Braun Research for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/5-8 [RVs] in parens):
John Adler (D-inc): 41 (31)
Jon Runyan (R): 39 (25)
Peter DeStefano (I): 6 (4)
Undecided: 14 (34)
(MoE: ±5.4%)
Braun offers a number of alternative takes on these numbers, including a sample of just registered voters (which included a “not voting” option), in which Adler beats donkey-powered ex-NFLer Jon Runyan by 40-31. Also note that before including tea-stained indie Peter DeStefano in the mix, Braun tested the race as between Adler, Runyan, and a “Third Party” option; in that match-up, Adler beats Runyan by 44-38. It’s interesting that once a name is plugged into the Third Party column, a dent is made in Adler’s margin. It would help if some of these teabaggers were a little more notorious…
DeStefano isn’t affiliated with any Tea Party group, and they have all disowned him. Apparently no one in any conservative or Republican group in South Jersey had ever heard of him before. Runyan has accused him of being an Adler plant! That would be a problem (if it were true) if the plant causes him to lose the election!
I’m an Eagle fan – I might even root for Runyan even if he was a Democrat! Really, this comes down to the size of the wave. A small one doesn’t reach Adler. Anything above a mid-sized one washes Runyan into office.
This was nowhere near the top of my list of potential pickups–I thought Runyan was an ill-advised substitute for a “real” candidate who could give Adler a good run.
There was the Zogby poll from earlier this week that showed Adler up 38-30–I take it it never made the front page because Zogby is persona non grata around here?
Adler 42-39.
http://www.app.com/article/201…