Sen. John Warner will announce tomorrow at the University of Virginia whether or not he intends to seek a sixth term, according to two top Virginia sources. Warner is planning a 2 p.m. news conference on the grounds of the Charlottesville, Va., school, where he took his law degree over 50 years ago. The Virginian will give his speech near the statue of Thomas Jefferson on the steps of the school's famous Rotunda, adding a fitting Warner flourish to the event.
His office didn't immediately reply to inquiries about his plans.
Virginia and national political officials have been waiting with anticipation for the Warner decision. His retirement would set off a scramble for the open seat, perhaps pitting former Gov. Mark R. Warner against Rep. Thomas M. Davis or former Gov. Jim Gilmore.
Given John Warner's recent calls for a minor scaleback of U.S. troop levels in Iraq, the smart money says that a retirement announcement is in store for us tomorrow. With Tom Davis running for Senate, Democrats would have an excellent shot at picking up his trending-Democratic 11th district House seat (Gore lost this district by 7 points in 2000, but Bush only won it by 1 point four years later). And while Davis' base in the DC suburbs would help him against the Democratic nominee, his profile is no match for former Democratic Governor Mark Warner's. The only question is: will Mark answer the call? Or will he bide his time to accept either running mate status on the Presidential ticket, or take another shot at the Governor's office in 2009--a position that he very enjoyed?
A Senate bid by Gilmore in a hotly contested race could be a bruising battle. The ex-governor likely would face strong competition for the Republican nomination from U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, a Fairfax County moderate who raised about $600,000 in the last quarter.
The state party would have to decide whether to hold a primary election or a convention to decide on a nominee. A convention, which the GOP has traditionally favored in Virginia, would appear to benefit Gilmore because it attracts the party's hard-core conservative base. By contrast, a primary might give the well-financed Davis an edge.
Davis spokesman Brian McNicoll said of Gilmore, "He's won two statewide elections. He certainly couldn't be taken lightly."
Given how utterly disastrous Gilmore's term as Governor was, I warmly invite him to seek his party's nomination.
