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DE-AL, PA-10: Carney Leads, Times Two

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 7:58 PM EDT


Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (9/27-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

John Carney (D): 51
Glen Urquhart (R): 36
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.5%)

The open seat in Delaware, graciously left behind by Mike Castle, has always seemed like one of the Dems' two best pickup opportunities... and if this poll and yesterday's PPP poll of LA-02 are to be believed, this one probably takes the lead. Not only does ex-Lt. Gov. John Carney lead by a 56-32 margin in New Castle County, he's also running even in Sussex and Kent Counties (the rural parts of the state, where a GOPer would have to completely dominate in order to win statewide).

Lycoming Coll. (9/26-30, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 43
Tom Marino (R): 40
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5.1%)

It looks less likely that two-term Dem incumbent Chris Carney will be in the Carney Caucus next year, although he's still holding his own fairly well against former US Attorney Tom Marino. On the one hand, he's in an R+8 district and should be especially vulnerable this year, but on the other hand, he's still pretty personally popular (over 50% favorable) and is up against a guy with a boatload of sketchy connections.
Crisitunity :: DE-AL, PA-10: Carney Leads, Times Two
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DE-AL, PA-10: Carney Leads, Times Two | 21 comments
When I saw this tweeted
I was hoping that an evening daily digest was going to start coming out.   Never the less, glad to the the Carney's lead.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Both Carneys doing well...
John Carney is looking more and more like a shoo-in. The DE GOP must be thanked for really f*cking up their own chances this fall!

And for being in such a tough district, Chris Carney is holding up fairly well. His big task now is getting as close to 50% as possible to seal the deal. Are there any third party candidates who could siphon off votes from Tom Marino?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

This isn't "holding up well" at all for Chris Carney, 43 a month out is...
...pretty bad.

What surprises me is that Marino is scandal-plagued, and those are exactly the kinds of Republicans our vulnerable incumbents are beating back successfully.  And from what I can tell, Carney has been hitting Marino hard on those scandals, and they're in the local news.  And still Carney can't get toward 50 and pull away.

I don't write this off because Marino's baggage still could do him in, but it should have hurt him by now.

I note that this poll is sketchy anyway, an amateur production conducted by students from what I read earlier today.  But one or two other polls that have come out in this race the past couple months don't show Carney in much better shape than this one.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
PA-10 is, on paper, a district that a Democrat shouldn't have any shot at holding
Presumably a majority of registered voters are Republicans, and Bush won 60% there in 2004. Heck, McCain won the district by 9 despite losing the state by 10.

Carney came in by defeating a scandal-plagued incumbent, and lucked out by having a strong Dem year for his first re-election bid. Now he's facing a strong Republican tide driven by a double-digit win by Corbett and what's looking like a strong single-digit win by Toomey. They'll probably both win the district by something like 2-1. The only reason Carney isn't DOA is that Marino is such a terrible candidate.

[ Parent ]
Correct
The 10th had Scranton scooped out of it in 2002 in order to keep him from another close call with Pat Casey (yes, relation). As it stands, the 10th is the right half of "the T."
[ Parent ]
Although PA-10 has the "T"
 It is trending more Democratic on the whole. Obama improved by 12 points over Kerry while it was only a 7 point improvment statewide. Although the "T" did not strongly shift, the counties Monroe and Pike along the Delaware River are shifting Democratic with New York and New Jersey retirees. Even Kerry did better than Gore in Monroe even while Bush did better in 2004 in almost every county without a university outside of the Philadelphia area.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
If Carney is to win this year,
he maybe the luckiest Congressman in the nation. His district is likely to incorporate Scranton and Wilkes-Barre by 2012, and the rural areas of PA-10 will be in Kanjorski's.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
probably Barletta's...

[ Parent ]
yeah ...
that's what i meant.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I've never been high on Marino
Sure, I was excited when we got a former US Attorney to run against Carney because we had no one of note in the field at the time. But Marino's lousy fundraising, underwhelming primary win, and ethics questions have kept me from really getting excited about him as someone who could win this seat back. I've never had Carney as one of my 43 most endangered Dems, and I think he only loses if a. There's a 50+ seat wave or b. Democrats give up on Pennsylvania.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Good numbers for PA Carney
I think Paul Kanjorski will actually survive...

The Philly suburbs will be where the bloodbath is.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

No recent good numbers from the 11th
I would be very surprised if Kanjo held on.
[ Parent ]
No doubt.
    But I don't trust Barletta's polls.  His internals had him up in the high single digits in October '08.  Barletta went on to lose by 4.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Sigh.
   We will see.

   If the Philly suburbs are such a disaster, then why did Toomey air an anti-Obama ad in every Pennsylvania media market save the Philly one (which includes the suburbs)?

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
So as not to activate the African American community in Philly
Unengaged and not voting. Suddenly go after the guy they admire most, they light up and show up.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
They're airing in the Phila market
Saw a bunch of them the other night.  First Toomey blasting "poor Joe Sestak," then Rove's group just plain bashing him.
[ Parent ]
But they don't mention Obama.
Not the ones I've seen, anyway.
[ Parent ]
Sestak should "respond" in a way that quotes
the ad.  
[ Parent ]
He can't.
He's not trying to run "with" Obama.
[ Parent ]
Yay
Another Dem pick-up that is likely.  lol
All Polls are Equal, but some polls are more equal than others
There have been three or four obscure local or partisan polls showing a tight race or as it did earlier this summer, Marino with a lead.

Two weeks ago -- Carney released his own internal poll showing him with an 8 point lead -- and a 15 point lead among respondents who've voted in four of the past six elections.

I'd put my money on the professional poll.

While this is a tough district for a D, Carney has run a strong race and is personally popular with local GOP officials and the public at large.  While you never say never, running a good campaign counts -- and Carney has run a good campaign.

DE-AL, PA-10: Carney Leads, Times Two | 21 comments

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