winning just by running out the clock.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Yep
    I'd say they really have to make up their minds this week if they want to do it.  In some ways, I wonder if this might not be a better target than WA or CA which have tried and tested incumbents.  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    No it's not
    Republicans would be wasting their time dumping a lot of money on this race.

    [ Parent ]
    I invite them to do it
    Cuomo and Schumer winning 60-40 makes it impossible.

    [ Parent ]
    Lack of name recognition works both ways though
    Kirsten has only really started introducing herself to voters these last couple weeks and she has plenty money to define her opponent in a negative light.

    [ Parent ]
    The cross-tabs are, to say the least, amusing
    If DioGuardi really won 19% of Democrats, he'd eek out a victory. Likewise, if Gillibrand really won 23% of Republicans, she'd stage a blowout. Of course, neither of these things will actually happen. (Unless DioGuardi's winning some downstate Democrats and Gillibrand's winning upstate Republicans...I guess this is a possibility, but to the extent of 20% cross-over voting?)

    It wouldn't surprise me if this race actually got closer in the coming weeks...this poll was taken before DioGuardi went on the air with his first ad (which is a very good, positive intro spot, btw). DioGuardi up 1 among Indies makes sense. The cross-over voting, again, does not. DioGuardi's favorables are decent for a Republican here, while Gillibrand's are rather lukewarm. If I were a Republican, I might pump some funds here, instead of Washington or Connecticut.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    How many ads has she had up?
    Only one isn't it? If I were a Republican I wouldn't touch this for anything with Cuomo and Schumer driving turnout. Washington is far more attractive IMO.

    [ Parent ]
    At the time of this polling, she had two ads up
    Her third was released yesterday, I think. All positive spots. Given his rhetoric on the campaign trail, my hunch is DioGuardi's second ad will be a negative one.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    If it was a cheap state
    I'd agree. But this is a very expensive state. Better to spend it in WA and CA which appear to be tightening again.  

    [ Parent ]
    Tightening
    Washington is possible but we need more evidence than Rasmussen. I don't see any evidence CA is tighter. Even Rasmussen showed no change in the margin.

    [ Parent ]
    SUSA and Ras
    Both showed the Sen race looking better than the gov race now. I hope someone else will poll it for confirmation, since SUSA showed Boxer losing 3. I also hope we get another WA poll. Two Ras polls (one Fox, one Ras) showed it a tie again.  

    [ Parent ]
    More of a case of Whitman
    Slipping than Boxer. I'm not arguing with you again about SurveyUSA's polling in California this year.

    [ Parent ]
    I know
    SUSA. But, its all we got. They were consistent with other polling showing a Brown/Boxer surge at the same time.  

    [ Parent ]
    Oh and
    Ispos is also showing it, with Fiorina down by only 4 49-45.  

    [ Parent ]
    No trend with that one
    You can't compare margins across polls like that.

    [ Parent ]
    Consistent with the surge yes
    But from a lower starting point. And I could just as easily say Fiorina is flat in both polls. Be as ever we shall see.

    [ Parent ]
    In less than a month!!!


    [ Parent ]
    That election day is almost here
    Already! You said we shall see, so I was saying we will very soon.  

    [ Parent ]
    New Ohio Congresisnoal polls...
    Boccieri and Renacci  tied in OH-16 (that's a pleasant surprise).  Kilroy getting hammered in OH-18.

    http://www.cleveland.com/open/...


    Kilroy would be getting hammered
    If she carpet-bagged over to OH-18. The fact that she's getting hammered in OH-15 is more depressing.

    22, Democrat, AZ-01
    Peace. Love. Gabby.


    [ Parent ]
    Umm... yeah... I knew it was the 15th....
    Just testin' ya... yeah... that's the ticket!!  ;-)

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Blumenthal up 11
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Or, in Scott Rasmussen language: "Yo, my GOP homies! Stop looking here! You wasting your moneys, dawgs!"

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    Uhh
    The party isn't spending money there any way...

    [ Parent ]
    But the DSCC is
    They pump $500k into CT already & just bought another $1.2 million in ads for Blumenthal (who refuses to self finance his campaign).


    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    They might as well spend it there
    If Feingold doesn't want it. The field is thinning out anyway.

    [ Parent ]
    A good analysis of the Angle ad:
    http://www.salon.com/news/poli...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    When in doubt, pull the dog whistle
    Then again, Angle's ad isn't really dog whistle, it's more of a foghorn.  

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    SC- Gov Blogger sees two internals with a close race
    http://www.fitsnews.com/2010/1...

    Take it with a grain of salt, but I do believe this is a close race, with potential to get more so.

    I also wish someone would poll SC-2 (Joe 'you lie' Wilson vs. Rob Miller).  I think it might be an upset in the making.    


    PA-Sen: Sestak ad ties Toomey to Palin, Santorum
    Note the first comment to the ad
    from a former user here, Ryan_In_Delco.... he's not impressed, but I am.

    My first thought was to wonder if any PA voter remembered Santorum, 4 years out... I'd think so, as he was anything but low profile. It's something I wish more Ds would do with W.

    And the message seems designed to add to Sestak's margins in SE PA.  


    [ Parent ]
    Ryan not impressed
    Why does that not surprise me? Frankly, it is worth a shot because nothing else is working.

    [ Parent ]
    He's under seige
    from Rove's Crossroads billionaires.  He can still pull this out but the window is closing.

    [ Parent ]
    "Former User"
    Sorry if this is off-topic, but why is Ryan_in_Delco a former user?

    I figure I must have missed something, but it's a shame if he's no longer commenting. I thought his analysis was thoughtful and valuable.

    20, GOP, NH-02


    [ Parent ]
    He
    had a fetish for derailing threads with really serious policy discussions.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    ryan got banned?
    Bah, that's what happens when you get a job and can no longer stay caught up with this place.

    [ Parent ]
    Great ad
    I don't know if this has the potential to be as powerful as his destructive "re-elected" ad against Specter, but this is a very good ad. It makes me wonder if Sestak might also have another big comment cooked up to throw in in the last 2 weeks

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    It would
    Take a lot to beat that "re-elected" ad. That is still the best ad of the cycle IMO.  

    [ Parent ]
    Pallone ahead 53-41 in NJ-6
    http://www.northjersey.com/new...

    Closer than I would like, especially considering he won iwth 67% last time.  But he's over 50% so he's ok.  The problem is that the shore county of the district, Monmouth, has turned into nutjob territory.  Christie does best in Mommouth and Ocean counties, and Ocean is what's keeping Jon Runyan in the game in NJ-3.


    If its close
    With Little, Diane Gooch might have been able to win it with her self funding ability.  

    [ Parent ]
    AK-Sen: This e-mail makes me wonder
    http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

    What might happen if Palin pulls her support for Joe Miller?


    This is getting crazy
    I think eventually Miller will have to be the one to back down, at least until November. I wouldn't be surprised if he issues some sort of quasi-apology next week

    I've got a scenario, though: What if Murkowski wins her write-in bid and Sarah is the Republican candidate in 2012? Does Lisa endorse Obama or Palin or stay out of it entirely? If she endorses Obama, that's a HUGE asset to his reelection, probably enough that I would give up the prospect of a Senator McAdams

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    PPP: Cooper still popular in NC
    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    headdesk

    This guy's untouchable. Why the hell didn't he take on Burr?

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


    Well
    Manchin's pretty popular but he's the underdog right now. The climate's shit so even if you're a popular Democrat, its doesn't make you a shoe in.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Probably didn't want to be tied to Obama and Natl Dems
    I can't blame him.  

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder
    If Perdue's approval rating stays where its at, would he run for Gov? How competitive would the race between him and McCrory be?  

    [ Parent ]
    He's untouchable because he didn't take on Burr
    Having your name out of the news is the best thing that can happen to a Democrat this cycle. If he got in the race against Burr, he would have had to run a primary campaign and then a general campaign, and withstand Burr's attacks on him as one of them lib'ruls. Cooper was smart--he's waiting to make his move in a better cycle for NC Democrats.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    he decided against the race
    Before it was clear the national environment would have made running in this race a waste of time, though.  And this seat always flips to Democrats in off-years so back when he was deciding on this race, he still had history on his side.

    [ Parent ]
    NY-20
    I believe it was the fact that Tedisco refused to take a position on the stimulus, not the fact that he opposed it. Also, even if it was more popular then, a lot has changed in the last 18 months, and it has become a lot less popular and is an effective attack.  

    OH-18
    That ad seriously bothers me. I agree that it's race-baiting but also the characters that they used at the end are not even used in China (but rather, Taiwan and Hong Kong). xenophobia fail.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/



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