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SSP Daily Digest: 9/30 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 8:10 AM EDT


  • Fundraising: Today is the last day of the fundraising quarter, so now is a good time to donate to any Dems you like out there. Decisions on whom to help will be made in the final weeks of the election season based in part on who shows fundraising strength in this final quarter.
  • AK-Sen: It's not small - no no no. Republican Joe Miller has failed to file a personal finance disclosure with the Senate, something any candidate who raises or spends more than $5,000 is required to do within 30 days by law. Miller's been out of compliance with the law since at least April. The penalty? Up to $50,000. Politico caught up with Miller at a fancy DC fundraiser, but he refused to answer any questions about the issue.
  • Meanwhile, Dem Scott McAdams sends out a fundraising ask via email in response to word that the Tea Party Express will be pouring resources into the state to finish the job they started. McAdams reminds us of something we've been saying all along: "In some Alaskan towns it costs only $30 to run a radio ad and $200 for a TV spot." So if you still have some spare change to give, he still needs your help - and it will indeed make a difference, no matter how much you can afford to give.

  • PA-Sen, PA-07, PA-08: VoteVets is launching a half-million dollar canvassing effort on behalf of Joe Sestak, who of course is one of them. They'll also be helping out another pair of veterans, Bryan Lentz and Patrick Murphy.
  • FL-Gov: Man, dejected gubernatorial loser Bill McCollum is serving up the cat fud personally, on a fucking silver platter. Rick Scott's been hitting Alex Sink on the airwaves over her alleged mismanagement of the state's investments while serving as Chief Financial Officer. But at a recent public meeting of the board of trustees of Florida's pension funds, McCollum made sure to repeatedly question a top administrator about the soundness of the funds - and was assured they were. It's like he's fact-checking and doing p.r. for Sink all at once! Someone hire this guy!
  • NY-Gov: Here's something that's no surprise: Carl Paladino was awarded the Conservative Party's ballot line. Here's something else that's no surprise: He's a motherfucking spazz who can't control his temper - even around reporters, even on camera. The video is fuzzy and the sound quality poor, but watch Paladino get into it with conservative New York Post political columnist Fred Dicker. The most amusing thing is that Paladino seems to think Dicker, who, uh, as I said, works for the Post, is a Cuomo plant.
  • AL-05: This parsing almost reaches Clintonian levels: Dem Steve Raby has been hammering Mo Brooks for opposing earmarks, thanks to some teabagger pledge that Brooks signed. This is not a popular position in Alabama, and Brooks had his name removed from the group's website - but claimed he was only opposing pork, not earmarks. Someone buy this poor fucker a thesaurus, stat!
  • AZ-05: Harry Mitchell's got a poll out from Bennett, Petts & Normington, showing him up 43-40 over David Schweikert.
  • LA-03: In the very last primary of the year, coming up this Saturday, a survey by a robopollster called ElectPoll shows Jeff Landry crushing fellow Republican Hunt Downer, 66-34. Can't say I'm too surprised, given that Landry missed avoiding a runoff by less than 200 votes. I doubt Downer made the right choice by continuing the fight. Meanwhile, Ravi Sangisetty becomes the latest anti-Pelosi Dem, saying he wouldn't vote to keep her as Speaker of the House. Somehow I doubt he'll have the chance to vote on that issue one way or another.
  • NM-01: So classic - another anti-government spending Republican who has embraced government spending for himself. It's really no different than the teabaggers who declare "Hands off my Medicare!" Anyhow, Jon Barela is the latest offender. His film production company has received cash assistance from taxpayers thanks to a special New Mexico rebate program designed to encourage movie-making in the state.
  • NY-20: Always gotta be careful not to read too much into stories about staff departures, but this is awfully late in the game to be losing your campaign manager - which just happened to Republican Chris Gibson. One red flag: That they didn't have someone lined up to replace Patrick Ziegler, who was supposedly recruited by the RNC to help with broader election efforts in the Hudson Valley. Another: Ziegler had almost no political experience and apparently was overwhelmed by the job. And finally: Ziegler himself has sought the GOP nomination, but dropped out of the race in March. A week later, he was hired by none other than Gibson. So perhaps this was not quite a match made in heaven in the first place.
  • OH-18: SEIU is sending out a mailer attacking Dem Zack Space, who flip-flopped and voted against healthcare reform in the end. No word on how much they're spending, though it seems to me that this fight really should have happened during the primaries. I mean, would they really prefer Bob Gibbs?
  • PA-06: A nice get for Manan Trivedi: He secured the endorsement of the Sierra Club, one of those groups which likes to back "moderate" Republicans to bolster their supposed bi-partisan cred. While they haven't backed Jim Gerlach in recent years, they haven't supported his opponents, either, so it's good to see them take the right side this time.
  • VA-02: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, typically friend to Republicans the world over, endorsed Democrat Glenn Nye. Somehow I don't think it'll stop the attacks that he's a libruhl who votes with Nancy Pelosi 743% of the time.
  • NRSC: Aaron Blake says Tom Coburn's going to give $1 million to the NRSC.
  • NRCC: Meanwhile, John Boehner just gave $1 million more to the NRCC, and supposedly succeeded in getting $4 million more in pledges from his buddies.
  • NRA: We are most definitively done with the NRA whip count, which got boring long ago. If you really want to keep checking up on it, keep this link handy.
  • SSP TV:

    • AR-02: Dem Joyce Elliott touts her non-DC background as a teacher, and links herself to still-popular Gov. Mike Beebe
    • NC-02: Renee Ellmers accuses Bob Etheridge of cutting half a trillion from Medicare to pay for "Obamacare"
    • NM-02: Harry Teague attacks Steve Pearce for being pro-shipping-jobs-to-India
    • SC-02: Rob Miller's campaign asks people how they know Rep. Joe Wilson has "gone Washington," but apparently folks need the help of a poster to answer
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/30 (Morning Edition)
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    MA-Gov
    Slightly larger margin for Patrick than last time.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


    This is Patrick's best poll yet, and yet the political media and even perhaps the GOP continue to fail to notice......
    Patrick at 47 and up 5 even with Cahill down in mid-single digits?

    Patrick is going to win.

    His favorables in this poll are up to a healthy and best-ever 55-43, and his job approval at 48-51 which is great for an incumbent Dem Gov in 2010 and plenty good enough to win a 3-way even with Cahill down where he is.  Obama's job approval is 54-45, so no drag there.

    This reflects the same trend the totality of polling has been showing for awhile.

    And yet the RGA keeps attacking Cahill thinking THAT'S their path to victory, and the political media continue ignoring the remarkable recovery of Patrick in this race.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    He isn't as unpopular as Corzine, MA is not NJ and he is running a better campaign that Coakley.

    [ Parent ]
    Patrick will probably win
    But i am still not convinced that he would win without Cahill in the race

    [ Parent ]
    If you had told me this time last year
    That Deval Patrick would have 55% favorables and that I would have a Republican Senator, I might have believed you about Scott Brown first. Patrick's recovery has been amazing--it's a good model for other governors: stay out of the news.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Q poll: Rubio by 13
    http://www.cfnews13.com/articl...

    46-33-18.

    Given that Q seems to be having trouble locating likely Democratic voters, expect their governor poll tomorrow(?) to show Scott ahead.


    Looks to me like Scott
    Has probably moved back ahead slightly. I'd like to see PPP's take though considering the Mason-Dixon Sink lead is barely over a week old.

    [ Parent ]
    Taegan Goddard at Political Wire wrongly characterized this poll...
    ...by saying yesterday's Rasmussen and CNN/Time polls "essentially mirror" this one.

    That's not true at all.  This Q-poll is much worse for us, whether you want Crist or Meek to win.  There's a HUGE difference between Rubio at 46 vs. Rubio in the low 40s.  If the Q-poll is right, then it's game over, Rubio has won for sure.  If Rubio remains in the low 40s, it's still a contest, even though Rubio clearly still is favored.

    This Q-poll's internals show Rubio consolidating Rs into the 80s, and still getting 40% of indies.  Meek is at a pitiful 12 with indies and still losing Dems to Crist by 3 points.

    I still think the Specter-style attacks on Crist will drag Crist down with Dems and eventually put Meek in 2nd.  But if Q is right, game over, doesn't matter.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Looks like a 45-30-25 race to me


    [ Parent ]
    NM-02: what's interesting about that new Teague ad is...
    ...it refers repeatedly to "Congressman" Steve Pearce.

    Just another example of this being an anti-establishment year.  Teague is smartly reinforcing that Pearce is a consummate insider and the very recent incumbent in this seat, not a true challenger who would be any different.

    I could be wrong, but I have a gut feeling Teague is going to end up surviving.  He's a good fit for the district and is running a great campaign with great ads, both positive and negative.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Yes, you see it with Annie Kuster also...
    all her ads emphasize "Congressman Bass."

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks, that makes 3! (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    MI-7 also refers to Walberg as an ex-Congressman
    I think they're Independent Expenditure ads, but I've seen them several times.  The ads talk about his horrible position on jobs, then conclude with how he was fired/given a pink slip in 2008, and how we need to be sure he gets the message this time.

    [ Parent ]
    And two makes a trend, Steve Driehaus takes same tack in attack ad in OH-01 (link)......
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I'd say Teague has a good 45% chance of survival
    NM-02 is still a heavily Republican district and it's still a bad year to be a Democrat, but he's also done everything right in his campaign, his positive ads have been good at portraying him as a workhorse for the district and his negative ads against Pearce have been to the point about him being an insider.

    Like I say, I'd give Pearce a slightly better chance of winning this thing than Teague right now, but Teague is definitely the type who can survive a year like this in a district like his.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Teague
    I think that you are right about the 45% chance for Teague. This is a race where neither side has more than a 55% chance. The key is the Latino vote and how much they get out to vote (I did my part and called my grandparents yesterday and told them to start rounding up people to start committing to vote). Martinez on the ticket certainly helps her blunt some of the Latino vote but I don't see much of her Latino support bleeding much into an "all out Republican vote". Obviously a lot of Latinos are ticked off about the SB 1070 but how much they vote is going to be key. I saw somewhere that Teague has about 20% of McCain voters which is about what he is going to need to survive at the minimum. Denish is definitely not going to be able to inspire Latinos to the polls the way Richardson might have in the past so whatever ground game Teague has that targets Latinos voters especially in Dona Ana County who normally would sit out the race to not sit out is going to make or break him.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    I think Teague holds onto that 20%
    And the Latino vote is definitely going to be important (it almost always is in New Mexico) but one big thing to look at are Lea and Chaves counties. Since Pearce is also from Hobbs, repeating his performance from 2008 there is going to be next to impossible, but if he can keep from losing Lea by more than 25 and keep Chaves below 20, then Teague should win.

    Las Cruces, of course, is going to be critical for Teague, but stopping a total blowout in the southeast is also really important.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Is there a chance that Martinez could unwittingly help Teague and hurt Pearce, because of...
    ...elevated Hispanic turnout for a Hispanic Governor?

    That she's a Republican, and that the state already has a sitting 2-term Hispanic Governor, would mitgate against it, I understand that.

    But still could ethnic pride be a factor, especially since Hispanics as a whole are more open to Republicans than black voters and some other groups?

    I would think if Martinez drums up Hispanic turnout, intentionally or not, that elevated turnout ends up splitting the ticket and voting for Teague.

    I've wondered about this same thing for Nevada, whether Sandoval as the state's first Hispanic Governor would, purposesly or not, drive up Hispanic turnout only to see those extra voters split their tickets and pick Harry Reid and downballot Dems.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Maybe, but unlike Nevada, NM has had plenty of Hispanic governors
    Electing Hispanics statewide is relatively common, so I'm not sure how much of a difference Martinez will make to Hispanic turnout (though there will probably be some).

    But you are right about any new turnout among Hispanics by Martinez probably hurting Pearce, he's rabidly anti-immigrant (though, unfortunately, that only helps him among whites outside of Las Cruces, and even some in Cruces).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    New Mexico has had Hispanic governors since long before there was a United States of America!

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    OH-18
    The SEIU has been pushing the "Skip a Space" campaign, in an effort to defeat Zack Space over his "no" vote on health care reform.  I think that it is absolutely insidious of a democratic-leaning union organization to be pulling this crap in the general election in a year in which the House is up for grabs and we need every seat we can get.  It also makes no sense.  If Space is defeated, you get a republican that will never vote for you on anything.  

    The SEIU here is essentially taking the FireDogLake approach, you're not a 100% progressive, so we don't like you.  Hey knuckleheads, OH-18 is R+7 and voted 53-46 for McCain!!  You're not going to get Dennis Kucinich or Russ Feingold out of here.  

    Absolutely freaking ridiculous.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    Agree, I've lost a lot of respect for the SEIU this year......
    HCR passed, it's the law, now let it go and get your favored party's back!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Does Space have any shot?
    Or is it a case of Space was going to lose, so the SEIU is going to bury him completely to send a message without actually costing anybody their seat?

    [ Parent ]
    Space is still favored, and in fact I get the impression that Sutton is more endangered...
    ...than Space.

    Space has been one lucky sonofabitch.  He was already going to be the Dem nominee when Bob Ney imploded.  Then the GOP replacement proved a disaster, and Space waltzed into office.  Then the GOP could not offer a serious challenge last time.  And now for whatever reason Space, while definitely vulnerable and it would be no huge shock if he went down, is still in better shape than at least 3 and perhaps 4 (if you think Sutton is in more trouble than him) of his Ohio Dem colleagues.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I think Space would fall first
    More conservative district, no union help, and he's never faced a strong opponent before. However, Space and Sutton are more periphery targets than primary targets right now, and are probably OK unless Democrats pull out of Ohio. Strickland is making that latter scenario look less likely to happen.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I lived in OH-18 for a few years
    for a district that large, Space does incredible constituency service. I know live in MN-05, which is basically just the city of Minneapolis, and I see or hear from Keith Ellison considerably less.

    Space is a great fit for that district, it's an awful strategy.

    Also, people in that area still hate Bob Ney. Space couldn't have had a better act to follow.


    [ Parent ]
    Unclear
    There hasn't been any recent polling on the race.  And it hasn't made a lot of pundits lists.  I think a lot of people believe that because of Space's financial advantage, he'll win.  But as I say, it's been strangely quiet.

    [ Parent ]
    In this cycle for us, no news is good news......
    In 2006 and 2008, there was a grand total of exactly one seat Republicans lost that had virtually no buzz at all:  NH-01 with Carol Shea-Porter beating Jeb Bradley in '06.

    All the others, by sometime in September there were rumblings that the Republican might be in trouble.

    "Strangely quiet" means Space is in good shape.  Doesn't mean he might not be the next Jeb Bradley after all, but the odds are against it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Not insidious
    That's much too polite. The word you are looking for is "insane". Even the Club for Growth isn't that dumb: they only sabotage their own party in the primaries, not the general election.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    LA-03
    Sangisetty has absolutely correct positions for his district, but to have good chances to win he must have at least 2 additional factors: Cajun's name and not so Republican year. Or - very big scandal about Republican candidate immediately before election plus (again) Cajun's name.

    Rossi is more of a rat
    But another mole pops up again. Did he go dark and return to tv or what?

    [ Parent ]
    I read/heard a campaign analyst commentary that for most of September...
    ...Murray went hard negative on Rossi and Rossi was slow to respond, and THAT'S what caused Murray's recovery.

    It's possible that Rossi is on the air responding now.

    Or, at least as likely, Rasmussen is high.  They are the only ones to have this a dead heat again.  The Pollster.com chart shows the latest "Fox" poll also showing a one-point race, in Murray's favor in that instance, but "Fox" is actually Rasmussen, too.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Haven't seen a pro-Rossi ad here in Portland
    at least nothing that I remember.

    Of course, ads in Portland for WA-Sen are sorta like ads in St. Louis for IL-Sen.

    Nevertheless, Murray's ads have been up almost constantly around here.


    [ Parent ]
    Bonus view -- WA-03
    While I'm thinking about it, Jamie Herrera still doesn't have an ad up around here, and Denny Heck has just gone negative on her, calling her a "typical Olympia politician".

    [ Parent ]
    He seems to be the outlier on OH-Gov
    Hopefully same here. I do now think they either get control of both or neither chamber. No split.

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree on that, I think split is still most likely scenario......
    I still think today we'd lose the House and keep the Senate, and the trendline still supports that although it's moving very slowly in the direction of our keeping both.

    I don't think the GOP can take the Senate.  Angle and O'Donnell have assured that.  And between CT, WV, IL, and WA, I don't think the GOP gets more than 2 on their best day.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    NY-Sen: NY Post endorses DioGuardi
    Wonder
    if they'll endorse Paladino after he threatened to "take out" one of his reporters last night.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Doubt it
    The Post (believe it or not) has been in the tank for Cuomo all along.

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    [ Parent ]
    Yup
    Keep in mind, despite Paladino's efforts to claim otherwise, Cuomo's actually running on a very conservative platform - almost a Christie-esque one. It's why many progressives may well stay home come election day (though Eric Schneiderman provides some incentive). I think DioGuardi will love to tout that the NYPost endorsed a Cuomo/DioGuardi combo.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Progressive should have other reasons
    to come out, including Gillibrand for issues like DADT.

    [ Parent ]
    Or they could vote for Charles Barron
    if they want to send a message.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    IL-Gov: PPP corroborates CNN/Time that race is tightening, in Quinn's favor......
    PPP today has Quinn down 42-35, better than the 9-point margin in August, with Whitney and Cohen combining for 10% and most of the undecideds being Democrats who support Giannoulias and Congressional Dems.  The Whitney/Cohen voters also are mostly Dems.  The Libertarian also was named in the survey and got 2%.  The tightening so far isn't a lot compared to August, when Quinn was down 39-30, but that he's moved up 5 points combined with the partisan lean of undecided/3rd-party voters are the significant facts.

    Brady's favorables are underwater at 36-44, far better than Quinn's awful condition, and yet PPP estimates that this race will still tighten further based on the partisan lean of the undecideds and 3rd-wheel voters.

    If Quinn can just keep it reasonably close, that at least helps prevent him from being a drag on Giannoulias, which is what I REALLY care about.  No offense intended to my SSP brothers and sisters in IL who HAVE to care about the Gov race.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    And yet again I forget the link; here it is......
    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Poll
    Still ugly approval numbers for Quinn.  But he has a lot more room to grow than Brady.

    [ Parent ]
    NY-Gov: Paladino is like a candidate from the Seinfeld opposite episode
    Where George does the opposite of every instinct he has and it works out great for him.

    Paladino is running a campaign based on doing the opposite of what every candidate for public office has ever done. He tells people off, attacks members of his own party, promises to FIRE state workers, calls people crooks, attacks members of the press and answers every questions as bluntly and honestly as he can.

    Yet it is working for him. Paladino's populatiry is because he pulls stunts like this. He's NOT like every other candidate and politician.And in NY in this cycle it might work.

    If it was anyone else I would think something like this would kill them. But with Paladino I think people could see it as telling the establishment media off.

    To keep the Seinfeld episode analogy going it might be like when George went up to the beautiful woman in the dinner and said "Hi, I'm George. I'm unemployed and I live with my parents." He got a date and a job with the Yankees out of the opposite.

    As for Fred Dicker, if you read any of his coloumns you know he is 100% pro-Cuomo.  

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    It worked for Christie, too...
    How he manages positive approval ratings, I don't know...

    [ Parent ]
    Um, no, Christie does not behave like Paladino......
    You can come off as tough and abrasive, and unafraid to stand up to people and institutions, WITHOUT coming off as an asshole with no basic manners.

    That's what Christie does.  I don't recall Christie threatening anyone on camara or engaging in childish name-calling of previous elected officials INCLUDING OF HIS OWN PARTY.

    Paladino comes off as an asshole with no basic manners.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Fred Dicker
    With a name like 'Fred Dicker' the jokes just seem to write themselves.  Yea, I think Carl's crazy act might just work for him.  I mean, it's a long shot but anybody would be a longshot in this race - why not try something totally different just to see if it works?  What do you have to lose - I doubt Crazy Carl cares about his 'reputation' or anything.
    And besides, this is NY - in lots of states, this sort of act wouldn't play at all, but NY is much more rough-and-tumble and Cuomo is the sort that you can get away with acting this way towards.  The voters are mad and they might vote for the mad guy rather than the guy who acts like this is a coronation campaign.  Also, some people can seem to get away with being angry better than others.  And Italian man, yes - a woman acting this way would be labeled a rip-roaring b*tch by everybody.  And a black guy couldn't get away with it either - unless you were and ex-military Rambo-type (hello, Mr. West!)
    I think if he actually won, then it would be quite a mess - not sure what he'd be able to do, but I'm sure it would be interesting.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Mecham
    If Paladino wins, I think it would look a lot like Evan Mecham's partial term as Arizona governor in the late 80s. Like Paladino, Mecham was a very angry outsider with far-right views, questionable ethics, and a demonstrated inability to get along with anyone else.

    Once in office, Mecham alienated just about everyone in both parties almost immediately, getting himself impeached by the legislature barely a year after he took office. At the time he was impeached, a recall election was also scheduled against him.  

    41, Ind, CA-05


    [ Parent ]
    Dont know I I feel about the racial/ethnic aspects of your comments
    But the key here is that Rick Lazio was a sacraficial lamb and Paladino is a wild card.

    The questions is can Paladino's antics force Cuomo to make unforced errors.

    I think you can already see clear changes in Cuomo's campaign strategy. Cuomo was running a coronation campaign based on a center/right governing strategy. Cuomo was talking about taking back Albany from the special interest and Muni the unions and property tax caps.

    That's all gone. Cuomo is now playing to the base. He held a rally with Charlie Rangel in Harlem and is now embracing the establishment elements of Albany to try an energize the downstate base to combat Paladino's upstate momentum.

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    [ Parent ]
    Don't
    I don't mean to sound racial about anything - it's really just a reflection of how the press responds to different characters.  This is, in large part shaped by Hollywood movies and pop culture.  Angry Italian men have been somewhat romanticized - look at all the various Mob movies and TV shows.  With Black Guys, the 'angry' man has a totally different spin which is why Obama has always played it so cool that he comes across as emotionless.  The exception, as I have said, is the black 'Rambo-type' of guy and it's unproven if that is electable in a swing district (which we'll soon find out).
    Carl Palidino is basically a caricature.  I don't know if he's really like that all the time, of if he's just playing things up.  Of course, most Italian people are not like that any more than most black men are 'angry'.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    I think you'll see Paladino remain stagnant from here on out
    Yes, his message is resonating big time with upstate Republicans and Independents, but the excitement basically stops there. He's not making the necessary inroads with Blue Dog Democrats (like, the ones in Gillibrand's fmr. district), and he's in huge trouble downstate, even among Republicans. I think what you're seeing now is that Paladino has coalesced and energized his base (about 37-40% of the vote)...and he has nowhere to go from here. The downstate rank-and-file would've voted Lazio, and they'll vote Cuomo now. Long Island will vote Cuomo by 2-to-1, and he'll be wiped out in NYC. Ultimately, I think Cuomo wins by about a healthy 58-42 margin, or maybe 55-42 when you count in uber-lefty Charles Barron.

    The real race to watch, I think, is the Gillibrand/DioGuardi race. 'Cuz what'll happen is many center-right voters in the NYC suburbs (DioGuardi's base) will vote a Cuomo/DioGuardi ticket...DioGuardi will win Westchester County, and he may well win Long Island and Staten Island too. Couple that with Paladino's strength in Western New York (no one's voting a Paladino/Gillibrand ticket), and you force Gillibrand into running-up margins in the Capital Region (her base) and even bigger ones in NYC. For Gillibrand to win, she needs 70%+ in every New York borough, besides Staten Island. I have this one pegged at a 54-46 Gillibrand victory.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    You have been touting Paladino up and down
    What are you going to do if (and I think when) he gets drubbed?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Touting Paladino?
    Only from the horse race aspect of his candidacy. I just think Paladino makes what would have been a very boring Gov's race interesting to watch.

    Commenting on this kind of stuff and the effects his unorthodox candidacy will have on down ballot races is kind of what we all do here at SSP.

    I do agree with you that the chances are Paladino gets drubbed in November.

    But unlike Lazio who was a sure loser, Paladino has the potential to shake things up.

    As for what I am going to do when Paladino gets drubbed? Other than breath a sigh of relief, chances are I'll just go back to being disappointed in how our Democrats have been running NYS.

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    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, well
    Albany politics are a bipartisan piece of crap. But at least Cuomo has a chance to be competent. And I find it hard to believe New Yorkers would vote for someone so obviously unsuited to the office at Paladino.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    I can believe New Yorkers voting for Paladino
    It's kind of like when your computer is not working and you get so frustrated at it you start to smash it. Smashing it probably wont fix it but it makes you feel a heck of a lot better.

    That's what voting for Paladino is and to be honest with you NYS is so broken that even I am secretly tempted to do it.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Coattails
    I'd been meaning to post this for a while, but with many tight races in states with Gov and Sen on the ballot, can we get a listing of which states list which offices where?  I had heard that in Nevada, it's Senate on top, which obviously benefits the Reids more...but is it Sen, Gov, then House races, or is it all federal then state?  In other states, Governor always leads the pack.  Perhaps we can create a clearinghouse for info on this, by state.

    In Georgia...
    ...it goes U.S. Senate, Governor, other partisan statewide races, U.S. House, State Senate, State House, local partisan races, nonpartisan races, Constitutional amendments.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Massachusetts
    Our ballot goes: Governor, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Auditor, US House, State Senate, State House, Governor's Council, Sheriff, District Attorney, local races, ballot measures. I'm not sure where the U.S. Senate line is, but I'm pretty sure it's after the statewide offices, before U.S. House.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Apportionment update
    This professor claims that EDS used the wrong date in its last projection and that NY will only lose one seat.  Florida will still gain two, but Texas three, not four.  Minnesota will still take a seat from Missouri.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...


    PA-Sen
    People keep talking about Sestak closing late. If that's true, he better hurry the fudge up.

    General question:

    If you're the DSCC and you have to cut back money, where do you pull from?

    -Pennsylvania?
    -Kentucky?
    -New Hampshire?
    -Missouri?
    -California? (on the other end of the spectrum, obviously)


    California without a doubt
    it's the most expensive, and polling has Boxer up by a bunch right now.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Sorry for putting this in the wrong thread
    I'd probably say California too, but I'd always lean towards protecting an incumbent. Boxer losing would be a much bigger "egg on face moment" than, say, Carnahan.

    I'm not sure the polling has really been more favorable in California for the Dems than it has in the other states for the Repubs. though. Maybe very recently.  


    [ Parent ]
    Not a close call, it's California first and foremost to stop the gravy train......
    Boxer AND Brown are rallying and have leads, Boxer's becoming a decent-sized one even though she's not completely out of the woods.  She has the money to compete on her own, she's a seasoned and skill campaigner, and the state has a natural D lean that's asserting itself.

    It's not even close.

    Pennsylvania is a state I don't think they give up on until VERY late.  It's blue enough with enough Dems that a turnaround, even if unexpected, remains plausible well into October.  I bet the DSCC runs ads there at least through the weekend of October 23-24, and likely later.  I think they're cognizant, too, that the party as a whole is tied together there, so that if Onorato is rallying that helps Sestak and others, and individual House Dems need the top of the ballot to hang in there even if not victorious--even though that's not a DSCC priority.

    The other 3 states are in between, and I think Senate race polling is the determinative factor.  All 3 are still competitive, but they've "traded places" in our chances of victory more than once over time, so it's not clear which would be cut first if one HAD to be.  If polling remains stagant for the next 3 weeks, I bet they cut off Carnahan first.  NH is only a couple TV markets even though one is Boston and therefore not TOO expensive, and Kentucky is too tempting a pickup opportunity with the possibility voters could break late toward Conway in fear of Rand Paul.  In contrast, Blunt is an establishment Republican, and if you can't tear him down by mid-October, the die is probably cast.  It might be already.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    As a Californian, I agree with this triage ranking (eom)


    [ Parent ]
    As a Californian
    I agree, the California candidates are gonna be fine and should be able to sink or swim on their own. The only place I differ is that I would cut off Conway before Carnahan. Three reasons: first, I would rather have Rand Paul, crazy as he is, in the Senate over Roy Blunt. I'd expect Paul to pull some crazy stunts from time to time that embarrass Republicans, maybe even vote against them once in awhile on certain issues, and then be radioactive enough to lose re-election (like Jim Bunning would have, had he run). Meanwhile, Blunt is the classic Washington insider and could easily be the second coming of Mitch McConnell, except even more quietly evil and just as effective at bludgeoning moderates into line.

    The second reason is that Carnahan would be more likely to hold her seat for awhile--Missouri is still very much a swingy purple state and Carnahan is a great fit with a vote-attracting name who can defeat even top-tier opponents like Blunt. I just don't see Conway (even though he's a great candidate for Kentucky, and deserves support) being able to win re-election in a state as red as Kentucky, unless he faced another crazy like Paul.

    The third reason would be that the Conway family has serious financial resources at their disposal to somewhat self-fund in a pinch, while the Carnahans aren't so lucky. All that said, we shouldn't cut any of these people off, except for the Californians. Conway & Carnahan both have real chances of winning and the consequences are dire if they don't.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Solid points
    Though with a Senator Rand Paul, we run the risk of him proving to be a full-on... Paulist, for lack of a better word, and making the GOP in general look more attractive to Ron Paul's burgeoning young fan base.  Just as a worst-case scenario, can you imagine him on the Senate floor demanding that Obama pull out of Afghanistan?  I bet both McConnell and Reid would have nightmares about that.  He'd be gone in 2016, of course, but six years is a long time to make an impression on young voters not yet set in their ways.

    I know this is a third-order effect (the downside to the upside to a loss) and relies on him having misrepresented himself when he said he was different from his dad, but it's enough for me to consider the races equal in importance, even though I agree with your second and third reasons.

    (Speaking of your third reason, why don't wealthy Democratic candidates tend to self-fund in the same proportions as wealthy Republicans?  Richard Blumenthal, I'm looking at you too...)


    [ Parent ]
    Sestak still has time
    6-8 points down is easily do-able in a month.

    Cut CA first, Boxer is in the best shape. The others are NOT negoitable at this point, all are winnable.  


    [ Parent ]
    CA without a doubt
    Echoing other posters CA without a doubt you cut back. Carly is not a good candidate in this year's climate and Boxer is a season vet who recognized her threat early. The media buys in CA are crazy expensive too and Boxer should be able to get her message out enough on her own dime. If you are the DSCC you really need to cut back on MO. Blunt is not the best of a candidate but it is a terrible year and while Carnahan is a good recruit the headwinds in that geography are too strong.

    I think that they should expand whatever they are doing in KY and NH as those are the best chances for a pickup. KY because Paul's views make a lot of people quite uncomfortable enough that they are willing to consider Conway. I'm sure that it wouldn't be a component but having McConnell's state go blue would be a nice question that he would have to answer about. NH because it is a state where a Dem infrastructure has existed of late, is a small market and Ayotte has baggage and only won the Republican primary by a whisker due to Palin's endorsement. Additionally, if you can get a higher base turout for Hodes you are going to help Shea-Porter and Kuster which are 2 seats that team blue desperately needs to hang onto to not lose the House.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    [ Parent ]
    Frankly, I'd only remain in Pennsylvania
    I hate to say it, but I don't think Conway, Hodes, or Carnahan really stand a prayer. Boxer, for her part, is the opposite situation, with a bulky-enough lead (probably 7%) to keep Dems from pumping more here. I think Sestak could catch Toomey, but it might be too little, too late.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Like O'Donnell didn't have a prayer?
    But you are probably right.

    [ Parent ]
    Not to be contrarian
    (ok, totally to be contrarian) but I imagine that republican-leaning sights are probably saying the exact opposite things about Missouri/Kentucky and California respectively.

    The pollster.com average of Boxer-Fiorina is 4.5
    The average of Missouri is 6.3

    I realize that Boxer is jumping out as of late (and ad buys are obviously a huge factor), but I don't think I'd categorize the differences between those states and Cali as really all that great.


    Actually, the NRSC already pulled its late CA-Sen ad buy......
    They already signaled retreat in this race.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah I saw that, which partially prompted the question
    that still doesn't mean that those other states are any closer, however.

    It could also be that Fiorina has enough COH herself, I dunno. I just find it hard to believe the Repubs are giving up on California, unless they are giving up on the idea of taking the Senate.


    [ Parent ]
    Probably
    But then again it is so expensive out there and frankly they no longer need to beat Boxer to get control. The current order I see is ND, AR, IN, PA, CO, WI, WV, NV, IL, CT, WA. Those would all fall before CA.

    [ Parent ]
    They're giving up on CA, they have a better path to 10 with different math......
    Even my current math gives them the following 6, in order of likelihood to flip:  ND; AR; IN; WI; PA; CO.

    The next 5 in my order of likelihood to flip is as follows:  IL; WV; CT; WA; NV.

    That's 11 without California, which I would rank right now as no. 12.

    Some comments on my "2nd 5" list:

    Everyone wants to call Nevada a tossup, but really I think Reid is in better shape than even Patty Murray or Dick Blumenthal at this point.

    Blumenthal I put up there obviously because the momentum has been against him, even though he still leads.

    And of course WV has fast reached tossup territory, but I think we're still less likely to lose there than in IL.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Blumenthal is ahead
    by 3 in Quinnipiac with only 4 percent undecided. There aren't a lot of voters left for McMahon to catch up. So she'll need to steal Blumenthal voters to overcome the gap, and over 90% of them say they're committed.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually
    Apparently, it's not the case that the GOP pulled out of CA-Sen.  

    http://www.politico.com/mornin...

    But Republicans say that's simply false, and what really happened is the NRSC switched its $2 million ad buy over to the Fiorina campaign's buyer for practical reasons. "As painful as it might be for ultra-liberal activists across the country to hear, the reality is that Republicans are more confident than ever that Carly Fiorina will defeat Barbara Boxer in November," NRSC communications director Brian Walsh told Morning Score. "And while it's regrettable that otherwise-respectable publications like the Daily Caller and Huffington Post fell for the spin of Democrat Party operatives in Washington, the fact remains that the NRSC has publicly committed more financial resources for Carly Fiorina and Dino Rossi than national Democrats have for Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray. If anything though, this debate highlights the reality that Democrats have effectively cut loose their own candidates in Ohio, New Hampshire, Louisiana, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, and Arkansas - all states where they have yet to commit a single dollar. Of course if they want to dispute that, we're all ears."


    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Wait
    The Republicans called Huffington Post a respectful publication? Waaaa?

    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough
    The rest is nice spin.

    [ Parent ]
    So they continue to have Boucher
    Up big in this R+11 district yet they have Mike McIntyre in a deadheat in his R+5 seat?

    [ Parent ]
    SUSA's AA problem
    Maybe because they have the Republican getting 47% of the AA vote!

    http://www.nccivitas.org/files...

    While they don't report any AAs in the VA-9 poll.


    [ Parent ]
    When did any Republican
    Last get anything like that? Michael Steele got like 20% in 2006 I think.

    [ Parent ]
    Could be
    Nothing new.  If you believe SUSA, Republicans haven't had this much support since the 1950s.

    [ Parent ]
    The 2006 exit poll had Steele at 25% with black voters, which if true...
    ...was thought before the election by GOP strategists to be enough to get him elected.

    But the same exit poll had Steele barely winning whites 52-47, which is worse than the same GOP strategists probably expected.

    This all assumes the exit poll was right.  They're not always right, and they are sometimes provably wrong.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    And this after Boucher voted FOR...
    ...cap-and-trade and the stimulus and TARP, as well as a lot of the less high-profile bills that have conservatives up in arms where Republicans were nearly lock-step "no's."

    Boucher voted no on health care reform and on Wall Street reform, and that was really it.  And there's no mileage on a "no" on Wall Street reform except that by that time hard-core conservatives wanted "no" on everything Democrats did.

    Boucher's record is no more safe in this cycle than so many other Democrats who supposedly are in more trouble than him, and cap-and-trade in particular was supposed to be a silver bullet that did him in.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Which tells you . . . .
    that the health insurance bill is a big negative.  At least in the south.  See also Kissel in NC-8.

    [ Parent ]
    McIntyre voted against it too
    SurveyUSA just don't fill me with the confidence they used to.

    [ Parent ]
    Isn't McIntyre the one
    who attended a prayer vigil to pray against reform?

    [ Parent ]
    You too?
    Are you now falling for the thing where it's the Democrat in the most Republican district to go first? That's not true.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    They have similar voting records
    So in this case yes.

    [ Parent ]
    Tighter than the last one at least
    I suspect it is probably half as close in reality.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree. And also, they now have Feingold down TWELVE!!!......
    They got Ron Johnson up 54-42.  Feingold favorability still OK at 49-48, Obama job approval not so awful at 48-50.  But Feingold still falling behind big.

    Yet another I think is half as close in reality.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    What is going on there?
    Even if you lop off 5 points for Rass bias, he's still down by 7.  Did someone drop the bomb on Madison?  Why is Feingold doing much so worse than other Dem senators in a similar position?

    [ Parent ]
    Midwest
    He's in the Midwest, which is the hardest region for the Dems this cycle.  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    PPP had him down 11.  

    [ Parent ]
    Probably
    But I have a feeling this race will end up either with Conway squeaking out a win or Paul winning by double digits.  

    [ Parent ]
    Any
    Any other year, I think Paul would probably lose - he's too clearly not a native in a state that cares about such things.  Then again, in any other year, he probably wouldn't even have gotten the nomination.  IIRC, KY and IN are the two places that close the polls first.  The election results are going to open with a Dem Sen loss (IN) and very quickly followed by a substantial Paul win.  The Dems may have to stay up late for their best news (CA, WA, NV and AK).

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Cuomo ahead by 15 in Marist poll
    think that race will settle about there.
    57-43 sounds about right. Better than anyone expected out of the NY GOP this year, but more of an annoyance for Cuomo than an actual, serious threat.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    56-40 with leaners
    He might get close to 60 but I suspect no more.

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: DSCC does $300K ad buy for Blumenthal
    For CT,
    that doesn't sound like all that much.

    [ Parent ]
    Certainly not panic stations
    But he needs the boost.

    [ Parent ]

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