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SSP Daily Digest: 10/4 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 8:00 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: Scott McAdams reports raising $650K since the August primary, saying over half his donations came from Alaskans and some 90% were $200 or less. The DSCC also finally registered its first public interest in the race, sending McAdams a $42,000 contribution, the maximum allowable direct donation. McAdams described this as the DS's "first" check to him, suggesting more help might be on the way - but bear in mind that $42K was exactly what the NRSC gave Christine O'Donnell.
  • IN-Sen: Aaron Blake tweets that the DSCC appears to be up on the air with a "small ad buy... in the South Bend market." SSP hoosiers in that corner of the state, let us know if you see anything.
  • NV-Sen: Jon Ralston obtained a 38-minute tape of an apparently private meeting between Sharron Angle and Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, wherein Angle (among other things) pleads with Ashjian to drop out lest he cost her the election. Ralston has links to the full audio, and also posts some transcribed excerpts. The question remains: Why the hell did Angle tape this meeting - and how did it get released publicly?
  • AL-Gov: Robert Bentley, the GOP gubernatorial nominee, just told Mitt Romney to take a hike. Romney endorsed a bunch of Alabama Republicans (obviously as part of his pre-campaign ass-kissing), but Bentley declined the singular honor. Not surprised, given that you can find something about Willard Mitt which probably makes his backing unwelcome in every state in the union.
  • SC-Gov (PDF): So there's a poll out by a firm I've never heard of, Cranston & Associates, purporting to show Republican Nikki Haley up just 45-41 over Dem Vincent Sheheen. There are more than a few problem with this poll, though - click a link and check out the responses to their questions. It's apparently an RV poll, but 100% of respondents say they're going to vote. The male-female split is twice what it was in 2008, and the African American percentage is equal to 2008. In other words, this sample is waaay too friendly.
  • CA-03: I can't summarize this charming bit of hypocrisy better than Torey Van Oot of the Sacramento Bee, whose lede reads: "Rep. Dan Lungren likened the federal stimulus plan to a "spending spree which will add to a growing mountain of debt," but he helped secure $30 million from the program for a local company whose leaders later contributed to his campaign." Click the link for the full details.
  • CA-47: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to do a rally for Loretta Sanchez (a Hillary supporter, natch) on Oct. 15th. Recall that Joe Biden was in town last month to support Sanchez, who needs all the help she can get these days. After telling a radio host that "The Vietnamese and the Republicans are, with an intensity, (trying) to take this seat" and that her opponent Van Tran is "is very anti-immigrant and very anti-Hispanic," Sanchez came under intense fire and offered a bullshit "I'm sorry if you misunderstood me" non-apology. This one is not going well.
  • DE-AL: Republican Glen Urquhart is touting a Wilson Research Strategies poll (n=300) which supposedly has him just three points back of Dem John Carney, 45-42.
  • MA-04: Republican newcomer Sean Bielat, running against Rep. Barney Frank, says he raised $400K in September alone (and has the same amount on hand), after raising just $230K through August 25th. Frank has $1 million on hand. Even though Obama, Kerry, and Gore all won about 65% here, Scott Brown narrowly won this district, 50-49.
  • MN-06: Jebus - Michele Bachmann says she raised over $3.4 million in the third quarter alone. $3.4 million would be a lot for an entire cycle, let alone just one quarter. Put another way: That's probably 3 to 4 times what Lee Fisher raised last quarter.
  • PA-10: Given that things like "competence" and "judgment" were not on the list of criteria Karl Rove used when hiring US Attorneys, it's no surprise to hear that another legal impropriety has cropped up in connection with Tom Marino. During his days as Lycoming County D.A., Marino sought to get a friend's drug conviction expunged - and when one local judge refused to do so, he asked another, who granted the expungement, but then reversed himself upon learning what happened with the first judge. Pretty scuzzy - and why was Marino, who seems to have a history of wanting to do favors for unsavory characters, even seeking the expungement in the first place? The Luzerne County Citizens' Voice also tantalizes us with some other unexplored alleged Marino misbehavior "including claims he hired law enforcement colleagues to serve as an "entourage" and would go days at a time without going to the office."
  • Meanwhile, the Allentown Morning Call confirms what I've always assumed to be the case, that Marino resigned as US Attorney while he was under investigation in the Louis DeNaples matter (see PA-10 tags), which had the effect of halting the inquiry. Reminds me of Nathan Deal bailing on Congress to stop his ethics investigation.

  • TN-08: Uh-oh - time to get Steve Fincher on "Better Know a District." The Republican agribusiness kingpin didn't realize that the 8th CD includes parts of a small little town you might have heard of once... you know, Memphis, Tennessee. While declaring his ignorance, Fincher also informed the public that he wouldn't debate his opponent, Dem Roy Herron, nor would he release his tax returns (Herron has). Herron's also raised some questions about Fincher's personal financial disclosures, noting that they include zero liabilities - even though Fincher obtained a $250K bank loan that he in turn loaned to his campaign.
  • SSP TV:

    • AL-02: Bobby Bright runs through a litany of numbers which he says define him - including voting with John Boehner 80% of the time
    • AZ-03: In his first ad, Dem John Hulburd strikes out at Ben Quayle for his fucked-up moral compass
    • IA-01: Republican Ben Lange has his first ad up, a biographical spot
    • LA-02: Cedric Richmond features President Obama speaking directly to the camera (and making lots of hand gestures that look like someone speaking very broken sign language)

    Independent Expenditures:

    • NRCC: $5.3 million worth of NRCC spending on too many races to count
    • SC-05: "Citizens for a Working America" spends $250K against Dem Rep. John Spratt
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/4 (Morning Edition)
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    House I.E.'s
    Here is a week-by-week rundown of the races in which the parties have made I.E.'s.  All of the I.E.'s have been renewed from week to week, so I am listing each race only under the week in which I.E.'s began.

    DCCC

    9/5 MI-01, WI-07

    9/12 MI-07, PA-03

    9/19 AL-02, HI-01, IA-03, IL-14, MS-01, NC-08, NY-24, OH-13, OH-16, VA-02

    9/26 AR-01, AZ-05, CA-11, FL-25, GA-02, IL-10, IL-17, MA-10, MD-01, MO-04, PA-11, SC-05, VA-11, WA-03, WV-01

    NRCC

    9/5 KY-06, IN-02

    9/12 AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14, MI-01, MI-07, MS-01, NC-07, NJ-03, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-11, TN-08, TX-17, VA-05, VA-09, WI-07

    9/19 GA-08, IN-09, MO-04, ND-AL, NV-03, NY-20, SC-05, WA-03

    9/26 AR-01, AZ-05, FL-08, FL-24, IN-08, MD-01, NM-01, NY-24, OH-16, OR-05, PA-10, SD-AL, WI-08, WV-01

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    NV-Sen
    Apparently it wasn't Angle who recorded the meeting, but Ashijan - and he leaked it out of spite:

    "Ashjian, who confirmed the authenticity of the tape to CNN Sunday night, said he had decided to record the session in case there were misrepresentations in the press. He decided to leak it after he got upset with some of the initial portrayals of the meeting and an earlier phone conversation with a lawyer for Angle, which he said was condescending to him."

    http://edition.cnn.com/2010/PO...

    Strange story.

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


    This could help Angle
    Angle may get sympathy points if Ashjian betrayed her trust.  Also, since this is an anti-establishment year, her bashing of the Republican establishment could go well.

    [ Parent ]
    Nah, this isn't going to help her, this isn't anything voters care about......
    No one will vote for her because some minor candidate they never heard of running as a "Tea Party" nominee taped their conversation.  If Reid or other Democrats were involved, it would hurt us, but this kind of wingnut-on-wingnut violence will draw just shrugs from the electorate.

    And bashing the Republican establishment doesn't help her, she IS the Republican nominee.  And she's thoroughly disliked.

    This is just entertaining cat fud, but nothing voters care about.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    No, it won't...
    Because Ashjian just exposed Angle as everything she claims NOT to be. She bashes "Let's Make a Deal Harry", but she turns around and tries to make a deal to get Ashjian off the ballot? She bashes "back door deals", and yet here she is making a back door deal? She's a hypocrite!

    This won't do anything with her base, as they'll vote for a circus elephant over Harry Reid, but it may very well hurt her among those few undecided voters left, as it confirms their doubts about Angle's character.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    If there was a rec button
    It would have been clicked by now.  

    NY-29

    [ Parent ]
    perfectly said!
    I was trying to put my finger on why this seems so unsavory and you laid it out perfectly

    [ Parent ]
    Could he be in more legal trouble now?
    Isnt it illegal to tape a private conversation without the other person knowing?  

    [ Parent ]
    Looks like Nevada does require consent of all parties.
    Surprised it hasn't been raised as an issue yet.

    http://www.rcfp.org/taping/sta...

    Consent of all parties is required to tape a conversation in Nevada. Intercepting or delaying a telephone conversation is a misdemeanor. Nev. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 707.900. However, if the interception is made with the prior consent of one of the parties to the communication and an emergency situation exists in which it is impractical to gain a court order before intercepting the communication, an exception may be made. § 200.620. This exception applies mostly to law enforcement officers who proceed without a warrant. See Nev. Rev. Stat. Ann § 179.410, et seq; Koza v. State, 100 Nev. 245, 252-253 (Nev. 1984).

    In December 1998, the state's highest court stated in a 3-2 decision that the state wiretapping statutes require an individual to obtain the consent of all parties before taping a telephone conversation, and thus, that an individual who tapes his own telephone calls without the consent of all participants unlawfully "intercepts" those calls. Lane v. Allstate Ins. Co., 969 P.2d 938, 941 (Nev. 1998).

    In addition, it is a crime to intrude upon the privacy of another by surreptitiously listening to, recording, or disclosing any conversation gained by means of electronic or mechanical device, unless authorized to do so by one of the parties of the conversation. Nev. Rev. Stat. Ann § 200.630, .650.

    Violations of the statute can be punishable by $1,000 or $100 per day, whichever is greater, punitive damages for violations of privacy, and costs reasonably incurred in bringing the action to court. Nev. Rev. Stat. Ann § 200.690.



    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    But there's a loophole
    From Jon Ralston:
     Getting ?s about whether Ashjian's taping of meeting w/Angle was legal. It was. NV law only prohibits taping by phone w/o consent. #teatape  


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    so not only did he get Angle in trouble
    But also himself?  Two birds with one stone with one of the birds throwing the stone for us.  Beautiful.

    [ Parent ]
    NM 1 and NM 2 polls
    Heinrich by 6, Pearce by 1.  Identical to the PPP poll.

    http://newmexicoindependent.co...


    Teague
    That is pretty decent news actually if Pearce is only up by 1 in the second straight poll. Regardless I think that the race is going to be very close but with Pearce's base already "fired up and ready to go vote" any moderate uptick in energy from team blue should be able to put Teague over the top. In that district (where I grew up) those undecided voters who vote at the last minute will be heavily Hispanic voters who should break about 65-35 for Teague. Getting them out to the polls will be Teague's challenge. The PPP poll showed that Teague was winning about 20% of McCain voters, which is about what his crossover total needs to be in order for him to win.

    The more I talk to people the more that Pearce has rubbed people the wrong way with his failed Senate run and they are feeling like Plan B due to this. Still this is a fairly conservative district  with little history of having Democratic Congressional representation so it won't be an easy climb for Teague. This is about as much of a toss-up as you can get as both candidates are very well known, both are from the same town (ironically where Diane Denish is also from) and both are multi-millionaire oil industry business owners. Their voting patterns are obviously different though.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    [ Parent ]
    Another promising tea leaf: NYT story indicates House flip ain't close to done yet......
    This piece has some key info not common to these mainstream political news stories.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10...

    The key graf to me, with key text boldfaced by me:

    By now, Republicans had hoped to put away a first layer of Democrats and set their sights on a second tier of incumbents. But the fight for control of Congress is more fluid than it seemed at Labor Day, with Democrats mounting strong resistance in some parts of the country as they try to hold off a potential Republican wave in November.

                          * * * * * *

    Yet even as spending from outside groups is threatening to swamp many Democratic candidates, Republican strategists estimated that only half of the 39 seats they need to win control of the House were definitively in hand.

    Many Democratic incumbents remain vulnerable, but their positions have stabilized in the last month as they have begun running negative advertisements to raise questions about their Republican challengers and shift the focus of voters away from contentious national issues like health care, bailouts and President Obama's performance.

    This just shows how steep a climb 39 seats really is, and that steepness is the one thing we still have going for us.

    We still have a real shot to hold the House.  It's no pipedream.  The key question is whether enough of our incumbents can hold their poll positions through a big onslaught of attacks through October.

    I'm still not giving up hope.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    I never did...
    This is what I've kept telling everyone. Get out of The Beltway, look beyond Charlie Cook's "feelings" and Nate Silver's numbers, and see what's actually happening. Reality is much more complex than the pundits would have us believe.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Nate Silver's Numbers
    I have great respect for Nate Silver's numbers. The problem is that many competitive House races have not been polled, not been polled recently, or have only one or two polls to go on. So while his model may still give some kind of probability of one side or the other controlling the House, I think even he may say that there may not be a whole lot of certainty regarding the number his model spits out. (The Senate numbers may be more reliable since there's a lot more polling data on those races.)

    But I don't want to just whistle past the graveyard. Dems have a lot of work to do.


    [ Parent ]
    The top of the ticket matters to.
    Why I suspect most of the Democratic losses will come out the midwest just cause from Pennslyvania out to Iowa we have a crappy top ticket (minus Dayton in Minnesota). I think will do better in the South becuase we have strong candidates in FL, GA, SC, and even if they don't win (though despite recent polls i'm almost certain Sink will win) they will outperform democratic presidential numbers and help save many of the house seats in the region.

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    [ Parent ]
    id be careful in that
    Pundits are paid to overthink everything.  The MSM outlets many of them work for, however, are the ones simplifying everything.  I'm no tea-bagger, ill trust the Beltway elitists who have degrees in this.  (Although, you'd be surprised how few of these pundits have PhDs.)

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    I have to agree with you. While we are definitely going to lose a lot of seats to the extent that we can get an reasonable uptick in voter energy on our side our candidates will grow. Also highlighted flaws in opponents does wonders in making this election a choice. For example, not long ago everyone had Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin as DOA. Now? Revelations of her opponents driving record have made her a heavily favorite to survive. With you being in VA have you seen the latest DCCC that they are running against Scott Ringell? I think it's pretty solid as they clearly highlight that while he is anti-stimulus he is hypocritical for taking all of that money in cash-for-clunkers. People know what that program was and reminding them that it was part of the stimulus and this guy is "strongly opposed to it yet took $400K of money from it" is pretty strong. 39 seats is a lot and they are going to have win some in blue areas too as a lot of red district incumbents have solidified their ground fairly well (SSH, Minnick, Bright, Boucher, etc.).  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    If the election were held today
    I think we'd lose closer to 50 seats. but

    Races typically tighten in the final month as voters on both sides become more engaged, and the political climate is no more favorable for Democrats than it has been all year, with no substantial signs of improvement in the economy or the outlook for unemployment.

    In '94, the contract on America widened that gap. It isn't happening this year with the "pledge on America". We've dodged that bullet.

    But there are always risks in October. A scandal (e.g. Rangel), some unknown foreign issue (e.g. some public defeat in Afghanistan), or some mistake by President Obama could freeze that near-50 seat loss in place.

    Assuming the 19 seats suggested in the article are almost definitively lost, I think about 40 more are at serious risk.

    If we can save 21 of those seats, we retain the majority in the House.

    (which seats are they? heck if I know for sure)


    [ Parent ]
    I completely disagree on number lost if election held today......
    If the GOP has only 20 or so locked down, they wouldn't take 50 net today.  I bet they'd hover around 40, maybe less.

    Frankly I would have guessed internal information would have pegged the GOP lock-down at 30 or so by now.

    That everything over 20 is still in doubt puts us in a good position now but a potentially worse position later.  "Polls tighten" is offset by Republicans and allies advertising more heavily in October than in September.  Indeed, we dominated the airwaves in September in House races, which is why we're in better shape than we feared right now.

    I think we'd hold the House, perhaps by a decent margin, were the election today, but it's more at risk a month from now.

    We'll see...I just hope our incumbents can keep hanging on and get Democrats out to vote.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I have it as a net 41 right now
    But so many could break either way that it could be a dozen less or, at least, a dozen more.

    [ Parent ]
    Part of it is the expectations game
    The MSM have almost built in such an expectation that Rs will take the House. I'm surprised that Rs haven't dialed that back already.

    I think this article is part of what they've fed to the NYT to try to change the narrative, to make a 30 seat gain sound like some remarkable victory.

    My wild (expletive deleted) guess is that "19" is the seats they have as solid R (probably actually 22 or 23, minus their probable 4 losses).

    (coincidentally, Nate has 19 seats net at "likely takeover" and 20 net as "lean takeover", before the 17D/2R tossups, aka "even chance of takeover")

    If people like Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato, etc. change their projections based on the same info described in the article, then I'd have to reassess.  


    [ Parent ]
    Good thought that this might be GOP psy-ops at work......
    I hadn't thought of that, that they might have fed the NYT some spin that creates doubt for purposes of dialing back expectations.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Actually,

    retroactive examination has shown that the average Republican voter in '94 knew nothing about the Contract, nor did any average Democrat.  Gingrich & Co. claimed that the win had been due to the Contract after the election, when they were trying to expand the mandate they had received to fit their desires.

    What did happen in '94 is that the generic ballot went crazy, to a peak of 60something R/32 D in April or May 1994.  Everyone hated what Congress was doing/not doing under conservative D control of the agenda.  They were so done.

    Actual Republican turnout turned out to be normal level for midterms.  About 10-15% of normal Democratic turnout for midterms stayed home.


    [ Parent ]
    That Bright ad is
    great.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    I
    liked it too. It'll drive the purity trolls like Jane Hampsher crazy, but that ad proves Bobby Bright is an independent leader who listens to his constituents. I may of disagreed with some of his votes, but in the end he's the type of person that can hold this seat for team blue.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    I can't wait for the Lieberman numbers from PPP this week as well.
    I wonder if Chris Murphy or Jim HImes will be the one running. Its kind of too bad that Murphy didn't run this time because Blumenthal is only two years younger than Dodd.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    well now you've got Lamont
    And Susan Byceweiz seems like she is clearly gunning for Senate.  Dropping out of a gubernatorial race that showed you winning + trying to drop down to a lower race + this occurring at the exact same time the heir to defeating Liebmeran leaves that job open to defend Dodd's seat = Senate plans.

    [ Parent ]
    IA-01: that Ben Lange ad is a "biographical" spot???......
    Boy, I wouldn't call it that.

    I'd call it vapid.

    He talks and talks and yet doesn't say anything at all.  He explicitly rejects party labels, I suppose he realizes he needs a lot of crossover votes to have a shot.  But he goes further and makes a point of not saying anything that liberals might not like!

    This is the kind of ad I'd expect a Republican to air in a STRONGLY DEMOCRATIC year.

    Tells you something about this district.  And hard to believe the very conservative Jim Nussle represented it not that long ago.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Interesting poll from Scotty
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    He has support for HCR repeal among LV's at 50-44 in favor.  This is a huge swing towards the anti-repeal position.  The margin in favor of repeal has been sky high from day one, including 61-33(!) just two weeks ago.  It has easily been a double digit spread all year.  

    It could be that a lot of people have just re-thought HCR over the past two weeks, all at once.  More likely though, and why I find it interesting, is that it may reflect a drastic shift in Rasmussen's turnout assumptions.  Or it could be an outlier.  I'll be on the lookout for corroborating evidence though.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    The problem with his "repeal" polling is two-fold......
    First, he ALWAYS has repeal polling extremely well when all other pollsters consistently show most people OPPOSE repeal.  Rassy's results are just one more data point that illustrate their sampling problems.

    Second, Rassy's repeal polling is extremely volatile without reason.  It will go from the 60s to the low 50s and back up to the 60s in a month's time, with noting happening in the news or in people's lives to cause THAT much volatility.  That, too, illustrates unreliable sampling.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    It's consistent with a ultra-tight voter screen
    If the assumption that Rasmussen only polls ultra-engaged voters is correct, then the numbers of Ds who pass the voter screen should rise closer to the election.

    [ Parent ]
    was it last week
    or the week before when a round of HCR related items kicked in?  You can chalk up all statistical movement to that.

    Secondly, why the fuck is he polling HCR?  That topic is soooooo last season.


    [ Parent ]
    Yup, even Scotty can't engineer a poll to stop the trend. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Rubio up 20 in Miami/Dade college poll
    46%, with Crist at 27% and Meek at 26%.

    Don't know track record of pollster.

    http://newsblaze.com/story/201...


    Those numbers are credible on their face. They confirm two trends......
    First, Rubio rising.

    Second, Meek gradually catching up with Crist.

    We've seen those trends earlier, and it's plausible that they're continuing.  The latter trend especially should take off more since that attack ad started airing.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Im officially resigning all hope for this race
    I never thought Crist could win but I always kept my tiny glimmer of hope.  On to another state now I guess.

    [ Parent ]
    PPP voting on next poll up
    I cludes wisconsin, west Virginia, new Hampshire, California, Washington, Florida and nevada.

    I suggest New Hampshire!  If we pick up any seats, it's going to be NH-sen.  Plus, I'd like to see how badly Lynch is beating his GOP opponent.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    I was torn between WV-Sen and FL-Gov......
    I went with WV-Sen, it's just more important to all of us outside Florida than FL-Gov.

    But those are the 2 with the greatest apparent recent movement.  The others either haven't changed much or have been polled enough that we know the story.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I wish they would poll the redistricting amendment
    that is more important then both combined to the nation.

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    [ Parent ]
    I voted WV
    Want to get confirmation. I think Raese's lead may have grown.  

    [ Parent ]
    I went with Nevada
    We had seen a whole lot of polls with the race tied before the POS poll that had Reid up 5, so I wanted to see what PPP came up with. Plus, the governor's race may or may not be getting interesting and maybe they'll poll NV-03.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Washington
    But there are arguments for all those. I just wish they had the funds to do them all. Maybe after their success this year they will have more resources next cycle. Jensen's Tweets are still tiresome though.

    [ Parent ]
    California
    Because I'm obsessed.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    I live in Bloomington
    Which is admittedly on the opposite side of the state from South Bend. Anyways, I haven't seen Ellsworth on the air for weeks. Coats is on all the time (and all of his ads have grainy, gray footage of Obama).

    Maybe Ellsworth is saving up for a last-minute blitz. He'd better start soon, since early voting starts today in Indiana.


    IN-Sen is over. Coats is in. I never bought the hype that...
    ...Ellsworth could make a race of it that was still being peddled in August.  I believed it in the spring and early summer, but by August I figured it was a done deal.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Well, yes
    It's academic. We all know that Coats is going to win. It's been pretty obvious since sometime this summer.

    I'm still not sure what happened. Brad Ellsworth is a good candidate and I felt in January that he would win. I think he miscalculated exactly how deep voter anger is regarding healthcare when he cast that vote. Most Democrats assumed that support for healthcare reform would've strengthened by now as the more popular provisions kicked in, but if anything it's gotten a little weaker.


    [ Parent ]
    No it's not health care reform, and no support has not gotten weaker......
    HCR support has ticked up slightly but more importantly has simply receded as an issue to swing voters.

    And HCR wasn't Ellsworth's problem.  He'd be no better off now had he voted "no."  His problem simply is being a Democrat in a conservative state in an anti-Democratic year.  He also appears to have a lot less money than Coats, so that exacerbates the problem.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    HCR
    I think you're right in that whether a vulnerable Democrat voted for HCR or not is becoming less and less of an issue (unless they were among the half-dozen that flipped their vote), but HCR remains a major reason why so many Democrats are in trouble. Despite the fact that the policy itself is now seeing better approval numbers, the eight-month period during which the bill was written and argued over coincided with the Republican surge in the polls, and the odyssey that led up to the passage of the bill left a lot of voters with a bad taste in their mouths that they haven't gotten over yet. As a Republican, I can tell you firsthand--our candidates would not be doing nearly as well if Democrats had never moved to reform healthcare because it would have stripped them of one of their main talking points.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Partly
    But I still think the major cause of the slide was the economy and the perception Democrats were concentrating on HCR at the expense of jobs.

    [ Parent ]
    Cum hoc ergo propter hoc!
    Correlation does not imply causation, and in fact Democratic numbers are almost certainly tied to the bad economy, while the whole HCR thing was an exhausting ordeal, I doubt the Democrats would be in any worse shape today had they not tried to get a health care bill passed.

    (Side note: I knew minoring in Philosophy would pay off some day :D)

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    The enthusiasm gap could be worse
    Had they done nothing.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh it absolutely WOULD be worse. We benefited for sure by...
    ...finishing what we started on HCR.

    One can argue that not going down this road at all, and picking different priorities, would have been even better for us electorally.  But that's questionable in my view because I don't think there's anything Obama and Congressional Dems could have done on the economy to make it any better than it is right now; the cake was baked on unemployment and slow job growth before Obama was sworn in.  That being the case, pursuing any other major initiative would have involved the same problems as health care, and we might be talking now about a global warming law that's unpopular but passed, or an immigration reform law that's unpopular but passed.

    It's worth emphasizing that soon after Obama took office, there were sporadic news reports that this or that Administration advisor or set of advisors or agency or group of experts or maybe even the Federal Reserve Board were warning unemployment could last a loooooong time, that job growth would be slooooooow.  I remember very well those reports, and at the time placed my political bet (no real money, thankfully) on those depressing forecasts being wrong, on the recession ending fast enough for people to feel better come fall 2010.  But it turns out those forecasts were right.  The problem was they COULD have been wrong, and if Obama was more dour in his own message to the country about what to expect, he might have simply created a self-fulfilling prophecy of a slow and weak recovery, and we'd be talking about THAT right now as a big mistake he made.

    All this is to say that while I hate to sound fatalist, this bad midterm might have been set in stone from the start.  We NEEDED the economy to turn around faster than it's turning around.  And absent that, we needed to get done as much as we could for the good of the country while we still had our short-term supermajorities.  The 111th Congress did that, and it IS helping us improve the turnout model from what it would have been otherwise.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    It was worth doing whatever the result


    [ Parent ]
    Agree completely. History will vindicate Obama and this Congress. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    In my opinon, no, he's right
    Health care reform completely fucked us.  We weren't even talking about the economy as all the jobs were lost, we were talking about health care reform.  It really seemed like we passed that bill and all of a sudden, the country awoke and we were in giant economic mess again.  However, liberals should take solace because this sure as fucking shit wasn't the liberals who caused the whole thing to suck for us.  It was conservatives.  Just let us vote on the god damn bill and let's not waste 8 months of time when we could have been working on the economy.

    Mitch McConnell will go down as the most effective GOP Senate leader ever I believe.  He screwed the Democrats out of way too many victories we needed to look effective during a time where we desperately needed to look so.  This has nothing to do with the policies we pushed forward but rather the rarity of them passing.  The Democrats got the hot potato and the GOP ensured we held on to it for dear life due filibusters.

    Mitch McConnell, best ever.  Mark my words.  (If anything, I'll be the one writing tons of books about it and ensuring it's so.  ;)  )


    [ Parent ]
    He had it wrong
    It was the DCCC that made the buy: http://twitter.com/FixAaron/st...

    [ Parent ]
    Well Dan Coats wont
    get very much traction in Bloomington. Also Todd Young is losing ground (has anyone seen his always empty office in Bloomington?). Baron Hill will probably win again. The remnants of President Obama's campaign, which is now Organizing for America, has major grassroot operations through out the state, including Bloomington. If anything they can turn out the vote, despite our strict disenfranchisement voter ID laws. Brad Ellsworth will probably end up a lot closer than anyone thought.  

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    Politico article
    makes it seem like IL-Sen is becoming safer for Democrats. I haven't seen this supported in public polling, which basically seems to show a tie race.

    Could this be the case of "super-secret Charlie-Cook-style insider polling"? Or just sloppy reporting? The article seems well-researched and supported by lots of sources, so I'm not sure what to make of it.

    Democratic-held Senate seats in Washington, California and Illinois that party strategists once fretted about appear to be returning to blue-state form - and, along with Delaware, the result may be to ultimately ensure that Republicans don't seize control of the 10 seats necessary to win back the Senate.

    And later:

    In the Senate, incumbent Sens. Barbara Boxer of California and Patty Murray of Washington have staked out leads, and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, the GOP Senate nominee in Illinois, appears to be slipping.

    Here's the link:
    http://www.politico.com/news/s...


    And some House-related coverage:
    Both have released positive internal poll figures in recent days: Chris Carney, a second-term Democrat from northeastern Pennsylvania, has a new survey showing him leading GOP challenger Tom Marino by 8 points. South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin leads Republican opponent Kristi Noem by 13 points.

    Carney has hammered Marino relentlessly over allegations that as a former U.S. attorney he wrote a recommendation for a Pennsylvania businessman who had been under investigation by Marino's own office and whom he later went on to work for. Carney has begun airing TV ads asking, "What's Marino hiding?" and the story has dominated local news coverage of the race.

    Herseth Sandlin, for her part, has benefited from reports that over the past 20 years Noem has compiled more than 20 speeding tickets. The South Dakota Democratic Party has even created a website titled  "Kristi Above the Law," featuring an Old West-style "Wanted" photo of Noem.

    Other Democratic veterans from red districts, such as Reps. Nick Rahall (W.Va.), Rick Boucher (Va.) and Ben Chandler (Ky.), have also proved to be formidable despite Obama's unpopularity in their districts.



    [ Parent ]
    I, too, read that, and I don't know if it's inside info or sloppy journalism......
    Political journalism can be VERY sloppy, and the inclusion of IL-Sen on that list made me scratch my head a little.  I WANT to believe insiders are finding Giannoulias trending up for real, but I don't know that the author of the piece didn't just say that based on...well, who knows what it's based on?

    Politico has had sloppy work plenty enough in the realm of political analysis.  This item, if not true, would be closer to a factual error, by drawing a conclusion not supported by the data they relied upon.

    But we have no way of knowing.

    What we know is that polling stays mixed in this race, with no clear leader, and we have no reason from public tea leaves to think Alexi is actually on top.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    Though the last two polls had him ahead albeit by a meaningless margin. At least that is better than the tiny margins Kirk had in the older Rasmussen and PPP releases.

    [ Parent ]
    And Kirk's release of strong internals
    sorta smelled of desperation, especially since the numbers for the "other" candidates didn't even come close to what we've seen in public polling.

    [ Parent ]
    Political journalism sometimes reminds me of sports reporting
    Perhaps there are a slightly larger number of good political reporters.... perhaps.

    [ Parent ]
    Ralston, Yepsen
    Chuck Todd, the late Tim Russert. Can't think of many more.

    [ Parent ]
    Chris Cilizza
    The homeless man's Bill Simmons!

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    bleh
    I dont care for him.  Back when the Democrats were leading in OH consistently (oh the days), he said Portman was the star candidate as a former 1/18 compared to the nobodies who were LG and SoS.  Now the polls vindicate him, but to say that our candidates were nobody losers was completely ridiculous.  LG and Sos, come on.

    [ Parent ]
    Suffolk poll of Illinois
    Quinn up 43-37.  Kirk up 42-41.

    http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...

    http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2...

    I don't think Suffolk has ever polled the state, so who knows.


    The Quinn surge looks real
    Senate race is a jump ball if ever there was one. In Illinois that has to favor Alexi.

    [ Parent ]
    This. Poll. Is. A. Shocker. But my examination says it could be a good sample......
    They've got party ID at 35D-25R-38I, and 82% white, compared to the 2008 exit poll of 47D-28R-26I and 73% white; the 2006 exit poll of 46D-31R-23I and 77% white; and the 2004 exit poll of 39D-34R-27I and 78% white.  Yes the party ID differences are big, but to the extent the D-R margin matters most and indies break right this year, Suffolk shrinks the party ID margin considerably compared to the last 2 federal elections and increases the white vote share considerably, which are reasonable for the enthusiasm gap compared to the last few elections.  The bottom line is that there's no oversampling of Dems and Dem-leaners.

    All that taken into consideration, the Quinn lead is stunning, as is the fact he's surpassed Giannlouias in performance.  This poll still could be an outlier, but everything else about it screams ACCURATE.  Completely in line with other polls and what we'd expect, they have a virtual dead heat with Kirk up 42-41 in the Senate race, they have toplines as expected in downballot races, and they have Dems up only a paltry 42-41 in the generic ballot which almost perfectly matches the exact tie PPP found in its last IL poll.

    If Quinn's recovery proves real, it will help us for sure in the Senate race.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    The Independent number seems high
    I thought the general rule was indepedents vote less in midterms then D/R's.

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not sure if I can take this poll seriously
    The cross-tabs are flat-out nuts (65+ make up an insane 38% of total voters; age 18-34 are only 7% of the sample).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    time to see what the next one says
    I personally dont take polls too much at face value as I like to look at the whole spectrum of things and evaluate.  I mean, they're accurate and such, but it's hard to evaluate a race without seeing the whole set of numbers from every pollster.

    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen LV Generic Ballot
    down to R+3.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Clear
    It's clear to me that the Dems have made up some serious ground in the past two weeks.  I assume that the money they have been spending on TV has been a big part of it as well as getting their base more in the game.  Now, it remains to be seen if the GOP will stop their slide or re-open the gap, but apart from generic numbers, there has been more movement in states like CA, IL, WA and OH (Gov, anyway) for me to think it's not happening.  Not that it's still not a GOP year, but they have made up a lot of ground in the last month.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen is just a latecomer catching up with everyone else, meaning...
    ...I don't necessarily expect other pollsters to show a substantially better generic ballot for my party.

    Rasmussen does this every cycle, where  as an election gets close their numbers line up with everyone else's.  If the GOP surges late, everyone else moves closer to Rasmussen's numbers, and Rasmussen looks like a genius.  If the Dems surge late, or there is no surge, Rasmussen moves closer to everyone else, and tries to make everyone forget he looked like an idiot.

    I think there might be something to it that disengaged voters hang up on Rasmussen at a far higher rate than engaged ones, and that has something to do with Rasmussen's results further from an election.  As an election gets close, more voters get engaged, with Democrats benefiting disproportionately in Rasmussen's results because it's Democrats more often than Republicans who tune in late.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    What's absolutely pathetic
    is that the Democrats are finally engaging the American populace 6 weeks out from the election.  They clearly needed to have engaged the tea-baggers ever since they first started their crazy racist rants back on Tax Day.

    [ Parent ]
    Past five weeks:
    R+12
    R+9
    R+10
    R+6
    R+3

    That's some serious tightening!


    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen's usually
    been among the worst for Dems.  Maybe we'll start to see more polls like the Newsweek poll with Dems actually leading, at least among RV's.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Look for a bad Gallup later today
    as they switch to LV.  They're volatile with RV, and super volatile with LV.  Of course, the media, including Faux for once, will trumpet Gallup's numbers and ignore Rasmussen's.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah...
    I'm bracing for that one, too.

    [ Parent ]
    That's going to be a real turd.
    Their preview last week was just dripping with anticipation of feeding the preferred media narrative with a shit sandwich for Democrats.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe they'll punt
    With several turnout scenarios to choose from again!

    [ Parent ]
    Scotty doing his usual
    close to the election tightening.  So, when next week's comes in at six he can shout:  Republicans double their lead.

    [ Parent ]
    Gosh, even in the Gallup Model
    a 3 point difference in the generic ballot translates to a D total of

    223 seats (+/- 11)


    [ Parent ]
    Gosh
    Boy do I feel smug right now. Long way to go though.

    [ Parent ]
    PA-07: Meehan has $1.5 million on hand
    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...
    He raised 750k in the 3rd quarter. Has he even gone up on TV yet?  

    Meh. I wrote off that seat some weeks ago......
    Cook already has PA-07 as lean R.  Rothenberg strangely still calls it a pure tossup, not even tossup/tilt R, and maybe internal polling doesn't yet show this race quite salted away, but I can't imagine Lentz winning and assumed the seat was gone quite awhile ago.  Too bad, because I like Lentz, but that's what a wave will do.  I think his only chance for an upset is if Onorato and Sestak both make big moves into serious contention, but I don't see either quite doing it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Even
    in a good year, Meehan probably would of won. He seems like the candidate that could win in a difficult environment for the GOP.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    He's Recheirt in WA-8 all over again
    ::sigh::  It could be millions and millions wasted on someone who we can come within 5% of but never more.

    [ Parent ]
    Blumenthal
    up 53-41% over McMahon according to PPP. Outlier or not? You decide.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    It lines up almost perfectly with DSCC internals which last were released at 52-40......
    I'm inclined to trust the combination of PPP and DSCC internals, over Q and Ras.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Him 53-39 positive
    Her 53-39 negative.

    [ Parent ]
    Going negative
    so early on the much better liked AG will not help her negatives.

    [ Parent ]
    Also, proving they didn't oversample Team Blue, the ideological makeup...
    ...of 32C-19L is HUGELY MORE CONSERVATIVE than the last 3 exit polls in '08, '06, and '04.  Exit polls for all 3 elections had liberals outnumbering conservatives, Connecticut being one of the few states where you see that.

    And yet here PPP has conservatives with a big advantage on liberals in the turnout model.

    That combined with PPP showing Obama up only 15 on McCain in this sample, compared to his 23-point win, proves that this sample has no bias in our favor and can be trusted.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    And the sample is 53% male...
    when women typically vote in greater numbers. While this is the year of the "angry male," I doubt we'll see a spread like that come election day.

    [ Parent ]
    The only thing I can see
    Is the sample is only 3 points more Republican than 2008.

    [ Parent ]
    That probably means a lot of conservative-leaning indies...
    ...are in the likely voter pool, more than normal.  Probably some disaffected former Rs in the bunch, I would guess.  But still also some depression among left-leaning Is, I bet.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    PPP
    PPP has been doing fairly well.  I'd say that's close to accurate.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Nope
    PPP know what they are doing. But I'll leave it at Tilting retention for now.

    [ Parent ]
    Woohoo!
    So that single-digit race was NOT CT-Sen.

    [ Parent ]
    I figured all along single-digit race is CO-Sen, and I stand by it. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    LA-02
    PPP has Richmond up 49-38. Richmond and Cao have the same favorable/unfavorable numbers (50-29).

    Good news, though I'm going to be antsy about this race until it's called
    Mostly just post-Massachusetts paranoia: Richmond's running a good campaign that isn't going to take this for granted.

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Dems
    Got very lucky this did not go to a run-off. If its still that close after Richmond had been on TV for a month and the Indy black candidate dropped out, Cao can still win this if he runs a good ad campaign. Richmond got a big boost with Fayard making the Lt. Gov run-off and the local races in Jefferson Parish, mainly the president's race, not getting competitive.  

    [ Parent ]
    Cao is a goner, there's nothing he can do to win this......
    He's an incumbent at 38% a month out in this poll and 35% in Richmond's released internal last week, and numbers like that are death in a normal district.

    Couple that with his matched up against a black Democrat in front of a majority black electorate, and it's game over.

    Richmond will end up winning this in the neighborhood of 20 points.

    We have quite a few incumbents in Cao's position, and they, too, all are goners.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Mmmm
    Cao ads versus the president's personal endorsement in Richmond ads. I can't imagine what will work best in that district.

    [ Parent ]
    To bad I kinda like Cao
    if only he represented a hopeless district like LA-01 then I could support him heh.  

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    [ Parent ]
    Florida Chamber of Commerce poll
    Rubio 40
    Crist 33
    Meek 16

    Scott 46
    Sink 42

    http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz...


    who is the CoC backing in FL-gov?
    Are they backing Scott the Scumbag?

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    Yup
    Medicare fraud is just the cost of doing business according to the CoC.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Wow
    How depressing.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]

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