Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/2-3, likely voters, no trend lines):
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 48
Charles Djou (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±3.9%)
It looks like Charles Djou and Colleen Hanabusa are in a game of jump ball here, which is a better result than I had been expecting for Team Blue here. If turnout were at 2008 levels, as Jed L. says, Hanabusa would be leading by 54-40.
Bonus finding: In the gubernatorial race portion of this poll, Duke Aiona and Neil Abercrombie are tied at 48-48. Considering this is Abercrombie’s old district, this could mean that the Governor’s race is a lot closer than previous polls indicated.
same polling issues like there were in the special election?
It’s over. There’s a major hidden vote, mostly from native hawaiians/asians that the pollsters simply don’t pick up on. Polling had Hanabusa in third the whole way in the special and then she came back strong on election day and, without Case to screw it up, would’ve crushed Djou to pieces.
I think Hanabusa wins this one much easier than anybody anticipates, 8-12 points probably.
Non-Hispanic white: 18.6% (PPP has it at 32%)
Asian: 51.8% (PPP has it at 45%)
*Japanese: 19.1%
*Filipino: 15.8%
*Chinese: 7.1%
*everyone else: 9.8%
I’m a big fan of PPP, they’re extremely transparent and (usually) accurate, but as others have said, I’m not ready to buy this poll (particularly for the gubernatorial race).
I’m hardly an expert on Hawaii politics, but my best guess on a voter turn-out model looks something like…
Democrat – 46%
Independent – 30%
GOP – 24%
In other words, one of the most Democrat-friendly in the nation, especially given that miniscule # for the Republicans. I think PPP is oversampling Independents.
Abercrombie – 86/44/6 = 54%
Aiona – 14/56/94 = 46%
I’d personally peg this at Lean D. Anything can happen this year, and I think the HI-01 race is a bonifide dead heat (though I think Hanabusa wins), but the electorate is almost as bad for the GOP here as Alaska is for the Democrats.
any guesses on how turnout gets hindered by the matter of half the voting day taking place with polls closed in other parts of the country?
Unrelated fun note: to my knowledge, this is the first November election to be held under daylights savings time. At least anybody having to do last-minute GOTV will have some better luck at having the sun out
I have serious issues with this poll, as with many pollsters that try their hand at Hawaii (which continues to be an astoundingly difficult state to poll accurately).
Hanabusa should win easily. Abercrombie will also win easily though despite what you may think, he will probably do a couple points better in the other district, HI-02. Aiona will get destroyed on the other islands.
Also, that PPP poll finds Inouye leading Cavasso by 66-28. This sounds reasonable until you remember that Cavasso is a little-known perennial candidate and six years ago Inouye demolished Cavasso 76-21%.
Combine that all with the fact that their sample only voted 56% for Obama and I’m inclined to view the poll as somewhat of a worst-case scenario for Dems. Democratic turnout may be down elsewhere in the country but I’m expecting good performance here due to the excitement behind retaking the governor’s mansion.
…. but it is worth repeating here.
Colleen Hanabusa received 85,732 votes in this years primary (The other Dem in the race received 22,874 votes). In 2006 there were 162,794 total votes cast in CD1 during the General Election. Hanabusa’s vote total in the primary is 52.6% of the 2006 general vote total. The total Dem vote in the 2010 primary was 66.7% of the total vote in the 2006 general. Unless there is a spike in general election turnout or the voters who voted Dem in the primary sit out the general she is in good shape.
is bogus, is that the Democratic primary results for the General election discredit it; the total number of votes case in the Democratic primary amounted to 62% of the total number of votes cast in the 2006 GENERAL Election, Hanabusa’s total of votes alone put her at 48% of the 2006 General Election. This sample is ridiculously favorable to Republicans.