DE-AL, PA-10: Carney Leads, Times Two

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (9/27-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

John Carney (D): 51

Glen Urquhart (R): 36

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The open seat in Delaware, graciously left behind by Mike Castle, has always seemed like one of the Dems’ two best pickup opportunities… and if this poll and yesterday’s PPP poll of LA-02 are to be believed, this one probably takes the lead. Not only does ex-Lt. Gov. John Carney lead by a 56-32 margin in New Castle County, he’s also running even in Sussex and Kent Counties (the rural parts of the state, where a GOPer would have to completely dominate in order to win statewide).

Lycoming Coll. (9/26-30, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 43

Tom Marino (R): 40

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5.1%)

It looks less likely that two-term Dem incumbent Chris Carney will be in the Carney Caucus next year, although he’s still holding his own fairly well against former US Attorney Tom Marino. On the one hand, he’s in an R+8 district and should be especially vulnerable this year, but on the other hand, he’s still pretty personally popular (over 50% favorable) and is up against a guy with a boatload of sketchy connections.

21 thoughts on “DE-AL, PA-10: Carney Leads, Times Two”

  1. John Carney is looking more and more like a shoo-in. The DE GOP must be thanked for really f*cking up their own chances this fall!

    And for being in such a tough district, Chris Carney is holding up fairly well. His big task now is getting as close to 50% as possible to seal the deal. Are there any third party candidates who could siphon off votes from Tom Marino?

  2. There have been three or four obscure local or partisan polls showing a tight race or as it did earlier this summer, Marino with a lead.

    Two weeks ago — Carney released his own internal poll showing him with an 8 point lead — and a 15 point lead among respondents who’ve voted in four of the past six elections.

    I’d put my money on the professional poll.

    While this is a tough district for a D, Carney has run a strong race and is personally popular with local GOP officials and the public at large.  While you never say never, running a good campaign counts — and Carney has run a good campaign.

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