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OH-01: Chabot Leads Driehaus by 12, But Driehaus Leads Among Early Voters

by: James L.

Sat Oct 02, 2010 at 3:36 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (9/28-29, likely voters, 1/12-14 in parens):

Steve Driehaus (D-inc): 41 (39)
Steve Chabot (R): 53 (56)
Jim Berns (L): 3
Rich Stevenson (G): 1
Undecided: 2 (5)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Not much movement for Driehaus here since January's brutal SUSA poll conducted for Firedoglake. The big reason for Driehaus' predicament? African-American voters just don't appear to be enthused -- SUSA pegs the black vote at just 16% of the electorate, down from 28% in their 2008 polling.

Counter-intuitively, though, SUSA's sub-sample of voters who say that they've already cast their ballots in Ohio's early voting process (which began on Tuesday) shows Driehaus with a 53-45 lead over Chabot. Of course, it's a tiny sample (just 6% of the broader sample), but that's not the result you'd expect given the great weight of evidence that suggests that Democrats are facing a steep enthusiasm gap. Might Driehaus be experiencing more success in getting his supporters out to the polls early?

(Hat-tip: silver spring)
James L. :: OH-01: Chabot Leads Driehaus by 12, But Driehaus Leads Among Early Voters
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OH-01: Chabot Leads Driehaus by 12, But Driehaus Leads Among Early Voters | 18 comments
Maybe I did my math wrong but
even with a 64% white, 26% black electorate, Driehaus is still trailing 45-43.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
The comparable 2008 poll showed the same......
That poll had Driehaus still down 46-44, but he eventually won by a decent margin.

One thing here is that SUSA shows Driehaus bleeding only slightly with white voters compared to the late September 2008 poll.  If there's a way to get black voters motivated, he'd have a shot.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
A couple things on this poll......
First, regarding early voting, it could just be unreliable crosstabs from a small subsample, or it could be that the state Dems are just organized on getting the early vote but it will be massively overcome on election day.

In Iowa Dems dominate early voting overwhelmingly, but the GOP destroys out Dems in election day voting.

Focusing on early voting is helpful if you can bank sporadic voters, then you gain something from it.  I hope Ohio Dems are doing that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Same thing in NC
In 2008, early voting is what won all of our races for us.  You can go to our SBOE website and see the breakdown in E-Day/Early results.  We're working hard to get our folks out early this year - early in person begins on 10/14 here.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
[ Parent ]
See Tom Jenson on the enthusiasm gap
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

-In the special House election in Pennsylvania last month our polling found Republican Tim Burns up 60-38 with very excited voters. He trailed 50-46 with somewhat excited voters and 53-37 with not very excited voters. Burns lost the election because the Democrats, excited or not, still turned out

snip


An unexcited vote counts just the same as a very excited one.

I wonder
I wonder if Democrats have gotten used to voting from 2006/2008, and like Tom said, might not be enthusiastic about it, but have gotten accustomed to doing it.

I was going to make the same point as DCCyclone-- Iowa Dems do great on early voting. This year, there is a local ordinance to lower the bar-entry age from 21 to 19. There have been tons of students turning out (we had 1400 at the local dorm on Tuesday), which is why I don't think we'll lose IA-2 (Loebsack).

I hope Dems in Ohio and everywhere else do the same encouragement of early voters..  

[ Parent ]
Driehaus is dead.
If Democrats were only to lose 10 seats this year (or even if they were to win seats), Driehaus would probably be one of those ten Democrats to lose a seat. He won the seat in the first place in quite difficult circumstances.

When even the most optimistic forecasts are showing Democrats losing 20+ seats, and people such as Nate Silver are predicting Democrats losing ~45 seats, Driehaus is probably going to be one of the first seats lost. I just don't see how Democrats lose 45 seats while Driehaus survives.

http://mypolitikal.com/

He has a chance.
A good indicator is the national party presence in the congressional district on viability.  When you check the OFA events page in the Cinci metro area, there are 3 OFA campaign offices set up in his district.  

Maybe because he voted for the healthcare plan or to rally democrats for a dem ticket - all the offices have canvassing events.  Also if memory serves. Driehaus was a state rep in the GOP leaning suburbs of the district for many years.  

So if you add up incumbency, name recognition, and OFA knocking on doors for you - I think he is in better shape than dead.  

NY-29

[ Parent ]
Incumbency and name recognition???
He's running against a guy who represented the district for 14 years.
[ Parent ]
Agree
I concede those advantages.  My overall theme is to look at the numbers of a glimmer of positive news and he might be able to pull it off thanks to OFA grassroots presence.

NY-29
[ Parent ]
This district loves Chabot.
He didn't pull it off in 2008 because of anything bad about Chabot, or anything good about him. It was just more AAs coming to vote for Obama.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
The district doesn't really love Chabot
Look at these numbers:


1988 Thomas A. Luken 117,682 57% Steve Chabot 90,738 43%
1994 David S. Mann 72,822 44% Steve Chabot 92,997 56%
1996 Mark P. Longabaugh 94,719 43% Steve Chabot 118,324 54% John G. Halley Natural Law 5,381 2%
1998 Roxanne Qualls 82,003 47% Steve Chabot 92,421 53%
2000 John Cranley 98,328 45% Steve Chabot 116,768 53% David A. Groshoff Libertarian 3,399 2% Richard L. Stevenson Natural Law 1,933 1%
2002 Greg Harris 60,168 35% Steve Chabot 110,760 65%
2004 Greg Harris 116,235 40% Steve Chabot 173,430 60% *
2006 John Cranley 96,584 48% Steve Chabot 105,680 52%
2008 Steve Driehaus 155,455 52% Steve Chabot 140,683 48%

Chabot never really pulled away when facing real challengers. Cranley would have won in 2006, but by all regards he ran a slightly lackluster campaign.  

[ Parent ]
How does the samples young voter look.
If its overwhelmingly republican then more cause for hope here.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
And nearly 1 in 5 of AA voters are backing Chabot
Which is typical of SUSA.  Although Chabot may do better than most Republicans.
Until 2008, Chabot represented the largest AA constituency of any Republican
High black turnout did Chabot in two years ago, but i doubt he would have held on for so long without a somewhat-decent relationship with Cincinnati's African-American community.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Outside of the two great GOP years
Of 2002 and 2004 he hasn't exactly set the world alight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

[ Parent ]
Yeah, those numbers show he probably loses the black vote badly every time......
He's in the low 50s everytime he runs against anyone NOT named Greg Harris.  He probably loses the black vote 90-10 the same as everywhere else, but normally black turnout isn't too great.  But then he cleans up with white voters in a big margin everytime.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It's too bad
I like Congressman Driehaus, but I agree with others that even if the election turns out a lot better for us than is expected, this is one of the seats that is going in the loss column (no, I'm not giving up on it completely, just trying to be realistic!).

The fact is that despite a blueish tint in the last cycle or two, the district is largely a Republican one.  Cincy is one of the most racially divided cities in the country, and that bleeds into the Lib/Con divide, and add in the suburban parts of the district (which make up like half of it), in a bad year it's brutal, especially when you have a strong Republican candidate.

OH-01: Chabot Leads Driehaus by 12, But Driehaus Leads Among Early Voters | 18 comments

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