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SSP Daily Digest: 10/1 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: Another great catch by the Mudflats, and I'm ashamed I missed this one myself. In trying to explain why he applied for an indigent hunting license (for people making less than $8200/yr), Joe Miller claimed he was on a merit scholarship at Yale. Fortunately, Mudflats catches something about my alma mater that managed to slip my mind: Yale doesn't offer merit scholarships. What lie will come next from the Miller camp?
  • CT-Sen: Heartless bastard Linda McMahon said she wants to lower the minimum wage - and even admitted she didn't fucking know what the current minimum wage is! I love it when zillionaire assholes think that the guys on the bottom rung should be shoved down a rung further. Eh, fuck you, Linda McMahon.
  • Connecticut's Working Families Party also took this opportunity to slam McMahon and endorse Dem Richard Blumenthal, who will benefit from having the WFP line. (Connecticut, like New York, allows fusion voting.) In case you were wondering, all five of CT's Congressmembers have the WFP's backing, as does gubernatorial nominee Dan Malloy.

  • DE-Sen: When called on the fact that her LinkedIn page made the extremely lulzy claim that she'd studied at Oxford, Christine O'Donnell claimed someone else had posted the profile. Now a different version has been uncovered at ZoomInfo (which says the profile was claimed - presumably by O'Donnell - through a "double opt-in process"), and it, too, has the Oxford bullshit. I'd say "busted!", but is this even remotely a surprise?
  • KY-Sen: Have you seen Jack Conway's excellent new ad about Kentucky's drug problem? Well, Rand Paul thinks it's "kind of tacky and really dishonest and kind of creepy." Mike Donta, the man featured in the ad who lost his son to drug addiction, said Paul's childish reaction is an "insult," both to him and other families battling this problem.
  • And one other important note: The ad buy that the DSCC supposedly cancelled here has been "bought back," according to Aaron Blake.

  • OH-Sen: The Cleveland Plain Dealer obtained an internal Lee Fisher finance document, which lays out a bunch of different scenarios for keeping the campaign financially afloat in the final month of the race. It's not a pretty picture - one nuclear option involves laying off ten staff members to pay for TV time. And worst of all, Fisher apparently raised less than a million bucks in the quarter. Sigh.
  • WV-Sen: Despite John Raese's efforts to paint him as weak on coal, Dem Gov. Joe Manchin secured the endorsement of the West Virginia Coal Association, which "represents 90 percent of the state's coal producers."
  • HI-Gov: He doesn't sound quite like an anti-vax nutter, but Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona is refusing to get a flu shot himself, saying he's "not convinced that vaccines are more beneficial that harmful," despite encouraging state residents to get vaccinated. Yeah, that's helpful.
  • CO-04: If I had my dream job, newspaper writers would refer to me as "Democratic ratfucker DavidNYC," because really, I love nothing more than a good ratfuck. So kudos to "Our Community Votes," which is running a radio ad "attacking" a conservative independent candidate, ostensibly in the hopes of raising his profile and making him more appealing to wingers. It's not clear who's behind the group, but "public records shows that it shares Washington, D.C., office space with other groups tied to Steve Rosenthal, a longtime labor movement and Democratic strategist and former political director of the AFL-CIO." And there's real money behind this buy, too: $100,000 worth.
  • CO-07: The douchebags at the American Future Fund are spending $560K trying to unseat Ed Perlmutter, and apparently in a first for them, this includes a canvass operation, not just ad buys.
  • IL-10: Another day, another legal hassle for Bob Dold! The FEC dinged him for failing to report a $17,000 expenditure for "a motor coach that was used in Dold's ads as part of a bus tour." Dold submitted amended reports which showed several other expenditures and debts that somehow went missing from his earlier filings. How do you just forget about $17,000? Bob Dold!
  • WA-08: Ugh - this is pathetic. Evidently the League of Conservation Voters - another one of those ostensibly liberal groups that loved to endorse so-called "moderate" Republicans - enjoys getting abused. Earlier this year, Dave Reichert admitted that he occasionally votes a pro-environment line simply to remain in office. Despite this, the LCV is endorsing Reichert on account of his cap-and-trade vote. Glad to see they admire sincerity so much.
  • Site News: The Swing State Project just enjoyed its biggest month ever, with over 700,000 pageviews and more than 350,000 visitors. Here's hoping the trend continues!
  • SSP-TV:

    • MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan attacks Roy Blunt for being a "prodigious pork-meister." Does anyone else think this is as lame and boring as when Republicans try to pin this on us?
    • NV-Sen: Harry Reid has led the way with relentless, hard-hitting, and just plain good attack ads this cycle. Yeah, Sharron Angle provides a lot of fodder, but all Republicans have weak spots. This ad nails her for trying to repeal a law which requires insurance companies to cover mammograms
    • WV-Sen: Joe Manchin hits John Raese with his own words, including Raese's infamous "I made money the old-fashioned way - I inherited it" gem
    • CO-Gov: Dan Maes (yeah, I know!!) has a really boring minute-long intro ad. No word on the size of the "buy," but I doubt he could even afford to run Google ads on SSP
    • FL-25: Two ads from GOPer David Rivera - the first a boring spot about cutting government spending (check out the weird artifacts bouncing off his shirt at 27 seconds - you think YouTube? or is the broadcast version also messed up?); the second, a litany of attacks on Joe Garcia (and the production values are weak here, too). Meanwhile, Garcia has a much better ad hitting Rivera for the infamous "ramming a truck off the road" incident
    • IL-10: Bob Dold! thinks that Dan Seals is a job killer
    • ME-02: Fuck, these veteran ads always make me well up a bit. Another good one on VA health clinics, from Mike Michaud (his first in four years)
    • OH-09: Rich Iott attacks Marcy Kaptur as a "liar" for a supposedly misleading ad (I think this is it) and brings up the 11% unemployment rate in Toledo

    Independent Expenditures:

    • Concerned Taxpayers: $92K for GOPer Art Robinson (OR-04) and $47K against Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
    • FIRST!... Amendment Alliance: $117K against Harry Reid (NV-Sen) (Topic: The First Amendment Alliance doesn't care about the first amendment or alliances. Discuss)
    • Realtors: $1.3 million spread among Bill Foster (IL-14), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Ken Calvert (CA-44), and Dave Reichert (WA-08), including polls
    • Revere America: George Pataki's band of fuckwits is spending over $400K on ads against Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) and over $350K against John Hall (NY-19) (note second buy was made 9/17 but report filed 9/30 in violation of FEC rules)
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/1 (Morning Edition)
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    So, does it even matter how much candidates raise anymore
    now that any shadowy "independent" group can just drop hundreds of thousands of dollars on their race of choice without any transparency whatsoever?

    Whitman is toast!
    http://www.google.com/hostedne...

    After a couple of days of saying that they didn't know about their housekeeper being an illegal immigrant, even saying that she would take a polygraph to prove it and that her housekeeper probably stole the letters, out it comes that there is proof that her husband did know.

    "Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman says her husband might have seen a 2003 letter warning that their housekeeper's government records weren't in order."

    Oppps............  


    Not going to work
    This simply isn't going to go over well with the Latina/o population. You blame the housekeeper for steeling the letter, but it turns out to be untrue.

    [ Parent ]
    I imagine it hurts with her own base too


    [ Parent ]
    Right...
    You are right about that. So it hits from both sides. Hard to imagine her getting out of this one.

    [ Parent ]
    Couldn't be worse timing
    As First Read points out this is incredibly bad timing for Whitman. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

    "*** Couldn't be worse timing: This is all coming at a horrible time for Whitman. In fact, tomorrow is the Brown-Whitman Univision debate, where this entire story will play a BIG role and where plenty of California Latinos will be watching. This is already a three-day story. Will we still be talking about this on Monday? If so, that's a problem for the Whitman campaign. One other thing worth noting: This story has been driven by TV more than print."


    [ Parent ]
    My best Nelson Muntz imitation (from the Simpsons)
    Ha-ha!  

    [ Parent ]
    IL-GOV - Pat Quinn in the Lead?!
    I don't take the lead at face value, but big movement towards Quinn has been confirmed by about three polls now.  He might just win this thing.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Small Brady lead now I think
    Since this was the closest poll last time when others were still showing a bigger gap. But certainly Quinn has momentum.

    [ Parent ]
    I noticed
    What I noticed there was more that Brady's numbers were dropping, but Quinn's were not going up.  I don't know if it's a case of him losing support as people find out where he stands on the issues or if it's just about how hard some pollers push leaners.  Quinn's the incumbent, though, and having numbers below 40 in most polls can't be good.  I still see Brady winning it; the only question to me is how this affects Sexy Lexi.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Quinn went up 7 in this poll
    And 5 in the latest PPP.

    [ Parent ]
    FL-GOV - Also confirmed by three polls
    is big movement (and a lead) for Rick Scott.  Barf!

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Guessing
    those ads tying Alex Sink to Obama and Florida's pension fund problems are working.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    More the latter
    combined with Sink's very conservative, "high road" campaign so far.  Now she has to play from behind and go negative.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    odd
    When your opponent is as objectively sketchy as Scott, you have to go negative. Maybe Sink thinks it's better to hold off until late, but aren't you usually better off going negative early to set the narrative right away?

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Limited funds
    Same situation as CA only a far less Democratic electorate. Then again you would think Scott's skeletons would hurt him more than seems to be the case.

    [ Parent ]
    NRCC goes for the kill on Grayson
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    I really have a feeling that Grayson's recent ads are going to come back to hurt him and this ad tries to do just that.


    But he has a spine!
    Sigh. You know if Feingold had as much overt cheerleading behind him from some quarters, particularly with regard to funding, he may not be in so much trouble. Same goes for several House Dems I can think of that would be more deserving of adulation and support than Grayson.

    [ Parent ]
    it only became clear now
    That the man also has no conscious so give people a little bit of a break.

    [ Parent ]
    Have never been a fan going back to 2008


    [ Parent ]
    I see where Andrew is coming from...
    I knew Grayson was over the top, but that never bothered me until he started outright lying and sliming his opponent in the same way that bothers me when Republicans do it.

    But I totally agree with you about supporting Feingold (or anyone else) over Grayson.  


    [ Parent ]
    Kos
    He and Kos have this man-crush thing going.  I'm convinced that his 'Taliban' ad was really directed more at Kos than anybody else.  Like, 'Dude!  I'm so cool, I'm using your phrase!  Isn't that rad?'

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Kos doesn't need me to defend him
    But he has been a strong voice for progressive causes and progressive candidates that have acted ethically over the years. The Grayson situation is a bit inexplicable to me (and Jed Lewison's tortured defense of the Taliban ad was just embarassing), but I can grant the man one slip up in an otherwise pretty good record.

    Kos post on Rand Paul have been terrific, btw.  


    [ Parent ]
    Kos
    Not knocking Kox.  DailyKos does a much better job of organizing the left than RedState does the right.  My post was more about Grayson sucking up to him and DK showering him with (unneeded) money.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Buh bye Alan.
    Running for and serving in Congress is a spoiled rich man's game to him.  I never root for a Republican victory, but if Webster wins it sets up reasonably well for us because Webster is VERY beatable in 2012.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Yet he is quite happy to raise
    And spend other peoples money. It sickens me.

    [ Parent ]
    But
    Grayson is a prime example of a Congressman who represents someone other than his Congressional district.

    If we elected members of Congress to represent specific interest groups or ideology, Grayson would do well.  


    [ Parent ]
    He would need a D+5 seat at minimum


    [ Parent ]
    Or election by parties, not by districts
    When party itself distributes some way a number of seats it won between it's candidates. In such case (which encourages "party faithful") Gayson would surely win.

    [ Parent ]
    I was about to suggest that!
    Grayson would be perfect in a European style proportional representation parliament where people vote for national parties, not individual district candidates.

    And of course, in that kind of system, ConservaDems and moderate GOPers would really be a thing of the past...

    But I don't see Americans wanting to give up local representation for this any time soon.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, that's also my pet peeve...
    And it wouldn't be fair for me to bash GOPers like Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle and Rand Paul over it,  but not Alan Grayson. Perhaps if I heard more about him providing great constituent service I'd be more forgiving, but all I see from him is his DKos diaries and ActBlue page flush with cash.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Redistricting can work for both Webster and Grayson
    Even if Scott wins and the GOP controls the trifecta, it would be wise for them to draw all the Democrats in central Florida into one safe district, and shore up all the Republicans in the area. This would give Grayson a liberal Orlando-based district to try a comeback in and would give Webster a suburban seat with a more pronounced GOP lean. If Sink wins, we will almost certainly see something like this as a compromise (remember, if Kosmas and Grayson go down, Republicans will have all the Central Florida seats so getting a new safe-D seat in Orlando will be a good deal for the Dems.)

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Ga
    And that's why I hate gerrymandering.  I'd rather see a bunch of swing districts, frankly.  I think that's what the House should be set up to reflect.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    The current districts are a Gerrymander
    Orlando should have a district that represents it, rather than being partitioned in three pieces, even if that means fewer swing seats.  (They only became swingy recently, they were drawn to by safe R)

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    This is the type of ad...
    That Dems should be running against Bachmann, Foxx, King and the like.  

    [ Parent ]
    Grayson
    Grayson is a prime example of someone who woke up a sleeping giant. He had a huge money advantage on Webster and had a 50/50 shot at winning but based on having to go over the top and calling Webster a Taliban and Breitbarting the video he woke up Webster's fundraising. I'm never a fan of loudmouths like Michelle Bachmann (only 2 more years of her and hopefully she will be done away with via redistricting) and Steve King (sadly here to stay) so I will take the same approach with him even though I may agree with more of what he says.

    If Grayson would have made the issue about Webster's very strong social conservatism it would have helped. Talking about him proposing a convent marriage amendment, opposing abortion even with rape/incest, etc. would have not hurt him. Making Webster a Taliban like figure caused moderates to shift away from him and brought up his negatives a lot. I think that Grayson likes the attention so all of the backlash he is probably welcoming.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    [ Parent ]
    I like this fake Grayson ad a lot better
    Townhall.com put this out as a joke.

    Even though it was meant as a gag I think it actually works as a more effective Grayson attack ad than the NRCC's ad.

    It gets to the heart of Grayson's inflamatory comments while mocking him with the same editing tecniques he used on Webster.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Dang
    I still believe Specter would have done better so far, had he been the Democratic nominee. Sestak is just not a good campaigner. I like fiery populists, but Sestak just comes off as angry. Reminds me of Conway.

    Which, who knows, maybe the Democrats will win one or both seats, but it doesn't look too good.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm very reluctant to base
    Anything on Rasmussen entirely. I don't really see Sestak as a bad campaigner as such as one who is leaving it late again. I also think Specter would be doing better had there been no primary. Obviously once it happened he was damaged goods.

    [ Parent ]
    Ok
    I'm not basing anything exclusively on Rasmussen, so I'm in agreement there.

    [ Parent ]
    The implicit assumption
    I think the assumption with Sestak is that he believes in the Erwin Rommel school of campaigning --

    with the thought that a blitzkreig is most effective against fixed fortifications.

    It happened and worked against Specter. The hope and I believe the assumption is that it will happen against Toomey. But we will see.  


    [ Parent ]
    Which is why it is positive
    That Toomey has never really got over 50. Unlike say Dick Blumenthal.

    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen
    is the race I am most excited to watch for the final two weeks simply because I want to see if it works.  Although I firmly believe letting your opponent take the lead and keep it this close to the election is a great way to discourage donations from the national base and big money donors.

    [ Parent ]
    Precisely.
    Razzy may be the outlier here, or maybe not. It's just never a good idea to put all one's eggs in Razzy's basket.

    And yes, as soon as Sestak jumped in, Specter couldn't cruise control any more.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Primary
    And Sestak would be doing better had Specter remained a Republican and Toomey had to go through a primary against him.

    [ Parent ]
    Also true
    Then again lots of legislation probably wouldn't have passed or would have been even more watered down. But we won't get into that.

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree
    Specter has the combined baggage of being a career politician, a turncoat, and a Democrat--none of which are great things to be in PA this year. Of those, Sestak only has the (D) next to his name. I think the general electorate would have really soured on Specter as "part of the problem" and an "opportunistic party switcher" and whatever else Toomey tried to label him. Sestak, on the other hand, is a fresher face, has a background of many years of service in the Navy, and doesn't have the "sliminess" about him that Specter has. He was definitely the right choice for Democrats from an electoral perspective.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I'll got with yesterday's Susquehana poll
    That had it at 3.  Had just as many likely voters and the pollster did very well in the PA-12 speical.  And doesn't have the flood the zone, control the narrative, agenda that Scotty does.

    [ Parent ]
    Somewhere in the middle
    Toomey up 6 feels right. I just hope there is enough time left on the clock.

    [ Parent ]
    Some democratic candidates for governor are emerging

    I think

    Kitzhaber (OR)
    Denish (NM)
    Quinn(IL)
    Mitchell (ME)
    Barrett(WI)
    Shumlin (VT)
    Strickland (OH)
    Barnes (GA)
    Onorato (PA)

    can win still.  


    More hopeful with regard
    To Strickland, Kitzhaber, Quinn, Mitchell and Shumlin.

    [ Parent ]
    Diane Denish? John Kitzhaber? Roy Barnes?
    Emerging? Really?

    If anything they are trending down.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    Bullish on Kitzhaber
    Lots of voters who might be unlikely to go to a polling place are likely to vote by mail.  And Oregon, trailblazing state that it is, happens to vote entirely by mail.

    I'd really like to know how Barnes is doing on the ground, though.  RuralDem, a penny for your thoughts?


    [ Parent ]
    Some not all

    Some are emerging, but not all what have chance of win are emerging.

    OR-Gov has not recent polls, maybe he improves, the state democratic leaning gives chance for it.

    NM-Gov I think the last poll of the DGA? what show the race in a tie can be a little sign for think Denish begin to emerge again


    [ Parent ]
    shumlin's a bit more complicated
    disclaimer: i was a summer intern for his opponent, Brian Dubie.  while shumlin did better in a recent poll, that was a pol taken after the recount ended, by rasmussen, who pretty much everyone here agrees has a bias for primary winners at first.  Nate Silver has shumlin as a slight favorite, but .71 of that (of 1.0 if i'm understanding his methods correctly) is based on the aforementioned rassy poll.  good methods, but not enough data.

    the thing is, the race has gotten REALLY nasty, especially since shumlin brought up the idea of reducing corrections costs to pay for his proposal of universal pre-K.

    http://www.burlingtonfreepress...

    this has lead to several ads by Dubie and the republicans attacking shumlin for "trying to let pornographers and pedophiles into the street" (Which his plan DOES NOT).

    http://www.7dvt.com/2010fear-f... (can't find a link to the ad, sorry)

    Another problem is the attacks the RGA is going after Shumlin for trustworthiness issues.

    http://www.burlingtonfreepress...

    I'm still trying to figure out why shumlin brought up corrections to begin with.  it's an issue that's usually only winnable by being as tough on crime as possible.  regardless of the merits of such a plan, it's not usually politically feasible.  though it did shift the debate from the economy to corrections, but i'm not sure if that's a good thing for shumlin.  he's either crazy, or crazy like a fox.

    I am not going to discuss Dubie, simply because i do not think i could be objective.  I hope i was objective with shumlin (aside from not mentioning Dubie ofc) and if not, I apologize.


    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


    [ Parent ]
    Even in a case like this

    I promis use not the Rasmussen polls.

    But I'm cautiously optimistic.

    I think the democratic nominee can keep the effect of be the primary winner in a state like Vermont with an important leftist leaning. The victory in the primaries for governor is the highest level victory in the political career of P Shumlin. This gives him a plus.


    [ Parent ]
    Don't vote for Roy Blunt
    Cuz he's really good at bringing money back to the state. Both boring and does not really work.  

    AK-Sen: An excuse to demand a copy of Miller's Tax Returns?
    Not sure about the framing, but I'm thinking that McAdams can use this Yale/Hunting License bit to demand that Miller release his tax returns

    -- for his years at Yale, for the year when he got that indigent hunting license, and all of the years in-between...


    OH-13 (un)sexy time
    Not a good day for Tom Ganley.

    A 39-year-old Cleveland woman sued auto dealer and Republican congressional candidate Tom Ganley on Thursday, accusing him of sexually assaulting her in his office last year.. . .

    His accuser said she attended a Cleveland Tea Party rally where Ganley spoke on July 3, 2009, when he was a candidate for the U.S. Senate, before he decided to run for Congress. Impressed by Ganley's anti-abortion platform, the lawsuit says, the woman approached him, introduced herself and her children and offered to volunteer on his campaign.

    The woman then visited Ganley's Chevrolet dealership on Lorain Avenue in Cleveland three times during the following weeks, to discuss volunteer campaign duties and a reduction in the interest rate on a car loan she received from a Ganley dealership, the lawsuit says.

    Ganley talked during the meetings about fixing her van for free, reducing her interest rate and giving her a job at a dealership, according to the suit.

    In their second meeting, Ganley told the woman that he and his wife lead separate lives and live on opposite sides of their home, the suit says. In each of the meetings, the suit says, Ganley pressed her about what she does for "fun."
    On her last visit to Ganley's office, Aug. 1, the woman said she dropped off her van for repairs. While she waited in Ganley's office, the suit says, he made sexually suggestive comments and invited her to join him and his friends at a condominium he owns in Strongsville. Ganley gave her a $100 bill and told her to buy some lingerie and high-heeled shoes, according to the lawsuit.

    Ganley told her he wanted her to dominate her, parade her on a leash and have sex with her in front of his "play friends," the suit says. It accuses him of grabbing her from behind, wrapping his arms around her, kissing her and, despite her resistance, reaching into her pants.



    Reminiscent of the movie
    Eyes Wide Shut.

    Hopefully this takes the pressure off Sutton and the DCCC can recommit its funds to other races.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    lol
    Yes - though without the whole necrophilia/kissing the dead woman thing.  Didn't this guy learn anything from former Gov. Ryan in Illinois?

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    And just yesterday SSP moved this race to tossup. ; )


    [ Parent ]
    Hey Republicans, this is why "professional politcians"
    may not be such a bad thing - they are usually vetted!  

    [ Parent ]
    Shakeup in MA-Gov
    Tim Cahill, the former Democrat/Conservative Indy running in the 3-way is losing his rnuningmate.  He's endorsing the Republican Charlie Baker.  I figured the news would be CAHILL is dropping out (he's being pressured to from various places), but just the runningmate at this point.

    Fun new McAdams Ad!

    He has to hope sniping between Murkowski and Miller turn off enough voters, but with a month to go, I don't know if that would be enough time.  


    Anyone
    catch Ted Stevens reference towards the end of the ad?

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    WOW
    And a tasteful nod to Sen. Stevens.  If you can make a tasteful nod to a departed Senator of the opposite party using a wacky tie (?!?!?!), you should be a U.S. Senator.

    [ Parent ]
    and the more I think about it
    I'd feel just a bit slighted if I were Sen. Begich.  "We used to have a Senator like that..." It's not like Lisa or Joe beat Stevens.  Hopefully no one is diving that deep into it though.

    [ Parent ]
    I can see that...
    But Begich is a freshman senator, who can't be expected to build up any pork pull yet.  Besides Begich probably doesn't care as he was McAdams earliest political backer and lent McAdams a lot of his campaign staffers.  

    McAdams is running against Miller almost exclusively.  Miller wants to kick the federal government out of Alaska, McAdams wants to ensure Alaska gets it's "fair share".

    McAdams will not run against Murkowski because he'll need her supporters if she can't get any footing with her write in campaign.  Also I think McAdams would want Murkowski to win if he cannot, so he doesn't want to help Miller win by taking shots at Lisa.  


    [ Parent ]
    fair enough
    Which is why I said "*bit*".  But then I'd say for the people who want seniority, stick with Lisa.  It's a difficult dance.  I only wish I was still there to watch it from the front row.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree.
    But McAdams is banking on Murkowski not being able to catch on with her write in.  If she does, it likely means he's running 3rd and I suspect (though we shouldn't discuss this now) that he'd throw his support to Murkowski if that was the case late in the campaign.  

    So assuming Murkowski can't get write-in footing, Alaskans have to decide if they want to build seniority with McAdams or with Miller going forward.  


    [ Parent ]
    No you wouldn't, and no he doesn't. This is respect for a man who just lost his life......
    Stevens just died tragically in a plane crash.  
    That's what the "nod to Stevens" is about, it's a way of saying, "Godspeed, Ted, we miss you."

    The nod to Stevens is classy, and I bet Begich agrees.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    Plus, McAdams' campaign is essentially being run by Begich's people.

    Mark is totally fine with this.


    [ Parent ]
    wow
    cute, funny and a subtle, but not overpowering nod to stevens.  I could honestly see this being one of those races where two candidates nuke each other and he runs a positive (or most positive) campaign and wins by being the least evil.  I like it.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    HOLY FUCK! THAT'S GOOD!
    I read the comments before watching the video, and was thinking "what he wears a Hulk tie?" But, no, that is quite  . . . tasteful, thoughtful, powerful. I want a new poll of Alaska in 1 week with McAdams on the air and Murkowski nuking Miller. McAdam's path is to go forward focusing on himself and Alaska while Miller and Murkowski nuke each other (see VA-GOV 2009)

    This is gonna be good.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


    [ Parent ]
    Very impressive.


    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    Excellent ad
    Others have pointed out the "fair share" reference and the nod to Uncle Ted, but I just wanted to note that Scott's final choice is the bolo tie, which is quite fashionable in Alaska.  I was at a wedding there earlier this year and while I saw a few bolos, nobody in the crowd of 50-60 wore a traditional necktie, most Alaskans not being big on formalwear in general.  (Also, he might have been trying to draw a subtle contrast with the impeccably dressed lawyer, Joe Miller.)

    [ Parent ]
    Great ad. Scott is making the most of the opportunity, I hope he is rewarded for it. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Wow
    What a charming ad campaign he's got going.

    [ Parent ]
    This guy's ads are terrific!
    They are funny and just ooze authenticity out of every pore. I don't know whether this guy can win statewide in Alaska, but he seems to be a really talented politician and his ad agency is great!

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Wide generation gap

    The poll showed that voters aged 18 to 29 favored Democrats by 55 percent to 36 percent over Republicans in September, a 19-point Democratic advantage. The Democratic advantage in September is up from just a 9-point margin in August.

    In contrast, Republicans have a 12-point advantage among seniors, with 52 percent of voters 65 and older favoring the GOP compared to 40 percent that favor the Democrats. The 12-point Republican advantage is unchanged from the previous month.

    Meanwhile, voters aged 50 to 64 were split between Democrats and Republicans, while Republicans have a slim 2-point advantage among voters aged 30 to 49.

    http://www.rttnews.com/Content...


    Encouraging surge in support
    From young voters.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, now if they'd only vote!


    [ Parent ]
    Link
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/143...

    Strange slip with Hispanics with improvement with Whites and African-Americans coming home.


    [ Parent ]
    Data from the link
    Big sample size, though over a relatively long period of time.

    Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Sept. 2-26, 2010, with a random sample of 8,773 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.


    [ Parent ]
    Could be failure to pass anything on immigration
    Or it just could be statistical noise because of the relatively small sample.

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder if Hispanics are more reluctant to answer the phones now
    which leads to polling issues akin to those of Japanese ancestry in Hawaii

    [ Parent ]
    Perhaps
    It does seem odd coupled with improving fortunes across all the other demographics.

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder if there is a general "shy tory" effect amongst dems right now... n/t


    [ Parent ]
    People of color are always harder to poll......
    There are a variety of reasons for it.

    Some of it is socioeconomic, where black and Hispanics are much poorer on average than whites and Asians.  Poorer people are less likely to have home phones, or even a stable residence in which to have a phone.  This is aggravated today by the proliferation of cell phones, which makes a landline an unnecessary expense if you're tight on money, and cell phone sampling is just plain harder and comes with unique complications that don't exist with landlines.

    Some of it is a culture gap, as Hispanics and Asians and some others have a far higher percentage of immigrants, even among "likely voters," than whites and black Americans; that culture gap can include a language barrier, but it can be other things, like unfamiliarity with the notion of being polled and therefore being unwilling or uninterested or even fearful of participating.

    And some of it is that poorer people and immigrants, even those who vote, are, simply from lack of interest, less engaged politically on average than others, which results in higher hang-up rates and greater difficulty in getting representative samples.

    No I don't have a study to prove any of this.  This is all my own observation of politics over a lifetime and being myself a man of color who grew up in an immigrant household and am familiar anecdotally and through shared observations with other people of color on what happens with us in America.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Not strange...
    I've been saying for months that Hispanics are still way too swingy to be considered a reliable demographic.  I don't know what more needs to be done for Hispanics to understand that republicans hate them with a passion, but they really want to find excuses to vote GOP.  It makes little sense.

    [ Parent ]
    That's just not remotely true, the data refutes you completely......
    Hispanics always have voted reliably Democratic by anywhere from 60-40 to 70-30 margins, depending on the election.  They have more voting elasticity than black voters, yes, but they're solidly Democratic nonetheless.

    Dubya bent over backward to earn Hispanic votes and still lost the Hispanic vote 58-40 per reliable revised 2004 exit poll analysis.  (He supposedly lost a more narrow 54-44 per the national exit poll but that was refuted later by comparisons of national data with state-by-state exit poll data, with state-level exit polls proving more accurate.)

    The notion that they "want" to vote Republican is absurd.  There are enough socially conservative Hispanics that Republicans can count on 30% of them all the time, but beyond that Hispanics in the other 70% clearly either lean left or are at least to the left of the increasingly rightward GOP.  Hispanic voting is not all about Republican immigrant-bashing and immigration reform as an issue, those are overstated by political analysts who don't know much about the politics of communities of color.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Then why has the margin shrunk to 13 points?
    According to Gallup?  We're not getting anything close to 60-40 this time around...  Current numbers are 51-38 and dropping by the day.  According to Gallup, they aren't going to undecided but the GOP camp.

    The numbers are quite disturbing...


    [ Parent ]
    Not really
    Here's what it looked like for the period they show:

    +33, +23, +28, +32, +32, +24, +13

    It dropped one month, rose up two months, stayed the same another month, and dropped again twice. Based on that, I could argue that it's going to jump back up again just in time for the midterm (and I'd have just as much evidence as you have for your "it's dropping by the day!!!" claim).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Building on DGM's reply, a couple things......
    First, Gallup has a LOT of random noise in its polling.  It's volatile generic ballot topline is widely discussed, and even Obama's job approval daily track has had weird spikes and drops.  I remember in August they once had him drop in less than a week's time from close to even all the way down to 41-52, and 6 days later he was positive at 48-45.  Nothing happened in politics or in the news to cause that.

    Second, polling Hispanics is harder than polling other demographics, because there are complications that go with polling people of color and polling voting communities with large numbers of immigrants, and with Hispanics both issues are there.  So there can be erratic results because of those issues.

    That drop in Gallup is not relevant unless they show a real trend over time, which they do NOT.  And even then there has to be corroboration by others.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    That
    didn't take long. Lisa Murkowski released an radio ad attacking Joe Miller for his "Measuring the drapes" tweet.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    "The name on the door..."
    Very clever. I guess there is an outside chance they could nuke each other here letting McAdams slip through the middle but I remain skeptical.

    [ Parent ]
    MA-Gov: Cahill's running-mate drops out, endorses Baker
    I'm Chet Edwards, and I will DROWN YOU IN ADS

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    Not a bad one though, Chet's ads have been unnaturally direct this year. This one uses a surrogate VERY effectively. Might be his opening to turn this race around.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


    CT-Sen: New McMahon ad targets Hispanic vote
    CO-Gov: There IS word on the size of the buy for the Dan Maes ad.
    It's $30K and is to be aired in Denver, Colorado Springs, and Grand Junction.
    http://www.coloradopols.com/di...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!



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