SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/26-28, likely voters, 8/31-9/2 in parentheses):
Rick Larsen (D-inc): 50 (46)
John Koster (R): 47 (50)
Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/27-29, likely voters, 8/31-9/2 in parentheses:
Suzan DelBene (D): 45 (41)
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 52 (54)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
SurveyUSA looks at the 2nd and 8th again (where one month ago, shortly post-primary, they found Rick Larsen losing narrowly to GOP challenger John Koster and Dave Reichert with a big lead over Dem challenger Suzan DelBene. This time, the results are considerably better, with 6-7 points worth of movement to the Dems in both races: Larsen now leads (only by 3 points, but hitting the 50% mark), while more surprisingly, DelBene is probably out of reach ultimately but has pulled within single digits of Reichert -- who is avoiding debates, isn't getting his usual cover from the Seattle Times, and generally seems to be trying to run out the clock on this race.
It wouldn't be a SurveyUSA poll of Washington without a huge pile of millennial conservatives, and in the 2nd, the 18-34 year olds are breaking 59-37 for Koster (while Larsen leads 55-43 among the 65+ set, up from only a 2-pt lead in that demographic last time, which seems to be primarily responsible for the flip in positions). In the 8th, the age crosstabs aren't that weird; instead, DelBene is making huge inroads among self-described moderates (turning a 4-pt deficit last time into a 57-40 lead now), and has also pulled into a lead among women. |
