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SSP Daily Digest: 10/1 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 3:36 PM EDT


CT-Sen: This might get swallowed up by Linda McMahon's minimum wage comments, which are still dominating the coverage of this particular race, but here's a new instance of McMahon getting tripped up by those annoying little facts. At a tea party rally in April, she fended off a question about lobbyists, saying "I have not spent lobbying dollars in Washington." Disclosures show that WWE, between 2001 and 2008, spent $680K on lobbying expenses, including $340K in 2007-2008 during the period when Congress was investigating use of steroids in sports.

DE-Sen: When asked about his plans for the Delaware race, John Cornyn (after having gotten goaded into giving Christine O'Donnell $42K post-primary) has returned to sounding disinterested: "We will be supporting Christine O'Donnell as appropriate if that race is competitive. Right now it looks like it is not as competitive as other places around the country." (Counting down to another blast of anti-NRSC teabagger fury in 3... 2...) Meanwhile, travel back in time (for the future of mankind) to 2002, and check out this great photo of O'Donnell and friends (which ought to further alarm some of her more conservative supporters worried about her witchcraft past... did it involve bat-head biting too?). Is O'Donnell just Paranoid, or is she really riding the Crazy Train?

AR-Gov: Here's a poll from the one (count 'em, 1) gubernatorial race in the country where the incumbent Democrat is more or less safe. Hendrix College, on behalf of Talk Business, finds Mike Beebe leading Republican Jim Keet 49-35. That's a bit of an improvement from their previous poll in July, where Beebe led 50-41.

CA-Gov: Realizing that she's on the wrong end of written evidence, Meg Whitman's trying out a new tactic: blaming her husband (the soap-opera-named Dr. Griff Harsh). Whitman denied knowing about the letter, but now says she "suspects" that the handwriting on the letter regarding her housekeeper's Social Security number is his. Meanwhile, here's a link to that Spanish-language TV ad on the housekeeper issue that we mentioned yesterday, as part of the SEIU's huge cash infusion to this race.

FL-Gov: With a number of public polls this week showing Rick Scott having moved back into the lead, Alex Sink is leaking an internal poll. She's leading, although by a much smaller margin than the Mason-Dixon poll from just last week that had her up 7. Instead, she's up by only 1, 45-44, in the poll taken over Sept. 23-29 (no word on who the pollster is).

IN-Gov: Retiring Sen. Evan Bayh, of the eight-digit war chest, just gave $500K to the Indiana Democratic Party (after having given $1 million earlier in the year). Presumably that's to help with the three tight House races there, but many are interpreting it as a sign of goodwill oriented toward bolstering his shot at taking back over as Governor in 2012.

MA-Gov: I'll just quote DavidNYC on this: "I hope they sell sacks in XXXL size for Tim Cahill to put his sad into." How craptacular is your campaign when not just your campaign manager but then your actual running mate bails on you and endorses your opponent? That's what happened to indie candidate Tim Cahill, whose Lt. Gov. running mate, Republican state Rep. Paul Loscocco, announced that he's leaving the ticket and backing Charlie Baker instead, perhaps realizing that Cahill's presence is the main thing keeping Baker from a shot at winning. (Also recall that Loscocco had originally wanted to be Baker's running mate but got snubbed for that, and accepted Cahill's offer as something of a fallback.) Cahill, pretty much friendless at this point, just announced in a press conference that he's staying in the race, though.

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo got an unusual endorsement today, from the always-unpredictable world of Staten Island politics. The Conservative borough president, James Molinaro, threw his backing to Cuomo. (Molinaro is a key ally of Michael Bloomberg. Don't confuse him with ex-Rep. and county Conservative party chair Guy Molinari, who's the real power behind the throne on Staten Island.) Also, the war between Carl Paladino (last seen going ballistic on the venerable Fred Dicker) and the Rupert Murdoch-owned New York Post seems to be intensifying, if the latest opus from editor-in-chief Col Allen is any indication (note the intentional use of plural form!). If you're a Republican in New York and you've lost the Post, well, you've lost.

Mr. Caputo should check his facts before making charges against Post personnel. In addition, Mr. Paladino should not be surprised by the media's interest in his families...

OH-13: Now this is seems like it has some game-changing potential here: Tom Ganley, the moneybags car dealer who's turned the Dem-leaning 13th into a real race, just got sued for sexual assault by a former enthusiastic supporter who says she met him at a Tea Party rally and tried to volunteer for his campaign. Ganley, she says, wanted her to volunteer for some rather different duties:

While she waited in Ganley's office, the suit says, he made sexually suggestive comments and invited her to join him and his friends at a condominium he owns in Strongsville. Ganley gave her a $100 bill and told her to buy some lingerie and high-heeled shoes, according to the lawsuit.

Ganley told her he wanted her to dominate her, parade her on a leash and have sex with her in front of his "play friends," the suit says. It accuses him of grabbing her from behind, wrapping his arms around her, kissing her and, despite her resistance, reaching into her pants.

Naturally, the Ganley camp is calling the suit "extortion" and politically motivated.

PA-07: Now that primary season is over, we've pretty much stopped reporting on union endorsements, as they shouldn't come as any surprise at this point... except when they endorse the Republican. That's what happened in the 7th, though, as the United Aerospace Workers local gave its backing to Pat Meehan. (They're a major presence in the district, given the large Boeing helicopter plant near the Philly airport.)

Enthusiasm gap: PPP hasn't been putting out very encouraging numbers lately, but they do offer some cause for optimism that may or may not pan out: with Republican unity pretty much maxed out, the enthusiasm gap can't do anything but shrink. They point out that there are many more Democratic undecideds than Republican ones right now. They show that's especially profound in the Illinois races (and that late coming-home may be what's propelling Pat Quinn all of a sudden), and, although it's not on their chart, I'd guess also in Pennsylvania, where the Dem undecideds have always been strangely high and we may be seeing some gap-closing beginning too.

Money: If you've noticed that there's a crapload of independent expenditures coming from billionaire-funded 527s and 501(c)(3)s in the last month, pretty much wiping out whatever cash advantage the Democratic congressional committees had over the GOP committees, you're not alone in that realization. Bloomberg calculates that independent organizations have outspent the parties combined in trying to buy shape the election: $33 million from folks like American Crossroads and the Chamber of Commerce, compared with $20 million from all of the party committees.

SSP TV:
AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski works fast to turn Joe Miller's ill-advised drapes-measuring tweets against him, with a new radio ad
IL-Sen: Here's another ad with cute babies, this time from Mark Kirk, but this time not about abortion but how DEBT WILL CRUSH US ALL!!1!
NH-Gov: Wow, the RGA must suddenly sense they have an opportunity here, and they have an ad up hitting John Lynch on spending
TX-Gov: Rick Perry can't coast to re-election this time and he's up with another ad, this time hitting Bill White on one of his perceived strengths (emergency management during Hurricane Rita)
FL-08: The NRCC hits back against Alan Grayson for his "Taliban Dan" ad against Dan Webster, calling Grayson "a national embarrassment"
IL-10: The DCCC does a half-and-half ad, touting Dan Seals' business background and hitting Bob Dold! on pro-life and tea party connections

Rasmussen:
FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 41%, Rick Scott (R) 46%
PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 49%
WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Scott Walker (R) 50%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/1 (Afternoon Edition)
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I guess the
money issue will only get worse in future elections.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Probably
the spending for the presidential race is probably going to reach at least a billion two years from now. The sorta upside is that you'll probably see Obama and the GOP nominee focus play for states that are usually not competitive.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
New Boxer
ad attacks Fiorina on outsourcing. (Wonder when Boxer will mention why Fiorina got fired from HP.)



19, Male, Independent, CA-12


She'll mention it in the last 10 days
That's Boxer's strikeout pitch.  Or the knockout blow, if you prefer.  ;)

[ Parent ]
Boxer has pulled away at the end before
I wouldn't be surprised if Fiorina loses by 10 points.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Against a better opponent in Matt Fong, also 10 points (eom)


[ Parent ]
Maybe, although I think Fiorina would have to implode, ala Fong
At this point, I'd wager Boxer wins by about 52-45. I think Boxer and Fiorina have shored up their party bases, meaning Boxer should have it in the bag regardless, but I have my doubts Boxer will win among Indies in the end. California Indies are an odd breed, voting 2-to-1 for the likes of Ahnold and Obama. In this sort of cycle, my hunch is Boxer and Fiorina basically tie among them. Oh hell, I'll just do a projection...

Democrat - 42%
GOP - 33%
Independent - 25%

Boxer - 92/4/47 = 52%
Fiorina - 7/93/46 = 46%
Others - 1/3/7 = 2%

So, I was off by a point. Lean D.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
That's assuming all those Indies vote...
Looking at the last voter registration report, Decline-to-State plus all the third parties equal 25%. But almost always Independent turnout drops during midterms, so I'm wondering if DTS/Third Party turnout will even make up 20% of this year's voters in CA.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Can't find partisan crosstabs on turnout figures
But I would imagine the independent dropoff is less in CA than in other states, as open primaries provided a motivation for the politically savvy to register DTS.

[ Parent ]
But it's still fairly significant...
Since midterm elections are "base elections". And I'll have to double-check, but from what I remember there aren't very many DTSers who vote by mail, at least compared to Republicans and Democrats. And I wouldn't be surprised if 40-50% of all the ballots cast in Cali this fall will be done so via mail.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Varies by state
Here in California, every midterm years we elect a Governor and six other constitutional officers, and we always have a plethora of propositions to drive voter interest.

By contrast, in Virginia they have nothing but the House, as state office elections take place in odd-numbered years and neither of their Senators are up this year.

By the way, if you find partisan or VBM crosstabs on turnout, I'd appreciate a link.  I'm working on some models that could really benefit from that kind of data.


[ Parent ]
This is all I can find...
Interesting county breakdown of VBM, but no party breakdown.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Umm, that would be NOW!
I believe VBM ballots will be dropped next week. The election essentially starts this month in California. Whatever Boxer has on iCarly, she should just drop now.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I never really had any doubt Boxer would win
Fiorina having a shot was a pipe dream the republican establishment projected onto people.  I laugh at them.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I, lidem89odamus, hereby predict...
That Dems will lose no house seats or Senate seats or Governor's seats on the West Coast/Hawaii.

I realize WA-03 could be my dream's undoing...but I think Heck will pull it out in the end.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
So could CA-11
On the other hand, if we read an implied "net" into your prediction, HI-01 probably gives you a mulligan.

But I'd be surprised if we lost more than those two.


[ Parent ]
Loretta Sanchez ain't
doing herself any favors either in CA-47.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Agreed
but Tran has a lot of ground to make up.  This ain't B-1 Bob's district anymore.

[ Parent ]
Ironically enough...
For all Loretta Sanchez's efforts to paint herself as a "pro-business Democrat", "raging LIBERAL!" Barbara Boxer may end up pulling Loretta across the finish line. In federal races, CA-47 tends to closely mirror the statewide results (with the one exception of Bush narrowly winning CA-47 in 2004, but even then Boxer still carried the district with 60%). So if Boxer wins comfortably statewide, she'll probably also win CA-47 by a decent margin and the CDP's Boxer-Brown coordinated campaign in Central Orange County will most likely also work to Loretta's advantage.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
2004
 Was when there was high Vietnamese turnout for Van Tran and Bush did well with Hispanics so that was probably why Kerry lost Sanchez's district.

This year though, I am certain Sanchez will win. Everyone is talking about how Sanchez may be disenfranchising Vietnamese but no one is mentioning this district has about a 65% Hispanic population. I know Hispanic turnout is low but they should still make up a good propotion of it. Even when Bush made strong inroads among Hispanics, he still won by 1 point.  Van Tran has not done much outreach to the Hispanics which Sanchez seems to be doing fine with right now. As long as she does well with them, Van Tran's margins among whites and Vietnamese should not push him over the top.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
The Vietnamese vote share is NOT going to be THAT high......
Vietnamese are less than 10% of the district's total population.  I bet the adult population is a smaller percentage, and the voter registration and turnout rates are lower than for whites, although clearly higher than for Hispanics.

That's not decisive unless Sanchez is BARELY winning among the other 90%-plus.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Hispanics and Vietnamese
When you look at Registered Voters, a higher % of the Vietnamese population is registered than the Hispanic population. Vietnamese also are more likely to turnout than Hispanics. That will make it a lil closer, plus white voters.  

[ Parent ]
Does he actually expect anyone to believe him?


[ Parent ]
I'm starting to think
Crist thinks that voters are stupid.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Especially in a state like Florida


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
That's "senile," not "stupid"
But the good news for him is that a significant percentage of the state's population can't remember he was a republican!

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

[ Parent ]
AL-Gov: Bentley rejects Romney endorsement
Opposite intentions or what
Facepalm.

[ Parent ]
Real Meg
Is this as good as I think it is?

http://thepage.time.com/2010/1...


It ties up Whitman and Fiorina in an awfully similar package
I think it's a pretty good ad, but Whitman's released a few affective ones herself. If Whitman can end the housekeeper story by next week, this should remain a competitive race. What have Jerry Brown's positive ads been like?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Here's one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

After HousekeeperGate, I'm not sure how Whitman can keep the Latino vote from turning decisively against her. That should effectively shut down her chances, I would think.


[ Parent ]
Not much better than the "Serious" ad
And that's the one that's been getting the most airplay here in L.A.  Jerry really needs to can the "at this stage in my life" shtick.

[ Parent ]
I think it's okay...
I'm not in CA, but I think these issues came up during the primary. I do like the close question about character, though, as it ties in subtly with the HousekeeperGate issues.

[ Parent ]
IL-10 ad
I hope Seals has more than just the fact that Dold called the tea party "great". That one word "great" weakened the ad.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

NV-Sen: New Reid Ad Hits Angle...
On what could be yet another Achille's Heel...

And with 2 weeks left until early voting begins, I can definitely see why Harry is pulling out all the stops.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


CT-Sen: Blumenthal rushes out ad hitting McMahon on her company and her comments.
Not bad at all for a rush job ad.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


NV-Sen: Angle thinks some places in the US are under Sharia Law.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...
I'm getting sick of some of these right-wingers thinking Sharia Law is slowly permeating our society (that includes you too, Newton Gingrich!).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Barney Frank opponent raises 400k in ONE month
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...
Sean Bielat raised 223k up until August 25th. He raised another 400k in September alone.  

Good, he'll probably be able to only lose by a percentage in the teens.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It's like all that excitement on the right...
Over the teabagger running against Nancy Pelosi. For a while, he was benefitting from moneybombs and there was talk of teabagger busses going into SF.

I figured maybe if they work hard enough, the GOPer may be able to crack 20%. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Niki Tsongas is lucky he didn't live in her district though. He is a very strong candidate actually, just running in the wrong district.  

[ Parent ]
He'll get ~40% of the vote
The district went 63% for Obama, so it's not the kind of place that you see Republicans running close races (though Scott Brown did carry it.) Frank is a polarizing guy but fairly popular in the district.

I have read about the challenger, Bielat, in the local papers, and he's serious about this race, so this will closer than Frank's previous elections, where he's often unopposed. But to his credit, Frank isn't taking anything for granted, as he's making the campaign rounds and even had a fundraiser with Bill Clinton. Knock a few points of Obama's number because of the year, and you get a 60-40 Frank win.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
I don't sense the same enthusiasm for Bielat as there was for Brown
or anywhere near. I remember when Obama came here to give a speech on behalf of Coakley there was a huge counter-protest by the Scott Brown people that drew up an enormous crowd. At Clinton's speech for Frank  there was a pathetic counter protest consisting of five people with a bull horn. I know it's not an apples to apples compirson but there is no where near the enthusiasm for Bielat as there  was for Brown

[ Parent ]
Nope, there's not
For Republicans, electing Brown meant at the time stopping HCR, so it really motivated conservatives from all parts of the country. MA-04 would be a "trophy seat" because it would be taking out the Banking Committee Chair, but in the end, its one of several hundred races on election night.

Bielat will engage the base because he has the money and the campaign structure to do so, but the base in MA-04 just isn't all that big.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
The other major difference
Frank ain't sleeping. Frank is going full force against Bielat, and he is not going to be caught sleeping at the wheel. Its totally against Barney Frank's personality to Coakley this.  

[ Parent ]
sorry to crush that dream, but that doesnt mean shit
I have friends who worked on Maureen Reed's campaign, anyone remember her?  She ran against Bachmann for a number of months this cycle and my friends would do donor research (look up who has donated to the Sierra Club, for example), call them up, say "Hi Im with Maureen Reed, she's a Democrat and running against Michele Bachmann, would you like to donate?" and it was a done deal.  Her campaign shocked most Minnesotans in her ability to fundraise because it was literally that simple to fundraise for someone running against Michele Bachmann.

Barney Frank is one of the Democrats that strike fear into the hearts of Republicans and fund-raising for a GOPer that's running against him shouldnt be hard.


[ Parent ]
Tom Ganley & suit
It's funny, because I live a hop, skip, and a jump away from the condominiums that Ganley has a living space in.  

But seriously, Ganley has been running as a rich man, but has been able to avoid the "stupid, jerk, rich guy" label that so many self-funders have stumbled into.  His whole campaign has focused on his businesses, his volunteer projects in the community, and the obscure angle about helping beat mobsters 20 years ago.  But this, I mean, if this has any legs at all, he's done.  At the very least, Sutton will hammer him around the clock on it, and on women's issues in general, and at worst he'll be looking at a criminal investigation.  

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but in a democratic district like OH-13, this could be fatal.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


Congressmen John Hall, Alan Grayson, and Phil Hare.

Nate Silver thinks three members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus may very well lose their seats this year.  Silver estimates that there is a 73.4% chance Hall will be defeated in the 19th District of New York; a 60.6% chance Grayson will be defeated in the 8th District of Florida; and a 43.4% chance Hare will be defeated in the 17th District of Illinois.

Hall, Grayson, and Hare are among the less-than-a-handful among the approximately 78 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus who represent other than urban inner city or majority minority districts.  Hall, Grayson, and Hare are the Members whose involvement as "out" progressives is supposed to give courage to the mass of timid Democrats from competitive districts.

Even progressive netroots activists otherwise "sitting out" this cycle should contribute every dollar they can to Hall, Grayson, and Hare, and should find ways to volunteer and help with persuasion and GOTV.  If they do, they will (1) keep their delicate hands clean and odor-free, (2) enhance the possibility that Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker; and (3) help tilt power on the Democratic side of the aisle towards progressives.

If progressives in numbers were actually to do this, then Hall, Grayson, and Hare would amass monetary and volunteer resources that would likely push them over the top to victory.  That would send a message to timid Democrats that voting and acting like Democrats can very much be a winning strategy.

But if any one of Hall, Grayson, or Hare receives unexceptional netroots support, netroots influence will diminish.    


All three of those are worthy
I'd also give props to Shea-Porter and Sutton, two vulnerable incumbents who are not members of the CPC, but are ranked 51st and 16th, respectively, on lifetime progressive scores at Progressive Punch (both are actually higher than Grayson and Hall, and Sutton is higher than Hare as well).

Radical or something, WA-07

[ Parent ]
Hare
Hare's predecessor, Lane Evans, also had come close calls.  If he were to lose, not only would the Democrats lose the house, but they'd probably lose over 50 seats.


[ Parent ]
Not true. Hare is one whose last name is unfortunately appropriate......
Hare really was just that this cycle, he took at nap and the GOP tortoise caught up with him.

This is a race that signifies not the size of the wave, but simply what can happen in a Dem-leaning but not-quite-completely-safe seat when the incumbent isn't aware of the unusual risk that's not there in a normal year.

We can lose "just" 40 seats, perhaps even fewer, and Hare could still lose.

Remember we won "just" 30 seats in 2006, and that was enough, and still Jeb Bradley and Jim Ryun and Melissa Hart and Jim Leach all lost when they weren't really in anyone's Top 40 in September.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
There are always
 A few people on the Lean D or Lean R who lose (like Baron Hill in 2004 and Nancy Boyda in 2006 and 2008.) It is because the polls are either wrong or one candidate has connected with voters in an unexpected way. Trying to guess who it is does not always work because it is usually someone we do not expect. In 2006, I did not expect Leach from Iowa to lose.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Agree to disagree
Lane Evans had some close calls in the the late 90s, and I remember there was some closing polling when Hare first ran in '06, even though he ended up winning fairly comfortably, so this was not an NH-1 situation, coming out of the blue.  However, this still should not be a top 40 race if for no other reason than there are dozens of seats more vulnerable than this one.  What you say could happen, but my money is on this seat being a bellweather for a '94 type election.

[ Parent ]
Hare has always come off as a grouch
Evans had a very progressive voting record, but also was a very personable guy, so hit fit well despite the district leaning only slightly Democratic (D+3 I think.) Hare's voting record is about the same as Evans', but he doesn't seem to have the people skills of his mentor so I could see some moderates who always voted for Evans switching sides this year.

This year is the first real test for Hare, as Evans more or less hand-picked him in the '06 primary and he got to run in two great cycles in '06 and '08. A lot of sophomore Democrats are like that--they have 4 years of House experience but have yet to run a tough race.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
same for herseth sandlin in SD
while the 04 special and general election were tough, she started out ahead by 20 points (in the special) and it tightened really quickly.  06 and 04 were really easy for her.  if she survives now, she's probably safe forever.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Grayson doesn't need more money
The other two I couldn't agree more.

[ Parent ]

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