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UPDATED: DCCC/NRCC I.E.'s - Reading the Tea Leaves

by: spiderdem

Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 8:29 AM EDT


I went through the Independent Expenditure reports for September to find out which House races the parties were making I.E.'s in.  Below is my armchair, sound byte analysis of the races in which the party committees have made I.E.'s (and some hyped races where they have not).

UPDATE: I have updated to provide CoH comparisons for all races, and to include some of the good information provided in the comments.

The Hot List - Races where both committees have made I.E.'s.

AL-02 - 6 to 1 CoH edge to Bright.  DCCC internal showed 9 point lead.  I suspect he is only slightly ahead.
AR-01 - 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Crawford.  Causey seems to have turned this into a battle.
AZ-05 - 4 to 1 CoH edge to Mitchell.  This seems very, very tight.
CA-11 - 3 to 1 CoH edge to McNerney.  Suspect this one is very tight.  Whitman/Fiorina implosion may help.
IL-10 - CoH dead even.  Seals internal shows 13 point lead.  I suspect Dold is behind with upside potential.
IL-14 - 6 to 1 CoH edge to Foster.  Foster is probably behind for DCCC to spend here.
MD-01 - 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kratovil.  This may be the surprise of the night if Kratovil holds on.  Seems close.
MI-01 - CoH dead even.  McDowell's poll showing a tossup is credible in light of both parties' investments.
MI-07 - 7 to 1 CoH edge to Schauer.  Schauer is probably behind but seems to be improving.
MO-04 - 6 to 1 CoH edge to Skelton.  Must be real trouble for him.
MS-01 - 4 to 1 CoH edge to Childers.   I suspect Childers is behind by single digits.
NY-24 - CoH dead even. Polls show a modest Arcuri lead.
OH-16 - 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Boccieri.  Glad we're even playing here, but I have to believe Boccieri is behind.
PA-03 - 10 to 1 CoH edge to Dahlkemper.  Playing from behind here.
PA-11 - 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kanjorski.  Playing from behind here too, but I'm amazed we're still playing at all!
SC-05 - 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Spratt.  Seems like real trouble for Spratt.
WA-03 - 6 to 1 CoH edge to Heck.  Dems playing from behind here, but Heck seems to be closing.
WI-07 - 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Duffy.  Duffy seems to be ahead here, but I suspect by single digits.
WV-01 - CoH dead even.  I suspect Oliviero is ahead, but McKinley may have upside.  

Races where DCCC has made I.E.'s but not NRCC.

FL-25 - 2 to 1 CoH edge to Rivera.  Love that the Dems are going after this.  I actually think we're slightly ahead.
GA-02 - CoH dead even.  Lackluster fundraising from ethically challenged Bishop.
HI-01 - CoH dead even.  GOPVOTER notes that the NRCC delivers only stealth support in HI.
IA-03 - 7 to 1 CoH edge to Boswell.  If it's competitive, why aren't the Republicans in?  If not, why are the Dems?
IL-17 - 4 to 1 CoH edge to Hare.  Had this one pegged as a sleeper early on.
MA-10 - 3 to 1 CoH edge to Keating.  Surprised that Dems seem to be feeling the heat here.  
NC-08 - 3.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kissell.  Not sure this says anything except that Kissell is a horrible fundraiser.
OH-13 - 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to self-funder Ganley.  Ganley's little, um, problem may take care of this one.
VA-02 - 6 to 1 CoH edge to Nye.  I suspect we're behind here.
VA-11 - 5 to 1 CoH edge to Connolly.  This is a real sleeper.

Races where NRCC has made I.E.'s but not DCCC.

AZ-01 - 20 to 1(!) CoH edge for Kirkpatrick.  Kirkpatrick has to get by on that for awhile, even in a tight race.
FL-02 - 9 to 1 CoH edge to Boyd.  Similar dynamic to AZ-01.  I bet it's tight.
FL-08 - 13 to 1 CoH edge to Grayson.  Dumb Grayson ad a game changer.
FL-24 - 11 to 1 CoH edge to Kosmas.  Somewhat like AZ-01 and FL-02.
GA-08 - 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to Marshall.  Seems like the DCCC needs to get in this one.
IL-11 - 3 to 1 CoH edge to Halvorson.  Potential triage victim.
IN-02 - 3 to 1 CoH edge to Donnelly.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is in real trouble.
IN-08 - 1.7 to 1 CoH edge to Van Haaften.  Pleased that Republicans even feel the need to spend here.
IN-09 - 4 to 1 CoH edge to Hill.  Have yet to see the evidence that he is in trouble.
KY-06 - 5 to 1 CoH edge to Chandler.  Ditto.
NC-07 - 9 to 1 CoH edge to McIntyre.  I suspect Pantano really is closing (but not ahead as per SUSA).
ND-AL - 2 to 1 CoH edge to Pomeroy.  I suspect he's behind.
NJ-03 - 4 to 1 CoH edge to Adler.  This appears to be closing, so DCCC will probably get in.
NM-01 - 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Heinrich.  Heinrich seems to have a persistent, modest lead.
NV-03 - 3 to 1 CoH edge to Titus.  atdleft tells us DCCC is about to make I.E.'s here.
NY-20 - 3 to 1 CoH edge to Murphy.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is endangered.
OR-05 - 5 to 1 CoH edge to Schrader.  Seems to be a pretty tight race.
PA-07 - 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Meehan.  Surprised that the RNCC is even bothering to spend here.
PA-08 - 3 to 1 CoH edge to Murphy.  This is headed in the wrong direction, so I hope the DCCC gets in this month.
PA-10 - 70 to 1(!) CoH edge to Carney.  I suspect he is slightly ahead now.
SD-AL - 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Herseth-Sandlin.  She seems to have taken a firm lead.
TN-08 - 2 to 1 CoH edge to Herron.  I suspect the RNCC is only spending to counteract that advantage.
TX-17 - 5 to 1 CoH edge to Edwards.  Very similar to TN-08, but I suspect Edwards is in even more trouble.
VA-05 - 8 to 1 CoH edge to Periello.  Actually also kind of similar to TN-08 and TX-17.
VA-09 - 7 to 1 CoH edge to Boucher.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is endangered.
WI-08 - 11 to 1 CoH edge to Kagen.  I suspect Kagen is in bigger trouble than many think.

SSP "Toss-Up" or worse races where neither party has made I.E.'s.

AR-02 - 3 to 1 CoH edge to Griffin.  Democratic write-off.
CO-03 - 7.5 to 1 CoH edge to Salazar.  I suspect Salazar is not in as much trouble as partisan polling suggests.
CO-04 - 2 to 1 CoH edge to Markey.  Possible triage victim.
DE-AL - 5 to 1 CoH edge to Carney.  Republican write-off.
FL-22 - 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Klein.  Both parties letting well-funded candidates slug it out.
ID-01 - 17 to 1 CoH edge to Minnick.  Republican write-off (at least so far).
KS-03 - 2 to 1 CoH edge to Yoder.  Possible triage victim.
LA-02 - 2 to 1 CoH edge to Cao.  Republican write-off?  Or are they going to provide stealth support a la HI-01?
LA-03 - CoH dead even.  Democratic write-off.
NH-01 - 3.5 to 1 CoH edge to Shea-Porter.  This was a late primary, so we'll see what happens.
NH-02 - 1.4 to 1 CoH edge to Kuster.  I expect both parties to play here this month.
NM-02 - CoH dead even.  Like FL-22, both parties letting well-funded candidates slug it out.
NY-19 - CoH dead even.  Sorry PPP, but if Hall were down two, both parties would be in.  
NY-23 - 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Owens.  I suspect both parties are pretty confident that Owens wins the three-way.
NY-29 - 7 to 1 CoH edge to Reed.  Democratic write-off.
OH-01 - CoH dead even.  Possible triage victim.
OH-15 - 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Stivers.  Possible triage victim.  
TN-06 - 2 to 1 CoH edge to Black.  Democratic write-off.
TX-23 - 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Rodriguez.  I suspect Rodriguez is in decent shape.  Polls were way off in 2006.
WA-02 - 7 to 1 CoH edge to Larsen.  Larsen may be in good shape.  Survey USA may have created a false narrative.
spiderdem :: UPDATED: DCCC/NRCC I.E.'s - Reading the Tea Leaves
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UPDATED: DCCC/NRCC I.E.'s - Reading the Tea Leaves | 24 comments
DCCC is about to spend in NV-03...
They had a bit of a SNAFU earlier this week when they suggested they'd cancel their October ad buys b/c they thought Dina Titus didn't need them, only to then reorder them when the NRCC then tried to suggest the DCCC was forfeiting (which is ridiculous, since Dina is ahead, has more CoH, and is benefitting from the Dems' superior GOTV operation).

And btw, I noticed in the last ad that the DCCC was also credited.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

I'd write HI-01 off if I were NRCC
The real value of the special election win was the narrative it helped build for this November.  Even if he survives this year, Djou has little chance with native son Obama heading the ballot in 2012 unless he somehow morphs into the mirror image of Gene Taylor before then.

Agree with nearly all of your other points, particularly WA-02.

The macroenvironment in Hawaii reallly makes it tough for Djou......
Lingle is an unpopular Republican Governor, the Dems are poised to take the Governorship for the first time in 8 years and also have a Senate race that both send the state Dem machine into overdrive, and Obama has a sky-high job approval.  That's a lot for Djou to overcome.

It's worth noting that pundits who rate the House races by numerical ranking by order of likelihood of flipping, Djou is in EVERYONE's top 40, even though he's lately slipped down close to 40.  Given there are 3 other GOP-held seats in all these same analysts' top 20, and they all expect or appear to expect the GOP to take the House or get real close, that means they are all expecting Djou ultimately to lose.

But no doubt this one is still less likely for us than LA-02, DE-AL, or IL-10.

I just hope we can get one or two more between FL-25, CA-03, KS-04, or elsewhere.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
CA-45 would be nice...
and would deflate my old colleague Neil Stevens nicely, since that's his home district.  My money's on FL-25, though.

I note that Charlie Cook doesn't think we have a prayer in KS-04.  Unfortunately, I can't really fault him for that one.

[ Parent ]
He's wrong not to put it on the "likely R" list of vulernable seats......
I honestly think KS-04 deserves lean R, but even a skeptic should have it as likely R rather than safe.

I am learning through careful observation this cycle of what Cook et al. are doing NOT to accept their ratings without challenge, inside info or not.

And Cook's last column, while reasonable in its major points, definitely did have an air of "I know better because I know secrets you don't know so just trust me at face value."  That was off-putting, and his dubious ratings in some races justify NOT taking his ratings completely at face value.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
They never spent in the special either
Its a smart move. Hawaiian's do not like outside influence. I think thats part of the reason Ed Case did so bad. The NRCC would do more harm than good.  
[ Parent ]
"Hawaiian's do not like outside influence"
You could say the same about Alaska. Some people say the reason why AK-Sen tightened at the end between Begich and Stevens was the D-Trip airing ads in AK. But Stevens conviction was the saving grace for a Mark Begich victory.
[ Parent ]
I agree with your tea leaves disagree with some of them
I don't believe Foster, Boccieri, Schuruer, Skelton, Spratt, Halvorson, (possibly Pomeroy and Edwards), CSP and I believe Perriello, Heck, Lassa, Childers and Dahlkemper are down but not enough that the D-Trip can't save them, same goes with Marshall.

But where i'm confusec is money. According to you alot of Dems have raised alot of money tan there GOP opponents but bwcause of that there toast I don't get that. Not trying to be ignorant or rude by the farest but i'm a tad confused Spider.

Correction
I should of said this:

"

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I agree with your tea leaves disagree with some of them (0.00 / 0)
I don't believe Foster, Boccieri, Schuruer, Skelton, Spratt, Halvorson, (possibly Pomeroy and Edwards) and CSP are down"

[ Parent ]
Not ignorant or rude at all.
I think Foster, Boccieri, Schauer, Halvorson, Pomeroy, Edwards and Shea-Porter are down.  My ability to disregard polling evidence only goes so far.  I think Skelton and Spratt are in very tight races.  Could be up or down.

D-trip is helping Heck, Lassa, Childers, and Dahlkemper, but I think they're all down too.  D-trip may ultimately help Periello, but I doubt it somewhat.  Too persistent a Republican lead and too tough a district.

Here's the deal on my thinking some Democrats with big cash advantages are in trouble.  If a Democrat has a big cash advantage and the DCCC still sees the need to engage in that district at this early a stage, I consider that a sign the candidate is behind in the polls or close to it.  Otherwise the DCCC would put resources elsewhere and let the candidate coast on the big cash advantage.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Well here's my take
With Mark Schurer there has been dueling polls regarding his leads and defecits so it can go both ways for him. I see true sign Boccieri is in trouble unlike Steve Deriehaus. Pomeroy and Berg has been trading polls so it could either way in ND-AL. Halvorson possibly after thinking about it but not to the point where they have to play triege with him. Heck has been closing in still down but closing in. Dalkemper can go either way with that district. Perriello has only been down 2-3 points in non SUSA polls and he's far from out. Childers can beat Nunellee with his conservatve credentials. I have seen nothing with the exception of the crappy We Ask America polls that Foster is in trouble. Edwards can win by localizing the race, that's how he's been able to hold down in that bloody red district. Lassa may lose because of the cycle but in a nutural environment WI-7 can be taken back from Duffy if in fact wins. CSP can come back because of the nasty primary Guinta has and everyone thought CSP was dead in '08 and won. As for Dems with huge cash advantage. My opinion there's nothing wrong with the candidates getting alittle help espically for the fossil Dems like Spratt and Skelton. But prediction wise you say these guys are down, how many do you think can come back in the end of the day and win it?
[ Parent ]
Of the ones you mentioned,
I think Skelton and Spratt will survive, and I don't feel strongly about even that.  I wish I had your optimism.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Shoot man that's not even optimism
That's just me being fairly pregmatic. If I was truely optimistic I would of said something like Kanjorski and Lentz will win in a landslide and well actually net gain seats. Now that's optimism Spider. I don't know I think Guys like Foster, McNerney, Halvorson, CSP, Boccierri and Perriello and the others I mentioned will hold on there it will be squeakers but I think they will hold on. I can't say the same for guys like Lassa and Dahlkemper though. But I think well just have to agree to disagree on those and there's nothing wrong with that.
[ Parent ]
Guys
Lassa and Dahlkemper are gals, not guys. :-)

Welcome to SSP!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Me and my typos
Anyways thanks for the welcome Pan.
[ Parent ]
But still regardless of whatever I agree or disagree with you on some of the races
This is a very insightful and thoughtout diary. Good work comeing up with this Spiderdem.
[ Parent ]
Thanks, always nice to receive praise from royalty!


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Thank You
I picked King Clancy for my usernsme not because it's a cool name, but after one of my favorite hockey players Frank "King" Clancy of the Toronto Maple Leafs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K...

[ Parent ]
Very insightful diary...
Would love to see updates as more expenditures are reported. Thanks.
I wonder if the RNCC
is withholding in some districts because they're seeing big outside expenditures there, attacking the Dems. Not that there's coordination or anything... ;-)
That's a great observation.
The outside groups are so prevalent and so rich that the RNCC may only feel the need to target a fairly narrow slew of races, confident that the billionaire funds will take up the slack in the districts that are tougher "gets."

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Awesome diary!
One of the things I love about SSP is that people not only know what an IE is, but also how to analyze them in the context of a race.

The NRCC just did go on the air in FL-08 today to respond to "Taliban Dan." I believe that the link is in this morning's Digest. Like you, I was very surprised it took them so long because Webster has no money and Grayson has a ton of it.

I'm also surprised that no one's up in NY-19 given the closeness of the race, but it could be for the same reasons as NM-02 and FL-22--Hall and Hayworth are dead even in finances, and NYC isn't the most cost-efficient place to run ads to begin with.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

IEs
are a great tell tale of where the races are.  SSP used to keep a really detailed running tally.  It was great.  James indicated time does not permit this year, which I totally understand.  Wish I had the time and tech knowledge to post something detailed like that.  Instead Ill probably post something more general like this now and then.  Glad you liked it.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
It is a pretty good diary
I mean it's one thing for the regulars here to make diary on Congressional and Governor predictions. But to create a diary regarding what each party is thing on where or where not there doing IE's in. Well that's very astute and thoughtout on your behalf regardless of whatever someone agrees or disagrees on the writing on the tea leaves.
[ Parent ]
UPDATED: DCCC/NRCC I.E.'s - Reading the Tea Leaves | 24 comments

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